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Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF Wedge Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3-7)The USD/CHF pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 0.9138 2nd Resistance – 0.9221 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
Bitcoin's Next Move: More Downside or a ReboundBitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a significant decline, dropping below $90,000—a 20% decrease from its all-time high of $109,000 last month. This downturn is primarily attributed to concerns over U.S. economic instability, particularly inflation and trade policies. INVESTOPEDIA.COM President Trump's confirmation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada has exacerbated these worries, potentially sparking inflation. Investors are closely monitoring inflation data, as higher inflation could prevent the Federal Reserve from reducing interest rates, affecting investments in higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. INVESTOPEDIA.COM Additionally, a recent $1.5 billion Ether theft from the Bybit exchange has heightened fears about the security of digital asset platforms. This incident has contributed to the overall market instability, leading to substantial declines in major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. NYPOST.COM Despite these setbacks, some experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential. Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 before President Trump leaves office, indicating a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency. REUTERS.COM In summary, while Bitcoin has faced recent declines due to economic concerns and security issues, some analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook, suggesting potential for significant growth in the future.
Short
by jshafx
BTC - Bigger Picture of Liquidity Collection RoadmapExpanding on my last idea focusing on the first move in this sequence, here is a bigger picture of this idea and I will explain in detail how I arrive to this. 1. The market is always going to absorb liquidity. We know this. We also know that since Dec 2022 Bitcoin has been on a steady climb up allowing for lots of long positions to open and stay open. What this creates is a lot of absorbable liquidity in the form of long position stop losses. Further more, the dominance of leverage is very high in crypto, therefor these stop loss orders are “leveraged sell orders”. This is the “fuel” that can be used to explain the possibility of a move of this magnitude. In other words, the orders are already in place in the chart; the adverse of traders decisions via leveraged position stop losses. 2. We can identify (2) main trendlines that explains why Bitcoin has been struggling so much around these zones. Price tends to break above and below these diagonal trendlines, trading sideways in a diagonal fashion - until there is enough “fear” or justification to allow the trendline to play itself out. The first trendline I design for you in my previous idea. This takes Bitcoin to a zone with several confluences. (1) A Volume Profile support, (2) The bottom of a bearish trendline, and (3) The absorption of a mass amount of liquidity located from the current price to that zone. The second trendline, which you can apply the same validation methods I pointed out in my previous idea (duplicating the trendline and placing it infinitely at different areas on the chart and observing price respecting the angle), has a bottom of $7,000. Now this Uber low may seem extraordinarily unrealistic, but there is again, a mass amount of liquidity located in those low zones that the market wants to absorb. 3. I lay out here a corrective wave sequence that would allow all of this liquidity to be absorbed. The US Dollar on the higher timeframes shows a bearish retest of a major breakdown. With all of the negative news and geopolitical tension with the US, both technically and fundamentally this points in the direction of a falling US dollar relative to other global currencies. 4. Ultimately this is good for Bitcoin. I present this idea for several reasons, most importantly, what I can see happening (assuming this does occur) is that many holders and investors will sell at very low prices in extreme fear that Bitcoin will go to zero, when in fact it would just be a liquidity grab prior to a true 3-5 year bull run on Bitcoin as the US Dollar loses strength. Of course being ill prepared and selling at those extreme lows would be catastrophic for investors and traders. So if anything, I hope this serves you with the possibility explained in detail, and in the event you see this occur, to not panic and not sell. To do the exact opposite of what the majority would do and BUY into those extreme fear zones. Happy trading and stay safe. For anyone wanting to argue that it’s not possible or showing their confidence that it would never happen; please understand there is no harm is looking at potential scenarios and this isn’t an ego contest about who is right or wrong. It’s ideally about looking out for each other and sharing our work, knowledge, and experience to collectively succeed in understanding this challenging market. People may also like to point out that I’ve been speaking about this occurring for roughly a year, and have been wrong - however the timing of such events doesn’t mean it’s “wrong”. If the chart demonstrates a possibility, it remains.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DickDandy
BTC - Watch this Trendline - Potential Short to 36,000I’ve drawn the main trendline and marked the contact points in red circles if you’d like to replicate this on your own chart I’ve also demonstrated that when the correct trendline is identified, it can be duplicated and placed at different points on the chart that price seems to follow - IE support / resistance works on a diagonal grid I’ve marked my personal entry in green, stop loss in red - minor targets in grey dashed lines and major targets in black solid lines Fundamentally this drop makes sense as there is a mass amount of liquidity in these below zones. Not financial advice, do your own research and experimentations. God speed!
Short
by DickDandy
Short AUDUSD The Perfect Storm: Stagflation, GeopoliticsIn a world increasingly defined by geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, a perfect storm is brewing, casting a long shadow over the Australian dollar. The confluence of persistent stagflationary pressures, escalating trade tensions, and a resurgent U.S. dollar is creating a formidable headwind for the AUDUSD pair. This article delves into the intricate web of factors driving this bearish sentiment, offering a comprehensive analysis for macro traders and financial viewers seeking clarity amidst market turbulence. The Stagflationary Grip: A Global Economic Quagmire The global economic landscape is ensnared in a precarious dance between "sticky" inflation and a palpable slowdown. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remains stubbornly elevated, while Producer Price Index (PPI) figures signal continued upward pressure on consumer prices. This persistent inflation, coupled with a weakening housing market, declining consumer confidence, and a sharp contraction in global trade activity (as evidenced by the plummeting Shanghai and China Containerized Freight Indices), paints a stark picture of a "Stagflationary Weakness." www.census.gov The Federal Reserve finds itself trapped between a rock and a hard place, grappling with the unenviable task of taming inflation while averting a looming recession. Policy missteps are increasingly probable, further amplifying market anxieties. Geopolitical Fault Lines and Trade Wars: Fueling the Fire Adding to the economic woes are escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. The contentious US-Ukraine situation, heightened US-China strategic competition (including technology decoupling and potential military tensions in the South China Sea), and the ever-present threat of cyberattacks are creating an environment of heightened risk aversion. President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, have ignited fears of retaliatory measures and further disruptions to global trade flows. The market's reaction has been swift and decisive, with the S&P 500 experiencing consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing investor unease. The AUDUSD Under Siege: A Technical and Fundamental Breakdown Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD pair is experiencing a decisive bearish breakdown. The U.S. dollar (DXY), fueled by its safe-haven appeal and the prevailing risk-off sentiment, is exhibiting robust strength, targeting 109.900. This dollar resurgence is exerting significant downward pressure on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. Gaining Traction Amidst Global Uncertainty The AUDUSD has decisively breached the critical 0.64000 level, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment. While rising commodity prices, particularly in energy, have historically provided support for the AUD, the current environment is unique. Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are overshadowing the positive impact of rising commodity prices. Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), confirm the bearish momentum. The 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all trending downwards, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Key Support Zone and Outlook: We have identified a key support zone between 0.61435 and 0.60838. This zone represents a potential area of consolidation or a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, given the strong bearish momentum and the prevailing fundamental factors, we anticipate a continued downward trajectory. Impact of Strong Dollar and Risk Aversion" Traders should closely monitor the DXY and global risk sentiment for further confirmation of the bearish trend. Any sustained break of the 0.64000 level would confirm the current outlook. The AUDUSD pair is currently navigating a perfect storm of stagflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and a resurgent U.S. dollar. This confluence of factors has created a compelling bearish outlook, with technical indicators and fundamental analysis aligning to support continued downward momentum. In this environment, vigilance and a deep understanding of the global macroeconomic landscape are paramount. Traders must remain attuned to the evolving geopolitical and economic narratives, adapting their strategies to navigate the turbulent waters of the current market. FX:AUDUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by TyrusL
Patience I think medipharm is a decent company they have a lot going for them and they are on the verge of profitablity, and when call you have Pierre Poilievre in office in Canada all Canadian stocks that aren't terrible are going to be bullish for sure. My average buy in is 7 cents Canadian and if your a US citizen you can literally buy way more then canadains if you have an average salary pos. My price target is 60 cents Canadian but I know this company is going to a couple of dollars here.
TSX:LABSLong
by christiansmithtrades
NMR with potential for growthHello everyone, let's look at the NMR chart in hand at USDT, taking into account the 1W interval. As we can see, the prices are moving under the designated inheritance trend line, and what is more, you can see here when we entered a strong support zone from $ 11 to $ 7, which can potentially be a good shopping zone for Long position. In a situation where BTC stabilizes at the current price or the valuation increases again, we can see an interesting increase on NMR. It is worth considering several output levels like T1 = 12.36 $ T2 = 14.98 $ T3 = 19.59 $ T4 = 22.77 $ T5 = $ 26.74 Looking at the RSI indicator, you can see the traffic below the lower limit, which may also indicate a potentially upcoming growth movement.
Long
by cryptodailyuk
Bitcoin: Another Drop or the Biggest Market Trap?🚨 Is Bitcoin’s decline a natural correction, or are we witnessing a masterfully engineered shakeout? Bitcoin currently stands at a critical crossroad, leaving both retail traders and institutional investors in a state of uncertainty. To fully understand this moment, we must look beyond charts and price action—we must uncover the true forces at play. 🔍 The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin’s Volatility From its inception, Bitcoin was seen as a decentralized revolution, but as it gained momentum, it also became a tool for financial anonymity. Over the years, untraceable payments to cartels, mercenary groups, and illicit networks forced global regulators to move from passive observation to active intervention. Institutional money didn’t just fuel Bitcoin’s growth—it forced governments to rethink their stance. The Trump administration took a radical step, considering Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States. This wasn’t a random event—it was a carefully planned maneuver. 💣 The Trump Inauguration Pump-and-Dump: Market Manipulation at Its Finest On Trump’s inauguration day, Bitcoin saw a violent pump, led initially by Binance, followed by Bybit and Coinbase, triggering an all-time high breakout. However, this wasn’t a genuine breakout. Instead, it was a classic fakeout, designed to trigger mass FOMO, liquidate short positions, and set up liquidity for institutions. 🔹 Bybit initiated large-scale sell-offs 🔹 Binance and Coinbase followed suit 🔹 Bitcoin collapsed from its peak To believe this was random is pure naïveté. Liquidity providers don’t act in isolation—they operate within a much larger framework of financial and political power. 📊 CME Futures: The Financial Gaps That Had to Be Filled If you analyze the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Futures chart, you’ll notice multiple unfilled gaps, which indicate severe financial imbalances between spot and futures traders. 🔸 The 80,705 - 77,905 gap took 9 months to fill. 🔸 A new gap between 92,695 - 93,790 has now appeared. These gaps are not accidental—they are byproducts of an engineered system designed to manipulate liquidity and correct imbalances. 📉 Bitcoin’s Support Levels & Why It Shouldn’t Drop Further 🔻 $75,000 is a crucial support level. 🔻 A temporary dip to $70,000 is possible but unlikely to hold. 🔻 A drop beyond $70,000 could lead to catastrophic financial turmoil: ⚠️ Mass liquidations worldwide ⚠️ Corporate bankruptcies ⚠️ Stock market collapses ⚠️ Institutional liquidity crises This is why Bitcoin’s freefall must be controlled, and governments, exchanges, and major players will intervene before the damage spreads too far. 🚀 The Birth of a New Altcoin Season? 🔹 Traders are exhausted. 🔹 Bitcoin’s volatility has shaken confidence. 🔹 Capital is looking for alternative growth. We may be witnessing an unprecedented event: the first altcoin season where altcoins move independently of Bitcoin’s influence. 🚀 If Bitcoin remains trapped in uncertainty, altcoins could decouple and establish their own market cycles. But beware—this could be another orchestrated setup to drain liquidity before Bitcoin’s next move. ⚠️ The Perfect Short Squeeze Setup? Markets have been flooded with short positions, driven by: 🔹 Fear & Pessimism 🔹 Institutional Manipulation 🔹 Lack of Retail Confidence But what if this hopeless sentiment is the ideal setup for a market-shaking reversal? Imagine a scenario where: 🔺 Bitcoin traps overleveraged shorts 🔺 Suddenly reverses with explosive momentum 🔺 Traders who expected further decline get liquidated We’ve seen this happen before. The question is—who will be caught off guard this time? 📢 What Do You Think? Comment Below! 💬 Is Bitcoin heading for another major dump or a massive short squeeze? 💬 Will altcoins finally move independently of Bitcoin? 💬 Are we seeing a government-controlled Bitcoin strategy unfold? 🔥 If this analysis was insightful, don’t forget to like & follow for more deep market insights! With respect, Hamid #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoMarket #Altcoins #Blockchain #CryptoNews #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #MarketAnalysis #BTCChart #CryptoSignals #BitcoinManipulation #WhaleGames #CMEGap #InstitutionalInvestors #MarketLiquidity #ShortSqueeze #Altseason
CME:BTC1!
by SeyedHamid822
BUY $100-130 for LT holdAnalysis: - LT trend since 2012 shows ~$100 as key support level, even if support (prior resistance now support) from 2014 fails. - $100 is 67% off of the recent high of $306. Ouch! But this also means there's large upside to get back to those levels. Despite Trump admin opposition to renewables, FSLR is well positioned with US manufacturing capability, a FWB:20B backlog on current SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:4B in revenue. This means they could grow YoY throughout the Trump admin with just the current backlog. Also, they're profitable with 30% Net Income margins form the last year. Large commercial customers (namely, tech giants through renewables developers) are happy to continue investing billions in renewables (and to trade high capex for low opex). Investment Thesis: - Monitor this $130-135 level. If broken with conviction, we look towards $100 entry points. IMO, worst case is also $100-130 price by EOY 2026.
NASDAQ:FSLRLong
by HandsomeSloth
Expect ENPH breakout by EOY 2025. Buy <$60Trends: - LT parallel channel shown marks some key trendlines for the company since IPO - LT falling wedge intersects the bottom of this channel H2 2025 --> a buying opportunity above $50. If that breaks, falling wedge ends around $35, a 30% downside (or 40% vs today's price). - The early 2023 peak aligned with peak in revenue and net income (decline matched stock decline). We're now seeing revenue and net income growth again (growth can bring back stock growth) My Bias: I'm a long-term believer in solar. ENPH plays mostly in the residential solar space (and is expanding into small commercial). They are often lauded for their high levels of customer service. Investment Thesis: We're back to financial growth but the stock is down. We're in a few months window before LT trends converge mid / H2 2025. If we break bullish from falling wedge and hit LOWEST point of parallel channel by EOY 2026, we'd be at $70/share (16% upside from $60; 40% upside from $50). This is my expected worst case scenario, meaning anything under $60/share is now a buying opportunity.
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by HandsomeSloth
Hyperliquid $HYPE to $100 once Bitcoin re-establishes an uptrendHyperliquid has found product market fit as the most used on-chain perpetual swap decentralized exchange in crypto. It is consistently among the top 5 in daily revenue among all crypto blockchains, applications, on-chain products etc, most recently often coming up in 3rd behind stablecoin comanies circle (usdc) and tether (usdt). What separates Hyperliquid from the market isn't an irreplicable ux/ui, a completley novel or broad defi offering, no - what separates Hyperliquid is its design, community, and team. Hyperliquid is often talked about as one of the only projects truly building in the original vision of crypto. The team took no VC funding, issued a massive airdrop to the community, and paid themselves only in $ HYPE. The incentives here between the team and the community are well aligned for long term success. Jeff, the founder of Hyperliquid often talks about wanting to build the blockchain to houses all of finance and is owned by the people. Recently Hyperliquid achieved two major milestones, one is the launch of spot Bitcoin available to trade, deposit, and withdraw from the Hyperliquid exchange, and the other was the launch of the HyperEVM, allowing developers to deploy applications on the Hyperliquid blockchain. Both of these verticals will be developed further (more spot, and perpetual offerings, as well as more revenue from applications on the EVM), and this could easily lead to Hyperliquid surpassing Circle in daily revenue before the end of 2025. Now you might be asking, why does the revenue matter for $ HYPE, because most tokens are not designed for any sort of direct value accrual from the native blockchain. Most tokens have insignificant revenue and even if it were to increase it likely would not directly benefit the users (the token price could go up, but the revenue is likely directly benefiting the VCs who funded the project). However, with Hyperliquid, not only is the revenue significant because they built a flagship app with product market fit, it directly benefits the holders of $ HYPE token as a significant portion (%s reported vary between 50+% -95%) goes to buying back $HYPE. Since the token generation event at the end of October, the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund (where revenue goes to buy back $ HYPE) has purchased 4.776% of the circulating supply, almost 16 million $ HYPE tokens worth just over 307 million dollars ($ HYPE 19.2 at time of writing). The assitance fund is consistently buying over a million dollars in $ HYPE per day and this number has clear path for growth from multiple angles. TLDR: Hyperliquid is relatively mispriced versus Solana and Ethereum, and while crypto is in the gutter at the moment, $ HYPE has held up moderately but relatively well. I would not be surprised to see $ HYPE trade as low as $10-$13.5, but this token has the best fundamentals in the game. Additionally, arguably the most competent and incentive aligned team. The market will reprice this over time. Staking hyperliquid or using the hyper EVM has a nonzero chance of being rewarded with another $ HYPE airdrop in the future, as there are still more locked tokens designated for community rewards. $ HYPE to $100+ once Bitcoin re-establishes an uptrend.
PYTH:HYPEUSDLong
by afmerca
Target $95-125 entry for LT investmentTechnicals and Fundamentals - Divergence marked the top - 50-60% pull-backs common --> $95 or $120 - Revenue growing YoY (and backlog is not fully dependent on Ukraine) - Broke below 3-year trendline since 2022 lows, next long-term trendline support at 9-year trendline (also near $95) - 30-40% gross margins. Lower Net income margins (as investing in growth: acquiring Blue Halo, building new facility in Salt Lake City) Headwinds: - Watch March 4th earnings. I expect disappointment (per Ukraine/US difficulties) - Dependent on government purchases "you only have 1 customer in this market" - CEO quote. This is concerning in light of DOGE. However, AVAV could be a winner of shift to UAVs (and cheaper warfare technology in general) Investment Thesis: AVAV is investing in the future with M&A and construction of new facilities. It's revenue is growing steadily and the firm has high future earnings potential. The stock is down big from the war 'bubble' popping, but history shows 50-60% corrections are common, which would align with technical support at or above ~$95. Therefore, I see this move downward as a great buying opportunity for long-term (5+ year) investments. Will target entries $95-125, with focus around 200W MA.
NASDAQ:AVAVLong
by HandsomeSloth
1