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Fundamental Analysis

GOLD → Consolidation after a trend break...FX:XAUUSD , after breaking out of a downtrend, is consolidating, which may continue for some time due to Thursday's news and low liquidity on Friday. Gold stabilized after a correction, but volatility risks remain. After falling from a weekly high of $3,366, gold prices found demand again in Asia on Friday. Strong US employment data cooled expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, which supported the dollar and limited gold's gains. Additional pressure is coming from the hawkish shift in Fed expectations, but US budget risks and weak liquidity due to the holidays could increase price volatility in the coming days. Technically, the focus is on the boundaries of the current consolidation at 3311 and 3357. In addition, within the range there is an important level of 3325, which divides the market into bearish and bullish zones... Resistance levels: 3350, 3357, 3393 Support levels: 3325, 3311 It is important to understand the situation: due to the holiday in the US, liquidity is lower, making it easier to move the price. The rest of the world, interested in gold, can easily push the price up. The trigger will be the zone 3350 - 3350. There is a chance that the market will try to break through the resistance without a pullback and continue to rise to 3393. However, the most likely scenario is that after yesterday's volatility, gold will remain within 3325 - 3357 before rising next week Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
Bitcoin has dropped for profitable purchasesBitcoin is within the range. Quite a bit of time has passed since the last retest, and the liquidity pool that has formed below 106345 may not allow the price to fall on the first attempt. Global and local trends are bullish. Enter a buy position after a false breakout of support and the formation of a local reversal pattern on TF m5-m15 Scenario: if, after a false breakout, price consolidation forms above 106500, then the entry point could be a breakout of local highs (breakout of the structure - ‘bos’).
Long
by AndeWave
7
Non-farm data exceeded expectations. Will prices fall temporarilInformation summary: Affected by the US Independence Day, the June non-farm data was released in advance. This non-farm data surprised the market, far below expectations and previous values, with a significant increase in employment exceeding expectations and previous values, and a sharp drop in unemployment to 4.1%. The market bet that the July rate cut plan would be directly scrapped. After the employment data was released, the gold price quickly plummeted to $3,312, but the sharp drop in the market had poor continuity and ultimately did not form a unilateral decline. Market analysis: Due to the US Independence Day holiday, the US market was closed. In fact, the only thing left for us is the Asian and European markets. And today is the last trading day of this week, and the market is likely to maintain a state of consolidation. From the 1-hour chart, the price fell after testing the 3,360 high twice. The negative impact of the non-farm data accelerated the decline, and the decline did not continue, and a new support level was formed near 3,323 after the decline. At present, the price is impacting around 3,345, and the bulls are expected to rebound upward and return to the upward trend. I think the current market continues to rebound, with the lower low of 3323 as the dividing point, and high sell and low buy operations in the consolidation area of ​​3320-3350. This is the last trading day of this week. I wish all traders a perfect ending and a perfect weekend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid_1
GBPCAD → Retest the area of interest before growthFX:GBPCAD is closing the imbalance area as part of a countertrend correction and consolidating below the 0.5 Fibonacci level. What's next, growth or decline? The global trend is upward, and the situation is classic: the market needs energy and liquidity to continue growing. Locally, we see that as part of a countertrend correction, the market is closing the imbalance area, but at the same time forming consolidation below 0.5 Fibonacci, still leaving the zone of interest and order block below 1.84600 untouched. Technically, there is a fairly high probability of continued growth, provided that the price ends its consolidation with a breakout of the 1.85690 resistance and consolidates above 0.5 Fibonacci. Resistance levels: 1.85690, 1.8657 Support levels: 1.84986, 1.846, 1.8417 However, as an additional and, in my opinion, the most important scenario, I still consider a complete closure of the fvg and a retest of the 0.7-0.79 zone, within which the order block is located. A false breakdown of the zone of interest and the capture of liquidity could attract additional interest, which would trigger growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
9
I like Wendy's lolI like Wendy's as a long term investment and here's why... The fundamentals are pretty solid. They've had a rising EPS for 5 years, and a falling stock price for years. They also have a stable growing dividend. Their debt situation is stable. In the last month there has been a large volume of insider buying, the most notable of which is insider John Mihn, Chief Legal Officer, with a share delta of 328%. Back in may Point 72 dropped a 13F that showed a 108% share delta on their position compared to Blackrock and Trian that are only slightly shaving their positions. In terms of current price. It is bouncing around its 3 and 5 year lows and there is strong historical buying starting at $8 and ending at around $11. I consider it a big zone of support and the 5 year low is nestled a little above the midpoint of this zone. In terms of a buying strategy...just DCA it. Buy like a share a week or whatever fits your personal risk. The price may fall a little further. August is slow for the restaurant industry. I wouldn't expect this to experience the buying it deserves, retail or institutional, until after August. This could also serve as a trade catalyst for people looking for margin or options action. Might come in September when their next earning call drops. I would be prepared to DCA for six months though. That's how I treat all of these situations.
NASDAQ:WENLong
by Somenurd
Gold fluctuates during the day, short-term profits will be left 📌Main driving events of gold The big non-agricultural data in the United States caused the gold price to fall by almost 40 US dollars in one breath, but after a short emotional storm, the market returned to calm. Today's market began to bottom out and rise. As of now, the non-agricultural market has been backed by 50%, and the energy of the shorts has been basically digested. Next, the bulls will start to exert their strength! Today's direction is still the same and continue to be bullish! 📊Comment analysis In the US market, the gold price rebounded after the decline and the bottom of the second retracement appeared. The support level is 3322. After a night of fluctuations, gold has begun to rise, and the low point has begun to rise. The key point of the day is still 3323. In the morning, we wait for the gold price to fall back to around 3323 and we will buy the bottom and go long. We don’t expect to surpass yesterday’s high point during the day, but at least it will go to 3350! 💰Strategy Package Long position: Gold long at 3322-3327, stop loss 3315, target 3350-3360 ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
Solana Will Grow Despite "3,200% Rally"Oh my god! Folks, this friend of ours is saying Solana is going down because of a "3,200% rally." Crazy stuff. Can it continue growing after a 3,200% rally? But he is ignoring a massive correction between January and April. How big is the correction you ask? 67%. Meaning, there is no need to mention the previous rally because it has been corrected already. Ok, hold on... Let's breatheeeeee deeply first. Solana ETFs. Growing Cryptocurrency market. Global adoption. Old finance finally waking up to the new financial system. Even banks are starting to buy Crypto and opening up a ramp for their customers to buy Crypto, Solana, using their savings and other funds. This is why it will grow. Think of this. Think of Apple, Inc. when it was young. Think of Tesla and Google and Microsoft. Would you quit after a 3,000% rally? Well, these companies are still growing today. Crypto is no different, it will grow for decades to come. Solana is going up. 100% certainty, you can see it on the chart; the fundamentals as well. Get on board the bullish train, it is not too late. Everything money goes into Crypto. You will be happy with the results. If you stay out, your loss. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
Prediction for EUR/USD Sell Setup (Short from 1.1825–1.1830) Why? • Price recently broke down from an ascending channel (seen on your TradingView screenshot). • Confirmed lower high structure (bearish). • Rejection from previous resistance near 1.1830 is likely. • Fibonacci retracement shows 1.1830 aligns with key 78.6% reversal zone. • DXY (USD Index) strength supports EUR/USD downside pressure. • Clean downside liquidity resting near 1.1700 and possibly 1.1630. ⚠️ Buy Setup (Long from 1.1745–1.1750) • Confidence: ⚪ 78% • Why Lower? • Although 1.1745 is solid support, it is being retested too frequently. • Momentum is weakening. • If price stalls and fails to bounce strongly off 1.1750, it risks collapsing to 1.1700 or lower. • MACD/Volume divergence showing early bearish bias on M15/M30 timeframes. ⸻ 🧠 Verdict: • Short trade from 1.1825–1.1830 has higher probability based on current structure and momentum. • This would be a sell-the-retest opportunity of the broken ascending channel. • Hold to TP1 = 1.1745, and TP2 = 1.1700, with clean smart trail logic activated after TP1. Then wait for reversal triggers and initiate sell long setup
Short
by leancarti47
1
EUR/USD: A Perfect Storm for BullsThis is a high-conviction long setup based on a powerful combination of macroeconomic divergence and a confirmed multi-year technical breakout. The Non-Farm Payrolls report has now been released, and the resulting price dip has created what I believe is an ideal entry opportunity to align with the dominant bullish trend. The Fundamental Why 📰 NFP Aftermath: Yesterday's NFP report was a mixed bag that ultimately reinforces the case for Fed rate cuts. The headline number beat expectations, causing an initial USD rally and a dip in EUR/USD. However, the underlying details like wage growth were soft. Crucially, the market continues to price in a 96% probability of a Fed rate cut by September, a figure that was unchanged by the data. The core driver of USD weakness—a dovish Fed—remains firmly intact. Resilient EUR 🇪🇺: In contrast, the ECB has signaled it is at or near the end of its easing cycle. Economic data from core Eurozone countries is stabilizing, providing the Euro with relative strength. Risk-On Sentiment 💹: The broader market remains in a "risk-on" mood, which is typically negative for the safe-haven USD. Gold is soaring and equities are near all-time highs, confirming the anti-dollar flow. The Technical Picture 📊 The Secular Breakout 🚀: The most significant event is the breakout of a decade-long downtrend resistance line. This is a major structural shift. The pair has also achieved a monthly and quarterly close above the critical 1.1500 handle, turning a historic resistance level into a new support floor. The Impulsive Uptrend 🌊: On the 4-hour chart, the price is in a clear ascending channel. The post-NFP dip represents a healthy correction within this uptrend, bringing price back toward key support. Key Levels 🔑: Support Zone: The dip has brought price directly into the key support confluence between 1.1700 and 1.1760, making this an ideal area to enter long. Resistance Zone: Major resistance still sits at 1.1900, making it a prudent take-profit target. Strategy & Risk Management 🧠 The stronger-than-expected NFP headline has provided the exact pullback this strategy was designed for. The dip presents a prime opportunity to buy into the dominant uptrend at a more favorable price. Instead of chasing the market, we are now positioned to enter on a technically sound correction. Good luck, and trade safe! Trade Parameters ✅ Pair: EUR/USD Direction: Long / Buy 🟢 Entry Type: Limit Order Entry Price: 1.1745 Stop-Loss: 1.1685 (60 pips) 🔴 Take-Profit: 1.1895 (150 pips) 🎯 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.5 : 1
Long
by MaxellAguiran
1
$META Braces for Market HeadwindsWhile the NASDAQ is flirting with putting a double-top in, technology companies like NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOGL and NASDAQ:META are increasing CapEx spend for future Ai infrastructure. Margin compression is likely to result with a smaller hit from energy costs - estimated at about 1% of revenue - as energy demand for compute continues to leap forward and future executive action from the Trump administration threatens to kneecap the ITC with modified "placed-in-service" dates and onerous FEOC requirements, eliminating targeted tax subsidies on solar and redistributing the costs to energy more broadly. NASDAQ:META will not likely see the benefits of its CapEx spend anytime soon. The ratio continues to widen between the NASDAQ:NDX and AMEX:SPY , indicating a higher probability of mean-reverting behavior. While QE and open-market operations have tended to be steepening for technology companies after the dotcom bust and beginning during the GFC, the segment is likely exhausted. We have not yet seen a larger retrace since unprecedented yield inversions starting in '22. If we see a large market correction, a markdown in share price and any drop in advertising - META's largest revenue driver - will likely compound bearish sentiment. Tariff effects have yet to reported meaningfully in economic data and the job market is cooling. Inflation is likely to stick at 3%. Stagflation is on the table. What a time to be alive. ~s
NASDAQ:METAShort
by shleyford
3
USA Economy Long-Term Outlook:The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy , as of mid-2025, is characterized by several key factors and some uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and monetary policy. GDP Growth: The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2025 (down 0.2-0.5% GDP), the first in three years, partly due to a surge in imports and a sharp cutback in consumer spending. Economists anticipate a bounce back in Q2 2025 (forecasted at 3% growth). However, the overall expectation for 2025 is for growth to decelerate significantly (e.g., Vanguard projects 1.5% GDP growth for year-end 2025, EY forecasts 1.5%, Trading Economics 1.7%, J.P. Morgan 2.1%). The second half of 2025 is expected to see a "pronounced demand cliff" due to front-loaded purchases ahead of anticipated trade restrictions. Inflation: Tariffs are a significant factor impacting inflation. CPI growth is expected to average around 2.9% in 2025 and potentially accelerate to 3.2% in 2026, moderating to around 2.3% by 2029 (Deloitte). Core PCE inflation is expected to climb to the 2.8-3.0% range year-over-year in Q3 2025 - Q3 2026 as tariffs filter through the economy (University of Michigan). The Federal Reserve is closely watching tariff-induced price spikes. Interest Rates/Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is likely on hold with interest rates for now, but two more rate cuts are anticipated later in 2025 if the labor market remains stable (Vanguard). Some forecasts suggest the Fed will resume cutting rates in July 2025, reaching a terminal range of 3.25-3.5% by mid-2026 (University of Michigan). However, the uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on inflation could influence the Fed's decisions. Labor Market: The labor market has been cooling but remains stable. The unemployment rate is expected to increase throughout 2025, potentially reaching 4.3% (Morningstar), 4.7% (Vanguard), or even 4.8% by year-end (EY). Job gains are predicted to decelerate significantly in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs. Tariffs: Tariffs are a major source of uncertainty. While some recent de-escalation in trade policy with China has led to positive revisions in the outlook, the long-term impact of tariffs remains a concern, with potential to lower GDP growth, raise inflation, and weaken the labor market. The expectation is that tariffs will be at least modestly higher than at the start of 2025. In essence, the long-term economic forecast for the USA suggests continued growth, but at a more moderate pace than recent years, with ongoing vigilance required for inflation and labor market dynamics, heavily influenced by evolving tariff policies.
SP:SPX
by ITManager_US
DOGE Short Term pullback prior to breaking trendI am bearish on Dogecoin for the next 10 days or so, but overall bullish to break the downward trend for months now. Waiting for a break above the longterm downward then a retest would be the safest play. A more aggresive approach may be to put some orders in at the recent support levels with a stop loss near the recent lows. Doge is a popular token and meme that has a large following. I think there are many long term holders than any other meme.
Long
by Quant_Trading_Pro