GBPJPY Rejected at Resistance - Bearish Move Ahead?GBPJPY Rejected at Resistance - Bearish Move Ahead?
On the 4-hour chart, GBPJPY tested a strong resistance zone near 196.40, and sellers quickly stepped in.
Over the last 12 hours, the price has moved consistently downward, confirming selling pressure in this area.
The formation of three consecutive red candles on the 4-hour timeframe adds value to the bearish outlook. GBPJPY could decline to 194.20, and possibly even further to 192.40.
⚠️PS: This trade carries high risk due to the uncertain stance of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policies.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Fundamental Analysis
Tariff policy reversed again? Be careful on Friday.Yesterday, Trump and the US Trade Court ruled that the US International Trade Court had stopped the tariff policy. Gold once fell to a low of 3245, while the US dollar rushed all the way to a high of 100.5. Then it reversed, and gold began to rectify and rise. As of now, it has once touched a high of 3330, close to a rebound of $85.
Today, it reversed again. The US Court of Appeals allowed Trump's tariff policy to continue to take effect temporarily. And impose tariffs on most areas of the global economy, including allowing tariffs of up to 15% within 150 days to address trade imbalances with other countries. Compared with the tariff policy that was deemed illegal this week, this step is more legally defensible.
Looking at the current gold, it is likely that gold will fall sharply today. After gold fell yesterday, everyone wanted to short gold, but gold rebounded all the way.
So, today, Friday, is an opportunity for short-selling strategies. The short positions have been eliminated, so gold has every reason to fall, and it will fall sharply.
Once it falls below 3280 in the downward trend, it will test the low point of yesterday near 3250. If it breaks through 3250 again, it will go directly to the low point near 3200. The current short-selling strategy has little to do with technical analysis, it is completely a test of human nature.
EURUSD on the riseEURUSD continues to move in line with expectations and gained over 100 pips yesterday.
This confirms the bullish trend and opens up opportunities for additional long positions.
The next targets, based on Fibonacci tools, are 1,1427 and 1,1563.
Watch for a potential pullback followed by a continuation of the uptrend.
Gold prices are likely to surge today for several reasons, but dGold prices are likely to surge today for several reasons, but do not expect a long-term rally just yet.
Technically, the price has tested the former resistance-turned-support level at 3250, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, and has completed a 3-wave minor structure.
After testing the 3250 level, the price rebounded significantly and broke the previous high, indicating a potential short-term uptrend in wave c of the broader wave B. This suggests that gold is currently forming a complex corrective wave, likely entering the final minor bullish wave before reversing downward once major wave B completes.
Fundamentally, a federal appeals court has temporarily halted a Wednesday decision by the Court of International Trade that had blocked President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit reinstated Trump’s power to enforce tariffs under emergency authority declared earlier this year.
This development deepens the uncertainty and confusion on US economic policies, which is putting pressure on the US dollar. This also reignites concerns over global trade and brings volatility to financial markets, prompting investors to return to safe-haven assets.
The PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released today. It will likely affect both the US dollar and gold prices.
The market expects the figure to ease to 2.2%, down from 2.3% previously. If the forecast is accurate, it would bring inflation closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target, increasing expectations of a potential rate cut. This would further weaken the dollar and could boost gold prices following the release.
* The current price retracement below 3300 following yesterday's surge is a "buy-on-dip opportunity," as bullish momentum remains intact.*
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
BTC WILL CRUSH. BTC ENTRY POINTAs we predicted on our last Analysis BTC exactly reacted and went the direction we wants.
So now if BTC first rejected from 106100-106700, Then we will see a opportunity to go short until 102k. If BTC didn't not respect 106100-106700, And went up with high volume then more likely reject from 107800-108500 above breaker FVG, From there we can go short only if we got rejected.
NOTE: we should wait for the confirmation, The confirmation will be Rejection from those two area.
Analysis: 1H
XAU/USD Awaits PCE Catalyst – Rejection or Breakout?Gold prices are trading around $3,297 after rejecting the $3,324 resistance zone. The market is currently showing signs of exhaustion near a minor resistance, and price action suggests a potential short-term pullback. Attention now shifts to today's U.S. Core PCE data, a key inflation metric for the Fed, which may dictate near-term direction and shape the monthly close.
OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD Gold tested the $3,324 resistance area but failed to break higher, forming a lower high. A potential bearish setup is developing as price reacts to minor resistance around $3,310. If bears regain control, a drop toward the key support level at $3,240 is likely. A break below this level could open the door to further downside in the upcoming sessions. Conversely, if bulls manage to reclaim $3,324 and establish a strong daily close above, we could see a retest of $3,350 and higher.
Key Event Today:
At 8:30 PM GMT+8, the U.S. will release April's Core PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge:
MoM: Expected at 0.1%
YoY: Expected at 2.5% (Previous 2.6%)
A softer-than-expected reading could increase rate cut expectations and offer bullish momentum to gold. Stronger data, however, may renew USD strength and pressure XAU/USD lower.
Resistance: $3,310 , $3,324
Support: $3,240 , $3,207
Gold price analysis on May 29Not beyond the previous analysis of the D candle confirming the decrease and maintaining the trend of the candle on May 27
After touching the breakout zone of 3257, Gold is reacting to increase again and there is a high possibility that there will be buying force in the market today
3275 is the reaction zone that Gold is facing in front of this increasing force when breaking 3275 will head to 3285 and this is an important breakout zone with a large number of sellers accumulating in this zone. Breaking 3285 is considered a temporary break of the downtrend and waiting for the next reaction zones for SELL strategies around 3302 and 3314
The support zones with a tendency to react to prices and are also targets for SELL signals are noted in the resistance zone of this morning's Asian session around 3256. Two notable support zones today for bottom-probing signals are noted around 3238 and 3220.
US100 Not yet ready for ATH - Structural BreakdownHere’s a detailed breakdown of the US Tech 100 - NASDAQ on the daily chart and why a lift off to ATHs may not be in play just yet.
✅ Key imbalance zones mapped out
🔻 Expecting downside clean-up before upside continuation
📊 FVGs & inefficiencies stacked below = high-probability revisit zones
If you’re trading NASDAQ, this map could be your cheat sheet before price makes its real move.
The market is respecting the ascending channel, but I’m expecting a cleanup of inefficiencies stacked below before any major continuation. Keep an eye on the key zones marked — price may revisit these areas for liquidity.
📉 Possible short-term correction
📈 Bias still bullish, but not without some pain first
Happy Trading !
USOIL – Reclaiming the Energy Narrative | WaverVanir Macro Rever📉 Chart Thesis:
After nearly three years of structural decline from the $129 peak, crude oil (USOIL) is approaching a confluence zone of historic Fibonacci support ($56–$60) and a multi-year descending trendline.
This zone may mark the bottom of a long-term accumulation phase.
🧠 Strategic Perspective (WaverVanir View):
“It’s time to take back our resource. Not just politically—but economically, institutionally, and structurally.”
WaverVanir International LLC sees this setup as a rare macro pivot. This isn’t about short-term fluctuations—it’s about the global realignment of resource value in a world where:
Central banks are overleveraged
Strategic petroleum reserves are drawn down
War premium is mispriced
Real assets are undervalued
📊 Key Levels:
Support Zone: $56.04 (historical institutional buy zone)
Breakout Trigger: Trendline above $67.00
Target 1: $101.35 (0.786 Fib)
Target 2: $129.42 (1.0 Fib)
Target 3: $160.58 (1.236 Fib projection)
⚠️ Risk Disclosure:
We are not yet capitalized but actively building a legally compliant funding vehicle. No capital is currently allocated. This post is part of our vision publication cycle to build trust and transparency in WaverVanir’s thesis.
📌 Follow WaverVanir International LLC for conviction-based macro trade ideas at the intersection of data science, price action, and risk strategy.
#USOIL #MacroTrading #Commodities #WaverVanir #TradingView #QuantMacro #EnergyRevolution #FibonacciAnalysis #MarketStructure #EmergingFund
GoldFxMinds – XAUUSD Battle Plan for May 30, 2025Hello, GoldMinds snipers!
Big news day ahead — Core PCE ). This is the kind of day where one news candle can change the whole game! Let’s get our sniper zones ready for both bullish rallies and bearish reversals.
⚡️ Macro & News Context
Core PCE is a Fed favorite: high-impact, high-volatility.
Gold just closed near 3317, high in premium territory — but market structure is coiled, not committed.
Any PCE surprise can send us flying… or dumping.
📈 If Price Stays Bullish / News is Dovish
3325–3335: First resistance, the "fortress wall."
If price clears and HOLDS above, next upside targets activate.
3348–3360: Next sniper zone above — historical supply, D1 OB, liquidity magnets.
A strong close above 3335 = bulls control. Watch for quick tests of this upper block.
If price breaks above 3360:
The next “wild zone” is 3378–3388 — untapped liquidity above all previous swings. Only super strong rallies reach here, so trail your stops tight if you’re long.
📉 If Price Reverses / News is Hawkish
3315–3305: Trap zone, choppy — avoid entries here.
3285–3295: Key H1 demand, look for bounce or structure reclaim.
3250–3260: Deep discount sniper zone.
Only buy if you see real reversal; if this breaks, expect panic to 3220 or even 3200.
🧠 Bias, Playbook, and Caution
Bias: Neutral but flexible.
Above 3335, bulls have momentum — look for breakouts.
Below 3285, sellers control the show.
Do not rush the first move after PCE.
Real direction comes after the volatility traps.
🏹 Battle Plan
Long only above 3335, with a confirmed breakout and volume.
Short only at supply zones (3325–3335 or 3348–3360) if you see strong rejection.
Never chase the spike. Wait for M5/M15 structure to confirm.
Trap zone (3305–3315): Sit on your hands. Let the bots fight.
🔥 Final Word
This is a two-way battle:
If gold rockets above, follow the flow — but don’t forget, every hero rally can be a trap!
If the bears win, be ready to strike on the drop.
Comment your bias (🚀 or 🔻), hit follow for the post-news recap, and trade like a sniper, not a gambler.
— GoldFxMinds 🟡🚨
Fed Minutes overshadowed by tariff uncertainty | FX ResearchUS equity futures are well bid ahead of the North American open, with S&P 500 minis up over 1.1% and the Nasdaq up 1.7%, partially driven by Nvidia's strong results and a US court ruling declaring some of President Trump's tariffs illegal. This has boosted risk sentiment by potentially supporting consumer spending and economic growth, although uncertainty remains as the ruling may face further scrutiny.
The FOMC minutes, largely overshadowed by this development, noted concerns about persistent tariff-related inflation. Economic data expected today includes jobless claims, projected to rise slightly, and a second reading of Q1 GDP, likely unchanged. April pending home sales are anticipated to drop by 1% month-over-month.
Fed speakers Barkin and Goolsbee may touch on tariff implications, though no major policy updates are expected. The $44 billion 7-year Treasury auction, the final one this month, is notable for its role in linking short- and long-end yields, with no signs so far of reduced foreign demand.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
BITCOIN (BTC/USD) – BREAKDOWN FROM THE CHANNEL! WHAT’S NEXT?Hey traders! 🧠
Today’s BTC/USD price action is sending a strong technical signal – price has broken down from the ascending channel, potentially marking the start of a deeper correction. Currently sitting at $106,200, with a daily drop of -1.49%.
🔍 Here’s what I’m seeing:
📉 Uptrend break – bears might be taking control.
🛑 Immediate support: $104,000.
🔼 Resistance ahead: $109,351 – reclaiming this is key for any bullish recovery.
📊 Watching closely whether BTC re-enters the channel or moves toward lower support (~$100K or below).
💡 My current plan:
If $104K holds, we could see a bounce. If not, prepare for a potential deeper dip. A return above $109K would be a bullish sign and could trigger renewed momentum.
📲 Follow me for more real-time updates, trade ideas, and clean technical breakdowns!
👉 If this helped, drop a like – it helps get this analysis in front of more traders!
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading
Intel - This might be the bottom!Intel - NASDAQ:INTC - might create a bottom:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
For almost an entire year, Intel has been consolidating at a major horizontal support. Considering the previous significant bloodbath, Intel might soon find its bottom, which is inevitably followed by a major bullish reversal. After all, market structure is slowly shifting bullish.
Levels to watch: $20.0, $25.0
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Gold builds momentum across timeframes – breakout or fade?XAUUSD could potentially be presenting a multi-timeframe bullish bias, with the trend analyzer indicating strong uptrends from M30 through H4, and a weaker uptrend on the D1 timeframe.
The price has moved above the 20, 50, and 100-period exponential moving averages (EMAs), potentially suggesting strengthening short-term momentum. The 200 EMA near $3,254 has held as dynamic support and marked the low of the recent retracement.
If the price maintains above the 100 EMA and breaks through near-term resistance at $3,320–$3,340, there is potential for a move toward the previous high around $3,360.
Traders might like to watch for confirmation from volume around resistance before positioning for breakout trades. Caution might be warranted if the price dips below $3,254, as it may indicate a deeper correction.
#DOGEUSDT: Targeting $2 By End Of The Year| Comment Your Views|DOGEUSDT stands as one of the most significant cryptocurrency pairs, yet its price has experienced substantial consolidation within a defined range, presenting challenges for trading and investment. However, we posit that the current price juncture holds the potential for a reversal, and we anticipate that by the end of the year, DOGEUSDT will reach approximately $2. In the interim, we recommend targeting smaller price ranges rather than aiming for $2, which may require months or even years to attain.
We extend our best wishes for your trading endeavours. It is imperative that you conduct your own analysis prior to making any investment decisions, as this does not guarantee any potential price movement.
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Team Setupsfx_
New Zealand central bank sees less growth, FOMC says it will remThe New Zealand dollar declined as much as 0.67% earlier but has recovered. In the European session, NZDS/USD is trading at 0.5969, up 0.04% on the day.
A day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, Governor Christian Hawkesby testified before a parliamentary committee on Thursday. Hawkesby said the central bank could hold rates in July and that rate decisions would be data-dependent. The Governor said he expected slower global growth would dampen New Zealand's recovery and there was uncertainty around the impact of the US tariffs.
The RBNZ has been aggressive, chopping 225 basis points in the current easing cycle, which has brought the cash rate down to 3.25%, its lowest level in almost three years. At yesterday's meeting, the RBNZ said that the cash rate was currently in a neutral zone, where it neither stimulates nor curbs economic growth.
FOMC minutes: Increasing uncertainly could mean "difficult tradeoffs"
In the FOMC minutes of the May 7 meeting, members expressed concern about the government's fiscal and trade policy. Members said that "uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further", making it appropriate to remain cautious until these policies became clearer. Members warned that if inflation remained high and growth and employment weakened, the Fed might have to make "difficult tradeoffs".
There was another twist to the Trump tariffs saga as the US Court of International Trade declared the tariffs illegal. The Court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing wide-sweeping tariffs against US trading partners. The decision puts a hold on the tariffs, but that may not last long as the US Justice Department has filed an appeal.