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[Short] XAUUSD (before starting a journey to $4000K !!!?)Goldman: Strong Asia Session Gold Buying with the 8th Consecutive Overnight Rally; 4,500/oz a Tail Risk Scenario By eFXdata — Apr 16 - 10:30 AM Synopsis: Gold has surged to new highs amid persistent overnight buying from Asia, with volumes well above average. Goldman Sachs highlights that despite the rally, positioning is not yet stretched. Their bullish year-end forecast now stands at $3,700/oz, with a $4,500/oz tail-risk scenario under potential Fed policy shifts. Key Points: Asian Buying Momentum: Spot gold broke Monday’s highs, marking eight consecutive overnight rallies driven by strong Asia session demand. Elevated Volumes: Trading volumes are currently running ~40% above the 10-session average at this time of day. Positioning Still Roomy: CFTC, ETF, and open interest data indicate speculative positioning is not yet extended, suggesting room for further upside. Goldman’s Upgraded Outlook: GS recently raised their 2025 year-end forecast to $3,700/oz, citing: Increased ETF inflows Continued central bank buying Elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty Tail Scenario: If the Fed is forced to subordinate policy due to debt concerns or US reserve currency shifts, GS sees gold potentially spiking to $4,500/oz. Conclusion: Goldman views the current rally as sustainable, with strong physical demand and investor inflows from Asia underpinning the move. Positioning remains far from euphoric, supporting their constructive outlook, while macro risks could trigger a super-spike scenario in the months ahead. Source: www.efxdata.com ============================================================================= (Reuters) -Goldman Sachs has increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per troy ounce (toz), citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and heightened recession risks impacting ETF inflows. The investment bank, whose previous year-end forecast was $3,300, said it expected central bank demand to average 80 tonnes per month, up from its previous assumption of 70 tonnes and well above the pre-2022 baseline of 17 tonnes per month. The bank also noted a surge in gold ETF inflows, driven by fears of a recession, with its economists assigning a 45% probability to a U.S. recession in the next 12 months. Spot gold has continued its rally from the last year, hitting multiple record highs and gaining more than 23% so far this year. Bullion breached $3,200 an ounce for the first time on Friday. The bank's analysis also said that in the medium-term, the risks to their upgraded forecast remain skewed to the upside. If central bank buying averages 100 tonnes/month, Goldman estimates that gold could reach $3,810/toz by end-2025. On the ETF side, if a recession occurs, ETF inflows could revert back to pandemic levels, supporting prices towards $3,880/toz by year-end. However, if economic growth outperforms expectations due to reduced policy uncertainty, ETF flows would likely revert back to their rates-based prediction, with year-end prices closer to $3,550/toz, Goldman said. The following is a list of the latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce): Brokerage/Agen Annual Price Price Targets --------------------------------------------------- cy Forecasts 2025 2026 Goldman Sachs $3,295 $3,700 by 2025 year-end Commerzbank $3,000 HSBC $3,015 $2,915 $2,750 by 2027 and $2,350 long-term Deutsche Bank $3,139 $3,700 $3,350 by year-end ANZ * $2,763 $2,795 $2,900 by end-2025 Macquarie $2,951 $2,675 - UBS $3,500 - $3,000 by end-2025 BofA $3,063 $3,350 - JP Morgan $2,863 $3,019 $3,000 by Q4 2025 Morgan Stanley $2,763 $2,450 - Citi Research $2,900 $2,800 0-3 month forecast at $3,200 and 6-12 month forecast at $3,000; $3,500 by end-2025 *end-of-period forecasts Source: www.marketscreener.com
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by miladaghdak
BTCUSDT – Liquidity Clustered, Volume Lying, and a Trap Brewing BTCUSDT – Liquidity Clustered, Volume Lying, and a Trap Brewing (April 21, 2025) by Pôncio Pacífico – Institutional flow, obscene leverage, zero mercy 📍 Market Context Bitcoin is trapped in a low-volatility chop range between $84.2K and $85.8K. Open Interest is rising while price stays flat = someone is building a position… and someone else is about to be slaughtered. The Asian market is open. So is the manipulation season. 🔎 Key Zones Visible POC: $85.5K – the battlefield of confused traders. Key Resistance: $86.3K – liquidation zone for overconfident shorters. Key Support: $83.8K – emotional refuge of poorly placed longs. 🧠 Institutional Tools (no MACD tourist traps): Delta: Positive, but not supported by real volume = spoofing or passive absorption. Open Interest: Rising during consolidation = trap loading. Bookmap: Hidden sell blocks above = fake breakout incoming. 📉 Trading Plan (2 Scenarios) Scenario A – Squeeze & Dump (most likely) → Quick push to $86.2K–$86.4K to wipe out shorts → Hard reversal targeting $84.7K and $83.8K → Entry: Short @ $86.200 → SL: $86.600 → TP1: $84.700 / TP2: $83.800 Scenario B – Bear Trap with V-Recovery → Fake breakdown to $83.800 to liquidate longs → Snapback reversal into $85.5K+ → Entry: Long @ $83.800 → SL: $83.400 → TP1: $85.500 / TP2: $86.200 🧾 Conclusion BTC is about to explode. Delta and OI scream manipulation. If you’re trading without heatmaps or order flow, you’re funding a market maker’s new yacht. This is not a battle between bulls and bears. It’s between those who read the market... and those who guess it.
by NunoSid
EURNZD Starting a Bullish Reversal After Breaking the Downtrend Technical Overview: On the 4H timeframe, EURNZD appears to be breaking out of a descending trendline that has been intact since early April. The pair formed a higher low around the 1.8984 level, suggesting early signs of a bullish reversal. Price is currently trading near 1.9212 after breaking the trendline and retesting it as support. If momentum holds, potential targets lie around 1.9745 and 2.0000, with a stop loss below 1.9152. Fundamental View: Fundamentally, the euro remains supported by expectations of steady or possibly tighter monetary policy from the ECB, especially if inflation pressures persist. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar continues to weaken due to signs of economic slowdown and a more neutral stance from the RBNZ. This divergence in monetary policy outlooks favors further upside in EURNZD. Extra Note: Keep an eye on a clean 4H candle close above 1.9220 with strong bullish momentum. High volume accompanying the breakout would further confirm the bullish scenario.
Long
by Aser_Hosary
GBPUSD Happy Easter Traders! 4/20 6:33pm. I’m currently holding a sell position on GBP/USD at 1.32480, and despite price climbing to 1.32942, I see several technical and fundamental factors that support my trade idea. Fundamental Perspective Looking ahead, this week presents major economic events that could drive volatility in GBP/USD. UK PMI (April 23): Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 44.1, while Services PMI may soften to 51.0—both indicators suggest economic slowdown, potentially putting downward pressure on GBP. US Durable Goods (April 24): Forecasts show mixed numbers—headline durable goods is projected at +1.8%, but ex-transportation and ex-defense figures are negative, meaning uncertainty surrounding USD demand. UK Retail Sales (April 25): The monthly figure is expected at -0.3%, signaling weaker consumer spending. This aligns with my sell bias, as deteriorating UK economic conditions could contribute to pound weakness. If the UK data disappoints while US figures remain mixed or slightly stronger, GBP/USD could face renewed selling pressure, validating my position. Technical Analysis - Historical & Indicator Confirmation Looking at the daily chart, there’s strong alignment between price action and indicator readings that suggest a potential reversal: Resistance Holding at 1.330–1.331: The Stochastic at 74.88 suggests GBP/USD is nearing overbought conditions. The Williams %R at -22.24 reinforces the idea that price is pushing into exhaustion territory. Support Structure (Where Downside Pressure Could Build): Immediate Support at 1.326–1.327: Previous lows from April 20 confirm this zone as a critical level for sellers. Secondary Support at 1.321: Multiple recent price reactions suggest this area could serve as a strong downside target. Deeper Support at 1.316–1.318: If bearish momentum strengthens, this area represents a key swing low. Additionally, while price is pushing higher in the short term, it’s trading well above long-term daily EMAs, suggesting the rally is a temporary overextension rather than a sustained breakout. If GBP/USD fails to break above 1.330–1.331, momentum could shift in favor of my sell trade. Trade Management & Outlook Despite the recent push higher, I remain confident in my sell position as long as GBP/USD does not break and hold above 1.330–1.331. If price starts rejecting this level, the next downside target could be 1.326, followed by 1.321, where I’d consider taking partial profits. With fundamental catalysts ahead, volatility will likely increase. If bullish momentum persists beyond 1.331, I may need to re-evaluate my position, but until that happens, my trade setup remains valid. Final Thoughts My sell at 1.32480 is built on strong reasoning—key fundamental risks, extended technical levels, and a solid structure of resistance all favor a potential reversal. If sellers step in soon, I’ll have the opportunity to secure profits on a well-planned move. Now, it’s a waiting game to see how price reacts to resistance and upcoming data.
Short
by Sel_Ali
Junk Bonds on Bounce?The High Yield Corporate Bond ETF AMEX:HYG is a widely watched risk sentiment gauge, as seen within the renowned "Fear and Greed Index," and closely tied to credit conditions and investor appetite for riskier debt. It reflects how much confidence the market has in lower-rated corporate borrowers—making it a strong proxy for broader risk-on/risk-off shifts. Technically, HYG looks like it may have completed a five wave impulsive structure from the 2022 lows, followed by an ABC correction that found support near 75.60. That (C) leg could mark the end of the correction, especially with recent price action holding above Kumo cloud support on lower timeframes, hinting at a potential reversal or at least stabilization. Fundamentally, there’s a lot in flux. Inflation is still sticky, which has kept the Fed cautious on any immediate rate cuts. At the same time, tariff talk targeting Chinese imports rekindled fears of trade friction and margin compression—especially for leveraged companies. Credit stress is also rising, with default rates ticking up in weaker sectors like consumer credit and commercial real estate. The silver lining for bulls: the U.S. dollar has recently pulled back, easing pressure on corporate borrowers and global funding conditions. A weaker dollar can be supportive of high-yield credit as it reduces debt servicing burdens, especially for firms with dollar-denominated liabilities. Junk bonds are approaching a pivotal level. A clean break above the $78 would strengthen the case for a bullish reversal and a new impulsive phase. But if resistance holds and price rolls over, it may warn that markets aren't out of the woods yet. In any case, HYG remains a powerful gauge within the market’s risk engine.
AMEX:HYGLong
by NantzOS
2
DXY SINGLING DANGER! UPTADE! Bad things happen when the dollar gets too strong.... Well, "the bad thing" now seems to be the dollar itself crashing lower. What a difference 2 months can make! Waging economic war against our allies, pulling military defense from allies, isolationism has not been working as expected. In fact, Trump has overplayed his cards, and his tactics are backfiring. CAUTION is in order!! Target not reached! Forced on me. As mentioned back on January 18, 2025, when the dollar gets this strong, bad things happen. As you can now all see, bad things did happen. Markets are crashing, and we are headed for an economic depression! WARNING!
TVC:DXYShort
by RealMacro
4
DXY SINGLING DANGER!Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen! With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming. Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian Currency Crisis. Russian ruble & economic collapse is now a certainty! Russia has lost the war no matter what they are trying to do on the battlefield it is irrelevant as the economy is now suffering from Dutch Disease. (So Much for the BRICS fantasy!) Most Americans believe a strong dollar is good. They are wrong. Here are a few things to know about a strong US Dollar. 1. A strong dollar weakens exports, costing American jobs as everything America made becomes more expensive to the rest of the world. 2. US Imports increase as everything internationally made becomes cheaper. 3. Acquiring USD as foreign reserves becomes much more difficult and expensive. As exporters to the US have to produce more for less $s. 4. US investment in international currency collapses, forcing inflation, rates higher making borrowing/investment in foreign economies weaker. Leading to a snowball effect. 5. Commodities are traded in USD. As such energy/food to many poor nations will become a problem as they are net importers with already limited access to NYSE:S it will be magnified. 6. Finally (I could go on but I won't you get the point) when everyone leans on one side of the boat it capsizes. Meaning when everyone is running to invest in the US & the dollar. Techanically how high can the USD go? -120 is likely. (hopefully not much more) -Longer term if things get bad enough it can break all-time highs of 165 as we have this massive bottoming inverse HEAD & SHOULDERS in place. CARNAGE! - What I hope will happen is that it hits previous recent highs of 115 and that will be it for the upside. HOWEVER! We do have a rising structure that needs to be corrected. As such when it does correct there is a good possibility it tests previous lows. For now, if you live in the US. enjoy dollar strength and think about how much worse inflation would have been if the $ was weakening. ))
TVC:DXYLong
by RealMacro
2
$LCID Future Growth ​Investors may adopt a bullish stance on Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) due to substantial insider buying, particularly by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia. In October 2024, PIF purchased approximately 396 million shares at $2.59 each, totaling over $1 billion. This significant acquisition increased PIF's holdings to more than 2.2 billion shares, representing a majority stake in the company .​ Such large-scale insider purchases are often interpreted as a strong vote of confidence in a company's future prospects. PIF's continued investment suggests optimism about Lucid's strategic direction, including its expansion into the electric SUV market with the upcoming Gravity model and recent acquisitions aimed at enhancing production capabilities .​ While other insiders have engaged in stock sales, these are relatively minor compared to PIF's investments. For instance, in August 2024, Eric Bach, Lucid's SVP of Product and Chief Engineer, sold approximately 90,000 shares for $282,000 . Overall, the scale of PIF's purchases indicates a bullish outlook on Lucid's long-term potential.​ Sources: Insider Ownership and Buys (Public Investment Fund - PIF): ➤ SimplyWall.St - LCID Insider Ownership ➤ SEC Form 4 Data for LCID Insiders Recent Insider Sale by Eric Bach (SVP of Product): ➤ SEC Form 4 - Eric Bach Insider Transaction Lucid's Financial and Strategic Overview: ➤ Finviz - LCID Financial Overview & News
NASDAQ:LCIDLong
by BigeMarket
EUR/NZD About to Explode? Traders Are Watching THIS Level!📊 General Analysis of EUR/NZD (Higher Timeframe) 1. 📌 Price Context The price had a strong bounce from a demand zone (highlighted in light blue) around 1.85. It then broke through multiple supply zones (gray and maroon) to the upside and is currently hovering near 1.91874. 🔍 Key Zones 🔵 Demand Zone (Support) Range: 1.8430 – 1.8712 This zone has been tested multiple times, with long wicks to the downside → indicating strong buying interest. A powerful bullish move originated from this area. 🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance) Current resistance: 1.9187 – 1.9450 This is where the price is currently paused → potential rejection area. Monthly upper zone (1M): 1.96 – 2.00 A strong long-term resistance. If reached, we might see profit-taking or even a reversal. 🕯️ Candles & Momentum The large green candle represents a strong bullish breakout. The weekly candle (labeled "1W") shows indecision → this could be a pause before continuation or the beginning of a pullback. 🔮 Possible Future Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario If the price decisively breaks above 1.9187, the next target is 1.9600 – 2.0000. ⚠️ Bearish Scenario If price gets rejected at current levels, it may fall back into the support zone 1.8712 – 1.8500, which has previously shown strength. 📈 Lower Indicator (Likely RSI or Wavetrend) Currently bouncing from an oversold area. No clear overbought signals → there’s room for more upside. 🧭 Conclusion Current trend: Bullish (especially in the short to mid term). Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.9187 and 1.96–2.00 Support: 1.8712 and 1.85
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Which altcoins hold the potential to conquer the crypto market?Have you ever heard of ISO 20022? Do you know what this standard is all about? Which tokens have adopted or are compliant with this standard? ISO 20022 is an international standard for the exchange of financial data between financial institutions, banks, corporations, and other entities. Developed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), its purpose is to provide a universal language for financial messaging on a global scale. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. The main points are summarized in 3 clear lines at the end 📋 This will help you level up your understanding of the market 📊 and Bitcoin💰. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: A Personal Perspective: Bitcoin is currently near a strong trendline and a solid daily support level. I’m expecting it to break the $90,000 mark, a key psychological level, within the next few days. My main target is at least a 7% increase, reaching $90,500. 📈 Now , let's dive into the educational section, which builds upon last week's lesson (linked in the tags of this analysis). Many of you have been eagerly waiting for this, as I have received multiple messages about it on Telegram. 🔍 What Is ISO 20022 and Why Should Traders Care? Have you come across ISO 20022 and wondered what it really means in the world of finance and crypto? It’s not just a technical standard—it could be a major bridge between traditional finance and blockchain-based assets. 🌐 A Global Standard for Financial Messaging ISO 20022 is an international protocol developed by the International Organization for Standardization. It defines a universal language for exchanging financial data between institutions—banks, governments, payment networks, and corporations. 💡 Key Features of ISO 20022 • Uses XML-based message formatting—both machine and human-readable • Covers multiple financial areas: payments, securities, trade, treasury, and cards • Highly flexible and extendable to future innovations • Designed to reduce processing errors and boost interoperability worldwide 📈 Why It’s Becoming a Big Deal With increasing digitization, the global financial system is shifting toward unified communication standards. Major infrastructures like SWIFT are already migrating to ISO 20022 to future-proof their operations. 🪙 The Crypto Connection Some cryptocurrencies have been developed to align with ISO 20022 standards. This means they have the potential to integrate directly into regulated financial systems—making them more likely to be adopted by banks and governments. ✅ ISO 20022-Compliant Cryptocurrencies (As of 2024) • XRP (Ripple) • XLM (Stellar) • XDC (XinFin) • IOTA • ALGO (Algorand) • QNT (Quant) • HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) 🤝 Why Compliance Matters If traditional finance fully adopts ISO 20022, only tokens that meet its criteria will likely be considered for official integration. This could have huge implications for utility, regulation, and long-term value. 🧠 Strategic Insight for Investors Incorporating ISO 20022-compliant assets into your portfolio isn’t just about trends—it’s about positioning yourself for future financial system evolution. These tokens may play a key role in bridging the gap between DeFi and TradFi. However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice ⚠️. The crypto market carries high risks 📉, so always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅. 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 ISO 20022 is a global financial messaging standard designed to streamline data exchange between banks and institutions. It's becoming crucial as traditional systems like SWIFT adopt it for greater efficiency. Several cryptocurrencies, including XRP, XLM, and ALGO, are ISO 20022-compliant, positioning them for future integration with mainstream financial systems. This compliance could lead to wider adoption by banks and governments, making them more valuable long-term. 🚀 Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
20
If the market reaches the $88,490 level, we'll look for selling.BTCUSDT Weekly Analysis: Navigating the Range-Bound Market Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading in a range-bound market, showcasing a delicate balance between buying and selling pressures. As traders, it's essential to identify key levels and potential trading opportunities. Key Selling Area: $88,490 We've identified a crucial selling area at $88,490, where sellers are actively participating. This level has the potential to cap upward movements, and we're waiting for the market to reach this zone. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell Setup: If the market reaches the $88,490 level, we'll look for selling opportunities, targeting lower levels and taking advantage of potential downward momentum. 2. Alternative Scenario: If the market doesn't reach the $88,490 zone, we'll wait for a clear breakdown from the current range, with a candle closing below the range. This would signal a potential shift in market sentiment. Market Outlook: The range-bound market presents both challenges and opportunities. By monitoring key levels and waiting for confirmation, we can make informed trading decisions and navigate the markets effectively. What to Watch: 1. $88,490 Level: A key selling area that could determine the next move. 2. Range Boundaries: Monitoring the current range and waiting for a breakdown or breakout. 3. Market Sentiment: Keeping an eye on market sentiment and adjusting our strategy accordingly. By staying vigilant and adapting to market conditions, we can capitalize on potential trading opportunities and navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Peter_Wade
Grayscale didn’t buy the dip they bought the entire f**ing chartWhile retail paper hands cried for exit liquidity, Grayscale turned snipers. FIL supply increased over 4,000x in their vaults — at ATL prices. They didn’t average down — they erased their old average. You think they’re selling at $3? Nah. They’re aiming at triple digits while retail hesitates at resistance. This isn’t hope. It’s math. It’s how institutions win. Check www.coinglass.com #FIL #SmartMoney #Grayscale #CryptoAccumulation #CryptoWarfare #MarketMakers #InstitutionalTrading
KRAKEN:FILUSD
by BroLal
CREDIT CRISISWe are beginning to see evidence of a credit crisis starting. low demand for US bonds can trigger a currency crisis for the USD, higher rates will lead to refinancing company problems (especially with all the zombie companies that should have blown up over a decade ago.) and major economic depression-style job losses. Currently, we are very early stages but things are moving at lightning speed on a macroeconomic level. I know this is likely gibberish to most here pon trading view but it is of MASSIVE importance to your trading and investing. CAUTION IS IN ORDER!! Click boost, follow, and subscribe! I can help you navigate these crazy times.
FX:JPYBASKETLong
by RealMacro
7