PLTR WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (07/28/2025)
**🚀 PLTR WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (07/28/2025) 🚀**
**Momentum is 🔥 but Volume is the Missing Ingredient**
---
📈 **Momentum Snapshot:**
* **Daily RSI:** 71.9 ⬆️ (🚨 Overbought but still rising)
* **Weekly RSI:** 76.7 ⬆️ (📢 Clear Bullish Strength)
➡️ *Strong upside pressure, but entering the overbought zone*
📉 **Volume Insight:**
* Weekly Volume = **0.8x last week**
⚠️ *Weak institutional conviction during the breakout = yellow flag*
🔍 **Options Flow Check:**
* **Call/Put Ratio:** 1.09 = *Neutral*
➡️ Balanced flow = *no aggressive buying yet*
🌪️ **Volatility Environment:**
* **VIX = 15.4**
✅ Favorable for directional trades — low IV supports premium growth
---
📊 **Model Consensus Recap:**
✅ Bullish RSI momentum (unanimous)
✅ Volatility ideal for long calls
⚠️ Volume flagged as a concern by some models
📌 Final stance: **MODERATE BULLISH**
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💥 **RECOMMENDED TRADE SETUP (Confidence: 65%)**
🎯 **Play:** Buy CALL Option
* **Strike:** \$167.50
* **Expiry:** Aug 1, 2025
* **Entry Price:** \~\$0.74
* **Profit Target:** \$1.48 (🟢 2x return)
* **Stop Loss:** \$0.37 (🔻-50%)
📆 **Entry Timing:** Market Open Monday
📦 **Size:** 1 Contract
---
⚠️ **Key Risks to Watch:**
* 📉 Weak volume = possible consolidation before next leg up
* ⏳ Premium decay risk into expiry
* 📊 No strong institutional footprint = stay nimble
---
📌 **JSON FORMAT TRADE DETAILS (Automation Ready):**
```json
{
"instrument": "PLTR",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 167.50,
"expiry": "2025-08-01",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 1.48,
"stop_loss": 0.37,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.74,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-07-28 10:13:40 EDT"
}
```
---
🔥 TL;DR:
* Momentum is undeniable ✅
* Volume = suspect 🟡
* VIX = Green light for directional play ✅
💬 **\ NASDAQ:PLTR Bulls, are you ready or waiting for volume confirmation?**
\#PLTR #OptionsTrading #BullishSetup #UnusualOptions #MomentumPlay #TradingView #StockMarket
Fundamental Analysis
SI1!: Silver Demand Zone: Possible Bullish ContinuationI am currently observing a potential long-term continuation on SI1! Silver (XAG/USD), as the Commitment of Traders (COT) data indicates an increase in positions from both commercial and non-commercial traders. The price is approaching a demand zone on the daily chart, suggesting a possible bullish move.
The recent price action originated from an initial spike in the monthly supply zone, but there’s a possibility that the price could continue to rise further before reaching the next supply zone where a reversal might occur. Given the daily timeframe, I view this setup as suitable for a scalp trade. In my opinion, this presents an opportunity for short-term traders to capitalize on the potential upward movement.
✅ Please share your thoughts about SI1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
AUD/JPY: Fading the Rally at a Major Resistance ZoneWhile AUD/JPY has been in a clear uptrend, the rally is now approaching a significant technical ceiling where sellers have previously stepped in. We see a compelling opportunity for a counter-trend short, betting that this resistance level will hold and that the current bullish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion.
This trade is for those watching for a market turn, offering a well-defined risk-to-reward setup for a swing position.
🤔 The "Why" Behind the Short Setup
📰 The Fundamental Risk
The Australian Dollar is a "risk-on" currency, meaning it performs well when global markets are optimistic. The Japanese Yen, however, is a classic "safe-haven" asset that strengthens during times of uncertainty. With the upcoming high-impact Australian CPI data, any sign of economic weakness could disappoint the market, increase pressure on the RBA, and trigger a "risk-off" move that would benefit the Yen and send AUD/JPY lower.
📊 The Technical Ceiling
The chart tells a clear story. The price is currently testing a major resistance zone. Attempting to short near a strong ceiling like this provides a strategic entry to capture a potential trend reversal. We are essentially betting that the trend's multi-week momentum will stall and reverse from this key technical juncture.
✅ The High-Clarity SHORT Trade Setup
📉 Pair: AUD/JPY
👉 Direction: Short
⛔️ Entry: 96.716
🎯 Take Profit: 92.080
🛑 Stop Loss: 98.907
Rationale: This setup plays for a significant swing move. The wide stop loss is designed to withstand volatility from news events, while the deep take profit targets a full reversal back to major support levels seen earlier in the year.
"XAU/USD Hits Major Demand – Is a Relief Rally Brewing?"🟡 XAU/USD (Gold) – Demand Zone Rejection in Play | Bullish Correction Ahead?
Timeframe: 30-Minute | Date: July 25, 2025
Created by: AllyPipsExpert
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud, BOS (Break of Structure), Dynamic S/R, Trendlines
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🔍 Technical Analysis & Key Insights:
🔸 1. Market Recap – Distribution & Downtrend Confirmation:
After the Break of Structure (BOS) near 3385, gold confirmed a bearish reversal following the distribution phase at the top resistance zone around 3445–3460.
Bearish momentum was sustained by a descending trendline, paired with a bearish Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) crossover.
🔸 2. Major Zone Tagged – Key Demand Area Tested:
Price has now reached the critical demand block at 3320–3340, a zone that previously initiated bullish impulse on July 18–19.
The current bullish projection (in blue) reflects potential short-term recovery or correction phase, following oversold conditions and historical support strength.
🔸 3. Bullish Reversal Potential – Short-Term Retracement?
The blue arrow reflects a likely bullish retracement toward 3360–3380, aligning with trendline retest and potential Kumo rejection.
Expect sellers to re-enter if price retests former BOS/imbalance zone, creating scalp or swing sell setups on confirmation.
---
🔧 Confluences & Technical Highlights:
Confluence Point Description
Demand Zone Strong previous accumulation at 3320–3340
BOS Retest Area Key liquidity level now acting as resistance
Ichimoku Cloud Price below cloud = bearish bias maintained
Descending Trendline Reinforces bearish structure unless broken
Price Action Rejection wick at demand + potential short squeeze
---
🎯 Trade Outlook:
🧭 Bias: Short-Term Bullish Rebound → Long-Term Bearish Continuation
🟩 Support: 3320 – 3340
🟥 Resistance: 3360 – 3385 (BOS & Trendline zone)
🔁 Scenario: Bounce → Retest → Continuation lower (unless breakout confirmed)
---
📘 Why This Chart Could Be Featured:
✅ Multi-layered Analysis: BOS, zones, cloud, price action, and psychological zones used together.
✅ Forward-Looking: Projects the next logical market reaction instead of just explaining the past.
✅ Clean, Structured, Educational: Layout and visuals guide the viewer through logical trade steps.
✅ Value-Packed: Provides actionable levels and flexible scenarios — helpful to traders of all levels.
Very important Economic Calendar 28.07–01.08: FOMC, BTC, tariffsThis Week (July 28 – August 1) — the final week of the month is packed with key events.
Save this post and forward it to 3 friends 😉
📋 High volatility ahead — as the Fed’s key "threelemma" (inflation, labor market, tariffs) comes into focus.
Several important macro releases are scheduled — each one matters on its own, but combined, they can move markets sharply.
🗓 Monday (July 28)
▪️ 12:30 UTC – QRA (Part 1): upcoming US Treasury borrowing needs
▪️ 16:00 UTC – 2Y & 5Y bond auctions – key indicator of market expectations ahead of FOMC
🔗 Strong demand = stronger rate cut expectations
🗓 Tuesday (July 29)
▪️ 12:30 UTC – US GDP (Q2 estimate)
▪️ 16:00 UTC – 7Y bond auction
🗓 Wednesday (July 30)
▪️ 12:15 UTC – ADP employment report – early signal ahead of NFP
▪️ 12:30 UTC – QRA (Part 2): breakdown of Treasury borrowing
▪️ 18:00 UTC – FOMC rate decision (no change expected – 4.5%) + Powell’s press conference
🗓 Thursday (July 31)
▪️ 12:30 UTC – PCE inflation (June) – Fed’s favorite inflation gauge
🗓 Friday (August 1)
▪️ 12:30 UTC – Nonfarm Payrolls (employment)
▪️ 13:00 UTC – ISM Manufacturing Index (July)
▪️ 13:00 UTC – Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
▪️ All day – July auto sales data
🚨 LIBERATION DAY 2.0
Potentially the most impactful event of the week: the Trump administration will begin sending “tariff letters” to ~200 countries.
This marks the end of the temporary tariff relief (April 8 – August 1).
Markets expect a new wave of global trade tension — timing is still uncertain.
💡 Summary:
Every day brings a new potential driver.
Markets are nervous and highly reactive — sharp moves are likely...
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently being held above $117K, but Wednesday and Friday bring high risk of "news bombs".
7/28/25 - $deck - De risked, a few ways to play7/28/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DECK
De risked, a few ways to play
- mid teens PE
- 2 brands hitting on all strides (pun intended)
- great result, everyone offsides
- the action you're seeing here is MM re-adjusting post pop
- can buy spot/ sell covered calls for healthy mid 40s IV and roll
- my sense is sub $110 you are getting almost a simple play into YE and anything lower is increasing value (mid singles FCF yield growing DD, "yes please")
- so yeah, i like NASDAQ:LULU b/c of the google trends and valuation etc. etc. (go check that one out before tradingview removes it a third time)
- but this one back in the sub $115 zone is comfy like an (h)ugg
V
#USDJPY: Swing Buy Almost +2000 Pips! Dear Traders,
The USDJPY currency pair appears to be in an accumulation phase at the moment, as evidenced by the lack of significant price movement throughout the current week. Several factors contribute to this trend.
Firstly, several significant economic events are scheduled for this week, particularly tomorrow and Friday. These developments will have substantial implications for the future trajectory of the USDJPY pair. Consequently, there’s a possibility that the price may experience a decline before initiating a bullish trend. We’ve recently seen a strong bullish candle, which suggests a strong bullish move in the coming weeks. Additionally, the strong USD could continue rising, while the JPY is dropping.
Secondly, there are two primary areas where the price could reverse its course. The extent to which the USD reacts to the economic data will indicate potential reversal zones.
It’s crucial to conduct your own analysis before making any financial decisions. This chart should be used solely for educational purposes and does not guarantee any specific outcome.
Regarding the stop loss, as this is a swing trade, it’s advisable to employ a larger stop loss if the price reaches entry zones. The take profit level can be determined based on your entry type and analysis.
We wish you the best of luck in your trading endeavours and emphasise the importance of trading safely.
Please share this analysis with others through likes, comments, and social media platforms. If you have any questions or require further assistance, don’t hesitate to comment below. We’re here to provide support.
Team Setupsfx_
❤️🚀
Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Central Bank Watch: Key Week in MarketsCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME_MINI:MES1! NYMEX:CL1!
This is a significant week in terms of macroeconomic headlines, key data releases, central bank decisions, and major trade policy developments. We get numbers for growth, inflation and decision and insights into monetary policy. Combining this with ongoing trade policy developments, we have a key week which may shape how the rest of the year unfolds.
Below is a consolidated summary of the latest trade negotiations, scheduled economic releases, and policy outlooks.
US - EU Trade Deal:
• US–EU Tariffs: The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium with a new quota system.
• Exemptions: Zero-for-zero tariffs agreed for agriculture, aircraft parts, and chemicals; aircraft exports are temporarily exempt.
• EU Commitments: The EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy, mainly LNG.
• Agriculture: The EU will lower tariffs on many US agricultural goods, though not comprehensively.
• Political Reactions: EU leaders are mixed, Germany and the Netherlands praised the deal, France called it unbalanced, and Hungary viewed it unfavorably.
• The deal is not final until it is ratified by all EU national parliaments and the EU Parliament.
China Talks: US and China expected to extend their trade truce by 90 days. US-China meeting expected in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday. Trump to freeze export controls to secure a deal. A group of US executives will visit China for trade discussions, organized by the US-China Business Council.
South Korea Trade Talks: Korea proposes a shipbuilding partnership with the US and is preparing a trade package.
UK–US Relations: PM Starmer and Trump to meet in Scotland to discuss the UK–US trade deal implementation, Middle East ceasefire, and pressure on Russia.
Thus far, the US has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and The EU. Trade delegations are working to finalize deals with China, Mexico, Canada
Key Economic Data Releases:
Monday: Treasury refunding financing estimates.
Supply: 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auction, 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday: US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Opening (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Australian CPI Q2
Supply: 7-Year Note Auction
Wednesday: German GDP Q2, EUR GDP Q2, US ADP Non-farm Employment, US GDP Q2, Crude Oil Inventories, Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement, Monterey Policy Report, BoC Press Conference
US: Fed Interest Rate Decision,FOMC Statement, Fed Press Conference.
Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement
Thursday: EU Unemployment (Jun), US PCE & Core PCE Price Index (Jun)
Japan: BoJ Press Conference
Friday: EU CPI, US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Michigan 1-Year & 5-Year Inflation Expectations.
It is also a busy earnings week. See here for a complete earnings schedule .
Markets are interpreting trade deals as positive news thus far. The dollar is strengthening.
As we previously mentioned, we anticipate no rate cuts this year as economic data proves to be resilient and inflation largely under control. WSJ also posted an article stating that most tariffs costs are being absorbed by companies due to weaker pricing power. We previously wrote about this on our blog: “ In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure.
So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies must start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation.”
In our view, the US dollar has a higher probability to rally in the short-term i.e., Q3 as markets re-align FX rate differentials. Bond yields stabilize, Equities continue pushing higher, while Gold retraces as previously mentioned. This in our view, is what investors and participants refer to as the Goldilocks scenario. If this plays out as expected we anticipate continued strength with AI, tech, energy and defense sectors outperforming into mid- 2026.
Institutional View: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley also sees no rate cuts in 2025, despite market pricing for two 25 bps cuts. They forecast more aggressive cuts in 2026 due to:
• Tariff-related inflation emerging before labor market deterioration
• Slowing US growth, as fiscal support fades
• Impact of tighter immigration policy and global trade realignment
That said, MS continues to cite longer-term risks to the dollar, including:
• Twin deficits (fiscal + current account)
• Ongoing debate around USD’s safe haven status
• USD hedging activity picking up by international investors
• Strained credibility of the Fed due to tension between Fed Chair and the US Administration
How Fed policy evolves in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will depend heavily on the incoming Fed Chair nominee, who is expected to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026. This nomination could significantly influence future policy direction around growth and inflation targets.
Australian dollar down, eyes US GDP, Australian CPIThe Australian dollar is down for a third straight trading day. In the North American session, the US dollar has posted gains against most of the major currencies, including the Aussie. The greenback received a boost after the US and the EU reached a framework trade agreement after protracted negotiations.
The data calendar is bare on Monday, with no events out of the US or Australia. Things get very busy on Wednesday, with Australian inflation, US GDP and the Federal Reserve rate decision.
Even with no US releases, the US dollar has posted gains against most of the major currencies, including the Aussie. The greenback received a boost after the US and the EU reached a framework trade agreement after protracted negotiations.
President Trump had threatened to impose 30% tariffs on European goods if a deal was not reached by Aug. 1. With the deal, a nasty trade war between the world's two largest economies has been avoided and the US will tariff most EU products at 15%.
The deal with the EU comes on the heels of a similar agreement with Japan, bringing a sigh of relief from the financial markets that have been worried about the economic fallout from Trump's tariff policy. The agreements remove a great deal of uncertainty and investors are hopeful that the US and Chinese negotiators will wrap up their talks with an agreement in hand.
The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and is virtually certain to maintain interest rates for a fifth straight meeting. It will be interesting to see if President Trump, who has been sharply critical of Fed policy, reacts to the decision. The money markets are expecting at least one cut before the end of the year, with the money markets pricing in a 61% likelihood a cut in September, according to FedWatch's CME.
7/28/25 - $pltr - Profit taking into print7/28/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PLTR
Profit taking into print
- no idea what print brings
- but mgmt have been sell-only
- valuation is what it is... inexplicable by anyone
- i'd not be surprised to see anything happen on the result
- but into result, big holders (read: not you) are likely going to see some profit taking/ risk mgmt given tape, outperformance
- could be a good hedge against other risk-on
- and if tape does see risk off, -ve gamma/ reflexivity largest here
V
ICT CONCEPT OF LOOKING FOR THE FIRST FAIR VALUE GAP AFTER 9:30 This was my short idea that turned out profitable today with an 8.5RR. My bias was bearish, and once I noticed bullish PD arrays failing, I waited until 9:30 local NY time to look for the first FVG after that. I identified a SIBI with a 1-minute bearish order block after 9:30. I used the SIBI as an entry point for a sell, with my take profit set at a low from last week's New York trading session.
Gold weekly chart with both buy and sell entriesAnalysis of the Buy Entry: 2350/52
This level has been chosen as a potential long entry point due to a confluence of several technical factors.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) - Discount Zone: The chart has a "Premium - Discount" range drawn over the recent downward price leg. The equilibrium (EQ) level is marked in the middle. According to SMC principles, traders look to buy assets at a "discount" (below the 50% EQ level) and sell at a "premium" (above the EQ level). Your buy entry at 2350/52 is located deep within the discount zone, making it an attractive price from this perspective.
Key Horizontal Support Level: The 2350 price is a significant psychological and technical level. Looking to the left of the chart, this area has previously acted as both support and resistance. By placing a buy order here, you are anticipating that this historical support level will hold again and cause price to bounce.
Potential Mean Reversion: At the point of entry, the price is significantly extended below the moving averages (the thin red, orange, and green lines). This can sometimes indicate an "oversold" condition in the short term, increasing the probability of a corrective bounce back up towards the moving averages (the "mean").
In summary, the buy entry is a calculated risk, betting on a bounce from a confluence of a deep discount price, a strong historical support level, and an oversold condition.
Analysis of the Sell Level: 2328
This level is critically important and likely serves two potential purposes: as a stop-loss for the buy trade, or as a trigger for a new short (sell) position.
Breakdown of Major Support: The chart highlights a significant support zone (the thick blue/grey box) roughly between 2330 and 2334. Your sell level at 2328 is placed just below this entire support structure and also below the most recent swing low. A price break below 2328 would signify a failure of this support, confirming that sellers are still in firm control.
Confirmation of Bearish Trend Continuation: In a downtrend, the price makes a series of lower highs and lower lows. A move down to 2328 would create a new lower low, reinforcing the bearish market structure and suggesting that the price is likely to continue much lower. This makes it an ideal place to exit a long position (cut losses) or to initiate a new short position to follow the dominant trend.
Order Flow and Volume Clues:
The note "Delta Volume?" next to this level suggests you are looking for confirmation from order flow data. A strong negative delta (more aggressive sellers than buyers) as the price breaks 2328 would provide strong confirmation for a short trade.
The label "LVN 2334.86" indicates a Low-Volume Node from a volume profile analysis. Price tends to move very quickly through these areas of low liquidity. By placing the sell level below the LVN and the support zone, you are anticipating an acceleration or a "flush" downwards once these key levels are breached.
In summary, the 2328 level is the invalidation point for the bullish "bounce" idea. If the price reaches this level, the reasons for buying are no longer valid, and the evidence strongly points towards a continuation of the downtrend.
Overall Strategy
The plan is to:
Enter a counter-trend long at 2350/52, anticipating a bounce from a strong support and discount zone.
Define risk by placing a stop-loss just below the key support structure at 2328.
Potentially use the 2328 level as a trigger to close the long and open a new short position to trade with the dominant bearish trend if the support level fails.
The correction is quite surprise. What direction for GOLD price?✏️Quite surprised with the adjustment of gold at the end of the previous trading week. The rising price channel is still holding around the lower border of the price channel around 3316. A liquidity sweep and candle wick removal in this area is considered a good buying opportunity.
If h1 closes below this border, limit trading BUY signals until the bottom support of 3286. When the price can close the candle below 3316, gold will trade in a wide range and there is no main trend dominating the market.
📉 Key Levels
Support: 3316-3286
Resistance: 3372-3400-3418
Buy trigger: Reject and Trading above 3316
BUY DCA Break 3372
Target: 3400
SELL Trigger: Break bellow and Retest 3416
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
EURUSD at Make-or-Break Zone: Time to Short?EURUSD – Key Data Out Today, Short Setup Confirmed?
Today, several important economic indexes were released for both the Euro(EUR) and the Dollar(USD) . Let’s break them down in a simple way:
Eurozone PMI Data: Mixed to Weak
France:
Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 (slightly lower than forecast)
Services PMI : 49.7 (flat, but below 50 = contraction)
Germany:
Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 (weaker than expected)
Services PMI : 50.1(slightly expansionary)
Eurozone Overall:
Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (still below 50)
Services PMI : 51.2 (slightly stronger than forecast)
ECB left the Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 2.15% , which was widely expected.
U.S. Data( TVC:DXY ): Strong and Surprising
Unemployment Claims: 217K (better than expected 227K)
Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (below forecast of 52.7 – a negative surprise)
Services PMI: 55.2 (well above forecast and previous – bullish for USD)
Interpretation :
The Eurozone's growth remains sluggish, especially in France and Germany.
Despite a drop in U.S. manufacturing, the services sector remains strong, and unemployment data confirms labor market resilience.
This mixed picture slightly tilts the balance in favor of the U.S. dollar, especially as the ECB remains on hold while the Fed may still consider being restrictive.
Bias: Short EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD )
Fundamentals support a Short position in EURUSD, in line with the current technical setup.
---------------------------------
Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour time frame to find the best Short position .
EURUSD is currently trading in an Ascending Channel and at a Heavy Resistance zone($1.1845-$1.1602) .
Also, in terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that EURUSD is completing a microwave 5 of the main wave 5 .
One of the most important supports ahead for EURUSD could be the 100_SMA(4-hour TF) .
If the currently 4-hour candlestick forms a Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern , it is a better sign for EURUSD to fall .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect EURUSD to decline to at least $1.169 AFTER breaking the lower line of the ascending channel .
Second Target: Support zone($1.1642-$1.158) and Monthly Pivot Point.
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $1.1850
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
HINDUSTAN UNILEVERHindustan Unilever Ltd. is India’s leading fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company, with a portfolio spanning personal care, home care, foods, and beverages. Backed by strong brand equity, extensive distribution, and consistent innovation, the company maintains dominant market share across categories like soaps, shampoos, detergents, tea, and ice creams. The stock is currently trading at ₹2441.
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. – FY22–FY25 Snapshot
Sales – ₹52,446 Cr → ₹56,370 Cr → ₹59,625 Cr → ₹63,180 Cr – Steady topline growth driven by volume and premiumization
Net Profit – ₹9,846 Cr → ₹10,340 Cr → ₹10,790 Cr → ₹11,270 Cr – Margins stable across business lines with cost leverage
Order Book – Moderate → Moderate → Strong → Strong – Strong urban retail and rural penetration continuing Dividend Yield (%) – 1.43% → 1.48% → 1.52% → 1.57% – Consistent payouts reflecting robust free cash flows Operating Performance – Strong → Strong → Strong → Strong – Operational discipline and category leadership Equity Capital – ₹234.96 Cr (constant) – No dilution Total Debt – ₹0 Cr (debt-free) – Fully equity-funded operations
Total Liabilities – ₹12,740 Cr → ₹13,180 Cr → ₹13,560 Cr → ₹13,970 Cr – Stable and aligned with scale
Fixed Assets – ₹3,985 Cr → ₹4,100 Cr → ₹4,240 Cr → ₹4,390 Cr – Modest capex focused on automation and digitization
Latest Highlights FY25 net profit rose 4.4% YoY to ₹11,270 Cr; revenue grew 5.9% to ₹63,180 Cr EPS: ₹48.00 | EBITDA Margin: 24.2% | Net Margin: 17.83% Return on Equity: 22.44% | Return on Assets: 17.15% Promoter holding: 61.90% | Dividend Yield: 1.57% Premium personal care and food innovations led category outperformance Expansion in digital-first channels and rural activation remained strong
Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends Promoter holding stands high at 61.90%, with no pledging or dilution. FIIs and DIIs maintain steady positions given HUL’s status as a portfolio staple. Mutual fund holdings are concentrated in consumption and defensives, and delivery data reflects sustained long-term holding.
Business Growth Verdict Yes, Hindustan Unilever continues to demonstrate category leadership and resilience Margins and cash flows are consistently strong with minimal volatility Debt-free operations underscore financial strength Capex remains targeted, driving process and product innovation
Company Guidance Management expects low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth in FY26, led by continued premiumization, cost optimization, and digital outreach initiatives.
Final Investment Verdict Hindustan Unilever Ltd. remains one of India’s most durable compounders in the FMCG sector. With iconic brands, robust financials, and operational excellence, the company continues to deliver steady returns for long-term investors. Its balance sheet strength, innovation-led strategy, and defensive positioning make it ideal for sustained accumulation in consumption-focused portfolios.
Report - 28 jully, 2025Executive Summary
In a historic move to defuse transatlantic trade tensions, the United States and the European Union have struck a landmark agreement imposing a 15% blanket tariff on EU goods. The deal, brokered between President Trump and EC President Ursula von der Leyen, includes sweeping European commitments to increase purchases of American energy and military equipment—amounting to more than $1.35 trillion. This not only averts a trade war but realigns fiscal, defense, and industrial policy across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Germany will escape EU sanction for deficit overruns due to elevated defense spending, and China has intensified its diplomatic push to lead AI governance, openly challenging U.S. technological hegemony.
These developments unfold amid a broader recalibration of global capital flows, with Chinese investors pouring record funds into Hong Kong equities, Brazil doubling down on BRICS despite tariff threats, and private equity investors increasingly opting for liquidity over continuation vehicles. All these signals point to a shifting world order, where economic fragmentation, tech rivalry, and military investment dominate the strategic calculus.
Market Reactions
Markets have reacted with cautious optimism. The resolution of the US-EU dispute has removed one of the most immediate risks to global trade, stabilizing risk sentiment. Equities across developed markets are firmer, while defense, energy, and industrial stocks in the U.S. have caught a fresh bid. European auto and export sectors remain under scrutiny given the tariff imposition, despite the broader stability.
The dollar softened slightly on expectations that the trade deal will reduce the likelihood of retaliatory disruptions, even as tensions over chip tariffs and Brazil’s alignment with BRICS persist. Gold briefly rallied but then settled as inflation expectations were tempered by diplomatic de-escalation. Oil prices remain subdued as demand signals remain weak despite energy reordering.
Fiscal and Political Implications
The US-EU agreement marks a major geopolitical win for Trump. The EU's commitment to spend $750 billion on U.S. energy and $600 billion on military procurement illustrates a fundamental pivot in the bloc’s external policy alignment. Politically, this underscores Washington’s ability to extract economic concessions under threat of tariffs—further validating Trump’s unilateralist negotiation style.
Germany’s exemption from EU deficit procedures further highlights Brussels’ strategic flexibility in an era where defense is taking precedence over fiscal austerity. Berlin will be allowed to run a deficit of 3.3% of GDP in 2025, thanks to a “national escape clause” invoked to cover expanded defense spending. This sets a precedent for other member states to follow suit, potentially unleashing a wave of fiscally supported rearmament across the EU.
Meanwhile, China's unveiling of a 13-point AI governance plan signals an emerging regulatory bifurcation in global technology. The push for a UN-backed AI governance body—and the positioning of its open-source models for Global South collaboration—challenges U.S. regulatory primacy and may spark a new front in the AI cold war.
Strategic Forecasts
The medium-term outlook is increasingly defined by strategic spending, tech sovereignty, and the weaponization of trade. The U.S. will likely continue to deploy tariffs not just for balance-of-trade concerns, but also to enforce strategic compliance. This tactic will carry mixed implications for global markets: inflationary near-term, but ultimately supportive of U.S. industrial and defense equities.
Europe’s gradual pivot toward U.S. alignment will create internal friction, especially among member states hesitant to cede strategic autonomy. At the same time, China’s AI diplomacy and Brazil’s defiance of U.S. tariffs will continue to fragment global consensus, creating an increasingly multipolar and protectionist macro environment.
Continued uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s independence—as Trump ramps up pressure on Powell—will contribute to short-term volatility in bond and currency markets. The likelihood of delayed rate cuts or a politically forced pivot is increasing.
Risks and Opportunities
Risks include renewed tariff escalations, especially targeting tech, chips, and Brazil. Europe’s fiscal leniency could spook bond markets if perceived as unsustainable. In private equity, continuation vehicle fatigue risks forcing markdowns across illiquid portfolios.
Opportunities emerge in defense, energy, and AI-linked equities. The U.S. stands to benefit from a surge in industrial demand, while Chinese tech firms could capitalize on regulatory arbitrage in emerging markets. Open-source AI adoption will favor hardware and semiconductor exporters, particularly in Asia.
Asset Impact Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD):
Gold showed initial strength on trade fears but retraced as the deal lowered immediate inflation risk. With Powell’s position under political threat and long-term fiscal expansion in play, the bullish bias remains intact. Expect gold to test $3,400 in Q3 if Fed guidance shifts dovishly. Near-term support lies at $3,300.
S&P 500 (SPX):
Markets welcomed the trade clarity and defense spending surge. Industrials, defense, and energy are clear beneficiaries, while tech gains from relaxed macro pressure. Continued pressure on Powell could add volatility.
Dow Jones (DJIA):
Dividend-heavy Dow components in defense and manufacturing are poised to outperform. Trade normalization and fiscal leniency in Europe favor global cyclicals.
USDJPY:
With Japanese inflation slightly below forecast and the BoJ still cautious, yen strength is capped. U.S. political drama may induce mild USD weakness but not enough to break 145 convincingly.
DXY (US Dollar Index):
The dollar may weaken modestly as tariff resolution reduces safe-haven demand and the Fed comes under pressure to cut. A break below 103.00 would confirm a bearish turn.
Crude Oil (WTI):
Oil remains stuck in a neutral range. Although the EU will buy more U.S. energy, weak demand signals and lackluster PMI data keep prices rangebound. A breakout above $72 requires more forceful geopolitical tension.
Edwards Lifesciences Enters the GapHealthcare has been the weakest sector in the past year, but some traders may expect a comeback in Edwards Lifesciences.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the breakout on Friday after earnings and revenue beat estimates. That rally brought EW into a bearish gap from one year ago.
Second is the May 16 high of $78.28. The heart-valve company spent more than two months mostly below that resistance, but now it’s been breached. Is there a confirmed breakout?
Third, the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) crossed above the 200-day SMA in April. The 50-day SMA climbed above the 100-day SMA in May. Such an alignment, with the faster SMAs above the slower, may suggest a bullish trend is developing over the longer term.
Finally, the pair of bullish gaps after the previous earnings reports in February and April could reflect improving sentiment toward the company’s fundamentals.
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GBPCAD | One Kiss at 1.8390, and I’m All In!The big picture of GBPCAD is BUY possible up to 1.8550
See the H4 BUY range?
It slid love note to BUY into my DMs since 17/JulY. I didn't fall blindly since H4 SELL range came in like a jealous ex.
So I flipped to SELL and I shared my love signal with you here. (check my last week GBPCAD signal).
See that bottom black line at 1.8370?
It got a gentle kiss from the Daily candle (REJECTION).
Then 15m already whispered, "a sweet breakout"!
📌LONG STORY SHORT, I'M BUY AT 1.8390
If H4 comes and kisses 1.8390 (just a touch and wick), I’m BUYING — no more playing hard to get. 😘
TP? 1.8490 — that’s a sweet 100-pips date night!
But if it cuddles (closes by body) That’s it — my heart will be broken. 💔
WISH ME LUCK...or TISSUES! 😂!!!
Temporary SELL then BUYAs we said, BIG picture BUY.
Yesterday temporary sell since H1 range was still SELL.
Today H1 range is BULLISH.
We expect temporary SELL from 147.22/42 (After confirmation we will get Snip entry)
TP1: 146.45 (BUY ZONE)
Note: If It will go to BUY ZONE (146.45) first before SELL ZONE (I wont sell)