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Fundamental Analysis

Uber’s Path to $95+Uber Technologies (UBER) is positioning itself for long-term growth by expanding beyond its core ride-hailing and delivery businesses into advertising, travel, service partnerships, and autonomous vehicle (AV) technology. These strategic moves aim to diversify revenue streams and enhance operational efficiency. Key Growth Drivers: - Strong Core Business Performance – Uber continues to benefit from robust demand in both ride-hailing and delivery, generating significant economic profit. - Artificial Intelligence Integration – AI plays a crucial role in optimizing pricing, reducing wait times, personalizing user experiences, and preventing fraud. - Autonomous Vehicle Expansion – Uber is increasingly leveraging AV technology to reduce driver-related costs and scale its services. - Strategic Investments – The company is using its strong cash flow to fund innovation, product development, acquisitions, and minority investments, driving long-term value. - Capital-Efficient Growth – Uber’s ability to expand its service platform with minimal capital investment is expected to accelerate revenue growth and shareholder value creation. Price Target & Options Flow: Tigress Financial has raised Uber’s price target from $103 to $110, maintaining a Buy rating. Additionally, option flow on Uber is showing strong bullish activity, suggesting institutional interest. Given this momentum, Uber could potentially surpass $95 before August, especially if AV advancements and AI-driven efficiencies continue to strengthen its financial outlook
NYSE:UBERLong
by Wiiso
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical & Fundamental UpdateOverview: Gold OANDA:XAUUSD on the 4-hour chart is currently in a corrective phase after a recent bounce, but the overall structure remains bearish with clear downside risk. ________________________________________ Key Observations: Price Action: Gold is trading around $3,319 after a recent rebound from the $3,272–$3,243 support zone. The price is now testing a resistance area highlighted by the previous consolidation zone, suggesting that upside momentum is facing challenges. Supply and Demand Zones: • There is a visible supply (resistance) zone around $3,320–$3,340, where sellers previously stepped in. • Multiple demand (support) zones are marked below, especially near the Fibonacci retracement levels at $3,272 (38.2%), $3,243 (50.0%), and $3,214 (61.8%). Fibonacci Levels: The chart uses a Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low to high: • 38.2% at $3,272 • 50% at $3,243 • 61.8% at $3,214 These levels are aligning with key demand zones, increasing their significance for potential bounces or reversals. Trend Structure: Despite the recent recovery, lower highs and lower lows dominate the chart, indicating a bearish trend. The failure to break above the $3,340 resistance keeps the downside scenario in play. ________________________________________ Fundamental Drivers Safe-Haven Demand Weakening: Easing tariff risks and improved global risk sentiment have reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The recent US court ruling against Trump-era tariffs and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in 2025 are shifting market dynamics. Macro Themes: • A hawkish Fed or further de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could pressure gold lower. • Persistent inflation or renewed global risks could limit the downside and trigger rebounds
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Richtv_official
Selling pressure, gold price falls below 3300⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices continued to retreat during Wednesday’s North American session, slipping below the $3,300 mark after reaching an intraday high of $3,325 earlier. The pullback, amounting to a 0.27% decline, came as traders absorbed the implications of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes. During the May 6–7 policy meeting, the Fed opted to leave interest rates unchanged, highlighting growing uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of proposed tariffs. Officials maintained a cautious stance, citing heightened risks of both inflation and unemployment—potential consequences of trade disruptions. The minutes also reflected concerns over stagflation, with policymakers noting that “the Committee may face challenging trade-offs if inflation proves more persistent while growth and employment expectations deteriorate.” ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: The downtrend line remains intact, gold prices are trading around below 3300. The tariff backdrop remains largely unchanged. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3311- 3313 SL 3318 TP1: $3300 TP2: $3290 TP3: $3280 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3205- $3207 SL $3200 TP1: $3218 TP2: $3230 TP3: $3248 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
7
Gold Price Action Update – Smart Dip Buy Pays Off!Yesterday, gold dipped to around 3290, followed by a minor rebound. Today, as expected, it broke down through the 3280 level decisively—just as we discussed: 🔻 A break below 3280 likely means a gap fill toward 3259. ✅ For those who followed the plan and went long below 3266, the trade worked beautifully— Gold dropped to a low of 3245, effectively filling the gap, and has since rebounded back to the 3280 area. 📈 What’s next? Now that the gap is filled, gold is likely to retest the $3300 zone in the short term. With price currently around 3280, there is still room to the upside. ➡️ If you're holding long positions, you can consider holding a bit longer for potential further gains. 🚨 BUT—this was only a single bottom test. That means there's still a chance of a second dip before the trend fully reverses. So: 🛡 Risk management remains crucial. If you're okay with some profit pullback, it's fine to stay in. If not, consider securing partial profits and setting trailing stops. 🎯 Key levels to watch: 🔼 3300 – Main resistance zone; focus on whether it breaks or rejects; 🔽 3276–3263 – Support range on any pullback; good zones to watch for fresh entries if support holds. 📌 Trading Strategy Outlook: For now, continue to buy on dips as long as support holds, and monitor 3300 resistance closely. If price fails to break above, we may see a pullback—but as always, with proper planning, we stay profitable.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Arthur3017
Safe Entry ZoneCurrently stock in down movement. Has Two significate support level 1h Green Zone (most propaply will respected) and 4h Green Zone (Strongest Support Level) price targeting is the 1h Red Zone (Take Profit Line where you can secure profit) then for long term we got two P.High(Previous Hign) Lines which acts as Strong Resistance Levels MUST Be Respected and Watch-out for any selling Pressure to secure profit. Note: Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
NASDAQ:LCIDShort
by Faisalzor
Gold is still washing out, beware of a fall below 3326! 📊Comment Analysis After gold fell in the Asian session, the entire European session rebounded continuously, and the US session hit the 3318 line. Overall, it is still a wide range of shocks and washes out. No matter whether it rises or falls, it is not continuous, and the fluctuation range is large, which is difficult to grasp in short-term operations. The current rise cannot be regarded as a strong trend. The characteristic of the shock market is repetition. The 4H cycle opens at 3326 as a watershed. Beware of a fall below this position in the US session. You can try to go short near 3320/3325. At present, it is a key position to bet on the short position. If it goes up, it will be 3340/3350. The rise in a short period of time is too large, and once it falls back, the strength will be the same. ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose a lot that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the fund account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Labaron
2
Bitcoin (4H) Analysis 🚫 Rejection at 112K Resistance BTC failed to break above the 112K zone and reversed sharply. 😮‍💨 Cooling-Off Needed After weeks of relentless gains, a healthy pullback is due to “catch its breath.” Key retracement area: 100K-101K (weekly FVG zone) 📅 Macro Catalysts – Friday : US Core PCE (major inflation read) – This week : Fed speakers on tap – Markets are paused, awaiting a clear driver 🎯 What to Watch 100K-101K support for buy-side demand Break or hold above 112K to gauge next leg Reaction to Core PCE for directional bias 💡 Summary Rejection → Retrace into FVG → Major inflation print → Potential launch toward new highs ! 🚀
VANTAGE:BTCUSDShort
by BenMcyInsights
Gold starts a new trend? What is the reason?Gold prices rebounded, and the phenomenon of "buying on dips" appeared after hitting the low of the week earlier. In addition, the US Trade Court ruled that President Donald Trump's tariffs on major trading partners exceeded his authority, which attracted market attention. Investors' focus has gradually shifted to the US core inflation data to be released this week. So far, the price of gold has risen by 0.91%, and the price has fluctuated around 3315. It hit the lowest point since May 20 during the European and Asian sessions. The cyclical market presents a three-wave pattern. The first two periods showed a trend of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. It is currently entering the third period. The current rally has basically ended and will usher in a small decline. I believe that the current rise in gold is partly due to technical covering, while economic uncertainty continues to support gold prices amid ongoing US debt problems and global trade tensions. In addition, there are reports that the United States has ordered a large number of companies not to export goods to China without permission, and revoked the export licenses that some suppliers have obtained. The current market is focusing on the US GDP data to be released later and the core personal consumption expenditure price index to be released on Friday. These two data will become an important basis for judging the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve. I will also pay attention to the release of news in a timely manner so as to update you in time on the impact of news on gold prices. Please be patient, traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid-1
XAUUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 29-05-2025📣Gold Under Pressure XAUUSD CMP $3316.81 ✅XAUUSD movement 29-05-2025: $3289-$3245-$3321 =$120 Movement Witnessed. 🔴Gold remains under pressure after a sharp turn from morning crash, which has triggered fresh volatility across commodities in USA session. ⏳ Despite safe-haven appeal, XAUUSD faces bullish momentum after a correction, driven by renewed appetite for risk assets and shifting market flows. 📉 Technical Outlook (1H): • Bearish below $3305 • Next downside targets: $3280 → $3265 → $3250 • A break below $3255 could accelerate the decline toward $3240-$3220 🔁 Bullish Shift Trigger: • A confirmed 1H close above $3319 may invalidate the bearish bias and target $3340+ 📊 Key Levels: • Pivot: $3305 • Support: $3280 – $3265 – $3250 • Resistance: $3327 – $3339 – $3351
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by sagaahhelite
King BTC - Bitcoin Dominance Continues to Go Up OnlyIf market cycles still matter, this current one will be remembered as a disappointment by many crypto traders. With Bitcoin Dominance up-only, this has been the cycle of institutional traders who accumulate Bitcoin. For years, crypto traders hoped that institutions would 'buy our bags'. But for now, only 'King BTC' has benefitted. From its low point at less than 40%, Bitcoin market cap dominance versus the rest of the crypto markets is now sitting at 65%. The times when crypto traders would 'hunt gems' and hold Altcoins that would go up 10-100x are over. Between the 'crypto trenches' of memecoin traders hunting very low cap memes that can go up multiples and then go back to 0 even quicker and 'King BTC', not much of the rest of the market has caught a bid. The picture is completely different on the institutional side. For many funds, Bitcoin is now part of a core treasury strategy. Pensions and endowments dip in through ETF exposure. Especially in the US, the regulatory and legal outlook are improving rapidly under a pro-crypto US administration. Asset managers like BlackRock are promoting BTC as a long-term store of value with lower correlation to equities than previously assumed. In fact, institutional Bitcoin FOMO is accelerating rapidly. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy famously leveraged its balance sheet to borrow funds, buy Bitcoin for its treasury and then rinse and repeat. The strong performance of MicroStrategy has unsurprisingly led to copy-cats. This week, GameStop became the latest one, confirming that it had bought 4,710 BTC worth about $513 million. In a sign that the buck might not stop here, SharpLink, a performance-based marketing company serving the U.S. sports betting and global iGaming industries, launched a $425million private placement to accumulate Ethereum into its treasury. Leaving aside the question of who would lend so much money to a sports marketing company, other burning questions remain. Will Bitcoin FOMO lead to another parabolic rally? Will Ethereum treasury-buys finally lead to new all-time-highs for the 2nd largest Crypto Coin by market cap? And will that lead to a 'more traditional' Altcoin rally? Maybe most importantly: how sustainable is the MicroStrategy Treasury accumulation? As always in Crypto markets, reflexivity is strong on the way up, but critical on the way down. If the BTC price ever drops below the average purchase price of its Bitcoin and debt-rollover deadlines are approaching, will MicroStrategy end up having to sell Bitcoin in a fire sale? Past market history tends to agree with Murphy's Law: usually, whatever can go wrong in crypto, eventually does go wrong. Maybe the day will come when the rise of Bitcoin dominance will stop 'the hard way'.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Coinrule
Nvidia Earnings Boost, Trade Tariffs Legitimacy, NQ trade ideaCME_MINI:NQ1! Big Picture Context: . NQ futures rallied after NVIDIA posted an earnings beat and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs. Goldman Sachs noted that the ruling on Liberation Day tariffs gives the administration 10 days to halt tariff collection, but does not affect sectoral tariffs. The administration can still impose across-the-board and country-specific tariffs under other legal authorities. Jobless claims and continuing claims have come in higher. What has the market done? The rally faded in the overnight session. However, the catalysts provided energy for prices to move higher. Currently, price is trading above the prior week’s high, yesterday’s high, and it is also trading above the yearly open, and 2025 VPOC and mcVPOC for the last 3 weeks. What is it trying to do? The market is negating the recent bear market territory sell-off and negating a bear market rally. It is propelling higher. How good of a job is it doing? The market has created good structure and micro composites, despite some gaps left open, and it has created higher lows since last Friday. What is more likely to happen from here? Scenario 1: Long Continuation In this scenario, we are looking for NQ to turn at the immediate 2025 LVN support area. If it edges higher, we will be looking for potential long opportunities above the 21710–21720 area, targeting overnight highs and potentially the next HVN. Scenario 2: Gap Close and Reversal In this scenario, we are looking for a pullback, testing pHi and pWk-Hi. We will look for a rounded base that consolidates here on a lower timeframe, such as the 5-minute timeframe, and look for a reversal back towards the 21710–21720 level. pWk-Hi: prior Week's High pHi: prior Day's High HVN: High Volume Node LNV: Low Volume Node VPOC: Volume Point of Control C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
DOGE|Bearish Triangle Formation On30-Min Chart-Breakdown Ahead?📉 DOGE Bearish Triangle Breakdown | 30-Min Chart This chart highlights a classic *bearish triangle formation* in DOGE's market cap on the 30-minute timeframe. The pattern shows a series of lower highs with horizontal support around the 32.45B zone. 🔍 Key Observations: - Pattern: Bearish Triangle - Resistance: ~34.7B - Support Zone: ~32.45B - Target Zone (Post-Breakdown): ~31.3B A breakdown below the support level could signal further downside movement. However, confirmation is key — traders should watch for volume and candle close below support. 🕒 Timeframe: 30-Minute Chart 📆 Analysis Date: May 29, 2025 --- ⚠ *Disclaimer:* This analysis is shared purely for *educational purposes* and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research and risk management before making any trading decisions.
CRYPTOCAP:DOGE
by Smart_Trading_Strategy
Gold (XAUUSD): Beyond the Noise - Uncovering Core LevelsGold (XAUUSD) - A Top-Down Technical Analysis: Navigating Key Levels Amidst Shifting Momentum Analyst: Sochima Charles Nzeakor /Firm Name - UpperCase Date: May 29, 2025 Introduction: Gold (XAUUSD) has been a focal point for global investors, offering a safe haven amidst geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures. This top-down analysis delves into XAUUSD across multiple timeframes – Weekly (1W), Daily (1D), 4-Hour (4H), and 30-Minute (30m) – to provide a comprehensive outlook on its current trajectory and identify key levels for potential trading opportunities. Our objective is to unravel the prevailing market structure, pinpoint critical support and resistance zones, and assess the interplay of price action with broader market sentiment. 1. Weekly Timeframe (1W) - The Macro Picture: The weekly chart (image: image.png with "tradingsim") reveals a robust bullish trend for XAUUSD over the past few months. Following a significant upward impulse, price has entered a consolidation phase, marked by a series of higher lows and higher highs, albeit with some recent sideways movement. * Key Observations: * Strong Uptrend: The long-term trend remains unequivocally bullish, indicated by the overall ascent of price. * Consolidation/Retracement: After a strong rally, price is currently consolidating within a defined range. This could be interpreted as a healthy retracement or a re-accumulation phase before the next potential move. * Significant Support: The area around $2,900 - $2,950 appears to be a crucial weekly support zone, having previously acted as resistance. * Overhead Resistance: The immediate overhead resistance is evident around the $3,450 - $3,500 psychological level, which coincides with recent swing highs. * Long-Term Bullish Bias: Despite the recent consolidation, the weekly chart strongly suggests a bullish bias for Gold in the long term, contingent on the preservation of key support levels. 2. Daily Timeframe (1D) - Unpacking the Intermediate Trend: Zooming into the daily chart (image: image.png with "tradingview apk"), we gain a clearer perspective on the intermediate trend and recent price action. * Key Observations: * Corrective Structure: The daily chart confirms the ongoing consolidation, which has taken on a more defined corrective structure, possibly forming a bullish pennant or flag pattern. * Trendline Support/Resistance: A clear descending trendline has formed, acting as dynamic resistance, while a more subtle ascending trendline or horizontal support level has emerged, forming the base of the consolidation. * Critical Daily Support: The immediate daily support is identified around the $3,200 - $3,250 region, which has seen repeated tests and rejections, indicating its significance. * Resistance at Trendline/Key Levels: The price has repeatedly bounced off the descending trendline, indicating that breaking above this trendline will be crucial for the next bullish leg. Key resistance levels are also present around $3,320 - $3,360. * Volume Profile: While not explicitly shown with volume data, a healthy consolidation typically sees decreasing volume, suggesting a potential build-up for the next directional move. A breakout on strong volume would be a significant confirmation. 3. 4-Hour Timeframe (4H) - Dissecting Short-Term Dynamics: The 4-hour chart (image: image.png with "Chart, xaueur") provides a granular view of the recent price movements within the daily consolidation. * Key Observations: * Descending Channel/Wedge: The 4-hour chart clearly illustrates a descending channel or wedge pattern, which is often a bullish reversal pattern when appearing within an uptrend. * Lower Highs and Lower Lows within Channel: Price has been making lower highs and lower lows within this pattern, indicating short-term bearish pressure. * Immediate Resistance: The upper boundary of the descending channel acts as immediate resistance. A break above this would signal a shift in short-term momentum. * Key 4H Support: The $3,260 - $3,280 area has acted as recent support, with price bouncing off these levels. This confluence of support is critical to watch. * Potential for Breakout: The converging trendlines of the wedge suggest that a significant move is imminent, either a breakout to the upside or a breakdown to test lower support. 4. 30-Minute Timeframe (30m) - The Intraday Pulse: Finally, the 30-minute chart (images: image.png with "Chart, dogecoin technical analysis" and image.png with "Chart, xaueur") offers the most immediate insights into intraday price action and potential entry/exit points. * Key Observations: * Intraday Consolidation/Tightening Range: The 30-minute chart shows a very tight consolidation, with price action compressing into a smaller range. This is typical before a volatility expansion. * Immediate Resistance: The immediate intraday resistance is around $3,310 - $3,320, which aligns with the upper boundary of the short-term descending pattern observed on the 4H chart. * Immediate Support: Intraday support is seen around the $3,280 - $3,290 area. * Breakout Imminent: The extremely tight range and converging trendlines on the 30-minute chart strongly suggest that a breakout, either to the upside or downside, is highly probable in the very near term. Traders should prepare for increased volatility. Concluding Remarks & Potential Scenarios: Gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a critical juncture. While the long-term weekly trend remains bullish, the daily and 4-hour charts indicate a well-defined corrective phase within a bullish continuation pattern (descending wedge/pennant). The intraday charts underscore the imminence of a significant move. Bullish Scenario: A decisive breakout above the descending trendline on the daily and 4-hour charts, coupled with a break above the $3,320 - $3,360 resistance zone, would confirm the continuation of the long-term uptrend. Targets could then extend towards the $3,450 - $3,500 weekly resistance and potentially higher, towards $3,600 and beyond. This would be supported by strong volume and sustained momentum. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, a breakdown below the crucial daily support at $3,200 - $3,250 would invalidate the current bullish continuation pattern and suggest a deeper retracement. In this scenario, price could seek support at the weekly support zone around $2,900 - $2,950. A break below $3,280 on the 30-minute chart would be an early warning sign. Key Levels to Watch: * Major Resistance: $3,320, $3,360, $3,450 - $3,500 * Major Support: $3,200 - $3,250, $2,900 - $2,950 * Intraday Resistance: $3,310 - $3,320 * Intraday Support: $3,280 - $3,290 Disclaimer : This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. We encourage community discussion and diverse perspectives on this analysis. Please share your insights and charts in the comments below!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by S_O_C_H_I_M_A
1
Ethereum = MySpace of Crypto?I have been watching COINBASE:ETHUSD flirt with 2750 for the better part of May as all crypto has gone "risk on" with Bitcoin's All-Time-High push. This level is the 50% Retracement of the last major high in December 2024 to the low of April 2025. There is also significant Volume Profile Resistance from February matching this price action level. This level is good for a short and can even be managed with tight risk given the clear price structure at this level. Normally I am a pure technical trader but I have a bearish fundamental bias on Ethereum... Fundamentals: Ethereum is dying. I know that may be unpopular to say but it is losing "network effect." Ethereum used to be the standard for the smart contract use case of cryptocurrency but it is being replaced by competition namely Solana. I ask, "what does Ethereum do that Solana does not do cheaper/faster/better?" Even the President of the United States used Solana to create his scam meme coin. Value judgements aside the use case of smart contracts to create new tokens has proven to be popular and the market has chosen which chain to create them. It was no longer Ethereum. The best analogy to Ethereum's fall from dominance would be to look back at social media companies like MySpace. At some inflection point for various reasons users choose to leave a platform for another. That is network effect and unfortunately for Ethereum it has already begun to lose it.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by norok
1
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
MASK/USDT Technical Analysis – Bullish Setup Forming? 🕒 Timeframe: 4H 📈 Exchange: Binance 💱 Pair: MASK/USDT 📌 Overview: MASK has recently shown strong bullish momentum and is now in a healthy correction phase, pulling back toward key Fibonacci levels. This could present a potential long opportunity – if the structure holds. 🔍 Price Action & Fibonacci: 🔹 Price is retracing from local highs. 🔹 Key Fibonacci retracement support: 🔸 0.5 @ $2.084 🔸 0.618 @ $2.152 These levels act as strong demand zones and may offer a bounce setup. --- 📊 Indicators: ✅ RSI (14): - Currently holding above 50 → Positive momentum. - Staying below 70 avoids overbought signals. ✅ MACD: - - Watching for continuation or signal line crossover. ✅ EMA: - Price remains above EMA 50 → Short-term bullish trend intact. - A break below EMA 50 could signal trend weakness 🎯 Trade Idea: 📌 Long Scenario: - Entry: $2.08 – $2.15 - Stop Loss: Below $2.05 - Targets: $2.30 → $2.45 → $2.60 📌 Short Scenario (if breakdown): - Entry: Below $2.05 after retest - Stop Loss: Above $2.15 - Targets: $1.95 → $1.80 ⚠️ Risk Management: - Futures traders: Watch leverage. - Monitor BTC/ETH as leading indicators. 💬 What’s your bias – are you buying the dip or waiting for confirmation? 📍 Like & Follow for more setups and updates!
by mvjalili
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 26-28/05/2025Incase you're new to the Judas Swing Strategy and want to know what the strategy is about, it is a classic price manipulation concept where the market fakes a move in one direction (the “Judas” move), only to reverse and trend in the opposite direction. It’s common during 00:00 - 08:30 EST openings, often used by smart money to trap retail traders. It’s especially powerful when paired with liquidity grabs above/below key highs or lows, followed by a reversal into a FVG confirmation On Monday, we identified a clean Judas Swing setup. Price spiked below previous lows, giving us a bias to look for potential buying setups after what looked like a classic liquidity grab. We got a break of structure and a reversal into the FVG created. However, after entry, price failed to reject meaningfully and instead continued lower only after taking out the low, hitting our stop loss before any major move up. We lost 1% on this trade and the lesson all traders need to learn here is that even valid setups will fail and you'll lose money at some point when trading. Fast forward to Wednesday We saw a similar manipulation as price spiked below recent Judas swing zones during NY session, grabbing sell-side liquidity before reversing sharply. We waited for confirmation a strong bullish engulfing and break of minor structure. Entry was taken long, with stop loss 10 pips below the liquidity grab and target at previous structure highs. The trade ran smoothly into profit, validating the setup and recovering the week's earlier loss. Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: Clean 1:2 Notes traders need to take from this trade: - Perfect Judas Swing after liquidity sweep - Patience for confirmation paid off - Structure shift confirmed smart money reversal
by CleoFinance