$btc short thx eric trumpGuys, I have some bad news.
You only remembered Eric's post about buying CRYPTOCAP:ETH - it's down 33% since then
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is only down 17%. I think we're in trouble
Fundamental Analysis
Gold swing trade with buy and sell levelsThis week we are looking to sell Gold down to previous resistance which aligns with Fibonacci 0.382 level for a sell total pips of 309.
When we reach our take profit we will go back into a buy at 2994 and a take profit target of 3053 for an additional pip count of 588 pips.
Trade idea is based on higher time frame and uses trend lines as well as support and resistance and Fibonacci levels.
With these type of trades expect to go into some drawdown that's why I recommend using small lots and securing profit along the way .
Check out my weekly gold forecast with both buy and sell entries posted below.
Gold weekly forecast with buy and sell levelsGold weekly forecast with both buy and sell entries.
Friday Gold sold off from 2334 all the way to 2300 for a drop of 334 pips before retracing up to where we are now at 3024.
What can we expect for the coming week ?.
My plan is as follows.
For a buy I would look at entering at 3032 expecting first resistance (marked in red on chart ) to be 3038 to 3040 area.
If we break these then next target would be 3048 to 3052 (200 pip from entry) this is high resistance level , if gold continues to be bullish expect 3078 to be the next area.
For a sell I would enter at 3018 expecting 3010 to 3008 as first support, next level is 3000 to 2998 and if broken we can expect gold to fall to 2880 and 2840 levels.
As always wait for levels, take profit along the way and don't over leverage .
Ill update this as the week goes on.
Check out my other trade idea for a gold swing trade below.
Trade safe
Strong Momentum and Price Performance $AEMAnalysis of NYSE:AEM Stock Performance
1. Strong Momentum and Price Performance NYSE:AEM exhibits strong momentum characteristics, with the stock price trading above short, medium, and long-term moving averages. Additionally, it has achieved a new 52-week high today, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) also suggests price strength, reinforcing the stock’s positive momentum.
2. Consistent Outperformance Against the Industry NYSE:AEM has consistently outperformed its industry peers over various timeframes, including 1 week, 3 months, 1 year, and even 10 years. This long-term relative strength makes it an attractive investment within its sector.
3. Growth and Profitability Indicators
The company has shown good quarterly growth in its recent financial results.
Annual profit growth has been higher than the sector’s profit growth.
Net profit growth has been robust, aligning with significant gains in share price.
Revenue has increased consistently every quarter for the past 4 quarters, reflecting strong business expansion.
The company has strong cash-generating ability, with operating cash flow improving over the last two years.
4. Valuation Metrics and Financial Strength
The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is lower than the industry average, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers.
The PEG ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth) is lower than the industry PEG, indicating that the stock offers a good balance of price and growth potential.
Book value per share has been improving for the last two years, a positive indicator of financial health.
The company maintains low debt levels, reducing financial risk and ensuring sustainability.
5. Technical and Volume-Based Strength
Stocks near 52-week high with significant volumes indicate continued buying interest.
Volume shockers suggest that the stock has experienced unusual trading activity, which may indicate accumulation by institutional investors.
High momentum scores, with technical indicators above 50, reinforce the stock’s strong trend.
Conclusion NYSE:AEM is a fundamentally strong stock with a combination of growth, profitability, and strong momentum indicators. The stock’s consistent outperformance relative to its industry, low valuation metrics, rising cash flow, and strong financial health make it an attractive investment. Given its technical strength and fundamental resilience, NYSE:AEM appears well-positioned for further upside in the near to medium term.
The "Good" Crypto Narrative Is OverIt's been a while since I've done a bit of a deep-dive on this market and why I don't believe it'll sustain a significantly higher value in the future. I no longer have the stamina to write a long-winded post. It's exhausting at this point, and I don't need to reiterate it. Instead, I'll summarize recent developments and their impact on the crypto narrative.
1) The TOTAL crypto market cap currently rests below the all-time high from 2021. This is even including stablecoins. There is $144B worth of USDT currently in circulation. In 2021, that number was $80B. Meanwhile, stock indexes and several individual stocks are significantly up from their last peaks. From a "store of value" standpoint, this doesn't look great, particularly factoring in inflation. Adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin itself is sitting below its inflation-adjusted 2021 all-time high, which is around $84K.
2) Bitcoin active addresses are back to 2017 levels and BELOW the levels from even the previous bear market! This implies that "authentic" adoption has stagnated and begun a decline. studio.glassnode.com
3) In the eyes of a growing number of investors, Trump and Elon's crypto push has only solidified the crypto market as a joke and as a global symbol of greed and corruption.
4) Gold has far outpaced Bitcoin as a store of value during this recent period of turbulence, disproving Bitcoin as a possible safe haven. Here is the Bitcoin/Gold chart for reference:
5) Still, if cryptocurrencies completely ceased to exist, there would be no net-negative effect on the world. In fact, it may be a net-positive. Unless this suddenly changes, crypto does not have any real world value. You cannot say this about most MIL:1T + markets: If most major companies and resources ceased to exist, we'd see a very significant (mostly negative) impact on our daily lives, almost immediately.
In summary, I don't think people will be coming in droves to invest in this market. I think that ship has sailed. The opportunity for it to prove itself has waned, and it has been overtaken by largely bad actors. If anything, I think people are more likely to be forced to buy it than enter the market willingly.
From a technical standpoint, a breakdown from the big uptrend channel in the chart above would likely confirm that the top is in.
---------------------------------------------
Beware, a crypto narrative still exists, but it's only the one fed to us by those in power. It will be important not to fall for it. I worry that people will be forced to own cryptocurrencies, at the expense of their freedom. And even in a situation where crypto prices continue to increase, it is unlikely to be seen positively.
Once we graduate from these strange and confusing times, rife with dissociation, monopolies, grift, and power consolidation, it seems more likely that humanity will look at crypto as part of an uncomfortable past. If we never move on to more optimistic times, and things continue to become more dystopian, well, then that would be a time where crypto adopters can say, "hey, we were right!" But...at what cost?
Regardless, it will always be possible to profit from the volatility, hence my attempts at trading a little recently, with a focus on Litecoin. So, trading opportunities will present themselves, which will keep at least some people interested in this market. I think it is unlikely to be enough liquidity to sustain significant new all-time highs.
Here is my last big post, where I detailed more reasoning - this was prior to the Bitcoin ETF's:
And here is a recent post, where I describe how my own thoughts about the market evolved, from when I first entered in 2017 to the present:
As always, this represents only my opinion, and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. There are many other opinions out there. It is your responsibility to develop critical thinking.
Thanks for reading as always!
-Victor Cobra
5 Key Points for Blockchain Future5 Key Points for Blockchain Future 【old articles published on 2022】
During 2020-2022, the blockchain industry experienced extremely rapid changes. From 2019 to the first half of 2020, there were almost no interesting primary projects and new ideas, until Compound directly drove the Defi boom, then followed by DEX, NFT, Metaverse, GameFi, and the upsurge of entrepreneurship.
However, all industries of life follow the law of nature and the law of harmony between Yin and Yang. When the tide rises, the tide will ebb.
The last wave of the X to Earn boom will be driven by StepN in 2022, when the "grand debut" of the LUNA crash, the top 3 in the industry, directly cools down the overheated market just like the arrival of the moon at night. Combined with the global supply-side imbalances caused by the Fed's interest rate hike strategy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market has experienced extreme volatility and uncertainty.
The sudden breakup of two supposedly friendly exchanges, Binance and FTX, is an indirect reminder that we are living in a period of extreme instability and diversification. The black swan and the white swan are more indistinguishable.
There are great opportunities and uncertainties in the future. In order to better embrace the new rhythm, we may pay attention to the following five points:
(The Chinese version was published at Nov, if you like reading Chinese, you can find that version)
1. The blockchain world will expand larger ecosystems and exchanges, but not need as many.
From the historical trend, everything is going to be unified after merger and elimination, and it is the same in the field of blockchain.
Now, the ecology of the large platform of the layer 1 public chain has gradually entered the white-hot stage of the competition. With the test of the bear market, it is inevitable that more than one LUNA and FTX will leave and be eliminated from the projects and exchanges we are familiar with. BINANCE:LUNAUSDT BYBIT:FTTUSDT
Of course, the fierce competition is also the alchemist of high-quality ecology, to test who can stabilize the internal situation to grasp the historical trend and become the next chain on the world leader.
Therefore, risk avoidance and allocation should be done as early as possible. Focus on projects with long-term value and stay away from projects with lip service and over-the-top bragging.
2. Conduct spiritual enrichment exercises as early as possible to meet the alternative fantasy world brought by the metaverse and Virtual age and effectively deal with deeper loneliness.
The continuous progress of science and technology often brings more convenient living conditions and a more lonely spiritual world. With quick access to information, cool virtual effects, and big trends in VR and AR, we can basically see the future moving towards movies like and .
According to the law of conservation of the universe, spiritual energy must also be conserved. For a simple example, when technology was not developed in the 1980s and 1990s, the friends who asked you to go downstairs to play every day, and the children born after the 2000s and 2010s basically play with iPad in their childhood. The latter has significantly more communication online, while the former has more face-to-face offline, and this sense of loneliness and distance will only get bigger as the tech trend flows.
However, many post-00s suffer from depression and other mental diseases at an early age. The premature bombardment of technology and information is more likely to destroy people's spirits before the barriers and defensive lines of values are built. In the high-octane world of fintech, it's even more complicated, with an extra layer of Money that magnifies its power by at least 2.5 times.
Therefore, as early as possible to carry out the psychological construction of the spiritual level, we can avoid inadaptation suffering as early as possible when the tide of The Times comes. A small number of people are eliminated by competition, and most of them are eliminated by The Times ( we can start with some classic books).
3. Most projects said that they have Tech DNA but actually not Tech, Blockchain will be everywhere
Real Tech projects tend to survive bear markets. Because they only need computers and shelter, they can continue to develop the project and do not need to spend a lot of money to hire too many expensive technical personnel. (Like Airbnb's early stage)
This is important for the early and mid-term development of a project, and it is also crucial for engineers to resist the temptation of blockchain technology to make it easier when they are suddenly faced with the temptation of huge financing. Therefore, sometimes, projects under the guise of technology and slogan are often more deceiving than pyramid projects, because people will be CPUed.
But one thing is certain, blockchain technology will be everywhere in the next five years, and the closest and fastest popularization should be: Historical relics NFT, ticketing systems (such as Ant Financial ticketing application, World Cup ticketing application), authentication systems (property ownership certificate, education certificate, birth certificate, etc.) and object traceability (various blockchain applications in milk, wine, luxury goods), the popularity of asset tokenization (apartment ownership, company tokenization, etc.), And countries' recognition of BTC as a currency outside the asset.
Let ourselves catch up with the trend of The Times as soon as possible, in order to catch the last train more effectively. Because it's already branching out.
4. People understand hot water hurts hands. But in the face of hot trends and hot spots, we often flock to and forget the risk.
What is very easy to understand in our daily lives is often reversed when applied to the same things in other areas.
For example, the simplest way to avoid hot water is because hot water has our physical nervous system acting as a force to protect the stress response, and can also avoid excessive injury. But the market contains the risk of hot topics, our spirit is often paralyzed in the temptation of interests, thus ultimately causing regrets and loss of money.
Therefore, in the future virtual and technological era, there will be more sugar-coating bombardment, so our judgment to keep relatively objective has become a very important ability. So that you can ride on the hot trend, but also have a protection system to prevent yourself from injury.
This is something that someone who is very good at following hot spots has been teaching us. Each time, he walked in with hot topics, fool the investors, and walked away. The most obvious of these is NFT, GameFi's early hype.
5. Value will not change its core nature as times change. But it is a harder test of self-choice judgment and self-recognition ability.
With the development of The Times and technology, they will become more and more intertwined with each other. Once a very simple business model, it may become more relevant after the integration of blockchain, VR, AR, and other technologies. But the core is still the same, just as a normal man, no matter how fancy he is, no matter how coquettish he is, his physical structure is also male (except for surgery).
But the test of judgment and cognitive ability is more demanding, and complex at the same time, there are more opportunities. Because there are likely to be more Hamlets for the same enterprise or project, it is particularly important to keep updating our learning pool. At the same time, the influence of individuals like KOL on society will be further enhanced
Summary:
2022 is a transitional year before a new era, and in the next 20-30 years, there is a high probability that we will enter a more technological phase in which humans are not separated. In this stage, in my opinion, the most critical point is the second of the five points.
Material and technological progress may lead to spiritual regression, but the good news is that our cultural foundation is deep enough. If you can understand Traditional Chinese, it will be a much more spiritual gem. Enough to fill our hearts and make us fully ready for the new world.
Blockchain technology, whether public chain, private chain, or alliance chain, or sidechain is a big trend in technology popularization. It won't die even though some people hold negative views on it, but won't create gods because of some pyramid.
For an ordinary person like us, the best way is to keep learning to enrich ourselves, and keep calm at all times, and stay away from the complicated and mixed-up areas of special strategies.
This article has no financial advice or any guidance content
Nat Gas Report 3/29/25: Can you shoulder the shoulder?
Well, after much fanfare it is finally here! No, not the SSW event, not the Liberation Day (Trump’s April Tariffs), but the shoulder season! That important time of the year for energy traders to watch the price of NG drop faster than Trump’s current approval ratings! The cyclical trade in energy warrants a movement of funds this time of the year to Crude oil, then eventually Gasoline. As discussed, a few weeks ago this constant movement in energy trades keeps the asset allocations inline with seasonal trends in energy usage and the funds fat and happy. But this year we have the ultimate monkey in the works, true market dynamics!
Although with the upcoming Liberation Day tariffs starting this coming Wednesday, 4/2/25, the market once again is on edge with the unknown unknowns! As the broad equity market has sold off this quarter, we have seen a movement into commodities, especially NG (sorry Gold bugs!). The underlying weakness in global oil demand, and the inability for oil producing nations and majors to temper supply has led to a glut in worldwide crude stockpiling. Yesterday’s Crude Oil COT report showed commercials with a net short position of -208,888 (an increase in short positions by 3,580 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +197,061. This is not a common seasonal response in the Oil markets. Normally the December to May timeframe is a season of oil accumulation by major traders and the petro industry. This demand is not without purpose; it marks the onset of preparations for the impending summer driving season. Refiners embark on a strategic accumulation of crude oil inventory for gasoline production, laying the groundwork for oil price increases in the months ahead. But with softness in the overall global markets, downward revisions in GDP, Trump tariff uncertainty, and the big electrification to the transportation sector. There is a bearish undertone to the global oil and gasoline market this year. Remember what was discussed. The global nature of institutional energy traders is to trade crude in the spring (as NG sells off), gasoline in the summer (as oil sells off), NG in the fall (as diesel sells off), and diesel/heating oil in the winter (as gasoline sells off). This round robing of trades allows the savvy trader to expect entry and exit points, or to determine the overall direction of seasonal trends. But throw that out this year! The past few months NG and Oil have been trading inversely with each other, almost to the dollar!
So, that leaves us with a tremendous amount of allocated worldwide capital in the one energy trade left. NG! But, not without merit! Natural Gas has a tremendous amount of underlying fundamental support. Lower than normal storage (currently 6.5% below 5-yer average), increasing power generation demand, increasing exports via pipeline to Mexico, increasing LNG export (currently hit a record at 16.7 BCF/d this week and expected to hit 18 BCF/d next month), and stagnant production (NG rig count down 9% y/y, oil down 4.5% y/y). The producers have finally understood that producing too much NG will probably affect the price in a negative way. Last week’s energy conference in Houston, TX had one general theme from all the energy majors. Supply restraint/discipline and an increase in infrastructure. There must have been some concerted effort, because the catch phrase all week was not “Drill baby Drill” but “Build baby Build” The discussion was that Trump’s lowering of barriers for pipeline construction and LNG export facilities is what is going to give them a reason to drill. But, for the time being they need takeaway capacity. They will continue to keep rigs out of the field until that happens. Imports from Canada are at a 2-year low, due to the increase in heating demand in Canada, due to the SSW event taking hold up north. Increasing demand, stagnant production = higher prices!
Weather related demand has decreased with the unusually warm March. But the SSW event is now affecting Canada. If not for the main Pacific Teleconnection, the EPO, this cold bottled up in Canada would have brought seasonal temperature to the US. But!!!!!!! Now the EPO(negative) Teleconnection is aligning with the SSW event and the models over the past week have been printing colder. I expect the month of April to end up below average. Which could possibly lead to one, maybe to more storage withdrawals, outside the withdrawal season. As of earlier this week, April is now projected to end the storage deficit created during the withdrawal season. But if we can head into the month of May with a continued deficit, we can expect elevated prices for the summer strip. The summer forecasts are currently coming out, which is showing dry and hot conditions from the Rockies west to the Mississippi River. The current storage deficit in the South Central region (-10.5%) and the Midwest (-16.2%), will be the main driver for price appreciation due to weather related issues. Years that had a SSW event in the months of March and April, statistically have very hot May and June months that follow. This kick start to the summer cooling season is another reason for the predicted elevated prices this summer. This is not 2024! Do not expect for historic low process to return, bar a pandemic or a worldwide global recession. There will be price volatility, but not a complete dropping of the floor price.
Near term pricing: Ever since moving above the 100D SMA back at the end of December the 50D SMA has held up wonderfully as support during last four months. Since Tuesday the 50D SMA has continued to hold, except for a brief 12 hour period, but the price showed bullish support by retracing, touching and bouncing back off. The weekly low bounced off the lower SD of the BB. This another bullish conformation. The weekly low dropped below the 38.2% fib level and reclaimed upward momentum, another bullish sign, only to move up past the 50% fib level. The psychological 4000 level, another bullish indicator. When technical and fundamentals align, we should pay close attention and listen!
I am watching 4170, 4252, and 4316 for my immediate term resistance levels. If 4316 is broken, the upper BB SD and the 78.6% swing retracement level 4570 is next. For support, 3953, 3854, 3729. If there is a break below the 3729 then the 23.6% swing retracement level at 3560 would be up next. I am of the belief that the market is expected to travel higher. But there are many reasons for continued range bound days. So, I will be setting these levels to range trade until I see an indication for otherwise.
Keep it Burning!
BTC Proyection April 2025Is just necessary the price to reach those levels, to finally get btc in a good price and attractive for investors, all the way up to the new highs.
Let me see your comments.
#GBPUSD: Risk Entry Vs Safe Entry, Which One Would You Chose? The GBPUSD currency pair presents two promising opportunities for entry, potentially generating gains exceeding 500 pips. However, entering these markets carries a substantial risk of stop-loss hunting during the commencement of the week. Conversely, adopting a safe entry strategy offers a favourable chance for a bullish position.
We encourage you to share your thoughts and feedback on our ideas. ❤️🚀
Team Setupsfx_
NVO Monthly RSI below 40 means trouble for BearsI analysed when monthly RSI of NVO has fallen below 40, which it had in 3 cases this century. When buying at that level, it lead to significant returns of at least 500% until the next top after which it dropped to that level again.
NQ Swing Long Trade idea based on supply and demand, intermarket analysis, COT positioning and cross market valuation. Following a structured approach with clear entry, risk management, and confluence factors.
Convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17Yo traders -
Let’s map out a convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17, 2025 $75 Call option — currently trading at $1.00, with the stock at $65.97 and only 18 days to expiry.
🔍 Step-by-Step Breakdown:
🧠 1. Basic Structure
You’re buying the LOAR Apr17 $75 call at $1.00.
This is a deep OTM bet (~13.7% above current price).
You’re betting on a short-term move to $75+, meaning volatility spike or news catalyst.
⚙️ 2. Convexity Setup
Convexity means:
Small risk, asymmetric reward
If LOAR stays flat or dips → you lose $1 per contract
If LOAR rips to $80+ → this option could return 5x to 10x+
LOAR Price at Expiry Option Intrinsic Value Profit/Loss
$66 (flat) $0 -$1.00
$70 $0 -$1.00
$75 (strike) $0 -$1.00
$77 $2.00 +$1.00
$80 $5.00 +$4.00 (5x)
$85 $10.00 +$9.00 (9x)
🧾 3. Chart + Sentiment Setup
Looking at the TradingView chart:
Price Action:
LOAR is basing around $66 after a steep downtrend — potential reversal pattern
Volume is light, but some buy pressure is visible
MACD:
Appears to be flattening and potentially crossing bullish
RSI:
~40s: Oversold-to-neutral zone. Could support upward bounce.
Earnings coming up (E icon):
Strong potential for a catalyst move
This setup enhances convexity, because earnings can produce gap moves that DOTM options profit from disproportionately.
🔮 4. Convexity Scenario Thesis (Narrative)
"LOAR has pulled back hard and is showing signs of base-building. Earnings are in 2–3 weeks. If guidance surprises to the upside — or macro tailwinds hit the sector — a short squeeze or re-rating toward $75–80 could occur. I’m risking $1 per contract for a shot at $5–10. If it doesn’t move, I accept the full loss."
This is a classic event-driven convexity play.
⚠️ 5. Risks & Considerations
Time decay is brutal: With only 18 days left, theta decay accelerates daily
IV Crush post-earnings could hurt even if the stock moves
You need a fast, strong move, ideally before or at earnings
Position sizing is critical: This is a "lottery ticket" — don’t over-allocate
✅ 6. Ideal for Your Strategy If:
You're making many small bets like this across tickers/catalysts
You’re not trying to be “right” often, but “big” occasionally
You have capital discipline and uncorrelated base assets
🧮 Position Size:
Option price = $1.00 per contract
You buy 100 contracts of the $75 call
Total risk = $100
Each $1.00 move above $75 = $100 profit per $1, since 100 contracts × 100 shares/contract = 10,000 shares exposure
📈 Upside Payoff Table
LOAR Price at Expiry Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100
$65–$74.99 $0.00 $0 -$100 -100%
$76 $1.00 $1 × 10,000 = $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900%
$77 $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900%
$80 $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900%
$85 $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900%
$90 $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900%
$100 $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900%
🧠 Interpretation
Max Loss: $100 (fixed, regardless of LOAR's move down or sideways)
Breakeven at Expiry: LOAR must hit $76.00
10x return if LOAR trades just $1 above strike
Massive asymmetry — you risk $100 for a shot at $10k–250k if LOAR rips on earnings or news.
📌 Real-World Considerations:
You might exit early if the option spikes in value before expiry (e.g., stock runs to $72 with 5 days left).
Liquidity may limit large size fills.
Volatility matters: IV spike pre-earnings or a big gap post-earnings increases your chance of profit.
📊 Convex Payoff Table for LOAR Apr17 $75 Call (100 Contracts, $100 Risk)
LOAR Price at Expiry % Move from $65.97 Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100
$65–$74.99 0% to +13.6% $0.00 $0 -$100 -100%
$76 +15.2% $1.00 $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900%
$77 +17.0% $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900%
$80 +21.3% $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900%
$85 +28.9% $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900%
$90 +36.4% $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900%
$100 +51.6% $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900%
🧠 Takeaway:
Even a 15% move turns your $100 into $10,000 — this is why convex trades are so powerful.
But the trade-off is probability: the odds of a 15–50%+ move in 18 days are low, which is why risk is capped and position sizing matters.
JetBlue Airways (JBLU) – Technical Analysis 1WJetBlue shares have broken a key weekly trendline, reinforcing a bearish outlook. After breaking support at $5.21, the price is heading toward $4.52 and potentially $3.41.
Technical indicators confirm the weakness: RSI shows declining momentum, MACD signals a bearish crossover, and EMA 50/200 indicate sustained selling pressure.
Fundamentally, the airline sector faces macroeconomic instability, rising Fed rates, and volatile fuel prices. A close below $5.21 will confirm the downtrend, targeting $4.52 and $3.41, while a recovery above $6.44 could signal a potential rebound.
Whale Alert on $IMX!Whales are quietly stacking SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:IMX tokens despite recent price dips, accumulating over 4.55M tokens in the last 3 months. The recent closure of the SEC investigation into Immutable significantly clears regulatory uncertainty, boosting institutional interest. 🚀
📌 Key Insights:
Significant whale accumulation indicating bullish sentiment.
End of SEC probe enhances institutional attractiveness.
Current price dip ($0.58) may be an ideal entry point.
🎯 Trading Plan:
Entry at current support levels ($0.55–0.58).
Mid-term target set at $0.75–0.90 (2–3 months horizon).
Set stop-loss slightly below $0.50 to manage risk.
Keep eyes open for new Immutable partnerships and whale on-chain activity as key bullish indicators.
CHF/USD Weekly Forecast: Falling Wedge Breakout Towards TargetMarket Overview: Bullish Reversal in CHF/USD
The Swiss Franc (CHF) / U.S. Dollar (USD) currency pair has recently broken out of a Falling Wedge pattern, signaling a bullish trend reversal. This breakout is significant as it suggests the end of a prolonged downtrend and the beginning of a new upward momentum. Traders who capitalize on this pattern could benefit from potential long opportunities.
This analysis will cover the chart pattern, key levels, trading setup, risk management, and market sentiment, providing a comprehensive professional breakdown of the CHF/USD price action.
1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge – Bullish Breakout
A Falling Wedge is a well-known bullish reversal pattern that forms when price action creates lower highs and lower lows, but the slope of the highs is steeper than the lows. This leads to a narrowing structure that suggests sellers are losing strength, paving the way for a bullish breakout.
Pattern Characteristics:
✔ Prior Downtrend: The CHF/USD pair was in a sustained bearish trend before forming the wedge.
✔ Converging Trendlines: Price action squeezed into a wedge formation, showing decreasing volatility.
✔ Breakout Confirmation: The price successfully broke above the wedge resistance, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
✔ Retest Possibility: Price may revisit the breakout zone before continuing its uptrend.
A breakout from a falling wedge typically leads to a sharp bullish rally, making this a high-probability trading opportunity.
2. Key Technical Levels: Support & Resistance
Support Zones (Buying Interest):
🔵 1.0835 – 1.1000: This zone has acted as strong support where buyers stepped in aggressively.
🔵 1.1071 – 1.1095: A short-term support level that aligns with recent price action, making it a critical stop-loss area.
Resistance Zones (Profit Targets):
🔴 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance): Price has struggled at this level previously, making it the first target for a bullish move.
🔴 1.1600 (Major Resistance): If the uptrend continues, this level will act as the next major challenge.
🔴 1.1909 (Extended Target): A long-term resistance level where price has historically reversed.
3. Trading Strategy & Entry Setup
Now that we have identified the breakout and key levels, let’s design a strategic trading plan.
📌 Entry Points for Long Trades:
✅ Aggressive Entry: Buy at the current price after the breakout, expecting continuation.
✅ Conservative Entry: Wait for a retest of the wedge breakout zone or support near 1.1071 – 1.1095 before entering long.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management):
❌ Stop below 1.1071: This level is a strong support area, and a break below it may invalidate the bullish setup.
❌ Alternative Stop below 1.1000: A safer option for long-term traders to avoid stop-hunting.
📌 Take-Profit Levels:
🎯 Target 1: 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance Zone)
🎯 Target 2: 1.1600 (Stronger resistance where partial profits can be booked)
🎯 Target 3 (Extended): 1.1909 (For swing traders holding positions longer)
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio:
A proper Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of at least 1:2 should be followed for efficient trade management. This means:
Risking 50 pips to gain 100 pips (or more) for profitable trading.
4. Market Sentiment & Confirmation Signals
✔ RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Above 50? Bullish confirmation.
Near 70? Overbought zone, potential pullback.
✔ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Bullish Crossover? Strengthens buy signal.
Divergence? Confirms price momentum.
✔ Volume Analysis:
High volume on breakout? Confirms strong buying interest.
Low volume? Beware of false breakout.
✔ Fundamental Factors:
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy: If SNB maintains dovish policies, CHF could weaken, pushing CHF/USD higher.
US Federal Reserve Stance: A strong USD could slow CHF/USD gains.
5. Conclusion & Trading Plan
🔹 Summary of Trade Setup:
✅ Bullish breakout from Falling Wedge – high-probability long trade
✅ Retest of breakout zone may offer better entry
✅ Major support at 1.1000 – 1.1071
✅ Targeting 1.1550 – 1.1909 range
🚀 Final Trading Plan:
📌 Buy CHF/USD above 1.1100 – 1.1150
📌 Stop-loss below 1.1071
📌 Take Profit 1: 1.1550
📌 Take Profit 2: 1.1600
📌 Take Profit 3 (Swing Trade): 1.1909
📢 Pro Tip:
Always confirm breakout volume before entering.
Monitor economic events affecting CHF & USD.
Use proper risk management (1-2% of account per trade).
📊 Final Verdict:
🔥 CHF/USD is in a bullish setup after breaking out from a Falling Wedge. Traders should look for buy opportunities on pullbacks while targeting resistance levels. 🚀
EURJPY Weekly Forecast: Triple Bottom Breakout & Bullish Target Overview of the Chart & Market Structure
The EUR/JPY daily timeframe chart presents a Triple Bottom Pattern, a powerful bullish reversal formation that suggests a potential shift in market sentiment. This pattern occurs when price tests a key support level three times and fails to break lower, indicating strong buying interest at that zone.
Historically, a Triple Bottom leads to a significant trend reversal as sellers lose strength and buyers gain control. If confirmed by a breakout above resistance, this setup could provide a high-probability trading opportunity for swing traders and position traders.
Key Chart Components & Price Action Analysis
1. Triple Bottom Formation
The three bottoms marked on the chart represent repeated failed attempts by sellers to push the price lower:
Bottom 1 (August 2024): The first rejection from the support zone (~155.000) led to a temporary bounce.
Bottom 2 (October 2024): Price retested the same level, but buyers stepped in again, preventing a breakdown.
Bottom 3 (March 2025): The final test of support confirmed a strong accumulation zone, setting the stage for a potential bullish breakout.
In technical analysis, a Triple Bottom is considered a stronger reversal signal than a Double Bottom, as it represents prolonged buying pressure at key levels.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
Support Zone (~155.086): This level has been tested multiple times and remains a solid demand zone, where buyers have consistently entered the market.
Resistance Zone (~166.000): This level represents the neckline of the pattern, which must be breached to confirm a bullish reversal.
Breakout Target (~179.233): If price breaks out above 166.000, the projected target is set at 179.233, based on the height of the Triple Bottom pattern.
Trading Strategy & Entry Plan
1. Entry Point – Waiting for Confirmation
A buy trade should be initiated ONLY after a confirmed breakout above the resistance level (~166.000). Traders should wait for a daily candle close above this level, preferably with high volume, to confirm the breakout.
2. Stop Loss Placement
A stop-loss should be placed below the third bottom (support level) at 155.086 to minimize risk.
This placement ensures that if price invalidates the pattern by moving below the support level, the trade is exited early.
3. Profit Target Calculation
The measured move technique is applied to estimate the target. The height of the pattern (distance from support to resistance) is projected upward from the breakout point.
Target price: 179.233, aligning with historical resistance.
4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio & Position Sizing
The risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) for this setup is favorable, making it an attractive swing trade opportunity.
Traders should adjust position sizes based on risk tolerance, ensuring proper money management principles are applied.
Additional Confirmation Factors
1. Volume Analysis
A breakout with increasing volume will confirm strong bullish momentum.
Weak volume during breakout could indicate a false breakout, requiring caution.
2. RSI & Momentum Indicators
RSI trending above 50 suggests growing bullish strength.
Bullish divergence on RSI or MACD would add further confidence to the trade.
3. Retest of Resistance as Support
Often, after breaking resistance, price retests the breakout level before moving higher.
This could offer a secondary entry opportunity for traders who miss the initial breakout.
Potential Risks & Market Conditions to Watch
False Breakouts – If price fails to sustain above resistance, the pattern could be invalidated.
Macroeconomic Events – Major news events, such as ECB or BOJ policy decisions, could impact EUR/JPY movement.
Geopolitical Uncertainty – Unexpected events may cause volatility and deviation from technical patterns.
Conclusion – High-Probability Bullish Setup
The Triple Bottom Pattern in EUR/JPY is shaping up as a strong bullish reversal setup. If the price successfully breaks above 166.000, a rally toward 179.233 is expected.
📌 Trading Plan Recap:
✅ Entry: Buy above 166.000 (confirmed breakout).
✅ Target: 179.233 (measured move projection).
✅ Stop Loss: 155.086 (below support).
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable for swing traders.
This setup aligns well with technical and price action strategies, making it an attractive trade idea for the upcoming weeks.
From Crypto Winter to Crypto Depression - Trouble for StellarStellar or XLM is in major trouble as it fights for its life in the crypto world.
If Bitcoin, Ethereum crashes - the alt market does tend to follow similar to major stock indices versus minor.
And there is no exception for this.
Now there are a few other reasons for Stallars downside to come including:
💥 1. Crypto Market Crash
A broader sell-off across crypto markets has dragged Stellar down with it.
📉 2. Lack of Developer Activity
Stellar is facing declining interest from developers compared to rival platforms.
💰 3. Investors Moving to Bigger Coins
Investors are shifting funds to Bitcoin and Ethereum for perceived stability.
🚫 4. Partnerships Falling Through
Several high-profile partnerships have quietly ended or stalled.
🧊 5. Low Community Engagement
Social media buzz and community activity around Stellar have hit new lows.
Here are basic technicals.
M Formation broke downn
Price below 20MA
First target to 200MA
Next to $0.135
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EUR/GBP Weekly Forecast: Double Bottom Pattern, Bullish ReversalOverview of the Chart
This is a EUR/GBP daily chart, showcasing a Double Bottom Pattern, which is a classic bullish reversal formation in technical analysis. The pair has been in a downtrend for several months, but recent price action indicates a potential shift in momentum.
The double bottom pattern consists of two distinct lows (Bottom 1 & Bottom 2) at nearly the same level, forming a W-shaped structure. This suggests that sellers attempted to push the price lower twice but failed both times due to strong buying pressure at the support zone.
As the price starts to rise from the second bottom, the neckline resistance becomes a crucial level to watch. A confirmed breakout above this neckline would validate the pattern and signal a potential bullish rally.
Chart Breakdown & Key Components
1. Double Bottom Pattern Explanation
The first bottom formed in December 2024, marking the lowest price point where buyers stepped in.
The second bottom formed in March 2025, confirming strong demand in the support zone.
The pattern suggests bearish exhaustion, as sellers were unable to push the price lower.
The neckline at ~0.84778 acts as a key breakout level. Once price moves above it, the bullish reversal is confirmed.
🔹 Why is this pattern important?
It signals a trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
It attracts buying interest as traders recognize the formation.
The measured move suggests a potential target of 0.87307, aligning with previous resistance levels.
2. Key Support & Resistance Zones
✅ Support Zone (0.82249 - 0.82458)
This level has been tested twice, making it a strong demand area.
Buyers aggressively defended this zone, preventing further downside.
A break below this level would invalidate the bullish setup.
✅ Neckline Resistance (~0.84778)
This is the breakout level that confirms the double bottom pattern.
A strong bullish daily candle closing above 0.84778 would indicate a trend shift.
The price may retest this level after breaking out, offering a second entry opportunity.
✅ Major Resistance & Target Areas
0.86251 → The first major resistance zone, where price may face some selling pressure.
0.87307 → The final target based on the pattern projection, aligning with historical resistance.
3. Trading Setup & Execution Plan
🔹 Entry Strategy (Breakout Confirmation)
Enter a buy position after the price breaks and closes above the neckline (~0.84778).
A retest of the neckline provides a second chance to enter at a better price.
Look for high volume confirmation on the breakout for additional confidence.
🔹 Stop Loss Placement (Risk Management)
Place the stop-loss below 0.82249, just under the support zone.
This ensures protection against false breakouts.
Avoid placing the stop too tight, as price fluctuations can trigger early exits.
🔹 Take Profit Levels (Reward Calculation)
First Target: 0.86251 (Intermediate Resistance Level)
Final Target: 0.87307 (Measured Move Projection)
Partial profits can be taken at 0.86251, while runners target 0.87307.
🔹 Risk-Reward Analysis
Entry near 0.84778, stop loss below 0.82249, target at 0.87307.
This setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio (R:R) of over 3:1, making it a highly favorable trade.
4. Market Sentiment & Potential Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (High Probability) ✅
Price successfully breaks above the neckline at 0.84778.
Retests the neckline and holds as new support, leading to strong bullish momentum.
Moves toward 0.86251 first, then extends to 0.87307.
This scenario aligns with technical confirmation & volume breakout strategy.
Bearish Scenario (Low Probability) ❌
Price fails to break the neckline and faces rejection.
The pair revisits the support zone (0.82249 - 0.82458) for a third test.
If the support breaks, it could invalidate the bullish setup, leading to continued downtrend.
5. Final Thoughts & Summary 🎯
✅ Pattern Identified → Double Bottom, signaling bullish reversal.
✅ Breakout Level → Watch for confirmation above 0.84778.
✅ Risk Management → Stop loss below 0.82249.
✅ Profit Target → 0.86251 (Partial Profit), 0.87307 (Final Target).
✅ Trade Plan → Buy on breakout, retest entry for better positioning.
🔥 This is a high-probability bullish setup! Watch for breakout confirmation before entering a trade.
Black Hole SunshineA surreal dreamscape, when spilled on water, can ignite under the right conditions, creating dramatic (but harmful) floating flames—an event that brings people back to reality.
The oil patch is on the verge. With an oil to gold ratio near all time high, the watershed moment is close. Accumulate through the near term volatility.
(XAG/USD) weekly Forcast – Double Top Breakdown & Bearish SetupThis detailed technical analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe highlights a potential bearish reversal forming through a Double Top pattern. This setup suggests that Silver could be gearing up for a major decline, provided key confirmation levels are met. Let’s break it down thoroughly.
📌 1. Understanding the Chart Pattern – Double Top Formation
A Double Top is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend, signaling that buyers are losing strength and sellers are taking control.
🔹 Key Phases of the Double Top:
1️⃣ First Top (Top 1)
Silver initially rallied to a major resistance zone ($34.5 - $35).
The price failed to break higher, leading to a correction.
This rejection signals heavy selling pressure at this level.
2️⃣ Pullback to the Neckline ($28.5 - $29)
After the first peak, the price retraced to a critical support area known as the neckline.
This level acts as a decision point—either price bounces or breaks lower.
3️⃣ Second Top (Top 2) – Bull Trap?
Silver made another attempt to break through $34.5 - $35, but once again, sellers defended this level.
The failure to set a new higher high confirms weakness, forming the second peak.
This second rejection adds credibility to the Double Top pattern, increasing the likelihood of a bearish move.
4️⃣ The Crucial Neckline Test
The neckline around $28.5 - $29 is the most critical level to watch.
A clean daily close below this level would confirm the breakdown and trigger a strong bearish trend.
📍 2. Key Technical Levels & Market Structure
🔴 Resistance Level ($34.5 - $35) – Strong Selling Zone
This area has repeatedly rejected price advances, indicating high supply.
A breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
🔵 Support & Neckline ($28.5 - $29) – The Make-or-Break Zone
A break below this level would complete the Double Top pattern and confirm the bearish trend.
If buyers defend this area, Silver could see short-term consolidation before another breakout attempt.
🎯 Target Price ($22 - $23) – Where Silver Could Be Headed
The measured move (distance from top to neckline) suggests a potential drop to $22 - $23.
This aligns with historical support zones, making it a reasonable target.
🚨 Stop Loss Area ($35.2 - $35.5) – Risk Management
If Silver invalidates the pattern and closes above $35.2 - $35.5, the bearish setup is no longer valid.
Traders should cut losses early if price regains bullish momentum.
📊 3. Trading Setup & Execution Plan
🔻 Bearish Trading Plan (Short Entry):
✅ Entry Point:
Enter a short position after a confirmed neckline break below $28.5 - $29.
Wait for a break-and-retest of this level to confirm the bearish move.
✅ Stop Loss:
Place stop loss above $35.2 - $35.5, just beyond the resistance level.
This protects against false breakouts and sudden bullish reversals.
✅ Take Profit Targets:
Primary target: $24.5 - $25 (first support zone).
Final target: $22 - $23 (measured move completion).
📉 4. Market Sentiment & Technical Outlook
📌 Why This Setup is Important:
The Double Top pattern is a well-established bearish signal.
Price failed to create a new high, showing that buying momentum is fading.
The neckline breakdown will confirm that sellers are in control, pushing price lower.
📌 What Could Invalidate This Setup?
If Silver breaks and closes above $35.5, it would signal that bulls have regained strength.
A strong rally above this level could send Silver towards $37 - $38 instead.
🔎 Final Thoughts – Will Silver Collapse or Hold?
The chart suggests a bearish bias, but confirmation is key!
A breakdown below $28.5 - $29 would activate the Double Top pattern, leading to a potential drop.
If Silver bounces off the neckline, then we might see consolidation or a reversal instead.
🚀 What’s your view? Will Silver break down or bounce back? Share your thoughts below! 🚀
BTC is on the way .BUY DIPObservations:
Ascending Channel:
The price is respecting an upward-sloping channel (orange lines), indicating a bullish trend since mid-2022.
The lower boundary serves as strong support, while the upper boundary acts as resistance.
Support Zones:
Two green rectangles highlight potential demand zones around $82,290 and slightly higher. These zones are likely areas where buyers are expected to step in if the price corrects further.
Resistance Levels:
Key resistance levels are marked with red lines: $108,171, $131,987, $175,479, and $232,111. These may act as profit-taking zones if the price continues to rally.
Current Price Action:
The price ($98,687) seems to be consolidating near the upper range of the channel. If it breaks out above this range, a more significant rally could follow.
Alternatively, a rejection here could trigger a pullback toward the support zones.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Case:
A breakout above the upper channel boundary could lead to testing the $108,171 resistance. Sustained momentum may target the next resistance levels at $131,987 and beyond.
Bearish Case:
If the price fails to break the resistance and drops, the first support to watch is around $82,290. A deeper correction might revisit the channel's lower boundary.
Neutral/Consolidation:
The price could consolidate within the $90,000–$100,000 range before making a decisive move.
BTCUSDBitcoin landing to 74k
summary economic projections still optimistic fed cut rate 3.9
in a year last cycle for bitcoin.
times good to buy #BTCUSD in last Quarter 3 (september)
Bullish xauusdHi traders
The previous idea so I shared on March 19th came true and was very pleasing👌 😊
But now
Given the bullish momentum of the market, I expect the next resistance zone to be around 3105-3120
I think the most appropriate price to buy is 3062, of course, if the price pulls back
My idea is based on the technical and fundamental events that I see in the market(President Trump's ideas and words regarding Iran and the Middle East and the decisions of central banks)
