USD/JPY Analysis – June 29, 2025
🚨 Don’t miss the opportunity on yen right now.
From a technical perspective, price action has followed our previous projections almost perfectly —
and now, strong fundamental signals are also emerging following the latest BOJ meeting.
📉 This could be a good time for a Sell position:
either from the current level (for aggressive traders),
or slightly higher around the 145 resistance zone.
🎯 The expected target lies around 139,
in line with the broader corrective structure.
This setup offers a high-potential move — especially for those tracking both TA and FA closely.
Fundamental Analysis
Silver Bullish and Looking for retest of Previous ResistanceSilver remains bullish on the back of positive Chinese data, and is trading at its highest levels since 2012.
We have developed a range between support at 35.30-35.60 and resistance at 37.03-37.33, however, we are still yet to retest the previous resistance and breakout level at 34.50-34.80, which can offer a good opportunity to go long
Stops: Would need to be below 34.30
Initial Target: Back to 35.30-35.60, but if the fundamentals remain strong then we can have full target back towards 37.00
Previous Trade Ideas Still Valid
EURUSD -
NFP report for Thursday July 3, the crucial figure of the weekBeware this week for stock market fundamentals, as it's a special week. Friday, July 4 is an Independence Day holiday in the United States. On July 4, 1776, the Continental Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence, a text drafted principally by Thomas Jefferson, which proclaimed that the 13 American colonies had officially separated from the United Kingdom.
For this first week of July on the stock market, this has a direct impact on the US fundamentals update. As you may know, it's the first Friday of every month that the US NFP report is updated, which is the monthly report on the US labor market. Consequently, this particular week sees the publication of the NFP report brought forward from Friday July 4 to Thursday July 3. It is therefore the stock market session on Thursday July 3 that will be the fundamental highlight of the week, with the NFP report likely to have a strong influence on the FED's monetary policy decision on Wednesday July 30.
1) The probability of the FED cutting its rate on Wednesday July 30 is just 21%
At this stage, and following last Friday's US PCE inflation update, the probability of the FED resuming the cut in the federal funds rate is just over 20%. Despite the strong pressure exerted by Donald Trump on Jerome Powell's FED, the FOMC (the FED's monetary policy committee) is in no hurry to cut rates in the face of the risk of a rebound in inflation caused by tariffs.
Last week, we offered you a fundamental analysis of the FED, which you can reread by clicking on the image below.
2) The US labor market seems to be starting to deteriorate according to the continuing weekly jobless claims
In reality, there is only one fundamental factor that could allow the FED rate to be cut at the monetary meeting on Wednesday July 30: a deterioration in the labor market with the NFP report figures on Thursday July 3. It's true that the latest updates on ongoing weekly US jobless claims show an increasingly negative dynamic which could end up feeding the US unemployment rate higher.
3) Beware, the slightest upward tick in the US unemployment rate when the NFP report is updated on Thursday July 3 could accelerate the FED's timetable for resuming the US federal funds rate
Keep in mind that the FED is pursuing two major objectives: inflation under control at around 2% and low unemployment. The FED's alert threshold is currently 4.4% of the labor force, and the consensus for the NFP report update of Thursday July 3 is 4.3% of the labor force.
CAUTION therefore: if the US unemployment rate makes 1 or 2 upward ticks this Thursday, the probability of a FED rate cut on Wednesday July 30 will rise sharply. This is the fundamental highlight of the week.
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GOLD SHORT TRADE IDEA ! Gold Looking For Sell On Order Block Zone 3331/3334 Target Will Be 3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish Engulfing + Fresh Supply Target Will Be 3275
Gold Sell First Zone OB H1 (3331/3335
Stoploss - 3345
Tp Levels - 3325,3320,3310,3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish EG + Fresh Supply (3338/3344)
Stoploss - 3350
TP levels : 3330; 3322; 3314; 3330, 3290
New rise in EURUSDYesterday, EURUSD continued its bullish movement, reaching 1,1807.
At current levels, all open buy positions should have their risk removed (e.g. stop loss at breakeven).
New buy entries are recommended only after a pullback with a favorable risk-reward setup.
Important news is expected later this week, which may lead to misleading price moves.
Reduce your risk and stay patient!
XAUUSD 4H – Full Technical & Fundamental Deep Dive🔷 Chart Structure & Trendlines
Since early June, gold has formed a clean descending channel on the 4‑hour chart. Each bounce and rejection has respected these channel edges, which reflect consistent lower highs and lower lows.
A long-term ascending trendline (from late March lows) was recently broken. This broken support has now flipped into resistance, and price is currently retesting it.
The intersection of the descending channel’s top, the trendline resistance, and the 200 EMA creates a major triple-confluence zone—a classic area of institutional interest.
🔷200 EMA
The 200 EMA on the 4H chart is acting as dynamic overhead resistance, which price is currently testing.
Historically, during bearish regime, retests of the 200 EMA from below often trigger strong rejections.
If price breaks above and holds, it would mark a significant shift in market sentiment. If rejected, it adds weight to the bearish trend.
🔷Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Supply Order Blocks
A Fair Value Gap (vicinity of $3,340–3,350) remains structurally unfilled from the previous breakdown.
Price is now re-entering that FVG region—an area often used by smart money to target liquidity and trap retail traders.
This is a logical zone for sell orders, as price frequently reacts where gaps exist.
🔷Volume Profile: High/Low Volume Nodes
A High-Volume Node (HVN) sits around $3,360, where most sustained trading has occurred. This acts as a strong resistance/distribution area.
The current zone ($3,330–3,340) is a low-volume pocket, meaning moves through here can be fast, but rejections are still frequently seen.
Below, there's another HVN around $3,280–3,290—a logical demand area and intermediate target for retracement.
🔷Fundamental Perspective – This Week to Friday
🔸 U.S. Fed Outlook & Dollar Dynamics
U.S. dollar is weak, with growing speculation on imminent Fed rate cuts, partly due to pressure from political sources
Fed remains cautious—no July cut likely, more probable in September
Persistent volatility in Fed messaging means gold remains in play as a hedge.
🔸 Geopolitical & Macro Drivers
Geopolitical tensions (Middle East, trade) continue to add safe-haven support
Central banks, especially Australia, are upping gold purchases—may add structural support
🔸 Market Sentiment & Investment Flows
ETF inflows remain robust—global central bank demand offsetting retail weakness
Some macro research houses expect sideways action into early July, with range likely between $3,200–3,350
🔸 Risks Ahead of Friday
Watch for U.S. jobs data, Fed speakers, and geopolitical headlines—any surprise could spark sharp moves.
If Fed hints at delays in rate cuts or geopolitical risk cools, gold could see a rapid reactive drop.
🔷🤔 Possible Scenarios into Friday
✅ Bearish Rejection
Price fails to clear $3,340–$3,360 zone.
A strong rejection candle retests $3,280–$3,290.
Could accelerate down to $3,240 if momentum picks up.
⚠️ Bullish Breakout
Clean, high-volume break above 200 EMA and $3,360 HVN.
Likely continuation to $3,380–3,400, especially if supported by fundamentals (e.g., inflation, Fed dovish pivot).
🔷My Personal Bias into Friday
Slight bearish lean due to triple resistance confluence.
Fundamentals are mixed: Fed caution supports gold structurally but no immediate catalyst.
I will monitor price action closely: a sharp rejection off the 200 EMA area would confirm suspicion; but a clean breakout would require reassessment.
KULR | High-Growth Channel Reversal – Targets +298% to +2,368%📍 Ticker: AMEX:KULR (KULR Technology Group, Inc.)
📆 Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
📉 Price: $7.11
📈 Pattern: Rising parallel channel with bullish consolidation
🔍 Technical Setup:
AMEX:KULR is respecting a clean ascending channel since early 2023 and is currently consolidating just above key support and the lower trendline, forming a launch base.
🔵 Key Resistance: $6.51 has flipped to support
📈 Price bounced from demand zone + holding mid-channel
📊 Volume profile supports accumulation at lows
🧠 Trade Plan & Dynamic Stop:
📥 Entry Zone: $6.80–$7.20
⛔ Trailing Stop: A few % below the lower rising trendline
→ Trail it dynamically as the channel rises (e.g. ~4–7% buffer under trendline)
🎯 Targets & ROIC:
🎯 Target 1: $9.45
→ Return: +31.3%
🎯 Target 2: $28.81
→ Return: +305.1%
🎯 Target 3 (Channel Top): $168.12
→ Return: +2,268%
⚠️ Key Technical Notes:
Bullish retest of major breakout zone ($6.50) is holding
Trendline structure is strong → perfect for trend-following strategy
Trailing stop method protects gains without prematurely exiting
Momentum expected to increase above $9.00
💬 Is KULR about to explode higher with the next growth leg?
Watch for confirmation above $9.50 for breakout acceleration.
#KULR #ChannelBreakout #SmallCapTech #ExplosiveSetup #TrendTrading #TargetTraders
SOLANA → BINANCE:SOLUSDT.P is consolidating after breaking through trend resistance. The market trigger is 148.0, and Bitcoin is provoking the market to recover...
The market is buying back all the losses. SOL breaks the local downward resistance and forms consolidation with a trigger of 148.0. The market has come to life following the rallying Bitcoin. If the general trend continues, SOL may break out of the accumulation zone and form a distribution towards 154.0
The latest retest of resistance is provoking a correction. Before rising, the price may test the zone of interest at 144 or the lower boundary of consolidation at 142.2. The ideal scenario would be a false breakdown of support at 142.2 before rising.
Resistance levels: 148.0, 154.2
Support levels: 142.2, 137.5
Fundamentally, the situation for the crypto market is improving. Technically, the market is also showing positive dynamics. SOL is consolidating after growth, which is generally a positive sign. Now we need to wait for the price to break out of consolidation and continue its growth. One of the signs of this is a rebound from the 0.5 range and a quick retest of resistance with a gradual squeeze towards the trigger.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Chainlink, The Fed, Vanguard, Crypto & Apple"Buy the rumor, sell the fact." The market tends to price-in an event before it happens. I am talking about the reduction in interest rates. The participants are aware that there will be a reduction in interest rates by the Fed and this is bullish and so buying starts to happen much sooner compared to the announcement of the actual event. By the time the event becomes a reality, it is already priced-in. Meaning...
Chainlink is bullish now and the chart is the same as HIVEUSDT, which I shared just now, and many other altcoins. This is good because we know what happens next. If there are other pairs with the same chart but moving up, moving ahead, then we know that these two and all those other staying behind will also follow, makes sense? Sure it does. We are all one. What one does, the rest follows.
Chainlink (LINKUSDT) is set to grow. Easy to see, higher highs and higher lows.
Will the market go up because of the Fed? We can say so before or after the event, right now the only important action is to buy-and-hold. It is important to be fully invested in Crypto, because Crypto is outperforming every other risk-asset in the entire world. You want be in in the market that is about to pay. You don't want to be holding bonds or index funds, that's a huge mistake. You buy these stuff to make money, you can make with Crypto in 6 months what an index fund (Vanguard SPX) will pay in a decade... Do the math, are you a young adult, are you smart? If you are, take action now before it is too late.
Your choice of course. Imagine the people in the 80s investing in Gold rather than Google, Microsoft and Apple... Big mistake.
Namaste.
Safe Entry Zone AURStock Current Movement Up.
despite the Ranging movement AUR still in Up-Movement unless Break Down the current 4h Green Zone Which act as last hope for
AUR to still be in Up Direction Movement.
Current 4h Green Zone is Strongest Support level AUR Has Only thing waiting for at current Zone is Strong Buyer to Step-in.
P.Low & P.High (Previous Low & Previous High) Acts as good Support and Resistance levels watch out for any buying/selling pressure at these lines to secure profit.
AUR Target 4h Red Zone.
Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
2- How to Buy Stock:
On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in.
Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the
AVGO ( Broadcom.Inc ) NASDAQ:AVGO - Continuation of movement within the ascending channel + potential for a breakout to new historical highs. 🔍 Rationale:
• After a strong correction in the first quarter of 2025, the price formed a reversal and has been moving in a clear ascending channel since the beginning of May.
• The channel support and resistance are clearly being worked out, the price is steadily bouncing off the lower border.
• Bollinger Bands show a narrowing - momentum is possible.
• Trading volume is stable, there are no signs of a strong sell-off.
06/30/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +212
Sleep: 7 hours
Overall health: Good, caught up on workout and sleep over the weekend.
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 2/4 success**
— 12:20 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal :x:
— 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!:check:
— 1:55 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal :x:
— 2:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
**What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
**
The X1 Signals today has been happening after market structure signals and usally that means MM is going to change the direction to the opposite way to scam us. Based on that, I decided to lock out my account after making $200 today so i don't get caught in the scam.
News
EU TO ACCEPT TRUMP’S UNIVERSAL TARIFF BUT SEEKS KEY EXEMPTIONS — 2:07 PM
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6240= Bullish, Under 6210= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Gold Trading Strategy July 1✏️ D1 candle has a bullish recovery when closing above 50% of last Friday's decline.The bullish wave of Gold is forming, heading back to the GAP 3363 zone.Today's main strategy is to wait for BUY if there is a retest of 3300. Reaction sell strategy is focused on resistance zones with not too long expectations.
📈 Key Levels
Support 3300- 3379- 3360
Resistance 3334-3348-3363
📊 Recommended Trade Setups
BUY GOLD 3300-3298 Stoploss 3295
SELL GOLD 3348-3350 Stoploss 3353
6/30/25 - $cvna - Sizing up... again? tf lol6/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:CVNA
Sizing up... again? tf lol
- "tf" is the theme of rn
- do stonks rumble higher w/ some garden variety pullbacks? yes, i think so
- but guys... there are some real terminal losers out there trading like they just discovered the cure for death
- if you like this one, perhaps you should consider tsla
- when i get this one (cvna) pitched... it's like when new-to-be-rekt-crypto-bros tell me "XRP is going to beat BTC". no it won't. and that's an incomplete thesis.
- cvna sells cars to poor people with bad credit and then off balance sheets this risk to other "parties" (some of which are related parties) and that train will run off the tracks, eventually. tomorrow? probably not.
- but as we round the corner into 2H, funds that own this (Like we saw w/ pltr on friday) will say "do i need as much cvna".
- ofc there will always be those who think they've got a winner
- but the market is smart.
- so just keep your head screwed on
- because this one is setting up nicely, again, on the short side
V
#XAUUSD 30MIN 📉 #XAUUSD 30m Sell Setup – Bearish Continuation Ahead
Gold is currently retracing after a strong drop, consolidating within a short-term Supply Zone. We anticipate a temporary bullish push toward the 3345–3350 premium area, where the broader bearish trend is expected to resume.
🔻 Sell Zone: 3345 – 3350 (Supply / OB Zone)
🎯 Targets: 3300 → 3260
❌ Stop Loss: Above 3358
⚠ Note: This is a short-term retracement, not a trend reversal.
We expect selling pressure to return once price taps into the 3350 Order Block, in line with the higher timeframe bearish structure.
#gold #XAUUSD #forexsignals #SmartMoney
Battle Plan – 30 JuneHey, Snipers! It’s Sunday night, the real ones are back on the charts and the tourists are out of the game.
Last week, gold tried every trick in the book: fake bounces, liquidity sweeps, endless bearish grind. Every move up got sold. If you traded like a sniper, you’re still standing. If you chased dips blindly, you’re probably licking your wounds.
🌍Macro snapshot:
Dollar’s holding firm — no rescue from US news, just choppy reactions.
War headlines are everywhere, but structure is king: EMAs are stacked, every rally is just bait for liquidity.
Market’s running on fear and patience. Fast money gets chopped, disciplined money survives.
Sniper Mindset:
⛔No bias, no forced trades. The real win is in the waiting.
Structure will show you who’s in control — your job is to react, not predict.
🥷 GoldFxMinds Battle Plan – 30 June (Trade Nation Feed)
Demand (Buy) Zones:
3265–3245: The “half-mitigated” trap. Most buyers are already underwater — we wait for a real PA shift. First green candle? Ignore it. Let them get trapped.
3215–3200: This is the sniper zone for real discount hunters. If price freefalls, we watch for exhaustion, divergence, and a proper story. One clean engulfing here and the bounce can be massive.
3180–3160: Only for flash crash days — this is where pain turns into opportunity. But you wait for panic, not “hope trades.”
Supply (Sell) Zones:
3287–3300: First sell window — if price spikes, watch for that classic NY liquidity grab and an instant rejection.
3320–3335: The “don’t even try to buy here” zone. OB, FVG, and every EMA lines up — if the market gets here, expect a brutal fade.
3345–3360: Premium fantasy land for sellers. If bulls get cocky, this is where the big shorts reload for the next leg down.
🧠Sniper Mindset:
EMAs stacked above? No dreams, only discipline.
No confirmation in your zone? Stand down — the market isn’t your friend.
Most traders buy “cheap” — we buy right.
If the story’s not clear, patience pays. The first bounce is a trap, the second is the setup.
📝June’s about to end. Let’s close it out with surgical entries and sniper exits.
Stay sharp, stay humble, and let the crowd chase while we collect.
🧠Remember: green candles aren’t invitations, they’re traps for the impatient.
Wait for confluence, act on logic, and journal every single lesson.
Gold rewards discipline — not luck.
If you’re serious about gold, learn this:
Zone + confluence + confirmation = sniper entry.
Anything else is just gambling with a nice chart.
Review your trades, journal your mistakes, and stop blaming the market for your impatience.
Hit like🚀, follow, and drop your trading question if you want the next level.
See you on the Trade Nation feed.
Oscar (OSCR) – Tech-Enabled Healthcare with Margin Momentum Company Snapshot:
Oscar NYSE:OSCR Health is a technology-focused health insurer leveraging data and digital platforms to deliver affordable, personalized care. Its platform-centric model improves member experience, cost control, and care outcomes—setting it apart in a highly regulated sector.
Key Catalysts:
Steady Execution Under Proven Leadership 🧠
CEO Mark Bertolini (ex-Aetna) brings credibility and strategic clarity, reinforcing investor trust in Oscar’s long-term viability.
Focus remains on operational discipline, risk management, and scalable infrastructure.
2025 Guidance Reaffirmed 📊
Following a solid quarter, Oscar reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance, projecting margin expansion and sustained growth despite sector headwinds.
Medical loss ratio (MLR) held steady at 75.4%, absorbing a $31M prior-period hit—showing resilience in cost containment.
Robust Financial Flexibility 💰
With $1B+ in free cash flow, Oscar is well-positioned for:
Organic growth in new markets
Potential share buybacks or dividends
Continued investment in digital infrastructure
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Entry Zone: Above $17.00–$17.50
Upside Target: $32.00–$33.00, supported by margin stability, capital strength, and smart execution.
🩺 Oscar is transforming health insurance from reactive to predictive—backed by tech, discipline, and capital strength.
#OscarHealth #OSCR #HealthTech #InsurTech #DigitalHealth #MarkBertolini #MedicalLossRatio #FreeCashFlow #TechEnabledCare #HealthcareStocks #Bullish #ValueDelivery #HealthInnovation
GBPJPY SELL IDEAPrice reached a daily resistance last week and respected it. The price was consolidating and finally broke the previous low (support) on the H4 chart, forming a lower low and signaling the beginning of a downtrend/fall.
I'm on the lookout for a retest of the broken support on H1 for entry for a sell to the next low.
Risk - 30 pips
Reward - 172 pips
Gold price analysis July 1On the D1 chart, the price has recovered positively when the candle closed above 50% of the decrease range of last Friday's session. This shows that buying power is returning and a new uptrend is forming, with the target heading towards the GAP zone around 3363.
Today's trading strategy:
Prioritize buying (BUY) if the price has a correction to the support zone of 3300.
Sell strategy should only be implemented at important resistance zones, with short-term profit expectations because the main trend is leaning towards the uptrend.
Important technical levels:
Support: 3300 - 3337 - 3360
Resistance: 3334 - 3348 - 3363
Strategy H2 2025. BTC Airless Plot Near $100'000 Choking PointOver the past 6 months, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated a very mixed up/down performance, marked by significant price fluctuations, appreciation and volatility.
From late December 2024 to June 2025, BTC's price rose from approximately $92,000 to around $108,000, representing a gain of about 17.26% over this period.
On the other hand. the price fluctuated between last price in 2024 $92,000 and BTC' low near $74,491 achieved in early April 2025, posting the similar, nearly 20 percent year-to-date decline.
Bitcoin's price trajectory during this time was influenced by several factors. Early in 2025, BTC reached a new all-time high near $109,000 but faced a pullback triggered by profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties, dropping nearly 30% to about $74,000 by April. This decline was short-lived, as Bitcoin quickly rebounded by roughly 24%, climbing back to mid-$90,000 levels and eventually surpassing $100,000 again by June, signaling wide range fluctuations are getting for longer.
The technical setup suggests that Bitcoin is poised for further swings around $100'000 choking point.
In summary, Bitcoin’s performance over the last six months has been characterized by sharp correction, mixed technical buy and sell signals, with no any solid fundamental support from institutional investors.
These factors collectively indicate a mixed outlook for BTC, with further price fluctuations in wide range, as a mid-term pricе action perspective for H2 2025 and for longer.
Similar like a year ago 52-week SMA could be considered as major support level.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
Dollar Index DXY AnalysisSince the start of 2025, the US Dollar index DXY has faced a downside pressure driven by several key factors:
* Ongoing uncertainty around the US President trade tensions with major economies.
* Global Central banks reducing dollar exposure and reallocation toward other currencies and Gold.
* Growing market expectations for Fed rate cuts starting Sept-25.
* Raising concerns regarding US Debt levels, amplified recently by the "Big Beautiful Bill"
* Renewed clashes between Trump & Powell, raising concerns regarding the Feds credibility.
With all the factors above affecting DXY negatively, we have key major areas to keep our eye on:
* Breaking below the 96.5 we could visit the 95.5, and with additional sellers' momentum we could see the next level of 93.5
* On the other hand, if we have economic data supporting dollar strength. Breaking above 97.7 our next target could be 98.5, and with additional buyers' momentum we could revisit the 100-level flat.
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