Get started

Fundamental Analysis

Warning: what can save us from a collapse: must read.⚠️This analysis isn’t purely chart-based, but in this macro environment, understanding the bigger picture is essential for predicting market movements. Hopefully, TradingView will allow this idea so that everyone can read it. What Can Save Us? Before looking for a solution, we must first acknowledge the problem—and then determine if and when a resolution is coming. 1. Trump’s Tariffs & Policies: A Market Shock Trump’s economic strategy marks a radical departure from the policies of the past 30 years. However, previous administrations weakened U.S. global influence, shifting power in favor of China. Since Trump's motto is "Make America Great Again", serious changes are inevitable. Until investors fully grasp these policies, uncertainty will persist. Let’s break down the key areas of impact and Trump’s expected responses: 2.Monetary Policy & The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve (FED) and Jerome Powell are not aligned with the White House. Powell is sticking to his monetary policy approach, but Trump needs 0% interest rates to implement his vision. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is fueling volatility. 🔴 Trump's Response: Expect a bombshell move—Trump will fire Jerome Powell and replace him with a Fed chairman who supports rate cuts to 0%. This will cause short-term chaos but ultimately fuel a massive market rally as: ✔️ The housing market recovers ✔️ Liquidity surges ✔️ Stocks skyrocket 3.U.S. Dependence on China & Russia for Raw Materials The U.S. imports essential resources from China and Russia, making it vulnerable. The BRICS alliance is strengthening, further threatening U.S. dominance. 🔴 Trump's Response: Trump has openly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its rich natural resources. He will take it by military force if necessary, positioning the U.S. as a raw material powerhouse on par with Russia. 4.Lost Allies: Canada, Mexico & South America Canada is aligning with Europe Mexico & South America are leaning towards BRICS 🔴 Trump's Response: To counter this: Canada will be pressured into rejoining a U.S.-led trade bloc—or face potential annexation. South American economies will be crippled by tariffs, forcing them to reintegrate under U.S. influence. 5.Geopolitical Conflicts: Middle East & Ukraine Iran is aligned with Russia & China Ukraine relies on Europe (France, UK, EU), rather than the U.S. The U.S. is not benefiting from these wars 🔴 Trump's Response: If Zelensky continues to align with Europe, Trump may order a full-scale U.S. bombing of Ukraine, flatten Kyiv, eliminate Zelensky live on TikTok, and then split Ukraine with Russia. This move would: ✔️ Strengthen U.S.-Russia relations ✔️ Secure a deal on Greenland ✔️ Humble Europe 6.Conclusion: A Global Power Shift Expect a period of chaos and fear. However, what investors must understand is that Trump is 100% serious about these moves—and he will execute them regardless of global opinion. If Trump’s strategy works: ✅ The U.S. will regain dominance ✅ Markets will rally hard ✅ Confidence in the U.S. economy will be restored If Trump fails: 🚨 A prolonged economic downturn (15-20 years of stagflation) 🚨 U.S. & Europe suffer major losses 🚨 Best move? Relocate to Asia or the Middle East before the crash. So, even if Trump’s policies seem insane, the best-case scenario is that he succeeds. 💡 DYOR (Do Your Own Research) #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump #MAGA #Geopolitics #StockMarket #SPX500 #Trading #Investing #Economy #FederalReserve #RateCuts
FX:SPX500
by CryptoNikkoid
6
GBPUSD(20250404)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Countermeasures from many countries against the United States - ① It is reported that Europe will slow down the pace of tariff retaliation; EU member states will vote on countermeasures against US steel and aluminum tariffs on April 9; ② ​​Macron said that the response to US tariffs will be larger than before, and called on French companies to suspend investment in the United States. France may plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on large US technology companies. ③ Canadian Prime Minister Carney: Canada will impose a 25% tariff on all cars imported from the United States that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3092 Support and resistance levels 1.3325 1.3238 1.3181 1.3003 1.2946 1.2859 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3181, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3238 If the price breaks through 1.3092, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3003
Long
by BraveTigercat
GOLD Bullish Trend Continues After FVG Test🟢 GOLD is maintaining strong bullish momentum after successfully testing a Fair Value Gap (FVG). A Break of Structure (BOS) confirms the uptrend, with higher lows forming—a clear sign of continuation. 📊 Analysis: ✅ Bullish Trend: The price structure confirms an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. ✅ Fake Reversal Break of Structure (BOS): A key level has been broken, signaling reversal but based on current momentum that follows it shows Buyers continued strength. ✅ FVG Test Success: Price respected the Fair Value Gap, reinforcing buying pressure. ✅ 🎯 Target: , aligning with . ✅ 📈 Momentum: Strong upward drive suggests further gains ahead. 🔮 Potential Scenario: The price is likely to continue climbing, forming a new higher high toward the target level. 📢 Confirmation Signals to Watch: 📌 Volume: Increasing volume on bullish moves. 📌 Candlestick Patterns: Bullish signals at key support levels. 📌 Moving Averages: Price holding above critical moving averages. 📌 🚨 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research. 🔗 Tags: #GOLD #XAUUSD #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #FVG #BreakOfStructure #TrendAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketAnalysis
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Professor_Noah
Trade war impact on Nasdaq 100Trade wars are escalating, and this time the United States is in conflict with nearly every major economy. In this video, I explain why this shift could have a massive impact on global markets and what it means for traders right now. I walk through the historical parallels from 95 years ago, when similar tariffs deepened the Great Depression and led to an 80 percent drop in the Dow Jones. A decade later, World War II followed. While no one wants to see that repeated, economic tension is clearly building. We take a closer look at the Nasdaq 100, which is now trading below its 200-day moving average. I explain why the technical setup suggests further downside and how traders might look to short into rallies rather than chase the current move. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
THINKMARKETS:NAS100Short
by ThinkMarkets
Ford (NYSE:F) Drop 5%+ as Tariffs Threaten Auto Industry marginsFord Motor Company (NYSE: F) is facing a challenging market environment as its stock price fell 5.27% to $9.61 as of 3:24 PM EDT. This drop comes amid declining sales and the looming threat of new tariffs from the Trump administration. In the last 52 weeks, Ford's stock has traded within a range of $9.06 to $14.85. On Tuesday 1st April, Ford reported a 1.3% decline in total vehicle sales year-over-year, delivering 501,291 vehicles in Q1 2025. Despite this decline, retail sales rose by 5%, with a strong 19% surge in March, signaling that buyers may be accelerating purchases ahead of the impending tariffs. General Motors (GM) posted strong results with a 17% increase in sales, delivering 693,353 vehicles in Q1 2025. The company achieved double-digit growth across all its brands, marking its best first-quarter performance since 2018. While GM shares remained stable, Ford shares saw further declines. Tariffs Add Uncertainty for Automakers The auto industry is preparing for the impact of a 25% tariff on foreign cars and parts. The Trump administration confirmed on Wednesday that his 25% global car and truck tariffs would take effect as scheduled on Thursday and that duties on automotive parts imports will be launched on May 3rd. Although Ford manufactures most of its vehicles in the U.S, many essential parts are imported. Higher production costs could push car prices higher, affecting demand. Ford executives have stated they are assessing the impact of these tariffs on their business operations. Chairman William Clay Ford Jr. assured shareholders that the company is prepared to handle geopolitical uncertainties. Despite this, investor sentiment remains cautious, contributing to the recent stock price decline. Technical Analysis Ford’s stock has been trading within a narrow range of $9 to $10 in the last three months. A strong resistance level at $11, tested several times from August to November 2024, remains unbroken. Since failing to break the resistance level, the stock has since then declined. Currently, the price is testing a double support level at $9 comprising of a horizontal key support and a descending trendline. If this support holds, Ford’s stock may attempt another bull phase toward the $11 resistance level. On the other hand, a break below $9 could push the price lower, with the next potential support level at $8.45. The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages are positioned above the current Market price, at $9.74, $10.08 and $10.70 respectively. This indicates strong bearish pressure, limiting bullish momentum in the near term. Thoughts Moving Forward With tariffs and the auto industry facing supply chain disruptions, Ford’s stock is likely to remain under pressure. The bearish sentiment could persist in the short term, especially if the price breaks below the key $9 support level. If support holds, Ford could see a short-term bounce toward $11. However, sustained bullish momentum would require strong demand and improved market sentiment. This would be witnessed if its earnings report, set to be released between April 22nd and April 28th, 2025, is favorable. Until then, geopolitical and economic uncertainties weigh on the stock.
NYSE:FLong
by DEXWireNews
EUR/GBP Triangle Pattern - Bearish Breakdown SetupProfessional Analysis of the EUR/GBP Chart This EUR/GBP (Euro/British Pound) daily chart from OANDA, published on April 3, 2025, highlights a key technical setup based on price action analysis, chart patterns, and support/resistance levels. 1. Market Context: Accumulation & Transition to a Triangle Pattern Curve Zone Formation (Rounded Bottom): The market initially exhibited a rounded bottom structure (curve zone) from July 2024 to February 2025, indicating a gradual accumulation phase. This phase often signals a shift in market sentiment, where sellers lose dominance, and buyers start stepping in. Breakout from Accumulation: After reaching the support zone (~0.8250 - 0.8300), price rebounded sharply in March 2025, confirming strong buyer interest. However, it failed to sustain upward momentum near the resistance zone (~0.8470 - 0.8500), leading to consolidation. 2. Formation of a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Lower Highs & Higher Lows: Price action began forming a symmetrical triangle, a classic consolidation pattern that typically precedes a strong breakout. The market is currently trading near the apex of the triangle, indicating that a breakout is imminent. Potential Breakout Direction: Symmetrical triangles are neutral patterns, meaning they can break either upward or downward. However, the price structure and resistance rejection suggest a higher probability of a bearish breakdown. 3. Key Levels & Trading Setup Resistance & Support Zones: 🔴 Resistance Zone (~0.8470 - 0.8500): This area has repeatedly acted as strong resistance, where sellers have consistently pushed prices lower. A breakout above this zone would indicate a bullish invalidation of the current bearish bias. 🟢 Support Zone (~0.8250 - 0.8300): This level has held price multiple times, acting as key support. A break below this zone would confirm bearish momentum, targeting lower price levels. 4. Bearish Trade Setup 📉 Entry Strategy (Short Position): Wait for a confirmed breakout below the triangle’s lower trendline (~0.8320 - 0.8350). A retest of the broken support turning into resistance would provide the best short entry. 📌 Stop-Loss Placement (~0.84764): Positioned above recent highs and the resistance zone to minimize risk. This ensures the trade is protected against potential false breakouts. 🎯 Profit Target (~0.81190 - 0.81134): The projected move aligns with historical support levels, making it a logical target. This level represents a previous market structure where buyers stepped in. 5. Conclusion & Trade Considerations ✅ Bearish Bias: The price action and pattern suggest a higher probability of a downside breakout. ✅ Defined Risk & Reward: A well-structured stop-loss and target level ensures a solid risk management strategy. ✅ Watch for Confirmation: Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout before entering a trade to avoid false moves. 📊 Overall Verdict: A high-probability short setup is forming, with a clear entry, stop-loss, and take-profit strategy. If the market respects the triangle breakdown scenario, this could lead to a significant bearish move toward the 0.81190 target.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
EUR/USD Analysis Ascending Triangle Breakout – Bullish TargetOverview of the Chart: The chart represents the EUR/USD (Euro to U.S. Dollar) pair on a 1-hour timeframe, showcasing a bullish ascending triangle breakout. The pattern indicates an upward continuation in the trend after a period of consolidation. This analysis will break down the key elements of the chart, the technical structure, and the potential trading strategy. 1. Market Structure & Key Zones A. Market Curve Area (Early Trend Development) The price started with a strong bullish trend leading up to the formation of the triangle. The curved trendline suggests a gradual increase in buying pressure, indicating that the market was preparing for a larger breakout. B. Resistance and Support Levels Resistance Level (Red Arrow & Blue Box): This level acted as a price ceiling where sellers previously dominated. The market attempted multiple times to break this resistance before successfully breaching it. Support Level (Green Arrow & Yellow Zone): The price consistently found buyers at this level, reinforcing a higher low structure. The rising support line within the triangle indicated strong accumulation by buyers. 2. Chart Pattern: Ascending Triangle Formation The price action formed an ascending triangle, which is a well-known bullish continuation pattern. The higher lows (trendline support) indicated buyers were gaining control, gradually pushing the price toward the resistance. Eventually, the resistance was broken with strong bullish momentum, confirming a valid breakout. 3. Breakout Confirmation & Retest The breakout above the resistance level came with high volume, indicating strong market participation. After the breakout, a minor pullback (retest) occurred, confirming previous resistance as new support. The price surged upward after the retest, validating the bullish trade setup. 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management A. Entry Strategy A trader would enter a buy (long) position after confirming the breakout. Entry Trigger: Either at breakout (high-risk, early entry) Or after a successful retest (safer entry) B. Stop Loss Placement A stop loss is placed below the previous support level at 1.07276, ensuring risk is limited in case of a false breakout. C. Target Projection The target price is measured using the height of the triangle added to the breakout level. Based on this calculation, the projected target is around 1.12838. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan The EUR/USD pair has executed a clean ascending triangle breakout, signaling further bullish movement. The trading plan suggests: ✅ Entry: Buy after breakout confirmation or retest. ✅ Stop Loss: Placed below 1.07276 for risk management. ✅ Take Profit: Targeting 1.12838, based on the pattern’s height projection. This setup presents a high-probability long opportunity in a trending market, with proper risk management to protect against potential reversals.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 4, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD briefly broke above 1.32000 for the first time in six months on Thursday and climbed to fresh highs amid widespread weakness in the US Dollar. The Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs and flat tariffs knocked the legs out from under market sentiment, despite a delayed reaction to the tariff announcements that followed after US markets closed on Wednesday. A fairly quiet calendar of economic publications is expected in the UK this week. However, investor attention will be focused on Friday's release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This data could have a major impact on market sentiment as the US economy enters a post-tariff phase. The March employment report is predicted to be a marker of sorts for the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies. In addition, the ISM's US services business activity index (PMI) for March, released on Thursday, added to the negativity by falling to 50.8, its lowest level in nine months. The drop in the index was one of the fastest since the pandemic began. Weakening business activity and declining consumer optimism began before the tariffs went into effect, and are unlikely to normalize quickly anytime soon. President Donald Trump approved the imposition of a 10 percent duty on all imports starting April 5, and the counter tariffs took effect on April 9. Analysts at Fitch Ratings believe U.S. GDP growth will be lower than the March forecast, which had previously been adjusted downward. The agency also warned that the effect of the tariff policy may affect the decisions of the Federal Reserve: the Fed may suspend the easing of monetary policy while it assesses the impact of duties on inflation and labor indicators. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.30900, SL 1.30200, TP 1.32000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY Buying SetupUSDJPY is currently sitting in a key support zone, signaling a potential bullish momentum build-up. This bias is supported by the formation of a strong bullish candle at the level, suggesting buyers are stepping in. Importantly, price has respected structure—no lower low (LL) was formed. Instead, we’ve got a clean higher low (HL), which aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation scenario. Take-profits (TPs) and stop-loss (SL) levels are chosen with precision, keeping recent market structure and volatility in mind. As always, proper risk management is crucial for capital protection. Regards Sherry
Long
by Trade_With_Sherry
US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this. My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020. WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TVC:US30YShort
by RealMacro
4
Gold retreats but remains supported by macro tailwindsXAUUSD pared recent gains following a retreat below the channel's upper bound and resistance at 3150. The price remains in an uptrend, holding above the Ichimoku Cloud and within the ascending channel. However, should the price experience a retracement, a throwback to the 3050 support may occur. Conversely, regaining its bullish momentum and closing above 3150 could prompt a further rise to the following resistance at 3220. Gold pulled back sharply from record highs after Trump's tariffs excluded precious metals, easing immediate supply concerns, but the broader backdrop remains favorable. Central bank buying, expectations of rate cuts, and persistent geopolitical risks underpin demand, even as short-term profit-taking kicks in. While volatility may persist, the metal's role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty keeps its long-term bullish case intact. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by lixing_gan
Trade Idea : US30 Short ( MARKET )Technical Analysis Overview: 1. Daily Chart: • The index is in a clear downtrend, with price action breaking below the moving average. • MACD is deeply negative, with a bearish divergence and downward momentum. • RSI at 37.28, indicating approaching oversold territory, but not yet reversing. 2. 15-Minute Chart: • Strong downward momentum with sharp drop visible. • MACD is heavily negative, confirming bearish momentum. • RSI is at 32.71, indicating oversold conditions, but no clear sign of reversal yet. 3. 3-Minute Chart: • Sharp sell-off followed by consolidation. • MACD is negative but appears to be flattening, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or continued consolidation before the next move. • RSI at 44.38, showing mild recovery from previous lows but still below the midpoint (50). Trade Idea: • Position: Short (Sell) • Entry Level: 41,250 (near minor resistance or after a weak bullish retracement) • Stop Loss (SL): 41,800 (Above recent consolidation zone or resistance) • Take Profit (TP): 40,400 (Previous support area with good potential for price to test) FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Short
by KeN-WeNzEl
Amazon (NASDAQ: $AMZN) Drops 8% as Trump Tariffs Shake Markets. Amazon (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMZN ) is facing huge downward pressure following President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs. The stock dropped 9.26% in early trading, reaching $176.92 as of 11:01 AM EDT. These tariffs impact over 100 countries, including China, a key supplier for third-party merchants on Amazon’s platform. Rising import costs could push prices higher, affecting consumer spending and Amazon’s profit margins. Looking at the broader market, it is also struggling from the tariffs. The Magnificent Seven stocks, including Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, have all seen huge drops. Amazon’s 8% drop is among the largest, further highlighting its vulnerability to trade disruptions. If these tariffs persist, they could reignite inflation, weigh on economic growth and further impact stock prices. Amazon has faced major market shifts in the past. In 2022, its stock lost over 50% of its value within a few quarters. The question now is, can the current decline lead to similar losses? With Amazon trading at $242 in February, some fear it could drop below $120 if the economic outlook worsens. Adding to concerns, geopolitical risks remain high. The ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with uncertainty over future U.S policies, creates a volatile environment for stocks. Amazon’s reliance on global supply chains and consumer spending makes it highly sensitive to market shocks. Technical Analysis Looking at Amazon technically, there has been a downtrend since early February when it reached an all-time high and a 52-week high of $242. This peak came shortly after the presidential inauguration, but since then, the market conditions have not been favorable. The introduction of new tariffs has fueled bearish momentum, pushing Amazon lower toward key support levels. Currently, the stock is testing a double support level, an ascending trendline and a horizontal support around $180. If buyers step in at this level, a rebound could occur, targeting the previous $252 all-time high. However, given the economic uncertainty, there is a strong chance the stock may break below this current support. If the weekly candle closes strongly below the $180 level, the next critical point where the stock might find support is around $144. This area has historically provided strong buying interest and it may serve as a potential bottom if the decline continues. Looking at momentum indicators, the weekly RSI currently sits at 33, indicating strong bearish momentum. Despite the reading approaching the oversold reading, macroeconomic data shows the downtrend remains dominant and further losses could be ahead. What's the Outlook? Can Amazon Recover Soon? The coming weeks will be crucial for Amazon’s stock. With earnings expected between April 28th and May 2nd, market sentiment may shift based on revenue growth and profit margins. However, ongoing trade uncertainties and rising costs remain key risks. For now, monitor price action around the current market price of $180. A strong bullish move could confirm a short-term recovery. On the other side, a break below this double support level may signal a further drop towards $144 support level.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by DEXWireNews