Liberation, Altercation or Doom? ES Futures weekly planCME_MINI:ES1!
Quick Update
The upcoming week is poised to be critical for financial markets as President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches. On this date, the administration plans to implement new tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit by imposing reciprocal duties on imports from various countries.
As April 2 looms, the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, leaving markets and investors in a state of heightened anticipation.
We may get clarity on the tariff situation on April 2, 2025.
Universal tariff announcement of categories of imports may clarify US administration’s maximum tariff escalation approach.
A phased out and unclear tariff approach may keep markets in limbo.
Economic Calendar
Keep an eye on the data docket, NFP and other key releases are due this week.
Tuesday, Apri 1, 2025 : ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday April 2, 2025 : ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM
Thursday April 3, 2025 : Balance of Trade, Imports, Exports, ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, April 4, 2025 : Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM,Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Fed Chair Powell Speech
Key Levels to Watch:
Yearly Open 2025 : 6001.25
Key Resistance : 5850- 5860
LVN : 5770 -5760
Neutral Zone : 5705-5720
Key LIS Mid Range 2024 : 5626.50
2024-YTD mCVAL : 5381
2022 CVAH : 5349.75
August 5th, 2024 Low : 5306.75
Scenario 1: Bold but Strategic Tariffs (Effective Use of Tariff to reduce trade deficit and raise revenue) : In this scenario, we may see relief rally in ES futures, price reclaiming 2024 mid-range with a move higher towards key resistance level.
Scenario 2: Maximum pressure, maximum tariff (All out trade war) : In this scenario, we anticipate a sell-off with major support levels, such as 2024- YTD mCVAL, 2022 CVAH and August 5th, 2024 low as immediate downside targets.
Scenario 3: Further delays in Tariff policy (A negotiating tool, with looming uncertainty) : In this scenario, sellers remain in control and uncertainty persists, while we anticipate that rallies may be sold, market price action may remain choppy and range bound.
Fundamental Analysis
#AUDCAD: 548+ Pips Selling Opportunity! Comment Your Views? OANDA:AUDCAD
We have a good selling opportunity coming up and this can worth up to 548 pips. We estimate trade to get activated within next week or so since we have NFP next week. We recommend all of you to use proper risk management. Good luck and have great weekend.
Euro at Critical Demand – Is the Trend About to Flip?Euro reached an important zone for my setup, triggering a long position. Although it’s still trending below the fibcloud on the 4H timeframe, we’ve seen a solid 0.5% recovery from the recent low. I’m looking for this area to hold as support, with defined risk in case the setup invalidates.
Technicals:
• Price tapped into a major 4H support level where liquidity historically steps in.
• The current move marks a 0.5% bounce from the low, showing early signs of demand.
• Still trading below the fibcloud, but a reclaim of that zone would open the path toward 1.0850.
• Setup includes a stop-loss below the most recent wick low, with a clear structure to build a higher low.
Fundamentals:
EUR-side strength:
• ECB maintains a slower pace of rate cuts compared to the Fed.
• Growth and inflation in the Eurozone are still challenges, but the ECB’s hawkish stance continues to support medium-term EUR strength.
• The ECB may hike another 150 bps to reach a 4% terminal rate, which favors EUR upside.
USD-side risks:
• Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all car imports, including from the EU-adding geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
• Traders remain cautious around further escalation in US-EU trade tensions.
• US Initial Jobless Claims later today could bring weakness to the dollar if the data disappoints.
In short, while the USD remains resilient, the EUR fundamentals and the current technical zone make this a compelling spot for a bounce.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
BTCUSD Analysis Today: Technical and On-Chain !In this video, I will share my BTCUSD analysis by providing my complete technical and on-chain insights, so you can watch it to improve your crypto trading skillset. The video is structured in 4 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the on-chain data analysis, then I will be moving to the liquidation maps analysis and lastly, I will be putting together these 3 different types of analysis.
3.31 Gold US market operation analysis suggestions!Gold intraday analysis and operation: How to judge the next step after gold breaks through 3130!
Gold's strong rise in the Asian session has brought the price of gold close to 3130 and finally stagnated at 3127. The impact of the US market has not yet appeared, but with the current trend, the volatility of gold tonight will not be too small. The overall idea is to maintain the low north. The intraday volatility range is maintained within the range of 40 points between 3090 and 3130. The current increase has exceeded market expectations. Although there is selling pressure, it is all suppressed by the bulls!
US market pressure focus: 3130-3150 above and 3110-3095 below
The above analysis is a personal analysis suggestion, I hope it can bring some gains to everyone!
We will update regularly every day and introduce to you how we manage active ideas and settings. Thank you for your likes, comments and attention, we are very grateful
Future Fund of XRP Popular Web3 Growth Manager Cas Abbé asserts that the end of the Ripple lawsuit sets the stage for a further XRP rally to the double-digit range.
Abbé made the declaration in an X thread over the weekend as he highlighted the impact of the lawsuit’s resolution on XRP’s price.
The expert indicated that the lawsuit’s resolution has already been priced in, as the price of XRP spiked over 500%—from around $0.5 to $3.3–during Q4 2024.
3 Factors That Could Send XRP Above $10
While many think XRP’s rally has ended following the lawsuit’s resolution, Abbé asserted that the coin could see more gains. He highlighted three bullish catalysts that could send XRP’s price above $10 following the lawsuit’s conclusion.
XRP ETF Approval
Following the lawsuit’s resolution, Abbé suggests that regulatory clarity is now in place for XRP in the U.S. This has prompted over 10 institutions, including Franklin Templeton, to file for spot-based XRP ETFs. He predicted that other top asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity could also seek the SEC’s permission to launch XRP ETFs in the U.S.
The expert noted that PolyMarket predicts an 83% probability of XRP ETF approval in 2025. Abbé noted that institutions might invest in these funds if this prediction materializes due to XRP’s narrative as a payment asset with U.S. government backing and regulatory clarity.
He expects the ETF approval to impact XRP’s performance by paving the way for a significant rally.
RLUSD Adoption
In addition, the expert points out that the lawsuit’s conclusion could drive the adoption of Ripple USD (RLUSD), which would positively impact XRP’s price.
According to Abbé, the U.S. government is already bullish on stablecoins, especially those pegged to the U.S. dollar. Abbé suggested that the government aims to leverage USD-pegged stablecoins to maintain its dollar hegemony.
In his view, Ripple intends to achieve a similar goal through its RLUSD stablecoin, which is backed by U.S. dollar deposits, government bonds, and cash equivalents.
Explaining how RLUSD might benefit XRP, Abbé characterized the stablecoin as digital cash for the dollar and XRP as the ‘global courier’ connecting everyone, including banks. Abbé indicated that as banks attempt to integrate with digital dollars through RLUSD, XRP will serve as a bridge currency, eliminating the need for multiple currency conversions.
He emphasized that the narrative is similar to how USDT adoption supposedly drove Bitcoin’s market cap to over $2 trillion and USDC adoption pumped ETH valuation to over $600 billion. Consequently, he forecasted that the massive adoption of RLUSD will also be bullish for XRP’s growth.
Ripple IPO
Lastly, the expert noted that 2025 might finally be the year for the highly anticipated Ripple IPO due to the U.S. pro-crypto administration and XRP regulatory clarity.
Abbé suggested that a Ripple IPO is a big deal as it could allow the company to venture into multiple markets, such as real-world assets, decentralized finance, and others. He expects this expansion to attract more revenue for Ripple, with XRP poised to benefit significantly, increasing its value over time.
Interestingly, Abbé expects these factors to drive XRP’s price above $10, marking a surge of 376.19% from the current value of $2.1.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 31 March - 4 AprilMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rates, US and Canada’s Employment Data & Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision
- US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
- Unemployment Rate in Canada
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GameStop’s Bitcoin Bet Fails to Wow Traders. Can It Copy MSTR?GameStop NYSE:GME wants to jam Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD into its treasury. But isn’t that a risky move that threatens to derail the video-game retailer’s finances? With $1.3 billion on the line, GameStop’s pivot to Bitcoin in efforts to revive its flagging share price may make things even worse. Let’s talk about that.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. After a couple months of speculation, traders’ suspicions turned out correct — GameStop is indeed adding Bitcoin on its balance sheet .
The company confirmed the plan in its quarterly earnings update released last week. That was all good — shares jumped 8% on the news and closed the cash session higher by 12%.
But these solid gains were not only wiped out — traders doubled down on the selling pressure when the shares crashed 23% a day later because GameStop unveiled a scary figure.
To make Bitcoin a treasury reserve asset, GameStop said it is seeking to sell $1.3 billion of convertible bonds , which will be used “for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of Bitcoin in a manner consistent with GameStop’s Investment Policy.”
What do these convertible bonds do? They’re essentially papers that certify you’ve given the company a loan. Usually, they come bearing some nice guaranteed yield, but in this case, the yield is exactly 0.00%.
Another string attached to GameStop's bonds is that they are due in 2030 and you can choose to convert them into shares, each with a price tag of $28.46, or you can take them out in cash. That’s one reason why the stock tanked last week — not too favorable conditions.
Another one, and perhaps a bigger worry for investors, is that GameStop’s net income will no longer be as secure as it’s been until now. More precisely, GameStop generates around $220 million in interest each year thanks to its holding of Treasury bills.
With Bitcoin getting in the mix of factors contributing to the bottom-line figure, things may spin out of ordinary. True, Bitcoin may go up in price and lift GameStop’s net income but it could also decide to nosedive for no reason and eat into GameStop’s profits.
Judging by the votes of the traders last week (if the stock market is a voting machine in the short term), they seem to believe in the latter. At least for now. But that's not a concern to the OG meme stock . Where it hopes Bitcoin will make a difference is the long run. Just look at MicroStrategy MSTR .
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy , is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Even more, it’s a Bitcoin hoarder, sitting on more than 506,000 Bitcoin, according to BTC-tracking platform Bitcoin Treasuries .
Strategy has been issuing debt to buy Bitcoin since 2020 and that’s the exact same thing that GameStop is doing. But there’s a key difference. Strategy has largely strapped its share price to the performance of Bitcoin. So much so that the market has been feverishly buying the stock as a way to get exposure to Bitcoin (on steroids). For GameStop, it’s too late for that.
Shares of Strategy are trading at less than 2x the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
GameStop, in contrast, has appealed to investors for its stack of cash (besides the speculative bonanza) with $4.8 billion in dry powder ready to be deployed. The stock is trading at more than 2x its cash holdings and the cash-to-Bitcoin conversion is likely to dent that performance and trigger some outflows. And that’s how the company puts its premium at risk.
So is it safe to say that GameStop is looking to spark a share-price rally by following MicroStrategy’s lead? Maybe. But the exposure to Bitcoin also comes at a perilous time for the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin is down 10% on the year and more than 25% from its all-time high of $109,000 to hover around $84,000 a pop.
Can the Bitcoin philosophy reel GameStop out of the slump? Or will it drag the bottom line and chip away at whatever’s left of the bruised valuation under $10 billion? You be the judge — share your thoughts in the comment section!
Grasp the trend and analyze the full range of BTC longsTechnical analysis: Based on in-depth technical analysis, the current BTCUSD decline has slowed down, and there are signs of building double bottom support. The 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average form a golden cross, the MACD indicator continues to strengthen and the bar chart continues to expand. As BTCUSD stops falling, market sentiment is gradually warming up, institutional funds continue to flow in, fundamental support is solid, and the upward momentum may gradually strengthen. It is the right time to go long.
BTCUSD operation strategy: Go long in the 82500-81500 area. Target 83000-84000
Trading discipline: 1. Don't blindly follow the trend: Don't be swayed by market sentiment and other people's opinions, operate according to your own operation plan, market information is complicated, and blindly following the trend is easy to fall into the dilemma of chasing ups and downs.
2. During the transaction, we will continue to pay attention to news and technical changes, inform us in time if there are changes, strictly implement trading strategies and trading disciplines, move forward steadily in the volatile market, and achieve stable asset appreciation.
EURUSD Gains Momentum After Tariff CommentsEURUSD Gains Momentum After Tariff Comments
On March 26th, EUR/USD started a strong upward trend following comments by Trump about auto and other tariffs.
The price has already climbed by about 110 pips in just four days.
There’s a good chance EURUSD could rise further, potentially reaching 1.0845 and 1.0875, as indicated in the chart.
The market is not clear overall about Trump's tariffs and what he is doing. This could continue to create uncertainty across USD pairs.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold surges and then falls, indicating an imminent fallGold early stage layout plan: Long and short strategy all the way to stop profit in the actual market, huge profits, witnessed by the whole network!
Technical analysis of gold: At present, Trump's tariff policy will be officially announced on Wednesday. Today, Asian stock markets fell across the board in the Asian session, because Asian stock markets opened the earliest. According to historical laws, the stock market's reaction is the fastest. European stocks may also fall across the board. The short-term decline in the stock market often brings a short-term rebound in the price of gold. Focus on the trend of the US stock market. Once the US stock market falls sharply and rapidly, it is often accompanied by a rapid decline in the price of gold. In the morning, the price of gold has rebounded by more than 50 points from the low of 3076 to 3127. After rebounding by more than 50 points, we can intervene in short selling at 3120-25, and close the position when it falls back to around 3105-15. Today, the European and American sessions focus on the breakout of 3127-30. If the European session fails to break higher, then this point may become a short-term high point. It is best to take long positions when it falls back to around 3105-3100. Finally, I would like to advise all retail investors that when the market fluctuates violently, if you cannot control yourself and go with the trend, then shorting may be the best choice. It is better not to do it than to make mistakes! Watching more and doing less is also a suitable strategy. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the trading session, and you should pay attention to it in time. If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope that your investment can avoid detours. Welcome to communicate and exchange!
Gold operation strategy: short gold at 3120-25, target 3105-3115, and go long at 3110-3100.
Trading discipline: 1. Don't blindly follow the trend: Don't be swayed by market sentiment and other people's opinions, and operate according to your own operation plan. Market information is complicated and blindly following the trend is easy to fall into the dilemma of chasing ups and downs.
2. In gold trading, we will continue to pay attention to news and technical changes, inform you in time if there are any changes, strictly implement trading strategies and trading disciplines, move forward steadily in the volatile market, and achieve stable asset appreciation.
(Note: The above strategy is based on the current trend, and will be adjusted according to real-time fluctuations during trading. It is for reference only)
31/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $88,775.01
Last weeks low: $81,579.54
Midpoint: $85,177.27
As Q1 2025 draws to a close, last week we saw a mirror image of the March 17th week with a swing fail pattern of the weekly high and a gradual sell=off throughout the week.
The reluctance for buyers to step into the market under the $91,000 resistance is telling me that the bulls are just not confident in current market conditions to bid into resistance. This may be because of the Geo-political factors, ongoing war, tariffs etc. Uncertainty does worry investors and so it's a valid reason.
From a TA standpoint however is a bigger worry in my opinion. Bitcoin failed to flip the 4H 200 EMA after the 8th time of trying since mid February and that is the biggest concern for me. As long as this moving average caps and reversal pattern then the trend is still bearish and should be treated as such.
$73,000 is still the target for a downward move IMO, a further -10% move from current prices. For the bulls a SFP of the weekly low could set up another bounce to weekly highs that have remained in approximately the $88,000 zone for two straight weeks. Major resistance around those levels and of course the dreaded 4H 200 EMA must be flipped too. Currently this is a tall order given how price action has been of late, sentiment is poor and altcoins are completely decimated in most cases. So I can't see the majority wanting to buy in until these criteria are met and we're trading back above $91,000.
This is still a traders environment, not a Hodler/investor.
#XRPUSDT: Bullish Reversal Coming With Price Heading Back To 3.5## XRPUSDT Analysis: Long-Term Perspective
In the long term, we anticipate the XRPUSDT price to revert to its all-time high of 3.5. From a fundamental analysis standpoint, we maintain a positive outlook, with the potential for the price to surpass 3.5. We have identified a favourable trading opportunity, as illustrated in the chart.
Our approach is neutral, as the trend remains undecided. Based on the duration of your positions, you can set two targets:
1. **Short-Term Target:** If you intend to hold your positions for a short period, aim for a price level above 3.5.
2. **Long-Term Target:** For long-term investors, a target price of 4.0 or higher is plausible.
We are committed to providing comprehensive analysis and support. Should you have any inquiries or require further clarification, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Additionally, we would appreciate your insights on which cryptocurrency pair you would like to explore next.
Regards,
Team Setupsfx_
Trade for XAUUSD (GOLD) Today
Okay here's my trade i took with gold earlier. My target was a 1:3R and my idea came from combination of my multi timeframe analysis. From Daily i go down to 1H tf for more info then go down to 5m tf for my final entry. For this week i can see Gold retrace going towards the Daily BISI below and since today is Monday, i am expecting price to go up first and liquidate before it will reverse going down. So once i saw that in 5m tf that price went towards the 200 EMA i monitored price and saw that price was rejected and respected the 200ema in 5m tf which is also aligned to the 1H tf level of change in state of delivery. So to make it clear, price respected 200ema at the same time respected and was rejected by the 1H order block so with this combination of ideas i came up with my final decision to enter a LONG entry. It was a fast and smooth trade...
Gold weekly chart with both buy and sell levels 30-03-25Gold weekly forcast with both Buy and sell levels
gold in an uptrend all week from last weeks buy level it ran 553 pips wit little to no drawdown.
For this week we are looking at 2 levels for both buy and sell entries .
For a buy ill look at entering at 3091 expecting 3098 to 3100 as first resistance , if we brreak we can expect 3112 as next resistance on the way to 3136.
For a sell ill look at entering at 3076 expecting 3068 to 3066 as first support , if broke we can expect 3054 to 3050 as next support.
With these trades its best to just wait for levels for a conformation and the bigger moves.
last weeks buy are did not register until Thursday morning but when it hit there was no drawdown and closure at the high gave 533 pips.
As always with these trades wait for levels and secure on the way by either taking profit or reducing lot size.
Trade is based on support and resistance, trend lines and fibonacci levels from the higher time frame.
Ill update as the week progresses , stay safe
The Day Ahead Key Economic Data & Events – March 31
US: Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing index
China: Official PMIs (Manufacturing & Services)
UK: Lloyds Business Barometer, Consumer Credit, M4 (Money Supply)
Japan: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts
Germany: CPI, Retail Sales, Import Prices
Italy: CPI
Central Banks: ECB’s Panetta & Villeroy speak
Relevance to Trading:
US, China, and Germany data impact equities, bonds, and FX (USD, CNY, EUR).
Inflation data (CPI) from Germany & Italy could influence ECB policy expectations.
PMI & industrial production data provide insights into global economic health.
ECB speakers may signal policy direction, affecting EUR volatility.
Tencent invests €1.2 billion in Ubisoft spin-offsChinese giant Tencent(HKG:0700) (Ticker AT: TMC.US) has gone further in its expansion in the digital gaming industry by extending its interest in the Ubisoft (EPA:UBI)(Ticker AT:UBI.FR) Spin-Off with a whopping €1.2 billion, in a company currently valued at €4 billion. With this deal, Tencent acquires a 25% stake, while Ubisoft retains control, trying to sustain its position in a particularly difficult year.
The French developer is still in free fall: its shares have lost 33% in the last 12 months , revenues are down by more than a third, and its market capitalization barely reaches €1.7 billion. Not even the expected launch of a new Assassin's Creed has managed to reverse the situation, due to its conflicting use of characters of different races in a historical context that has nothing to do has generated image problems for being considered by the gamer public as excessively unattached to the historical reality of that time.
This financial crisis is compounded by reputational problems. Ubisoft is still embroiled in a legal scandal related to allegations of harassment at the top of its board of directors, which has scared off private investors. In this context, Tencent's capital injection comes as a strategic lifeline, strengthening its position in the sector while taking advantage of the weakness of one of the most iconic European companies in international gaming.
The move reaffirms Tencent's appetite for the video game industry, where it already has stakes in Riot Games, Epic Games and Activision Blizzard , consolidating its dominance in an increasingly competitive market.
On the technical side:
As we commented, the firm has not lost the downtrend of the last 12 months, realizing a loss of 33%, reducing its market capitalization to €1.7 billion. Currently, the stock is trading in a range between €10.480 and €10.610 per share, showing a clear downward trend, which for the moment even Tencent has not been able to undo. On Friday, Ubisoft experienced a price rally, closing the day with a red candle with a very long wick, indicating profit-taking after the rally. It is worth noting the volume of 3.93 million for that session, an exceptional figure considering that during the quarter, trading volume has barely exceeded 1 million in most sessions.
What is worth noting is that the 100-day average has fallen above the 50-day average and the 200-day average is still touching the candle we have indicated, so it is very likely that this trend is reversing. Since the second week of February, the share price has been recovering around 12.4 euros per share. The current price has started the session with a green candle, so we could see a new attempt to extend this downward correction around 12.19 euros per share. If we look at the 4-hour chart, the bullish volume came after the Tencent news, and subsequently the price did not hold and many traders liquidated positions. We will have to see if the news is accompanied with further economic results from the firm to lift the price above the downtrend channel. The RSI indicates 42.36% with a slight oversold level. After correcting in the previous session. We will have to see the evolution in the coming sessions to see if it advances in positive. A current situation in which it seems that the company seems to have touched a price floor and could be a time to enter longs with the new momentum of strong investors leading the Board of Directors of the firm.
The move reaffirms Tencent's appetite for the video game industry, where it already has stakes in Riot Games, Epic Games and Activision Blizzard, consolidating its dominance in an increasingly competitive market.
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Gold Hits New Highs Amid Rising Uncertainty – 31 March 2025 MarkGold Market Overview – 31 March 2025
Gold ended last week at historic levels, closing near $3,085 per ounce, amid rising economic uncertainty and renewed tariff-related rhetoric from the U.S. President, particularly concerning the automotive sector.
During late trading hours yesterday, fresh developments regarding trade tensions—along with references to potential geopolitical escalation—were noted. These factors appeared to contribute to a gap-up opening for gold, which reached a new all-time high of $3,125 per ounce.
While future price movements remain uncertain, market participants may monitor the following levels:
* The $3,125 high could serve as a key reference point; any revisit to this level may draw attention to the $3,150 area.
* A moderation in momentum near $3,125 might result in a revisit to the $3,112 level.
* Should prices fall below $3,110 , the $3,100 area—commonly observed as a psychological benchmark—may become relevant.
* A continuation below $3,100 might bring the previous high of $3,085 back into focus.
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