Even as the Fed ramps up adjustments, gold still risesGold Talking Points:
I went over gold in-intensity in yesterday`s webinar, and this morning updates given the metal`s persevered charge motion with bulls pushing as much as some other ATH simply interior of the 2790 degree.
The contemporary pullback feels just like the earlier episode, whilst gold stalled in advance of a check of the 2700 mental degree. In that iteration, expenses then constructed a bull flag formation as 3 weeks of sideways grind regarded earlier than consumers had been in the end capable of pressure a push up and thru the subsequent large discern at 2700.
The banner 12 months for gold has persevered and this morning delivered but some other sparkling all-time-excessive into the mix. At this point, charge held highs simply about $10 interior of the subsequent important mental degree of 2800 and this resembles closing month`s episode whilst gold bulls shied farfar from 2700, at the least initially. The excessive then held at 2685 and a bearish channel advanced thereafter, which, whilst all for the earlier bullish fashion made for a bull flag formation.
Given the resistance that has been in region so far, simply across the 2800 degree, I assume this is the subsequent degree that wishes to be accepted. And we formerly had reputation on the 2750 degree after guide confirmed there, which is clear at the two-hour chart below. So, ideally, any corresponding retracement will stay above the preceding better low to hold the door open for bullish momentum setups.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold futures prices have reached a new all-time highThe first factor that draws interest at the every day chart is the breakout above the top border of the pink consolidation (…)
What does this suggest for gold futures?
The capacity bullish situation should take the rate to the $2,800 barrier or maybe around $2,825, wherein the dimensions of the rally could correspond to the pinnacle of the cited pink consolidation.
From the cutting-edge factor of view, we see that the scenario evolves in keeping with the above situation and the shoppers have done the primary goal cited in advance today.
Thanks to this rate movement, gold futures fees additionally reached a brand new document excessive of $2,801.65.
However, given the breakouts cited above throughout all 3 formations, we should see a upward push to around $2,786, wherein the dimensions of the rally could correspond to the peak of the consolidation brown (2d upside goal). At this factor, it's far really well worth noting that during this place there may be additionally the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level (primarily based totally at the October 23 excessive and low), which serves as technical resistance. Therefore, it's far really well worth looking the conduct of the bulls on this place - mainly whilst we keep in mind the closeness to the formerly damaged decrease border of the very brief grey uptrend channel term (presently at around $2,787.30), which can entice dealers to the exchange.
Gold Price Analysis October 31Fundamental Analysis
The US Dollar (USD) attracted some buying on the dip and now appears to have halted its corrective slide from three-month highs amid bets on a slower pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), supported by strong economic data. This, coupled with concerns over the growing US fiscal deficit, continued to push US Treasury yields higher and limited the upside in the non-yielding yellow metal as it remained mildly overbought on the daily chart.
Traders also appeared reluctant to place fresh bullish bets on Gold, opting to wait for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. In addition, the closely watched US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday will be looked at for clues on the Fed's interest rate outlook, which will boost demand for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis
After a strong reaction around 2771, the session port zone was formed and is the immediate support level today for gold prices to react. 2756-2758 is noted in the area after which is a notable break point. In the resistance direction, SELL orders are not very favored. Ahead is the ATH level 2789, which is not too trustworthy, the second level around the port in 2799-2801. With the next resistance point, pay attention to the psychological level 2810. Wish everyone a successful trading with my analysis.
NQ idea NQ we will go long above $20,465.25 10 point stop first target 🎯 $20,496.50
Second target 🎯 $20,534.75
We can scalp 10 point moves
Once your I’m
Profits 5 points move your stop from up 5 points ….. from the original stop 🛑 target 🎯
We will short below $20,401
We will have a 15 point stop to the down side give is room to ride the momentum
We have the first target 🎯 at $20,364.25
Second target 🎯 $20,324
Chancellor Reeves Unveils £40 Billion BudgetChancellor Rachel Reeves outlines a transformative budget aimed at addressing the UK's £40 billion fiscal gap through strategic tax increases while committing to public service growth.
Here are the key highlights: (Source: The Guardian, FT)
Main Tax Changes
Overall Tax Increases: The budget introduces £40 billion in tax hikes, primarily targeting higher earners and corporations to fund public services and infrastructure.
Income Tax and National Insurance (NI) Thresholds: The thresholds for income tax and NI will be frozen for an additional five years, which is expected to push more individuals into higher tax brackets as their earnings increase.
Capital Gains Tax (CGT): Starting April 6, 2024, the annual exemption for CGT will decrease from £6,000 to £3,000. Additionally, the capital gains tax rates will be adjusted, with the lower rate increasing to 18% and the higher rate rising to 24%.
National Insurance Contributions: Employer NI contributions may rise from 13.8% to 15.8%, alongside a reduction in the threshold at which they apply, dropping from £9,100 to £5,000. These changes could potentially generate an additional £20 billion in revenue.
Inheritance Tax: The current structure remains, but potential alterations to exemptions affecting businesses and agriculture are under consideration.
Non-Dom Tax Status: The government is contemplating the complete abolition of the non-dom status, which allows certain UK residents to avoid UK taxes on foreign income.
'Sin' Taxes: There are proposals to increase taxes on the gambling industry by up to £3 billion, aimed at addressing addiction issues.
Spending Measures
Public Spending Growth: Spending on public services is set to increase by 1.5% in real terms, reflecting a commitment to enhance essential services despite fiscal constraints.
NHS Funding: A significant portion of the budget includes a £22.6 billion increase for the NHS to improve healthcare services.
Investment in Local Services: An allocation of £240 million will be directed toward local services to address community needs and infrastructure improvements.
New Minimum Wage Rates
National Living Wage (NLW): The NLW will increase to £12.21 per hour, reflecting a 6.7% rise. This adjustment is expected to benefit over 3 million low-income workers, providing an annual increase of approximately £1,400 for full-time employees.
Market reaction after Budget
The yield of the 3-M Glit slightly increased after the Budget but did not rise as sharply as following the Liz Truss mini-budget. The market appears less panicked this time, likely because it had more time to digest the situation after PM Starmer's repeated comments about a painful budget, which helped ease sentiment. This will not compel the Bank of England to rush into rate cuts or quantitative easing.
The weekly chart indicates that the FTSE 100 may experience a false breakout, as suggested by the wedge formed by the red line. The index has recently rejected resistance at the green line. If the FTSE falls below the short-term support line (blue), it will likely test 7052, which represents a 38.2% retracement from the low in March 2020 to the high in May 2024.
Conclusion
The Budget is expected to raise business operational costs, particularly labour costs, due to tax increases affecting corporations and National Insurance contributions. It remains to be seen whether more millionaires will leave the UK. Additionally, the capital gains tax is likely to reduce landlords' interest in purchasing rental properties, which may impact the property market by decreasing demand for new homes and increasing rents.
Gold bullish analysisGold hit 2790 for the second time, forming a double top pattern on the hourly chart. However, the price closed above 2780. Before the trend is completely changed, the callback is still dominated by low-to-long positions. Let's look at the oscillation range of 2770/2800 during the day. There is basically no room for gold bears. The decline is to continue to give more opportunities. Gold bulls are unstoppable and full of momentum.
Gold fluctuated upward yesterday, and gold continued to accumulate momentum at a high level. Gold still bottomed out and rebounded yesterday despite the small non-agricultural negative news. Gold bulls held on to the 2770 line and continued to rise. Gold fell back to 2780 in the Asian session and continued to buy on dips.
Gold continued to fluctuate at a high level in 1 hour, and the gold 1-hour moving average continued to diverge upward with a golden cross. The gold moving average support moved up to around 2770. Gold also stepped back to the support near 2770 several times in the US session yesterday and then bottomed out and rebounded. Gold continued to buy on dips after stepping back to 2780 in the Asian session. Accumulating momentum at a high level, gold is likely to hit the 2800 line.
First support: 2780, second support: 2768, third support: 2755
First resistance: 2794, second resistance: 2805, third resistance: 2813
Trading strategy:
According to the resistance support, sell high and buy low in the range of 2770~2800
NDX - How Will It React to Latest Earnings?The quarterly figures from META and Microsoft were met with a mixed reception, and the NASDAQ fell accordingly in the after-hours trading. We are nevertheless positive for the NDX, which does not open until 09:30 ET, due to a very pronounced hidden bullish divergence in the OBV. We expect an initial sell-off into the entry zone and then a run-up to today's highs.
AUD/USDAUD/USD Analysis
Technical Analysis :
The AUD/USD is in a clear downtrend, with price trading below the 50 and 200 EMAs. Key support is at 0.6550, and resistance is around 0.6600. The Squeeze Momentum (SQZMOM) indicator shows red bars, signaling continued selling pressure, aligning with the overall bearish sentiment.
Fundamental Analysis :
Strong U.S. GDP growth of 2.8% contrasts with weaker Australian fundamentals impacted by reduced Chinese demand, adding pressure on the AUD.
Trade Plan:
• Entry: Short near 0.6580-0.6590
• Stop-Loss: 0.6610
• Target: 0.6500
Let the Games Begin. HI.
This is what you don't do.
You entered a long position around $36.84, expecting a potential rebound due to oversold conditions. The recent price action broke key resistance levels, notably at $51 and $54, moving into a downtrend with high selling pressure. Institutional liquidity-seeking behavior and indicators (HARSI, ADX) reinforce the bearish momentum, though oversold status at $36.84 suggests potential for a bounce.
Key Points Moving Forward:
Support Holding at $36.84: This level is crucial; if buyers step in here, it may support a short-term rebound.
Indicator Signals: HARSI and ADX remain bearish but oversold. Monitoring for stabilization in these indicators could validate a bounce.
Market Sentiment: Conditions favor a cautious approach. While oversold, momentum is strong to the downside, so a reversal signal would help confirm upside potential.
In summary, you’re positioned at a high-risk, high-reward level. Watch closely for confirmation of support holding at $36.84 and any upward momentum before considering additional positions.
Risk-on Risk-off Market Snapshot, 31/10/2024The market currently reflects a mixed sentiment, with both risk-on and risk-off factors influencing asset preferences. Safe-haven assets, like the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and gold, are seeing demand due to persistent geopolitical concerns, including Middle Eastern conflicts and Russia-Ukraine tensions. At the same time, optimism in specific sectors, supported by positive U.S. job data and stimulus in China, is fueling interest in riskier assets such as equities and some commodities.
Central bank policies remain crucial, with mixed messages across regions as the Fed maintains a cautious stance while Japan signals prolonged accommodative policies. Investors are thus balancing between defensive assets for safety and growth-oriented assets in selective sectors, creating a nuanced market landscape.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
DONT FOMOHello .
My quick view on what's going on .
I believe this will be moving fast in next couple days . However is tricky .
You can see my exit here .
Waiting on gap fill and potential entry .
All indicators are suggesting take your money and run .
Can we see higher squeez before pull back .
IMO no . but this is market and anything can happen.
LETS watch this . Volatility on this can get insane.
Cheers .
Amd - Break, Retest And New All Time Highs!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is about to start another +100% rally:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Amd just retested and rejected a major previous horizontal structure and is starting the next major bullish wave towards the upside. Looking at previous cycles and the rising channel pattern, it is quite likely that Amd will follow Nvidia and create new all time highs soon.
Levels to watch: $130, $270
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)