Get started

Fundamental Analysis

07/30/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +960 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: still struggling with sleep due to heat waves VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 8:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!✅ — 9:45 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! ✅ — 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!❌ — 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!❌ — 12:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal, ✅ — 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!✅ What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? I have started to noticed that the last 3 days, we have been getting false triggers on market structure signals and it almost feels MM are trying to do it to break people's algo that trade on that. This is a good reminder that no matter how successful the signal has been for the last 30 days, you still need to have risk management. additionally, it's also a good way to test people's faith and trick new traders in going back to doing random things because it makes them think market can behave randomly and nothing works. this is why i always tell people to religiously test out a system for 30 days before giving up. News *FEDERAL RESERVE SKIPS RATE CUT, KEEPS FED FUNDS RATE AT 4.50% What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6410= Bullish, Under 6400= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
AMZN Earnings Play — July 30 (AMC) ## 🚀 AMZN Earnings Play — July 30 (AMC) **💵 High Conviction Call Trade | 85% Confidence** 📈 **Amazon (AMZN)** — Cloud + Consumer Power Combo 🧠 Setup driven by earnings momentum, bullish flow, and macro strength. --- ### 🔍 FUNDAMENTALS SNAPSHOT ✅ **Revenue Growth**: +8.6% TTM ✅ **Margins**: Profit 10.1%, Op 11.8%, Gross 49.2% 🎯 **EPS Beat Streak**: 8/8 with avg. surprise of +34.7% 🔮 **Consensus Target**: \$252.03 (+9.4% upside) 📌 AWS + AI + Cost control = 🔥 upside setup 🟢 **Score: 9/10** --- ### 📊 OPTIONS FLOW SIGNAL 💰 **High OI**: \$232.50, \$240, \$247.50 calls 📈 **Call/Put Ratio**: Bullish Skew 🛡️ **Put Hedging** ≠ Bearishness 📉 Expected Move: \~5% ⚖️ **Gamma Bias**: Bullish above \$240 🟢 **Score: 8/10** --- ### 📉 TECHNICAL SETUP 📍 Price: \$231.01 📈 20D MA: \$226.21 (Support) 📉 RSI: 66.71 (momentum building) 🔒 Resistance: \$242.52 (watch for breakout) 🟢 **Score: 8/10** --- ### 🌐 MACRO TAILWINDS 🧠 AI & Cloud Momentum 🚀 💹 Consumer spending rebound 🔧 Regulatory risk mitigated via diversification 🟢 **Score: 8/10** --- ## 🎯 TRADE IDEA 🟩 **AMZN 08/01 \$247.50 Call** 💸 Entry: \$0.86 🎯 Target: \$2.58 (200%) 🛑 Stop: \$0.43 (50% loss) ⏰ Entry: **July 30 — Pre-close** 📏 Max Risk: \$86 💰 Max Reward: \$258 🧠 IV Crush Defense: Exit 2H post-ER --- ## ⚡️ WHY THIS WORKS ✅ 8-straight beat streak ✅ Fundamentals + Technicals = aligned ✅ Flow + Macro confirm direction 📈 Setup = asymmetrical upside --- 🎯 Tag your earnings sniper crew 📈 #AMZN #EarningsTrade #OptionsFlow #AmazonStock #CloudAI #OptionsStrategy #EarningsPlays #TradingView #SwingTrade #CallOptions #VolatilityTrade #EarningsMomentum
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by quantsignals
Copper: Trump Signs Tariffs on Imports Amid National Security...President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Wednesday that imposes tariffs on copper imports, citing concerns over national security. The White House announced that the new policy will introduce a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and other copper-derived goods that are highly dependent on the metal. These tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on August 1, as outlined in a White House fact sheet. In terms of market dynamics, copper is currently within a monthly demand zone, with a daily demand area also identified for setting pending orders. The potential impact on prices could be twofold: a possible upward movement driven by the discount effect on the metal, or continued decline following President Trump's announcement. What are your thoughts on how these tariffs might influence copper prices moving forward? ✅ Please share your thoughts about HG1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by FOREXN1
4
META Earnings Trade Setup — July 30 (AMC) ## 🧠 META Earnings Trade Setup — July 30 (AMC) 📈 **META (Meta Platforms Inc.)** 💥 **Confidence**: 85% Bullish 💡 **Play Type**: Pre-earnings call option 📊 **Fundamentals + Flow + Setup = High Conviction Swing** --- ### 📊 FUNDAMENTALS SNAPSHOT ✅ **Revenue Growth**: +16.1% YoY ✅ **Profit Margin**: 39.1% ✅ **Gross Margin**: 81.8% 📈 **8/8 EPS Beats** — Avg Surprise: +13% 🧠 **Digital Ad Rebound + AI Integration = Growth Engine** 🟢 **Score: 9/10** 📌 Bottom line: Elite execution + consistent guidance beats --- ### 🔥 OPTIONS FLOW CHECK 💰 **Call Walls**: \$720 / \$730 📈 **Call/Put Skew**: Bullish tilt 🔎 **IV Rank**: 0.65 — High enough for a move, not extreme 📈 **Market Expectation**: \~6% move 🟢 **Score: 8/10** 📌 Institutional flow leans long — smart money eyes upside --- ### 📉 TECHNICAL SETUP 📍 **Price**: \~\$700 📉 RSI: 34.34 → OVERSOLD 📉 20D MA: \$713.27 (near-term bounce target) 📌 Support: \$692.50 | Resistance: \$720 🟡 **Score: 7/10** 📌 Post-consolidation rebound setup into earnings --- ### 🌎 MACRO CONTEXT 💡 Growth + AI names in focus 📢 Communication Sector → Risk-On Rotation 📌 META riding digital ad/AI secular trends 🟢 **Score: 8/10** 📌 Macro tailwinds match company strengths --- ## 🎯 TRADE IDEA **META 08/01 \$730 CALL** 💵 Entry: \$10.00 🎯 Target: \$30.00 (300% ROI) 🛑 Stop: \$5.00 (50% loss cap) ⏰ Entry: Pre-close on July 30 (AMC earnings) 📏 Size: 1 Contract (Risk \$1,000 max) ### ⚖️ Risk/Reward * Max Risk: \$1,000 * Target Profit: \$3,000 * IV Crush Protection: **Exit within 2 hours post-earnings** --- ## 📌 WHY IT WORKS ✅ Meta beats 8 straight quarters ✅ Fundamentals elite ✅ Bullish options stack ✅ Oversold tech setup ⚠️ Risk? Always — but *structured speculation wins* 📐 --- 📣 Tag someone who trades earnings like a sniper 🎯 \#META #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #IVCrush #CallOptions #TechStocks #AIStocks #TradingView #DigitalAds #SwingTrade #StructuredRisk
NASDAQ:METALong
by quantsignals
2
CVNA EARNINGS TRADE IDEA — July 30 (AMC) ## 🚗 CVNA EARNINGS TRADE IDEA — July 30 (AMC) **Carvana (CVNA)** 📊 **Bullish Confidence**: 85% 📈 **Earnings Play Setup** 💣 Big Volatility + Strong History = Explosive Potential --- ### ⚙️ FUNDAMENTALS SNAPSHOT ✅ **Revenue Growth**: +38.3% YoY 🔁 **8/8 EPS Beats** (114.5% avg surprise) 🟡 **Profit Margin**: 2.7% (Thin but improving) ⚠️ **Debt-to-Equity**: 344.78 (High leverage risk) 💬 **Sector Rotation**: Growth favors high-beta names 💡 **Beta**: 3.60 → Big post-earnings swings likely --- ### 📊 OPTIONS FLOW HEATMAP 🔥 Heavy Call Volume @ \$360–\$370 🟢 Bullish OI Stack 📉 Put/Call Skew: CALL DOMINANT 💥 IV Elevated = Lotto ticket pricing --- ### 📈 TECHNICALS 💵 Price: \$336.50 🧱 Resistance: \$343.68 📉 RSI: 44.5 (Neutral – Room to Run) 📊 200D MA: \$252.21 → Long-term bullish positioning --- ### 🔥 TRADE IDEA: **CVNA 08/01 \$360 CALL** 🎯 **Entry**: \$11.25 🚀 **Target**: \$33.75 (200% ROI) 🛑 **Stop**: \$5.60 📊 **Size**: 1 contract ⏰ **Entry Timing**: Pre-Earnings Close (AMC play) --- ### 📉 RISK / REWARD * 🟥 Max Loss: \$11.25 * 🟩 Profit Target: \$33.75 * ⚖️ RR Ratio: 1:3 * 💼 Portfolio Risk: 2–3% --- ### 🧠 STRATEGY INSIGHTS ✅ Historical beat rate = STRONG ✅ Bullish options skew = CONFIRMED ⚠️ High debt = risk, but momentum > fear 📌 Tip: If IV crushes post-earnings, exit fast. This is a *structured speculative play* — not a hold-and-hope. --- 📢 "Speculation is fine. Structure it." 💬 Tag a trader who *YOLOs with stop losses* 👇 \#CVNA #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #TradingView #HighBeta #LottoPlay #RiskManaged #CallOptions #BullishSetup #IVCrushProof #EcommerceStocks #EarningsSeason
NYSE:CVNALong
by quantsignals
7/30/25 - $algn - Beat, but i'm only dip buying7/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ALGN Beat, but i'm only dip buying - 20x PE for growth, leadership position, 5% fwd fcf gen... great - consumer names on mgn doing just fine as we over spend from the mar/apl pullback - a higher cost discretionary purchase? hrm. tough to say. - i think result is +ve and stock is higher. it's health-care-adjacent and not an insurance company or pharma (cough NYSE:NVO ) at-risk industry - any decent result but smaller either "beat" or w/e on the mgn that sends this back toward $180... has me dip buying (though that's not my expectation, just my reaction function - and unless there's a real stink bomb inside the print) V
NASDAQ:ALGNLong
by VROCKSTAR
3
XAUUSD Market Update – July 30 Late NY Recap🔸Macro Context Markets are still digesting Powell’s ongoing speech with no clear pivot signals. While FOMC tone remained cautious, no dovish surprise emerged. Trump’s upcoming comments keep geopolitical risks elevated. USD remains firm. Gold is reacting within key HTF demand as intraday volatility cools off. 🔸Bias Overview Weekly Bias: • Bearish rejection from the major supply wick 3439–3350 • Structure still below 3345, maintaining downside pressure • Weekly RSI cooling off — no bullish divergence yet Daily Bias: • Lower high locked below 3345 • Price reentered the imbalance toward 3272 • Clean structure remains bearish unless we reclaim 3302 H4 Bias: • Lower high formed at 3314 • Current price testing HTF Extreme Demand Base (3289–3272) • Still bearish unless we see a confirmed M15 or H1 BOS from demand 🔸Key Structural Zones 🔺Above Price (3272): • 3289–3294 Decision Block – M30 OB + FVG. First sign of momentum shift if reclaimed. • 3302–3314 Supply Reversal – H1 OB + previous BOS zone. EMA alignment adds pressure. • 3345–3350 Major Rejection Zone – H4 origin of last leg down. Strong resistance area. 🔻Below Price (3272): • 3254–3264 Imbalance + OB – H4 FVG + clean demand zone. Buy setup only on deep flush + reversal PA. • 3227–3214 HTF Demand Base – Daily OB + historical volume shelf. Final structural floor before deeper downside opens. 🔸Battle Plan ▶ Scenario 1 – Bearish Breakout If 3272 fails with momentum and no reversal signs, expect continuation into 3254–3264. No long trades unless BOS confirms. ▶ Scenario 2 – Reactive Long from Demand If price gives a strong reaction from 3272 with BOS on M15 or H1 and clears 3294, then a recovery into 3302 is possible. Only valid with confirmed PA + EMA shift. ▶ Scenario 3 – Choppy Rejection from 3294 If price tests 3294 but fails, watch for rejections back toward 3272. Scalpers can fade reactions if no bullish structure forms. 🔸Final Thoughts Price is once again testing our Extreme Demand Base from July 28 (3289–3272). The zone remains valid — but execution depends entirely on confirmation. Bears still in control unless we reclaim 3302 cleanly. No need to rush. Best RR setups are found at clean structural edges. Patience = profits. —💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments. ❤️ Like if you appreciate the precision. 🔔 Follow GoldFxMinds for more sniper-level updates. With you all the way, — GoldFxMinds 📊 Analysis based on Trade Nation TradingView charts.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
5
Bitcoin's Natural Correction and the $141K Target Based on Fibonhello dear trader and investors The cryptocurrency market is always accompanied by strong fluctuations and natural corrections. Bitcoin, as the market leader, requires corrections and liquidity accumulation after each significant rally to pave the way for higher price targets. In this article, we analyze Fibonacci structures and harmonic patterns to demonstrate that Bitcoin's next target could be $141K. 1. Bitcoin Corrections: A Natural Part of an Uptrend Price corrections in bullish trends are a normal phenomenon that helps shake out weak hands and allows major players to accumulate liquidity. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced 20-30% corrections before resuming its upward trajectory. The current correction is no different and may serve as a base for the next strong move toward higher targets. 2. The $141K Target Based on Fibonacci Fibonacci levels are among the most reliable tools for predicting price targets. Assuming Bitcoin's recent high was around FWB:73K and the ongoing pullback is a healthy retracement, we can use harmonic AB=CD pattern to project potential upside targets. Based on these levels, Bitcoin could reach $141K in the next bullish phase. Confirmation Through Harmonic Patterns Harmonic patterns like Butterfly and Gartley suggest that the current correction is forming a potential reversal structure. If this correction completes within the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone), Bitcoin could see a strong continuation of its uptrend. The Fibonacci ratios in these harmonic structures indicate that the final price target for this bullish wave could be around $141K. Volume and Liquidity: Key Drivers for the Rally Bitcoin needs increased volume and liquidity inflows to reach higher levels. On-chain data shows that trading volumes are rising and large investors (whales) are accumulating rather than selling. This behavior typically precedes a strong bullish move. Bitcoin's current correction is entirely natural, and technical structures suggest that it could be laying the foundation for a new bullish wave. Based on Fibonacci and harmonic pattern analysis, Bitcoin's next major target is around $141K. Traders and investors should consider these levels in their analysis and avoid emotional decisions during market corrections good luck mehdi
Long
by mehdi_kb
APLD (Applied Digital):EARNINGS TRADE SETUP (2025-07-30) 🚨 **EARNINGS TRADE SETUP: APLD (Applied Digital)** 🗓️ Earnings: **July 31 (AMC)** 💥 Confidence: **65% Moderate Bullish** 🔥 Recent Run: **+94% past 3 months** 🧠 AI Infrastructure Hype + High IV = Opportunity --- ### 📊 FUNDAMENTALS SNAPSHOT 🟢 **Revenue Growth**: +22.1% YoY 🔴 **Profit Margin**: -110.4% 🔴 **Operating Margin**: -34.7% ⚠️ Historical EPS Beat Rate: **12% only** 📈 Analyst Target: **\$14.61** (+42.8% upside) 🔎 **Verdict**: High growth, deep losses — speculative with upside --- ### 🧠 OPTIONS FLOW 💣 **High IV Crush Risk** 🟥 **Put Wall**: \$10.00 (6,700 contracts) 🟩 **Speculative Calls**: \$10.50 & \$11.00 loaded ⚖️ Mixed Sentiment → Tilted Bullish --- ### 📉 TECHNICAL CHECK 💹 Price: **\$10.12** 📉 Below 20D MA (\$10.31) 📌 Support: **\$10.00** 📌 Resistance: **\$10.50** ⚠️ RSI Cooling → Watch for breakout or rejection --- ### 💥 TRADE IDEA **🎯 Call Option — Strike \$10.50 — Exp 08/01** 💵 Entry: \$0.57 🚀 Profit Target: \$2.28 (200–400% ROI zone) 🛑 Stop Loss: \$0.285 📈 Size: 1 contract (2% of portfolio) 🕓 Exit: 1–2 hours post earnings to avoid IV crush --- ### 🧠 TRADE LOGIC Risky setup — but technicals + AI narrative + speculative flow = **earnings lotto ticket with strategy.** 💬 *"Speculation with structure beats blind YOLO."* --- 📌 Tag a trader who likes calculated risk 📈 📉 Don’t forget to scale OUT, not just IN. \#APLD #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #TradingView #AIStocks #YOLOWithStops #IVCrushProof #CallOptions #SwingTrade #BullishSetup
NASDAQ:APLDLong
by quantsignals
DXY with interest rates With interest rates remaining steady, the U.S. Dollar is currently moving in a bullish direction. As shown in the chart, it seems likely that price will break the previous high and form a bullish Quasimodo (QM) pattern. The price may then reach the 50% Fibonacci level. After that, we should wait and observe the market's reaction. If price gets rejected from the 103 zone — especially if accompanied by a rate cut or bearish price action — we could see a sharp decline toward the 95 area. This 95 zone also aligns with a key weekly Fibonacci support level on the Dollar Index. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, the U.S. Dollar may continue its upward momentum. However, the 103–104 zone — which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a significant supply area — could serve as a strong resistance. If price gets rejected from this area and we simultaneously see signs of a rate cut or weakening U.S. economic data, a trend reversal and corrective phase could begin. In that case, lower targets around 95 or even 93 could become likely in the medium term. good luck
TVC:DXY
by mehdi_kb
KNR Construction on the Highway to Resistance NSE:KNRCON 1M TF 🏭 INDUSTRIALS (Infrastructure/Manufacturing – Govt Capex Tailwinds) Hyderabad-B’luru Highway Contract-FIIs ↑2.7% At the time of charting NRC was trading at 211 Trend 1M TF: Multi-year upward channel intact (orange lines), but price currently near the lower channel support. Key Levels: Immediate support: ₹176–180 (monthly support zone). Resistance levels: ₹291–295 (Bullish Order Block + pivot S), then ₹353 (P) and upper channel resistance ₹470. Structure: Price has been in a descending wedge (mini downtrend) within the bigger channel → typically a bullish reversal pattern. Previous big red candles show capitulation; recent candles show reduced selling pressure → possible accumulation. strong hands absorbing supply. Breakout confirmation: Monthly close above ₹230–235 would validate wedge breakout and bring ₹291–353 in play. 📊 3. Fundamental Alignment (FA) Macro context: KRC operates in infrastructure/industrial RE/parks (if Krishnagiri/K Raheja Corp Ltd). Sector aligned with capex cycles and logistics growth in India. Government push for Make in India, manufacturing, and warehousing supports demand. Valuation: After a deep correction, valuations are at the lower end of historical range, making it attractive for long-term investors. 🧰 4. Strategic Outlook ►we'll follow this trade closely and within incoming week we'll up a close up view of 4h TF Bias: Bullish reversal bias as long as ₹176 monthly support holds. Accumulating around ₹185–211 zone. Alternate scenario: Breakdown below ₹176 on volume → price could retest ₹150–140 support zone. Always DYOR See you on the other side 💡 Reflective Close "Multi-year support zones often define💰trades for patient investors. Are you ready build positions when the market narrative is still fearful?"
NSE:KNRCON
by Jova-A
Major test for crypto bulls - BTC and ETH Bitcoin has dipped below $118,000, putting pressure on the bullish structure that’s held for the past two weeks. The attempted breakout above $121,000 has failed, and price is now breaking down through the middle of the consolidation range, threatening short-term higher lows. On the 4H chart, this move resembles a failed breakout with a potential double-top near $121,000. If Bitcoin can’t reclaim $116,000 quickly, the next downside levels to watch are $114,000 and $110,000. Ethereum, meanwhile, has stalled just below $3,800 after a strong rally this month. Price action has flattened out over the past few days, with several failed attempts to push through that level. The key upside trigger remains $4,000. But if $3,700 gives way, ETH may slide back to the $3,450–$3,300 region, where previous resistance and the rising trendline converge.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
BITCOIN → Correction within a downward channel. 112K or 125K?BINANCE:BTCUSDT is consolidating. However, a local downward trading range is forming relative to the current setup. What is the probability of a correction continuing to 112K or growth to 125K? Daily structure: a local correctional channel within a global bullish trend. We have cascading resistance at 119.2, 119.6, 120, and 120.8. It will be quite difficult to break through this zone on the first attempt, but MM can use it to form traps and collect liquidity. At the bottom, everything is simpler — a breakdown of the local bullish structure, the formation of an intermediate minimum, below which there is a void down to 112K. Yesterday, relative to 115-116K, mm staged a massacre (trap) on both sides of the market. Liquidity collection, return to the range, and growth. The reaction to the false breakdown of support is quite strong. Since the opening of the session, Bitcoin has been heading towards resistance, but there may not be enough potential to break through the upper resistance conglomerate, so I expect to see a pullback or decline to 116-115-114. Resistance levels: 119.2, 120.1, 120.85 Support levels: 116.37, 115.67, 112 Technically and fundamentally, I do not see any drivers that could support the market (I am talking about Bitcoin, since the driver for altcoins is the decline in Bitcoin's dominance). It is possible that this may appear later. In the current situation, I am considering a false breakout and correction, as the market has not yet finished consolidating or correcting, and the current downward trading range may be extended. PS: As the price moves towards resistance, it is necessary to monitor the reaction. The market itself will show what it is preparing for... Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
30
ASML — Strong earnings, sharp drop on profit-taking. Second chanAfter a strong quarterly report, NASDAQ:ASML stock initially surged, but then dropped -7.6% in a single session. Most likely due to profit-taking and a broader tech sector correction. Still, the key $754 support held, and the uptrend remains intact. Trade Setup: • Buy Zone: $754–760 (on retest) • Target: $849 (+12%) • Stop Loss: $730 (below support and volume shelf) • Risk/Reward: 1:8 Earnings were great, fundamentals are solid. This drop could be a shakeout before continuation. As long as $754 holds, bulls have a second chance.
NASDAQ:ASMLLong
by ALVO13_official
9
Have been warned multiple times....BTC will FALL on retailersBTC has been consolidating at the top for a while, which is not very common. Have a feeling that crypto bros have been getting the scratch for more profit taking, but no sensible person will keep buying at the top when the market is already WAY overheated. Picked up early UltraBear signal on this, don't be the person holding to the bag for years. This bubble will burst, just like every other time! Always do your own due diligence, stay safe and get out if you can....
Short
by antonini2002
1
ETHUSD Long Setup: Targeting $4,000 After Bullish Reversal from ETH just swept the previous lows near $3,650–$3,700, clearing liquidity and flipping that zone into fresh support. This classic price action move often precedes expansion, and ETH looks primed for a continuation toward $4,000 in the coming sessions. 🧠 Technical Analysis Previous Highs Swept: ETH took out the prior highs around $3,650–$3,700, trapping late shorts and grabbing liquidity. Break of Structure: We've seen a clear bullish market structure form on the 4H and daily TFs, with higher highs and higher lows intact. Support Zones: $3,650–$3,700 (former resistance, now flipped support) $3,550 (consolidation base before breakout) Resistance Zones: $3,950–$4,000 (psychological level + previous 2024 highs) $4,100+ (weekly imbalance and potential extension zone) Now that ETH has cleared short-term liquidity and confirmed demand on the retest, the path of least resistance appears to be up. 🔍 Fundamental Outlook ETH ETF Narrative: Market anticipation for spot ETH ETF approval is heating up, boosting demand and institutional interest. Reduced Sell Pressure: With the Shanghai upgrade long behind us, staking continues to increase, reducing circulating supply. Macro Tailwinds: Risk-on sentiment in the broader market is aiding crypto momentum, especially for large-cap assets like ETH. 🎯 Target: $4,000 📉 Invalidated Below: $3,550 (if reclaimed by bears, invalidates bullish thesis)
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by MrYounity
1
Bearish Gold Outlook — Potential Flash Crash Imminent🔻 Technical Structure – Bearish Breakdown Brewing Lower highs and lower lows forming on the daily and 4H timeframes — classic downtrend mechanics. Price has rejected multiple times near $3,400–3,430, forming a strong resistance ceiling. Support at $3,280–3,300 has been tested too many times— and each bounce is weaker. When support holds with less conviction, it's often about to break. Volume spikes on red candles show smart money is exiting on down moves — signs of institutional distribution. The **tightening consolidation range** looks like a **descending triangle** — usually resolves downward. If $3,280 breaks, expect a **liquidity event**. Stops get swept, leading to a **sudden acceleration — possibly a flash crash** to $3,200 or lower. 🌍 **Fundamental Drivers – Macro Picture Is Turning Hostile for Gold** 1. Real Yields Are Climbing U.S. real yields are up as inflation fades and the Fed stays hawkish. Gold, being yieldless, suffers when investors can get positive returns from bonds. 2.The Dollar Is Gaining Strength DXY is pushing higher, fueled by strong U.S. data and weak peers (euro, yen). Gold priced in USD becomes more expensive globally — this suppresses demand. 3. **Rate Cuts Are Off the Table — or Delayed** Market is pricing fewer and later rate cuts from the Fed. This removes one of gold’s biggest bullish catalysts from earlier in the year. 4. Geopolitical Fear Is Cooling No major escalation in Ukraine, Middle East, or Taiwan. Without fear, gold loses its safe-haven premium. 5. Central Bank Buying May Have Peaked Recent data from WGC shows some slowing in central bank accumulation. If this institutional bid softens, gold could drop hard — few natural buyers remain above $3,300. ⚠️Conclusion: Gold Is Walking a Tightrope The chart is a staircase down. Macro fundamentals are no longer supportive. A clean breakdown below $3,280 could trigger a **chain reaction** of automated selling and margin calls — **a flash crash is on the table**. This isn’t just a correction — this feels like the calm before the storm.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by MrYounity
4