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Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for April 23, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) declined against its US counterpart for a second straight day on Wednesday and retreated further from the multi-month peak reached the previous day. The Trump administration officials' comforting comments on US-China trade talks triggered a sharp rebound in global risk sentiment, which in turn had a strong impact on traditional safe-haven assets, including the yen. Moreover, a slight recovery in the US dollar (USD) from multi-year lows, supported by easing concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, pushed the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high, a level above 143.000 during the Asian session. Growing optimism that the US and Japan are moving closer to a temporary trade agreement is helping the yen, which reacted weakly to unimpressive domestic PMIs, to pause its intraday decline. In addition, strengthening expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates in 2025 is keeping JPY bears from betting aggressively. Meanwhile, investors are losing confidence in the US economy amid Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policy. This, as well as bets that the Fed will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle, is holding back the dollar and taking the USD/JPY pair below 142.000 in the last hour. Trading recommendation: SELL 141.700, SL 142.100, TP 140.500
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Euro dollar, $1.15 is a major technical resistance$1.15, a technical target that was expected Since the beginning of the year, the euro dollar has established itself as the leader of the foreign exchange market (Forex). Up by more than 10%, it has outperformed all other major Forex pairs, and this upward movement has been built up in stages from a technical analysis point of view. The major chart target of $1.15 has now been reached, a pivotal technical threshold that dates back to 2020/2021. Since the start of the year, there have been a series of bullish reversal signals on the EUR/USD rate, with a break of resistance at $1.06 in early March, a bullish reversal pattern reminiscent of autumn 2022, and a recently validated golden cross. Elliott wave analysis suggested an end to wave 2 in February, which was validated by price action and momentum indicators. The $1.15 mark had been the technical target since the $1.06 mark was breached, and the market could now breathe a sigh of relief below this resistance. Below is a chart showing the performance of the major Forex pairs since the beginning of the year. Institutional traders were again the forerunners But what gives even more weight to this move is the behavior of institutional traders. As is often the case, they were the first to sense the bullish reversal. The COT report published by the CFTC shows that, from the beginning of March, hedge funds swung into the long camp, with their net positions returning to positive territory. Shortly afterwards, asset managers followed suit, and the entire institutional net position went bullish by over 50%, historically a major bullish signal (see the second chart below). Now the real question is: are they still buying at these levels? Do they strengthen? If they start to lighten up, it'll be a game-changer. But for now, support is there, even if the euro-dollar rate were to pause or retrace below $1.15 resistance in the short term. Support at $1.10/$1.12 is the guarantor of the uptrend. Below, chart showing weekly Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD rate, with the institutional positioning curve according to the CFTC's COT report So, can we aim for $1.20 by the end of 2025? From a purely technical point of view, it's not impossible, but we'd need to break above $1.15/$1.17 to activate such a target. And fundamentally, it won't happen by itself. A combination of factors is needed: a euro buoyed by German economic momentum, the end of the conflict in Ukraine, an accommodating but credible ECB, and above all, a weakened US dollar, which requires a healthy “FED put”, in other words, a FED that eases because disinflation is confirmed, and not under the constraint of a recession. We also need to keep a close eye on interest-rate spreads: a spread too favorable to the dollar would break the momentum. In short, $1.20 is technically conceivable between now and the end of the year, but conditional on a macroeconomic context that is not yet present. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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by Swissquote
BEARISH ON THE EUROI've taken a short position on EG, prior to PMI data being released over the next few hours. Yesterday, I managed to get nice sells on this with the technicals provided, to the "weak low" as you see on the chart. Looking this morning, I expect this trend to continue and dont see a bullish angle on this pair yet until we see a deeper retracement - which is what Im involved in currently. Fundamentally, Services PMIs tend to matter more for the UK, which is heavily services driven (80% of GDP), with manufacturing PMIs mattering more for Germany, the EU’s engine. BoE - Slower to commit to cuts due to persistant wage growth and services inflation. ECB - They are much more dovish in recent statements. Core inflation has been easing, and rate cuts are on the table as early as Q2/Q3.
Short
by JUGGSONGO
GOLD heading to $3,450 or a bull trap ahead?XAUUSD has shown a strong bullish reversal from the key zone at $2,832, with a series of high-volatility, full-bodied weekly candles that completely absorbed the supply in the $3,050–3,140 area. The breakout of previous weekly and monthly highs confirmed a bullish structural shift, with a natural technical target around $3,450—its recent all-time high. Price reacted precisely to previously tested demand blocks, suggesting that buy-side pressure may still have room to expand. However, a deeper look at COT data reveals a more complex picture: Money Managers’ net positions on GOLD have been declining sharply for months, diverging from price action. This may indicate a rally driven more by retail flows or ETFs than by institutional strength, making it potentially unstable. Additionally, the COT report on the Dollar Index shows growing net long positions among leveraged traders, signaling USD strength—historically a headwind for gold. In summary, gold remains technically bullish with room to climb to $3,450, but COT data raises a red flag: if institutional positions don’t realign with the move, this rally could turn out to be a bull trap. From a trading perspective, there’s room for aggressive longs, but only with tight risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Why Did 3M Stock Soar Despite Tariff Clouds?Shares of industrial giant 3M Co. experienced a significant rally following the release of its first-quarter 2025 financial results. The surge was primarily driven by the company reporting adjusted earnings and total net sales that exceeded Wall Street's expectations. This performance signaled a stronger operational footing than analysts had anticipated. The positive results stemmed from several key factors highlighted in the report. 3M demonstrated solid organic sales growth and achieved notable adjusted operating margin expansion. This margin improvement reflects the effectiveness of management's ongoing cost-cutting initiatives and strategic focus on operational efficiency, contributing directly to double-digit growth in earnings per share during the quarter. While the company did warn about potential future impacts on 2025 profit due to rising global trade tensions and tariffs, management also detailed proactive strategies to mitigate these risks. Plans include supply chain adjustments, pricing actions, and leveraging their global manufacturing network, potentially increasing U.S. production. The company maintained its full-year adjusted earnings guidance, notably stating that this outlook already incorporates the anticipated tariff effects. Investors likely responded positively to the combination of strong quarterly performance and clear actions to address identified headwinds.
NYSE:MMMLong
by UDIS_View
BTC on high time frame "Hello traders, focusing on BTC on high time frames, the price is currently in a bearish trend on the weekly chart but is indicating potential movement towards $92,000 for the next scenario. Depending on your strategy as either a holder or trader, consider your approach for the short or long term. In my view, $78,000 appears to be a favorable zone for buying." If you need further assistance or have any specific questions, feel free to let me know!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by somayehbasiri
Is the Altcoin Season Over?Is the Altcoin Season Over? What's truly unfolding for Bitcoin is precisely the weekly analysis I've laid out for you. While many of you might be eagerly anticipating an extraordinary altcoin season, the harsh reality is that there isn't going to be one. Instead, we've been riding a Bitcoin-dominated season. And once the trend you see in the chart plays out, the market will essentially come to a close, paving the way for a heavy downward spiral for both altcoins and Bitcoin. It's a bitter truth, but it's the reality we're facing
by aminsmithfx
2
EUR/USD Bearish Setup Unfolding Below Key Resistance📊 Technical Analysis of EUR/USD (4H Chart) 🧭 Chart Overview: Current Price: ~1.1350 Indicators Used: EMA 50 (Red): ~1.1311 — acting as dynamic support. EMA 200 (Blue): ~1.1114 — aligns closely with major support zone. 📌 Key Levels: 🔼 Main Resistance Zone: 1.1375 – 1.1400 Price has tested this zone multiple times, forming a potential double top pattern. Strong bearish pressure observed each time price enters this area. 🔁 Minor Resistance (Retest Zone): ~1.1325 – 1.1345 Currently acting as a decision zone. If price fails to hold above this level, it could turn into resistance on the next bearish leg. 🔽 Support Zone: 1.1100 – 1.1130 Converges with EMA 200 — making it a high-probability demand zone. Potential target for the anticipated drop. 🧠 Price Action & Structure: Market showed a strong bullish rally previously, breaking through resistance levels. Now showing signs of exhaustion at the top. Bearish scenario projected with a lower high forming below the main resistance, followed by a sell-off toward the support zone. ⚙️ Possible Scenarios: Bearish Scenario (High Probability): Price rejects the minor resistance → breaks below EMA 50 → continues lower to support. Target: 1.1110 area. Bullish Scenario (Low Probability): Price reclaims and closes above 1.1375 with strong momentum. Potential breakout and continuation toward 1.1450+. 🧩 Confluences Supporting Bearish Bias: Lower high formation potential. EMA 50 starting to flatten. Failure to maintain momentum above main resistance. Clean drop path toward 1.1110 if support breaks. 📉 Conclusion: This setup favors short-term bearish movement, particularly if the price rejects around the 1.1345 level again. A breakdown below the minor resistance zone would likely trigger a sell-off toward the 1.1110 support, in line with the 200 EMA.
Short
by MrStellanSight
12
XAU/USD Target Achieved – $3,500 Successfully Hit 🔥 XAU/USD Target Smashed – $3,500 HIT! 🎯💰 Gold has officially reached $3,500, perfectly hitting our projected buy target! This move confirms the strength of the bullish momentum and technical breakout setup. 🔹 Entry: Above $3,430 🔹 Final Target: ✅ $3,500 – Hit 🔹 Result: High-conviction setup delivered with precision 🔹 Trend: Remains bullish, but profit-taking expected at round number resistance 👏 Massive congrats to all who followed the plan — another clean win on XAU/USD!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrStellanSight
6