Get started

Fundamental Analysis

GOLD| Approaching Historic Highs Amid Geopolitical UncertaintyThe analysis of XAU/USD highlights a strong bullish trend, closing at approximately $2,939.41 on February 20, 2025, marking a 0.23% increase from the previous day. The recent high of $2,946.83 on February 19 indicates continued positive momentum, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and fears of potential trade wars, all of which have strengthened gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. The current momentum has pushed prices toward historic levels, with the potential to surpass $3,000, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and declining U.S. yields. The chart shows a key resistance zone around $2,960, with a potential retracement towards the $2,880 area, identified as the first major support level. The current price action suggests a possible pullback before another breakout attempt. If the price consolidates above $2,900, it could accelerate towards new highs, while a break below $2,880 may drive the price toward the next support level around $2,840. The overall outlook remains bullish, with investor interest fueled by global uncertainties and the increasing demand for gold as a hedge against economic risks.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/NZD Analysis: Market Uncertainty Amid Key Technical LevelsThe analysis of GBP/NZD shows recent volatility, with a close at 2.20571 on February 19, 2025, slightly down from the previous day, indicating a phase of market indecision. The previous trend saw moderate progression from February 16 to 18, supported by an increase in UK GDP, which temporarily strengthened the Pound. However, the absence of new economic data left the pair exposed to market sentiment, contributing to the decline on February 19. From a technical perspective, the chart highlights a strong resistance area between 2.21770 and 2.22180, a level that has rejected the price multiple times, suggesting that without a decisive breakout above this zone, the bullish trend may weaken. Conversely, a significant support area is located around 2.17616, a level that has already provided a positive reaction, pushing the price back up. The current price action shows a consolidation phase between these two key levels, with a recent structure of higher lows that could indicate an accumulation attempt before a potential bullish breakout. If the price manages to break above the upper resistance decisively, the next target would be around the recent highs in the 2.24000 area. On the other hand, a break below the 2.17616 support could trigger a decline towards the next key level at 2.15000, where an interesting liquidity zone is present. The combination of the recent positive GDP data and a more cautious market sentiment leaves the pair in a state of uncertainty, with a key reaction expected in the coming days depending on the holding or breaking of the main technical levels.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: Bearish Momentum and Key Support TestThe USD/JPY analysis as of February 18, 2025, shows a clear bearish structure, with the price breaking below key support levels, particularly around 152.70, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The February 17 close at 151.456 confirms the downward trend after the recent high of 154.79 on February 12, highlighting the weakness of the US dollar against the strengthening Japanese yen. The yen’s appreciation was driven by Japan’s unexpectedly strong GDP data, which showed an annualized growth of 2.8%, far exceeding expectations and fueling speculation of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. In contrast, the US dollar has been under pressure due to weak retail sales data and a general lack of bullish catalysts. The chart setup highlights a key demand zone between 150.50 and 151.00, where the price is showing an initial reaction, suggesting a possible technical rebound. However, the overall structure remains weak, and unless the price can stabilize above 152.50-153.00, the risk of further downside remains high. The next significant resistance lies between 154.50 and 156.00, an area with concentrated sell orders and a potential reversal point in case of recovery. Conversely, a break below 150.50 would open the way toward 148.00 and even lower levels, with a critical support zone around 146.00. The short-term trading range could remain between 151.00 and 155.00, with strong dependence on upcoming macroeconomic developments, particularly statements from the Bank of Japan and economic updates from the United States.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/JPY: Uncertainty and Bearish PressuresGBP/JPY has shown a volatile trend in recent sessions, with a combination of ups and downs highlighting a phase of uncertainty. The last closing on February 15, 2025, at 191.618 marks the beginning of a bearish trend after the doji on February 14. This movement reflects a complex dynamic, where macroeconomic and technical factors play a decisive role in price direction. The recent rebound was supported by positive UK GDP data, which helped the pound recover from bearish pressures over the past months. Notably, on February 12, a reversal of the bearish trend occurred, with GBP/JPY starting to regain ground due to an improvement in market sentiment. Additionally, the strengthening of US inflation negatively impacted the Japanese yen, pushing GBP/JPY up by 1.22% around February 12, driven by a weaker yen following the increased strength of the US dollar. However, despite these positive elements, the Bank of England’s monetary policy has introduced uncertainty, with a dovish stance fueling pressure on the pound. The interest rate cut has raised concerns about further depreciation, negatively affecting GBP/JPY. Added to this is the earlier decline in early February, triggered by disappointing UK economic data and expectations of further BoE interventions, which contributed to a widespread bearish sentiment. From a technical perspective, the price is currently in a consolidation phase between 187.610 and 193.120, with a structure suggesting a possible expansion of volatility in the coming weeks. The key resistance at 193.120 represents a critical obstacle for a potential continuation of the bullish trend, while support at 187.610 remains the main level to watch in case of renewed bearish pressure. A breakout above the 193.50 threshold could confirm further pound strengthening, while a break below 188.00 could reopen scenarios of weakness. With a combination of technical and macroeconomic factors in play, GBP/JPY’s trend remains subject to upcoming BoE decisions and the evolution of global economic conditions, making it crucial to monitor upcoming economic releases to determine the market’s direction.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
xauusd analysis for coming weekKey Factors Influencing XAU/USD Monetary Policy & Interest Rates: By early 2025, the Federal Reserve’s stance will be critical. If rate cuts are underway (due to recession risks or controlled inflation), gold could rally as the USD weakens. Conversely, a "higher-for-longer" rate policy could cap gains. Watch for Fed speeches and the PCE inflation report (due late February 2025) for clues. Geopolitical Risks: Escalations in conflicts, trade tensions, or unexpected crises (e.g., energy disruptions, elections) could trigger safe-haven demand for gold. USD Strength: A strong dollar (e.g., from robust U.S. economic data) may pressure gold. Monitor the DXY Index for inverse correlations. Scenario-Based Outlook Bullish Case: Fed dovishness + weak USD + geopolitical instability → Rally toward $2,100–2,150/oz. Bearish Case: Hawkish Fed + strong U.S. data + risk-on sentiment → Decline toward $1,900–1,850/oz. Trading Strategy Long-term investors: Accumulate near $1,920–1,950/oz if fundamentals align with bullish drivers. Critical Events to Monitor Fed Chair Powell’s testimony (if scheduled). U.S. Q4 GDP revisions (February 27, 2025). Global PMI data (manufacturing/services activity). Geopolitical developments (e.g., U.S.-China relations, Middle East tensions). Conclusion Gold’s trajectory will hinge on the interplay between Fed policy, the dollar, and risk sentiment. While technicals suggest a range-bound market between $1,900–2,080/oz, prepare for volatility around key data releases. Always use risk management tools (stop-loss, position sizing) given the uncertainty of long-term forecasts. more detailed video analysis will be published soon BOOST US SHARE US
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
Gold's Next Move – 3000 in Sight or Deeper Correction First?🔥 Gold Market Analysis – Are We Heading for a New ATH? 🔥 📈 Extreme Bullish Momentum – But Signs of Exhaustion? Last week, price showed strong bullish momentum, pushing to a new all-time high (ATH). However, despite this strength, we have also seen deep pullbacks, signaling that sellers are active at key levels. 🔍 Key Observations: ✅ 4H Bullish FVG (2923 - 2915) has been tested 3 times – Each time, price has bounced significantly, with one of those bounces even leading to a new ATH. ✅ Friday’s reaction off this zone suggests buyers are still defending it, but price is struggling to push up as aggressively as before. ✅ Liquidity Sweep & Strong Rejection – We swept the 4H Asia high, tapped into a 1H Bearish OB (2947 - 2940) just above the liquidity grab, and then dumped 100+ pips 📉. 🔮 Possible Scenarios Moving Forward: 📌 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation 🚀 Price could attempt to fill the 4H Bullish FVG (2923 - 2915) and then bounce back up, targeting the ATH again. If we break above the 1H Bearish OB (2947 - 2940), it could trigger further bullishness, potentially driving price towards 3000. 📌 Scenario 2 – Deeper Pullback Before Another Push Up 🔻 If price fails to hold the 4H FVG, we could see a drop down to the 4H Bullish OB (2886 - 2877), where buyers are likely waiting. A strong reaction from this zone could set up a higher low formation, allowing bulls to re-enter and push towards the ATH again. 💡 Final Thoughts: The market is at a critical point, and liquidity sweeps are playing a major role in shaping price action. If we see a clean break above resistance, 3000+ could be in sight. However, failure to hold key demand zones might lead to deeper corrections before another bullish leg. 🔥 Stay patient, follow the levels, and trade smart! 🔥
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldTraderKaan
US 10Y TREASURY: safe-haven for uncertain growthThe US 10Y Treasury yield fell sharply during the previous week, in line with a drop on US equity markets. At the same time, the price of gold headed toward a new all time highest level, marking its sixth consecutive gaining week. Uncertainty is a word which has dominated financial markets since the establishment of the new US Administration. Spooky words like tariffs, inflation, and questionable economic growth are currently dominating investors' sentiment, in which sense, some further funds reallocations are quite possible in the coming period. After new stories regarding tariffs, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which showed the highest inflation expectations for the period of next five years, investors were seeking safe-haven assets, like Treasury bonds and gold, in order to sustain the value of their money. The 10Y Treasury yields dropped during the week from the level of 4,56% down to 4,43%, where they are closing the week. For the week ahead, there is a possibility for a short term reversal to the upside, however, Friday brings new US PCE data, which is Fed's favourite inflation gauge. Depending on the data, some higher volatility is possible again.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Gold: still targeting the $3KRegardless of a short pull-back during the previous week, the price of gold is clearly on its path toward the $3K level. There are several factors which impact the market uncertainty at this moment, in which sense, investors will inevitably seek the safe-haven assets to invest. There is fear of trade tariffs, which are very active on the market and its impact on future US economic growth. Then, inflation fears pushed the US equity market more than 1,7% toward the down side on Friday. The posted Michigan Consumer Sentiment data are showing the highest five year inflation expectations since 1995, of 3,5%. This was a signal to markets that the Fed would have to keep interest rates at the higher level for a longer period of time. Overall, analysts are in agreement that fundamentals for gold remain solid. The price of gold reached another all time highest level during the previous week, at the level of $2.951. The RSI continues to hold at strongly overbought territory since the beginning of February. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days continue to move as two parallel lines with an uptrend. Potential cross is currently not in store. The US PCE data will be posted on Friday. In this sense, hold on for another volatile end of the week. Whether this will be the moment for the $3K target for gold, no one can say with certainty. The price of gold is currently moving in an uncharted territory, in which sense, everything is possible. On this path, a small correction is also possible, but taking into account current sentiment, a stronger correction should not be expected. Now, the $3K could be a game changer, if we take into account a larger time frame on a daily chart and highs achieved in April and October 2024. This level should be watched closely.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
SPX: another not-happy FridayMarkets have been playing a bit of a ping-pong game since the start of the year. Uncertainty is never a good world for financial markets, so it was this Friday. In the same week, the S&P 500 reached a fresh, new all time highest level at 6.148 and a significant pull-back on Friday. One of the extremely spooky works since recently are tariffs, which a new US Administration is using too frequently, for the taste of investors. The S&P 500 lost 1,71% at Friday's trading session, while other US indices were also somewhere in this range. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was published during the week, showing not some happy figures about current consumer sentiment. In addition, consumers are expecting further increase in inflation, higher from previous releases. The 5 years inflation expectations currently stands at 3,5%, for which analysts are noting, is the highest level since 1995. The highest contributors to index drop on Friday were tech companies, which are currently ones which hold the highest participation. Other sectors were also affected, however, those related to major supplies were the ones that gained during the week. The consumer sector, healthcare and utilities were the ones that investors bought the most. It was sort of a move toward basics. As analysts are noting, the defensive sectors are the ones which gain during times of fears on future economic growth. The week ahead will be a sensitive one for financial markets, as PCE data are scheduled for a release. The start of the week might bring some relaxation from Friday's negative sentiment, however, it will not be a sign that the positive sentiment is back, but only a sort of short term positioning for PCE data. Depending on final PCE data, a higher move could be expected toward either side. The higher market sensitivity will continue as long as uncertainties are existing either through trade tariffs, or through inflation data.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
EURUSD: the PCE is coming Figures for US Building Permits in January were posted at the level 0,1% higher for the month in January, while the Housing Starts dropped by -9,8% in January. Existing Home sales in January dropped by -4,9% on the monthly basis, much higher from forecasted -1,7%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for February was at the level of 64,7 modestly lower from market forecast of 67,8. At the same time, inflation expectations were increased. The majority of US consumers are expecting inflation at the level of 4,3% while five years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,5%, from 3,2% posted previously. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February in the Euro Zone reached the level of 24,2 and generally was in line with the market consensus. The same indicator for Germany was standing at the level of 26,0 and was higher from 20 expected by the market. The Producers Price Index in January in Germany was standing at 0,5% on a yearly basis, and -0,1% for the month. The Consumer Confidence in the Euro Zone in February was at the level of -13,6 a bit better from market estimate of -14,4. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for February in Germany was at the level of 46,1, and a bit higher from market estimate of 45,5. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was at 47,3 also a bit higher from estimated 47. Without official release of data which would point to inflation in the US, the eurusd currency pair was traded in a relatively short range during the previous week. The week started by testing the 1,05 resistance line. Without the strength to break it, the currency pair reverted a bit toward the downside, till the lowest weekly level of 1,04, where the support line lies. At the weekend it reverted again back toward the 1,05, but again without success to break this level. The currency pair ended the week at 1,045. The RSI is still moving above the level of 50, implying that the market is still more oriented toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days is modestly slowing down its divergence from MA200, however, there is still a high distance between lines, in which sense, the potential cross is still not in store. The Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE indicator is scheduled for a release during the week ahead. Considering current market high sensitivity on inflation data, a higher volatility might be expected. At this moment, charts are showing that eurusd is traded to some extent sideways, between levels of 1,05 and 1,04. If the market manages to break the support line at 1,04 during the week ahead, then it could be expected to move toward the 1,03. In case that 1,04 manages to hold, then the currency pair will revert back toward higher grounds, and probably will surpass the 1,05 resistance line. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Ifo Business Climate for February in Germany, Inflation rate for January in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate final for Q4 in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence for March in Germany, Retail Sales in Germany in January, Unemployment rate in Germany in February, USD: Durable Goods Orders for January, GDP Growth Rate second estimate for Q4, PCE Price Index preliminary for February, Personal Income and Personal Spending
by XBTFX
Bitcoin: side trading still holdsAnother week in a row, BTC continued to move in a channel which indicates sort of side trading. It seems that investors are still not ready to choose the trading side, in which sense, BTC continued to move in a range between $96K and $98K. There were short attempts to head toward the $100K but without success, and also toward the $94K at one moment, but it was also without success. A range still managed to hold, but the question is for how long it will manage to hold in the future period? The RSI is showing exactly the mood of the market. By continuously moving below the level of 50, it shows that the market is not ready to take action on either side. At the same time, moving averages of 50 and 200 days are showing two parallel lines, without any indication that convergence might start anytime soon. The cross is certainly not in the store for some time in the future. In technical analysis, a move within a channel is the indication that the market will soon break the channel toward one side. At this moment, it could not be anticipated whether the break will occur toward the up or down side. Another fact evident on charts is that the GETTEX:92K holds as a strong support line. Currently, there are two scenarios which could develop on charts. One scenario includes a break toward the downside and the level of $92K. The second scenario would include a break toward the upside, where the first stop might be the level of $100K. Which scenario will prevail, we will see in the coming period.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: February 23 – March 1Last week in the news There are currently several words which shape investors sentiment, including trade tariffs, inflation, slower economic growth. All three words are active for come time, which impact market moves during the previous week. Fears of inflation, after a release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday, pushed the US equities strongly toward the downside. The S&P 500 dropped by 1,7% within a day, after reaching the new all time highest level. The index closed the week at the level of 6. 013. Investors were looking more at the safe-haven assets, in which sense, the price of gold again reached the new highest level at 2.954, while the 10Y US Treasury benchmark sharply dropped to the level of 4,43%. The crypto market was a bit traded aside, where BTC continues to move within a channel between $ 96K-$ 98K levels. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final for February was the one that shook the markets. Surprisingly lower data from estimated, were the ones which supported investors fears from future inflation. The Index level of 64,7 was lower from expected 67,8. On the other hand, inflation expectation data were the ones that surprised investors. Namely, US consumers are expecting inflation at the levels of 4,3%, while five years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,5% from 3,2% posted during previous releases. Investors were not at all happy with such inflation development, not even as an expectation, which showed by a significant drop in US equity indexes. A lot of news attention during the previous week was on the earnings report of Berkshire Hathaway. The most famous investor on the market, Warren Buffet had stockpiled more cash for another quarter through sale of stocks. As per reports, its cash position currently stands at $334B. Regardless of this move, the Buffet noted that Berkshire Hathaway will always prefer stocks over cash, without too much further explanation. During his previous comments, he sort of criticized the market, calling it too expensive at this moment and only a few buying opportunities. Nevertheless, shares of Berkshire Hathaway continue to gain in value, adding 5% from the start of this year. At the same time, Reuters reported that Buffets company will most probably increase stake in five Japanese trading houses, which he currently holds in portfolio, including Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo. As of the week-end a news hit the market that crypto exchanger Bybit was under a huge cyber attack, where estimated, $1,5 billion worth of ether was stolen. As news is reporting, an entity from North Korea was suspected. The stolen coins were then transferred into BTC. Although Bybit reacted promptly, still, the exchanger faced significant withdrawal requests from its clients. Crypto market cap There was another volatile week on the crypto market. After significant gains two weeks ago, the previous week was in a mood of corrections. The crypto coins were traded in a mixed manner. There were almost equal numbers of both coins which finished the week in red and in green. However, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly level, losing total $30B in value. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to the level of $239B on a daily basis, from $170B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -2%, with $80B outflow of funds. Despite the both winners and losers during the week, still, the crypto market ended the week with a total loss of $30B on a weekly basis. The coin with highest participation, BTC, was traded modestly down by 0,9%, losing total $17B in value. On the opposite side was ETH, who managed to gain $ 10B in value, increasing it by 3,2% w/w. Other significant movers in nominal terms were XRP, which was traded down by 6%, dropping its market cap by $9,8B. Solana was also traded lower, dropping by 10,7% w/w or $10,1B. Another coins with significant drop was DOGE, who managed to decrease its cap by $ 4B or 9,9%. Among gainers Maker should be especially mentioned, as this coin increased its value by 55% within a single week. At the same time, this coin increased the number of its coins in circulation by 1,9%. Several of other weekly winners were ZCash, with a surge of 7,9% w/w, while a portion of other smaller altcoins managed to gain below 1% on a weekly level. When coins in circulation are in question, Maker was already mentioned with its increase of 1,9%. At the same time, ZCash decreased its circulating coins by 2,7%. Filecoin added 0,8% of new coins to the market, while IOTAs increase was 0,6%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was traded lower compared to the end of the previous week. BTC futures were traded around 3% lower, while ETH futures ended the week around 4% lower. BTC futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $101.875, and those maturing a year later at the level of $111.380. Despite the drop, it is still positive that investors are perceiving the BTC price at levels higher from $100K in the future period. ETH futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at the level of $2.807, and those maturing in December 2026 closed the trading week at $3.017.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
$AIXBT – AI-Powered Crypto Analysis Tool with Real Market Utilit💡 What is $AIXBT? $AIXBT is an AI-driven analytics platform under Virtuals Protocol, integrating blockchain, AI, and big data for advanced market insights. 📊 Key Features: AI-driven market analytics – Monitors Crypto Twitter & CoinGecko. Trending narrative detection – Finds key narratives influencing market moves. Alpha-generating insights – Uses AI to provide data-driven trade signals. On-chain & sentiment analysis – Tracks 400+ Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs). 🔹 Built on: Base L2 (Ethereum) – Low fees, fast transactions. 🔹 Listed on: Gate.io, gaining liquidity & visibility. 🔹 Growing user base: 100K Twitter followers in 2 months. 🛠 Key levels to watch: Sweep of $0.167 expected soon – setting up a potential long trade. Downside risk: $0.08 Upside targets: $0.3 - $0.43 = conservative/local peaks. $0.75 - $1.00+ = possible in 2025 if market euphoria kicks in. 🤔 Is $AIXBT Worth Watching? AI + crypto is a major 2025 trend. Not a meme coin – real utility for traders. Unique AI-powered sentiment & narrative tracking. High volatility. 🚀 Bottom Line: $AIXBT has a strong AI-driven concept but needs to prove itself in the competitive AI crypto sector. If market enthusiasm for AI tokens continues, this could be a major breakout play. 📌 Key trade idea: Watch for liquidity sweep at $0.167 → long if price bounces back up immediately.
Long
by Goldfinch_song
Perfect Time to Long $ENA – Targeting $0.80, $1.3, And $2.4This is a repost. The previous one was removed due to some rule violations by the TV mod. Let the records show that the first post was made on Feb 21, 2025, 11:31 UTC, at the price of $0.43518. CRYPTO:ENAUSD Ethena has formed a bullish bat harmonic on a smaller timeframe and a macro bearish deep butterfly on a longer timeframe. The bat has already completed, and Ethena has bounced off, starting an upward trend. The deep butterfly, on the other hand, remains incomplete. It’s not guaranteed to play out, but if the market moves up—which seems inevitable sooner or later— CRYPTO:ENAUSD could revisit its previous all-time highs and potentially exceed them. The $0.80–$0.89 range is a confluence of multiple indicators like Fibonacci levels, VRVP, and others. $1.3 aligns with the 2025 high. So, where does $2.40 come from? First, the bearish deep butterfly pattern points to $2.40–$2.50 as a potential reversal zone. If it completes, that range could present a shorting opportunity for $CRYPTO:ENAUSD. Second, fundamentals support a higher valuation. In less than a year USDEUSDT supply has jumped from 1.54B to 6.05B—nearly a 4x increase. Based on an analysis that my post got removed for, comparing CRYPTO:ENAUSD to CRYPTO:MKRUSD , even $2.50 would be an undervalued level. Third, CRYPTO:ETHUSD has been in a prolonged downtrend, but sentiment has grown overwhelmingly bearish. Historically, when too many traders bet against something, the probability of a reversal increases. CRYPTO:ETHUSD / CRYPTO:BTCUSD has already begun trending up, repeating the same cycle behavior it has followed before. When Ethereum moves up alongside Bitcoin, it’s logical to expect Ethereum-based tokens to rally as well, regardless of fundamentals or technical patterns.
CRYPTO:ENAUSDLong
by toghrulaliyev