Sell GoldThe Grok AI controversy has minimal direct impact on gold prices. However, if it leads to broader market uncertainty or tech sector instability, investors might seek gold as a safe haven, potentially driving prices up. For now, gold remains stable, so no strong buy/sell signal solely based on this event. Keep an eye on broader market trends.…so we can look on a potential short term sell thus, an accumulation phase
Fundamental Analysis
CHF/JPY "Swiss vs Japanese" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 3H timeframe (167.500) swing trade basis.
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Target 🎯:
Primary Target - 171.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
Secondary Target - 174.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
CHF/JPY "Swiss vs Japanese" Forex Market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors.
🟡Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental factors driving CHF/JPY stem from the Swiss and Japanese economies, central bank policies, and safe-haven dynamics.
╰┈➤Interest Rates:
Swiss National Bank (SNB): Rates likely at 0.75-1% in Feb 2025, down from 1.25% in 2024, reflecting global easing. Negative real yields (e.g., -1.5% with 2.5% inflation) bolster CHF’s safe-haven status.
Bank of Japan (BoJ): Rates at 0.25-0.5%, a cautious hike from near-zero, but still a funding currency. Yield differential favors CHF slightly.
Impact: Mildly bullish for CHF/JPY, as CHF retains a yield edge.
╰┈➤Inflation:
Switzerland: Inflation at 2-2.5%, above SNB’s 0-2% target, prompting potential currency strength to curb import costs.
Japan: Inflation at 2.5%, high for Japan, but BoJ tolerance limits JPY gains.
Impact: Neutral to bullish, favoring CHF resilience.
╰┈➤Economic Growth:
Switzerland: GDP growth ~1.2% (2025 estimate), steady due to banking and pharma sectors, despite Eurozone slowdown.
Japan: GDP ~1%, export-driven (e.g., U.S. tariff diversion), but domestic weakness persists.
Impact: Mildly bullish, CHF edges out JPY in stability.
╰┈➤Safe-Haven Flows:
Both CHF and JPY are safe-havens, but CHF benefits more from European risks (e.g., Eurozone PMI at 46.2, Feb 2025) vs. JPY’s Asia-centric exposure.
Impact: Bullish for CHF/JPY in risk-off scenarios.
╰┈➤Trade Balance:
Switzerland: Surplus ~CHF 4B monthly, driven by exports (watches, pharma).
Japan: Surplus ~¥1.5T, but vulnerable to U.S. tariffs.
Impact: Neutral, both currencies supported.
🟠Macroeconomic Factors
A U.S.-focused lens with global context:
╰┈➤U.S. Influence: Fed rates at 3-3.5%, DXY ~100. A softening USD aids CHF/JPY upside, though Trump tariffs complicate flows.
╰┈➤Global Growth: 3% (Morgan Stanley), with China at 4.5% (slowing) and Eurozone at 1.2%. Risk-off favors CHF over JPY.
╰┈➤Commodity Prices: Oil at $70.44 (FXStreet) pressures Japan’s import costs, mildly weakening JPY.
╰┈➤Swiss-Specific: SNB may intervene if CHF/JPY surges past 170, capping gains.
╰┈➤Japan-Specific: BoJ’s yen tolerance limits JPY strength unless intervention occurs.
🟤Commitments of Traders (COT) Data
Hypothetical COT (mid-Feb 2025, CME):
╰┈➤Large Speculators: Net long CHF (30,000 contracts), net short JPY (150,000), suggesting CHF strength vs. JPY weakness.
╰┈➤Commercial Hedgers: Net short CHF (40,000), net long JPY (100,000)—exporters hedge JPY strength.
╰┈➤Open Interest: ~90,000 contracts (CHF/JPY futures), rising, indicating U.S. trader interest.
╰┈➤Key Insight: Speculative CHF longs signal bullish CHF/JPY bias, JPY shorts reinforce this.
🔴Market Sentiment Analysis
Includes retail, institutional, and corporate traders:
╰┈➤Retail Sentiment: U.S. retail traders likely 65% long CHF/JPY at 167.000 (hypothetical broker data), expecting safe-haven CHF gains. Contrarian risk if shorts pile in.
╰┈➤Institutional Traders: U.S./European funds (e.g., UBS, per Dec 2024) favor CHF (USD/CHF to 0.84 by 2025), neutral on JPY (USD/JPY to 145). Bullish CHF/JPY sentiment persists.
╰┈➤Corporate Traders: Swiss exporters hedge at 168-170; Japanese firms lock in JPY at 165-167, neutral stance.
╰┈➤Social Media: Trending bearish JPY setups, CHF favored in risk-off chatter.
╰┈➤Broker Data: U.S. IG sentiment ~60% long—mild overcrowding.
🟣Positioning Analysis
╰┈➤Speculative: U.S. longs target 170, shorts eye 165.
╰┈➤Retail Crowding: Longs at 167.500-168.000 risk a flush.
╰┈➤Institutional: Balanced, leaning bullish on CHF strength.
╰┈➤Corporate: Hedging stabilizes near-term moves.
🟢Overall Summary Outlook
CHF/JPY at 167.000 reflects CHF’s safe-haven edge over JPY amid U.S. tariff risks and global slowdown fears. Fundamentals (rates, inflation) and macro trends (risk-off, USD softening) favor CHF, backed by COT’s bullish CHF tilt. Sentiment (retail/institutional longs) and quant signals (price above SMAs) support upside, though SNB intervention looms. Short-term bullish to 168.50-170.00, medium-term range-bound with a bullish bias.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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GOLD 1-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown. check idea This chart represents the price action of Gold (CFDs) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of its meaning:
1. Trend Analysis
The chart highlights two previous price channels:
A bearish channel (left side) that ended in a breakdown, leading to a sharp drop in price.
A bullish channel (middle section) where the price recovered and moved upward.
After this movement, the price entered a sideways consolidation phase, as seen on the right side of the chart.
2. Key Levels
Support at 2,928.709: This level has acted as a floor where price has bounced multiple times.
Resistance at 2,942.358: This level is capping further upside movement.
3. Potential Market Scenarios
If the price breaks above 2,942.358, it could trigger a bullish continuation.
If the price breaks below 2,928.709, a bearish move may follow.
4. Trading Implications
Traders might look for confirmation signals at these levels to decide whether to enter long or short positions.
A breakout could offer momentum trading opportunities, while a failure to break might suggest more consolidation.
Would you like to discuss potential trade setups based on this chart?
Which pair to watch after Merz wins?The rise of the euro and German stocks reflects the market's response to Friedrich Merz's victory in the German legislative elections held on Sunday, February 23, 2025. This victory seems to herald a political shift towards increased government spending, bringing hope for boosting the struggling German economy. The euro experienced a notable recovery against the G10 currencies, rising by about 0.5% against the US dollar, supported by investor expectations that the new government will abandon the conservative financial approach.
Concurrently, the EUR/JPY pair appears poised for a short-term rise, reversing its previous downward trend to an upward one. Currently, this pair is trading at important support levels ranging between 156 and 156.7, enhancing the likelihood of continuing the upward trend and surpassing the recent corrective phase towards a target level of 159.832. It is important to note that this positive outlook will be invalidated if the price falls and closes daily below the 155.506 level.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Support at $86K – Will BTC Rebound?Bitcoin Price Analysis
1. Market Structure & Trend
The chart indicates a descending trendline, signaling a bearish market structure.
Price action is approaching a major support zone (~$86,000 - $88,000), highlighted in green.
The latest sharp drop suggests high selling pressure, but the support zone could act as a demand area where buyers may step in.
2. Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support Zone: $86,000 - $88,000 (green area).
Immediate Resistance: $90,000 - $92,000 (descending trendline).
Breakout Target: $96,000+ if Bitcoin breaks the trendline.
Read more: www.oxifinance.com
Analyzing the Australian Dollar: A Bearish Outlook for AUD/USDRecent developments in the Australian economy, particularly the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to trim its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, have sparked discussions among traders and analysts regarding the future trajectory of the Australian Dollar (AUD), especially in relation to the US Dollar (USD). This move, while anticipated, has implications that could shape market sentiment in the coming weeks.
RBA Rate Decision: Implications for AUD
The RBA's decision to cut the interest rate signals a cautious stance towards Australia's economic conditions. Although the RBA specified that this rate reduction should not be interpreted as the onset of a broader easing cycle, the act of lowering rates typically suggests underlying concerns about economic growth and inflation. Lower interest rates can diminish the attractiveness of a currency, as they often lead to lower yields on assets denominated in that currency.
In the current environment, where other central banks may be maintaining or raising rates to combat inflation, the RBA’s rate cut could position the AUD unfavorably against its peers. Traders may interpret this move as a reflection of economic weakness, prompting a more bearish sentiment toward the AUD in the forex market.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Supply Area and COT Report
Recent technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD pair has triggered a supply area, aligning with insights from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. The COT report illustrates that retail traders are predominantly holding long positions on the AUD, suggesting a potential mismatch between retail sentiment and market dynamics. When retail traders are heavily long, it can sometimes signal exhaustion in upward momentum, setting the stage for a bearish reversal.
Furthermore, forecasting models indicate the possibility of an emerging bearish trend for the AUD/USD pair. Given these elements confluence—the RBA’s rate cut, the transition into a supply area on the charts, and the current positioning of traders—the market may be primed for a bearish impulse.
In conclusion, the AUD appears to be facing headwinds in the near term. The recent rate cut by the RBA, coupled with retail traders’ long positions and our forecasting indicators suggesting potential bearish momentum, paints a challenging picture for the Australian Dollar. Traders should remain vigilant and prepared to act on signals that suggest a continuation of this bearish trend.
✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Gold's Resilience: A Bounce Back from Key Support Demand ZoneGold has rallied off a key demand area of support as the US Dollar peaked and then retraced. This precious metal is currently navigating challenges stemming from forecasts regarding US interest rates and ongoing economic policies tied to the Trump administration.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the US economy is in "remarkably good" shape, which has bolstered the Dollar while putting downward pressure on Gold. However, analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that smart money remains positioned on the long side, suggesting that there is still potential for upward movement in Gold.
Despite its recent performance, Gold appears to be in a relatively oversold position, supported by favorable seasonal trends that could lead to a bullish outlook. The current demand area presents a crucial opportunity for Gold to retrace and gain momentum once again, making it an interesting point of observation for traders looking to capitalize on potential price recovery.
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ALGOUSDT Facing a Major Reversal? Bears Ready to Take Over!Yello, Paradisers! Is ALGOUSDT about to take a sharp dive? The price is currently hovering around a key supply zone, struggling to push higher. With buyers failing to break through, the risk of a strong bearish rejection is increasing, signaling a potential short opportunity.
💎The market structure has shown a clear Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting a shift from an uptrend to a potential downtrend. Price remains below the 50 EMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. If sellers step in with force, the downside move could accelerate quickly.
💎Key downside targets are forming around 0.2188 and 0.1663, where the next major support zones lie. If the bearish scenario plays out, these levels could be reached sooner than expected. Any failure to reclaim higher levels will only strengthen the case for further declines.
This is where patience and discipline pay off. Market traps are everywhere, and only those who stay focused and trade smart will come out on top. Be ready for the move, Paradisers!
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NASDAQ has developped Rising wedge on 1 day time frame US Tech 100 CFD (NASDAQ) – Weekly Chart Analysis (Feb 25, 2025)
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis
The chart shows a clear uptrend but with a recent rising wedge breakdown, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern.
A strong rejection from all-time highs (~22,000) suggests that sellers are stepping in.
Key downside target: The chart highlights a possible 15-16% drop towards the 18,000-19,000 demand zone, marked in purple.
This area aligns with previous consolidation and strong support from mid-2023.
2. RSI & Momentum Analysis
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 54, showing neutral momentum but trending downward, indicating potential weakening of bullish strength.
If RSI drops below 50, it could confirm further downside pressure.
3. Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
22,000 - 22,200 (Recent highs and breakout failure)
21,700 - 21,800 (Minor resistance before further downside)
Support:
19,000 - 18,500 (First major support level, previous demand zone)
17,500 - 18,000 (Stronger structural support if decline accelerates)
4. Potential Trade Scenarios
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Setup)
If price fails to reclaim 21,700-22,000, the breakdown is confirmed, leading to a short opportunity with targets at 19,000 - 18,500.
Stop-loss: Above 22,000 (Invalidation of breakdown).
📈 Bullish Rebound (Less Likely)
If the index finds support around 19,000 and shows strong buying reaction, it could trigger a long opportunity back towards 21,500 - 22,000.
Confirmation: RSI bouncing from oversold levels & strong reversal candle.
5. Conclusion & Strategy
Bearish bias in the short term due to wedge breakdown.
Watching 19,000 - 18,500 for potential reversal or continuation lower.
Short-term traders: Look for confirmation before entering trades.
TIME TO ATTACK! INSTITUTIONS ARE ABOUT TO DROP GOLD HARD! 📌 Today’s Mission: Execute the Most Profitable Trade Setup with Ultra-High Confidence and Aggression! 😈💰🚀
📊 XAU/USD (GOLD) MASTER PLAN FOR TOTAL DOMINATION! 💎🔥
📌 CURRENT MARKET OVERVIEW – TIME TO ATTACK! 🚀📈
💲 Current Price: $2,941.50 - $2,942 💰🔥
🚀 High of the Day: $2,950 (Massive Resistance!) 😈
🛑 Major Resistance (R3): $2,950 - $2,952 – NO ENTRY ABOVE! 🚨
📉 Recently Broken Resistance (R2, now Support): $2,940 – If it breaks, SELL HARD! 🔥
📊 Key Dynamic Support (50 EMA): $2,935 – Target This for TP1! 💰
🔻 Psychological Support (S1): $2,925 – Final Destination for Bears! 😈💰
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✅ AGGRESSIVE SELL ENTRY: $2,941.50 - $2,942 (Wait for candle confirmation!) 🎯🔥
🚨 STOP-LOSS (Tight & Deadly): $2,946 (Above rejection zone – NO MERCY! 💀)
💰 TAKE-PROFIT TARGETS:
• 🎯 TP1: $2,935 (Smash Profits Early & Reassess! 💰)
• 🎯 TP2: $2,930 (Deeper Profits – Bulls Cry! 😈)
• 🎯 TP3: $2,925 (MAX PROFIT ZONE! FULL SEND! 🚀💰🔥)
🏦💎 INSTITUTIONAL ORDER FLOW ANALYSIS – SMART MONEY IS DUMPING! 📊🚀
✅ Strong Sell Orders Stacking Up Near $2,942 – Institutions Are Preparing a Liquidity Trap! 💀📉
✅ Market Makers Rejected Price from $2,950 – FAILING TO BREAK HIGHER! 😈🔥
✅ MACD & RSI Losing Bullish Momentum – TIME TO STRIKE! 🚀🚀🚀
✅ VWAP Shows Heavy Resistance – Expect a HARD DROP! 📉💰
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Fundamental Market Analysis for February 25, 2025 EURUSDThe rise in US inflation data last week triggered a new wave of risk aversion among investors. Now their attention is focused on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, which is expected later this week. Traders are hoping that the rise in US core inflation will quickly fade early in the year and not lead to a new protracted battle with ‘transitory’ inflation that will be too high for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to go for a rate cut. Market participants expecting a faster pace of Fed rate cuts in 2025 are already feeling the pressure as US President Donald Trump tries to ignite a global trade war. In addition, another spike in inflation could extinguish any remaining hopes of a rate cut. On Monday, President Trump repeated his threats of imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico, warning that the tariffs were still due to take effect ‘next month’ after he recently caved in to tariff pressure and granted deferrals to nearly all countries he has targeted for import taxes on their citizens.
German consumer price index (CPI) data as well as retail sales activity figures are also due out on Friday. The German data, which is an indicator of EU-wide data, is likely to attract the attention of some traders on Friday, but the key factor influencing the market will be PCE inflation in the US.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0500, SL 1.0550, TP 1.0400
Timing the Markets with Consumer SentimentBusinesses and producers around the world always cheer when U.S. consumer sentiment is in the 80 to 100 zone, as U.S. consumers play a big part in the global economic ecosystem.
The United States remains the largest consumer market in the world, but since the pandemic, this index has not recovered above the 80 level.
Does it mean that, there is a risks economy to enter into a recession?
How can we use this index to time our investments and trades?
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Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis Fundamental Overview Helle Guys Here Is My First Analysis On XAU/USD Keep Me Update In And Follow Me For More Instrutions Share Your thoughs In Comments Section
Gold is currently trading near the upper boundary of an ascending channel, approaching a key resistance zone after forming an all-time high. A potential pullback is expected from this level, with price likely to test the channel support around $2,914 - $2,900. As Per Our Target If the support holds, a bullish continuation may occur; otherwise, a breakdown could push gold toward the lower support zone around $2,840.
We should watch for price action near the channel support for potential buying opportunities. A break above the resistance could signal further upside momentum.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $2,970
Support: And Target $2,910 - $2,900
Lower Support: $2,840
Trade with proper risk management, as gold remains volatile with macroeconomic influences.
Guys Here Is My First Analysis On XAU/USD Keep Me Update In And Follow Me For More Instrutions Share Your thoughs In Comments Section Thanks
EuroStoxx50:Pulse of Europe Under Schnabel's Magnifying GlassBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
The EuroStoxx50 index, which brings together the 50 largest companies in the euro zone, is today at the epicenter of financial attention. In an environment marked by uncertainty and transformation, the appearance of European Central Bank (ECB) member Isabel Schnabel stands as one of the key events of the day, as her comments on monetary policy could determine the direction of the market. What follows is an analysis of how these factors intertwine and affect European equities. Isabel Schnabel's speech is particularly relevant for investors, as any hint on the future of interest rates can generate significant movements in the EuroStoxx50.
The expectation is whether the ECB will lean toward tightening policy or remain cautious in the face of a complex economic outlook. Schnabel's response will be interpreted as a barometer for adjusting investment strategies across the region.
In parallel, the performance of the EuroStoxx50 acts as a reflection of European corporate performance. The companies that make up this index cover sectors that are crucial to the eurozone economy, and their financial results are an indication of the resilience of the corporate fabric in the face of global challenges and changes in monetary policy. In this sense, the index not only summarizes the performance of large caps, but also synthesizes investor sentiment in a highly volatile environment.
Finally, European equities are directly affected by this changing scenario. With expectations about the ECB and fluctuations in corporate earnings, movements in the valuations of companies reflected in the EuroStoxx50 become more pronounced. Investors, attentive to the signals coming from both Schnabel's appearance and the evolution of economic indicators, will need to carefully weigh the impact on their portfolios to seize opportunities and manage risks in this dynamic European landscape.
Technical Analysis
Putting the magnifying glass on the chart we can see that since February 4th there has been a bullish breakout over its long term channel after piercing the 5,150 points touching highs at 5,544 points. The correction since February 19 seems to be reflecting a healthy corrective move which coincides with the RSI partially reducing the overbought level to 63.25% from 81.43% the other day. This week's political results in Germany may have been part of the key to this correction. These moves currently position the index in a very wide range uptrend. The middle of the range is around 5350 points. This value can be used as a pivot point to continue its ascent. If it does not hold this price zone, it could fall towards the 5,035 points being its previous support. It should be noted that the control point (POC) is located in the area of 4,900 points.
In short, today the EuroStoxx50 is the thermometer of the European market. Isabel Schnabel's appearance promises to offer valuable clues about the future of monetary policy, while the index's response and stock performance will reflect how companies are adapting to an ever-changing environment. This is a crucial day for those who wish to understand the pulse of the Eurozone economy and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
XAUUSD: 25/2 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3000, support below 2892.
Four-hour chart resistance 3000, support below 2921.
Gold operation suggestions: Gold fell first and then rose yesterday, ushering in a strong bull bottoming out and breaking through the high. The US market accelerated to break through the 2956 mark and was suppressed and fell back. It quickly fell and once broke through the 2940 mark to reach around 2930, stabilized and rebounded, and finally returned to 2950 and closed.
From the current 4-hour analysis, the support below continues to focus on the vicinity of 2921, and the short-term pressure above focuses on the 2950-55 line. Continue to sell high and buy low in this range, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Buy: 2930near. SL: 2925
Buy: 2921near. SL: 2915
Buy: 2892near. SL: 2888
Use small size, control risk
GOLD → Bullish structure. Emphasis on 2955FX:XAUUSD is still in consolidation, but the flat is gradually changing into an ascending triangle structure, which further explains the bullish interest in the market.
Gold price is consolidating near the record high of $2,956. Investors took a pause before a possible continuation of gains amid renewed trade war fears over Trump's statements on tariffs and controls on exports of Nvidia chips to China.
Weak risk sentiment and a rising dollar are holding back gold, but lower bond yields and expectations of Fed policy easing are supporting prices.
Gold will remain influenced by tariff negotiations and US consumer confidence data in the coming days
Resistance levels: 2940, 2954.5
Support levels: 2930.7, 2921
Local resistance at 2940 is ahead. If the bulls are able to consolidate above this area, we should wait for the growth and the retest of 2954.5.
2954.5 is a trigger, the breakdown of which will provoke the continuation of the bull rally.
But before that the consolidation between 2954 and 2940 may be formed. I don't exclude the flat support retest before further growth.
Regards R. Linda!
XRP DAILY XRP close to retesting the 1D 200 EMA for the first time since the US election. For now I can see a few key levels that create a smaller mini range made up of the DAILY RESISTANCE as the top, KEY S/R as midpoint and BULLISH ORDERBLOCK as the low which will coincide with the 1D 200 EMA soon.
- Current price action is extremely volatile so directionally it's difficult to tell where we are goin in the short term, but I would become interested at the extremes of the mini range.
- A LONG entry would be a more gradual revisit of the Bullish Orderblock and the 1D 200 EMA, that would be a great place to go long because the directional bias would be more clear and uncertainty cleared up.
- A SHORT would be a sweep of the supply zone and drop back into the mini range which would aim to go towards the midpoint and then range low/ 1D 200 EMA.
In general the next few days will be volatile, FOMO will be huge but keeping rational is important.