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6/24/25 - $arm - Short $arm, long $nvda trade6/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ARM Short NASDAQ:ARM , long NASDAQ:NVDA trade - the trade that keeps on giving - NASDAQ:ARM on it's NASDAQ:NVDA pair (ARM/NVDA) has only been down and do the right, the chart is not something you'd want to step in front of unless you knew of "why" it would fundamentally change - NASDAQ:ARM trades at a valuation that's 2x NVDA, but the company grows half as fast, has lower margins and generally is size-constrained in a game of scale (TSM will take NVDA all day every day over anyone, incl. ARM demand) - so while it's tough to time "short semis" - and generally I think semis remain the best MT/LT beta in the market mainly because the AI-trade IMHO remains (dystopianly - i know not a word) in the earlier innings than converse... we've just retraced the entire march/april move from lows back to highs? - the market has a super short memory - people are renting their exposure (0dte's). positioning remains stretched. i still like a lot of cash here and good hedges. - but i'm happy to play the pair between arm and nvda. i'm using $150 strikes (same expiry) for both, equally OTM for both, arm on the put side, nvda on the long side - my guess is any sell off in beta pulls arm down 2x the nvda beta and any further move higher could suck oxygen out of a tired arm with worse valuation underpinnings and rotating into nvda (a better "store of value") and leading to nvda dominance on the arm chart (again referencing the ARM/NVDA pair trade... lower... forever) V
NASDAQ:ARMShort
by VROCKSTAR
8
Déjà Vu: Echoes of 2018 in Today’s MarketI’ve spotted a striking resemblance between the current price action and the 2018 market structure. This emerging fractal might be a key to anticipating what comes next. 🧩 Similarities between the 2018–2020 and 2025 corrections AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:MES1! OANDA:SPX500USD CME_MINI:ES1! TVC:SPX : Technical similarities: Drawdown depth: roughly ~21% from peak to bottom Correction shape: similar wave structure — a double zigzag (dZ) Reversal dynamic: V-shaped bottom followed by a smooth, rounded recovery to ATH without sharp retracements Behavior around key MAs: – test of the 200-week MA as support – brief breakdown below the 200-day MA, then quick reclaim (fake-out) Volume profile: increased volume during the selloff, resembling capitulation before reversal 🌍 Key macro parallels: Fed tightening cycle: Both periods saw interest rate hikes and QT against a backdrop of strong economic data. Policy shift: In both cases, Powell started with a hawkish tone and softened it after the correction (2019: “mid-cycle adjustment” with three rate cuts). Strong labor market: Unemployment hovered near 50-year lows (~3.5% in 2019; 3.4% in 2023), suggesting an overheated economy. 🌐 Trade risks: 2018 vs 2025 – 2018: escalation of the US–China trade war – 2025: rising global protectionism, supply chain pressures, and tariffs This leads to higher costs → margin compression In both cases, risks to global demand and corporate earnings This fractal aligns well with both of my long-term wave count scenarios: Base scenario: We’re inside a large impulse, where wave 3 is experiencing a classic extension. This implies the bull market could stretch into the 2030s, with smoother phases of growth and distribution. In this view, the current structure resembles a second wave forming as an rFL. Alternative scenario: The ongoing correction is wave 4 of a large cycle. After this volatile phase, a final rally — the terminal wave of this supercycle — is expected to follow.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by shakatrade1_618
2
Gold is obviously suppressed, so we must go short!Yesterday, gold continued to fluctuate and fall under pressure at the 3360 mark. The US market further accelerated downward to break through the 3300 integer mark and reached a weak closing near 3295. The daily K-line closed with a suppressed fall and broke the bottom of the middle shadow. The overall gold price continued to fluctuate and fall in a weak rhythm. After reaching the lowest level of 3295, it rebounded and closed at 3323. Today, it opened at 3324. As of now, it has reached the highest level of 3337. At present, we are focusing on the suppression of 3340-3348. If the rebound is under pressure, we can still intervene in short orders. The recent market trends are basically the same - bottoming out and rebounding. In terms of operation, continue to keep shorting under pressure and long positions after bottoming out and rebounding. From the current market trend, today's upper short-term resistance focuses on the 3338-3342 area. If it rebounds to this range and is under pressure, you can consider choosing an opportunity to arrange short orders. The lower support focuses on the 3315-3305 line. If it falls back and stabilizes, there is a possibility of a short-term rebound. The overall situation is still in a range-bound structure. It is recommended to focus on key points, buy high and sell low, follow the trend, and strictly control risks. For more specific operation points, please pay attention to the 🌐 notification at the bottom.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
XAUUSD Expecting Selling movementPrice Level & Trend Current price $3380 The market has been forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a bearish trend continuation A yellow zigzag line projects a possible downward price movement path Resistance Zone A red rectangular zone marks a strong resistance area, previously tested multiple times and rejected Price failed to break above this zone, reinforcing the bearish outlook Support & Target Levels Three significant horizontal support levels are marked Level 1 $3,368 Level 2 $3,356 Final Target Zone Around $3344 $3344 The final target is emphasized with an orange Target label and arrow, indicating the expected destination for this bearish move Projection The chart anticipates short-term pullbacks retracements followed by further downside This is visualized through the yellow zigzag pattern illustrating probable future price action
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GOLD_FORCAST_PROVIDER
1
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0. If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown. Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time. It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year. The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market. The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending). Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities. What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years. All the best, Tim April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
TVC:DXYShort
by timwest
5
Oxford Industries | OXM | Long at $38.10Oxford Industries NYSE:OXM is an apparel company that designs, sources, markets, and distributes lifestyle brands like Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Southern Tide. While I am not super bullish on the retail sector given the blaring recession signals, I also don't think this is the end of life as we know it... the anticipated downside is already priced-in for many retail brands. From a technical analysis perspective, NYSE:OXM has entered my "crash" simple moving average zone. Typically, but not always, this is an area where value investors accumulate shares in anticipation of a future rise in share price. While the price is likely to dip near $28-$30 in the near-term, the last open price gap on the daily chart since the COVID-19 pandemic was closed today. Also, last week, an NYSE:OXM Officer and the CEO bought just over $600,000 in shares near $40 and the stock is currently trading at book value. Fundamentals: P/E = 7.4x (apparel sector average = 22.4x) Forward P/E = 11.4x Dividend = 7.25% Debt-to-equity = .2x (healthy) Regardless of some strong fundamentals, persistent macro volatility, consumer caution, and tariff pressures may delay recovery. Analysts expect flat to declining sales in 2025, with limited organic growth. Like I mentioned above, while there is likely short-term pain here, the fundamentals are there to potentially weather the storm. Thus, at $38.10, NYSE:OXM is in a personal buy zone with the further decline between $28-$30 likely (where additional share accumulation will occur as long as the fundamentals do not change). Targets into 2027 $45.00 (+18.0%) $50.00 (+31.2%)
NYSE:OXMLong
by WorthlessViews
Silicon (SLAB)–Leading the Charge in Next-Gen IoT InfrastructureCompany Overview: Silicon NASDAQ:SLAB Laboratories is a top-tier fabless semiconductor firm, specializing in low-power mixed-signal ICs and connectivity software for IoT, industrial, automotive, and consumer applications. With deep OEM integration, it’s a pivotal player in the connected devices ecosystem. Key Catalysts: Long-Term Growth Strategy 🚀 Management is targeting 20%+ long-term revenue growth, outpacing the broader IoT sector (mid-teens CAGR). Fueled by megatrends in smart cities, connected health, and industrial automation. $10B+ in Design Wins 🔧 Over $10 billion in cumulative design wins across Bluetooth, Zigbee, Thread, Z-Wave, and Wi-Fi platforms. These wins translate to $2–2.5B in annualized revenue potential, reinforcing deep OEM trust and product stickiness. Next-Gen Series 3 SoCs 💡 Built on 22nm technology, delivering up to 100x more compute power. Enhanced security and AI/ML-ready, enabling real-time edge intelligence across smart meters, wearables, and industrial sensors. Investment Outlook: Bullish Case: We are bullish on SLAB above $121.00–$122.00. Upside Target: $200.00–$210.00, driven by design momentum, IoT innovation leadership, and expanding addressable market. 🧠 SLAB is not just riding the IoT wave—it’s helping build the surfboard. #SiliconLabs #SLAB #IoT #Semiconductors #SmartDevices #AIatTheEdge #Bluetooth #Zigbee #Thread #WirelessTech #IndustrialAutomation #Bullish #ConnectedFuture
NASDAQ:SLABLong
by Richtv_official
TSLA Honey Ticking Bull Trap! UPDATE 1This is an updated chart, as I keep being prompted to reach "My Target" by TV. No matter how bad things get for Elona and TSLA, there are always people who are willing to pile in and buy at any price. The problem is the chart is showing lower highs, as TSLA no longer attracts the people needed to boost price, just like TSLA the brand. As a result, people keep getting honey ticked. Don't Get HONEY TICKED! As I always say, never EVER!! Invest in toxic people like Elona. They always blow themselves up in the end. It's in their nature! Click Boost, Follow, subscribe, and let's reach 5,000 followers. ;)
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by RealMacro
WTI looks to end bearish run after bullish inventories dataWe have had some more bullish oil news from the weekly US inventories report. It remains to be seen whether the news is enough to lift the oil price. Following the API data overnight we had even more bullish-looking official inventories report from the US Department of Energy. The fact that crude stocks fell for the 5th straight week certainly points to strong demand, pushing stockpiles to their lowest levels since January. As well as the big headline draw, stocks of crude products fell sharply too. The 2 million barrel draw in gasoline inventories was much higher than the API report, and suggests the driving season is well and truly at full steam, when demand for gasoline tends to rise. In case you missed it, the DoE reported the following numbers: • Crude -5.84mm • Cushing -464k • Gasoline -2.08mm • Distillates -4.07mm Whether or not oil can now stage a meaningful rebound remains to be seen. It has certainly lost its entire risk premium associated with the Iran-Israel conflict. Perhaps it is up to the OPEC+ now to decide with the alliance due to hold discussions on July 6 to consider a further supply boost in August. Any hints of a slower supply boost could provide support to prices. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Ather’s Affordable EV Announcement Triggers Market Rally...Technical Analysis: Ather Energy has successfully broken above the key resistance level of ₹330 and is currently trading around ₹340. This breakout is supported by a noticeable surge in volume, confirming bullish momentum. The ₹330 level, which previously acted as a strong resistance, may now serve as a potential support in the event of a retest. Traders and investors can look for buying opportunities on dips near ₹330, while those already holding the stock are advised to continue holding for further upside. Fundamental Analysis: From a fundamental standpoint, Ather’s maiden quarterly results have been encouraging. The company reported a one-third increase in revenue, while its EBITDA loss narrowed to ₹172 crore, down from ₹239 crore in the same quarter last year. This marks a significant step towards operational efficiency and profitability. Adding to the positive sentiment, Ather recently announced that it will unveil its new EL EV platform and upcoming concept models in August 2025. The highlight of this announcement is that the new scooter will be Ather’s most affordable offering, signaling a strategic push to expand market penetration and compete in the mass segment of the EV market. Conclusion: The breakout at ₹330, supported by improving financial performance and strong product pipeline news, suggests a bullish outlook for Ather Energy in the near term. Investors should monitor the ₹330 level for price retest and accumulation opportunities. Holding is recommended for existing investors, while fresh entries can be considered on technical confirmation around support zones. Note: Due to ongoing global uncertainties, market conditions may remain volatile. Investors are advised to exercise caution and manage risk accordingly.
NSE:ATHERENERG
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar. There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here. I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern. I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see. I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty. Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms. Wishing everyone peace and prosperity! Tim West 11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
3
Australia's CPI slows, raising rate cut expectationsThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6495, up 0.08% on the day. Australia's inflation rate headed lower in May. Headline CPI rose 2.1%, after gains of 2.4% in the previous three months. This was below the market estimate of 2.3%. Monthly, CPI eased to 0.4%, driven by lower petrol and housing costs. The key core CPI indicator, annual trimmed mean inflation, also dropped sharply, to 2.4% from 2.8%, its lowest level since Nov. 2021. The soft inflation report has boosted the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower rates at the July meeting. The markets have priced in a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut, up from 81% prior to the inflation release. The markets have priced in three more rate cuts this year, following rate cuts in February and May. The markets are counting on the RBA to be dovish in the second half of 2025. With inflation not only within the RBA's target of 2-3% but also falling, the markets expect that the RBA will be keen to lower rates in order to preserve economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Powell testified before a House Committee on Tuesday and had a cautious message for lawmakers. Powell said that the Fed was committed to keeping inflation contained and that the Fed planned to maintain rates until the impact of tariffs on inflation was more clear and reiterated that inflation still remained above the Fed's 2% target. Powell has faced blistering criticism from President Trump for not lowering rates. In his testimony, Powell said that Trump's attacks were "having no effects" on Fed policy. AUD/USD pushed above resistance at 1.3726 and is testing resistance at 1.3727. Above, there is resistance at 1.3750 1.3713 and 1.3702 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Leu data i have been watching for Squeeze power Short Interest: 2.92M shares (18.6% of float) Days-to-Cover: ~1.7–3.3 days Borrow Rate (APR): ~0.49% Put/Call Open Interest Ratio: ~0.88 Volume Put/Call Ratio: ~1.06 30-day Implied Volatility: ~87% IV Rank: ~61 Suggested Re-Entry Zone: $177.00–$180.00 range (near lower trendline and prior support zone) Short-Term Price Target: $196–$200 retest (lower high) Breakout Price Target: $210.98+ (previous peak); continuation possible if short covering ignites Note: The chart shows a descending wedge pattern forming with high volume flushes into support — historically a bullish setup if it reclaims and holds above $185. A strong close above $191.77 can re-ignite momentum.
AMEX:LEULong
by Tommy150
Safe Entry Zone GTLBStock in Ranging Movement. Stock current at SIGNIFICANT Support Level. My Beloved Gathie Wood's Best investor ever just bought the stock too. P.High's & P.Lows(Previous Highs & Previous Lows) acts as good Support and resistances levels. 4h Green Zone Is Buying Zone. 4h Red Zone is Selling Zone. In case Break Throught red Zone stock will change to UP-Movement and Vice Versa. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NASDAQ:GTLBLong
by Faisalzor
Safe Entry Zone AMBABeautiful Movement price Ranging. Current price at 1h Green Zone act as Good Support level, But with current situation of news its risky play to get in unless general news changes and calm down. We Have Out Strongest and the Support level that price will respect is the 4h Green Zone in case the 1h didn't hold at current price level. We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NASDAQ:AMBA
by Faisalzor
Safe Entry Zone LuLuStock current at SIGNIFICANT Support Level. P.High's & P.Lows(Previous Highs & Previous Lows) acts as good Support and resistances levels. 1D Green Zone Is Buying Zone. 1D Red Zone is Selling Zone. Take Profit Line is where you may secure Profit in case any selling Pressure showed-up near the Line it acts as Resistance level an dangerous Zone In case Break Through red Zone stock will change to UP-Movement and Vice Versa. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NASDAQ:LULULong
by Faisalzor
Safe Entry Zone MDBPrice Reached good Support Level. Waiting for Buyers to step-in in Case no Buying Power Showed -Up we will be targeting Green Zone As Safest Entry Zone and Strongest Support level. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NASDAQ:MDB
by Faisalzor
3
CC | Long (Sector Rotation Test) | Deep Value| (June 25, 2025)SSL & CC | Direction: Long (Sector Rotation Test) | Key Reason: Deep Value vs. Debt-Stressed Growth | (June 25, 2025) 1️⃣ Insight Summary Both SSL and CC operate in the chemicals sector and have compelling trade angles. SSL offers a deep-value bounce opportunity, while CC presents a more speculative, debt-heavy setup with potential delayed upside. This setup is perfect for testing how debt and cash flow influence mid-term performance in cyclical sectors. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters SSL (Sasol Limited) Entry: Already active (around $4.50) Stop Loss: Below $1.00 TP1: $8.00 TP2: $13.50 TP3: $16.96 Max Target: $25.00 CC (Chemours Company) Entry: Delay by 2–3 months (monitor technical base) Stop Loss: Will depend on entry price (estimate below $16) TP (Potential if momentum builds): ~$27, $33, and $40 3️⃣ Key Notes ✅ SSL Strengths: Higher revenue ($14B+) Lower market cap (~$2.9B), creating a value dislocation Operates in essential energy/chemical exports—especially relevant to Africa ❌ SSL Risks: Large debt, limited dividend, volatile performance Must clear resistance near $8.00 for higher confidence ✅ CC Strengths: $5B revenue and $800M net income looks strong on paper Operates in advanced materials—semiconductors, plastics, energy efficiency Technically might base in 2–3 months, giving entry on momentum ❌ CC Risks: 4️⃣ Follow-up Plan We'll run both trades as a sector test: SSL now, CC later (when price action confirms). If debt burden really suppresses upside, SSL should outperform. If risk-on sentiment returns, CC could surprise late Q3/Q4. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI
NYSE:CCLong
by Risk_Adj_Return
Your investor profileEach investor has unique characteristics: The amount of their current investments and savings Their capacity to generate future income and allocate it to savings Their personal and financial circumstances that may condition their liquidity needs Their motivations and objectives for saving Their discipline Their willingness to learn The time available for monitoring Their knowledge and experience Their risk aversion All these characteristics are called investor profile . Unless all these characteristics of your profile change, you must stay true to your investor profile. Bullish market environments are a temptation to take on more risk than we should. It is also important to keep in mind that your investor profile changes with your life cycle . While it’s great to share experiences, your investor profile is unique . When making your decisions, take advice based on your individual characteristics. It is very important that you seek advice from trusted platforms and professionals and pay special attention to ensure that there is no clear commercial bias that could lead you to certain products or operations that may not suit your investor profile. It is not a wise decision to copy from others : friends or forums created by entities with an obvious commercial bias, because your investor profile is unique. Did you like it? Share with your friends. by HollyMontt
SP:SPXEducation
by hollymontt
1