Nas100/US100 Short Setup based on Fundamentals
Hello everyone. We have seen the Nasdaq form a new local top at the 22k area and is now heading back down.
There are many reasons why price is falling but remember this only a temporary sell off as the master trend on the highest time frame is up not down.
Today (Friday 20th June) is OPEX. $6.6 Trillion of options are set to expire today and the Max Pain level is 21,500. Price could drive there to render most options worthless.
Institutions and hedge funds have increasingly added short positions or are sitting on the side lines. Indicating lack of buying from the larger players for the time being.
Buying volume is lower than the selling volume at the top of this rally.
We have 2 weeks roughly until trump tarrifs are implemented and not many trade deals have been made.
Iran-Israel conflict with a possible US involvement.
FED is leaning towards a more hawkish approach due to tarrifs but says the US economy is still growing.
How I am looking at this for the near future. In the chart I have marked my entry, My SL, My Max TP and where I would take partials on the way down. I may also even scale in more if I see the opportunity.
Thanks for reading.
Fundamental Analysis
Trade Idea: Long XAUUSD (BUY STOP)1️⃣ Multi-Timeframe Structure
• 1 Hour (Macro):
• Trend: Bullish. 20 SMA is riding above the 50 SMA .
• Price has broken above the prior resistance at 3374.50 and is now retesting it as support.
• 15 Minute (Tactical):
• After a clear push down into 3340.37, price rallied back above 3374.50.
• SMAs have flipped back bullish, and volume during the retest shows absorption of selling pressure.
• 3 Minute (Entry Precision):
• Micro-green candle wicks show a small scratch of buyers stepping in just above 3374.50.
• Momentum is picking up to the upside, but we want confirmation of strength before committing.
⸻
2️⃣ Trade Execution
▶️ Entry: Buy Stop at 3379.50
• Wait for a clean 3 m/15 m push above the short-term swing high (~3379) to confirm buyers are in control.
✂️ Stop Loss: 3374.50
• Just below the broken resistance-turned-support level.
• True structural invalidation of this bullish thesis.
🎯 Take Profit: 3394.50
• Targets the next logical resistance cluster (round number area and prior swing highs) for ~15 pt gain.
Risk-Reward ≈ 1:3 (SL = 5 pts, TP = 15 pts)
⸻
3️⃣ Invalidation & Expiry
❌ Cancel the pending Buy Stop at 3379.50 if either:
1. A full 15 m candle closes below 3374.50 before entry.
2. It’s not triggered by 8:30 AM PST.
Gold’s Future: Contrary to Expectations?With rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, many analysts and global financial institutions have begun betting on a potential increase in gold prices. Some major banks have even raised their forecasts for gold to as high as $4,000 per ounce, raising a critical question: Will gold prices truly rise as expected, or are the markets heading toward a different outcome, one that sees gold’s future moving contrary to expectations?
Recent history has taught us much about gold’s behavior during times of crisis. Investors often turn to gold during heightened turmoil be it political, economic, or even health-related, because it is considered one of the most prominent safe havens and a key hedge against inflation.
Regarding the latest political tensions, gold has shown short-term positive reactions, often spiking in response to unfolding events. However, once markets absorb the impact, prices typically stabilize or partially retreat awaiting new developments or an escalation that could reignite momentum. This scenario played out in recent weeks during Middle East tensions, specifically on June 13, 2025, when gold rose by about 1.92% in a single day, only to drop 2.99% shortly after increasing all its gains.
When comparing the current situation to past events, a familiar pattern emerges. For instance, during the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, gold prices initially surged but then started to disregard the ongoing war. A similar reaction occurred with trade tariff decisions imposed by the U.S. president where gold responded briefly to each new headline, only to retreat thereafter.
In summary, gold responded to the latest Middle East developments with a slight uptick but soon absorbed the tension and returned to a more stable state awaiting a potentially more severe escalation.
Technical Outlook for Gold Prices:
Gold is currently trading in a downward trend on the daily chart, forming lower lows consistently. The current zone near 3366.804 is technically significant, acting as a strong resistance level that could push gold to continue its descent toward the 3225 mark.
This bearish scenario would only be invalidated if the price breaks above 3451.130 and closes a daily candle above that level, signaling a possible reversal in the current trend.
Bitcoin Analysis 23-Jun-25Bitcoin price in the weekend retested around 98,500$, this drop was mainly supported by the fear in the markets due to the escalations in the Middle East, & the US taking part in the War.
In this short analysis video, we will be discussing the Areas of interest and possible price movement we could see.
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#GBPJPY: Buyers and Sellers Both Has Equal Chances! Hey there! So, GBPJPY is at a pivotal moment, and we might see a mix of buying and selling activity in the market. Since the bulls aren’t exactly sure what to do next, here’s what we think:
- The GBPJPY pair is having a tough time breaking through the 194 region. The Japanese yen (JPY) is holding steady, making it hard to predict what will happen next. This has made trading JPY pairs a real challenge.
- Looking back at how prices have behaved in similar situations can give us some clues about what might happen in the future. But it’s important to do thorough research before we start trading. Just because something happened in the past doesn’t mean it will happen again.
- The Japanese yen (JPY) also tends to go down when the US dollar (USD) goes up. Since we’re bullish on the DXY index in the coming days, we think the JPY will probably take a hit, and it could go down a lot. It’s also worth keeping an eye on the GBP, which has been one of the most popular currencies since the market opened earlier today.
- In the meantime, we suggest setting two take-profit targets: one at 197 and another at 199. These levels are likely to see a lot of selling activity.
Now, let’s talk about what sellers should do:
- The price is currently in favour of sellers since it dropped from 195.50 to 193.50. And since the last two daily candles closed with strong bearish volume, it looks like the price is going to keep going down.
- If the price breaks below 190.50, that would be a great opportunity for sellers to make some money.
Good luck and trade safely!
Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊
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#CHFJPY: Last Idea +200 pips, Another 500+ Remanning Hey there!
Our CHFJPY trade is going swimmingly, with a +200 pips move already under our belt. We’re expecting the price to keep climbing and potentially reach 185 or more. Feel free to set your own take profit and stop loss based on your own trading strategy. We’re just sharing this exciting opportunity with you.
Good luck and happy trading! 😊
We really appreciate your unwavering support! ❤️🚀
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- Like our ideas
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How We're Earning A 14%+ Yield Selling Puts On CircleWe’ve long been eager to invest in Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the issuer of USDC, due to its vital role in the crypto ecosystem and straightforward revenue model. After years as a private company, CRCL recently went public, and its stock has rocketed—from an IPO range of $27–28 to over $240—yielding a ~780 % return for early investors in just weeks.
🏦 Why CRCL Matters
Stablecoins at the core: CRCL issues USDC (USD-backed) and EURC (euro-backed), enabling fast, low-cost transfers, lending, and payments across crypto platforms and institutions.
Infrastructure built for compliance: With a transparent, regulatory‐friendly setup, CRCL is poised to benefit from institutional adoption and improved global financial inclusion.
Favorable regulation incoming: A pro-stablecoin bill passed the U.S. Senate last week, potentially streamlining fragmented rules—a huge win for CRCL’s legitimacy and future growth.
📈 Revenue & Scalability
Interest income engine: CRCL earns revenue by investing reserves (from issued stablecoins) in treasuries and cash securities.
Low incremental costs: Issuing more stablecoins doesn’t significantly raise costs, giving the business strong operating leverage.
Cyclical dependence on interest rates: As the Fed signals rate cuts, CRCL’s margins and profits may experience pressure despite growing stablecoin usage.
💰 Valuation Concerns
Stratospheric multiples: With a market cap of ~$52 billion against ~$1.8 billion in annual revenue, CRCL trades at ~29× sales and ~305× earnings—levels we find tough to justify given the interest-rate dependency.
Short- to medium-term softness: With expected rate cuts, we believe near-term margins could contract, likely keeping multiples high or valuations pressured.
🔧 Our Preferred Strategy: Selling Puts
Rather than buying CRCL outright at these levels, we’re selling put options—specifically the October 17th $80 strike puts, currently priced around $3.80:
Attractive yield: Generates about 4.5 % over 117 days, annualized to ~14.3 %.
Flexibility: If CRCL stays above $80 by October, we pocket the premium; if it falls below, we buy at an effective cost basis near $76.20—a steep discount (66 %) to today’s stock price ($240).
Risk‑reward balance: We get income now, plus optionality to own CRCL at a safer valuation if assigned—potentially capturing long-term upside without front-loading risk.
⚠ Risks to Watch
Assignment downside: If CRCL collapses to zero, we’ll still owe $80/share—mirroring stock-ownership risk.
Interest-rate sensitivity: Profits remain tied to rate levels; moves down could crimp margins even if adoption grows.
Systemic risks: Any regulatory, technical, or confidence failure around stablecoins or USDC could materially impact CRCL.
🧭 Our Conclusion
We see CRCL as a high-potential yet pricey bet today. However, selling deep out-of-the-money puts allows us to capture compelling yield while preserving upside optionality to own shares at a discount. It blends income generation with strategic positioning in a high-conviction long-term theme.
Rating: Hold — we prefer income and optionality over full exposure at the current valuation.
USDT.D LONG - MID TERM PLANUSDT.D is one of the best tools to understand what's happening in the crypto market.
It shows the dominance of USDT across the entire space — and has a strong inverse correlation with BTC and crypto assets.
Technicals:
USDT.D is approaching its long-term support trendline.
I expect a deviation below that line — possibly toward the 0.75 Fibonacci level — before a strong move up.
That move could last 1–3 months, which means more downside for alts during this time.
Plan:
Shorting altcoins — especially ETH-related tokens and memecoins.
Looking to buy back around early August.
New Week Opens – Bullish Stance HoldsA new week opens as the Gold market maintains its bullish stance, holding firmly above previous demand zones. Market participants anticipate continued momentum unless key support levels are broken, with eyes still on structural wedge formations and demand reactions. follow for more insights , comment and boost idea.
Gold Slides as Markets Downplay the Fallout of ME EscalationGold prices are trending lower today after a slight positive open, struggling to hold near $3,365 per ounce, hovering just above the lowest level in over ten days.
This weak performance comes as markets continue to downplay the consequences of the unprecedented U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Previously, experts had viewed a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites as the line between a limited bilateral conflict with Israel and a full-blown regional war with global economic costs. Fears centered around a potential Iranian—or proxy—attack on the region’s vital oil and gas infrastructure, which supplies over a fifth of global energy needs.
However, those fears have yet to materialize, offering markets some reassurance that the escalation will not trigger a major shock that could reignite concerns over global economic stability. This narrative of containment has stripped gold of the geopolitical risk premium it previously enjoyed.
According to the New York Times , some experts believe Iran is unlikely to disrupt energy flows in the region as long as its own export facilities remain intact. In another word, any Iranian attempt to destabilize energy markets may invite retaliatory strikes on its own vital oil infrastructure—further damaging its already fragile economy. Axios quoted Brookings Institution foreign policy director Suzanne Maloney describing Iran’s parliamentary call to shut the Strait of Hormuz as symbolic, arguing that the Islamic Republic is unlikely to risk its economy or the rapprochements with Gulf neighbors.
That said, the Middle East’s unpredictable trajectory, with near-daily escalations, continues to unsettle markets and sustain elevated risk appetite, which could ultimately benefit gold.
In a New York Times opinion piece , Nicholas Kristof outlined three key risks that could stem from the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities: the nature of Iran’s response, whether the strike set back or accelerated Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and whether this is a step toward a broader war.
Iran’s response could range from symbolic gestures to reckless escalation, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into direct involvement.
According to the Wall Street Journal , Tehran may choose to strike at evacuated U.S. bases in the region, as it did in response to the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, when Iran targeted the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq in what was described as a calculated, non-escalatory response. Alternatively, Iran could intensify missile strikes on Israel—viewed by some as Washington’s largest forward base—thus keeping the conflict somewhat localized for now.
Still, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may ultimately reject a ceasefire, unlike what his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did in the late 1980s to preserve the Islamic Republic. This keeps the door open to new and unpredictable rounds of conflict, according to The Times .
On the nuclear front, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius warned in an opinion piece that Iran could pursue a crude radioactive “dirty bomb” using highly enriched near weapons-grade enriched uranium. Such a scenario would also be dangerously uncertain. In my opinion, it is unlikely that the U.S. or Israel would simply stand down after such a development, possibly setting the stage for the most extreme and dangerous escalation yet.
This could align with the protracted duration of the war and reports that Israel’s defensive missile stockpiles are running low, which raising the stakes. Israel may feel compelled to force Iran into surrender, as the U.S. did with Japan, though unlike Japan, Iran could be a nuclear state. Given Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political stance, a settlement that leaves Iran’s nuclear or ballistic program intact is unlikely to be accepted. Iran, for its part, firmly rejects dismantling its programs, adding to the likelihood of prolonged conflict and worst-case scenario.
Despite the market’s muted reaction to the U.S. strike, the surrounding risks remain significant and unresolved. As long as their realization remains uncertain, volatility in gold and oil prices may persist until the conflict is either resolved or definitively contained.
Samer Hasn
GOLD TAKEOFF anticipation Price has broken out of the descending trendline, showing early signs of strength after tapping into a 4H demand zone.
I’m watching for a rounded retest (possible liquidity grab) near the breakout zone, with the next leg targeting a strong bullish continuation.
🔑 Confluences:
Break of structure + Trendline Break
Demand zone reaction ✅
FVG + Minor OB support below = stacked liquidity
Bullish fundamentals: Weakening dollar + Middle East tensions → safe haven demand
📍 Target Zone: Above $3,400
📍 Invalidation: Clean break below $3,344
🚀 "Takeoff in progress... patiently waiting for market to fuel the move."
DANGER Diamond for ArcelorMittal to 57 cents?Dangerous Diamond has been forming since 2024.
What happens is there is indecisiveness between the buyers and sellers.
And because the prior trend is down, means there is a strong incline of downside to come when it BREAKS below the diamond.
Price<20 and 200MA
Target 57c
Nampak target still on the way to R579.61W Formation price broke above and has shown strong signs to upside.
Price above 20 and 200MA and the momentum seems to be on par with upside.
Target to R579.61 remains.
It seems to be one of the hedges while the markets are in turmoil with potential World War 3 action between Israel, Iran and possibly the UK and Russia soon.
Mechanical rangesMany traders will talk about things like "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) and think they have found something new.
The truth is, everything in trading stems back to Liquidity.
There is no "Algo" nobody is out to get you specifically. The market is always right, where you position yourself is your own choice.
I have written several posts on mechanical trading, recorded a number of streams. The more mechanical you can make the process, the less the emotions have a chance to kick your ass.
Let me give you a very simple method of being able to identify the ranges. Ignore the timeframes as this will work on any of them, on most instruments. (I say most, as some behave differently due to how it attracts liquidity). Lets assume high end crypto such as Bitcoin (BTC) and of course Forex in the general sense, stocks, commodities etc.
This is simple - only 2 rules.
You start by zooming out and giving yourself a general feel for the trend.
Let's say this looks to be an uptrend - we now need to understand the rules.
An opposing candle can simply be defined by a different colour. If the trend is up (Green) and we see a red candle - then it's an opposing candle.
The inverse is true, if we are down and the trend is Red. Then a Green candle would be opposing.
This is only half of the story. The second rule is a pullback candle or even a sequence of candles. This simply means either the very same opposing candle that doesn't make a new high or low (depending on the trend up not making fresh highs or down not taking new lows).
In this image, you can see we have in one candle both an opposing and pullback in one candle. This means we can now mark the high of the range. Working backwards to identify the swing range low.
This easy method means I can draw a range exactly the same and mechanically every single time.
Giving me a mechanical range.
We could then get a lot more technical by looking for liquidity, 50% of the range or places such as supply or demand areas.
But these are all for other posts.
For now, getting a range on the higher timeframes means you can work down and down into a timeframe you are likely to want to trade on.
These ranges will give clues to draws and runs of liquidity.
This will also help identify changes in the character and fresh breaks of structure.
Here's another post I posted on the mechanical structures and techniques.
More in the next post.
Have a great week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
ETH Forming Bullish AB=CD Pattern | Eyes on Breakout #Ethereum (ETH) is showing strong bullish momentum on the 4H timeframe and is currently developing a classic AB=CD harmonic pattern, which often precedes a continuation of trend.
✅ Key Observations:
#ETH is holding within a solid uptrend structure
No signs of bearish divergence or reversal patterns yet
Momentum remains healthy, with buyers in control
🔍 What to Watch For:
We are closely watching the previous Higher High (HH) — currently acting as a key resistance level. A 4H candle close above this level will serve as confirmation for the continuation of the bullish trend.
📈 Trading Plan:
Once #ETH breaks above the resistance and confirms with a close, we’ll look to enter a long position with proper risk management and stop-loss placement below recent structure.
💬 What’s your bias on #ETH in the short term? Are you already long, or waiting for the breakout too?
📌 Don’t forget to Like, Comment, and Follow for more clean setups and strategy-based analysis!
#ETH #Ethereum #CryptoTrading #ABCDPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #Harmonics #TradingSetup #Breakout #PriceAction
JASMY/USDT – Potential Bullish Breakout Ahead?Hey traders! 👋
#JASMY is currently consolidating sideways on the 4H timeframe, right after completing a harmonic pattern – a strong technical signal often followed by a trend reversal or continuation.
🔍 What I’m Watching:
✅ Harmonic Pattern Completed: The recent price structure aligns well with a bullish harmonic setup.
🔄 Sideways Movement: Market is in accumulation, signaling potential energy buildup.
📈 Bullish Divergence forming on RSI/MACD (waiting for confirmation).
🚀 Key Resistance Level: If price breaks and retests this resistance, it could trigger a strong uptrend.
📌 Trade Plan:
We'll wait for confirmation:
Bullish divergence on 4H indicators.
Clean breakout and retest of the resistance zone.
Enter long with proper risk management (SL below recent swing low).
💡 Patience is key – no entry until confirmation.
💬 What do you think? Will #JASMY break out soon or continue ranging?
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments!
❤️ Like if you find this helpful
📌 Follow for more clean setups and real-time updates!
#JASMY #CryptoTrading #HarmonicPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishSetup #BreakoutTrade #Altcoins #TradingView #CryptoCommunity #TrendReversal #PriceAction #RiskManagement
EURUSD Outlook at Risk of Changing in the Short and Medium TermEURUSD is feeling the bearish pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate. These risks are driving traders toward safe havens, particularly the US dollar and US government debt, which still serve as the backbone of global reserves. The sharp decline in the dollar in recent months has added to this dynamic, but it’s not over yet for euro bulls in all the short, medium, and long term.
However, the options market is flashing a rare bearish signal for EURUSD that traders should not ignore. Risk reversals across all maturities from 1 week to 1 year are falling. The 1-week risk reversal dropped sharply from 0.1075 to -1.10 since last Monday, one of the steepest moves seen recently, even though EURUSD itself has remained relatively flat.
The breakout and successful retest of the long-term downtrend from 2008 to 2025 was a key turning point. As long as EURUSD stays above this trendline, dips are likely to be seen as buying opportunities by long-term investors.
For the medium term, however, a bearish signal (for EURUSD) has emerged from the dollar index. The index broke out of the wedge formation (update the post above to see), retested it, and has since resumed its upward move, creating a strong bullish technical setup.
Now, everything comes down to short-term support. EURUSD has been in an upward trend channel since the retest of the long-term trendline and had also formed a shorter-term trend within that channel. This shorter trendline has now broken and been retested. The next critical level is the 1.1425–1.1440 support zone. If this area fails to hold, it could shift both the short- and medium-term direction to the downside.
Note: In this post, "short term" refers to up to one week, "medium term" to one to several weeks, and "long term" to several months to a few years.
GOLDGOLD DEMAND FLOOR 3348-3350 could be the last defense in price for buy. after seeing 3358-3360 broken demand cross on 45 min ,sellers could be taking price beyond 3348-3350 if buyers don't demand coming.
geopolitical tension and 15min ascending trendline aligns with 3348 for buy entry.
if this layers fails wait at 3274-3285 zone .
What to Expect From FOMC and the Market’s Reaction to It? With tariffs and Middle East escalation in focus, central banks have somewhat fallen to the backstage recently. But today’s FOMC meeting might change that. The federal funds rate upper band is most likely to stay at 4.50% with a unanimous vote. However, today’s focus will not be on the interest rate itself but rather on the dot plot and updated economic forecasts.
Inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target, but that trend may have shifted with the latest CPI report. Although recent inflation data came in better than expected, inflation appears to be flattening above 2% and could start rising again in the near future. Last week’s CPI and Core CPI reports showed early signs of this, and the upcoming PCE and Core PCE data could confirm those signals. Why is inflation still low despite tariffs? The main reason is frontloading.
U.S. consumers and firms frontloaded many goods, especially durable good, ahead of the tariff hikes. Now, with tariffs in effect, consumption has slowed, and many firms are holding elevated inventory levels. In this environment, firms are reluctant to raise prices due to lower demand and high stockpiles. This suppressive effect is expected to gradually fade, allowing prices to rise. For that reason, the Fed is unlikely to begin rate cuts prematurely. Inflation could make a peak in the last quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026 in our view. But the possible oil price spike due to Iran – Israel war could change this projection.
At the March FOMC meeting when the economic projections were last updated, some of the tariff impacts were already incorporated. Inflation and unemployment were revised higher, while GDP was revised lower. Despite this, the Fed maintained its forecast of two rate cuts for both 2025 and 2026. However, since March, newly announced tariffs have been more extensive than expected. Some board members including Jerome Powell stated that. As a result, a similar adjustment to the forecasts may occur today: higher inflation and unemployment, lower GDP. Accordingly, the dot plot could show only one rate cut for 2025 and three for 2026. Why would the Fed cut more in 2026? Because the tariff impact is expected to be a one-time shock, not a structural shift. Once the effects wear off, the Fed could ease more. But there are some risks to that. According to some new research and New York FED President Williams, not only long term inflation expectations needs to be anchored, rather the “whole curve” So during a possible inflation peak came with tariff effects, FED could not cut repeatedly and should closely watch the effects on short-term inflation expectations.
The main focus of today’s FOMC will be on the economic forecasts and the dot plot. If the new projections reflect only one cut for 2025, this would be bullish for the dollar. If the 2026 projection also shows only two cuts, that would be even more bullish. On the other hand, if the current forecast of two cuts in both 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, the reaction could be slightly dovish for the dollar.
During the post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell is likely to focus on uncertainties related to tariffs and energy prices, especially given the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Powell may downplay the hawkish tone of the dot plot during the conference, potentially reducing the overall market impact.
With all this in mind, the dollar index could either break out of the descending wedge formation on the hourly chart or continue drifting toward the lower boundary. Holding above the 99 level could be key for short-term price action.
Follow the trend and go short, and buy when the price falls backAffected by the situation in the Middle East, gold opened higher and lower again on Monday, and the trend was exactly the same as last Monday. After the opening, gold fell back to the 3352-3355 line and fluctuated. We planned to arrange long orders near 3350, but gold went up directly and did not give an entry opportunity. During the rebound, gold was blocked and under pressure at the 3366 line, and at the same time, there were signs of stagflation at high levels. Combined with the short-term adjustment needs, the strategy was to arrange short orders near 3364 and successfully stop profit at the target of 3350. Then we went long at the 3348-3350 line, which is also the preset long entry area. The current target continues to focus on the 3370-3380 area. So far, although gold opened high and went low, the overall bullish trend channel has not been broken, and the retracement to long is still the current mainstream direction.The specific points are subject to the bottom 🌐 notification.
From the current trend, the support below focuses on the 3340-3345 area. Combined with the stimulus of the Middle East situation over the weekend, the short-term upper resistance focuses on the 3380-3385 area. The expectation of breakthrough is still there, and the focus is on the suppression performance of the 3400-3415 line. The overall strategy continues to rely on the idea of buying on pullbacks. Watch more and do less in the middle position, chase orders cautiously, and wait patiently for clear signals at key points before intervening.
Gold operation strategy: Gold retracement near the 3340-3350 line to do more, the target is 3370-3380.
Analysis and strategy of gold trend today 6.23
📣Risk aversion heats up over the weekend. Gold opened high and moved higher in the morning, but quickly fell back, presenting a "lure to buy" market, and the bulls seemed short-lived.
Under the current situation, the early rebound is under pressure at 3390-95. It is recommended to go short with the trend, keep a close eye on the moving average trend and key points, and grasp the trading rhythm.
Operation suggestions:
Short near 3390-3392, defend 3400, target 3350-3340
Buy near 3350-3348, defend 3340, target 3390-3400
Oil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on IranOil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on Iran
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the Brent crude oil price formed a bullish gap at the opening of financial markets this Monday, surpassing last week’s high.
Only three days ago, we drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement that a decision regarding US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be made within two weeks – yet over the weekend, US aircraft dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Now oil prices are likely to be affected by Iran’s potential move to block shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, analysts suggest that in such a scenario, the oil price could climb to $100.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
The ascending channel plotted last week remains valid.
The fact that the price is pulling back (as indicated by the arrow) from the high set at the market open suggests the market had already priced in a significant risk of US involvement in the Iran-Israel military conflict.
Key points:
→ Technical support in the near term may be provided by the area where the lower boundary of the blue channel intersects with the $76 level (which acted as resistance at the end of last week).
→ Ultimately, fundamental factors and official statements will play a decisive role in oil price movements. It’s worth noting that, following the strikes on its territory, Iran is threatening retaliation against the US.
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Report – June 23, 2025Geopolitical Shock: U.S. Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites Redefine Market Landscape
The Trump administration’s decision to authorize precision airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities marks a major escalation in Middle East hostilities, significantly reshaping the global risk environment. Seven B-2 stealth bombers originating from Missouri carried out a long-range mission that deployed bunker-busting GBU-57 bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear installations in Fordow and Natanz. Additionally, Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a U.S. submarine struck facilities in Isfahan. Pentagon officials describe “extremely severe damage,” though assessments remain preliminary. The attack also marks the first known combat use of the GBU-57, highlighting both the symbolic and tactical weight of the operation.
While the U.S. maintains it is not at war with Iran but targeting its nuclear program specifically, Iran's leadership views this as a red-line breach. Tehran's immediate retaliation has so far focused on Israeli targets, but broader reprisals against U.S. assets and personnel in the region appear imminent. The Revolutionary Guards and Houthi allies have threatened to strike U.S. vessels in the Red Sea and disrupt oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy markets.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that no additional strikes are planned unless American interests are targeted, yet the situation remains highly unstable. Trump’s narrative aims to project decisive strength while avoiding a prolonged conflict. However, whether this operation achieves a limited military objective or drags the U.S. into broader war remains uncertain.
Part 2: Energy Markets Under Siege – Oil Price Dynamics and Strategic Implications
The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have triggered a spike in oil prices as markets react to the heightened risk of regional escalation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude futures climbed 2.5% and 2.4% respectively in early Asian trading, pricing in immediate geopolitical risk. Front-month Brent is now hovering around $78.89 per barrel, with analysts forecasting potential surges to $90–$100 per barrel should supply chains be disrupted, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, the transit route for up to 30% of the world’s seaborne oil.
According to Danske Bank, a complete closure of the strait could slash global oil supply by over 18 million barrels per day, equivalent to nearly 20% of daily output. That would constitute the most severe supply shock since the 1970s oil crises. Phillip Nova and ANZ analysts stress that while prices have initially stabilized, much of the “war premium” has yet to fully materialize unless Iran retaliates aggressively or Western energy infrastructure is damaged.
OPEC+ spare capacity may act as a temporary buffer, but traders are increasingly positioning for long-term supply insecurity. The oil volatility index (OVX) has already surged to a five-year high, outpacing the VIX and reflecting concentrated hedging behavior via bullish options. Goldman Sachs reports an “extreme skew” in call options on crude futures, indicating strong institutional conviction for upward price movement.
Panmure Liberum projects that a sustained 20% increase in oil prices over the next three months could boost European energy sector returns by 7.8%, with EPS growth forecasts across the sector already at 18%. U.S. oil majors like Exxon Mobil, APA, Devon Energy, and Diamondback Energy are poised to benefit given their dividend discipline and asset-light structures. Exxon, for instance, is forecast to yield 3.5% while paying out ~60% of 2025 net income, higher than industry average but seen as sustainable in a $90 oil environment.
Part 3: Inflation Dynamics, Fed Strategy, and the Impact of Tariffs
Markets are navigating a complex monetary landscape as the Federal Reserve grapples with rising price pressures, many of which stem from tariff-induced cost increases and geopolitical instability. The next major indicator, May’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, is expected to show headline inflation at 2.3% year-on-year (up from 2.1% in April) and core PCE at 2.6% (from 2.5%). These figures, while modest, are significant because they suggest that President Trump’s April tariff hike is beginning to feed into real consumer prices.
Economists warn this is only the beginning. ING analysts describe the current calm as “the calm before the storm,” expecting tariff-driven price hikes to become visible from July onwards. If inflation accelerates further, it would seriously challenge the Fed’s ability to justify rate cuts, particularly as Powell continues to emphasize a “data-driven” and “risk-managed” approach.
Markets had been pricing in two rate cuts for 2025, beginning in October. However, stickier inflation and rising geopolitical risks make this increasingly uncertain. Powell recently admitted to being in a “very foggy time,” indicating that clear signals are lacking. Traders are now more cautious, and the Fed itself remains split: 10 out of 19 officials favor rate cuts this year, while 7 expect no cuts at all.
This divergence is exacerbated by real-world shocks, particularly Trump's foreign and trade policies. For example, the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff package disrupted supply chains and added upward pressure on goods costs, despite some temporary demand surges as businesses front-loaded inventory. That trend has started to fade, and the inflationary effects are taking hold. Analysts like Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI suggest that unless the labor market deteriorates meaningfully, the Fed will be reluctant to stimulate and risk fueling further inflation.
Part 4: Global Trade Shifts, China’s Export Strategy, and the U.S.–China Financial Decoupling
In response to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical instability, China is aggressively reorienting its trade and capital strategies. Trade data shows a sharp decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., but a simultaneous and strategic pivot toward Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. In May, Chinese exports to Europe jumped 12% year-on-year, with Germany alone rising 22%, while shipments to Southeast Asia rose 15%. Factory owners across Zhejiang province, China’s second-largest exporter, are scrambling to secure new markets and insulate their operations from escalating U.S. trade barriers.
This shift is more than tactical, it reflects a structural decoupling from the American consumer market. Tariff rates on many Chinese goods remain above 50%, with fears that Trump may reinstate even more punitive measures. Factory managers report that U.S.-bound shipments now account for a shrinking share of their revenues, some dropping from 60% to 30% within a year. Manufacturers like Shaoxing Sulong Outdoor and Shaoxing Shangyu Lihua are expanding to Europe, the Middle East, and local e-commerce platforms.
The Chinese government is reinforcing this shift with subsidies for export credit insurance, trade fair attendance, and initiatives to promote domestic consumption of export-grade goods. Zhejiang province alone is nurturing 100,000 cross-border e-commerce sellers and partnering with supermarkets and online marketplaces to absorb unsold inventories.
Simultaneously, the financial relationship between the U.S. and Chinese markets is deteriorating rapidly. Since 2019, over 80 Chinese companies have delisted from U.S. exchanges. The NYSE and Nasdaq now host less than 2% of their capitalization from Chinese stocks, a dramatic decline from the heyday of IPOs like Alibaba’s in 2014. More recent listings have been small, speculative, and at times scandal-ridden, such as the collapse of Luckin Coffee.
Washington is actively pressuring U.S. pension funds and financial institutions to divest from Chinese companies. The SEC faces mounting pressure to ban firms with alleged ties to the Chinese Communist Party, slave labor, or national-security threats. Even China’s own regulators are pushing top companies like Shein and Didi to list in Hong Kong or remain private. As a result, Hong Kong has become the main IPO venue for major Chinese firms, aided ironically by Wall Street banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America.
This trade and financial decoupling underscores a broader geopolitical realignment, with profound implications for investors. The U.S.–China economic axis that once drove global growth is fracturing, and capital is flowing toward more politically aligned markets.
Part 5: Energy Markets, Oil Price Risks, and the U.S.–Iran Escalation
Following President Trump’s direct military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, global oil markets are in a state of heightened alert. The initial operation involved B-2 bombers deploying 14 bunker-buster bombs on Fordow and other key nuclear sites, with additional cruise missiles launched from U.S. submarines. This first-ever combat use of the GBU-57 “Massive Ordnance Penetrator” demonstrates the severity of Washington’s commitment to dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without formally entering a prolonged war.
Despite Trump’s assertion that “we’re not at war with Iran,” Tehran and its proxies have begun retaliatory strikes, primarily against Israel for now. But threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, potential disruptions in the Red Sea by Houthi forces, and calls in Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz raise red flags for global energy markets. The Strait handles 20–30% of the world’s oil flow, and its closure would amount to an 18 million barrels/day supply shock, nearly 20% of global output, per Danske Bank analysis.
The market’s reaction has been swift but measured. Brent crude surged to $78.89/bbl (+2.4%) and WTI to $75.67/bbl (+2.5%), as investors priced in a “war premium.” Yet the oil market remains in limbo: while sentiment is bullish, actual supply disruptions have not materialized. As CBA’s Vivek Dhar notes, the real driver of $100+ oil will be evidence of shipping blockades or facility destruction, not speculation alone. Brent at $90–95 is plausible in the event of retaliatory action by Iran.
Goldman Sachs’ analysis of three-month options skews shows the highest implied volatility for bullish calls versus bearish puts in 25 years. This reflects overwhelming investor demand for upside exposure, a rare pricing pattern signaling traders expect a substantial rally. ANZ and RBC Capital also highlight the rising risk of damage to Gulf infrastructure, which could catapult prices well beyond current levels.
Yet markets have shown remarkable resilience. The VIX remains muted compared to the 2023 tariff shock, while crude volatility (OVX) is spiking, indicating that energy markets are absorbing geopolitical risk far more intensely than equities. This divergence implies that energy stocks and commodities could outperform broader indices in the event of further escalation.
Strategically, investors are rotating into dividend-paying oil stocks with solid fundamentals. APA (yield 4.9%), Diamondback (2.6%), Devon (2.8%), and Permian Resources (4.1%) all pay less than 40% of 2025 net income in dividends and offer upside if oil prices remain above $70. ExxonMobil, yielding 3.5%, is more leveraged to price but offers size and balance sheet strength. Canadian producers like ARC Resources (2.4% yield, aggressive buybacks) are also drawing attention due to flexible capital strategies.
Conclusion: The energy sector is now a frontline investment space in geopolitical strategy. While oil may already reflect a partial war premium, any actual disruption, particularly in Hormuz, will send prices sharply higher, potentially reigniting inflation and delaying Fed rate cuts. Investors should be prepared for volatility, but also opportunity, especially in energy equities and structured trades such as call spreads on ETFs like USO.
Part 6: Market Reaction, Credit Liquidity, and Investor Positioning Under Geopolitical and Policy Stress
The intensifying geopolitical turmoil, centered around Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, has not yet catalyzed a market crash, but beneath the surface, cracks are forming in credit spreads, investor sentiment, and sector participation. The S&P 500, while only 3% off its all-time high, is displaying signs of internal weakness masked by headline stability. Over the past two weeks, the index has traded in a narrow 1.8-point range, the tightest since December 2024.
This tightness reflects both indecision and complacency. While major indices remain resilient, a concerning breadth divergence is emerging. Fundstrat’s Mark Newton reports that the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has slipped below 50%, and just under 40% are above their 20-day average. The equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF is down 1.5% over the past month, while tech-driven cap-weighted indices remain buoyant, suggesting fragility if megacaps falter.
Volatility metrics confirm the growing divergence. The Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index has spiked to near five-year highs, while the equity VIX remains muted. This divergence, as noted by Citi’s Scott Chronert, shows how geopolitical risk is being priced into oil, not equities, a phenomenon that cannot persist indefinitely. Quant Insight notes a waning correlation between the VIX and S&P 500 moves, suggesting that risk appetite is higher than it appears, or that equity markets are underestimating tail risks.
On the macro front, the Fed’s wait-and-see posture continues, with Powell reiterating uncertainty over the inflation trajectory amid tariff pressures. While headline CPI for May came in at 2.4%, below expectations, core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to tick up to 2.6% in May from 2.5% in April. Analysts, including ING, warn this may be the “calm before the storm,” as July’s data begins to reflect full tariff pass-through. The futures market is still pricing in two rate cuts this year, beginning in October, but expectations remain fragile and data-dependent.
Credit markets are showing early signs of tightening. Though no full-scale panic is evident yet, spreads on lower-grade debt have widened modestly as investors reassess risk in a stagflationary environment. Liquidity remains thin in parts of the high-yield market, and primary issuance has slowed. In contrast, investment-grade debt, especially from oil majors and defense contractors, is gaining interest as investors reposition portfolios to benefit from war-driven fiscal priorities.
Internationally, appetite for the U.S. dollar has diminished in Asia, per DBS strategists. Asian currencies like the SGD and HKD have appreciated, reflecting inflows as investors diversify away from dollar assets. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have seen heightened demand, with yields falling across the curve following a strong 5-year auction. The BOJ is not expected to raise rates aggressively, keeping Japanese yields attractive amid global uncertainty.
Conclusion: The global financial system is at a precarious crossroads. Equities are holding, but under the surface, technical deterioration and volatility divergence are flashing warning signs. Fixed income markets are rotating into quality, especially defense- and energy-related names. Liquidity is tightening slowly, with further stress likely if oil breaches $90 or core inflation surprises to the upside.
Part 7: Sector-Specific Analysis, Strategic Positioning, and Outlook for the Week Ahead
As geopolitical uncertainty and policy ambiguity persist, investors are increasingly turning to select sectors and assets that offer resilience, strategic leverage, or asymmetrical upside. Below is a breakdown of how key sectors are positioned and what the market dynamics suggest for the coming days and weeks:
1. Energy Sector: Oil’s Strategic Premium
With the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran’s potential retaliation, including threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets are on edge. Brent futures are up 2.4% at $78.89, while WTI has jumped to $75.67. Analysts including CBA’s Vivek Dhar see $100/barrel as a viable short-term target if Iran substantially disrupts shipping.
ANZ’s Daniel Hynes notes a supply shock could push oil to $90–$95/barrel. Danske Bank warns that a full Hormuz closure would cut global supply by nearly 20 million barrels/day, almost 20% of the total. This dwarfs past supply shocks and would be catastrophic for both inflation and industrial production globally.
Investor Strategy: Focus on large, low-cost producers with strong dividend policies and hedging flexibility:
Exxon Mobil (XOM): 3.5% yield, diversified base, strong dividend coverage.
APA & Diamondback (FANG): Payouts below 40% of earnings, asset returns aligned with industry averages.
Permian Resources (PR) & Devon Energy (DVN): U.S.-centric and operationally nimble.
Canadian producers like ARC Resources also offer supplemental upside, blending modest yields (2.4%) with capital returns via buybacks.
2. Defense & Aerospace: War-Driven Tailwinds
With the U.S. explicitly targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure using B-2 bombers and GBU-57 bunker busters, defense stocks are gaining renewed attention. The U.S. is unlikely to launch further strikes unless provoked, but the scale of this preemptive action elevates long-term defense spending prospects.
Investor Strategy: Defense majors such as Raytheon (RTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) benefit from this new operational reality. The U.S. is already building out missile defense in the Middle East, while allies like Israel are expected to increase their defense procurements, potentially financed with U.S. foreign aid.
3. Technology: Internals Weakening Amid Breadth Divergence
Despite megacap tech keeping indices afloat, breadth is deteriorating. Over 60% of S&P 500 stocks now trade below their 50-day moving averages. The equal-weighted S&P 500 is down 1.5% in the past month vs. a 3% rise in tech-focused ETFs.
Investor Strategy: Exercise caution with overexposed names. Consider reallocating toward:
Broadcom (AVGO) and Nvidia (NVDA): For AI exposure, but take partial profits.
Shift some exposure into infrastructure tech or AI-software-as-a-service plays with earnings durability but lower valuations (e.g., Salesforce (CRM)).
4. Small-Caps and International Equities: Tactical Diversification
Domestic small-cap stocks continue to underperform, but foreign small-caps, especially in non-tariff-affected sectors, offer compelling value. Funds like Brandes International Small Cap and Avantis International Small-Cap Value ETF are outperforming with annualized returns over 15%.
Managers are targeting niche names such as:
Magyar Telekom (Hungary) – 50% market share, local monopoly.
Japan Elevator Service Holdings – strong growth, 23% profit margins.
Investor Strategy: Use actively managed vehicles with deep on-the-ground research or ETFs with proven quantitative screens.
5. Credit & Bonds: Return to Quality
With the Fed cautious on rate cuts amid reaccelerating inflation, bond investors are shifting back to high-quality, longer-duration instruments. Corporate credit is showing early-stage stress, particularly in lower tranches.
Investor Strategy:
Focus on investment-grade debt, especially from oil and defense issuers.
Allocate to long-duration Treasuries for capital protection.
Avoid high-yield for now unless oil prices breach $90 sustainably.
6. Vaccine & Pharma Sector: Under Pressure from Political Appointments
RFK Jr.'s appointment and the firing of the immunization advisory committee has spooked biotech investors. Stocks like Moderna and Novavax are down 36% and 18%, respectively. Merck, though not a pure play, is down 17% as fears grow that existing recommendations (e.g., Gardasil) could be rolled back.
Investor Strategy: Caution is warranted. Some companies may benefit long-term if the FDA holds the line, but political risks will weigh heavily in the short term. Look to companies with broad portfolios and global exposure.
7. AI & Regulation: Big Tech’s Shield
Big Tech is lobbying for a 10-year federal ban on state-level AI regulation. If passed, this would shield companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta from fragmented compliance costs. Critics call it a power grab, but the budget bill’s passage by July 4 would solidify their advantage.
Investor Strategy: Maintain core positions but expect growing scrutiny. Midcap AI companies may benefit from looser oversight and acquisition potential.
8. China Trade & Delistings: Fragmenting Global Markets
More than 80 Chinese companies have delisted from U.S. exchanges since 2019. Delisting pressures are accelerating amid scrutiny over VIE structures and national security concerns. While some IPOs continue on Nasdaq, most are speculative and illiquid.
Investor Strategy: Reduce exposure to U.S.-listed Chinese ADRs. Instead, access Chinese growth via Hong Kong listings or multinational partners (e.g., Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor).
Macro Summary: Risk-Reward Outlook
Bullish Forces: Oil supply shock potential, defense spending, tech lobbying gains.
Bearish Forces: Inflation upside risk, Fed delay, tariff pass-through, credit deterioration.
Neutral/Mixed: Equity index stability masking internal weakness.
Part 8: Portfolio Positioning, Asset Allocation, and Thematic Strategy for the Weeks Ahead
With the macro landscape defined by geopolitical escalation, domestic political uncertainty, and global supply-side risk, investors face an increasingly bifurcated environment—one where aggregate indices appear calm, but sector-specific volatility and dispersion are rising. As a senior analyst advising institutional portfolios, I recommend the following strategic blueprint:
1. Recommended Portfolio Allocation (Short-Term Tactical Tilt)
Asset Class Weighting (%) Change Rationale
U.S. Equities 35 ▼ Breadth deterioration and tech overextension. Favor quality over growth.
International Equities 20 ▲ Hedge against USD volatility. Favor Europe ex-UK, Japan, and small-caps.
Energy & Commodities 15 ▲▲ Brent-WTI divergence and Hormuz risk support overweight.
Bonds (IG + Duration) 20 ▲ Rates on hold, but inflation limits downside. Extend quality duration.
Cash / Short Duration 5 — Maintain dry powder for dislocations.
Alternatives (AI, Infra, Private Credit) 5 ▲ Focus on uncorrelated return streams.
2. Equity Sector Positioning
Overweight:
Defense & Aerospace: Geopolitical risk justifies premium. Lockheed Martin, Northrop, RTX.
Energy/Oil: Strong cash flows, resilient dividends. Exxon, Chevron, APA, Devon.
International Small Cap Value: Strong relative returns, less tariff exposure. Brandes, Avantis, Pzena.
Neutral:
Mega-Cap Tech: Maintain core exposure but rebalance to reduce momentum risk.
Industrial Cyclicals: Mixed macro signals. Exposure through diversified ETFs preferred.
Underweight:
Consumer Discretionary: Inflation sticky, credit card delinquencies rising.
Biotech/Vaccine: Regulatory overhang, sentiment risk from RFK Jr. policies.
3. Fixed Income Guidance
Duration: Increase duration cautiously. Prefer U.S. Treasuries and munis with >7-year tenor.
Credit: Focus on investment grade. Avoid HY unless oil stays >$90/bbl.
Inflation Protection: Position in short/intermediate TIPS to hedge against tariff-related CPI pressure.
4. Tactical Thematic Plays
Strait of Hormuz Shock Hedge:
Buy USO ETF Aug $84–$94 call spread for high upside/defined loss.
Overlay with short Aug $75 puts for those comfortable owning on a pullback.
AI Lobbying Success:
Long MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, especially if Senate passes regulatory moratorium.
Mid-cap AI names (Palantir, Snowflake) as tactical trades.
China De-Exposure:
Rotate from ADRs to HKEX listings or U.S. multinationals with China-lite exposure.
Consider India or Vietnam ETFs as structural beneficiaries of decoupling.
Defense of Democracy Theme:
Long nuclear, aerospace, cyberdefense (BWX Technologies, Cameco, Palantir).
Cameco AP1000 export boost = significant EPS uplift in Q2.
Credit-Card Squeeze:
Avoid heavily consumer-exposed banks.
Monitor delinquency rates; shift to non-bank lenders or fintechs with better risk models.
5. Policy Event Calendar (Key Risk Dates)
Event Date Impact
Iran Retaliation Window Next 5–10 days High – Oil spike, market risk-off
FOMC Commentary & PCE Data June 28, 2025 Medium – Market path for Sept/Oct rate cuts
Trump Tariff Signing Deadline July 9, 2025 High – CPI spike trigger, inflation repricing
Senate Budget Finalization July 4, 2025 Medium – Tech regulatory outlook clarity
Eurozone PMI & ECB Presser June 25–28, 2025 Medium – EUR/USD, global growth confidence