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Fundamental Analysis

EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850). ➡️ Potential scenario: A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380. The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction. 2. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318. This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off. ➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower. 3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY) Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134). Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar. ➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD. 4. COT Report – EUR FX Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long. Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs). ➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts. 5. Seasonality June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD. July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years. ➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms. 6. Trading Outlook 📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820 📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel 🎯 Key Levels: 1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply) 1.1500: first key support 1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC) 📌 Final Conclusion The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by: Extreme retail positioning (80% short), COT pointing to USD recovery, Extended technical structure, Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
12
Daily Outlook | XAUUSD June 30, 2025Hey traders, Fresh week, clean structure. Let’s lock in the key levels and let price do the talking. 🌐 Macro Context It’s a heavy week for USD – all major data drops before Friday: Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing + Powell speaks Wednesday: ADP Employment Thursday: NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services Friday: US holiday – markets closed 📌 This means liquidity will build into Thursday, then fade. Expect gold to stay range-bound early in the week, unless momentum shifts hard today. Volatility should peak around NFP. 🧭 Daily Structure & Bias Gold opened weak under 3287, still below 21EMA and 50EMA. The structure shows lower highs, bearish control, and no signs of strength reclaiming ground. RSI is at 42 — momentum down, but not oversold yet. Unless price breaks back above 3340, sellers stay in control. ✅ D1 Bias: Bearish while under 3340 📌 Key D1 Zones to Watch 🔺 D1 Breaker Block – 3340–3355 Former support, now clean resistance. Includes 50EMA and last failed closes. If price rejects again here, bearish continuation likely. A daily close above 3355 flips short bias. 🔺 D1 Supply + FVG – 3385–3405 Unmitigated imbalance from early June. If price pushes through 3355, this is the next upside magnet. Good spot for first reaction. ⚖️ D1 Decision Zone – 3287–3265 Current price zone. Multiple past reactions. A daily close below 3265 confirms breakdown. Holding above = more choppy range. 🟢 D1 Reaction Shelf – 3210–3180 Minor support zone from April candle bodies. Can slow price, but not strong enough for reversal on its own. 🟢 D1 Demand Block – 3155–3120 First major HTF demand. Includes 200EMA, strong structure, and previous breakout base. If price sells into it fast, watch for rejection — but only with confirmation. 🟢 D1 Macro Demand – 3090–3055 Final line of macro defense. Clean imbalance + demand from February. Valid only if sentiment breaks post-NFP. ✅ Final Summary • Below 3265 = structure breaks → opens 3180 • 3155–3120 = real support zone • Below 3120 = macro shift risk • Reclaiming 3340 = short bias invalid • Break above 3385 = continuation possible 📌 Today is all about the close. No confirmation = no trade. Thursday is the real trigger — be positioned, not exposed. — 📣 If this gave you clarity and structure, drop a 🔥, share your bias, and follow GoldFxMinds for sniper plans with zero fluff — only clean, confirmed price action.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by GoldFxMinds
Weekly Outlook | XAUUSD June 30 – July 4, 2025Welcome to a new trading week. Let’s break down the gold chart from a clean, high-timeframe perspective. No setups, no noise – just structure, momentum, and zones that matter. 🌐 Macro Overview This week concentrates all key USD events into one tight window: Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing + Fed Chair Powell speech Wednesday: ADP Employment Thursday: NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI Friday: US holiday – markets closed 📌 This means liquidity and momentum will peak by Thursday, then fade into the weekend. Expect gold to stay in range until macro data breaks direction. 🧠 Weekly Structure & Momentum Gold remains in a bullish macro structure, but price is hesitating below 3300. Last two weekly candles printed long upper wicks with no body follow-through – clear sign of distribution, not continuation. We’re still trading above the 21EMA Weekly, which maintains the uptrend’s integrity. RSI (14): sitting at ~59 → no real momentum breakout, just consolidation. 📌 The chart is not reversing, but it’s also not trending anymore. We’re in a decision zone. 📍 Key Weekly Areas of Interest 3430 – 3500 → W1 Imbalance + March High Sweep This is a wide weekly imbalance left unfilled since March, paired with the prior 2024 swing high. 3500 is also a psychological round number. If price pushes into this area, it becomes a liquidity target, not an entry – unless a clear rejection forms. 3330 – 3230 → Weekly Decision Block This is the current consolidation range. It includes multiple W1 candle bodies, wick highs/lows, and volume cluster. – Weekly close above 3330 = likely bullish continuation toward 3430+ – Weekly close below 3230 = confirms weakness and opens path to the next major support 3080 – 2970 → Weekly Demand + Fib 38% Clean block of accumulation from April–May, aligned with the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 rally. This is where we’d expect institutional buying interest on a deeper pullback. A weekly candle with a long wick into this zone + strong close would reset bullish structure. 2850 – 2720 → Last Macro Demand Zone This zone includes the 50EMA weekly, a weekly FVG from late 2023, and unmitigated demand before the full 2024 breakout. If price ever gets here, we’re no longer in a healthy uptrend – we’re correcting structurally. But this zone will matter if that happens. 🧭 Summary & Expectations Gold is still inside a large weekly range. Until we break above 3330 or below 3230, it’s just consolidation on the HTF. Thursday’s data will decide the candle. Don’t predict direction — let the W1 close speak. 📌 Final Notes: Above 3330 = room toward 3430–3500 Below 3230 = risk opens toward 3080–2970 Inside = no directional edge — stay reactive, not biased 🔥 If you enjoy this clean breakdown: hit that 🚀, follow & drop your thoughts below! Stay sharp traders — we execute with precision. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
1
BITCOIN → Pause for consolidation before growth. 115K?BINANCE:BTCUSDT focus on the structure on D1. The market is forming local resistance and consolidation after growth. The fundamental background is positive. BTC is following the SP500 The market is recovering in line with the stock market (SP500, NQ) after the de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East. The fall in the DXY is also providing support. Technically, the focus is on the consolidation phase after the distribution triggered by a false breakout of 100K. The price stopped before the resistance at 108100 and rolled back to 106500, confirming the boundaries of the local trading range, the essence of which is a pause for a breather before a possible continuation of growth. The structure on D1 is compression towards resistance. The trigger is 108100, and a breakout of this level could trigger distribution towards 110500 and ATH. Despite the fact that the market is under a cascade of resistance (resistance: 108100, 110400, 11900 (ATH)), an important nuance is that after strong growth, the price moved into accumulation in the 100K-110K range on D1-W1, and there are no reasons for a decline yet. Resistance levels: 108100, 108900, 110400 Support levels: 106500, 104650 If the market structure within 106500 - 108100 remains unchanged and BTC continues to storm the consolidation resistance in the “compression to level” format and stick to the level, the chances of a breakout will increase. I do not rule out the possibility of a pullback to 106500, 105650 before a possible rise to ATH. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
29
AVAX/USDT - H4 - Wedge Breakout (29.06.2025)The AVAX/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 21.77 2nd Resistance – 24.35 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
29
AUD/USD: The Rebound TradeThe Australian dollar (also known as the Aussie Battler) looks set to continue its recent bounce. Inflation is now under control and monetary easing will continue to support aggregate demand across the economy. While rate cuts are dovish, the underlying economy is still strong and, as we will explain below, the fiscal situation is shaping up better than expected. Stability is in. The real action, though, is in the US. Unemployment is creeping up. Jobless claims are ticking higher. Existing home sales are falling. The US consumer is feeling the pinch. That puts pressure on the Fed. Rate cuts are back in the conversation. Markets are already pricing in the first move later this year. The US dollar is losing its grip. AUD/USD recently tested its 200 day moving average and held firm. That’s more than just a technical level. It’s a psychological line in the sand. The Aussie held its ground. There’s more. Australia’s fiscal position is likely to come in stronger than expected. Mining exports are holding up. Volumes are rising. That supports the budget bottom line and underpins the Aussie’s credibility as a resource backed currency. This is in stark contrast to most of the developed world, where peers are running large deficits. This isn’t just about central banks. The global economy is shifting gears. China is stabilising. Industrial demand is returning. Commodity prices are finding a floor. That’s key for the Aussie. It’s still a commodity linked currency. As iron ore and copper pick up, the AUD should follow. There’s a window here. Over the next twelve months, the AUD has room to move higher, testing the 0.7000 range. Not because Australia is booming, but also because the US is slowing. The Fed is running out of steam. That flips the dynamic. We’re moving from USD strength to USD softness. The setup is clear. A soft landing in the US. A stable China. Commodities firming. And an RBA on hold. That’s a cocktail for AUD strength. The bounce has just begun. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
Long
by Blueberry
1
TURBO/USDT - H4 - Wedge Breakout (29.06.2025)The TURBO/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 0.005173 2nd Resistance – 0.005994 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
14
All Time Schiff Pitchfork: ETH to $26k this cycleEthereum’s All-Time Schiff Pitchfork Points to $26,000 Top This Cycle What if I told you Ethereum’s long-term trajectory already contains the roadmap to its next parabolic peak—and it's hiding in plain sight? By applying an all-time Schiff Pitchfork to ETH’s historical price action, we uncover a channel of truth that has guided Ethereum’s macro moves since its inception. And according to this structure, the upper bound this cycle sits around $26,000. Yes, $26K ETH is not only possible—it’s technically aligned. 🧭 Schiff Pitchfork: A Forgotten Tool With Powerful Insight While traditional pitchforks center around initial anchor points, the Schiff Pitchfork adjusts the median line to better reflect price momentum and curvature over time. For Ethereum, it captures macro cycles and logarithmic price evolution with eerie accuracy. We anchor the pitchfork as follows: Point A: March 2020 COVID bottom (~$90) Point B: May 2021 cycle top (~$4,400) Point C: June 2022 bottom (~$880) This sets a median growth trajectory with upper and lower bounds that have so far contained all of Ethereum’s major rallies and retracements. 📈 The Pitchfork Speaks: $26K = Upper Rail This Cycle The upper boundary of the pitchfork intersects around $26,000–$27,000 between November 2025 and January 2026 This aligns with: Cycle timing: Ethereum typically peaks ~8 months after Bitcoin Macro window: Projected end of global liquidity expansion before potential recession ETF catalyst: BlackRock’s staking ETF + TradFi inflows could supercharge final leg ETH/BTC breakout zone: Suggests ETH will outperform BTC in the late stage of the cycle If Ethereum follows the historical path set by prior cycles (2017, 2021), and this channel remains valid, then $26K ETH becomes a technical magnet, not a fantasy. 🧠 Why $26K Isn’t Just a Chart Target Let’s break down what would justify that kind of valuation: Factor Supporting Insight 🟢 Staking ETF Institutional demand + ETH supply removed from float 🔥 Deflationary Tokenomics Post-1559 burn + staking = net negative issuance ⚙️ L2 Ecosystem Maturity Rollups, zkEVMs, and restaking create multi-chain ETH demand 🌐 Global Liquidity Window Fed cuts + soft macro conditions = floodgates open 📈 ETH/BTC Ratio Inversion Signals capital rotation to high beta assets 🛑 Risks to the $26K Scenario Regulatory delays on staking ETF Broader market crash or macro liquidity crunch ETH/BTC fails to break out, Bitcoin dominance remains too high Ethereum scaling and L2 fragmentation cannibalizes fee market faster than expected 🎯 Price Zones on the Schiff Pitchfork Zone Price Range Interpretation Lower Bound $3,000–$4,000 Final dip buy zone (if macro spooks) Median Line $10,000–$14,000 Base case target with ETF flows Upper Rail $25,000–$26,500 Max cycle top (Q4 2025–Q1 2026) 🧬 Conclusion: The Channel Has Spoken The Schiff Pitchfork isn’t a magic wand—it’s a map. But Ethereum has respected this structure since 2020, and it’s now approaching the most important confluence zone in its history. With ETFs, L2 scaling, deflationary supply, and a maturing institutional narrative, ETH has the fundamental firepower to make $26K real—not just chart art. This may be the final cycle where ETH 4-digit prices are possible. 📊 Follow for more Ethereum macro cycle analysis, ETH/BTC tracking, and altseason models. 📍 Chart available on request—drop a comment if you'd like the TradingView link with Pitchfork drawn #Ethereum #ETHUSD #PitchforkAnalysis #SchiffPitchfork #CryptoCycles #ETHPrediction #Altseason #ETHChart #ETH26K
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by DanOxAm
3
Ethereum’s $10K Breakout Is in Sight — BRock's Staking ETF July🚨 Ethereum’s $10K Breakout Is in Sight — BlackRock’s Staking ETF Could Trigger a Historic Supply Squeeze All eyes are on the SEC’s pending decision regarding BlackRock’s Ethereum Staking ETF, and if approval lands in July 2025, it could trigger one of the most powerful supply-side shocks in Ethereum’s history. This isn’t just about price speculation. It’s about structural demand meeting vanishing supply. 🟢 Why This ETF Is a Game-Changer BlackRock isn’t just filing for an Ethereum ETF—it’s filing for a staking-enabled ETF. That’s a huge distinction. This means: ETH held in the ETF will be staked, earning real yield Staked ETH is locked and removed from circulation Institutional capital gains exposure to yield + price upside Ethereum becomes a yield-bearing digital commodity It’s no longer just “digital oil.” It’s now digitized yield, and institutions are hungry for real yield in a low-rate environment. 📈 Technical Setup Is Bullish ETH is coiling under its former ATH of ~$4,800 RSI shows no major bearish divergence ETH/BTC ratio shows signs of breakout after long consolidation Bitcoin dominance is peaking → altseason rotation imminent Add a major ETF approval catalyst to this technical structure, and ETH could move explosively. 🔮 Ethereum Price Forecasts Post-Approval Scenario Price Target Timeframe Conservative $6,000–$7,000 2–4 weeks post-approval Upside / Momentum $9,000–$10,000 Q3 2025 Supercycle Case $12K–$15K Q4 2025–Q1 2026 Why $10K ETH is Realistic: Bitcoin’s ETF sparked $15B+ in inflows in <6 months ETH has smaller market cap, so similar flows have outsized impact Staking ETF removes ETH from float, making price reflexively bullish TradFi gets exposure to yield + deflationary asset in one product 🔥 This Could Be Ethereum’s “GBTC Moment” Remember how Grayscale’s GBTC product in 2020 created a reflexive premium and drove massive BTC inflows? This is version 2.0, with yield attached. And instead of retail FOMO, we now have pension funds, RIAs, and endowments allocating via regulated ETF rails. That’s not hype. That’s capital rotation—on-chain. 🛑 Risks to Watch SEC delays or waters down staking component Macro headwinds (rate volatility, geopolitical shock) ETF approval gets front-run and sells the news But even with these risks, the ETH supply structure is fundamentally stronger than during prior cycles. The burn is active. The float is tightening. And now TradFi wants in. ✅ Conclusion: July Could Be Ethereum’s Tipping Point With a BlackRock staking ETF on deck, a macro environment ripe for a Fed rate cut, and Ethereum sitting under its ATH with rising momentum… $10K ETH isn’t a moonshot—it’s the logical next leg. If approved in July, Ethereum may never trade below $5,000 again. 🔔 Follow for updates on ETH ETF flows, ETH/BTC ratio breakouts, and altseason timing models. 📊 Comment below—what’s your Ethereum price target if the ETF is approved? #Ethereum #ETHUSD #CryptoETF #BlackRock #Altseason #ETHAnalysis #CryptoNews #TradingView
Long
by DanOxAm
1
RSI Flashes Warning on EURUSD: Critical Level Under Watch!Good morning traders, If the EURUSD pair breaks below the 1.16729 level due to an RSI divergence, the next potential target could be around 1.16093. Keep in mind that a break below 1.16729 may also signal a potential trend reversal. I've marked the pivot points for you on the chart for better clarity. Additionally, it's crucial to keep an eye on current economic data and news releases as part of your fundamental analysis. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
by TraderTilki
2
"PYPL Money Grab – Ride the Bull Wave Before the Reversal!"🔥 PAYPAL HEIST ALERT: Bullish Loot Grab Before the Trap! 🔥 (Thief Trading Tactics) 👋 Greetings, Market Bandits & Cash Pirates! 🏴‍☠️💰 This is not financial advice—just a strategic robbery blueprint for PayPal (PYPL). 🎯 THE MASTER PLAN (Day/Swing Heist) 🔑 Entry (Bullish Swipe): *"The vault’s cracked—bullish loot is ripe! Enter at ANY PRICE or snipe pullbacks (15m/30m swing lows/highs)."* 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route): Thief’s SL: Recent swing low candle body/wick (3H TF). Your SL = Your Risk. Adjust for lot size & multiple orders. 📈 Target: 82.00 (or escape earlier if bears ambush!) ⚡ SCALPERS’ NOTE: Longs ONLY. Hit quick profits? Run. Still hungry? Ride the swing heist! Trailing SL = Your Getaway Car. 🚗💨 ⚠️ DANGER ZONE (Yellow MA): Overbought | Consolidation | Bear Trap | Trend Reversal Risk! Take profits early—greed gets caught! 🏆💸 📡 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP (DYOR!): Check: COT Reports | Macro Trends | On-Chain Data | Sentiment Shifts 🔍🔗 (.Linnkkss. 👉 is there to read!) 🚨 NEWS ALERT (Volatility Warning!): Avoid new trades during news. Trailing SL = Survive the Chaos. 💥 BOOST THE HEIST! 👊 Smash "Like" & "Boost" to fuel our next robbery! More loot = More plans! 🚀 🔔 Stay tuned—next heist coming soon! 🤑🎉
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by Thief_Trader
Canadian National Railway has huge upside potentialA decades old trendline still unbroken after months of correction, the Canadian economy seems to be in a great position considering the circumstances. After conducting a simple technical analysis predicting a second leg up the upside potential is enormous if I am right about this. The downside is I am looking at a monthly chart so this will need to be a position trade or long term investment to achieve the desired results. Even if my target is reached I will likely hold onto the stock for years afterwards because the company will continue to make money. The intrinsic value for CNI is between $120 and $225 so it is well below the intrinsic value making any new position on it now at a bargain deal. I will likely be allocating a significant portion of my portfolio to it in the next few days to weeks.
NYSE:CNILong
by Capitalist_Zach
BellRing Brands (BRBR) Weekly Gartley@ Key Levels + Kijun SignalIn March 2025, I previously took a look at this budding public company BellRing Brands, Inc. for a long-term investment horizon. It was priced around 74 at the time, then the fall of the overall market status put additional pressure on its stock, although the company itself is booming and meets my fundamental parameters. See the following: Since then, we had an awesome and confident forward guidance from the company in the last earnings call in May 2025: bellring.com Now, looking at BellRing Brands (BRBR) once again, on a weekly chart, key technical patterns have formed that look very promising and solid with its many confluences. TECHNICALS: WEEKLY: Many weekly confluences have appeared from a technical perspective. Here is what I see: (1) There is a clear Bullish Gartley-ish pattern in a weekly retracement to 50% followed by a retracement to 78.6% of a preceding move. (2) The price is around 78% fib support. (3) Horizontal area of support: The 50 - 58 area is a whole prior area of horizontal support that was a prior resistance area back in July 2024, and the price has landed back on that area. You know what we say as technicians and investors: past resistance = future support. (4) MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence (weekly) (5) The price tested the weekly cloud and broke through; however, bullish extremes were triggered when that happen, which is rare based on all my personal studies. In fact, the current level 55-58 marks the end of a bearish double top cycle that began around March 2025. (6) A weekly Doji with volume support (classified as a "dVa" in my old notes of Volume Price Analysis). Here is the weekly chart: MONTHY: BRBR is poised to rally Q3 and Q4 2025. We have a potential monthly bounce of the kijun forthcoming along with good fundamentals going forward supporting the growth of the company in the long term. ** potential monthly Kijun Trend Bounce ** Here is the monthly chart: Target: Currently, the price is 58.54. My tentative target is around 140 by March 2026. Thus, with all the fundamental support, good forward-looking guidance, and the technical I believe that BellRing Brands (BRBR) is at a great price right now. It is prime to continue its stretch of growth for 2025. Looking forward with investor foresight, the case for BellRing Brands and its stock (BRBR) is not only a high-probability outlook of positivity, but a high odds outcome of technical price pattern success. What a great discount.... :)
NYSE:BRBRLong
by Rocketman
BRBR Power Bar and Protein Shakes Shakin' It UP!Fundamentals: Meets my parameters for investing long-term. Technicals: Daily: ExDiv1 Triples 161 extension, equal legs and weekly key fib meeting at the same spot (confluence) New Crown high formed on the daily Weekly: uHd+hammerw/ d3 volume @ key fib pullback morning star Met monthly average range Kijun signal extreme indicator Target 140 (tentatively), but will hold forever if I possible Tentative rethinking point to buy more investment if it falls is about 48.
NYSE:BRBRLong
by Rocketman
6
Down the road - Gold Outlook June 30 - July 24, 2025FX_IDC:XAUUSD 📰 The past weeks has been a wild ride for gold prices, caught between the fiery conflict in the Middle East and a deluge of crucial economic data from the U.S. 📈 Adding to this, a detailed technical analysis provides a deeper look into gold's immediate future. **Geopolitical Drama Unfolds & Peace Prevails!** 🕊️ ceasefire negotiations. Initially, gold was shrouded in uncertainty 🌫️ due to the Iran-Israel war, with markets bracing for potential U.S. involvement and a full-blown escalation. Daily tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel kept everyone on edge, and the question of U.S. intervention remained a nail-biter 😬, though President Trump did announce a 14-day "timeout". Then came the dramatic twist on June 21st: "Operation Midnighthammer" saw the U.S. unleash bunker-buster bombs on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. 💥 Short time later, the U.S. declared mission accomplished, stating their goal of destroying these sites was achieved, and no further attacks would follow. Iran's response, "Operation Annunciation of Victory," on the following Monday, involved missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. 🚀 Interestingly, these attacks were pre-announced, allowing for safe evacuations and thankfully, no casualties. 🙏 The biggest surprise came from President Trump as he declared, "Congratulations world, it's time for peace!" 🎉 He then brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which, despite being fragile, largely held, leading to the war's end.🤝 Both nations, as expected, officially claimed victory – a common move to satisfy their citizens. 🏅 Personally, I was genuinely surprised that the U.S.President mediated ceasefire, actually brought the conflict to a close – but it's a welcome outcome! 🙏 **Economic Data & Fed's Steady Hand** 💹🏛️ The cessation of hostilities triggered a steady downward slide in gold prices from June 24th to 27th. ⬇️ This dip initially met some market resistance but it ultimately prevailed, especially with the release of mixed U.S. economic data, which, despite being varied, was generally interpreted positively by the market. The spotlight also shone on the Federal Reserve, with several representatives speaking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell undergoing a two-day Senate hearing. 🎤👨‍⚖️ Powell meticulously explained the Fed's rationale for holding interest rates steady, despite market pressures. 🤷 However, recent whispers suggest the Federal Reserve might actually cut rates in September! 😮 ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 India / Pakistan Pakistan rejected claims that it supported militant groups active in Indian Kashmir. India issued a formal protest but reported no fresh border clashes during the week. Outlook 🔮: De-escalation is possible in the short term. However, unresolved disputes over water rights (Indus Treaty) could reignite tensions. Gaza Conflict Heavy Israeli airstrikes killed dozens in Gaza, including civilians near aid centers. The UN warned that U.S.-backed aid systems are failing. Humanitarian corridors remain blocked. Outlook 🔮: Ceasefire talks may resume in July, but success depends on international pressure and safe humanitarian access. Russia / Ukraine Russia advanced 36 sq mi in eastern Ukraine, deploying outdated T-62 tanks. Ukraine reinforced defensive lines, aided by Western military packages. Outlook 🔮: The front remains volatile. Sustained Western support will be key to halting further Russian gains. U.S. – China Trade War A breakthrough deal was signed for China to fast-track rare-earth exports to the U.S. Talks on tech transfer and tariffs continue behind closed doors. Outlook 🔮: A phased de-escalation is possible, but deep trust issues linger, especially over semiconductors and AI. 🌐 Global Trade War Several countries, including Brazil and Thailand, imposed fresh restrictions on Chinese imports, echoing the U.S. stance. Global supply chains remain fragmented. Outlook 🔮: Trade blocs like the EU and Mercosur may take on greater importance as countries hedge against rising protectionism. Trump vs. Powell Fed Chair Powell resisted political pressure, stating rate cuts are unlikely before September. Trump called him “stubborn” and demanded immediate easing. Outlook 🔮: The Fed’s independence is under strain. If Trump wins re-election, major policy shifts could follow. 📈 U.S. Inflation Despite tariffs, core inflation remains elevated. Powell warned of persistent price pressures. Trump insists the Fed should cut rates to boost growth. Outlook 🔮: A rate cut later in 2025 is possible—if labor market data weakens. Until then, inflation will remain politically explosive. ## Technical View 📐📈 **Current Market Context:** Gold plummeted to $3,273.67 USD/t.oz on June 27, 2025, marking a 1.65% drop from the previous day, which confirms the strong bearish momentum. The price action shows a significant retreat from recent highs around $3,400. **ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis:** * **Market Structure:** The trend is clearly bearish, with a definitive break of structure (BOS) to the downside. * **Order Blocks:** Several bearish order blocks have been identified at prior resistance levels, specifically in the $3,380-$3,400 range. * **Fair Value Gaps (FVG):** The aggressive sell-off has created multiple imbalances, particularly in the $3,350-$3,320 range. * **Liquidity Pools:** Buy-side liquidity above $3,400 has been swept. Sell-side liquidity is now accumulating below the $3,270 lows, which is the current target zone. * **Session Analysis:** The London session showed aggressive selling, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the New York session. The Asia session could see consolidation or further declines. * **Smart Money Concepts:** Heavy selling pressure suggests "smart money" distribution. There's been strong bearish displacement from $3,380 down to $3,270, indicating the market is currently in a "sell program" phase. **Gann Analysis:** * **Gann Angles & Time Cycles:** The primary 1x1 Gann angle has been broken, pointing to continued weakness. Key price squares indicate resistance at $3,375 (25²) and support at $3,249 (57²). Daily cycles suggest a potential turning point around June 30-July 1, while weekly cycles indicate continued pressure through early July. * **Gann Levels:** * Resistance: $3,375, $3,400, $3,481 (59²) * Support: $3,249, $3,136, $3,025 **Fibonacci Analysis:** * **Key Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low):** * 78.6%: $3,378 (Strong resistance) * 61.8%: $3,348 (Key resistance zone) * 50.0%: $3,325 (Psychological level) * 38.2%: $3,302 (Minor resistance) * 23.6%: $3,285 (Current area of interest) * **Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets):** * 127.2%: $3,245 * 161.8%: $3,195 * 261.8%: $3,095 * **Time-Based Fibonacci:** The next significant time cluster is July 2-3, 2025, with a major cycle completion expected around July 15-17, 2025. **Institutional Levels & Volume Analysis:** * **Key Institutional Levels:** * Major Resistance: $3,400 (psychological + institutional) * Secondary Resistance: $3,350-$3,375 (order block cluster) * Primary Support: $3,250-$3,270 (institutional accumulation zone) * Major Support: $3,200 (monthly pivot area) * **Volume Profile Analysis:** * High Volume Node (HVN): $3,320-$3,340 (fair value area) * Low Volume Node (LVN): $3,280-$3,300 (potential acceleration zone) * Point of Control (POC): Currently around $3,330 **Central Bank & Hedge Fund Levels:** Based on recent COT data and institutional positioning, heavy resistance is seen at $3,400-$3,430, where institutions likely distributed. An accumulation zone for "smart money" re-entry is anticipated at $3,200-$3,250. **Cycle Timing Analysis:** * **Short-Term Cycles (Intraday):** Bearish momentum is expected to continue for another 12-18 hours. A daily cycle low is likely between June 29-30, with a potential reversal zone on July 1-2 for the 3-day cycle. * **Medium-Term Cycles:** The current weekly cycle is in week 3 of a 4-week decline. The monthly cycle indicates a mid-cycle correction within a larger uptrend. For the quarterly cycle, Q3 2025 could see a major low formation. * **Seasonal Patterns:** July-August is typically a weaker period for gold ("Summer Doldrums"). September has historically been strong for precious metals ("September Effect"), setting up for a potential major move higher in Q4 2025 ("Year-End Rally"). **Trading Strategy & Levels:** * **Bearish Scenario (Primary):** * Entry: Sell rallies into the $3,320-$3,350 resistance zone. * Targets: $3,250, $3,200, $3,150. * Stop Loss: Above $3,380. * **Bullish Scenario (Secondary):** * Entry: Buy support at $3,250-$3,270 with confirmation. * Targets: $3,320, $3,375, $3,400. * Stop Loss: Below $3,230. **Key Events to Watch:** * **US PCE Data:** Fresh downside risks could emerge ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release. * **Fed Communications:** Any hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could further pressure gold. * **Geopolitical Developments:** Ongoing global events could trigger safe-haven demand. **Conclusion:** The technical picture for gold suggests continued short-term weakness, with the metal testing its 2025 trend line at $3,290 following last week's rejection at the $3,430 resistance. However, the longer-term outlook remains constructive, given gold's robust performance year-to-date. Key support at $3,250-$3,270 will be crucial in determining the next significant price movement. **Upcoming Week's Economic Calendar (June 29 - July 4, 2025):** 🗓️🌍 🗓️ Get ready for these important economic events (EDT) * ** Sunday , June 29, 2025** * 21:30 CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 49.6, Previous: 49.5 * ** Monday , June 30, 2025** * 09:45 USD: Chicago PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 42.7, Previous: 40.5 * ** Tuesday , July 1, 2025** * 05:00 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jun) - Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.9% * 09:30 USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 52.0, Previous: 52.0 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 48.8, Previous: 48.5 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 70.2, Previous: 69.4 * 10:00 USD: JOLTS Job Openings (May) - Forecast: 7.450M, Previous: 7.391M * ** Wednesday , July 2, 2025** * 08:15 USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) - Forecast: 80K, Previous: 37K * 10:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories - Forecast: -5.836M * ** Thursday , July 3, 2025** * Holiday: United States - Independence Day (Early close at 13:00) 🇺🇸⏰ * 08:30 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4% * 08:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 239K, Previous: 236K * 08:30 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) - Forecast: 129K, Previous: 139K * 08:30 USD: Unemployment Rate (Jun) - Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2% * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 53.1, Previous: 53.1 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 50.3, Previous: 49.9 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 68.7 * ** Friday , July 4, 2025** * All Day: Holiday - United States - Independence Day 🎆 **Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Week** 🔮💰 Given last week's market movements, there's a strong likelihood that the downward trend in gold prices will continue.🔽 However, fresh news can always flip the script! 🔄 As of now, I expect gold to dip further to $3255 by mid-next week. Yet, a brief rebound towards $3300 isn't out of the question before a potential drop to $3200 by week's end or early the following week. 🤞 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
BTC/USD 1DHello everyone, let's look at the 1D BTC chart to USD, in this situation we can see how the 3rd peak formed us and we are currently fighting to maintain the price or a potential output up if we do not see a try to break out, you can expect a stronger relief. However, let's start by defining goals for the near future the price must face: T1 = 108376 $ T2 = 110473 $ Т3 = 112061 $ Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market: SL1 = 105444 $ SL2 = 103637 $ SL3 = 100644 $ SL4 = 98285 Looking at the RSI indicator, we see As we entered the upper part of the indicator again, however, there is still a place to try to grow.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
1
Realio ($RIO): The Most Undervalued RWA Gem 500-1000x GrowthHow a $40M Underdog Could Become the BlackRock x Nasdaq x Coinbase of Tokenized Private Assets⚡️ TL;DR Realio is building the rails for a tokenized financial future: real estate, private equity, venture funds, private credit, and compliant secondary markets via a FINRA-registered ATS (tZERO). While the market focuses on flashy RWA narratives like Ethena or Ondo, Realio has quietly launched the infrastructure layer that will serve as the picks-and-shovels for trillions of off-chain assets coming on-chain. And at a $40M valuation, this is arguably the highest asymmetric upside in crypto RWAs right now. 📊 The Market Is 1000x Bigger Than People Realize Before diving into Realio's product stack, let’s contextualize just how big the RWA opportunity really is: Asset Class Global Market Size U.S. Market Size Real Estate (res + com) $613T $200T Private Equity + VC $11.7T $5.6T Private Credit $1.5T $1T Art, Collectibles, Gold $2T+ $500B+ Treasuries / Yield Funds $25T $7T Just 1% of these assets moving on-chain = a $6T tokenized asset market—and someone needs to issue, custody, manage, and trade those RWAs. That’s where Realio shines. 🧱 Realio: Infrastructure, Not Just a Narrative ✅ Live Platform White-label issuance, investor onboarding (KYC/AML), compliance layers, and integration with tZERO ATS for U.S.-compliant trading. ✅ Asset Agnostic Real estate, equity, credit, commodities — Realio can tokenize any private asset, and already has with deals like St. Regis Aspen. ✅ Native Tokens NYSE:RIO – governance, protocol-level staking LSE:RST – smart compliance & validation layer $LMX – liquidity mining token for ecosystem bootstrap 🧮 Base Case: $4.1B Market Cap Breakdown (100x from today) This is based on modest adoption across each vertical using conservative serviceable addressable market (SAM) assumptions: Vertical Realio Capture Revenue Potential Market Cap Contribution 🇺🇸 Real Estate (res + com) $2B tokenized $30M $300M 🧠 Private Equity / Venture $2.5B AUM $50M $600M 🔁 tZERO ATS Trading Volume $500M volume $7.5M $150M 🏦 Private Credit / Debt $200M AUM $6M $100M 🛰 RST Protocol Infrastructure N/A TBD $150M 💧 LMX Token / Liquidity Layer N/A N/A $200M Subtotal — — $1.5B Platform Premium (2.7x) — — $2.6B BASE CASE MARKET CAP — — $4.1B Even a 0.1–0.5% share in each vertical gets you there. But that’s not the moonshot. 🚀 Upside Case: $25.4B+ Market Cap This scenario assumes: RWA market on-chain penetration hits 1–2% globally Realio becomes a top 3 infrastructure player for compliant RWA issuance and trading Broader institutional adoption and LP demand for secondary liquidity Upside Capture Table Vertical Realio Capture Revenue Potential Valuation Multiple Upside Market Cap 🇺🇸 Real Estate (0.1% of $200T) $200B tokenized $3B+ in fees 10x $8.0B 🧠 Private Equity (0.5% of $5.6T) $28B tokenized $560M 12x $6.7B 🏦 Private Credit (0.3% of $1T) $3B tokenized $60M 10x $600M 🔁 Secondary ATS Volume $5B traded/year $75M 15x $1.1B 🛰 RST Protocol Node Ecosystem Global validator infra N/A Platform value $4.0B 💧 LMX Liquidity + DEX Stack Curated RWA trading hub Network effects Ecosystem value $5.0B Upside Total — — — $25.4B 🧠 Why Realio > Ethena, Ondo, Lumia (in Scope + Compliance) Project Use Case Compliance Ready Live Assets Secondary Trading Valuation (Jun '25) Realio Tokenization Infra + Trading ✅ U.S. Ready ✅ Yes ✅ tZERO ATS $40M Ethena Synthetic USD + yield ❌ Offshore only ❌ Derivatives ❌ $1.2B Ondo Tokenized Treasuries ✅ Yes ✅ Yes ✅ Coinbase $1.5B Lumia Treasury yield stablecoin ✅ Yes Early stage ❌ $180M 🔮 Final Thoughts: Bet on the Rails, Not the Train Every major financial revolution is won not by the speculative use cases—but by the infrastructure that enables them: AWS powered the cloud revolution Ethereum powered the DeFi boom Realio could power the $10T+ tokenized private asset wave The base case? A 100x. The upside case? A Coinbase-style rerating to $25B+ as the market matures. And today? You can buy NYSE:RIO before the herd even notices. Disclosure: This is not investment advice. Author holds $RIO.
Long
by DanOxAm
2