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Fundamental Analysis

Crude turns upCrude prices shot higher overnight following news that OPEC+ has delayed an expected production increase. Both Brent and WTI were up around 3% on the news, even though the announced delay is only for a month. This has taken front-move crude back up to an area of resistance around $71.50-72.00. If it can push above this region convincingly, and then hold it on any pullback, then this starts to improve the immediate outlook as far as the bulls are concerned. The daily MACD has started to turn up a touch, and while it remains in negative territory, this suggests an uptick in upside momentum. There has also been some relief that Iran did not take the opportunity over the weekend to launch an attack on Israel in retaliation for the Israeli attack the week before. Prices had jumped on Thursday evening after Israeli intelligence reported that Iran was planning to attack Isreal from its bases within Iraq.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation
EUR/USD Surges as U.S. Political Uncertainty Ahead of Key EventsDuring Monday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair is making headlines by hovering around the 1.0900 mark. With an ambitious target of 1.09780 in sight, this major currency pair is showing a notable surge at the expense of the U.S. Dollar (USD). This movement comes amid rising uncertainty as the United States approaches its presidential election on Tuesday, alongside the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting later in the week. A Bearish Start for the U.S. Dollar As the new week begins, the U.S. Dollar is experiencing a bearish trend, reflected in the decline of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Market participants are especially focused on the tight race shaping up between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, fueling a climate of uncertainty around the election outcomes. The anticipation surrounding the elections appears to have contributed to a flight from the dollar, as traders brace for potential volatility based on the implications of the election results. Technical Analysis: No Major Changes From a technical perspective, the current market behavior reflects continuity rather than change. Price levels remain largely similar to those observed in previous weeks, suggesting a moment of stabilization as traders await catalysts that could lead to clearer directional moves. Additionally, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that the positioning of traders has not changed significantly, continuing to reflect the trends seen last week. Preparing for Election Aftermath As the market gears up for the immediate aftermath of the elections, traders should be prepared for substantial fluctuations. The uncertainty regarding the election outcomes and the potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy are poised to create considerable movement across various asset classes. Depending on who emerges victorious, expectations for fiscal strategies, regulatory changes, and economic recovery plans may influence market sentiment and asset performance for weeks to come. Conclusion In conclusion, the EUR/USD's rise toward the 1.09780 target reflects broader market dynamics influenced by political uncertainty in the United States. As participants navigate this complex landscape, the interplay between election outcomes and central bank policies will be crucial to the future trajectory of the currency pair. Traders are advised to remain vigilant, as upcoming events could lead to significant volatility, reshaping market expectations and price actions in the process. Previous Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Starts Tuesday with Optimism Amid Mixed Dollar StrengthThe EUR/USD pair opened Tuesday with a positive sentiment, trading at 1.08230 as of this writing. This follows a shaky start to the week for the US Dollar (USD), which initially showed strength but saw limited momentum as investors opted for caution, especially in the absence of major economic data or fundamental drivers early in the week. ECB’s Cautious Tone Amid Inflation Progress On Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos offered insights into the central bank’s view on inflation, noting that while there has been substantial progress in reducing inflation, it's premature to assume that the battle is over. His statements suggested that the ECB will maintain a flexible stance on monetary policy, leaving room for adjustments depending on economic developments. This cautious, yet open stance by the ECB may lend some support to the euro, as markets interpret the ECB's careful monitoring of inflation as a signal that interest rate hikes could still be in the realm of possibility. Focus on U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Data Later in the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the JOLTS Job Openings data for September, which may influence USD sentiment. Markets are anticipating job openings to slightly decrease to 7.99 million, from 8.04 million in August. However, should the reading exceed expectations, particularly if it reaches 8.5 million or higher, it could reinforce USD strength as it would indicate continued labor market resilience—a key factor for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Conversely, a reading below 7.5 million might dampen USD appeal, as it would suggest cooling in the labor market, potentially leading the Fed to reconsider its tightening pace. Technical Overview: EUR/USD Positioned Near Demand Zone From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is showing some resilience around a demand zone, though it isn’t the strongest of support levels. The pair’s recent reaction in this area suggests some buying interest that could offer temporary support. Given this positioning, a long position might be worth considering if the upcoming JOLTS data provides a supportive backdrop by coming in below expectations, potentially weakening the USD. On the other hand, if the data surprises on the upside, EUR/USD might test lower levels, and the demand zone’s strength could be challenged. Conclusion In summary, the EUR/USD outlook today hinges significantly on the JOLTS report, with the euro finding slight support from the ECB's cautious optimism on inflation. A supportive labor report could provide USD strength, but a weaker-than-expected report may favor euro bulls, positioning EUR/USD for further upside near current demand levels. With this dynamic, traders might consider waiting for the JOLTS data before committing to positions, using it as a potential trigger for directionality in this volatile environment. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD The global Camphor market size was valued at USD 479.39 million in 2021 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 3.92 (Percent) during the forecast period, reaching USD 603.63 million by 2027. List of Indian TOP Manufactures in Camphor Market are: - ● Kanchi Karpooram ● Camphor and Allied Products ( Oriental Aromatics LTD) ● Mangalam Organics ● Sapthagiri Camphor ( Unlisted) - Among above 3 Listed scripts OAL and KANCHI shortlisted , Since OAL business is diversified its less risky , But Based on funadmentals Kanchi Karpooram is attractive /Cheap to buy. Market Cap ₹ 1,361 Cr. Current Price ₹ 404 Stock P/E 224 Book Value ₹ 186 Dividend Yield 0.14 % ROCE 5.19 % ROE 3.35 % Face Value ₹ 5.00 Promoter holding 74.2 % EPS last year ₹ 6.13 EPS latest quarter ₹ -1.76 Debt ₹ 231 Cr. Pledged percentage 0.00 % Net CF ₹ 3.33 Cr. Price to Cash Flow -64.0 Free Cash Flow ₹ -57.1 Cr. Debt to equity 0.37 OPM last year 6.46 % OPM 5Year 13.9 % Reserves ₹ 610 Cr. Price to book value 2.16 Int Coverage 1.59 PEG Ratio -29.6 Price to Sales 1.68 Market Cap to Sales 1.68 Qtr Profit Var -169 %
NSE:OALLong
by madhu2811
Bitcoin will trap everyone! 78k then 20% crash! (must see)Bitcoin is currently very bullish; that's clearly visible and soon will hit a new all time high. That's exactly the point where a lot of people will start buying with the belief of going to 100k - 130k. But you may know that Bitcoin is under extreme manipulation by BlackRock and other institutions. This is not a stock market, so they will not let Bitcoin go up, and instead they will trigger a massive crash back to 63k. Nobody likes Blackrock, but it's how it is. So what is the plan? First, I expect Bitcoin to go up and reach 78k. Then, when everyone buys, the price will crash to 63k. Do not forget that we also need to see a successful retest of the bullish flag. There is no retest yet. Bitcoin needs to confirm this uptrend, so do not FOMO in. I have been bullish since 60k or so, and I predicted the majority of Bitcoin movements in past months. Why is 63k important? We have a 200 daily moving average and FVG (Fair Value GAP) around this level. Also, the RSI indicator is starting to be overbought; you want to buy low when everyone is bearish. Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Long
by Xanrox
160
Gold eyes @2763 as Major Banks seeks to Cut interest Rates we have been seeing gold gain positive traction for the fourth successive day from the past week or so and climbing beyond the $2,700 mark, hitting a fresh record high during the Asian session on Friday. Major central banks have been cutting interest rates and are expected to ease monetary policy further. This, along with persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding the US Presidential election, turn out to be key factors driving flows towards the precious metal. thus said here are my predictions for the next few days Trading Implications: Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the 2,714 resistance level, it could indicate a continuation of the bullish trend, and new highs could be tested. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break above 2,714 and reverses downward, a pullback to the 2,691 or 2,677 support zones is likely, where bulls might regroup for another attempt upward.my take profit for the few coming days will be @2763 so for now am with the bulls as banks seeks to cut interest rates
TVC:GOLDLong
by que
eurusd wants to fill the Gap or not yet? Claro, aquí tienes la traducción al inglés: I see that the price has reached a significant weekly resistance and has left a bullish gap that should be filled. This leads me to think that there might be a manipulation of the Asian session highs before the price finds the momentum needed to move down and fill the gap. Overall, I find it more likely that these Asian highs won’t be manipulated. Additionally, I believe the EUR/USD could be looking for one last low before truly shifting its structure. However, the most notable confluence at the moment is the gap that still needs to be filled.
Short
by ag1904997
Long usdchf**Bullish USD/CHF Description** The USD/CHF currency pair is poised for significant upward momentum as the fundamentals align favorably for the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc. Several key factors contribute to this bullish outlook: 1. **Strong U.S. Economic Data**: Recent economic indicators from the United States, including robust employment figures, healthy consumer spending, and rising manufacturing output, suggest a resilient economy. This strength is likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain or potentially raise interest rates, making the dollar more attractive to investors. 2. **Safe-Haven Dynamics**: While the Swiss franc is traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, global market volatility and geopolitical tensions have led to increased demand for the U.S. dollar as a preferred reserve currency. As investors seek stability in uncertain times, the demand for USD is expected to rise. 3. **Divergent Monetary Policies**: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance contrasts sharply with the Swiss National Bank's accommodative policies
Long
by slimshah2003
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in December rose last week, up by USD 0.54/ton on Friday, though prices gave up some gains by the end of the week. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.60/ton on 28/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 102.14/ton on 01/Nov (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 104.60/ton on 29/Oct (Tue) and a low of USD 101.30/ton on 28/Oct (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 3.30/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded just above the pivot point of USD 103.70/ton for most of the week before falling below it on Friday. Volumes were noticeably lower in the later part of the week. Highest volume was observed on 30/Oct (Wed). SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary China’s parliament has started its five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan (USD 1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. The outcome is likely to drive significant volatility during the week. China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2 from 50.0. Steel industry PMI rose to 54.6 from 49 in prior month. The PMI reading was the highest since July 2018. The output index rose to 63.6 suggesting the stimulus helped boost steel production. Caxin’s China manufacturing PMI rose from 49.3 to 50.3 in October recovering from the dip in September. IO China Portside inventories rose by 770k tons to 150.1 million tons last week. The pickup volume declined further by 13k tons. Accumulating inventories pose a risk to IO demand. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Dec contract trades 3.6% higher than its last 5-year average (USD 99.31/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bearish Trend Prices recovered following the bearish MA crossover on 22/Oct but failed to rise above the 21-day moving average. The 21-day moving average served as a resistance level throughout last week. Long-Term Averages Provide Support Prices shot above the 100-day moving average on 28/Oct (Mon) and managed to hold above this level for the rest of the week. Price re-tested this support level on 4/Nov (Mon) but seems to be holding above it for now. MACD Points to Fading Decline The MACD suggests a weakening bearish trend, with the short-term MA positioned just below the long-term MA. However, both MAs are trending downward, making a bullish crossover unlikely without a sharp rally. The long-term MA may serve as support. The RSI is near a neutral level at 51.02. Fibonacci 38.2% Tested Last Week Following the retracement of the bearish trend since the start of October, prices rallied to the 38.2% Fib level but failed to surpass it. This could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. Though, the USD 100/ton level may provide psychological support. Price Trading Just Below Volume Point of Control Sellers continued to dominate trading despite an uptick in buyers early last week. Price faced resistance at the volume point of control for October (USD 103.55/ton). There is another area of volume concentration at (USD 101.15/ton) which could provide near-term support. Bollinger Bands Narrowing with Low Volatility Bollinger Bands for IO futures are narrowing and their width is near the lowest contraction since August, increasing the likelihood of a sharp breakout. Price is currently at the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Historical Volatility also continued to decline last week and reached its lowest level since August. Iron Ore Options Favor Calls SGX IO options expiring in December have an OI put/call ratio of 0.86 as of 1/Nov which favors calls. Over the past week, trading in this contract was heavily skewed towards call with a volume put/call ratio of 0.38. Additionally, last week, near-term options expiring in November saw a large buildup of call options around the USD 105 strike suggesting bullish sentiment in the near-term. The delta-25 options skew for December options also shows a sharp increase in call IV alongside a narrowing skew suggesting high demand for calls. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore volatility has reached its lowest level since August. The rally last week failed to continue past the short-term moving average and the volume profile point of control and IO gave up substantial gains in the later part of the week despite the encouraging data from PMI releases. The results of the ongoing parliamentary meeting are expected on 9/Nov (Fri) and are likely to drive substantial moves in prices. Options activity over the last week showed a high concentration of activity for call options, especially at the strike level of USD 105/ton. The IV for IO options has also been rising unlike the historical volatility. A sharp upside move is likely, though, if the fiscal stimulus disappoints, prices may also decline sharply. Expressing the bullish view through a long futures exposes the position to higher risk if stimulus disappoints. Investors can instead express the bullish view using SGX IO options. A bullish call spread benefits from an increase in prices and offers a fixed upside and fixed downside along with a smaller premium cost than a long call position. Bullish call spread consists of long call at a lower strike and short call at a higher strike. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of USD 105/ton for the long call leg and USD 109/ton for the short call leg on the options contract expiring on 31/Dec offers a reward to risk ratio of 3x. The USD 109/ton level coincides with the peak during the last rally in mid-October and is close to the 200-day moving average, prices could face resistance above this level. This position offers a max profit of USD 299/lot and a max loss of USD 101/lot and breaks even when prices rise above USD 106.1/ton. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Long
by MintBulkCommods
FTSE UK100 Reaches Key Demand Area Amid Seasonal TrendsThe FTSE UK100 index has recently reached a crucial demand area, igniting traders' interest amid seasonality patterns observed over the past decade. Historically, this time of year tends to witness upward momentum in the index prices, making this a significant area for potential bullish moves. Given the historical context, many traders are closely monitoring developments as they assess whether the index will follow suit and initiate a rally. From a fundamental perspective, the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides a tantalizing glimpse into market dynamics. It reveals that while retail traders are predominantly bearish, "smart money"—the institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions. This divergence is notable; retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator. With smart money stepping in at a demand zone, there is potential for a bullish reversal, which could support the index as it seeks to capitalize on favorable seasonal trends. Moreover, the broader economic landscape remains conducive to this optimistic outlook. As the UK grapples with various macroeconomic factors, including inflation rates and monetary policy responses, investor sentiment has become increasingly nuanced. A stronger performance in the FTSE may be supported by sectors that typically thrive during this time, such as commodities and financial services, providing tailwinds for the index. As traders look ahead, the focus on a bullish scenario is intensifying. The critical consideration is whether the FTSE UK100 can sustain momentum above the demand area, signaling a recovery phase that may align with both historical patterns and smart money positioning. If the index can maintain its footing and demonstrate strength in the coming sessions, it may very well affirm the bullish sentiment among those advocating for a market upturn. In summary, the convergence of seasonal patterns, contrasting market sentiment as illustrated by the COT report, and the strong fundamental backdrop paints a compelling picture for the FTSE UK100. Traders are poised to explore opportunities in a potentially bullish scenario, keen to see if the index will follow historical tendencies and deliver a strong performance in the latter part of the year. As always, careful monitoring of market developments will be essential in navigating this promising but complex landscape. ✅ Please share your thoughts about FTSE in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CAPITALCOM:UK100Long
by FOREXN1
3
The Mexican Peso Reborn: A Respite in the Storm Friday was an exciting day for the Mexican peso! The local currency recovered ground after a month full of ups and downs, closing the day at $20.109 MXN per dollar. This advance was driven by a weakened dollar, which lost strength against the world's major currencies. Compared to the previous close of $20.695, the peso gained 15.86 cents, which translates into a 0.79% improvement. Throughout the day, the exchange rate oscillated between $20.890 and a surprising low of $19.9851. These movements reflect the volatility of the market, but the dollar was not the only one to feel the pressure; the Dollar Index was also affected, falling 0.09% to 103.90 points. This dynamic allowed the Mexican peso to breathe a little easier in the midst of the economic storm. However, not everything is rosy. Despite the recovery, the peso closed October with a significant accumulated drop. Economic and political uncertainty in Mexico continues to worry investors, while inflation and interest rate decisions are still up in the air. Still, the peso's resurgence in this context reminds us that there are always opportunities even in the most turbulent times. In conclusion, Friday left us with a sense of hope. Although the peso is still navigating turbulent waters, its ability to react to a weak dollar suggests that investors are still looking for opportunities. The road to stability will not be easy, but the Mexican peso has shown that it can fight. Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
Handmade ProfitsEtsy is gaining bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $50.00 level. A break above the $58.00 resistance would signal further strength, positioning the stock to reach the $67.50 weekly resistance. With an attractive risk-to-reward setup, this trade offers a favorable opportunity, while a $45.00 stop-loss effectively manages downside risk. In the longer term, ETSY has the potential to reach $89.59, driven by strong fundamentals. As a leader in the online marketplace for unique and handmade goods, Etsy is well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of e-commerce. With a loyal customer base and innovative platform features, Etsy is poised to capture an expanding market share, supporting both near-term momentum and longer-term growth. This combination of technical momentum and strong market fundamentals supports a bullish push toward $67.50, with $89.59 as an achievable longer-term target. NASDAQ:ETSY
NASDAQ:ETSY
by The_Trading_Mechanic
IBIT:Why are elites buying Bitcoin?Why are elites buying Bitcoin? Bitcoin has evolved from a cryptocurrency experiment to an asset of global interest, attracting the attention of large financial institutions and elites. This shift in perception, backed by reports such as BlackRock's, highlights how Bitcoin has evolved to become a solid option for protecting capital and diversifying portfolios. But what really motivates elites to invest in Bitcoin? Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation Inflation, driven by expansionary monetary policies and increasing money issuance, has become a major concern for high-end investors. Bitcoin, having a limited supply of 21 million units, acts as a store of value that cannot be devalued by an increase in supply, as is the case with fiat currencies. This feature makes Bitcoin an attractive option for those seeking to protect their wealth over the long term in an environment of rising inflation (BlackRock, 2023). Decentralization and Resilience: A Refuge in Times of Uncertainty Unlike traditional currencies and other assets that depend on government policies and economic stability, Bitcoin operates independently of central bank and government decisions. This gives it a unique resilience in times of instability. As BlackRock highlights, Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it an ideal tool for those seeking financial autonomy and protection from state intervention. In a context of global uncertainty, this feature is especially attractive to investors seeking safe assets that are uncorrelated to the traditional financial system (BlackRock, 2023). The Role of Institutional Adoption The growing adoption of Bitcoin by financial institutions and investment funds has been instrumental in legitimizing the digital asset. In its report, BlackRock mentions how the entry of institutional investors into the Bitcoin market not only increases its credibility, but also reduces long-term volatility. This trend is relevant because it encourages other high-profile players to explore Bitcoin, seeing it as a less risky and increasingly stable asset. The involvement of institutions such as BlackRock and other investment funds also provides an endorsement that incentivizes elites to consider Bitcoin in their portfolios. Portfolio Diversification and Long-Term Growth Potential Bitcoin is an asset that is uncorrelated to traditional stock or bond markets, making it a strategic diversification option. According to BlackRock, in a volatile economic environment, this diversification capability is key to mitigating risks. Moreover, as an asset still in a growth phase, Bitcoin has significant appreciation potential. Its global adoption is still limited, which for many investors represents an opportunity to position themselves before its value stabilizes with wider adoption. Conclusion: Bitcoin as Risk and Growth Management For financial elites, Bitcoin offers a combination of protection, growth and diversification. Interest in this asset lies not only in its ability to offer attractive returns, but also in its role as a risk management tool in an increasingly uncertain economic environment. As BlackRock highlights, investing in Bitcoin represents a strategic step both to protect capital against inflation and to participate in an emerging financial trend that promises to transform markets globally. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst References: • BlackRock (2023). Bitcoin institutional adoption report. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by ActivTrades
ASML: A Key Moment to Take Advantage of Bearish SentimentCurrent Context ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is at a critical juncture. Recently, its share price has fallen nearly 24%, driven by a downward revision to its 2025 sales projections largely because +20% of its sales were being generated by China and now the country has seen competitors replace its best-selling technologies. Sales are now expected to range between 30 and 35 billion euros, compared to the previous forecast of 30 to 40 billion. This revision is due to a slower recovery in its traditional markets, especially in logic chip production and limited production capacity in the memory sector. Operational Analysis Despite this pessimistic review, ASML's growth prospects remain robust. The company maintains a dominant position thanks to its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, crucial at a time when demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment is on the rise, driven by artificial intelligence, 5G and digital transformation. Although relations with China have weakened thanks to European interventionist policies, ASML anticipates that growth in segments outside China will offset this decline. The growing need for advanced semiconductors is expected to continue to support its growth in the medium term. Valuation Analysis From a valuation standpoint, ASML presents itself as an attractive opportunity. It currently has an EV/sales ratio of 9.5, which is 18.9% below its five-year average. It is estimated that the company's value could increase 30% in the next 12 months, reaching approximately $360 billion, based on revenue projections of $36 billion by 2025. Furthermore, with a non-GAAP P/E of 34.5, which is also below its historical average, ASML appears undervalued compared to other industry players. Technical Analysis From a technical point of view the stock has been losing value since July 11. The last strong downward movement occurred on October 15, subsequently the downward pressure has kept the stock during the whole month and the beginning of November down. A bearish delta channel is visible and clearly marked by the POC price around €627 per share. This price retracement has caused the stock to reach December 2023 prices, prior to the Christmas rally. At the moment RSI is oversold at 32.49% so it is not strange if the firm's share price recovers value towards €753 which is the last delta pressure zone indicated in the next trading area. Risks to Consider However, not everything is positive. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China could significantly impact ASML's valuation. China accounts for more than 20% of the country's sales and it is a very high risk for the company to lose this major market because it is the market that can be a competitor with global suppliers and government support. The emergence of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), which receives subsidies from the Chinese government, represents a long-term challenge. While these concerns may seem distant, it is essential not to underestimate their potential effect on the market. Conclusion Despite the risks, the combination of ASML's current valuation and its monopoly in EUV technology suggests that it is an appropriate time for investors to consider a position in this stock. With a solid growth outlook and favorable investment conditions, ASML is positioned as a strategic buy in a well-managed portfolio. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by ActivTrades