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Fundamental Analysis

Warning: what can save us from a collapse: must read.⚠️This analysis isn’t purely chart-based, but in this macro environment, understanding the bigger picture is essential for predicting market movements. Hopefully, TradingView will allow this idea so that everyone can read it. What Can Save Us? Before looking for a solution, we must first acknowledge the problem—and then determine if and when a resolution is coming. 1. Trump’s Tariffs & Policies: A Market Shock Trump’s economic strategy marks a radical departure from the policies of the past 30 years. However, previous administrations weakened U.S. global influence, shifting power in favor of China. Since Trump's motto is "Make America Great Again", serious changes are inevitable. Until investors fully grasp these policies, uncertainty will persist. Let’s break down the key areas of impact and Trump’s expected responses: 2.Monetary Policy & The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve (FED) and Jerome Powell are not aligned with the White House. Powell is sticking to his monetary policy approach, but Trump needs 0% interest rates to implement his vision. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is fueling volatility. 🔴 Trump's Response: Expect a bombshell move—Trump will fire Jerome Powell and replace him with a Fed chairman who supports rate cuts to 0%. This will cause short-term chaos but ultimately fuel a massive market rally as: ✔️ The housing market recovers ✔️ Liquidity surges ✔️ Stocks skyrocket 3.U.S. Dependence on China & Russia for Raw Materials The U.S. imports essential resources from China and Russia, making it vulnerable. The BRICS alliance is strengthening, further threatening U.S. dominance. 🔴 Trump's Response: Trump has openly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its rich natural resources. He will take it by military force if necessary, positioning the U.S. as a raw material powerhouse on par with Russia. 4.Lost Allies: Canada, Mexico & South America Canada is aligning with Europe Mexico & South America are leaning towards BRICS 🔴 Trump's Response: To counter this: Canada will be pressured into rejoining a U.S.-led trade bloc—or face potential annexation. South American economies will be crippled by tariffs, forcing them to reintegrate under U.S. influence. 5.Geopolitical Conflicts: Middle East & Ukraine Iran is aligned with Russia & China Ukraine relies on Europe (France, UK, EU), rather than the U.S. The U.S. is not benefiting from these wars 🔴 Trump's Response: If Zelensky continues to align with Europe, Trump may order a full-scale U.S. bombing of Ukraine, flatten Kyiv, eliminate Zelensky live on TikTok, and then split Ukraine with Russia. This move would: ✔️ Strengthen U.S.-Russia relations ✔️ Secure a deal on Greenland ✔️ Humble Europe 6.Conclusion: A Global Power Shift Expect a period of chaos and fear. However, what investors must understand is that Trump is 100% serious about these moves—and he will execute them regardless of global opinion. If Trump’s strategy works: ✅ The U.S. will regain dominance ✅ Markets will rally hard ✅ Confidence in the U.S. economy will be restored If Trump fails: 🚨 A prolonged economic downturn (15-20 years of stagflation) 🚨 U.S. & Europe suffer major losses 🚨 Best move? Relocate to Asia or the Middle East before the crash. So, even if Trump’s policies seem insane, the best-case scenario is that he succeeds. 💡 DYOR (Do Your Own Research) #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump #MAGA #Geopolitics #StockMarket #SPX500 #Trading #Investing #Economy #FederalReserve #RateCuts
FX:SPX500
by CryptoNikkoid
6
'Safe Haven' Strength going to continue? YES - SELL GBPJPYAll the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Simply-Forex
2
Gold Analysis March 4Fundamental Analysis Persistent concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs could act as a catalyst for the safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, risk-off sentiment, coupled with expectations that a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle early, has caused a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. This, in turn, has pushed the US dollar (USD) to its lowest level since October 2024 and helped limit the downside in non-yielding gold. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a sharp sell-off to confirm that XAU/USD has topped out. Technical Analysis Today’s trading range is likely to see a fairly high probability of a drop. If it breaks 3116, gold will find its way back to 3081. In case gold breaks the downward structure as analyzed in the upward direction, pay attention to the SELL zone around 3148-3150. Wishing everyone a successful trading day.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
CADJPY → Consolidation before the news. DowntrendFX:CADJPY continues to forge a downtrend, but within the current movement a symmetrical triangle of accumulative nature is forming The currency pair may continue its decline due to the strengthening of the Japanese Yen, while the Canadian is consolidating in a narrow range. The situation may be accelerated by today's news, namely Trump's speech, where he may announce new tariff measures. Technically, the price is correcting after the false break of 103.56, being below the previously broken upside support. Price is testing key resistance at 104.90, and against 0.5 Fibo is forming a false breakout. A consolidation below 104.69, a break of 104.525 could trigger further decline. Resistance levels: 104.900, 105.36, 105.74 Support levels: 104.525, 103.56 There are important news ahead, high volatility is possible, especially at the moment of Trump's speech, which may set a medium-term tone in the market. The currency pair is in consolidation on the background of the downtrend and the priority is to expect a continuation of the fall Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
Eur/Usd 4H Market Update – 03 Apr 2025Following recent tariff-related developments in the US, broad dollar softness contributed to EUR/USD moving above the 1.095 level — a zone that had held since November 2024. From a technical perspective, a few scenarios may unfold depending on broader market sentiment and price action: • The pair may approach the 1.12 region, where previous price action showed signs of slowing momentum, potentially leading to a move back toward 1.10. • If current dollar softness persists, a sustained break above 1.12 could open the path toward the 1.145 area. • Alternatively, the pair could revisit the 1.09 region, which has acted as a significant level in the past, before any renewed upward movement occurs. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
Silver Breakdown: Rising Wedge Bearish Move Towards Target1. Chart Overview This 4-hour (H4) chart of Silver (XAG/USD) shows a clear Rising Wedge Pattern, a bearish technical formation. The price action recently broke below the lower support trendline, confirming a downside move. Several key levels, indicators, and trading strategies can be derived from this setup. 2. Identified Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal) A Rising Wedge is a pattern that forms when price consolidates between two upward-sloping trendlines, with the support line rising at a steeper angle than the resistance line. This pattern is considered bearish because it signals weakening buying pressure and an impending breakdown. Uptrend Formation: The price had been moving within a wedge, forming higher highs and higher lows. Volume Considerations: A wedge breakout is often accompanied by increasing volume, further confirming the trend shift. Breakout Confirmation: The price has decisively broken below the lower boundary of the wedge, indicating that sellers are taking control. 3. Key Technical Levels & Trading Strategy Resistance Level (Rejection Zone) – $34.00 - $34.50 The upper boundary of the rising wedge acted as strong resistance. Multiple price rejections confirm sellers' dominance in this area. Any future retest of this level may provide a new opportunity for short entries. Support Level (Broken & Retested) – $32.50 - $32.80 This zone previously acted as strong support, preventing price from falling lower. Now that price has broken this support level, it could act as resistance if a retest occurs. A confirmed rejection here will further validate the bearish outlook. Stop Loss Placement – $34.16 A logical stop-loss placement is slightly above the previous swing high and resistance area. If price moves above this level, it would indicate that the breakdown has failed, invalidating the bearish setup. Bearish Target – $30.76 (Measured Move Projection) This level is derived from the height of the rising wedge pattern projected downward. The area around $30.76 aligns with a previous support zone, making it a reasonable target for the current breakdown. 4. Price Action & Future Expectations Current Market Sentiment: Bearish The break below the wedge confirms a bearish sentiment. A slight retracement to the previous support (now resistance) around $32.80 - $33.00 is possible before further downside. If selling pressure remains strong, Silver is likely to reach the $30.76 target in the coming sessions. Alternative Scenario: Bullish Recovery If the price moves back above $34.16, the bearish outlook is invalidated. A sustained move above this level could indicate a false breakdown and may push Silver toward new highs. 5. Trading Plan Based on This Setup 🔹 Entry Strategy: Look for a retest of the broken support zone ($32.80 - $33.00) to enter short positions. A rejection from this level with bearish confirmation (e.g., a bearish engulfing candle) strengthens the trade setup. 🔹 Stop Loss: Placed above the wedge resistance at $34.16 to protect against false breakouts. 🔹 Take Profit Targets: First Target: $31.50 (intermediate support level) Final Target: $30.76 (measured move projection of the wedge) 6. Conclusion This Rising Wedge Breakdown on Silver’s H4 chart presents a strong bearish trading opportunity with a well-defined risk-reward ratio. The break below key support signals continued downside, with $30.76 as the next major target. However, traders should monitor any retest of the broken support zone to confirm further selling momentum before entering new positions.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) Reports Q2 Financial Fiscal ResulPenguin Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PENG ) today reported financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 and announced the planned retirement of Chief Operating Officer (“COO”) and President of Integrated Memory Jack Pacheco. Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Highlights Net sales of $366 million, up 28.3% versus the year-ago quarter GAAP gross margin of 28.6%, down 20 basis points versus the year-ago quarter Non-GAAP gross margin of 30.8%, down 70 basis points versus the year-ago quarter GAAP diluted EPS of $0.09 versus $(0.26) in the year-ago quarter Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.52 versus $0.27 in the year-ago quarter “We are pleased with the progress we are making in fiscal year 2025,” said Mark Adams, Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) of Penguin Solutions. “Our results reinforce our capabilities in managing the complexity of AI for our valued customers. Given our strong start to the fiscal year, we are raising the midpoint of our revenue outlook for the full year.” Despite the commendable results, shares of NASDAQ:PENG are down 5% today albeit the general crypto and stock market landscape are facing extreme selling pressures amidst Donald Trump's Tariffs war with over $1.65 trillion wiped out from US stock market at open today. The support point has already being broken with eyes set on the 1-month low as the support should selling pressure increased as there is more space for a cool off as hinted by the RSI at 40. Analyst Forecast According to 8 analysts, the average rating for PENG stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price forecast is $24.75, which is an increase of 40.87% from the latest price.
NASDAQ:PENGLong
by DEXWireNews
Gold has been moving big recently, don’t hold it blindly!What is coming has come, more than 100 US dollars a day, the decline is always faster than the rise, and more fierce, after breaking the 3100 watershed, it accelerated downward, the current minimum is 3054, the key position below is 3000/3040, pay attention to the plunge and the card position can also participate in the long, but must be patient to wait for the position. After the big drop, the stage high point appears, and the follow-up is that both long and short can participate. The first plunge only establishes the high point position, and it is not so fast to turn short. It will fluctuate for a period of time. Generally, major news is an opportunity. The evening news detonates the market, and the main force often uses the news to pull up shipments. If the rebound touches 3110-3120, short it.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
Trump's Tariff War! GOLD nears targetIn Asian trading on Thursday (April 3), the market's risk-off sentiment increased, boosted by Trump's wide-ranging tariff actions. Spot gold prices jumped to $3,167.77/ounce in early trading, up nearly $37 in a day and hitting a new record high. OANDA:XAUUSD Continues to Rise as Trump Launches Tariff Campaign The US Dollar fell sharply in Asian trading on Thursday, contributing to the boost in gold prices. The US Dollar Index is currently at around 103.050, down more than 60 points on the day. On April 2, local time, the White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump declared a national emergency on the same day to enhance US competitiveness, protect US sovereignty, and strengthen US national and economic security. Trump declared this as America's "declaration of economic independence". The statement said that Trump will impose a 10% "base tariff" on all countries, effective from 0:01 a.m. Eastern time on April 5. In addition, Trump will impose higher, personalized "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with the largest US trade deficits, effective from 0:01 a.m. Eastern time on April 9. All other countries will continue to adhere to the original base tariff of 10%. Gold prices hit a new record above $3,160 an ounce after US President Donald Trump announced comprehensive “reciprocal” tariffs, imposing a minimum 10% tax on imported goods, raising concerns that this could trigger a global economic recession. Investors have flocked to gold as concerns about the health of the global economy have grown. Gold prices have risen 20% this year after a strong rally in 2024, driven largely by central bank buying and strong demand in Asia. AND IT WILL KEEP RISE AS FUNDAMENTAL SUPPORT IS ABSOLUTELY IN PLACE! Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after approaching the target level of attention to readers in yesterday's publication at the price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, there are temporary signs of cooling down, mainly this is considered a correction state after a shock increase. In terms of trends, gold is currently being noticed by the short-term price channel, this is an uptrend in which the medium-term trend at the price channel is also an uptrend channel, in addition, EMA21 is also the current main support. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in an uptrend channel, which shows that gold is also in an uptrend in terms of momentum, and a signal for a possible downward correction in terms of momentum can only occur when the RSI folds downwards below 80. As long as gold remains in the price channel, it is still in an uptrend in the short term, and the notable positions for the day will be listed as follows. Support: 3,135 – 3,106 – 3,100 USD Resistance: 3,172 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3171 - 3169⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3175 →Take Profit 1 3163 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3157 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3098 - 3100⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3094 →Take Profit 1 3106 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3112
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Trade Idea : US30 Short ( MARKET )Technical Analysis Overview: 1. Daily Chart: • The index is in a clear downtrend, with price action breaking below the moving average. • MACD is deeply negative, with a bearish divergence and downward momentum. • RSI at 37.28, indicating approaching oversold territory, but not yet reversing. 2. 15-Minute Chart: • Strong downward momentum with sharp drop visible. • MACD is heavily negative, confirming bearish momentum. • RSI is at 32.71, indicating oversold conditions, but no clear sign of reversal yet. 3. 3-Minute Chart: • Sharp sell-off followed by consolidation. • MACD is negative but appears to be flattening, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or continued consolidation before the next move. • RSI at 44.38, showing mild recovery from previous lows but still below the midpoint (50). Trade Idea: • Position: Short (Sell) • Entry Level: 41,250 (near minor resistance or after a weak bullish retracement) • Stop Loss (SL): 41,800 (Above recent consolidation zone or resistance) • Take Profit (TP): 40,400 (Previous support area with good potential for price to test) FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Short
by KeN-WeNzEl
EUR/USD Analysis Ascending Triangle Breakout – Bullish TargetOverview of the Chart: The chart represents the EUR/USD (Euro to U.S. Dollar) pair on a 1-hour timeframe, showcasing a bullish ascending triangle breakout. The pattern indicates an upward continuation in the trend after a period of consolidation. This analysis will break down the key elements of the chart, the technical structure, and the potential trading strategy. 1. Market Structure & Key Zones A. Market Curve Area (Early Trend Development) The price started with a strong bullish trend leading up to the formation of the triangle. The curved trendline suggests a gradual increase in buying pressure, indicating that the market was preparing for a larger breakout. B. Resistance and Support Levels Resistance Level (Red Arrow & Blue Box): This level acted as a price ceiling where sellers previously dominated. The market attempted multiple times to break this resistance before successfully breaching it. Support Level (Green Arrow & Yellow Zone): The price consistently found buyers at this level, reinforcing a higher low structure. The rising support line within the triangle indicated strong accumulation by buyers. 2. Chart Pattern: Ascending Triangle Formation The price action formed an ascending triangle, which is a well-known bullish continuation pattern. The higher lows (trendline support) indicated buyers were gaining control, gradually pushing the price toward the resistance. Eventually, the resistance was broken with strong bullish momentum, confirming a valid breakout. 3. Breakout Confirmation & Retest The breakout above the resistance level came with high volume, indicating strong market participation. After the breakout, a minor pullback (retest) occurred, confirming previous resistance as new support. The price surged upward after the retest, validating the bullish trade setup. 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management A. Entry Strategy A trader would enter a buy (long) position after confirming the breakout. Entry Trigger: Either at breakout (high-risk, early entry) Or after a successful retest (safer entry) B. Stop Loss Placement A stop loss is placed below the previous support level at 1.07276, ensuring risk is limited in case of a false breakout. C. Target Projection The target price is measured using the height of the triangle added to the breakout level. Based on this calculation, the projected target is around 1.12838. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan The EUR/USD pair has executed a clean ascending triangle breakout, signaling further bullish movement. The trading plan suggests: ✅ Entry: Buy after breakout confirmation or retest. ✅ Stop Loss: Placed below 1.07276 for risk management. ✅ Take Profit: Targeting 1.12838, based on the pattern’s height projection. This setup presents a high-probability long opportunity in a trending market, with proper risk management to protect against potential reversals.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
#SAND #SANDUSDT #SANDBOX #LONG #SWING #AMD #Eddy#SAND #SANDUSDT #SANDBOX #LONG #SWING #AMD #Eddy SANDUSDT.P SWING Long AMD Setup Important areas of the upper time frame for scalping are identified and named. This setup is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. (( AMD SETUP )) Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this Swing Setup to enter the trade. Don't forget risk and capital management. The entry point, take profit point, and stop loss point are indicated on the chart along with their amounts. The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for not observing your risk and capital management. By scratching the price and time bar, you can see the big picture and targets. Note: The price can go much higher than the second target, and there is a possibility of a 50%-100% pump on this currency. By observing risk and capital management, obtaining the necessary approvals, and saving profits in the targets, you can keep it for the pump. Be successful and profitable.
Long
by Eddy_Trade_