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Fundamental Analysis

Dogecoin at its crossroads: Moment of truthHello, fellow traders! This is my analysis on Dogecoin as well as the market sentiment overall. 1️⃣ Technical Analysis on Dogecoin There are four major analyses for Dogecoin. 1. Dogecoin broke below the uptrend channel on December 12th. We see Dogecoin breaking below the daily uptrend channel after touching the channel’s resistance line. The price attempted a bullish rebound on December 11th but failed, resulting in the break below and raising concerns about the future of the rally. 2. Dogecoin broke below the Price Action Zone yesterday. Even after breaking below the channel, there was still a chance for Dogecoin to reenter the channel. If the price was within the Price Action Zone (PAZ), the rally could still have continued. However, exiting the PAZ greatly discourages this. 3. Dogecoin formed a ‘Double Top’ pattern. Dogecoin, having formed two tops on November 23rd and December 8th, has broken below the neckline of 0.36482, which is a valid sign for a possible downtrend. 4. Dogecoin broke below the rectangular box. Another bearish sign, similar to the PAZ breakthrough and the Double Top pattern, as the price of Dogecoin breaks below the rectangular box. All of these are strong signs that are foreshadowing the bearish momentum. However, the price of Dogecoin has currently rebounded after touching the major level of 0.34010, forming a bullish hammer candle. So, does this signal a good entry for long? What are we to expect from Dogecoin – and the market itself, for that matter? 2️⃣ Understanding the market It's essential to understand the overall market movements first and also the reason behind them. The crypto market has left investors with confusion over the past few days, but Bitcoin is continuing its bullish rally for now. Let’s have a look at the Bitcoin chart. With Bitcoin falling over 5% yesterday, it is currently climbing back up with a green hammer candle. Today’s candle is particularly important as the price has touched both the support line of the current uptrend channel and the upper side of the major demand zone. Showing the rebound at this AoC (Area of Confluence – where more than two lines, zones or levels intersect) could indicate an additional climb especially with Bitcoin’s price remaining within the channel. However, if the candle closes red, ignoring the AoC, this could heavily discourage the market’s bullish momentum. BTC Dominance also continues to rise yet is forming a ‘shooting star’ candle today (for now) as altcoins including Dogecoin faces rebound. Ethereum presents a particularly intriguing chart as it attempts to reenter the uptrend channel after breaking below yesterday. If the bullish momentum is strong enough, it could reenter the channel before today’s candle closes. Today’s candles for these cryptos are important because they could shape the future direction of the market. Bitcoin closing below the channel could spark fear throughout the entire market and question many of the rally’s continuation. Same goes for Dogecoin: the candle is currently green, but with considerable time remaining until the candle closes, Dogecoin could face downtrend – possibly toward 0.22930. Dogecoin exiting the uptrend channel & PAZ already shows that it has lost much of the bullish momentum it showed last month. It is important to understand the context of the sharp decline yesterday – many of you may already be aware but for those who are not – the US Fed interest rate has been cut to 4.50% (from 4.75%). While this is typically a good sign for the market, the Fed also hinted that there will be fewer cuts in 2025 – triggering sharp declines across the major markets including stock and crypto. Another (and more significant) thing worth noting as a crypto trader is that Fed Chair Powell has commented, “That’s the kind of thing that Congress to consider, but we are not looking for a law change,” when asked about the possibility of digital assets being held by the central bank. His answer, implying that the central bank currently has neither the legal right nor the intention of owning the digital currency, impacted the crypto market furthermore – because the current rally has mostly been driven by the hype of ‘digital currencies being adopted by the governments & banks as tools to cover their financial challenges such as paying national debt.’ But with Fed Chair dropping the axe that this is not going to happen (at least for a while), the rally loses its purpose – which could heavily damage its momentum. And the fear has already been reflected by the market as we see the sharp decline. 3️⃣ What to expect? Before sharing my insights, I want to emphasize the following first: The Crypto market, notorious for its high volatility, maintained its reputation today as Dogecoin’s price fluctuated wildly. (Being a full-time trader,) I’ve watched price moving up and down multiple times – at one point, it almost seemed like the price would drop straight down to 0.22930, only to reverse direction minutes later. Be very, extremely cautious – it is always wise to stay passive and observant before diving in instead of trading instantly upon price touching or breaking the major levels or zones - even if they look promising. Market is often very unpredictable. Bitcoin seems to be performing well as the price remains within its uptrend channel. However, the same cannot be said for Dogecoin or Ethereum. (Some altcoins like Uxlink are showing unusual movements despite the market sentiment, but these are most likely cases of manipulation and should be considered exceptions.) Dogecoin has already lost a big part of its bullish momentum and Ethereum is also stumbling with its price breaking below the channel. Of course, this is not to say or assume that the rally is over – no one knows the future. Consolidation often means building momentum for a bigger leap. Nothing is to be assumed. For example, in my recent post on Ark CRYPTO:ARKUSD , I’ve mentioned that it is very unlikely that we would see a rebound at the AoC (red box in the chart below) due to the market sentiment then, but here we are with the possibility. But it is true that the current chart of Dogecoin is currently leaning more towards the bearish side. If the price breaks below the red dotted line (0.34010) or even shows the bearish reversal upon touching (or nearing) the major zones or levels, there’s a chance the bearish movement would continue, granting us the short opportunities. (Also, it’s not hard to imagine that some form of resistance may occur before any continued decline, so be mindful of a possible last squeeze – if the downtrend does materialize.) React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful. God bless :) Romans 5:8
by QJEEE
DXY vs BTC - Don't Fade the FedVery simple concept that people should be aware of. When DXY runs it is because investors are risking off from the market into USD for some reason. Usually DXY will run in opposition to the majority of Stocks, Crypto and other risk on markets. The Fed has announced yesterday that there will be less rate cuts than expected in 2025 and are hawkish causing a market wide selloff into USD and other safe haven assets. This risking off may be done and we could see a reversal on the DXY, a failed breakout: or we could be in for more pain. It's a big warning sign.
by Mrgalaxy
BTC will Fly SoonBTC is currently exhibiting an upward trend, trading within a parallel channel characterized by inclined support and resistance levels. Notably, BTC has experienced three instances of reversal from support and three from Resistance levels. Presently, BTC is positioned at the support level and has initiated a reversal, indicating a directional bias towards the upside. Our recommended buy zone for BTC is between 96500_97500 With potential take Profit level at T.P1= 100000 T.P2= 103000 T.P3= 105000 T.P4= 108000 Having stop loss= 94500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LeonardoTrader9t9
ADAUSDT Technical Analysis What is happening with ADAUSDT? A notable decrease in user participation on the Cardano network has been observed since the end of November. This is reflected in the drop in the number of active addresses and new addresses on the Cardano blockchain. Lower network activity can be interpreted as a lack of interest or use of the platform, which is a negative sign. Decrease in Total Value Locked (TVL) The TVL in Cardano has also shown a downward trend in recent weeks. TVL is the total value of assets locked in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols on a blockchain. A decrease in TVL may indicate a loss of confidence in DeFi projects built on Cardano or a migration of capital to other platforms. Investor Concerns Some investors have expressed frustration and concern about ADA's performance, especially compared to other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Some have even stated that they have achieved better results with other lower market capitalization cryptocurrencies. This dissatisfaction can generate selling pressure on ADA. Unfavorable Comparisons Some users have commented that ADA is underperforming compared to Bitcoin, raising doubts about its growth potential. Analyzing, we can observe that the price is experiencing strong rejection at its current price, which will lead us to a price correction/decline. The asset had almost no upward volatility in this bullish market moment; therefore, any position that is sought should be short (or bearish).
Short
by MysticWhiteU
$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR (December/2024) source: Bank of England The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence. The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$JPINTR - Japan's Interest RateECONOMICS:JPINTR (Devember/2024) source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting of the year, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and meeting market consensus. The vote was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25bps increase. Thursday's decision came despite the US implementing its third rate cut this year, as the BoJ needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly US economic policies under Donald Trump and next year's wage outlook. The board adhered to its assessment that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. Private consumption continued its upward trend, aided by improving corporate profits and business spending. Meanwhile, exports and industrial output remained relatively flat. On inflation, the YoY figures have ranged between 2.0% and 2.5%, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations showed a moderate rise, and the underlying CPI is expected to add gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Long #SKI - Spot Entry no LeverageAlright so almost all alts have taken a nosedive since Fed made announcement. Ski Mask Dog is one of the few that had a healthy retrace from going parabolic for weaks. Retrace was due to people taking profits that gone in weeks/months ago I bought on the last touch of the trendline for about a 0.16 average Has major potential to break out of bull flag soon as sell pressure has gone down and and Ski is at a major discount. Last few wicks reached deep to grab liquidity and we have had a strong bounce upwards after 3rd touch on bull flag Also Ski was on New york Times billboard today. Remember when WIF was on the Vegas sphere and the run that followed? Sometimes a strong community and advertising the right places beats the TA or even tokens that have way better tech and ability. Be careful as things are still uncertain and we could have another retrace but Ski is a still at the current price. DCA if you want but try not to wait for too much of a discount so you don't miss the move. No take profit target as I'm holding until it hits $1.00 which I would bet on happening as a minimum. *Look at the Market Cap of Ski compared to the other meme coins that have run into billion dollar market caps and you can see why SKI gives you a chance for multiples on you money instead of a 2-5x
UNISWAP3BASE:SKIWETH_0EA134.USDLong
by TommyGun24
$TSLA The High-Stakes Bet on Future Growth "Tesla isn’t just an automaker—it’s a revolution in motion, blending cutting-edge technology with daring ambition. But is its sky-high valuation the cost of innovation or the price of perfection?" Introduction Tesla has evolved from a disruptor in electric vehicles (EVs) to a global powerhouse in energy storage, solar technology, and autonomous driving. With 2023 revenue soaring to $96.77 billion, the company is growing at a breakneck pace. Yet, with a forward P/E of 139.93, Tesla's valuation raises questions for investors: does the potential outweigh the risks? This analysis unpacks Tesla’s financials, market position, growth opportunities, and the challenges it faces as an industry leader. Financial Analysis 1. Revenue Growth Tesla's $96.77 billion in revenue for 2023 reflects an impressive 18.8% YoY growth, driven by: EV Sales: Bolstered by demand for the Model Y and Model 3. Energy Storage: Expansion of Tesla’s Megapack installations for grid-scale projects. Services: Growth in software and maintenance revenues. 💡 "Tesla’s revenue streams are diversifying, but EVs remain its lifeblood." 2. Profitability Metrics Net Income: $15 billion, with margins improving despite supply chain challenges. Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.65 TTM, highlighting strong profitability. Tesla's margin growth reflects its operational efficiency and cost control in an inflationary environment. 3. Cash Flow and Liquidity Operating Cash Flow: $14.48 billion—a clear indicator of Tesla’s ability to generate cash from core operations. Free Cash Flow: $3.61 billion after substantial capital expenditures of $10.87 billion. 💡 "Tesla’s aggressive spending on R&D and manufacturing is a double-edged sword: it fuels growth but pressures free cash flow." 4. Valuation Metrics Tesla’s valuation is a hot topic: Forward P/E: 139.93—a sign of immense market optimism but also a cautionary signal. EV/EBITDA: 104.16, reflecting high expectations for future profitability. PEG Ratio: 17.04, showing Tesla’s growth is priced at a premium. Market Position and Competitive Advantage Innovation at the Core Tesla leads in: Battery Technology: Pioneering advances in energy density and lifecycle. Autonomous Driving: A front-runner in full self-driving (FSD) software development. Infrastructure: The Supercharger network provides an unparalleled ecosystem for Tesla owners. Brand Strength Tesla has redefined itself as both a luxury and a technology brand, attracting loyal customers who value innovation and sustainability. Growth Opportunities 1. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology represents a massive untapped revenue stream. If approved and scaled, the potential for: Licensing the tech to other automakers. Launching a robotaxi network. 💡 "FSD is the golden goose, but regulatory hurdles keep it caged—for now." 2. Energy Storage and Solar: Tesla’s Megapack and Powerwall systems are gaining traction in commercial and residential markets, while its solar division capitalizes on the global push for renewable energy. 3. Global Expansion: Tesla continues to scale its manufacturing capacity with Gigafactories worldwide, including new projects in Mexico and expanded operations in China. Risks and Challenges 1. Regulatory and Legal Risks: Autonomous driving faces scrutiny due to safety concerns, while data privacy regulations could impact Tesla’s software-driven business model. 2. Intensifying Competition: The EV market is growing crowded, with legacy automakers like Ford and GM ramping up EV production alongside newcomers like Rivian and Lucid Motors. 3. Execution Risks: Elon Musk’s ambitious roadmap often hinges on breakthroughs that may not materialize on schedule, adding volatility to Tesla’s stock performance. 💡 "Innovation is Tesla’s greatest asset, but execution risks loom large when aiming for the stars." Stock Performance and Institutional Sentiment 1. Price Trends: Tesla’s stock remains volatile, reflecting high sensitivity to news, product announcements, and quarterly earnings. 2. Institutional Ownership: With hedge funds and mutual funds maintaining significant stakes, Tesla continues to attract institutional interest despite its lofty valuation. Conclusion Tesla remains a leader in innovation, with growth prospects spanning EVs, energy storage, and autonomous driving. However, its high valuation demands flawless execution and belief in its long-term vision. For investors, Tesla represents both an opportunity and a challenge—a high-risk, high-reward play that requires conviction in its disruptive potential. Recommendations: Long-Term Investors: Hold or accumulate on dips if you believe in Tesla’s future vision. Short-Term Traders: Consider rebalancing given the current valuation unless a clear catalyst for further upside emerges. 🚀 Want deeper insights into Tesla and other top stocks? Visit DCAlpha.net.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DCAChampion
Fundamental Analysis of EURUSDEURUSD is trading in the support area which has been respected by the price action since December of 2022. Similarly, there is an area of resistance. There are two scenarios based on the current geopolitical tension and the policy of the new administration in the US. Scenario#1: Risk OFF or USD depreciates against EUR and other currency pairs The new US administration will take charge in Jan 2025, and by that time if the Scenario#2 has not happened then the EUR should appreciate significantly against USD. The new administration is expected to be business friendly. The US economy should get an ultra-boost because of lower taxes and less regulations. There are many other promises made by the winning party like the increase in import tariffs on all the countries, deportation etc., maybe those promises were to attract voters. We don't know how it will play out, so we go with the simple approach that republican party means less regulation, hence business friendly. Scenario#2: Risk ON or USD appreciates against EUR and other currency pairs This scenario could play out even before the new administration takes charge!!! We don't know if it is a bluff from Russia or a real threat, but the fear of nuclear war can be frightening. Whenever there are major escalations in the world, the USD appreciates and that is as simple as 1 + 1 = 2, right?
by spranav
1
MSTZ to $32....early Christmas giftLet's start 2025 with a bang! This is my last gift for the year. Microstrategy will be tanking with BTC drop and the rate of decrease has noticeably been steep and purposeful. Thankfully, MSTZ is the superstar that will save the day (2x inverse). The gravity is strong with this one, until consolidation around $32. We're looking at 30%ish upside on this puppy. It will go fast so lock and loaded tomorrow and prob close out in a few hours. As always, do your due diligence and best of luck!
CBOE:MSTZLong
by antonini2002