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Fundamental Analysis

Pound slips as UK payrolls slideThe British pound continues to show sharp swings this week. After a spectacular 1.3% gain on Monday, GBP/USD has reversed directions and is trading at 1.2233 in the European session, down 0.68% on the day. The UK payrolls report, a reliable indicator of employment growth, showed a sharp decline of 47 thousand m/m in December 2024. This was the largest decline since Nov. 2020 and follows a revised -32 thousand in November. The back-to-back declines are a result of the government's new payroll taxes in the budget, which is causing businesses to release workers. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) remains hot and increased to 5.6% in December, in line with the market estimate and higher than the 5.2% gain in November. While the weak employment data will be a headache for the UK government, it supports the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in order to kick-start the flagging economy. The BoE held rates in December and meets next on Feb. 6, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 85%. Inflation has remained sticky and the jump in wage growth is a reminder of the upside risk of inflation. The BoE may be looking at rate cuts in the coming months but it will have to do so cautiously, ever mindful of inflation. In the US, the strong nonfarm payrolls report for December is raising the possibility that the easing cycle may be over. The Bank of America doesn't expect any rate cuts in 2025 and says the risks for the next move are tilted towards a hike. The Fed started the easing cycle with a bang in September 2024, chopping rates by a half-point, but the strong economy means Fed policy makers may have to consider rate hikes in 2025. GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2278. and is putting pressure on support at 1.2211 1.2395 and 1.2462 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Oil correction continuesDuring his inauguration address early yesterday evening, President Donald Trump declared that he was calling a national energy emergency, aimed at raising fossil fuel production. This did little to support the price of crude. Although in fairness, it appears that the market had anticipated something along those lines, as the sharpest part of yesterday’s sell-off came over three hours earlier. Crude managed a brief bounce overnight, as the new president signed a stack of executive orders. But the selling has continued this morning, taking front-month WTI back down to levels last seen eleven days ago. Mr Trump’s full-throated yell for US producers to: ‘Drill, baby, drill!’ is not new. And it’s perfectly logical that prices should fall at the prospect of increased supply. But producers are highly price-sensitive, and there comes a time/price where it’s uneconomical to raise production. In the meantime, crude is undergoing an overdue downward correction following a sustained rally since early December. Traders will have to see how far and how protracted this correction turns out to be. There’s some early support just south of $75. This marks the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 6-week rally. The 50% retracement comes in around $73.40. Whatever happens from here, the daily MACD needs to reset at less-overbought levels. So, the sell-off may continue for a while yet.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation
US Investors Focus on Earnings and S&P 500 OutlookUS Equity Investors Focus on Corporate Earnings and Policy Announcements US equity investors are set to focus on major corporate earnings this week while also keeping an eye on potential trade policy announcements from the Trump administration and developments in macroeconomic data. S&P 500 Analysis The S&P 500 price continues to exhibit bullish momentum, supported by strong buying pressure and robust fourth-quarter earnings results. There is potential for a corrective move toward 6000, which could act as a springboard for a further rally. If the price pushes higher, it may target 6051, and a sustained move above this level could see it test 6099. A 4-hour candle close above 6099 would strengthen the bullish case. To turn bearish, the price must break below 6000 and achieve a 4-hour candle close below 5969. Key Levels Pivot Point: 6020 Resistance Levels: 6051, 6099, 6143 Support Levels: 6000, 5969, 5937 Trend Outlook The trend remains bullish while the price stays above 6020 and 6000. A break below these levels could indicate a bearish shift. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Zloty Long Trade SetupCurrent Position: FPMARKETS:EURPLN recently approached the lower bound of its trading range for the past year, presenting an attractive entry point for a long trade. Supporting Factors: NBP Hawkishness: The National Bank of Poland's hawkish guidance at its December meeting has supported the zloty, but risks of an earlier-than-expected rate cut may weaken it. External Risks: Potential trade frictions under the incoming US administration could hurt the European outlook and indirectly weigh on Poland's economy. Technical Setup: The technical backdrop supports a higher FPMARKETS:EURPLN , suggesting bullish potential. Risks: A swift resolution to the Ukraine war, as indicated by President-elect Trump’s intentions, could strengthen the zloty and pose downside risks to the trade.
Long
by Market_Virtuoso
DXY RECOVERS AFTER TRUMP’S INAUGURATIONAs markets adjust to the new U.S. administration, “a dawn of a new era," DXY recovers after Trump’s inauguration. After experiencing a decline of over 1%, the index found support around 107.56 and is now trading at 108.40 as of 3:43 PM GMT+4 (Dubai time), marking a 0.61% increase. From a fundamental standpoint, President Trump's second administration is anticipated to have a significant impact on the U.S. economy, with a strong emphasis on key economic policies. This includes but not limited to his announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, effective February 1, 2025, alongside maintaining existing tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, his declaration of a "National Energy Emergency" highlights a push to expand oil drilling and deregulate the energy industry. This initiative aims to achieve energy independence and reduce costs but raises concerns about environmental impact and potential legal challenges. In terms of immigration, stricter enforcement and increased deportations are expected to affect labor markets, particularly in industries heavily dependent on immigrant workers. This could result in labor shortages and higher production costs. While these policies aim to stimulate economic growth, they come with potential risks, such as inflationary pressures, trade conflicts, and labor market disruptions. The overall impact will depend on how effectively these policies are implemented and their reception both domestically and internationally. UPCOMING CATALYST On Thursday, January 23rd, the U.S. unemployment claims are scheduled for release at 5:30 AM GMT+4, followed by the crude oil inventory report at 8:00 PM. The next day, Friday, will feature the release of Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 6:45 PM, and to close the week, existing home sales and consumer sentiment reports will be released simultaneously at 7:00 PM. These data points have the potential to significantly influence market movements, underscoring the importance of cautious analysis and strategic decision-making. TECHNICAL VIEW: From a technical perspective, the DXY is recovering from the previous day's losses, which had strengthened major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD. Currently, the index is trading around 108.40, with 108.80 acting as a key resistance level. Given the upcoming data releases, a favorable outcome could propel the DXY above 108.80, with potential targets at 109.09, 109.44, and 109.81 in the coming weeks. However, a correction is still a possibility. Conversely, a negative reading could further weaken the dollar, with potential downside targets at 107.48, the psychological level of 107.00, and 106.56. Analysts suggest that breakouts in either direction are possible, depending on the data's impact.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CFI
EUR/JPY - Preparation for the Interest Rate Hike on Friday - BOJHi guys , we would be looking in a shorter term trade on the GBP/JPY looking to chase at least 100 pips in a down turn , we have a positive expectation that the Bank of Japan would hike the interest rate on Friday from 0.25 to 0.50. I do agree that 25 basis points isnt a lot , but in a status that it took BOJ two years of sitting on negative interest rate to finally start balancing their sheets and looking to increase it, would give a positive approach into a better stability for the Japanese economy and more specifically the Japanese Yen! Entry: 161.300 Target: 160.300 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Short
by DG55Capital
GBP/JPY - Preparation for the Interest Rate Hike on Friday - BOJHi guys , we would be looking in a shorter term trade on the GBP/JPY looking to chase at least 100 pips in a down turn , we have a positive expectation that the Bank of Japan would hike the interest rate on Friday from 0.25 to 0.50. I do agree that 25 basis points isnt a lot , but in a status that it took BOJ two years of sitting on negative interest rate to finally start balancing their sheets and looking to increase it, would give a positive approach into a better stability for the Japanese economy and more specifically the Japanese Yen! Entry: 191.00 Target: 189.800 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Short
by DG55Capital
Analysis Idea: GBPCAD Long SetupThe GBPCAD pair is presenting a promising buy opportunity, supported by a weak Canadian Dollar and favorable technicals: 📊 CAD Bearish Drivers: Weak Economic Data: Recent figures highlight a slowdown in Canada’s economic momentum. Dovish BoC Policy: The Bank of Canada maintains a dovish stance, limiting CAD upside. Global Risks: Broader market uncertainties weigh on CAD as a commodity-linked currency. 🎯 Trade Setup: Uptrend: The market remains in an uptrend, providing bullish momentum. Key Support: Strong demand zone around 1.75917 offers an ideal area for entry. Targets: Watch for a move toward higher levels, with potential continuation in the uptrend. ⚠️ Risk Tip: Use a tight stop below the demand zone to protect capital while capitalizing on the bullish setup. #Forex #GBPCAD #TradeIdeas
Long
by Wainainarobert
1
The global economy faces many uncertainties.Gold prices rebounded overnight as Donald Trump is likely to delay imposing tariffs. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump issued a presidential memorandum directing federal agencies to investigate trade deficits and address unfair trade and currency policies from other countries. However, the directive does not include imposing new tariffs on the first day of his inauguration, which many countries have feared. Fears of tariffs and a global trade war have significantly affected the precious metals market. Last week, gold prices rose above $2,700 an ounce, while silver prices returned above $30 an ounce, reflecting the urgency of the market. Some analysts have attributed the rise in gold and silver prices to disruptions in the global supply chain as the precious metals are moved from London to New York. Donald Trump’s tariff threats have created huge volatility in the futures and physical asset swaps market, as banks have moved large amounts of metals to the US to avoid the risk of potential tariffs. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2726 2628🔥 ✔️TP1: 2710 ✔️TP2: 2700 ✔️TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2736
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
XAUUSD TOD POSSIBLE MOVEMENT MUST READ CAPTIONGold prices have surged to a 10-week high, reaching $2,727.19 per ounce, as the U.S. dollar weakened following President Donald Trump's inauguration and indications of a gradual approach to implementing tariffs. Technical analysis suggests that while the overall trend remains bullish, a short-term bearish correction could occur, potentially testing the support level near $2,695 per ounce. However, the broader outlook remains positive, with analysts anticipating that gold prices may reach $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions and central bank buying.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeAdvisory
Gold Trends and Signals UpdateOn the daily chart, the daily chart broke the 4-day winning streak and fell slightly on Friday. The decline at the end of the trading day caused a continuous decline. The price effectively crossed the short-term moving average and led the short-term moving average to turn downward at 2710 and 2707. Other periodic indicators also formed a short position arrangement. The Bollinger Bands as a whole shrank sharply. In addition, the MACD indicator once again crossed downward. Therefore, the 4-hour level should still be prepared for an intensified decline! Trump took office today, and the market may become complicated. Beware of abnormal market fluctuations. From a technical perspective, Huang Jin ended the strong bullish pattern last week. After a weak closing, a break of 2700 was formed, and there was a further wide adjustment in prices. Trading ideas: short-term layout of selling high and buying low. Gold fell directly after the opening of the Asian session. Gold bulls had no power to fight back. For key points, even if gold wants to go out of the downward wave, it is good for our short-term layout! In addition, today is the date when Trump takes office. The gold market will inevitably suffer from the rise of risk aversion caused by irresistible factors! That is, the market is still relatively bullish in many aspects! The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn downward, and the gold bull market has temporarily come to an end. If the moving average forms a dead cross downward, the downward space of gold will increase, and the 1-hour gold is now also suppressed by the downward trend; the downward resistance moves down to around 2708, and the Asian session rebounds around 2708 and continues to sell at highs. The rebound near 2705 can be empty first. First support: 2681, second support: 2670, third support: 2662 First resistance: 2695, second resistance: 2708, third resistance: 2725 Operation ideas: BUY: 2680-2683, SELL: 2705-2708,
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jun-GoldAnalyst
3
Ethereum will be bullish from this area, read caption.Hello everyone, hope you are doing well I have prepared this chart setup for Ethereum what are your thoughts share in comment section. More you can read here below everything.. 1. Resistance Zone (Highlighted in Red): This area, around $3,650 , indicates a price level where Ethereum faces selling pressure. Historically, the price has reversed or struggled to break through this zone. 2. Support Zone (Highlighted in Green): The support zone near $3,150-$3,250 acts as a strong buying area, where the price has historically bounced back upwards. 3. Entry Point: Marked slightly above the support zone (around $3,232) , suggesting a potential long trade setup. 4. Stop-Loss (SL) Area: Placed below the support zone (around $3,052 ), minimizing losses in case the price breaks below the support. 5. Target Zone: Positioned at around $3,420-$3,450 , aiming for a profit once the price moves higher from the entry point. 6. Yellow Arrows: These indicate the anticipated upward movement of Ethereum's price, assuming the support zone holds. Geopolitical Influences on Ethereum's Price: 1. Regulatory Developments: Cryptocurrency regulations in major markets like the U.S., EU, and China can influence Ethereum's price. For example, stricter rules on decentralized finance (DeFi) or staking might introduce volatility. 2. Global Economic Conditions: Inflation rates, interest rate policies, and economic instability drive investors toward or away from crypto assets like Ethereum. A favorable macroeconomic environment typically boosts crypto prices. 3. Adoption Trends: Government-backed projects or institutional adoption (e.g., CBDCs or blockchain infrastructure) can positively impact Ethereum’s demand and price. 4. Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts or uncertainties (e.g., wars, sanctions, or trade disputes) can push investors toward decentralized assets as a hedge against traditional markets. 5. Energy Market Influence: Ethereum's move to Proof of Stake (PoS) has reduced energy dependency, but rising global energy prices may still indirectly impact crypto sentiment and mining-related networks. These factors collectively influence market sentiment, trading activity, and ultimately Ethereum's price dynamics. Key Levels; Entry point: 3232 TP 1: 3344 Target: 3452 SL at: 3055 Kindly support me, like comment and share.
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by Jacks_Trading_Service
Key Week: Trump takes office and Davos kicks offThis week, two events dominate global attention: the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States and the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Both promise to set the political and economic agenda for the coming months, with significant implications for financial markets and international relations. Both scenarios promise to generate volatility due to the implications they have, whether for the first executive orders of the new U.S. administration or for statements by world leaders in Switzerland. Trump and His First Mandates: A Full-Speed Start The presidential takeover in the United States was formalized yesterday with the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House. In a start marked by immediate action, the president signed more than 200 executive orders, underscoring his intention to swiftly execute his policy agenda. These initial measures cover areas such as the economy, trade, energy and immigration, and are designed to fulfill the promises that marked his presidential campaign. Notable measures include halting regulations in the energy sector designed to encourage domestic oil and gas production, and initiating the renegotiation of key trade agreements aimed at strengthening the competitiveness of the U.S. economy. These actions underscore the “America First” approach, seeking to reposition the United States as a global leader under new trade conditions. However, these decisions have generated mixed reactions both at home and abroad. While his supporters interpret them as a firm fulfillment of his campaign promises and strong leadership, while the more critical ones warn about the possible repercussions on the global economic balance and international diplomatic relations. Davos Forum: A Platform for Global Dialogue Simultaneously, in Switzerland, the World Economic Forum kicked off in Davos, an annual event that brings together political, business and social leaders from around the world, held this year under the theme “Collaboration in a Fragmented World.” This year, the forum is marked by a global context of uncertainty. Political, business and social leaders are gathering to discuss crucial issues such as sustainability, energy transition and digital transformation. Trump's initial prominence has generated uncertainty in the discussions overshadowing part of the agenda. Leaders from Europe, Asia and Latin America are adjusting their strategies to face possible changes in trade and global diplomacy in the face of the possible implications of U.S. policies. Of particular note are the expected interventions of Chinese President Xi Jinping and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who are seeking to position their regions in the face of the new U.S. approach. The forum reflects an urgent need for international cooperation at a time when political and economic tensions challenge the global order. However, concrete responses will depend on the ability of leaders to coordinate actions in the face of common challenges. Market Impact: Volatility and Mixed Expectations Markets have reacted with mixed movements to the confluence of Trump's mandate and the start of the Davos Forum. In the United States, sectors such as banking and energy have shown significant gains, driven by expectations of deregulation and economic stimulus from the new administration. On the other hand, US Treasury bonds recorded slight declines, reflecting greater risk aversion among investors in the face of political uncertainty. In Europe, stock markets have shown a stronger performance, with value markets leading the rally in more traditional equities, outperforming their US peers, while in Asia, indices have maintained a cautious tone. Commodities have also been strong performers, especially oil, which is up 1.7% on expectations of increased global demand. Agricultural products, such as corn, have also strengthened, anticipating possible imbalances in the global economic cycle. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is at a critical point within a bearish channel. A breakout to the upside could mark a shift to a more optimistic trend, although sentiment indicators remain ambiguous: while retail investors show extreme enthusiasm, other general confidence indices point to a more conservative approach. Europe as a Strategic Haven Although the outlook remains fraught with uncertainty, Europe presents itself as an attractive option in the near term, especially with the optimism surrounding its value markets. As global leaders set the economic tone in Davos and U.S. policies take shape, investors should keep an eye on key indicators and technical movements in the major indices. As leaders in Davos set the tone for 2025 and the Trump administration moves forward with its policies, investors should keep an eye on key indicators and technical signals in the major indices. It will undoubtedly be a week loaded with information and events that will test the markets' ability to adapt to an ever-changing environment. Conclusion The week is marked by two events of major global significance: the start of Donald Trump's term in office and the Davos Economic Forum. Both have set in motion dynamics that could define the course of politics and the global economy in 2025. As markets navigate between volatility and expectation they face a week loaded with crucial information and events, the focus will be on how these developments will impact international relations and the outlook for economic growth globally. The challenge will be to adapt to a constantly changing environment, balancing risks and opportunities in an increasingly complex global scenario. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500
by ActivTrades
Nasdaq 100: Bearish Signals Amid Increased VolatilityNasdaq 100: Bearish Signals Amid Increased Volatility As revealed by the technical analysis of the 4-hour Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), the ATR indicator has been above 125 since the start of 2025, in contrast to late 2024 when it was mostly below this level. This reflects heightened volatility in the US stock market due to: → Trump’s inauguration: The president has already signed an executive order withdrawing the US from the World Health Organization. Market participants anticipate further decisions in the near future that could significantly impact the nation’s economy. → Earnings season: Companies are releasing reports, prompting analysts to revise forecasts. For instance, a Jefferies analyst downgraded Apple’s (AAPL) stock rating and lowered the price target from $211 to $200, citing potentially weak revenue figures. Apple’s quarterly report is due on 30 January. On the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), a bearish move (indicated by the arrow) is notable for: → Indicating that the median line of the ascending channel has turned into resistance; → Suggesting that the apparent bullish breakout above the upper red line now seems to be a false breakout. The long lower wick on the far-right bearish candle points to strong demand around the 21,300 level. However, will buyers remain active if Trump’s actions and corporate earnings reports increase risks for them? This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
3