Fundamental Analysis
Toast, Inc. (TOST) – Powering the Future of RestaurantsCompany Snapshot:
Toast NYSE:TOST is cementing its position as the go-to restaurant operating system, offering integrated solutions for payments, POS, inventory, and guest engagement—all tailored for food service businesses.
Key Catalysts:
Recurring Revenue Powerhouse 💸
ARR hit $1.7B in Q1 2025 — up 31% YoY
SaaS-driven model provides high visibility and stickiness
Expanding Client Base & Network Effects 📈
Serving ~140,000 locations, up 25% YoY
More locations = richer data + stronger product improvement + increased client lock-in
Enterprise-Grade Momentum 🏢🍔
Wins with Applebee’s (~1,500 locations) and Topgolf demonstrate Toast's scalability
Validates ability to support complex, high-volume operators
Operating Leverage in Motion ⚙️
As ARR scales, margins improve—positioning Toast for profitable growth over time
Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $37.00–$38.00
🚀 Target: $60.00–$62.00
📈 Growth Drivers: Enterprise adoption, recurring revenue, SaaS scale, network effects
💡 Toast is becoming the digital backbone of modern restaurants—serving up growth with every seat. #TOST #SaaS #RestaurantTech
GOLD → Retest support before news...FX:XAUUSD is in a correction phase amid a rising dollar. The price is heading towards the liquidity zone, which may support gold. Markets are awaiting PCE data...
Gold is back in the red: PCE inflation and tariff news will decide everything. On Friday morning, gold fell, retreating from its recent rebound from weekly lows of around $3245. The price is under pressure from the strengthening US dollar, which was supported by court rulings on Trump's tariffs, but the situation around tariffs remains tense on all sides...
The focus is on PCE inflation data. A weaker result could weaken the dollar and support gold. Traders remain cautious in anticipation of volatility.
Support levels: 3282, 3270, 3260
Resistance levels: 3325
A retest of 3282-3270 could end in a false breakdown, but only if the fundamental backdrop is against the dollar, which would only support the price of gold. The price is most likely to be stopped by trend support, but no one can rule out the fundamental factor of surprise...
As a target, during a bullish impulse, it is worth considering intermediate highs...
Best regards, R. Linda!
Wayfair | W | Long at $34.62Wayfair $NYSE:W. Recession fears are valid. But long-term, once this company becomes truly profitable, this will be a multi-bagger. I won't go on much about the fundamentals because there are too many economic unknowns ahead, but from a technical analysis perspective, the historical simple moving average lines/area is repeatedly converging with the price and leveling out. Often, this means a change in directional momentum. There are no more open price gaps below the current price on the daily chart. Thus, at $34.62, NYSE:W is in a personal buy zone.
Note: The price entering the teens in the near-term is a possibility.
Targets:
$40.00
$50.00
Gold to new Hight ?!!Gold is currently trading within a downward price channel, and as observed, it has bounced downwards from the upper boundary of the channel to settle around the demand zone at levels between 3265.00 and 3279.00.
We can also notice the potential formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern, as illustrated on the chart.
Therefore, I expect that if the price stabilizes above the mentioned demand zone, gold may rise again towards the supply zone between 3330.00 and 3345.00, at which point it would have broken out of the downward channel and also broken through the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern.
This could lead to potential targets at 3365.00, 3415.00, 3435.00, and 3500.00, and after that, we might even see a new peak for gold.
Good Luck
Solana Short-Term, Already Bearish After 97% UpWhat will happen in the long-term? Before we get there, let's focus on the short-term real quick because we want to know what is happening with the market now.
The market offers endless opportunities. We need to take advantage of those, our edge. We have an edge and this edge is being able to read the chart. With this edge, we can time the market and increase our trading success.
Solana grew by 97%. This is good. Of course, some pairs grew way more while others grew less. I did mentioned that when Bitcoin grows 50%, some Altcoins can grow 300%. This is exactly what happened, this is because of the size of the projects.
Some pairs grew more but these were smaller pairs. Some pairs grew less but these were bigger. That's just the nature of things.
This 97% bu-wave can be correlated to a 300-400% bullish-wave on other pairs. This means that after a growth wave comes a correction.
SOLUSDT—two main interesting levels. Won't mention them as they are shown on the chart.
Both are likely to hit but the first high is really high probability.
This is easy. Wait for support before buying again. I say "again" because you are supposed to sell at resistance, we are assuming you sold at resistance and are ready to buy at support.
Good? We are good.
The market will continue to move down and up while long-term it produces sustained growth.
We need to adapt fast and be smart, everything can change in a day.
Keep an eye on the news, we might be in front of some major event.
Political events can change everything and cannot be predicted.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
GOLD GC /GC GC1! XAU/USD: Arbitrage Oppertunity. Gold Futures (GC1!) – Breakdown Ahead? Arbitrage Opportunity Emerging
🔍 Daily Chart Analysis by Wavervanir International LLC
⚠️ Key Technical Observations:
Descending Triangle Breakdown Risk: Gold has rejected resistance near $3,350 multiple times. The lower highs and horizontal support suggest a descending triangle structure.
Projected Breakdown Zone: If $3,280 support fails, we could see a swift move toward $3,100 or even lower, near the $2,950 zone.
Lower Trendline Magnet: Price appears to be gravitating toward a key trendline formed from April’s breakout, which aligns with the $2,950–$3,000 confluence zone.
💱 Arbitrage Opportunity: GC1! vs XAU/USD vs /GC
There is growing dislocation among:
GC1! (Gold Futures – COMEX)
/GC (Front-Month Gold Futures)
XAU/USD (Spot Gold)
Watch for inefficiencies due to:
🔁 Hedging lag across timeframes (spot vs futures)
💰 Rate differential effects (carry cost, interest rates)
🌍 Currency mismatch in spot vs USD-settled futures
If the spot-futures basis widens unjustifiably, a short GC1! / long XAU/USD setup could exploit mean reversion. Advanced traders might also consider calendar spreads (/GC Jun vs Aug) if volatility compresses.
📊 Probabilistic Outlook:
Scenario Probability Commentary
Breakdown Toward $2,950 55% Technical structure favors bears unless macro shifts occur.
Bounce and Range Around $3,300 30% Compression before Fed/JOLTS/NFP may cause chop.
Breakout Above $3,375 15% Requires macro catalyst—like Fed rate cut, geopolitical shock, or weak USD
🧠 Macro Factors to Monitor:
FOMC & FedSpeak (June) – If rate cuts are delayed, gold could lose momentum.
Real Yields (10Y TIPS) – Rising real yields = bearish gold.
Geopolitical Tensions – Any flare-ups (Middle East, Taiwan) may flip sentiment fast.
China/BRICS Demand – Gold import/export data could signal accumulation or slowdown.
💡 We’re monitoring these inefficiencies for tactical plays under the Wavervanir macro-arbitrage lens. Stay updated for real-time trade ideas and DSS-based execution.
#Gold #GC1 #XAUUSD #FuturesTrading #MacroArbitrage #CommodityTrading #Wavervanir #RiskManagement
Gold rebounds in the US market and continues to be short!
📊Comment analysis
Gold rose yesterday under the stimulus of risk aversion, so gold did not continue to rise today, which means that the risk aversion sentiment of gold has been digested, and the 1-hour moving average of gold has also begun to turn downward and has not crossed upward, so the momentum of gold shorts has begun to increase, and gold rebounds and continues to be short. After gold surged, it has been under pressure at the 3310 line and cannot break through. Therefore, gold rebounds in the US market and continues to be short at highs under pressure at 3310.
💰Strategy Package
US trading operation ideas:
Gold 3304-3310 short, stop loss 3315, target 3280-3270-3260;
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | REGN | Long at $502.28Regeneron Pharmaceuticals NASDAQ:REGN stock dropped more than 17% today due to mixed Phase 3 trial results for itepekimab, a potential COPD drug. However, the company has an extensive drug pipeline, raked in over $14 billion last year, and is currently trading at a price-to-earnings of 15x. Debt-to-equity is 0.09x (extremely healthy) and earnings are forecast to grow 7.5% per year. While 2025 is anticipated to be its "worst" earnings year, the outlook through 2028 looks like steady growth in revenue and cash flow.
From a technical analysis view, the stocks entered my "crash" simple moving average zone today (currently between $466 and $502). More often than not, this area signals a bottom in the near-term, but it's not guaranteed. I wouldn't be surprised if the $450s-$460s get hit before a reversal if the market shifts negatively - which will be another entry for me. If it moves into my "major" crash zone in the $300s to close more gaps on the daily chart, I will be piling into this stock heavily (like I did with NYSE:UNH ) for a longer-term hold - of course, unless fundamentals change. I'm going to keep my target small unless there is a "major crash" and eye the closing of the nearest price gap on the daily. There is another between $883-$914...
Targets:
$590 (+17.5%)
/HE HE1! Macro Analysis: Lean Hogs Futures (HEM2025)🐖 Supply & Demand Dynamics
Production Trends: The USDA forecasts 2025 U.S. pork production at 28.5 billion pounds, a 2.7% increase from 2024, driven by higher slaughter levels and improved litter rates .
Export Outlook: Pork exports are projected to rise by 3% to 7.3 billion pounds in 2025, with strong demand from Mexico and South Korea offsetting declines in China and Japan .
Domestic Demand: U.S. pork consumption remains flat, averaging 50 lbs per person annually, while beef and chicken consumption have increased .
Oklahoma Farm Report
💰 Cost & Profitability Factors
Feed Costs: Feed costs are projected to decrease by 13% in 2025, reaching a feed cost index of 87, due to lower corn and soybean meal prices .
Producer Margins: Lower feed costs and stable hog prices are expected to improve producer margins, with average hog prices projected at $65 per cwt in 2025 .
🌍 Trade & Geopolitical Considerations
Tariffs and Trade Disputes: Ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China, have led to a 125% tariff on U.S. pork exports, causing producers like Smithfield Foods to pivot to other markets .
Export Diversification: U.S. pork producers are focusing on expanding exports to countries like Mexico, South Korea, and Canada to mitigate risks associated with trade disputes .
Oklahoma Farm Report
📈 Technical Analysis Recap
Breakout Confirmation: Price has broken above the descending trendline and reclaimed key Fibonacci levels (0.786 and 0.886), indicating bullish momentum.
Target Zones: Immediate target at 101.600 (1.618 Fib extension), with further targets at 101.875 (1.786), 101.975 (1.854), and 102.225 (2.0).
Support Level: Key support at 99.925; a break below this level could invalidate the bullish structure.
📊 Probability Assessment
Scenario Probability Rationale
Bullish Continuation 65% Supported by technical breakout, lower feed costs, and stable export demand.
Sideways Consolidation 25% Potential due to flat domestic demand and global trade uncertainties.
Bearish Reversal 10% Possible if key support at 99.925 fails or if export markets deteriorate further.
📌 Conclusion
The Lean Hogs Futures market exhibits a favorable setup for a bullish continuation, supported by technical indicators and macroeconomic factors such as lower feed costs and stable export demand. However, traders should remain vigilant of potential risks, including trade disputes and domestic demand stagnation.
PEPEUSDT Bullish Breakout Potential from Falling WedgeChart Pattern: Falling wedge (bullish) identified on the weekly chart.
Indicators:
RSI: Above 50 on daily, weekly, and monthly charts, indicating bullish momentum across timeframes with no immediate overbought conditions (RSI < 70).
EMA: Bullish on weekly and monthly charts (price above key EMAs).
Current Sentiment: Mixed but leaning bullish. X posts highlight optimism, with traders noting a bullish pennant, whale accumulation, and parallels to PEPE’s 2023 breakout structure. However, recent price dips suggest caution.
Key Narratives:
A dormant whale withdrawing 2.2T PEPE ($29M) from Binance on May 19 signals strong holder confidence.
Predictions of a 50-100% rally if the short term bullish pennant breaks, with a potential new ATH in June 2025.
Correlation with Bitcoin’s ATH proximity suggests PEPE could benefit from a broader crypto rally.
Conclusion:
PEPE is well-positioned for a potential bullish breakout in the near term, supported by the falling wedge, RSI > 50, and bullish EMAs across timeframes. Its meme coin nature ties its performance to community hype and broader crypto market trends, particularly Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Not financial advice.
CrowdStrike’s Chart Is Showing Caution Signs Ahead of EarningsCloud-based cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike Holdings NASDAQ:CRWD is set to release fiscal first-quarter results after the bell next Tuesday (June 3). Let’s check out the company’s technical and fundamental picture heading into the report.
CrowdStrike’s Fundamental Analysis
I'm not going to lie -- I’ve been long CRWD for a while and the stock has been very, very good to me. However, I see some reasons to be cautious moving forward.
At last check, the Street was looking for the firm to report $0.66 in fiscal-Q1 adjusted earnings per share on $1.11 billion of revenue. That would compare less than favorably to the $0.93 in adjusted EPS that CrowdStrike reported in the same period last year.
On the other hand, $1.11 billion in revenue would represent 20% year-over-year growth for the firm.
However, look at those two figures together and they appear to point to some margin compression. Additionally, 20% y/y sales growth -- while nothing to sneeze at -- would represent sequential deceleration of growth from the quarter just prior.
As a matter of fact, that would mark a fourth consecutive quarter of slower year-over-year growth from the prior 13-week period.
If that's not enough of a concern, all 32 sell-side analysts I can find that cover CrowdStrike have lowered their earnings estimates for the current quarter since it began.
CrowdStrike’s Technical Analysis
I charted CRWD for a different publication a month ago and pointed out what looked at the time like a “double bottom” pattern of bullish reversal.
That set-up worked like a charm, but I’m less confident in what the stock’s chart is showing us now:
True, readers will see still the double-bottom pattern of reversal that I mentioned, marked with two green boxes at left and showing a $392 pivot that stretched from late February into mid-April.
But at CrowdStrike’s recent $474.23 high, the stock was up 28% from that pivot. That’s often close to or even better than what one can expect to get out of a breakout.
And now, we see a so-called “rising-wedge” pattern of bearish reversal developing on the chart’s right side, as denoted with a red box above.
True, CRWD took back its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a red line above) as it climbed from the stock’s early April lows. The stock also retook also its 50-day SMA (marked with a blue line) and 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by a green line) during that period.
All of that means the stock should historically see some support on the way down, but we're still talking about a 13% drop before the 50-day line comes into play.
Meanwhile, CrowdStrike’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) remains strong, but its daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (the black and gold lines and blue bars at bottom) is sending mixed signals.
The MACD’s 9-day histogram (the blue bars) has been flipping back and forth in and out of negative territory for almost a month, while the 12-day EMA (the black line) has been wrestling with the 26-day EMA (gold line).
When the gold line is on top of the black line, that can be bearish, especially when the 9-day EMA slips below zero.
For the bulls to win out, it appears necessary for CrowdStrike to hold onto both the rising wedge’s bottom trendline and the stock’s 21-day EMA. And for the bears, those two points would serve as your downside pivots.
Should you take profits here? That's up to you.
But at the very least, the above chart seems to show that CrowdStrike investors should proceed with caution.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle was long CRWD at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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$270 Target by June 20thThe Cyber Security space is one I anticipate to gain a lot of traction this year due to current economic environment. NASDAQ:CRWD Is already trading at a premium even though the market has had a downturn recently. NASDAQ:ZS is the only ticker comparable to it in terms of fundamental strength. I see institutional buying ramping up as more good news come out over the coming weeks. I like June 20, 2025 EXP Calls at $270 Strike for a play. Ideally would want to exit one week prior to expiry as I see it blowing past this target.
Data is out. Gold is fluctuating.Information summary:
On Wednesday, US time, the Trade Court ordered an immediate halt to tariffs; the next day, the Federal Court of Appeals immediately resumed the policy. At the same time, the Trade Court was required to respond by June 5, and the government by June 9. Tariff policies are back and forth, and it is difficult to figure out. In other words, don't expect the US government to come up with any good news.
Today, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April was 2.6% in the previous value and 2.5% in the expected value. The expectation seen at the beginning of the week was 2.6%. Now the expectation is directly lowered. Is it to leave room for this announcement? If the increase is not higher than the previous value, it is not a significant increase, but it leaves room for interest rate cuts. For gold, the increase is not higher than the previous value, and the short position is limited.
This mediocre data can directly provide a basis for speculation on the current economic situation in the United States.
After yesterday's strong rise, with a very long lower shadow left on the middle track of the Bollinger Band, after stabilizing the middle track, the fast and slow lines further converged and flattened, indicating that the main funds are also hesitating. From this perspective, today's market may continue to fluctuate within the middle track.
At the same time, the closing line is also the most critical, which is around 3285-90 near the middle track.
Operation strategy:
Today's trading needs to pay attention to the cycle suppression position of 3315-3330 on the upper side, and the cycle support level of 3385-3380 on the lower side. This range can be maintained for scalping trading.
If the gold price breaks through strongly upward or downward, the new trend will be realized in a very short time, so traders need to make profits and stop losses in time.
Gold (4H) – Still in Accumulation
🔍 Price Action
– Failed to make a higher high after retracing into the 4H OTE zone around 3 265-3 285.
– Closed back at 3 325, right at resistance, signaling indecision.
🎯 Key Scenarios
🚀 Bullish Trigger : Hold above 3 325 → builds energy for a breakout up through the supply zone toward 3 365-3 380.
⏳ Further Pullback : Rejection at 3 325 → deeper retrace toward the OTE low (~3 260) before resuming the uptrend.
🌐 Macro Watch
– US inflation prints & Fed speakers this week.
– Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, which could keep safe-haven bids under gold.
✅ Takeaway
Gold is coiling-watch 3 325 as the pivot: failure there means a deeper shakeout; hold means a powerful leg higher !
EURGBP Bullish Structure Analysis – Channel Breakout + Target🧱 1. Market Structure Breakdown
EURGBP has been trading within a descending channel, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows, which indicates a short-term bearish trend. However, price action recently broke out above the upper boundary of this channel, suggesting a potential bullish reversal or trend correction.
This breakout marks a significant structural shift in market behavior.
🔵 Old Structure: Bearish, confined within the channel
🟢 New Structure: Bullish breakout above trendline + key resistance zone
🧩 Implication: Change in directional bias; potential for long opportunities
📍 2. Breakout Confirmation
The breakout was confirmed by:
A strong bullish impulse candle that closed above the descending trendline
Price sustaining above previous resistance (~0.8405)
Increase in bullish volume at the breakout point (if volume indicator is used)
This suggests that the breakout is genuine, not a false spike or liquidity grab.
🌀 3. Retest Phase – The Critical Zone
After breaking out, the market is now pulling back to retest the previous structure. This is a textbook price action move:
🔄 What’s Being Retested?
✅ Upper boundary of the descending channel
✅ Major horizontal support/resistance zone (~0.8405–0.8415)
✅ Broken trendline from previous lower highs
✅ QFL base (Quasimodo level that was swept)
✅ 50% Fibonacci retracement of the breakout move
This zone forms a multi-level confluence area, making it a strong support for potential long entries.
🔍 4. Key Technical Observations
Element Description
📐 Descending Channel Defined the prior bearish structure. Breakout invalidates this bias.
🧱 Trendline Retest Acts as dynamic support; price currently sitting on it.
🔃 SR Flip Zone Old resistance (~0.8405) turned into support—critical level.
📊 Fib 50% Retracement Provides technical alignment with potential buying interest.
📌 QFL/Order Block Zone Historical demand was swept and now being respected again.
🎯 5. Target Levels & Trade Plan
If the structure holds and the price responds bullishly from the current zone, the next levels of interest are:
✅ Primary Target – 0.8460
A clear supply/liquidity zone from previous structure highs
Also aligns with psychological round number and Fib extension
⚠️ Interim Target – 0.8430
Previous intra-channel resistance level
May serve as a short-term reaction point
❌ Invalidation Level
A clean break and close below 0.8390 would invalidate the breakout structure
This would reintroduce bearish pressure and signal a potential fakeout
🧠 6. Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
Entry: Around 0.8405–0.8415 on bullish confirmation (e.g., engulfing candle, pin bar, break of minor downtrend)
Stop-Loss: Below 0.8390 (beneath structure & invalidation point)
Take-Profit 1: 0.8430
Take-Profit 2: 0.8460
This offers a high R:R opportunity if managed with proper confirmation.
🧭 7. Risk Management & Considerations
Avoid entering prematurely without a bullish signal (e.g., pin bar, engulfing, RSI divergence).
Monitor macroeconomic news—especially from BoE or ECB—as they can disrupt technical setups.
Scaling into the position or using a split TP strategy can help protect profits.
✅ Conclusion
This EURGBP setup is a textbook case of market structure trading:
A well-defined channel breakout
Followed by a clean pullback to structure
With confluence across horizontal, diagonal, and Fibonacci levels
If price respects this zone, bulls could drive toward 0.8460, offering a solid opportunity for traders who understand structure-based setups.
📌 Always wait for confirmation—structure gives us context, but entries need price action signals to minimize risk.
Oil Price Stuck Near $60 Amid Geopolitical TensionsOil Price Stuck Near $60 Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Oil prices remain near $60, driven by global uncertainty. In the Middle East, tensions persist as Israel continues its military actions in Gaza. Meanwhile, the war between Ukraine and Russia continues despite U.S. efforts to mediate. Reports indicate that Russia has used North Korean weapons to intensify missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, raising concerns about Moscow’s reliance on Pyongyang.
Adding to the uncertainty, Trump’s tariff policies are creating instability for major economies. However, OPEC+ has pledged to increase oil production in July, which could push prices lower.
For now, $60 remains a strong support level. If the price breaks below this barrier, further declines could follow, as indicated on the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Safe Entry ZoneFull Screen 1D Chart to get the General Direction Of Unity Stock Movement.
You May lower Time to 1h to see Recent Dicretion Movement.
The Stock Has Significate clear Resistances And Decent Support levels.
For Support Levels:
the 1h Green and 4h Green Zone are most signifacte support level sepcially in worse case scienario we visit the 4H its strongest support level.
For Resistance levels:
the Red 1h Zone P.High(Previous High) Line and Red 4h Red Zone acts as most significate Resistance level.
At each Either Support and Resistance watch-out for Volume Selling/Buying with 15M TF.
Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
2- How to Buy Stock:
On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in.
Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
Japan core inflation hits two-year high, yen gains groundThe yen is higher on Friday. Iin the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.63, down 0.37% on the day.
Tokyo core CPI climbed to 3.6% y/y in May, up from 3.4% in April and above the market estimate of 3.5%. This marked the highest level since Jan. 2025. Tokyo core inflation is viewed as the leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food, was driven higher due to due higher non-fresh food prices, particularly rice which has soared 93% over the past year.
The jump in core CPI bolsters the case for a BoJ rate hike. The markets had anticipated a rate hike in October but today's strong inflation report could accelerate the timing of the next rate hike. At the same time, the uncertainty caused by US trade policy may force the BoJ to delay any rate hikes until the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy becomes clearer.
US President Trump's controversial tariffs have sent the financial markets on wild swings. Now, US courts are weighing in on whether Trump exceeded his authority when he imposed the tariffs. A trade court panel ruled this week that most of the tariffs were illegal but on Thursday, an appeals court granted the Trump administration a temporary pause, keeping the tariffs in effect.
The legal fight over the tariffs has just begun and could go all the way to the US Supreme Court. In the meantime, the legal challenge has blown a hole in Trump's tariff policy and is causing even more uncertainty in the financial markets.