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Fundamental Analysis

When Charts Lie: How Fundamentals Rescued My Forex TradingEvery trader knows the frustration: your analysis is technically flawless, but the market moves against you. I learned this brutally in Q1 2024 when my USD/CAD short—backed by textbook bearish divergence and order block rejection—got steamrolled by a 190-pip rally after Canada’s surprise oil export announcement. The Blind Spot in Pure Technicals Price action traders often dismiss fundamentals as "noise," but three scenarios consistently break chart-based systems: Policy Surprises (SNB removing EUR/CHF floor) Geopolitical Shocks (Rubles during Ukraine invasion) Structural Shifts (BOJ abandoning YCC) These events share one trait: they change the market’s fundamental DNA, invalidating historical patterns. A Practical Filter I need to train myself to do something like this: To overlay two fundamental checks before technical entries: Central Bank Calendar No trades 12 hours before scheduled meetings Monitor yield spreads (10YR US vs. DE) Commodity Links AUD/USD: Iron ore inventories USD/CAD: WTI backwardation Case Study: April 2024 GBP/USD Technicals suggested continuation above 1.2700 Fundamental red flag: UK real wages shrinking Outcome: False breakout, 140-pip drop Your Turn Try this today: On your next trade, ask: Is there scheduled event risk? Does this align with rate expectations? Are commodities/equities confirming? The goal isn’t perfection—it’s avoiding obvious mismatches. For me, I read my own words on what should be done, and most probably, I won't do it. I think the above is too much. I believe there must be an easier way to merge Technical and Fundamental Analysis.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
Bitcoin's Growth Potential Intact Despite Short-Term UncertainyBitcoin has rallied to $108k after sweeping liquidity below $98k, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The cryptocurrency's fundamentals and structural trends suggest room for growth, but it appears to have exhausted its momentum, entering a consolidation or accumulation phase. Technically, the 4-hour chart is limited, but a potential correction to $104k-$103k could occur before further growth. For now, traders can focus on short-term buys and sells in the $106k-$108k range, awaiting clearer direction.
by KINGSLIGHTFX
XAUUSD D1 Forecast: Gold at Pivotal 325x Support What's Next for the Yellow Metal? Today, we're zooming out to examine the broader picture for Gold (XAUUSD) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Our latest analysis indicates that Gold has encountered a very strong, critical support level around the 325x region. This is a pivotal point that could significantly influence Gold's medium to long-term direction! 🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: The Underlying Forces Influencing Gold While we've observed a degree of USD weakness stemming from speculations around the Federal Reserve (such as the rumours regarding Jerome Powell's replacement) and expectations of interest rate cuts, these factors haven't fully countered Gold's recent decline on the daily chart. Furthermore, the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to temper Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Nevertheless, the current price action at the robust 325x support level presents a significant technical signal. The impact of forthcoming US macroeconomic data (particularly the PCE Price Index on Friday) and speeches from FOMC members will be crucial in confirming or negating our projected movements for Gold. Should positive news for Gold align with this support holding, it could act as a potent catalyst. 📊 XAUUSD D1 Technical Analysis: Projecting Gold's Next Move Given that Gold has reached strong support at 325x, we can anticipate the following scenarios: Bounce from 325x (Potential Upside Phase): If the 325x area (which reinforces the 3264.400 support from image_e9d325.png) holds firm, we expect a strong reaction and an upward move for Gold. The initial target for this bounce would be the 332x region, aligning with resistance levels 3313.737 - 3330.483 from our previous analysis. On a broader timeframe (as illustrated in image_83845c.png), this corresponds to the resistance zone around 3326.022. This 332x area might represent a continuation pattern, suggesting it could be a corrective rally before the resumption of the larger trend. Resumption of Downtrend (After Reaching 332x): Once Gold reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and exhibits bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear top formation), we anticipate a resumption of the downward movement. The next major target for this decline would be the 317x area, which correlates well with the strong support at 3173.052 on the larger timeframe (as depicted in image_83845c.png). 🎯 XAUUSD D1 Trading Plan: Your Long-Term Strategy Ahead! Considering the current D1 analysis, here's our actionable plan: 1. BUY PHASE (Bounce from Support): Entry: Observe price reaction in the 325x - 326x zone (specifically 3264.400). Only consider buying if there are clear bullish confirmations (e.g., a confirmed bullish pattern on the daily or 4-hour candle, a strong bounce from the zone with significant volume). SL (Stop Loss): Position just below the 325x support zone (e.g., 3245-3240, depending on confirmation). TP (Take Profit): 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3313.737 - 3320 - 3326.022 (key 332x zone). This will be our primary target for the potential bounce. 2. SELL PHASE (Downtrend Resumption): Entry: Once the price reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and shows bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing, pin bar, or clear top formation). SL (Stop Loss): Position slightly above the 332x zone (e.g., 3335-3340). TP (Take Profit): 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 - 3200 - 3173.052 (final 317x target).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
1
Ye Chart Kuch Kehta Hai - Prime Focus LimitedPrime Focus Ltd’s stock shows strong technical momentum on the monthly chart, supported by high volume, price above key moving averages, and positive price forecasts. Fundamentally, the company’s leadership in media post-production, expanding digital solutions, and improving operating margins underpin its growth potential despite some profitability challenges. These factors combined suggest a favorable outlook for the stock’s growth in the near to medium term. Technical Rationale (Monthly Chart) Strong Uptrend Momentum: The stock price recently surged nearly 20% in a single day, closing at ₹136.83, well above its 50-day average (~₹108.7) and 200-day average (~₹118.1), indicating strong bullish momentum on the monthly scale. Volume Surge: The volume of over 20 million shares traded is significantly higher than the average volume (~694,580), suggesting strong buying interest and potential continuation of the upward trend. Price Recovery from Lows: The stock has rebounded from a low of ₹85 to current levels near ₹137, showing a recovery phase that often precedes further gains on monthly charts. Positive Price Targets: Forecasts indicate a bullish trend with mid-year 2025 targets around ₹137.61 and year-end targets near ₹160, supporting the technical outlook for continued growth. Fundamental Rationale Market Position and Business Model: Prime Focus Limited is a global player in media and entertainment post-production services, including visual effects, 3D conversion, and cloud-based media solutions, serving major Hollywood studios, OTT platforms, and broadcasters. This diversified service portfolio positions it well in a growing digital content market. Revenue and Operating Profit: Despite some volatility, the company reported strong operating profit margins recently (22% in FY2025) and operating profit of ₹786 crore, indicating operational efficiency improvements. Growth Prospects: The company’s digital transformation offerings (CLEAR cloud media ERP suite) and global footprint across 18 cities enhance its growth potential in the expanding entertainment technology sector. Valuation and Intrinsic Value: The stock currently trades at a premium of about 63% over its median intrinsic value estimates, reflecting positive market sentiment and growth expectations. Return Ratios and Challenges: While ROE remains negative (-15.8%) and sales growth has been modest (4.21% over 5 years), the improving operating margins and strategic investments in technology could drive future profitability and shareholder returns. Promoter Holding and Market Cap: Promoter holding slightly decreased recently but remains significant, and the market cap stands around ₹4,240 crore, indicating a mid-cap stock with room for institutional interest and growth.
NSE:PFOCUS
by prashant_1209
VSA vs BTC: Into a Bearish Scenario or Not?Predicting the market requires skill. Most traders fail at one crucial point: they don’t see the market as a living, breathing organism—a structure where one move leads to another, like cause and effect in motion. That’s what we often call reading the psychology of the market. When you begin to grasp the fundamental principles behind that, you step into the realm of elite traders. And yes—Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a powerful tool, but only if you know how to read it properly. I’m not a certified trader or financial advisor, and I don’t give signals, entries, or exits. I’m simply a solo observer, sharing a slice of what true technical and fundamental analysis looks like. And yes—it takes time. It takes skills. Now, if we want to even attempt predicting the future of price action, we must understand something: A chart is not a single truth. It’s a battlefield of conflicting signals. Patterns, marks, levels—some suggest bullish continuation, others hint at sharp reversals. Confusion is inevitable if you don’t learn to distinguish which signs matter. In our current BTC chart, we’re witnessing this contradiction unfold clearly: • A bullish flag formation... • Yet within it, the emerging completion of a Head & Shoulders pattern! How arrogant can the market be! 😄 A moment to laugh—but also a moment to observe how cleverly the crowd is misled. This is classic manipulation, wrapped in a textbook setup. But what’s most telling isn’t the pattern on the surface—it’s the volume beneath the structure. It’s always the quiet details that speak the loudest. Before price shows its true face, volume often leaves footprints. In our case, those footprints were already leading toward a bearish path—long before the structure began to shape itself clearly. So while retail eyes focused on the bullish flag, the underlying volume had already begun withdrawing support. Not aggressively—no. Subtly, almost elegantly, in that familiar way institutions mask intention: • Spikes that don’t hold • Buying that doesn’t follow through • And a steady fade in commitment as price climbs into weakness It’s in those quiet inconsistencies where VSA earns its value. It tells us: the move isn’t about what’s obvious. It’s about what never fully materialized. So yes, the pattern may still remain incomplete. The Head & Shoulders may yet fail to validate. But for those who were watching volume first—not structure—the script was already being written. ✒️ From now on, professionally speaking, we must still wait: • For the Head & Shoulders to confirm or dissolve. So eyes targeted at the swing low level near 107k • And for volume to either legitimize or invalidate the entire setup Only then does the chart grant us permission to speak in certainties. 🐾 But so far… • The clues have favored the bears. • Sell opportunities appeared early and often—for those who know what to look for. • Bullish spikes in volume? They were met with silence. • Momentum fizzled under a macro backdrop of fading demand. If you were in the right mindset, and aligned even the lower timeframes to basic structural zones, you already saw the path ahead wasn’t being carved by the bulls. Let them finish the patterns. Let the candles paint the story. But for those trained in volume, the ink has already dried. And if you're still reading, maybe you already sense it— real insight doesn’t shout, and it never floats in abundance. Value has never been about noise. It’s about what’s rare, quiet, and overlooked by the crowd. Just like in the markets—the true signals aren’t loud, and they’re never free in the economic sense. Just as price rises where supply thins, the same applies here: what’s scarce... holds weight. PS For last A little exercise, something to grasp on. Have you noticed how Volume & RSI behaves in lower time frames? 4Hour or 1Hour for example. Can you identify how volume confirms a bearish move. Do you discover the correct correlation and combined use between VSA & RSI. Remember my previous insight See you next time!
by WhatComes21
1
V2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QEV2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QE US S&P Zone Analysis -- Correlation with 1. Leading Economic Indicators (PMI Manufacturing Index, PMI Services Index, Building Permits) 2. US Interest Rates (MEAN 1.97 from Jan 2003) 3. US Inflation Rate YoY 4. Dollar Index (DXY) 5. Quantitative Easing Episodes WHY CHANGE IN APPROACH? As per Ammar Bhai, Red and other Zones for US and developed markets shall not follow only Interest Rates after 2000. Traditional single impact of Interest Rate is not Enough. NOTE ABOUT INFLATION ABOVE 5% It was also noticed that if inflation was about 5% that coincided with Red and Yellow zone and it must be avoided for stock trading. NEW APPROACH NEW GREEN ZONE 1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50 2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect) 3. Inflation is FALLING or AROUND TARGET 4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS 5. Stock Market RISING NEW APPROACH for RED ZONE 1. PMI Manuf Index is FALLING or BELOW 50 2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED or ABOVE MEAN (Contractionary Policy in Effect) 3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS. (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%) 4. DXY is RISING 5. Stock Market FALLING or SIDEWAYS NEW YELLOW ZONE 1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50 2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED 3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%) 4. DXY is RISING or SIDEWAYS 5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS NEW ORANGE ZONE 1. PMI Manuf Index is SIDEWAYS or BELOW 50 2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect) 3. Inflation is FALLING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%) 4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS 5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS Historically whenever Interest Rates are dropping, US market goes down for some months: US somehow try to control Inflation before bringing the interest rates down. When Inflation is under control and Growth has not gone down much, then they decrease the interest rates Because in past whenever Interest rates were decreased, growth also fell for some months and then improved. Then FED does QE, which bring surplus cash in the market, Which drops Dollar rate, that helps the Stock Market grow.
SP:SPX
by haroonraees
ADA/USD Thief Trading Plan – Bullish Snatch & Run!🚨 ADA/USD HEIST ALERT! 🚨 – Bullish Loot Grab Before the Escape! (Thief Trading Strategy) 🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Raiders! 🌟 🔥 THIEF TRADING STRIKES AGAIN! 🔥 💎 The Setup: Based on our stealthy technical & fundamental heist tactics, ADA/USD is primed for a bullish loot grab! The plan? Long entry with an escape near key resistance. High-risk? Yes. Overbought? Maybe. But the heist must go on! 🎯 Key Levels: 📈 Entry (Vault Cracked!) → Swipe bullish positions on pullbacks (15m-30m precision). 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route) → Recent swing low (4H basis) at 0.5290 (adjust per risk!). 🏴‍☠️ Target (Profit Snatch!) → 0.6500 (or bail early if bears ambush!). ⚡ Scalpers’ Quick Heist: Only scalp LONG! Big wallets? Charge in! Small stacks? Ride the swing! 🔐 Lock profits with Trailing SL! 📢 Breaking News (Heist Intel!): Fundamentals, COT, On-Chain, Sentiment— All hint at bullish momentum!. 🚨 ALERT! News volatility ahead—Avoid new trades during releases! Secure running positions with Trailing SL! 💥 BOOST THIS HEIST! 💥 👉 Hit LIKE & FOLLOW to fuel our next market robbery! 🚀💰 🎯 Profit taken? Treat yourself—you earned it! 🔜 Next heist incoming… Stay tuned, pirates! 🏴‍☠️💎
Long
by Thief_Trader
Narayana Hrudayalaya - Strong Fundamental & TechnicalFundamental plus Technical Analysis on a Financially Strong Company: Narayana Hrudalaya Ltd is engaged in providing economical healthcare services. It has a network of multispecialty and super specialty hospitals spread across multiple locations. Focus Company plans to add 700 plus beds for the next 3-4 years at Bangalore Health City. It intends to invest upto Rs. 1,000 Cr in the West Bengal for setting up a superspecialty hospital. Capex Plan Company has planned a total capex of 1136 Cr for FY24 and till Q3 FY24 it has spent 477 Cr. Stock P/E - 31.7 Industry PE - 56.3 EPS growth 5Years - 67.8 % Buy Score - 4.56 (Buy Score above 0 for me, is considered very good and above 1, excellent.) ROCE 5Yr - 19.6 % Please note that this idea is meant to spread awareness and should NOT be considered a buy recommendation. Do your own research before making any financial commitments.
NSE:NHLong
by Gaurav_Singh_5705
GOLD 4H: structure broken - phase reversal beginsTwo key directional signals were recorded on the gold chart: first, a breakdown of the ascending channel, followed by a confident downward exit from the triangle with a clear fixation under the $3297 boundary. Both figures worked independently, but consistently - and strengthened the impulse towards selling. The price has already gone beyond the lower boundary of the triangle ($3297), confirming the bearish scenario. Candlesticks closing under the level and local consolidation from below is a characteristic formation before the momentum continues. Technical parameters: - Channel breakout: completed - Triangle breakout: $3297 level - Retest from below: expected as confirmation - EMAs reversed downwards, structure broken - Volumes strengthened at the moment of breakout Tactical plan: - Sell after retest of $3297 - Targets on the move: $3248 and $3201 - Stop: above $3305 (above the area of false outs). The current structure indicates the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the downward momentum. As long as the price holds below $3297 - shorts are the priority.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
"Pricing Perfection: The Thin Ice Beneath Record Highs"As markets push to all-time highs, the rally feels less like euphoria and more like walking a tightrope. What happens when the market prices in perfection The S&P 500 is sitting at all-time highs, not because the world is perfect — but because the market is betting that it will be. This rally is no longer driven by surprises or revisions — it’s driven by expectations that everything will go right: inflation will cool, rates will drop, earnings will beat, AI will deliver, and geopolitical tensions will stay neatly compartmentalized. In reality, we are walking on thin ice. Beneath the surface lies fragile market breadth, decelerating economic data, and a Fed that continues to speak hawkishly even as liquidity props things up. Any minor deviation from this “Goldilocks” scenario — a hot CPI, a guidance miss from a mega-cap, or a geopolitical headline — has the power to trigger sharp repricing. When the market prices in perfection, it doesn’t need a bear to show up. It just needs something less than ideal. At these levels, risk becomes asymmetric — all reward is front-loaded, but the pain, if it comes, is unpriced and sudden. The current equity landscape isn’t just optimistic — it’s priced for flawless execution across earnings, rates, geopolitics, and liquidity. That leaves asymmetric downside risk if even a minor narrative breaks. Trump has become know for creating larger than minor narratives... ;)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by nsearra
HNST: When honesty turns into a breakout formationOn the weekly chart, The Honest Company (HNST) is shaping a textbook broadening formation. Four waves are already in place, and the fifth is unfolding. The recent bounce came exactly after a retest of the long-term trendline at point (4), pushing the price above the critical $4.97 resistance (0.236 Fibo) — a clear signal that buyers are reclaiming control. Volume is steadily rising, and the golden cross (MA50 crossing above MA200) further confirms a mid-term trend shift. The volume profile above current prices is nearly empty — indicating minimal resistance. Immediate targets are $6.33 and $6.94 (0.5 and 0.618 Fibo), while the full breakout projection lands at $8.91, $10.31, and even $12.09 (based on 1.0, 1.272, and 1.618 expansions). Fundamentals (as of June 28, 2025): — Market Cap: ~$460M — Revenue (TTM): ~$344M — YoY Revenue Growth: +7.6% — EPS: –0.18 (loss narrowing) — Cash on hand: ~$24M — Debt: under $10M — P/S ratio: 1.34 Despite being unprofitable, HNST is showing strong signs of operational improvement — rising gross margins, controlled costs, and increasing leverage. Growth in both online and retail sales adds further support. With institutional buying picking up, the market may be slowly re-rating this small-cap FMCG player. Trade Plan: — Entry: by market — Targets: $6.33 → $8.91 → up to $12.09 When even an "honest" stock starts drawing broadening patterns and volume’s rising — it’s not a hint, it’s a launch sequence. And the bears? Might want to take a seat in the back.
NASDAQ:HNSTLong
by TotoshkaTrades
1
How to Trade When Buy/Sell Alerts Conflict with Market StructureQuestion: If we have a buy/sell alert and an opposing Market Structure, how can we tell which will prevail or is heavier? Answer (VX Algo System perspective): In the VX Algo system, both the alert signals (buy/sell) and the market structure are crucial, but they serve different roles: Alerts are dynamic triggers based on price action, momentum, or specific algorithmic conditions. They indicate potential entry or exit points. Market Structure reflects the broader trend and underlying order flow, indicating the prevailing direction of the market (e.g., higher highs and higher lows for bullish structure, or lower highs and lower lows for bearish structure). When an alert contradicts the prevailing market structure, the heavier factor is usually the Market Structure because it represents the dominant order flow and sentiment. In other words, alerts give you tactical timing, but market structure provides strategic context. How to tell which prevails: Confirm with Market Structure: If the market structure is bullish (uptrend), a buy alert aligns with it and is more likely to succeed. A sell alert against that structure is a warning sign that the alert may be weaker or a potential false signal. Volume and Momentum: Use volume or momentum indicators (built into VX Algo or complementary tools) to see if the alert has strength behind it. A strong sell alert with high volume during an uptrend may indicate an imminent structure shift. Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Check if the opposing alert is supported or rejected on higher timeframes. A buy alert on a lower timeframe against a bearish higher timeframe structure is less likely to prevail. Risk Management: If you trade against structure alerts, reduce position size and tighten stops until the structure confirms the shift. Summary: Market structure is heavier and more reliable for directional bias. Alerts provide tactical entry timing. When they conflict, lean on structure for bias but watch for alert strength as early signals of possible structure changes.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by WallSt007
06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +915 Sleep: 6 hours Overall health: edgy from sleep ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/4 success** 9:37 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal :check: 9:55 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: 10:31 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) iffy 1:43 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** Early on in the market, I noticed that there was heavy manipulate by the MM with violent buy and sell. This somewhat warns that today's market could be tough to trade and you have to be very patient. News PRES TRUMP: ENDING ALL TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA; WILL TELL CANADA ITS TARIFF LEVEL IN COMING DAYS - around 1 :40pm est What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6200= Bullish, Under 6185= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
AAPL: Premium PlayApple beat expectations this quarter—revenue, profit, EPS—all slightly better than analysts hoped. But the stock dropped to $196.26, down from $212.83. Why? Investors are still worried about tariffs, margin pressure, and supply chain changes. Tim Cook talked about strong product sales (iPhone, Mac, iPad) and all-time high Services revenue. But he also admitted tariffs and regulatory issues are weighing on Apple’s outlook. My Covered Call Strategy I’m selling the $202.5 call and buying the $210 call for June 27, 2025. Big money seems to be doing the same—there was a huge premium sale over $2 million, likely betting Apple stays range-bound short term. - Why this works: - Resistance near $202.50 gives me a clear ceiling - Apple fundamentals are strong, but macro risk caps upside Chart Notes - Resistance: $202.50 and $210 - Support: Around $192.50 Bottom line: I like this trade as a way to bring in income while defining my risk. If Apple grinds sideways or pushes a bit higher, the trade still pays. Clean structure, high odds.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Wiiso
Bitcoin Structurally Momentum Bullish – On-Chain Confirmed.⊢ ⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: 4H) – (June 27, 2025). ⟐ Analysis Price: $106,840.15. ⊢ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (4H): ▦ EMA(9) – ($107,126.95): ∴ Current price is slightly below the EMA(9), indicating the beginning of intraday buyer fatigue; ∴ EMA(9) still curves upward, sustaining the recent bullish momentum, but showing signs of deceleration. ✴️ Conclusion: Short-term strength is weakening; potential micro-shift in sentiment underway. ⊢ ▦ EMA(21) – ($106,574.03): ∴ EMA(21) acts as immediate dynamic support, now closely tested; ∴ Still sloping upward, suggesting buyers are attempting to defend the structure. ✴️ Conclusion: Tactical support remains intact - this is the battlefield line. ⊢ ▦ EMA(50) – ($105,651.25): ∴ Mid-range structure confirms trend stability as price remains well above the EMA(50); ∴ EMA(50) direction remains mildly bullish, reinforcing medium-term control by buyers. ✴️ Conclusion: Medium trend unshaken; pullbacks remain controlled within bullish context. ⊢ ▦ EMA(200) – ($104,890.51): ∴ Long-term baseline remains untouched, with price notably above; ∴ The slope of EMA(200) is stable and slightly positive. ✴️ Conclusion: Structural bullish foundation remains intact. No long-term threat detected. ⊢ ▦ Ichimoku Cloud (9/26/52/26): ∴ Price remains above the Kumo cloud; Tenkan and Kijun are aligned in bullish formation, though beginning to flatten; ∴ Chikou Span remains free and clear above historical price — no conflict. ✴️ Conclusion: Structure is still bullish, but compression in the cloud signals potential pause in directional conviction. ⊢ ▦ Volume (BTC) + MA(21): ∴ Volume sits below its 21-period moving average, indicating waning buyer participation; ∴ No breakout or capitulation candle - sentiment is reserved. ✴️ Conclusion: Lack of conviction - volume confirms indecision and pause in impulse. ⊢ ▦ RSI + EMA9 – (RSI: 54.78 / EMA9: 59.70): ∴ RSI curves downward from the upper-neutral zone - momentum is retreating; ∴ RSI has crossed below its EMA(9), which typically signals fading bullish strength. ✴️ Conclusion: Momentum has weakened - buyers are hesitating. ⊢ ▦ Stoch RSI – (K: 9.72 / D: 10.22): ∴ Oscillator is deep in the oversold region, preparing a bullish cross; ∴ No confirmation of reversal yet - early signal. ✴️ Conclusion: Setup for potential rebound exists, but signal remains unconfirmed. ⊢ ▦ MACD – (MACD: 725.17 / Signal: 883.72 / Histogram: –158.55): ∴ MACD histogram turns increasingly negative, suggesting decay in momentum; ∴ Though MACD line remains above signal, curvature favors a bearish crossover soon. ✴️ Conclusion: Momentum fading; risk of technical crossover if weakness persists. ⊢ ▦ OBV – (71.13M): ∴ OBV is flat and shows no divergence, suggesting balanced pressure; ∴ Movement remains parallel to EMA21, confirming neutrality. ✴️ Conclusion: Volume flow is not supporting a continuation; neutral. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle: ∴The structure remains bullish at the macro and medium levels; ∴ As evidenced by EMA alignment and Ichimoku posture. However, momentum signals are fading, and the current 4H candle lacks conviction; ∴ A breakout requires stronger volume and RSI reacceleration - until then, the tactical stance is suspended. ⊢ ∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (CryptoQuant): ▦ 1. Exchange Netflow Total – (All Exchanges): ∴ Current readings show net outflows dominating, indicating coins moving out of exchanges - typically interpreted as holding behavior and bullish bias; ∴ No recent spike in inflows that would suggest imminent selling pressure or dump risk. ✴️ Conclusion: Exchange behavior is structurally bullish - environment favors accumulation. ⊢ ▦ 2. Exchange Stablecoins Ratio – (All Exchanges): ∴ The ratio remains low and stable, meaning high stablecoin reserves vs. Bitcoin on exchanges - suggesting potential buying power in standby; ∴ No spike in the ratio - no immediate conversion from stablecoins into Bitcoin. ✴️ Conclusion: Stablecoins on standby confirm latent demand - supportive for bullish continuity if triggered. ⊢ ▦ 3. Funding Rates – (All Exchanges): ∴ Funding is positive but mild, indicating long interest, yet not overheated; ∴ No excessive leverage detected - absence of speculative imbalance. ✴️ Conclusion: Derivatives market supports a healthy uptrend with no signs of crowd euphoria. ⊢ ▦ 4. Estimated Leverage Ratio – (All Exchanges): ∴ Leverage ratio remains within neutral bounds, not expanding aggressively; ∴ Suggests market is currently not dominated by overleveraged positions. ✴️ Conclusion: The structure is stable - no systemic risk from forced liquidations. ⊢ ▦ 5. Taker Buy/Sell Ratio – (All Exchanges): ∴ The ratio is slightly above 1.0 - meaning more aggressive buying than selling, but without dominance; ∴ Reinforces sentiment of cautious buying, not yet euphoric. ✴️ Conclusion: Taker flow confirms moderate bullish sentiment, no reversal pressure. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight – On-Chain Oracle: ∴ On-chain metrics align with structural bullishness; ∴ Netflows, leverage, and taker activity all support continuation; ∴ Importantly, stablecoin ratios signal dry powder remains available, meaning the market holds the potential energy for further upside - if volume and technical confirmation align. ⊢ ⧈ Codicillus Silentii Strategic Note: ∴ In the discipline of silence, one waits as price tests its dynamic zone. The wise act after structure, not inside uncertainty; ∴ The chain speaks in whispers. Smart liquidity waits. The structure is armed - but momentum requires ignition. Not fear, not hope - signal. ⊢ 𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation: ∴ Structurally Bullish - (Tactically Suspended); ∴ The core architecture remains intact, but the absence of volume and declining oscillators justify a suspended stance for entry; ∴ On-chain and chart-based structures are aligned in bullish posture, but technical indicators remain in a suspended tactical phase. Awaiting breakout or deeper pullback for positioning. ⊢ ▦ Tactical Range Caution: ∴ Watch $106,574 (EMA21) and $105,651 (EMA50) for reactive buying; ∴ Below $104,890 (EMA200) - structure weakens; ∴ Upside breakout requires volume reclaim above $107,330; ∴ Resistance: $107,330 / $108,200. ⊢ ⧉ ⚜️ Magister Arcanvm (𝟙⟠) – Vox Primordialis! 𓂀 Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy. ⧉ ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Magister_Arcanvm
Cautionary tale on BitcoinI decided to temporarily depart from my usual trade ideas to wave a cautionary finger at the chart of Bitcoin, where I have noticed a rather worrying pattern within the weekly charts. However, before I delve in, I would like to stress that I am a very rigid believer in the long-term prospect of our monetary saviour and what I am supposed to write about only concerns the usual, inevitable cyclicality that always entails the otherwise upward-sloping trajectory of Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) Although overall this has not felt like much of a crypto bull run given the apparently absent performance of altcoins (apart from an occasional 1000x on a well-targeted memecoin), Bitcoin has, in the meantime, trod its usual path upwards. Since the '22 lows, it has mimicked its regular pattern where after a devastating plummet lower, it has spent several long months accumulating until it has burst out of its cocoon to provide a 6x return to its strong believer. However, the mimicking is almost too good as we have now started painting a very similar picture to what eventually transpired to be the '21 top. We have reached a strong above >100k top only to hit a vicious correction (announcement of tariffs), similar to what Bitcoin did in May of 2021 (China crackdown, tech selloff). The price then quickly consolidated - which I am not an avid fan of as a formation of a more robust base would be more preferable (though would take longer ) - and bitcoin shot back up again, quickly reclaiming the previous highs; just like it did in October/November 2021. This creates an unfortunate setup best represented by the series of lower highs on an RS I while the price keep climbing higher - creating the probably best-know bearish signal with higher highs built on weaker and less robust momentum. We know how this ended in 2021, and I am not suggesting that Microstrategy should blow up, go bankrupt and sell all its bitcoin (though definitely a possibility) - however, one must admit that there are currently quite a lot of uncertainties that could unwind at any time (one such coming on July 8th with the second version of the lets-blow-up-the-stock-market day). With a stock market priced to perfection, and with what seems like a large pile of uncertainties hovering in the air, it seems like any one of these could light up the fire underneath these lovely valuations we have reached, and although I would love for cryptocurrency prices to be completely independent of the stock market, we usually know how this goes. So, what to do about this? Preferably nothing . If you are as much of a believer as I am in the necessity of bitcoin in today's financial world, this is just another blip in an otherwise long and profitable ride. So, I won't be any selling any of it - hopefully only adding once we decline. I would also add that I am not expecting as much of a bloodbath as last time. I think Bitcoin has reached a point where the 80-90% declines become very rare. However, regarding my other allocations in crypto assets, I am not as optimistic, hence I decided to sell most of everything else. Although I love the premise of Ethereum, the chart looks pretty horrific, currently drawing a perfect head-and-shoulder on a 4h chart (which I might write about as well as a short idea). I will end this essay the same way I started it - I know absolutely nothing, and maybe I will come back at the end of the summer, beautifully tanned and relaxed as we all are in Europe, and find everything at all-time highs. I just currently believe the risk-reward ratio is not skewed in my favour, and I don't know how about you, but I tend to listen to my probability gods, especially on the eve of another strong SPAC year .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by jurajholik
CADCHF at the Cliff's Edge – Is a Breakdown Imminent? 🧭 Technical Context Price is currently sitting at the key support area of 0.5890–0.5900, tested multiple times since April. This week’s candlestick shows a clear close below the intermediate micro-structure (two consecutive closes under recent lows), confirming bearish pressure. The weekly RSI remains in a neutral-to-low zone, trending downwards with no active bullish divergence. 📉 Technical Conclusion: Active bearish bias. Watch out for potential false breaks below 0.5890 as liquidity traps. 📊 COT Report – as of June 17, 2025 🇨🇦 CAD Non-Commercials: added +8.5k long contracts, aggressively cut −18.3k shorts → Excessive optimism, potential exhaustion on the buy-side Commercials: added +31k shorts → Typical hedge behavior – signaling protection from CAD devaluation 🇨🇭CHF Net positions in gradual decline with no sharp moves → CHF remains in consolidation, with a defensive tone Open Interest dropped by −19.5k → Institutional money exiting positions → Interpretation: Market likely preparing for a directional breakout, CHF could act as a safe haven 📉 COT Conclusion: CAD appears overbought, CHF still gathering strength. Bearish bias on CADCHF remains intact. 📅 Seasonality – June Pattern CHF tends to strengthen in June: +0.0095 (10Y average), +0.0068 (5Y average) CAD shows structural weakness in June: −0.0027 (10Y), −0.0076 (5Y) 📉 Seasonality Conclusion: June favors CAD weakness and CHF strength → Bearish confirmation for CADCHF 🧠 Retail Sentiment 92% of retail traders are long CADCHF, only 8% are short → Extreme imbalance = classic contrarian signal 📉 Sentiment Conclusion: Confirms potential for continued downside on CADCHF ✅ Trade Plan Summary 📌 Base scenario: Short CADCHF if we get a daily/weekly close below 0.5890 🎯 Target 1: 0.5820 🎯 Target 2: 0.5770 🚫 Invalidation: daily close above 0.5960 (invalidates current setup) 📌 Alternative scenario: Short from 0.5960–0.6000 if we get a bearish rejection pattern → ideal for better R/R
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
Watching for Pullback Below $84 in Citigroup (C)Over the past month, Citigroup shares have appreciated 8.58%, outperforming both the Finance sector's 1.91% gain and the S&P 500's 3.92% increase. This relative outperformance may signal strength, but short-term positioning and market structure suggest a potential shift. Expecting a Sharp Move Below $84 – Option Flow Insight Despite the recent strength, I anticipate a significant downward move below the $84 level in the upcoming week. This expectation is based on notable option activity detected in the Times & Sales feed, specifically large put orders suggesting bearish positioning. In response to this setup, I plan to execute a bearish vertical spread, specifically: Buying the $84 puts Selling the $80 puts This strategy limits downside risk while still profiting from a potential retracement. Fundamental Picture Ahead of Earnings Citigroup's next earnings release is scheduled for July 15, 2025. The company is expected to report: EPS of $1.70 (+11.84% YoY) Revenue of $20.85B (+3.51% YoY) For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts: EPS of $7.38 (+24.03%) Revenue of $83.84B (+3.33%) While these figures suggest healthy growth, it's important to note that recent analyst estimate revisions have been modestly negative, with the EPS estimate decreasing 0.27% over the last 30 days. Citigroup currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a neutral sentiment from analysts. Valuation Metrics From a valuation standpoint: Forward P/E: 10.75, notably below the industry average of 15.02 PEG ratio: 0.61, versus the industry average of 1.26 This indicates that Citigroup is undervalued relative to its peers, especially when considering growth prospects, which could provide some support. However, short-term bearish flows may dominate price action heading into earnings. Industry Outlook The Financial - Investment Bank industry, which includes Citigroup, currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, placing it in the top 40% of over 250 industry groups. Historically, industries in the top half outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
NYSE:CShort
by Wiiso
REAX breaking outREAX is a real estage brokerage company that has been in this bullish decending wedge for about a year now. It just broke out yesterday and had a push higher today, confirming the breakout. A measured move of the bull flag puts price targets on this stock around $10 a share, roughly double its current share price. It also sports a Zack's #1 buy rank and is expected to report positive earnings for the first time in company history, when it reports Q2 earnings on August 6th. If this indeed happens, the stock will push much higher, get in early before that happens.
NASDAQ:REAXLong
by bradc1984