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Fundamental Analysis

JPY/USD – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish Trading Setup1. Market Structure & Technical Pattern: The Japanese Yen (JPY) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been exhibiting a clear Rising Wedge Pattern over the past few months. This is a classic bearish reversal pattern, indicating that buying momentum is gradually weakening, and a strong decline is likely to follow. Formation of the Rising Wedge: The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, confined within two converging trendlines (black lines). The lower boundary (support trendline) has been consistently acting as a dynamic support level. The upper boundary (resistance trendline) has been limiting further upward movement, indicating exhaustion of buying pressure. Breakout Confirmation: The price action tested the resistance zone multiple times but failed to sustain bullish momentum. A strong rejection from the upper resistance level led to a sharp sell-off, causing a breakdown of the support trendline. Once the price broke below the wedge, selling pressure intensified, confirming the trend reversal. 2. Key Technical Levels & Zones: Resistance Level (0.006895): The price previously struggled to break above this resistance zone, forming a strong supply area where sellers dominated. This level aligns with the upper boundary of the rising wedge, making it a significant turning point. The rejection from this zone initiated the bearish breakdown. Support Level (Broken – 0.006650): This level acted as a strong demand zone, preventing further downside movement during the wedge formation. However, once the price broke below this level, it confirmed the end of the uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. This level may now act as a new resistance (role reversal principle). Stop Loss Placement (Above 0.006895): A logical stop-loss is placed just above the resistance level to protect against a potential invalidation of the bearish setup. If the price closes above this level, the bearish thesis would be invalidated. 3. Trading Execution & Risk Management: Sell Entry Strategy: Traders looking for short positions should enter after a confirmed break below the wedge’s support. A potential pullback (retest) to the broken trendline could offer an additional shorting opportunity. The retest would confirm the previous support turning into resistance before a continuation of the downtrend. Take Profit Targets (TP1 & TP2): TP1 (0.006481): This level represents a strong demand zone where short-term buyers may step in. Traders may choose to book partial profits here. TP2 (0.006251): This is a deeper support level and the final target for this trade setup. If the price sustains bearish momentum, it is likely to reach this level before stabilizing. Risk-to-Reward Ratio Consideration: This setup offers a high probability short trade with an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. The stop-loss is well-defined, minimizing potential losses while maximizing profit potential. 4. Expected Price Movement & Projection: Short-term Outlook: A possible pullback to the broken wedge (previous support now acting as resistance) before continuation lower. If the price retests and rejects the 0.006650 level, expect acceleration in the downtrend. Medium-term Outlook: If the price reaches TP1 (0.006481) and breaks below, it increases the probability of hitting TP2 (0.006251). A bearish trend continuation could form, potentially leading to further downside levels. Invalidation Scenario: If the price closes above the stop-loss level (0.006895), the bearish setup is invalidated, and a bullish breakout could follow instead. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan: The rising wedge breakdown signals a shift from bullish to bearish market sentiment. Traders should look for short entries after a confirmed breakdown or wait for a pullback before executing trades. The risk-to-reward ratio makes this a strong high-probability trade setup. Following the plan with strict stop-loss placement ensures risk is controlled while maximizing profit potential. 6. Summary & Key Takeaways: ✅ Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal) ✅ Breakout Direction: Downside ✅ Resistance Level: 0.006895 ✅ Support Levels: 0.006650 (broken), 0.006481 (TP1), 0.006251 (TP2) ✅ Stop-Loss Placement: Above 0.006895 ✅ Profit Targets: TP1 – 0.006481, TP2 – 0.006251 ✅ Trade Bias: Bearish
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
Bullish Divergence and the Impact of Trump’s TariffsOn the daily chart of the S&P 500, I’m currently spotting a clear bullish divergence. This type of divergence is a technical pattern that suggests that, despite recent price drops, the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential upward move could be on the horizon. It shows that the index has underlying strength, which the price hasn’t fully reflected yet — making a bullish reversal very likely in the short to mid-term. In this context, the recent drop in the S&P 500 has been largely driven by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, especially targeting China and other countries. However, based on my analysis, I believe that these tariffs were more of a negotiation tactic than a long-term economic strategy. And now that things are clearly not going as expected, I’m convinced that Trump will be forced to scale back the tariffs or start accepting less favorable trade agreements just to stop the bleeding — because I highly doubt he will allow this sharp market decline to continue unchecked. Why tariffs aren’t coherent or beneficial for the global economy Tariffs are additional taxes on imports. Although they’re often marketed as a way to protect local industries, in reality, they increase prices for consumers and destabilize global supply chains. The result is damaging for both the countries imposing the tariffs and those receiving them. In the case of the U.S., despite Trump’s promises, these tariffs are actually hurting American companies that rely on imported materials and products, leading to higher internal costs and squeezing consumers. Worse yet, this ongoing trade war has created a climate of global economic uncertainty, which is driving down investment and confidence. That uncertainty has translated into market selloffs around the world, and the S&P 500’s current decline is a direct reflection of that. Importantly, it’s U.S. businesses — not foreign governments — who are absorbing the cost of these tariffs. What to expect going forward Despite the pressure from tariffs, I believe that Trump — seeing the damage already being done to the markets — will have no choice but to start dialing things back. My take is that to avoid a deeper economic hit and restore investor confidence, the U.S. will likely pursue more balanced deals, even if it means compromising a bit. If this scenario plays out, I expect the S&P 500 to begin recovering, especially as investor uncertainty fades. The bullish divergence on the chart further reinforces the idea that once these external political and economic pressures ease, the market could see a strong and sharp rebound. Conclusion Trump’s tariffs were intended as leverage — but they’re clearly backfiring and doing more harm than good. The current S&P 500 correction, in my opinion, is actually a buying opportunity for those with a long-term view. With potential tariff reductions and fairer trade deals on the horizon, the market is likely to rebound strongly, especially with the bullish divergence we’re seeing on the charts. Markets may have already priced in the worst, and now we’re seeing the first technical signals of a potential turnaround. If confirmed, the price could begin to rally significantly in the coming days or weeks.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EmmanuelCova
1
Is this the perfect time to buy Bitcoin? Hello, While the significant market correction since January 2025 has left many feeling fearful, we believe this presents a perfect opportunity for those with a long-term investment horizon. The recent pullback in asset prices, particularly in the cryptocurrency space and equities, has created an attractive entry point for seasoned investors. President Trump's ongoing commitment to positioning the United States as the global capital for cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin as a key component of the nation's reserves, reinforces the enduring fundamental strength of this digital asset. Despite the short-term volatility, Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain robust, supported by this high-level governmental endorsement . Since its peak in January, Bitcoin has experienced a correction exceeding 25%, bringing it to levels that we view as an ideal accumulation zone. Our technical analysis further confirms this perspective, as the cryptocurrency approaches a critical upward trendline, suggesting that buyers may soon step in to drive a resurgence. Additionally, the MACD indicator is on the cusp of a bullish zero crossover, providing additional confirmation of an impending rebound. For patient, forward-thinking investors, we strongly recommend initiating or increasing Bitcoin positions at these current prices. By adopting a disciplined, long-term approach and weathering the near-term fluctuations, you can position yourself to capitalize on the substantial upside potential as Bitcoin's trajectory aligns with the supportive stance of the U.S. government. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:BTCUSDLong
by thesharkke
USDJPY Buying SetupUSDJPY is currently sitting in a key support zone, signaling a potential bullish momentum build-up. This bias is supported by the formation of a strong bullish candle at the level, suggesting buyers are stepping in. Importantly, price has respected structure—no lower low (LL) was formed. Instead, we’ve got a clean higher low (HL), which aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation scenario. Take-profits (TPs) and stop-loss (SL) levels are chosen with precision, keeping recent market structure and volatility in mind. As always, proper risk management is crucial for capital protection. Regards Sherry
Long
by Trade_With_Sherry
GBPUSD(20250404)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Countermeasures from many countries against the United States - ① It is reported that Europe will slow down the pace of tariff retaliation; EU member states will vote on countermeasures against US steel and aluminum tariffs on April 9; ② ​​Macron said that the response to US tariffs will be larger than before, and called on French companies to suspend investment in the United States. France may plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on large US technology companies. ③ Canadian Prime Minister Carney: Canada will impose a 25% tariff on all cars imported from the United States that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3092 Support and resistance levels 1.3325 1.3238 1.3181 1.3003 1.2946 1.2859 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3181, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3238 If the price breaks through 1.3092, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3003
Long
by BraveTigercat
Gold Analysis March 4Fundamental Analysis Persistent concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs could act as a catalyst for the safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, risk-off sentiment, coupled with expectations that a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle early, has caused a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. This, in turn, has pushed the US dollar (USD) to its lowest level since October 2024 and helped limit the downside in non-yielding gold. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a sharp sell-off to confirm that XAU/USD has topped out. Technical Analysis Today’s trading range is likely to see a fairly high probability of a drop. If it breaks 3116, gold will find its way back to 3081. In case gold breaks the downward structure as analyzed in the upward direction, pay attention to the SELL zone around 3148-3150. Wishing everyone a successful trading day.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold retreats but remains supported by macro tailwindsXAUUSD pared recent gains following a retreat below the channel's upper bound and resistance at 3150. The price remains in an uptrend, holding above the Ichimoku Cloud and within the ascending channel. However, should the price experience a retracement, a throwback to the 3050 support may occur. Conversely, regaining its bullish momentum and closing above 3150 could prompt a further rise to the following resistance at 3220. Gold pulled back sharply from record highs after Trump's tariffs excluded precious metals, easing immediate supply concerns, but the broader backdrop remains favorable. Central bank buying, expectations of rate cuts, and persistent geopolitical risks underpin demand, even as short-term profit-taking kicks in. While volatility may persist, the metal's role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty keeps its long-term bullish case intact. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by lixing_gan
BTC Monthly OutlookStrong support confirmed above $80–82K. Market structure points to $95K next — but don’t ignore what happens after. Analysis: 🔹 Holding above $80–82K = major support (50% monthly FVG + yearly VAH) 🔹 Next upside magnet: $95K — likely first-touch rejection 🔹 Break and hold above $100K = bullish breakout, invalidating bear scenarios 🔹 Rejection at $95K → potential drop to $60–68K zone (monthly demand) 📌 Plan: April/May rally toward $95K? Possible Watch reaction at $95–100K — key zone If we break $100K with conviction: add to longs If rejected: prepare for downside, not panic — risk management > bias 💡 This isn’t bearish. It’s scenario planning.
by Goldfinch_song
Buy Bitcoin📈 BTC/USD – Liquidity Recovered, Price Reacting This chart shows BTC (candles) vs. M2 Global Liquidity (yellow, 77-day delay). M2 dropped ~4% in late 2024, then fully recovered that drop in early 2025. BTC is now reacting to that move with a delay of ~77 days, showing strength off ~$80K support. If M2 breaks out from here, BTC could trend toward $90K–100K, possibly ATH by mid-June. To hold above $80K, M2 likely needs ~4–6% YoY growth or clear upward momentum. If M2 double-tops, BTC may peak within 60–77 days. Liquidity leads, Bitcoin follows — and M2 just reclaimed 4%.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by rossjohnson47
Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Odds to 35% Amid Tariff Fears Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has lowered its S&P 500 year-end target again. The firm now sees the index ending at 5,700 points, down from its earlier forecast of 6,200. This revision comes just days before President Trump’s new round of tariffs is set to begin. The updated target implies only a 2% gain from Friday’s close of approximately 5,597. Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin pointed to rising tariffs and slowing economic growth as key concerns. The revised forecast reflects a cautious outlook in light of economic risks. This is the second time Goldman has slashed its target this month. At the same time, Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month recession probability to 35%, up from a previous 20%. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius explained that higher tariffs and softening economic data contributed to the decision. Goldman now estimates the average U.S. tariff rate will rise to 15% in 2025, compared to an earlier projection of 10%. Alongside these changes, the bank has cut its Q4 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.5%. The adjustment follows weakening household and business confidence. Recent White House comments also suggest officials may accept short-term economic strain to pursue long-term trade objectives. These developments reflect growing concern across Wall Street. Goldman’s 5,700 target ranks among the lowest of major forecasts. With markets already on edge, the new projection underscores broader fears over trade tensions and economic resilience. Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Below $500 The S&P 500 has turned bearish after falling below a key support at $510. This level had held firm previously but now acts as resistance. The break and close below the key level signals strong bearish pressure and there is a possibility of more bearish momentum. Price is currently trending lower towards the next potential support at $440. If it breaks below it, further drop could follow. The bearish pressure may continue unless the bulls defend the key support level. However, if the bulls can finally defend the $440 level, it could potentially recover and target $510. In that case, the first resistance to overcome is $510. If it is also broken above, the next target would be the $592 resistance zone. A break above $592 could revive bullish momentum. As of April 4th 2025, Goldman Sachs stock closed at $21.74, down 1.50% on the day. Investors await further updates ahead of the earnings report due April 14th 2025.
NYSE:GSShort
by DEXWireNews
Trump & Dump PatternHello friends. $Trump is heavily manipulated by Donald Trump, like recently when he mentioned the coin and pumped it up on that. He has lots of coins that he wants to distribute. Since he controls the country and the narrative, this is very easy to do. All he needs is to find people willing to buy the coins by releasing some big news. As you can see on the chart, it currently looks like an accumulation area with a clear level of liquidity to sweep through at $12.45 before crashing. Did you notice how crypto didn't plunge along with the equity market on Friday? It was a huge break in the correlation and it shows that some serious manipulation is going on for this entire market. My expectation is that this weekend there will be some massive news such as that Trump has used the government to purchase Bitcoins or a similar headline. Onchain data shows that smart money has been accumulating millions of dollars worth of Trump here over the past 2 days and the price is already starting to rise from the lows. They definitely know something. Think about the timing of a final exit pump across the board for cryptos right into this plunge on equities. It makes perfect sense to sweep liquidity at $95,000 in that market as well and give everyone one last chance to sell their coins before Bitcoin plunges to $50,000.
Long
by bowtrix
Perfect ending, gold trend analysis and layout for next weekEarly layout plan for gold: 3.31-4.4 Reviewing this week, a total of 20 layouts were arranged, and the overall harvest was 1245pips! This week can be called a super week. After the tariff fundamentals were implemented, the market started the callback mode, and there was a big sweep in the middle. It is unrealistic to say that we can win all the games. The number of mistakes we made this week has also increased. This is normal, but our eye-catching operations are even more dazzling, and we have gained more. Overall, I am quite satisfied. I will continue to work hard next week. Analysis of gold market trends next Monday: Technical analysis of gold: The gold market on Thursday and Friday this week can be described as thrilling, with a rise and fall of more than 100 points in two days! The gold market suddenly changed, and there was an extremely violent sweep. First, it rose rapidly to 3136 without any signs, and then fell back quickly at lightning speed, and fell below the intraday low. After a series of big negative declines, the current short-term trend of gold is bearish. The daily line has a big negative downward trend, breaking the short-term moving average and piercing the middle track, leaving a lower shadow below. The pattern shows a bearish signal of Yin engulfing Yang. In the short term, it may rely on the support of the middle track to confirm the 10ma resistance and fall again. The 4-hour Bollinger band opens and extends downward. The K-line continues to decline, and the trend is bearish and downward. The callback space is larger than the rising space. Falling below the previous day's starting low of 3054 is a short-term empty point, and the lowest retracement is around 3015. The daily line is in a partial adjustment in the short term. Combined with the falling wave space of the 4-hour chart. The 3000 integer mark is the support position of the golden section point 0.5. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands open downward, and the K-line continues to decline. The downward trend is obvious. The focus below is on the break of the 3000 mark. As long as the 3000 mark is held, the short-term bullish structure will not change. The market will continue to rise to new highs. If the 3000 mark is broken, the market will form a large-level adjustment structure. The short-term operation is mainly to buy on dips above 3000, and to sell at high altitudes. The upper resistance is around 3054-3057-3072, and the lower support is 3015-3000. On the whole, the short-term operation of gold next Monday is mainly to buy on rebounds, and to buy on callbacks. The upper short-term focus is on the 3054-3057 resistance line, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3000-3015 support line. Friends must keep up with the rhythm. It is necessary to control the position and stop loss, set the stop loss strictly, and do not resist the single operation. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday trading. Welcome to experience and exchange real-time market information ☎️, enter ✈️✈️ to follow real-time orders. Reference for gold operation strategies on Monday: Short order strategy: Strategy 1: Short gold rebounds near 3045-3055, stop loss 10 points, target near 3030-3015, break to see 3000 line. Long order strategy: Strategy 2: Long gold pullback near 3015-3005, stop loss 10 points, target near 3030-3040, break to see 3050 line.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel