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Fundamental Analysis

How the U.S. Election Outcome Could Shape DXY's pathHey Traders! In today’s trading session, we’re closely watching the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 102.800 zone. Recently, DXY has been trending downward but managed to break out of that downtrend, signaling a possible shift in momentum. Right now, it’s in a corrective phase and approaching the retracement level near the 102.800 support and resistance zone. Fundamental Analysis: U.S. Election Impact on the Dollar Today’s election could significantly impact the U.S. dollar, with the outcome likely to shape future economic policies. Here’s how each candidate’s policies might influence DXY: If Trump Wins: A Trump victory is expected to strengthen the dollar. Here’s why: Higher Inflation and Interest Rates: Trump’s policies, including potential tariffs and stricter immigration, are seen as inflationary. Tariffs can increase the cost of imported goods, while reduced immigration may create labor shortages, both driving inflation higher. Federal Reserve’s Stance: Higher inflation would prompt the Fed to reconsider future rate cuts and possibly lean toward raising rates to control inflation. Higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive, as investors seek better returns. Tax Cuts and Economic Boost: Trump’s proposed tax cuts are likely to stimulate economic growth in the short term. A booming economy typically supports a stronger dollar as investors favor a robust market. In this scenario, DXY would likely respond positively, and we could see a strong upward movement. If Harris Wins: On the other hand, a Harris victory could weaken the dollar due to different policy priorities: Lower Inflation and More Fed Flexibility: Harris’s policies are expected to focus more on economic support, potentially through spending programs and fewer tariffs. Lower inflationary pressure gives the Fed more room to keep rates low or even consider cuts. Market Reaction: Investors may anticipate a slower economic rebound, favoring a weaker dollar, as demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar could decrease. Your vote is very important! Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
1
BTC | Price CELEBRATES Trump VictoryBitcoin has increased by 13% after Donald Trump has been declared the next President of the United States, beating rival candidate Kamala Harris. Over the past few months, Trump has claimed to be very open to cryptocurrency and this victory has done nothing short of pushing the price to a new ATH... and climbing! There are two ways in which we can calculate the net major stops; one I have been speaking about since MARCH. This target seems to be the likely next stop for BTC in the short to near term. Time will tell if the new POTUS will be kind or cruel to crypto - remember that time we all rooted for Garry Gensler...? About that... Let's hope this time will be different. If you want to know al little bit more about how ALTSEASON fits into this picture, check out the following idea: _________________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
1
My thoughts, target and trailing method on the gold tradeHello, I have been a gold bull for a while and 6 months ago I posted a long idea. Last week the price has gone way past my target so I think it might be a good idea to post an update. I am going to divide this in 3 parts: - First taking a look back at this trade and the decisions I made - Second I'm going to check what analysts are saying and upwards versus downward potential - And last, based on the previous two points and TA I'll conclude with a trailing methodology 1- If you were able to get in this was a pretty good trade, easy to hold, but I found it really hard to add to it. In the 2300-2400 area I tried buying the pullback but it was too choppy and random for me, which does not happen that often, usual it's more clean. So in the end of all my winners this year this was the worst one, while the Yen was the best one. If you look at the trends it makes sense, the Yen was a "creeper trend" slow and steady with opportunities to add and on top of that it skyrocketed at the end of that trend, while gold was this skyrocket with a crazy correction that went in all directions. Slow and steady always wins in my opinion. The important thing to remember I think here is to not insist, if the market does not want to offer an opportunity, no point insisting and losing 10 times in a row. Fortunately I did not get chopped out. Opposed to that is the following examples on the Yen, it is choppy, but in a good way, there actually are bottoms, and higher lows, it is pretty clean actually when you look carefully. When the market offers gifts, keep pressing your advantage. That simple. 2- So what are the analysts saying and how far could it go? Permabear (and bull on gold) Peter Schiff is calling 10k, but I think we can dismiss this - not saying it won't happen. Analysts are claiming that the commodity to S&P ratio is quite low and we can prepare for a supercycle. The situation is the same that it was a year ago, only it got even better, countries are continuing to move further away from the USD and are looking to buy gold, stock markets just like currencies are still not very reassuring. Rates had increased but they seem to be going back down after all. I see plenty of reasons for the demand to be high, and little reasons for the price shooting down. It does not appear we are in the euphoria stage, or even close, so gold might still be underpriced and there could be a lot of upside left. The price being at all time high, there are no usual resistances, no bagholders that waited 10 years to breakeven, so logically the only wall I can think of is $3000. No reason for a major pullback till then, which does not mean it won't pullback before 3k as I have no crystal ball. All I know is I have thousands of hours of backtesting, experience, and my analysis. 3- From my knowledge this was a trade with a great risk reward and good likelihood of winning, was aiming for 2500 and since we went well past that price without a major pullback - we had minor ones and a moderate one in the 2300-2400 area - my rules say I must consider holding till the next target, which is 3000. A minor to moderate pullback would be 100ish of less, according to the chart below. Trailing my stop with hops of 100 will still give decent risk to reward (at 2700 I'll be risking 100ish to make 300 or better), and at 3000 a stop of 100-200 is worth it as it could go parabolic and I wouldn't be giving much back. But I have no reason to increase my stop size at 3k, the price might drop by a 3rd (1k in this case) like it did the first time it got to $1000, or by nearly 50% like it did the first time it reached $1900. If there is a major pullback I might as well exit and look for an opportunity to take a new trade. It is unlikely I just keep getting "poop patterns" like I have shown in figure 1 up there, and if we do get these choppy random looking patterns that is too bad, knowing when to sit on the sidelines is the name of the game.
TVC:GOLDLong
by MrRenev
RIVN could be an opportunity!Fundamentals : NASDAQ:RIVN is set to report earnings two days after the elections. In a recent podcast with Joe Rogan, presidential candidate Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized his intention to impose tariffs on manufacturers outside of the US. If implemented, these tariffs could give a competitive edge to domestic electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers like NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:RIVN , NYSE:F , NYSE:GM , etc. Increased competition in the EV market could drive consumer adoption, providing more choices and potentially expanding the market share for companies like RIVN. Given its current valuation, and assuming the earnings report—especially revenue—shows resilience, RIVN could present a solid growth opportunity at these levels. Technicals : Following a gap (marked on the chart by an arrow) and recent bearish news, the price quickly filled the gap. For nearly a month, the stock has been consolidating within a tight range of $10–$11. Yesterday, an attempted breakout lacked volume, which aligns with market caution ahead of both the elections and the earnings release. However, a large move in response to the news appears likely, and NASDAQ:RIVN is well-positioned for a strong reaction. The TTM squeeze indicator reflects this setup, with an orange dot signaling that Bollinger Bands are within the first Keltner Channel—a sign of reduced price volatility and increased breakout potential. With downside momentum easing, the setup looks favorable for upside movement. Additionally, the $9.85 support level has held strong since May, further reinforcing this base. Today, I’m watching for a small breakout and a retest of the top range. If that level holds, I’ll go long with near-term profit targets at $13.5–$14.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by benja_g59
10
600pips+ Buy PotentialFollowing our successful sell trade, we've hit the third target at 1.6260. Now, we’re positioning ourselves for a rally to the upside. This setup aligns with a demand level and a liquidity sweep around 1.2642, along with wave formation analysis suggesting we're on track for the fifth wave – potentially the final rally before a significant drop projected in 2025. Price is currently holding at a discount level, giving us an optimal entry point. We're targeting a move of approximately 600 pips, with the first target at 1.6595. Stay tuned for updates on this setup, and remember: patience is part of the strategy.
Long
by Ieios
BTC bullish breakout sets the stageThe past month I recently decided to move all of my chart analysis posts from X over to TradingView, so I'm going to be picking up here where I left off over there. The last time I posted about COINBASE:BTCUSD I was watching the long term cup and handle pattern and how price was reacting to the upper resistance area of the handle. For the most part, price had been holding steady just below resistance ( FWB:67K ) then we got the breakout 2 week ago. At that point we have a confirmed breakout of the pattern. Price did pull back quickly but continued to hold above the breakout level which was a positive since, where it's been holding steady until yesterday... The past day Yesterday's election gave the catalyst to push BTC back up and to new all time highs. That essentially gives us a breakout, pullback and successful backtest of support which further solidifies this large cup and handle pattern. With all of that said we still use proper risk management as traders. Looking ahead As for the bigger picture, I think this sets up BTC for potentially a very large run. Using log targets off the 2021-2024 cup and handle, that gives a price target of just over $300,000. Whether the market will actually reach this target sooner rather than later remains to be seen, but we now have clear parameters to manage our position around. As for invalidation levels, the setup would become at risk if price reversed back below the breakout level in the near term or if price broke below the low of the handle in the long term. To keep the wind under the bulls sails we really want to see price holding above the top of the cup. Fundamentals I typically don't focus on fundamentals since I'm mainly a price action trader, but I think the impact of yesterday's elections can't be ignored. Yesterday's elections were one of the most significant fundamental shifts to the crypto space in years, as we saw a huge number of pro-crypto candidates win their seats (2:1 margin over the anti-crypto candidates). In addition to that we saw the most pro-crypto presidential candidate of our lifetime win the presidency. This will likely mark a new era of pro-crypto policy and the removal of some very powerful anti-crypto people, like Gary Gensler. This overwhelming victory for crypto lines up well with the bullish long term price action we've been seeing forming in BTC over the past year.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by krugman87
Downtrend continues - GOLD downGold (XAU/USD) came under heavy selling pressure ahead of the European market on Wednesday, falling to near $2,700, a near three-week low. With Republican candidate Donald Trump taking the lead in the US presidential race and potentially becoming the 47th president, the dollar has staged a strong rally, triggering a sell-off in gold. Concerns about deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also pushed up US Treasury yields and shifted investors' interest away from non-yielding gold. In addition, the risk appetite shown by the strong rebound in US equity futures suggests that the Aussie could continue to fall against the US dollar. The election result pushed gold back into the 2,700 support range, recovering in correction mode. Still maintain the upcoming gold support zone: 2700-2680 Sell: 2748-2750 SL 2755 TP1: 2740 TP2: 2725 TP3: 2715 Resale support: 2713 Buy: 2700-2702 SL 2695 TP1: 2708 TP2: 2715 TP3: 2730
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ctn5ctn5
GOLD REACHES NEW HEIGHTS AMID RISING SAFE-HAVEN DEMANDUS economic data   Positive news came from the jobless claims, which dropped to 241,000, much lower than expected and down from the revised 260,000 from the previous week. US retail sales also did better than predicted, rising by 0.4% from the month before, compared to an expected 0.3% increase. Nonetheless, positive retail sales and strong jobless claims are unlikely to alter the course of the Fed's monetary policy. ECB rate cut   ECB cuts rates as expected and upcoming months will be crucial as the ECB evaluates economic conditions and decides on its future monetary policy approach. US dollar index-   The US dollar index showed a minor decline due to profit booking.  A break above 104 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.   Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 92.2%, up from 89.50% just a week ago.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DCFX-TA