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“Pack Your Bags… or Bail Out Fast”This is the “I’m just here for the pop” strategy — where we ride that violent engulfing candle like it owes us money… but keep one hand on the eject button. AMIX just flash-banged the chart with a surprise move from the graveyard, blowing past the 50MA like it saw its ex. We’re targeting a scalp-to-swing depending on whether it holds above $1.36 (5MA) or rejects at $1.42–$1.48 (previous supply zone). Tight stop under $1.29, because if this turns fake, you’ll be dragging that little red suitcase next to the cartoon dude — headed back to “Bagholder Island.”
NASDAQ:AMIXLong
by bovinebreed
Lucara long Lucara is almost below the TSX lows made in 2008. If you bought equity in the company anywhere in the last 10 years you are losing money. The company is in debt to finance the construction of new mining facilities and has been taking their sweet time. However, the owners are Lundin and they know how to play the game with equity, marginal pricing, debt, balance sheet shenanigans, and leverage. I would not at all be surprised if the debt in the company's balance sheet is mostly owned by the family and they are just taking out their pay in the form of debt repayments instead of in the form of dividends. Diamonds are famous for being used in drilling, I'm not sure if Lucara sells diamonds for drilling, but Trump's policy is drill baby drill. Even if Lucara does not sell diamonds for drilling they should benefit from the news cycle and public perception. This is a very speculative play and it depends of a series of factors, but I reckon there is a good chance it goes to 0.88 USD/share, 1.10, even 1.45.
OTC:LUCRFLong
by TraderItcha
ARKK: The Calm Before the Innovation Storm -ALTSEASON Is COMING🚀 ARKK: The Calm Before the Innovation Storm 🌪️ The markets are shifting, and disruption is about to go vertical. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is quietly positioning itself for what could be the most explosive move of this decade. With high-conviction bets in AI, Bitcoin, genomics, and next-gen tech, this isn’t just a fund—it’s a launchpad for exponential growth. This post breaks down exactly why ARKK could go parabolic—and why the smart money is already moving in. 👇 Explosive upside in 2026 ARKK is already up over 24% YTD , showing strong momentum compared to broader markets and signaling early stages of a potential parabolic move . High-conviction concentration in game-changers Top 10 holdings include Tesla, Roku, Zoom, Coinbase, UiPath, Block, Crispr Therapeutics, DraftKings, Shopify, and Exact Sciences. These are leaders in innovation sectors with massive upside potential . Deep exposure to Bitcoin and digital assets Heavy allocation to Coinbase and Block gives indirect exposure to Bitcoin . If BTC breaks into a new cycle high , ARKK stands to benefit significantly. Positioned in exponential growth sectors Focus on AI, genomics, EVs, fintech, robotics, and blockchain , all of which are entering accelerating adoption phases globally. Aggressive smart-money accumulation Cathie Wood’s team continues buying aggressively during dips, reinforcing institutional confidence in the fund’s long-term trajectory. Technical breakout structures forming Ascending triangle and multi-month consolidation breakouts suggest a technical setup primed for explosive upside . Innovation supercycle aligning ARKK's themes are aligned with major global shifts like de-dollarization, decentralized finance, and AI convergence . High beta = massive upside leverage With a beta above 2 , ARKK tends to outperform in bull runs , offering leveraged exposure to innovation without the need for margin. Resurgence of top holdings Names like Coinbase, Tesla, Shopify, and Roku are up 50%–100% YTD , driving ARKK’s NAV growth and fueling bullish sentiment . Long-term vision with short-term catalysts The fund projects 5x returns over the next five years , while Bitcoin halving cycles, tech innovation, and regulatory clarity serve as short-term ignition points . Marty Boots | 17-Year Trader — smash that 👍👍, hit LIKE & SUBSCRIBE, and share your views in the comments below so we can make better trades & grow together!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by MartyBoots
41
GOLD trades in narrow range after 4 sessions of sharp declineOn Tuesday (July 29), in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD traded in a narrow range after yesterday's sharp decline, and the current gold price is around 3,315 USD/ounce. The OANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 weeks on Monday, mainly due to the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. The previous report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of US JOLTS jobs unexpectedly increased in May, reaching the highest level since November last year. The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the US in May was 7.769 million, far exceeding the forecast of all economists surveyed. Looking back at the data in April, the number of JOLTS job vacancies also showed an unexpected increase. The JOLTS jobs report is a closely watched labor market data by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the Conference Board of America's Consumer Confidence Index for July is scheduled to be released on the same day and is expected to be 95.8, compared to the previous value of 93.0. The fundamental pressure that gold is under OANDA:XAUUSD came under pressure yesterday and fell to a near three-week low, mainly due to the trade deal between the United States and the European Union (EU) over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. Moreover, US President Trump announced “global tariffs” of 15% to 20% on most countries, a change from his previous statement last week. The deal reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Union late last week will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, half the rate Trump had threatened, easing fears of a wider trade war. The U.S. and Japan also reached a deal last week, and U.S. and Chinese officials resumed talks in Stockholm, Sweden, this week with the goal of extending the tariff deadline by 90 days. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been on a four-day losing streak, a decline that threatens bullish expectations as its current position gradually deprives it of any room for further upside. Specifically, gold has recovered from the psychological level of $3,300 but the actual recovery is not significant, while it is under pressure from the EMA21 which is currently the closest resistance. On the other hand, gold has fallen below both the long-term and short-term trend channels. If it continues to sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, this will confirm a break below the psychological level of $3,300, then the downside target will be around $3,246 in the short term, rather than $3,228. RSI is pointing down, below 50 and still far from the 20-0 area, also showing that in terms of momentum, gold is also under pressure and there is still a lot of room for decline ahead. For gold to be eligible for an increase, it needs to at least bring price activity back above the EMA21, back inside the price channels. On the current daily chart, the technical conditions are more inclined towards the possibility of a decrease. Notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 - 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3355 - 3353⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3359 →Take Profit 1 3347 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3341 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3285 - 3287⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3281 →Take Profit 1 3293 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3299
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
DOGEUSDT 4H – Bullish Reversal Building from FMFR Zone📊 Chart Context & Market Maker Concept Breakdown DOGEUSDT on the 4H timeframe is setting up for a potential trend reversal, following a structured retracement into a strong demand zone that aligns with multiple smart money confirmations: QFL base, trendline break, volume absorption, and FMFR (Final Move Final Reaction). Let’s dive into the technical layers of this setup: 🔻 1. Downtrend Phase & Structure Setup After peaking near $0.29, DOGE entered a controlled downtrend, respecting a descending trendline and forming a consistent lower-high structure. Each rejection from the trendline reflects institutional distribution, gradually pushing price into lower demand levels where value buyers can step in. 🔄 2. Supply Flips into Demand (S/D Flip Zone) A key level near $0.225 – $0.230 initially acted as a supply zone — but following QFL logic and smart money reaccumulation, it is now showing signs of demand activation. The chart highlights “Supply Interchange in Demand”, which means that this zone has been repurposed — from distribution to accumulation — another MMC footprint. 📌 Interpretation: This is where large players flip their position bias and start loading for the next leg up. 🔵 3. Volume Absorption Confirmed Prior to the current bounce, a strong volume absorption phase was detected within a falling wedge or triangular base, shown on the chart. Despite sell-side pressure, buyers continued to absorb orders — a sign that selling is weakening, and accumulation is underway. 📌 Clue: Volume absorption often precedes an explosive breakout, especially when aligned with FMFR or QFL patterns. 🔁 4. Final Move Final Reaction (FMFR) Price tapped into the green box zone one final time, marked as FMFR (Final Move Final Reaction) — a key MMC reversal signal. This occurs when market makers fake a breakdown (creating panic) and then sharply reverse, trapping breakout sellers and scooping up liquidity. A small bullish candle formation (Bullish Engulfing / Pin Bar) can be seen within this zone — the “Bullish Pattern” label marks this. 🧠 Smart Money Logic: Institutions want liquidity. FMFR fakes weakness to attract retail shorts, then reverses to ride liquidity to the upside. 🔗 5. QFL Base + Break of Structure Setup A QFL (Quick Flip Level) pattern is forming. This represents a market structure flip, where price first drops from a base, reclaims it later, and continues in the opposite direction. Breaking this base and confirming above it would mark a true reversal in structure. 🛠️ Technical Confluences at Work Element Insight 🔹 QFL Structure Base level reclaim in play (structure shift) 🔹 Volume Absorption Smart money soaking up sell pressure 🔹 FMFR Reaction Final stop hunt before the rally begins 🔹 S/D Flip Supply turned to demand near $0.225 zone 🔹 Bullish Pattern Early confirmation of reversal 📈 Projection Path & Reversal Zones Two projected zones are mapped for price behavior: 🔸 Central Reversal Zone (~$0.250): First significant resistance where price may pause or react. Ideal partial profit level or re-entry after pullback. 🔹 Main Reversal Zone (~$0.270–0.275): Target area for a full liquidity sweep. This was a previous high-volume supply zone. If price reaches here, expect potential rejection or distribution unless momentum is strong. 🎯 Trade Setup Strategy (Based on Your Chart) Entry Area: $0.225 – $0.229 (FMFR Reversal Zone) Stop-Loss: Below $0.221 (beneath FMFR low) Take Profit 1: $0.250 (central zone) Take Profit 2: $0.270 – $0.275 (main reversal zone) 📐 Risk-to-Reward: TP1: 1:2 TP2: 1:3+ depending on entry timing 🧠 Psychology Behind the Setup This DOGE setup is engineered to trap emotional traders: Retail sellers enter late near the bottom. Smart money waits at FMFR zone, absorbing liquidity. Volume builds quietly. Market reverses explosively, catching retail off guard. By recognizing this setup early, you’re aligned with Market Makers, not against them.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
TONUSDT Bullish Reversal from Demand with QFL Base | MMC Setup📊 Technical Breakdown – 4H Chart ✅ Overview TON/USDT is exhibiting early signs of a bullish reversal after a structured decline into a key smart money demand zone. The setup reflects multiple layers of confirmation—QFL base, multi-supply absorption, liquidity inefficiencies, and a positive reversal pattern—suggesting a high-probability opportunity for upside. 🔹 1. Impulsive Move & Liquidity Sweep Price rallied aggressively on July 22–23, pushing toward $3.60, breaking short-term highs and triggering liquidity grabs above recent consolidation zones. This surge absorbed significant buy-side liquidity, leaving a supply zone behind, now marked as the Next Reversal Zone. After liquidity was collected and orders filled, the market reversed sharply, consistent with institutional profit-taking or engineered liquidation traps. 🧠 Smart Money Insight: Institutions often push price into illiquid zones (above highs) to trap retail and fill large orders. This marks the first phase of the trap. 🔻 2. QFL Base and Multi-Supply Absorption The price structure created a Quick Flip Level (QFL) — a smart money concept where price forms a base, drops, then rallies, leaving behind an institutional demand zone. The current pullback has revisited this exact QFL base, now reinforced by 3x supply absorption, enhancing the zone's strength. This confluence increases the probability of a strong reaction to the upside from this level. 📌 Note: The “If Cross 3x Supply” label shows that this zone has absorbed multiple attempts to break down. It's now acting as a demand pocket. 🔄 3. Reversal Area – The Engine Room of Smart Money The Reversal Area is carefully marked at $3.20–$3.28 — the ideal discounted price zone where large buyers tend to step in. This zone is structurally important: Past breakout level Aligned with QFL base Beneath stop levels of breakout traders A Positive Pattern has now formed within this area—likely a bullish engulfing, morning star, or pin bar, depending on candle confirmation. 📌 Psychology: This zone acts as a trap. Retail traders often panic sell here, while smart money accumulates quietly before launching price upward again. 🧭 4. Dual Scenario Structure – Projected Paths You’ve beautifully mapped two valid future price scenarios based on reaction to the Central Reversal Zone (~$3.35): 🔵 Scenario 1 – Healthy Pullback Before Continuation Price climbs toward the central zone, then pulls back slightly to retest support near $3.28–$3.30 (label 1). This allows further accumulation before price breaks higher. This is a safer re-entry scenario for patient traders looking for a retest. 🟢 Scenario 2 – Direct Impulsive Rally to Next Reversal Zone Price continues with bullish momentum, slicing through $3.35 and aiming for the Next Reversal Zone at $3.52–$3.60 (label 2). This zone contains remaining liquidity, left uncollected from the previous impulse. Price is likely to reverse or pause at this level again due to heavy supply. 📌 Key Tip: If price reaches that zone without significant resistance or exhaustion, it may signal continuation potential with minor corrections. 💼 Strategic Trade Plan (High-Probability Setup) Entry Zone: $3.20 – $3.28 (Reversal Area) Stop-Loss: Below $3.15 (beneath structure + QFL base invalidation) Target 1: $3.35 (Central Reversal Zone) Target 2: $3.52–$3.60 (Liquidity Completion & Next Reversal Zone) 🧮 Risk-Reward Estimate: Conservative: 1:1.8 Aggressive: 1:2.5 or better if price reaches high liquidity zone. 🔄 MMC Flow Summary – What the Market Makers Are Doing: Create a trap at the top (collect liquidity and fake the trend) Force price down into demand (scare retail + grab stops) Absorb sell orders in bulk at QFL/demand zone Form bullish reversal pattern (positive structure) Push price upward again, aiming for uncollected liquidity above 📌 This is a classic MMC cycle — engineered by large players, and now you’re aligned with their strategy. 🧠 Why This Matters This chart isn’t just about entry and exit; it’s about understanding the underlying psychology and structure. By aligning with the smart money footprint — QFL, supply absorption, and liquidity targeting — you're maximizing edge and minimizing guesswork.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Report - 29 jully, 2025Summary Initial optimism following the historic US–EU trade agreement has swiftly eroded as France and Germany openly criticized the deal, warning it undermines EU sovereignty and economic stability. The euro fell sharply, carmakers led equity declines, and political fractures within the bloc widened. While the deal averted a full-blown trade war, concerns over inflation, competitiveness, and regulatory submission have shifted sentiment. The perception of European capitulation under pressure from Trump has reignited transatlantic tensions and injected fresh volatility into global markets. This retreat in EU support underscores the precarious nature of transatlantic cooperation under Trump’s economic nationalism. Meanwhile, signs of tech decoupling, tariff expansion beyond the EU, and deferred retaliation signal a fractured global trade order. European fiscal policy, particularly Germany’s defense-driven deficit expansion, is now under heightened scrutiny amid market volatility and FX pressure. Market Reactions Equity markets across the EU opened higher on tariff relief expectations but reversed course as Germany’s Chancellor Merz and France’s Prime Minister Bayrou denounced the deal. The DAX fell 1.1%, CAC 40 slipped 0.4%, and eurozone auto stocks plunged 1.8%. The euro lost over 1% against the dollar in its second-largest daily drop this year, reflecting concern over structural imbalance and political subordination. In contrast, semiconductor stocks surged, with ASML and BE Semiconductor rising over 4% as the tech sector escaped tariffs. Wall Street remained relatively stable, buoyed by optimism around defense, energy, and tech sectors gaining from the deal. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.9%, reflecting both euro weakness and expectations that inflationary tariffs could keep Fed rates elevated. Fiscal and Political Implications The backlash from Berlin and Paris lays bare deep fractures within the EU regarding its posture toward Washington. Chancellor Merz’s warning of "considerable damage" and Bayrou’s reference to EU “submission” cast doubt on Ursula von der Leyen’s negotiation strategy. The deal’s imposition of a 15% baseline tariff—triple the pre-deal weighted average—exposes Europe to substantial cost increases without achieving reciprocal liberalization. Internally, the European Commission is accused of caving to U.S. pressure while undermining its own credibility. Documents and diplomatic leaks suggest that more aggressive retaliatory planning was watered down due to fears of a broader security rupture, particularly concerning NATO and U.S. arms support to Ukraine. This reinforces the EU’s strategic dependency, limiting its ability to resist U.S. economic coercion. Germany’s effort to shield its auto industry via offset schemes largely failed, while Brussels’ “trade bazooka” was shelved in favor of “strategic patience.” This perceived capitulation may embolden further unilateral action from the U.S., especially as Trump eyes tariffs on pharmaceuticals and rest-of-world imports up to 20%. Strategic Forecasts Europe's short-term economic outlook has darkened. The tariff burden—especially on high-margin exporters like German autos—raises inflation risks while lowering competitiveness. Political backlash could destabilize Commission leadership and provoke calls for more aggressive economic sovereignty. Expect further euro weakness, sectoral underperformance in autos and industrials, and possibly downgrades to GDP forecasts across the eurozone. On the U.S. side, Trump’s success with transatlantic leverage may embolden him to expand tariff threats to Asia and Latin America. The Fed will likely face a more inflationary policy environment, with fiscal and protectionist stimulus prolonging higher rate expectations. Simultaneously, China's relief from U.S. tech export freezes—designed to secure a Xi-Trump summit—adds complexity to the strategic tech rivalry. The suspension of chip export controls could spur near-term capital inflows to Chinese AI firms while igniting concern in U.S. defense circles. Risks and Opportunities Risks Breakdown in EU cohesion and trust in Commission leadership Expansion of U.S. tariffs to rest of world (ROW), escalating global trade friction Retaliation by China if U.S. chip diplomacy reverses Drag on European industrial profits and inflation-driven ECB recalibration Fed rate path upwardly skewed due to structural tariff-driven inflation Opportunities U.S. defense and energy sectors benefit from guaranteed EU purchases Semiconductors remain shielded, with valuation support in ASML, TSMC, Nvidia Dollar strength provides tactical trades in EURUSD, GBPUSD Select EM exporters (e.g. Brazil) benefit from re-diversified trade flows AI hardware and chip infrastructure (Samsung–Tesla deal) gains strategic momentum Key Asset Impact – Outlook XAUUSD (Gold): Gold holding firm around $3,340. With fresh political discord and rising protectionist inflation, gold remains a hedge. If Fed signals rate hold, expect a push to $3,400. Bias: Bullish S&P 500: Resilient, driven by defense, energy, and AI. But prolonged strong dollar and tariff-induced input cost pressures are risk factors. Bias: Moderately Bullish Dow Jones: Benefiting from defense and dividend-heavy mix, but under pressure from industrial drag. Bias: Neutral to Bullish DXY (US Dollar Index): Strengthening on euro weakness and policy divergence. However, long-term Fed autonomy concerns and political volatility could reverse trend. Bias: Bullish short-term, Neutral longer-term USDJPY: Little movement today. BoJ still cautious, yen capped unless Fed shifts dovish or global risk-off resumes. Bias: Range-bound EURUSD: Second-largest single-day drop YTD. Political backlash and export headwinds limit upside. Bias: Bearish Crude Oil (WTI): Flat to slightly higher, supported by EU commitment to U.S. energy, but demand data remains soft. Bias: Neutral Stoxx Autos: Heavy selloff (-1.8%) despite tariff reduction, reflecting margin pressure. Bias: Bearish ASML / BE Semiconductor: Relief rally on tariff exclusion. Long-term tailwinds from open AI infrastructure and Samsung–Tesla chip deal. Bias: Bullish
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
GBPCAD At Support - High probability reversalGBPCAD descended with strength, and has now reached a strong support zone. Price now hovers above and this zone and is a great indication to use for possible reversal move, that could send price into the 1.86100 level. But if price breaks below support with momentum, then I’ll back off this bullish bias and reassess, and consider the reversal idea invalidated, with potential for further downside. Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TrendDiva
39
US Dollar Index (DXY) Reaches One-Month HighUS Dollar Index (DXY) Reaches One-Month High The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to its highest level since early July. According to media reports, the bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the following factors: → Optimism around US trade agreements. A new trade deal with the EU — which includes a 15% tariff on European goods — is being perceived by the market as favourable for the United States. → Confidence in the resilience of the US economy. Strong Q2 corporate earnings have acted as an additional bullish catalyst. Investors may have started covering short positions against the dollar, viewing concerns over a US slowdown as overstated. → Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold. From a technical standpoint, today’s DXY chart reflects strengthening bullish momentum. Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart Two U-shaped formations (A and B) that developed over the summer have created a bullish сup and рandle pattern — a formation that suggests waning bearish pressure, as evidenced by the shallower second dip. This setup points to the potential for a bullish breakout above the trendline (marked in red) that has defined the downward movement in the DXY throughout the first half of 2025. As previously analysed, there are signs that the dollar index may have found a base following a period of decline. This could indicate a shift in market sentiment and the possible end of the recent bearish phase. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
1
DCF VALUATION ANALYSIS OF BSEConclusion: OVERVALUED :-OVERVIEW BSE Limited has shown strong financial growth in recent years. Its revenue jumped from ₹924.84 crore in FY23 to ₹1,592.50 crore in FY24 (a 72% increase), and further surged to ₹3,212 crore in FY25, doubling year-on-year. EBITDA grew impressively to ₹1,779 crore in FY25 with a 60% increase, and EBIT reached ₹1,670 crore, up 56%. Net profit also rose significantly to ₹1,112 crore, with earnings per share increasing to ₹81. Dividend per share improved to ₹23, reflecting healthy returns DCF: -The valuation was performed using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach based purely on verified financial data and market risk parameters without relying on user-specific growth assumptions. -The cost of equity was calculated using an adjusted risk-free rate plus equity risk premium multiplied by beta, resulting in a discount rate of approximately 13.58%. The terminal growth rate was conservatively taken as 4%. Using these reliable inputs and actual EBIT cash flows, the intrinsic enterprise value was estimated at around ₹36,839 crore, translating to an intrinsic value per share of approximately ₹1,364. -Currently, BSE’s market price is around ₹2,480 per share, which is substantially higher than the intrinsic value derived from fundamentals, indicating the stock is trading at a significant premium. This valuation is grounded in audited company financials and globally accepted valuation methodologies, providing a trustworthy reference point for investors.
NSE:BSEShort
by Tap_trader
1
Silver Near $40: Deficits and Demand Fuel the RallySilver prices surged to multi-year highs in July 2025, driven by an extraordinary convergence of bullish factors, pushing prices above $39 per ounce, levels last seen in 2011. Silver’s rally, supported by robust industrial demand and safe-haven inflows, aligns with traditional patterns as the U.S. dollar has weakened over 2.3% over the recent period. Macroeconomic Drivers and the U.S. Dollar Silver's rally is unfolding around shifting macro conditions. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at a restrictive 4.25-4.50% throughout 2025 due to persistently high inflation (2.7% YoY). However, expectations for more rate cuts are growing, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 59.8% probability of a cut at the September meeting as of July 28. Adding to the complexity, U.S. trade policies have triggered significant market volatility and raised concerns over a potential supply shock. The U.S. administration has imposed steep 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico, set to resume on August 1. This has heightened fears, as Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer and supplies over half of U.S. silver imports. But macro drivers aren’t the full story. The real force behind silver’s rally lies in the physical market itself. A structural supply deficit, escalating industrial demand, and growing investor appetite from Asia and North America, are proving to be far more pivotal than shifting rates or a softer dollar. Physical Market Dislocation and Industrial Demand The year 2025 marks the fifth consecutive year of a structural deficit in the global silver market, and the imbalance between supply and demand shows no sign of easing. With minimal new mining capacity expected to come online and lengthy lead times for project development, supply constraints are structural rather than temporary. Since 2021, the cumulative shortfall has reached nearly 800 million ounces (25,000 tons), steadily drawing down available inventories and tightening the market. Industrial demand remains the central pillar of silver’s bull market. Forecasts for 2025 project record consumption of roughly 700 million ounces, driven by rapid adoption in green technologies and digital infrastructure. The electrical and electronics sector, which includes solar photovoltaics (PV), consumer electronics, automotive electronics, power grids, and 5G networks, has increased its silver usage by 51% since 2016. Solar PV alone consumed approximately 197.6 million ounces in 2024, a record largely driven by China’s 45% expansion in solar capacity. With global EV production expected to approach 20 million units in 2025, automotive silver demand alone could exceed 90 million ounces. Together, persistent deficits, accelerating industrial consumption, and capital flowing into physically backed investment vehicles are creating a market where available silver is increasingly scarce, amplifying upside pressure on prices regardless of short-term macroeconomic shifts. COMEX silver inventories peaked at 504.72 million ounces on May 11 but have since eased back to levels last seen on April 24, indicating a recovery in demand following the large accumulation in US inventories post-tariff shock. Positioning and Ratios Favour Gains With net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, silver ETP investment has already surpassed the total for all of last year. By June 30, global silver ETP holdings reached 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below their highest level since the peak of 1.21 billion ounces in February 2021 Futures positioning has also surged , with long positions up 163% over six months. These factors have helped propel silver prices over 35% higher year-to-date, building on a 21% gain in 2024. The iShares SLV ETF netted inflows of $1,467.5 million over the past 3 months. Physical silver investment demand remains robust, with significant buying from Asian markets. India, the world’s leading silver importer, saw record purchases of physical bullion and silver-backed ETFs during the first six months of 2025. The gold-to-silver ratio, currently in the late 80s, remains historically elevated, suggesting silver remains significantly undervalued compared to gold. This indicates substantial upside potential for silver, especially given persistent market deficits, rising industrial and investment demand, and gold rising at the same time. Hypothetical Trade Set-up The silver market’s bullish fundamentals appear increasingly robust. Investors may consider accumulating silver positions, viewing short-term consolidations as attractive buying opportunities amid the compelling long-term outlook. Options open interest for the September contract shows a bullish bias with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and high call interest at the far out-of-the-money call strike of $45 per ounce. To express a bullish view on silver, investors can deploy a long position in CME Silver futures expiring in September. A hypothetical trade setup for this view is described below. ● Entry: $38.00 per ounce ● Target 1: $40.00 per ounce ● Target 2 (extension): $42.00 per ounce (if Fed easing in September coincides with physical tightness) ● Stop Loss: $36.70 per ounce ● Profit at Target 1: $10,000 ● Profit at Target 2: $20,000 ● Loss at Stop: $6,500 ● Reward-to-risk ratio: 1.54 (Target 1) and 3.08 (Target 2) Alternatively, investors can exercise the same view using CME Micro Silver futures, which offer smaller notional positions and more flexibility. Each Micro contract is priced in USD per ounce and represents 1,000 ounces of silver, compared to 5,000 ounces for the standard contract. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by mintdotfinance
EURGBP Bullish Reversal Setup from Demand Zone (MMC Strategy)📊 Detailed Technical Analysis: The EURGBP pair on the 2-hour chart is currently at a critical technical juncture, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. This analysis follows Market Maker Concepts (MMC), which combines liquidity engineering, smart money movements, and structure shifts. Let’s break it down: 🔄 1. Consolidation Phase – Accumulation in Action (Smart Money Footprint) Between July 15 to 24, the price moved within a tight range — classic consolidation behavior. This phase suggests accumulation by institutional players, quietly building long positions while trapping retail shorts and longs. This kind of sideways structure typically precedes a high-volume breakout, which happened right after. 📌 Lesson: Consolidation is often the calm before the storm — prepare for a breakout when this phase completes. 🚀 2. Breakout with QFL Pattern – Aggressive Bullish Shift The price broke above the consolidation range and surged strongly. This breakout followed a classic QFL (Quick Flip Level) structure — where price forms a base, drops temporarily, and then explodes upward. The area of breakout aligns with a “2x Supply” zone — meaning this zone acted as a magnet for stop orders, and once breached, added more fuel to the rally. 📌 Why QFL Matters: It marks a shift in market sentiment — from balanced to strongly biased, in this case toward bulls. 📉 3. Pullback Phase – Structural Correction Begins After reaching a high near 0.87500 (major resistance), price began to pull back sharply. It formed a minor descending flag/channel, a classic corrective pattern, often a pause before resuming the larger trend. A descending trendline has been drawn to capture this pullback structure. 📌 Important: Pullbacks are healthy — they allow for re-entries and provide better R:R setups. 📍 4. Reversal Zone – Key Demand Revisited Price now sits within a Reversal Zone (Demand Area), marked in green on the chart. This level previously served as the base for the breakout and aligns with institutional buying interest. The area acts as a high-probability buy zone, supported by: Trendline support Price rejecting lower levels Historical reaction at this zone 📌 Why It’s Crucial: If price respects this demand zone, it confirms bullish intent and creates a low-risk buying opportunity. ✅ 5. 2nd Confirmation – Price Action Support The chart marks a "2nd Confirmation" label at a slightly lower level — this is a final support level, a safety net. If price dips and bounces here again, it confirms buyer strength. Strong price reaction at this level would validate a trend continuation setup back toward highs. 💹 6. Positive Pattern – Early Reversal Signs Inside the demand zone, a bullish structure is forming. This could be an inverted head & shoulders, or a double bottom pattern. These patterns often act as launch pads for upward moves, especially when combined with institutional demand. 📌 MMC Insight: Market Makers engineer dips to induce panic, only to reverse aggressively once liquidity is absorbed. 🎯 Trade Plan Based on the Analysis: Buy Zone: Between 0.86450 – 0.86700 (Reversal Zone) Stop-Loss: Below 0.86250 (beneath 2nd confirmation) Take Profits: 🎯 TP1: 0.86900 (Minor resistance) 🎯 TP2: 0.87500 (Major swing high) Risk-to-Reward: 1:2 or higher depending on entry timing 🧠 MMC Strategy Summary for Minds: This EURGBP 2H chart is a textbook example of MMC-based trading. We saw: Institutional accumulation (consolidation phase) QFL breakout (confirmation of bullish intent) Return to demand (market maker’s discount area) Early bullish signals (positive price action patterns) Multiple confluences at the Reversal Zone (trendline, demand, confirmation zone) Such a combination offers a high-probability swing trade setup. Patient traders can wait for the structure to break upward and join the trend with tight risk and clear targets.
by GoldMasterTrades
BITCOIN → Hunting for liquidity. Retest resistance before a fallBINANCE:BTCUSDT.P continues to consolidate after a strong rally. There is no strong driver yet, and Bitcoin is reacting weakly to economic data. There is a possibility of a continued correction... Bitcoin is still in correction, but is rebounding from the local low of 117.4, formed during the pullback, and is heading back up towards the zone of interest at 119.8-120.1, which it did not reach during the main upward movement. I see no fundamental or technical reasons for the correction to end and for growth beyond 121K. I expect a rebound from the resistance zone towards 115-114K. However, in the medium term, I expect the market to attempt to close half or all of the gap between 112K and 114.8K, thereby expanding the key trading range. Resistance levels: 119.77, 120.1K, 120.8K Support levels: 117.4, 116.37, 115.68 Technically, a false breakout (liquidity capture) of key resistance and price consolidation in the selling zone could trigger bearish pressure on the market, which in turn would lead to a correction. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
6
XAUUSD: Demand Rejection or Breakdown? All Eyes on 3,300 ZoneChart Analysis Breakdown (30m TF – Gold/USD) 1. Market Structure Overview Bearish Trend Dominance: The price has shifted into a bearish structure after a Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside, indicating bearish control after failing to sustain higher highs. Lower Highs & Lower Lows: A consistent formation of LHs and LLs confirms bearish momentum. 2. Key Zones & Reactions 🟩 Demand Zone (~3,300–3,310): Current price is reacting from a clearly defined demand zone. Strong buying wick indicates interest and potential short-term bounce. This zone has historical significance — previous reversal point. 🟥 Supply Zone (~3,420–3,445): Price reversed sharply from here. This is a key liquidity zone; expect heavy resistance if price retraces. 🔵 BOS Areas Marked: Confirmed transitions in structure: Bullish BOS followed by a bearish BOS — great illustration of shift in control. 🟨 Consolidation Blocks: Highlighted ranging periods show distribution/accumulation phases before breakouts. 3. Trendlines & Channel Patterns 📉 Descending Trendline: Acts as dynamic resistance. If price retraces to this level (around 3,330–3,340), expect potential rejection unless broken cleanly. 📈 Previous Bullish Channel (Broken): Price moved out of a bullish ascending channel, confirming bearish intent. 4. Ichimoku Cloud Context Price is below the Kumo cloud, suggesting bearish bias remains intact. Future cloud is bearish. However, short-term pullback into cloud possible (especially if demand zone holds). 📊 Forecast & Trade Idea Scenario 1: Bullish Rejection from Demand Price may bounce towards 3,340 (previous S/R + trendline retest). Watch for reaction at this level. Scenario 2: Clean Break of Demand Zone Opens path toward deeper downside (e.g., 3,280 or even lower). Could trigger liquidity grab before reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllyPipsExpert
1
EURUSD Analysis : Rejection at Demand – Institutional Buy Setup🔍 Technical Storyline – What the Chart Tells Us: 🔸 1. Previous Bearish Structure – Descending Channel: Price has been moving within a well-respected bearish channel, signifying structured sell-side liquidity control. This channel served as a trap zone, where retail sellers were induced while institutions accumulated buy-side positions below the range. The controlled movement inside the channel ended with a breakout to the upside, signaling a disruption in bearish control. 🔸 2. QFL Zone Formation – Manipulation & Liquidity Grab: QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) is evident in two phases here: The first QFL acts as a reaction point where the market dropped to test demand and rallied aggressively. The second QFL near the highs shows price swept previous liquidity before dumping, hinting at institutional profit-taking and possible redistribution into discount areas. 🔸 3. Central Reversal Zone (CRZ): Price reversed sharply from this CRZ, which acted as a major supply level. The CRZ marks the top of the manipulation range. This was a liquidity sweep targeting trapped long positions that entered too late at the highs. 🔸 4. Demand Revisit + Positive Rejection Pattern (Current Phase): Price has now reached the MMC-validated demand zone, which previously launched a strong bullish move. The long lower wick in the latest candle shows buyer absorption, suggesting early signs of a Positive Reversal Pattern. This area is marked with high probability for bullish continuation, as it aligns with both technical support and smart money logic. 💡 Trading Plan & Market Mindset: 🔸 📈 Bullish Scenario (High-Probability Play): Wait for bullish confirmation, such as: Bullish engulfing on 1H/4H Break of minor intraday structure (e.g., break of internal LH) Strong volume surge from the zone Entry zone: Within the demand block – 1.15500 to 1.15750 Stop-loss: Just below the demand zone (1.15250) Target 1 (TP1): 1.16500 – minor intraday resistance Target 2 (TP2): 1.17500–1.18000 – retest of QFL high and Central Reversal Zone 🔸 ❌ Bearish Invalidator: A 4H candle close below 1.15250 would break the demand zone structure. Invalidation of MMC reversal – move toward deeper liquidity (1.14500–1.14800) 🧠 Trader’s Psychology & Institutional Mindset: Institutions often induce price spikes to trap both buyers and sellers. This entire structure reflects classic accumulation → manipulation → distribution → reaccumulation. The retest of the original demand zone allows institutions to re-enter at discount before pushing price back toward the highs. “In MMC, patterns are not just shapes – they are footprints of institutional intent.”
by GoldMasterTrades
Rectangle Consolidation + Bull Trend = BTC Setup for ATHYesterday, Bitcoin dipped and recovered again, following last week's sharp spike down, triggered by the $9B Galaxy Digital sale on behalf of a Satoshi-era investor. ________________________________________ 🧠 Why is this important? Despite being one of the largest BTC sales in history, the move only caused a temporary spike down. That’s a clear sign of market strength and strong interest on dips. ________________________________________ 📉📈 Current Technical Context: • If we ignore the spike, price is consolidating in a tight rectangle • That’s typically a continuation pattern • The broader trend remains strongly bullish 📌 Put all of that together, and we have at least 3 reasons to expect upside continuation ________________________________________ 🎯 Key Levels: • Break + daily close above $120K → likely leads to a new ATH and a potential test of $130K • Invalidation only comes with a break below $114K ________________________________________ Conclusion: BTC just absorbed a massive $9B sell without blinking. As long as $114K holds, I'm bullish and expecting continuation. Next leg could (and I hope it will) be explosive. 🚀
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
EURUSD Breakdown Bearish Trend Continues or Demand Zone Reversal🔍 Chart Breakdown: EUR/USD (30-min TF) Trend Overview: Previous Trend: Bullish channel structure (highlighted in blue). Current Momentum: Strong bearish breakdown following a clear range phase. The chart shifted from consolidation → breakdown → aggressive bearish continuation. 🧱 Key Technical Highlights: 1. Bearish Breakout: Price broke below the ascending trendline and exited the ranging box, confirming a bearish shift. Multiple Breakdown Retests (highlighted with red arrows) confirming structure failures and validating resistance zones. 2. Range Zone (Distribution Phase): Price moved sideways within the green rectangle (“RANGE”), indicating accumulation/distribution before the selloff. The breakdown from this range confirmed bearish momentum. 3. Demand Zone Test (Now in Play): Price is approaching/hovering around a demand zone (green box) marked as a critical support. Buyers may react here, offering two key scenarios: Bounce back to retest resistance around 1.1600 (highlighted). Breakdown below demand, leading to further decline toward next major support zones (1.15354 and 1.15040). 4. Price Reaction Zones: 🔴 Resistance zones are clearly marked where breakdown retests occurred. 🟢 Demand zone with bounce-or-break logic provides directional bias. 🧭 Potential Scenarios (Marked on Chart): ✅ Bullish Case: If demand zone holds, expect: A corrective rally toward 1.1600–1.1620. Watch for rejection signals here (could be ideal for re-entering shorts). ❌ Bearish Case: If breakdown below green demand zone occurs, targets: 1.1535 (local structure support) 1.1504 (next confluence level; possible long-term bounce area) 📈 Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud: Price is well below the cloud, confirming bearish control. Structure: Lower highs & lower lows = confirmed bearish trend.
by AllyPipsExpert