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Fundamental Analysis

WTI CRUDE OIL USD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Price is reacting from a weekly FVG just below the 50% of a larger range, with some bullish momentum possibly fueled by recent geopolitical tensions. But price is still within a bearish range acting as resistance, so upside may remain limited unless structure shifts. A daily bullish OB below the 50% of that range could offer a solid pullback entry if price retraces which is aligning with the broader narrative and upside liquidity. Im having a neutral view of this and leveraging on both sides. What are your thoughts?
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD
by AnthonyAaron
GBPNZD: Potential Reversal From The Resistance ZoneGBPNZD: Potential Reversal From The Resistance Zone GBPNZD tested an area that was also tested earlier at the beginning of March 2025 From the chart, we can see that this zone has stopped the price several times on the past. The chances are that GBPNZD may start a bearish wave from the same zone again despite that the market has frozen for all instruments lately. The Geopolitical situation looks more stable, which can help all currencies regain direction. NZD is already oversold too much so it can take advantage of this moment. Key target areas: 2.2500; 2.2380 and 2.2280 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
1
Gold Steady, Dollar Wobbles — Here’s Why🧠 Midweek Market Snapshot | DXY, XAUUSD, BTCUSD This week’s market action is being shaped by easing geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cut speculation, and safe-haven flows. 🔻 The US Dollar (DXY) continues to weaken as talk of interest rate cuts builds and Middle East tensions cool off. 🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) remains firm, supported by central bank buying and dollar softness. ₿ Bitcoin (BTCUSD) shows strength, holding above $100K after bouncing back from geopolitical dips. 📊 Key drivers: • Fed rate expectations • US inflation & job data • Ceasefire talks between Israel & Iran • Central bank gold demand 🎥 Catch the quick breakdown on YouTube 📌 Follow for weekly updates, trade ideas, and price insights. #DXY #XAUUSD #BTCUSD #MarketUpdate #TradingView #MidweekMarketReview #Crypto #Forex #Gold #Bitcoin
FX:XAUUSD
by DeanMuller
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 25, 2025 USDJPYEvents to pay attention to today: 17:00 EET.USD - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech 17:30 EET.USD - Crude oil inventory data from the Department of Energy USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) remains in the lead against the US dollar during Wednesday's Asian session and remains close to the weekly high reached the day before, amid a combination of favourable factors. The summary of opinions from participants at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in June showed that some policymakers called for interest rates to be kept unchanged due to uncertainty about the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy. In addition, the fragile truce between Israel and Iran and trade uncertainty are supporting the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, investors seem convinced that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again amid mounting inflationary pressure in Japan. These forecasts are confirmed by Japan's producer price index (PPI), which rose for the third consecutive month in May and remained above 3% year-on-year. In contrast, traders are factoring into their prices the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further lower the cost of borrowing this year. This, in turn, is causing US dollar (USD) bulls to tread cautiously and suggests that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding Japanese yen remains upward. Trading recommendation: SELL 144.900, SL 145.100, TP 144.000
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GOLD (XAU/USD), cycle top made?Has the price of gold made its final high point in a bullish cycle, while the geopolitical situation in the Middle East seems to be beginning to ease? The answer to this question cannot be a simple yes, as there are so many fundamental factors influencing gold's trend on the commodities market. But it is true that, in terms of technical analysis, signals of the end of a bullish cycle (the one that began at the start of 2024, when the price made a bullish technical break of its former all-time high at $2075 an ounce of gold) are gradually appearing, in particular bearish divergences. 1) GOLD, medium/long-term bearish technical divergences are gradually appearing First of all, let's begin our analysis with the technical aspect for medium/long-term time horizons. The two charts below show signs that the underlying uptrend is running out of steam, with a bearish price/momentum divergence in weekly data. As for the monthly chart, it shows that the theoretical targets of bullish wave number 5 (the last bullish impulse in the Elliott wave cycle) have been made. This doesn't mean with 100% probability that the final high point has been made, but it does highlight that the bullish cycle is well matured and that less buoyant fundamentals may trigger a price breath at the current stage. Chart showing Japanese candles in monthly gold price data (XAU/USD) Chart showing Japanese candles in weekly gold price data (XAU/USD) 2) On the other hand, we must remain cautious, as the geopolitical situation is still very tense, and the fundamental factors influencing gold are many and varied The fundamentals that have underpinned GOLD's fundamental uptrend are numerous and go far beyond the geopolitical framework. While geopolitics is calming down in the Middle East, it remains very complicated in Ukraine. But despite everything, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is taking bullish support away from the GOLD. But keep in mind that other factors are at work, notably physical demand for gold in China and financial demand for gold via ETFs in particular. The latter is directly linked to interest rates, the US dollar and therefore the FED's monetary policy outlook. Therefore, mere appeasement in the Middle East is NOT a sufficient argument for the end of GOLD's bullish cycle in fundamental terms. 3) The bullish technical signal we highlighted for you on XPT/USD In an analysis of precious metals on June 10, we highlighted a bullish technical signal on the platinum price (XPT/USD), with an outperformance signal given against gold. This analysis can be viewed again by clicking on the link/image below. Based on the monthly technical analysis, the platinum price is approaching the overbought zone, so don't hesitate to accompany the movement with a trailing protective stop, as sooner or later there will be a market breather. Chart showing monthly Japanese candlesticks for platinum (XPT/USD) DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Swissquote
Opportunities only come to those who ambush in advanceAfter Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, the market's risk aversion sentiment cooled significantly, and the price of gold once plummeted by more than $30. Although the stability of the ceasefire agreement is in doubt, the rebound in risk appetite dominates the market trend, with stock markets rebounding, oil prices falling, and demand for safe-haven assets falling. Powell will deliver a semi-annual monetary policy testimony, and the market is paying attention to his statement on the timing of the July rate cut. At present, the internal differences of the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts have intensified. If Powell sends a signal that the number of interest rate cuts this year is limited, it may strengthen the rebound of the US dollar and suppress gold prices; on the contrary, if the stance is dovish, it may ease the downward pressure on gold prices. In the short term, the fading of geopolitical risks and the warming of risk appetite are the main reasons for the decline in gold prices, but the weakening of the US dollar and the potential dovish tendency of the Federal Reserve still provide support. In the medium and long term, global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks and expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose policy still constitute structural support for gold. From a technical perspective, the gold daily moving average system is in an intertwined state, and the forces of bulls and bears are relatively balanced. The current short-term resistance above is around 3320-3333, which is an important psychological level. If an effective breakthrough is achieved or the upside space is opened, the support below will focus on the 3285-3295 line, which is the lower edge of the May oscillation platform. If it falls below, the pressure of the correction may increase. The loss of the middle track in the 4-hour chart further confirms the short-term weak structure and provides technical support for the downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the pullback near 3285-3295. At present, gold continues to fall in line with the trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
XAUUSD 1H | Harmonic AB=CD | Sentiment Reversal in PlayGold has formed a clean Harmonic AB=CD Pattern, with price currently sitting at the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). This aligns with technical expectations for a possible bullish shift. 🗓️ The recent sharp sell-off in Gold was heavily influenced by the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, triggering fear, panic, and speculative selling. Despite Gold's fundamentally bullish bias as a safe-haven asset, market sentiment overpowered fundamentals in the short term. 🔍 On the 30min LTF, we have a crystal-clear Bullish Divergence on RSI, adding further confluence that downside momentum is weakening, and a corrective reversal may unfold from this area. Bias: ✅ Harmonic AB=CD complete — PRZ active ✅ LTF Bullish Divergence (30m) confirmed ✅ Price action showing exhaustion at key support ✅ Expecting potential bullish reaction and relief rally ⚠️ As always, waiting for confirmation with proper risk management. Market remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines. 💡 DYOR — Do Your Own Research before executing trades.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by awaisulabdeen
GOLD GOLD ASIANS SESSION ,the price action of gold faces immediate resistance at 3334.91 descending black trendline backed by ema+sma 100 on 2hr timeframe ,correction from 3295 low yesterday could be seeing buy potential from 3326 and 3318.9 last level. be careful of dips into 3318.9 price level,because it could use broken demand floor as supply roof and continue selling. for a healthy buying ,i expect 3326-3325 to hold buy. US10y stands at 4.30% jumps from 4.28% low yesterday and interest rate remains 4.25-4.5% held steady from fed last monetary policy meeting . cease fire slowing buy momentum and 10 year bond yield on demand floor ,if investors go the bonds way,then gold could be seeing a bearish continuation in a short term, note;the long term direction remains bullish. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will speak today and it is expected to emphasize a data-dependent approach to monetary policy amid mixed economic signals. Key points likely to be highlighted: Inflation Outlook: Powell may note that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target but is showing signs of gradual easing, especially in core services and goods prices. Interest Rate Path: The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious stance, signaling that while rate cuts are possible later in 2025, decisions will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly inflation and labor market conditions. Economic Growth: Powell may express concerns about slowing growth and global uncertainties but stress the Fed’s commitment to balancing inflation control with supporting the economy. Housing Market: Given recent housing data, Powell might mention the impact of elevated mortgage rates on housing affordability and sales. Overall, the testimony is expected to reinforce the Fed’s “patient and flexible” approach, leaving markets alert for any shifts in tone regarding the timing of rate cuts. 1. New Home Sales (USD) Forecast: 694,000 units Previous: 743,000 units The forecast anticipates a decline in new home sales compared to the previous month, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing market primarily due to elevated mortgage rates. Recent reports from Fannie Mae and Zillow indicate that higher mortgage rates (projected to end 2025 around 6.5%) are weighing on home sales, leading to downward revisions in sales forecasts for 2025. Despite some regional variations and slight upticks in existing home sales, the overall trend points to a cooling housing market with slower new home sales growth. However, elevated mortgage rates and a cautious labor market continues to restrain some buyers. 2. Crude Oil Inventories (USD) Forecast: -1.2 million barrels (draw) Previous: -11.5 million barrels (large draw) The forecast expects a smaller inventory draw compared to the previous week’s significant reduction. Inventory draws typically support crude oil prices, but a smaller-than-expected draw could temper price gains. Crude oil inventory data influences energy prices and can indirectly impact inflation expectations and market sentiment. #gold
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
SOONUSDT → The coin that gets killed...BINANCE:SOONUSDT.P is under pressure. The coin looks extremely weak against the backdrop of a bullish market, with key support ahead, separating traders from the panic zone and a sharp decline This coin is being killed. The price is gradually consolidating and compressing before support - the trigger is 0.2332. Against the backdrop of the overall decline that the market has experienced after a slight impulse from 0.2332, shocks are forming with the aim of capturing liquidity (red check marks). This generally indicates that large players are gathering a bearish position. A breakout of the risk zone will trigger panic and distribution. Against the backdrop of growth in Bitcoin and the top 10 cryptocurrencies (bull market), the SOON coin is gradually declining and contracting towards key support, which could be broken accompanied by strong sell-offs. Resistance levels: 0.2478, 0.25777 Support levels: 0.2332 If the coin continues to contract towards the 0.2332 support and form a pre-breakdown consolidation, there will be little chance of survival. In the short and medium term, I expect prices to fall. Best regards, R. Linda!
BINANCE:SOONUSDT.PShort
by RLinda
6
EURAUD → Breakout and consolidation above key supportOANDA:EURAUD is trying to consolidate above the key support zone of 1.76 - 1.77. Within the uptrend, bulls have a fairly good chance. The market continues to break of structure, confirming the bullish sentiment on the chart. A correction is forming from 1.7882. Before rising, the price may test support. The currency pair is supported by its own bullish trend and the falling dollar (especially against the backdrop of economic problems with the USD (DXY)). Technically, the currency pair looks quite positive. After the formation of another ‘bos’, we are seeing a correction to the Fibonacci zone of 0.7 and support at 1.7696. If, during the retest, the bulls manage to hold their ground above the key support level, growth may continue in the medium term. Support levels: 1.7696, 1.7629, 1.7463 Resistance levels: 1.7882, 1.7988 Locally, a reversal pattern is forming relative to the specified zone (as part of a correction). We need to wait for confirmation (price consolidation above the level). The potential within the bullish trend is quite large, and in the medium and long term, the price may test 1.85. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
4
GOLD → Declining interest. Retest of supportFX:XAUUSD experienced significant volatility toward the end of the US trading session. This was due to developments in the Middle East. The de-escalation of the situation is leading to a decline in interest in the metal. The announced ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while falling oil prices have reduced its appeal as a hedge against inflation. Gold is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in July. The focus is on Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress and further developments in the Middle East. Technically, the price confirms the local bearish structure. A continued assault on the 3340 support level could trigger a further decline. Support levels: 3343-3340, 3320 Resistance levels: 3360, 3366 Focus on the trading range (consolidation) 3340 - 3400. De-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may lead to a decline in interest in gold as a hedge asset, which may cause the price to break down of consolidation. If the retest of 3340 continues, the price will begin to contract before the level, in which case the chances of a breakdown and decline will only increase. The target will be the liquidity zone of 3320 - 3306 Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
38
Gold is under pressure. Will the trend change?Information summary: The easing of tensions in the Middle East is the main reason for the suppression of gold. Risk aversion has weakened, and the market has entered a risk-taking mode. Gold prices are well supported near $3,300. Powell released an important signal: The market expected Powell to strongly refute the possibility of a rate cut, but he remained on the sidelines. The market still generally believes that the July 29-30 meeting is unlikely to initiate a rate cut, and the first rate cut is expected to be in September. Market analysis: Gold has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, which has changed the current bull structure in stages, so there is no doubt that gold is expected to fall back as a whole. The early decline was near 3355, which is the current long-short watershed of gold. As long as the adjustment does not break through the 3355 position, the overall short-term adjustment pattern of gold will not change. The early Asian market did not continue to retreat, but the short-term rebound had a long buying force accumulation, but as long as it did not break through 3355, the market trend was still weak, and it was adjusted by low-level shock correction. Today, there is a high probability of movement around the falling range. The short-term support below is around 3290. If this position is lost, it may touch the turning point around 3275. Operation strategy: Go long when the price falls back to around 3315, stop loss at 3305, and profit range 3345-3350.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Quaid_1
Uber (UBER, 1W) Tightening Structure Ready for BreakoutOn the weekly chart, UBER has formed a strong ascending wedge / tightening channel, showing clear higher lows and repeated rejections near upper resistance. The price is now approaching the apex of the pattern, with a possible breakout setup above $82.42. If confirmed, the projected measured move (H = $27.67) aligns with Fibonacci extension targets at: – $89.86 (1.272) – $93.74 (1.414) – $99.32 (1.618) Technical structure: – Price held support twice, confirming bullish intent – Structure tightening — breakout likely on sustained volume – Bullish divergence forming on the weekly stochastic oscillator – A breakout above $82.42 activates the next impulse wave – Volume is stable, with no signs of heavy distribution Fundamentals: Uber has reached a major financial milestone: consistent profitability and positive EBITDA growth. The company continues to expand across mobility and delivery, with a focus on cost efficiency, platform monetization, and retention. Increased user activity and growing institutional interest support a bullish mid-term thesis. Uber is increasingly seen as a core holding in next-gen tech and services portfolios. The technical structure is approaching resolution. A confirmed breakout above $82.42 opens the door for a move to $89.86 → $93.74 → $99.32. With bullish structure and improving fundamentals, Uber is positioned for the next leg higher. This is a setup worth watching.
NYSE:UBERLong
by TotoshkaTrades
2
GBP/JPY Triangle Breakout (25.06.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 195.96 2nd Support – 195.37 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
8
Unlocking the Bull Vault: USD/CAD Heist Setup🕵️‍♂️💼 The Loonie Vault Raid: USD/CAD Buy Blueprint 💰🔐 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 To All Currency Conquerors, Market Raiders & Profit Seekers 💸🚁🕶️ Welcome to another Thief Trading Style playbook, crafted for bold traders ready to infiltrate the Forex vaults with precision. 📜 Mission Brief – The Loonie USD/CAD Buy Op: Using a blend of 🔥strategic market intel🔥 (technical + fundamental), we’re gearing up for a targeted buy operation. The goal? Extract max profits and vanish before the guards show up. 🏃‍♂️💨 🎯 ENTRY POINT – Authorized Access Only! 🎯 Buy Zone #1: Around 1.37000+ 🎯 Buy Zone #2: Around 1.36400 (Caution: This is Market Maker Trap turf – approach wisely) ⏳ Wait for pullback signs & reversal confirmation before execution – The real pros enter when the crowd hesitates. 🛑 STOP LOSS – Backup Plan if Things Go South 🧠 Wise raiders always have an exit route! 🔹 SL Strategy 1: Nearest Swing Low on 2H timeframe (e.g., 1.36000) 🔹 SL Strategy 2: Institutional Buy Zone SL (1.34000 or deeper) 💡 Position sizing and risk tolerance are your call, but don’t skip this shield. 🏴‍☠️ TARGET – Where the Loot Lies 🎯 Aim for 1.39500 or exit early if the heat rises (volatility spike/consolidation stalls) 💼 Remember, the best thieves know when to grab the bag and bounce. 💹 Scalpers Advisory – Shortcuts to Riches 👀 Only ride the bullish tide. 💰 If you’ve got capital muscle, dive in. If not, roll with the swing crew. 📌 Trail that SL like a pro – don’t get caught slippin’. 📊 Why We Strike Now – The Big Picture USD/CAD is showing bullish signs backed by: ✔️ Macro shifts ✔️ COT reports ✔️ Sentiment shift ✔️ Intermarket synergy ✔️ Smart money positioning 🔗 Full intel available – KlicK & explore! ⚠️ High Alert: News & Chaos Protocol 🚨 News drops = alarm bells. To survive: 📌 Avoid fresh trades during major releases 📌 Use trailing SL to protect your gains 📌 Don’t overexpose – one vault at a time 💖 Support the Crew – Hit BOOST Your boost helps fund the next mission. Show love, share strength, and become part of the Forex Heist Syndicate 🕵️‍♂️💵💼 One chart at a time, we rewrite the game. 🎯 Stay locked in – next mission drops soon... 🤑💻🚀
Long
by Thief_Trader
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 23 - Jun 27]This week, after opening at $3,369/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD prices fluctuated within a fairly narrow range, from only $3,340-$3,374/oz, and closed at $3,368/oz. The fact that gold prices closed this week close to the opening price shows that investors are hesitant in the current context. The reason why gold prices are still fluctuating within a narrow range this week is because US President Donald Trump gave Iran a 2-week deadline to consider negotiating an end to the conflict with Israel, even though the Israel-Iran conflict is still raging. In addition, on June 12, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, while adjusting its forecast for US GDP growth lower and raising its estimate for near-term inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that tariffs would push up prices and weigh on economic activity. Although two rate cuts are expected before the end of the year, Powell said the Fed may wait for more clarity before cutting rates. Next week, the Fed Chairman will hold two semiannual monetary policy hearings before the US House and Senate committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. If Fed Chairman Powell hints at a rate cut in September 2025, the USD could fall against other major currencies, causing gold prices to rise next week. Conversely, if the Fed Chairman emphasizes that they will continue to prioritize controlling inflation and is in no hurry to cut interest rates, the USD will rise, thereby pushing gold prices down next week. 📌Technically, the gold price on the H4 and D1 charts is stuck between the range of 3295-3450, which is an important support level around 3295, and the resistance level at 3450. The current price is moving sideways and accumulating in smaller time frames, and the trend has not been clearly defined when it has not broken through the above two resistance levels. There are two scenarios for gold. In the long-term framework, if it breaks through the 3450 zone and breaks the trend at the same time, it is expected that the gold price will set a new high. In the case that the gold price trades below the 3300 round resistance, and at the same time the 3295 support zone is broken, it is easy to form a head and shoulders pattern on the H4 chart. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,350 – 3,320 – 3,300USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435 – 3,500USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3416 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2