Fundamental Analysis
After the US pivoted monetary policy : ??At the beginning of the trading session on December 19 (US time), the world gold price continued to decrease after the US announced the number of unemployment benefit applications was 220,000, down from the forecast of 230,000 applications. This prompted the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the future.
Previously, gold investors were disappointed when the Fed sent out an unfavorable signal right after the monetary policy meeting on December 18. The US Central Bank issued a new forecast, showing that there will be 2 rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts next year.
According to independent metal trader Tai Wong, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he will slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the context of persistent inflation.
This message from the Fed will make the gold price trend worse in the long term.
According to analysts, the gold market has been volatile at times after the US pivoted its monetary policy. Specifically, the FED is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 0.5 percentage points only twice in 2025. This is a big change compared to the FED's announcement in September 2024 that there would be 4 interest rate cuts next year. This move has stimulated a very strong increase in the price of the USD and US bond interest rates.
Because gold is priced in USD, when the "health" of this currency is stronger, it will put pressure on the price of this precious metal. Higher US bond interest rates have attracted investors to put capital into bonds, reducing demand for gold.
Gold Market Update: Response to Weekly Demand at $2640sGold is responding to weekly and subduing demands at the $2640s, setting the stage for a potential sweep toward the $2660–$2675 range. This movement aligns with bullish attempts to capitalize on supply zones for continuation or reversal opportunities. follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
Gold Market Update: Imbalance Liquidation Targets $2620–$2580Gold continues to align with the imbalance liquidation between $2620 and $2580. The recent prominent support at $2605 is under pressure; if it fails to hold, further sweeps around $2619 could occur. The bearish momentum remains intact, aiming to secure weekly demands below the $2600 level.
yall should stay cautious, hedge along with AK , and prepare for potential volatility as the market seeks equilibrium .follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
Gold is still in a long term uptrend.At the beginning of the trading session on December 19 (US time), the world gold price continued to decrease after the US announced the number of unemployment benefit applications was 220,000, down from the forecast of 230,000 applications. This prompted the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the future.
Previously, gold investors were disappointed when the Fed sent out an unfavorable signal right after the monetary policy meeting on December 18. The US Central Bank issued a new forecast, showing that there will be 2 rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts next year.
According to independent metal trader Tai Wong, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he will slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the context of persistent inflation.
This message from the Fed will make the gold price trend worse in the long term.
Multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that demand for gold will remain strong as central banks seek to diversify their reserves, especially after Russia's assets are frozen in 2022.
🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2607 - 2609🔥
💵 TP1: 2600
💵 TP2: 2590
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2615
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Analysis Company Overview:
D-Wave Quantum NYSE:QBTS is a pioneer in commercial quantum computing, leveraging its annealing-based quantum technology to address complex computational challenges. Its first-mover advantage in quantum solutions positions it as a key player in this emerging industry.
Key Catalysts:
Differentiated Technology:
D-Wave’s annealing-based quantum model sets it apart from competitors focused on gate-based systems, enabling practical, near-term solutions for optimization problems across industries.
Government and Defense Partnerships:
Increasing traction with key clients like the U.S. Department of Defense and other government agencies validates D-Wave’s credibility and enhances its potential for lucrative long-term contracts.
Strong Revenue Projections:
Wall Street forecasts a nearly 70% revenue growth to $14.8 million by 2025, reflecting rising demand for D-Wave’s quantum solutions and marking progress toward scalability and profitability.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on QBTS above the $3.75-$3.80 range, supported by its competitive technology, increasing adoption, and strategic partnerships.
Upside Potential: Our upside target for QBTS is $9.00-$10.00, driven by expanding commercial applications, strong revenue growth, and continued government traction.
🚀 QBTS—Harnessing Quantum Power to Solve Tomorrow’s Challenges Today. #QuantumComputing #Innovation #TechGrowth
Gold vs. Silver: Is the Ratio Signaling a Major ShiftIntroduction:
Precious metals are displaying promising price action, warranting a closer look at the gold AMEX:GLD to silver AMEX:SLV ratio. This ratio provides valuable insights during bull markets:
Bullish Silver: In a strong bull market, silver typically outperforms gold, causing the ratio to decline.
Gold Leading: Recently, gold has taken the lead, advancing in a corrective rally, but there are signs this could change.
Analysis:
Inverted Saucer Formation: On the gold-to-silver ratio chart, a large inverted saucer formation is emerging. This bearish pattern indicates a potential breakdown below key support levels, signaling silver’s outperformance in the months ahead.
What to Watch:
A confirmed breakdown of support in this ratio could signal a major shift in favor of silver.
If silver outperforms, prices could surge to retest its 2011 highs of $48-$50 next year.
Gold Outlook: Despite the shift in favor of silver, gold remains bullish. A breakout could target significant upside, with price projections of $3,300-$3,400.
Trade Setup:
Silver Bullish Setup:
Trigger: A breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio, confirming silver’s relative strength.
Target: SLV retesting $48-$50.
Stop Loss: Manage risk by placing stops near recent support levels in silver.
Gold Bullish Setup:
Gold continues to show strength, targeting $3,300-$3,400. Monitor for breakouts in gold prices alongside silver’s potential surge.
Conclusion:
The precious metals setup looks increasingly bullish. The gold-to-silver ratio is hinting at a shift toward silver outperformance, a hallmark of true bull markets. If this scenario plays out, silver could retest its 2011 highs, while gold targets new all-time highs. This is a chart and setup worth keeping a close eye on in the coming months. Which metal do you think will lead the charge? Share your thoughts below!
Charts:
(Include charts showing the gold-to-silver ratio with the inverted saucer formation, key support levels, and projected breakdown targets. Add gold and silver price charts highlighting bullish setups.)
Tags: #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #GLD #SLV #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingIdeas
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period...
BULL MARKET PULL BACKS
Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels.
The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE).
We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post).
ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING?
As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market.
CME GAP
Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles.
To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post.
The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close.
NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle.
21W EMA & 20W SMA
Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC.
ORANGE TREND LINE
Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher.
* Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top.
* Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s).
Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
GALAUSDT: Bullish Trend (AB=CD Pattern)GALA is moving in down trend on short time frame, but on the 4hr time frame its making correction and forming AB=CD Pattern. If GALA is maintain on C point and making bullish divergence on any short time frame so its must be touch the D point, So we will wait and observe the Bullish Divergence on any short time frame with break of the LHs to confirmation of the bullish trend and take a long trade with proper Risk Management.
GBP/USD: Bearish Momentum Holds Below 1.2500GBP/USD trades around 1.2490, showing weakness for the third consecutive day, with the daily chart indicating a bearish bias within a descending channel. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, projecting a 2025 rate of 3.9% (up from 3.4% in September). Powell emphasized caution and a slower path for future rate cuts, while the BoE kept rates steady at 4.75%. The strengthening of the US Dollar has been supported by rising Treasury yields, although improving global risk sentiment might limit further gains. A break below the 1.2450 support could push the price towards 1.2400, while a move above 1.2530 might open the door to a potential test of 1.2600, though this remains unlikely without favorable catalysts.
GBP/CAD - H4 - Strong BreakoutThe GBP/CAD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.7761
2nd Support – 1.7570
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Is MNTUSDT Gearing Up for a Rally or a Major Breakdown?Yello, Paradisers! Is MNTUSDT preparing for an explosive breakout, or are we staring at the possibility of a deep pullback? The chart is at a critical decision point, and what happens next could define the trend for the coming weeks. Let’s break it down.
💎#MNTUSDT recently tested a significant resistance zone around $1.2651, marked by heavy seller activity in the past. The rejection from this level suggests that buyers need more momentum to push through and sustain higher levels.
💎The price is now raising the probability of a bullish continuation from a demand zone near $1.00, which previously acted as a springboard for the last rally. This zone aligns with the 100 EMA, providing additional technical confluence for potential support.
💎Below the demand zone lies a crucial support level at $0.8775–$0.9227. If the price loses this level, it could open the floodgates for a significant decline.
💎If #MNTUSDT holds above $1.00 and buyers regain control, we could see a rebound toward the resistance zone at $1.2651. A breakout above $1.2651 could trigger a strong rally, with upside targets at $1.50 and potentially as high as $1.80 in the coming weeks.
💎A breakdown below $0.8775 would signal weakness, invalidating the current demand zone. This could result in a sharp drop, with potential downside targets at $0.70 and even $0.60, suggesting a bearish reversal in market structure.
💎The MACD is showing signs of slowing momentum, hinting at the possibility of consolidation or further downside unless buyers step in strongly. The 100 EMA remains a key dynamic support level that bulls must defend to maintain the bullish bias.
Stay disciplined, Paradisers. Let the market confirm its direction before making any commitments. Whether it’s a rally or a correction, being prepared and patient will always set you apart from the majority. Play it smart, stay focused, and always prioritize capital preservation.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade Idea over the breakout of 2604.02 leXAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade idea over the breakout of 2604.02 level.
Gold fell on the recent 18 Dec 2024 FOMC, and on 19 Dec 2024 the unemployment data was strong for the US dollar, so now I am watching the buy-side trade idea over the breakout of the 2604.02 level with strong confirmations of price at this level.
The setup must meet the required momentum in the price. The sentiments also show the price will move as per the data revelled from various sites.
Setup;
Gold Buy at level: 2604.2-2605.2
Stop Loss: 2599.2 (50 pips) or the low of previous candle
Take Profit; 2623
*Note; If the valid breakout will be found then the setup also valid otherwised find more oppercunity.
WHAT NEXT FOR BITCOIN?Will December Be Good for Bitcoin? A Look at Past Trends
As December approaches, Bitcoin traders often wonder if this month will be positive for crypto or if it will end in losses. Let's look at how Bitcoin has performed each December for the past 10 years:
Bitcoin's December Trends (2013–2023)
2013: Started at ~$1,000 and ended at ~$750 (-25%). Early excitement faded due to profit-taking and worries about Mt. Gox.
2014: Started at ~$375 and ended at ~$320 (-15%). The Mt. Gox hack earlier in the year hurt confidence.
2015: Started at ~$360 and ended at ~$430 (+19%). Renewed optimism brought a small rally.
2016: Started at ~$740 and ended at ~$960 (+30%). This steady increase hinted at the big run in 2017.
2017: Started at ~$10,800 and ended at ~$14,000 (+30%). Bitcoin reached a peak mid-month but started a bear market by year-end.
2018: Started at ~$4,000 and ended at ~$3,800 (-5%). The market was down 80% from its peak.
2019: Started at ~$7,500 and ended at ~$7,200 (-4%). Modest losses as the market was stable.
2020: Started at ~$19,500 and ended at ~$29,000 (+48%). COVID-19 increased Bitcoin’s popularity, leading to big gains.
2021: Started at ~$57,000 and ended at ~$46,000 (-19%). Concerns about inflation led to a drop.
2022: Started at ~$17,000 and ended at ~$16,500 (-3%). The FTX collapse kept the market weak.
2023: Started at ~$40,000 and ended at ~$42,500 (+6%). A recovery year with modest gains.
What to Watch for in December 2024
1. Federal Reserve Policy: An expected rate cut on December 18 has supported market optimism. A change in this plan could affect prices.
2. Institutional Investment: Bitcoin ETFs have gained popularity, attracting over $100 billion in 2024.
3. Market Sentiment: With Bitcoin above $100,000, the target is now $125,000, but volatility is possible.
4. Political Factors: President-elect Trump’s pro-crypto stance, with promises of favorable policies, adds to the market’s positive outlook.
Looking to 2025
Bitcoin’s future looks promising with growing institutional and consumer interest, friendly regulations, and a supportive economic environment. While $108,000 is a milestone, many expect even higher prices as Bitcoin continues to evolve.
As 2024 ends, traders can expect more action. Stay ready, watch the market, and best of luck in the new year.
Gold on CPI day Gold is now trading near the supply zone levels (2705.00: 2720) If gold remains stable below these levels and the CPI news comes positive for the dollar, it will support gold to fall to levels of 2665.00 then 2655.00 and in case of breaking the upward trend shown on the chart, there will be a strong decline, we may see levels of 2620.00 then 2605.00
Next Target for EURUSD
Yesterday, EURUSD reached resistance levels and bounced back.
This is the main direction following the news.
If the previous low is broken, the support levels are 1,0329 and 1,0271.
During periods of lower trading volumes, the price is more likely to continue trading sideways.
In such situations, using the Volatility Trading System will bring the best results!
GBPAUD Bullish Trade Idea from 2.00381-2.0082GBPAUD Bullish Trade Idea
The price fell from the 2.02834 zone and hit back the 2.00381 zone, just respecting the recent support level.
Now the important question is: does the price just test back and wait for the confirmation candle over this zone to reach the next level?
In H4, the bear pressure will increase over time, and the volume increased with sentiments also showing that more volume on the buy side. and the major zone will be tested.
Key level: if the market breaks the support, then we must see at the 1.99567 zone, but on the other side, the Pound index is strong enough.
When the market breaks the 2.00820 level, put buy trade.
Buying zone: 2.00381 - 2.0082
Stop loss: 1.99778
Take Profit Level: 2.0158-2.02763
Gold will fall excessively.Scenario takes stage and now it's time.From early Jan to dec,gold almost hits half of its price when hits $2790,
Now before 2025,market buyers will taking profit from what thay have made this year.
$1980 to 2790.
That's huge from all over the period of trade in gold.
Fundamentals will support this idea and technical will favour it.
As fed signals fewer rate cuts next year n market falls in technical correction cycle.
So now sold n hold untill another shift in *geopolitics*.
Expected tgt $2560-2540-2400.
Ruh Roh, looks like SPY's in trouble..Hey guys,
Thought I would do a written post this time because there is a lot of information to share!
So, if you follow me, you know I am mostly about math, but I also like to include the chart, some technicals and some fundamentals. And I think at this point in time its very critical to consider all these factors when analyze the price action we see.
So SPY is selling. To be honest, I am not surprised of the selling, but I am surprised of the timing. I thought it would wait till January, just chopping around and topping before doing the whole waterfall thing. But it decided to jump on the opportunity with FOMC's news release. We will get into that in one second.
So with that catalyst, SPY began its decline, over 2% in one day, closing below a loss of 2% on the day. We then opened slightly gapped up but failed to start, where we continued to tank.
So what is going on?
Fundamentals
The market got what it wanted, a 25 basis point cut. However, the guidance offered by the feds was a bit more realistic and sobering. The guidance essentially indicated that rate cuts would not continue for long and they don't anticipate anymore than 2 rate cuts into next year, leading to a period of rate purgatory so to speak. This is generally not great because it destroys the premise of "easy money". Easy money is money that people can get due to low interest rates and a surplus of fund availability. However, with the lack of rate cuts, we will hover at a stable albeit elevated interest rate with no outlook of when rates will be lowered and when interest rates will be cheaper.
This is bad, because in order for people to feel wealthier, they need to feel like things are cheaper or that they have more money, which isn't a direct consequence of prolonged rate hiking. This means that people will be less inclined to invest into unnecessary things (stock market perhaps) and keep funds safe for whatever the future may hold.
The reason the feds can take this stance is because the labour market is rebounding. This means that people are generally gainfully employed and can withstand the rate hikes / rate stagnation.
Not necessarily detrimental for the market, but in general, higher unemployment is good for the big picture of markets because it means rates will need to be lower.
This leads to the next fundamental topic, Money!
2024 marked historic deficit highs for the US, with 1.8 trillion deficit in 2024. And if you watched my video about SPX and the money supply, having a US index valued well over all the monetary supply in circulation within the US, its not a normal or healthy or sustainable thing, especially when the US is already experiencing grave deficits.
PE ratios
I won't get into this too much, but take a look at some companies PE ratios in relation to their fundamentals, things were getting a little off kilter here...
Now for the Math
If you followed me through the last little crash SPY / SPX did in the end of July, you would have remembered this video:
In this video, I explain my own theory of "corrections". From my own research looking at DJI and SPX (since both have histories since the 1800s), one thing I have noted is there are generally 3 stages of correction, from a math perspective.
Stage 1: Cubic Correation
This is a shallow correction and involves a correction to the 'cubic' mean of a ticker or index. It generally results when the ticker, specifically spy, exceeds the cubic mean by up to 5%.
Currently, SPY's cubic mean is 557, with the actual range being 555 - 559. Remember, this moves with each passing day. That is just as of right now, today's close. In 20 days the range will be up to 563.
These corrections are shallow and usually involve about a 5% to 10% pullback. As of right now, the cubic mean is approximately 8% away from the recent highs.
Stage 2: Quartic Correction
If the market isn't satisfied with a cubic correction (for general interest, in July we simply did a cubic correction back to 510 and then resumed the uptrend), we will see next a quartic correction.
This is a reversion to the quartic mean, which generally is an addition 10 to 15% away.
In SPY's case currently, the quartic mean is 544, with a range of 542 - 546/
This is a deeper correction but not necessarily a bear market. Quartic corrections usually are the halmark of "flash crashes".
Stage 3: Quadratic Correction, AKA Bear Market Cycle
In 2022 we had a quadratic correction, that was a regression to the quadratic mean. If you have been around for a long time and followed me through 2022, you will remember I called a move to 350s. Most thought I was nuts, but it was because SPY had already fallen through the cubic mean and that signaled that it was intent on following through to a quartic and possibly quadratic. It was confirmed relatively quickly in 2022, at least for me, that it was looking for a quadratic correction (i.e. bear market cycle) as it quickly fell through both cubic and quartic means.
Currently, SPY's quadratic mean is 475, with a range of 472 to 477.
Quadratic corrections take, on average, 6 months to a year, which is the normal bear market cycle.
Only once have I observed a fall below the quadratic range and that was in 2008 (obviously I wasn't trading at this time, but when I was testing these theories this was the only year where the market didn't get stopped by the bottom of the quadratic range, every other bear market/correction got halted at the bottom of the quadratic range or at the quadratic mean itself).
So what does this mean for you the trader?
It means relax. We haven't even seen a cubic correction as of yet. For SPY to assert a bear market cycle thesis, we will need to see SPY shoot through the cubic mean.
However, obviously vigilance needs to be maintained. This isn't the time to mindlessly buy dips until we see it finding support on one of the critical means.
Will it correct to the means? Yes, mostly likely we will see at minimum, a cubic correction. The reason I think this is just the fundamentals currently support it.
Will we go lower than the cubic mean?
Hard to say. No one can be sure, obviously. The economic situation isn't super precarious, so I am skeptical of seeing an overly profound dip or the commencement of a bear market, but I will be diligently watching where support is found.
How do we know if it doesn't want to correct to one of the means?
This is a good question! Most pullbacks involve at least a correction to one of the means, but there have been times where it bypassed, only to circle back in about a 6-month period.
We will only be sure that SPY does not intend to mean revert if we break a new high from the current high (aka a new ATH) prior to correcting to the mean.
I know this doesn't seem super helpful, but its the only way that is a telltale sign that it doesn't intend on correcting. However, many of these cases where it went back to make a new high, it ended up crashing to the cubic and quartic mean some 1 to 2 months later :-/.
So where should we be looking to buy?
If you want to buy as a swing trade, I would wait to see if this is going to find support at one of the means.
If I wanted to buy as an investor with the long term vision in sight, then you can buy anywhere really. Stocks will only ever permanently go up and bear market cycles and mean corrections are just fleeting passings that are quickly absorbed into obscurity. I bet many of you forgot that we crashed in July ;).
Will it happen quicky?
The average Cubic correction takes about 1 week. In July I think it lasted about 2 weeks because those relentless dip buyers.
Hard to say but the historic average is 1 week.
How do we know if it will go lower?
In July, SPY went 1 point lower than the cubic mean and it was enough to make me, erroneously of course, call the end is nye. I was wrong obviously, because SPY quickly recovered. So I would say, hitting the general cubic range, even if it is below by 1 or 2 points, if it recovers there, that would be a good sign for a continuation up.
Summary
So kudos to you if you read this long!
Moral of this story is we should see a correction, likely greater than 5%, to the cubic mean. Remember the cubic mean is constantly increasing with each passing day, so we will need to be mindful of where it is and when contact is made.
For convenience, I will update with that information as we either completely reverse away from it or approach it.
Don't get too bearish, Cubic corrections are not usually a very bearish thing. Instead, they serve the purpose of providing buying opportunities for late entrants.
The economic situation of the US is right now uncertain until Trump takes presidency. Not sure of his economic plans, but in general he has stimulated economic growth. This would of course be good for markets.
Hopefully you found this informative. There were other things I wanted to discuss but I think this is enough for now.
Leave your questions below and safe trades everyone!