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Fundamental Analysis

US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC rate decisionSurprisingly low Non-farm payrolls of 12K surprised markets and shaped investors sentiment as of the end of the previous week. The US Treasury yields were heading higher testing shortly the level of 4,3%, however, Friday's noisy NFPs pushed the yields toward the 4,36% level. The week ahead will be the crucial one of the further courses of the 10Y Treasury benchmark. On November 7th, the FOMC will decide on the further course of US interest rates. It is to be seen how Fed currently perceives the US jobs market, and whether such a low jobs level will have an impact on Fed decision. At this moment, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. At this moment, there is an indication of a possibility that the market will test the level of 4,4%, before the yields ease a bit back. Still, due to US Presidential elections and the FOMC rate decision, this might be another highly volatile week on US financial markets.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Gold: another fresh new ATHOngoing geopolitical tensions and mixed macro data in the US pushed the prices of gold to the newest all-time highest level in this year. Gold reached the highest level at $2.785 on Wednesday, but reverted a bit back on Friday, amid US Dollar strengthening, at level of $2.735. The US Treasury yields also gained after disappointing Non-farm payrolls data for October, which had an additional impact for the price of gold. Despite the new ATH, the RSI is showing that the price of gold has moved from the overbought market zone. The indicator moved down till the level of 59 on Friday. This is indication that the market might soon start looking at the oversold market side, however, it will take some time until the clear side is reached. For a few months now there has been no change with moving averages of 50 and 200 days, as they both move as two parallel lines with an uptrend. The week ahead could be a tricky one. There are US Presidential elections on November 5th, and FOMC rate decision on November 7th. Both events might bring higher volatility on markets. Any trades should be taken with precaution. As per current charts, there is potential for a further correction of the price of gold, where the $2,7K level might be tested. A correction below this level might trigger a $2.680 level. At this moment a further move to the upside could be triggered in case of further geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Still, as previously noted, a higher volatility might easily be triggered in the week ahead.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
SPX: Presidential elections and FOMCThe US stocks had a relatively mixed week. The S&P 500 started the week with the negative sentiment, around the level of 5.840, and moved in Thursday trading session to the lowest weekly level at 5.705. Still, during Friday the index managed to gain some 0,4%, ending the week at the level of 5.728. The Non-farm payrolls were the major surprise for the markets during the previous week. The US economy added only 12.000 new jobs in October, which was the lowest level since the pandemic. Analysts are noting that such a weak performance is a result of hurricanes and labor strikes, and that the labor market in the US stands on solid grounds. Amazon was one of the companies which was in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 6,2%, as the company continues to strengthen its cloud and advertising business above market current expectations. Intel was another company which strongly outperformed market forecasts, gaining 7,8% for the week. Regardless of a bumpy start of November, this might continue for the week ahead. Namely, two quite important events for the US are scheduled for the week ahead - on November 5th the US Presidential elections and FOMC rate decision on November 7th. These two events are implying that higher volatility and market nervousness might continue for another week.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
EURUSD: Fed`s decision weekThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge in the US, the PCE Price Index, was standing at 0,2% in September, bringing the index to 2,1% on a yearly basis. Figures were in line with market expectations. The Personal Income was higher by 0,3% in September while Personal Spending was increased by 0,5% a bit higher from market estimate of 0,4%. The Non-farm payrolls again surprised markets with data for October reaching only 12K. This was a significant drop from 223K posted for the previous month and significantly lower from 180K forecasted by market. Unemployment rate in October was unchanged at 4.1%. Average Hourly Earnings were higher by 0,4% in October, leading to an yearly increase of 4%. As for other macro data published for the US, the GDP Growth rate in Q3 showed an acceleration of the US economy of 2.8% for the quarter, which was a bit lower from market forecast of 3%. The US House Price Index was higher by 0,3% in August, bringing the total increase of housing prices to 4,2% on a yearly basis. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October reached the level of 46,5, which was a bit lower from market consensus of 47,6. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in November was -18,3 which was a bit better from consensus of -20,5. Unemployment rate in Germany in October was higher by 0,1%, ending the month at 6,1%. The GDP Growth rate flash for Q3 was better than expected at the level of 0,2% for the quarter, while market expectations were standing at -0,1%. At the same time, GDP Growth rate on a yearly basis is still standing at the negative territory of -0,2%. The GDP Growth rate in the Euro Zone in Q3 was at the level of 0,4%, and 0,9% on a yearly basis. Inflation rate in Germany, preliminary for October, was standing at 2% for the year, and 0,4% for the month, which was a bit higher from market expectations of 1,8% and 0,2%. At the same time, the inflation rate in the Euro Zone for the same period was standing at 2,0% for the year and 0,3% for the month. Core inflation remained elevated at the level of 2,7% y/y. Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone remained flat in September at the level of 6,3%. The currency pair was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, considering mixed macro data which was posted during the week. First half of the week, eurusd spent on a move from 1,08 support line and moved toward the highest weekly level at 1,09, a short term resistance line. Still, Friday's NFP was a huge surprise for markets, when the eurusd reverted back, ending the week at the level of 1,0834. The RSI reached its maximum weekly level at 45, indicating that the market is still not ready to cross the 50 line and start its move toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days continues with its convergence toward the MA200. There is still a distance between lines, but also an indication that the cross might occur within a few weeks. The week ahead has the potential to be one of the most stressful trading weeks of the year. First, US Presidential elections are due on November 5th, which would certainly make markets react in line with an election outcome. Two days later, on November 7th, the Fed will decide on the further course of interest rates. Fed moves always imply higher market reactions, which implies that the week ahead might be one with higher market moves to one or both sides. Current charts are clearly showing that the market is uncertain which side to trade. On one side, there is some probability that the level of the 1,08 support line could be tested for one more time. There is also an indication for the resistance line at 1,10. Still, this level could be reached within a week or two, not necessarily in the week ahead. For the following week the much probable level could be 1,09, eventually 1,095. However, as previously noted, any surprises during the week, might trigger high volatility, so trading precaution is highly recommended. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for October for Germany and the Euro Zone, HCOB Services PMI final for October for Germany and the Euro Zone, Balance of Trade for Germany in September, Industrial Production in Germany for September, USD: ISM Services PMI for October, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference after the FOMC meeting, Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
by XBTFX
Bitcoin: on a quest for new ATHThe crypto market benefited from the ongoing US Presidential campaign. Namely, as one Presidential candidate is counting on votes from the crypto community, so the market is reacting to initial pools for a potential win of this candidate. This is currently a market game, betting on a better future condition for further push of the crypto coins into the mainstream including the enlargement of the crypto ecosystem. Certainly, no one knows what the final result will be, for both the US Presidency and crypto ecosystem, but still, BTC price benefited from such expectation, which is certainly positive. BTC price reached its highest weekly level at $73.338. It is quite close to BTCs ATH from March this year. Still, during the second half of the week, BTC reverted back a bit, ending the week around the $69,3K level. The RSI moved from clear overbought territory, down to the level of 57. There is currently no clear indication that the market started its reversal toward the oversold market side. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days formed a clear golden cross two weeks ago, while MA50 continued its divergence from MA200. The week ahead will be marked by two important events. The US Presidential elections are scheduled for November 5th and FOMC rate decision, scheduled for November 7th. These two events are promising higher market volatility. In this sense, the price of BTC might turn to both sides quite easily. At this point on charts, there is probability that BTC will test the level of $68K, where the support line stands. Whether the price of BTC might revert to the fresh new ATH, could not be clearly noted at this moment from charts. It would depend on the market sentiment after November 5th and 7th. Trading precaution is highly advisable.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
USDCHF: 04/04/2024Dear Traders, I wanted to provide you with an update on the USDCHF currency pair. As you know, the DXY has been extremely bullish since the beginning of February, and this has caused the USDCHF to rally without any major corrections. This has been supported by both fundamental and technical factors. However, we are now seeing some strong bearish behavior on the USD, and this is likely to have a significant impact on USD pairs. In particular, we have some major news coming up tomorrow that is likely to affect the USD pairs significantly. I will keep you updated on the situation as it develops. good luck and trade safe
Short
by Setupsfx_
10
BTC/USDT LOCAL Short SignalI'm observing a bearish trend on BTC/USDT. Bitcoin has broken through a significant support level around $67,606, indicating potential further downside. The setup is clear, with an entry just below the support level, aiming for a substantial move lower. Bitcoin has shown continued selling pressure, with lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend. The breakdown of support aligns with this trend, suggesting a continuation of the bearish momentum. This trade follows the momentum, aiming to capitalize on the downward move. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and use appropriate risk management in trading.
Short
by HedonistTrade
2
#APE (SPOT- Investing ) entry (0.60 - 0.830). SL (0.475)entry range ( 0.60 - 0.830) SL .Daily close below (0.475) **NOTES*** 1* this coin is very heavy, it may take long time to achieve the targets and the targets is for the BULL RUN 2* collect the coin slowly in the entry range ( do not all in one time in one price ) *********************************************************** BINANCE:APEUSDT #APE #APEUSDT #APEUSD #swingtrade #shortterminvestment #ALTCOIN #Cryptotading #cryptoinvesting #investment ##trading #cryptocurrencytrading #bitcoininvestments #Investing_Coins #Investingcoins #Crypto_investing #Cryptoinvesting **** #Manta ,#OMNI, #DYM, #AI, #IO, #XAI , #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #Voxel #AEVO #VITE #APE **** #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT
Long
by Crypto_alphabit
9
The Weekend: Prepping to Trade & Travel w/AIRAIn preparation for a trip to show my daughter more of Thailand, I've switched to a fully mobile setup. I’m running everything with just two laptops and a monitor for each, getting my mind ready for this new workflow. I’m excited for this change because our usual work routine felt like it was limiting her experiences at such a crucial time in her life. This upcoming week is a big one, but nothing is more important than her growth and development. So, I hope you enjoy this test video. Rest assured, What's Flowing videos will keep flowing, and my algorithms will stay busy spread trading across various markets.
TVC:DXYEducation
by moneymagnateash
Gold swing trade 03 NovemberWith the US elections on Tuesday we have to be carful on that day as Gold will make some erratic moves pre and post election results. Trade is based on Fibonacci levels and trend lines both weekly .daily and 4 hour looking for a break on previous support levels . If Trump wins am thinking this will be good for US dollar , this is based on previous election results last time Trump got in we saw the dollar rise. Like wise if Harris wins we can expect the USD to fall so gold will rise. For this entry we are looking for gold to rise and get rejected at 2743.2 area, best for us to wait for break and retest there and then fall to previous support level at 2716/17 so we are targeting 270 pips . Trade safe on Tuesday watch out for sudden moves and as always don't overleverage.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by F0rexBorex
1
AMAZON | AMZN , Jeff is back? While Jeff Bezos, fiancée Lauren Sánchez have star studded engagement party on his $500M yacht Amazon has just reported its Q2 2023 earnings result, EPS of 65 cents is not comparable on YoY basis nor to consensus due to the company booking some gains related to its Rivian Automotive, Inc (RIVN) investment. Revenue of $134.3 billion beat consensus by about 2% while showing a YoY jump by nearly 11%. As an immediate reaction, the stock is up nearly 8% after-hours, although this can turn on a dime.I wrote in my preview that Amazon still remains a revenue story and to pay attention to Q2's actual revenue and Q3's revenue guidance. Amazon hit it out of the park on both counts, with Q2 revenue showing an 11% jump and Q3 guidance of $138 billion to $143 billion, easily upping the consensus of $138.29 billion. As a direct effect of the company reining in on its expenses, Amazon's Free Cash Flow ("FCF") in Q2 2023 improved to almost $8 billon compared to -$23.5 billion in Q2 2022. Headcount is now down 4% YoY.Advertising, which I've highlighted as the next growth driver in many of my past articles, was up 22% YoY. But, more importantly, resumed its upward trajectory on a quarterly basis. Advertising services revenue showed continuous QoQ improvement until the first blip in Q1 2023. Whether Q2's upsurge is a new trend remains to be seen, but it is encouraging that Q2 did not follow Q1 down. I am also glad that my prediction that advertising will cross $10 billion in sales came true.It appears like retail has finally stopped bleeding profusely to avoid wasting all the gains from AWS and Advertising. In my view, retail is just their medium to sell their ecosystem, and this is acceptable to me. Heading into earnings, Amazon stock was almost into the oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index ("RSI") of 37. Revenue beat and guidance should help the stock garner more analyst support in the upcoming days, and I fully expect the stock's almost-oversold conditions to be in the stock's favor as it has plenty of room upwards technically. The after-hours move has also helped the stock clear all of the commonly used moving averages.AWS's revenue and operating income appeared to be on a perennial, mid-double-digit growth trajectory until recently. However, Q2 saw AWS' sales increase by "just" 12% while operating income fell by more than 5%. It is in this context that advertising services becomes even more important. While $22 billion is strong, it fell well short of the $25 billion I predicted, as the company aims to cross $100 billion in 2023 AWS revenue. The stock was already up 50% YTD heading into earnings and the run appears set to continue. I am not complaining as a long, but it shouldn't surprise anyone to see the stock pullback from the highs given the market's shaky behavior the last few days. Overall, Q2 results are much better than Q1, and that shows in the stock's performance, at least as shown in the after-hours price movement. However, Amazon has never been a single quarter or single year story for me. Amazon's ecosystem is enough reason for me to continue believing in the company long-term. The ability to leverage multiple products and services across the entire organization is not something any company can build overnight. In fact, even Amazon has taken nearly 30 years to be the company that it is today
NASDAQ:AMZN
by moonypto
5
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 04 - Nov 08]This week, after rising to 2,790 USD/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD then continuously dropped sharply to 2,733 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,736 USD/oz. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US's October non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed that the country only created 12,000 jobs, significantly lower than the forecast of 100,000 jobs due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. recent storms. Although the US economy created fewer jobs than expected, the country's unemployment rate in October remained unchanged at 4.1%. Meanwhile, wage inflation increased. Specifically, average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month, higher than the forecast of 0.3%. In particular, the US's basic Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October - the FED's favorite inflation measure - remained at a high level of 2.7%, unchanged from the level of July and October. All of the above economic data show that the FED is in a difficult position when production activities decline sharply, the labor market weakens, but inflation remains continuously high. However, many forecasts are likely that the FED will still cut interest rates by another 0.25% next week, but will cautiously announce the direction of interest rate cuts in the next meetings. In addition to the FED meeting, next week there will also be the US Presidential election on November 5. According to forecasts of many experts, it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as US President. If Mr. Trump becomes US President in the next term, he will impose strong tariffs on imported goods as promised during the election campaign. This will push inflation up, forcing the FED to delay interest rate cuts, and may even have to raise interest rates again. Thus, next week's gold price is at risk of being double-impacted by the FED meeting and the US presidential election. 📌Technically, in the H4 chart, gold price still shows a clear uptrend when the price trades above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if gold prices still trade above the 2720 threshold, we can expect gold prices to continue to maintain an upward trend. In case the price will return to a downward adjustment cycle if the 2710 support zone is broken, correspondingly in the H1 chart, the gold price forms a head and shoulders model. If this model is correct, the gold price will find its way back around mark 2650. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.700 – 2.710 – 2.720USD Resistance: 2.786 – 2.768 – 2.745USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2776 - 2774⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2780 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
AAVE LONG IDEA - AAVE Coin Swing Long OpportunityAAVE is a coin I monitored closely during Summer 2024. While most altcoins were making new lows, AAVE was accumulating and showed resilience, which suggested to me that it might outperform others in the 2024-2025 altcoin bull season. Technical Analysis: Price accumulated within the monthly demand zone throughout Summer 2024. It finally took off, breaking the weekly structure and creating strong bullish momentum on the weekly and daily charts. Currently, price is retracing to the weekly demand zone responsible for the structural break, which is also supported by the monthly demand. This level appears strong to me. I anticipate a slight retracement to grab daily swing liquidity before taking off from that area, which aligns with the Fibonacci golden entry level, adding further confidence. I’ll be watching for LTF confirmations to enter the trade.
Long
by UA_CAPITAL