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Fundamental Analysis

GOLD 1. Gold and Dollar Index (DXY) Correlation Gold and the US dollar (DXY) typically have a strong inverse correlation. When the dollar strengthens, gold tends to weaken because gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports gold prices by making it cheaper internationally. However, during periods of geopolitical tension or market stress, both gold and the dollar can rise simultaneously as safe-haven assets. In 2025, gold has shown resilience despite some dollar strength due to inflation concerns and central bank purchases. 2. Gold and Current Interest Rates / 10-Year Bond Yield The current US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.41% to 4.54% (latest data from May 21 to May 30, 2025). Interest rates and bond yields have an inverse relationship with gold prices, primarily through the impact of real interest rates (nominal yield minus inflation). Rising nominal yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically pressuring gold prices. However, if inflation expectations rise faster than nominal yields, real yields can remain low or negative, supporting gold demand. Recent Fed concerns about stagflation and inflation have kept real yields low, supporting gold prices despite elevated nominal yields. 3. Gold and Bond Prices Bond prices and yields move inversely: when bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa. Rising bond prices (falling yields) generally support gold prices, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Conversely, falling bond prices (rising yields) tend to pressure gold. As of late May 2025, bond prices have been relatively stable but with some downward pressure reflecting inflation and fiscal concerns. 4. Carry Trade Advantage Related to Gold Carry trade involves borrowing in low-interest-rate currencies and investing in higher-yielding assets or currencies. Gold carry trades involve borrowing gold at low leasing rates and investing the proceeds in higher-yielding instruments. The carry trade advantage depends on the interest rate differential and gold lease rates; low gold lease rates and high interest rate differentials favor carry trades. Changes in interest rates and bond yields influence carry trade flows indirectly by affecting currency valuations and the cost of financing gold positions. When interest rate differentials widen in favor of a currency, that currency strengthens, which can pressure gold prices denominated in that currency. Summary Table Factor Current Status (May 2025) Correlation with Gold Key Notes Dollar Index (DXY) Around 98.4, testing key support Inverse Dollar strength pressures gold, exceptions in crises US 10-Year Treasury Yield ~4.41% - 4.54% Inverse (via real yields) Higher nominal yields pressure gold unless inflation rises faster Bond Prices Slight downward pressure Positive Rising bond prices support gold by lowering yields Interest Rates (Fed Funds) Fed funds ~4.25%, markets pricing cuts later in 2025 Inverse Rate hikes increase opportunity cost of gold Carry Trade Advantage Dependent on currency yield differentials Indirect Wider differentials can strengthen currencies, impacting gold Conclusion Gold prices remain inversely correlated with the US dollar and real interest rates. Despite elevated nominal 10-year yields (~4.4%), gold is supported by low or negative real yields due to inflation concerns. Bond price movements, reflecting yield changes, also influence gold indirectly through opportunity costs. Carry trade dynamics, driven by interest rate differentials, affect currency strength and thus gold prices, with low gold lease rates enhancing carry trade profitability. Monitoring DXY trends, inflation-adjusted yields, and central bank policies is essential to understanding gold’s near- and medium-term price movements. #GOLD #DOLLAR
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Consumer Services (Hotel & Tourism Sector) : SPCSECSP : CSE Fundamentals * Q4 2025 results indicate weakening momentum in the sector in respect of topline growth. * Combined YoY revenue growth for Q4 2025 of four biggest hotel operators listed in CSE AHUN, KHL, PALM & AHPL is just 1% * Major 5 STAR city hotels (AHPL, TAJ, SERV) combined revenue had recorded a negative growth of more than 5% (dropped by > 5%) during Q4 2025 comparative to previous year * CBSL data indicates USD Earnings per Arrival had dropped by 3.03% during April 2025 against 2024. This indicates deteriorating quality of arrivals. * No visible global promotional campaign during last 6-8 months * Country is entering the tourism off-season Technical Analysis (Chart Patterns) * After dropping aggressively (17%) from recent top, SPCSECSP index is consolidating between 484-514 area creating a bear flag formation while CSE is in a bull run. * If breaks down technical target would be 400-420 level (another 15-17% drop) * Weekly 20 SMA is curling down * Levels marked as 1,2,3 are support areas where investors can assess the developments for re-positioning. (levels 2/3 are strong support areas) Strategy Staying away from the sector and monitoring the progress/developments might be prudent while allocating capital for sectors with momentum/better growth * If technical pattern discussed above, breaks down estimated time it will take to reach major support area coincides with the start of next tourism season (Sep/Oct), where investors can assess the situation for re-positioning. Disclaimer * NOT financial advice * Investors should take their investment decisions based their own analysis
CSELK:SPCSECSPShort
by HR2302
#GBPJPY: Buyers and Sellers Both Has Equal Chances! Hey there! So, GBPJPY is at a pivotal moment, and we might see a mix of buying and selling activity in the market. Since the bulls aren’t exactly sure what to do next, here’s what we think: - The GBPJPY pair is having a tough time breaking through the 194 region. The Japanese yen (JPY) is holding steady, making it hard to predict what will happen next. This has made trading JPY pairs a real challenge. - Looking back at how prices have behaved in similar situations can give us some clues about what might happen in the future. But it’s important to do thorough research before we start trading. Just because something happened in the past doesn’t mean it will happen again. - The Japanese yen (JPY) also tends to go down when the US dollar (USD) goes up. Since we’re bullish on the DXY index in the coming days, we think the JPY will probably take a hit, and it could go down a lot. It’s also worth keeping an eye on the GBP, which has been one of the most popular currencies since the market opened earlier today. - In the meantime, we suggest setting two take-profit targets: one at 197 and another at 199. These levels are likely to see a lot of selling activity. Now, let’s talk about what sellers should do: - The price is currently in favour of sellers since it dropped from 195.50 to 193.50. And since the last two daily candles closed with strong bearish volume, it looks like the price is going to keep going down. - If the price breaks below 190.50, that would be a great opportunity for sellers to make some money. Good luck and trade safely! Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊 If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can help us: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_ ❤️🚀
by Setupsfx_
21
AUDUSDAUD/USD Analysis: Bond Yields, Interest Rate Differential, Carry Trade, and Upcoming Fundamentals 1. 10-Year Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differential (May 25–30, 2025) Australian 10-Year Bond Yield: ~4.42% (as of May 23, 2025) . US 10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.51% (as of May 21–23, 2025) . Interest Rate Differential:4.51% (US)−4.42% (AUD)=+0.09% so the IRD is 4.51% (US)−4.42% (AUD)=+0.09% The US held a slight yield advantage, though the spread narrowed due to RBA rate cuts and weaker Australian data. 2. Policy Rate Differential and Carry Trade Advantage RBA Cash Rate: 3.85% (cut by 25bps in May 2025) . Fed Funds Rate: 4.25% (lower bound) . Interest Rate Differential:4.25% (US)−3.85% (AUD)=+0.40% The USD held a carry trade advantage, incentivizing investors to borrow AUD (lower rate) and invest in USD assets (higher rate). 3. AUD/USD Price Action (May 25–30) AUD/USD fell to 0.6425, down 1% weekly, pressured by: Weak Australian retail sales (-0.1% MoM) and building permits . RBA’s dovish pivot, signaling potential further cuts amid trade tensions and slowing inflation . Reinstated US tariffs under Trump’s policies, boosting USD safe-haven demand . 4. Key Fundamentals for June 1–7, 2025 Australia: Retail Sales (May 30): Weakness could reinforce RBA easing expectations . Building Approvals (June 3): Further declines may pressure AUD . RBA Rhetoric: Dovish guidance likely to persist, with markets pricing rates to 3% by early 2026 . US: Nonfarm Payrolls (June 6): Strong data may revive Fed rate hike bets, widening the USD yield advantage. Tariff Developments: Escalating US-China/EU trade tensions could strengthen USD . Global Risks: Stagflation fears and bond market volatility may amplify AUD/USD swings . Summary Table Metric Australia (AUD) United States (USD) 10-Year Bond Yield ~4.42% ~4.51% Policy Rate 3.85% 4.25% Interest Rate Differential +0.40% (USD over AUD) — Carry Trade Bias USD favored — Conclusion May 25–30: AUD/USD weakened due to RBA dovishness and USD strength, with a +0.40% rate differential supporting USD carry trades. June 1–7: Focus on Australian retail sales, building approvals, and US jobs data. A soft AU data mix and resilient US economy may extend AUD/USD’s downtrend toward 0.6360 Monitor RBA/Fed rhetoric and trade policy shifts for volatility. #audusd
Long
by Shavyfxhub
3
XAUUSD H1 Outlook – Monday, June 2, 2025“Equilibrium Loading — Breakout or Breakdown?” 👋 Welcome back traders — let’s decode the H1 battlefield together. Gold is currently consolidating just under the 3290–3300 magnet, after a slow Friday close. The chart shows clear lower highs and rejection from premium, with multiple CHoCHs confirming bearish intent. However, price hasn’t fully broken below key H1 structure yet, holding just above equilibrium support. We’re sitting in a coiled market — liquidity has built on both sides. Monday will likely give us the breakout. 🔹 Current Bias 🔻 Bearish bias while under 3308 📉 Structure shows CHoCH → BOS → LH, all under premium 🧭 Price is compressing between 3300 resistance and 3270 support 🔹 Refined Structural Zones (Realistic Width) 🔺 Key Resistance Zones (Upside) Zone Price Range Context 🔺 Minor OB Rejection 3295 – 3308 Local OB + premium zone → first reaction area 🔺 Inducement Trap 3315 – 3335 Clean liquidity pocket → likely wick spike trap if retested 🔺 Extended Premium Zone 3340 – 3360 Final resistance from May → only valid if HH breaks 🔻 Key Support Zones (Downside) Zone Price Range Context 🔹 Equilibrium Hold 3270 – 3250 Current floor. If broken, momentum shifts hard down 🔻 CHoCH + FVG Fill 3235 – 3212 BOS zone + inefficiency. Logical sell-side draw 🔵 Discount Demand Zone 3185 – 3160 Last HL + OB. Major reaction zone for swing reentry 🔹 EMA Flow (Momentum Outlook) ❗ Price is below all EMAs (5/21/50/100/200) = bearish stacked pressure EMA100/200 are bending — momentum is confirming bearish tilt Only a sharp move above 3308 will flip momentum short-term 🧠 Tactical Scenarios for Monday: 🔻 Sell Bias Active: Rejection from 3295–3308 = possible LH → short down to 3250 Break of 3250 → continuation leg toward 3212 and 3185 🔁 Trap and Flip (Low Probability): Price breaks above 3308 and holds → possible squeeze into 3335 Confirm with BOS + bullish PA on M15-H1 🔚 Summary: Gold on H1 is coiled tightly inside mid-premium, and structure is now pointing slightly bearish. If we stay under 3308, the path of least resistance is down. If bulls trap sellers and break above, 3335 becomes the target. Let price reveal its intent — you trade from clean structure, not from bias. 💬 Was this helpful? 📍 Follow GoldFxMinds for daily sniper-entry levels, bias shifts, and clean trade maps 👍 Like if you're waiting for confirmation before reacting 👇 Comment below: Will we flush into 3212 — or spike 3335 first? See you in the charts. — GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldFxMinds
MOONPIG Is Taking Off — Thanks to James Wynn’s Viral CloutThe James Wynn Phenomenon: James Wynn, a crypto trader who turned $4 million into $100 million before losing nearly all of it in leveraged Bitcoin futures, has become a polarizing figure in the crypto space. His massive trades, including a $1.2 billion Bitcoin long position that ended in a $17.5 million loss and a subsequent $1 billion short position with 40x leverage, have made him a viral sensation. Despite these setbacks, Wynn’s resilience and bold moves keep him in the spotlight, with thousands of traders and investors following his every step. Wynn’s fame stems not just from his trading but from his ability to move markets. His posts on X, where he boasts a significant following, often trigger rapid price movements in the assets he mentions. This influence is now centered on $MOONPIG, a Solana-based meme coin that’s gaining traction thanks to his vocal support. $MOONPIG: A Meme Coin with Momentum: $MOONPIG, a meme coin built on the Solana blockchain, has seen its price surge by as much as 80% following Wynn’s endorsements, though it’s also faced volatility with a 30% drop in 24 hours and a 60% decline from its all-time high. Despite these fluctuations, the coin’s community-driven narrative and Wynn’s backing make it a compelling speculative play. Wynn’s posts on X reveal his belief in $MOONPIG’s potential to be the “next SafeMoon” of this cycle, predicting a run to a billion-dollar market cap. He’s emphasized its appeal to retail investors, calling it “normie-friendly” and highlighting its strong community as a key driver. This narrative aligns with the meme coin mania that often propels tokens like CRYPTOCAP:DOGE or CRYPTOCAP:SHIB to explosive gains during bullish market phases. Why I’m Bullish: Wynn’s Influence as a Catalyst: Wynn’s fame amplifies $MOONPIG’s visibility. His posts on X, such as one claiming he transferred profits to the $MOONPIG reserves wallet, signal commitment and attract attention. When Wynn speaks, traders listen, and his endorsements have already driven significant price action, with one instance sparking an 80% surge. Community Strength: Wynn has emphasized $MOONPIG’s community-driven ethos, stating it “doesn’t need KOLs or BS” and thrives on organic support. In the meme coin space, strong communities can sustain momentum, as seen with tokens like CRYPTOCAP:PEPE , which Wynn also supports. Market Timing: With Bitcoin hitting new highs and retail interest flooding back into crypto, $MOONPIG is well-positioned to ride the wave. Wynn’s thesis that retail investors will soon pour into altcoins aligns with current market sentiment, making $MOONPIG a potential beneficiary. Speculative Upside: Meme coins thrive on hype, and $MOONPIG’s low market cap relative to its potential—analysts like @KookCapitalLLC speculate a $1 billion valuation—offers significant upside for early investors. Even after recent pullbacks, the coin’s volatility suggests opportunities for traders who can stomach the risk.
Long
by TopgOptions
12
CADJPY SELL IDEA-The daily chart is showing a Head and shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder complete, as indicated by the last daily close. - H4 is also showing a Head and Shoulders Pattern with the right shoulder complete. Additionally, Price reached a major supply zone (Circled areas) and fell, forming a head pattern and a lower high. - Price has formed a lower high and lower low on H1, and the last candle's close was an inverse bearish pin bar. Risk - 40 pips Reward - 159 pips
by Mrwarm_
2
BTC/USD 4h Char ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC taking into account the 4-hour interval. We can see how the price is maintained just below the upward trend line, while a downward trend channel may be forming locally. Here you can see how the price decline is maintained in a strong support zone from $ 105,000 to $ 103,150, however, if the support zone is broken, the price may quickly fall to the support area at $ 100,700 Looking the other way, you can see that when the trend reverses, we first have resistance at $ 106,560, the next is at $ 108,590, and then you can see very strong resistance at the level of the last ATH in the area of ​​$ 112,000. On the MACD indicator and the RSI indicator, you can see how we are maintaining in the lower part of the range, which indicates that the price bounce is still taking place to continue the growth.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
1
XAUUSD H4 Outlook — Monday, June 2, 2025"Premium Exhaustion, CHoCH Confirmed — Is the Reversal Loading?" 👋 What’s up, traders — let’s break down the 4H structure for Monday flow. The 4H chart shows gold consolidating tightly around equilibrium (~3289) after a failed attempt to reclaim the premium zone. Price created a Lower High (LH) at 3360 and printed multiple CHoCHs + BOS to the downside. We are now seeing short-term distribution inside a narrow range, with supply active around 3296–3302 and liquidity building below. The market is showing signs of internal weakness: smart money has absorbed buyers in premium, and price is rotating lower, looking for fresh liquidity. 🔹 Market Structure (H4) Structure Element Level / Detail Trend Shift Bearish (CHoCH + LH) Current Price ~3289 (equilibrium) Major LH 3360 Confirmed CHoCHs Multiple — last seen on May 30 Short-Term Flow Bearish compression toward discount 🔹 Key H4 Zones (Refined) 📍 Zone Name Level (Rounded) Confluence 🔺 H4 Supply Block 3296 – 3302 OB + internal FVG rejection zone — short trigger area if retested 🔺 Final Inducement Trap 3326 – 3340 LH zone — liquidity inducement if price spikes early in the session 🔹 Intraday Support Zone 3274 – 3270 EQ edge – support under current price, bounce or break zone 🔻 Breakout Sell Zone 3244 – 3232 CHoCH/BOS zone → clean sell-side continuation if broken 🔵 Discount Buy Area 3188 – 3172 Deep FVG fill + May structure low → possible long reentry zone 🔹 EMA Flow (5 / 21 / 50 / 100 / 200) ⚠️ EMA5 crossed under 21 + 50 → short-term bear confirmation ✅ Price is under EMA21 and EMA50 — bearish control 🛑 EMA200 (3172) sits near discount demand → strong reaction likely if reached 🔹 Game Plan for Monday (Execution Bias) 🔻 Sell Setup #1 (Scalp to Swing): If price retests 3296–3302 → look for bearish PA → short toward 3244 If that breaks → continuation target = 3188 🔺 Buy Setup (Low-Probability Until Reclaim): Buy only valid below 3188 on strong bullish PA or LTF CHoCH Aggressive long possible only above 3340, but that invalidates LH 🔚 Summary: Gold on the 4H is rotating bearish — premium has rejected, CHoCHs confirmed, and EMA structure is rolling over. Price is compressing just under supply, signaling a potential breakdown to clear sell-side liquidity. Your edge this week lies in patiently waiting for retests of broken structure or rejection from clean OB zones. 💬 If This Helped You: 💡 Drop a LIKE if this gave you clarity on the H4 rotation 📲 Follow GoldFxMinds for real-time execution plans and sniper entries 👇 Comment your view: Will 3244 break first — or are we bouncing at 3270? Let’s stay tactical this week. — GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – June 2–6, 2025“Lower High Locked In – Is Gold Ready to Retrace?” 👋 Hello traders — welcome to a new week with GoldFxMinds. After weeks of strong bullish momentum, gold finally showed its first real sign of weakness. Price reached a weekly high of 3356 but failed to continue higher toward April’s ATH at 3500, forming a clean Lower High (LH). The weekly candle closed with a long upper wick and bearish body — a strong signal that buyers are losing steam inside the premium zone. We now shift into a corrective posture, watching closely to see if gold wants to rebalance down into true structure zones. 🔹 Market Context & Structure 📍 Detail Status Macro Bias Bullish (ATH = 3500, April) Current Trend Weakening – LH formed last week Weekly Close 3289, under EMA5 Momentum Shift First rejection after vertical rally Structure Warning Clean LH under ATH confirms retracement probability 🔹 EMA Overview (5/21/50) ✅ EMA Stack: Bullish ⚠️ Price closed under EMA5 (~3288) = first warning 📍 EMA21 near 3076 — next key level for reaction 🛑 Below EMA21 → full retracement likely toward 3040–3038 🔹 Refined Weekly Zones (Precision-Mapped) 📍 Zone Key Levels What to Watch 🔺 Rejection Zone #1 3335 – 3348 Last week’s wick area — short-term supply, expect reaction if retested. 🔺 Inducement Zone 3368 – 3405 Unfilled FVG + internal liquidity. Valid only if HH forms. 🔹 Support Zone #1 3112 – 3098 Monthly PNL + OB. Watch for intraday bounce if price flushes. 🔹 Support Zone #2 3062 – 3040 Clean weekly OB + FVG. Strongest buy zone if retracement deepens. 🧭 Under 3040 = next macro structure at 2638 (last HL) 🔹 Weekly Game Plan If early spike into 3335–3348 → monitor for rejection wick → possible short setup Break of 3245 (last weekly low) → opens path toward 3110 then 3062 Entry on 3062–3040 → valid only if PA confirms (rejection wick, BOS on LTF) Continuation long only if 3368–3405 is broken and held → target ATH (3500) 🔚 Summary: Gold printed a Lower High last week — the first since the macro breakout. That’s a critical signal. With premium already tapped and liquidity cleared above 3300, price may now retrace into real structure, offering better long setups lower. Let the market come to you. Don’t force buys near distribution zones. Watch the 3110 and 3062 areas — that’s where clean structure begins. 💬 If You Found This Helpful: 🔔 Follow GoldFxMinds for daily sniper-entry updates, macro-to-intraday zone breakdowns, and real-time structure shifts 👍 Tap a LIKE if you’re ready to let price come to your level, not your emotions 💭 Comment below: Is this Lower High the start of June’s retracement? Let’s stay focused and trade with intent. — GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD Monthly Outlook – May 2025"Momentum Meets Maturity: Gold Faces Its Final Trap?" 🔹 Overview: Gold has delivered an explosive rally through Q1–Q2 2025, breaking all structural ceilings and printing a new All-Time High (ATH) at 3500 in April. May followed with aggressive bullish continuation, but failed to break that high, closing with a strong body but signs of momentum cooling. We are now trading inside a premium liquidity zone, where retracement becomes increasingly probable. 🔹 Monthly Structure & Bias 🔎 Component Status / Detail Current Price Range 3285–3310 Market Bias Bullish, but overextended ATH Confirmed 3500 (April 2025) May High 3435 – did not break ATH Structure HH + BOS above 2108 = bullish macro EMA Trend Full EMA 5/21/50/100/200 bull lock RSI Likely near overbought (watch June) 🔹 Refined Monthly Zones – GoldFxMinds Precision 📍 Zone Type Key Levels Explanation 🔺 Premium SELL Zone #1 3335 – 3368 First rejection layer inside premium. Previous wick reactions. 🔺 Premium SELL Zone #2 3368 – 3405 Final inducement from May. Ideal for stop hunts and traps. 🔺 ATH Trap Zone 3405 – 3500 Full liquidity cluster around ATH. Extreme caution here. 🔹 Local Monthly Support 3112 – 3098 Minor support below May’s PNL. First reaction floor. 🔹 FVG/OB Buy Zone 3060 – 3038 Valid monthly FVG + OB zone. Stronger confirmation area. 🔵 Macro Swing Support 2638 – 2612 Monthly OB and last HL before the 3000+ breakout. Solid base. 🔵 BOS Origin / HL Base 2592 – 2570 True origin of macro bullish structure. Swing trader interest. ⚫ Equilibrium Major #1 2280 – 2265 Fibonacci 50% of full macro range + EMA50. Potential macro reentry. ⚫ Equilibrium Major #2 2245 – 2212 Liquidity from past accumulation zones (2023–2024). 🔹 Fibonacci Context Full swing: 1045 (2015 low) → 3500 (ATH April 2025) Price is now pressing between the 1.618 and 2.0 extension zone, ideal area for macro distribution. The 50% equilibrium of the macro range sits at ~2240, aligning with EMAs and historical demand. 🔹 Liquidity Analysis ✅ Buy-side liquidity swept at every major milestone: 2108 → 2500 → 3000 → 3300 🎯 Final liquidity pool lies above 3435 into 3500 → this is where many late buyers could be trapped. 💧 Sell-side liquidity sits cleanly around 3110 → 2590 → 2240 — these are the likely draw targets if correction begins. 🔹 Macroeconomic Context (May–June 2025) 📰 Federal Reserve: Markets expect a possible rate cut in Q3, which still supports gold, but with less surprise. 🌍 Geopolitical Risks: Persistent global instability continues to back the gold rally. 🧮 Equity Overextension: Rotation from risk assets to safety could fuel one more push — or trigger a sharp correction. 💹 Inflation Outlook: Any spike in CPI may trigger further bullish flows — but positioning is already saturated. 🔚 Summary – What's Next? ✅ Trend: Still bullish, but at the final stages of maturity ⚠️ Risk: Sharp rejection likely near 3435–3500 📌 Scenarios to watch: Push into 3435–3500: Final inducement → possible sharp rejection Break below 3110: Opens path to 3038 or even 2630 Major swing buys only valid around 2638 or 2240, if macro retracement triggers 🧠 GoldFxMinds Final Word: The monthly chart shows strength, but we are now deep inside premium, under the shadow of a freshly printed ATH. If June opens with a wick or false breakout above 3435, expect a high-probability retracement toward 3110 or deeper. This is not the time to chase buys blindly — but rather to position smartly at real OBs and FVGs, where structure confirms.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Fibonacci Reversal + Bullish Continuation SeThis chart highlights a potential retracement zone before a major continuation leg to the upside, based on Fibonacci levels and price structure. 📊 Technical Breakdown Current Price: $589.39 Recent High: $595.54 (Fibonacci 1.0) Key Fibonacci Levels: 0.618 → $562.28 (First retracement target) 0.5 → $555.57 0.382 → $547.38 Critical Support: $552.15 (confluence with historical demand & fib zone) Projected Target (1.382 Fib Extension): $629.02 🧠 Probabilistic Interpretation 🔻 Short-term pullback toward $552.15 = 60% probability based on multiple rejections from 0.886/1.0 Fib zones. 🔼 Continuation to $629.02 = 70% probability if price finds support at golden ratio (0.618) or 0.5 zone. 🧠 Structure favors smart money re-accumulation after engineered liquidity grab. 🌐 Macro Context (as of May 31, 2025) Fed Watch: Market pricing in 70% chance of no rate cut in June. July data will be crucial. VIX: Suppressed, but starting to rise—indicative of market hedging short-term volatility. Earnings season: Mixed signals—AI sector outperforms while cyclicals lag. 🚨 Trade Plan for Professionals Watch for price action near $555–552. Enter long upon bullish engulfing or SMC confirmation at demand zone. First TP: $595.50 Final TP: $628.80–$629.02 SL: Below $541.72 (Fib 0.382) 🧠 Final Note This chart reflects a classic Fibonacci retracement & extension structure that institutional traders often monitor. Aligns with DSS and WaverVanir’s discretionary outlook. #SPY #SMP500 #FibLevels #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #WaverVanir #TechnicalAnalysis #FibonacciTrading #TradingView
AMEX:SPY
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
XRP - This is one of many great opportunitiesXRP is reaching a solid level of $2.1. I believe this level will attract investors for the following reasons : Technicals : After breaking the main resistance trendline, XRP is now reaching a solid support level presented in green. Price action : - In accumulating since Jan '25 - Resisted to last market dumps Beyond technicals : - Very strong community - Real services and strong team Market sentiment : The investors are now looking for a strong asset to invest in. They may switch their alts to any coin that shows strenght. For now, XRP is on the top list. Recap : - Risks : bad news from the team , whales dumping , ... - Main Target : $4 - Reward : near 100% BITSTAMP:XRPUSD COINBASE:XRPUSD BYBIT:XRPUSDT.P CRYPTOCAP:XRP KUCOIN:XRPUSDT
Long
by Monstralian
Will Webull replicate Hood's success?IPO Overview 1) Robinhood (Ticker: HOOD) -IPO Date: July 29, 2021 -IPO Price: $38 per share -Initial Valuation: Approximately $32 billion -First Day Performance: Shares closed down over 10%, reflecting investor concerns over valuation and regulatory scrutiny. 2) Webull (Ticker: BULL) -IPO Date: April 2025 (via SPAC merger with SK Growth Opportunities) -Initial Trading Price: $13.25 per share -First Day Performance: Shares surged up to 500%, reaching an intraday high of $79.56, with a market cap nearing $30 billion. Financial Metrics Comparison 1) Robinhood (2021) -Q2 Revenue: $565 million (131% YoY growth) -Net Loss: $502 million -Monthly Active Users: 21.3 million -Assets Under Custody: $102 billion -Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): $112 -Primary Revenue Sources: Payment for order flow, interest on cash balances, and cryptocurrency trading. 2) Webull (Q1 2025) -Revenue: $117.4 million (32% YoY growth) -Adjusted Operating Profit: $28.7 million -Net Profit Margin: 11.1% -User Base: Approximately 24.1 million -Revenue per Trade: Increased from $1.37 to $1.47 -Primary Revenue Sources: Commissions, interest-related income, and trading fees. Valuation Metrics 1) Robinhood -Current Market Cap: Approximately $36.85 billion -P/E Ratio: 23.18 -EPS: $1.75 2) Webull -Post-IPO Market Cap: Approximately $29.6 billion -Enterprise Value/Revenue: 19.67 -Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 445.91 Challenges and Controversies 1) Robinhood -Regulatory Scrutiny: Faced fines and investigations related to payment for order flow practices and outages during high-volatility periods. -User Trust Issues: Criticized for gamifying trading and for its role in the GameStop trading halt. -Security Breaches: Experienced data breaches affecting millions of users. 2) Webull -Regulatory Concerns: Scrutinized for its ties to Chinese parent companies, raising data privacy and national security concerns. -FINRA Fine: Fined $3 million in 2023 for inadequate due diligence in options trading approvals. -State-Level Actions: Banned on government devices in Tennessee due to data security concerns. Future Outlook While both companies have achieved significant user growth and market valuations, their paths diverge in several ways: -Profitability: Webull has demonstrated profitability with a positive net profit margin, whereas Robinhood faced substantial losses post-IPO. -Regulatory Environment: Robinhood's challenges have been primarily domestic, focusing on its business practices, while Webull faces international scrutiny due to its ownership structure. -Market Positioning: Robinhood has diversified its offerings, including retirement accounts and cash management, aiming for a broader financial ecosystem. Webull's focus remains on active traders, which may limit its market expansion. - Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions.
NASDAQ:BULLLong
by bossout10
3