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NAS100 - Nasdaq index path, after the inauguration!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply range will provide us with the conditions to sell it. As markets prepare for Donald Trump’s inauguration, the dollar has weakened slightly. Early signals suggest that no significant changes in tariff policies are imminent, leading to a minor dip in the dollar’s value. Over the weekend, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a positive conversation. Following the call, Trump tweeted, “Just had an excellent conversation with Xi Jinping of China. This was very good for both China and the U.S. I expect us to solve many issues together, and we’ll start immediately.” Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Technology Index has reached its highest level in two years. Bloomberg data shows the 30-day correlation index between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq stands at approximately 0.70, indicating closely aligned movements between the two assets. On another front, Jared Bernstein, head of Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, has warned that the incoming Trump administration’s potential interference in Federal Reserve interest rate policies could risk a resurgence in inflation. Bernstein emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed’s independence and noted that executive actions should not influence interest rate decisions. TD Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady during the first half of this year. However, it expects rate cuts to resume in the second half, with the terminal rate reaching the low 3% range. This strategy reflects the economy’s need to digest Trump’s new policies, particularly on tariffs and immigration. This week’s economic calendar is relatively light.Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed on Monday, January 20, 2025, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Later in the week, key economic data will be released. On Thursday, the U.S. weekly jobless claims report will be published, followed by preliminary S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and existing home sales figures on Friday. Bank of America forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 4.75% this year, with the potential to surpass 5% depending on Federal Reserve decisions. However, it sees a low probability of yields exceeding 5.25%. The bank cites a strong macroeconomic backdrop and a hawkish Federal Reserve, suggesting that any rate hikes will depend on inflation data. Bank of America also notes that yields near 5% could represent a compelling buying opportunity, provided the Consumer Price Index remains stable or declines slightly.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
XRP Set to Explode: The Bull Run Everyone’s Been Waiting For!XRP is showing strong potential for a significant rally, supported by positive fundamentals, Ripple's ecosystem growth, and a clean technical setup. Here's why this trade looks highly favorable: 1. Pro-Crypto Momentum from U.S. Administration 🏛️ The incoming U.S. administration, led by President-elect Donald Trump, has introduced a clear pro-crypto agenda: Regulatory Clarity: Plans to promote crypto-friendly policies that enhance adoption and innovation. Strategic Support: Positioning the U.S. as a global leader in blockchain and digital assets, bolstering investor confidence in major cryptocurrencies like XRP. This shift in the regulatory landscape is a bullish catalyst for the broader crypto market, with XRP positioned to benefit significantly. 2. Ripple's Ecosystem Expansion 🌐 Ripple continues to drive adoption and utility for XRP through innovative developments: Native Smart Contracts: Expanding XRP's functionality to support decentralized applications and enterprise use cases. Stablecoin Integration: Enhancing XRP's role in cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi). These advancements solidify XRP’s position as a leader in utility-driven crypto assets, attracting both retail and institutional interest. 3. Technical Setup: Bullish Flag Formation On the 2-hour chart, XRP/USD has formed a textbook bullish flag, a continuation pattern signaling further upside: Entry: Buying now at $3.01. Take Profit Levels: TP1: $3.22 TP2: $3.50 TP3: $4.00 4. Broader Market Sentiment 📈 Bitcoin’s Rally: Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 has brought bullish momentum to altcoins, with XRP following suit. Analyst Predictions: Short-term targets for XRP are at $4.50-$5.25, fueled by both technical patterns and market optimism. What’s your take on XRP’s potential? Are we about to hit $4.00 and beyond? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
COINBASE:XRPUSDLong
by ValchevFinance
1
XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Prices Poised for a New TrendXAU/USD Analysis: Gold Prices Poised for a New Trend Although today is a public holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Jr. Day), financial markets are unlikely to remain calm, as traders and investors will be closely watching the inaugural speech of Donald Trump, the 47th President-elect, scheduled for 20:00 GMT+3. Trump's speech could impact gold prices in USD, particularly if it addresses: → Monetary policy: With current Federal Reserve rates trending lower, non-yielding assets like gold may become more attractive. → International trade: If Trump’s remarks on tariffs are particularly bold, gold’s status as a “safe haven” asset could boost its appeal. → The dollar's value: Policies aimed at strengthening the USD and reducing national debt may influence gold prices inversely. Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart shows that gold prices are trading within a narrowing triangle: → The lower boundary is supported by the ascending channel that began in March 2024. → Resistance sits at $2,720 per ounce. Although this level served as support in October, bulls have struggled to break it since December (as indicated by the arrow). While bullish sentiment dominates the gold market (evident from the orange trend lines relevant for January), Trump’s speech could trigger volatility spikes. These fluctuations may shift the current sentiment balance and spark the formation of a new trend for XAU/USD. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
2
Buy Trade Idea: USD/JPY USD/JPY is currently showing signs of bullish momentum after bouncing off a key support zone near 154.00. The price has retested this significant demand zone and demonstrated rejection, indicating a potential reversal to the upside. Entry: 155.50 Stop Loss (SL): 154.00 Take Profit (TP): 161.50 As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:3, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective. This trade setup is based on a combination of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, investor sentiment, and retail sentiment.
Long
by Trade_Navigator010
What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do? The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets. What Is the January Effect? The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks. The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years. At its core, the January effect reflects a combination of behavioural, tax-related, and institutional factors. Broadly speaking, the phenomenon is linked to a surge in buying activity at the start of the year. After December, which often sees tax-loss selling as traders offload poorly performing stocks to reduce taxable gains, January brings renewed buying pressure as these funds are reinvested. Additionally, optimism about the new year and fresh portfolio allocations can amplify this trend. While the January effect was more pronounced in earlier decades, changes in trading patterns and technology have made it less consistent. Yet, it still draws attention, particularly from traders looking for seasonal trends in the market. Historical Performance and Data Studies have provided empirical support for the stock market’s January effect. For instance, research by Rozeff and Kinney in a 1976 study analysed data from 1904 to 1974 and found that average stock returns in January were significantly higher than in other months. Additionally, a study by Salomon Smith Barney observed that from 1972 to 2002, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in January stock market history by an average of 0.82%. However, the prominence of the January effect has diminished in recent decades. Some studies indicate that while January has occasionally shown strong performance, it is not consistently the well-performing month. This decline may be attributed to increased market efficiency and the widespread awareness of the effect, leading investors to adjust their strategies accordingly. Some believe that “as January, so goes the year.” However, Fidelity analysis of the FTSE 100 index from its inception in 1984 reveals mixed results. Out of 22 years when the index rose in January, it continued to produce positive returns for the remainder of the year on 16 occasions. Conversely, in the 18 years when January returns were negative, the index still gained in 11 of those years. Check how small-cap stocks behave compared to market leaders. Factors Driving the January Effect on Stocks The January effect is often attributed to a mix of behavioural, institutional, and tax-related factors that create a unique environment for stock market activity at the start of the year. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind this phenomenon: Tax-Loss Selling At the end of the calendar year, many traders sell underperforming stocks to offset gains for tax purposes. This creates selling pressure in December, especially on smaller, less liquid stocks. When January arrives, these same stocks often experience renewed buying as traders reinvest their capital, pushing prices higher. Window Dressing by Institutions Institutional investors, such as fund managers, often adjust portfolios before year-end to make them look more attractive to clients, a practice called "window dressing." In January, they may rebalance portfolios by purchasing undervalued or smaller-cap stocks, contributing to price increases. New Year Optimism Behavioural psychology plays a role too. January marks a fresh start, and traders often approach the market with renewed confidence and optimism. This sentiment can lead to increased buying activity, particularly in assets perceived as undervalued. Seasonal Cash Inflows January is typically a time for inflows into investment accounts, as individuals allocate year-end bonuses or begin new savings plans. These funds often flow into the stock market, adding liquidity and supporting upward price momentum. Market Inefficiencies in Small-Caps Smaller companies often experience less analyst coverage and institutional attention, leading to so-called inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can be magnified during the January effect, as increased demand for these stocks creates sharper price movements. Why the January Effect Might Be Less Relevant The January effect, while historically significant, has become less prominent in modern markets. A key reason for this is the rise of market efficiency. As markets have become more transparent and accessible, traders and institutional investors have identified and acted on seasonal trends like the January effect, reducing their impact. In financial markets, the more a pattern is exploited, the less reliable it becomes over time. Algorithmic trading is another factor. Advanced algorithms can analyse seasonal trends in real-time and execute trades far more efficiently than human traders. This means the potential price movements associated with the January effect are often priced in before they have a chance to fully develop, leaving little room for manual traders to capitalise on them. Regulatory changes have also played a role. For instance, tax reforms in some countries have altered the incentives around year-end tax-loss harvesting, one of the primary drivers of the January effect. Without significant December selling, the reinvestment-driven rally in January may lose its momentum. Finally, globalisation has diluted the January effect. With global markets interconnected, price trends are no longer driven by isolated local factors. International flows and round-the-clock trading contribute to a more balanced market environment, reducing the impact of seasonal trends. How Traders Respond to the January Effect in the Stock Market Traders often pay close attention to seasonal trends like the January effect, using them as one of many tools in their market analysis. While it’s not a guarantee, the potential for small-cap stocks to rise in January offers insights into how some market participants adjust their strategies. Here are ways traders typically respond to this phenomenon: 1. Focusing on Small-Cap Stocks The January effect has historically been more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Traders analysing this trend often look for undervalued or overlooked small-cap companies with strong fundamentals. These stocks tend to experience sharper price movements due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to seasonal buying pressure. 2. Positioning Ahead of January Some traders aim to capitalise on the January effect by opening a long position on small-cap stocks in late December, possibly during a Santa Claus rally, anticipating that reinvestment activity and optimism in January will drive prices up. This approach is not without risks, as not all stocks or markets exhibit the effect consistently. 3. Sector and Industry Analysis Certain sectors, such as technology or emerging industries, may show stronger seasonal performance in January. Traders often research historical data to identify which sectors have benefited most and align their trades accordingly. 4. Potential Opportunities Active traders might view the January effect as an opportunity for shorter-term trades. The focus is often on timing price movements during the month, using technical analysis to identify entry and exit points based on volume trends or momentum shifts. 5. Risk Management Adjustments While responding to the January effect, traders emphasise potential risk management measures. Seasonal trends can be unreliable, so diversification and smaller position sizes are often used to potentially limit exposure to downside risks. 6. Incorporating It Into Broader Strategies For many, the January effect is not a standalone signal but part of a larger seasonal analysis. It’s often combined with other factors like earnings reports, economic data, or geopolitical developments to form a more comprehensive approach. The Bottom Line The January effect remains an intriguing market trend, offering insights into seasonal stock movements and trader behaviour. While its relevance may have shifted over time, understanding it can add value to market analysis. For those looking to trade stock CFDs and explore potential seasonal trading opportunities, open an FXOpen account to access a broker with more than 700 markets, low costs, and fast execution speeds. FAQ What Is the Stock Market January Effect? The January effect refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing, and renewed investor optimism at the start of the year. What Happens to Stock Prices in January? In January, stock prices, especially for smaller companies, may experience an uptick due to increased buying activity, caused by a mix of factors, including tax-loss selling, “window dressing”, seasonal cash inflow, new year optimism, and market inefficiencies in small caps. However, this isn’t guaranteed and depends on various contextual factors. Is December a Good Month for Stocks? December is often positive for stocks, driven by the “Santa Claus rally,” where prices rise in the final weeks of the year. However, tax-loss selling, overall market sentiment and geopolitical and economic shifts can create mixed outcomes for the stock market, especially for small-cap stocks. Is New Year's Eve a Stock Market Holiday? No, the stock market is typically open for a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve. Normal trading hours resume after the New Year holiday. Which Months Could Be the Best for Stocks? According to theory, November through April, including January, have been months when stocks performed well. This trend is often attributed to seasonal factors and increased investor activity. However, trends change over time due to increasing market transparency and accessibility. Therefore, traders shouldn’t rely on statistics and should conduct comprehensive research. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
1
RAMA STEEL A MULTI BAGGER IN THE MAKINGRama Steel Tubes Limited has demonstrated notable developments recently: Sales Growth: In Q2 FY25, the company reported a sales volume of 50,921.67 tons, marking a 42.32% year-over-year increase and a 36.28% rise from the previous quarter. Green Energy Initiatives: Rama Steel Tubes has entered the renewable energy sector by partnering with Onix Renewable Ltd. to supply steel structures and single-axis trackers for solar projects. Additionally, the company incorporated a wholly-owned subsidiary, ONIX IPP Pvt. Ltd., to focus on green energy ventures. Market Performance: The stock has experienced significant movements, including a 38% surge over three sessions in September 2024, adding approximately ₹500 crore to its market capitalization. Financial performance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (Q2 FY25) is as follows: 1)Sales Volume: The company reported a sales volume of 50,921.67 tons in Q2 FY25, a 42.32% increase compared to 35,780.33 tons in Q2 FY24. 2)Revenue: The revenue for Q2 FY25 stood at ₹263.05 crore, up 29.37% from ₹203.33 crore in the same quarter the previous year. Rama Steel Tubes Limited has been actively reducing its debt levels over recent years, reflecting a strategic move to strengthen its financial health. Here's a detailed overview: 1)Total Debt: As of March 2024, the company's total debt stood at ₹144 crore, a 25.12% reduction from ₹193 crore in March 2023. 2) Debt-to-Equity Ratio: The debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.43 in March 2024 from 0.77 in March 2023, indicating a significant reduction in leverage. 3)Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio: The company has improved its Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio over the years, showcasing better debt management relative to earnings. These metrics highlight Rama Steel Tubes Limited's commitment to reducing debt and enhancing financial stability. ITS A REAL HIDDEN GEM 💎
NSE:RAMASTEELLong
by djneshit
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis Hello Dear traders! Must Support Me And Share Your Thoughts in comment section Date/20/Jan/2015 Current Price $1,01,500 Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar (USD) on an hourly timeframe. The price action is currently moving within an ascending channel, indicating a bullish trend. After a recent correction that tested the support area around $97,550, there is potential for a rebound towards the resistance area, with target points at $104,000Tp1) and $107,000 (Tp2). The highlighted support and resistance areas provide key levels for traders to watch as potential entry exit points. This setup suggests a continuation of the uptrend unless a breakdown below the lower support level occurs. NOTE: This Ananlysis For educational purposes only
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by NicolusFrank
Dogegov ($DOGEGOV): Another 100% + returnI spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more. ---SEE MY PREVIOUS ANALYS ON PREVIOUS ENTRY--- Dogegov ( KUCOIN:DOGEGOVUSDT ): Awaiting Optimal Entry Amidst Recent Developments Trade Setup: - Entry Price: $0.12455 (Pending Activation) - Stop-Loss: $0.08754 - Take-Profit Targets: - TP1: $0.27494 - TP2: $1.01000 Current Price: $0.23538 Recent Developments: - Department of Government Efficiency ( KUCOIN:DOGEGOVUSDT ): President-elect Donald Trump has announced the formation of the Department of Government Efficiency, abbreviated as DOGE, to be led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. This initiative aims to streamline government operations and reduce wasteful expenditures. - Market Reaction: Following the announcement, Dogecoin's value has surged, reflecting increased investor interest and market optimism. Technical Analysis: - Support Levels: Immediate support is observed around $0.20000, with stronger support near the anticipated entry price of $0.12455. - Resistance Levels: Key resistance is identified at $0.30000, aligning with TP1, and a significant psychological barrier at $1.00000, just below TP2. - Moving Averages: The 50-day EMA is trending upwards, indicating sustained bullish momentum. - Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 70, suggesting overbought conditions; a potential pullback to the entry price is plausible. Market Sentiment: The convergence of cryptocurrency culture with political developments has heightened interest in $DOGEGOV. The symbolic association with the Department of Government Efficiency has attracted both crypto enthusiasts and mainstream investors, contributing to increased trading volumes and positive sentiment. Risk Management: The proposed stop-loss at $0.08754 limits downside risk to approximately 30% from the entry point. TP1 offers a potential gain of 121%, while TP2 presents an opportunity for a 711% return, indicating a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for this trade setup. Conclusion: The intersection of recent political announcements and the cryptocurrency market has created a unique opportunity with $KUCOIN:DOGEGOVUSDT. Awaiting a retracement to the entry price of $0.12455 could provide an advantageous position to capitalize on potential upward movements, supported by current market sentiment and technical indicators. When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All! *Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.*
Long
by SiriusTrading
21
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/03]: Uptrend to PersistSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 6.75/ton higher by 17/Jan (Fri). SGX IO Futures opened at USD 97.40/ton on 13/Jan (Mon) and closed at USD 104.15/ton on 17/Jan (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 104.20/ton on 17/Jan (Fri) and a low of USD 97.40/ton on 13/Jan (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 6.80/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week. Prices opened near the pivot point of USD 97.50 and closed above the R4 point of USD 104.05 at the end of the week. Volume peaked on 17/Jan (Fri), as prices hit new highs due to China’s stronger-than-expected economic recovery. Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary IO prices began the week on an uptrend as IO prices rose in early Asian trade, driven by strong Chinese trade data, robust iron ore imports, and optimism around China's stimulus measures and fiscal strength. Despite the week's rally, economists caution that the rise is sentiment-driven rather than fundamental. Falling Chinese steel demand and potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could continue to weigh on raw material prices. IO prices rose throughout the week as China’s GDP (Q4) edged up 5.0% YoY and Industrial production (Dec) increased by 6.2% YoY. China's port IO stockpiles grew by 0.3 million tons (0.2%) WoW to 146.63 million tons for the week ending 17/Jan, according to MMI data . Along with rising port inventories, the Housing prices (Dec) dropped by 5.3% YoY. With implied vols at multi-year lows, expectations for significant near-term movement remain limited after a strong second week of 2025. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Feb contract trades 19.4% below its last 5-year average (USD 128.93/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Shows Bullish Trend Amid Golden Cross Formation The formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) indicates that the bullish trend may be sustained in the near term. Prices gained upward momentum early this week and continued to rise throughout the week. Long-Term Averages Signals Possible Consolidation near 200-day MA IO prices crossed the 100-day MA and closed slightly below the 200-day MA. This indicates the strengthening of the bullish trend as prices near the 200-day MA, with prices consolidating at this level next week. MACD signals Bullish Momentum but Potential for Consolidation Emerging The MACD signals a positive momentum starting from 14/Jan. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 63.46, in the overbought zone, and hovers way above the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 45.13. Volatility Declined; Price Closed Above 38.2% Fibonacci Level Volatility rose through the week but dipped by the end. Prices broke the resistance levels of 23.6% Fibonacci level (USD 100.35/ton) and the 38.2% Fibonacci level (USD 103.20/ton) during the week. Going forward, the 50.0% Fibonacci level at USD 105.45/ton will act as resistance while the 38.2% level at USD 100.35/ton will act as the support. Buying Pressure Intensified, Prices Near Mid of High & Low Volume Nodes Buying pressure has grown stronger from the start of this week according to the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator. The price is trading near the mid of high & low-volume nodes. Price closed the week near the Upper Bollinger Band. IO Prices Rise Towards CNY & Then Decline Thereafter Between 2021 & 2024, SGX IO futures prices have risen leading up to the Chinese New Year before tapering off ten trading days after the holiday. Prices declined before & after the CNY holidays only in 2024 while prices continued to rise even after CNY before falling sharply in 2021 & 2022. A similar trend is observed in the first three days of the ten days leading up to CNY 2025. IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIIs) and Physicals participants are net long with 159.5k and 20.3k lots across all futures expiries. Managed Money participants and Others are net short with 166.9k and 12.8k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed money increased net short positions last week, while FIIs increased their net long positions. Physicals switched from being Net Short to Net Long over the week as of 10th Jan 2025 relative to the previous week. Overall futures open interest as of 10/ Jan stood at 1,107,236 lots (4.1%) while it was 1,063,467 lots as of 03/Jan. Source: SGX IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIIs) and Physicals participants are net long with 154.1k and 24.8k lots across all futures & options expiries. Managed Money participants and Others are net short with 170.9k and 8.1k lots respectively across all futures & options expires. Managed money increased net short positions last week, while FIIs increased their net long positions. Physicals switched from being Net Short to Net Long over the week as of 10th Jan 2025 relative to the previous week. Overall futures & options open interest as of 10/ Jan stood at 1,372,286 lots (+4.4%) while it was 1,314,185 lots as of 03/Jan. Source: SGX Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants Physical participants have switched from net short to net long over the last week. Managed Money transitioned from net long to net short positions in the last three weeks, signaling a notable shift in market sentiment. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of this year. Source: SGX Hypothetical Trade Setup Optimism around China's improving narrative ahead of the Chinese New Year has bolstered sentiment. Iron ore prices have climbed sharply, buoyed by a brighter outlook on recent stimulus measures. As trend-followers drive momentum, medium to longer-term fundamentals will likely take a backseat in the short term. Technical indicators present mixed signals, with bullish signs such as a golden cross formation in short-term moving averages and prices trading near the upper Bollinger Band, alongside consolidation signals like RSI slightly above neutral and prices nearing long-term moving averages. Against this bullish momentum backdrop, this hypothetical trade setup involves entering a long position at USD 103.5/ton with a take profit level at USD 108.00/ton combined with a stop loss at 100.8/ton resulting in a 1.67x reward-to-risk ratio. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Long
by MintBulkCommods
ZEN: Harmonic Pattern & Bullish Divergence on 1H ChartAnalysis Overview: ZEN is currently in a downtrend but is forming a potential Harmonic Pattern on the 1-hour timeframe. This is accompanied by Bullish Divergence, which suggests a possible trend reversal to the upside. For a confirmed bullish trend, we need a decisive breakout above the previous Lower Highs (LHs). Once this occurs, the price structure may shift, forming Higher Highs (HHs) and Higher Lows (HLs), reinforcing a bullish outlook. Trading Plan: Entry Trigger: Wait for a breakout above the previous LHs as confirmation. Risk Management: Use a well-defined stop-loss level below the recent swing low to minimize risks. Target: Gradually scale into the position as HHs and HLs form, aiming for key resistance levels. Note: Always adhere to your trading plan and risk management rules. Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
Long
by mudusir
Gold cools as fighting eases in GAZA#️⃣ The Israeli Prime Minister officially announced that he will ratify the ceasefire agreement in Gaza! Trump repeated: I have merit ———— ⭐️Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that the ceasefire agreement with Hamas has been completed and will take effect on Sunday, right before Donald Trump takes office as US president. ✔️The agreement brokered by Biden, Trump and Qatar includes: Hamas will release 33/98 hostages, Israel will withdraw troops from Palestinian residential areas and release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. ➡️Trump asserted that this agreement would not have been possible without his participation, while Biden emphasized his desire for a long-term ceasefire to stabilize the region. 🔴 There are many mixed opinions within Israel: the extreme right wing opposes the agreement, while the Israeli stock market increased sharply by 4.4% last week due to positive expectations from the agreement. Political Situations Are Calming Down as Trump Takes Office, Cooling Down Gold Moving Investors Money to Crypto Market, Hottest Place Right Now
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
EUR/USD: Pre-Inauguration OutlookThis video is educational and not an analytical report. I share my perspective on the market, explain what to focus on, and provide a brief outlook on the future price movement. Today, EUR/USD continues its range-bound movement for the fourth day in a row. I believe this range may persist until the inauguration, or we might see a strong breakout precisely during that event. Watch the video, enjoy it, and feel free to ask questions — I’ll be happy to share more insights and discuss your ideas! #EURUSD #Forex #MarketAnalysis #Inauguration #Trading #Forecast #Finance #TradingEducation
by zibr-a
BITCOIN → Correction before further flight to 112-120KBINANCE:BTCUSD surprises everyone again with this week's rally. After retesting the panic and risk zone, when many started selling, the price turned around and flew 18% in a few days.... One week old idea: BITCOIN → Retest of key support. What can happen? There could be several factors behind the gains that have been forged over the past 3 days: New reports point to increased activity from major players, including institutional investors, Trump's upcoming inauguration, the crypto community is expecting the new president to take active steps. And overall, the bullish three-day run is a combination of macroeconomic factors, technical breakdown and fundamental confidence in the future of cryptocurrencies. All of this created a strong bullish momentum that attracted new buyers and increased institutional investor interest. From a technical perspective, the 100K and 102.5K area plays an important role for me. If the bulls can keep the price above this zone, the growth will continue in the medium term. Support levels: 102.5K, 100K Resistance levels: 103.6K, 105.7K, 107.5K Technically, at the moment, a pre-breakdown situation is forming on H1 against the support at 102.8. Accordingly, bitcoin may form a correction to both 100K and 97.5K. But, if the fall will quickly recover or the bulls will keep the defense above 100-102.5K, then further we can count on growth up to 108-112K. Regards R. Linda!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by RLinda
12
Can the Yuan Dance to a New Tune?In the intricate ballet of global finance, the Chinese yuan performs a delicate maneuver. As Donald Trump's presidency introduces new variables with potential tariff hikes, the yuan faces depreciation pressures against a strengthening U.S. dollar. This dynamic challenges Beijing's economic strategists, who must balance the benefits of a weaker currency for exports against the risks of domestic economic instability and inflation. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is navigating this complex scenario with a focus on maintaining currency stability rather than aggressively stimulating growth through monetary policy easing. This cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to manage expectations and market reactions in an era where geopolitical shifts could dictate economic outcomes. The PBOC's recent moves, like suspending bond purchases and issuing warnings against speculative trades, illustrate a proactive stance in controlling the yuan's descent, aiming for an orderly adjustment rather than a chaotic fall. This situation provokes thought on the resilience and adaptability of China's economic framework. How will Beijing reconcile its growth ambitions with the currency's stability, especially under the looming shadow of U.S. trade policies? The interplay between these two economic giants will shape their bilateral relations and influence global trade patterns, investment flows, and perhaps even the future of monetary policy worldwide. As we watch this economic dance unfold, one must ponder the implications for international markets and the strategic responses from other global players.
Long
by UDIS_View
Eurogroup and Trump: Economic challenges in 2025The Eurogroup has kicked off the year with a strategy meeting in Brussels, coinciding with the inauguration of Donald Trump for his second term as president of the United States. The meeting, chaired by Paschal Donohoe, seeks to address the Eurozone's main economic challenges, including climate change, disruptive technologies and geopolitical uncertainties, with a special focus on transatlantic relations. Spain, represented by Minister Carlos Cuerpo, sees this meeting as key to strengthening European unity in the face of possible changes in U.S. policy. In addition, the forum will discuss innovations in wholesale payments and advances in the digital euro, reflecting its commitment to financial modernization. On the other hand, although outside the official agenda, France's fiscal deficit assessment will be highlighted, as it seeks to reduce it to 5.4% of GDP by 2025. The Eurogroup starts the year balancing internal and external priorities in a context of high global uncertainty. The Eurogroup meeting and Donald Trump's inauguration may have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair, as both events generate uncertainty and expectations in financial markets. 1. Transatlantic relations and geopolitics: Trump's policies could influence U.S.-European trade and economic relations. If there is a perceived protectionist stance or increased tensions, this could weaken the euro against the dollar as investors seek safer assets in the US. 2. Technological innovations and the digital euro: Developments discussed at the Eurogroup, such as the digital euro, could build confidence in the modernization of the European financial system. This, in the medium and long term, could strengthen the euro if markets interpret that Europe is making progress in its financial competitiveness. 3. Fiscal policy in Europe: The lack of consensus on fiscal plans, as in the case of France, could raise concerns about economic stability in the Eurozone. This could put downward pressure on the euro if markets perceive that fiscal policies are not sufficiently sound. 4. Market sentiment: If the Eurogroup meeting shows unity and defines clear strategies in the face of global challenges, the euro could strengthen against the dollar. However, any sign of internal disagreement could be interpreted negatively, affecting the EUR/USD. Technical Analysis EUR/USD 1. Trend: Sideways consolidation with possible breakout. 2. Supports: 1.02603 and 1.1809 (key). 3. Resistances: 1.03303, 1.03524 (key). 4. Indicators: o RSI at 60.99% slight oversold. o MACD has crossed Signal softened at 2am. o 50 moving average has crossed with the 100 today at 6am. On track to cross with the 200 to indicate possible uptrend. 5. Scenarios: o On the upside: Breaking 1.0900 may lead to 1.1000. o Down: Losing 1.0800 points to 1.0730. 6. Key: In summary, the impact on EUR/USD will depend on expectations about Trump's policy and the markets' perception of the Eurogroup's ability to address economic and geopolitical challenges. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
by ActivTrades
NZD/CHF "Kiwi vs Swissy" Forex Market Heist Plan on Bullish🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the NZD/CHF "Kiwi vs Swissy" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A bull trade can be initiated on the MA level breakout of 0.51300. However I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 0.52100 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ the NZD/CHF is expected to move in a bullish direction. REASONS FOR BULLISH TREND: New Zealand's Economic Growth: New Zealand's economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than Switzerland's, driven by a strong labor market, increasing consumer spending, and a rebound in the dairy sector. Interest Rate Divergence: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep interest rates steady, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its negative interest rate policy, which will lead to a widening of the interest rate differential between the two currencies. Commodity Prices: New Zealand is a major commodity exporter, and the recent increase in commodity prices, such as dairy and meat, is expected to boost the country's export earnings and support the NZD. Swiss Franc Safe-Haven Status: The Swiss Franc is often considered a safe-haven currency, but its safe-haven status is expected to be challenged by the strengthening of the US Dollar and the Euro, which will lead to a decrease in demand for the CHF. Technical Analysis: The technical analysis for NZD/CHF is currently bullish, with the price trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Fundamental Valuation: The NZD/CHF is currently undervalued based on fundamental valuation models, such as the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model, which suggests that the currency pair is due for a correction. Market Sentiment: The market sentiment for NZD/CHF is currently bullish, with many traders and investors expecting the currency pair to rise. Seasonal Trends: The seasonal trends for NZD/CHF are currently bullish, with the currency pair typically rising during the summer months. MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish Sentiment: 60% Bearish Sentiment: 30% Neutral Sentiment: 10% Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Long
by Thief_Trader
FIRE Plays: Riding the Uptrend Wave with Precision! Hey Traders! 👋 The market is heating up, and emotions are running high. Greed is in the air, and it’s time to channel that energy into smart, calculated moves. Let’s talk about a setup that’s too good to ignore—a classic uptrend channel that’s screaming opportunity. But remember, even in the heat of the moment, discipline is key. Here’s how to play it: The Setup: Uptrend Channel in Focus 📈 We’re looking at a beautifully improving uptrend channel, and price action is respecting those levels like clockwork. The higher highs and higher lows are telling us one thing: the bulls are in control. But don’t let FOMO (fear of missing out) cloud your judgment. This is where strategy trumps emotion. Key Levels to Watch 🎯 6.100 Level – The Profit Zone 🚀 This is where the party could start to wind down. As price approaches 6.100, it’s time to tighten those stops and consider taking profits. Greed can turn into regret real quick if you overstay your welcome. Lock in those gains and live to trade another day. Support Zones – The Safety Nets 🛡️ 5.922: The first line of defense. If price pulls back here, it could be a healthy retracement before the next leg up. 5.835: The second support level. A bounce here could signal another buying opportunity, but tread carefully. 5.740 – The Correction Zone ⚠️ If price dips to this level, it’s time to reassess. This could be a deeper correction, and you don’t want to get caught in a reversal. Stay patient and wait for confirmation before jumping back in. Why This Works 🧠 This setup plays on the two most powerful emotions in trading: greed and fear. The uptrend channel fuels the greed, tempting you to ride the wave higher. But the key levels act as a reality check, reminding you to stay disciplined and protect your capital. It’s a balancing act, and this strategy keeps you on the right side of the trade. The Bottom Line 💡 The market is a battlefield of emotions, and right now, greed is leading the charge. But smart traders know when to strike and when to step back. Keep an eye on that 6.100 level—it’s your cue to take profits. And if price dips to the support zones, wait for confirmation before making your next move. Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and let’s make those FIRE plays! 🔥 What do you think? Are you riding this uptrend or waiting for a pullback? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly. #TradingView #UptrendChannel #SmartTrading #GreedAndFear #TradeLikeAPro
SP:SPXLong
by stocksfox
Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments“Gold is money. Everything else is credit” said John Pierpont Morgan some 100+ years ago. Gold is limited in supply. Much of what can be mined has been dug up. Gold bugs opine that the only way for gold prices is up as fiat money continues to be printed with nothing but institutional promises backing them. As a result, not only is the price of gold inching up, but the value commanded by fiat money continues to contract. GOLD’S RISE HAS REMAINED UNSTOPPABLE DURING THE LAST TWO YEARS Gold, as represented by CME Gold Futures, was up 1.45x delivering a stunning 13.5% gain in 2023 followed by a record-shattering 27% gain in 2024. These stellar returns were delivered with a 20-day rolling realised volatility averaging south of 14% commanding a Sharpe Ratio of more than one. The World Gold Council analysis shows that gold outperformed US stocks, EM equities, bonds, and commodities. LBMA Gold prices surged by 25.5% while printing 40 all-time highs in 2024 with the most recent high of USD 2,777.80/oz on 30th October 2024. This remarkable growth was driven by strong demand from central banks and institutional investors combined with rising geopolitical risks. Source: gold.org After such a stunning rally these last two years, what to expect from gold in 2025? First, recapping the rationale for gold. GOLD REMAINS A HEDGE AGAINST SUSTAINED INFLATION, DEBASEMENT, & TRUST DEFICIT Gold has long been considered a safeguard against economic uncertainties, particularly during periods when confidence in financial institutions and government policies wanes. This perception is rooted in gold's intrinsic value and its independence from any single nation's economic policies, making it a preferred asset during times of trust deficit. Several factors have reinforced gold's role as a hedge against trust deficit, key among them being: • Geopolitical Tensions : Ongoing global conflicts and political instability have heightened investor anxiety, leading many to seek refuge in gold. Its value appreciates when geopolitical risks escalate, reflecting its status as a haven asset. • Fiscal Policies & Debt Levels : Concerns over rising national debts and fiscal deficits, particularly in major economies like the United States, have prompted investors to turn to gold. Analysts suggest that gold benefits from apprehensions about the trajectory of U.S. debt and deficits, serving as a buffer against potential fiscal crises. • Inflation & Currency Depreciation : Fears of inflation and currency devaluation have further increased gold's appeal. As a tangible asset, gold is perceived as a store of value that can preserve wealth against the eroding effects of inflation & currency debasement. Moreover, during periods of financial market volatility, gold has demonstrated its effectiveness as a portfolio diversifier. Its low correlation with other asset classes allows it to mitigate losses during market downturns, providing stability when trust diminishes. In summary, gold's enduring value and independence from centralized financial systems make it a reliable hedge against trust deficit. Investors seeking portfolio protection turn to gold as a haven. GOLD HAS HEADROOM TO RISE EVEN HIGHER IN 2025 State Street Global Advisors ("SSGA") cite three primary reasons for being bullish on Gold in 2025. These include (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India as domestic gold ETFs proliferate, and (c) US monetary easing and the potential for the new Trump administration’s fiscal policies to expand deficits. Central banks have been accumulating gold at the fastest pace in recent record. Consistent buying in the past three years despite surging prices point to long-term strategic considerations beyond price sensitivity. Gold’s inverse relationship with the US dollar remains misunderstood. The USD is as strong today as it was at the start of the century, while gold has appreciated 813% in the same period. A strong dollar does not necessarily make gold bearish. New Trump Administration to be sworn-in later today (20th Jan 2025) also serves as a tailwind to gold prices. During Trump 2.0, the President's proposed tariff policies are likely to accelerate the de-dollarisation trend and be compounded by rising geopolitical risks. Collectively, this will push central banks and consumers to seek shelter in gold. Source: SSGA.com SSGA has a base case scenario (with a 50% likelihood) of gold trading between USD 2,600 to USD 2,900 an ounce. It also sets out a bull case with a 30% chance of gold price ranging between USD 2,900 to USD 3,100 an ounce. A bear case alternative (20% chance) of gold prices pulling back to trade between USD 2,200 to USD 2,600 per ounce. GOLD ETF FLOWS HAVE BEEN ROBUST IN 2025 The GLD ETF has seen substantial positive inflows into the fund so far this year. Barring four days of net outflows, large inflows on 10/Jan and 17/Jan have contributed to additional AUM of USD 579.22 million into the GLD ETF taking the total AUM to USD 76.74 billion. Post-election results, the GLD ETF witnessed multiple days of fund outflows and those have been more than offset with fresh funds moving into the ETF signalling bullish investor sentiment. SEASONALITY FAVORS A BULLISH STANCE IN GOLD Save for February & June, Gold Futures have generated positive returns during the first half of the year delivering 6.6% upside gains on average over the last ten years. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP A confluence of fundamentals, seasonality, and sentiment points to near to medium-term bullishness in gold prices. This paper posits a hypothetical trade setup consisting of a long position in CME Micro Gold Futures contract expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025). Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces. Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively. • Entry: USD 2,754/oz • Target: USD 2,880/oz • Stop: USD 2,670/oz • P&L at Target (per lot): +1,260 ((2,880 – 2,754) x 10) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -840 ((2,754 – 2,670) x 10) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGCJ2025Long
by mintdotfinance