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Fundamental Analysis

EUR: watch for a single word that could change everything The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its March 6 meeting, lowering the deposit rate to 2.5%. All 82 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the cut. So, with this in the bag, the focus shifts to what comes next. Markets see a 60% chance of another cut in April, but hawkish policymakers like Isabel Schnabel are pushing back. According to ING, a key signal will be whether the ECB drops the term “restrictive” from its stance. If it does, a pause could follow; if not, further cuts may be likely. Overall, though, the ECB is unlikely to provide detailed forward guidance. Factors like U.S. tariffs and developments in Ukraine could significantly impact the eurozone economy, making it difficult to set a long-term policy path.
by BlackBull_Markets
US 10Y TREASURY: uncertainty demands T-bonds Geopolitics were once again in the spotlight of market sentiment during the previous week. The uncertainty over the potential future increased tensions within the geopolitical sphere, pushed the US Treasury yields further to the lower grounds. Increased demand started with uncertainty over trade tariffs and currently is affected by politics. The funds from US equity markets fled toward the US Treasury bonds. The 10Y US benchmark yields started the week around 4,45% and ended it at 4,20%. Looking at charts, the major support line for 10Y US yields lies around the level of 4,15%. In this sense, there is space for yields to move further toward the downside. Whether this would be the case for the week ahead is uncertain. There is also probability for yields to revert a bit toward the higher grounds, but some significant move should not be expected in the week ahead. Potential level could be the 4,3%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
EURUSD: watch for NFPThe release of PCE data was the one closely watched by markets during the previous week. Released data show that the PCE Price Index reached 0,3% in January for the month and 2,5% on a yearly basis, which was in line with market expectations. The core PCE also reached o,3% in January. The personal income was higher by 0,9% for the month and personal expenditures decreased by -0,2% in January, compared to the previous month. As for other macro data posted for the US, the new home sales dropped by -10,5% in January compared to the previous month. This drop was much higher from expected -2,6%. The Durable goods orders were higher by 3,1% in January, higher from market estimate of 2%. The second estimate of the GDP Growth rate for Q4 was standing at 2,3% for the quarter, and was in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in February reached 85,2 which was in line with market expectations. The inflation rate in the Euro Zone in January reached 2,5%, while core inflation was standing at 2,7%. These were final inflation figures for January and there was no difference from market expectations. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in March reached -24,7 which was a bit higher from forecasted -21,4. The Retail Sales in Germany increased by 0,2% in January, leading to an increase of 2,9% on a yearly basis. The unemployment rate in Germany in January was standing without change from the previous month at 6,2%. The preliminary inflation rate for February in Germany was 0,4%, leading to a yearly rate of 2,3%. Both figures were in line with market forecasts. Previous week was challenging for financial markets, with a major correction dragging the value of assets toward the downside. US Treasury yields also reacted to the news on potential tariffs. The price of the US Dollar was also under general market sentiment influence, so it was a bit of a mixed trading week. The eurusd currency pair started the week by testing the 1,5 resistance line, reaching the highest weekly level at 1,052. However, the week-end brought some correction toward the downside, so the currency pair ended the trading week at the level of 1,037. The RSI reached its highest level at 59, but ended the week around the level of 45. Moving average of 50 days stopped with divergence from MA200, but the convergence did not start yet, hence, the potential cross is still far away. Markets will use the week ahead to digest all the data from the previous week, especially about trade tariffs, and find a new equilibrium. It should be considered that the Non-farm Payrolls will be released during the week ahead, which might bring back some volatility. As per current charts, some potential levels for the week ahead for eurusd currency pair would be between levels 1,04 and 1,05. Currently charts are more bullish than bearish for eurusd. Still, just in case that the currency pair clearly breaks the current 1,036 level, then the next stop might be at 1,028. However this scenario has a lower probability of occurrence. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Inflation rate flash for February in the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in February, HCOB Composite PMI final for February for both Germany and the Euro Zone, ECB Interest Rate Decision on March 6th, ECB Press conference after the ECM meeting, USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for February, ISM Services PMI for February, Non-farm Payrolls for February, Unemployment rate for February, Fed Chair Powell speech on March 7th.
by XBTFX
Gold: short term correctionThe uncertainty is the one which brought almost all asset classes to the down side during the previous week. The price of gold was also the one that was hit by geopolitical uncertainty, trade tariffs and expectations on interest rate levels. The price of gold entered into a short term correction, when only on Friday’s trading session gold was down by 1%, ending the week at the level of $2.858. The lowest weekly level was at $2.835. The RSI moved from strongly overbought territory, down to the level of 49. The market is still on hold when it comes to the move toward the oversold market side. At the same time, there has been no change with moving average lines. Both MA50 and MA200 are moving as two parallel lines with an uptrend, in which sense; there is no indication of a potential change in the trend. For some time now, the price of gold has been moving within the uncharted territory. Charts are pointing that the first support line is at the level $2.790. Whether the price of gold will make a correction up to this level, could not be noted with a higher probability. For the moment, the $2.830 level was the one which implied a stronger pull-back to the higher ground, which occurred on Friday. In the future period, it would be clearer whether this level represents a new support line. At this moment there is no historical data, which could support this assumption. Some reversals toward the upside are quite possible during the week ahead, considering that the markets need some time to digest current information related to geopolitics, trade tariffs and interest rate levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
Gold Move to fresh multi-week lows below $2,840Gold stays under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level in three weeks below $2,840. Gold (XAU/USD) reversed its direction after touching a new record high on Monday and snapped an eight-week winning streak. The near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup of bearish momentum as markets keep a close eye on headlines surrounding the United States (US) President Donald Trump administration’s trade policy ahead of Friday’s highly-anticipated US employment report.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Sanna_Kamilah
RUNE BUY as an option to win bigThe Rune and the Thorchain have good economics behind the project. The Validators get nice compensation for their work. All the team needs to do is: 1. Make sure that the network is safe 2. Borrow long-term money to cover the financial hole 3. Enjoy the business Now, the price is at the lowest level since the introduction of the Rune. It is a good opportunity to take a position and enjoy the flight. The Rune is going to be $4 pretty soon if the above 3 conditions are met
by Jekan
XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market Robbery Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🚀 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (4.070) swing Trade Basis Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: Primary Target - 3.680 (or) Escape Before the Target Secondary Target - 3.450 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Sentimental Outlook, Positioning Analysis: XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend for short term period (Bullish in future)., driven by several key factors. 💨⛽Fundamental Analysis Supply and Demand: Natural gas demand is expected to increase due to the ongoing winter season in the Northern Hemisphere. Production: US natural gas production is expected to remain steady, with a slight increase in production from the Marcellus shale region. Weather: Colder-than-expected weather in the US and Europe is expected to drive up natural gas demand. 💨⛽Macro Economics Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, keeping interest rates at 5.25% to combat inflation. GDP Growth: The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.0% in 2025, due to the ongoing economic uncertainty. Global Trade: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are expected to have a minimal impact on the natural gas market. 💨⛽COT Data Speculators (Non-Commercials): 35,019 long positions and 20,015 short positions. Hedgers (Commercials): 20,011 long positions and 30,019 short positions. Asset Managers: 25,015 long positions and 15,019 short positions. 💨⛽Market Sentiment Analysis The overall sentiment for XNG/USD is bullish, with a mix of positive and neutral predictions. 60% of client accounts are long on this market, indicating a bullish sentiment. 💨⛽Positioning Analysis The long/short ratio for XNG/USD is currently 1.75. The open interest for XNG/USD is approximately 1.2 million contracts. 💨⛽Inventory and Storage Analysis US Natural Gas Storage: The US natural gas storage level is currently at 1.8 trillion cubic feet, which is 10% below the 5-year average. Inventory Levels: Inventory levels are expected to decline further due to the ongoing cold weather and increased demand. 💨⛽Additional Tools and Resources Weather Forecasts: Colder-than-expected weather in the US and Europe is expected to drive up natural gas demand. Production Data: US natural gas production is expected to remain steady, with a slight increase in production from the Marcellus shale region. 💨⛽Next Trend Move Bullish Prediction: Some analysts predict a potential bullish move, targeting $4.20 and $4.50, due to the ongoing cold weather and increased demand. Bearish Prediction: Others predict a potential bearish move, targeting $3.50 and $3.20, due to the expected decline in natural gas demand after the winter season. 💨⛽Future Prediction Short-Term: Bullish: $4.00-$4.20, Bearish: $3.60-$3.40 Medium-Term: Bullish: $4.50-$4.80, Bearish: $3.20-$2.80 Long-Term: Bullish: $5.00-$5.50, Bearish: $2.50-$2.00 💨⛽Overall Summary Outlook The overall outlook for XNG/USD is bullish, with a mix of positive and neutral predictions. The market is expected to experience a moderate increase, with some analysts predicting a potential bullish move targeting $4.20 and $4.50. Real-Time Market Feed As of the current time, XNG/USD is trading at $3.90, with a 1.0% increase in the last 24 hours. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FPMARKETS:XNGUSD
by Thief_Trader
4
THE PLAN WORK PERFECTLYAs the post at Feb 3 said, the market has a big potential to go down, or, you can say, CLEAR BEAR and it does happen. The reason behind this is simple: TOTAL MARKET EQUITY has been dropping massively since then. Why? Instutional play, they are focusing on accumulating BTC. Yes, that shii including selling it too . . . Future Forecast Based on the current condition, we might see a move around 660 Bill. Am I positive about it? Nah, but we will see what happens. BTC has a strong demand at 78K and it shows a strong pullback. Yes, institutional keeps accumulating. Again, another BUT, the biggest area of interest for BTC is 73-67K. Trade responsibly, take care XCO
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by Eirxco
CAD/JPY: Diverging Fundamentals Signal More DownsideFundamental Analysis: • The Non-Weighted Currency Index of the JPY has just broken out of a triangle to the upside, indicating JPY strength at the moment. • Japan’s 10-year bonds have been in an uptrend for months and have just rejected the 50% Fibonacci level to the upside. • The BoJ remains one of the most hawkish central banks, and Japan’s economy continues to show strength, marked by rising inflation since November 2024. • Meanwhile, the Non-Weighted Currency Index of the CAD has been in a downtrend for a long time, signaling CAD weakness against other currencies. • Canada’s 10-year bonds are currently range-bound, but the structure resembles a bearish flag, suggesting a possible breakdown below support. • The Canadian economy is stagnating, and while unemployment has decreased compared to the previous month, it remains relatively high. • Canadian inflation is slightly below the BoC’s target, which suggests that after their recent 25 bps rate cut, they may cut rates further to boost inflation back to 2%, stimulate the labor market, and increase GDP growth. • Additionally, the downtrend in oil prices does not support CAD appreciation. Technical Analysis: • On the Weekly timeframe, we observe an ascending triangle that has just broken to the downside. • On the Daily timeframe, sellers failed to push the price down significantly, indicating weak momentum on the breakout. This suggests a pullback/retest towards the trendline or Fibonacci levels is likely. • The 50 SMA on the Daily chart is acting as strong resistance. • The 200 SMA has also been rejected on the Daily timeframe. • On the 4H timeframe, price is indeed retracing towards the trendline and/or Fibonacci levels. • COT Report aligns with my bias. • 82% of retail traders are positioned on the opposite side (buying).
Short
by Marco-kh
Gold Price Analysis February 28⭐️Fundamental Analysis This week, the US Dollar (USD) continued to recover on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep its monetary policy tight as inflation remains high. This caused money to flow out of gold - a non-yielding asset. In addition, gold prices fell as investors adjusted their positions ahead of the US release of important inflation data, a factor that could affect the Fed's interest rate decision and the short-term direction of gold. However, concerns about former US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and risk-off sentiment could help gold hold its price. In addition, falling US Treasury yields also contributed to limiting gold's decline ⭐️Technical Analysis After closing yesterday's candle, gold confirmed a clear downtrend. The SELL zone that is being watched by investors today is around 2889. Any price increase today is considered a great opportunity to sell. 2840 is considered as the support zone today. The wider price range is being watched when there are signs of Break out from the narrow range at 2920 and 2806. Currently, gold needs to break through 2870 to reach the upper range and if it fails to break 2870, we can set SELL signals at 2840 today.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
ETHUSDT analyse for 2025-2026Ethereum is on its way to hell. They sold you an illusion - promises of 10K, 15K and beyond but reality is setting in. When I did my first analyse on this chart she was around 3.4K. now it's already at 2K and there's more blood ahead. I truly believe the next year or max 2 will be brutal with ETH easily breaking below 1K and even deeper into the targets on my chart. The hype is fading, and the market is waking up. Stay sharp. The real pain hasn"t even started yet.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by NuriGG
BTCUSD 1HOUR CHART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEXT MOVE POSSIBLE This is a Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price chart on a 1-hour timeframe from TradingView, published by the user "afzalforex110." Here’s what it indicates: 1. Support & Resistance Levels: A resistance level is marked at 93,375, which could act as a target if the price rises. A support level is drawn at 84,120, which is crucial for determining price reactions. 2. Buy Zone: The pink-shaded "BUY ZOON" (likely meant as "BUY ZONE") is located around the $78,000 - $80,000 range. This suggests that the trader expects strong buying interest in this area. 3. Potential Price Movement (Blue Arrows): If the price retraces to the 84,120 support and holds, it could push higher. A potential breakout above 85,892 may trigger further upside. If the price drops below 84,120, a deeper pullback towards the buy zone is expected before a possible rebound. Trading Strategy Implication: Bullish Bias: The trader anticipates a potential move up if key support levels hold. Entry & Exit Points: Traders might consider buying near support or in the buy zone and targeting higher resistance levels. Risk Management: A break below the buy zone could invalidate the bullish outlook. Would you like any refinements or additional insights?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by afzalforex110
GBP/USD Kicking Off March 2025 and Ending Q1Monthly View: The February monthly candle closed bullish, remaining within the Buy Side Imbalance (BISI) formed in November, which is still being respected. Liquidity was swept in January, indicating that price is still being magnetized towards the imbalance and the level of 1.2800. I anticipate that price might trade below the monthly close before making an upward move. Weekly View: The weekly candle closed bearish and tapped into a weekly BISI at 1.2560, where a reaction could occur. My main focus is on the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 1.2550, which could act as the final support before targeting 1.2700 and possibly higher. Note that after recent meetings, the dollar strengthened, causing price to drop and leaving behind a daily sell-side inefficiency. I would like to see price fill this inefficiency before taking out liquidity at 1.2550 and 1.2800. Daily View: The daily FVG at 1.2550 is crucial and could be the final support level before targeting 1.2700 and potentially higher. 4-Hour View: There is a bearish FVG and liquidity at 1.2645, which might influence price movements. 1-Hour View: The 1-hour chart is heavily bearish and currently in a Sell Side Imbalance (SISI) that might drive the price lower at the open. I expect price to potentially take out 1.2550 and find support at 1.2530 before heading upwards. Keep an eye on upcoming news this week including nfp Key Levels to Watch: 1.2800 (monthly target) 1.2560 (weekly BISI) 1.2550 (daily FVG and potential support) 1.2645 (4-hour bearish FVG and liquidity) 1.2550 and 1.2530 (1-hour support levels)
Long
by hskarue