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Gold Consolidating Ahead of Next Move Gold Consolidating Ahead of Next Move – Is 3390 the Bull Target or a False Breakout Trap? 🧭 Fundamental Outlook Gold has entered a tight consolidation phase following a wave of high-impact macroeconomic events: The US House of Representatives has passed Trump's “Super Bill”, raising expectations of increased fiscal spending and long-term inflationary pressures. In theory, this is supportive of gold prices. However, strong NFP and Unemployment Rate figures released recently have reinforced dollar strength in the short term, suggesting the Fed may delay rate cuts → a temporary headwind for gold. With Independence Day in the US, liquidity across global markets is expected to drop, increasing the risk of false moves or stop-hunt volatility. 🟡 The lack of immediate upside doesn’t mean bullish momentum has disappeared. Price may simply be building energy before its next leg. 📉 Technical Overview – XAU/USD Gold has broken out of a minor descending trendline and is now testing a key supply zone around 3344–3345, which could determine the intraday trajectory. 🔍 Key Levels Resistance Zones: 3345 – 3362 – 3374 – 3388 – 3390 Support Zones: 3330 – 3312 – 3304 – 3302 – 3298 🟢 Bullish Scenarios (Buy Setups) 📍 Intraday Buy Zone: 3313 – 3311 Stop Loss: 3307 Take Profit: 3316 – 3320 – 3325 – 3330 – 3335 – 3340 – 3345 – 3350 📍 Deep Pullback Buy Zone: 3304 – 3302 Stop Loss: 3298 Take Profit: 3308 – 3312 – 3316 – 3320 – 3330 – 3340 These zones are ideal for trend-continuation entries, especially if supported by bullish candles or price action on lower timeframes. 🔴 Bearish Scenarios (Short-Term Only) 📍 Intraday Sell Zone: 3362 – 3364 Stop Loss: 3368 Take Profit: 3358 – 3354 – 3350 – 3346 – 3340 – 3335 – 3330 📍 High-Risk Sell Zone: 3388 – 3390 Stop Loss: 3394 Take Profit: 3384 – 3380 – 3376 – 3370 – 3365 – 3360 Bearish positions should be reserved for signs of exhaustion or rejection patterns at resistance levels. 🧠 Trading Bias for Today With limited liquidity due to the US holiday, price may remain trapped in a sideways range between 3320 and 3340. Traders should stay nimble and avoid overexposure. ✅ Primary bias: Buy dips near major support ⚠️ Alternative view: Only short if price confirms reversal at resistance 💬 What’s Your Take on Gold Today? Will gold break through the 3390 barrier this week? Or are we looking at one more dip before a true bullish continuation? 👇 Share your thoughts and trading ideas in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
PI – Consolidation and Shrinking VolatilitySince Tuesday, NASDAQ:PI has been trading within a tight range between the $0.47 support and the $0.50 resistance level. This sideways movement reflects a balance between buyers and sellers, with neither side showing enough strength to push the price in a clear direction. The market appears to be in a state of indecision, as participants wait for a fundamental or technical catalyst to spark a breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 36.18 and has remained relatively flat over the past few days. This indicates a lack of momentum and weak conviction among traders. When RSI trends sideways like this, it typically signals that market participants are staying on the sidelines, avoiding large positions until a clearer trend emerges. Additionally, the Average True Range (ATR) has dropped to 0.048, marking a 12% decline since Tuesday. This confirms the ongoing reduction in market volatility. A falling ATR suggests that price swings are narrowing, often preceding a significant breakout as the market builds up pressure. Taken together, the flat RSI and declining ATR paint a picture of a consolidating market. While NASDAQ:PI lacks strong directional momentum at the moment, these conditions often set the stage for a sharp move. Traders should keep a close eye on the $0.47–$0.50 range for signs of a breakout in either direction.
by biodunoladokun
Give me 3 reasons not to be bullish on SolanaSolana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) expanded from $396M on Dec 26, 2022 to $8.69B by July 4, 2025, a 2,094% increase (~22x growth) across 80 weeks . This translates to a weekly geometric growth multiplier of ~1.089, or an 8.9% compound weekly rate . This rapid TVL expansion reflects capital inflows, increased DeFi participation, and regained trust in Solana’s infrastructure following the FTX collapse. ———————————————— LST Ecosystem Expansion : Liquid staking derivatives (JitoSOL, mSOL) accounted for a significant share of inflows, as yield-seeking capital returned with Ethereum-style primitives on Solana. MEV Monetization & Compression Tech : Validator-side MEV solutions and data compression (via Firedancer and ZK-state) improved scalability and trust in Solana’s low-latency environment. Resurgence of DeFi-NFT Hybrids : Protocols like Tensor and HadeSwap blurred lines between DeFi and NFTs, generating sticky liquidity and reinforcing Solana’s unique narrative. Restored Institutional Confidence : Post-FTX reforms and a more diversified validator ecosystem helped re-attract institutional capital, supported by enhanced wallet infra (e.g., Backpack, Phantom) and custodianship. This pattern, paired with the geometric growth trend, suggests Solana’s DeFi ecosystem is entering a new structural bull phase, underpinned by both technical confirmation and fundamental evolution. Anyways, let me know in the comments 3 reasons not to be bullish on Solana as we speak. (PS: QC-resistant issues don’t apply only for Solana but for all major crypto assets!)
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by valtermedeiros
Soybean Breakout – Time to Steal Profits!🚨 "SOYBEAN HEIST ALERT: Bullish Loot Ahead! 🎯💰 (Thief Trading Strategy)" 🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Raiders! 🌟 "The vault is unlocked—time to plunder the 🌱🍃SOYBEAN CFD market! Here’s your master plan for a smooth heist." 🔎 TRADE SETUP (Thief Edition) Entry 📈: "Buy the dip or chase the breakout—bullish momentum is ripe for stealing!" Pro Tip: Use buy limits near 15-30min pullbacks (swing lows/highs) for optimal theft. Stop Loss 🛑: "Hide your loot!" Set SL at nearest 4H swing low (1030.00). Adjust based on your risk appetite. Target 🎯: 1085.0 — or escape early if bears ambush! ⚡ SCALPERS’ NOTE: "Only long scalps allowed! Rich? Raid now. Poor? Join swing thieves & trail your SL!" 🔥 WHY SOYBEAN? (Bullish Catalysts) Technicals + fundamentals align for a bullish heist. Check: COT reports, seasonals, macro trends, and intermarket signals (links below 👇). ⚠️ WARNING: NEWS = VOLATILITY Avoid new trades during major news. Trailing SLs = your escape rope! Lock profits before the cops (bears) arrive. 💎 BOOST THIS HEIST! "Smash 👍 LIKE, hit 🔔 FOLLOW, and share the loot! Your support fuels our next raid." 🎯 Final Tip: "Profit is yours—take it and vanish! 🏴‍☠️" 📢 Stay tuned for the next heist! "Market thieves never sleep…" 😉
SKILLING:SOYBEANLong
by Thief_Trader
Why is the 147k Beat in Payrolls Data Not as Strong as it Seems?Yesterday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report came in above expectations, but a closer look at the details reveals a less encouraging picture. Despite the headline beat, market reactions quickly faded. For instance, gold initially dropped from 3350 to 3311 in the first 15 minutes after the release but has since recovered more than 75% of that decline. So why is the June jobs report not as strong as it first appeared? According to the BLS report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 147k in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 106k. However, when breaking down the numbers, private payrolls rose by just 74k, well below expectations. Most of the gains came from government and healthcare hiring. Government jobs accounted for 73k new positions, and 63k of those came from the education sector alone. Some analysts suggest the high net hiring in education may be due more to a lack of firings, a consequence of a tight labor market in that sector. Meanwhile, the 59k increase in healthcare jobs is part of a long-term trend. Over the past two years, the U.S. has added an average of 70k healthcare jobs per month. This growth is largely driven by the needs of an aging population and reduced payrolls during and after the pandemic that have yet to fully recover. If you exclude government and healthcare hiring, U.S. payrolls increased by just 15k in June. The unemployment rate also came in better than expected, falling to 4.1% from 4.2%, while markets had anticipated a rise to 4.3%. However, this decline was driven by a drop in the labor force participation rate, which fell to 62.3% from 62.6% in just two months , a worrying sign that fewer people are actively participating in the labor market. In the first 15 minutes after the data came, gold fell to 3311 from 3350. In the following 18 hours, gold recaptures 85% of the loss. Gold is still over the broken bearish trendline in 1-H timeframe. With tariff deadline in 9th July and incoming 10-12 tariff letters coming in from Trump in the next few days, gold could have potential to go upwards with market understands this jobs data is not strong as it seems.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ftdsystem
PENGU's RSI Signals Possible Pullback AheadPENGU may be at risk of a short-term correction as buying pressure cools off. The RSI currently sits at above 70, placing the altcoin firmly in overbought territory. RSI values above 70 typically signals unsustainable momentum and hints at an upcoming pullback or consolidation phase. Trader are advised to watch for weakening momentum as buyers become exhausted. Once selloffs commence, the token's price could fall to $0.0037. On the other hand, if demand swells, the meme coin's price could reach $0.018.
by biodunoladokun
Alibaba (BABA) Shares Fall to Lowest Level in 2.5 MonthsAlibaba (BABA) Shares Fall to Lowest Level in 2.5 Months Yesterday, Alibaba (BABA) shares dropped to their lowest level since late April. The decline followed the company’s announcement of a planned bond issuance totalling approximately $1.53 billion, with a maturity date set for 2032. The funds will be used to support the development of Alibaba's cloud infrastructure and expansion of its international e-commerce business. The market’s negative reaction may stem from concerns over rising debt levels and the potential return on these investments. Technical Analysis of Alibaba (BABA) Share Price When analysing the price movements of BABA shares in 2025, two key trading ranges stand out: → $126–145: This range originates from the long bullish candle on 20 February, following the release of a strong quarterly report; → $96–103: This zone was established in late April, as supply and demand stabilised around the psychologically significant $100 level. The upper range has since acted as a resistance zone, with the price reversing from it in mid-May. The lower range has served as a support area, particularly in early April when the stock came under pressure after tariff-related headlines. The current price action is notable in that Alibaba shares have: → Broken through the June support level at approximately $111.92; → Formed a bearish A-B-C structure, marked by lower highs and lower lows. Using Fibonacci extension analysis, we can reasonably assume: → The $111.92 level is now likely to act as resistance; → The next potential target for the ongoing downtrend (leg C→D) lies at the 1 Fibonacci level ($100.55) — aligning closely with the previously identified support zone. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:BABA
by FXOpen
2
XRP DAILY CHART ANALYSISXRP DAILY CHART ANALYSIS 📈 🟩Green lines are “inside trendline” having last interactions with price. Price did a third touch on the bearish inside trend line yesterday 3rd July @ 2.3157 And current interaction with the bullish “inside trendline” today. Fundamentally, expect short term USD strength with positive US data as catalyst from yesterday’s release. Market could extend to closest support @2.1714 If bullish “inside trendline” is broken, we expect support and outer trendline (Black) third touch @2.0181. If there’s a strong bullish signal convicted to positive XRP or Crypto fundamentals, we expect a bullish move back to at least 2.4 Short term - Bearish 🟥 Medium to long term - Bullish 🟩
BYBIT:XRPUSD.PShort
by BigSwing007
S&P 500 Hit Record High Ahead of Holiday BreakS&P 500 Hit Record High Ahead of Holiday Break Today, financial markets in the United States are closed in observance of Independence Day. Investor sentiment was likely buoyed by the latest rally in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which set a new all-time high yesterday, surpassing 6,280. The bullish momentum has been driven by robust labour market data in the US. According to ForexFactory, analysts had anticipated a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%, but instead, it unexpectedly declined to 4.1%. Can the stock market continue to climb? Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart Analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)on 30 June, we observed the following: → An ascending channel was formed (indicated in blue); → A developing bullish impulse (marked with an orange line) suggested the price would move towards the upper boundary of the channel – a scenario that materialised with yesterday’s rally (as shown by arrow 1). However, from a price action perspective, the recent downward move (arrow 2) has now gained significance. It may indicate that sellers are becoming more active around the identified resistance level. Should the price decline towards the lower orange line, this could negate the current bullish impulse altogether, effectively reflecting a classic bearish engulfing pattern. Given the above, there is reason to believe that bears are attempting to regain control after the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) surged over 5% in the past 10 days. As such, a potential breakout below the orange line cannot be ruled out, with price action possibly targeting the median of the blue ascending channel. What happens next? The market’s trajectory will largely hinge on developments related to tariffs. Trade policy will remain in the spotlight next week, as key deadlines set by the White House approach — events that traders will be closely monitoring. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
EURJPY Weekly Analysis (MMC + SMC) - Trend Expansion + Target🧠 Contextual Overview: EURJPY has been on a strong long-term bullish rally, fueled by institutional demand and consistent volume expansion patterns. This pair is approaching a critical macro resistance/reversal zone around the 175–176 level, where historically large players have shown interest in redistributing or taking profit. This analysis uses the MMC (Market Mechanics Concept) integrated with SMC (Smart Money Concepts) to provide a complete perspective on price structure, order flow, and volume behavior. 📊 Structural Breakdown: 🔹 1. Volume Expansion as a Leading Indicator Volume precedes price — this is a foundational MMC principle. The recent aggressive impulse to the upside is backed by clear volume expansion visible on higher time frames. This type of movement indicates smart money accumulation and commitment, rather than retail-driven volatility. A key insight: Volume Expansion typically signals trend continuation, not reversal—unless a liquidity grab or divergence shows up in reversal zones. 🔹 2. Break of Structure (BOS) Confirms Trend Continuation A clear BOS occurred when price violated previous swing highs around the 165–167 range. This BOS suggests a new bullish leg is forming, confirming the market has transitioned from consolidation (accumulation) to distribution (markup phase). 🔹 3. Current Price Path: Heading into a Key Reversal Zone (175–176) This zone has been mapped based on previous supply imbalances and historical resistance. Price may tap into this zone before we see either: A clean continuation above (indicating absorption of supply), or A rejection or smart money sell-off pattern (distribution, divergence, or exhaustion candles). Institutions tend to execute significant moves in these areas — watch for liquidity sweep traps and break-of-structure (BOS) on lower timeframes for confirmation. 🧱 Support Zones & Safety Net: 🔸 Major Support: 155–157 Zone This is a historically significant demand block, respected multiple times since 2023. A drop into this region could offer a prime long-term swing entry, should price reject the reversal zone. Also acts as invalidity for current bullish structure. A weekly close below this would signal a potential trend shift or deeper correction. 📉 Technical Patterns & Confluences: Trendline Breakout + Retest occurred from 2024 into early 2025. This is a classic break-and-retest continuation pattern, confirming bullish interest from smart money. Price consolidated (reaccumulation) and exploded upward with volume expansion, aligning with Wyckoff theory’s markup phase. Strong candles with minimal upper wicks = clear sign of institutional commitment. 🎯 Trade Strategy & Scenarios: 🟢 Bullish Continuation Scenario: If price breaks above 176.000 with volume and closes weekly bullish, expect continuation toward 180.00+ in coming months. Watch for: Clean BOS above the reversal zone Volume expansion confirmation Retest of breakout level (176–174) for safe re-entry 🔴 Bearish Rejection Scenario: If price rejects the reversal zone with bearish engulfing or divergence, expect a retracement back toward 165–162 short-term, and possibly 157–155 long-term. Lower time frame structure shift (BOS to the downside) will confirm early exit from bulls or reversal setups for bears. 🧠 Psychological Perspective: Smart Money uses reversal zones to entice late buyers before triggering liquidity grabs. Reversal zones serve as liquidity magnets, often leading to false breakouts before true direction is revealed. Retail traders often buy into strength at these levels, providing liquidity for institutional exits. 📌 Summary: ✅ Trend: Strong bullish ✅ Structure: Clean BOS with volume confirmation ✅ Next Key Level: 175–176 (Reversal Zone) ✅ Strategy: Monitor for rejection/continuation; align with volume + structure ✅ Volume Behavior: Expansion supports trend continuation 🔖 Final Thoughts: The EURJPY pair presents a highly educational and strategic opportunity. Whether you trade intraday or swing, this zone (175–176) will define the market direction for the next few months. Use volume, structure shifts, and institutional behavior to guide your trades, not just candlestick patterns.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Maintain range fluctuations during the day?Gold has maintained a volatile pattern recently. As the US market is closed today for Independence Day, the market volatility is expected to be limited, but the volatile market will continue, but the volatility range may change. Yesterday's gold price fell mainly due to the news, and this decline usually does not last too long. From a technical point of view, gold prices are supported near 3310-3300, which is the key support level today. It is worth noting that on Wednesday, gold prices were under pressure in the 3340-3350 area, and on Thursday, prices formed support in this range, indicating that the area is forming a top-bottom conversion. Therefore, 3340-3350 has become an important pressure level today. It is expected to fluctuate in the 3300-3340/3350 range during the day. The impact of news on gold prices is usually short-term. When the fundamentals and technical directions are consistent, price fluctuations will be more obvious. When the two are inconsistent, price fluctuations will weaken, but will not change the technical trend. The rebound pattern established at the beginning of the week is still valid. After a short-term shock, gold prices are expected to re-stand above 3345 and continue to maintain the rebound trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
EURGBP 8H Analysis : Breakdown + Smart Money Structure + Target🧠 Phase 1: Arc Formation – Accumulation by Smart Money The arc (May to June) reflects an accumulation base where price made higher lows with consolidative wicks and slow momentum, ideal conditions for institutional orders to build long positions. Liquidity is swept below swing lows, stopping out early longs — this is classic smart money accumulation. Volume compression during the arc followed by expansion on breakout confirms smart interest. 🔑 Psychology: Retail was likely selling here due to lower highs, while smart money was accumulating quietly at the bottom of the arc. 🚀 Phase 2: Breakout & Rally to Previous Highs Price cleanly breaks above the arc’s neckline and previous resistance (labeled as Previous Target). Momentum accelerates rapidly toward the reversal zone, likely due to stop hunts and FOMO buyers entering after confirmation. Structure shifts bullish, creating strong impulsive candles — but these are often final exit points for smart money. 📌 Key Sign: Breakout aligns perfectly with market inefficiencies being filled, often a sign of a short-term top formation brewing. 🔄 Phase 3 : Reversal Zone – Distribution Phase Inside the Reversal Zone (0.8650–0.8680), price shows exhaustion with multiple upper wicks and slowing bullish momentum. Distribution signs: choppy movement, lower highs, and eventual breakdown. Retail is often caught entering longs here on confirmation, while institutions offload their positions. 🧠 MMC Insight: This is where Mind Market Curve transitions from bullish impulse to corrective leg down — phase of deception. 📉 Phase 4: Structure Breakdown & Bearish Market Behavior Price breaks through short-term higher low structure — confirmation of bearish intent. The formation of lower highs and lower lows marks the beginning of a bearish trend shift. Market is now targeting Major Support (0.8500–0.8520 zone), which is currently being tested. 🧭 If price breaks below 0.8500 with volume and aggression, next level is likely near 0.8430–0.8450. ⚖️ Current Price Location: Major Support Test We’re at a critical decision point. If support holds → expect a bounce to 0.8600–0.8620. If it breaks → expect continuation to next liquidity pool below 0.8450. This zone is where buyers and sellers will battle. Wait for: Bullish confirmation (reversal pattern / engulfing candle) to go long. Bearish breakout (close below zone + retest) to go short. 🔁 Summary of Scenarios Scenario Conditions Target ✅ Bullish Bounce Rejection at support with bullish engulfing/pin bar 0.8600–0.8620 ❌ Bearish Break Close below 0.8500 + retest as resistance 0.8430–0.8450 🔖 Educational Takeaway This chart teaches how to: Identify accumulation via arc and understand smart money behavior. Recognize false confirmation zones (where retail enters late). Understand structure shift as a trend reversal signal. Execute trades based on reaction zones, not emotions. If you follow MMC (Mind Market Curve), this is a textbook transition from: Accumulation → Expansion → Distribution → Breakdown
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY loses bulk of NFP-related gainsThe USD/JPY has given back a bulk of yesterday's NFP-driven gains. Although the data was not as strong as the headlines suggested, the fact that we saw decent moves in bond and equity markets suggests investors were overall impressed by the figures. So it seems the market is preparing itself for some more tariff-related volatility as we approach the 9 July deadline, when 'Liberation Day' tariffs will revert. Trump has suggested letters are being sent out to trading partners over the next few days, informing them of their new tariff rate. If you recall, during the worst of April's volatility, the likes of the franc, euro and yen were all outperforming. Could we see a similar pattern this time? Well, looking at the USD/JPY, traders have certainly sold into yesterday's rally. But we need a more decisive breakdown of support between 140.00-140.25 now to trigger some long side liquidation. Below this area, key support comes in around 142.50. Resistance comes in at 145.00, followed by 146.00. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
EURUSD 4H Structure Analysis | MMC Strategy + Channel + CurveIn this EURUSD 4-hour chart analysis using MMC (Market Mind Concept), we are observing a textbook rising channel structure accompanied by a black mind curve (evidence of psychological support behavior). Let's break it down: 📊 Structure Overview: Straight Ascending Channel: Price has been respecting a clean, straight rising channel, forming higher highs and higher lows over the past several weeks. This structure provides a controlled bullish bias, but we are approaching an inflection point. Black Mind Curve Support (Evidence 2): A curved trendline (Mind Curve) is providing dynamic support. This curve intersects with the lower boundary of the rising channel—creating a confluence zone, which is likely to act as strong short-term support or the base of a reversal. Major BOS (Break of Structure): A significant bullish BOS occurred earlier, confirming momentum strength. This previous break is acting as a reference point for bullish continuation scenarios. 📉 Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the channel and mind curve support, this would invalidate the current bullish channel structure. A clean breakout + retest below the support zone may invite strong selling pressure, targeting previous support zones around 1.1500 – 1.1350. 📈 Bullish Scenario: If the price holds above the mind curve and continues upward, we may see a breakout above the top of the channel. A confirmed breakout could send price toward the 1.1900 – 1.2000 resistance zone. Patience is key—wait for a confirmed breakout from the channel (either side) before engaging. ⏳ Strategy Outlook: ✅ Wait for channel breakout confirmation (up or down) ⚠️ Watch for fakeouts or liquidity grabs near channel boundaries 🔁 Mind Curve Support adds another layer of decision-making structure 🧠 Trade with the trend, but remain adaptable to shift if channel breaks 🔍 Summary: The EURUSD pair is in a decision-making zone—either we get a bullish continuation breakout, or the structure fails and we flip into a bearish correction. The confluence of the straight channel and mind curve makes this setup high-quality for both trend traders and breakout traders.
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY 4-Hour Technical Analysis (Smart Money Concept Breakdown)📈 Overall Market Structure Overview: The chart reflects a multi-phase Smart Money playbook, consisting of: Bullish channel structure Breakout followed by liquidity sweep Supply zone flip to demand Price mitigation and structure shift Anticipated reaction zone for upcoming move 🔎 Phase-by-Phase Analysis: 🧱 1. Ascending Channel Formation Price was moving upward in a controlled bullish ascending channel, suggesting institutional accumulation with planned distribution above highs. The channel breakout was the first significant liquidity event, where early breakout traders were baited. 💧 2. Fakeout and Supply Interchange into Demand (Ellipse Zone) Once the channel broke, price sharply reversed, retracing into a previous supply zone. However, institutions defended this zone, flipping it into a demand area. This behavior, marked with the blue ellipse, signals “Supply Interchange in Demand” – a core SMC concept. Here, orders were absorbed Liquidity was trapped below A bullish push confirmed institutional intent 🎯 3. Previous Target Hit – Completion of Bullish Leg Price made a strong rally from the demand zone, hitting the previous target near 147–148 zone. This bullish leg created a Major Break of Structure (BOS) confirming bullish dominance at that phase. ⚠️ 4. Distribution Begins: Shift in Momentum After reaching the Major BOS area, price failed to hold higher levels. A decline followed, indicating distribution by smart money. The reaction was sharp and consistent, creating lower highs, signaling weakness. 🔄 5. Minor CHoCH Formation – Early Reversal Signal A Minor Change of Character (CHoCH) occurred around the 144.000–143.000 area. This is a key transition, where smart money transitions from bullish intent to potential bearish delivery. 📦 6. Next Target Zone – Bullish POI (Point of Interest) The chart identifies a next target demand zone around 141.800–141.200, marked in green. This zone: Holds unmitigated demand Sits below a recent liquidity pool Aligns with past support This is where Smart Money could re-enter, offering a long opportunity if a bullish CHoCH or BOS forms from that zone. 📊 Trade Scenarios & Forecast: 🔻 Bearish Short-Term Play (Sell Setup): If price respects current resistance (144.500–145), and a lower high forms: Short entry opportunity Target: 142.000–141.200 demand zone Confirmation: Strong bearish candle, CHoCH below minor support 🔺 Bullish Reversal Play (Buy Setup): At the demand zone: Look for bullish reaction + CHoCH or BOS Long entry potential Target: Retest of 144.000 or even 147.000 if liquidity allows 🔐 Smart Money Tactics in Play: Liquidity Engineering: Price trapped both bulls (at highs) and bears (below ellipse zone) Supply into Demand Flip: A classic trap where supply becomes a launchpad for bullish delivery Minor CHoCH: Early signal of intent change Next POI (Point of Interest): Potential reaccumulation zone below major liquidity grab 🧠 Educational Takeaway: This analysis illustrates: Why breakouts are often traps without confirmation How to identify real institutional zones The role of CHoCH/BOS in planning ahead Importance of waiting for price to come to your levels, not chasing ⚠️ Risk & Caution: News catalysts can cause deviation from technical levels Always use stop loss and proper risk management SMC is about patience and precision, not prediction ✅ Summary: USDJPY is showing early signs of a smart money distribution and a potential pullback toward demand. Watch closely for confirmation at the key zone (141.800–141.200) before engaging long. Until then, short setups on rallies may be favorable.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
1
XAUUSD Consolidates Below Resistance – A Breakout Imminent?On the 4-hour timeframe (H4), XAUUSD is clearly consolidating just below the key resistance zone near $3,366, forming higher lows and lower highs within a tightening range highlighted by the shaded area. 1. Key Price Action Highlights Price has been forming higher lows, suggesting growing bullish momentum. The $3,366 resistance remains intact – a breakout above this level could confirm bullish continuation. A visible double bottom (W pattern) formed around June 28 hints at a strong technical rebound after a correction phase. 2. Important Support and Resistance Levels Price Level Significance $3,366 – $3,380 Major resistance zone – likely breakout target $3,300 Key near-term support where price recently bounced $3,242 Deeper support – a breakdown here could confirm bearish reversal 3. Suggested Trading Strategy Buy on breakout above $3,366 with strong volume and clear confirmation (e.g., a large-bodied candle closing above resistance). Consider buying on a pullback to the $3,320 – $3,300 zone for better risk-reward. Stay cautious if price breaks below $3,300 – this could signal a bearish shift in momentum. Gold is currently in a tight consolidation phase under major resistance, with bullish structure still intact. A breakout above $3,366 could trigger a sharp move upward. Until then, traders should monitor the lower boundaries for potential pullbacks or invalidation signals.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
3