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Fundamental Analysis

AUDCAD 2HAUDCAD 2H Fundamentals: •The RBA has made its first rate cut, initiating its rate-cutting process. However, this is more of a symbolic cut rather than a genuine attempt to stimulate the economy. It was essentially a “hawkish cut” from the RBA. •We could see a shift in risk sentiment, with the S&P500 currently in an uptrend but recently rejecting a daily resistance. In my opinion, this rejection is just a minor correction. •Oil is also in a downtrend, which should negatively impact the Canadian dollar. •Furthermore, market expectations for interest rates suggest a hold for both central banks, but with an 80% probability for the RBA compared to 60% for the BoC. •Additionally, since the US dollar is undergoing a short to medium-term correction, this could also weigh on the Canadian dollar due to the positive correlation between the two currencies. Technical Analysis: •On the daily timeframe, we can see a descending triangle that has just broken to the upside. •On the 8H timeframe, there is a clear double bottom on the Bullish TrendLine, which acted as strong support. Price is also returning to the trendline, but more importantly, to Fibonacci levels aligning with a major resistance-turned-support. •Retail traders are predominantly short (91%), confirming a potential buying opportunity. •I am placing a buy limit at the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.90060. •Wide stop-loss as we might see portfolio rebalancing from major institutions due to the end of the month, which could bring volatility. •Take profit at 0.92700. •Risk-to-reward ratio: 3.3. •Half-risk position due to Australian CPI on Wednesday and Canadian GDP data on Friday.
Short
by Marco-kh
EURJPY 2H SHORTEURJPY 2H Fundamentals: •Eurozone 10Y Bonds broke a key ascending trendline to the downside and have now retested it before continuing lower. This suggests that the EUR is overvalued and that investors are losing confidence in the Eurozone. •Conversely, Japanese 10Y Bonds have been in a strong uptrend for a while now. •The Non-Weighted Currency Index also shows that the Yen is strong, as it recently broke a descending trendline, retested it, and then surged higher. •Meanwhile, the Non-Weighted Currency Index of the Euro shows the opposite pattern. A bearish flag is forming on the daily timeframe, which could indicate a potential decline. •Lastly, we have the monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the BoJ. The BoJ is expected to hold rates, while the ECB is expected to cut. •The only concern is risk sentiment, which could weigh negatively on the Yen. Technical Analysis •On the daily timeframe, there is a strong uptrend, but a bearish triangle has formed. •On the 8H timeframe, we can see a 61% Fibonacci rejection, forming a clear double top, signaling strong selling pressure, followed by a break of a key support level. •On the H4 timeframe, another double top confirms the sellers’ strength, further validated by the break of the 50-SMA, which had previously acted as a dynamic support. •I am expecting a rejection at 50% Fibonacci at 156.180, which will be my entry price. •Stop-loss at 159.400, slightly above the previous support-turned-resistance. •Target: 149.000, a psychological level and a round number. •Retail traders are mostly long (80%), confirming that a short position would be a valid opportunity.
Short
by Marco-kh
GBP/USD Analysis for the Coming Week (Feb 17 - 21) Market Overview: Last week, the pound experienced significant gains, driven by stronger than expected UK GDP reports. Despite strong CPI figures, the dollar generally weakened due to Trump's reciprocal tariffs wait. Price Action: Weekly Performance: Price bounced off the weekly iFVG to close higher, taking out previous weekly highs. Imbalances: Multiple imbalances were left, most notably the daily FVG which aligns with the 4-hour and 1-hour buy-side imbalances. Targets: Price is expected to fill these imbalances and move higher, targeting: Last week's high at 1.2630 External range liquidity at 1.2665 and 1.2700 Monthly Outlook : The monthly candle is being pulled towards the imbalance at 1.2800. Monday is a holiday no news will be waiting for trump speech on tuesday a, uk cpi y/y wednesday together with FOMC. Conclusion: Overall, GBP/USD is set to continue its upward momentum, with key levels to watch being 1.2630, 1.2665, 1.2700, and 1.2800.
Long
by hskarue
Record-Breaking Bitcoin ETFsSince the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, their total trading volume has surpassed $750 billion, reflecting strong investor interest. The growing popularity of these instruments continues to solidify Bitcoin’s position as an asset class. ✨ Key Facts (as of today): ⚫️ IBIT by BlackRock now accounts for 75% of total ETF trading volume, up from just 25% at launch, highlighting its market dominance. ⚫️ Total assets under management have exceeded $112 billion, making #Bitcoin ETFs one of the fastest-growing segments in asset management. ⚫️ High liquidity and steady capital inflows indicate rising institutional demand, with Bitcoin being viewed not just as a speculative asset but as a long-term portfolio component. The rise of Bitcoin ETFs underscores the increasing role of crypto assets in traditional finance. As the sector evolves, we can expect more funds, a broader range of products, and deeper institutional involvement. 🚀 CRYPTOCAP:BTC Price Analysis 📉 Bitcoin Update (Today’s Data): 🔹 Price: $96,370 (-0.32% 24h) 🔹 Market Cap: $1.9T (+0.32%) 🔹 24h Trading Volume: $16.63B (-66.16%) 🔹 FDV: $2.02T 🔹 Total Supply: 19.82M BTC / Max Supply: 21M BTC BTC is rising despite the recent Ethereum theft from the ByBit exchange, while the White House rhetoric is shifting toward Bitcoin Reserves
Long
by Sasha_why_N
BTC Forks & CyclesIt’s Sunday and it’s raining here so I thought I’d write up a post. I was going to review a few alt coins but presently alt movement depends on what btc is going to do so what’s the point of doing alts first. Also, as the title says, I’ve been learning a lot about forks (courtesy of KingCobra) and cycles (courtesy of CamelFinance) which both have made my life a lot easier. Previously, the last few years, I’ve concentrated on elliot wave which is fine and great, but it takes an awful lot of time to try and chart all the coins I’m following, whereas, as a swing trader, its a LOT easier and WAY LESS time consuming to us forks and cycles to estimate pa movement. Don’t get me wrong, elliot wave is still an important aspect I use, amongst other things, but again, as a swing trader, long and short term can be tracked WAY easier with cycles and forks. So cycles. As per Camel, we’re now in the range for a weekly cycle low. Camels cycle indicator, which I’ve subscribed to, shows the “estimated” weekly cycle low happening between March 8-20th. Many people out there are saying end of Feb (28th) is a BIG day for btc/markets. So I’ve used Feb 28 as my cycle low date in the 4h chart above description (the white arrows). So cycles. As per Camel, we’re now in the range for a weekly cycle low. Camels cycle indicator, which I’ve subscribed to, shows the “estimated” weekly cycle low happening between March 8-20th, and many people out there are saying end of Feb (28th) is a BIG day for btc/markets. So I’ve used Feb 28 as my cycle low date in the 4h chart above description (the white arrows). Now forks and the 4h chart. Using knowledge derived from KingCobra, in the chart above there are 2 forks drawn. The dashed white lines designate the boundaries for the forks to help you identify them. The chart is in Linear scale and both forks are mode “schif”. As you can see in the upward sloping fork the all important meridian line has been touched several times shown via the green circles. In the downward sloping fork the meridian line has been touched again several times shown via the red circles. So where do I think btc is going. Well “if” btc drops on Feb 28 or thereabouts, “if” pa hits the meridian line again on the downward sloping fork, that puts pa at 91.1k. If I change the fork to “modified shcif” shown in chart below, pa hits the “median line” at 86.5k which also matches up with the 31% fib level retracement also used by KingCobra regularly. Now I said “if” btc drops because as per Camel, we could have simply more sideways action to get a “timed” cycle low (sometime between now and Mar 20th) and blast off from there. I say blast off because as per the cycle chart, this bullrun has been moving in steps increasing by doubling in price then weeks of sideways action, then another step up. This next step up could take btc to the 180k level whereas using pitchforks and KingCobras method a cycle top is estimated around the 150k mark. indicators. I haven’t included any indicators but suffice it to say, the 1D, 3D and 1W RSI, SRSI and MacD all show a weakening downtrend although all are showing near the bottom of their scales. To me that says a little more downtrend with a reversal uptrend coming. Having said all that, we could be entering a period of economic instability, turmoil and/or recession where markets an btc/crypto all drop for the next several months or a year which would mean that btc and the markets have reached their tops followed by a decline in everything, party’s over, short short short. The next week or three will show us what’s what so be prepared either way. My thoughts, not financial advice Oklah. Cheers
Long
by wildboar8
1
Gold Price Analysis (1H Timeframe)Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading inside an ascending channel, showing a bullish trend. However, a key trigger line at $2,936 will determine the next move. 🔹 Bullish Scenario: If price stays above $2,936, we can expect a push toward $3,028 and potentially $3,085. A breakout above $3,085 would confirm strong bullish momentum, targeting new highs. 🔻 Bearish Scenario: A break below $2,936 could signal weakness, leading to a drop to $2,880. If selling pressure continues, the next major support is at $2,803. 📌 Trading Plan: 🔸 Long Entry: If price holds above $2,936, with a target of $3,028 - $3,085. 🔸 Short Entry: If price breaks below $2,936, targeting $2,880 - $2,803. 🔸 Risk Management: Use stop-losses near key levels to minimize risk. 📊 Watch Volume & Price Action! A breakout with strong volume confirms the trend direction. Low volume means potential fakeouts—wait for confirmation before entering trades. 📢 What do you think? Share your views in the comments! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PIPsOptimizer