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U.S. Dollar Index . 1MLong-term DXY (Dollar Index) Analysis Greetings to all valued followers, This is a long-term analysis and macroeconomic outlook based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC), carefully charted with key reactive zones highlighted. Within this analysis, significant support levels, imbalance zones, and liquidity pools are outlined, which can guide your market decisions as the price reaches these areas. Key Zones Based on the Monthly Timeframe Support (Monthly): 97.441 This level is considered the primary support. It’s expected that, should the price reach this zone, a reaction or corrective rally might unfold. Support (Monthly): 94.629 This is the secondary support, which acts as the next target if the previous support is broken. Typically, these supports indicate potential reversal points or short-term retracements. Imbalance Zone (Unfinished Business): Range: 91.782 – 91.436 This zone represents an Imbalance, signalling a strong disequilibrium in the market. The market will likely revisit this area to restore balance (rebalancing). Significance: It acts as a Liquidity Magnet — if the Federal Reserve fails to provide sufficient liquidity and the support line is broken, the price will tend to continue downward into this zone to gather the required liquidity for economic rebuilding and confirmation of a bearish trend. Liquidity Pool: Liquidity (M): 89.209 This is a liquidity pool where, should the bearish momentum persist, the price is expected to test or reach this level. A significant volume of buy and sell orders are accumulated here, making it a crucial target for further downside. Charting Summary and Outlook: The monthly supports at 97.441 and 94.629 are key areas to watch, with market reactions to be evaluated via Order Blocks and Break of Structure (BOS) signals. The imbalance zone between 91.782 and 91.436 may trigger a retracement within the ongoing downtrend — traders should look for confirmation signals in price action. If the market fails to gather enough liquidity in these zones, the next downside target would be around 89.209, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
TVC:DXYShort
by fereydoon1199
XAUUSD – Poised for a Major Breakout After ConsolidationOn the monthly chart, XAUUSD is forming an Inside Bar pattern, signaling that the market is compressing ahead of a potential strong move. May’s candle remains within April’s range – a classic setup that often precedes a decisive breakout. On the H4 timeframe, gold has attempted to break above recent highs multiple times but failed, forming a series of lower highs, indicating a corrective structure. However, the recent rebound from May’s low suggests potential accumulation is underway. Currently, price is hovering around a neutral zone. A clear break above the 3,400 level could spark a fast move toward the 3,500–3,600 range. Conversely, a drop below 3,120 would open the door for a deeper pullback toward 3,000. From a macro perspective, long-term fundamentals continue to support the bullish case for gold, driven by dovish central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and concerns about USD debasement. Still, a confirmed technical breakout is needed to establish direction in the near term. Strategy Summary Buy zone to watch: 3,307 – 3,320 Bullish trigger: Holding above 3,300 Target: 3,435 Risks: False breakouts or failure to hold above the breakout zone
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Malaga 2025 Hospital: Duel of giantsThe Biggest Public Project of the Year Faces Construction Giants By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The largest public works contract tendered this year in Spain already has a name and location: the new hospital in Málaga. With a budget of €607.5 million, co-financed by the European FEDER funds, this ambitious healthcare project will not only redefine Andalusia’s care map but has also sparked an intense battle among the country’s top construction firms. The new complex will be built on the grounds of the Civil Hospital and will feature 815 rooms, 48 operating theaters, and more than 250 consultation rooms. The execution period is 75 months, and the Andalusian Regional Government has opted for a mixed model that includes construction and operation of the parking facilities, adding financial appeal to the award. Four Consortia, a Multi-Million Euro Award The mega-project has attracted four consortia formed by industry giants supported by local companies. More than a tender, it is a strategic battle between groups with different strengths and track records. 1. FCC – Ferrovial (with Heliopol and Guamar): Heavyweight Experience The FCC and Ferrovial union combines financial strength and technical expertise on a global scale. FCC, seasoned in hospital construction (like Valdebebas in Madrid), provides execution solidity, while Ferrovial stands out for its expertise in concessions and large international projects. Andalusian companies Heliopol and Guamar add local agility. • Ferrovial (BME: FER) boosted its 2024 profit to €3.239 billion, thanks to capital gains from Heathrow, with revenues up 6.7% to €9.147 billion. With over €5.3 billion in cash, it has a strong presence in the US. • FCC (BME: FCC), after spinning off its cement business, earned €429.9 million in 2024. Its portfolio exceeds €43 billion, including flagship projects like the Scarborough metro and the Nou Mestalla stadium. Advantage: impeccable technical track record and global presence. Risk: less recent visibility in the Andalusian healthcare sector. 2. Acciona – OHLA (with Sando and Vialterra): Sustainability with Andalusian DNA This consortium combines environmental innovation with local roots. Acciona, a sustainability leader, heads the team alongside OHLA, which continues to invest in the hospital sector despite past difficulties. Málaga-based Sando and Vialterra reinforce the local component. • Acciona (BME: ANA) closed 2024 with €422 million profit and revenue growth of 12.7%, despite setbacks in Acciona Energy. • OHLA (BME: OHLA) reported losses of €49.9 million but achieved a record backlog of €9.224 billion and remains positioned in key public works. Advantage: strong local presence and green commitment. Risk: lingering financial instability concerns around OHLA. 3. Azvi – Sanjose (with Puentes and Jarquil): The Technical Bloc with Regional Focus Less media-visible, this consortium offers specialization and efficiency. Azvi is recognized for its railway experience, and Grupo Sanjose for hospitals like those in Vigo or Valdebebas. Puentes and Jarquil complete a versatile team. • Sanjose (BME: GSJ) improved its profit by 51.3% in 2024 to €32.4 million, maintaining a solid financial position with €380 million in net cash. Advantage: agility and proven technical execution. Risk: lower media notoriety and smaller balance sheet. 4. ACS – Sacyr (with Martín Casillas): Infrastructure Titans The ACS – Sacyr tandem offers solvency, technical capacity, and international experience in hospital concessions. Martín Casillas, based in Seville, adds geographical proximity. Additionally, ACS may play a second card with its subsidiary Vías, allied with Lantania and Comsa, increasing its odds. • ACS (BME: ACS) closed 2024 with €828 million profit and a record backlog of €88.209 billion, thanks to expansion in North America. • Sacyr (BME: SCYR) earned €153 million in 2023 and stands out for its focus on concessions, which already represent 93% of its EBITDA. Advantage: financial strength and PPP experience. Risk: organizational complexity presenting two bids. One Hospital, Multiple Readings The new Málaga hospital is not just a healthcare construction: it is also a showcase of Spanish construction might, tensions between local and global players, and the growing importance of sustainability, concession expertise, and financial reputation. The final award, expected this year, will be a clear indicator of the direction large public infrastructure projects will take in Spain. ******************************************************************************************* La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial. Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información. Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada no es un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo.
BME:FCCLong
by ActivTrades
BITCOIN chart updated Bitcoin Buy Signal Triggered ₿🚀 BTC showing strong bullish momentum after holding key support. Entered long position on breakout above short-term resistance with volume confirmation. Higher lows forming a solid base — structure favors continued upside. Targeting the next resistance zone around , with stop loss below recent swing low. Watching closely for follow-through and potential scaling opportunities. Market sentiment improving — let's see if the bulls can take control. #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #CryptoTrading #BuyTheDip #BreakoutTrade #CryptoSetup #BullishBias #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis"**
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SadarExplore
XAUUSD Reversal Zones Identified (MMC Analysis) + Target🧠 Overview: Today’s GOLD chart shows clear institutional footprints using the Market Maker Concept (MMC). We're seeing a sequence of liquidity sweeps, breaks of structure (BOS), and supply/demand (SD) interchanges, all pointing to a well-orchestrated bullish expansion. This detailed analysis will break down: Key structure shifts and manipulation zones BOS confirmations and their implications Upcoming reversal target zone and trade management suggestions 🔍 Chart Breakdown: 🔸 1. SR Interchange Zone (Demand Zone) Around $3,270 – $3,280, price showed strong bullish rejection. This zone represents a Support-Resistance Flip, where price absorbed sell-side liquidity before launching upward. Market Makers often use this zone to induce short positions, then reverse to trap retail sellers. 🔸 2. Major BOS (Break of Structure) Occurred near $3,365, signaling a confirmed bullish shift in market structure. This BOS is important because it shows displacement, a core MMC trait where institutions break structure with momentum. Once BOS was confirmed, price formed a short-term pullback, aligning with re-accumulation principles. 🔸 3. Previous Target Zone + SD Interchange Around $3,370 – $3,385, previously identified as a resistance/target zone. After breaking this zone, price retested it and turned it into new support (SD Interchange). This is a common MMC move: old resistance becomes a new demand zone post-manipulation. 🔸 4. Target Hit & Bullish Continuation Price surged upward and hit the next logical target, pausing briefly. This confirms that the market is following liquidity engineering – price sweeps zones to collect orders, then pushes higher. 🔸 5. Next Reversal Zone: $3,440 – $3,460 This is a key supply zone based on prior inefficiencies and potential smart money exits. Traders should watch this zone carefully for signs of bearish reaction: Rejection wicks Bearish engulfing patterns RSI/MACD divergence Volume exhaustion 💡 Trade Strategy Ideas: ✅ Bullish Bias (If price holds above BOS) Buy retracements into demand zones (e.g., $3,365 or $3,385) Targets: $3,420 and then $3,450 Use trailing stops to lock in profits ❌ Bearish Setup (Upon reversal signs in $3,440 – $3,460 zone) Look for short confirmations like lower highs or bearish engulfing candles Targets: $3,385 (former demand) or $3,365 (BOS level) ⚠️ Risk Management: Stick to 1-2% risk per trade Wait for confirmation before entering any reversal Set clear invalidation levels (above $3,460 for shorts) 🔚 Conclusion: This GOLD analysis demonstrates classic MMC and Smart Money behavior: BOS with confirmation Institutional demand flip Precise target fulfillment Approaching a high-probability reversal zone The next few sessions will be critical. Stay sharp and patient—let the market confirm the next direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
Slowing Global Economy and Output Hikes Weigh on Brent OilBrent crude oil is holding steady around the $60 level, even after OPEC announced another 411,000 barrels per day increase in output, following similar hikes in May, June and smaller one in April. This latest adjustment comes at a time when global economic slowdown concerns are rising, making the decision a risky one. Although the main reason points to non-compliance from Kazakhstan and Iraq, some believe the United States may have played a role, possibly through pressure from Trump aimed at controlling inflation during the ongoing tariff hikes. With several consecutive production increases now in place, a growing surplus is likely to develop over the second half of 2025. This would maintain downward pressure on oil prices if demand fails to keep pace. At the same time, the broader economic outlook is weakening. Recent manufacturing activity data from China, the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom all came in below 50, suggesting a faster rate of contraction. The presence of widespread tariffs is expected to continue weighing on business sentiment and consumer demand, potentially leading to rising unemployment and slowing growth. In this environment, any short-term spikes in Brent and WTI prices are likely to remain opportunities to sell, unless there is a meaningful shift in underlying fundamentals. For a more detailed view of economic trends, please refer to the latest monthly report. Brent crude has been in a steady downtrend since March of last year. While the price movement doesn't follow a perfect trend channel, the structure has generally held well. At the moment, Brent is hovering near the middle of this declining channel. The former long-term support zone around $70 to $72. If prices move up toward this zone, it could present a fresh selling opportunity as long as the resistance holds. On the downside, the $60 level and the area just below it have formed a solid medium-term support, which has held up so far. Still, oil bulls should be cautious around the $60 mark. Even though support looks strong for now, the overall direction of the trend and the broader fundamental backdrop suggest that this level could eventually break. Any long positions taken near current levels should factor in the potential for renewed downside pressure.
FX:UKOIL
by ftdsystem
GBPJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGBPJPY is currently respecting a clean ascending triangle formation on the 4H chart, with the 193.00 area acting as a strong support zone and higher lows continuing to form. This structure signals bullish pressure building up, and a breakout above the key resistance near 196.50 could trigger the next impulsive leg toward the 198.00 target. Price action is compressing along a clear trendline, and bulls are steadily stepping in on each dip—showing a textbook bullish continuation setup. From a macro perspective, the yen remains fundamentally weak as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary stance despite global tightening cycles. In contrast, the British pound is drawing strength from resilient UK economic data and expectations of at least one more rate hike from the Bank of England due to sticky core inflation. The widening yield differential between UK gilts and Japanese bonds continues to support GBPJPY upside, which is also visible in the broader risk-on market sentiment as equities hold firm globally. Technically, GBPJPY has consistently respected trendline support and is coiling tightly under a known resistance zone, signaling that momentum is building for a significant move. Once the pair clears the 196.50 liquidity area, price is likely to surge quickly toward 198.00 as buy stops get activated. The 191.70–192.00 region remains the key invalidation level for this bullish outlook, and as long as that support holds, this setup remains highly favorable for bulls. This pair is showing strong confluence of technical structure and fundamental drivers. A breakout above the triangle’s upper boundary could present a high-probability long opportunity with minimal drawdown. With momentum aligning and market sentiment supporting GBP strength, this could be a prime move to capture in the coming sessions.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Currency Risks in International Stock InvestmentCurrency Risks in International Stock Investment In the realm of international stock investment, understanding and managing currency risks is pivotal. This risk can substantially influence the returns on global investments, making it essential for investors to grasp its nuances and develop strategies to mitigate its impact. Today, we’ll delve into different types of currency risks, factors influencing these risks, and effective ways to manage them. Understanding Currency Risks Currency risks, sometimes known as foreign currency exchange risks, are inherent in international stock investment. This currency exposure risk arises when the value of a foreign currency fluctuates, affecting the position’s value when converted back to the domestic currency. To use an example of currency risk, consider an American investor who buys stocks in a European company. If the euro weakens against the US dollar, the value of these stocks in USD decreases, even if the stock's price in euros remains unchanged. It's crucial for investors to understand these risks, as they can significantly impact the returns on global investments. Effectively managing this exposure may help in protecting and potentially enhancing returns in a globally connected market. Types of Currency Risks Currency exposure in the context of global investments encompasses various types, each impacting assets differently. Understanding these is crucial for investors engaged in international trade or stock markets. Transaction Risk This arises from the fluctuation in exchange rates between the time a deal is made and when it's settled. For instance, a US investor purchasing shares in a Japanese company faces transaction risk if the Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar before the trade is completed. The investor would have to spend more dollars to buy the same amount of yen, illustrating currency exchange rate risk. Translation Risk This is relevant for investors holding foreign assets or stocks. It occurs when the value of these assets changes due to market fluctuations, affecting the domestic value of these assets. For example, a British investor holding stocks in a Canadian company will face translation risk if the Canadian dollar weakens against the British pound. Such a devaluation would reduce the value of the Canadian shares when converted back to pounds. Economic Risk This broader risk involves changes in currency value driven by macroeconomic shifts in a foreign market. A German company investing in Brazil may face economic risk if Brazil’s downturn leads to a devaluation in the Brazilian real. This would lower the returns on the position when converted back to euros. These aspects collectively define the currency risk in international trade and investment, highlighting the importance of managing exposure. Factors Influencing Risks Several factors contribute to risks in global investments, each playing a significant role in fluctuating prices. Exchange Rate Fluctuations Prices are primarily influenced by supply and demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market. Factors like trade balances, economic strength, and investor sentiment often cause exchange rates to vary, impacting investments denominated in that currency. Interest Rates Central banks' monetary policies, particularly interest rate adjustments, are a key driver. Higher interest rates in a country typically strengthen its currency by attracting foreign capital, seeking higher returns. Inflation Rates Generally, a country with lower inflation sees its currency appreciate as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies, affecting the return on investments in countries with differing inflation rates. Political Stability and Economic Performance Political events, government policies, and the overall economic environment of a country influence investor confidence. For instance, political instability or economic downturns may lead to a currency devaluation. Geopolitical Events Global events, such as conflicts, trade agreements, or sanctions, might create uncertainty in the market, leading to volatile market movements. Managing Currency Risks Effectively managing risks is crucial for investors involved in global markets. By understanding and employing various strategies, one can mitigate currency risk and protect potential returns from adverse price movements. Hedging Strategies - Forward Contracts: These are agreements to buy or sell a currency pair at a future date at a predetermined price. By locking in exchange rates and hedging foreign currency risk, investors can protect against potential unfavourable shifts in prices. For example, an investor fearing a devaluation of the euro against the dollar in the coming months may enter a forward contract to sell euros at today's value, mitigating the exposure to future devaluation. - Hedging through Inversely Correlated Assets: Investing in assets or securities that have an inverse relationship with the currency can also be a strategy. For instance, holding stocks that are likely to appreciate when the local currency depreciates might serve as a natural hedge. Diversification - Diversifying a portfolio across different currencies and geographic regions can dilute the impact of fluctuations. Holding a global mix of equities, bonds, and other assets may balance out losses in one region with gains in another. - Investing in multinational corporations that operate and generate revenue in multiple currencies can also be a form of diversification, as these companies are often less affected by price volatility in any single market. By employing these strategies, investors can mitigate the overall impact of price fluctuations on their international investments. However, it's important to note that while these methods might reduce exposure, they can also limit potential gains. The Bottom Line In conclusion, astutely managing these risks is fundamental for success in global stock investment. By understanding the types, factors, and strategies to mitigate this exposure, investors can navigate global markets more effectively. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Gold remains up at the beginning of this week 📌 Gold Consulting Gold prices rose sharply on Monday, reaching their highest level in more than four weeks, affected by the escalation of geopolitical risks caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The re-escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States prompted investors to buy gold throughout the day. As of this writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,377, up 2.70%. Market sentiment turned sour on news that Ukraine launched an airstrike against Russia, destroying long-range bombers and other aircraft. Meanwhile, US President Trump doubled the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, effective June 4, and his remarks against China led to a decline in US and global stock markets. CNBC Reports said that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may talk this week, but not on Monday. 📊Comment Analysis Gold prices maintained their upward momentum at the beginning of this week, but tariff tensions and war with Russia remain unpredictable. Gold prices are supported and will return to the 3400 area. 💰Strategy Package 🔥Sell Gold Zone: 3409-3411 SL 3416 TP1: $3400 TP2: $3388 TP3: $3372 🔥Buy Gold Zone: $3313-$3315 SL $3308 TP1: $3327 TP2: $3340 TP3: $3355 ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the fund account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
1
Prices exploded. Beware of falling support.Information summary: Russia and Ukraine held a second round of peace talks on Monday. The two sides only agreed on the exchange of prisoners. No breakthroughs have been made on the proposed ceasefire agreement that Ukraine, its European allies and Washington have called on Russia to accept. Umerov said Ukraine proposed more talks before the end of June, but believed that only a direct meeting between Zelensky and Putin could resolve the differences between the two sides on several key issues. Secondly, Trump's tariff issue has escalated global trade tensions, and the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also caused geopolitical risks to rise rapidly. Market analysis: Gold has stretched directly from 3290 at the beginning of the week to a high of 3391, a $100 increase. From the perspective of the daily gold line, it is indeed in a bullish trend, breaking through several important pressure levels. But I think all traders need to be wary of chasing more at high levels. The daily trend of gold started from 3120. 3120-3365 is the a wave, 3365-3242 is the retracement of the b wave. So the current trend from 3242 is the rise of the c wave. After breaking through 3340 on Monday, gold has reached 3396 near the 618 position. At present, if gold cannot stand above 3400, it is very likely to maintain the consolidation in the 3396-3340 range. Especially before the release of non-agricultural data this week, such a large fluctuation range. Be sure to be alert to the possibility of continuing to fall back to the support of 3340-3330. Operation strategy: If the price falls back to around 3340-3350, go long, stop loss at 3330, and profit range at 3370-3380. Of course, if you prefer aggressive trading, you can choose a short strategy at 3370-3380, stop loss at 3390, and profit range at 3340-3330.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
Gold: Two Clear Trading OpportunitiesGold surged to around 3390 after today’s open, but has since started to pull back. The current price is nearing the 30M chart MA60 support zone (around 3352), where a minor rebound may occur. 🔍 Short-Term Focus: Resistance to watch: MA10 area at 3369–3378 Trading bias: Primarily short from higher levels 🌐 Main Considerations: There's a large gap left open between 3289–3300, which poses a hidden downside risk. Resistance remains dense above 3400, and the rally left behind potential to form a double top (M shape) or head-and-shoulders pattern. Be cautious of bull traps and manage your positions wisely. 📌 Clear Trade Opportunities: ✅ Short above 3400 ✅ Look for long entries below 3320 The current structure offers identifiable opportunities. Stay disciplined, manage your risk, and trade with confidence.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Arthur3017
Is C3.ai the Quiet Giant of Enterprise AI?C3.ai (AI), an enterprise artificial intelligence software provider, has operated somewhat under the radar despite its foundational role in delivering advanced AI solutions to large organizations. While the broader AI market has seen significant attention on hardware innovators, C3.ai has steadily scaled its platform usage and secured marquee contracts. The company's core strength lies in its sophisticated, patented C3 Agentic AI platform, developed through a multi-billion-dollar investment, which effectively tackles critical business challenges such as AI hallucinations, data security, and multi-format data integration. A pivotal development underscoring C3.ai's growing influence is the expanded contract with the U.S. Air Force Rapid Sustainment Office (RSO). This agreement significantly increased its ceiling to $450 million through 2029, supporting the widespread deployment of C3.ai's PANDA predictive maintenance platform across the Air Force fleet. This substantial commitment not only provides a robust, long-term revenue stream but also serves as a powerful validation of C3.ai's technology at an unprecedented scale, potentially representing the largest production AI deployment within the U.S. Department of Defense. Financially, C3.ai demonstrates compelling momentum. The company recently reported record Q4 earnings, with revenue reaching $108.7 million, a 26% year-over-year increase, driven by strong growth in both subscription and engineering services. Strategic alliances with industry giants like Baker Hughes, Microsoft Azure, and Amazon Web Services continue to accelerate new deal flow and expand market access, shortening sales cycles and enhancing overall reach. While profitability remains a near-term focus, C3.ai's solid liquidity and projected revenue growth of 15%-25% for fiscal 2026, coupled with an average analyst price target suggesting significant upside, position it for a compelling ascent in the enterprise AI landscape.
NYSE:AILong
by UDIS_View
Rate Cuts and Risky Bets: When the Fed Rolls Out the Red Carpet🎬 The Fed’s June Meeting Is Around the Corner Mark your calendars: June 17–18 is when the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes next. With the benchmark interest rate ECONOMICS:USINTR currently holding steady at 4.25% – 4.50%, investors and policymakers alike are keenly awaiting any signals of a shift in monetary policy. Market expectations suggest a cautious approach, with futures markets indicating a modest probability of rate cuts in the latter half of the year. That said, the upcoming meeting could offer some juicy insights into the Fed's outlook — yes, in this economy. 🤝 Trump vs. Powell: The Sequel No One Asked For President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently had their first face-to-face meeting during Trump’s second term, rekindling a familiar tension. Trump criticized Powell for maintaining high interest rates, saying it puts the US at an economic disadvantage compared to countries like China. Not too surprising, Trump’s tone, that is. As a matter of fact, it’s way softer than when the President called the Fed chair a “major loser.” Anyway, Powell was holding back at the meeting, saying that the Fed is independent and that monetary policy decisions are based on objective economic data, not political pressure. Despite Trump's public and private criticisms, Powell remains steadfast in his approach, focusing on long-term economic stability over short-term political considerations. 📉 Inflation, Employment, and the Tightrope Walk Inflation has decreased significantly from its peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.3% in April 2025 , nearing the Fed's 2% target. However, the labor market remains robust, with unemployment rates at historically low levels. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act: cutting rates too soon could reignite inflation, while maintaining high rates might dampen economic growth. This tightrope walk requires careful analysis of incoming data and a measured approach to policy adjustments. 🛍️ Market Reactions: Bulls, Bytes, and Bullion If rate cuts are the rumor, the S&P 500 SP:SPX is already buying the headline. The index clawed back all of its early-year slump and now sits just above the flatline. Traders are clearly pricing in a friendlier Fed, even if Jerome Powell hasn’t sent out the official RSVP yet. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD , meanwhile, has been doing what it does best — quietly flexing in the corner as uncertainty swirls. Prices bounced back above $3,300 in late May, reminding everyone that when central banks blink, bullion blings. A rate cut could weaken the dollar — and gold’s inverse relationship with the greenback suddenly looks like a playbook move. Speaking of the dollar, the dollar index TVC:DXY has been wobbling like it’s just finding its feet. With inflation softening and tariff noise all over the place, the buck has lost some swagger . Traders are already rotating out of safe havens and into riskier plays, including… Yep, Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ). Crypto’s original bad boy is back on the move, orbiting near $110,000 after rewriting its all-time high book in May. A dovish Fed can technically pour more rocket fuel into the rally, especially as sovereign adoption and ETF flows keep pumping ( $9 billion in just five weeks?! ). In the land of easy money, Bitcoin doesn’t just survive — it thrives. The takeaway? Markets love a dovish pivot. Whether you're holding stocks, stacking sats, or eyeing gold bars, the Fed’s next move could be the difference between breakout and breakdown. 🧠 What to Keep in Mind As the June Fed meeting approaches, traders should consider the following strategies: Diversification: Maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with interest rate volatility. Equity Exposure: Evaluate exposure to sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as the good old tech space and throw in some financials — banks love rate moves. Inflation Hedges: Consider assets like gold or silver to hedge against unexpected inflationary pressures. 🧾 Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty The June Fed meeting isn’t just another calendar event — it’s a market-defining moment dressed in central bank jargon. With politics heating up and inflation cooling down, Powell’s next move could either pump more cash into the risk rally or throw cold water on the party. Yes, the noise is loud. Yes, the data is messy. But through it all, one thing holds: staying nimble beats being early. Whether you're riding the S&P 500, hodl’ing Bitcoin, or hugging gold like a doomsday prepper, this is the time to trade the chart, not the chatter. Off to you : Are you in the rate-cut camp or you think there’s more ground to cover before Powell and his squad tune the pitch down? Comment below!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by TradingView
6
NVIDIA: Is Wall Street's AI Darling Still a Good Investment?When you hear the name NVIDIA, what comes to mind? Chances are, you're thinking of gaming graphics cards, or perhaps the explosive rise of Artificial Intelligence. And you're not wrong — NVIDIA powers everything from ChatGPT to Tesla's self-driving tech. But behind all the hype, there's a more important question serious investors should ask: “Is NVIDIA still a smart investment at this price?” As a value investor who combines deep fundamental analysis with AI-powered tools, I’m going to walk you through a comprehensive breakdown of NVIDIA from a true value lens — one that strips away the hype and reveals the numbers that actually matter. Whether you're a beginner trying to learn how to value stocks or a seasoned investor looking for clarity, this guide will change the way you think about investing in companies like NVDA. Let’s dive in. 🧩 First: What Even Is NVIDIA? To understand whether NVIDIA is a good buy, you first need to understand what it actually does — and why it’s considered one of the most powerful companies of our time. 👇 TL;DR – NVIDIA in 3 Sentences: 💲It builds the GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) that power video games, AI models like ChatGPT, and high-performance computing in data centers. 💲It dominates the AI infrastructure market, which is growing faster than nearly any other tech vertical. 💲It's now worth over $3 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in human history. NVIDIA has become the "picks and shovels" of the AI gold rush. But just because a company is great… doesn’t mean it’s a great investment at any price. 🧠 Understanding Value: What Makes a Stock Undervalued or Overvalued? Before we dive into numbers, let’s get one thing straight: Value investing is not about buying cheap stocks. It’s about buying great businesses for less than they’re worth. To determine whether NVIDIA is undervalued, I ran it through six professional-grade valuation models and created a weighted average fair value, factoring in both upside potential and risk. These models include: ✅ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) ✅ Price-to-Earnings Multiples ✅ PEG Ratios ✅ Graham Formula ✅ Dividend Discount Model ✅ Forward Earnings Forecasts Sound complicated? It is. But I’ll walk you through every step — in plain English. 💵 Market Snapshot (as of June 2, 2025) Current Stock Price: $137.38 Consensus Price Target (from analysts): $171.62 My Fair Value Estimate (weighted model): $152.83 Upside Potential: ~11% conservatively, up to 27% if analyst targets are correct 📊 Let’s Break Down the Valuation Models — One by One 1️⃣ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Think of this like saying: “If I owned the entire company, how much cash would it make me in the future — and what is that worth today?” Assumptions: Revenue grows at 5% annually (very conservative) We use a 10% discount rate (standard) Future cash flows are modeled out 10 years 📈 Fair Value from DCF: $140.00 2️⃣ P/E Multiples (Price-to-Earnings) This method compares NVIDIA’s earnings to its price — kind of like asking, “How many dollars do I pay for each $1 in profit?” The S&P 500’s average P/E is ~20–25. NVIDIA’s is higher because it’s a growth company. 📈 Fair Value from P/E: $160.00 Based on applying an industry-adjusted multiple 3️⃣ Forward P/E Valuation Instead of looking backward at past earnings, this looks forward at projected earnings. If a company is growing fast, this method often shows better value. 📈 Fair Value from Forward P/E: $150.00 4️⃣ Graham Formula (Ben Graham’s Classic Approach) Ben Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, created this formula to calculate intrinsic value based on growth and earnings. You can read about Graham's formular here We applied very conservative growth assumptions to avoid overestimating. 📈 Fair Value from Graham Formula: $145.00 5️⃣ PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings/Growth) This tells us if the company’s price is justified based on how fast it’s growing. A PEG of 1.0 is considered fairly valued. 📈 NVIDIA PEG Ratio: 0.98 📈 Fair Value Estimate: $155.00 👉 Translation: It’s priced just right for its explosive growth 6️⃣ Dividend Discount Model (DDM) This is only useful for mature companies that pay dividends. NVIDIA reinvests most of its profits, so this model gives a low valuation. 📉 Fair Value from DDM: $130.00 But we’ll only weight this lightly, since the dividend is tiny. 📊 Final Verdict: Average Fair Value = $152.83 (weighted by models) Current price = $137.38 Undervalued by ~11% under conservative modeling ⚖️ How I Weighed the Models (And Why It Matters) Not every valuation model should be treated equally. Some are better suited for mature, dividend-paying companies. Others shine when analyzing high-growth innovators like NVIDIA. That’s why I didn’t just average all six models — I assigned weights based on relevance and reliability for this specific company. Here’s the logic behind each one: 🔹 Discounted Cash Flow (20%) NVIDIA generates massive free cash flow and has excellent visibility into future earnings — which makes DCF one of the most grounded ways to assess its intrinsic value. 🔹 Price-to-Earnings Multiple (20%) With strong profits and high margins, NVIDIA deserves comparison against peers in the semiconductor space. The P/E model helps anchor valuation in current profitability. 🔹 Forward P/E (10%) Because NVIDIA is growing rapidly, it's important to consider how the market is pricing in future earnings. However, since forward estimates can be speculative, I assigned it a lighter weight. 🔹 Graham Formula (20%) This classic value investing formula focuses on earnings and growth with a built-in margin of safety. It’s perfect for assessing quality businesses like NVIDIA using conservative assumptions. 🔹 PEG Ratio (15%) NVIDIA is growing earnings at a blistering pace. The PEG ratio adjusts the P/E multiple based on growth, giving us a powerful signal of whether the stock is expensive or not — especially for growth companies. 🔹 Dividend Discount Model (15%) Although NVIDIA pays a small dividend, it's not central to its investment case. I included the DDM for completeness, but gave it the lowest weighting because the company reinvests most of its profits into growth, not shareholder payouts. By applying these weights, I wasn’t just looking for a single “right” answer — I was building a balanced, multi-lens perspective on fair value. The result? A composite intrinsic value of $152.83, backed by a methodology that respects both fundamentals and growth dynamics. Now let’s zoom out and look at bigger signals of strength. 📚 Book Value Growth: The Hidden Gem Most People Miss Let’s talk about something almost every retail investor overlooks — Book Value Per Share (BVPS). Think of BVPS as the company’s “net worth per share.” It’s the raw value of what shareholders would receive if NVIDIA liquidated all its assets and paid off its debts. While most growth investors are obsessed with flashy revenue numbers and AI headlines, I always take time to peek under the hood — and what I found with NVIDIA is quietly impressive. Over the past five years, NVIDIA has steadily built shareholder value. In 2020, its book value per share sat at just $5.00. But by 2024, it had grown to $12.50. That’s not a fluke — it’s a 20% compounded annual growth rate. That’s the kind of consistent, behind-the-scenes compounding that Warren Buffett dreams about. Looking ahead, if that same growth trend continues, we could see BVPS hit around $31.00 by 2029. Apply a reasonable price-to-book multiple, and you’re staring at a potential valuation of $341.00 per share — a full 2.5x from today’s levels. 🔹 This isn’t hype. It’s quiet, compounding strength. 🔹 It’s what great businesses do while the world’s distracted by headlines. 🔍 The Metrics That Matter Metrics are just numbers — until you know what they actually mean. Here’s how I interpret NVIDIA’s financial DNA. 🔹 P/E Ratio at 44.31 — Yes, it’s high. But when you’re growing earnings 40% per year, that multiple starts to make sense. Growth is expensive — but NVIDIA is earning its premium. 🔹 Forward P/E at 28.33 — This reflects what investors are willing to pay based on projected future earnings. It signals that Wall Street still sees upside. 🔹 Return on Equity (ROE) at 106.92% — That’s not a typo. NVIDIA is generating more than double its net income for every dollar of shareholder equity. This is an elite business, deploying capital like few others. 🔹 Debt-to-Equity Ratio at 0.50 — Leverage is low, which means less risk. NVIDIA isn’t overextending itself, even as it scales aggressively. 🔹 Earnings Growth of 40% over 5 years — Very few large-cap companies are compounding at this rate. This is what separates a fast mover from a long-term compounder. 🔹 Free Cash Flow of $30B — Cash is king. And NVIDIA is sitting on a throne. This level of liquidity gives them options — to reinvest, acquire, or return capital to shareholders. These aren’t just stats to admire. They’re signals — and they all point in one direction: strength. 📰 What’s Happening Right Now? In the short term, NVIDIA has had some turbulence, but its fundamentals remain rock-solid. Here's what’s shaping its current narrative: 🔹 Record-breaking Q1 Revenue: $44.1 billion — up 69% year-over-year. Yes, you read that right. That kind of acceleration is unheard of at this scale. 🔹 The Blackwell Era Begins: Their new generation of chips is designed for “reasoning AI,” setting the stage for a whole new wave of demand. 🔹 Geopolitical Friction: Export controls and restrictions on China are projected to cost NVIDIA roughly $8 billion in lost sales. That’s real. But it’s also being offset by explosive growth in other global markets. 🔹 Inventory Write-Down: A $4.5 billion hit due to inventory adjustments. It's a short-term bruise, not a structural fracture. 🔹 Still Crushing Expectations: Even with these headwinds, NVIDIA continues to beat estimates and outperform peers. This is what execution looks like under pressure. The headlines might look shaky — but the engine is still roaring. 📈 Technicals: What Do the Charts Say? Even if you're a fundamentals-first investor like me, it pays to respect the chart. Momentum reflects psychology — and right now, sentiment is riding high. 🔹 Key support level at $130 — buyers step in here consistently. 🔹 Resistance zones at $143 and $150 — breaking above these could trigger further momentum. 🔹 50-day moving average at $135 — the stock is trading above this line, suggesting strength. 🔹 Golden Cross + Bull Flag — classic technical signals of an uptrend continuation. Bulls are still in control. When price action and fundamentals align — that’s when conviction turns into action. 🧠 Bottom Line: Should You Buy NVIDIA? Let’s get honest. NVIDIA is not a value trap. It’s a compounder — a business with the financials, growth, and market position to continue dominating for years. Is it risky? Yes. All growth stories are. But the data doesn’t lie: ✅ Strong balance sheet ✅ Massive cash flow ✅ Global AI leadership ✅ Undervalued by multiple models Even conservative valuation models suggest NVIDIA is trading below its true worth. 🚀 Want To Analyze Stocks Like This Without Doing All the Math? I built Wallstreet Alchemist AI to help investors do this kind of deep analysis — in seconds. It’s designed for people who want to think like Warren Buffett but move like a quant. 🎯 You can try it for free. Let AI do the heavy lifting — while you make sharper, conviction-driven decisions. What stock do you want me to break down next? Drop a comment or DM me. This is the kind of investing edge I wish I had when I started. Let’s level up together.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Wallstreet_Alchemist
2
Trade Idea: Long XAUUSD (BUY STOP) Bias: Long Order Type: Buy Stop Entry: 3392.60 (above current swing high & clean momentum continuation) Stop Loss: 3379.00 (below local support & M15 20/50 SMA) Take Profit: 3430.00 Risk-Reward: ~2.7R ⸻ 📈 Multi-Timeframe Breakdown: H4: • Structure remains bullish. • Price is breaking out of a range with a clean reclaim of both SMAs. • Momentum increasing, MACD histogram turning up, signaling trend continuation. M15: • Strong impulsive rally from ~3290s to ~3390. • Higher highs and higher lows cleanly respected. • Price consolidating at the highs—ideal for breakout continuation setups. M3: • Momentum is persistent with shallow pullbacks. • Small flag forming near 3390 = ideal for a stop entry just above. • RSI cooling off but still in bullish structure—no divergence yet. ⸻ 🧠 Trade Logic: This is a momentum continuation play after a clean intraday impulse. The market has shown strong upside commitment across all timeframes and is now pausing in a flag/pennant above the breakout zone. A buy stop avoids chasing and only gets triggered if the market confirms with new demand. ⸻ 🛡️ Risk Management & Execution: • Invalidation Window (SL-to-BE Zone): Move SL to breakeven once price closes above 3401 on M3 with bullish structure. → This marks a clear micro higher high and exit from the current consolidation range. • SL Placement Justification: 3379 is just below the M15 demand zone and SMA confluence—if price breaks below, momentum has failed. • Entry Execution: If the flag structure gets invalidated before entry (e.g., price dips sharply), cancel the buy stop. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by KeN-WeNzEl