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Fundamental Analysis

GBPUSD Let’s see if sellers step in.GBP/USD Trade Update: Holding My Sell at 1.32480 I entered a sell trade at 1.32480, expecting a reversal based on key technical and fundamental setups. But with GBP/USD now sitting at 1.33814, I have to reassess market conditions while still staying true to my trading approach. Fundamental Overview – Why I Still Favor Downside This week’s economic events could create volatility, and I’m paying close attention to: UK PMI (April 23): Expected declines in Manufacturing (44.1) and Services (51.0) suggest economic weakness, which could weigh on GBP. US Durable Goods Orders (April 24): Mixed expectations—headline at +1.8%, but ex-defense and transportation are negative, meaning uncertainty in USD strength. UK Retail Sales (April 25): Forecasted at -0.3%, signaling weaker consumer spending. This aligns with my sell bias, as slowing UK economic data could trigger renewed selling pressure. If the UK data disappoints, GBP/USD could struggle to hold higher levels, reinforcing my trade. Technical & Price Action Analysis Resistance Holding at 1.342–1.345: Strong resistance is forming here. If bulls fail to push past this zone, my sell trade could still play out. Wick formations near this level suggest some rejection, but confirmation is needed. Key Support Levels for a Potential Drop: 1.330–1.331 (Flipped Resistance, Now Support) – Watching if price retests this zone. 1.326–1.327 (Major Support) – If momentum shifts, price could revisit this area. 1.321 (Stronger Support) – If price weakens further, this becomes my downside target. Momentum is slowing, but the bullish trend is still intact unless price rejects at 1.342–1.345. Volume Profile & Institutional Behavior – Are Big Players Selling? Signs of Institutional Unloading: Buy-side orders appear strong, but price is not breaking higher with conviction. This could mean large traders are selling into the rally. Watching for a delta imbalance where buyers dominate order flow, but price fails to rise. This is a classic distribution sign. Why This Matters: If institutions are offloading positions near 1.342–1.345, we could see price stall and reverse. My focus is on whether this resistance holds or breaks. That will define whether my sell trade remains valid. My Trade Management Plan – Staying Patient As a daily trader, I wait for the daily candle close before making adjustments. If price rejects 1.342–1.345, I’ll hold my position with targets back toward 1.330–1.327. If price breaks above resistance and holds, I may need to reevaluate my stop-loss placement. Final Thoughts – Trusting My Process I’m still holding my sell at 1.32480, but I recognize that buyers are testing key resistance. If institutions are quietly distributing, we could see a shift back to the bearish side, but I’m waiting for confirmation at the daily close. I’ll update once the daily candle closes. Let’s see if sellers step in.
Short
by Sel_Ali
First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) – Shining Bright in 2025 Company Snapshot: First Majestic NYSE:AG is emerging as a top-tier silver producer, with a strong focus on sustainable mining and community alignment. Operational discipline, paired with rising commodity prices and robust ESG scores, positions AG for long-term upside. Key Catalysts: Record Silver Output 📈 Q1 2025: 3.7M ounces of silver, up 88% YoY Operational turnaround across four Mexican mines driving momentum Efficiency gains enhance margins as silver prices rally Silver Market Tailwinds ⚡ Rising demand for silver in green energy, EVs, and inflation hedging AG is well-leveraged to price appreciation with a pure-play silver exposure ESG Excellence 🌍 Ranked in top 20% of global miners by ISS Strong ratings from S&P, Sustainalytics, and LSEG $1.2M in community investments = 89% drop in local complaints—a key to operational stability Strategic Appeal to ESG Investors 📊 Increasing alignment with institutional mandates for sustainable resource extraction Low controversy score enhances potential for index inclusion and fund flows Investment Outlook: ✅ Bullish Above: $5.75–$6.00 🚀 Target Range: $9.50–$10.00 🔑 Growth Drivers: Operational scale-up, ESG leadership, and tailwinds from rising silver demand 📢 AG: Where high-grade output meets high-impact sustainability. #SilverStocks #ESGMining #AG #Commodities #PreciousMetals #GreenEnergy
NYSE:AGLong
by Richtv_official
"US500/SPX500" Index Market Money Heist Plan (Day / Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500/SPX500" Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Pink MA Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most nearest or swing, low or high level for Pullback Entries. Stop Loss 🛑: 📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 1D timeframe (5500) Day/Swing trade basis. 📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 4750 (or) Escape Before the Target 💰💵💸"US500/SPX500" Index Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bearish trend.., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Thief_Trader
The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next (chart)b]📉 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next Video idea here: Friends, if you’ve seen my last two posts, you already know — we’re no longer relying on broken halving cycles or outdated narratives. We’re now in the realm of The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR — a framework that maps how trust moves between Bitcoin and traditional assets like U.S. Treasuries . And today’s update? It might be the most important one yet. 🔁 Quick Recap: What Is This Model? This model tracks Bitcoin’s relationship to long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT), cycling between: • Correlated Periods (Blue): BTC and TLT move in the same direction • Inverted Periods (Green): BTC and TLT move in opposite directions And here’s the magic: These flips often occur right at key structural levels in the bond market. 🧠 Where Are We Now? We’re still in an Inverted Period — the 6th major one. • TLT (Treasuries) are dropping again • Bitcoin is rising against that backdrop • The previous support at ~86.8 failed — we are now sliding toward the next major level That level? 📌 71.32 – the all-time structural support for TLT going back to 2004 It’s the same zone that sparked Bitcoin’s explosive moves in the past. 📉 My Expectation: • TLT continues sliding lower • It finds support around 71–76 • Once that happens, we enter a Reversion Phase — where Bitcoin and TLT rise together again • Bitcoin doesn’t just “survive” the macro shakeout — it thrives on it This would be the 6th inversion-to-correlation flip in the model — and historically, these have marked powerful Bitcoin trends. 📊 Why This Model Matters This isn't just about price. It’s about trust . It’s about rotation . It’s about macro capital flow . Forget halving hype — this model focuses on how institutional trust migrates between old systems (bonds) and new systems (Bitcoin). When TLT fails, Bitcoin rises. When TLT finds support, Bitcoin joins in. This is not just a macro hedge. This is the new cycle narrative . 🔍 What to Watch: • Does TLT drop to 71? • Do we find a bottom and reverse? • Does BTC correlate again and break out above 115? If so — we may be on the cusp of a new correlated bull leg . This post builds on the foundation I laid here: 📌 📌 This is part 3. The signal is there. The rotation is happening. The trust is shifting. Are you watching? One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
NASDAQ:TLT
by FX_Professor
1
The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next📉 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next Friends, if you’ve seen my last two posts, you already know we’re not talking about your average halving theory anymore. We're entering a new era of Bitcoin cycle analysis — and this model may change the way we look at macro rotation forever. This is an update to The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR — a cyclical framework built around one question: When trust flows in and out of traditional assets like Treasury bonds... what does Bitcoin do? In this post, we zoom into the latest data: • TLT is testing key support again • Bitcoin is still rising — but in an inverted period • The next major reversion event may be approaching I'll walk you through what happens when correlation flips , why these cycles compress over time, and how we could be approaching the next Bitcoin surge — not because of supply, but because of macro trust flow . If you’ve been wondering what’s really moving the market... this might be the chart you’ve been missing. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
NASDAQ:TLT
by FX_Professor
1
GOLD at its peak, Trump and Powell in focusSpot OANDA:XAUUSD surged, with gold just hitting a new record high of $3,384.62 an ounce. Gold is now up more than $60 on the day. Trump's comments and the Powell "conspiracy" have combined to trigger market activity. Earlier, US President Donald Trump released his insights into the negotiations on his social media platform Truth Social, saying that "the golden rule of negotiation and success is that he who has the gold makes the rules," meaning he who has the gold will have the upper hand. This post on gold is quite interesting, considering the market volatility caused by Trump's previous comments on stocks on social media. Gold prices have surged to a record high as the U.S.-led trade war fuels safe-haven demand and the dollar weakens, Bloomberg reported, and data in the coming days could highlight early signs of damage to the global economy. The International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) the following day will provide a snapshot of economic activity since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs. Gold prices have hit record highs this year as trade conflicts have roiled global markets, denting demand for riskier assets while spurring a rush to safe havens among investors. Gold ETF holdings have risen for a 12-week streak, the longest such streak since 2022. Central banks have also increased their holdings of gold, supporting strong global demand. Bloomberg notes that the sell-off in the US dollar intensified on Monday as US President Trump weighs whether to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell's possible removal could undermine investor confidence as the Fed's independence is seen as a key factor in investing in US assets. However, given that Trump has previously said he welcomes a weaker currency because it makes US products more competitive, he may welcome a weaker US dollar. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the technical chart, the short correction last Friday ended quickly as gold continued to rise along the short-term price channel. The increase broke the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, giving gold the conditions to continue to rise with the target of the 3,400 USD price point in the short term, more than the 3,420 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. It is difficult to expect a significant correction in the current context, but the RSI down through 80 can be considered a good signal for the expectation of a short-term correction. However, with the current position, the main technical outlook for gold is still bullish with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 3,372 – 3,357 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,420 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3414 - 3412⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3418 →Take Profit 1 3406 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3400 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3316 - 3318⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3312 →Take Profit 1 3324 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3330
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD (Gold) - New All-Time Highs (ATH) Reached Gold has broken into uncharted territory, printing a new ATH, reflecting ongoing global uncertainty and strong safe-haven demand. As per my analysis, bullish momentum is likely to continue today, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. 🔍 Technical Outlook: Structure: Strong bullish structure with consecutive higher highs and higher lows. Support Zone (Buy Area): $3362 – $3357 🟩 Immediate Resistance: Minor resistance seen around $3392 – however, low probability of reversal from this zone. Target Zones: 🎯 Primary Targets: $3410 – $3430 Trend Indicators: Price trading well above key EMAs (20 & 50) RSI remains in the bullish zone, with no immediate signs of divergence Market Structure Breaks confirm upward continuation 🛠️ Trading Plan: 📌 Buy Entry Zone: $3362 – $3357 📈 Targets: $3410 / $3430 ❗ Caution: Minor rejection possible near $3392, but bearish move from this level is unlikely unless triggered by unexpected news. 🔒 Risk Management: Use tight SL below $3350 and adjust position size based on account risk parameters. 🚨 Stay alert for any unexpected macroeconomic news or Fed commentary that could introduce volatility.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade_with_Ray
BTC - 4H Bearish Bias Remains Active📉 BINANCE:BTCUSDT – Bearish Bias Remains Active 📉 COINBASE:BTCUSD continues to show strong bearish momentum, and the current structure suggests a likely drop from the $85K– GETTEX:87K zone. 🔍 Key Setup: There's a resistance zone around $86,000, backed by favorable liquidity just above it. This setup increases the probability of a liquidity grab and sharp rejection, which aligns with our bearish scenario. Target zones are mapped near $79K and $76K, depending on how price reacts to the first support. ✅ We’re watching closely for price action confirmation before entering a short. Also, check our previous Bitcoin idea, where we predicted the fall from FWB:83K to below $77K—it played out perfectly! 💡 Follow for real-time updates and don’t miss the next precision trade! 🚀
Short
by Sober_Trading
GBPJPY Poised for Breakout: Bullish Reversal from Key Support The GBP/JPY pair is exhibiting range-bound behavior with a neutral intraday bias. The price action is oscillating between key support and resistance levels, indicating a lack of decisive momentum in either direction The overall sentiment remains cautiously bullish, with traders eyeing the key resistance at 190.00. The recent price action suggests building momentum, but confirmation through a breakout is essential before committing to long positions. In summary, the GBP/JPY pair is at a critical juncture. The alignment of technical indicators and market structures supports the potential for a bullish continuation, but traders should await confirmation through a break above key resistance levels As always, we’ll stay reactive and follow price action confirmation and update the VIP members timely. No chasing — just smart, structured trades. Let’s stay patient and ready. Stick to the plan, Forex Mind Empire
Long
by Forex_Mind_Empire
Palantir Added 40%+ Since April 7. What Does Its Chart Say?Counter-terrorism-software giant Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR rose more than 500% between April 2024 and its February 2025 peak, sank some 47% from there to its April low, then rebounded 47% intraday between April 7 and April 16. What does technical and fundamental analysis say could happen next? Let’s take a look: Palantir’s Fundamental Analysis PLTR rose sharply last Monday and Tuesday (April 14-15) after the U.S.-helmed NATO military alliance disclosed that it has finalized a deal to buy Palantir’s Maven Smart System. NATO officials said the contract marked a significant advancement in modernizing the alliance’s warfighting capabilities. Ludwig Decamps, general manager of the NATO Communications and Information Agency, said he sees the deal as “providing customized, state-of-the-art AI capabilities to the Alliance and empowering our forces with the tools required on the modern battlefield to operate effectively and decisively.” NATO expects to employ the new technology within 30 days, adding that the procurement process took just six months from defining the requirement to full adoption. NATO Chief of Staff General Markus Laubenthal said the new system “enables the alliance to leverage complex data, accelerate decision-making and by doing so, adds a true operational value." Meanwhile, Palantir expects to release first-quarter earnings on or about May 6. The Street is looking for $0.07 in GAAP earnings per share and $0.13 in adjusted EPS on some $874 million of revenues. That would represent more than 36% in year-over-year revenue growth and a 62.5% increase in adjusted EPS when compared to the $0.08 that PLTR reported in the same quarter last year. (Management has most recently guided Q1 revenues to an $860 million midpoint.) A 62.5% year-over-year revenue gain would represent the fifth straight quarter of acceleration in y/y sales growth when compared to the 19.6%, 20.8%, 27.2% and 30% gains Palantir has seen over the past four quarters. In fact, all 11 sell-side analysts that I found that cover the stock have increased their earnings estimates for Palantir since the current quarter began. Palantir’s Fundamental Analysis Next, let’s look at PLTR’s chart going back some three months: Readers will see that PLTR broke out of a so-called “Falling Wedge” pattern of bullish reversal last week on April 9 (as denoted by the red box in the chart above). That occurred on the day when President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on some of his tariffs, sending stocks soaring. PLTR gained 19% that day. The stock also took back its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line) on April 9. That probably brought at least some swing traders on board. However, Palantir initially failed to break its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” denoted by a blue line). Still, the stock managed to take that 50-day SMA last Monday (April 14). Taking the 50-day SMA was critical technically speaking, as it would have likely forced portfolio managers to increase their Palantir long exposure. The 50-day line then acted as support for PLTR for the next few sessions. Separately, Palantir’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) has remained stronger than "neutral" since the stock’s big April 9 run-up. Meanwhile, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with gold and black lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom), is now very close to bullish. Within that MACD, the 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) has moved back above the zero-bound, while the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed above the 26-day EMA (the gold line). Only the 26-day EMA is still in negative territory. If all three components move above the zero-bound and the 12-day line stays above the 26-day line, that would be historically positive from a technical perspective. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle was long PLTR at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by moomoo
1
XAUUSD H1 Outlook – April 21, 2025🧭 Market Overview: XAUUSD just printed new ATH at 3396, with price now pushing again into premium, currently testing 3392.7–3393.6 — a zone with weak high inducement. Price action is extremely vertical, with no clear pullback since 3285. 📈 H1 Structure: Bullish CHoCH and BOS series from April 9 Trend is vertical, clean impulsive waves No internal sign of exhaustion — yet 🧠 Context: H1 candles show price slowing slightly around the weak high area. Smart money will look to trap late buyers above 3396 if price does not break cleanly. 🔼 Key Levels ABOVE Price Type Zone Notes 🧲 Weak High Zone 3393.6–3396.0 Current zone – may act as final inducement trap 🎯 Fibo 1.0 Extension 3405–3415 First proper extension level for late buyers’ liquidation 🚨 Fibo 1.272 Zone 3445–3455 If we spike irrationally → this zone becomes the macro reversal trap 🔽 Key Levels BELOW Price Type Zone Notes 🔵 Micro Demand 3340–3345 Small M15 OB zone – valid for reaction scalps only 🟢 Confirmed OB Zone 3284–3288 Last valid H1 OB + FVG confluence → strong buy reentry ⚓️ Macro Demand Base 3220–3235 Institutional reaccumulation zone from previous rally 🎯 H1 Bias: Still bullish — but close to final exhaustion levels. 📌 Look for LTF reversal signs around 3393–3405 to consider safe short entries.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Bearish flag Into Key Retracement Zone suggesting likely bearishLast week, we highlighted the strong bullish breakout on EURAUD and noted how price paused just below the major resistance at 1.87487, forming a rejection wick. At that point, we were watching for either early selling pressure or simply a breather before continuation. The current pattern suggests a likely bearish breakout from the wedge. We're now focusing on the 1.73434–1.73242 zone as a high-probability area for a pullback and bullish continuation. This perfectly aligns with what we shared last week — watch that zone closely. If the market respects that level, we could see another leg up toward 1.87487
Short
by Forex_Mind_Empire
Solid Q1 Earnings amid Tariff Turbulence Spike S&P500 VolatilityAs Q1 earnings roll in, Wall Street is digesting a rare divergence: strong fundamentals across much of corporate America paired with deepening investor anxiety. While companies are largely beating expectations, looming tariff shocks and tech sector fragility are suppressing sentiment—and returns. Tactical positioning is crucial at times like this. This paper describes the outlook for the coming earnings season and posits options strategies that astute portfolio managers can deploy to generate solid yield with fixed downside. Resilient Earnings Growth in the Current Season The Q1 2025 earnings season is underway, and early results show resilient growth despite an unsettled backdrop. According to a Factset report , with about 12% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 71% have beaten earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue forecasts. Blended earnings are tracking about +7.2% year-over-year, on pace for a seventh-straight quarter of growth. However, only two sectors have seen improved earnings outlook since the quarter began (led by Financials), while most others have faced modest downgrades. Forward guidance is also skewing cautious – roughly 59% of S&P companies issuing full-year EPS forecasts have guided below prior consensus, reflecting corporate wariness amid macro uncertainty. Source: Factset as of 17/April Financials Front-Load the Upside The first wave of reports was dominated by major banks, which largely delivered strong profits and upside surprises. Volatile markets proved a boon to trading desks: JPMorgan’s equities trading revenue surged 48% to a record $3.8 billion, and Bank of America’s stock traders hauled in a record $2.2 billion as clients repositioned portfolios around tariff news. Source: Factset as of 17/April These tailwinds – along with still-solid net interest income – helped lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup post double-digit profit growth (JPM’s Q1 earnings up 9% to $5.07/share; Citi’s up 21% to $1.96). FactSet notes that positive surprises from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and peers have boosted the Financials sector’s blended earnings growth rate to 6.1% (from 2.6% as of March 31), making it a key contributor to the S&P 500’s overall gains. Even so, bank executives struck a wary tone. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that “considerable turbulence” from geopolitics and trade tensions is weighing on client sentiment. Wells Fargo likewise warned that U.S. tariffs could slow the economy and trimmed its full-year net interest income outlook to the low end of its range. Across Wall Street, management teams indicated they are shoring up reserves and bracing for potential credit headwinds if import levies drive up inflation or dent growth. Tech Titans Under Scrutiny Attention now turns to the yet-to-report mega-cap tech firms, which face a very different set of challenges. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet – collectively heavyweights in the index – have been battered by the escalating trade war, eroding some of their premium valuations. Apple’s share price plunged over 20% in early April on fears that new tariffs could jack up the cost of an iPhone to nearly $2,300, underscoring these companies’ exposure to global supply chains. The tech sector’s forward P/E remains about 23 (well above the market’s 19), leaving little room for error if earnings guidance disappoints. With Washington’s tariff barrage and retaliatory threats casting a long shadow, Big Tech finds itself on the front line of the global trade war, suddenly vulnerable on multiple fronts. Any cautious outlook from these giants – which account for an outsized share of S&P 500 profits – could heavily sway overall forward earnings sentiment. Market Context and Reaction Despite solid Q1 fundamentals, equity markets have been whipsawed by macro headlines. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory, falling roughly 10% since the start of April and about 14% below its February peak, as investors de-rated stocks in anticipation of tariff fallout and a potential economic slowdown. Consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed with risk delaying rate cuts in the near-term. This pullback has tempered valuations somewhat – the index’s forward P/E has eased to ~19 (down from ~20 at quarter-end) – even though consensus earnings estimate for 2025 have only inched down. Notably, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks that led last year’s rally are all sharply lower year-to-date (Alphabet –20%, Tesla –40%), a stark reversal that has dented market breadth and sentiment. Source: Factset as of 17/April Investors are rewarding only the strong earnings winners: for instance, Bank of America’s stock jumped over 4% after its earnings beat, and JPMorgan rose 3% on its results. Such reactions imply the market is discriminating – strong execution is being acknowledged even as the broader mood remains cautious. Source: Factset as of 17/April Hypothetical Trade Setup Solid corporate performance is offset by significant macro risks, warranting a nimble and selective approach. While recent positive earnings may provide a short-term boost, downbeat sentiment and concerns over future tech earnings could limit gains. In this uncertain environment, investors may adopt a fundamentally driven view that the S&P 500 could rise in the near term due to strong earnings. However, the upside appears limited, supporting the case for a bullish call spread. Earnings release dates for the Super 7 With major tech firms set to report earnings in early May, investors can consider the 2nd May MES Friday weekly options. A narrow bull call spread offers a higher probability of profitability. In this hypothetical setup, the long call is at 5,250 and the short call at 5,390, resulting in a breakeven point of 5,312 at expiry. This position requires net premium of USD 315/contract (USD 62.5/index point x 5). The position returns a max profit of USD 385/contract for all strikes > 5,390 and a max loss of USD 315/contract for all strikes < 5,250. This strategy is most successful when the S&P 500 rises slowly. A simulation of this scenario using the CME QuikStrike Strategy Simulator has been provided below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Gold weekly update with both buy and sell levels🔍 Short-Term Forecast for XAU/USD Current Market Context: Price: $3,227.375 (currently) Recent High: Around $3,328 Structure: Strong bullish rally with minor retracement. Currently consolidating under a key resistance zone. Fib Levels: Price has respected Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, particularly 0.618 and 0.786. Volume Delta: High macro delta volume at 19.67%, indicating aggressive buying. Forecast: Bullish Bias short-term with room for a minor pullback to retest lower support zones around $3,200–$3,180 before continuation higher. If $3,328 is broken convincingly, we could see a rally toward $3,345, $3,360, and beyond. 📈 Potential Trading Signals Buy Signals: Break and Retest of $3,328 Resistance – Watch for a clean break above $3,328 and retest as support to initiate a long position. Pullback to $3,200–$3,180 Zone – This is a high confluence area of previous support + Fib level (near 0.382–0.5). Bullish reversal candlestick patterns here could be a buy trigger. EMA Bounce – The 21 and 50 EMA are acting as dynamic support. A bounce from these EMAs could be a signal for continuation upward. Sell Signals: Failure to Break $3,328 With Strong Bearish Rejection – Look for long wicks and engulfing candles near resistance. Break Below $3,180 – Could trigger a sharper correction to $3,150 and possibly $3,100. 📊 Upcoming Economic Data & Impact on XAU/USD Key Events to Watch: U.S. Fed Commentary & Rate Decision Expectations U.S. CPI / PPI / Core Inflation Reports Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Geopolitical Risks (Middle East, Ukraine, etc.) Influence: Hawkish Fed Data (higher inflation, strong jobs) → Stronger USD → Bearish for XAU/USD. Dovish Signals (cooling inflation, rate cut hints) → Weaker USD → Bullish for XAU/USD. Geo-Risk Escalation → Gold rallies as a safe haven. 📋 Day Trading Plan for XAU/USD Trading Style: Scalping to Intraday Swing Timeframe Focus: 15min, 1hr, 4hr Indicators Used: 21 EMA, 50 EMA Fibonacci Retracement/Extension Price Action (Engulfing, Doji, Pin Bars) Volume & Delta Volumes Key S/R Zones 🔹 Bullish Setup (Buy the Dip Strategy): Entry: $3,200–$3,180 Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or pin bar + bounce from EMA TP1: $3,245 TP2: $3,280 SL: $3,172 (below structure) 🔹 Breakout Strategy (Momentum Trade): Entry: Break of $3,328 and close above Confirmation: 15m or 1h candle close above with increased volume TP1: $3,345 TP2: $3,360 SL: $3,312 🔻 Bearish Setup (Fade the Resistance): Entry: Rejection of $3,328 zone Confirmation: Long upper wick or bearish engulfing candle TP1: $3,280 TP2: $3,250 SL: $3,335 📌 Risk Management Tips Risk max 1–2% per trade. Adjust position size according to volatility (ATR). Use alerts around key levels: $3,200, $3,328, $3,345. Avoid trading major news releases without clarity. 🗺️ XAU/USD Day Trading Roadmap (Short-Term) ✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Breakout Play) 📍 Key Level to Watch: → Resistance at $3,328 🟢 If price breaks and closes above $3,328: Enter LONG on retest of $3,328 as support. TP1: $3,345 TP2: $3,360 TP3: $3,382 SL: Below $3,312 📊 Confirmation Needed: Bullish 15m/1h close above resistance Increasing volume 🔄 Scenario 2: Range Play / Rejection from Resistance 📍 Key Range: Top: $3,328 Bottom: $3,200–$3,180 🔴 If price rejects $3,328: Consider SHORT entries from resistance TP1: $3,280 TP2: $3,250 SL: Above $3,335 📊 Confirmation Needed: Bearish engulfing or pin bar near $3,328 Divergence or decreasing volume 🟢 Scenario 3: Buy-the-Dip (Support Bounce) 📍 Buy Zone: → $3,200–$3,180 support zone (confluence of Fib & EMA) 🟢 If price pulls back and holds above $3,180: Go LONG on bullish candle TP1: $3,245 TP2: $3,280 SL: Below $3,172 📊 Confirmation Needed: Pin bar, hammer, or bullish engulfing Volume bounce or EMA support hold 🔻 Scenario 4: Bearish Breakdown 📍 Critical Support: → $3,180 🔴 If price breaks & closes below $3,180: Go SHORT on retest of $3,180 as resistance TP1: $3,150 TP2: $3,100 SL: Above $3,190 📊 Confirmation Needed: Clean break + bearish volume spike EMAs cross bearish 🧠 Bonus Tips: 🕓 Best sessions: London and New York overlap 📅 Check calendar: U.S. CPI, PPI, and NFP are gold movers 🧯 Avoid overtrading. Let price come to your key zones. 🎯 Use alerts at $3,180, $3,200, $3,328
OANDA:XAUUSD
by F0rexBorex
Bitcoin Analysis: Macro Tailwinds + Tape Reading = The Perfect B🌍 Bitcoin Analysis: Macro Tailwinds + Tape Reading = The Perfect Bulltrap (or a Historic Breakout) Published by: Pôncio Pacífico — The Portuguese God of Derivatives ⚡ Macro Context: Global Instability Is Pushing Bitcoin Up (For Now) In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin has surged nearly 3%, hitting $87,500. This happened while: The U.S. dollar weakened amid political instability (Trump challenging the Fed's authority) Gold hit a new all-time high above $3,370/oz Global equity markets corrected and bond yields declined 🔎 Sources: Bloomberg & Reuters Bitcoin is behaving like a risk-off asset. Bullish at first glance, but the tape tells a more sinister story... 🕵️ On-Chain & Order Flow Analysis (last 5 days) Delta: Negative delta candles with price still rising → classic short squeeze behavior Open Interest: Increased during the pump, then flattened → sign of trapped FOMO longs Volume: Strong at the beginning of the move, now fading while price still climbs → exhaustion? Conclusion: we’re seeing short liquidations + late long entries = DANGER ZONE. 📊 Institutional Trading Scenarios (Macro + Tape Reading) 🚑 SCENARIO A: Bulltrap in Progress (most likely) Short entry: $87,850–$88,000 Stop loss: $88,200 Target 1: $87,100 Target 2: $86,200 Trigger: Weak volume + flat delta + rising OI (FOMO) 🌪 SCENARIO B: Controlled Pullback, Institutional Re-entry Long entry: $86,300 Stop: $85,800 Target 1: $87,500 Target 2: $88,800 Trigger: Volume spike + positive delta + stable OI ⚡ SCENARIO C: Authentic Breakout Entry: $88,100 Stop: $87,600 Target: $89,800–90,000 Trigger: Aggressive delta + visible liquidations + strong volume breakout 💭 Final Pôncio Proclamation "Macro says buy. Tape says wait. Combine both and you realize: whoever buys now without a plan... is paying for the market makers' champagne brunch." Share this if you don’t want your gym buddy to long the top again. #BTC #Futures #TapeReading #CryptoAnalysis #MacroTrading #InstitutionalTools #VolumeProfile #OpenInterest #ShortSqueeze
by NunoSid
Watch for a breakout from the #BANKUSDT📍 The price of MEXC:BANKUSDT.P is approaching the apex of the pattern — a breakout from consolidation is expected soon. The main scenario favors a downward breakout, with a short opportunity if confirmed. 📍 Important note: ➡️ Don’t rush the entry! Wait for a clear breakout from the pennant and confirmation of the direction. 📍 Beware of fakeouts — the key to success lies in confirmation with candle closes and volume. 📉 SHORT MEXC:BANKUSDT.P from $0.04118 🛡 Stop loss: $0.04284 🕒 Timeframe: 1H 📢 Overview: ➡️ The main structure of MEXC:BANKUSDT.P remains bearish, showing consolidation after a drop. ➡️ A break below the $0.04118 support will trigger the Bearish Pennant pattern. ➡️ Volume increase on the breakout will confirm sellers' dominance. 🎯 TP Targets for SHORT: 💎 TP 1: $0.04010 💎 TP 2: $0.03900 💎 TP 3: $0.03815 📢 Entry conditions for MEXC:BANKUSDT.P : Enter only after a clear breakdown and candle close below $0.04118, ideally with volume confirmation. 📢 If the price holds above $0.04588, the structure may be invalidated, and the short scenario should be reconsidered. 📈 LONG MEXC:BANKUSDT.P from $0.04652 🛡 Stop loss: $0.04501 🕒 Timeframe: 1H 📢 Overview: ➡️ Price is compressing inside a Bearish Pennant, but there is still potential for a fake breakout upward. ➡️ A breakout above the pennant on strong volume may lead to a bullish impulse. ➡️ The $0.04652 level is key for a long entry after confirmation. 🎯 TP Targets for LONG: 💎 TP 1: $0.04760 💎 TP 2: $0.04870 💎 TP 3: $0.04970 📢 Entry conditions: Enter only after a confident breakout above $0.04652 and a solid candle close (preferably with high volume). 🚀 Watch for a breakout from the MEXC:BANKUSDT.P structure and trade only in the confirmed direction. Either way — there is good movement potential and the R/R ratio is solid in both directions!
MEXC:BANKUSDT.P
by MoriartyTrading