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Fundamental Analysis

There are opportunities for both bulls and bears in gold!Gold fell back and closed lower yesterday. The daily line closed with a negative cross overnight. The overall market has not changed much. The short-term repeated tug-of-war is temporarily consolidating. Today is the closing of the weekly line, and we will continue to maintain the volatile thinking. In the 4H cycle, the Bollinger Bands closed, temporarily exerting pressure on the middle track. After rebounding to 3350 yesterday, it failed to continue and remained in a weak shock pattern. Therefore, today's operation is mainly short and supplemented by long. The upper pressure is at 3328 and 3336. Short according to the rebound strength, pay attention to the rise and fall of 3310 below. A breakthrough may see the previous low of 3295. If the support is not broken, you can consider going long.🔔For more specific operation details and strategy updates, please pay attention to the notification 🌐 at the bottom. Gold operation suggestion: short gold around 3328-3338, target 3315-3310.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
NZDUSD Inside a Large ABCDE PatternNZDUSD Inside a Large ABCDE Pattern The US dollar is lower across the board today as President Trump may accelerate the announcement of a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as reported by the WSJ. Investors are wary of the lack of independence from the Federal Reserve and expect interest rates to move significantly lower. It is strange that the market did not move up and down in a crazy way at a time when we were close to a possible World War III and it's really funny that all the charts are moving because Powell could be replaced. We have to be careful because these are just rumors at the moment and no one can replace Powell if he doesn't want to. Otherwise, Trump would have made this decision a long time ago. Technical Analysis: The price is testing a strong resistance area near 0.6100 again It looks like we are inside a larger pattern and potentially NZDUSD could move down again once these rumors disappear. Key level zones: 0.6000, 0.5955, and 0.5910 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
10
S&P 500 VS ATH, how to break through?Technical objective achieved! The S&P 500 index has reached its all-time high, offering a bullish V-shaped recovery since the bearish shock of early April against the backdrop of the trade war between the USA and its main trading partners. In our previous TradingView analysis, we highlighted numerous favorable technical signals since mid-April in favor of this rally towards the all-time record, including an analysis of the chart battlefield for the S&P 500 index at the beginning of June, which you can reread by clicking on the image below. In general, don't hesitate to follow our Swissquote account for regular updates on stock market indices and all other asset classes (bitcoin, forex, commodities, etc.). The short-term question is whether the S&P 500 index is in a position to break through its all-time high (ATH) in the immediate future, or whether it needs to enter a consolidation phase first. The answer to this question is both technical and fundamental. 1) From a technical point of view, here are the conditions that would enable the S&P 500 to surpass its all-time record (even if it were to enter a short-term bearish consolidation first)  The market may need to take a breather in the short term after the strong upward rally of the last two months. But for the medium/long term, the underlying trend remains bullish above support at 5800 points and above the 200-day moving average. On the long time horizon, the theoretical target for wave 5 (Elliott waves) lies at 6500 points.  In order for the S&P 500 to be in a position to break through its all-time record, it is imperative that stocks in the most important sectors in terms of weighting are bullish. The S&P 500 can only go higher if the technology, financials and consumer discretionary sectors contribute.  The study of US retail trader sentiment provides a contrarian approach to the financial markets, and it bodes well that doubt and pessimism remain dominant among retail investors. Bear in mind that market tops are built on euphoria, not pessimism.  Finally, in terms of quantitative analysis, the overbought zone is still a long way from the current price level, so it's conceivable that the S&P 500 index could be in a position to surpass its all-time record in the course of July, even if a consolidation phase were to develop in the short term. 2) In terms of fundamentals, two factors seem to me to be essential for the S&P 500 index to be in a position to make further progress  Firstly, the US equity market will not move higher until there is confirmation that the Fed will resume cutting the federal funds rate. On this subject, this week we offered you a full fundamental analysis, which you can read below. The market needs the FED's pivot on either July 30 or September 17. In terms of valuation, the S&P 500 is expensive again, so rate cuts are needed to justify further upside. With the rebound in share prices over the past 2 months, S&P 500 valuation is indeed back in the high zone, so we'll need sharply higher prospective earnings to justify a possible new all-time high in the coming months. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
Gold: A Bearish Outlook - Another Point of ViewGold: A Bearish Outlook - Another Point of View Since yesterday, gold has not moved much despite the situation in the Middle East looking calm and stable for the moment. In a normal market, gold should have started another downward wave, given that a ceasefire was reached between the influential countries and a war that could have lasted for years given their military arsenal. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified for the second day and his comments were aggressive, despite being provoked by many of Trump's supporters with very aggressive tones. This was probably one reason why the US dollar did not show strength. However, gold is a safe-haven asset and if it is to respect its status, chances are it will fall further, at least as a profitable moment, because all the important events have ended so far. It could create a possible reversal from the current area as shown in the chart. Key downside targets: 3314.50, 3300, 3285, and 3270. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
FX:XAUUSDShort
by KlejdiCuni
16
XAUUSD PLAN – June 26Price is inside a Wyckoff range – we're watching for buy setups 🔼 Resistance: 3356 – 3369 Support: 3325 – 3305 🔴 SELL GOLD 3380 – 3383 | SL: 3388 (small lot) TP1: 3375 TP2: 3365 TP3: 3355 TP4: 3345 Open TP: 3330 🟢 BUY GOLD 3315 – 3312 | SL: 3307 (small lot) TP1: 3320 TP2: 3330 TP3: 3340 TP4: 3350 Open TP: 3370 Scalping strategies will trigger if price reacts at the above zones.‼️ Note: Use full Take Profit and Stop Loss for safety and better results.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EliseLunaTraders
Gold Price Analysis June 27Daily Trend Analysis: The price has reacted strongly at the 3348 level, forming a clear and sustainable bearish structure. The 3296 zone is now a critical level — a confirmed breakout below this area could lead to a deeper decline, especially with limited potential for recovery on Friday. Today, the bearish trend is likely to face less resistance compared to the bullish side. As such, a move toward the support zones at 3278 and 3255 is highly probable. Any bullish retracement during the European session should be viewed as a good opportunity to look for SELL setups, targeting 3278 and 3255. As previously analyzed, SELL zones are clustered around key resistance levels. Traders should closely watch price reactions in these areas for potential entry signals. 🔹 Breakout key level: 3296 🔹 Support zones: 3278 – 3255 🔹 Resistance zones: 3300 – 3312 – 3325 – 3336 – 3348 – 3363
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold fluctuated and fell, and the rebound was directly short 📣Gold News Due to the easing of the situation in the Middle East, gold has fallen in the past few days, and the market has been eagerly looking forward to the interest rate cut, because the tariffs in the Trump era may push up inflation, but it has not come yet. " On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor and Commerce issued key economic data, including initial jobless claims and the final value of real GDP in the first quarter. The number of initial jobless claims was 236,000, a decrease of 9,000 from 245,000 in the previous week, better than the market expectation of 245,000. At the same time, as of June 14, the number of continued unemployment claims in the week increased by 37,000 to 1.974 million, a new high since November 2021. Gold stopped below the moving average today. Gold did not continue the small positive line rise, and the decline continued during the U.S. trading period. Today, focus on the continuation of short positions, comprehensive Labaron believes that gold is bearish today. For today's operation, consider rebound shorting as the main, and low long as the auxiliary. 📣 Pay attention to the resistance of 3330-3345 US dollars above 📣 Pay attention to the support of 3300-3280 US dollars below 💰 Go long near 3295-3285, target 3310-3320 💰 Go short near 3330-3340, target 3000-3290 If you have just entered the market, you are confused about the market of gold, oil and silver, and you always do the opposite operation direction and the entry price is unstable. I hope Labaron's article will help you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by labaronAA
GRAB 1W: Two Years of Silence — One Loud BreakoutGRAB 1W: When stocks go quiet for two years just to slap bears across both cheeks The weekly chart of GRAB shows a textbook long-term accumulation. After spending nearly two years in a range between $2.88 and $4.64, the price is finally compressing into a symmetrical triangle. We’ve already seen a breakout of the descending trendline, a bullish retest, and the golden cross between MA50 and MA200. Volume is rising, and the visible profile shows clear demand with little resistance overhead. The $4.31–$4.64 zone is key. Holding this level opens the path to $5.73 (1.0 Fibo), $6.51 (1.272), and $7.50 (1.618). The structure is clean, momentum is building, and this accumulation doesn’t smell like retail — it smells institutional. Fundamentally, GRAB is a leading Southeast Asian tech platform combining ride-hailing, delivery, fintech, and financial services. Yes, it’s still unprofitable (–$485M net loss in 2024), but revenue is growing fast, recently crossing $2.3B. Adjusted EBITDA has been improving steadily, and the company holds $5.5B in cash equivalents with minimal debt — giving it excellent liquidity and expansion flexibility. Valued at ~$18B, GRAB operates in the world’s fastest-growing digital market, with increasing institutional exposure from players like SoftBank and BlackRock. The 2-year base hints at smart money preparing for the next big move. Tactical plan: — Entry: by market — Targets: $5.73 → $6.51 → $7.50 — Stop: below $4.00 or trendline If a stock sleeps for 2 years and forms a golden cross — it’s not snoring, it’s preparing for liftoff. The only thing left? Don’t blink when it moves.
NASDAQ:GRABLong
by TotoshkaTrades
2
Verizon is ready to pop!This stock rallies when 10-year yields fall. Especially if tech stocks take a breather. Tech stocks are on average well into over-bought territory, and 10-year yields have been falling precipitously. Verizon is highly stable and provides a massive dividend which investors flock to when yields fall, currently sitting at about 50% higher than 10 year treasury notes. Combine that with all of the technical indications like the multi-week consolidation inside a bull flag has primed VZ to break out, and you have a great setup. A liquidity sweep has taken place, and it appears the next target for the stock is around $47.50, in-line with most analyst estimates. Call options on July 18 strikes have very high OI. As price moves through these strikes, a rally could ensue. Prior rallies average 10-20%, and typically the stock rallies prior to the Ex Dividend date, which is on July 10th. The stars appear to be aligning on this one.
NYSE:VZLong
by iShowGreen
19
Can PCE data rescue the dollar? JPY, EUR, GBP setup in playThe latest U.S. PCE report is set for release at 8:30am EDT, with both headline and core inflation expected at 0.1% month-on-month. As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, today’s figures could influence interest rate expectations. A stronger print may reduce the case for a July rate cut, while a softer result could add pressure on the U.S. dollar. The dollar has already weakened this week amid speculation over central bank independence (trump is reportedly considering nominating Fed chair Jerome Powell’s successor earlier than normal in order to undermine the current chair). Pairs to watch include, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY with symmetrical triangle formations suggesting breakout potential in either direction for all once the data hits.
by BlackBull_Markets
Is the NZDCAD uptrend still strong?NZDCAD has broken the trendline structure and is heading towards the resistance at 0.83500 0.827 has become a confluence of support and trendline. The pair is looking for more buying momentum at the support zone. 2 zones to watch are 0.827 and 0.823 If the 0.823 zone is broken, the uptrend is broken and the market turns to a downtrend. The target of the downtrend and the market finds the bottom of last month around 0.812. Confirm SELL signal when breaking 0.823
Long
by VHT_Trader
2
Gold Trading Strategy June 26✏️ D1 candle shows a recovery but not significantly. Gold is currently reacting at the key resistance zone of 3342. The immediate support zone that the price is heading toward is 3326. This forms a breakout range between 3326 and 3342. A bullish channel may form if there is a strong price reaction at 3326. Conversely, if 3326 is broken, it could confirm a continuation of the downtrend targeting 3302 during the European and US sessions today. The bearish target could even extend to 3278. 📈 Key Levels Breakout Range: 3326 - 3342 Support: 3326 - 3314 - 3302 - 3278 Resistance: 3342 - 3363 - 3388 📊 Recommended Trade Setups BUY: 3302–3300 | SL: 3297 SELL: 3363–3365 | SL: 3369
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
3
EUR/USD short: The markets are finally ignoring the noise. Hello traders I have taken a break from trying to trade this chaotic mess we have witnessed over the last few months. Liberation Day, Big Beautiful Bill, the Middle East as volatile as ever, Iranian nukes destroyed, etc. etc. On the domestic USA front we have also witnessed daily headlines of the Trump administration being sued, anti-immigration campaign promises being fulfilled, the Judicial system being undermined, for the Love of God, the President of the United States of America saying that he will have to check with his lawyers if he should observe the constitution. And...the independence of the FOMC being threatened on a daily basis. So much for law and order. Smoke and mirrors, folks. Distractions and chaos. But the technical indicators never lie. The indicators also reflect the true fundamentals. In this case, USA inflation is heading higher again. keep an eye on tomorrow's CPE print. Labor market seems OK for now. Therefore, the two projected rate cuts by the FOMC for 2025 have already been priced into the DXY and US 10Y yield. No amount of bullying or public pondering who Chair Powell's replacement will be, can change the fundamentals. Inflation is rearing it's ugly head again. Gold and Bitcoin are both showing daily dojis. The EUR/USD has already turned down from the 0.786% Fibonacci and there is clear divergence between price and RSI. The parallel up channel also seems to confirm an impending downturn in EUR/USD. I did initiate a short EUR/USD position at 1.1688 and my entry order to add to the position at 1.1740 just shy of the 0.786% Fibonacci was also fulfilled. Best of luck all.
Short
by jvrfxalerts
GBPAUD Refuses to Make New Weekly HighsFailed to trade above the resistance zone of 2.101 Currently, the weak reaction at the trendline suggests that it will be difficult for the pair to push higher. If the trendline breaks, the downtrend may extend toward 2.08100 — a level where buyers are likely to step back into the market. We are waiting for further price action around the 2.081 support zone to look for new trade signals. If this level is broken, 2.061 will become the next target for all SELL positions. On the contrary, if the price bounces from 2.081, strong buying momentum could emerge and potentially break through the 2.101 resistance, targeting 2.110.
by VHT_Trader
DXY Technicals Add Pressure on FED Data〽️Weekly RSI Divergence Spotted in the US Dollar Index (DXY) A bearish divergence has emerged on the weekly RSI chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), signaling a potential loss of upward momentum. Historically, such divergences often precede price corrections or reversals. ✅Market Implications: USD pairs, gold, and crypto assets may see retracement as dollar strength wanes in response to technical exhaustion. Traders should watch for signs of consolidation or reversal in assets inversely correlated with the dollar, such as gold (XAU/USD) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD). 📈Macro Outlook: All eyes on the Federal Reserve: The divergence adds weight to market speculation that the Fed might pivot toward a rate cut at its July 15 meeting. If confirmed, rate cuts could further pressure the dollar, accelerating moves in risk-on assets and emerging market currencies. #XAUUSD #DXY #BTCUSD #tgifx
VANTAGE:USDXLong
by LestradePh
1
Is USDJPY in a Downtrend?USDJPY is supported by the trendline and the price is facing the resistance zone of 144.500. If the candle cannot close above this resistance zone, the sellers can push the price to break the trendline and head towards the support zone of 142.700. This support zone plays an important role in shaping the trend if broken the downtrend can be extended and no support zone can be strong enough to push the price of the pair until 140.300. There is still a high possibility of a reaction so the BUY strategy at the support zone of 142.700 is still ready On the other hand, if the candle closes above the resistance zone of 144.500, the uptrend is still maintained and heading towards this week's peak around 147.500. Pay attention to the price reaction at 146.000.
by VHT_Trader
Gold shorting opportunity not to be missedGold hit the key resistance of 3350 and then fell under pressure, reaching a low of 3309, and was temporarily supported by the low point on Wednesday. The intraday showed a pattern of rapid decline after a volatile rise, highlighting the long-short tug-of-war pattern. The hourly line fell again after a pullback to 3328, indicating that there is still room for short-term retracement. The current operation needs to focus on key points: short orders can be entered again near the pullback of 3328-3335. If the market continues to decline, focus on the support range of 3300-3290, and long orders can be arranged if it stabilizes. The overall idea of ​​​​oscillation is maintained. Before effectively breaking through 3350 or losing 3290, high-altitude and low-long are still the main strategy. Gold recommendation: short near 3328-3335, target 3315-3305
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
DLTR: Range + Flow SetupDLTR – Trading Within Range Amid Strategic Evolution & Flow Anomalies Dollar Tree (DLTR) continues to show strength post–Q1 FY2025 earnings, breaking higher as it pushes through its multi-price format transition and nears the Family Dollar divestiture. The stock is outperforming key peers (DG, TJX, COST) and trading above both the 50- and 200-day MAs — a signal of growing institutional confidence. On the fundamentals: Net sales (ex-Family Dollar) jumped 11.3% to $4.64B, comps grew 5.4%, and gross margin expanded to 35.6% despite transitional headwinds. Full-year EPS was guided up to $5.15–$5.65, reflecting management’s conviction in sustained growth. Analysts responded by revising EPS to $6.12 (+13.5% YoY), validating the turnaround thesis. Valuation-wise, DLTR remains notably underpriced. It’s trading at 16.66x forward earnings — well below the retail average and far cheaper than peers like COST (51.1x), TJX (26.9x), and DG (19.0x). The gap is especially compelling given DLTR’s momentum and shift toward higher-margin discretionary sales via the “3.0” format. Unusual Activity Insight: What caught my attention was a cluster of unusual options activity suggesting a short-term strangle strategy centered around the July 18 expiration — likely positioning for the stock to stay range-bound while capturing premium from elevated IV post-earnings. The structure and OI shifts imply smart money is playing both ends of the current price band. Trading Range and Setup: DLTR has been respecting a range between $92 and $102, consolidating after its post-earnings move. That behavior, combined with the flow signals, sets the stage perfectly for a defined-risk premium play. My Approach: Iron Condor (July 18 Expiration) - Sell 100 Call / Buy 105 Call - Sell 95 Put / Buy 90 Put This iron condor aligns with the projected range, offering attractive premium while keeping defined exposure. With theta working in our favor and volatility elevated, it’s a setup that thrives in quiet bullish chop — exactly what we’ve seen since the Q1 breakout
NASDAQ:DLTR
by Wiiso