Fractal Consolidations Pre-Elections Shortprice swept after london session LRLR (blue box) High adn that was my entry Stop-Loss went above HRLR (red box) and I targeted Previous Week Low which was LRLR at the same time!
Fundamental Analysis
BTC Dominance: 60% - "I'm the captain Now"Hello friends,
A quick follow-up to my previous BTC dominance analysis!
Remember when we talked about BTC at 54% and said 58% could be next?
Well, look where we are now - 60% dominance! Everything played out exactly as discussed.
What this means:
- We're deep in the "Alts Bleeding" phase
- The 50% danger zone is far behind us
- That 54% resistance? Completely crushed
- Next major target could be 65%
Real talk:
- This is NOT the time for alt trading
- Strong alts are barely keeping up with BTC
- Weak alts are getting destroyed
- BTC is the safest play right now
Keep it simple:
If you're still in alts, you might want to reconsider that position. BTC is showing who's boss ""Look at me, I'm the captain now"" , and fighting that trend is dangerous.
Previous analysis was spot on, and the trend is still strong. Sometimes the best trade is staying away from what's bleeding.
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NFADYOR
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GL & trade safe!
BTC TOWARDS THE ELECTIONSTomorrow is the big day, all assets might break down and aim at lower lows and key levels, espcially in the US ;
USD, GOLD, BTC and NASDAQ will all be touched by this ;
BTC has already broken and will confirm tomorrow.
BTC and the previous three US Election DatesThis charts the dates of the previous three US Elections (2012, 2016 and 2020) on a log chart, with price on the horizontal axis at daily candle close.
As you can see, once price breaks above (sometimes next day, as in 2020, sometimes a week or more later, as in 2016 and in 2012) price has never returned - ever.
Plotted are the time and percentage difference from election date to cycle ATH. On average it's 387 days apart.
If things play out this time in a similar fashion we can expect this week into mid next week to be the final time BTC will be in the mid 60k per coin - ever.
USDJPY ALL INTomorrow is the big day, all assets might break down and aim at lower lows and key levels, espcially in the US ;
USD, GOLD, BTC and NASDAQ will all be touched by this ;
tomorrow we'll know whether USDJPY is aiming at the top or the ground around 12PM.
XAUUSD RALLYTomorrow is the big day, all assets might break down and aim at lower lows and key levels, espcially in the US ;
USD, GOLD, BTC and NASDAQ will all be touched by this ;
other currencies as well but less importantly.
ELECTIONS : GOING DOWN !!Tomorrow is the big day, all assets might break down and aim at lower lows and key levels, espcially in the US ;
USD, GOLD, BTC and NASDAQ will all be touched by this ;
other currencies as well but less importantly.
Prescription for Gains!Recursion Pharmaceuticals is building strong bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $6.00 level. A breakout above the $8.16 resistance would confirm further upside, targeting the $9.99 weekly resistance. This setup provides an attractive risk-to-reward ratio, with downside managed through a stop-loss at $5.49.
In the longer term, RXRX could extend its bullish run to $15.72, supported by the company’s innovative approach to drug discovery using AI and machine learning. As Recursion leverages technology to streamline the development of new therapies, it has positioned itself as a leader in biotech innovation. The increased adoption of AI in healthcare and RXRX’s strategic partnerships further support its potential for strong revenue growth and long-term value.
With both technical momentum and a compelling growth narrative in biotech, RXRX is well-positioned to reach $9.99 in the near term, with an eye on $15.72 as a longer-term target.
NASDAQ:RXRX
NZDUSD with two probabilities for 11/5/2024This is my idea Nbr 27 after 25 ✅️
NZDUSD with a high probability to make the decision for 11/5/2024 ✅️ :
🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss.
🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Possible future outlook for GOLD 100 EMA holding price on a steady up-trend.
Elections + probable RATE CUT coming should give a lot of gas to gold and it could break toward new highs.
I have been calling 3,000 since FEB. Don't be surprised if this week it breaks 2800.
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GOOD LUCK!
AUD/USD quick strat 11/4/2024Analysis:
Trend Analysis:
- decline trend weak and more overturned by jumping inclined volatility
- MACD decline trend weak and untrying
- historical data shows high inclined volatilty
Structure:
-weak trend bulls overpowering bears significantly
-historical data in momentum favors bulls stability VS bears instability
Risk Management:
- can be tightened up due to statistical forecast and news & events
regular risk management for this period 40% turned to 20% max, 15% least
News & Events:
- poll burnings
- hurricanes
- Elections
- economic data imbalance looks as if they will lower rates to make currency look attractive
Objective & Targets:
expect jumping volatility to lead to significant inclines/higher price swings buy signifacnt low @ 0.65803 expect price to incline significantly to 0.66442 are. 0.90% incline from entry leaving 1.3% more to go for actual tp1 target
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMPBUYING at the lowest rate. gives you a good opportunity to invest in long term profitable portfolio. (if only trump wins) if not, then you can just breakeven whatever way you can. who doesnt wanna try their lucks here? so lets goo.
not a financial advice. do your own research before executing any trade
Tick.. Tock.. $BTC #Bitcoin, instead of stressing over small corrections that occur in a short period of time, looking at it from a broader perspective often yields healthier results.
Zooming out to see long-term trends can help you see the general trend more clearly by ignoring daily fluctuations in the market.
In this way, you can stay calmer when making investment decisions and avoid panic sales. 🤝
Soybean Oil’s Red Pill Moment: The Short Signal Just Hit"You’ve been waiting, watching, wondering when the veil would lift. Today is that day."
Soybean oil just crossed a threshold, one that turns theory into action. This isn't just a hint anymore; it’s a red pill moment. Today, we got the confirmation we needed: a Daily bearish momentum divergence trigger has sealed the deal. If you've been waiting for a sign, here it is—the entry point is here.
Decoding the Signs from the Commitment of Traders (COT)
"What if I told you that the market leaves clues? And only the most discerning see them."
Our strategy isn’t based on surface-level movements but on patterns and signals that tell the deeper story. Soybean oil is primed for a down move. Let’s break down the intel:
Commercials’ Short Stance
Relative to their positioning over the last 26 weeks, commercials have positioned themselves heavily short. Last time they were this committed was December 2023, a setup that spelled trouble for the long side.
Overvaluation Across Key Metrics
Against gold and treasuries, soybean oil is flashing overvalued based on our WillVal indicator. This isn’t random; the market is overextended and vulnerable to the downside.
Bearish “Pinch” Confirmation
Two weeks ago, a Bearish Pinch formed on ADX/Stochastic—one of the most reliable indicators of an impending pullback. Today’s momentum divergence confirms it. The alignment is uncanny, if you’re paying attention.
Seasonal Trends: Down to December
True Seasonal points down, favoring the bears. It’s as if time itself is backing this move.
Supplementary Indicators Are Aligned
Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic are all signaling in unison: the tide is turning. Each of these alone is meaningful, but together, they mark a rare convergence that few recognize.
"The trigger is pulled, and now we walk the path."
This isn’t a drill. Today’s bearish momentum divergence confirmation is the daily trend trigger we needed, a line in the sand between potential and execution. For those who see beyond the surface, this is your sign to take action.
To uncover more of these market signals and gain the insights no one else is sharing, follow @Tradius_Trades. Because once you’re in on the code, everything changes.
Coca Cola - A Clear Trading Setup!Coca Cola ( NYSE:KO ) will provide a textbook setup soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Coca Cola is one of these "under the radar" stocks which is just trending higher and higher but nobody is really paying attention. However currently Coca Cola is retesting a resistance trendline of the governing rising channel pattern so a short term retracement is quite likely.
Levels to watch: $72, $65
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Adobe - Triangle Textbook Long Setup!Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) is breaking out soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After creating a rally of +2.000% over the past decade, Adobe created its all time high back in the end of 2021. The consolidation ever since has been quite expected, especially looking at market structure. But if Adobe breaks out of the current triangle, we will see new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $440, $560
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Another chance to buy $USOIL near the bottom of the rangeOn September 9th with oil dropping down to $68 from $84 back in July I pointed out that there was support down in that zone from what I call the "SPR REFILL LEVEL".
A month later in early October the price of crude oil had rebounded to $76-$78 and the highest daily low reached $74.51 and the highest high was $78.43. Pretty volatile price action in one of the worlds top commodities that impacts global GDP substantially.
By late October, oil had fallen once again back to the "SPR REFILL LEVEL" at the $67 level and once again has been rebounding since and today sits at $71.40 here.
The BIGGEST point to remember is that the current political environment has had a massive impact on the price of oil as you can see from the red triangle in the top-left of the chart where back a year ago the strategic petroleum reserve was raided and liquidated significantly into the open market and drove the price of oil down.
The market rebounded from the initial waves are revisited that important liquidation level turned prices away this April at $86-$87, right to the DAY's price level from the SPR liquidation level.
The market has memory, but we need to mark this info on our charts so we remember too. Clearly you can see this powerful impact on the market and with patience and risk management, you can take advantage of setups like these to make profits or avoid losses.
With the Presidential Election ongoing and tomorrow being the last day to vote, the market will begin to discount if Trump with will and encourage new supply of oil to help drive down the price further or will the shorts in oil turn and cover because the market doesn't break down fast enough?
There are always risks in trading and hopefully by pointing out the "KEY NEWS LEVELS" we can avoid getting blind-sided by our emotions of fear and greed.
There is a weekly uptrend in place from the low in September and if prices hold above $70, I expect continuation to the upside over the next 7 weeks.
If prices fall and hold under $70, I will stand aside and look to buy lower in the SPR refill level range near $65-$64 (vs $71.53 last).
I'll be in the Key Hidden Levels chat room discussing these charts and more every day.
Cheers,
Tim
3:21PM EST 11/4/2024
Bitcoin Bull Run Ignites: Eyeing New Highs Ahead of ElectionsOverview: Bitcoin (BTC) has recently demonstrated significant bullish momentum, breaking the $68,900 resistance level. This surge is supported by favorable financial news and the anticipation surrounding the U.S. presidential election scheduled for tomorrow.
Key Levels:
Entry Point: $68,900
Target 1 (T1): $75,146.69
Target 2 (T2): $84,392.46
Target 3 (T3): $92,059.49
Stop Loss: $66,500
Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending upwards, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 65, suggesting room for further upward movement before reaching overbought territory.
Volume: Increased trading volume aligns with the recent price surge, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Fundamental Factors: The upcoming U.S. presidential election has heightened market interest in Bitcoin, with both major candidates expressing favorable views towards cryptocurrency regulation. Additionally, significant inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been observed, indicating strong institutional support.
Conclusion: The confluence of technical indicators and positive fundamental developments suggests a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Traders should monitor the aforementioned target levels and adjust positions accordingly, keeping an eye on potential resistance as the market reacts to election outcomes.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
EURUSD - Pullback / Buy Opportunity With election volatility ahead, I’m adding small “bullets” to the third I still have in my EURUSD long last week. I expect dollar-selling going into Tuesday and with cut-bets on the table for this week’s Fed decision. This is a nice place to add longs (yellow circle). Target is 1.0960
$RBLX The Epic Failed Hindenburg ShortFor some time now Hindenburg has published reports about NYSE:RBLX poor financials and very suspect safety concerns regarding NYSE:RBLX and their users.
Time and time again Hindenburg has misled and proved incorrect on these allegations.
One of the article's they published as a safety concern for users of NYSE:RBLX was completely inaccurate with links that went to locked locations.
Here is the Link: x.com
As you can see, no one can enter the links provided. Hindenburg is manipulating the flow of information to profit. But we know better..
NYSE:RBLX is in the midst of an Epic Short Squeeze and Hindenburg will pay the price.
You thought NYSE:GME was something? Just wait..
Buy now and buy often. Load up on long call options with as much time as you can get. When NYSE:RBLX hits our projected target, you will be glad you did.
Hindenburg will not.
The Loss Effect: Why Traders Hold On To Losing Positions📍 In the realm of trading, the psychological weight of losses often outweighs the thrill of gains. This phenomenon, known as loss aversion , refers to the innate human tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains. Within the context of financial markets, this bias can lead traders to stubbornly cling to losing positions, driven by the hope that market conditions will eventually shift in their favor. Consequently, their focus often shifts away from the potential for profit to a preoccupation with preserving their existing capital.
📍 Reasons Traders Avoid Closing Losing Trades
Several psychological factors contribute to traders’ decisions to retain losing trades:
1. Emotional Attachment
Traders are not immune to the emotions that accompany financial decisions. When individuals invest in an asset, they often form an emotional bond with that investment. Experiencing a loss can feel like a personal defeat, stirring feelings of shame, frustration , and anger. This emotional attachment can cloud judgment and impede rational decision-making. Rather than assessing the asset’s current market value objectively, traders may cling to the hope that conditions will improve, in an effort to circumvent the distress associated with acknowledging a loss.
2. Fear of Realizing a Loss
The psychology of loss is complex, with many traders perceiving the act of realizing a loss as more painful than the prospect of missing out on potential gains. This fear can compel traders to hold on to losing positions, hoping that the market will rebound to their initial entry points. By postponing the realization of a loss, they believe they can mitigate its emotional impact. However, this paradoxical reasoning often leads to extended periods in losing positions, even as downward trends become increasingly pronounced.
3. Lack of Confidence in Their Strategy
Traders often rely on specific strategies or analyses when making investment decisions. When the market begins to turn against them, a sense of doubt regarding the validity of their strategy can emerge. This internal conflict can make it challenging for a trader to acknowledge a mistake. Instead of reevaluating their positions and accepting the reality of a loss, they may irrationally hold onto failing trades, hoping for an unexpected turnaround—an approach that typically exacerbates their situation.
4. Challenges with Objective Analysis
Emotional responses can significantly hinder traders’ ability to conduct objective analyses of their positions. Important data and market signals indicating a need to exit a position may be ignored, leading to cognitive dissonance. This disconnect between emotion and analysis often causes traders to remain in unprofitable trades far longer than warranted, despite clear evidence suggesting the necessity of a change in strategy.
5. Cognitive Distortions
Traders are susceptible to a variety of cognitive distortions that can cloud their judgment:
⚫️ Selective Attention: Many traders may emphasize their winning trades while minimizing the importance of their losses. This selective focus can result in a failure to adequately analyze losing positions, leading to the selection bias known as " cherry-picking ."
⚫️ Confirmation Bias: This cognitive bias leads traders to seek out and prioritize information that reaffirms their initial decisions, while disregarding contradictory evidence. As a result, they may grow increasingly reluctant to close losing positions, insisting on data that supports their original decision to invest.
📍 Conclusion: To Hold or Not to Hold Losing Positions?
Deciding whether to maintain or close a losing position ultimately hinges on one's tolerance for losses. If a stock continues to decline in value without signs of recovery, persisting in holding it may be misguided; in such cases, it may be more prudent to exit and then consider purchasing at a more favorable price. However, it is equally ill-advised to close positions at the slightest market correction. The crux of the matter lies in understanding the underlying reasons for the loss. If no fundamental issues exist and the downturn appears temporary—especially when the loss aligns with typical statistical drawdowns—there may be no need to exit the position prematurely. Ultimately, a balanced approach involving emotional detachment and a keen awareness of market dynamics can aid traders in making more informed and strategically sound decisions regarding their positions.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
BTC : Riding Asia Open Volume to the Golden Zone TargetOn the 8-hour chart, I’m targeting an entry to capture potential volume influx as the Asian markets open. I plan to take partial profits along the way, with a target to reach the $71,000 zone, which aligns with the golden Fibonacci retracement level.
Fundamental Context:
This setup is influenced by the buzz around the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election and speculation around Donald Trump’s potential reentry, possibly fueling a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. Given the high-impact events surrounding this period, I’m managing risk closely, aiming for strategic exits to maximize profitability within this volatile environment.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
