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MSTU to fly soon....you need to see the signsLet's take a step back. Higher lows!!! and BTC is hitting a double bottoms during a terrible week in stock. That should be telling that while we are making a turn (with volatility), there is a very fav upside case here. I'm not emotional about any of this, just follow the signs and the data! Next week will be epic IMHO. Lock it in at a good price before it spikes and you miss out on the train. All the best and safe trading. Always remember to have an exit strategy and follow the signs / data. It's all risk / reward. No risk -> no reward!
CBOE:MSTULong
by antonini2002
4
Structural analysis and operation suggestions after gold washAnalysis of gold market trend: Gold fluctuated quite a lot yesterday. It rose at the opening yesterday, rising to nearly 60 US dollars, and then fell back after being blocked at the 3167 line. However, it fell below 3100, and the lowest to the top and bottom conversion was around 3054, a drop of nearly 114 US dollars. Beyond expectations, it pulled back to 80 US dollars, and the daily line finally closed with a cross Yin line. The rapid roller coaster is too scary. The market volatility is too large, so you can only watch more and do less. If you encounter non-agricultural data, according to yesterday's trend, the market may not be so big today. After all, it has already ended yesterday. When the price fell sharply, and then there was a sharp rebound to stand firm at 3100, the market of gold yesterday was thrilling, a super roller coaster, and the difficulty of gold operation has increased a lot. However, this kind of market is rare after all. After the ups and downs of gold, it will return to normal. Although today's non-agricultural data, I personally tend to fluctuate in a large range. It is estimated that it will not break yesterday's high point or yesterday's low point. If combined with silver, gold is still oscillating and bearish. At present, it should peak in the short term, and it will choose a direction after a correction. Gold technical analysis: Therefore, gold is not as strong as before, so it is possible for gold to rise or fall in this state. Pay attention to the previous high of 3150 on the upside, and pay attention to the gains and losses of 3055 on the downside. The 4-hour cycle has cleverly entered the oscillation range. Although the market has gone out of the big drop space, the 4-hour cycle Bollinger has not opened, and the moving average system has not diverged. The effective range for the time being is within 3085/3135. Therefore, if there is no large fluctuation on Friday, you can refer to the range of the 4-hour cycle to do high-altitude and low-multiple transactions. The 1-hour moving average of gold still shows signs of turning downward, but the rise of gold in the US market has not allowed the 1-hour moving average of gold to enter the dead cross pattern, but the gold bulls are not very strong. Of course, there is also the impact of non-agricultural data. It is expected that after the big rise and fall on Thursday, the impact of Friday's data will not be great. Before the release of non-agricultural data, we should operate in the range of 3120-3066. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is to short on rebound and long on pullback. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3120-3125 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3054-3066 support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm. We must control the position and stop loss, set stop loss strictly, and do not resist single operation. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday. Welcome to experience, exchange real-time market conditions, and follow real-time orders. Gold operation strategy: Short order strategy: Strategy 1: Short gold rebound near 3120-3125, stop loss 6 points, target near 3100-3085, break to see 3065 line; Long order strategy: Strategy 2: Long gold pullback near 3070-3065, stop loss 6 points, target near 3100-3090, break to see 3110 line;
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
USD/JPY Market Update – 04 April 2025The USD/JPY pair has been trending lower, reflecting recent weakness in the US dollar and renewed strength in the Japanese yen, which is often viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. In addition, markets appear to be pricing in potential policy divergence between the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the US Federal Reserve, contributing to recent moves. It’s worth noting that upcoming US employment data may have a significant impact on this pair, potentially increasing market volatility. From a technical standpoint, several scenarios may unfold: • The pair could approach the 146.5 area, where signs of resistance have previously emerged. If bearish momentum continues, it may revisit the 143.5 region. A break below this level could see the pair testing the psychological 140 mark – a zone that, historically, has attracted buyer interest. • Alternatively, if the price moves above the 143.7 level and establishes support, it could indicate a shift in short-term sentiment. In such a case, a potential move towards the 150 level may be observed, particularly if supported by stronger-than-expected US employment figures. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
BTC(20250404) market analysis and operationTechnical analysis of BTC contract on April 4: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single negative and a single positive. The price was still at a low level. The fast and slow lines of the attached chart indicator were glued together and flattened, but it was obvious that the rising price was suppressed, and the pullback was not strong. On the contrary, there seemed to be more opportunities for decline. From the overall technical indicators, the decline in the big trend is still very obvious, so the idea remains unchanged and continue to sell; in the short cycle, the current price is still in a volatile trend. The four-hour chart has a single negative and a single positive, and the attached chart indicator is dead cross, but the strength has not come out. The hourly chart corrected the high point position of 84,000 after the sharp drop this week. The current attached chart indicator is golden cross running, and there is no room for rise or fall, so wait and see during the day, pay attention to the strength and weakness of the European market and the impact of the evening data
Short
by BraveTigercat
Trump single handedly started a worldwide recession- of course, economic recessions and a stock market correction/crash are two very different things but in this case it does seem like both are probably connected seeing tariff implementations against basically the entire world are hardly productive in an economic sense - with March´s close, the 3M candle closed as a BEARISH engulfing - SPX to fall at least to the 600 level but even a scenario such as a year to two year long bear market should not be excluded In addition, there is a REAL RISK of China expediting its process of unification with Taiwan and could use the overall macro uncertainty as a veil under which it may attack the island sooner rather than in 2027 or 2028.
SP:SPXShort
by Mansasuma
S&P 500 correction before the global fall.S&P 500 correction before the global fall of the usa stock market. Hey traders! I’m sure many of you have noticed that after the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, the markets started getting pretty choppy. The S&P 500 took a serious dive. • On the weekly chart, I’ve marked a support level + the 161.8% Fibonacci level, where we might see a bounce back to the $5680–$5800 range. • But from there, I think we could see the start of a major crash—both in equities and crypto—that could last 1–2 years. • Based on my estimates, the S&P 500 could drop back to 2020–2021 levels, a wide range of 2200–3000. • For Bitcoin, we’re talking around $5000; for Ethereum, $100–$300; and for Solana, $2–$12. 3D Chart: 3W Chart: Real-world events that could tank the stock market this hard: Global Recession: If major economies (US, China, EU) slide into a recession at the same time—think trade wars, rampant inflation, or a debt crisis—investors will dump risky assets like hot potatoes. Trade War Escalation: Harsher tariffs between the US and China/EU could wreck supply chains, crush corporate earnings, and spark a full-on market panic. Geopolitical Conflict: A big blow-up—like a full-scale war or crisis (say, Taiwan or the Middle East)—could send capital fleeing to safe havens (gold, bonds), while stocks and crypto get slaughtered. Collapse of a Major Financial Player: If a big bank or hedge fund goes bust (Lehman Brothers 2.0-style) due to an overheated market or bad debt, it could trigger a domino effect. Energy Crisis: A spike in oil/gas prices (from sanctions or conflicts, for example) could kneecap the economy and drag risk assets down with it. Market Bubble Burst: If the current rally turns out to be a massive bubble (and plenty of folks think it is), its pop could pull indexes down all on its own. Looming Wars: A potential Russia-Europe war starting as early as 2025, or an Iran-Israel conflict that drags in multiple nations, could destabilize global markets, spike energy prices, and send investors running for the exits.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SergioRichi
Stellantis Long Play despite the tariffsI'm a deep value investor. Current price 8.58 euros per share I've been looking at Stellantis for a while now and I've done a deep dive in the company's financial and its fundamental value. It's my opinion that the company is fundamentally strong but being traded at a lower price right now. it has dropped 65% since last year and almost 6% today. The 65% drop has been a significant overreaction to the a missed earnings forecast which has been due to forign currency depriciation in turkish lira (once you do a deep dive in the company's accounts). but the company is still significantly profitable and has a growing revenue and earnings forecast. Today's 6% drop is an understandable yet overreaction to trump's tariffs as most of the company's buiness is done outside the US and they are betting big on EU and GB car sales (and have been growing in it) Bottom line is the company is currently priced way below its intrinsic value. its beeing traded at 0.3 times its book value while automotives are being traded at an average 1.7 time book value, and its price to earnings ration (at this time) is 4.57 while automotives average P/E is 11.79 (slightly lifted by TSLA but still) I'm expecting a target of 12.6 euros per share within the next 6 months. If you didn't see my last position on CMC markets see my account.
EURONEXT:STLAPLong
by notalireza
1
BTC 1H — Pre-News SetupAt the moment, Bitcoin is showing a confident upward movement, but several signals point to possible caution: • Price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band , often signaling local overheating. • RSI is at 65+ , approaching overbought territory. • Coinbase Premium is still negative (-13.06) — this suggests that institutional players are not yet aggressively buying. • Volume is rising, but not showing major spike activity — likely retail-driven momentum. This looks like a classic distribution phase ahead of a possible shakeout or reaction to upcoming macroeconomic events. Watch out for key data drops: 04 April 12:30 UTC — Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate 04 April 15:25 UTC — Fed Chair Powell Speech My plan: I'm out of position and observing. If news hits negatively, this could be a setup for a sharp correction. Be cautious. Patience is a position.
by RobertAIss
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 07 - April 11]This week, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply from 3,076 USD/oz to 3,168 USD/oz, then made a "reverse" move to 3,015 USD/oz and closed this week at 3,038 USD/oz. The reason why the price of gold increased sharply to 3,168 USD/oz in the trading session on April 3 was because US President Donald Trump decided to impose reciprocal taxes from 10% to 49% on many trading partners. However, it was also because of the tariff issue that caused the gold price to break the upward trend right after the Trump administration announced a list of tariff exemptions for many goods. Meanwhile, many countries have also proactively negotiated with the US to reduce import taxes on US goods, import more goods from the US to contribute to gradually balancing the trade balance with the US so that the Trump administration can remove tariffs. In addition, the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for March unexpectedly jumped to 228,000 jobs, much higher than the forecast of 137,000 jobs. This shows that the US labor market is still positive, causing investors to believe that the FED may continue to delay cutting interest rates. In addition, FED Chairman Powell also said that the Trump administration's recent reciprocal tariff policy will cause inflation to increase for a long time, risking pushing the US economy into recession. This implies that the FED will not cut interest rates in the upcoming meetings. In particular, the stock market has fallen too sharply, causing investors to close profitable gold investment positions to add margin (cover losses) for stocks. According to many experts, gold prices may continue to adjust next week, but will not fall too deeply. Because the Russia-Ukraine war and armed conflicts in the Middle East are still complicated. Moreover, China has just imposed an additional 34% tax on all US goods. Without hesitation, Canada also imposed a 25% import tax on all cars imported from the US that are not eligible for preferential treatment in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). If more countries retaliate against the US like China and Canada, the trade war will become increasingly heated, pushing the world economy into instability, increasing the role of gold as a safe haven. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Inflation and the Fed will be back in the spotlight next week, with the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. This will be followed by the US consumer price index (CPI) report for March on Thursday, and the producer price index (PPI) on Friday. Friday morning will also see the latest preliminary survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan – a key indicator of how Americans feel about the outlook for the economy. 📌Technically, observing the H4 chart, it is necessary to pay attention to the important support level at 3,000 USD/oz. If next week the gold price trades above this level, it can re-enter the correction phase to 3085. In case the 3000 round resistance level is broken, the gold price will continue to be under selling pressure, causing the price to drop to around 2,900-2,950 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,019 – 3,000 USD Resistance: 3,050 – 3,056 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3093 - 3091⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3097 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2988 - 2990⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2984
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Eli Lilly: Catch the Knife or Wait for Support?LLY Just Dropped — Opportunity or Trap? 🔥 LLY (Eli Lilly) is on every trader’s radar! With biotech momentum and blockbuster drug potential, this stock is ready to rip once the dust settles. Smart money is eyeing key zones for a golden entry. 💊📈 📉 New Entry Zones: 🔥 630.00 – Solid buy level 🔥 550.00 – Strong value zone 🔥 465.00 – Deep discount opportunity (load-up zone!) 🎯 Profit Targets: ✅ 730.00 📈 (First leg up) ✅ 800.00 🚀 (Breakout zone) ✅ 900.00+ 💰 (All-time high chase) 💡 Volatility creates opportunity. LLY is a beast in the pharma game—any dip could set up a powerful bounce. Watch for heavy accumulation and reversal signals near those buy zones! 🚀 Ready to ride the next wave? LLY’s runway is long and the upside is juicy! #LLY #PharmaStocks #BuyTheDip #GrowthPlays 📌 Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research and consult with a professional before investing. 🔎💼
NYSE:LLYLong
by Robert_V12
USDCAD, Bearish Bias, Fundamentally and TechnicallyFundamental Analysis 1. Endogenous and Exogenous factors indicates bearish trend in USDCAD. 2.USD is getting weaker in previous months while CAD is stronger 3. Seasonality also shoes bullish trend in CAD in April and Bearish in USD 4. COT report of USD indicates continuous reduction in long positions by NON-COM 5. Sentiments of USD and CAD are both bearish due to Tariffs but CAD will improve in coming days. Technical Analysis. 1. Weekly chart shows Bearish RSI divergence with consolidation Box 2. Daily chart shows breakdown of consolidation box with Head and Shoulder pattern with retracement/retest 3. Entry of short sell in 2 parts i. Enter at current price with 1% risk ii. Enter at 1.43769 4. Stoploss above right shoulder 1.45597 5. Initial target at weekly support 1.39497
Short
by itsrohansaeed
XAUUSD Weekly Swing Trade Setup (Targeting New Highs) Entry 2990 Last week's price action in XAUUSD was dramatic. Initial surges, driven by tariff announcements, propelled the pair to record highs. However, this was followed by a significant correction, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty as we enter the new week. Considering the current market context (tariff implications, upcoming US economic data, central bank commentary) and the potential for continued volatility, this swing trade idea is indeed ambitious. The Core Strategy: We are anticipating a further decline in XAUUSD to a major support level. The key to this trade will be observing a strong rejection at this support, indicating renewed buying pressure. The ultimate goal is to capitalize on this potential rebound and ride the momentum towards making new all-time highs. Key Considerations for the Coming Week: Identify the Major Support Level: Pinpointing this level is crucial. It could be a significant previous swing low, a key Fibonacci retracement level, or a strong psychological barrier. Careful technical analysis is required to determine the most probable zone. Confirmation of Rejection: We will be looking for clear bullish price action at the identified support. This could include bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing bar, pin bar), positive divergence on momentum indicators, or a break of a short-term downtrend line. Risk Management: Given the ambition of targeting new all-time highs after a significant correction, robust risk management is paramount. This includes setting a well-defined stop-loss order below the identified support level to protect capital in case the rejection doesn't materialize. Position sizing should also be carefully considered. Potential Catalysts: Be aware of the upcoming economic data and central bank commentary, as these events could significantly impact price action and either support or invalidate this trade idea. Patience is Key: This is a swing trade, and the anticipated move may take time to develop. Avoid premature entry and wait for clear confirmation of the rejection at the support level. In essence, this is a contrarian swing trade based on the expectation that the underlying bullish drivers for gold will reassert themselves after the recent correction. We are aiming to buy low at a significant support level with the high-conviction target of reaching new all-time highs. Disclaimer: This is a potential trade setup idea and not financial advice. Trading Forex involves significant risk, and you could lose your capital. Conduct thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by F0rexBorex
EUR/JPY Falling Wedge Breakout | Bullish Potential Ahead🔍 Chart Overview: EUR/JPY – Daily Timeframe This chart illustrates the price action of the Euro against the Japanese Yen and highlights a Falling Wedge Pattern developing over several months. This is a classic bullish continuation/reversal setup, supported by key technical levels. 📐 1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern that occurs when the market consolidates between two downward-sloping trendlines. Characteristics Seen in the Chart: Converging Trendlines: The upper (resistance) and lower (support) boundaries are both sloping downward, indicating a narrowing price range. Volume (not shown) usually decreases during the formation, followed by a surge on breakout. Multiple Touch Points: The price action respects both boundaries multiple times, confirming the pattern's validity. 🏛️ 2. Key Levels ✅ Support Level (Demand Zone): Marked around 156.000 – 158.000 Multiple bounces from this area, indicating strong buying interest. Aligned with the lower wedge trendline and historical price reaction zones. 🚫 Resistance Level (Supply Zone / Breakout Zone): Around 164.500 – 166.000 Price repeatedly failed to break this level, confirming it as a strong supply area. Confluence of horizontal resistance and the upper wedge boundary. 📊 3. Trade Setup 💼 Entry Strategy: Confirmation Buy: Enter a long position upon a daily candle close above the wedge resistance (around 166.000). Aggressive traders may consider an earlier entry near the wedge’s support with a tight stop. 🎯 Target: The projected target is 172.962, calculated based on the height of the wedge pattern added to the breakout point. This aligns with a previous swing high area, serving as a logical profit-taking zone. 🛑 Stop Loss: Positioned at 155.576, just below the key support zone. This allows the trade room to breathe while protecting against a full pattern failure. ⚖️ 4. Risk Management Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): Target around 172.962 and Stop Loss at 155.576 offer a favorable RRR of approximately 2.5:1 or more, depending on entry. Position Sizing: Use appropriate lot size based on your account risk tolerance (e.g., 1-2% of equity per trade). 📅 5. Timeframe Outlook Medium to Long-Term Setup: Since this is a daily chart, the trade may take weeks to months to fully play out. Patience and proper trade management are essential. 🔎 6. Additional Notes Retest Opportunity: If price breaks out, look for a retest of the resistance zone as new support before continuation to the upside. Fundamental Factors: Keep an eye on EUR and JPY economic data, ECB and BoJ policy announcements, and global risk sentiment, which can influence the pair. 🧭 Professional Takeaway This is a textbook bullish falling wedge pattern within a well-defined technical structure. The chart provides: A clear pattern breakout level, Strong historical support/resistance zones, A defined risk management plan, And a realistic price target based on technical projection. If you are a swing trader or position trader, this setup offers a high-probability opportunity with favorable risk-reward dynamics—provided a breakout is confirmed.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
JPY/USD Daily Chart – Falling Wedge Breakout & Bullish Target🔍 Full Technical Analysis of JPY/USD (Daily Timeframe) 🧭 Overview The chart shows a sophisticated price structure unfolding over several months. A falling wedge reversal pattern formed during a sustained downtrend, which later transitioned into a bullish breakout and continuation. This analysis provides insights into market behavior, price psychology, and a high-probability trading opportunity supported by classical technical analysis principles. 🔶 1. Market Context & Structure Before diving into the pattern, it’s essential to understand the macro structure of the chart: The pair experienced a strong bearish move from around August to December 2024, marked by lower highs and lower lows. During this decline, volatility gradually decreased, which often indicates seller exhaustion. A reversal zone emerged near a major support region — historically significant and previously tested. 🔷 2. The Falling Wedge Pattern (Reversal Signal) A falling wedge is a bullish reversal pattern that forms when price is in a downtrend but begins to consolidate within converging trendlines. This pattern typically signals that the downtrend is losing momentum and a breakout to the upside is imminent. 📌 Characteristics of This Wedge: Downward Convergence: The highs and lows begin to narrow over time, indicating reduced selling pressure. Volume Decline (Implied): Though not displayed, falling wedges usually see volume dry up before breakout. Duration: This wedge developed over several months (October 2024 – January 2025), lending strength to the pattern. False Break Attempts: Several lower spikes failed to break the support, showing buying interest building. ✅ Bullish Breakout: The breakout occurred decisively in late January 2025, with a large bullish candlestick closing above the upper wedge boundary — a confirmed breakout. Post-breakout, the price rallied strongly, indicating that buyers were firmly in control. 🔷 3. Support & Resistance Zones 🔽 Support Zone (Demand Area): Range: 0.006300 – 0.006400 Historical pivot zone where price previously reversed, now serving as a demand base. The lower wick rejections near this zone reinforce it as a high liquidity zone for buyers. 🔼 Resistance Zone (Supply Area): Range: 0.006850 – 0.006950 This area capped price during several prior rally attempts, making it a key breakout point. Once price broke above this zone, it became a support flip zone, indicating trend reversal confirmation. 🎯 Target Level: Marked at 0.007126, derived from a measured move: Measure the height of the wedge at its widest point. Project this vertically from the breakout level. This target aligns with psychological round numbers and prior resistance, adding confluence. 🔶 4. Post-Breakout Price Action: Bullish Retest A breakout is only the first part of a trade; the retest phase confirms the move and offers an optimal entry. 🔁 Retest Details: After reaching the resistance zone, price pulled back, testing both: The broken wedge trendline (now acting as dynamic support). The horizontal structure support zone near 0.006650–0.006700. A bullish engulfing candle or similar reversal pattern formed at this level — a classic retest entry. 📌 Trendline Respect: A rising dotted trendline was drawn from the breakout low through higher lows. This line acted as price memory and was respected multiple times, reinforcing the uptrend. 🔷 5. Trade Setup Breakdown This is a swing trade setup based on pattern breakout, structural confluence, and trend continuation. Here's how it’s structured: Component Details Pattern Falling Wedge (Reversal) Trade Bias Long (Buy) Entry Price ~0.006700 Stop Loss 0.006614 (below trendline) Target Price 0.007126 (measured wedge move) R/R Ratio Approx. 3:1 Timeframe Daily (Medium-term swing) 🧠 6. Market Psychology & Behavior Understanding the sentiment behind the candles is critical: ❗ Before the Breakout: Sellers dominated but with weakening momentum. Each push down was met with buying strength, seen in long wicks and smaller-bodied candles. ✅ At the Breakout: Buyers overwhelmed sellers, often with a volume spike and wide-bodied green candle. This is usually driven by institutional positioning and stop-loss triggering from short-sellers. 🔁 During the Retest: Some retail traders exited prematurely, fearing a fakeout. Smart money used the dip to accumulate positions, confirmed by the bounce from trendline. 🔼 Continuation Rally: Strong continuation candle signals momentum traders entering. Break above resistance signals a shift in sentiment and structure. 🛠️ 7. Strategy Notes & Professional Tips 📌 Risk Management: Never risk more than 1–2% of capital. Use dynamic trailing stop if price breaks above target zone. 📌 Trade Confirmation Ideas: Look for volume spikes on breakout candles. Use RSI or MACD divergence to confirm reversal (optional). Look for candlestick patterns (engulfing, pin bar) on retests. 📌 Exit Plan: Partial exit at key resistance. Full exit at projected target or if price forms reversal signs (e.g., doji at resistance). ✅ Final Summary This JPY/USD chart demonstrates an exemplary price action-based trading setup rooted in: A well-formed falling wedge (bullish reversal). Clean breakout + retest + continuation structure. Multiple confluence factors: trendline, horizontal S/R, pattern projection. Professional-grade risk/reward profile with a logical entry, stop, and target. This kind of setup is highly favored among swing traders, price action purists, and institutional-level strategists due to its clarity and predictability.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
US 10Y TREASURY: the Bad, the Good and TariffsAt the first look at the 10Y US benchmark chart, one might say that it looks pretty scary as of the end of last week. However, historically, it happens. Trade tariff war has started, which triggered a massive market uncertainty and a sell-off on financial markets. Naturally, the first idea in investors' perspectives for the future period is a recession on a world's scale and in the US and this was reflected in the US yields. It started at the beginning of the week, where yields from the 4,35% took the down course for the rest of the week, ending it with the 3,86% at the Fridays trading session. However, after reaching the lowest level, the yields reverted just a bit to end the week at the level of 3,99%. The strong move was also supported by Fed Chair Powell's comment that a trade war will have a negative effect on the US economy, which cannot be estimated at this moment. The volatility of markets might continue for another week in a row. Markets will cope with estimation of countermeasures, which are slowly announced by other countries. Based on current probabilities there are equal chances that the market will test the 4,0% level, or it might move once again down, to test levels below the 4%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Gold: covering market lossesFriday's trading session was one of the most painful ones in the recent history of financial markets, surpassing the depression after pandemic lockdown in 2020. The price of gold also pulled back on Friday, around 3%, ending the week at the level of $3.037. Analysts are noting that the sell-off of gold was triggered by investors who were selling this asset in order to cover margin calls from other markets. In addition, there are also fears of trade wars, which started after China imposed a 34% tariffs on all US goods, as a response to US tariffs. Regardless of this short retreat, gold continues to be perceived as a safe-haven asset for investors. At the start of the week, the price of gold reached a fresh, new all time highest level at $3.160. However, news regarding tariff-war triggered the main sell off on Thursday and Friday, and the price of gold ended the week at $3.037. The RSI reached the clear overbought market side, but ended the week at the level of 54. It still has not entered into the road toward the oversold market side, but there is some probability for this move in the coming period. There has not been much change when MA 50 and MA200 are in question. These lines continue to move as two parallel lines with an uptrend, without any kind of indication over a potential cross. At this moment, market uncertainty is at its highest level. During the week ahead, any new news regarding tariffs or countermeasures from other countries, will trigger market reaction. Volatility will continue to be high. In case that more investors sell gold in order to respond to margin calls, the price of gold would continue to drop further. However, if markets calm down, there is potential for a modest upside, probably until the level of $3,1K, but this should be taken with a reservation. Market optimism is at its lowest level now, so some significant moves toward the upside should not be expected. At this moment, the price of gold has equal chances for a move toward the up and down side during the week ahead.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
SPX: has the worst passed?This was the worst week for world stocks since the March 2020 pandemic lockdown collapse. This time it was caused by the simple move of the US Administration, which decided to implement trade tariffs to imports to the US, on all countries around the globe. Markets stayed in shock, just for the moment, and then, the inevitable happened - markets had only one move, and it was toward the downside. The question after Friday's sell-off is has the worst passed or is it yet to come? At the start of the week markets tried to be optimistic, as there was not so bad data posted for the US economy. However, news regarding tariffs spoiled the game, and the S&P 500 lost almost 6% in value during Friday's trading session. Charts look pretty painful at this moment. The index ended the week at the level of 5.074, where it last stood in April 2024. All sectors lost on Friday. Tesla was down by more than 10% within a day, Apple and Nvidia were down by around 7,3%, Amazon dropped by 4,15%, even Alibaba had a strong wipe in value of almost 10%. Considering the scale of implemented tariffs, markets will use another week to estimate the full effect of implemented tariffs, and counter-tariffs of other countries, including China. In this sense, some further moves toward the downside might be possible. This is a period of time when uncertainty is at its highest level, so any new news could push the markets higher toward one or the other side. Certainty, this is not the time when market optimism could be expected.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
EURUSD: Tariff – economicsAlmost every macro indicator and business news were left in a shadow during the previous week, because the main words which were shaping quite negative market sentiment were trade-tariffs. Investors are currently estimating the impact that the new US Administration trade tariffs imposed on imports to the US from almost all countries around the world, not only to the US economy, but for world growth during this year. As for macro news posted during the previous week for the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March was at the level of 49, slightly lower from forecasted 50. Job openings in February were at the level of 7.568M, lower from market estimate at 7,63M. The ISM Services PMI for March was at the level of 50,8, again lower from market consensus of 53. The most important macro data for the week were non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for March. The NFP added 228K jobs, above the market estimate of 135K. At the same time, the unemployment rate in March was higher by 0,1pp, reaching 4,2%. The average hourly earnings were higher by 0,3% for the month, bringing the indicator to the level of 3,8% on a yearly basis. The Retail sales in Germany in February were higher by 0,8% for the month, bringing the indicator to the level of 4,9% on a yearly basis. The Inflation rate in Germany, preliminary for March, was at the level of 0,3% for the month and 2,2% on a yearly basis, which was in line with market expectations. The Inflation rate for the Euro Zone, flash for March, was standing at the level of 2,2% y/y a bit lower from market estimate of 2,3%. The core inflation remained elevated at the level of 2,4%, but still a bit lower from forecasted 2,5%. The Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in February dropped to the level of 6,1%, from 6,2% posted for the previous month. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone in February was higher by 0,2% for the month and 3% on a yearly basis. Both figures were higher from market estimates. A shock wave hit financial markets after the US Administration announcement of new trade tariffs imposed for the rest of the world. The eurusd currency pair was in a sort of a rollercoaster during the second half of the week. The week started slowly around 1,078 level, but the Thursday trading session brought a significant move toward the higher grounds and the highest weekly level at 1,1145. Trading on Friday brought some relaxation and its return toward the level of 1,0955. The RSI entered into the clear overbought market side, but ended the week around the level of 62. The MA50 continues to strongly converge toward the MA200, erasing the distance between two lines, implying a potential cross in the near term period. The markets will use the week ahead to estimate a potential full effect of newly implemented trade tariffs on the US economy, but also for other economies around the globe. In this sense, some adjustments in the eurusd currency pair could be expected. The level of 1,09 is just the short term support line, when looking at historical moves of the currency pair. However, testing of 1,10 and 1,11 levels during the previous week, showed market sentiment, which is more oriented in favor of the euro. There is some probability that the 1,10 resistance line will be again tested in the week ahead. Probability for the downside is quite low at this moment. Still, if the market turns to this direction, then the next level to watch will be 1,08, historically important for eurusd. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Balance of Trade in February for Germany, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in February, USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes, Inflation rate in March, Producers Price Index for March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for April.
by XBTFX