Fundamental Analysis
The Hidden Correlation Between Dollar Strength and crypto marketHello Traders 🐺
Maybe you’ve asked yourself this question: Why is it so hard to figure out exactly when the financial markets are about to pump or crash?
And how can I predict and prepare before it actually happens?
Because usually, people realize we’re in a bull or bear market when it’s already too late — when we’re halfway through the move. And as you probably know, the biggest opportunities always happen at the bottom, like now — when everyone is bearish, scared of recession, or talking about trade wars (which in my opinion is just a distraction).
If you know even a little about economics, you’d realize that most policies are made to strengthen markets — not to destroy them.
So why did we experience things like recessions or events like Black Monday?
The answer is simple: Recession is a normal and even healthy part of any economy. It resets prices, clears bubbles, and restores balance. Imagine a world where prices just keep going up forever... at some point, your purchasing power disappears. Inflation, in moderation, is part of a healthy economy — but when it turns into hyperinflation, it becomes a silent thief.
📊 But Why Am I Saying All This?
Because today, we’re going to look at the correlation between the DXY (Dollar Index) and TOTAL2 (Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC).
You might be wondering:
Why TOTAL2? Why not just talk about BTC?
If you’ve been following my ideas, you know I’ve been calling for an upcoming Altcoin Season.
Right now, we’re in the BTC phase. BTC is doing its thing — and everyone knows it’s likely to go higher. There’s no need to overhype the obvious.
But the real story is: while BTC is dominating, altcoins are bleeding — most of them are sitting at their ATL levels against BTC. That’s where the real opportunity is.
💵 Why the DXY?
If you read my previous DXY idea, you already know that deflationary assets like BTC and GOLD move inversely to the Dollar.
Every time we enter a QT cycle (a.k.a. Dollar Season), we see liquidity being drained, inflation being fought off, and markets getting crushed.
But here’s the alpha:
Every time the DXY crashes → crypto explodes.
Especially altcoins — because they are inherently riskier than BTC and react more aggressively to new liquidity entering the system.
Let me break it down 👇
DXY crash in 2020 → Altseason
DXY rise in may 2021 → Major crypto crash
Now → DXY breaking below a critical support line... 👀
If this breakdown holds and the Fed confirms the shift to a QE-friendly policy, we’re likely heading toward another massive crypto bull market.
Also — if you zoom in, there’s a clear bull flag forming on TOTAL2.
If DXY shows more weakness and Fed starts cutting rates, this flag might explode to the upside.
I hope you enjoyed this idea and as always, never forget our golden rule:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable — but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺KIU_COIN🐺
Friday Closeout | TA & Macro Recap + ES1! Game Plan📈 Chart Overview
Current Price: 5,312.75
Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend.
📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis
SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward.
SMA 50 (light blue) : ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross)
SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal.
Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support.
This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal.
📈 RSI (14 Close)
Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA)
Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness.
Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating.
📈 MACD (12, 26, 9)
MACD Line: -132.13
Signal Line: -125.86
Histogram: +6.27 and rising
Interpretation:
MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving.
Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move.
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest
Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend.
🧨 Volatility Outlook
TVC:VIX falls well within the 'Risk off Zone'.
TVC:VIX spiked to 52.33 before receding to its current 29.65
📈 Macro/Fundamental Analysis
Interpretation:
In high TVC:VIX environment, with Tariff, Fiscal, and Political Uncertainty, price action will likely remain mercurial. This is likely to persist into the foreseeable future.
TVC:DXY Dollar weakness has continued. Likely causes include: Fed Cut Expectations increasing & Decreasing Demand for US treasuries TVC:US10Y . I expect the weakening dollar to persist. All else qual, a weakening dollar is bullish for asset pricing, though, in the face of expect growth challenges, the effect is negated.
I expect US10Y sales to continue to struggle, in the face of inflation risk and rising trade tensions.
Bearish Possibilities:
Expect continued talk about 'firing' the current fed chair. The market should react poorly to these threats if they intensify or become increasingly probable.
Failures on trade talks with major trading partners.
Bullish Possibilities:
Improved earnings or earnings guidance, though, I expect this is unlikely.
Successes on trade talks and deals with major trading partners.
Fed Rate cuts - though - i expect this is highly unlikely.
Fed QE - thought - i expect this is highly unlikely in the short term, barring an explosion in TVC:US10Y yields.
📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule
Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week
Thursday - 830AM - Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday - 830AM - Durable Goods
Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer and Inflation Expectations
Notable Earnings Calendar:
Verizon NYSE:VZ - Tuesday
Lockhead NYSE:LMT - Tuesday
Ratheon NYSE:RTX - Tuesday
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA - Tuesday
Boeing NYSE:BA - Wednesday
Google NASDAQ:GOOG - Thursday
Intel NASDAQ:INTC - Thursday
Pepsi NASDAQ:PEP - Thursday
Proctor and Gamble NYSE:PG - Thursday
T-Mobile NASDAQ:TMUS - Thursday
🔍 Summary
🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'.
🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength.
🧠 Tactics:
Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment.
Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for:
Daily Close above the local swing high's or Low's
If we breakout higher, look for further Daily Rejection at the moving averages (especially SMA 50).
If we breakdown lower, look for a retest of the 5000 psychological support, down to, 4832.50.
$OTHERS is the correction over? All is in the Chart!Check the yellow arrows and lines— CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS (all altcoins excluding the top 10) is following a correction pattern similar to CRYPTOCAP:BTC and the $SPX500.
📉 On the 1W timeframe, the MACD is overbought and currently in the middle of a correction. This typically signals a bounce in the coming weeks.
🕰️ If we compare this to the previous cycle, it appears we're at the early stage of what could become an altseason. Back then, it took around 10 weeks after this point to see the real breakout.
🗓️ Based on that, I forecast:
May: first major pump
July–August: consolidation
September–October: final leg up
Despite recent announcements from Trump, the 1W chart has not significantly changed—everything is progressing as expected.
📊 You can verify this macro alignment with my other analyses:
🔗 SPX500 (trendline shows bottom around Sept 2025 at 4700):
🔗 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL (crypto market macro view):
🔗 CRYPTOCAP:BTC (warning posted on Feb 5, 2025):
📈 Everything is aligning—traditional markets, Bitcoin, and altcoins.
ECB lowers rates, Euro edges higherThe euro is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1369, up 0.09% on the day.
The ECB lowered its deposit facility rate on Thursday by a quarter-point, bring the rate to 2.25%. This marked the seventh rate cut since the ECB started its easing cycle in June 2024 and interest rates are now at their lowest since December 2022. The markets had expected the rate cut and the euro showed limited movement in response to the move.
The ECB's rate cut was largely a response to the chaos around US tariff policy. US President Donald Trump has sharply attacked the EU over its trade policy and slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the US. The EU retaliated with counter-tariffs but suspended those measures for 90 days after Trump suspended a second round of tariffs on EU goods. The sides are negoatiating but the US has threatened new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and the EU-US trade war could escalate in the coming weeks.
The euro has benefited so far from the escalating trade tensions, as hit 1.1476 last week, its highest level since February 2022. The US dollar has sustained sharp losses against the major currencies as investors look for safer shores in the midst of the turmoil in the financial markets.
The ECB statement said that the inflation continues to ease but expressed concern over worsening trade tensions which have muddied the economic outlook. ECB President Lagarde said in her follow-up press conference that "downside risks to economic growth have increased" which would likely impact on exports, investment and consumption.
The Federal Reserve is prepared to lower rates if necesary but the markets have priced in a hold at 90% the May 7 meeting according to CME Fedwatch. A cut in June is much more likely, with a 60% probability.
Breaking: Netflix ($NFLX) Surges 3% Amidst Topping Q1 Earnings The shares of Netflix (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NFLX ) is surging 3.5% in Friday's premarket session amidst Q1 earnings beat.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NFLX ) reported first-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ expectations, sending shares higher in extended trading Thursday, extending the gains to Friday's premarket session.
The streaming giant's revenue grew over 12% YoY to $10.54 billion, above the analyst consensus from Visible Alpha. Net income of $2.89 billion, or $6.61 per share, rose from $2.33 billion, or $5.28 per share, a year earlier, beating Wall Street’s expectations. The period marked the first quarter Netflix did not report subscriber numbers.
Netflix's Gains Come as Subscription Prices Rise
The better-than-expected results came in part due to higher subscription and ad revenues, the company said, along with the timing of expenses.
Netflix had raised prices for its plans in January, hiking its ad-supported plan to $7.99 from $6.99 per month, the standard ad-free plan to $17.99 from $15.49 a month, and its premium plan to $24.99 from $22.99 a month.
Netflix maintained its fiscal 2025 revenue projection of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion. Analysts on average had expected $44.27 billion. The company's second-quarter revenue forecast of $11.04 billion exceeded Wall Street's estimate of $10.91 billion.
Co-CEO Greg Peters said Netflix expects to double its advertising revenue this year, as the company rolls out its ad tech suite. The suite is live in the U.S. and Canada, with 10 other markets expected in the months to come.
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, NASDAQ:NFLX shares are up 3.29% in Friday's premarket session. NASDAQ:NFLX chart pattern has formed a perfect resistant and support point carved out since the 11th of November, 2024. Should NASDAQ:NFLX break the $1064 resistant point, a break out might be imminent for the entertainment giant.
Conversely, failure to break above that point could resort to a cool off to the $800 support point. NASDAQ:NFLX RSI is primed for a breakout as it is not oversold nor overbought but well positioned for a bullish move.
Altseason and a Weak Dollar — Will History Repeat in 2025?The altseason of 2017 started at the same time as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) began to fall. This likely helped bring more money into the crypto market. In 2020–2021, a similar thing happened: the falling dollar was followed by a strong rise in altcoins. But that time, altseason started closer to the end of the dollar’s decline.
A weaker dollar makes risky assets like crypto more attractive. In April 2020, the total crypto market cap was around $218 billion. Today, it’s about $2.63 trillion — around 12 times bigger.
However, to start a new altseason now, the market may need a lot more cheap money than in 2020. I’m not sure if the 2025 altseason can be as strong as in the past.
Now it seems that the only way to repeat that success is if a big part of the capital moves from Bitcoin into altcoins. This would need a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance. But this brings new questions. After the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the ownership structure has changed. Many people now own Bitcoin through investment funds, not directly. These funds may not be very excited to invest in altcoins.
What do you think about it? Share your opinion in the comments.
USD/CAD(20250418)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the seventh rate cut in the past year, and this decision was unanimous.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.3855
Support and resistance levels:
1.3933
1.3904
1.3885
1.3825
1.3807
1.3778
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.3855, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3885
If the price breaks through 1.3825, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3807
AUDUSD(20250418)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the seventh rate cut in the past year, and this decision was unanimous.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries: 0.6369
Support and resistance levels:
0.6430
0.6407
0.6392
0.6346
0.6331
0.6309
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 0.6392, consider buying, the first target price is 0.6407
If the price breaks through 0.6369, consider selling, the first target price is 0.6346
XRPUSDT – ETF Hype or Exit Liquidity Parade?“If BTC sneezes, XRP gets hospitalized.”
🧠 Market Context
Price: $2.07
Resistance Zone: $2.15 – $2.18
Support Zone: $2.00 – $1.88
POC (4H): $2.41 — where leveraged hopes go to die
Volume: Fading across 15m and 4H
Delta: -363K (15m) – strong seller aggression
OI: +578K → rising with price stuck = bait
🔬 Order Flow Breakdown
OI up, price flat → classic smart money unloading on retail
Strong Delta divergence: buyers being absorbed
Heatmap shows stop clusters below $2.00
BTC weakness threatens every bullish setup in altcoins
📰 News Catalysts (Legit, Not Hopium)
ETF Speculation Only. ProShares eyeing XRP futures ETF, but no approval or timeline confirmed.
SEC Case Still Open. Appeal paused. No clarity. Regulatory uncertainty continues to hang over XRP.
Options Data is Bearish. Put/call ratios show downside protection is the market's priority — not upside bets.
📌 Translation: News flow does NOT support a sustainable move higher.
⚔️ Trading Plan
Direction: Short
Entry Zone: $2.15 – $2.18
Target 1: $2.00
Target 2: $1.88
Stop Loss: $2.25
Leverage: 25x – 50x (adjust for sanity)
🔁 Conditions for Execution
XRP fails to break $2.18 on rising OI
BTC stays below $84K or loses momentum
Volume remains low and delta continues negative
⚠️ BTC: The Elephant in the Room
BTC POC at $84.6K
OI decreasing while price stalls
If BTC breaks down, XRP will not survive the shock — it will lead the dump among majors.
TL;DR: “XRP is bait. BTC is the trigger.”
🎭 Final Take from Pôncio
“They’re selling dreams of ETFs while quietly preparing stop hunts.
Order Flow is screaming exit, not moon.
If BTC goes south, XRP follows — fast and ugly.”
📉 Summary Table
Signal - Status
VPVR Resistance - ✅ Confirmed @ $2.15–2.41
OI Behavior - 🚨 Bullish trap
Delta - ❌ Negative and aggressive
Volume - ❌ Weak and fading
Macro News - ❌ No support for pump
BTC Impact - 🧨 High correlation risk
📛 #XRPUSDT #OrderFlow #SmartMoney #CryptoAnalysis #BTCImpact #DeltaDivergence
📉 Trade like the institutions. Or feed them.
SUIUSDT – Liquidity Build-Up or Just a Beautiful Trap?“If you’re long here, you’re not early. You’re just lunch.”
🧠 Institutional Context
Strong POC at $2.06
Price consolidating above the value area, with multiple rejections at $2.18–2.22
Open Interest rising while price stalls → leveraged longs stacking = trap in progress
Delta staying negative → buyers getting absorbed, not rewarded
Volume declining = no real demand, just retail chasing momentum
🔬 Order Flow Breakdown
Delta (15min & 4H) shows clear lack of follow-through on buy pressure
OI added +600K recently with no breakout = clear liquidity build-up
Heatmap reveals liquidation clusters below $2.04, with vacuum down to $1.88
BTC sitting on a cliff — a flush there takes everything with it
🎯 Trading Plan
Direction: Short
Entry: $2.18 – $2.22
Target 1: $2.04
Target 2: $1.88
Stop Loss: $2.33
Leverage: 25x – 50x
Trigger conditions:
– BTC drops below $84K
– SUI fails to break $2.22 on rising OI and negative Delta
– Volume remains dry
🧨 Final Thoughts from Pôncio
“This isn’t strength. It’s a funeral procession with confetti.”
Everyone’s bullish.
Everyone’s positioned.
Everyone’s about to get slapped.
Summary:
Smart money is already out.
Retail’s stuck buying into resistance.
And when this drops, it won’t bounce — it’ll vanish.
📉 #SUIUSDT #CryptoFutures #OrderFlow #SmartMoney #DeltaMatters
📛 Trade like a sociopath. Or fund someone who does.
NEIROUSDT → Countertrend momentum. Is the reversal close?BINANCE:NEIROUSDT.P is one of not many coins that is growing. But the only disadvantage is that the coin is at the bottom. Most likely it is forming a set of liquidity before continuing to fall.
NEIRO is strengthening and heading towards the resistance of the range while bitcoin continues its correction.
Strong resistance and liquidity zone at 0.187 is ahead. Strong gains could be stopped by a false breakout and reversal
Just because a coin is at the bottom doesn't mean it has nowhere to fall. Yes, there is.
At the moment the price is in the range on the background of a strong downtrend, within which the price does not show signs of life. The previous buyback ended with a strong sell-off.
Resistance levels: 0.000187, 0.0002045.
Support levels: 0.000169, 0.000154
In the short term, we should expect a false breakout, reversal and price drop to the support of the range.
I do not rule out a prolonged struggle in the resistance zone, within which the price may go higher and test the 0.00020 liquidity zone before continuing to fall, within which it may renew the bottom.
Regards R. Linda!
UnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price PlummetsUnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price Plummets
UnitedHealth shares crashed by nearly 23% yesterday after the healthcare giant reported weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 results:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $7.20, expected = $7.29
→ Revenue: actual = $109.5bn, expected = $111.5bn
Technical Analysis of UNH Share Chart
As far back as a year ago, we highlighted key support around the $450 level. Yesterday’s negative news caused this support to once again demonstrate its strength by holding back further decline — but will it hold?
Taking the price action marked on the chart as a base, we can establish the structure of a descending channel (shown in red), with the price gapping sharply lower into the bottom half of this channel — and yesterday’s candle high (marked with an arrow) suggests that the median line has turned into resistance.
Yesterday’s candle closed near its lows, so it is reasonable to assume that bearish pressure may persist (with the aim of testing the lower boundary) — in which case, the $450 support zone, in place since early 2022, could be at risk.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Netflix Pops as Earnings Top Estimates. Are Tariffs a Threat?Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX dropped its first-quarter earnings Thursday after market close and the headlines practically wrote themselves: a record net income, an earnings beat, and a 3% implied jump for the stock at the opening bell. All in a market where the Nasdaq is crying in the corner.
But as always in markets, the big question isn’t “What happened?”—it’s “What could mess this up?”
Ready, set, action: steep tariffs, Donald Trump, and the looming threat of a recession-fueled advertising freeze.
Let’s break down the earnings binge before we channel surf over to the risk segment. Spoiler: Netflix is on a roll—but geopolitical static might still mess with the signal.
🎬 Netflix Hits Record Numbers
The earnings season is picking up the pace. Netflix’s Q1 revenue hit $10.5 billion, up 13% from last year, with net income jumping to a record $2.9 billion. That’s a cool $600 million more than the same quarter last year—and a massive flex with earnings per share at $6.61. Wall Street was only expecting $5.71 a pop.
More importantly, the company raised its full-year revenue forecast to the range of $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion.
💿 How Many New Subs?
In case you're hunting for sub numbers moving forward—don’t bother. Netflix said last quarter they’re done reporting them quarterly. They’d rather focus on what “really matters”: revenue, operating margin, and ad growth.
In Q4 2024, the final quarter with a subscriber growth update, the company pulled off its biggest user-count gain ever: 19 million new accounts , bringing the global total to over 300 million. Not a bad way to drop the mic and ghost the group chat.
🍿 The Ads Are Working. So Are the Price Hikes.
In a move that would usually send churn metrics on a downhill slope, Netflix in January bumped its top-tier plan to $24.99/month in the US. Either that speaks volumes about content quality, or we’ve all collectively accepted that we’ll pay any price to avoid commercials.
That said, ads are quietly becoming Netflix’s next big profit lever. After a rocky launch in late 2022, the ad-supported tier is now gaining serious traction. According to estimates, 43% of new US sign-ups in February 2025 opted for the ad-tier plan, up from 40% in January. Netflix expects to nearly double ad revenue this year.
📺 Is Netflix Recession-Proof?
With interest rates high relative to four years ago, consumer wallets stretched, and geopolitical tension ratcheting up, Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters had to address the elephant in the earnings room: what happens if people stop spending?
Streaming should survive the storm. As he put it, “Entertainment has historically been pretty resilient in tougher economic times.”
Executives also noted that during downturns, people tend to seek value. Netflix, with its endless scroll, becomes the budget-friendly indulgence of choice. It’s hard to argue with that when you’re five episodes deep into a true-crime docuseries at 3 a.m.
👀 But Then There’s That Nagging Tariff Thing...
While Netflix has so far been insulated from the direct hit of Trump’s revived trade war—most of its costs are content, not commodities—it’s not immune to broader market impact. Tariffs could rattle advertisers, especially if they trigger inflation spikes, slowdowns, or investor anxiety.
Ad budgets are notoriously skittish in volatile times, and if there’s one thing advertisers hate more than bad CPMs, it’s uncertainty. Already, there's chatter that major brands are planning to trim digital spending heading into the second half of the year.
Translation: if tariffs lead to an economic wobble, Netflix’s ad revenue (and by extension, its bullish earnings story) could face a tougher climb.
📢 Leadership Shuffle: No Drama, Just Strategy
In other corporate news, Reed Hastings, the co-founder who brought us DVD mailers, quietly transitioned from executive chair to non-executive chair. It’s more ceremonial than sensational, but it marks a passing of the torch to the current co-CEOs, who clearly have things under control—if this earnings report is any indication.
❤️ Wall Street Loves It—for Now
Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX shares are up 10% year to date, which looks especially shiny next to the Nasdaq’s NASDAQ:IXIC 16% drop. While tech has wobbled under tariff pressure and chip-stock drama ,
Netflix is moving in the opposite direction—proof that profitability, pricing power, and content diversity are still pulling in fresh capital inflows.
But don’t get too comfortable. If tariff fears escalate or ad momentum stalls, Netflix may need to prove all over again that it’s more than just a pandemic darling turned pricing juggernaut.
🎥 Final Frame: Chill Now, but Keep One Eye on Macro
Netflix’s Q1 numbers were promising — but that was just before Trump’s sweeping tariffs rattled global markets.
Added levies, recession risk, and shifting ad budgets could all become plot twists in Netflix’s otherwise upbeat storyline. For now, though, it’s lights, camera, rally.
Your turn: Are you still bullish on Netflix, or are Trump’s tariffs and economic drama changing your channel? Let us know what’s on your watchlist.
ALCHUSDT → Rally to the liquidity zone. False breakout?BINANCE:ALCHUSDT.P is one of not many coins that looks strong amid the bearish cryptocurrency market. But how long will this energy last? There is strong resistance ahead....
A local pre-breakdown consolidation relative to the intraday level is forming. In general, this is the state of the market, ready to continue its growth within the distribution.
Thus, the breakout of 0.1590 resistance will provoke the continuation of growth up to the liquidity zone at 0.177. But already at 0.177, due to the fact that it is an important and strong intermediate resistance level, we should expect a false breakout and a pullback, for example, to 0.159 or 0.5 fibo.
Resistance levels: 0.159, 0.177, 0.23
Support levels: 0.1516, 0.5 fibo
The distribution is already 53% since the breakout of the consolidation resistance. By the time the resistance is approached, it will be 77% and the market may use up all the accumulated potential, so liquidity above 0.177 is likely to stop the upward rally and turn the coin down.
Regards R. Linda!
EURJPY Hovers Near Mid-Range — Buyers Reload Below 162EURJPY DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🎯
🧠 EURJPY Hovers Near Mid-Range — Buyers Aim to Reload Below 162
OVERALL TREND
📈 UPTREND — Price structure is forming higher pivot lows with rejection from the March 2024 lows. Bullish intent is sustained unless structure breaks below 153.16.
🔴RESISTANCE
🔴 175.428 — SELL STOPLOSS | PIVOT HIGH
🔴 175.046 — RESISTANCE (MAJOR)
🔴 174.327 → 172.100 — SELL ORDER RANGE
🔴 166.558 — RESISTANCE (MINOR)
🎯ENTRIES & TARGETS
🎯170.975 — BUY ORDER & TP 4
🎯166.924 — BUY ORDER & TP 3
🎯164.296 — BUY ORDER & TP 2 (MID PIVOT)
🎯160.511 — BUY ORDER & TP 1
🟢SUPPORT
🟢 156.830 — SUPPORT (PROXIMAL)
🟢 156.642 → 154.277 — BUY ORDER RANGE
🟢 154.837 — SUPPORT (MAJOR)
🟢 153.164 — BUY STOPLOSS | PIVOT LOW
📌STRUCTURAL NOTES
Price recently stalled beneath the 162.000 zone — consolidation here indicates indecision, but no structural break yet
Triple rejection noted between 160.51 → 166.92 range, with multiple higher lows beneath — suggesting accumulation
Sellers activated at 172.10 and 174.32 levels, both aligned with visible pivot highs
Mid Pivot at 164.296 is a key inflection point — watch for buyer-seller battle here
TRADE OUTLOOK 🔍
📈 Long bias maintained above 160.51 and especially if price confirms a bounce from 156.64 or 154.27 zones.
📉 Bearish momentum could resume if price fails to hold above 153.16, breaking the most recent pivot low.\
🏆 High reward setups exist between 154.27 → 160.51 for re-entry into the broader uptrend
🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION
CONSERVATIVE SWING SETUP (Trend-Following):
— Buy Entry: 160.51
— TP Levels: 164.29 / 166.92 / 170.97
— SL: 153.16
AGGRESSIVE REVERSAL SCALP:
— Buy Zone: 154.27 or 156.64
— TP: 160.51 / 164.29
— SL: Below 153.16
“Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
USDHKD 7.75 and 7.85 PEG RANGE USDHKD is waking up and we're getting early signals of a run toward 7.85
This pair moves in slow motion, but right now the setup is clear as price is grinding higher after bouncing perfectly from our key level. HKMA’s 7.85 weak-side peg is acting like a price magnet when the Fed stays hawkish = fuel for this move
Most traders ignore this pair because it’s pegged and low volatility but that’s exactly why it works. Institutions trade this range relentlessly for easy profits. We’re riding the momentum until HKMA steps in.
SOLUSDT – Final Ascent Before the Abyss?"If this isn’t a trap, then FTX is still solvent."
📈 THE SCENE:
Solana’s looking bullish? Sure. So did Luna, Celsius, and Three Arrows before they became bedtime horror stories.
Price: Hovering around $134.5, acting like it’s immune to gravity.
VPVR: Volume cliff right below — there’s literally nothing until $128… then $118.
POC: $132.8 — aka the spot where poor souls entered late, juiced on hopium and influencer tweets.
🧠 THE DATA (a.k.a. The Smoking Gun):
OI climbing like it’s 2021, but without the bull market to back it.
Delta positive, yet price stagnant = buyers getting absorbed harder than WeWork’s liquidity.
Volume slowing = momentum fading = perfect setup for smart money to yank the rug.
📉 MACRO PERSPECTIVE (4H):
What do we see?
Long buildup without follow-through.
Price crawling up while BTC is on thin ice.
If Bitcoin sneezes, SOL's lungs collapse.
BTC below $84K = SOL going back to $120s faster than CZ deletes a tweet.
🎯 TRADE IDEA:
Short from $134.5–135.5
SL: $137.2 (because we respect market makers' yacht fund)
TP1: $128
TP2: $118
Leverage? Whatever makes your palms sweat and your broker call your therapist.
💬 FINAL WORDS:
“This rally feels about as real as Elizabeth Holmes’ biotech vision.
Everyone’s long. Everyone’s confident. Everyone’s... about to get margin called.”
Smart money isn’t buying this. They’re selling it... to you.
And when they dump, it’s not a correction — it’s a funeral procession with fireworks.