Tesla - This bullish break and retest!Tesla - NASDAQ:TSLA - confirmed the bullish reversal:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Tesla recently created a very bullish break and retest. Therefore together with the monthly bullish price action, the recent rally was totally expected. But despite the short term volatility, Tesla remains bullish, is heading higher and will soon create new highs.
Levels to watch: $400
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Fundamental Analysis
7/2/25 - $corz - Have we forgotten...?7/2/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CORZ
Have we forgotten...?
- there's a possible deal happening here
- btc is ripping and so your downside beta is probably somewhat stagnant from the deal bid
- and then you just have natural rip on all energy/ hpc-btc complex stuff beta ripping
- nevermind the actual announcement potential
- bankers like to not work in july and especially august
- so *if* there is a deal here, my guess is it's probably communicated one way or the other sooner v later
- how quickly the market is ready to bid other chitco miners and not the one w/ the most tangible deal potential in the ST
but you do you. keep buying qubt and sym... enjoy
i'll stick to the high signal, better r/r on s/t like this
and for the degen stuff... well i've written about a few others today that are interesting setups far superior to the softbank and retail memes i denote above in this para.
check out $btcs... lmk what u think
but in the meanwhile. i still like this bitcoin beta w/ a deal backstop
V
7/2/25 - $btcs - Given sbet and bmnr... this?7/2/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BTCS
Given sbet and bmnr... this?
- 14,600 eth = 35 mm usd? and mkt cap is like 50... so that's another 1.5 mnav
- it's even smaller, no options... and we see what low float stuff does lately
- add to this the "comps" (quotes b/c this one is substantially smaller) like sbet and bmnr have run (and continue to run today)
- nevermind this has an actual software biz associated w it (and hold your nose if analyst recommendation for growth are adequate for revenue)... but there's something else here
- and their metamask "partnership" whatever that means.
i think this one could run substantially if sbet and bmnr keep up the whacky action (fortunately we're doing well on sbet at the moment)
V
GOLD 4H: structure broken - phase reversal beginsTwo key directional signals were recorded on the gold chart: first, a breakdown of the ascending channel, followed by a confident downward exit from the triangle with a clear fixation under the $3297 boundary. Both figures worked independently, but consistently - and strengthened the impulse towards selling.
The price has already gone beyond the lower boundary of the triangle ($3297), confirming the bearish scenario. Candlesticks closing under the level and local consolidation from below is a characteristic formation before the momentum continues.
Technical parameters:
- Channel breakout: completed
- Triangle breakout: $3297 level
- Retest from below: expected as confirmation
- EMAs reversed downwards, structure broken
- Volumes strengthened at the moment of breakout
Tactical plan:
- Sell after retest of $3297
- Targets on the move: $3248 and $3201
- Stop: above $3305 (above the area of false outs).
The current structure indicates the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the downward momentum. As long as the price holds below $3297 - shorts are the priority.
Sol Strategies Inc (HODL) - Inverse H&S🚀 SOL Strategies (HODL) – Public Market Gateway to Solana Yield
SOL Strategies (CSE: HODL) is a publicly traded company laser-focused on the Solana ecosystem. With nearly 395,000 SOL held (most of it staked) and over 3.7 million SOL delegated to their validators, they generate consistent income through staking rewards and validator commissions.
Their business model is simple:
📌 Accumulate SOL → Stake it → Run institutional-grade validators → Earn yield
📌 Expand through partnerships (3iQ, Neptune, BitGo, Pudgy Penguins)
📌 Hold strategic Solana ecosystem tokens like JTO and jitoSOL
📌 Operate with SOC 2-certified infrastructure and pursue a Nasdaq listing
SOL Strategies is not just holding crypto – they are building core infrastructure for Solana, giving equity investors direct exposure to staking economics in one of the fastest-growing blockchain networks.
📊 For traders: HODL stock offers a pure-play vehicle for Solana exposure, with an income-generating twist.
⚠️ Always do your own investment research and make your own decisions before investing.
Safe Entry Zone HOODP.High (Previous High) Act as good support level.
Waiting for Buying Power to Stepin at P.High Line.
Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
2- How to Buy Stock:
On 1H TF when Marubozu/PinBar Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in.
Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
How to make accurate layout during gold volatility?Gold maintained a small range of fluctuations and consolidation rhythm today. In the morning, we arranged long orders at 3330-3331 and successfully exited at 3343. Affected by the ADP data, the gold price broke through 3345 and hit 3351. We also arranged short orders in the 3350-3351 area in time and are still holding positions. The focus of the support below is 3325-3315, which is the key position today. As long as this position is maintained, the long position will rebound and rise. Otherwise, it will fall into the battle for support at 3305-3295. In terms of operation, we continue to step back and do more.
From the current analysis of gold trend, the support below focuses on 3325-3315. The main bullish trend remains unchanged. Focus on the long-short watershed position of 3305-3295. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to step back and do more bullish rhythm.
XRP Army - prepare for a 72% crash to 0.6 USD! (lifetime chance)The current price of XRP is 2.19 USD, and I predict a big crash in 2025/2026 to 0.6 USD. Yes, I know you may think that that's completely impossible, especially if you are high on your XRP holdings, but I can assure you that this is going to happen! What can you do?
If you are a hodler, then you need to prepare for your portfolio to drop by 72%. Can you really handle this situation? If not, you need to take some action.
If you are a trader and you still speculate on the price increase, you can consider exiting your position. If you bought before the huge pump, take your profit now.
If you are a trader and you bought after the pump, that means at the TOP, you basically FOMOed-IN. It's time to take a small loss or exit your position at break-even. If you found yourself in one of the situations above, you have some work to do. And you need to do the work as soon as possible, before XRP starts crashing, which can be any day now. Otherwise, I strongly recommend entering a short position on futures on a strong resistance if you want to make money on XRP.
Now, importantly, why do I think XRP will crash? Technically, XRP is in a big range and has been in a range since 2017. Nothing changed at all after the pump; the price is still inside this ascending triangle. After the huge pump, the price created a big FVG (Fair Value GAP), and historically this has been a big issue for XRP because we went down each time and wiped out the GAPs. Don't forget that XRP is something like a bitch coin, it's doing weird moves, and it's always ranging and taking liquidity from traders, like a casino. Smart traders can take advantage of it and trade it, but you need to have a strategy. Right now it's obvious that XRP is going to go down in the next months!
Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
BBD.B Update idea after splitLONG LONG LONG ! Company have a very good future. The company sold the part that produced the trains. And she concentrated all her attention on the production of business jets. Technically, the company's shares look very cool. We tried to hide the technical specifications behind the split, but I have an old graph in my head.)))
BTC short squeeze in the makingMany people believe that BTC is running "too hot," and we're seeing what appears to be a short squeeze. We all know what's next. No one in their right mind will buy at the top, esp. given it's volatility. Some economic events are right around the corner over the next 1-2 weeks which could impact BTC and S&P. Typically, market rallies are short lived, esp. when the fundamentals are out of whack. Unemployment is cooling (remember is a lagging indicator), high # of bankruptcies, housing unaffordability highest in decades, high interest rates, student loans will start making a dent soon...the list goes on. Don't let the Champagne effect fool you! Berkshire stocking up on cash for a reason.
Best of luck and always do your own DD! Staying positive, with a healthy dose of keeping things real.
EUR/USD (6E1!) Nears Critical Monthly Supply ZoneThe EUR/USD futures (6E1!) are currently trading at 1.1858, already inside a key monthly supply zone. With price action approaching higher resistance levels, traders should prepare for potential reversals—especially near the 1.20395 – 1.22710 range, where a major bearish reaction could unfold.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Current Price: 1.1858, testing the lower bounds of a monthly supply zone.
Weekly Supply Areas: Highlighted on the chart, signaling potential selling pressure ahead.
Primary Target Zone for Shorts: 1.21240 – 1.22710 (within the broader 1.20395 – 1.22710 range).
Breakout Scenario: A sustained move above 1.22710 could invalidate the bearish structure, targeting 1.2400+.
COT Report Reveals Market Sentiment Shifts
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows:
Commercials (Smart Money): Accumulating bearish positions, suggesting institutional hedging at these levels.
Non-Commercials (Large Speculators): Still bullish but stagnant—no major additions or reductions in exposure.
Retail Traders: Remain bullish, often a contrarian signal when Commercials are increasing shorts.
This setup suggests that while momentum is still upward, the lack of new buying from Non-Commercials and Commercials increasing shorts could lead to a reversal.
Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) – Global Growth & Monetization TailwindsCompany Snapshot:
Reddit NYSE:RDDT is a community-centric social media platform, uniquely positioned through user-generated content and authentic engagement. With over 100,000 active communities, Reddit is a magnet for targeted brand advertising and premium ad formats.
Key Catalysts:
AI-Driven International Expansion 🌐
Launched AI-powered post translation in 35+ countries, including Brazil, Germany, and Italy.
This unlocks new audiences and ad monetization in high-growth global markets.
High Margin Business Model 💸
Reported a 90.5% gross margin—highlighting Reddit’s asset-light infrastructure and operational efficiency.
Sets the stage for significant operating leverage as revenue scales.
Ad Revenue Acceleration 📊
Brands increasingly view Reddit as a premium ad environment, given its contextual targeting and deep user engagement.
Expanding tools for advertisers (e.g., Dynamic Product Ads) may enhance monetization per user.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Entry Zone: Above $120.00–$122.00
Upside Target: $190.00–$195.00, supported by global reach, margin strength, and ad revenue tailwinds.
🧠 Reddit isn’t just a social platform—it’s a monetizable network of influence, fueled by community trust and scalable technology.
#Reddit #RDDT #SocialMediaStocks #AIExpansion #GrossMargin #AdTech #CommunityEngagement #TechStocks #Bullish #DigitalAds #UserGeneratedContent #GlobalGrowth #FreeCashFlow #GrowthStocks
Trump threatens tariff on Japan as deadline looms, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is negative ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.06, up 0.47%.
The US and Japan are racing to reach a trade deal before a deadline of July 9. There are some serious roadblocks to a deal, including the current US tariff of 25% on Japanese cars and opening Japan's agricultural sector, particularly rice. President Trump has insisted that Japan import American-grown rice, but the Japanese government says that is unacceptable.
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akawaza said earlier this week that Japan would not "sacrifice the agricultural sector", while Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said that foreign rice imports would threaten Japan's food security.
It's a shortened week in the US due to the Fourth of July holiday on Friday. The US will release the June employment report on Thursday, with all eyes on nonfarm payrolls.
Nonfarm payrolls eased slightly in May to 137 thousand from 147 thousand and the downward trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 110 thousand for June. This would mark the weakest pace of job growth since 2020, with the exception of a meltdown in job growth in Oct. 2024.
The Federal Reserve will also be monitoring the nonfarm payroll report. The US labor market has been weakening and the Fed is concerned that the jobs market could show a sharp deterioration. Currently, the most likely date for the next Fed rare cut is September, but a soft NFP reading south of 90 thousand would boost the case for a cut at the July 30 meeting.
The Fed has maintained a wait-and-see stance since Nov. 2024 but that is expected to change in the fourth quarter, where we could see up three rate cuts.
Gold Trading Strategy February 7✏️As expected from the analysis, after the D1 candle showed buying pressure again, the price continued its uptrend yesterday and reached 3357.
Currently, the price is consolidating within a relatively wide sideways range, extending from 3328 to 3344.
A trend-following trading strategy will be set up when the price breaks out of this range.
The BUY signal is expected to bring good profits if the price retests the support.
The SELL signal at resistance is considered to look for rebound points in an uptrend.
📈 Key Levels
Breakout Range: 3344-3328
Support: 3310-3298
Resistance: 3368-3386
📊 Recommended Trade Setups
BUY: 3310-3308 | SL: 3305
SELL: 3368-3370 | SL: 3373
Gold price analysis July 2As expected, after the D1 candle showed the return of buying power, yesterday's trading session saw the price continue its upward trend and reach 3357.
Currently, the market is in an accumulation phase with a fairly wide range, fluctuating from 3328 to 3344. This is an important price zone, acting as a "sideway box" waiting for a breakout.
The priority strategy at this time is still trend trading - activated when the price breaks out of the above accumulation zone.
BUY orders will have a high probability of success if the price adjusts and retests the Support or Resistance zones that have just been broken, then forms a confirmation signal.
Meanwhile, SELL orders around resistance should only be considered a recovery strategy in an uptrend - requiring strict risk management and short-term profit expectations.
Breakout Range: 3328 – 3344
Support: 3310 – 3298
Resistance: 3368 – 3386
Safe Entry Place ATAINote: Watch with 1h TF for better details.
Stock Current Movement Up.
Due to recent good news.
P.High Lines (Previous High) Consider as Strong Support.
Also My Beloved CAthie Wood BEST INVESTOR All Time (based on statics better than Warren Buffet Entire Histroy) Is BUYING!
Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
2- How to Buy Stock:
On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in.
Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the
Note: ATAI represents a compelling high-risk, high-reward opportunity.
7/2/25 - $sbet - Another way to juice sbet orange7/2/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SBET
Another way to juice sbet orange
- in this giddy money printer go brr expectation tape and back to ATH on the index, it's an interesting point to look for names where you'd own it... but where it might be non-obvious and where IV is high
- as a point of reference, take $sbet. 1.5x mnav ETH treasury w/ some gaming ops, biggest treasury outside of eth foundation, eth is probably actually underwrite-able (not a word i know) from a convert/ perferred perspective, where a treasury *really* gets yield on it's stack
- I can sell the $10 strike aug 15 calls for $1.8 rn (and have started doing this, most of that volume today is me lol)
- point here is...
1/ i think in the next 6-18 mo. ETH will be probably $4-5k. does this mean it doesn't go to $1.5-2k in the meanwhile? and this thing could trade at 1x mnav in the immediate term? if that were the case, say $2.5k eth (so -20% plus or minus) and then 1.5x mnav to 1x mnav = another 30% on top of this. so you're looking at -50% (or more) so a $5/shr stock. would i buy it there? hell yeah. bottom w/ upside leverage w/o any expiry. it's like a call option that never expires at that point
- but in the meanwhile... do i have conviction this thing apes higher to the teens? 20s? no way jose.
- so i can buy a pile of shares here at $9.5, "sell" $10 strike for $1.8/shr and collect about 20% (1.8/9.5) for a month and a half. if thing goes to 20s... oh well, i am able to take bigger size at this stage than i'd otherwise be willing to take... bc my basis goes to $7.7/shr (9.5-1.8) and therefore my "downside" is a more reasonable 35%
- "V 35% downside is horrendous"
- lol - welcome to my probability mindset. I don't mind 20-40% max drawdown if i have visibility to multiple X's and also believe i would be adding in that drawdown instead of saying "shoot need to cut" ... and thinking it could do -60% or more on my basis. i don't ever like putting myself in a situation where i require more than 1x to breakeven
- therefore, let's play the market marker game. sit on our hands for the next month and a half. collect some premium. wish the best to our friends at SBET but be a bit unconcerned about the ST price action
V
BTI risk is neutral The BTC risk is still at the mid-7s. With a max of 13 on the risk, that means we are still likely far from the cycle top. There are a few indicators that are nearing top signals (NUPL, RP extension, CVDD extension, PDM), but most indicators are far from their top signals. We had a much needed cool down period for BTC to reset some of the overheated indicators.
NZD JPY long NZD JPY long .. As discussed this morning, I feel the environment supports a 'risk on' trade. Today's US data hasn't altered my view.
I'm leaving the USD alone due to being wary of pre NFP profit taking.
Its a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target. The risk to the trade is negative sentiment or USD liquidity if dollar weakness returns.
I will close the trade before NFP if it's ongoing.
*Arguably the GBP has been a 'catalyst short' opportunity today. But I feel like I'm late to the party on that one.
Please feel free to offer thoughts or questions:
Hash rate capitulationThe hash rate capitulation (HRC) indicator used in the Bitcoin Bottom Indictor (BBI) has fired. The HRC indicator measures the rate of change of the hash rate. Steadily increasing hash rate is a sign of health of the bitcoin network. This indicator uses moving averages (20- and 100-day) of the hash rate to indicate when a decrease in the rate of change is has occurred (i.e., the 20-day MA goes below the 100-day MA). This indicator triggers when the 20-day moving average of the hash rate going below the 100-day moving average. In the past, this indicator has detected local and macro cycle bottoms. It does fire more often than most other bottom indicators, so take it with a grain of salt.
MUSK on TRUMP's Bill | "outrageous, disgusting abomination"Elon Musk’s sided against the latest Trump-backed tax-and-spending package, in a plot twist between the recent partners turned enemies.
Musk called the legislation a “massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill” and a “disgusting abomination,” publicly shaming senators and representatives who backed it.
With such a strong opinion against it one may wonder, is this going to negatively affect Tesla?
Together with this strong reaction, the price has already been trading lower for the past few days.
The administration has defended it as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” insisting it will stimulate growth, even though Elon Musk warned the bill would swell the U.S. budget deficit by roughly $2.3–2.5 trillion over the next decade, calling the added debt “crushingly unsustainable”.
When I first read this, it made me think of Tesla's long generated “green credits”, which in 2024 alone, brought in roughly $2.76 billion. “green credits” (officially, zero-emission or regulatory credits) work by building more clean vehicles than required and selling the excess allowances to other automakers that need them to comply with emissions mandates.
Now I'm no expert on US policy, and so I roped in GPT to help me explain how this new bill implicates TESLA's profit:
Under the Senate’s “big, beautiful” tax-and-spending bill, Tesla’s regulatory-credit business faces two assaults:
❗ Repeal of CAFE- and ZEV-mandates
The bill would eliminate penalties for automakers missing Corporate Average Fuel Economy targets and roll back zero-emission vehicle mandates that currently force legacy manufacturers to buy credits if they fall short. Remove those penalties and mandates, and there’s no structural need for credits—undercutting the very market that funds Tesla’s $2–3 billion-a-year credit-sales business
❗ End of consumer EV tax incentives
By phasing out the $7,500 new-EV credit (and the $4,000 used-EV credit) within months of enactment, the bill dampens U.S. EV demand overall. A smaller EV market means fewer opportunities for Tesla to leverage fleet-wide ZEV regulations against higher-emitting rivals—further squeezing credit prices and volume
Bottom line: Without CAFE/ZEV obligations and with EV purchase subsidies gone, Tesla’s “green-credit” line—a major profit driver in recent quarters—would likely collapse, removing a key buffer against manufacturing and pricing pressures.
This could be the beginning of a bear market for Tesla lasting throughout the rest of the Trump administration.
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NASDAQ:TSLA