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Bank of Japan expected to raise rates, yen calmThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.25, down 0.16% on the day. All eyes are on the Bank of Japan, which meets early on Friday. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points which would bring the cash rate to 0.50%. The BoJ has said that it will raise rates if it sees higher wage growth, which would indicate that inflation is sustainable. BoJ policymakers have expressed confidence that wages are moving higher and Deputy Governor Himino said last week that many firms plan to raise wages at least as much as last year. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ's rate statement. The tone of the statement could be dovish as BoJ policymakers are concerned about President Donald Trump's threats to levy trade tariffs as early as Feb. 1, a move which could destabilize the financial markets. The BoJ will have to be cautious as it gauges the 'Trump factor". Another factor supporting a rate hike is the poor performance of the Japanese yen, which has declined around 9% in the past three months. The Federal Reserve is sounding more hawkish and might raise rates only once or twice this year. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines again, the yen could fall further. Overshadowed by the BoJ meeting, Japan releases December core CPI. Japan's core inflation rate has been climbing higher and is expected to climb to 3% y/y, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is closely watched by the BOJ, has hovered above the central bank's target of 2% for over two years. USD/JPY is testing support at 156.20. Below, there is support at 155.68 157.04 and 157.56 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Bitcoin - 4H let's understand the where we are!Following the USA election, the crypto market experienced a significant rally, seemingly pricing in expectations around the Inauguration of Donald Trump. As the market has likely anticipated much of the impact from potential upcoming policies, we could see oscillations between sharp rises and falls in the coming days. A downward correction appears more probable as the immediate effects seem baked into current prices. Technical Analysis: BINANCE:BTCUSDT broke out of a trading range, achieving its target with a ~9% rise, equivalent to the range's height. The price hunted liquidity above the previous highs, which reinforces the possibility of a fall. A decline from the current zone is likely, with key support zones highlighted on the chart. 📈 Watch for reaction near $102,600 and $100,100 zones. 💬 Like, follow, and comment for more timely market insights! 🚀
by Sober_Trading
3
Germany’s DAX 40 Stock Index Hits Record HighGermany’s DAX 40 Stock Index Hits Record High The country’s Finance Minister, Jörg Kukies, stated in an interview with CNBC that it is crucial for Germany to enter a period of economic growth, adding that structural deficiencies need to be addressed. “We have just received another downward revision of growth forecasts from the IMF,” he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now projects Germany’s GDP growth at 0.3% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, according to the January update of its World Economic Outlook. This marks a sharp decline from the October forecast of 0.8% growth in 2025. Germany’s annual gross domestic product contracted in both 2023 and 2024. Quarterly GDP figures were also modest, although the economy has so far avoided a technical recession. Kukies also remarked that domestic German companies are “under stress” but continue to perform “very well” on the global market, seemingly referencing the rise of the DAX 40 stock index (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen). Indeed, yesterday the index surpassed the 21,300-point level for the first time in history. Technical analysis of the DAX 40 stock index chart (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) indicates that the price is forming two ascending channels. While rising within the steeper purple channel, the price has exceeded the upper boundary of the blue channel. However, given that the price has not yet reached the upper boundary of the purple channel (as indicated by the arrow), it is reasonable to suggest that bullish momentum may be waning. If so, a possible scenario could involve a correction with a bearish breakout of the lower purple line, leading the price back into the blue channel. It is also possible that there will be one more attempt to set a new record, accompanied by the formation of bearish divergence on the RSI indicator. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:GDAXIM
by FXOpen
5
XLMUSDT → Attempt to change the local trendBINANCE:XLMUSDT is entering the correction phase after attempting to forge an uptrend. Price is breaking support due to the change in market nastreonium and bitcoin correction. Bitcoin is moving into a correction, which is generally creating pressure for the already weak altcoin market. The reason is disappointment from the cryptocurrency community due to the lack of hints about cryptocurrencies in the new President Trump's speech. The market is trying to digest this fact as part of a correction. XLM is technically breaking the ascending support inside the global descending channel, meaning that the pressure on the market from the bears is still present. Support levels: 0.4177, 0.3896 Resistance levels: 0.460, 0.4955 The focus is on the previously broken channel boundary and the support level at 0.4177. The price may still test the previously broken channel boundary before falling further. But, a breakdown and consolidation of the price below 0.4177 may provoke sales. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
5
DAY 15: BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD.My sls were triggered which was disappointing but good for the account.Lost 50 pips in Bitcoin as it sold off during the New York session yesterday.I am still bullish on this pair as long as 97,000 is pivot.Still looking to add entries as I believe we will be buying to new highs by tomorrow or next week As for GBPUSD,I'm still bullish as long as there is no break below 1.22500 and 1.22800 which are key technical levels . If the dollar sells of today then the level above will hold and expect gains from GBP. Looking to sit out till data is ready as I'm still recovering from yesterday's losses. And that is why we must use a SL
Long
by Muchangi
XAUUSD - Gold Awaits Weekend Data Releases?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises towards the channel ceiling and supply zones, we can look for short positions targeting the channel midline. The gold market has kicked off 2025 with one of its best starts since 2023 and is on track to achieve its strongest monthly performance since September. Prices are currently testing the high range near $2,750 per ounce. A fund manager noted that this robust start to January could signal another strong year for the precious metal, even after gold recorded a 27% price increase last year. In his 2025 outlook report, Eric Strand, founder of the precious metals-focused AuAg Funds, projected that gold prices will surpass $3,000 per ounce this year. He stated: “We expect gold to break the $3,000 barrier during the year and possibly reach even higher levels by year-end, with a realistic target of $3,300.” Strand’s bullish target represents a 20% increase from current levels. Strand suggested that the new Trump administration might usher in a period of more accommodative monetary policies and larger government stimulus programs. In his report, he explained: “Both Donald Trump and Elon Musk have built their empires on extensive borrowing while driving forward at full speed. This approach will likely persist for the next four years as governments strive to avoid an economic downturn at any cost to create a positive boom. However, the price of this strategy will be monetary inflation. Such an inflationary boom creates a financial environment where commodity prices, including gold, rise significantly.” As U.S. national debt has reached unprecedented levels, now exceeding $36 trillion, Strand highlighted that the United States is not alone in facing this challenge. He emphasized that governments worldwide continue to increase spending through deficit financing. He noted: “The amount of money circulating in the system is increasing without generating substantial real growth, which naturally means each unit of currency becomes less valuable.” Meanwhile, gold prices remain near all-time highs against major currencies such as the euro, British pound, Chinese yuan, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar. Gold continues to stand out as a safe-haven global asset as the trend of de-globalization accelerates. Countries are moving away from dependence on the U.S. dollar and diversifying their currency reserves. (De-globalization refers to the process of reducing or reversing global integration, including less free trade, restricted capital flows, reduced interdependence, and a rise in nationalist and local policies.) Strand stated: “We have seen the beginning of de-globalization, and it appears to be gaining momentum, particularly as the U.S. seeks to impose conditions that serve its own interests. Policies such as ‘America First’ and high tariffs may benefit the U.S. economy, but they also undermine trust in the country as a leader in free-market economies.” He added: “This new phenomenon is likely to create inflationary pressures and may lead to waves of currency devaluation in other nations as they attempt to offset the effects of tariffs.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EUR/USD: Probabilities for a Buy SetupLooking at the current market structure, there’s a strong probability of a buy setup forming during this pullback. The goal is to target the supply zone, which sits as a significant area of interest above the current price action. Key observations: Demand Zone: This is located at the high-probability key level, which aligns perfectly with a previous support and resistance area. This zone has already shown a clear rejection, indicating its strength as a potential launch point for bullish momentum. Supply Zone: Positioned as the ultimate target for this potential move, marking a critical area where sellers might re-enter the market and since theres a nice liquidity below it..its a good signs that market will target it
Long
by jshafx
USDCAD Bullish Trend: Key Factors Driving the GrowthUSDCAD Bullish Trend: Key Factors Driving the Growth The USDCAD currency pair continues to develop a bullish trend, with strong potential for further rise. Here are the main reasons behind this bullish movement: Trump's Proposed Tariffs: President Donald Trump has commented on imposing 25% tariffs starting February 1, which has fueled speculation and market activity. Decline in Crude Oil Prices: Crude oil prices have been declining amid uncertainty surrounding how Trump's proposed tariffs and energy policies might affect global economic growth and energy demand. Potential Rate Cut from the Bank of Canada (BOC): There is a possibility of a rate cut from the BOC during the upcoming meeting, provided inflation remains within their target zone. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
1
GOLD PRICES RETREAT AS STRONG DOLLAR PREVAILS AND ECONOMIC DATA Economic Data Impacting the Market On December 12, 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released important economic data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% in November, higher than the expected 0.2%, and showed a 3.0% increase over the year, marking the largest gain since February 2023. Additionally, the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, went up by 0.2% for the month and 3.5% annually. Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7 reached 242,000, significantly above the expected 220,000, indicating rising unemployment. These mixed signals highlight ongoing inflation pressures alongside a weakening job market. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Shift According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 96.70% from 97.50% a day ago, signalling changing market expectations.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DynamicCapital-FX
What Lies Beyond the Cornfield's Horizon?The narrative of corn in the global agricultural scene is not merely about sustenance but a complex ballet of economics, innovation, and policy. This staple crop stands at the intersection of international trade, with U.S. farmers gaining a foothold in Mexico's market through a significant legal victory against GMO corn restrictions, highlighting the nuanced dance between technology and trade agreements. Meanwhile, Brazil's agricultural strategies reveal a shift towards leveraging corn for ethanol, showcasing a potential future where corn could play an even more pivotal role in sustainable energy solutions. In science and technology, the development of digital corn twins presents a frontier in crop breeding. This innovative approach could redefine how we think about plant resilience and efficiency, potentially leading to crops tailored to withstand the capricious whims of climate change. The challenge lies in translating theoretical models into practical, field-ready solutions that can benefit farmers and consumers alike. However, the journey isn't without its threats. The unexpected rise of corn leaf aphids in 2024 serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing battle with nature's unpredictability. Farmers are now challenged to anticipate and manage these pests, pushing the boundaries of traditional farming practices into more predictive, data-driven methodologies. This situation beckons a broader inquiry into how agriculture can evolve not just to react but preemptively adapt to ecological shifts. As we look beyond the cornfield's horizon, we see a landscape where policy, technology, and biology converge. The future of corn involves navigating this triad with foresight, ensuring that each step taken today not only secures current yields but also plants the seeds for a sustainable agricultural legacy. This exploration into corn's evolving role invites us to ponder how we can harness these developments for a future where food security and environmental stewardship walk hand in hand.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by UDIS_View
XAGUSD - Silver Awaiting Higher Numbers?!On the 4-hour timeframe, silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving within its ascending channel. If the correction continues, we could see the channel bottom. A consolidation above $31 will provide us with a path for silver to rise to the supply zone, where we can sell with a risk-reward ratio. South West Pinnacle Exploration Ltd JV has announced plans to commence exploration for copper, gold, and silver in Block 22B in Oman. The company has signed a concession agreement for this block, which is believed to hold significant potential for further mineral discoveries. Despite some challenges, Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, holds a more optimistic view on silver due to its dual role as a monetary and industrial metal. He stated, “In 2024, increased industrial demand contributed to a physical deficit in the silver market. Sectors such as electronics and renewable energy, especially photovoltaic (solar) technologies, played a major role in driving this demand.” Hansen predicts that steady industrial demand will keep silver in a supply deficit heading into 2025. This deficit could be further exacerbated by rising financial or “paper demand” through financial instruments like exchange-traded funds (ETFs). (“Paper demand” refers to financial transactions without physical backing, such as futures, options, or ETFs, as opposed to physical commodity purchases.) Hansen also forecasts that silver will continue to outperform gold, expecting the gold-to-silver ratio to decline from the current level of 88 to around 75. His positive outlook on silver aligns with his broader perspective on the commodities market, where he sees greater potential for metals linked to the electrification of the global economy compared to those tied to construction. He elaborated: “Among industrial metals, we maintain our long-term positive outlook on those that support the energy transition, particularly copper and aluminum. These metals are crucial for investments in power grids and the rapid expansion of renewable energy installations, including electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines. On the other hand, we see limited potential for metals like iron ore and steel, which are heavily reliant on construction sector demand.” Meanwhile, trade tensions between the United States and China, which escalated early in Trump’s presidency, appear to be easing. Many major companies, including Nike, Amazon, and Apple, stand to suffer significant losses if tariffs are increased. On the other hand, China has indicated that it is prepared to take retaliatory measures against any new tariffs, which could push Trump toward negotiation rather than confrontation. In response to Trump’s threat of imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated: “China is willing to work with the United States to promote the sustainable and healthy development of economic and trade relations.”
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF - Looking for a Weaker Dollar?!The USDCHF pair is trading in its ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zones, the next long positions in this pair with a good risk-reward ratio will be available for us. Morgan Stanley Investment Bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting but is expected to revise its assessment of labor market conditions. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, is likely to emphasize the reliance on data and prevailing uncertainties while keeping the option for a rate cut in March on the table. Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the Fed may revise its description of the labor market from “cooling” to “stable.” This shift reflects recent employment data trends, which have demonstrated consistency over the past 6 to 9 months. According to Morgan Stanley, Powell is expected to reiterate ongoing progress in reducing inflation, highlighting that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. Furthermore, the Fed is likely to delve deeper into balance sheet policies and may signal that the process of balance sheet reduction could soon conclude. Meanwhile, Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, has warned that high government debt could lead to a major crisis. Goldman Sachs, in its analysis of President Donald Trump’s inaugural policy statements, noted that his tariff policies appeared softer than initially expected and currently carry less priority than previously anticipated. The firm also observed that Trump’s rhetoric regarding Mexico and Canada was more aggressive than projected. Goldman Sachs concluded that the likelihood of a global U.S. tariff on all import sectors this year has diminished, thereby reducing the risk of reigniting inflationary pressures. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, stated that as the new U.S. administration begins its term, the country’s economy appears to be in excellent shape. He also highlighted that key questions regarding tariffs pertain to their speed of implementation and targeted countries. Solomon remarked that tariffs would ultimately lead to a rebalancing of trade agreements over time and that trade policies would directly influence interest rate equilibrium. On the other hand, Thomas Schlegel, the president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the Swiss franc remains a safe haven asset in global markets, although trade disputes have adverse implications for Switzerland’s economy. He also emphasized that there is no current concern regarding inflation, which remains within the bank’s target range and aligned with cyclical forecasts. Schlegel further mentioned that the possibility of employing negative interest rates cannot be ruled out.
Long
by Ali_PSND
SOLUSDT at a Crossroads: Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?Yello, Paradisers! Is SOLUSDT primed for a major breakout or teetering on the edge of a sharp breakdown? 💎#SOLUSDT is currently sitting at a critical support level of $242.41, an area that has historically sparked strong bullish momentum. This makes the next move pivotal, as it could either confirm a reversal into a bullish rally or lead to a continuation of the downward trend. 💎If the bulls defend the $242.41 support zone, the price could take a bullish turn toward the resistance level at $272. Beyond that, $312 becomes the next major resistance area, where strong momentum and volume could trigger a significant rally. 💎However, if the $242.41 support fails to hold, #SOLANA could slide toward the lower support at $223.45. This level holds a pool of liquidity that may prompt a bullish rebound, but a clean break below it would invalidate any bullish scenarios, paving the way for further bearish pressure and potentially deeper downside levels. 💎Paradisers, stay sharp and disciplined! The market is packed with both opportunities and risks, but only those who wait patiently for high-probability setups will thrive. Tight stop-losses and proper risk management are non-negotiable. Remember, consistency and discipline always win in the long run. Be strategic, stay patient, and approach every trade with a professional mindset. The market rewards the prepared. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
1
XAUUSD Trade idea 23/01/2025Gold analysis update: This week’s price action has played out as expected. We saw a key break of 2718 early on, which invalidated the triple top rejection and confirmed bullish momentum. Following that, price made a clean break and retest of the 2746 level, with yesterday’s daily candle closing bullish—though with less momentum compared to Tuesday’s 400-pip rally. Today’s daily opened with an attempted retest of 2746, keeping the bullish bias intact above this key level. For continuation, I’ll be watching for retest entries or a strong bullish close above the 2756 intraday level of interest. A break of 2756 could lead to a move toward the 2787 highs we saw in late 2024. #Gold #XAUUSD #Trading
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Thetraderscollective
GBPCAD Trade IdeaI'm sharing this trade idea based on recent developments: Oil Price Decline: Falling oil prices typically weaken the Canadian Dollar (CAD), as Canada is a major oil exporter. Trump's Presidency: Donald Trump being elected as the 47th President of the United States could bolster the GBP, especially considering his political stance on global trade and policies. While Trump has made comments about integrating Canada with the U.S., I don't believe this will have an immediate impact on this trade. ⚠️ Risk Warning: This setup carries a high level of systemic risk due to the uncertainties surrounding these geopolitical events. Let’s see how this plays out!
Short
by MasoudEskandari