Get started

Fundamental Analysis

BTC Daily Chart Update: Potential Fair Value Gaps and Key LevelsHey traders! 👋 Taking a look at the daily chart of BTC, we can see two significant Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) still waiting to be filled. 🧐 1️⃣ The First FVG is located at a crucial level right around the Golden Pocket. This is a strong support zone that could be a game-changer. If BTC manages to fill this gap and rebound on the support, the next question is: What happens next? 🤔 2️⃣ The Second FVG is just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level, which could provide additional support or resistance depending on how price reacts. So, what do you think? Will BTC fill these gaps and push higher, or are we going to see a rejection at these key levels? 🚀 Let me know your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments below! 🔥 Don't forget to follow for more updates and trading insights. Happy trading, everyone! 💰📈
by GetSparx
3-MONTH THE SQUID GAME II 'JUBILEE'. WHAT IS NOW & WHAT IS NEXTIt's gone three months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. 3 months, really? 😸😸😸) since "The Squid Game" Season II has been released on December 26, 2024. Nearly month later comrade Trump entered The White House (again). Still, everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t. Here's a short educational breakdown, what we think about all of that, at our beloved @PandorraResearch Team. Trading can easily resemble gambling when approached without discipline, strategy, or proper risk management. Here are key reasons to avoid gambling-like trading behaviors, supported by real-world examples: 1. Lack of Strategy and Emotional Decision-Making Trading becomes gambling when decisions are based on emotions, intuition, or market hype rather than thorough analysis. For instance, Geraldine lost £15,000 on a spread-betting platform after attending a workshop that taught ineffective strategies. She believed the platform profited from her losses, highlighting how impulsive, uneducated decisions can lead to significant financial harm. Similarly, traders who overtrade or ignore risk management often experience devastating losses, as they rely on luck rather than a structured plan. 2. Overleveraging and One-Sided Bets Overleveraging—opening excessively large positions—is a common gambling behavior in trading. This approach increases stress and the likelihood of substantial losses. A trader who lost $400,000 on a single Robinhood bet exemplifies this. He overinvested in a call option, hoping for a quick profit, but the trade turned against him, wiping out nearly all his capital. Opening one-sided bets or adding to losing positions further compounds risks, as traders attempt to recover losses through increasingly risky moves. 3. Ignoring Stop Losses and Risk Management Failing to set stop losses or refusing to exit losing trades is another form of gambling. Traders who cling to their biases and avoid cutting losses often face irreversible damage to their portfolios. For example, many traders refuse to take stop losses, leading to catastrophic losses that erode their confidence and capital. This behavior mirrors the destructive cycle of gambling addiction, where individuals chase losses in hopes of a turnaround. 4. Psychological and Financial Consequences Gambling-like trading can lead to severe psychological and financial consequences. Harry, a trader with a gambling addiction, repeatedly lost money despite asking his trading platform to restrict his account. His inability to control his trading behavior highlights the addictive nature of high-risk trading and its potential to ruin lives. Similarly, excessive gambling has been linked to increased debt, bankruptcy, and mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression. 5. Long-Term Sustainability Smart trading focuses on steady gains and minimal losses, whereas gambling relies on luck and high-risk bets. Traders who chase big wins often lose their profits in subsequent trades, perpetuating a cycle of losses. Studies show that frequent trading, driven by overconfidence or problem gambling, reduces investment returns and increases financial instability. In conclusion, avoiding gambling-like trading requires discipline, education, and a well-defined strategy. Real-world examples demonstrate the dangers of emotional decision-making, overleveraging, and ignoring risk management. By adopting a structured approach and prioritizing long-term sustainability, traders can mitigate risks and avoid the pitfalls of gambling. -- Best 'squid' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
3/27/25 - $nvo - obvious at $70... 10% size3/27/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NVO obvious at $70... 10% size - at btc conf in miami so have been hoping for a quiet week. well. whatever. another day in trumptopia. but alas, we can't tell the market what we want. so the game today is just don't make big mistakes and try and find interesting asymmetric oppties. - i literally flipped my NVO after last post two days in and as it proceeded to rip into $80s thought "well shoot, at least i made $, which is the goal... but i paper hands that one" - but we're back. even lower. $70. - wegovey vs. ozempic... these 18x PE multiples r hitting that penjamin like it's going outta style. - when i look at LLY, which is ostensibly the mkt's "favorite" in the GLP/weight loss category it's hard to ignore the fact that financials MORE OR LESS are similar and multiples are 2x higher. - so while idk if tariffs, the euros who trade a bit more scared, greenland stuffs, GLP "share" question marks etc. etc. are affecting the day to day. - but at nearly 4% fcf yield, ROICs akin to the biggest tech moats, orthogonal to US/chips correlation (nevermind the geo), drugs like this being secular winners (and these guys do have pole positions)... it's pretty obvious again. - have started to play some of the 2027 ITM expires leveraged anywhere from 2 to 3-1 so i don't need to neck out. ideally we get one more flush to the mid 60s and i can really size this up. but honestly, this is a pretty obvious LT buy zone and i'll adjust the strike accordingly based on the ST day to day. - what chu think anon? wegovey and chill? V
NYSE:NVOLong
by VROCKSTAR
$DELL Ready for a Dumpster Dive?NYSE:DELL I got long on this one Feb 14th and I was stopped out just a few days later. I am looking at it again because they are a big supplier for AI hardware needs, and I think they are over sold. (Just because I think that does not make it so.) Here is what I am looking at. Today’s candle is a clear rejection of heading lower (at least for today). If we can get a follow through candle tomorrow, I will look to take this long with a clearly defined risk just below today’s candle. Which if it follows through would be a nice higher low. If you like this idea, please make it your own and make sure it fits your trading plan.
NYSE:DELLLong
by jaxdog
Banxico Cuts Rates Aggressively In line with market expectations, the Bank of Mexico unanimously decided to implement another consecutive rate cut during its March 2025 monetary policy meeting. The 50-basis-point reduction brought the policy rate down to 9.00%, marking a forceful continuation of the monetary normalization cycle, one that remains behind its regional Latin American peers. The central bank’s decision mainly reflects a relatively contained inflationary environment and growing concerns about downside economic risks, including the possibility of a technical recession following a visibly weak first quarter. Headline inflation stood at 3.67% in the first half of March, providing Banxico with the necessary room to ease its monetary stance without significantly compromising its 3% inflation target. The Mexican economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. The recent tariff threats from the Trump administration, particularly those targeting imported vehicles and auto parts, could exacerbate Mexico’s economic fragility, given its high dependency on bilateral trade with the U.S. These tariffs, set to take effect in early April, pose a significant threat to the country's economic and monetary stability. Previously, the foreign exchange market has responded favorably to reversals of initial U.S. tariff announcements, but the persistence and materialization of these threats would place further pressure on the Mexican peso. The automotive sector, a pillar of Mexico’s export structure, is already facing serious challenges, with a significant drop in exports in February, underscoring the country’s vulnerability to external trade restrictions. Despite these internal and external pressures, Banxico has managed to strike a relative balance, cutting rates to help stimulate economic activity while maintaining a sufficiently tight monetary stance to guard against potential inflation risks. According to the Governing Board, this approach is consistent with the trajectory needed to ensure an orderly and sustained convergence of inflation toward the 3% target by the third quarter of 2026. For now, one notion circulating in the markets is that the Mexican central bank may keep rates above the neutral level as a safeguard against tariff-related uncertainty and other potential external shocks. This reflects a strategic caution, aiming to balance economic stimulus with financial stability. Looking ahead, the outlook remains complex. Banxico may continue making similar adjustments in upcoming meetings, always contingent on the evolution of inflation and both domestic and global economic activity. Ultimately, Mexico is facing a critical juncture where monetary policy decisions will play a key role in mitigating current uncertainty and supporting a more stable economic environment.
by Pepperstone
AUD/JPY 1D possible scenario Technical Analysis 1D The pair is testing a long-term downtrend resistance. A breakout could signal further upside. Key Levels: Support: 95.52 Resistance: 98.49 | 102.62 | 109.40 Fundamental Factors: Australian Dollar Strength: Driven by commodity demand and potential RBA rate decisions. Japanese Yen Weakness: BoJ’s ultra-loose policy keeps the yen under pressure. Risk Sentiment: AUD/JPY correlates with market risk appetite; stronger equities could support upside. A breakout above 95.52 may open the path toward 98.49.
Long
by TotoshkaTrades
3.28 Gold Breaks Point, Falls Back to Support Long PositionsOn Thursday (March 27), affected by the news that US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imported cars, global trade tensions further escalated, market risk aversion heated up, and gold prices once again approached the record high set last week. Fundamentals: Gold fell from its pre-US high. The decline supports the long position view. The new US tariffs have exacerbated market tensions, and PCE data will become the next focus of attention. The current market is active, and both long and short sides are engaged in fierce competition around key resistance levels. The dual drive of technical and fundamental factors has significantly amplified the volatility of gold prices. The cumulative net inflow of gold ETFs in the first quarter of 2025 has reached 155 tons, and the total holdings have climbed to the peak since September 2023. In the previous trading day alone, the scale of a single-day increase of 23 tons set a record since 2022. The unexpected growth of central bank demand for gold purchases and the continued inflow of ETF funds together constitute the "two-wheel drive" for gold's medium- and long-term bullishness. If this trend continues, it will provide sufficient liquidity support for gold prices to break through historical highs. The current price is close to the historical high, and some long profit-taking pressure is gradually accumulating. If the PCE data released on Friday is stronger than expected, or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, it may become the fuse to trigger a pullback Trend: shock upward trend Support: around 3033.00 Resistance: around 3055.50
TVC:GOLD
by AIan_Gold
3
Bitcoin - Why is everyone wrong + Magic Moving AverageWe have so many warning signs that Bitcoin is going to crash significantly in 2025/2026. One of them is this magic 20-weekly moving average. As we can see, the price always respects this dynamic level, and if the price falls below it, it triggers a sell signal. On the other side, if the price rises above it, it triggers a buy signal. The price is currently below it, so this is a bearish signal. The next bad signal is this Elliott Impulse wave. What we can see here is a perfect textbook impulse wave that has been completed. If you are an Elliott Wave trader, you already see that this is a big problem. After such a wave is complete, we are always looking for an ABC correction with a fibonacci retracement tool. Use only these 3 Fibo levels, others do not work properly! Specifically, 0.618 FIB, 0.500 and 0.382 FIB. Bitcoin loves the 0.618 FIB, so there is a pretty huge chance of going down to 32k. But expect a very strong bounce from the 0.382 FIB as well, which is at 52k. Set up your buy orders here, and thank me later! What we can also see on the chart is an unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 34k and 28k. Often the price loves to come back and test these important price actions. This is a great buying confluence with the 0.618 FIB because the FVG is inside this Fibo level. The last thing I want to talk about is this huge blue ascending channel on the weekly chart. This is a representation of this whole uptrend (bull market). You may say that Bitcoin is bullish until this channel holds, yeah, but what we do here is we predict future price action and give you technical analysis. I am giving you this information in advance so you can prepare for the future! Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Xanrox
151
XAU/USD 27.05.2025The sell setup is unfolding just as planned—patience pays. We entered shorts from our high-probability zone, and the price is starting to show weakness. As long as the structure holds, we anticipate further downside, with targets at $3,045 and deeper liquidity zones below. Bulls may attempt a shakeout, but as long as key levels remain protected, the sell-side narrative stays intact. Now it's all about trade management—secure profits, adjust stops, and let the market do the rest. Stay sharp.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMindsFX
USDJPY - 4H more fall expectedFX:USDJPY - 4H Update 🔻 If you've traded USDJPY in recent years, you're no stranger to the significance of the 150.00 zone. This level has historically acted as a critical resistance and psychological barrier. Now, the pair is trading below this key level and has also broken the ascending channel support on the daily timeframe, signaling that bulls are likely out of the game. The recent drop to 147.00 and bounce toward 151.00 could be setting up the next short opportunity. 📌 What to watch for: A liquidity grab above the 151.50–152.00 zone could occur before the next fall. This aligns with institutional behavior, hunting stops before continuing the trend. We're now in a sell-the-rally phase, watching for confirmations around the red zone. Remember, I previously signaled a short from the 157 zone, which played out beautifully. We’re now gearing up for the next big short, and this setup might just be it. 📉 Stay cautious, wait for price action signals, and trust the structure. 💸 If you’ve missed previous entries, don’t miss what’s coming next! 🔔 Follow for real-time updates and live trade ideas!
Short
by Sober_Trading
7
usdcad still in range ? The USD/CAD is sitting at a critical support level in its rectangular trading range. The VRVP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) shows strong institutional interest right here, and the COT reports suggest leveraged traders aren't aggressively buying USD. This points to a potential bounce or consolidation zone. The daily chart and hourly timeframe are both showing similar signs - we're at a key support where smart money seems to be positioning themselves. It's a classic setup where the market is potentially setting up for a move, but waiting for a clear catalyst. The key is watching how price respects this support level and looking for confirmation of either a bounce or a breakdown. i would want to see a solid rejection of these lower prices or a clean break below. if not the range will confirm for now
Long
by youbicode
1
Strong bullish outlook for the E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQM2025)Nasdaq-100 E-mini Futures (NQM2025) – Technical & Fundamental Analysis Technical Overview: My Daily chart analysis on TradingView highlights a strong bullish outlook for the E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQM2025). Here are the key takeaways: Liquidity Sweep & Support Retest: The recent decline led to a liquidity sweep (LQ SWEEP) at a critical ascending trendline. This suggests a classic stop-hunt scenario where weaker long positions were liquidated before stronger buyers stepped in. Historical price action indicates that buyers previously entered at similar levels (noted as "Buyers coming in hot here"), reinforcing this demand zone. Bullish Trendline Respect: The long-term ascending trendline has been respected, acting as a dynamic support level. The recent bounce suggests that this level remains intact, further validating the bullish structure. Order Block (OB) & Market Structure Shift (MSS): A previous bearish market structure shift (MSS) led to a short-term decline, but price has since found support and rebounded. The chart suggests a reversion to the upside, targeting prior imbalance zones and liquidity pockets. Projected Path & Targets: The green projection indicates an expectation of higher highs, likely targeting the 21,500 - 22,500 range in the coming weeks. The sell-side liquidity has been cleared, increasing the probability of a bullish move towards the order block resistance near 21,000. Fundamental Confirmation (#EdgeFinder & #COT Data): From a fundamental perspective, the bullish bias is further confirmed by EdgeFinder data and recent Commitment of Traders (COT) reports: Institutional Positioning: The latest COT data shows that institutional traders have increased their net long positions in Nasdaq futures, signaling bullish sentiment. Macroeconomic Factors: Recent economic reports and Fed statements have favored a risk-on environment, benefiting tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq. Earnings season is approaching, with expectations of strong tech sector performance potentially fueling further upside. Conclusion & Market Sentiment: The confluence of technical support, institutional buying, and positive macroeconomic factors strengthens the case for a bullish continuation in Nasdaq-100 futures. The key level to watch is 20,000—if held, the probability of a move towards 21,500 - 22,500 increases significantly. Risk factors include unexpected macroeconomic shifts or stronger-than-expected hawkish Fed rhetoric, which could slow momentum. This is not financial advice, only data analysis. Please consult a qualified financial professional for personalized guidance.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by OatesTrades94
BTC DAILY - MA compression On the daily timeframe something very interesting is happening. A convergence of price around the blue KEY S/R is very interesting when you factor in what the moving averages are doing around this level also. 1D 200 EMA is completely flat having lost all of its momentum with the months of chop and then the sell-off into current levels. For a bullrun to be credible you want to see price above this level and a steady/steep slope up. Due to the lack of direction of this moving average price is able to climb above and drop below very easily and therefor it is neither support nor resistance until there is a trend. 1D 25 EMA is a different story, now that BTC has put in a local top and trending down, the 25 EMA is resistance but has been flipped in the last few days with price bouncing off the level 4 days in a row. This is good news for the bulls but the longer we linger here there is more chance dropping back under it. Diagonal resistance as simple as it is has 4 points of contact and will be a big point of resistance and one many traders will be keeping an eye on. On the lower timeframes we're seeing a bullish channel, a loss of this channel would be a huge red flag and a catalyst for a risk off event IMO, continuing the downtrend.
by ProR35
4
Mexican Peso Under PressureThe Mexican peso has posted three consecutive sessions of losses against the U.S. dollar, signaling a marked erosion in investor confidence. Particularly striking is the fact that this decline has occurred even as the dollar trades in negative territory on Thursday, highlighting the inherent weakness of the peso during the session. Two key factors appear to be driving this downward trend: on the one hand, markets are pricing in an aggressive new rate cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), and on the other, emerging external trade risks are further clouding the outlook for the local currency. Later today, Banxico is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points, maintaining its aggressive monetary policy easing cycle. If confirmed, this would mark the second consecutive cut of this magnitude, lowering the cost of money to 9% from the current 9.5%. It's worth recalling that during the last tightening cycle, the rate reached a historic high of 11.25%, meaning the cumulative easing would total 225 basis points with this cut. This decision comes in a context marked by persistently high inflation observed in March and continued economic weakness. While looser monetary policy aims to stimulate economic activity, it also adds downward pressure on the peso, already weakened by external factors. Compounding the situation is a challenging trade backdrop. Mexico posted a trade surplus of $2.21 billion in February, reversing January’s deficit. However, this surplus is worrisome, as it was driven largely by a sharp drop in imports rather than a strong rebound in exports, underscoring a structural weakness in domestic demand. Particularly alarming is the performance of the automotive sector, with exports falling 15.2% in February. Shipments to the United States—Mexico’s main trading partner—declined 10.7%, while exports to other international markets plunged 40.2%. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the recent announcement by President Donald Trump of a 25% tariff on vehicle and auto parts imports, generating renewed uncertainty around the future of Mexico-U.S. trade relations. The combination of internal factors such as weak domestic demand, Banxico’s monetary easing cycle, and mounting international trade uncertainty—particularly in a key sector like automotive—paints a complex and challenging outlook for the Mexican peso in the coming months. Thus, markets appear to be anticipating that this storm could continue weighing on the peso, increasing the risk of further depreciation against the U.S. dollar. The Mexican currency is undoubtedly in a vulnerable position, awaiting greater clarity from both domestic and external fronts. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
2024-2026 Exploration of 5-100x Web3 cryptos and Stock Targe【Old article on 2024-3-5】-republish due to private indicators before Time flies, nearly four years have passed since we wrote a similar article, and we feel quite satisfied as 95% of the predictions have been met. Except for Boeing, which surprisingly didn't take off, Bilibili ($19), BTC ($3800), Tiger $3, and PDD ($19) achieved the expected 5-10x growth within two years. The subsequent performances of ACH,UOS, NEAR, and ALGO provided even greater surprises with 10-80x gains. However, I continuously reflect and hope to improve my judgment since, compared to readers who directly read the articles, those of us immersed in the sea of information sometimes have our initial judgments clouded by various external factors. We prefer to express our views at relatively low or high points in advance, allowing time to silently validate these opinions. Real-time perspectives are highly attractive but also constantly at risk, demanding much energy and health. Many have faced health warnings, and we hope everyone remains healthy and happy in 2024. I lean towards identifying the start and end points, then trusting the driver and natural progression for everything in between. Returning to the topic, it has been over two and a half years since a similar article, and I will discuss a few targets and core catalysts I believe are underestimated: 1.Bitcoin (BTC) BINANCE:BTCUSD Introduction: Born in January 2009 as a hedge against inflation after the 2008 financial crisis, BTC has experienced nearly 16 years. Its underlying logic and blockchain technology have birthed foundational blockchains like Ethereum, ADA, SOL, AVAX, CFX, and Algo. BTC's development attributes have expanded potential applications, such as Stacks and RGB protocols. My ultimate expectation for BTC is simple: it could be valued highly just as a new E-GOLD for decades to come. If its ecosystem applications further explode, it could become one of this century's leading assets. Key Catalysts: The 2024 halving, reducing block rewards to 3.125 and resulting in a yearly inflation of about 0.782%, which is lower than the inflation rates of most developed countries. The next wave of funding entering the industry could be expedited by the SEC’s approval of ETFs, the alleviation of sell pressure from Grayscale's repositioning and MGOT, and traditional financial risks causing forced rescue actions by BTC-holding companies to pass. ● Expected Valuation: $200,000 MC: 4.2 trillion USD, marking the beginning of a new world, extensively unfolding application scenarios Reminder: It's important to emphasize that long-term expected valuations do not imply a straight path upwards from current price points. There might be an average upward trend, but short-term intense volatility is possible. Always remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. This reminder is also placed here for additional caution. 2.Telegram Ime ( POLONIEX:LIMEUSDT Lime) & TON ( BINANCE:TONUSDT TON) Introduction Ime Messenger is a special version of Telegram, integrating functionalities such as a multi-chain wallet, enabling direct transfers of various blockchain assets like BTC, ETH, AVAX, BNB, Polygon, Mantle, AVAX, etc., among Telegram friends. It incorporates features like Binance Pay, direct Google Translate in Twitter and TG conversations, and optimizes Telegram's overall layout and usability. Telegram accounts and chat histories, along with other crucial data, can be directly utilized in the Ime version of Telegram without the need for a new account. Similarly, chat histories in the IME version will automatically sync with the original Telegram version, facilitating easy switching. The Ime version essentially acts as an integrator, merging the Web3 world into the TG ecosystem, with TON leaning towards the chain ecosystem. TON is a native public blockchain ecosystem developed on top of Telegram, serving as an inherited blockchain project from TG's original project team. It introduces more development possibilities and diversity to Telegram's native ecosystem growth. ● Core Logic: Within three years, the user base of the Ime version increased from 2 million to 10 million users, a 500% increase. The friendly relationship with Telegram's founding team enables seamless connection to Telegram's 700 million users. The latest multi-chain Token group red packet function uses Lime as the Gas fee, which will greatly benefit the project's operation and promotion if more convenient modes are optimized in the future. Ime's multi-chain integration feature can help project parties integrate into the Telegram ecosystem faster. Currently, LIME's FDV fluctuates between $5M and $10M, far below the valuation of many primary market projects. TON, as TG's native underlying public blockchain, ranks at the forefront in terms of operational level and market promotion. It can be directly used in the original version of TG, reducing the teaching cost. Although it doesn't support multi-chain, the wallet is a single-chain wallet in the form of a dialogue box. TON itself also has enough potential, and its FDV has surpassed $10 billion, indicating the market's expectations for Telegram. ● Keys to Launch: Ime Lime: Due to the presence of many hardcore tech personnel from Russia and Ukraine, the involvement of core operational PR is needed to enhance the project's self-marketing capability. Further optimization of the TG group members' ability to freely use the red packet function to send various TOKENs as rewards to group members. More optimization of TG functionalities to be utilized. Further support and policies from Russia towards blockchain applications. TON: A more lenient regulatory stance from the SEC towards the official Telegram TON. Collaboration and output of SocialFi Killer-level projects on the chain. An increase in GameFi entering through TG as a portal. ● Expected Valuation: Lime: Current MC FDV: $5.7M, Expected FDV: 3B-5B TON: Current MC FDV: $MUN:10B, Expected FDV: $60B 3.Conflux (CFX) BINANCE:CFXUSDT ● Basic Introduction: Conflux is a Layer 1 public blockchain supported by a team that includes a Turing Award winner and technical advisors from Tsinghua University's Yao Class, aimed at long-term development platforms for dApps, e-commerce, Web 3, and metaverse infrastructures. Its Tree-Graph consensus mechanism, which combines Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithms, is considered one of the most prominent purely domestic projects in my opinion. ● Core Logic: Conflux's unique Tree-Graph consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, driven by a technology-focused team, ensuring smoothness and convenience comparable to high-valuation blockchain projects like SOL and ETH. It aligns quickly with the mainstream development pace of Web3, waiting only for further opening and an increase in active users to unlock significant potential. Trendy applications are gradually making their way onto CFX. ● Keys to Launch: Further support and liberalization for blockchain public chain applications and the metaverse by mainland China.Further popularization of the public chain as a pilot test in China's Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions. More official cooperation and implementation with institutions like CITIC, Xiaohongshu, leading to the complete disappearance of traditional capital suppression. Gradual maturity of Conflux's own development and formal, successful support for BTC L2. ● Expected Valuation: Current MC FDV of CFX: Fluctuating around $0.9B, Expected FDV: $36B-$80B 4.Opulous (OPUL) KUCOIN:OPULUSDT ● Basic Introduction: A music RWA+DeFi project, where RWA has already achieved application cooperation with singers. Investors can participate in purchasing a portion of album rights with OPUL to earn subsequent album revenue shares from the artist. The new feature, Opulous OLOAN, creates a unique bridge between RWA and the music industry. By staking USDC in the pool, it provides funding for musicians and earns extra income on the staked USDC. OVAULT is a unique staking pool on the Opulous platform that allows you to stake USDC to access a diverse music library. This library, curated by Opulous music experts, features popular and high-performing songs. Participating in OVAULT not only grants access to this music library but also rewards, offering a way to engage with the music industry and profit from staking. ● Core Logic: The company has a rich network of core music resources, with dittos being a music collaboration company of ED Sheeran, Overall, Opulous maintains a relatively leading position in market rhythm control, ranking as one of the more playful project parties on the Algorand and Arb chains. The pressure from private placements has been fully released. ● Key to Launch: The further popularization of music applications, as well as the actual revenue generated by high-profit artists. ● Expected Valuation: OPUL current MC FDV fluctuates around $50M-100M, with an expected FDV of $MUN:10B-$30B 5.Bilibili (BILI) NASDAQ:BILI ● Basic Introduction: A video creation and live streaming platform, a haven for secondary elements, and a platform concentrated with young purchasing power, which has invested in a bunch of enterprises leading to poor financial reports in recent years. Thus, the stock price has plummeted from its peak, so let's just drink to that. ● Core Logic: Currently, the only platform in China that seems capable of competing with YouTube. Gaming may catch up to the era of Web3 entry points. High user stickiness, but consumer rights are currently somewhat limited to anime series. ● Key to Launch: Encourage more original creative educational videos, as most Chinese videos now are summary-based, and original content is much less compared to YouTube. Activating this "wasteland" could be a significant source of revenue for Bili, as many are willing to pay for quality knowledge, but management needs to be stricter to prevent bad money from driving out good. Investments from the past two years are beginning to generate exit profits. Revise the business distribution; the current mix of live streaming and gaming services with the website is a bit odd. ● Expected Valuation: Bili's current valuation: $3.8B MC FDV, with an expected valuation in 5 years of $50-100B. 6.Avalanche / Polygon / Near / Algorand/ Solana CRYPTOCAP:AVAX BINANCE:NEARUSDT COINBASE:MATICUSD BINANCE:ALGOUSDT BINANCE:SOLUSDT ● Basic Introduction: Alt-L1 is a core foundational public blockchain infrastructure. AVAX and Polygon are more akin to Ethereum's sidechains, while Sol / Near / Algo have their own underlying architectures + EVM+BTC virtual machine compatibility or stand-alone projects to enhance compatibility with Ethereum. Each public blockchain has its own unique ecosystem. In 2024, it's more suitable for each chain to be discussed separately in a comprehensive series due to their foundational architectures, which cannot be fully covered here without extending into tens of thousands of words. ● Core Logic: The security of L1's underlying architecture has become increasingly refined. Although there have been debates regarding Sol's foundational security, it's undeniable that Solana has become the largest ecosystem outside of Ethereum, even leading in popularity at times. However, with the initiation of Ethereum's layering series, Ethereum's ecosystem could potentially introduce more gameplay. AVAX, SOL, and Matic are perfect examples of market rhythm mastery, with Near being average in convenience, and Algo being the least market-savvy but having the highest prestige in terms of technical strength and collaborations. The other L1s are advancing similarly, now engaging in mutual competition. After an uninteresting two years, the public chain ecosystem is finally starting to show some vitality again. ● Key to Launch: After global macroeconomic black swan events are thoroughly cleared, the new era's focus will shift further towards AI, blockchain, and informational fields, increasing the exploration desire for reservoirs and funds. LSD, Restaking, Rollup, and various new DeFi gameplay will further penetrate major ecosystems, sparking new value bubbles. ● Expected Valuation: Future MC FDV: AVAX: 150B SOL: 300B ALGO: 60B-150B (300B--- if the team optimizes and gets designated by US policies) NEAR: 50B-100B MATIC: 80B-100B (250B--- if designated by Indian policies) 7.Tiger Brokers (Tiger) NASDAQ:TIGR ● Basic Introduction: A youthful brokerage with excellent trading experience, superb data provision, and UI design, providing ample information on financial reports and data. ● Core Logic: Undervalued, with virtual licenses approved. The support for compliant tokens like USDC for deposit could significantly increase trading volume and financial income. ● Key to Launch: Further relaxation and support for compliant KYC by domestic policies. Overall recovery and accumulation in the financial markets. ● Expected Valuation: Current FDV: 0.58B, Expected FDV: 10-20 B 8.Planetswatch (Planets) ● Basic Introduction: An eco-friendly project monitoring air quality through air sensors, allowing for real-time air quality data transmission via different sensor nodes in exchange for token rewards. ● Core Logic: High early valuation and low circulation rate, with prices significantly dropping due to the bear market and inflation impacts, a common issue for early-stage projects with low circulation rates. ● Key to Launch: Further global emphasis on environmental infrastructure, with Eco projects becoming a focal point in blockchain discussions. ● Expected Valuation: Current MC FDV: 2M, Expected FDV: 20M-200M 9.ContextLogic (Wish) $NASDAQ:WISH NASDAQ:LOGC ● Basic Introduction: Wish is a U.S.-based e-commerce platform founded in 2010 by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang. Its parent company, ContextLogic Inc., is headquartered in San Francisco, USA, primarily selling inexpensive household items, clothing, jewelry, electronics, toys, etc. ● Core Logic: Overhyped by consortia like Goldman Sachs in 2020, leading to a steady fall to the verge of delisting. Prices are near low, with recent market actions and promotions starting to revive. ● Key to Launch: Further reliance on group buying, especially the expectation of cheap group purchases by the consumption downgrade population. Entry of new major institutions into the acquisition process. Revival in financial reports and business. ● Expected Valuation: Current MC FDV: 0.1B, Expected MC FDV: 2B-10B 10.Waves Enterprises (West) $KUCOIN:WESTUSDT GATEIO:WESTUSDT ● Basic Introduction: Waves Enterprise is an enterprise-grade blockchain platform for building fault-tolerant digital infrastructures. As a hybrid solution, it combines enterprises, service providers, and decentralized applications in a trustless environment, leveraging the advantages of public permissioned blockchain across a wide range of business use cases. Sidechains are used for building private or hybrid infrastructures, storing metadata on the mainnet. The platform is powered by Waves Enterprise System Token ( WEST ), the native utility token for all network operations. ● Core Logic: Enterprise-grade public and private hybrid blockchain protocols may be more easily accepted by traditional enterprises. ● Key to Launch: Further support for blockchain technology from Russia, with traditional oligarchs and consortiums responding to related policies. Further popularization Expected Valuation: Current MC FDV: 2-5M fluctuation, Expected MC FDV: 2B-5B (20-50B--- if designated by Russia) Summary: This article analyzes the long-term potential value of several projects. Some have survived through significant trials and tribulations, and others possess superior fundamentals and philosophies but lack market operation capabilities and are in need of a discerning eye. Therefore, while they have potential, it does not guarantee they will meet expectations, and they may also suffer unexpected setbacks. The global economy has not yet emerged from the mire; in fact, it can be likened to treading on thin ice where the superficial prosperity cannot mask the unresolved core flaws. Certain festering issues and malignancies have yet to be addressed, so even as the future for AI and blockchain seems bright, it's prudent for individuals and institutions to adhere to a set of personal principles. For emerging public chains like SEI, TIA, and Layer 2 solutions, as well as diverse projects like Altlayer, Manta, Dymension, Edenlayer, Zeta involving Restaking, LSD, and other novel mechanisms, the extended lock-up periods of this investment round make early valuations even more challenging to gauge. This tests the responsibility and habits of the project teams since the majority of tokens are still in their hands. If the foundation dumps early, new projects could experience significant setbacks. However, there's also the possibility of projects like TIA achieving "vintage" valuations, though such outcomes are difficult to predict swiftly. The development of the blockchain industry is expected to be relatively bright in the coming years. However, it's important to reiterate the caution stated at the beginning of this article: long-term valuations do not mean a continuous upward trend from current price points. The market could experience intense volatility, similar to a scenario where BTC suddenly drops to 1K and then rebounds to $40k, although such an event is highly unlikely. If one can maintain a healthy position in such scenarios, there should be no cause for concern. Remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. Try to avoid or minimize engagement with contracts unless for entertainment and if you possess sufficient self-discipline. Do Your Own Research (DYOR) remains the primary way to maintain a healthy investment strategy. Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment or financial advice but merely reflects the author's opinions and insights, hoping for mutual learning and progress.
by OuChiBoy
1