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XRPUSDT → Range formation. Retest of resistanceBINANCE:XRPUSDT.P , after a false breakout of the daily resistance level of 3.352 and the elimination of traders, has entered a correction phase. The trading range shown below has been formed, with an emphasis on resistance... XRP previously formed a false breakout of the daily resistance level of 3.352, as indicated in the idea above. After changing its market character, the price entered a correction phase. Focus on the range of 3.00 - 3.264. A retest of resistance (zone of interest and liquidity) is possible before falling to 3.161, 3.05 or to the liquidity zone of 3.00. There are no technical or fundamental reasons for exiting the consolidation; most likely, a retest of the zone of interest may end in manipulation and a pullback to support... Resistance levels: 3.1609, 3.264, 3.352 Support levels: 3.05, 3.00 I do not rule out the fact that a retest of the 3.264 resistance level may have a breakout structure and the price will continue to rise, but based on the price behavior pattern on D1, the market structure, and market stagnation, I conclude that at the moment, the chances of seeing a correction from resistance are higher. Further developments will need to be considered after the retest of key zones on the chart... Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
12
Ethena Bullish Momentum Builds, Eyes 30% Rally to $0.85Hello✌ Let’s analyze Ethena’s upcoming price potential 📈. BINANCE:ENAUSDT has demonstrated strong bullish momentum recently, supported by positive fundamental developments 📈. The price is currently near key daily and Fibonacci support levels. If these hold, a potential 30% upside targeting $0.85 looks likely 🚀. ✨We put love into every post! Your support inspires us 💛 Drop a comment we’d love to hear from you! Thanks , Mad Whale
Long
by MadWhale
1
SPX6900 Bulls Eyeing 33% Surge Toward Explosive $2.60 TargetHello✌ Let’s analyze SPX6900’s upcoming price potential 📈. MEXC:SPXUSDT has maintained strong bullish momentum in recent weeks, supported by a stream of positive fundamentals 📈. The price is currently holding within an ascending channel and resting near daily support. If this level holds, a 33% upside toward the $2.60 target could follow 🚀 ✨We put love into every post! Your support inspires us 💛 Drop a comment we’d love to hear from you! Thanks , Mad Whale
Long
by MadWhale
1
CFX Bulls Eyeing 38% Surge Toward Explosive 0.29 TargetHello✌ Let’s analyze Conflux’s upcoming price potential 📈. BINANCE:CFXUSDT has shown solid bullish momentum recently, supported by a series of positive fundamental catalysts 📈. Price is now approaching a daily support zone that also aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level. If this level holds, I’m expecting a potential move of around 38% to the upside, with a mid-term target near 0.29 . Watching closely for price action confirmation around support before considering entry 🚀. ✨We put love into every post! Your support inspires us 💛 Drop a comment we’d love to hear from you! Thanks , Mad Whale
Long
by MadWhale
Has Geopolitics Clouded Brazil's Market Horizon?The Bovespa Index, Brazil's benchmark stock market index, faces significant headwinds from an unexpected source: escalating geopolitical tensions with the United States. Recent decisions by the US administration to impose a steep 50% tariff on most Brazilian imports, citing the ongoing prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, have introduced considerable uncertainty. This move, framed by the US as a response to perceived "human rights abuses" and an undermining of the rule of law in Brazil's judiciary, marks a departure from conventional trade disputes, intertwining economic policy with internal political affairs. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has firmly rejected this interference, asserting Brazil's sovereignty and its willingness to negotiate trade, but not judicial independence. The economic repercussions of these tariffs are multifaceted. While key sectors like civil aircraft, energy, orange juice, and refined copper have secured exemptions, critical exports such as beef and coffee face the full 50% duty. Brazilian meatpackers anticipate losses exceeding $1 billion, and coffee exporters foresee significant impacts. Goldman Sachs estimates an effective tariff rate of around 30.8% on total Brazilian shipments to the US. Beyond direct trade, the dispute dampens investor confidence, particularly given the US's existing trade surplus with Brazil. The threat of Brazilian retaliation looms, potentially exacerbating economic instability and further impacting the Bovespa. The dispute extends into the technological and high-tech realms, adding another layer of complexity. US sanctions against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversees Bolsonaro's trial, directly link to his judicial orders against social media companies like X and Rumble for alleged disinformation. This raises concerns about digital policy and free speech, with some analysts arguing that regulating major US tech companies constitutes a trade issue given their economic significance. Furthermore, while the aerospace industry (Embraer) received an exemption, the broader impact on high-tech sectors and intellectual property concerns, previously highlighted by the USTR regarding Brazilian patent protection, contribute to a cautious investment environment. These intertwined geopolitical, economic, and technological factors collectively contribute to a volatile outlook for the Bovespa Index.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOVShort
by UDIS_View
BTCUSD Analysis : Major Breakout Setup | Big Move Loading"Bitcoin Coiling Below Key Resistance – Breakout or Trap?" 🔍 Technical Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading within a compressed range, sitting just below a key descending trendline that has capped upside movement for multiple sessions. Price is consolidating between minor highs and lows, hinting at a build-up of momentum for the next breakout move. The setup presents a classic compression inside a bearish wedge, but with increasing bullish pressure evident from higher lows and wick rejections near minor supports. 🧱 Detailed Technical Breakdown: 🔸 1. Descending Trendline Structure Price has formed a downward sloping resistance line from earlier highs. This trendline has acted as a dynamic ceiling, rejecting multiple bullish attempts. Each time price approaches it, the rejection gets weaker, indicating a possible breakout attempt soon. 🔸 2. Multiple Minor & Major Zones Minor Resistance: Around $118,800–$119,200 A short-term ceiling that has paused bullish rallies. Price needs a clean break and close above this to initiate momentum. Major Resistance: ~$121,000–$121,200 This zone aligns with a previous significant swing high. A break above here could result in strong bullish continuation toward ATH levels. Minor Support: ~$117,000 Price has repeatedly bounced from this level. A breakdown would indicate fading bullish strength and open the downside. Major Support: ~$115,000 A historically strong demand zone. If BTC fails all bullish attempts, this would be the final defense for buyers. 🧠 Market Psychology Insight: Price is trapped between aggressive short-term sellers and accumulating buyers. Buyers are placing confidence in this area by defending higher lows. Sellers are still protecting the trendline, but with each retest, the defense weakens. This is a classic equilibrium zone where liquidity is building—once imbalance hits, a strong impulsive breakout (either direction) is likely. Volume and momentum should be watched closely as a breakout with confirmation may trap the opposite side, leading to a strong move (short squeeze or long liquidation). 🔮 Scenario Forecasts: 📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario: Price breaks above $119,200 → minor resistance flips to support Retest of the broken trendline confirms a bullish breakout Price targets: First Target: $121,000–$121,200 (major resistance) Second Target: $122,500+ Third Target: $123,800–$124,000 (All-Time High) Confirmation Needed: 4H candle close above descending trendline and $119,200 with rising volume. 📉 Bearish Rejection Scenario: Price gets rejected from the trendline or minor resistance zone Breaks below $117,000 minor support Possible targets: First Target: $116,000 (reaction zone) Second Target: $115,000 (major support) A fall below $115,000 could invalidate the bullish buildup and invite strong bearish continuation. This would signal that bulls failed to reclaim control, and sellers maintain market structure dominance. 📌 Key Levels Summary: Type Price Range Significance 🔺 All-Time High $123,800–124,000 Final upside target 🔸 Major Resistance $121,000–121,200 Key breakout level 🔹 Minor Resistance $118,800–119,200 Immediate trendline + local supply 🔹 Minor Support ~$117,000 Local demand base 🔻 Major Support $115,000 Last line of defense for bulls 🧭 Conclusion & Strategy: Bitcoin is approaching a make-or-break zone under a significant descending trendline. Price compression is tightening, and a breakout looks imminent. Traders should stay patient and wait for confirmation—either a breakout and successful retest for longs or a rejection and trendline defense for shorting opportunities. Whether it’s a breakout toward $121K and ATH, or a drop toward $115K support, this setup offers a high-probability trade opportunity for both bulls and bears depending on the confirmation.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
XAUUSD Analysis : Channel Break, Demand Zone + SR - Interchange"High-Probability Zone Reaction & SR Flip Confirmation" Gold (XAUUSD) is currently reacting from a significant support zone after completing a bearish breakout from a well-established ascending channel. The market structure indicates both threat and opportunity depending on how price behaves around key levels ahead. 🔍 Structure Breakdown & Price Behavior: 🔹 1. Rising Channel Violation Over the past few weeks, price was comfortably moving inside a well-respected ascending channel, making higher highs and higher lows. Recently, however, price broke below the lower boundary, which is often a bearish signal—indicating a possible trend reversal or a deeper correction phase. Such breakdowns suggest buyers are losing control, and bearish sentiment is gaining strength. 🔹 2. Supply Zone Reaction & Drop Before the breakout, we observed a sharp rejection from a high point, triggering a sell-off. The price completed its move into a previously defined supply zone, resulting in a strong bearish impulsive leg that pushed it outside the channel. This move shows clear institutional distribution—where large sellers unloaded positions around that zone. 📍 Key Zone Focus: 🟩 Previous Reversal / Demand Zone (Green Box) Price is now sitting in a historically strong demand zone, which acted as a major reversal point in the past. This area is marked as the first zone of interest where buyers might step back in to defend. The green box represents a liquidity pocket where institutions previously accumulated positions—hence it’s a strong bounce candidate. 🟦 SR Interchange Zone (Blue Box) The next major level above current price is the SR Interchange zone, around 3,320–3,340. This level was previously broken and now acts as resistance. It's crucial because it represents the battle zone where the market will decide whether to continue bearish or shift back bullish. 🧠 Market Psychology & Order Flow Insight: The recent aggressive selling pressure from the highs, followed by a bounce from the demand zone, shows a shift from euphoria to fear. Sellers are active at supply, while buyers are attempting to defend the previous demand. The market is currently in decision mode—and the SR flip zone (3,320–3,340) will be the judge. A break and retest above this level signals strength and potential for a trend resumption. A failure to reclaim it would confirm bearish dominance and open doors for deeper targets. 🔄 Possible Scenarios Ahead: 📈 Scenario 1 – Bullish Rejection & Breakout: If buyers successfully hold the 3,280–3,260 demand zone and push price above the SR Interchange zone, we can expect: 📍 Target 1: 3,360 (mid-term resistance) 📍 Target 2: 3,400–3,420 (previous high & upper trendline) This would confirm a fakeout from the channel and a bullish continuation pattern. 📉 Scenario 2 – Failure at Resistance & Drop Continuation: If price fails to reclaim the interchange zone, expect a retest of the green demand, followed by a potential drop toward: 📍 3,260 – local support 📍 3,240 – major support (unfilled demand below) 📍 3,220–3,200 – ultimate downside target This would solidify a bearish market structure, confirming the sellers are in control. 🧭 Key Levels To Watch: Level Type Price Range Significance Supply Zone ~3,400–3,420 Major institutional selling area SR Interchange (Blue) ~3,320–3,340 Critical resistance / flip zone Current Price ~3,297 Watching reaction for momentum shift Demand Zone (Green) ~3,280–3,260 Key support / bounce zone Major Demand Pending ~3,240–3,220 Next support level if drop continues ✅ Conclusion: Gold is at a critical inflection point. The recent bearish breakout signals weakness, but the current support zone may provide a short-term bullish setup if buyers defend it effectively. A successful reclaim of the SR flip zone will shift sentiment bullish again. Otherwise, a deeper correction is likely. This setup is ideal for both swing and intraday traders—look for confirmation signals at the current support and SR zone before executing trades.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
Has Bitcoin become a "SAFE" asset ? These charts show that...... After we heard the US Federal Reserve hold rates yesterday, Markets Fell some. And Bitcoin joined them for a couple of hours but Look now. While the $ falls, the S&P Falls, GOLD is the traditional haven of safety and we can see how it Rose in Value over the last 12 hours The $ has Fallen over the last 8 hours S&P Stalled for the last 24 hours And the STRONGEST positive moves over the last 12 hours were from BITCOIN rising, though it is taking a breather for the moment. SO, has it become a SAFE HAVEN ? Put it like this. Bitcoin has NOT lost value like it used to when under pressure. We have yet to see what would happen once it reaches its cycle Top. Will it retreat as it has historicaly... But for now, it does seem to be a strong store of Value and remains with potential and likelihood of further rises. The TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP chart below This shows us that the investor market seems Very confident in the Crypto Market,,Just going from strength to strength. The TOTAL 2 Market Cap chart shows us something very interesting. The TOTAL2 chart is the Total Market Cap MINUS BITCOIN Compare the 2 charts and you will see how the TOTAL chart has risen way over its previous cycle ATH but the TOTAL2 is currently being rejected off its previous ATH line. This clearly shows us that BITCOIN is the strength in the Crypto Market. It is the same story on the TOTAL3 chart ( TOTAL minus BTC & ETH ) It is the same on the OTHERS chart ( Top 125 coins minus top 10 by market Cap ) BITCOIN CARRIES THE MARKET These are early days but the Future of Bitcoin does seem VERY good So far this cycle, the largest retrace was -31% This drop was NOT a sharp Drop over a short period of time. It was an expected and controlled drop over 112 days. But the zoomed out version of that chart tells us something VERY GOOD PA has risen above and Tested and held that line of resistance that had rejected PA at Cycle Top ATH in 2017 and 2021. That is a HUGE move and we wait to see if we Hold and move higher away from this line. SO, Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven ? It is certainly looking more and more like it. PA is secure, has held position well and is in Price discovery...slowly and with caution...but always moving forward. The traditional 4 yeat Cycle would end in late Q4 this year and so we have to wait and see what happens then. But Bitcoin PA has moved into New ground on so many fronts now. The traditinal BEAR market may not appear, in which case, YES, Bitcoin could become a New SAFE HAVEN Buy Bitcoin Hold Bitcoin
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC #This is a 15-minute Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart showingThis is a 15-minute Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart showing a potential bullish breakout scenario. Price has broken above a key resistance zone (gray shaded area) and is forming a possible bullish continuation pattern (ABCD structure). The red projection indicates a bullish price target towards the 119,750–120,000 USD resistance area (blue line). Confirmation of breakout and sustained momentum above the gray zone would validate the bullish outlook. thanking you
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Abdulkaleem
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 31, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The pound remains under pressure as consumer spending and the labor market in the UK are weakening, reducing the likelihood of an aggressive response from the Bank of England. Core inflation has dropped to 3.3% y/y – the lowest in two years – allowing the regulator to keep rates steady for longer. External factors are also unfavorable: demand for the defensive dollar is strengthening ahead of the FOMC meeting, and the yield spread between 10-year gilts and USTs has narrowed to 115 basis points – the lowest since March, stimulating flows into the dollar. Additional negative dynamics come from the rise in the UK current account deficit to 3.9% of GDP, amid higher prices for imported energy and declining exports of services. Expectations of tighter fiscal consolidation are increasing fiscal risks and encouraging investors to reduce long GBP positions. Risks to the bearish outlook are limited: these would be a surprise in the form of hawkish Bank of England comments or a sharp deterioration in US macro data that could weaken the dollar. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.32700, SL 1.32900, TP 1.31700
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD: Double Top Pattern Ahead of FOMC MeetingEURUSD: Double Top Pattern Ahead of FOMC Meeting EURUSD has formed a possible double top, and price action is now trading below the neckline - an indication of increasing bearish probability. All eyes are on today's FOMC and the interest rate decision. If the Fed signals a rate cut or hints at future easing, this could trigger a sell-off, further validating the bearish scenario. Although the USD has been weak for an extended period, the market may be changing its positioning this time. Even if EURUSD moves higher during the event, the broader setup favors a decline. ⚠️ Trading around major news events is very risky. It's better to wait for clarity after the FOMC before taking any action. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
34
Ethereum: Bullish Momentum Recharging for the Next Leg UpEthereum: Bullish Momentum Recharging for the Next Leg Up Daily Perspective on ETH Ethereum remains in a clear bullish trend on the daily chart. The long and consistent green waves reflect strong upward momentum over the past several days and weeks. Looking left on the chart, ETH previously made several corrective moves during bearish phases. The current correction looks similar to those on the left side of the chart, but this time it is taking place within an uptrend. The price is currently in a consolidation phase, likely preparing for another push higher. I’m watching three key upside targets: 4500, 4840, and 5400. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
Long
by KlejdiCuni
10
GBPUSD extends to the downside. Wait for retest to sell✏️ OANDA:GBPUSD confirms the downtrend by breaking the trendline. The downtrend is still extending to lower areas because the GBPUSD bearish wave structure is very beautiful. Some selling momentum appears around the breakout zone of 1.339, which will form a bearish structure towards the support of 1.287 in the near future. Putting faith in the trendline at the moment is reliable. 📉 Key Levels SELL zone 1.339-1.341 SELL DCA trigger: Break and trading bellow 1.317 Target 1.287 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Short
by VHT_Trader
2
Trump Tightens the Grip, the IBEX Holds FirmWill the IBEX 35 End July at New Highs? Futures Point Up Despite Tariff Threat By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The IBEX 35 could end July near record highs following a strong opening across European markets. At 08:10 CET, futures on the Spanish benchmark were up 0.54% to 14,445 points, showing more strength than their peers: Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.22%, the German DAX 0.28%, and the UK FTSE 100 0.07%. This upward momentum comes despite a growing international risk: U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 15% tariff on all imports from Europe, including industrial, agricultural, pharmaceutical, and luxury goods. Fortunately, Europe has chosen not to escalate the conflict by imposing additional tariffs beyond those already in place. A tit-for-tat scenario could have pushed European inflation higher — something the ECB governance is keen to avoid. Potential Impact on the IBEX 35 The tariff decision introduces uncertainty for key sectors within the IBEX 35, especially those with strong international exposure such as Inditex, Grifols, IAG, Acerinox, and Gestamp, which could face margin pressure and weaker exports. In the short term, the outcome will depend on the European Commission’s response, which is already considering coordinated countermeasures. Still, investors appeared optimistic in early trading, focusing on a solid round of earnings from Spanish companies. Meliá, Viscofan, PharmaMar, Sanjosé, and Inmobiliaria del Sur posted strong first-half results, lending support to the index. On the downside, BBVA reported a 2% drop in quarterly net profit, and the Bank of Spain has reduced its systemic buffer requirement for the bank. Technical Analysis The IBEX 35 is trading near its key resistance level at 14,500 points. A monthly close above that level would confirm a breakout from annual highs, potentially opening the path to 14,800 points. However, the tariff threat could bring short-term volatility. Since late May, the index has been moving within a price consolidation range, but in the past two sessions it has shown signs of a bullish breakout above the previous high at 14,358 points. The Point of Control (POC) currently lies at 14,000 points, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators and moving average crossovers suggest the current push is backed by the 50-period moving average and an ongoing price expansion. • Supports: POC at 14,000; key support at 13,599 (consolidation zone) • Resistances: At current highs • MACD and RSI: Indicate a growing overbought trend and increasing bullish volume Despite Trump Tariff Storm Despite the new tariff front opened by Donald Trump, the IBEX 35 displays a resilience worth noting. Backed by solid corporate earnings and favorable technicals, bulls remain at the helm — for now. The risk of a full-scale trade war still looms, but Europe’s decision not to retaliate has eased inflation concerns. And like that brave brigantine that sailed stormy seas, the IBEX remains steady and defiant, unshaken by winds or tempest. “Asia to one side, Europe to the other...” Today, the Spanish index sails toward new highs, hoping to close July with all sails unfurled. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35Q2025Long
by ActivTrades
XAU/USD at Make-or-Break: $3,304 Holds the Key!"XAU/USD is testing a key resistance at $3,304. A breakout could trigger a rally to $3,315, while rejection may lead to a drop to $3,292." Price Action & Key Levels Support: 3,298 → 3,292 (critical demand zone). Resistance: 3,304 → 3,310 (supply zone). Breakout Level: 3,304 (confirmation needed). Indicator-Based Evidence RSI: "RSI at 62 (not overbought), suggesting room for upside." MACD: "MACD histogram is rising, supporting bullish momentum." Moving Averages: *"Price above 9 & 21 EMA, short-term trend bullish." Fundamental Context "Gold is supported by Fed rate cut expectations, but a strong USD could limit gains." "Geopolitical risks (e.g., Middle East tensions) may boost safe-haven demand." Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Entry: Buy above $3,304 (confirmed close). Target: $3,310 → $3,315. Stop-Loss: Below $3,298 (risk management). Scenario 2: Bearish Rejection Entry: Sell below $3,298. Target: $3,292 → $3,288. Stop-Loss: Above $3,306.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by MBharatKumar55
2
EURUSD targeting 1.10 after breaking key supportEURUSD has finally broken below the key 1.15 level, triggering a move lower in line with earlier expectations. The drop follows the US imposing fresh tariffs on European goods, a move that traditionally strengthens the currency of the tariff-imposing nation. Supporting the dollar further, the latest ADP and GDP reports came in stronger than forecast, while the Fed remains hawkish despite pressure from President Trump to cut rates. Inflation is expected to rise as tariffs take effect, giving the Fed reason to stay firm. Technically, EURUSD may still bounce short term but the overall bias is lower. As long as it stays below 1.1653, the bearish case holds. Target zones include 1.10 or even 1.0950, offering a risk-reward ratio close to 3 to 1. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
Short
by ThinkMarkets
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant. CEO Satya Nadella stated “Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.” This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant. If you need a quick summary, here are three main points: 1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period. 2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025. 3. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results. Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter. Overview of today’s insights: - New segmentation. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview. - Key earnings call highlights. - Future areas to monitor. 1. New Segmentation Revised Business Segments In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management. Summary of the main changes - Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment. -Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising. -Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes. -Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together. Impact of These Changes: Core Segments Overview: In summary: - The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly. - The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue. Products and Services Overview: - M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services. - Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category. Additional Insights: - Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed. Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations. 2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance Financial Summary: -Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger. New Product and Services Segmentation Results - Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y). - M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y). - Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision. - Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y). - LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y). - Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y). - Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y). - Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y). - M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y). Core Business Segments Breakdown: - Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption. - Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth. - More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation. Key Observations: - Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y). - Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth. - Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25. - Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25. - Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter. - Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q). - EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y). - Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion. Q2 FY25 Outlook: - Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens. - Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%. - More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro. Main Takeaways: - Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost. - Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25. - Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4. - Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points. - Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected. - Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases. Earnings Call Highlights: Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake. AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y. M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly. LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends. Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6 Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth. 4. Future Outlook Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably. Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start. Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry. For further analysis stay tuned
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
Gold Faces Strong Rejection Below $3,365 – Bearish Wave Ahead?Gold is currently trading around $3,359, showing signs of exhaustion after climbing from the $3,248 low. The chart illustrates a textbook scenario of channel rejection after testing the upper boundary of the descending wedge and failing to break above the $3,365–$3,392 resistance zone. Price is now hovering just below the diagonal black trendline, indicating a potential lower high formation and setting up for another bearish wave. 📌 Key Technical Highlights Resistance Zone: $3,365–$3,392 This area marks the confluence of the black long-term trendline, the top of the descending purple channel, and the previous high at $3,392. Price attempted a "Possible Retest" as annotated on the chart and is now starting to pull back—showing signs of bearish rejection. Bearish Scenario (Blue Arrows): Multiple downward arrows show likely bearish paths if the current resistance holds. Key short-term targets: $3,337, $3,320, $3,303, Strong support at $3,293–$3,248 Further downside may test extension levels toward $3,220–$3,200 by early August if momentum builds. ⚠️ Bearish Confirmation Criteria Failure to close above $3,365 (black trendline) Breakdown below $3,337 followed by $3,320 Strong selling pressure supported by fundamentals (e.g. USD strength, Fed hawkish stance) ✅ Invalidation / Bullish Outlook A decisive breakout and close above $3,392.73 would invalidate the bearish structure. In that case, targets would shift toward: $3,412, $3,434, $3,490 (long-term trendline intersection) However, today's U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) release adds a layer of volatility and potential trend disruption, making this a high-risk trading day. 📊 CPI News Impact – What to Watch High CPI (Stronger than forecast): - Increases expectations of further Fed tightening → strengthens USD → bearish for gold - Likely scenario: sharp drop toward $3,337 → $3,320 → $3,293 Low CPI (Weaker than forecast): - Signals disinflation → weakens USD → bullish for gold - Possible breakout above $3,365 → retest of $3,392 → if broken, target $3,412 and $3,434 Neutral or as expected CPI: - Likely leads to whipsaw — fakeout on both sides - Caution advised — wait for candle close confirmations post-news Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold Price Update – Testing Key ResistanceGold is currently trading around 3367, showing strong bullish momentum as it continues to form higher lows, which indicates an ongoing uptrend. The market structure is developing inside a rising wedge pattern, with the price consistently respecting both the ascending support and resistance lines. Gold is now testing a key resistance zone between 3376 and 3450, an area that previously acted as a major supply zone and caused sharp rejections. A successful breakout and close above 3450 will likely confirm a bullish continuation and may open the door for a rally toward 3500 and possibly 3580. However, if gold fails to break this level, it could retrace back to the 3300 or 3250 support zones, especially if a rejection candle forms in the daily timeframe. 📊 Key Technical Highlights: - Price has approached the upper resistance boundary of the wedge. - Daily candle is bullish, indicating strong buying momentum. - However, unless price closes above 3,376–3,450, there’s still a risk of rejection from the top channel and a pullback toward 3,300–3,250. 🔑 Key levels to watch: - Gold is currently trading around $3,367, just below a crucial horizontal resistance at $3,376 - A strong breakout above $3,376, and especially above $3,450, could open the door for further bullish movement toward the $3,500–$3,600 range, following the upper trendline of the ascending channel. - On the downside, if price fails to hold the higher low at $3,252, a drop toward $3,200 or even $3,100 is possible aligning with the downward red trendline. - The structure remains bullish overall, as price is still making higher lows and staying within the rising channel 📊 Weekly Gold Chart Analysis Gold is currently trading around $3,368, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly timeframe. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation before a potential breakout in either direction. The price is getting squeezed between lower highs and higher lows, which is a sign of decreasing volatility and approaching breakout. 🔑 Key Technical Insights: - ✅ Current Structure: Price has been consolidating within a triangle since April 2025 after a strong upward move. It is now near the apex of the triangle, suggesting a breakout is imminent—most likely in the next 1–2 weeks. 🔼 Bullish Breakout: - If gold breaks above the triangle resistance (~$3,385–$3,393), it could trigger a sharp rally. - Upside targets post-breakout: $3,450, $3,500, $3,600+ (if momentum continues) 🔽 Bearish Breakdown: - A break below the triangle support (~$3,335–$3,325) may lead to a deeper correction. - Downside targets post-breakdown: $3,285, $3,200 - Possibly $3,100–$3,050 if bearish sentiment intensifies 📉 Volume Drop: As typical with triangles, volume has likely decreased, signaling indecision. Once volume returns, it will likely confirm the breakout direction. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh