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Fundamental Analysis

Yen slides on oil supply jitters after US attack on IranThe Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. In the European session, USD/JPY has jumped 1.2% on the day and is trading at 147.82. The yen has fallen to five-week lows against the US dollar. The fallout from the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend is being felt in the currency markets. The Japanese yen, traditionally a safe-haven currency, continues to depreciate, in response to rising oil prices. Oil prices rose to their highest level since January on Monday after the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, a critical trade route through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes through each day. Oil prices have jumped about 10% since the Israel-Iran war started on June 13 and fears of a disruption to oil supply could further boost oil prices. As oil prices have climbed, the yen has lost ground, declining 3.0% since the Israel-Iran war started. Japan imports almost all of its oil and the rise in oil prices is hurting Japan's trade balance. Japan's core inflation rate climbed 3.7% y/y in May, up from 3.5% in April. Core CPI has accelerated for a third straight month and hit its highest level since Jan. 2023. This was above the market estimate of 3.6%. Headline inflation ticked lower to 3.5% from 3.6% in April, below the forecast of 3.6%. The rise in core CPI supports the case for the Bank of Japan to boost interest rates, but the uncertainty over tariffs and the Israel-Iran war will likely mean that the BoJ will stay on the sidelines in the coming months. There is resistance at 146.91. Next, USD/JPY is testing resistance at 147.61 146.51 and 145.81 are the next support levels
by OANDA
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – Monday, June 23, 2025Current Price: 3368.76 Trend: Bearish on H4 | Corrective on H1 | Weak Bullish Attempt on M15 Market Context: Gold is consolidating under EMA pressure after FOMC. Price is pinned inside a key flip zone, awaiting Monday’s fundamental triggers. 🔸 HTF Overview (D1, H4, H1) 📰 Macro + Economic Context – Week of June 23–28: This is a high-impact week for USD with Fed speeches, inflation, and growth data. Monday opens with caution: Monday, June 23 🟠 FOMC Member Waller Speaks 🔴 Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI 🟠 Existing Home Sales Tuesday, June 24 🔴 Fed Chair Powell Testifies 🟠 CB Consumer Confidence 🟠 Richmond Manufacturing Index Wednesday, June 25 🔴 Powell Testimony (Day 2) 🟠 New Home Sales Thursday, June 26 🔴 Final GDP q/q 🔴 Unemployment Claims 🟠 Durable Goods Orders 🟠 Pending Home Sales Friday, June 27 🔴 Core PCE Price Index 🟠 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 📌 Monday is lighter in impact, but PMI data and Waller’s speech may spark the week’s directional bias. Avoid trading blindly into PMI spikes. H4 Structure & Bias: Bearish trend intact: Lower High = 3418, Lower Low = 3311 EMAs (21/50/100) aligned downward — price capped below 3380 RSI still under 60 = no bullish momentum Rejection zone remains valid at 3406–3420 (H4 OB) Strong demand expected at 3340–3352 and extreme at 3310–3288 🔸 LTF Precision (M30, M15) Price compressing around 3365–3372 RSI around 56 → indecision No bullish HH above 3380 = still within bearish control EMA flattening → prepare for trap setups around NY open 🧭 Trade Scenarios 🔻 Sell Zone – 3406–3420 H4 OB, FVG top, liquidity above 3405 Entry: 3412 SL: 3426 TP1: 3312 TP2: 3288 TP3: 3265 🧠 Wait for sweep or strong bearish reaction — no early entries. ⚠️ Flip Zone – 3360–3380 No-trade zone: EMA cluster + mid-FVG Only use for confirmations, not entries 🟢 Buy Zone – 3340–3352 OB + demand + Fib retracement Entry: 3348 SL: 3334 TP1: 3448 TP2: 3472 TP3: 3490 🟢 Buy Zone – 3310–3288 Below LL sweep (3311) Deep liquidity + OB demand Entry: 3298 SL: 3280 TP1: 3365 TP2: 3405 TP3: 3440 📍 Key Structural Levels – June 23 Level Type Role 3460 Bull Trap Limit Irrational spike area 3445 FOMC Unfilled wick – trap zone 3426 Sell Zone Risk protection above OB 3418 H4 LH Confirmed bearish structure 3410 OB Midpoint Micro-rejection inside OB 3395 Previous HH Inducement target 3384 FVG Top Minor LTF rejection 3360–3380 ⚠️ Flip Zone MA/FVG compression – avoid entries 3352 OB entry edge Buy Zone 1 upper limit 3340 OB base Buy Zone 1 key level 3311 H4 LL Confirms bear structure 3300 Round Level Psychological + liquidity 3288 OB base Final demand structure zone 3265 Final TP Bearish extension only ✅ Final Action Plan 📉 Stay bearish below 3380 unless a clean HH + OB support forms ⚠️ Avoid trading inside 3360–3380 flip zone during NY PMI data 🛒 Longs valid only from 3340 or 3310 with confirmation (RSI, PA, OB) 🧠 Focus on structure integrity and clean OB rejections only 💬 Will you fade the 3412 OB or wait for the sniper bounce at 3348? 🔔 Follow and 🚀@GoldFxMinds for premium breakdowns, macro updates, and real-time sniper execution guidance. 🔹 Disclosure: As part of Trade Nation’s Influencer Program, we receive monthly compensation for using their charts. GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldFxMinds
GOLD → Risk zone 3340. Sell-off after rallyFX:XAUUSD , after breaking out of its accumulation phase, rallied towards the 3400 zone of interest, but failed to reach liquidity and reversed, selling off its gains due to economic uncertainty. In my opinion, the market is unexpectedly subdued and has reacted very weakly to geopolitical problems in the Middle East. The market has digested the news of US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and is awaiting PMI data from the US and the eurozone, Fed statements, US GDP and other macroeconomic data. The uncertainty factor has done its job... Participants fear further escalation of the conflict, but so far Iran has refrained from taking drastic steps, which has reduced demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Geopolitics and macro statistics remain in focus. Technically, gold is trading above 3340 (in the buy zone). A retest of the liquidity zone is possible, and if buyers keep the market above 3340-3350, the price may continue to rise. Support levels: 3347, 3342, 3320 Resistance levels: 3366, 3396 On D1, the key level is the 3340-3347 area. At the moment, we are seeing a sell-off and a move to retest support. Accordingly, a false breakdown and price holding above 3340, followed by a change in character and a breakdown of the bullish structure, will hint at growth. But if the reaction at 3340 is weak and the market continues to storm this support, then in this case, the metal could drop to 3300 Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
ADAUSDT → Bear market. Support breakdownBINANCE:ADAUSDT.P is in the distribution phase after exiting consolidation. The coin continues to update local lows within a downtrend. Technically, the cryptocurrency market is in stagnation/correction, as there is no bullish driver yet. Bitcoin is currently consolidating but continues to shoot local downward impulses, which generally has a negative impact on coins. ADA is entering a distribution phase of accumulation formed in the range of 0.62 - 0.71. If the bears keep the price below 0.62-0.6, ADA may well test the intermediate bottom of 0.5364-0.51 Resistance levels: 0.61, 0.62 Support levels: 0.5993, 0.5364 Focus on 0.61 and the local level of 0.5993. Price consolidation below this zone could confirm the bearish nature of the market, which could lead to another decline. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
7
6/23/25 - $hims - Time to re-accumulate6/23/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:HIMS Time to re-accumulate - NYSE:NVO are playing dirty and this is a tell and low-key admission that NYSE:HIMS holds all the power - distribution is key... look at NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:AAPL , $AMZN. he who holds the customer relationship makes the rules - there is no longer a major advantage in developing pharma, the majority of solutions can now roll off patents and/or be compounded *legally* - so what you're seeing here is cartel-like behavior from a slow motion train wreck NYSE:NVO - which i've liked the past - but ultimately the stock will lose to names like NYSE:HIMS (and other pharma too). - so will they get sued? who tf cares. we'll buy more - this is a rule of 40 winner, even if law suit is large, it won't affect the story and growth. and major kudos to Andrew (the rockstar CEO) that put out this tweet. this is a founder-leader you want to put your portfolio behind when the opportunities arise. i'll be looking for oppty in the coming days/weeks to own more of this and would consider making it a decent size LT position at the right valuation, perhaps if we get back into the mid 30s. but i'm not holding my breath. this stock is scarce paper. and you know what happens to scarce paper in a USD ponzi scheme that is unwinding day by day by day. Andrew's post: x.com V
NYSE:HIMSLong
by VROCKSTAR
6
Gold Market Analysis: Key Levels and Trends 23/June/2025 Core Themes 1. Geopolitical Drivers: Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, are fueling gold's "flight to safety" narrative. Analysts anticipate sustained demand for gold amid potential regional conflict. 2. Technical Bullish Bias: Gold is in an uptrend, respecting key support levels and forming higher lows within an ascending channel. Breakouts above resistance (e.g., $3,439–$3,501) could validate further gains. 3. Correction vs. Continuation: While short-term pullbacks are expected (e.g., testing $3,320–$3,200), the broader bullish structure suggests corrections are temporary. --- Key Technical Levels Support: - Immediate: $3,320 (lower channel boundary) - Deeper: $3,200 (critical level; break could extend corrections) Resistance: - Short-term: $3,378–$3,382 (upper channel boundary) - Mid-term: $3,439 (previous resistance; target for bullish continuation) - Long-term: $3,501 (potential next resistance; requires strong momentum) Fibonacci Retracements: - 23.6%: $3,360–$3,370 (support zone for long entries) - 50.0%: $3,400 (conservative take-profit target) - 61.8%: $3,415 (key golden ratio level; likely Wave (5) peak) - 100%: $3,435–$3,440 (aggressive target; upper channel line) --- Trade Setups & Strategies 1. Long Entry: - Target: $3,400–$3,435 (Fibonacci extensions) - Stop-Loss: Below $3,315 (break of key support) - Entry Zone: $3,360–$3,370 (near ascending channel support and 23.6% Fib) 2. Bullish Confirmation: - Breakout Above $3,378: Validates continuation toward $3,439 and $3,501. - Volume Increase: Confirms strength at key levels (e.g., $3,360–$3,370). --- Risk Management & Key Risks - Stop-Loss Placement: - Longs: Below $3,315 (protects against deeper corrections). - Shorts: Above $3,350 (avoids false breakouts). - Volatility: Monitor geopolitical developments (e.g., U.S.-Iran escalation) that could trigger rapid price swings. - Correction Risks: If gold fails to hold $3,320, a drop to $3,200 may occur, requiring tighter stops. --- Fundamental Outlook - Safe-Haven Demand: Rising tensions are likely to sustain gold's appeal. - Inflation & Rate Outlook: Persistent inflation concerns and potential rate cuts (if economic data weakens) could further support gold. - Negotiation Risk: De-escalation or Iran's concessions may pause the bullish momentum, leading to a reversal toward $3,340–$3,320. --- Conclusion Gold is in a strong bullish phase, driven by geopolitical risks and technical structure. Traders should focus on buying dips near $3,320–$3,370 with targets toward $3,439–$3,501. However, monitor the $3,320 support and geopolitical developments closely. If the trend breaks, a retest of $3,200 could follow. Always use stop-losses to manage risk. Final Note: The market is highly volatile, so position sizing and risk management are critical. Stay alert for news updates and technical confirmations (e.g., closes above $3,378)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by teconlab
10
Trade Idea: Sell CADJPY (Short-Term Risk-Off Play) **📉 Trade Idea: Sell CADJPY (Short-Term Risk-Off Play)** **Bias:** 🔻 Bearish (Short-Term) | ⚖️ Medium-Term Neutral **Idea:** Yen getting a safety bid, CAD softening — charts hint a cool-off is coming --- ### **💡 Why Sell?** **🇯🇵 JPY Getting Support:** * Risk-off tone is helping the yen hold ground 🛡️ * Inflation still above 3.5% = not as soft as BoJ sounds 🧯 * Yen tends to perk up in uncertainty — and we’re not short of that globally 🌍 * Traders cautious = safe-haven flows quietly leaning JPY’s way 🕊️ **🇨🇦 CAD Facing Pressure:** * Oil pulling back = bad for CAD 🛢️📉 * BoC leaning dovish → interest rate edge fading 🎈 * Global risk jitters + soft data could dent CAD short-term 🧊 --- ### **📊 Technical Feel (Objective & Intuitive):** * **Price looks overextended:** Big moves lately — but candles are losing momentum 🛑 * **Stalling near recent highs:** Feels like buyers ran out of fuel just short of a breakout ⛽ * **RSI cooling off:** Not screaming reversal, but clearly backing off the highs 📉 * **MACD histogram shrinking:** Momentum tapering — not collapsing, just softening 🔻 * **Lower highs forming on intraday charts:** Nothing aggressive — just cracks showing 📉 * **Bearish rejection wicks starting to stack:** Subtle signs of hesitation at the top 🕯️ --- ### **⚠️ Invalidation Clue:** > If price snaps higher with strength and breaks structure — bulls still in control 🔼 > Until then, short-term correction looks likely --- ### **🎯 Summary:** CADJPY looks due for a breather. Yen is quietly gaining on risk-off, and CAD’s not convincing right now. Momentum’s fading — and sellers may get a **short-term edge** before trend resumes or stalls.
Short
by Wainainarobert
Buy Idea: LMT @ around $480This war is really happening right now between Israel, Iran, and the United States. Because of this, countries are spending more money on weapons, defense systems and military gear. The U.S. and its friends are about to increase their defense budgets and Lockheed Martin is one of the biggest companies that supplies fighter jets, missiles, and radar systems. A buy signal just appeared near $480 and the stock has strong support around $454. That means it has a good chance of going up without falling too much. If this uptrend continues, we could see the price go back to $600 or even higher. This is a good time to buy because everything is working in Lockheed’s favour right now. The war is growing, defence spending is rising and national security is a big topic. Lockheed could also win more government contracts soon.
NYSE:LMTLong
by una_exp
Bitcoin Breakout Incoming? Flash PMI & CME Gap in FocusBitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to fall ( about -4%) after the news that the US was involved in the Middle East tension , but it has risen again with good momentum . Do you think Bitcoin will go below the previous bottom($98,200) again on the 1-hour time frame? Bitcoin is trading in the Resistance zonezone($102,130-$100,700) and near the Resistance lines . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it appears that a Double Three Correction(WXY) has been completed near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Also, the first 5 microwaves of the Impulsive have now been completed . --------------------------------- Bitcoin traders should monitor today’s Flash Manufacturing (expected 51.1) and Services PMI (expected 52.9) . Both forecasts are already lower than last month’s figures (51.3 and 54.8) , but I see a chance they come in even weaker. Why weaker PMI is likely? Slowing retail sales and softer labor data point to reduced consumer demand. High interest rates are starting to pressure both the production and services sectors. Regional Fed surveys already showed a cooling in business activity. If the PMI prints below expectations, the market may anticipate a more dovish Fed, pushing the dollar( TVC:DXY ) down and giving Bitcoin a potential bullish boost. --------------------------------- I expect Bitcoin to move towards filling the CME Gap($103,730-$102,275) after breaking the Resistance lines , and if the Resistance zone($104,380-$103,060) is broken, we should expect further increases. Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $103,391-$103,934 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $100,800-$100,250 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $97,691-$97,241 Note: Increased tensions in the Middle East or new and important news surrounding this news can make the analysis invalid, so be more careful with capital management. Note: If Bitcoin can touch $98,170 , we can expect more dumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
20
Gold is moving upward. Testing the ultimate pressure.Gold opened high at around 3397 and then quickly retreated. After hitting the lowest point of around 3346 in the European session, it continued to rebound. It fluctuated in a large range around 3360-80 many times, which also added a lot of confusion to the market. After retreating to around 3355 again, it continued to move upward, reaching a high of around 3389. At present, the market still has upward momentum, and the key pressure above is maintained at 3400, which is also the previous high point and the last line of defense for the bears. If this position continues to be broken, the bulls may continue to move upward without resistance in the later period, with the target price around 3430-3450. The key support below is still maintained in the range of 3355-3340. Judging from the current market, the short-term fluctuations may continue to expand, and the ultimate target above is maintained at around 3400. This position is likely to be broken, but the probability of continuing to rise is small. The current bulls may still be in a form of enticing more. Operation strategy: Short near 3395, stop loss 3410, profit near 3375. If it continues to break below 3370, it will be seen around 3340. If it breaks through the extreme pressure level of 3400, we need to consider stopping the loss in time. .
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Quaid_1
BRK.B Long The stock has been trading within a defined channel for nearly five years, suggesting it may be approaching a pivotal bottom. If this turns out to be the case, we could have the opportunity to acquire additional shares of this outstanding company at more attractive prices. It's crucial to stay vigilant and monitor any developments related to this stock, as market conditions can change rapidly. By keeping a close watch on the company's performance and any news that may impact its valuation, we can capitalize on potential buying opportunities that arise. Investing in a fundamentally strong company at lower price points could significantly benefit our long-term investment strategy.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by geegnimag
6/23/25 - $coin - If u like $crcl u should like $coin better6/23/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:COIN If u like NYSE:CRCL u should like NASDAQ:COIN better - hard enough to own a lot of things long - but NASDAQ:COIN basically keeps majority of the economics it generates w/ NYSE:CRCL 's chitstablecoin called USDC - nevermind it's trading at a similar valuation with fin metrics that are literally MULTIPLES larger (3-5x) than NYSE:CRCL - anyway. - buy NYSE:CRCL at your own peril. and perhaps the more obvious pair here than even NYSE:FI would be long NASDAQ:COIN and short NYSE:CRCL (I have put this on FWIW) - the idea would be to use NYSE:CRCL short profits to either move into cheaper NASDAQ:COIN or $obtc. if NYSE:CRCL continues to run, i'd guess the beta on NASDAQ:COIN is now going to catch a wind as well and IV is a whole lot cheaper (on the long side) and the nominal px's for each r roughly similar $300 - gl to all. - stay frosty :) V
NASDAQ:COIN
by VROCKSTAR
Beeline Holdings | BLNE | Long at $0.72**This is a VERY risky penny stock. Please do not invest if you are risk averse.** Beeline Holdings NASDAQ:BLNE Book value = $5.00-$6.00 Revenue past 12 months: $5.21 million (grew by 27.4% over the past year) Debt-to-equity: 0.21x (low) Insiders purchased almost $500k in shares in the past 6 months and volume increasing 6 million float, 1.96% short interest, 0.85 days to cover This is purely a gamble play based on value and insider purchases. Thus, at $0.72, NASDAQ:BLNE is in a personal buy zone. Targets: $1.00 $1.25
NASDAQ:BLNELong
by WorthlessViews
Embraer–Soaring on Regional Jet Demand &Global Defense ExpansionCompany Overview: Embraer NYSE:ERJ is a top-tier aerospace manufacturer, delivering commercial jets, executive aircraft, and cutting-edge defense platforms. With a dominant position in the sub-150-seat market, it's primed to benefit from structural aviation tailwinds. Key Catalysts: $680B Market Opportunity 📈 Global demand forecast for 10,500 regional jets/turboprops over the next 20 years. Embraer, with its E-Jet family, is positioned to capture meaningful share amid rising demand for regional connectivity and fleet efficiency. Defense Momentum 🛡️ C-390 Millennium sales to Portugal and the Netherlands enhance NATO exposure. Recent A-29N Super Tucano contracts expand Embraer’s tactical footprint, with follow-on order potential from NATO allies. Resilience to Tariffs + Margin Protection ⚙️ Q1 results unaffected by new U.S. tariffs, thanks to global supply chain integration and high U.S.-sourced content. Ongoing cost-cutting and trade advocacy expected to preserve margins. Investment Outlook: Bullish Case: We remain bullish on ERJ above $44.00–$45.00. Upside Target: $72.00–$74.00, supported by commercial demand tailwinds, defense diversification, and cost discipline. ✈️ Embraer is flying high—with commercial orders climbing and global defense contracts in formation. #Embraer #ERJ #Aerospace #RegionalJets #DefenseContracts #NATO #AviationMarket #IndustrialStocks #TariffResilience #C390 #SuperTucano #Bullish
NYSE:ERJLong
by Richtv_official