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XAUUSD H4 Outlook – August 4, 2025Structure is bullish — but supply is layered. Precision now matters more than bias. — Gold is trading at 3362, sitting right inside the heart of a key structural zone. After a strong breakout from 3285–3260, price reclaimed imbalance, broke internal structure, and powered higher into premium. The trend is bullish — but we’ve just stepped into stacked supply. Let’s break down every zone that matters now, from top to bottom: 🟥 3360–3375 – Valid H4 Supply Zone This is the first active supply block — the origin of the last bearish leg. It holds a clean OB + imbalance and is currently being tested for mitigation. We're inside it right now. This zone is critical: → If price breaks and holds above it, continuation is likely → If we reject here, it confirms sellers are defending their level 🟥 3385–3398 – Internal Supply Trap A secondary supply zone built from previous order flow. If bulls push through 3375 without rejection, this is the next area to watch for weakness. This zone often creates fake breakouts, especially when momentum slows. RSI is already showing signs of exhaustion approaching this level. 🟥 3420–3440 – HTF Supply Trap This is the top — the last unmitigated supply on the weekly. It's not in play yet, but if bulls break above 3398 decisively, this is where the bigger trap could form. Any long into this zone must be backed by strong structure and continuation candles — otherwise, it’s a liquidation magnet. 🟫 3322–3310 – Flip Reentry Zone If we reject from current supply, this is the first high-probability reentry for bulls. It’s where the last CHoCH confirmed, and it aligns with EMA confluence and minor imbalance. Buy setups from here must be confirmed on M15/M30 — no blind longs. 🟦 3285–3260 – Breaker Demand Base The true origin of the bullish move. This zone caused the structural flip — clean OB, FVG stack, and liquidity sweep. If price returns here, it becomes a must-hold for bullish continuation. One of the best sniper zones for longs. 🟦 3222–3205 – Final Demand Layer Deep structure zone holding imbalance + previous HL base. Only comes into play if 3260 fails. A break below this would shift bias to neutral or bearish on H4. 🎯 Bias Summary ✔️ H4 bias = bullish ✔️ Price is inside 3360–3375 supply ✔️ EMA 5/21/50 aligned, but RSI is elevated ⚠️ This is not a breakout — it’s a test zone 🔁 Execution Plan 📍 Rejection from 3360–3375 → sell scalp toward 3322 📍 Clean break of 3375 → watch for next short at 3385–3398 📍 Failure of 3398 → HTF draw toward 3430–3439 📍 Pullback toward 3322–3310 → potential long zone 📍 Clean drop to 3285 → high-RR buy area 📍 Break below 3260 → only valid demand left is 3222 — This is not the time to chase. It’s the time to stalk. You’re in premium. Supply is active. Let structure decide — you just execute with clarity. — Which zone are you watching for your next move? Comment your bias below 👇🏼 Smash the ❤️ if this brought clarity, and follow GoldFxMinds to trade with precision every day. Disclosure: Chart based on Trade Nation feed (TradingView).
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD August 2025 Monthly OutlookWelcome to August — and welcome to the top of the macro ladder. Gold is not just rising. It’s rewriting structure. 🔸 Macro & Fundamentals Gold opens August with a fresh impulsive breakout above $3360, fuelled by a weaker USD, rising global risk sentiment, and continued speculative positioning from institutional buyers. The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and shifting Federal Reserve expectations create the perfect climate for volatility. All eyes are now on the premium structure top — but will gold expand beyond it or retrace to refill? 🔸 Monthly Trend & Bias (HTF Overview) 🔹 Structure: Clean bullish BOS, continuation leg in progress 🔹 Last CHoCH: April 2023 → Confirmed full trend shift bullish 🔹 Current Monthly Candle: Explosive push into supply with top wick rejection beginning to show 🔹 Bias: Still bullish but in extreme premium — watch for cooling/rebalancing 🔸 EMA Structure | EMA Type | Status | Signal | | ----------- | -------------- | ------------------------------------- | | EMA 5 / 21 | Strong Bullish | Dynamic expansion, steep angle upward | EMA 50 | Below | Clean breakout from range | EMA 100/200 | Far below | Long-term uptrend deeply intact 🔸 Key HTF Levels (Wick-to-Wick Mapping) Zone Type Price Range Confluences 🔴 Premium Supply 3350 – 3439 Monthly FVG + Wick exhaustion + RSI 80+ 🔵 Bullish Imbalance 3180 – 3270 Monthly FVG + old BOS + EMA5 baseline 🔵 Mid-Level Support 2920 – 3000 Monthly OB + FVG + structure base 🔵 Deep Demand 2670 – 2780 HTF equilibrium zone + RSI support ✅ The current candle has pierced into the final wick supply, but with clear signs of loss in momentum. ⚠️ If 3439 breaks cleanly, next expansion zone opens toward 3505 → 3610 (Fibonacci projection). Otherwise, expect cooling to 3270–3180 first. 🔸 Fibonacci Context 🔻 Swing Low: 1810 🔺 Swing High: 3439 🎯 Current price ($3363) sits just below the 100% Fibonacci projection, with the 1.272 and 1.618 extensions at 3610 and 3740. This confirms we are in a macro premium, and any long positions from here forward must be built only on strong LTF confirmation or clean pullbacks into value. 🔸 August Scenarios 🟢 Scenario 1 – Breakout + Price Discovery If bulls break 3439 with strong volume and close: New leg toward 3505 → 3610 opens Watch for LTF continuation on H4–D1 with bullish OB reentry Only valid if 3350 holds as new support 🔻 Scenario 2 – Rejection + Healthy Pullback If price holds below 3439 and monthly wick exhausts: Clean retracement toward 3270 → 3180 expected EMA5/21 rebalancing will support bullish structure Deeper rejection could retest 3070 zone if volatility spikes 🔸 Conclusion & Action Plan We open August fully inside the last monthly supply zone. Trend is still bullish, but RSI, FVGs, and EMA distance warn us: this is not the time to chase — it’s time to wait for structure to speak. 📌 Key pivot = 3439. Above it → Expansion. Below it → Retracement. Let August unfold — but stay sharp. The next big move will be born from this compression. — What’s your take — are we just getting started or about to cool off? Drop your thoughts, chart it out, and stay ready for what August brings. ⚔️ — ❤️ Like if you enjoy clean, actionable updates🚀🚀🚀 🔁 Share with traders who love structure over noise With clarity, confidence, and control, GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD Daily Outlook – August 4, 2025We’re not in breakout. We’re deep in premium — and supply is stacked. — Gold is now trading at 3362, sitting right inside the first valid daily supply zone — the same block between 3355 and 3375 that caused the last rejection. The bullish rally from 3272 was clean: liquidity sweep, CHoCH, imbalance filled, HL confirmed. Bulls did their job. Now they’re walking straight into pressure. Above this zone, things don’t get easier — they get trickier. Just a bit higher, we have an internal supply trap between 3398 and 3412. It’s a reaction zone built from imbalance and inducement — not strong enough to hold a reversal on its own, but perfect to fake out breakout buyers. If price pushes through 3375 and enters this pocket, snipers should be watching carefully for early signs of weakness. And finally, at the top of the current structure sits the HTF supply trap at 3430–3439 — the last weekly wick, the macro reversal zone. That level is sacred. If price makes it there, either we’ll see full-blown expansion… or a violent reversal born from overconfidence. So what do we do now? We wait. If price starts to reject from this 3355–3375 supply with bearish intent, we target the flip reentry zone at 3318–3328 — the previous CHoCH break and dynamic EMA cluster. That’s your first intraday long trigger if bulls want to come back strong. If that breaks, next is the demand base at 3287–3267, the origin of this entire bullish move. Below that? Imbalance support near 3225 — the final line before structure shifts. — 🟥 Valid Supply Zone → 3355–3375 🟥 Internal Supply Trap → 3398–3412 🟥 HTF Supply Trap → 3430–3439 🟫 Flip Reentry Zone → 3318–3328 🟦 Demand Base → 3287–3267 🟦 Imbalance Support → 3225–3205 — This isn’t a breakout. It’s a build-up inside premium. The smartest move today might be no move — until structure speaks. — Are you watching for the rejection? Or the breakout trap? Let us know your bias below 👇🏼 Tap that ❤️ if this gave clarity, and follow GoldFxMinds to stay ahead of every key level — no noise, just structure. — With sniper calm and strategic clarity, GoldFxMinds 💙 Disclosure: Analysis based on Trade Nation TradingView chart feed.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Macro View on EUR/USDMonetary Policy Divergence The Federal Reserve maintained its target federal funds rate at 4.25 – 4.50 percent, citing a resilient labour market and persistent inflationary pressures (Federal Reserve, 2025). By contrast, the European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate stands at 2.00 percent, reflecting its earlier tightening cycle and more cautious approach to rate cuts (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2025). Inflation Differential U.S. headline CPI rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in June 2025, with core CPI at 2.9 percent (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025). Euro-area inflation was 2.0 percent in June, broadly in line with the ECB’s target (Eurostat, 2025). Yield Spread The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around 4.38 percent, versus roughly 2.4 percent on the bund, underpinning dollar strength (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2025). Growth Outlook The U.S. economy continues to outperform, supported by robust consumption and a tight labour market. Advanced-economy growth is projected at 1.4 percent in 2025, with the euro-area likely trailing, given headwinds from energy costs and subdued investment (International Monetary Fund, 2025). Technical Structure Downtrend in Place: Recent price action shows a break of the 20-day MA and loss of structure below 1.1700. Supply Zone near 1.1750–1.1800 offers resistance. Demand Zones at 1.1100–1.1200 and 1.0750–1.0850 coincide with long-term trendline support (see chart). Outlook & Scenarios Near-Term Bearish: Continued USD strength and fading risk appetite may drive EUR/USD toward the 1.1100 demand zone. Medium-Term Range: If ECB signals a dovish pivot and U.S. data disappoints, expect a bounce into 1.1200–1.1400. Key Pivot: A sustained break below 1.0750 would open targets toward 1.0200, the “discount” zone from late 2024. References European Central Bank. (2025, August 1). ECB deposit facility rate for euro area (ECBDFR) . FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Eurostat. (2025, June). Inflation in the euro area . ec.europa.eu Federal Reserve. (2025, July 30). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. www.federalreserve.gov Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2025, July 30). Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity . FRED. International Monetary Fund. (2025, July). World Economic Outlook Update: July 2025. www.imf.org U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025, July). Consumer Price Index Summary – June 2025. www.bls.gov
Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
EURJPY Poised to test the top after the BOJ Rate DecisionEURJPY Poised to test the top after the BOJ Rate Decision EURJPY broke out of a descending type of channel pattern or something similar. The last two candles confirmed the bullish movement in a clear way and the odds are that EURJPY may rise further during the coming hours. However this movement is also supported by BOJ Interst Rate decision. BOJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected and they didn't change anything at all in their comments. News - reported by forexlive The Japanese Yen weakened across the board throughout BoJ Governor Ueda press conference. He sounded like someone who's not in a rush to hike rates at all. The two key lines were "monetary tightening effectively works on demand-driven inflation, but current inflation is largely supply-driven" and "current FX rate not diverging far from our assumptions". He's basically saying that the current inflation is likely to be a one-off event and we all know how much weight they place on sustained inflation to durably hit their 2% target. And the comment about FX suggests that the depreciation in the JPY does not concern them at all, which gives the market the green light for further depreciation (all else being equal). You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KlejdiCuni
11
DOGEUSDT Analysis : Trendline Decision & Dual Directional Point📌 Market Context & Current Setup: DOGEUSDT has been trading within a well-defined descending channel, respecting a strong trendline resistance, which has acted as a bearish ceiling for several sessions. The price action has been heavily influenced by supply zones formed after sharp impulsive drops, creating multiple QFL (Quick Flip Levels) — key to spotting structural bottoms and high-probability reversal zones. Currently, the price is hovering near a critical decision point, where two key scenarios may play out: A breakout and bullish reversal toward major resistance A dip into a deep demand zone for final accumulation before reversal Your plan reflects MMC (Market-Mind-Confirmation) methodology, preparing for either scenario with clear levels, logic, and psychology in place. 📐 Technical Breakdown: 🔻 1. Trendline Confirmation (Bearish Control): The price has respected the downtrend line multiple times, confirming strong bearish momentum. No candle body has closed decisively above it, showing sellers still have control. However, price is now consolidating near this line, indicating a potential weakening of selling pressure — a classic sign of upcoming trend exhaustion. 🟩 2. Support Zones – Structural Layers: 📍 Minor Zone (S/R Flip – ~$0.215–0.220): This zone is a previous support turned resistance. It’s the first checkpoint the price needs to reclaim to confirm a breakout. A successful flip from resistance back to support would add strong bullish confidence. 🟩 Reversal Zone (~$0.185–0.190): Marked on your chart as a "Reversal Area" — likely derived from QFL methodology. Price has historically bounced from this area, indicating buyers are willing to step in aggressively. This zone aligns with smart money demand accumulation and could serve as a final liquidity sweep zone before a major reversal. 📍 Major Resistance Zone (~$0.250–0.260): The next major objective once a trendline break is confirmed. Also aligns with previous highs and volume nodes — a solid target for bullish trades. 🔄 Scenario-Based Strategy: 📈 Scenario 1 – Breakout Toward Major Resistance: Price breaks above the descending trendline and reclaims the minor S/R zone. This would confirm a bullish structure shift, validating that sellers are losing strength. After reclaiming ~$0.215, the path toward $0.240–0.260 opens up. Retests or flag breakouts within this range can be re-entry points for trend traders. 📉 Scenario 2 – Deeper Retest and Accumulation: If the price fails to break out and dips further, the reversal demand area (~$0.185) becomes critical. This is where buying pressure is expected to return, and as labeled in your chart: 👉 “If it goes down, we will double the supply” This suggests an averaging-down or pyramiding strategy based on strong structural confidence. This technique is valid only when the area is backed by solid confluence (trend exhaustion, demand, and past bounces). 🧠 MMC Strategy (Market – Mind – Confirmation): Market: Bearish short-term trend, but price is approaching oversold territory near structural demand. Mind: You’re prepared for both outcomes – breakout or dip. Emotion is out of the plan. Confirmation: You wait for signs — break and retest of trendline, bullish engulfing candles, or wick rejections from demand. This mental clarity helps maintain trading discipline and keeps emotional bias out of decision-making. ⚙️ Execution Plan: Component Scenario 1 (Breakout) Scenario 2 (Deep Buy Zone) Entry Signal Break & close above trendline + minor SR reclaim Bullish reversal candle within demand zone Stop Loss Below trendline + S/R flip (~0.210) Below demand zone (~0.182) Target 1 $0.235 $0.235 Target 2 $0.255–$0.260 $0.255–$0.260 Risk Level Medium Higher R:R potential Strategy Notes Aggressive on confirmation only Add to position on wick traps 🧠 Trader Psychology Tips: Be patient — confirmation beats prediction. Set alerts at key levels to avoid emotional entries. Scaling into trades based on zone reactions builds flexibility and control. "Double the supply" approach must be paired with strict invalidation levels. ✅ Summary: DOGE is trading within a descending wedge. Key decision zones are marked clearly (trendline, S/R flip, reversal demand). Breakout could lead to a quick 15–25% upside. Reversal zone offers great R:R with accumulation opportunity. Strategy is well-aligned with disciplined execution and trader psychology.
by GoldMasterTrades
TONUSDT Bullish Structure Continuation – Minor Pullback Leg Up🧾 1. Overview of the Chart Setup: The current TONUSDT (Toncoin/USDT) 2-hour chart exhibits a strong bullish market structure, characterized by a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This confirms bullish momentum and suggests that the market is in a well-established uptrend. The key highlight here is the "Blue Ray – Trend Continuation Pattern", which signals sustained bullish pressure following a clean breakout. This breakout was preceded by a consolidation phase, indicating accumulation by smart money before the expansion move. 🔍 2. Technical Structure and Pattern Breakdown: 🔵 Blue Ray – Trend Continuation Pattern: This diagonal support trendline captured the initial breakout after the market bottomed near July 29–30. Price respected this ascending line multiple times before accelerating, confirming bullish control. Once the price broke above the previous swing high, it completed the pattern and triggered a momentum-driven rally. 🔲 Structural Zones – Major and Minor: Minor Support Zone (~3.50 USDT): Currently acting as short-term demand. Price is showing early signs of rejection here, suggesting bulls may reload for a second impulsive move. If this zone holds, we expect a new higher high to form, potentially targeting 3.80–4.00+ USDT. Major Support Zone (~3.20–3.25 USDT): Acts as long-term bullish defense. In case of deeper retracement or shakeout, this is the key level to watch for possible trend continuation and re-entry. 📈 3. Structural Analysis and Price Projection: The projected path on the chart shows a classic price action structure: Impulse Correction (toward minor support) Next Impulse (break of recent high) Higher low (continuation within trend channel) Potential final push toward the 3.90–4.00 range This type of Elliott Wave-inspired behavior suggests we're in wave 3 or 5 of a bullish sequence, with minor dips offering low-risk long setups. 📊 4. Candlestick & Market Behavior: Recent candles show long lower wicks, suggesting buyers are stepping in during dips. Bearish candles are relatively smaller and followed by immediate bullish response. This indicates buy-the-dip sentiment, common in a trending market. 🔄 5. Trading Plan & Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Continuation (Base Case): Wait for a clear bullish engulfing or price bounce at the minor support zone (~3.50 USDT). Enter with confirmation: bullish candle close, volume spike, or trendline reaction. Targets: TP1: 3.80 USDT TP2: 4.00–4.10 USDT Stop Loss: Below 3.45 (or structure-based trailing stop) ⚠️ Bearish Case / Deeper Pullback: If 3.50 fails, look for signs of accumulation around the major support (~3.20–3.25). This zone can serve as the ultimate defense for trend continuation and provide a second long opportunity with better R:R. 🧠 6. Mindset for Traders: Don’t chase: Let price come to your level, and focus on confirmation. Trade with the trend: Structure supports bullish movement — trade in the direction of strength. Use proper risk management: Define SL and TP before entering. Partial profits at key resistance zones are a smart strategy. Avoid overtrading : Wait for structural retests or confirmation candles to stay on the right side of the market.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – August 4–8, 2025 The question isn’t whether gold is strong. The question is — will price expand, or rebalance? 🔸 Macro Overview Gold begins the week consolidating just below its final HTF supply zone (3439), while USD weakens amid mixed macro data and growing speculation of future rate cuts. Markets await fresh catalysts, and gold’s recent impulsive rally is now facing the big test: break the wick, or pull back? 🔸 Weekly Structure & Bias Element Observation 🔹 Trend Bullish continuation — clean structure 🔹 Last BOS March 2025 — impulsive, with imbalance below 🔹 Price Action Top wick rejection forming near 3439 🔹 Bias Still bullish, but entering exhaustion zone 🔹 RSI Above 70 — overheated 🔹 EMAs EMA5 > EMA21 > EMA50 > EMA100 — perfect trend 🔸 Key Weekly Levels (Zones + Confluences) Zone Type Price Range Confluences 🔴 Supply 3350 – 3439 HTF wick supply + FVG + RSI 70+ + liquidity trap 🔵 Demand 3270 – 3215 Weekly OB + FVG + EMA21 support 🔵 Demand 3120 – 3070 Old BOS + deep FVG + psychological level 🟢 Support 3000 zone EMA50 + historical consolidation 🔸 Fibonacci Extensions (Above 3439) Extension Level Price Target Confluences 1.0 (Swing Full) 3439 Supply wick high 1.272 3505 Next psychological milestone 1.414 3560 Mid-extension + liquidity 1.618 3610 Golden expansion target 2.0 3740 Full trend extension (max) 🔺 These levels serve as potential breakout targets ONLY if we get a confirmed weekly close above 3439 with clean BOS on LTF. 🔸 Weekly Scenarios 🟢 Scenario 1 – Break and Expand If gold breaks 3439: Expect clean continuation to 3505 → 3560 → 3610 Best entries come from new OBs on H4/D1 around 3350–3370 Follow momentum — but don’t chase without retrace confirmation 🔻 Scenario 2 – Rejection + Retracement If price holds below: Pullback toward 3270 – 3215 expected EMA21 acts as dynamic support If selloff gains strength, next demand = 3120 – 3070 🎯 This zone aligns with macro OB + re-entry for long-term bulls. 🔸 Conclusion & Gameplan Gold is pressing against its final weekly ceiling. Structure remains bullish, but every sniper knows — at the edge of premium, timing is everything. ✅ Above 3439 → expansion opens to 3505 → 3560 → 3610 🟦 Below 3439 → retracement into 3270 → 3215 → 3070 The best setups will be born from confirmation, not prediction. Let the market decide. — What would you do if 3439 rejects hard this week? Comment your plan, tag your sniper level, and let’s stay ahead together 💬 — With clarity, confidence, and perfect timing, GoldFxMinds 💙 Disclosure: Analysis based on Trade Nation (TradingView) chart feed.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
USOIL Technical Analysis – Black Mind Curve Breakout & Reversal🔍 Overall Market Context: The current USOIL structure is a great example of market shift from compression to expansion, characterized by a breakout of the Black Mind Curve followed by a measured impulse move. This chart is not just reacting technically, but it reflects how institutional smart money manipulates curves, breaks minor structures, and then retests zones to refill orders before continuing directionally. Let’s break the market psychology and price action phase by phase: 🔄 Phase 1: Black Mind Curve Breakout ✅ The Black Mind Curve represents long-standing supply pressure that had been capping price. Its breakout marks a shift in market intention, often signaling the end of a distribution phase and beginning of a possible accumulation or re-accumulation. Price broke above this curve cleanly with strong bullish candles, which also broke minor structure levels, confirming short-term bullish sentiment. The breakout was also backed by momentum and volume as the market pushed 130+ pips upward—an aggressive impulse that trapped late sellers below. 📉 Phase 2: Retracement to Interchange Zones Now, we’re in the retracement phase, where price is pulling back toward: 🔹 SR Interchange Zone ($66.80 - $67.30) This zone was previous resistance, now flipping to support. In MMC terms, this area is expected to serve as a refill zone where smart money will look to accumulate again after the breakout. We are watching for confirmation candles or MMC-style reversal patterns here (e.g., inside bar breakouts, demand imbalances). 🔹 Main Zone ($65.80 - $66.50) If the first zone fails, this is the next key demand base. It holds historical value from previous accumulation phases (see July 10–25) and aligns with the origin of the last impulse. Expect a sharper wick or deeper liquidity grab if price moves into this area. 📉 Phase 3: Final Defensive Zone – Major Support ($63.70 - $65.20) This zone marks the last line of bullish defense. A move here would mean the bullish structure is being reevaluated or absorbed by sellers. However, if price hits this level, it could also attract significant institutional demand, setting up for a more powerful long-term leg up. Reactions here are typically large and volatile, with a risk of fakeouts and fast reversals. 📈 Possible Scenarios (MMC Based Forecasting): ✅ Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Primary Path) Price finds support inside SR Interchange Zone. Forms a base (MMC reversal structure) and pushes back to recent highs near $71. Breakout above $71 opens room for next supply zones between $72.50 - $74.00. ⚠️ Scenario 2 – Deeper Liquidity Grab Price breaks below SR Interchange and tests Main Zone for a deeper accumulation. A wick or shakeout may happen before bullish continuation. This trap zone could give the best R:R entry. ❌ Scenario 3 – Breakdown to Major Support If both zones fail and bearish pressure sustains, price may revisit Major Support. That would reset the bullish structure and require fresh MMC assessment. 🧠 MMC Logic at Work: The curve break symbolizes the shift from supply dominance to a possible demand-led phase. Minor structure breaks add fuel to trend shift and indicate participation from larger players. Retracements are not weaknesses—they are refills for those who missed the move. Smart money uses these zones and flips (SR interchanges) to hide in plain sight. 🎯 Key Takeaway for Traders: This is a textbook MMC setup that combines: Curve Breakout + Impulse Zone Retest + Interchange Logic Liquidity Engineering before Continuation Traders should remain patient and observe reactions at each zone. Don’t chase—wait for the market to reveal its hand via MMC entry signals (break-of-structure, bullish engulfings, imbalance fills, etc.)
TVC:USOILLong
by GoldMasterTrades
KIMLUN - DMI and RSI shows BULLISH SIGNAL KIMLUN - CURRENT PRICE : RM1.31 KIMLUN is in an uptrend for medium term as the price is making higher high and higher low. Supported by positive readings in technical oscillators such as DMI (+DI is above -DI) and RSI (above 50), it increases the bullish scenario. At current price trading near SMA 20, there is possibility for price reach upper band in bollinger bands indicator. Nearest support will be RM1.24 (-5.34%) and 1st target will be RM1.41 (+7.63%). ENTRY PRICE : RM1.30 - RM1.31 TARGET : RM1.41 and RM1.47 SUPPORT : RM1.24 Notes : On the fundamental side, KIMLUN shows a strong recovery in earnings. For FY2022, company was loss RM7.2 million. Then the company rebounded with a profit of RM7.1 million in FY2023. For FY2024, company registered strong performance of profit RM50.3 million.
MYX:KIMLUNLong
by IMRAN_96
8/1/25 - $mstr - Selling spot and buying MSTR8/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:MSTR Selling spot and buying MSTR - keeping it (purposefully) short today for everyone's benefit - sold a bit of OTC:OBTC (which is nearly 15% off spot, e.g. $100k/BTC) to buy NASDAQ:MSTR MSD exposure here - why? - 1.6x mNAV is lowest it's been (nearly ever in current BTC move) - Saylor not going to hit the ATM sub 2.5x, will run it hot - Latest product further augments this runway to value accretion - BTC still remains REALLY well bid in this current tape - So math is like this - ROE of BTC in "conservative" sense is 25% - Kc (cost of capital) for Strategy is 10% again (conservative, it's really sub 10%) - so ROE/Kc (without growth) = 2.5x book. - A real ROE for BTC (remember this is permanent capital he's tapping, so no asset-liability mis-match) is 35% - True Kc for this is sub 10%, but let's still say 10%. that's 3.5x book. Therefore let's even say 2x book (below both of the above) is 2/1.6 = 25% upside. If/do you think that BTC can go back to low 90s, ofc this might contract further (the 1.6x) but at the same time, you have EVEN higher implied ROE and R/R only improves. So at a minimum, i'd guess your R/R is "balanced" here in the most conservative scenarios. And if we do get BTC bid, this will rocket at this stage thru YE and far exceed px appreciation of it's BTC pair. Ok that was longer than I intended. Felt important to convey math and up/downside parameters. Be well. Everyone loses money in correlation 1. Just make sure you find the betas that have the first bids. Right now that's BTC and some quality names doing 6-7% fcf yields and growing. I like OTC:OBTC (adding fuel w/ my NASDAQ:MSTR calls) NASDAQ:NXT NYSE:DECK NASDAQ:LULU NYSE:FI <3 V
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by VROCKSTAR
3
NFP Volatility Ahead – Is the Dollar Ready to Break Higher?🟢 DXY Outlook – A Key Day for the Dollar Index Yesterday’s monthly candle closed with strong bullish momentum, marking a powerful start to August. Today, on the first trading day of the month, we’re expecting three major U.S. economic releases: NFP, Average Hourly Earnings (m/m), and the Unemployment Rate. As discussed in last week’s outlook, DXY has successfully broken above the key 100 level and confirmed a monthly close above it — a significant technical development. With no major order blocks or visible resistance in the way, the path toward the 102 target appears technically clear. That said, I anticipate mixed data from today’s releases — which means we could see both sides of liquidity being taken during the initial reaction. Price might dip toward lower zones temporarily to collect liquidity before resuming its bullish move toward 102. 📌 In summary: From a swing perspective, I believe the direction remains bullish for the Dollar Index as long as we hold above the 100 level. When I say the data might be “mixed,” I mean the market could show an initial drop toward lower zones at the time of release — not because of a reversal, but to grab liquidity before continuing higher toward the 102 target. Unless we see something unexpectedly extreme in the numbers, I expect the DXY to remain on track to reach the 102 level in the coming days or next week. 🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mehrasfx
4
VIX: From “Calm Tension” to a ReboundWhy does a small uptick matter today… if we’ve already seen 60+ readings four times in the past 17 years? The first week of August 2025 brought back a familiar market force: volatility. The VIX, which tracks expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, jumped 21% in just a few days, rising from 17.4 to 20.37, with an intraday high of 21.9 on August 1. At first glance, the move may seem minor. But it broke through key long-term moving averages (SMA 50 and 200) and exited its recent comfort zone (14–19 pts). That alone is enough to make portfolio managers and traders pay attention again. 🔙 Historical context: when the VIX truly spiked 📅 Date 🔺 VIX intraday 🧨 Trigger Oct 1, 2008 96.40 Subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman collapse, AIG bailout Mar 2, 2020 85.47 COVID-19 global spread, border shutdowns Aug 5, 2024 65.73 Surprise Fed rate hike + overheated jobs data Apr 7, 2025 60.13 Panic over new U.S. tariffs on global partners Compared to those moments, today's VIX levels look “mild.” But the technical and macroeconomic signals suggest that volatility may be establishing a new baseline. 1. 📊 Breakdown: First week of August 2025 Weekly increase: from 17.4 → 20.37 (+21%). Technical breakout: monthly close above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA 19.25 and 19.45). MACD on the monthly chart has flipped positive for the first time since March 2023. Key drivers: 🏛️ The Fed left interest rates unchanged on July 30, but two dissenting votes favored a rate cut. 👷‍♂️ Softening jobs data: July NFP came in at only +73,000 jobs (vs. +110,000 expected). 🧾 New U.S. tariffs, announced on August 1, reignited inflation concerns. 2. ⚖️ Comparing August 2025 to the August 2024 storm Factor August 2024 August 2025 (Week 1) 🔺 VIX peak 65.73 21.9 🏛️ Fed stance Surprise 25 bp rate hike Rates unchanged, internal division 👷 Labor market Hot, wage pressures Cooling down 📉 S&P 500 reaction −12% in 3 weeks Approx. −3% decline underway 💧 Market liquidity Very low (pre-market) Normal Conclusion: 2024 was a systemic shock. 2025 is more of a volatility warning sign—but one that matters for risk management. 3. 📍 Technical signals to monitor The monthly MACD just turned positive, which historically precedes sustained volatility spikes. Key short-term range: 18–22 pts. A sustained close above 22 could trigger heavy selling in high-beta stocks. Options expiration (OPEX, Aug 16) may amplify moves via gamma flows. 4. 🔮 What could move the VIX next? 📅 Date 📌 Event ⚠️ Volatility Risk Aug 14 Core CPI (July) Reading above 0.3% m/m could reignite hawkish Fed bets Aug 22–23 Jackson Hole Symposium Powell’s speech could reset the policy outlook End of Aug Q2 GDP revision Confirm whether slowdown = soft landing or stagflation 📌 Note: The VIX cannot be traded directly. Exposure is typically obtained through futures, options, or ETNs—each with specific risks like contango, low liquidity, and roll decay. 📌 Final thoughts The VIX doesn’t need to hit 60 to send a message. The fact that it’s breaking above long-term averages, reacting sharply to macro data, and threatening key levels is enough to suggest that the era of ultra-low volatility may be ending. History shows us that major VIX spikes come fast and unannounced. If you remember 2008, 2020, or even April 2025—you know that preparation beats prediction.
TVC:VIX
by SHGTrading
XAUUSD H4 Update – The Battle Has Moved to 3350 “From deep demand to key supply. The next move is decisive.” 🔸 Sunday Plan Recap Price was falling aggressively into the HTF demand zone (3265–3240). The plan anticipated a bounce only if that deep zone held. Above price, major zones included: 3314 – mid-structure 3330–3345 – supply zone 3368–3380 – final retracement targets 🔸 What Changed? ✅ The deep demand zone worked — H4 CHoCH bullish was confirmed. ✅ Price climbed through 3285 and 3314, confirming a retracement leg. 🔥 Now, price sits at 3349.57, testing the same supply zone marked in Sunday’s plan (3330–3345). 🔸 Current H4 Structure 🔼 Short-term bias = bullish retracement 📍 Price = inside HTF premium zone 📈 EMAs aligned bullish (5/21/50), confirming short-term momentum 💡 RSI = approaching overbought ⚔️ Liquidity above 3355, trapped shorts below 3314 🧠 Today’s Battle Plan (August 1) 🔴 Sell Zone (live) – 3345 to 3355 Price just entered the key H4 supply zone. Watch for rejection signs: Bearish confirmation needed (e.g. M15/M30 CHoCH or engulfing) If confirmed → downside targets: 3314 → 3285 → 3265 High RR short only if structure confirms 🔵 Breakout Bullish Case If 3355 breaks with a clean body + HL at 3340 → bullish continuation active Next upside target: 3368 → 3380 🧭 Final Thoughts We’ve reached the exact decision zone from Sunday’s plan. The market will now reveal: retracement over... or breakout coming? Patience is key — this is a high RR zone, but only if structure reacts. 💬 Did you catch the move from deep demand? Or waiting for confirmation here at supply? 📈 Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s break it down together. 🔔 Follow for real-time market insights, sniper plans, and structured trading logic you can trust. ❤️ Like if you enjoy clean, actionable updates🚀🚀🚀 🔁 Share with traders who love structure over noise 📉 Price data from Trade Nation feed
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Novo Nordisk (Revised) | NVO | Long at $47.78**This is a revised analysis from February 5, 2025: I am still in that position, but added significantly more below $50** Novo Nordisk NYSE:NVO is now trading at valuations before its release of Wegovy and Ozempic... From a technical analysis perspective, it's within my "major crash" simple moving average zone (gray lines). When a company's stock price enters this region (especially large and healthy companies) I always grab shares - either for a temporary future bounce or a long-term hold. While currently trading near $47 a share, I think worst case scenario here in 2025 is near $38-$39. Tariffs may cause a recession in the second half of 2025, so no company would be immune. As mentioned above, I am still a holder at $86.74. However, I went in much heavier within my "major crash" simple moving average band and have a final entry planned near $38-$38 (if it drops there). My current cost average is near $55.00. Why do I still have faith in NYSE:NVO ? Because no one else does right now, yet it generated $42 billion in revenue, $14 billion in profits, and has significant cash flow YoY. The company has a massive pipeline, despite Wegovy and Ozempic competition, and I think the market is undervaluing its position in the pharmaceutical industry. Revised Targets in 2028: $60.00 (+25.6%) $70.00 (+46.5%) $80.00 (+67.4%)
NYSE:NVOLong
by WorthlessViews