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Fundamental Analysis

USDCHF Could Develop a Complex Pattern Ahead of FOMCUSDCHF Could Develop a Complex Pattern Ahead of FOMC USDCHF has reached the top of the structure zone at 0.8950, and the price has reacted accordingly. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday, the market is focused on Chair Powell's speech and a possible hawkish statement, which could create a pause before the price moves down. Currently, selling USDCHF is a bit risky, but the situation may become clearer later. Watch for reversal signs. Targets: 0.8870 0.8815 0.8760 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
8
XAUUSD - Gold went below $2700!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. In case of valid failure of the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zones. Gold demonstrated a strong performance earlier last week, surging nearly $100 from its weekly low and sparking fresh optimism among traders. However, higher-than-expected inflation data and a stronger U.S. dollar reversed the market dynamics, putting renewed selling pressure on precious metals. The latest weekly Kitco survey revealed that industry analysts are evenly split between bullish and bearish views, with a notable portion of respondents adopting a neutral stance. Meanwhile, retail traders’ optimism for gold remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, stated, “Gold saw an $85 rally in the first three days of the week, likely driven by reports of China’s central bank (PBOC) adding gold to its reserves for the first time in months. The metal reached $2,726 per ounce on the spot market on Thursday, marking its highest level in over a month, but then turned downward.” He further added, “Some analysts attributed the price decline to stronger-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Nonetheless, gold ended the week on a positive note, breaking its two-week losing streak.” Chandler also noted, “Since late October, this marks only the second positive week for gold. A cautious approach by the Federal Reserve to rate cuts—indicating that rates will be reduced but further cuts are unlikely next year, with a potential halt to tightening policies in early 2025—could pave the way for another test of the $2,600 level.” This week, the Federal Reserve is set to hold a two-day policy meeting, with monetary decisions expected to be announced on Wednesday. The central bank is anticipated to reduce the interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Additionally, the Fed will release its updated “Summary of Economic Projections,” known as the dot plot. In September, the median Fed officials’ projection for interest rates by the end of 2025 stood at 3.4%. If this forecast is revised down by more than 1%, the U.S. dollar could face immediate downward pressure. In such a scenario, U.S. Treasury yields may decline, boosting gold prices. Market participants will also closely monitor remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Should Powell strike a cautious tone regarding further monetary easing and emphasize a gradual approach, the dollar may maintain its strength against its rivals. Conversely, if he raises concerns about declining labor market conditions and their potential adverse impact on economic growth, the dollar could come under selling pressure. Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final revision of Q3 GDP data, and on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November will be published. Market reactions to the PCE inflation report are likely to remain muted after the Fed’s announcement. According to Bloomberg, Wall Street is shifting its outlook on the U.S. dollar, as Trump’s policies and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 could weigh on the greenback. Analysts from Morgan Stanley to JPMorgan predict that the global reserve currency will peak by mid-2025 and then begin to decline. Société Générale also forecasts a 6% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index by the end of next year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD → Consolidation before Fed Interest Rate DecisionFX:EURUSD is in a consolidation phase, as is the dollar index. The outcome could be decided this week. Traders are waiting for the FED meeting on US interest rates Globally the trend is neutral, but the price is consolidating near the key support that has been holding the market for two years. Aggressive interest rate cuts in Europe are putting overall negative pressure on the currency pair. The dollar may go into a downward correction if the decision to cut interest rates is made on December 17-18. But any hint of hawkish policy on the part of the Fed may strengthen the dollar, which will intensify the decline in EURUSD Resistance levels: 1.0607, 1.065 Support levels: 1.045, 1.033 Based on interest, amid the downtrend, the price has not yet reached the key liquidity zone. Before important news, the market may reach 1.0607. But based on the technical and fundamental background, the fall may continue, and a breakdown of 1.0448 will strengthen this fall. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
2
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is still above 100,000 dollars!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone(ATH) . After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 92 thousand dollars. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw capital inflows on every single day, recording a total of $2.2 billion in investments.Similarly, Ethereum spot ETFs continued their strong performance from the previous two weeks, accumulating approximately $1 billion in inflows last week, which is a significant amount. Meanwhile, Microsoft shareholders voted against the proposal to add Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet during its annual meeting on December 10. The resolution was introduced by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), a free-market think tank based in Washington, D.C., which framed the proposal as a way to provide value to shareholders through profit diversification. However, the shareholders ultimately rejected it. Daniel Batten, an environmentalist and Bitcoin advocate, claimed that Alex de Vries’ “singular opinion” in 2018, as the founder of Digiconomist, was the foundation for all flawed studies on Bitcoin’s environmental impact. Batten argued that this misinformation has led to widespread misunderstandings among the public, investors, and policymakers, causing Bitcoin to be mistakenly seen as an environmental threat. However, newer studies suggest that many of these claims are incorrect, and Bitcoin could even have environmental benefits. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s energy consumption is not tied to the number of transactions and that the network can exponentially increase transaction volumes without raising emissions. Robert Kiyosaki, a Bitcoin investor, entrepreneur, and author of the bestselling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, has once again predicted an imminent major crash and urged his followers to buy Bitcoin before it happens. In his recent tweet, Kiyosaki specifically addressed the Baby Boomer generation, to which he belongs, highlighting that Bitcoin is a new and confusing asset for many in that demographic. In his tweet, Kiyosaki wrote, “The biggest crash in history is coming. Please act early and get rich.” This warning came as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time in history. Earlier this year, Kiyosaki predicted that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by 2025 and as much as $1 million by 2030, citing AI-based forecasts for his projections. The number of daily active crypto users has reached an all-time high of 18.7 million, a sharp increase from just 7.7 million at the beginning of 2024. A group of Amazon shareholders, led by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), has suggested that Amazon invest at least 5% of its assets in Bitcoin. They argue that Bitcoin has outperformed most asset classes, including corporate bonds. Notably, MicroStrategy, a company that has integrated Bitcoin into its treasury management, has seen its stock outperform Amazon by a significant 537% over the past year. Meanwhile, BlackRock recently purchased an additional 3,910 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to approximately 535,000 Bitcoins, valued at $53 billion. As the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock has shifted its focus to Bitcoin and Ethereum while delaying the launch of any new altcoin-based ETFs. The head of BlackRock’s ETF division stated that the company now aims to expand its existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, given their stellar performance so far. Additionally, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, hinted at another Bitcoin purchase in a recent tweet. He wrote, “Does saylortracker miss a green dot?” This cryptic message appears to reference yet another significant Bitcoin acquisition by Saylor. Similar messages from him in the past have often preceded announcements of large Bitcoin purchases. For instance, Saylor has previously teased major Bitcoin buys through similar tweets, which were later confirmed. Nasdaq also announced that the largest Bitcoin-holding company will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index starting December 23.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq, the only green index last week!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. The valid failure of the previous ATH will provide the conditions for the continuation of the rise of this index. The Economist predicts that as 2025 approaches, the U.S. economy is in a highly favorable position. It expects a soft economic landing in the upcoming year, meaning the U.S. will successfully reduce inflation to its 2% target without harming economic growth. While analysts previously forecasted a recession for the U.S., Washington now stands out as the only major economy whose output exceeds pre-pandemic trends. This year, the Nasdaq index has significantly outperformed other major U.S. stock market indices. The primary reason is the heavy weighting of tech stocks in the index. Technology stocks, particularly the “Big Seven” tech giants, have seen remarkable growth due to the AI revolution and market optimism.On the other hand, the Dow Jones index, which is more focused on industrial stocks, has lagged behind Nasdaq despite notable gains. The United States is preparing new restrictions on AI chips to block China’s indirect access to this technology. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, these restrictions aim to prevent China from using hidden pathways to obtain AI chips. Sources familiar with the plan revealed that the U.S. intends to hold companies like Google and Microsoft accountable for managing access to advanced AI chips. The most significant economic event this week is the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2024, set to be announced on Wednesday. Markets are already anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut, but attention will focus on the Fed’s policy statement and Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference. Traders will look for clues about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook for the upcoming year. Additionally, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, which could have a global market impact. Key economic data on American consumer health will also be released this week. On Tuesday, the November retail sales report will provide fresh insights into consumer behavior during the holiday season. Moreover, on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—a key inflation metric closely watched by the Fed—will be released, potentially clarifying the direction of future monetary policy. Other important economic data include the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the S&P Global PMI leading index, both set for release on Monday. On Thursday, critical figures such as the final Q3 GDP growth rate, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, November existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims will also be published. Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but the pace of rate cuts in 2025 is expected to be slow. Due to sticky inflation and some inflationary policies from Donald Trump, economists anticipate only three rate cuts in 2025. The U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by the country’s economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, believe buying the dollar at this point may be a mistake, as there is a downside risk for the currency. Based on their discussions, many investors expect the dollar index to rise further. Morgan Stanley argues that positive news is already fully priced into the dollar and that markets may be overestimating the speed, scope, and impact of economic measures.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
GDS Holdings (GDS) AnalysisCompany Overview: GDS Holdings NASDAQ:GDS , a leading provider of high-performance data center solutions in China and Southeast Asia, is well-positioned to benefit from the exploding demand for data centers driven by cloud adoption, AI proliferation, and digital transformation across the region. Key Catalysts: Capital Injection to Fuel Growth: GDS secured an upsized Series B equity raise of $1.2 billion, led by key backers like SoftBank Vision Fund and Kenneth Griffin, reflecting significant investor confidence. The capital will enable GDS to develop over 1 GW of new data center capacity, fast-tracking its expansion plans across its key markets. Strong Regional Demand: Rising data consumption and the rapid digitalization in China and Southeast Asia position GDS to capitalize on surging regional demand for premium data centers. GDS’s established expertise and strategic partnerships further solidify its leadership in these high-growth regions. Long-Term Revenue Growth: The investment supports GDS’s long-term ambitions to increase scale and market share, enabling sustainable revenue and margin growth. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on GDS above the $17.50-$18.00 range, driven by its strong expansion strategy, favorable market conditions, and robust investor backing. Upside Potential: Our upside target for GDS is $34.00-$35.00, reflecting substantial growth opportunities in data center infrastructure and the company’s ability to execute its large-scale development plans. 🚀 GDS—Expanding Capacity to Meet Surging Data Center Demand in Asia. #DataCenters #TechInfrastructure #GrowthMarkets
NASDAQ:GDSLong
by Richtv_official
Pan American Silver (PAAS) AnalysisCompany Overview: Pan American Silver NYSE:PAAS , a leading precious metals producer in the Americas, is strategically positioned to benefit from the rising prices of silver and gold, driven by global economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures. As investor interest in precious metals grows, PAAS stands out for its robust operations and efficient portfolio management. Key Catalysts: Organic Growth Focus: PAAS has increased its 2024 drilling budget to over 450,000 meters, highlighting management's confidence in its exploration prospects. This aggressive exploration strategy signals long-term production growth and resource expansion. Portfolio Optimization: The company secured Investment Canada Act approval for the $245 million sale of its La Arena gold mine and La Arena II project in Peru to Zijin Mining Group. This transaction demonstrates PAAS’s commitment to unlock value from non-core assets and focus on its most profitable operations. Precious Metals Momentum: Rising gold and silver prices, fueled by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty, enhance revenue potential for PAAS. As a top-tier producer with diversified operations, the company is well-leveraged to capitalize on higher commodity prices. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We remain bullish on PAAS above the $20.00-$21.00 range, supported by strong fundamentals, rising metals prices, and a clear focus on organic growth. Upside Potential: Our target range for PAAS is $34.00-$35.00, reflecting the company’s ability to grow production, optimize its portfolio, and benefit from favorable macroeconomic trends. 🚀 PAAS—Capitalizing on Rising Precious Metal Prices and Strategic Growth. #Gold #Silver #MiningGrowth
NYSE:PAASLong
by Richtv_official
BTCUSD | Trade ideaBTCUSD is trading weak ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, having hit a low of $55,282 and currently hovering around $55,958. The number of large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has reached a one-month high of 16,120, indicating that whales are buying BTC at lower levels. BTC ETFs have experienced an outflow of $211 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 57% from 70% a week ago. US Markets: NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC): Bearish but neutral for BTC, trading weak ahead of the NFP data. A close above 20,000 could push the index to 20,500. Technical Analysis: BTCUSD is trading below the short-term 34-EMA and 55-EMA, as well as the long-term 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating weakness. On the daily chart, BTC remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, confirming minor weakness. Support Levels: Minor support at $54,000. A break below could push BTC to $53,000/$50,000/$46,000. Bullish Scenario: Primary supply zone: $57,000. A break above this level could confirm intraday bullish momentum with potential targets of $60,000/$61,800/$63,000/$65,000/$67,000/$70,000. Secondary barrier: $70,000. A close above could target $75,000/$80,000.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DynamicCapital-FX
MKRUSDT: Key Breakout or Major Reversal? Critical Zone in Play!Yello, Paradisers! Is this the moment where #MKRUSDT sets the stage for a powerful rally, or are we staring at the potential for a deeper plunge? The price is at a make-or-break level, and what happens next could shape the market trend for weeks to come. 💎Recently, #MKR faced a significant rejection at $2,143. Now, the price is approaching the $1,700–$1,800 zone, a crucial level that has historically acted as strong support. If bulls can step in and defend this area, keeping the price above $1,800, a sharp bounce could follow. Upside probable targets in this scenario would be around $2,300 and potentially as high as $2,900, confirming a bullish breakout and suggesting that a new leg of the uptrend is underway. 💎On the other hand, failure to hold the $1,700 support zone would signal weakness. A breakdown below this level could trigger a swift decline toward $1,400 and possibly even $1,200. Such a move would indicate a bearish reversal and allow bears to seize control of the market direction. 💎This is a critical juncture for #MKR. A strong bounce here could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown could lead to a significant reversal. As always, patience and disciplined risk management are essential. Let the price action confirm its direction before committing to any trades. Trade smart, Paradisers. Consistency and strategy are the keys to long-term success. Stay focused and keep mastering the art of trading because that’s how winners are made. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
10-year Treasury Yield Surging ahead last FOMC in 2024After a politically charged November, bond markets have shifted their gaze back to economic fundamentals, setting the stage for a crucial Federal Reserve meeting on December 17. Recent data—including a robust jobs report and rising inflation—have reignited debates over long-term yields and the Fed’s future rate trajectory. With the Fed’s dot plot and 2025 outlook in focus, the bond yield rallies ahead of the meeting reflects heightened anticipation of pivotal policy signals. This piece unpacks the dynamics driving Treasury yields and explores a potential trade setup deploying CME Yield futures to navigate the unfolding market environment. MARKETS ARE FOCUSSING ON ECONOMIC DATA AGAIN In November, U.S. Treasury yields were more influenced by political factors than by economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield remained largely unchanged after the 13/Nov CPI report, which showed headline CPI rising to 2.6% year-over-year in October, up from 2.4% in September. While the higher inflation suggested potential risks to bond yields—given that prolonged inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate cuts—Treasury yields were mostly unaffected by the data. Instead, yields declined sharply when markets opened on November 25, following President Trump’s announcement of Scott Bessent as his pick for U.S. Treasury Secretary. Bessent, a fund manager, is anticipated to prioritize tax cuts and fiscal caution. The announcement drove the 10-year Treasury yield nearly 30 basis points lower over the next week, reaching its lowest level in over a month. In the past two weeks, however, market focus appears to have shifted back to economic data. The non-farm payrolls report for November, released on December 6, exceeded expectations with 227,000 jobs added. Additionally, October’s dismal figure of 12,000 jobs was revised upward to 36,000, providing further support to the positive sentiment. The improved jobs report soothed investor concerns, signalling that the state of the US economy may not be as bad as previously perceived. The jobs report eventually drove a 5-basis point recovery over the following week. The latest CPI report for November also reaffirmed the trend that investors were focussing attention on economic data as 10Y yields surged after the report, rising nearly 19 basis points from the 09/Dec low. 10Y-2Y spreads have also surged by 8 basis points since 09/Dec. Investors can monitor the yield spreads using CME’s Treasury watch tool . Source: CME TreasuryWatch The tool can also be used to monitor the yield curve. Over the past month, the decline in Treasury yields has been concentrated in shorter-term tenors (2Y, 3Y, and 5Y), while the 30Y yield has remained largely unchanged. In contrast, the increase in yields over the past week has been more uniform across all tenors. Source: CME TreasuryWatch The November report showed inflation rising even further to 2.7%, although in-line with expectations, it suggests that inflation may be more persistent than previously perceived. This has led to expectations of a higher inflation premium for long-term treasuries which may have contributed to the rally in 10Y treasury yields. FED DOT PLOT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT NEXT WEEK Markets are almost certain of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on 17/Dec, with FedWatch indicating a 97% probability of this outcome as of 16/Dec. However, the primary focus will likely be on the Fed's guidance for the rate trajectory in the coming year. Alongside the rate decision, the Fed is expected to release its dot plot and summary of economic projections at the December meeting. The December meeting is crucial as participants closely monitor the outlook for 2025. At last year’s December meeting, the Fed projected significant rate cuts in 2024, which triggered a substantial equity rally and a decline in bond yields. Source: CME FedWatch Per CME FedWatch, market participants expect an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025. However, the Fed's September dot plot indicated expectations for 100 basis points of cuts in 2025. If the December dot plot reaffirms the projection of 100 basis points, bond yields could decline sharply. Source: Federal Reserve BOND YIELDS HAVE RALLIED HEADING INTO THE MEETING IN THE PAST The 10-year Treasury yields have rallied ahead of three of the last four FOMC meetings, with the increases notably concentrated in the three days leading up to the meetings. Given the recent trajectory of 10-year yields, a similar pattern may be likely this time. The 10Y-2Y spread has shown a similar trend, increasing ahead of the last three FOMC meetings. However, following the November meeting, the 10Y-2Y spread declined. This suggests it may be prudent to position ahead of the meeting to mitigate potential post-meeting volatility. Hypothetical Trade Setup Market participants are nearly certain of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but the summary of economic projections is likely to carry greater significance. Currently, market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are more conservative than the Fed's previous dot plot. If the Fed reaffirms expectations for more aggressive rate cuts next year, bond yields could sharply reverse their two-week rally. While the 10-year yield outlook remains uncertain and subject to risk, the 10Y-2Y spread has a more optimistic trajectory. The spread stands to benefit from expectations of further rate cuts and its ongoing normalization trend. Additionally, historical trends suggest that positioning before the FOMC meeting may be advantageous, as the spread corrected after the last meeting. Investors can express a view on the steepening of the 10Y-2Y yield spread using CME yield futures. CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis point (“bps”) change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This simplifies spread calculations with a 1 bps change in spread representing profit & loss of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively, at the time of writing. However, with CME’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of 16/Dec, making this trade even more compelling. The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.94x: Entry: 13.5 basis points Target: 30 basis points Stop Loss: 5 basis points Profit at Target: USD 165 (16.5 basis points x USD 10) Loss at Stop: USD 85 (8.5 basis points x USD 10) Reward to Risk: 1.94x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid?Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid? The Mexican peso, a dynamic player in the global forex market, embodies a unique blend of historical resilience and modern financial attractiveness. As we delve into the reasons behind its impressive liquidity, this article offers valuable insights for traders and investors eager to understand the intricacies and opportunities presented by one of Latin America's most prominent currencies. The Mexican Peso: An Overview The Mexican peso, a currency with a rich history and a significant presence in the global market, often surprises investors asking, “How much is the Mexican peso worth?” when they discover it’s one of the strongest emerging market currencies around. Its performance in the forex market is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, particularly those from the United States, including benchmark interest rates. The currency has benefitted from Mexico's nearshoring boom and soaring remittances, alongside a healthy fiscal position, contributing to its appeal to investors and traders worldwide. As the most traded currency in Latin America, the Mexican peso’s popularity underscores its importance in the regional and global financial landscape. With this background in mind, let’s take a look at 3 reasons the Mexican peso is so liquid. Reason 1: Strong Economic Fundamentals The liquidity of the Mexican peso today is closely tied to Mexico's strong economic fundamentals. In 2023, Mexico's economy has shown resilience and growth, marked by a significant increase in exports. This export-driven growth, reaching a record high, is supported by Mexico's robust trade relationship with the United States, making it the US's top trade partner with nearly $600 billion in two-way trade over the first nine months of 2023. Inflation control is another pillar of Mexico's economic stability. After peaking at 8.7% in 2022, inflation has been effectively managed, witnessing a decrease to around 4.26% in October 2023. This decline demonstrates the successful monetary policies of the Bank of Mexico, indicating a resilient economic environment. A key indicator of this economic improvement is in a comparison of the US dollar currency to the Mexican peso. In July 2023, the peso reached a low of 16.62 pesos per dollar vs a peak of 25.7 pesos per dollar in April 2020, showcasing its strongest performance in recent times. This strength is a direct reflection of investor confidence in the Mexican economy and can be observed in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico has reached new heights, with almost $33 billion recorded in the first nine months of 2023. The announcement of significant investments, like Tesla's planned "gigafactory" in Nuevo León, underscores the international business community's interest in Mexico, contributing to the peso's liquidity. Reason 2: Active Participation by the Central Bank The liquidity of the Mexican peso is significantly reinforced by the active role of Banco de México, the country’s central bank. The bank's monetary policy plays a crucial role in maintaining the attractiveness of the peso, which in turn contributes to its liquidity. One of the key strategies employed by Banco de México is its effective management of the overnight interbank funding rate. Throughout 2023, Banco de México maintained a consistent approach to this rate, reflecting its commitment to financial stability. For instance, the target for the overnight interbank funding rate has been kept unchanged at 11.25% for several periods in 2023, following a series of incremental increases in the preceding years. These decisions are a reflection of the bank's responsiveness to economic conditions and its aim to balance growth with price stability. Another important aspect of the bank's policy is the accumulation and management of international reserves. These reserves, which exceeded USD 203 billion as of October 2023, provide a buffer against external economic shocks, helping the country maintain economic stability in the face of global volatility. This stability is essential for sustaining the peso's liquidity, as it reassures investors about the country's economic resilience. Reason 3: High Trading Volume and Global Interest The history of the Mexican peso reveals a journey of economic reforms and policy shifts that have shaped its current state in the global market. Over the years, these changes have been contributing to stabilisation and reliability of the peso, making it a more attractive option for traders and investors and boosting its trading volume. This high trading volume creates a virtuous cycle that may further enhance the currency's liquidity. More trading volume signifies a greater number of transactions and a broader investor base, which, in turn, increases the currency's visibility and appeal in the global market. As more traders and investors engage with the peso, it may lead to rate stabilisation and smoother market movements, which are key factors for a liquid market. Additionally, the factors previously discussed, such as the strong economic fundamentals and the active role of the central bank, contribute to this cycle. A growing economy, along with effective monetary policies, boosts investor confidence. In response, more traders and investors are drawn to the currency, thereby increasing its trading volume and liquidity, and the cycle repeats. The Bottom Line In conclusion, the Mexican peso's resilience and appeal are clear indicators of its significance in the forex market. With its robust economic fundamentals, proactive central bank policies, and high trading volume attracting global interest, the peso stands as an attractive currency for traders and investors. For those looking to engage with this dynamic currency, opening an FXOpen account offers a gateway to the vibrant world of Mexican peso trading, providing an opportunity to participate in the market's ongoing growth and vitality. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 16, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair starts the week with continued gains, trading around 1.05200 during the Asian session on Monday. This rise can be attributed to the decline in the US Dollar (USD) amid lower US Treasury bond yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its final monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market analysts predict the U.S. central bank will cut rates but prepare the market for a pause given the strong U.S. economy and inflation stalled above 2%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets have already all but priced in the possibility of a quarter basis point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and dot plots will be closely watched. Earlier this month, Powell struck a cautious tone, saying, “We can afford to be a little more cautious in trying to find a neutral stance.” He indicated he was in no rush to cut rates. The euro gained support after President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist ally Francois Bayrou as France's prime minister, raising hopes for political stability. Macron promised to quickly select a new candidate for the job after Michel Barnier was forced to resign following a confidence vote in parliament. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.05000, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
An exciting week with many important economic data.World gold prices decrease when the USD increases. Recorded at 9:40 a.m. on December 16, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 106,570 points (down 0.11%). According to Naeem Aslam - investment director of Zaye Capital Markets, gold investors should mentally prepare for the possibility of gold prices weakening next week. The main reason comes from the US Federal Reserve (FED) reducing expectations about cutting interest rates, in the context of inflation still being "persistent". Lukman Otunuga - market analyst at FXTM - gave a neutral comment on gold prices in the short term. According to him, the trend of this precious metal will largely depend on the policy message that FED officials give in the upcoming meeting. Otunuga emphasized that, if the FED continues to maintain its "hawkish" stance, this could limit the ability of gold prices to increase as investors gradually narrow their expectations for stronger interest rate cuts next year. 2025. On the contrary, if the FED signals to loosen policy in 2024, gold prices could increase to 2,700 USD/ounce or higher. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2656 - 2654🔥 💵 TP1: 2630 💵 TP2: 2610 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2665
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
FED RATE-CUT / WEEKLY PLAN 16-20 DEC, 2024World situation: Although gold posted some losses, it remains up nearly 1% for the week, supported by a mix of US economic data. While inflation figures were varied, the latest Initial Jobless Claims report strengthened investor confidence in a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Attention now shifts to the Fed’s December 17-18 policy meeting, with traders pricing in a 93% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut, according to CBOT data. Following the announcement, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into the policy direction for 2025. 🔥 Identify: H4 is seeing price close to the bullish trendline - which will be validating the last rate cut of year. There will be some upside but it will still be difficult to break above the 2723 price zone 🔥 Technically: Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, Pips & Profit identifies the important key areas as follows: Resistance: $2678, $2723 Support : $2613, $2590, $2535 Let's support "Pips & Profit" by LIKE AND COMMENT TRADINGVIEW. Thank you very much everyone 💙
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PIPS_n_PROFIT
2
BTC Surge Continues on Strategic Reserve Signals & World LibertyBINANCE:BTCUSDT continues with the price action today, opening up oportunities for fast acting traders to cash in on both short and long positions. Cheer up Habibi! Its going to be a great rider for BTC as American President embraces BTC like a big American flag he likes to hug. The crypto industry continues to respond from signals from our old man Bitcoin even as he shows some age, but no indication of slowing down in a rapid charge towards a glorious new administration supportive of crypto investors and financial firms. Geopolitically aware investors in Western Asia will be bright to keep a keen eye on the moves of Trump affiliated investing firm, World Liberty Financial, who is filling up their water carriers with millions in GEMINI:ETHUSD - GEMINI:AAVEUSD - GEMINI:LINKETH to prepare for something we are all curious about. Stay tuned for breaking news and updates on World Liberty and POTUS47 related investments. With chart pattern "Wolf howling at winter's full moon" clearly showing above, CRYPTOCOM:BTCUSD is the oasis from which we all find water in the desert. Know this, and know it in all rooms of your house - all surrounding tokens will grow green and prosper in this active & rich environment. Stay tuned traders, and keep your alerts tuned and ready. The Bitcoin water will only nourish every trader who passes by this sweet oasis of wonder. Hear the wolf's call and plant many seeds. Remember Habibi, the desert tests your will, not your strength. www.bloomberg.com coinpedia.org thecryptobasic.com
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LawrenceOfCoinrabia