#BICO(SPOT) entry range( 0.1900- 0.2390) T.(0.6399) SL(0.1790)BINANCE:BICOUSDT
entry range (0.1900- 0.2390)
Target1 (0.3899) - Target2 (0.6399)
1 Extra Targets(optional) in chart, if you like to continue in the trade with making stoploss very high.
SL .1D close below (0.1790)
*** collect the coin slowly in the entry range ***
*** No FOMO - No Rush , it is a long journey ***
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Fundamental Analysis
CHFJPY - Bearish TrendCHFJPY will start Bearish Trend as Bearish Divergence is formed?
Entry, Stop Loss & Take Profit are mentioned.
CHF Fundamentals: SNB is reducing policy rates since March 2024, SNB rate cut as from 1.25% to 1% recently may result in weak CHF.
JPY Fundamentals: BOJ is increasing policy rates since March 2024, which is causing continuous strength in JPY.
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments
Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September
The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant.
CEO Satya Nadella stated
“Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.”
This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant.
If you need a quick summary, here are three main points:
1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period.
2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025.
3. 👨👩👧👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results.
Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter.
Overview of today’s insights:
- New segmentation.
- Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview.
- Key earnings call highlights.
- Future areas to monitor.
1. New Segmentation
Revised Business Segments
In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management.
Summary of the main changes
- Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment.
-Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising.
-Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes.
-Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together.
Impact of These Changes:
Core Segments Overview:
In summary:
- The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly.
- The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue.
Products and Services Overview:
- M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services.
- Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category.
Additional Insights:
- Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed.
Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations.
2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance
Financial Summary:
-Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger.
New Product and Services Segmentation Results
- Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y).
- M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y).
- Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision.
- Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y).
- LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y).
- Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y).
- Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y).
- Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y).
- M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y).
Core Business Segments Breakdown:
- Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption.
- Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth.
- More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation.
Key Observations:
- Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y).
- Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth.
- Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25.
- Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25.
- Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter.
- Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q).
- EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet:
- Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y).
- Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion.
Q2 FY25 Outlook:
- Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens.
- Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%.
- More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro.
Main Takeaways:
- Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost.
- Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25.
- Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4.
- Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points.
- Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected.
- Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases.
Earnings Call Highlights:
Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake.
AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y.
M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly.
LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends.
Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6
Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth.
4. Future Outlook
Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably.
Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start.
Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry.
For further analysis stay tuned
NEAR SWING LONG OPPORTUNITY - NEAR ProtocolNEAR is one of the strongest blockchains in crypto. The network has proven itself by being around for over four years and is currently among the top 20 coins by market cap. It’s also a project I follow closely and look for trading opportunities with.
Technical Analysis: Price recently hit the monthly demand zone, sweeping daily equal lows without closing below. This indicates a liquidity grab through a wick and a subsequent break of the bearish trendline responsible for months of downtrend. Additionally, a weekly demand zone was created as the weekly structure shifted to bullish during the breakout.
Currently, price is within the weekly demand zone and is at a discount level in the optimal trade entry area, within the Fibonacci golden pocket.
I’ll be opening some swing positions here, targeting the first bearish upper trendline and, ultimately, the weekly swing high as marked on the chart. Stop loss is set below the monthly demand at 2.350.
PAGS in position for sweet buyAnother classical setup this time with PAGS
Young sexy bank from developing Brasillll, good Q-results and good forecasts but with one problem: too many passengers aboard ...
What to do? We need a superhero who can get reed of all them. And his name is Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley who says the stock is worth 6,5 USD. I personally think he does a great job and I am thankful for his famous opinion that prepared for me as well (as, I suppose, for his bank) a setup to buy into this nice asset.
BTC USDT Spot trade Bullish potential Bitcoin may see a potential pump starting from $69,100, with targets around $75,000 to $78,000. A breakout above $69,100 could signal bullish momentum, especially if accompanied by strong volume. Keep an eye on broader market indicators, as well as resistance levels approaching the target range. Consider a risk-managed entry with a stop-loss below $69,100 in case of reversal.
GBPUSD H4In the current GBPUSD situation, we can observe on the H4 time frame that the price has grabbed sell-side liquidity. We see inducement above, and there are two points of interest zones above as well. At this point, we can plan a buy trade by catching a potential reversal move, and we may also plan a with-trend sell trade from the upper zone for added opportunities.
DSONIC Potential uptrend to 0.56 in short term/ Long term 0.7653 Reason for holding this stock :
DSONIC provided a sustain dividend around 6+ % annually
Technical analysis show it trading around the demand zone, I believe it was the opportunity for Buy
Continues growth on company profit since 2021
Short Term TP on 0.56 with 30% capital gain ( expected TP within 6 month )
Long Term TP on 0.765 with 77% capital gain ( Expected TP within 3 years )
7% per annual * 3 = 21%
77 % capital gain + 21% per annual = 98%
98% / 3 years = 32.67% per annual.
Record for holding
200 lots for short term
200 lots for Long Term
SHORT TERM PULL BACK - EXPECT BOUNCE TO 3,000 End of the month was text-book played and the market cut a chance of profits they've had all year long.
That does not mean the trend is over or there will be a change in major direction for gold.
Expect a short term bearish market illusion carefully designed by the algorithms and smart money, to induce sellers more and more.
Expect very "perfect resistance" levels being created (ENGINEERED LIQUIDITY), where retail sellers are going to be pacing all of their short stops (which are actually buy stop orders).
Once the market reaches a strong enough psychological level (I personally believe it's going to be 2600), than smart money will buy back all of the retail short positions to target all time highs above 2800.
-
GOOD LUCK,
Insider stock playi’m glad that they’re finally making insiders and politicians post their stocks. I found this little gem and doubled my money two times. I wish I held on longer this time. I just have to wait till it drops again. But you know electric car, batteries, cell phones, they all need lithium.
Good financials
BEAR TRAP! - PULLBACK - 3000We've seen gold demand increase in China despite price showing rejection just under 2800 (at 2791).
US Elections uncertainty is what's causing smart money to secure profits for now, hedging with short positions to compensate possible sell-off.
Long-term trend is your friend: BULLISH.
No US presidential candidate is going to save the world from what's happening, and, sadly, is only going to get worse...
FED rates are starting to drop TOO MUCH TOO FAST. .. and that has only and always led to a recession and a big correction in the markets.
The US bank unrealized LOSSES are 7% HIGHER than the 2008 housing bubble.
The US stock market's greed indicator is HIGHER than before the 2008 collapse.
...
We could go on with a bunch of economic, geopolitical, social, and humanitarian statistics, that are only pointing south for the world's health and stability. Gold has always and will always be the true product of value on the planet and it has finally broken through to its true worth in the market; which, by the way, is WAY MORE than just $3,000 per Oz.
Do NOT fall for the pull-back, and buy the dip to what's only getting started.
...
I am not a financial advisor. Every post I make is for my personal use with educational purposes. You are responsible for your own trading decisions. Trading the financial markets involves a high risk of loosing all of your money.
News Failure and Favorable Winds for Chinese StocksFundamentals & Sentiment
CN50A:
- PBOC has officially ramped up support for the stock market, relending facility launched
- Couldn't hold lower after bad Industrial profits release
USD:
- De-escalation sentiment after the attack on Iran
Technical & Other
Setup: S(RTF)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Sideways
Long-term: Up
Min target: Local high
Stop loss: 0.9%
Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit
Buy Limit
BTC - Ranges overview We've gotten some interesting pa on BTC since our last post so let's see how we play from here.
We've taken out some buyside liquidity around 73K and we've attempted to create new all time highs. BTC is yet to hit 74K and eventually price higher towards 75K and 80K.
As long as we respect the FVG (yellow box) expect us to trade between 70K-73K.
IF we fail to hold the current highs expect some retracement towards 70K.
IF we hold the current levels and break above the FVG expect us to aggressively trade towards new all time highs.
No need to front run the market or over-leverage your positions. WAIT FOR THE MARKET TO SHOW YOU ITS HAND AND TRADE WITH THE MARKET.
Stay safe and never risk more than 1-5% of your capital per trade. The following analysis is merely a price action based analysis and does not constitute financial advice in any form.
Increase the difficulty level on yourself. Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more".
Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis.
If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out.
Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market"
Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden.
Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets).
1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise).
You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second.
When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways.
The second rule;
Each trend has three phases:
Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion.
Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase)
Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit.
This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap.
Then, the 3rd rule.
The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news).
4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend.
(I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.)
Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend.
As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.)
You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles.
The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall.
In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift.
Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest"
We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame.
At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down.
Something like this;
You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Second Attempt - News Failure And Follow-Through Tactical PlayFundamentals & Sentiment
GBP:
- The pair didn't hold lower after the negative CPI this week
- Strong Retail Sales today
- There's still a miniscule chance that the rate will be unchanged
- Biggest carry currency
USD:
- Shrugged off good US data yesterday
Technical & Other
- Entered 3m after the Retail Sales release
- Failed breakout below 1.3 on D
Setup: TR(B)
Setup timeframe: 1h
Trigger: 5m
Medium-term: Down
Long-term: Up
Min target: Local high
Stop loss: 0.18%(max, partial cuts are expected)
Position size: 0.5R