Get started

Fundamental Analysis

Gold up trend Gold will see a correction before resuming its upward trend. This pullback is not a result of a fundamental shift in the factors driving gold's appeal. Inflation remains stubbornly high, geopolitical risks are escalating globally, and central banks, while hinting at potential interest rate cuts, are not in a hurry to change course. Consider it a necessary pause to allow the market to digest recent gains. We've seen a strong rally, and profit-taking is inevitable. Levels to watch are crucial. A break below could signal a deeper correction, but I expect strong support around . This area should serve as a launching pad for the next leg up. Smart investors will use this dip to accumulate more gold at a better price. Don't sell in a panic; this is a compelling buying opportunity. The long-term thesis for gold remains very much intact.
CFI:XAUUSDLong
by Ibrahim1984
WHAT'S THE FATE OF INTEL CORPORATION STOCK?From the perspective of technical analysis, INTC is approaching a key psychological level at $19. In addition, it's in a downtrend. If the key level should hold by pushing price higher, leading to a break out of the downtrend line and closing with a strong bullish candle above the down trend line and resistance level around $22, this will indicate a strong bullish signal. Likewise, this is supported by a bullish divergence signal from the awesome oscillator. Otherwise, a failure of the psychological level of $19 may lead to price dropping further. Furthermore, we need to look beyond technical analysis. Fundamental analysis also has some insights for our decisions. Fundamentals for INTC established a bearish bias. The summary is as follows: Financial Health: • Negative EPS (-$4.47): Intel is losing money. • High Debt ($50B): This can limit growth and increase risk. • Declining Revenue: Sales dropped from $80B (2021) to $51B (2024). Valuation: • Cheap P/S (1.66x), but no P/E (due to negative earnings). • Dividend yield (2.56%) is at risk of being cut. Sentiment: Stock price fell from $56 to $19.55 (65% drop). Institutional investors may be wary. Fundamentally, INTC is weak — best suited for speculative, long-term bets (if you believe in a turnaround). Strategy for Traders: 1. Conservative Approach: - Wait for: - Break out of downtrend line and resistance around $22 and positive earnings/news. - Rising volume to confirm momentum. - Target: $27–$30 - Stop-loss: Below $17 (apply proper risk management). 2. Aggressive Approach: - Buy near $18–$19 with tight stop-loss ($16). - Target resistance level at $22. 3. Avoid If: - You’re risk-averse or prefer stable companies. - Intel’s debt/revenue trends worsen. Note: - Short-Term Trade: Only if breakout confirms ($22+). High risk, but possible 20% bounce. - Long-Term Investment: Avoid unless Intel shows profit/debt improvement. Always use stop-losses —Intel’s fundamentals make it volatile. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice. The outcome maybe different from the projection. Don't take the signal if you can't accept the risk.
NASDAQ:INTC
by KofTFx
WHAT'S THE FAITH OF INTEL CORPORATION STOCK? From the perspective of technical analysis, INTC is approaching a key psychological level at $19. In addition, it's in a downtrend. If the key level should hold by pushing price higher, leading to a break out of the downtrend line and closing with a strong bullish candle above the down trend line and resistance level around $22, this will indicate a strong bullish signal. Likewise, this is supported by a bullish divergence signal from the awesome oscillator. Otherwise, a failure of the psychological level of $19 may lead to price dropping further. Furthermore, we need to look beyond technical analysis. Fundamental analysis also has some insights for our decisions. Fundamentals for INTC established a bearish bias. The summary is as follows: Financial Health : • Negative EPS (-$4.47): Intel is losing money. • High Debt ($50B): This can limit growth and increase risk. • Declining Revenue: Sales dropped from $80B (2021) to $51B (2024). Valuation: • Cheap P/S (1.66x), but no P/E (due to negative earnings). • Dividend yield (2.56%) is at risk of being cut. Sentiment: Stock price fell from $56 to $19.55 (65% drop). Institutional investors may be wary. Fundamentally, INTC is weak — best suited for speculative, long-term bets (if you believe in a turnaround). Strategy for Traders: 1. Conservative Approach: - Wait for: - Break out of downtrend line and resistance around $22 and positive earnings/news. - Rising volume to confirm momentum. - Target: $27–$30 - Stop-loss: Below $17 (apply proper risk management). 2. Aggressive Approach: - Buy near $18–$19 with tight stop-loss ($16). - Target resistance level at $22. 3. Avoid If: - You’re risk-averse or prefer stable companies. - Intel’s debt/revenue trends worsen. Note: - Short-Term Trade: Only if breakout confirms ($22+). High risk, but possible 20% bounce. - Long-Term Investment: Avoid unless Intel shows profit/debt improvement. Always use stop-losses —Intel’s fundamentals make it volatile. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice. The outcome maybe different from the projection. Don't take the signal if you can't accept the risk.
NASDAQ:INTC
by KofTFx
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 02 - Jun 06]During the week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated in the range of 3,245 - 3,331 USD/oz and closed the week at 3,289 USD/oz. The reason for the sideways gold price was due to the lack of strong information. The US Court of International Trade's ruling on blocking the Trump administration's tariff policy was postponed, while the US PCE index in April increased by only 2.5%, down from the previous month, not enough to influence the FED's policy in the context of prolonged trade instability. If the Court continues to block the tariffs, President Trump can still use several laws to maintain the tariffs: 🔹Section 122 - Trade Act of 1974: Allows for a 15% across-the-board tariff for 150 days; then requires congressional approval to extend. 🔹Section 338 - Trade Act of 1930: Allows for tariffs of up to 50% on goods from countries deemed to discriminate against the United States. 🔹Section 232 - Trade Expansion Act of 1962: Allows for the expansion of tariffs from items such as aluminum, steel, and automobiles to other industries on national security grounds. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that US-China trade negotiations are still at a standstill due to many complicated issues, requiring direct intervention from the leaders of the two countries. Although the tariff war is still complicated, the most tense phase has passed. Therefore, in the short term, gold prices are unlikely to exceed the $3,500/oz mark and will likely continue to adjust and accumulate in the $3,100-$3,400/oz range. Although gold prices are currently stuck in a range, the US economic data released next week, especially the May non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, could cause a sharp move. The NFP is forecast to come in at 130,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. If true, this could reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates to support the labor market, thereby supporting gold prices. Conversely, if the NFP is stronger than expected, especially higher than last month, the Fed could keep interest rates unchanged, putting downward pressure on gold prices. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, gold prices are almost moving sideways in a narrowing range, the resistance level is established around 3325 while the support level is around 3245. Next week, gold prices are likely to increase slightly if economic and geopolitical factors continue to support, corresponding to the H1 technical chart, gold prices will increase to 3365-3415 if the price breaks through the Downtrend line and breaks the resistance zone of 3325. In case the gold price falls below the support zone of 3245, the gold price will reverse and decrease. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,250 – 3,228USD Resistance: 3,300 – 3,371USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3327 - 3325⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3431 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3203 - 3205⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3199
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
EurUsd AnalysisStrategy Suggestion Bullish Bias above 1.1210 with breakout confirmation above 1.1418. Price is above both 50-EMA (green) and 200-EMA (red), signaling medium to long-term bullish trend. Recent strong bullish candles suggest continuation, but price shows some consolidation near highs. RSI (14) ≈ 65: Near overbought, but not extreme, leaves room for more upside. Volume: Elevated on recent bullish move, then tapered slightly—momentum slowing, but not reversing.
Long
by SatoshisStudents
1
PLTR 1D — When the tea is brewed and the handle’s in placePalantir’s daily chart is shaping up a textbook cup with handle pattern — one of the most reliable continuation setups in technical analysis. The cup base was formed over several months and transitioned into a consolidation phase, building a rectangle structure where smart money likely accumulated positions before a breakout. Now here’s the key: price has not only broken out — it’s settled above all major moving averages, including EMA 20/50/100/200 and MA 50/200. The breakout candle was supported by surging volume, signaling strong participation from institutional buyers. When all the averages start bending upwards, it's usually not by accident. The breakout above the $121 resistance zone unlocked a pathway toward a target at $187 , derived by projecting the height of the cup upward from the breakout level. This kind of structure, once confirmed, often fuels aggressive continuation — and this one’s got the setup locked in. From a fundamental perspective, Palantir is holding solid ground: strong earnings reports, expanding government and commercial contracts, and aggressive development in AI services. Institutional interest is rising steadily, and that momentum is visibly reflected in price action. To sum it up: price has launched cleanly out of the consolidation zone, pierced all critical MAs and EMAs, and continues to gain momentum. While the market sips its tea, this cup is boiling hot. Just don’t forget your stop loss — this is a trading desk, not a tea party. If you enjoy posts like this, drop a like, share it around, and let’s hear your thoughts below. It keeps ideas moving and the content flowing — free, sharp, and relevant.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by TotoshkaTrades
11
Bullish on SPY!What I have understand is that market negatively reacts to Tariff implementation. This is the market sentiment. Since Tariffs have been paused, cut off, or delayed to another time. Most courts are suspending the Trump Tariff. Market has been behaving positively, It has also broken the previous small resistance at the price $575. And has also retracement. If you put moving average of 10, you can see it has retested below level but closes above the MA which is a good signal. I believe SPY will touch $607 within 2 weeks from now, and hopefully a fundamental news will break the $610 level. And it is common sense if SPY moves rapidly upwards, almost all of the SP500 companies will go up ( not all). And I think buying stocks that are already at the high resistance level is good if what I think will happen.
AMEX:SPYLong
by FinExcel
EURJPY Weekly Analysis – Major Structural Breakout & Target🧱 1. Consolidation Zone: The Dual Directional Area From around August 2024 to May 2025, EURJPY traded inside a well-defined consolidation range, marked between approximately 155.00 to 165.00. This phase can be categorized as a Dual Directional Zone, meaning both buyers and sellers had tactical entries, but the market was in accumulation/distribution mode. This phase often traps breakout traders and builds liquidity on both sides. Price repeatedly swept highs and lows inside this zone but lacked any commitment, signaling that larger players were building positions. The flat structure over months hinted that a major move was imminent. ⚠️ 2. Major CHoCH (Change of Character) The first clue of shifting momentum was the CHoCH, which signaled a change in direction and flow of control. The lower highs and lower lows began to shift into higher lows, showing buying strength beneath the surface. This change didn’t immediately lead to breakout, but it marked the early intention of bullish dominance. 🚀 3. Major BOS (Break of Structure): Confirming the Bullish Bias The clean break above the range high was the confirmation of a major bullish BOS. This wasn’t just a minor pop — it was an aggressive breakout, validating that institutional liquidity had been accumulated and was now being deployed. The price ran swiftly toward the Bullish Target Zone (~177.50–180.00) with very little pullback, suggesting urgency from buyers or short-covering from trapped sellers. 🎯 4. Bullish Target Reached – What's Next? Price has hit the projected Bullish Target Area — a region of prior imbalance and psychological round numbers. Traders who caught the breakout now face a critical decision point: Will price continue higher into price discovery mode, or is this the exhaustion phase? If price holds above the BOS level (~165.00), there’s still room for continuation. But signs of rejection or slowing momentum here could lead to a correction. 🔻 5. Bearish Alternative: Trap and Reversal Scenario The bearish path is not out of play — in fact, this move upward could potentially be a liquidity sweep. If price fails to stay above the BOS and rapidly closes back into the consolidation range, it would suggest a bull trap. This would confirm a deviation, which often leads to violent reversals. The projected Bearish Target Zone (~145.00–147.50) aligns with prior unmitigated zones and imbalance that may attract price if sentiment flips. 🧭 6. Trading Strategy & Risk Planning For Bulls: Watch for consolidation above 165.00. Breakout + Retest entries toward 180.00 or beyond offer high R/R. For Bears : Look for exhaustion or fakeout patterns (like a Quasimodo or supply engulfing) near current highs. A breakdown and close below 165.00 signals short entries targeting 150s and potentially 147s. 💬 Final Thoughts: This chart is a prime example of how patience during a range and reaction after breakout pays off. Smart traders don’t chase — they prepare. A bullish continuation may still be in play. However, if this move was only a liquidity purge, the reversal could be deep and fast. Stay alert, mark your key levels, and trade what you see — not what you feel.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EURGBP Weekly Analysis (MMC) – Structure Mapping & Target🧠 Market Structure Overview: The current EURGBP structure is a textbook example of Market Mapping Cycle (MMC) behavior—where price progresses through accumulation, breakout, manipulation, and eventual rebalancing. The pair has completed a liquidity sweep and is on its final leg toward a defined reversal target zone. 🔹 Phase 1: Accumulation Within Channel From August to late December 2024, EURGBP traded inside a descending channel. This move created an illusion of bearish control, but careful observation reveals it was a liquidity engineering setup. Institutions were accumulating beneath key swing lows, marked by equal lows and multiple false breaks. The “Previous Channel Structure” identified on the chart is crucial—it acted as a bear trap and formed the base of the MMC curve. 🔹 Phase 2: Break of Structure (BOS) and Smart Money Entry In early January 2025, the market broke structure with strong bullish candles. This Major BOS was the first signal of institutional engagement, shifting the structure from distribution to accumulation phase. After the BOS, price tested the breakout level, forming a curve support (MMC's bullish arc structure). This is where smart money typically adds positions on retracement. 🔹 Phase 3: Liquidity Sweep & Acceleration In March 2025, EURGBP dipped sharply, triggering a liquidity sweep below prior lows. This fakeout move was a classic manipulation phase—clearing late buyers before a fast reversal. Price rejected strongly from the curve support, confirming the MMC continuation. 🔹 Phase 4: Expansion Toward MMC Target The market moved vertically, respecting the MMC curve structure and 50% retracement zone of the last impulse (noted on the chart). This movement shows momentum expansion, typical of MMC Phase 3. Price is now rapidly approaching the Target + Next Reversal zone at 0.86800–0.87200. 🔻 What to Expect Next: The Target Zone aligns with multiple confluences: supply imbalance, psychological round number, and prior liquidity void. Expect strong reaction or reversal from this zone. Confirmation is needed before shorting, ideally via: Lower Timeframe Break of Structure (LTF BOS) Bearish divergence or volume exhaustion Candlestick rejections (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bars) 📈 Summary of Key Technical Elements: Concept Observation MMC Phase Expansion (Phase 3) Liquidity Sweep March 2025 – below prior support BOS (Break of Structure) Early 2025 bullish breakout Current Bias Bullish until 0.8700 zone Reversal Potential High at MMC Target + Supply Zone 📚 Educational Note: This analysis follows the Market Mapping Cycle (MMC) method—a higher-level view of Smart Money Concepts. By studying price curves, liquidity zones, and psychological areas, traders can anticipate market behavior before traditional indicators catch up.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EURUSD Weekly Analysis (MMC) – Bearish Path to Target Zone📈 Market Narrative – Understanding EURUSD's Path with MMC The EURUSD pair is currently navigating a critical phase in its macro price structure, aligning closely with the Mind Market Concept (MMC) methodology — a trading framework rooted in institutional price behavior, psychological arcs, and structured market mapping. This chart reveals a story of accumulation, expansion, manipulation, and rebalancing — classic smart money behavior playing out on the higher timeframe. The current move is not just price action — it's a strategic delivery of price toward imbalance, guided by volume vacuums, liquidity zones, and engineered traps. 🧩 Phase-by-Phase Technical Analysis 🔷 1. Arc Accumulation Zone – The Beginning of Institutional Positioning In the latter half of 2024, EURUSD entered a rounded arc formation, which marks a textbook accumulation phase. This "bowl-like" curve represents gradual absorption of sell-side liquidity by institutions. The lows became progressively higher, indicating demand stepping in while supply weakened. Volume during this time was suppressed — another smart money tactic to accumulate without causing price spikes. 📌 Why This Matters: Arcs often precede explosive breakouts, particularly when aligned with time-based liquidity cycles (quarterly/yearly rebalancing). This zone gave birth to the breakout that followed. 🔷 2. The Central Zone – Consolidation Before Expansion Once the arc base was complete, price broke out impulsively, then pulled back into what is labeled the Central Zone. This zone acts as a mid-range liquidity pocket — where orders are stacked and reaccumulation occurs. It also became the launchpad for the final markup wave that tapped the previous target around 1.1250. 🔍 This move was the realignment phase, where smart money took price above key highs to: Hit their internal targets. Trap breakout traders. Induce euphoria before distribution. 🔷 3. Major BOS – Break of Macro Structure The breakout through 1.1150–1.1200 confirmed a Major Break of Structure (BOS). This BOS acted as a signal for: Trend reversal confirmation for many retail traders. A "green light" to buy — which was anticipated and exploited by institutions. But here’s the twist: Price rejected the SR Interchange Zone (support turned resistance), signaling that the breakout was engineered to trap liquidity. 🔷 4. Distribution & Manipulation – The Trap Layer The chart clearly shows two critical supply areas: Minor Resistance (around 1.1400s) Major Resistance (around 1.1550–1.1600s) Price briefly approached these zones but failed to hold, forming a complex distribution range. This is where: Smart money distributed their long positions. Retail buyers got trapped. Volume increased during sell-side preparation. 📌 The rejection from these zones sent price into a clean markdown, forming lower highs and confirming the bearish structure mapping. 🔷 5. Structural Mapping – Downtrend Control Price action is now clearly in a bearish delivery phase, as shown by: Lower highs & lower lows Repeated rejections from minor resistance Large red candles with little retracement (showing momentum) This phase is often misunderstood by retail traders. But within MMC, it’s identified as the delivery to imbalance — a controlled descent into unmitigated demand. 🔷 6. Target + Reversal Zone – Where the Real Opportunity Begins We are approaching the most important area on the chart: 🟡 Target + Reversal Zone (around 1.0950–1.1000) This zone is not randomly drawn: It's the origin of the arc breakout, a high-volume node. It's a discounted price level where institutions may re-engage. It’s untapped demand from the earlier accumulation — meaning no major reaction has occurred here yet. If price slows down here, forms a liquidity sweep, or gives a bullish engulfing on the lower timeframe — this could be the reversal point. But: If price slices through with strong momentum, it may signal macro weakness, opening room to test the 1.0800 region. 🧭 Trade Plan & Execution Guide Setup Type Actionable Guidance 📉 Bearish Pullback Entry Short entries near 1.1300–1.1350 with stop above minor resistance 🟡 Demand Reversal Watch Wait for reaction in 1.0950–1.1000, assess volume & candle response 📊 Structure Confirmation Use lower timeframe BOS for entry alignment 🛡️ Risk Management Keep risk below 1% per trade, avoid chasing mid-zone prices 💬 Key Takeaways EURUSD has completed its accumulation → expansion → manipulation cycle. We are now entering the rebalancing phase, where the market returns to fair value (demand). Smart money flow is visible — from engineered highs to controlled selloffs. The Target + Reversal Zone will likely dictate the next macro direction.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
1
JPYUSD Weekly Analysis (MMC) – Smart Structure & Target Zones🧠 Market Sentiment & Technical Landscape The JPYUSD currency pair has entered a decisive phase in its multi-week bullish run, driven by structural integrity, smart money behavior, and market psychology. This chart captures a strategic trade progression using the Mind Market Concept (MMC) approach — a hybrid strategy blending curve dynamics, volume imprints, and structural flow to track institutional intent. We're seeing a powerful alignment of structure, momentum, and volume signals, all pointing to a potential high-probability completion near the upper target/reversal zone. 🔍 In-Depth Technical Breakdown 🔹 1. Curve Support Foundation – The Psychological Bedrock At the heart of this bullish move lies the Black Mind Curve Support — a dynamic, rounded trendline support based on momentum cycles and structural lows. This curve is not arbitrary; it’s a reflection of where smart money has repeatedly absorbed sell-side liquidity before marking up the price. Multiple rejections from this zone around 0.00640 – 0.00650 provided confirmation of intent. The rounded nature of this curve support mimics market accumulation patterns — think of it as a “loading zone” before explosive movement. 🔹 2. Structural Breakout – A Clean Bullish Sequence Price respected a multi-month resistance line and finally broke out in April–May 2025. The breakout wasn't just technical — it occurred after: A liquidity sweep below the February-March higher low A retest of the curve A sharp bullish engulfing formation on the weekly chart This combination confirms a high-confidence shift in market structure — transitioning from ranging accumulation to directional markup. 🔹 3. Volume Imprints – Institutional Footprints The chart highlights a Needed Volume area — this is where previous institutional order blocks likely existed. The strong bullish move into that zone confirms: Buyers were active and aggressive The area served as both resistance and a breakout retest This volume footprint now acts as a supportive launchpad, reaffirming trend continuation logic. 🔹 4. Target + Next Reversal Zone As price continues climbing, it’s now approaching a critical confluence zone around 0.00720 – 0.00725. This zone is projected using: Fibonacci extension of the last impulse Measured move symmetry Historical supply and resistance (Q3 2024 highs) This is not just a target — it’s a high-probability reversal area. Expect: Potential exhaustion candles Momentum divergence Institutional profit-taking 📊 MMC Strategy Approach – Trade Blueprint Parameter Detail Bias Bullish (until reversal confirmation) Current Price ~0.00694 Buy Zone 0.00685–0.00690 (pullback entry) Target Zone 0.00720–0.00725 Curve Support 0.00650–0.00660 Invalidation Clean break below curve or engulfing bear momentum This MMC-based setup emphasizes patience, psychological precision, and proper confirmation for both entry and exit. The idea is to buy smart (on structure), and exit smarter (at institutional interest zones). ⚠️ Key Trader Insights Don’t chase — wait for clean entry signals near structure (curve or trendline retest). Use volume confirmation — don’t trade against low-volume rejections at resistance. Watch emotional extremes — FOMO at targets often precedes reversal. Plan for both scenarios: Continuation → scale partial profits at target Reversal → shift bias if bearish confirmation aligns with momentum loss 🔖 Summary Outlook ✅ Trend: Bullish continuation, respecting structure 🎯 Immediate Focus: Reaching the 0.0072 Target + Next Reversal Zone 🔄 Actionable Tip: Monitor for rejection/absorption candles in the upper blue zone 💼 Risk Management: Use curve break or engulfing reversal as an exit trigger This setup reflects high technical confluence and fits into a longer-term institutional roadmap. Whether you're swing trading or intraday scaling within this wave — the logic remains powerful.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: 110k RejectionAfter the powerful rally that began in the last quarter of 2024, Bitcoin is now at a critical market juncture. The price has once again reached the 106,000–110,000 USD zone, an area that already showed strong signs of distribution back in February and March 2025. This isn’t just a typical resistance level—it’s a psychologically loaded zone, marked by previous highs and repeated selling pressure. In May, the monthly candle revealed a clear rejection from this zone: a prominent upper wick and a bearish body, signaling the bulls' struggle to sustain new highs. This behavior suggests the beginning of a profit-taking phase or, more likely, a medium-term consolidation. The picture becomes even more complex when we look at the COT Report dated May 27, 2025. Non-commercial institutional traders—speculative funds, hedge funds, and portfolio managers—have significantly increased their short positions, now exceeding 26,800 contracts. Meanwhile, long positions are hovering around 24,500, resulting in a net bearish exposure. The message is clear: smart money isn’t buying the breakout—it's selling into it. Seasonality analysis reinforces this narrative. Historically, June tends to be a weak month for Bitcoin, often followed by renewed strength in the next quarter. The 2025 seasonal curve has mirrored the bullish pattern of 2021 up to May, but now—consistent with historical patterns—is showing signs of slowing. This supports the idea that the market might need a breather before potentially rallying again in Q3. From a technical standpoint, the key levels are well defined. The 95,000–97,000 USD area is the first dynamic support zone, where the price might find short-term relief. However, the more significant support lies between 82,000 and 85,000 USD—this is the origin of the current rally and aligns with the old breakout structure. A return to this level would represent a healthy and natural correction within a still structurally bullish long-term context. In summary, the current outlook calls for caution. Momentum is fading, seasonality is unfavorable, and institutional players are trimming long exposure while adding to shorts. Until the price can consolidate above 110,500 USD, the dominant scenario remains a corrective pullback, with interim targets at 95k and potential drops toward the 85k zone. However, if the market surprises with a strong weekly close above the highs, it could pave the way for a new leg up toward the 125,000–135,000 USD range—potentially fueled by macro catalysts such as ETF inflows, Fed narratives, or broader adoption.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
US 10Y TREASURY: eased inflation expectationsTrade tariffs continue to gain a lot of investors attention, but they are slowly turning to actual macro data and inflation expectations in the future period. Uncertainty over the future impact of imposed trade tariffs of the US Administration is still present, but it becomes evident that investors are becoming tired of reactions on tweets, and are much more switching attention to actual data. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final data for May, posted during the previous week, showed moderately decreased inflation expectations for the period of next five years. Data showed that US consumers are expecting five years inflation at the level of 4,2%, which was also below market estimate of 4,6%. The 10Y US Treasury yields eased a bit during the previous week, currently testing the 4,4% level. The starting weekly point was at 4,53%. Considering the relatively significant drop during the week, there is some probability for the short reversal during the week ahead, at least till the level of 4,5%. It should also be considered that the week ahead macro data will put in focus jobs data and NFP, which might imply a bit higher volatility.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Gold: aligning with USDThe price of gold returned to its alignment path with the US Dollar during the previous week. This might be treated as one of the first indications that the tensions and uncertainties among investors are slowly fading. In line with US Dollar mixed weekly moves, so the price of gold has its mixed trading week. The week started around the level of $3.355, but for the rest of time was traded mostly to the downside, ending the week at the level of $3.287. The lowest weekly level was achieved on Thursday, shortly touching the $3.252 level. The RSI also moved in a mixed manner, mostly between levels of 57 and 52. However, there was no change with MA50 and MA200 lines, which are still moving as two parallel lines with an uptrend. This represents one of the longest streaks of MA lines as parallel lines, where the MA50 became the support line for gold minimums on a daily chart. For the week ahead charts are showing increased probability for further correction of the price of gold, but only till the level of $3.250. This level was also shortly tested on Thursday, and might be tested for one more time. Just in case that this level is breached further to the downside, then the next support line would be around $3,2K. At this moment, charts are showing decreased probability for such a move. A short term reversal from current levels is also probable, but not above the $3.360. This level would mark another testing of highs reached during the previous week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
SPX: tariffs weekly tweet updateThe US Administration trade tariffs continue to bring confusion among market participants, but despite this, the S&P 500 managed to end May with a gain of 6,2%. The tariff-weekly-news included the announcement of the US President on social media that China “violated” current tariffs agreement. Although there were no further explanations, Bloomberg published information from an uncited source, that the US is planning to bring tariffs to China tech sector. At the same time, there was no official confirmation from the US Administration. The European Union is considering countermeasures on the US, after the announcement of the US Administration on an increase of tariffs on steel from 25% to 50%. All these ping-pong tariffs measures from the last period are causing some investors to slowly lose temper, with comments like “If you are an investor, you want to bet on good earnings, not good tweets about tariffs”, as Jay Hatfild from Infrastructure Capital Management told to CNBC. This brings some confidence that the markets will not make stronger moves on tweets, but only to actual moves of the US Administration in the coming period. Trading during May might provide some confidence also for the future period. In line with investors, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment showed some relaxation with the final May data. The indicator ended the month at the level of 52,2 a bit better from estimated 51. The most important are inflation expectations which also eased a bit from previous release, in which sense five year inflation expectations are currently at 4,2%, and below market estimate of 4,6%. The market confusion will most certainly continue also during June, but it seems at the lower volatility levels. More attention will be turned to macro data, and company earnings. The first trading week in June is bringing US jobs data, including the Non-farm payrolls, which might bring back some volatility on US equity markets.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX