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Fundamental Analysis

Where will gold go?In 4 hours, it has fallen below the previous low of 3295, and will continue to fall. There are two supports below, namely 3280 and 3265. Don't expect a big rebound before going short in a negative market. If the rebound is large, it will not fall. This kind of negative decline is generally judged by the 15- and 30-minute patterns. When resistance appears in the big cycle, the market has actually fallen a lot. Today, I think the pressure is mainly in the 3300 and 3310 areas. 3310 can be considered as the pressure of the top and bottom conversion. Pay attention to 3280 and 3265 below. If you consider going long, these two positions are the main positions. For the time being, the general direction is mainly short.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
3
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – June 27, 2025Hey traders! Today’s a trader’s dream: high-impact US news, gold trapped in a tight coil between supply and demand, and price flirting with the decision zone. The first breakout will be explosive — but only one side survives the trap. Let’s lock in the real structure, real bias, and sniper-level execution. 🔸 HTF Bias Breakdown Daily Bias: Neutral → Price trapped between major supply (3359) and HTF demand (3282). Expect breakout after news. H4 Bias: Bearish → Lower highs holding below 3359, structure weak below 3340. H1 Bias: Mixed → Bullish momentum building off 3310–3282, but compression under EMAs warns of a fake rally. 🔹 Key Levels Above Price 3385 – Final top-side liquidity zone (last week’s spike high) 3359–3344 – HTF supply & OB (main short zone) 3340–3330 – The pivot zone (battle for control) 🔸 Key Levels Below Price 3317–3310 – Primary demand zone (where buyers stepped in yesterday) 3297–3282 – Deep liquidity pocket & HTF OB (last chance for bulls) 3260 – Breakdown zone if everything fails below 🔥 Sniper Zones & Execution Logic 🔴 3385–3375 – Extreme Supply Only trade this zone if NY news launches price up and rejection is instant. Needs M5/M15 bearish reversal (engulfing, CHoCH, FVG fill). No news spike = no trade. 🔴 3359–3344 – Main Supply Zone This is your first real short setup. Sweep into this area + rejection = clean short trigger. Confluence: HTF OB, FVG, EMA 100 rejection, bearish CHoCH. ⚔️ 3340–3330 – Pivot Decision Zone This is where direction flips. Break and hold above 3340 = bullish → targets 3359 / 3375 Rejection under 3330 = bearish → back toward 3310 or 3282 Plan: Use for break/retest entries only with M5/M15 confirmation. No blind trades. 🟢 3317–3310 – Primary Demand Zone Watch for news-induced sweep, then M15 bullish PA (CHoCH, engulfing, RSI bounce). First safe buy zone if structure holds. 🟢 3297–3282 – Deep Demand Zone Only used if NY session nukes the market. Enter only on textbook SMC/ICT reversal + RSI sub-30. This is the last stand for bulls. 🧠 Execution Strategy Wait for NY news and first liquidity sweep. Don’t guess. Sell 3359–3344 or 3375+ only on strong rejection Buy 3310 or 3282 only on bullish reversal confirmation Pivot 3340–3330 is the heart of today — use for break/retest or trap reversal If you love clear logic, tap like, follow, and share your bias in the comments! 🚀👇 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and I'm using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles. G‌o‌l‌d‌F‌x‌M‌i‌n‌d‌s
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
1
Gold might rebound significantly today, with a potential reversa Gold might rebound significantly today, with a potential reversal zone around 3250–3285. Technically , gold has been in a bear market for the second consecutive week, pushing the RSI into the oversold zone up to 1H timeframe. This suggests a potential rebound soon, allowing the bears to take a breather before resuming the downtrend. Additionally, the price has now approached the ascending trendline that has been drawn since the beginning of the year (spanning six months) making it a significant level (The longer the trendline holds, the more significant its technical relevance), and the current test could trigger a price reaction. Structurally, gold has been range-bound within the 3200–3400 consolidation zone for several months. This has created many supports and resistances in that range, making it difficult for prices to break below that zone in a single move. The 3250–3280 zone is seen as a potential turning point, supported by: 1. The ascending trendline intersecting near 3255 2. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg aligning near 3250 3. The support zone hold around 3270-3280 Based on an Elliott Wave theory , the market may currently be in a Complex Corrective Wave or Combination Corrective Wave, consisting of the series of a-b-c subwaves. The current move appears to be approaching the end of minor wave a, with wave b rebound anticipated to follow. From a macroeconomic view , today’s release of the PCE inflation data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and FOMC members speak, could cause significant volatility to gold prices. This is a suitable opportunity for a price reversal during high volatility. The price may be pressured lower before rebounding. The current pressure seem to stem from the market expectations that PCE data will increase due to recent surges in oil prices and the potential inflationary effects of tariffs, leading to current gold selling pressure as market less expect the Fed rate cut. However, if PCE data surprises to the downside, it could trigger the opposite reaction, a gold rebound, as the market would start to price in a higher likelihood of earlier Fed rate cuts. Even if PCE released high, as expected, there might be positions unwind to take profit once the fact is realized, pushing gold prices up. Therefore, the odds currently favor a buy-on-dip in gold. However, even if a price reversal occurs today, a stable upward trend cannot be expected yet. The price remains in a corrective wave, and the Fed is unlikely to rush interest rate cuts soon. They will likely wait for clarity on Trump's reciprocal tariff policy and their economic impact. Moreover, inflation has not yet reached the Fed's target of 2.0%. Therefore, the market could still be disappointed by the Fed's cautious stance during this period, which would continue to pressure gold prices. The expected rebound range is about $70–$100, with an initial target of around 3370–3400, before potentially reversing downward again. Gold prices next week are likely to remain in a rebound theme . Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:GOLDLong
by KrisadaYoonaisil
$AMD – Major Support Flip?📊 Technical Analysis NASDAQ:AMD looks poised for a breakout continuation, with multiple technical signals aligning: Price recently flipped major historical support/resistance (~$132.75–133.18), a level that has acted as a launchpad multiple times in the past (highlighted by the boxed reactions). After a strong rally, a pullback into this zone (marked by the arrow) would be healthy and may offer a prime long opportunity if the level holds. Bullish projection targets a move toward the next key resistance area around $184.52, followed by a long-term fib extension / prior high zone at $226–227.60. Structure remains clean – bullish continuation pattern after a breakout from a prolonged range. ⚙️ Macro & Fundamental Drivers 🧠 AI & Data Center Tailwinds AMD continues to be a major beneficiary of the AI boom, especially with its MI300X AI GPU chips entering competition with Nvidia's offerings. Big cloud customers (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) are increasing adoption of AMD’s accelerators in 2025 deployments. Analysts are increasingly bullish on AMD’s data center market share gains in 2H 2025. 💼 Earnings Momentum Strong recent earnings report beat both revenue and EPS expectations. Forward guidance remains upbeat, driven by AI, custom silicon, and embedded segments. Gross margins expanding — indicating strong operational leverage. 📉 Rate Cut Hopes + Tech Rotation Markets are pricing in Fed rate cuts late 2025, improving sentiment for high-beta tech. Institutional flows are rotating back into semiconductors after a Q2 pullback. 🇺🇸 CHIPS Act Support U.S. government funding continues to support domestic chip production, indirectly benefiting AMD by bolstering its supply chain and CapEx plans. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry Zone: $133–138 (retest zone / support flip) Stop Loss: Below $130 Target 1: $184.52 Target 2: $203.71 Target 3 (Stretch): $226–227 ⚠️ Risks Macro risks: Unexpected Fed hawkishness or broader tech selloff. Competitive risks from Nvidia or delays in data center adoption cycles. 📌 Conclusion NASDAQ:AMD is retesting a critical structural level with strong bullish momentum. With the AI narrative heating up, macro tailwinds forming, and technicals aligned, this could be the next major breakout candidate in the semiconductor space.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Kristjan_Maximus
EUR/USD Pair Hits Yearly HighEUR/USD Pair Hits Yearly High Yesterday, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose above the 1.1700 level for the first time this year. The last time one euro was worth more than 1.70 US dollars was in autumn 2019. The main driver behind the euro’s rise is the weakening dollar, largely due to decisions made by the Trump administration. This week alone, the EUR/USD pair has gained more than 2%, partly as a result of escalating tensions between the US President and the Chair of the Federal Reserve. According to Reuters, Trump called Powell “terrible” and said he had three or four candidates in mind for the top job at the Fed. It was also reported that Trump had considered selecting and announcing a replacement for Powell by September or October (his current term officially runs until May 2026). Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart Price movements are forming an upward channel (highlighted in blue), with the following observations: → Midweek, the price consolidated around the channel’s median line (as indicated by arrow 1); → It then broke through the 1.6300 level with strong bullish momentum (shown by arrow 2), a level that had acted as resistance earlier in the month; → The long upper wicks on the candles forming yesterday’s highs (circled) suggest increased selling pressure near the upper boundary of the channel. Given this, we could assume that in the short term, the price might form a new consolidation zone around the median line above the 1.6300 level. Significant fundamental catalysts would be required to break the developing upward trend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
$OXY – Positioning for a Bullish Breakout ?📊 Technical Overview NYSE:OXY has been in a prolonged downtrend, but recent price action is showing a potential structural reversal: LL to HL / HH shift suggests the downtrend may be bottoming out. Currently forming a Higher Low (HL) after printing two Higher Highs (HH) – a classic bullish market structure. Key support held firm around the $34.80–35.00 zone, which aligns with a historically strong demand area. Target range identified between $55.35–55.55, where previous consolidation occurred. A sustained move above $45 could confirm a breakout from the current consolidation and open up room to the upside. 💡 Macro Tailwinds Several economic and geopolitical factors may support a bullish case for NYSE:OXY : 🔺 Oil Price Stability WTI crude has been resilient above $70–75, with supply constraints and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East & Russia sanctions) keeping a floor under oil prices. If oil trends higher (seasonal summer demand + hurricane season), OXY’s revenue outlook improves. 🌍 Global Energy Demand Global demand for fossil fuels remains elevated, particularly in emerging markets. While ESG pressures remain, oil & gas continues to be critical in the transition phase. 💰 Warren Buffett Factor Berkshire Hathaway continues to increase its stake in Occidental, signaling long-term conviction. Buffett now owns over 28% of OXY, and the market often treats this as a strong vote of confidence. 🏦 Interest Rates & Fed Outlook As inflation eases, markets are pricing in potential rate cuts in late 2025, which could support capital-intensive sectors like energy. Lower rates also improve discounted cash flow models, increasing fair value estimates. 🧠 Sentiment & Valuation OXY remains undervalued vs peers on a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA basis. With strong free cash flow, OXY is aggressively paying down debt and buying back shares — supportive of long-term price appreciation. RSI and MACD are neutral – plenty of room for momentum to build. 🎯 Trade Plan Entry Zone: $42.50–43.50 (Current consolidation area) Stop Loss: Below $38 (invalidates HL structure) Target 1: $50 Target 2: $55.50 Target 3 (Stretch): $60+ if oil prices surge ⚠️ Risks A break below $38 would invalidate the bullish structure. Oil price weakness due to recession fears or unexpected OPEC policy shifts. Broader market volatility (Fed, inflation, geopolitical shocks). 🔍 Bottom Line OXY is showing early signs of a bullish reversal on the chart — supported by strong fundamentals, insider confidence (Buffett), and resilient oil prices. If this HL holds, the setup offers a solid risk-reward opportunity toward previous resistance levels.
NYSE:OXYLong
by Kristjan_Maximus
XPTUSD 1W:While Everyone Watches Gold, Platinum Quietly Wakes UpGold gets the headlines — but platinum just broke two years of silence with a clean, high-volume breakout from a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. And this isn’t noise — this is the structural shift traders wait for. Price has been coiled inside a compressing wedge since early 2022. Equal highs. Equal lows. Stop hunts both ways. The classic “shake out before take off.” Now? The breakout is in. And the weekly candle closed above resistance with volume confirmation. Oh, and while we're at it — the 50MA just crossed above the 200MA, signaling a long-term trend reversal. Target? Measure the triangle height: ~398 points. That projects a breakout target of 1440 USD, which aligns perfectly with previous institutional rejection zones. But this isn’t just about the chart. 🔹 South Africa, the top global supplier, is struggling with energy and production cuts; 🔹 The Fed is pausing rate hikes — the dollar weakens, metals rally; 🔹 Demand from hydrogen tech, clean energy, and industrial catalysts is on the rise. Translation? Smart money has been accumulating. The move from 965–1070 was just the ignition. The drive hasn’t started yet. So while everyone fights over gold highs, platinum sits at the base of a move no one's prepared for — except those who know how accumulation ends. 🧭 Key support: 965–985 📍 Resistance zone: 1150–1180 🎯 Measured target: 1440+
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by TotoshkaTrades
3
$PEP Bullish Swing Setup – Oversold & Ready to Rebound ?PepsiCo ( NASDAQ:PEP ) is sitting at a major long-term support after a deep pullback — this could be a strong opportunity for a risk-defined bounce. Here's what the chart is signaling: 🔹 Entry Zone: Price is currently near $128 — a historically significant level that acted as resistance in the past and now aligns with a potential support flip. 🔹 Oversold & Stretched: After a consistent downtrend, NASDAQ:PEP is looking oversold. A bounce is likely as sellers exhaust and dip buyers return at this key level. 🔹 Reversal Structure Building: Early signs of a bottoming pattern are emerging, with potential higher lows forming. If the current structure holds, we could see a climb toward the next resistance zones. 🎯 Targets: TP1: $154 – minor resistance and previous consolidation zone. TP2: $197 – major resistance and range high, aligning with earlier highs. 🛡️ Stop Loss: Below $102 — invalidates the support thesis and breaks structure. 💡 Why Price May Rise: PEP is a defensive name with strong fundamentals, often benefiting during uncertain macro cycles. Valuation is now more attractive after the sell-off. The setup offers a high reward-to-risk ratio, especially if broader markets stabilize. ⚖️ Setup Summary: Entry: ~$128 SL: $102 TP1: $154 TP2: $197 📌 Watching for confirmation with volume or bullish candle structure over the next few sessions. 🚫 Not financial advice — just a technical outlook based on structure and probability.
NASDAQ:PEPLong
by Kristjan_Maximus
A BNPL Bubble Is Actually Why I'm Bullish, For NowBNPL is growing and inflating at an increasing rate. From concert tickets to burritos, everyone is using buy now pay later. The global market is projected to hit 560 billion dollars in 2025, up from around 492 billion in 2024, and climb to 912 billion by 2030 at a compounding growth rate of 10.2%. Just in the U.S. alone, demand is expected to reach 122 billion next year and scale to 184 billion by the end of the decade. The trajectory is steep, with the structural weaknesses already showing. Block is positioned at the center of BNPL. In Q1 2025 they reported: 2.29 billion in gross profit, up 9 percent YoY 466 million in adjusted operating income, up 28% 10.3 billion in GMV through Afterpay, with 298 million in BNPL gross profit, up 23% YoY The stock took a hit. It dropped 9 percent in February and another 21 percent after missing Q1 earnings, but this is seen as typical early bubble behavior. There is short term fear but continuing growth and acceleration. Klarna’s credit losses, IPO delays, and regulatory friction are not problems, they are actually signals that the sector is growing faster than the market, or quite frankly, anyone can control. BNPL is becoming the default credit system for younger consumers. It is overused and expanding too fast. That is the formula for both upside and implosion. However with that, timing will be everything here, and knowing when to close will be crucial if BNPL can't stabilize. Baseline expectation: SQ trades in the 80 to 90 range in the short term Midterm upside: 120 by 2027 Long-term target: 180 to 220 if BNPL stabilizes and Block captures its runway
NYSE:XYZLong
by chrisapach
1
Gold stalls below $3350 as USD weakness continuesGold remains delicately balanced as traders in Asia and Europe proceed with caution. Despite recent USD weakness lending some support, buyers haven’t broken above $3350. 📉 USD Weakness & Market Sentiment – Fragile Recovery? 🔻 Dollar Wobbles: Talk of Fed leadership change is stirring doubt over the USD’s trajectory, adding political risk that may benefit gold. ⚖️ Mixed Sentiment: Gold consolidates in a tight range after early‑week drop. With PCE data and Fed speeches ahead, traders await the next catalyst. 📊 Technical Structure – Consolidation Underway Gold trades below short‑term EMAs, hinting at a bearish pause or stealth accumulation. Current levels near $329X. Key Zones: 🟢 Demand (Buy): $3264 / $3276 / $3294 🔴 Supply (Sell): $3313 / $3321 / $3330 / $3341 🎯 Intraday Trading Plan: 🛒 BUY ZONE: $3264–$3266 (SL: $3270; TPs: $3280 → … → $3320) ⚡️ BUY SCALP: $3282–$3284 (SL: $3278; TPs: $3288 → … → $3330) 📉 SELL ZONE: $3331–$3333 (SL: $3337; TPs: $3326 → … → $3300) ⚠️ SELL SCALP: $3313–$3315 (SL: $3320; TPs: $3310 → … → $3280) 🧭 Watchlist: Friday’s PCE, Fed commentary & Middle East tensions may sway price.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EliseLunaTraders
USDCAD I Weekly CLS I Model 1I Target 3M CLS LowHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS Footprint, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. ✅ Understanding the behavior of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. 📍 Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️ 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Short
by David_Perk
21
“DXY at 3-Year Low | Gold Slips, BTC Stalls – What PCE Data Meann this week’s Market Recap, we break down the key moves across the US Dollar Index (DXY), Gold (XAUUSD), and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) — and how they’re all being shaped by rising Fed uncertainty and looming U.S. inflation data. 🔹 DXY is hovering near 3-year lows as political pressure and expectations of Fed rate cuts weigh on sentiment. 🔸 Gold is slipping near 4-week lows as Middle East tensions ease and risk appetite returns. 🔹 Bitcoin remains flat but poised for a breakout, with macro data in the driver's seat. We explain how each market is reacting, what traders are pricing in ahead of the upcoming PCE inflation data, and how to position yourself in the week ahead. 📌 Covered in this recap: Market sentiment shifts and key news drivers Practical insights for interpreting price action What to watch in next week’s economic calendar 📊 Stay informed, stay prepared. 👉 Like, follow, and comment if you found this helpful. Let’s trade smart.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by DeanMuller
XAUUSD: Gold's Muted Ascent Below $3350 XAUUSD: Gold's Muted Ascent Below $3350 – Navigating Key Levels Amidst USD Weakness! Hello TradingView Community! Let's delve into the intricate world of Gold (XAUUSD) today. The yellow metal is showing a subtle positive bias, largely influenced by a weaker US Dollar, yet a decisive bullish breakout above the $3350 mark remains elusive. 🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: Forces Shaping Gold's Path Gold has maintained a slight positive stance for the second consecutive day, but it's struggling to find significant follow-through, staying below the $3350 level in early European trading. USD Under Pressure – A Tailwind for Gold: The primary driver for Gold's recent strength is the weakening US Dollar. Reports suggesting President Trump is considering replacing Fed Governor Jerome Powell have sparked concerns about the US central bank's future independence. This speculation has fueled market expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year, pushing the USD to its lowest point since March 2022, thereby providing support for non-yielding assets like Gold. Cautious Outlook Prevails: Despite USD weakness, a definitive bullish trend for Gold is not yet confirmed. The ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds firm, with prevailing optimism limiting significant safe-haven rallies. This complex environment necessitates caution before confirming a definitive bottom for Gold or positioning for a substantial recovery from levels below $3300. Key Data Ahead: Traders are keenly awaiting upcoming US macroeconomic data and speeches from FOMC members. These insights will be crucial in influencing XAU/USD, particularly ahead of Friday's pivotal US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release. 📊 XAUUSD Technical Outlook: Pinpointing Strategic Zones Based on recent technical analysis (referencing image_e9d325.png for key levels), Gold is in a consolidation phase after a recent sharp decline, trading around the $329X mark. Price action below shorter-term moving averages suggests either lingering bearish pressure or an accumulation phase. Strong Support Zones (Potential Buy Areas): Critical demand areas are identified around 3294.414, 3276.122, and notably 3264.400. These levels are crucial for potential price bounces. Key Resistance Zones (Potential Sell Areas): Significant supply zones are found at 3313.737, 3321.466, 3330.483, and 3341.947. These are points where selling pressure may emerge. 🎯 XAUUSD Trading Plan: Your Actionable Strategy Here's a breakdown of the strategic entry and exit points for your XAUUSD trades: BUY ZONE (Strong Support - Long-Term Bias): Entry: 3266 - 3264 SL: 3270 TP: 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3320 BUY SCALP (Quick Buy at Intermediate Support): Entry: 3284 - 3282 SL: 3278 TP: 3288 - 3292 - 3296 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3320 - 3330 SELL ZONE (Key Resistance): Entry: 3331 - 3333 SL: 3337 TP: 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 SELL SCALP (Quick Sell at Near Resistance): Entry: 3313 - 3315 SL: 3320 TP: 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 ⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor Closely: US Macro Data: Friday's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is paramount for market direction. FOMC Member Speeches: Any official comments on monetary policy or inflation outlook will significantly impact USD and Gold. Geopolitical Stability: Developments related to the Israel-Iran ceasefire can influence safe-haven demand.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
GBP/CAD - Breakout (27.06.2025)The GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1..8857 2nd Resistance – 1.8909 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
22
"Gold’s War Cry: XAUUSD Eyes $3700 Amid Middle East Turmoil"PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD Gold is once again stepping into the spotlight as global markets reel from escalating geopolitical tensions. With President Trump confirming a full-scale U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—the world is bracing for potential retaliation and broader instability. In times like these, gold doesn’t just shine—it roars. 📈 My Bias: Strongly Bullish 🎯 Targets: - Primary: $3500 - Extended: $3700 These levels are not just technical aspirations—they’re grounded in the reality of rising global risk aversion, central bank accumulation, and a potential flight to safety as the Middle East teeters on the edge of wider conflict. 🔍 Key Technical Zone: - $3341–$3352: This is my immediate area of interest. I expect a pullback into this zone on market open, which could offer a high-probability long setup. - Break Below? If price slices through this zone, I’ll be watching the $3330–$3320 demand area for signs of absorption and reversal. 🧠 Macro Context: - The U.S. strike marks a historic escalation, with Trump declaring the nuclear sites “completely and totally obliterated”. - Iran’s expected retaliation could further destabilize the region, fueling safe haven flows into gold. - Central banks remain net buyers of gold, and with inflation still lurking, real yields remain a key driver. 📊 Confluence Factors: - Rising volume on bullish candles - RSI holding above 50 on higher timeframes - DXY showing signs of topping out - VIX creeping higher—risk-off sentiment brewing 📌 Final Thoughts: Gold is no longer just a hedge—it’s becoming a statement. In a world where headlines move markets, XAUUSD is poised to benefit from both fear and fundamentals. I’ll be watching price action closely at the open, ready to strike if the setup aligns.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Billionaire_bills
15
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 27, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair held positive momentum near 1.3735 during Asian trading on Friday. Concerns over the Fed's future independence continue to undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for the major pair. U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that he is considering selecting the next Fed chairman ahead of schedule, which has spurred fresh controversy over U.S. rate cuts. Trump said the list of potential successors to Powell had shrunk to “three or four people”, without naming any finalists. In addition, weaker-than-expected US gross domestic product (GDP) data also sent the dollar lower. The U.S. economy contracted faster than expected in the first three months of this year, falling 0.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The figure was below the previous estimate and the market consensus of -0.2%. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned earlier this week that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. At its June meeting, the UK central bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, although three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut interest rates. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3750, SL 1.3690, TP 1.3865
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Report - 27 june1. Bond Market Exodus: Why Investors Are Ditching US Long-Term Debt In Q2 2025, net outflows from US long-dated bond funds hit $11 billion, marking the fastest pace since early 2020. This comes despite more than $39 billion pouring into short-dated funds, which are still yielding attractive real returns due to the Fed's high policy rate. This flight from the long end is not just about yield differentials — it’s a clear repricing of sovereign risk and fiscal sustainability. The market is beginning to fear that the US is no longer a guaranteed safe haven at the long-duration end of the curve. President Trump’s renewed tax policies — projected to add trillions to the national debt — are weighing on confidence, while incoming tariffs and the risk of structurally higher inflation amplify concerns. “There is a lot of concern domestically and from the foreign investor community about owning the long end of the Treasury curve.” – Bill Campbell, DoubleLine Market Implication: The term premium is re-emerging — longer bonds must offer significantly higher yields to attract buyers. In real terms, longer-dated Treasuries are down ~1% this quarter, clawing back losses after tariff-induced volatility in April. Strategic Allocation: Stay overweight short-duration debt (SHY, BIL, floating-rate notes) for yield preservation and minimal duration risk. Avoid duration extension. TLT, ZROZ, and long-dated corporates may face additional downside as issuance ramps and demand fades. Consider non-dollar fixed income exposure (e.g., EU sovereigns, South Africa, Brazil), particularly where inflation targeting credibility is rising. Macro Impact: This shift jeopardizes debt affordability. With $33 trillion in debt and rising interest expense, the US could face debt spiral risks unless inflation softens or fiscal discipline returns. An elevated term premium can ripple into mortgages, corporate borrowing, and municipal finance, potentially crowding out private investment. 2. Geopolitical Tensions: Iran's Nuclear Program and the Market's Response Despite US claims of obliterating Iran’s nuclear capabilities in recent strikes, preliminary European intelligence indicates Iran’s 408kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains largely intact. It was reportedly dispersed before the attacks — undercutting the narrative of complete neutralization. President Trump’s remarks, suggesting “nothing was taken out” of the main Fordow facility due to logistical constraints, reflect a public relations overstatement rather than a decisive strategic victory. While US defense officials stand by the attack’s symbolic impact, reports suggest the nuclear program was set back by months, not years. “Trump exaggerated because he needed to... Anyone who heard his remarks could tell there was a different reality.” — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Market Implication: The gold price remains elevated, closing at $3,328.22, up 0.15% on the day, and +26.81% YTD — a clear hedge against geopolitical instability. Oil markets initially spiked but reversed as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held. Brent Crude ended at $67.14, down -6.1% over the week. Defense stocks, particularly in US and Israeli names, are seeing flows as investors anticipate further defense budget expansions. Strategic Allocation: Hold or overweight gold (GLD, XAUUSD) in strategic portfolios as a volatility hedge. Avoid chasing oil at interim highs unless further strikes materialize — use energy exposure as a short-term trade, not a structural bet. Monitor Iranian retaliation risk and its effect on shipping lanes, which would impact insurance costs and transport-linked equities. Macro Impact: With Iran's capacity largely intact, nuclear diplomacy is effectively frozen. The uncertainty adds to regional instability, and markets may underprice the risk of a re-escalation. Meanwhile, continued weapons development forces global powers to shift attention (and potentially resources) away from economic diplomacy. 3. US Export Collapse: Trade Policy Bites the Domestic Economy In May, US goods exports fell by $9.7 billion (–5.2%), marking the largest monthly decline since the pandemic crash in 2020, according to the Census Bureau. Exports totaled $179.2 billion, sharply down from April’s figures. This contraction followed President Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff blitz, which spooked global trading partners. Despite some tariff suspensions, others — such as a blanket 10% duty and sector-specific metals tariffs — remain active. “Amid the de-escalation phase of the tariff story, we are now seeing an unwind in both imports and exports.” — James Knightley, ING Key Export Drivers: Industrial supplies (crude oil, metals): Down 13.6% in May after a 16% surge in April. Vehicle exports: Rebounded +3.5% after a 20% drop in April. Trade deficit: Widened to $96.6 billion, above expectations. Practical Market Implications: Logistics & industrial names (FedEx, Caterpillar) face short-term margin pressure. Commodities sensitive to trade flows — particularly metals — could see softening demand (watch steel and copper ETFs like SLX and COPX). Dollar exposure may become more volatile as lower exports pressure the current account, contributing to a weaker dollar narrative. Broader Economic Impact: With inventories full and international demand softening, US manufacturing will decelerate. Capex and employment in export-sensitive sectors are at risk if the trade environment doesn’t stabilize. Investor Strategy: Short-term caution on transportation (e.g., FedEx reported a sharp drop in China-US freight). Reallocate toward domestic-facing sectors (utilities, consumer staples) that are more insulated from trade. Currency traders may view this as a signal to fade the USD if combined with Fed dovishness. 4. US Debt Avalanche: The Bond Exodus and What It Means for Markets Investors are rapidly fleeing long-term US bonds, with net outflows reaching $11 billion in Q2, the sharpest retreat since early 2020, according to EPFR data. This comes amid growing concern over the US’s ballooning debt load, worsened by Trump’s proposed tax cuts and trade tariffs. “It’s a symptom of a much bigger problem... concern about owning the long end of the Treasury curve.” — Bill Campbell, DoubleLine Why It Matters: Trump's tax plan is forecast to add trillions to federal debt, compelling the Treasury to issue a flood of bonds. Simultaneously, tariffs are feared to fuel inflation, which erodes bond values — especially those with long durations. Market Movement: Long-term US debt fell ~1% in Q2 (Bloomberg index). In contrast, short-term US bond funds gained $39 billion in inflows, driven by high yields at the front end of the curve. “With inflation still above target and heavy government supply, this is driving skittishness about the long end.” — Robert Tipp, PGIM Practical Investment Outlook: Expect higher yields at the long end of the curve if debt issuance remains elevated and inflation expectations rise. Flattening yield curve risk if short-end rates remain high while long-end selling continues. Duration-sensitive portfolios (e.g. pensions) may suffer performance drag unless repositioned. Global Spillovers: A weaker long bond market raises benchmark rates globally, making it costlier for emerging markets to borrow. Foreign investors (e.g., Japan and China) may diversify out of Treasuries, potentially moving capital into higher-yield EM debt or European assets. The sell-off contributes to dollar weakness, especially when coupled with trade disruptions and Trump’s criticism of the Fed. Investor Strategy: Reduce duration exposure; consider floating-rate notes or shorter-dated fixed income instruments. Explore international bonds, especially EM local currency debt, which is currently outperforming. Use steepening yield curve trades (e.g., 2s/10s steepeners) as a way to hedge fiscal risks. 5. Iran’s Nuclear Resilience: What Intel and Markets Tell Us Despite claims from President Trump that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “obliterated” in recent airstrikes, early intelligence assessments suggest otherwise. According to European and US officials, Iran’s 408kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium remains largely intact, having been dispersed to other locations before the strikes. “It did not achieve anything... Trump exaggerated.” — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Strategic Interpretation: US and Israeli strikes targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — key nuclear infrastructure. While significant damage occurred, no total structural collapse was confirmed. This reinforces that Tehran maintains breakout capacity, and could resume enrichment rapidly if it chose to. “The nuclear programme suffered enormous damage... but not complete destruction.” — Rafael Grossi, IAEA Market Impact and Geopolitical Outlook: The revelation that Iran’s uranium reserves survived the assault reduces confidence in the effectiveness of US deterrence. Oil markets remain unfazed. Traders priced in the symbolic nature of Iran’s missile response and read the US-Israel actions as limited in strategic disruption. Brent crude fell sharply by 6.1% to $67/bbl post-ceasefire — evidence markets anticipate no extended supply shock. What to Expect: Volatility premium on oil is falling. No major disruption to Strait of Hormuz = no major repricing. Increased likelihood of backchannel diplomacy, especially as Tehran seeks to assert survival and avoid regime destabilization. However, shadow escalation (e.g., cyber, proxy strikes) remains plausible. Practical Asset Implications: Oil traders are in sell-the-spike mode: Risk-on reactions are now short-lived. Defensive commodity plays (e.g., gold) saw a pullback as perceived geopolitical risk faded. Military-industrial equities may experience cooling momentum unless new threats emerge. Risk of sanctions rollbacks or renegotiations could reprice energy and emerging market assets tied to Iran’s trade (e.g., India, China). 6. Export Shock: Tariffs Bite into US Trade Performance US goods exports plummeted by 5.2% in May, marking the sharpest drop since 2020, as President Trump’s aggressive “Liberation Day” tariff strategy triggered a major disruption in global demand for American goods. Total exports fell to $179.2bn, down $9.7bn from the prior month. Breakdown: Industrial supplies (including oil and metals): –13.6% Vehicles: +3.5% (recovering from a –20% collapse in April) Trade deficit widened to $96.6bn, beating Wall Street expectations. “This is the tariff shock starting to filter into real data.” — ING’s James Knightley Economic Implications: Tariff retaliation and inventory overhang are key drivers of the export decline. Partners reduced US imports anticipating further tariffs or supply chain reshuffles. The loss of export revenue compounds fiscal stress, especially with simultaneous tax cuts and increased military spending. Sectoral Risks: Energy exporters (e.g., Texas oil firms) are hit hard — crude exports falling. Industrial metals and machinery producers face slower foreign orders. Shipping and logistics (e.g., FedEx) flagged the US–China lane as the weakest and most unpredictable trade route. Market Outlook: Dollar weakness persists, with the Dollar Index near a 3-year low, reflecting investor fear over twin deficits (fiscal + trade). Equities may remain resilient, especially domestically focused or tariff-insulated names. However, multinationals with global exposure could underperform due to shrinking foreign sales. What to Expect: Volatility in trade data until clarity returns on tariff regimes. Renewed calls for bilateral trade talks or exemptions from key US partners (e.g., EU, Mexico). Watch for nearshoring trends to accelerate as companies avoid tariff risk. 7. EM Rally: Emerging Markets Outshine Developed Peers Amid US Fiscal Anxiety In a stunning reversal of past trends, emerging market (EM) assets are rallying across asset classes in 2025 — defying both the global macro gloom and the shadow of US tariff policy. By the Numbers: JPMorgan EM Local Bond Index: +10% YTD MSCI EM Equity Index: +10% MSCI World (Developed Markets): +4.8% EM bonds in global AUM: Rising from a low 5% share This rotation reflects a clear diversification trend away from dollar assets, fueled by erratic US policymaking, record federal debt, and a weakening dollar. The Treasury-specific risk premium is rising — and EMs are absorbing the flow. Drivers of the Rally: Dollar weakness: Eases FX pressure, gives central banks room to cut. Inflation-adjusted yields in EMs at 20-year highs, making debt highly attractive. Declining fiscal risks in EMs contrast with ballooning G7 debt burdens. China and South Korea lead equity optimism with innovation themes and policy clarity. “Even small inflows are having disproportionately large effects.” — Goldman Sachs’ Kevin Daly Risks and Rotation: Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East did not dent EM flows — a clear sign of confidence in regional resilience. Oil prices falling reduced tail risks for EM energy importers like India and South Korea. Still, EM equity outflows in Q1 were sizable (–$22bn), only partially reversed in May–June (+$11bn net). Practical Strategy for Investors: Local currency bonds in Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia — rich yields, FX tailwinds. Tech-heavy equity plays in China and Taiwan — exposure to global AI boom. EM corporates still lag — cautious positioning advised due to higher default risk. What to Watch: Further EM policy easing, especially in Asia, will support equities. US yield volatility may occasionally disrupt flows, but the narrative has shifted. Multi-asset portfolios should consider overweighting EM exposure tactically in H2 2025. 8. Shell, Sovereign Risk, and the Oil Sector Outlook: BP Takeover Denied, Sector Under Pressure Shell’s explicit denial of takeover talks with BP, despite media speculation, offers clarity but also raises key strategic questions for the European energy sector. The sector continues to grapple with sluggish price action, mounting decarbonization pressures, and a renewed focus on capital discipline. Key Takeaways: Shell stated it had “no intention” of acquiring BP and had not been in talks, invoking a six-month standstill period under UK takeover law. BP shares rose 1.3%, Shell +0.5%, largely a relief rally and not based on synergies. This quells short-term merger speculation, but it underscores the pressure on oil majors from activist investors (e.g., Elliott’s 5% stake in BP) demanding deeper cuts, higher returns, and optionality in energy transition strategy. “Shell has preferred buybacks to acquisitions.” — Wael Sawan, CEO Sector-Wide Implications: BP’s aggressive renewables push has backfired, denting valuation and making it a takeover target. Oil majors are capital-rich but investment-conservative, amid uncertain demand outlook and energy policy volatility. High integration costs and risk of job losses are politically toxic, limiting mega-deal feasibility. Practical Market Interpretation: With Brent crude hovering around $68–$70, oil equities remain valuation-sensitive and vulnerable to dividend cuts or FX shocks. Investors should favor capital-efficient names with strong free cash flow and disciplined buyback programs. Avoid speculative merger plays; instead, track cost reduction execution and decarbonization pace. What to Watch: Further activist pressure on BP and Total to streamline operations. Potential US M&A activity in smaller shale players instead of global giants. Any signs of OPEC+ discord or US SPR use amid volatile demand expectations. 9. New World Development: Hong Kong’s Property Giant Faces Systemic Risk New World Development (NWD), one of Hong Kong’s largest property conglomerates, is undergoing a delicate refinancing operation amid ballooning debt, weak property sales, and a declining tourism-reliant retail economy. The implications ripple across the Asian credit markets, Chinese property sector, and Hong Kong's financial stability. Key Financials: Net debt: HK$124.6bn Refinancing talks: HK$87.5bn in bank loans Interest costs > operating profits in 2H FY2024 Annual loss: HK$20bn, the first in two decades Shares down 22% YTD, market cap ~HK$14bn The developer’s leverage and stalled mainland China expansion expose it to credit market deterioration, at a time when trust in property-linked balance sheets is thin. “It won’t be a question of how much you’re willing to pay — the cover won’t be available.” — Everest CEO Jim Williamson, referring to US casualty insurance but resonant here too. Systemic Concerns: Barclays estimates NWD accounts for 7% of all HK commercial property loans — nearly double Evergrande’s systemic exposure in mainland China. Property defaults or asset fire-sales could cause bank provisioning hikes, spread to retail REITs, and exacerbate deflationary pressures. Mitigating Actions: NWD pledged flagship assets (e.g., Victoria Dockside) as collateral. Actively selling projects at discounts. Chow Tai Fook Enterprises selectively buying assets, indirectly supporting liquidity. However, refusal to engage with bondholders, deferred perpetual interest payments, and a leadership reshuffle have eroded market confidence. Strategic Implications for Investors: Avoid unsecured Chinese real estate debt—bondholder transparency is poor. Favor secured exposure or government-backed REITs tied to stable rental income. Look for HKMA guidance: policymakers are signaling banks to avoid panic provisioning, implying the government will step in to prevent contagion. Broader Macro Read: Reflects fragility of China’s "recovery-lite" property model, where urban development exceeds real demand. HK real estate’s softening is also a proxy for declining mainland tourism, rising capital costs, and shifting investor preferences. 10. Meta’s Copyright Win: Legal Green Light for AI Model Training Meta's recent legal victory over authors suing for unauthorized use of books in AI training marks a critical turning point in the legal framework surrounding AI development. The U.S. District Court ruled that the tech giant’s use of millions of texts to train its LLaMA models constituted “fair use”, delivering a massive tailwind to AI innovation — and to equity investors betting on the sector. Case Summary: Plaintiffs included notable authors like Ta-Nehisi Coates. Meta trained its AI on LibGen-sourced books without permission. Judge Chhabria: Ruled for Meta due to “poor argumentation” by plaintiffs — not because the court inherently favored AI use. “This ruling does not stand for the proposition that Meta’s use of copyrighted materials to train its language models is lawful. It stands only for the proposition that these plaintiffs made the wrong arguments.” — Judge Vince Chhabria Precedent and Practical Impact: Reinforces the fair use doctrine for transformative technologies. Encourages aggressive data utilization strategies by other firms. Raises the bar for future copyright suits, requiring stronger arguments like market harm (e.g., reduced author royalties). Implications for Tech and Equity Markets: AI development costs may fall sharply as legal uncertainty fades. Generative AI leaders (Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI) now face fewer near-term litigation barriers. Paves the way for AI ETF inflows, bolsters AI-leveraged tech indices (e.g., SOXX, QQQ). Equity long positions in semis (NVDA, AMD), cloud (MSFT, GOOGL), and enterprise AI (CRM, ORCL) become even more strategic. Regulatory Outlook: A longer-term battle is likely over “market dilution” claims. Courts may soon have to decide whether AI-generated outputs undermine economic incentives for human creators. Policy frameworks from the EU or US Congress are likely within 12–18 months. Strategic Takeaways for Investors: Increase exposure to AI infrastructure (e.g., Nvidia, Micron, Arista). Maintain vigilance on evolving IP litigation trends — regulatory tone may shift depending on 2025 political outcomes. Avoid over-concentration in companies still facing unresolved copyright or data privacy battles (e.g., Open-source LLMs with gray training data). 11. ETF Innovation: ‘Autocallables’ Go Retail – A Structural Shift in Yield Exposure The launch of the first US-listed ETF tracking autocallable structured products by Calamos Investments, with JPMorgan support, signals a transformative shift in how retail investors access complex income strategies. Once limited to ultra-high-net-worth clients, these derivatives — with yields near 14.7% — are now democratized through a simple ticker trade. What Are Autocallables? Autocallables offer periodic coupons unless a linked index (e.g., S&P 500) falls below a pre-set barrier. If the barrier is breached consistently, investors risk losing principal. They are akin to structured credit instruments but are tied to equity indices, not borrowers. Triggered by market declines. Maturity: typically 3 years, quarterly checks. Final protection barrier: ~60% of starting level — breach = principal loss. ETF will hold 52+ autocallables diversified by issuance date. Investment Mechanics: Calamos Autocallable Income ETF (CAIY) charges 0.74% annual fee — above the average for US derivative-income ETFs (0.51%). It’s part of a wider trend: structured outcome ETFs have exploded from $3.5bn in 2019 → $179bn today (Morningstar). Mimics yield exposure of high-yield bonds, but linked to equity volatility. Analyst Commentary: Ben Johnson, Morningstar: “ETFs are taking share from all financial products — not just mutual funds, but also from bespoke structured notes.” Elisabeth Kashner, FactSet: warned of misunderstanding risks: “Advisers will struggle to explain these. If markets fall, protection and yield disappear.” Practical Implications: Retail investors gain access to high-yielding structured credit proxies. If adopted at scale, this could divert flows from traditional high-yield bonds and annuities. Volatility derivatives embedded in autocallables will impact options markets and hedging strategies. Risk Outlook: In a sharp downturn, coupon stops and capital protection collapses — potentially leading to double-digit losses. These ETFs may suffer sudden illiquidity if linked indices breach multiple trigger levels at once. Systemic Considerations: Broad adoption of these ETFs could amplify equity downside during sharp corrections — as dealers hedge risk via S&P futures. Scenario: A systemic correction triggers autocallable barrier breaches, prompting delta-hedging cascades → market destabilization. Investor Strategy: Use as non-core, tactical exposure for income in low-volatility environments. Monitor S&P drawdowns and ETF option volumes for stress signals. Avoid relying on these instruments for downside protection in portfolios targeting retirement stability. 12. Wall Street Outlook: Dollar Slide, Powell Speculation, and Inflation Signaling Markets steadied this week as geopolitical tensions cooled with the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but underlying stress in key asset classes persists — particularly in foreign exchange and rate-sensitive sectors. Traders are recalibrating for what could be a pivot in US monetary policy, as political noise intensifies over Fed leadership and dollar weakness accelerates. Dollar Pressure Deepens: The US Dollar Index slid to a three-year low, falling 0.5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump may replace Fed Chair Jay Powell earlier than expected. The euro surged to $1.1710, its strongest level since September 2021. “We suspect that some of this narrative is seeping into perceptions,” said Macquarie’s Thierry Wizman, pointing to speculation over Fed independence. This decline is especially concerning given the rebound in Treasury yields, which would traditionally support the greenback. Instead, we are witnessing a breakdown in classic correlations, as political interference becomes a dominant narrative. Powell’s Job and Policy Path: The idea of a “shadow chair” to pressure the Fed into rate cuts has unnerved institutional allocators. The White House denied imminent changes but confirmed the president’s “right to change his mind.” This raises risk premiums around Fed credibility, especially with inflation still a threat and growth signals weakening. Any leadership uncertainty at the Fed historically results in higher long-end yields due to perceived policy drift or political bias. Safe Havens and Gold Dynamics: Gold fell 0.2% to $3,324/oz, losing some haven allure post-ceasefire. Continued outflows are expected unless inflation data surprises to the upside or Fed intervention appears politically constrained. Equity Markets: S&P 500 closed just under its all-time high, up 0.6%. Risk-on sentiment is heavily liquidity-driven, with AI optimism (led by Nvidia) adding a secondary tailwind. Oil and Inflation: Brent crude rebounded to $68.49/bbl, up 1.2%, despite subdued supply risk. Inflation-linked assets remain moderately priced, but any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz or further US-China escalation could reignite tail-risk pricing. Practical Implications: Dollar weakness can spur a rotation into EM equities, gold, and real assets. Investors should brace for increased FX volatility and repricing of global rate differentials. Portfolios with high USD exposure may benefit from increased geographical diversification. TIPS and short-duration Treasuries become more attractive as stagflation hedges in case Powell is replaced with a dovish successor.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
GRAB — Breakout Confirmation and Strong Upside PotentialGrab Holdings (GRAB) is currently forming a promising technical setup supported by a breakout from long-term consolidation. After printing a strong low and breaking out of a multi-year range, the price action confirms a bullish reversal with clear structure. Technical Analysis – Trendline breakout and bullish market structure shift – Price is consolidating above the breakout level, forming a continuation zone – Valid entries: market execution above $4.50 or limit orders near $4.00 support – First profit target: $6.60 (around 40% growth) – Second target: $10.15 (over 100% from entry) The setup suggests increasing bullish momentum. A clean consolidation above previous resistance strengthens the case for a breakout continuation toward $6.60 and potentially $10.15. Fundamental Backdrop Grab is a Southeast Asian tech leader operating across ride-hailing, food delivery, and digital payments. The company continues to reduce losses, improve margins, and expand its fintech arm. With rising digital adoption in the region and a shift toward profitability, GRAB is gaining investor attention. Its most recent earnings report showed improving revenue trends and narrowing net losses — a strong signal of long-term sustainability. Conclusion Grab Holdings presents a well-aligned opportunity from both a technical and fundamental perspective. With a clear structure, breakout confirmation, and fundamental turnaround, this setup fits both swing and midterm investment strategies. Risk management is still key — stops should be placed below consolidation lows or key structure levels.
NASDAQ:GRABLong
by InvestWorld_777
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NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by Thief_Trader
Trump Threatens Sánchez Over Defense Spending ShortfallTrump Warns of Trade Reprisals Against Spain for Refusing NATO's 5% Target: Direct Impact on the IBEX 35 By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The recent NATO summit in The Hague concluded with an ambitious proposal: raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. However, Spain distanced itself from the consensus, triggering a diplomatic storm led by former U.S. President Donald Trump. His remarks have already begun rippling through financial markets — especially the IBEX 35. Sánchez Rejects 5% Target, Cites "Realism" During the summit, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez succeeded in including a clause allowing Spain to stick to its current commitment of 2.1% of GDP for military spending. In his address, Sánchez argued that increasing it to 5% would jeopardize essential public services like healthcare and education, warning against “budgetary fetishism” in foreign policy. "Security isn’t measured solely in percentages. We will defend fiscal sovereignty and the welfare state," Sánchez stated from The Hague. Trump Launches Verbal Offensive Against Spain The Spanish leader’s comments were swiftly met with criticism from across the Atlantic. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Donald Trump labeled Spain “a problem for NATO” and warned the country would “pay double” in future trade deals with the U.S. for refusing to meet the new defense spending target. "Spain is freeloading off its allies. If they won’t pay, they shouldn’t expect our protection," Trump said, hinting at potential tariffs on Spanish products and exclusion from preferential terms in bilateral trade negotiations. IBEX 35 Reacts: Declines in Export-Sensitive Companies Technically, the IBEX 35 is in a consolidation phase, with immediate support at 13,698 points and key resistance near recent highs. Indicators like the RSI, now in neutral territory, and a bearish MACD suggest caution, as a breach of support could trigger a deeper correction. While the broader trend remains bullish, the control point lies around 13,300 — an area that previously served as an accumulation zone and breakout level — which the market may revisit before resuming its upward trajectory. Investor anxiety was evident in Madrid’s trading floor: the IBEX 35 closed Thursday down 0.85%, weighed by internationally exposed firms such as Naturgy, Cellnex, and Grifols, which fell as much as 3.5%. The index also formed a low-volume doji candle — a technical signal that may precede a pullback. In contrast, stocks like Acciona Energía and IAG, either less reliant on the U.S. or more diversified, managed modest gains. This week, the index has shown signs of fatigue after peaking at annual highs of 14,368 points in late May. It opened today around 13,876. With the RSI at 48% and a bearish MACD, the IBEX remains in consolidation. The 13,300 area continues to be a key control zone, potentially acting as a springboard should sentiment improve. Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty: Spain’s New Risk Factor Trump’s combative tone introduces a fresh layer of uncertainty into an already tense global backdrop of trade frictions and evolving security strategies. His threat of trade reprisals places strategic sectors of the Spanish economy — such as agri-food and industrial exports — in a vulnerable position. Domestic politics complicate the picture further: internal criticism from the opposition and a minority government reduce Spain’s ability to respond decisively to external pressure. Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation or Correction? From a technical standpoint, the IBEX remains in consolidation with key support at 13,750. A break below could deepen the correction, while any easing of geopolitical tensions might pave the way for a retest of annual highs. Conclusion: Spain’s refusal to adopt NATO’s 5% defense spending goal has sparked a diplomatic rift with the United States, already reflected in financial markets. Trump’s threats are not merely rhetorical — if they materialize into trade barriers, the economic consequences for Spain could be significant. The IBEX 35, as a barometer of investor sentiment, will remain closely tied to this unfolding story. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35Short
by ActivTrades