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Weather and Corn: Understanding the Precipitation Factor1. Introduction: Rain, Grain, and Market Chain Reactions In the world of agricultural commodities, few forces carry as much weight as weather — and when it comes to corn, precipitation is paramount. Unlike temperature, which can have nuanced and sometimes ambiguous effects depending on the growth stage, rainfall exerts a more direct and consistent influence on crop performance. For traders, understanding the role of rainfall in shaping market sentiment and price behavior isn't just an agricultural curiosity — it's a trading edge. This article unpacks the relationship between weekly rainfall levels and corn futures prices. By leveraging normalized weather data and historical returns from Corn Futures (ZC), we aim to translate weather signals into actionable market insights. Whether you're managing large agricultural positions or exploring micro futures like MZC, precipitation patterns can provide vital context for your trades. 2. Corn’s Moisture Dependency Corn is not just sensitive to water — it thrives or suffers because of it. From the moment seeds are planted, the crop enters a delicate dance with precipitation. Too little moisture during the early stages can impair root development. Too much during germination may lead to rot. And during pollination — particularly the tasseling and silking stages — insufficient rainfall can cause the plant to abort kernels, drastically reducing yield. On the other hand, excessive rainfall isn't necessarily beneficial either. Prolonged wet periods can saturate soil, hinder nutrient uptake, and encourage fungal diseases. Farmers in the U.S. Corn Belt — particularly in states like Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska — know this well. A single unexpected weather shift in these regions can send ripple effects across global markets, causing speculators to reassess their positions. For traders, these weather events aren’t just environmental footnotes — they are catalysts that influence prices, volatility, and risk sentiment. And while annual production is important, it's the week-to-week rhythm of the growing season where short-term trades are born. 3. Our Data-Driven Approach: Weekly Rainfall and Corn Returns To understand how rainfall impacts price, we collected and analyzed decades of historical weather and futures data, aligning weekly precipitation totals from major corn-growing regions with weekly returns from Corn Futures (ZC). The weather data was normalized using percentiles for each location and week of the year. We then assigned each weekly observation to one of three precipitation categories: Low rainfall (<25th percentile) Normal rainfall (25th–75th percentile) High rainfall (>75th percentile) We then calculated the weekly percent change in corn futures prices and matched each return to the rainfall category for that week. The result was a dataset that let us measure not just general trends but statistically significant shifts in market behavior based on weather. One key finding stood out: the difference in returns between low-rainfall and high-rainfall weeks was highly significant, with a p-value of approximately 0.0006. 4. What the Numbers Tell Us The results are striking. During low-rainfall weeks, corn futures often posted higher average returns, suggesting that the market responds to early signs of drought with anticipatory price rallies. Traders and institutions appear to adjust positions quickly when weather models hint at below-normal moisture during key growth stages. In contrast, high-rainfall weeks displayed lower returns on average — and greater variability. While rain is essential, excess moisture raises fears of waterlogging, planting delays, and quality issues at harvest. The futures market, ever forward-looking, seems to price in both optimism and concern depending on the volume of rain. Boxplots of these weekly returns reinforce the pattern: drier-than-usual weeks tend to tilt bullish, while wetter periods introduce uncertainty. For discretionary and algorithmic traders alike, this insight opens the door to strategies that incorporate weather forecasts into entry, exit, and risk models. 📊 Boxplot Chart: Weekly corn futures returns plotted against precipitation category (low, normal, high). This visual helps traders grasp how price behavior shifts under varying rainfall conditions. 5. Strategy: How Traders Can Position Themselves With the clear statistical link between rainfall extremes and price behavior in corn futures, the logical next step is applying this insight to real-world trading. One straightforward approach is to incorporate weather forecast models into your weekly market prep. If a key growing region is expected to receive below-normal rainfall, that could serve as a signal for a potential bullish bias in the upcoming trading sessions. This doesn’t mean blindly buying futures on dry weeks, but rather layering this data into a broader trading thesis. For example, traders could combine weather signals with volume surges, technical breakouts, or news sentiment to form confluence-based setups. On the risk management side, understanding how price behaves during extreme weather periods can inform smarter stop-loss placements, position sizing, or even the use of option strategies to protect against unexpected reversals. Additionally, this information becomes particularly valuable during the planting and pollination seasons, when the corn crop is most vulnerable and the market reacts most strongly. Knowing the historical patterns of price behavior in those weeks — and aligning them with current forecast data — offers a clear edge that fundamental and technical analysis alone may not reveal. 🗺️ Global Corn Map Screenshot: A world map highlighting major corn-growing regions with weather overlay. This helps illustrate the geographic variability in rainfall and how it intersects with key production zones. 6. Corn Futures Contracts: Speculating with Flexibility For traders looking to act on this kind of seasonal weather intelligence, CME Group provides two practical tools: the standard-size Corn Futures contract (ZC) and the Micro Corn Futures contract (MZC). Here are some quick key points to remember: Tick size for ZC is ¼ cent (0.0025) per bushel, equating to $12.50 per tick. For MZC, each tick is 0.0050 equating to $2.50 per tick. Standard ZC initial margin is approximately $1,000 and MZC margins are around $100 per contract, though this can vary by broker. Micro contracts are ideal for those who want exposure to corn prices without the capital intensity of full-size contracts. They’re especially helpful for weather-based trades, where your thesis may rely on shorter holding periods, rapid scaling, or position hedging. 7. Conclusion: Rain’s Role in the Corn Trade Precipitation isn’t just a farmer’s concern — it’s a trader’s opportunity. Our analysis shows that weather data, especially rainfall, has a statistically significant relationship with corn futures prices. By normalizing historical precipitation data and matching it to weekly returns, we uncovered a clear pattern: drought stress tends to lift prices, while excessive moisture creates volatility and downside risk. For futures traders, understanding this dynamic adds another layer to market analysis. As part of a broader series, this article is just one piece of a puzzle that spans multiple commodities and weather variables. Stay tuned for our upcoming releases, where we’ll continue exploring how nature’s forces shape the futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
Stablecoins will Supercharge Cryptos AdoptionCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ), #microfutures On June 5th, Circle Internet Group ( NYSE:CRCL ), issuer of the #USDC #stablecoin, debuted its initial public offering at $31 per share. By June 23rd, NYSE:CRCL prices peaked at $298.99, up nearly ten folds in just 13 trading days. At Friday's closing of $180.43, Circle has a market cap at $40.2 billion. Wall Street gave a mindboggling price earnings ratio of 234, based on Circle’s $0.77 earnings per share. How to Invest in Stablecoins Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that aim to maintain price stability. Both USDC and #USDT (issued by #Tether) peg their value to the US dollar. Paying $1 for 1 stablecoin, you will get exactly $1 back in one month, one year, or ten years. Unlike buying Bitcoin, there is no investment return for holding stablecoins. So why would anyone want them? Because stablecoins are not investment instruments, instead, they are payment methods. Like PayPal and Apple Pay, USDT and USDC enable users to move money fast and cheaply globally, but now in the crypto world. How do stablecoin issuers make money? They generate revenue through interest on reserves, transaction fees, lending, and partnerships with financial institutions. • The biggest source of revenue is interest income. When it comes to stablecoin issuers, size matters, and the Fed matters. • Based on a study by Artemis, Castle Island Ventures, and Dragonfly on May 29th, USDT and USDC have a combined market capitalization of over $214 billion. • With the Fed Funds rate averaging above 5% last year, the $214 billion reserve investing in Treasury and other high-quality bonds could yield at least $12 billion between Tether and Circle. • Tether reported 2024 profit of $13 billion, while Circle generated $1.68 billion last year. Investing in stablecoins means buying Circle stock, not converting cash into USDC. The difference is like buying Apple stock vs. adding money in your Apple Pay account. Headwinds and Tailwinds On June 17th, the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act of 2025. It establishes a regulatory framework for the $250 billion market for stablecoins. “Stablecoins are a paradigm-shifting development that can bring our payment system into the 21st century", declared Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, who introduced the bill. With regulatory certainty, real-world utility and adoption will quickly follow. The future for stablecoins is very bright, and I expect the market size to double soon. However, market leaders Tether and Circle both face strong headwinds going forward. • Real world utility brings in fierce competition. Big banks and credit card issuers will create their own stablecoins to keep customers on the book. This will slow down Tether’s and Circle’s efforts to attract mainstream financial investors. • I expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a lot during the remaining 3-1/2 years of the Trump Administration. Some cuts will happen under the current Fed Chair. A lot more will come by his successor beginning June 2026. Lowering interest rates by 100-200 basis points will cripple stablecoin issuers’ main income. In my opinion, the high dependency in growth and interest rate policies make NYSE:CRCL a very risky investment at the current lofty valuation. Bullish Signal for Bitcoin In the past, stablecoins were mainly used by crypto investors. Going forward, mainstream investors will find compelling offerings from their banks, stockbrokers and credit card companies. When mainstream financial intermediaries begin making serious inroad into cryptos, there will be a paradigm shift. In my opinion, the new development in stablecoins will supercharge the growth of crypto market size. Bitcoin, being well established as a Digital Gold, will benefit the most from the global asset reallocation to cryptocurrencies. An investor sharing a bullish view on bitcoin could explore the CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). Last Friday, the August MBT contract (BTCQ5) was settled at 108,640. Each contract has a notional value of 0.1 bitcoin, or a market value of $10,864. To buy or sell 1 contract, trader is required to post an initial margin of $2,598. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 4-to-1, which is more cost-effective that buying bitcoins from any ETF fund. A long MTC strategy with a stop-loss would enhance the returns while limiting the potential losses. Below is a hypothetical trade for illustration purposes only: On Day T+0, buy 1 BTCQ5 at 108,640 and set a stop loss at 105,000 • The portfolio value is 10,864 • Upfront margin is $2,598 Rising Bitcoin Scenario: On Day T+N, Bitcoin goes up 20% to $130,368 • Futures gain will be $2,172.8 (= (130368-108640) x 0.1) • Investment return will be +86.6% (= 2172.8 / 2598), excluding transaction fees • This compares to a 20% gain with bitcoin ETF, with no leverage Falling Bitcoin Scenario: On Day T+N, Bitcoin drops 20% to $86,912 • With a stop-loss at 105,000, losses will be capped at $364 (= (108640-105000) x 0.1) • Investment return will be -14% (= -364 / 2598) • This compares to a 20% loss with bitcoin ETF, with no stoploss provision Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Oversupply Meets Tepid Demand Weighing Down on Soybean MealSoybean meal futures rose in mid-June amid Israel-Iran tensions but retreated after a ceasefire. Even a 129% month-on-month surge in China’s May soybean imports failed to support prices. Spike in import volumes is a consequence of normalisation in customs clearance and a rebound in crushing plant activity. In April, imports plunged to a decade low of 6.08 million metric tonnes due to delayed Brazilian shipments and port congestion. June imports are expected to remain elevated (~12 million tonnes), fuelling oversupply concerns. Rising soybean oil prices, driven by higher crude and seasonal biofuel demand, have led to increased crushing, further boosting meal supply. China’s terminal feed factories are working through high inventories, dampening near-term demand. With China accounting for two-thirds of global bean imports, anaemic demand is a solid bearish price driver. Elevated supply and tepid Chinese demand pose downside risk for soybean meal prices in the near term. TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO BEARISHNESS AS WELL Bearish momentum in soybean meal has strengthened, with prices sliding sharply since 23/Jun. A death cross formed on 25/Jun, as the 21-day Displaced Moving Average (DMA) crossed below the 9-day DMA amplifying bearish sentiments. Additionally, prices fell below the 50-day DMA on 24/Jun and have remained below it, reinforcing the downward trend. Bearish MACD and a weakening RSI signal continued weakening of meal prices. OPTIONS MARKET SIGNAL BULLISHNESS IN THE MEDIUM TERM For the week ending 16/Jun, Managed Money’s net long positioning in soybean meal futures fell by 23.4%, reflecting an 11% drop in longs and an 8.9% rise in shorts. Soybean meal's implied volatility has risen since 25/Jun, with skew picking up from 27/Jun, despite falling prices. This points to rising uncertainty & potential for wider price swings. Source: CME CVOL Option open interest points to muted activity in the near term. However, Overall open-interest put-call-ratio point to bullishness. Source: CME QuikStrike Strong call OI buildup from July to November signals medium-term recovery hopes. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The downtrend in soybean meal futures looks set to persist, with both technical and fundamental signals reinforcing bearish sentiment. While rising IV, skew, and an oversold RSI hint at a possible near-term bounce, any mean reversion is likely to be short-lived without a shift in underlying fundamentals. Seasonally, July–August tends to mark seasonal lows as inventory builds pressure prices further, particularly in China. This paper posits a tactical short on CME Micro Soybean Meal August futures (MZMQ25 expiring on 25th Jul), targeting a decline in prices. Investors can use the CME Micro Soybean Meal Futures, which are sized at one-tenth (10 short tons) of standard contracts (which are 100 short tons). This allows for a cost-effective method to express a short-term bearish stance. As of 27th Jun, the minimum exchange margin on this contract is USD 170 per lot. • Entry: USD 284.5/Short Ton • Potential Profit: USD 264.5/Short Ton (284.5– 264.5= 20) x 10 = USD 200 • Potential Stop-Loss: USD 297/Short Ton (284.5- 297 = -12.5) x 10 = USD 125 • Hypothetical Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.6x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER, the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:MZMQ2025Short
by mintdotfinance
STEEL-NERVE SETUP – ARE WE RE-LIVING GOLD’S 2020 BEAR-TRAP?Retail sentiment is ultra-bearish, positioning is cooling, Silver is outperforming and the S&P 500 is screaming risk-on … exactly the cocktail we saw in June 2020, right before Gold & Silver exploded higher. 1️⃣ WHY THIS FEELS LIKE 2020 AGAIN 2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally) Read-through > 70 % of TradingView ideas are bearish 💬 > 60 % were bearish Crowd may be offsides again Managed-money net-longs -18 % from April peak 📉 -25 % from March peak Powder for fresh longs First monthly ETF outflow (-$1.8 bn) 🚪 Record inflows Capitulation, not euphoria Gold/Silver ratio down to 94 ⚖️ Fell to 95 Silver leadership = bottoming tell S&P 500 at new ATH 📈 S&P at new ATH Risk-on backdrop identical 2️⃣ WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % (2020: -1 %) → smaller monetary tail-wind. Gold already at inflation-adjusted ATH → upside could be shorter & sharper, not a fresh super-cycle (yet). 3️⃣ CHECKLIST FOR A REAL BEAR-TRAP Signal Watch-level Gold holds $3 200–3 250 (100-d SMA + fib) Daily close above zone Gold/Silver ratio breaks < 90 Momentum confirmation CFTC net-longs < 150 k Position flush ETF flows turn positive Fear → FOMO S&P stumbles / vols spike Classic risk-bid for Gold Need 3 of 5 boxes ticked to validate the squeeze thesis. 4️⃣ CATALYST CALENDAR 3 Jul – NFP: sub-75 k print could fire the opening salvo. 9 Jul – Tariff freeze decision: escalation would revive safe-haven demand. 15 Jul – CPI & 30-31 Jul – FOMC: dovish turn + soft data could complete the squeeze. Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinion for educational purposes only; it is not financial advice. Trading futures and commodities involves substantial risk and can lead to total loss of capital—do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified professional before acting.
COMEX:GC1!
by AustrianTradingMachine
1
Gold in a Shifting Macro Landscape Fundamentals First: Why is Gold Falling While DXY is Too? Normally, gold and the U.S. dollar share an inverse relationship (which means, when DXY weakens, gold rises). But recently, this correlation has broken down, and that divergence is a loud macro signal. What’s Happening: Trade Deal Optimism: Headlines suggest the U.S. is nearing a resolution with China and other partners. With reduced geopolitical tension, investors are reallocating from safe-haven assets like gold into risk-on trades like equities and crypto. Iran-Israel Ceasefire: The temporary cooling of conflict has revived risk appetite. Traders are rotating out of war hedges (like gold and oil) and into tech, growth, and EM plays. Real Yields Still Elevated: Despite a softening Fed narrative, U.S. real yields remain positive, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. The fact that gold couldn't rally even as the 10-year note softened post-Moody's downgrade could be telling. My Perspective: This is the first clear signal in months that geopolitical hedging may have peaked. When gold decouples from its safe-haven narrative despite macro uncertainty, that often precedes a structural rotation phase, especially if institutional flows favor equities. Technical Breakdown Gold has broken below its 50-day SMA at $3,322 and is trading in the lower third of its 3-month range. While the daily candles show increasing selling pressure, especially on lower highs (a sign of weakening bullish momentum) RSI : Falling toward 40, with no bullish divergence yet. Support Level : $3,176: Previous swing low Resistance Level : $3,444: previous swing high What This Move Might Be Telling Us When gold sells off on dollar weakness and geopolitical calm, the market isn’t just relaxing. It is rotating. The de-grossing of gold-heavy hedges: Some hedge funds may be taking profit on gold-heavy exposure from Q1’s rally. Rise of risk appetite despite cracks: Markets are forward-pricing trade peace and earnings resilience, possibly too early. Gold might not be in trouble, but it’s on the bench. Unless something reignites fear (e.g., Fed policy mistake, Middle East flashpoint, or economic shock), capital may stay elsewhere.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by JinDao_Tai
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 30 - Jul 04]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply from an opening price of $3,392/oz to a low of $3,255/oz and closed at $3,274/oz. The reason was that Israel and Iran had officially ceased fire, although negotiations with the US remained difficult. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed that there was no rush to cut interest rates due to high inflation risks. In addition, summer is a period of weak demand for physical gold, continuing to put pressure on gold prices. In addition, summer is typically the low season for physical gold demand, which could continue to weigh on gold prices. In addition to the seasonal lull in trading that has affected the gold market, improving economic sentiment as the Trump administration has said there is progress in trade agreements, especially the framework agreement on trade with China, will also continue to negatively impact gold prices next week. Thus, gold prices next week may continue to be under downward pressure, but the decline may not be too large as gold prices next week are still supported by some fundamental factors. This week, the US will release the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and the unemployment rate for June. According to forecasts, NFP may reach 120,000 jobs. If NFP increases higher than expected, the FED will continue to delay cutting interest rates, negatively affecting gold prices next week. On the contrary, if NFP drops sharply below 100,000 jobs, it will increase the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates, helping gold prices rise again next week, but not too strongly. 📌Technically, the gold price closed below $3,300/oz this week, which could pave the way for a drop to $3,200/oz next week, or below that to $3,120/oz. If the gold price rebounds above $3,300/oz next week, it could trigger a recovery to $3,330-$3,360/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,246 – 3,228USD Resistance: 3,292 – 3,300USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3178 - 3180⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3174
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
30/06 WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ↗️GOLD PLAN – 30/06: WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ☄️ ✅ Macro Context – Focus on USD Debt and Political Pressure Today marks the final trading day of June, and the U.S. faces a $6 trillion debt maturity from Covid-era borrowings, which may impact USD liquidity and market sentiment. During the Asian session, gold experienced a sharp drop to the 32xx area before bouncing back and is now hovering near last week's close. While the medium-term structure remains bearish, short-term signals suggest a potential reversal and recovery. ✅Political Catalyst: → Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 1%-2%, stating he won’t appoint anyone unwilling to ease policy. → This raises expectations of future rate cuts, which could support gold prices in the near term. ✅ Technical Outlook – Multi-timeframe Structure On the higher timeframes, gold continues to correct lower. However, short-term candles are showing recovery momentum, with buyers absorbing around the 327x zone. Today’s strategy: prioritize short-term BUY setups aligned with the recovery wave. ✔️Key Resistance & Support Levels 🔺Resistance: 3283 – 3291 – 3301 – 3322 🔻Support: 3277 – 3271 – 3259 – 3247 🔖Trade Scenarios ✅Buy Scalping 🔺Entry: 3272 – 3274 🔹SL: 3268 ✔️TP: 3282 – 3288 – 3298 ✅Buy Zone 🔺Entry: 3249 – 3251 🔹SL: 3244 ✔️TP: 3265 – 3282 – 3295 – 3310 💠Sell Scalping 🔺Entry: 3298 – 3300 🔹SL: 3304 ✔️TP: 3292 – 3282 – 3270 💠Sell Zone 🔺Entry: 3327 – 3329 🔹SL: 3333 ✔️TP: 3322 – 3310 – 3298 – 3282 ⚡️ Final Note As this is the month-end session, expect possible volatility driven by USD flows and institutional rebalancing.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Defend Key Support, Eyes on TrendlineTVC:GOLD Gold (XAU/USD) bounced from the $3,261 support zone after briefly dipping to a one-month low around $3,265 in early Asian trade. The rebound came as buyers stepped in at a major demand area, rejecting further downside and suggesting bullish intent. Macro drivers include reduced safe-haven demand following the US-China trade agreement on rare earths and a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, expectations of a Fed rate cut—especially after weaker US consumer spending data—could limit further losses. Technically, OANDA:XAUUSD gold has formed a double bottom around $3,261, and price action now threatens to break above a descending trendline (TL1). A confirmed breakout above minor resistance at $3,283 may open the door toward $3,311 and potentially the upper trendline near $3,330. Key Levels to Watch: Support: $3,261 (defended), $3,250 (monthly low) Resistance: $3,283 (minor), $3,311 (former support turned resistance), $3,330 (TL2 trendline) 📉 Trendlines: TL1 and TL2 still capping upside; breakout would confirm bullish shift If bulls can maintain control above $3,283 and push through the trendline, a broader recovery could follow. However, failure to clear this zone may invite renewed selling pressure. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ATFX_Global
Is Mexico's Peso at the Crossroads?The recent imposition of U.S. sanctions on three Mexican financial institutions - CIBanco, Intercam Banco, and Vector Casa de Bolsa - has ignited a crucial debate over the Mexican peso's stability and the intricate dynamics of U.S.-Mexico relations. Washington accuses these entities of laundering millions for drug cartels and facilitating fentanyl precursor payments, marking the first actions under new anti-fentanyl legislation. While these institutions collectively hold a relatively small portion of Mexico's total banking assets (less than 3%), the move carries significant symbolic weight and prompts a re-evaluation of the peso's outlook. The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, swiftly rejected the allegations, demanding concrete evidence and initiating its investigations, including the temporary regulatory intervention of CIBanco and Intercam to safeguard depositors. Economically, the peso faces a nuanced landscape. Before the sanctions, the Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated remarkable resilience, appreciating significantly against the dollar, bolstered by Mexico's comparatively higher interest rates and robust trade flows with the U.S. However, the recent divergence in monetary policy, with **Banxico** easing rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, now presents a potential headwind for the peso. While analysts generally suggest limited systemic risk to Mexico's broader financial system from these targeted sanctions, the action introduces an element of uncertainty. It raises concerns about potential capital flight, increased compliance costs for other Mexican financial institutions, and a possible erosion of investor confidence, factors that could exert downward pressure on the peso. Geopolitically, these sanctions underscore the escalating U.S. campaign against fentanyl trafficking, now intricately linked with broader trade and security tensions. President Donald Trump's past threats of punitive tariffs on Mexican imports - aimed at curbing drug flows - highlight the volatile nature of this bilateral relationship. The sanctions serve as a potent political message from Washington, signaling its resolve to combat the fentanyl crisis on all fronts, including financial pipelines. This diplomatic friction, coupled with the ongoing complexities of migration and security cooperation, creates a challenging backdrop for the USD/MXN exchange rate. While the U.S. and Mexico maintain a strong intergovernmental relationship, these pressures test the limits of their collaboration and could influence the peso's trajectory in the medium term.
Long
by UDIS_View
JPY225, LONG POSITION 📝 Trade Rationale – Long on JPY225 At the time of entry, JPY225 was trading near the top of the volume profile, a location that often signals potential reversal. However, the order flow and structure pointed to continuation, not rejection. 🔍 DOM Insight The DOM showed more passive buy orders (bids) than sell orders (asks), especially stacked near and below current price. This indicated strong underlying demand, with little resistance above — a sign the market was supported and had room to rise. 📊 Footprint Confirmation There were no signs of buyer exhaustion: Aggressive buyers continued lifting the offer with no stalling. No large buy imbalances were getting absorbed. Delta remained healthy and supportive of higher prices. ✅ Conclusion With the DOM padded below, the footprint showing no fatigue, and structure supporting upward movement, the long trade aligned with buyer control and suggested continuation through highs, not a reversal. ibb.co ibb.co dom and footprint at time of trade
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by shadowhawx027
Gold continues to be weak, but be careful about operations 📣Gold prices fell 2% last Friday, hitting a near one-month low. Optimistic trade-related agreements boosted risk appetite and weakened the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. This week, the market will usher in a group meeting of major central bank governors around the world (Fed Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong). The market will also usher in non-agricultural data. In addition, Powell's remarks on whether to resign may ignite the market this week. Gold prices may fluctuate more around the lower track of the Bollinger Band at $3,270/ounce this week. Technical analysis: Last Friday, the K-line had a lower shadow, and the Bollinger Band did not diverge. It is not easy to go short directly in operation, but wait for the rebound to confirm 3295 and the key resistance of ma5 to be short. 💰 Operation strategy: Rebound to 3280-3283 to go short, target 3270-3265, stop loss 3288-3290
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by labaronAA
1
BTC Shorts Into Q3 | Monthly + Half-Year Candle PressureWe’re entering a pivotal window on the Bitcoin chart, the monthly close, Q2 close, and 6-month candle all lining up. This kind of macro convergence rarely goes unnoticed by the market and often marks major structural shifts. BTC has failed multiple times to break through key highs, and with momentum fading into this close, I’m leaning short heading into Q3. Even if price wants to trend higher later this year, I expect that move to begin from a deeper wick, not from the top of the current range. I’m watching the 103K level closely. A break below it could trigger a swift drop toward 95K, possibly lower depending on how the new monthly opens and reacts. That would line up with the idea of a strong lower wick forming on the new 3M or 6M candle. This isn't a long-term macro short, just a high R setup where structure, timing, and context are aligning. I believe this move starts today or very soon. The next few candles will speak volumes.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by UnTapped-Funds
NZDJPY Technical + Fundamental Short Alignment = Short SetupToday, I want to review the NZDJPY ( OANDA:NZDJPY ) pair short position from a fundamental and technical perspective . It seems to be in a good zone for a short position. Do you agree with me? ---------------------------------------- First, let's look at the fundamentals of NZDJPY. New Zealand (RBNZ): The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the OCR by 25bps in May and hinted at further easing if inflation continues to cool. Recent CPI data has shown clear disinflation trends, increasing the likelihood of more rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Consumer confidence is also declining, and retail sales have been weaker than expected. Japan (BoJ): The Bank of Japan is under growing pressure to tighten monetary policy. Inflation remains above 2%, and market expectations for a rate hike later this year are building. Any shift from ultra-loose policy supports JPY strength, especially against weaker yielders like NZD. Macro Summary: Diverging monetary policies: RBNZ easing, BoJ possibly tightening. NZD weakened by soft data, JPY strengthened by policy expectations. Risk sentiment is currently neutral-to-negative, favoring safe-haven JPY. Conclusion: Short NZDJPY is fundamentally justified. The pair aligns with macro forces: NZD is pressured by rate cuts and weak growth, while JPY is poised to strengthen with upcoming policy shifts. ---------------------------------------- Now let's take a look at the NZDJPY chart on the 4-hour time frame . NZDJPY is currently trading near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . In terms of classic technical analysis , it appears that NZDJPY has successfully formed a Rising Wedge Pattern . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks. Based on the above explanation , I expect NZDJPY to drop to at least 87.159 JPY if the lower line of the Rising Wedge Pattern and the Support zone(86.50 JPY-87.00 JPY) are broken, the second target could be 86.043 JPY . Note: Stop Loss(SL): 88.378 JPY Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. New Zealand Dollar/ Japanese Yen Analyze (NZDJPY), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
1
Altseason, just a thought ! Basically, right now we’re chilling in a major confluence zone — a whole bunch of important levels are stacked right here. We’ve got: The 0.78 Fib retracement holding it down Volume profile support giving us a comfy cushion That good old accumulation support from 2019–2021 saying “welcome back” …just to name a few. IMO, we’re in that sneaky “deviation/manipulation” phase before the real markup begins — a.k.a. altseason is warming up in the locker room. If we actually hit the bull flag target… well, let’s just say the numbers start looking spicy. But hey, let’s not get ahead of ourselves — things can (and probably will) move faster than you think. Alright, that’s the vibe. Let’s see how it plays out. Good night! 😴🚀
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3ESBTCLong
by hhMaxima38
BNB/USDT 1D🕵️‍♂️ General context • Steam: BNB/USDT • Price: 649.52 USDT • Time: 1D (daily interval) • Currently, the reflection is underway after the inheritance, but the technical situation remains uncertain. ⸻ 📈 Trend and market structure • You can see a previous strong drop (visible long red candles). • Currently, reflection is underway to the level of technical resistance (approx. 650–672 USDT). • A medium -term inheritance trend is still in force - marked with an orange interrupted line of decreasing (inheritance) trend. ⸻ 📊 Technical levels 🔹 Opora (green levels): 1. 651.01 USDT - the first tested resistance (current price right next to it). 2. 672.68 USDT - another resistance, above SMA (2), historically strong level of sales. 3. 700.81 USDT - strong psychological and technical level, tested in the past. 🔻 Support (red levels): 1. 636.40 USDT - short -term support (price maintaining just above this level). 2. 625.65 USDT - key support - if it is broken, a possible test of lower levels. 3. 607.62 and 595.27 USDT - subsequent support, where purchases appeared earlier (Long Knoty). ⸻ 📉 Technical indicators 🔵 MacD • Histogram comes out of red - a potential signal of Momentum change to upward. • The MacD line begins to turn up to the signal line - possible Bullly Crossover soon (buy signal). 🟣 RSI • RSI oscillates around line 40-50-it is a neutral zone with a slight tilt down, but RSI-Based has a possible reflection. • Lack of purchase or sale - suggests that traffic can go both ways. ⸻ 🔃 Medium walking (SMAS) • The price is tested by several medium (green, red, blue line): • SMA (1) and SMA (5) are similar and flat - no clear short -term trend. • SMA (2) acts as a strong resistance at 672 USDT. • Need to break out over 672.68 to recognize that the trend can turn around. ⸻ ✅ Applications - technical scenarios 🔼 Bullish (upward) scenario: • Crossing the level 651–672 USDT and closing the daily candle above. • Confirmation by RSI> 50 and MacD crossover. • Target: 700–710 USDT. 🔽 Bearish (inheritance) scenario: • Price rejection with current resistance and descent below 636 → 625 USDT. • If 625 falls, a possible drop in around 607/595 USDT. • RSI may then fall into the sale zone. ⸻ 🧠 Neutral / swing strategy • Currently, the market in potential consolidation between 625 and 672 USDT. • You can consider: • Buying at the lower consolidation limit (625–636) with a stop-loss below 620. • Short or Take Profit at the upper limit (670+) until it breaks out.
by cryptodailyuk
1
Forex: Weekly Review...USD in the douldrums USD weakness was the stand out theme for the week starting Monday 22 June. Abated Middle East and tariff concerns, softening US data and hawkish FED board members turning dovish, all combined to ensure the dollar was the week's laggard. It's interesting that the EUR and particularly the CHF outshone, which meant AUD CHF went down despite the 'risk on' environment. This could be attributed to general USD liquidity skewing the other currencies against each other, although I did read that the EUR and CHF are benefitting from relatively high holdings of gold. Which is a narrative I'll be keeping an eye on. The president did try to ruffle some tariff feathers on Friday, but currently the market sees any tariff negativity as a buying opportunity. And as the new week begins, I envision last week's themes will remain in place, I wouldn't rule out a 'general risk on' trade. But it's difficult to make a case to short any other currency other than the USD. In other news, I didn't particularly notice any other news. Except perhaps to mention CAD weakness, which I put down to proximity to the US and also the reversal of the Middle East trade (namely the oil price reversing recent gains). There is a case to say a CAD short is viable, but whilst the 4hr swings on USD CAD are heading downwards, it's likely the USD will remain the better short. On a personal note, I only managed one trade. AUD CHF long. Which went sideways for a couple of days before stopping out. Ultimately it turned out a USD short would have been a better option. But at the time I placed the trade, It looked like the dollar was recovering against the CHF and at that point I hadn't read about the possibility CHF is benefitting from the SNB gold reserves. When I realised a USD short would have been better, should I have manually closed the trade and placed a USD short? There is a case to yes. But personally, I'd rather make a decision in the moment...and let that decision play out. Rather than going down the emotional rabbit hole of interfering with the original decision. The higher risk reward per trade will ultimately take care of your account. Personally, from a trading perspective, it was a tough month and I'm glad to see the back of June, as I always say, the only thing that matters is how you move forward. Please feel free to offer any thoughts or questions. Results: Trade 1: AUD CHF -1 Total = -1% Total since start of blog = +39% (risking 1% per trade)
Short
by johnelfedforexblog