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Fundamental Analysis

MARKETS week ahead: June 1 – 7Last week in the news May ended with an eased tensions on financial markets. The daily dose of tariff-tweets is not something that has such a strong impact on market moves as it was in the beginning of the period. Investors are again turning their view on actual macro data and company earnings. The S&P 500 managed to end the month in a positive tone, and a gain of 6%. Eased inflation expectations turned the 10Y US Treasury benchmark to the downside, ending the week at the level of 4,39%. Eased tensions also impact the price of gold to get back in alignment with movements of the US Dollar, ending the week at the level of $3.288. After reaching the Pizza Day new ATH, the price of BTC eased due to profit taking, still ending the week above the $104K. The inflation expectations in the US eased during the previous week, as per official posted data. The posted PCE data at 0,1% in April and 2,1% for the year, were fully in line with market expectations. Core PCE was also standing at the same level. Both indicators are showing that the inflation in the US is at the down path, also in line with Fed expectations. Friday brought May final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, which was at the level of 52,2, modestly higher from anticipated 51. However, the most important information for markets was easing in inflation expectation, where five year expectations dropped to the level of 4.2%. At the same time, the market was expecting to see the figure of 4,6%. Eased inflation is boosting market confidence that the Fed might cut interest rates till the end of this year. The narrative regarding trade tariffs continues to be one of the main topics in the news. During the previous week the US President announced on social networks that China has “violated” trade agreements with the US. On the other hand, there are announcements for increased tariffs on all steel imports to the US, to 50% from the current 25%. As a response to such a narrative the European Union commented its readiness to impose countermeasures on the US. The European Central Bank will hold a regular meeting on June 5th. The majority of market participants are expecting to see the further 25 basis points cut during this meeting, with a pause in July. This cut will bring the reference rate to the level of 2%, which the majority of economists are perceiving as a neutral level. News is reporting an increasing interest from companies in the US to hold BTC. As per a CNBC article, the Trump Media is planning to raise $2,5 billion in order to buy BTC, while GameStop plans to invest $500 million to this coin. At the same time, Tether, SoftBank and Strike will launch Twenty One company which will hold 42.000 BTCs and will be the third largest holder of BTC globally. CRYPTO MARKET After reaching the fresh, new ATH, the BTC entered into correction during the previous week, pulling back the total crypto market capitalization, and the rest of altcoins. This move could be anticipated for this week, considering the profit-taking period, which usually comes with a strong push of value to the higher grounds. Total crypto market capitalization returned to the levels from the start of this year, erasing modest increase in capitalization. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of around $234B on a daily basis, from $306B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at 0%, with an inflow of funds of around $10B. Two weeks ago BTC gained significant 4,8% in value, however, during the previous week, the coin lost 3,9%. Net market capitalization for the last two weeks is still positive, of some $15B increase in total BTC market capitalization. ETH had a relatively calmer week, with a modest funds outflow of $1,3B, which is less than 0,5% of ETHs value. Major coins on the market were also traded in a negative manner. BNB was traded down by 1,8%, while Solana lost 11% in value, with an outflow of $10B. DOGE also ended the week in red, with total outflow of $4,9B or 14,5%. This week Algorand and Polkadot were also traded at higher negative sentiment, where each coin lost in value more than 10%. Only rare coins managed to end the week in green. One of such coins was ZCash with an increase in value of modest 2,2%. OMG Network also ended the week with 3,5% weekly gain. When coins in circulation are in question, IOTA had a significant weekly increase of 0,8%. Solana added 0,4% new coins on the market. Filecoin, traditionally, is increasing the number of its coins on the market, adding this week 0,8% more coins. Crypto futures market This week there has been some relaxation in the price of crypto futures, in line with the relaxation on the spot market. BTC futures ended the week by around 4% lower from the week before, for all maturities. At the same time ETH futures were traded relatively flat on a weekly basis. BTC futures ending in December 2025 closed the week at $108.995, and those maturing a year later, reached the last price at $115.280. ETH futures with maturity in December 2025 were last traded at $2.692, and with maturity in December 2026 closed the week at $2.897.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
It's not the time for Bitcoin...yet. BTC rose by 6% during Bitcoin 2024 with the presence of Trump. This year, it has disappointingly sunk by 4% during Bitcoin 2025. I have come to the conclusion that BTC will make one final attempt to reach 108k and then failing to keep up with the momentum, plummet towards 93k. Institutional participation has been spectacular this year as shown with all the huge amounts of purchases, but something crucial to a continuation of momentum has been lacking thus far: retail investors. Without their participation, it's impossible to reach to the moon. So much BTC has been purchased in whopping amounts, but BTC has only appreciated 3k from the previous ATH of 108k. It needs to go lower first before the actual lift-off can become possible.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Impala36
The Setback May Be Over!- Valuation multiples remain stable, yet stock prices appear to be under pressure due to declining profitability indicators — even though this effect may fade soon. - Momentum persists, and positive analyst revisions are gaining strength. The stability in growth reinforces the reliability of these signals. - A three-phase corrective wave seems to have ended, followed by the initiation of a new wave with the first impulsive leg already completed. - A pullback may occur through a corrective mini-trend, and the trendline break reinforces this likelihood. - NEVERTHELESS, the overall outlook remains highly positive, and a dollar-cost averaging strategy would be a rational approach.
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by Tolgaun6
1
Setting the Stage for a New Bull Cycle- The theoretical price cycle has ended and appears to be initiating a new one — naturally beginning with an impulsive move. - While the company is perceived as evolving into a cash cow, it still remains the leader of a high-growth market. This makes it an exceptional portfolio asset. - The peak of the new trend could reach the 261.8% level. A minor correction trend might follow, but it's not considered significant. - Unless there is a downward revision in analyst forecasts, the stock should be held for the long term, with additional entries recommended at each correction wave.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Tolgaun6
Technical and Fundamental Alignment: New Rally on the Horizon?- The company's valuation multiples appear expensive relative to its own historical averages. - However, there is a positive momentum in both growth and profitability indicators. - Price momentum remains intact, and it is encouraging that this is supported by positive analyst revisions. - According to visual (technical) analysis, the emergence of buyers around the 61.8% Fibonacci level makes it highly likely that an impulsive trend could begin, potentially extending towards the 161.8% level.
NYSE:ACHRLong
by Tolgaun6
1
XAGUSD Weekly Technical Analysis Breakdown (MMC Style) + Target📈 Chart Summary: The chart shows the price action of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe, capturing a significant shift in market sentiment. This analysis is based on the MMC (Market Maker Cycle) concept and a combination of Smart Money Concepts, Pennant Structure, and Volume Contraction patterns. Over the past weeks, XAGUSD has transitioned from accumulation and markup to distribution and markdown, suggesting that smart money has exited long positions and is now pushing price toward discount zones for future reaccumulation. 🔍 Detailed Breakdown: 🔹 1. Major Resistance Area – The Selling Origin At the top of the chart, we see a major resistance zone near $35–$36, which acted as a structural ceiling for months. Each time price approached this area, sellers stepped in aggressively, rejecting price and creating long wicks. This level represents institutional supply—where big players offload positions, often leaving a liquidity trail behind for later use. 🔹 2. Pennant Formation + Volume Contraction – Classic Distribution From late April to mid-May, Silver formed a pennant structure, a well-known consolidation pattern. What's special here is the volume contraction—a subtle clue that buyers are drying up while sellers prepare for a large move. This is a classic Wyckoff distribution behavior: Buyers are lured in as price moves in a tight range. Breakout traders enter early expecting a bullish continuation. Institutions trap liquidity before dumping price into inefficiency. The mini Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside acted as a false breakout, perfectly engineered to trap liquidity above the pennant. 🔹 3. Structural Breakdown – Momentum Shifts Bearish Once the trap was complete, price reversed with strong momentum, breaking past key supports and violating internal structure. The label "Structural Analysis" marks the beginning of this break in market structure, confirming the change in character. This shift aligns with Smart Money’s "Manipulation → Distribution → Expansion" logic. We also note how price broke below the SR-interchange zone, where support became resistance—a powerful reversal confirmation. 🔹 4. Target + Next Reversal Zone – The Magnet Currently, Silver is headed toward the $29–$28 zone, highlighted in red as the "Target + Next Reversal" area. This level has high confluence: Acts as a previous QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level). Has unmitigated demand. Matches with earlier lows where smart money likely accumulated positions. Here, we can expect either a strong bounce or short-term consolidation before the next directional move. 📌 Confluence Zones: Key Zone Significance $35–$36 Major Resistance (Supply / Exit zone) $33.5 Mini BOS & Liquidity Trap Area $31.8 – $32.5 Structural Break Zone (Old Demand Broken) $29 – $28 Target + Reversal (High Confluence Zone) 🧠 Smart Money Perspective: This entire sequence is not random—it’s engineered. Institutions: Collected orders at the bottom. Pushed price up to resistance. Consolidated in a pennant to build liquidity. Triggered a false breakout to trap late buyers. Dumped aggressively, targeting previous lows for re-entry. This is the Market Maker Cycle in action — and we’re in the Distribution to Markdown phase right now. 🎯 Trading Plan: Short-Term Bias: Bearish until $29–$28 is reached. Swing Traders: Look for signs of reversal in the $28–$29 zone (bullish engulfing, FVG fill, or demand reactivation). Day Traders: Watch for pullbacks to the $32.5–$33 resistance zone to enter continuation shorts. 🧵 Final Thoughts: This is a textbook example of how Smart Money manipulates structure, traps liquidity, and moves price in phases. Patterns like pennants, BOS, and SR flips, when combined with volume and context, give us clear directional bias. If you're still chasing the breakout without understanding the setup behind it, you're trading against those who engineered the move. Understand the structure — or get trapped by it.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
AMARAJARAJA#AMARAJARAJA, #EnergyStocks, #Bullish, #BreakoutRetest, #TechnicalAnalysis, #NSE ARE&M Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd (AMARAJARAJA) is currently retesting a key Support zone around ₹950, After a solid upward move, the price is pulling back in a healthy manner, forming a textbook bullish retest pattern. This setup often precedes a continuation of the prevailing trend. Why I'm Bullish: 🔹 Price retesting former resistance turned support at ₹950 🔹 Bullish market structure remains intact 🔹 Monthly bullish pin bar candle 🔹 Volume tapering on pullback – a bullish sign of consolidation Key Levels: 🔹 Support (Retest Zone): ₹950 🔹 Major Resistance / Target: ₹1775.95 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
NSE:ARE&MLong
by mrsameofficial
BTCUSD Weekly Structure Analysis – Bearish Trend + Target🔍 Overview: Bitcoin has shown us a classic market structure shift, moving from bullish strength into a clear bearish retracement, all while respecting major zones and smart money concepts. This current price action highlights a Bearish Break of Structure (BOS), followed by a continuation move toward a key demand zone, which we are eyeing for the next potential reversal opportunity. 🧩 1. TRC Breakout & Early Bull Run The chart shows a strong bullish phase starting from November 2024, which peaked in late May 2025. The TRC (Trendline Resistance Channel) Breakout marked the shift from lower highs to higher highs. This breakout was the initial sign of bullish strength, leading to a break of structure (BOS) around the $108,000–$110,000 level. ⚠️ 2. BOS Confirmed – Structure Starts to Crumble Once price reached the reversal area near $112,000 (supply zone), we saw a failure to form new highs. The Bearish BOS was confirmed when price failed to hold support and aggressively broke below the previous higher low. This BOS is our first confirmation of trend exhaustion and a transition into bearish structure. 🧠 3. Structural Analysis & Smart Money Behavior Notice how price moved sideways near the top before dropping — a typical distribution phase. This is where smart money distributes positions to retail buyers at the top before the markdown. After the BOS, each lower high confirmed the bearish market structure, with no strong bullish CHoCH in sight. 🧱 4. Major CHoCH & Interchange Zone Look lower on the chart — the SR Interchange Zone around the $76,000–$78,000 area is significant. This acted as resistance in early 2025, flipped into support later, and now stands as a potential Major CHoCH (Change of Character) if price revisits and reverses here. If price respects this zone again, it could mark the next bullish accumulation phase. 🎯 5. Current Target: $83,000–$85,000 Zone Based on structural behavior, liquidity voids, and past interaction, our short-term target is the $83,000–$85,000 demand zone. This area is marked as “Target + Next Reversal” on the chart. We expect either: A reaction and reversal from this zone Or a deeper push toward SR Interchange depending on volume and macro triggers 🧮 Key Technical Breakdown: Component Observation Trendline Break TRC Breakout in February Bullish BOS Confirmed around $108,000 Reversal Area ~$112,000 (Supply/Distribution) Structure Shift Bearish BOS confirmed Current Target $83,000–$85,000 CHoCH Potential $76,000–$78,000 Bias Bearish short-term 🧠 Trading Wisdom: “Structure tells the story — price action confirms it.” Always analyze shifts in structure, not just candle patterns. BOS and CHoCH are some of the most reliable tools in understanding true market intent, especially when aligned with high-volume reversal areas. ✅ Final Thoughts: Bitcoin is currently in a controlled retracement phase, and we are watching closely how price behaves near the $83K–$85K demand zone. If that fails, the deeper SR Interchange at ~$76K becomes the next high-probability zone for long entries. This is a time to be patient, analyze clean structure, and ride with smart money, not against it.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold Analysis Weekly (XAU/USD) – Bullish Pennant + Target🔍 Overview: The XAU/USD (Gold) chart is displaying a textbook Pennant Pattern, and we are witnessing a powerful bullish breakout from this structure. This is a great example of how price consolidates before continuing its larger trend — in this case, upward. Let’s break down each major component of the pattern and price behavior: 🧩 1. The Pennant Pattern – Continuation Structure A Pennant typically forms after a strong impulsive move (flagpole), followed by a period of consolidation where price creates lower highs and higher lows, forming a triangle-like shape. This structure reflects market indecision, but it’s usually a pause before continuation. In our case: The rally in March–April built the flagpole The April–May consolidation formed the pennant The recent breakout signals trend continuation 🎭 2. Fake First Move – Classic Trap! One of the key traits of pennants is the initial fake breakout—and that’s exactly what happened here. The chart shows an early bearish break, which was a liquidity grab or fake move meant to trap retail traders who entered short too early. Smart money often uses such tactics to create imbalance and then reverse the market in the opposite direction. 🔄 3. Major CHoCH (Change of Character) Following the fake move, price reversed aggressively, breaking internal structure and forming a Major Change of Character (CHoCH). This was the first signal that the bulls were back in control and that the bearish pressure was only temporary. 🧱 4. Major BOS (Break of Structure) & Trendline Break The decisive move came next — when price broke above the upper trendline of the pennant and took out previous highs. This break is what we call a Major BOS (Break of Structure) — a strong confirmation that the market is shifting from consolidation back into trend mode. The breakout was backed by momentum candles, indicating institutional activity. 🎯 5. Target Zone: $3,700–$3,750 (Reversal Area) Using the measured move technique (height of the flagpole projected from breakout point), the calculated target zone lies between $3,700 and $3,750. This area is also marked as a potential reversal or profit-taking zone, so we might expect: Partial pullback Sideways action Or even a deeper correction before continuation 📚 Key Technical Insights: Component Observation Pattern Bullish Pennant First Move Bearish Fakeout Confirmation Signal CHoCH + BOS Trendline Break Yes, confirmed Target Zone $3,700 – $3,750 Current Price ~$3,290 (at time of writing) Bias Strong Bullish (short to mid-term) 🧠 Educational Takeaway: “The first move is often the fake move.” This is a golden rule in trading consolidation patterns like triangles and pennants. Always wait for confirmation (CHoCH + BOS) before committing capital to a trade. This strategy avoids traps and puts you on the right side of the market. ✅ Conclusion: Gold (XAU/USD) has completed a successful bullish pennant breakout, and all key confirmations are in place. We’re now eyeing the $3,700–$3,750 zone as the next target — with the potential for either reversal or continuation depending on how price reacts. Keep an eye on this chart — the next few sessions could offer great setups for both swing and position traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
GBPUSD 4H MAJOR REVERSAL SETUP – WATCH FOR THE BREAK!Hey There; The Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern in GBPUSD is becoming more defined, approaching a critical neckline level. If a breakout occurs, it could trigger a strong downward move, pushing the price toward new support levels. Right now, sellers are gaining strength while buyers attempt to defend key support zones. A confirmed close below the neckline could accelerate the sell-off. 📌 If the breakout happens, I’ll share target levels with you—stay tuned for updates I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
by TraderTilki
HDFC AMC – Bullish Flag Formation on Daily ChartHDFC AMC is currently exhibiting a bullish flag formation, a classic continuation pattern following a strong vertical rally. The recent price action is consolidating within a downward-sloping channel, typically seen as a pause before the next leg up. Key Technical Levels: Flag upper boundary (first resistance): Around ₹4,400 Flag high / prior resistance: ₹4,583.65 All-time high: ₹4,867.00 A breakout above the flag’s upper line could signal fresh buying momentum with the potential to first retest the flag high and possibly challenge the all-time high if the breakout sustains. Fundamentals Snapshot: Dividend Yield: 1.64% ROCE: 43.3% ROE: 32.4% PE Ratio: 37.09 (vs Industry PE of 20.70) Growth Metrics: Compounded Sales Growth: 10 Years: 13% Compounded Profit Growth: 10 Years: 19% Stock Price CAGR: 5 Years: 10% This combination of strong technical setup and solid financial performance suggests HDFC AMC remains a strong contender in the asset management space. Recent escalations along the India-Pakistan border have led to military confrontations, increasing uncertainty in the broader market. If tensions worsen, volatility may rise, and market sentiment could turn risk-off, impacting financial market. Traders should stay alert for any escalation news. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Market conditions and geopolitical developments can change rapidly.
NSE:HDFCAMCLong
by jeet20
Navigating MSTR’s Price Swings: A Smart Options ApproachOverview MicroStrategy (MSTR) has continued to capture market attention due to its aggressive Bitcoin strategy and significant stock price volatility. In 2025, MSTR surged 41% in one quarter but also reported a massive $4.22 billion net loss in Q1, raising concerns about long-term financial stability. Analysts remain divided, setting price targets ranging from $200 to $650, largely dependent on Bitcoin’s performance and broader market conditions. Key Developments Impacting MSTR ✔ Bitcoin Exposure: MSTR maintains a large Bitcoin position, making its stock highly correlated to BTC’s price movements. ✔ AI Integration: The company is investing in AI-driven products, which could provide diversification outside of Bitcoin. ✔ Institutional View: Analysts remain split on MicroStrategy’s valuation due to its uncertain revenue model. ✔ Macro Volatility: Market-wide sentiment, interest rates, and crypto regulations will influence MSTR’s trajectory. Options Strategy for the Week 🚀 Iron Condor Setup for June 6 Expiration To capitalize on MSTR’s volatility while managing risk, an Iron Condor strategy is structured within a controlled range: - Inner Range: Sell Calls at 395 and Puts at 335 - Coverage: Buy Calls at 415 and Puts at 315 ✅ Objective: Profiting from sideways price movement while minimizing exposure to extreme volatility. ✅ Risk Management: If MSTR breaks above 415 or below 315, the long positions hedge against excessive losses.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by Wiiso
POLESTAR (PSNY) - LONGTERM BUYING OPPORTUNITY, RISK:REWARD 1:10Polestar (PSNY) has been in a long term downtrend since its launch on the NASDAQ, the EV sector has seen some excitement however adoption to EV vehicles has been a slow trend worldwide compared to the hype when first introduced. At current, EV sector participants are in the beginning phases of mass adoption and battery and charger technology is seeing some much needed advancement before mass adoption can take place, many barriers exist in real world infrastructure and this technology will take many years to advance. The promise of autonomous self driving will ultimately catapult these EV companies to new heights financially, however the timing is not right just yet. Once AI advances enough to power ASD, rob taxis and self driving will be a common sight around the world starting in smaller cities and eventually becoming advanced enough to power more of the vehicles worldwide. Polestar's all time low trading price is at $.60 cents and currently sits right above $1.00 per share. Any price between $.60 cents and its current price would be a good 1:10 risk reward investment with downside very limited to potential upside gains to $10 and potentially higher in the long term future. If the EV and AI fulfill its promise, the investment should pay off in the long term. Disclaimer: With any investment advice especially those where you plan to invest your hard earned money, do your own research before taking any financial advice to understand your exposure and risk tolerance, analyze the utilization of any broker(s) or investment vehicle(s) to understand how your funds are stored or utilized within the platform and always have a plan and strategy prior to entering any market.
NASDAQ:PSNYLong
by Miiztasatish
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Core PCE (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC April/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile and energy prices and is Federal Reserve's chosen gauge of underlying inflation in the US economy, went up 0.1% from the previous month in April of 2025. The result was in line with market expectations. From the previous year, the index rose by 2.5% to slow from the 2.7% jump from March, the softest increase since March of 2021.
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
by Mr_J__fx
$FIL sell side liquidity swept, the only way is up !LSE:FIL has been in a sideways consolidation range for a good period of time now. While I still struggle to see this coin re-visiting all time highs due to fairly heavy dilution, this trade opportunity looks too good to pass up on! 💰 We can see the clear range, which has recently seen a liquidity sweep of the previous lows. 💰 Price has managed to reclaim the level so far, and is now using it as support. To me, it looks like price will progress from this level back up to the top of the range. Good luck traders ! Kieza Tradez
Long
by KiezaTradez