Xrp - This Triangle Wil Double Your Money!Xrp ( BITSTAMP:XRPUSD ) is retesting a major confluence of support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For a couple of years now, Xrp has been trading in a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern. As we are speaking, Xrp is retesting the lower support trendline and also a horizontal support level. It is quite likely, that we will eventually see a breakout above both triangle patterns on Xrp.
Levels to watch: $0.5, $0.6, $1.0
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Fundamental Analysis
Gold trades steady on Tuesday, having reached a new five-day lowGold (XAU/USD) trades steady after finding support at $2,724 early on Tuesday. It has since bounced back to the $2,730s on the back of a marginally weaker US Dollar (USD), due to uncertainty over the US presidential election. A weaker Greenback, in turn, aids Gold since the precious metal is mostly priced and traded in USD.
The highly-rated election forecaster 538.com indicates a 50% probability of Vice President Harris winning on Tuesday whilst former President Donald Trump has a 49% chance of victory. That leaves a 1% chance of no overall winner. Over the last 24 hours, Harris has edged into the lead after lagging Trump for several days. This may also explain Gold’s turnaround on Tuesday.
Solomon’s Jones is bullish on Gold overall, seeing the election outcome as a “win-win” for the precious metal regardless of which candidate is victorious.
Although the precious metal remains in an uptrend on a medium and long-term basis.
Asad iqbal khan
BTC before final moments: ready to jump? (1H)Hello, fellow traders!
I want to share my thoughts on BTC. Looking at the 1H chart, we see the price has recently touched the weekly resistance line. It is now hovering just above the line instead of breaking out, which is ideal.
I've adjusted the time of the US election and Federal reserve interest rate announcement based on where I live.
The US election is scheduled on the 5th and the initial result will most likely be available before the day ends. Even if it doesn't, general projection would be informative enough to stimulate the market to move accordingly. Western states including California will be the last to close the polls and start processing the votes, but it's likely that the outcome become clear enough before they even finish the process. So my guess is the market would already start moving by 10-11PM (ETZ) since market tends to move ahead based on assumptions. This is around 6PM of 6th in where I live.
If the vote process takes longer (because of the close race or whatever other reasons) than usual, it might take additional 2-3 days which would cause a lot of volatilities that would eventually abate as the result becomes more comprehensible.
I also want to address the US federal reserve interest rate announcement which is scheduled this Thursday - just after the election. This will again impact the crypto market heavily - many are expecting the rate cut for economical growth and if this is true, chances of BTC bull run will definitely increase.
Many are predicting BTC to reach ATH, even up to 90k, 100k, 1m, and some are saying that the bull run will begin no matter who becomes the next potus.
Back to the chart, we see price slightly rebounding as it touches the weekly resistance line.
However, the breakout of the downtrend (marked as a red line) is yet to happen. If the outcome of this election and the interest rate announcement come out favorable to the market, I can only imagine a breakout, then a bull run starting with big momentum.
I've read a lot of posts, comments and news about BTC, I see some saying the halving will begin after the election, others saying BTC will double - interestingly both side had evidence to back them up. Maybe both are true!
I don't think we can comfortably rely on the past data. People have different strategies, different experiences, resulting in different conclusion.
What I understand though is nature of market movements - it moves according to the psychology. And the outcome of the upcoming election and change of interest rate will definitely either encourage people to invest more or withdraw their investments.
Conclusion:
My strategy for BTC is if the breakout (of the red line) occurs and both election and interest rate come out favorable for the market, I will enter LONG.
All the hypes around BTC, current election predictions, news about rate cut really give us the excitement but I don't want to assume anything yet.
I'm just hoping the timing of the breakout aligns with these two events to maximize momentum.
Frankly, I'm looking forward to seeing the results but I'm also not going to try to predict them because I've been wrong many times and have learned from those experiences not to make predictions. Instead, I will react.
If the market moves opposite direction, we'll just simply enter opposite position and take profit. It's that simple.
Doge is overbought but could get a strong push DOGE is showing lots of strength in aligning itself with politics. Speculatively the utility of Dogecoin depends on the result of the elections however the risk is still there. From a price action perspective, the price is very extended to the upside making the way down possible. Momentum and trend oscillators are also overbought however it is possible to see one more move up into the extreme territory. Buying into a structure a setup can consider healthy risk management is the best option for a fresh long.
SMCI Battered Stock SyndromeI've seen this stock in the news a lot about some accounting irregularities (which have apparently existed for a long time with this company). Last time these allegations surfaced was August 2020 (stock is up 1000% since then).
Anyway, wisemen on the daily, momentum divergences and harmonics look bullish here, so I'll take a small pre-earnings gamble on some otm december calls. Probably due for a relief rally right now and a strong earnings report after the close today could help close the gap around $50.
Next Turns Of GoldOur technical analysis of Gold, incorporating both price action and smart money concepts, indicates an upward trend within a parallel channel. However, caution is advised against entering trades blindly, as the metal is currently positioned mid-channel. Trading success is often attributed to 10% buying, 10% selling, and 80% patience. Therefore, we recommend waiting for Gold to approach key support or resistance levels.
Key levels to watch:
- Strong Buying Zone: $2700-$2703
- Strong Selling Zone: $2800-$2805
Our analysis remains unaffected by election outcomes, as Gold has consistently respected support (three times) and resistance (four times) levels. We anticipate similar momentum to persist.
For traders considering immediate entry, selling may be an option, albeit with caution and at one's own risk. Gold has reversed from resistance at $2789, targeting support, although we assign a 60% probability to this move due to Gold's inherent volatility.
Note: This analysis is only for the Long equity Account Holders
BNB SWING LONG IDEA - ALTCOIN SEASON - BNB CHAINBNB is one of the most stable coins in the crypto market. With Binance officially backing it, BNB is relatively safer compared to other altcoins.
Technical Analysis: The price hit and wicked into the monthly demand zone during the August 5th dump, showing a strong rejection and initiating an upward trend. This move established a weekly demand zone by breaking the weekly structure, and as it did so, it created a daily demand zone, which is a significant area for me.
Currently, the price is back into the daily demand and has reached the optimal trade entry zone according to the Fibonacci levels. I anticipate an upward movement from here in the coming days.
Targets: The initial target is $613-$619, with potential to reach the all-time high at $722.
Note: Watch out for the U.S. Presidential Election, as it may cause volatility with long wicks that could stop out positions.
GOLD XAUUSD PREDICTION🇺🇸 How the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Could Impact Your Investments
With the upcoming U.S. presidential election, markets are on edge. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris offer contrasting approaches, which could lead to different outcomes for stocks and gold. Here’s a breakdown of potential impacts under each candidate:
📈 If Trump Wins:
• Stock Market: Known for pro-business policies, Trump may boost investor confidence through tax cuts and deregulation, potentially leading to a stock market rally. However, his tough stance on international trade, especially with China, could create market volatility.
• Gold: Gold typically benefits from uncertainty. If Trump’s approach increases geopolitical tension or economic uncertainty, gold prices could rise. Conversely, a stronger dollar under his policies might limit gold’s growth.
📉 If Harris Wins:
• Stock Market: Harris will likely continue Biden’s policies, focusing on infrastructure and clean energy. These policies could favor sectors like renewable energy. However, possible tax hikes on corporations may cool off overall market enthusiasm.
• Gold: With more regulatory oversight expected, investor caution may drive gold demand as a safe-haven asset, especially if concerns about government spending or inflation arise.
🔍 Key Takeaways:
• Market Volatility: Elections bring uncertainty, so markets may experience short-term swings as investors react to possible policy shifts.
• Long-Term Impact: While election outcomes have immediate effects, the long-term impact depends on actual policy implementations and global economic factors.
Stay tuned and diversified! Elections are just one of many forces shaping financial markets, so having a balanced approach is key.
BTC/USD Trade Setup: False Breakout and Impulsive As the price approached the lower zone on the 4H chart, we switched to the 1H timeframe, where we looked for a buy opportunity after a false breakout. Our target was set at the open level, but after an impulsive bullish candle, we exited the trade with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
The Big Exit | How One Auditor Walked Away from Super MicroThe Governance Shortfall: Inside Super Micro’s Auditor Crisis
On Wednesday, shares of the high performance server and storage solutions provider faced renewed selling pressure after the unexpected resignation of its audit firm, Ernst & Young LLP(EY)
In July 2024, EY alerted the Audit Committee about several concerns related to governance, transparency, internal controls, and the risk of delayed filing of the company's annual report. In response, the Board formed an independent Special Committee to investigate these matters, engaging Cooley LLP and forensic accounting firm Secretariat Advisors, LLC. Although EY and the Board received preliminary updates on the investigation, the final conclusions have not yet been shared.
The ongoing review raised doubts for EY regarding the company’s adherence to the COSO Framework principles for internal controls. EY questioned the company’s commitment to integrity, the independence of the Audit Committee, and the reliability of management’s and the Audit Committee's representations.
In its resignation letter, EY expressed its inability to rely on these representations or be associated with the company's financial statements, citing legal and professional obligations.
Despite the developments, Super Micro has indicated no expected changes to previously issued financial statements. The company plans to provide a Q1/FY2025 business update next week. However, it’s surprising that management didn’t include preliminary Q1 results in Wednesday's announcement, which could have mitigated the negative impact on its stock.
Super Micro is nearing a Nasdaq deadline to either regain compliance with listing requirements or submit a plan. With the auditor’s unexpected departure, it may be difficult for the company to present a viable plan, raising the risk of a near-term delisting.
This resignation comes at a critical time for Super Micro, as its rapid growth requires substantial working capital. Based on management’s projections, FY2025 cash needs could reach up to $3 billion, likely necessitating additional capital early next year. However, raising funds without audited financials could be challenging, potentially forcing Super Micro to relinquish market share to competitors like Dell Technologies or Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
In my view, EY’s departure increases the likelihood of a prolonged accounting review, which could hinder Super Micro’s ability to secure funding for anticipated growth. Therefore, it is crucial for the company to report strong preliminary Q1/FY2025 results and present a positive outlook next week.
Super Micro Computer’s troubles continue, as its auditor resigned due to concerns over management’s integrity and the Audit Committee's independence. This situation makes it unlikely for the company to achieve compliance with Nasdaq requirements soon, raising the potential for a near-term delisting.
With a need to re-enter the capital markets in early 2025, audited financials remain essential. A failure to secure funding could result in significant market share loss to major competitors like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
Given these challenges, the increased risk of prolonged financial review, and a likely near-term delisting, I am reaffirming my "Sell" rating on Super Micro Computer's common shares.
Gold Becomes the Second Largest Central Bank Reserve AssetGold's importance as a reserve asset for central banks is on the rise
According to Bank of America, gold has now overtaken the euro to become the second largest reserve asset, To be more precise, B of A should have specified that it is the eastern hemisphere Central Banks that are diversifying out of the U.S. dollar and the euro and buying gold and yuan. Currently, gold accounts for 16% of global bank reserves, while the dollar has dropped to about 58%, down from over 70% in 2002.
Poland emerged as the largest buyer of gold in the second quarter of this year (though the specific amount purchased by China's PBoC remains undisclosed). Additionally, Poland is requiring that the gold it acquires be delivered directly to its Central Bank, rather than being stored by London banks. Turkey is another significant gold purchaser, and several African nations have also announced plans to increase Central Bank gold reserves.
While it may not happen immediately, there’s potential for gold to surpass the dollar as the top reserve asset, especially if the BRIC nations and other Eastern hemisphere countries go forward with their rumored plans for a gold-backed trade currency. A BRICS Summit will be held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22nd to 24th, where discussions on a new trading currency may take place, though this has not been officially confirmed.
On September 5th, Russia announced plans to ramp up its daily gold purchases from $13.5 million to $93 million (1.2 billion rubles to 8.2 billion rubles) for the next month, using surplus revenue from oil and gas. This information was reported by the Russian news agency, Interfax. This move seems to align with the potential development of a BRICS gold-backed trade settlement currency, or even a broader gold-backed currency system.
I raise this point because the U.S. Federal Reserve is in a difficult position. It’s facing immense pressure from the market and Wall Street to reduce interest rates, but doing so could trigger a sharp decline in the value of the dollar.
The chart referenced above shows a 5-year daily performance of the US dollar index, with the dollar currently testing the 100 level—a key technical support since early 2023. If the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, it's highly likely the dollar will fall to 90, a level last seen in mid-2021. This decline would likely push gold prices toward $3,000 and silver toward $50.
A weakening dollar presents several challenges. First, it could accelerate the reduction in the dollar's role as a reserve asset for global central banks. Even more concerning for the US, a depreciating dollar coupled with lower interest rates would make it harder to attract foreign investment to finance additional Treasury debt, a challenge that is already becoming evident.
Additionally, the Fed is aware that inflation is running higher than what is reported by the CPI. Reducing rates will further drive real interest rates deeper into negative territory. While the official CPI suggests real rates are positive, using more comprehensive measures like the Shadow Stats Alternative CPI, real rates are currently at -3% using the 1990 CPI method and -6% based on the 1980 version. Negative real interest rates fuel price inflation, contributing to its persistence. Cutting rates further would likely intensify this inflationary pressure.
This is one reason gold has been reaching new all time highs almost daily since the Fed cut rates earlier this month. Silver, similarly, is on the verge of breaking into the high $33 range.
Precious metals markets are anticipating more than just optimistic Fed rhetoric about a strong economy and lower inflation; they are also predicting a potential return to money printing policies
New Zealand dollar higher despite pessimistic RBNZThe New Zealand dollar has moved higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5998, up 0.46% on the day.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report and the financial system received a favorable grade. That was it for the good news, as the report pointed to weak economic conditions that were hampering households and businesses.
The report noted that rising unemployment was causing “acute” financial difficulties for some households and that businesses had been impacted by weak demand and high cost pressures. This had caused households to reduce spending and businesses to freeze investing. Although inflation and interest rates had fallen, “significant further weakening in the economy remains a risk.”
The negative tone of the report could mean that the central bank will remain aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle. The RBNZ slashed rates by 50 basis points in October, lowering the cash rate to 4.75%. The final meeting of the year is on Nov. 27 and another 50-bp is likely, with a supersize 75-bp cut an outside possibility.
The RBNZ will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s third-quarter employment report. Employment change is expected to decline by 0.4% after a 0.4% gain in the second quarter. As well, the unemployment rate is projected to jump to 5%, from 4.6% in the second quarter. With inflation easing, the RBNZ is keeping a closer eye on the labor market and if the deterioration in employment is worse than expected in Q3, the calls for a 75-bp cut at the next meeting will get louder.
NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5987 and is testing resistance at 0.6002
There is support at 0.5957 and 0.5942
GBP/USD Strengthens Amid BoE Rate Cut Speculations and U.S. DataOn Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair exhibited a notable rise against its major counterparts, driven by a reassessment among traders regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE) for the remainder of the year. Market sentiment has shifted as analysts speculate that the BoE is poised to implement a rate reduction in one of its forthcoming meetings in November or December. According to recent insights from Reuters, traders are now factoring in an 80% likelihood that the BoE will lower its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, bringing them down to 4.75%.
This potential rate cut comes amidst a backdrop of economic considerations that have traders on alert, particularly with the release of key U.S. employment figures today. The market will focus on the USD Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month data, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. These indicators are critical and are expected to bring strong volatility to the markets. Current forecasts suggest a headwind for the USD, which could concurrently bolster the GBP against the euro and impact other pairs correlated with the DXY.
From a technical analysis perspective, GBP/USD has recently approached a significant demand area, which could serve as a springboard for upward movement. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reflects a bearish sentiment among retail traders, indicating a broader market consensus that may be shifting. In contrast, "smart money"—institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions, potentially signaling a bullish outlook.
Adding another layer of complexity are seasonal trends, which historically suggest that the GBP/USD pair could be on the brink of a new bullish rally. Traders are now posed with a critical question: is the current price level the optimal entry point for long positions, or should they await a potential dip to a lower demand zone before committing their capital?
The outcome of today’s economic data releases will likely play a pivotal role in determining the short-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair. Should the U.S. data disappoint, it may further sway sentiment toward the pound, while strong U.S. figures could dampen enthusiasm for the GBP, sparking further discussions around additional BoE rate cuts as the year draws to a close.
In conclusion, the interplay between central bank policies, economic data, and market sentiment is creating an intricate landscape for traders navigating the GBP/USD pair. With potential rate cuts on the horizon for the BoE and significant U.S. economic indicators set to be released, volatility is inevitable and positions are likely to adjust in response to these developments. As the trading day unfolds, all eyes will remain glued to the charts and economic reports, seeking clarity and direction in what promises to be a dynamic session.
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USD/CAD Analysis: Potential Retracement on Supply Area ContactThe USD/CAD has recently moved into a key supply area, prompting a watchful stance for a potential retracement. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, there’s a clear divergence between retail and institutional sentiment: while retail traders remain bullish on USD/CAD, institutional investors, or "smart money," have started building bearish positions, indicating a possible shift in momentum.
Seasonal Forecast and Technical View
Seasonal analysis suggests an increased probability of bullish price action in USD/CAD, but given our current position in a supply area, the focus is on a corrective retracement rather than a sustained reversal. This is especially relevant for short-term traders looking to capitalize on minor pullbacks.
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD’s proximity to supply suggests a temporary exhaustion of the recent uptrend, allowing for a pullback within a controlled risk-reward framework. A tight stop loss is recommended here to protect against potential reversals should bullish seasonal tendencies overpower short-term retracement forces.
Trading Strategy
With a setup offering a strong risk-to-reward ratio, traders might consider a short position on USD/CAD with a focus on the retracement rather than a deep decline. Monitoring economic releases and potential changes in institutional positioning will be essential in determining whether the supply area holds, as well as to gauge the sustainability of any bearish retracement.
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Will Trump win?🔍 Technical Analysis of STRUMP/USDT 📉
Key price levels marked in green 🟢 and red 🔴 show potential "Winner" and "Loser" zones:
1️⃣ Winner Zones (Resistance)
Break above 0.007312 could drive price higher 🚀
Stronger resistance at 0.010810 to confirm uptrend 🔼
Higher targets at 0.017108 and 0.025640 📈
2️⃣ Loser Zones (Support)
First support at 0.004441; a fall below signals potential downtrend 🚨
Further support at 0.003255 and 0.002162 🛑
📉 Channel & Trend Lines: Price is moving within a descending channel ➡️ Breakout from this could indicate a reversal 🔄
Trading Strategy:
📈 If price enters green zones and breaks resistances, consider buying positions.
📉 If price drops into red zones and fails to hold support, selling or avoiding buys might be wise.
FinNifty Support and Resistance Levels For 6th Nov 2024I’ve created a chart highlighting the key support and resistance levels for #FinNifty, designed to help traders make informed decisions.
These levels provide critical insights for understanding potential price movements, enabling traders to identify ideal entry and exit points.
Use these levels to gain a clearer perspective on Sensex trends and optimize your trades with greater confidence.
Remember, these levels serve as guidance, so always combine them with your own analysis and risk management.