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Fundamental Analysis

Is MSTR overvalued?Pros of Investing in MSTR Massive Bitcoin Reserves -Owns ~582,000 BTC (~2–3% of total supply), making it a levered proxy to Bitcoin. Any BTC rally strongly benefits MSTR. Aggressive Treasury Strategy -The company continuously issues equity, preferreds, and convertible bonds to buy more Bitcoin. This "flywheel" can compound Bitcoin exposure rapidly. Strong Momentum & Index Inclusion -Added to Nasdaq‑100, which boosts trading volumes and visibility. Momentum is supported by Bitcoin's surge. High Analyst Targets -Some bullish forecasts set ambitious targets—median around ~$550, with upside to $1,000+ if Bitcoin soars. Cons & Risks Extreme Volatility Tied to Bitcoin -MSTR isn’t a business stock—it’s highly leveraged to Bitcoin’s price moves, showing wild price swings. Leverage & Debt Repayment Risk -Reliance on convertible bonds and preferred stock introduces liquidity risk if BTC price falls, potentially triggering a “death spiral”. Accounting & Tax Exposure -New FASB rules may force MSTR to pay corporate alternative minimum tax on unrealized gains, potentially running into billions by 2026. Minimal Software Business -MSTR’s original BI software arm is now overshadowed by Bitcoin holdings. The market values it mainly as a crypto vehicle—not a tech company. High Valuation Premium -Market cap is ~2× its BTC holdings, a steep premium relying on perpetual BTC appreciation and investor sentiment. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by bossout10
3
Bitcoin Mid Term Game Plan - BTC PLANBitcoin just broke a key resistance level with strength. I expect a new all-time high soon, likely the summer top. Summer markets are usually weak for risk assets and strong for gold. Seasonality matters, keep that in mind. I expect risk markets to sell off until mid-July to early August. I’ll start buying once we break structure again. The plan: Wait for BTC to hit $110K Look for a reversal from that level Start aggressively shorting alts, beginning with ETH and memecoins Hold shorts until late July / early August Close positions and shift back to buying
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by UA_CAPITAL
Weather and Corn: Understanding the Precipitation Factor1. Introduction: Rain, Grain, and Market Chain Reactions In the world of agricultural commodities, few forces carry as much weight as weather — and when it comes to corn, precipitation is paramount. Unlike temperature, which can have nuanced and sometimes ambiguous effects depending on the growth stage, rainfall exerts a more direct and consistent influence on crop performance. For traders, understanding the role of rainfall in shaping market sentiment and price behavior isn't just an agricultural curiosity — it's a trading edge. This article unpacks the relationship between weekly rainfall levels and corn futures prices. By leveraging normalized weather data and historical returns from Corn Futures (ZC), we aim to translate weather signals into actionable market insights. Whether you're managing large agricultural positions or exploring micro futures like MZC, precipitation patterns can provide vital context for your trades. 2. Corn’s Moisture Dependency Corn is not just sensitive to water — it thrives or suffers because of it. From the moment seeds are planted, the crop enters a delicate dance with precipitation. Too little moisture during the early stages can impair root development. Too much during germination may lead to rot. And during pollination — particularly the tasseling and silking stages — insufficient rainfall can cause the plant to abort kernels, drastically reducing yield. On the other hand, excessive rainfall isn't necessarily beneficial either. Prolonged wet periods can saturate soil, hinder nutrient uptake, and encourage fungal diseases. Farmers in the U.S. Corn Belt — particularly in states like Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska — know this well. A single unexpected weather shift in these regions can send ripple effects across global markets, causing speculators to reassess their positions. For traders, these weather events aren’t just environmental footnotes — they are catalysts that influence prices, volatility, and risk sentiment. And while annual production is important, it's the week-to-week rhythm of the growing season where short-term trades are born. 3. Our Data-Driven Approach: Weekly Rainfall and Corn Returns To understand how rainfall impacts price, we collected and analyzed decades of historical weather and futures data, aligning weekly precipitation totals from major corn-growing regions with weekly returns from Corn Futures (ZC). The weather data was normalized using percentiles for each location and week of the year. We then assigned each weekly observation to one of three precipitation categories: Low rainfall (<25th percentile) Normal rainfall (25th–75th percentile) High rainfall (>75th percentile) We then calculated the weekly percent change in corn futures prices and matched each return to the rainfall category for that week. The result was a dataset that let us measure not just general trends but statistically significant shifts in market behavior based on weather. One key finding stood out: the difference in returns between low-rainfall and high-rainfall weeks was highly significant, with a p-value of approximately 0.0006. 4. What the Numbers Tell Us The results are striking. During low-rainfall weeks, corn futures often posted higher average returns, suggesting that the market responds to early signs of drought with anticipatory price rallies. Traders and institutions appear to adjust positions quickly when weather models hint at below-normal moisture during key growth stages. In contrast, high-rainfall weeks displayed lower returns on average — and greater variability. While rain is essential, excess moisture raises fears of waterlogging, planting delays, and quality issues at harvest. The futures market, ever forward-looking, seems to price in both optimism and concern depending on the volume of rain. Boxplots of these weekly returns reinforce the pattern: drier-than-usual weeks tend to tilt bullish, while wetter periods introduce uncertainty. For discretionary and algorithmic traders alike, this insight opens the door to strategies that incorporate weather forecasts into entry, exit, and risk models. 📊 Boxplot Chart: Weekly corn futures returns plotted against precipitation category (low, normal, high). This visual helps traders grasp how price behavior shifts under varying rainfall conditions. 5. Strategy: How Traders Can Position Themselves With the clear statistical link between rainfall extremes and price behavior in corn futures, the logical next step is applying this insight to real-world trading. One straightforward approach is to incorporate weather forecast models into your weekly market prep. If a key growing region is expected to receive below-normal rainfall, that could serve as a signal for a potential bullish bias in the upcoming trading sessions. This doesn’t mean blindly buying futures on dry weeks, but rather layering this data into a broader trading thesis. For example, traders could combine weather signals with volume surges, technical breakouts, or news sentiment to form confluence-based setups. On the risk management side, understanding how price behaves during extreme weather periods can inform smarter stop-loss placements, position sizing, or even the use of option strategies to protect against unexpected reversals. Additionally, this information becomes particularly valuable during the planting and pollination seasons, when the corn crop is most vulnerable and the market reacts most strongly. Knowing the historical patterns of price behavior in those weeks — and aligning them with current forecast data — offers a clear edge that fundamental and technical analysis alone may not reveal. 🗺️ Global Corn Map Screenshot: A world map highlighting major corn-growing regions with weather overlay. This helps illustrate the geographic variability in rainfall and how it intersects with key production zones. 6. Corn Futures Contracts: Speculating with Flexibility For traders looking to act on this kind of seasonal weather intelligence, CME Group provides two practical tools: the standard-size Corn Futures contract (ZC) and the Micro Corn Futures contract (MZC). Here are some quick key points to remember: Tick size for ZC is ¼ cent (0.0025) per bushel, equating to $12.50 per tick. For MZC, each tick is 0.0050 equating to $2.50 per tick. Standard ZC initial margin is approximately $1,000 and MZC margins are around $100 per contract, though this can vary by broker. Micro contracts are ideal for those who want exposure to corn prices without the capital intensity of full-size contracts. They’re especially helpful for weather-based trades, where your thesis may rely on shorter holding periods, rapid scaling, or position hedging. 7. Conclusion: Rain’s Role in the Corn Trade Precipitation isn’t just a farmer’s concern — it’s a trader’s opportunity. Our analysis shows that weather data, especially rainfall, has a statistically significant relationship with corn futures prices. By normalizing historical precipitation data and matching it to weekly returns, we uncovered a clear pattern: drought stress tends to lift prices, while excessive moisture creates volatility and downside risk. For futures traders, understanding this dynamic adds another layer to market analysis. As part of a broader series, this article is just one piece of a puzzle that spans multiple commodities and weather variables. Stay tuned for our upcoming releases, where we’ll continue exploring how nature’s forces shape the futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
Stablecoins will Supercharge Cryptos AdoptionCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ), #microfutures On June 5th, Circle Internet Group ( NYSE:CRCL ), issuer of the #USDC #stablecoin, debuted its initial public offering at $31 per share. By June 23rd, NYSE:CRCL prices peaked at $298.99, up nearly ten folds in just 13 trading days. At Friday's closing of $180.43, Circle has a market cap at $40.2 billion. Wall Street gave a mindboggling price earnings ratio of 234, based on Circle’s $0.77 earnings per share. How to Invest in Stablecoins Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that aim to maintain price stability. Both USDC and #USDT (issued by #Tether) peg their value to the US dollar. Paying $1 for 1 stablecoin, you will get exactly $1 back in one month, one year, or ten years. Unlike buying Bitcoin, there is no investment return for holding stablecoins. So why would anyone want them? Because stablecoins are not investment instruments, instead, they are payment methods. Like PayPal and Apple Pay, USDT and USDC enable users to move money fast and cheaply globally, but now in the crypto world. How do stablecoin issuers make money? They generate revenue through interest on reserves, transaction fees, lending, and partnerships with financial institutions. • The biggest source of revenue is interest income. When it comes to stablecoin issuers, size matters, and the Fed matters. • Based on a study by Artemis, Castle Island Ventures, and Dragonfly on May 29th, USDT and USDC have a combined market capitalization of over $214 billion. • With the Fed Funds rate averaging above 5% last year, the $214 billion reserve investing in Treasury and other high-quality bonds could yield at least $12 billion between Tether and Circle. • Tether reported 2024 profit of $13 billion, while Circle generated $1.68 billion last year. Investing in stablecoins means buying Circle stock, not converting cash into USDC. The difference is like buying Apple stock vs. adding money in your Apple Pay account. Headwinds and Tailwinds On June 17th, the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act of 2025. It establishes a regulatory framework for the $250 billion market for stablecoins. “Stablecoins are a paradigm-shifting development that can bring our payment system into the 21st century", declared Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, who introduced the bill. With regulatory certainty, real-world utility and adoption will quickly follow. The future for stablecoins is very bright, and I expect the market size to double soon. However, market leaders Tether and Circle both face strong headwinds going forward. • Real world utility brings in fierce competition. Big banks and credit card issuers will create their own stablecoins to keep customers on the book. This will slow down Tether’s and Circle’s efforts to attract mainstream financial investors. • I expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a lot during the remaining 3-1/2 years of the Trump Administration. Some cuts will happen under the current Fed Chair. A lot more will come by his successor beginning June 2026. Lowering interest rates by 100-200 basis points will cripple stablecoin issuers’ main income. In my opinion, the high dependency in growth and interest rate policies make NYSE:CRCL a very risky investment at the current lofty valuation. Bullish Signal for Bitcoin In the past, stablecoins were mainly used by crypto investors. Going forward, mainstream investors will find compelling offerings from their banks, stockbrokers and credit card companies. When mainstream financial intermediaries begin making serious inroad into cryptos, there will be a paradigm shift. In my opinion, the new development in stablecoins will supercharge the growth of crypto market size. Bitcoin, being well established as a Digital Gold, will benefit the most from the global asset reallocation to cryptocurrencies. An investor sharing a bullish view on bitcoin could explore the CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). Last Friday, the August MBT contract (BTCQ5) was settled at 108,640. Each contract has a notional value of 0.1 bitcoin, or a market value of $10,864. To buy or sell 1 contract, trader is required to post an initial margin of $2,598. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 4-to-1, which is more cost-effective that buying bitcoins from any ETF fund. A long MTC strategy with a stop-loss would enhance the returns while limiting the potential losses. Below is a hypothetical trade for illustration purposes only: On Day T+0, buy 1 BTCQ5 at 108,640 and set a stop loss at 105,000 • The portfolio value is 10,864 • Upfront margin is $2,598 Rising Bitcoin Scenario: On Day T+N, Bitcoin goes up 20% to $130,368 • Futures gain will be $2,172.8 (= (130368-108640) x 0.1) • Investment return will be +86.6% (= 2172.8 / 2598), excluding transaction fees • This compares to a 20% gain with bitcoin ETF, with no leverage Falling Bitcoin Scenario: On Day T+N, Bitcoin drops 20% to $86,912 • With a stop-loss at 105,000, losses will be capped at $364 (= (108640-105000) x 0.1) • Investment return will be -14% (= -364 / 2598) • This compares to a 20% loss with bitcoin ETF, with no stoploss provision Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
XAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly LowXAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly Low In mid-June 2025, demand for gold surged following reports of exchanged strikes between Israel and Iran, along with US bombings of Iran's nuclear facilities. As a so-called safe-haven asset, gold prices climbed towards $3,430. However, by the final day of June, the XAU/USD chart shows that gold had retreated to around $3,250, marking the lowest level in a month. Why Is the Gold Price Falling? On one hand, this reflects easing tensions in the Middle East, as a ceasefire—albeit fragile—between Israel and Iran remains in place. On the other hand, the risk of trade wars is also diminishing. According to media reports: → President Donald Trump announced last week that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China and hinted that a “very major” deal with India would follow soon. → The US is also close to concluding agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and many other countries are ongoing. Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart Looking at the broader picture, it is worth noting that gold prices in 2025 continue to move within a long-term upward channel (shown in blue), with the following key observations: → The channel’s median line acted as resistance (indicated by arrow 1); → The line dividing the lower half of the channel in half also showed signs of resistance (indicated by arrow 2). Now, gold is trading near the lower boundary of the channel – a key support level within the multi-month uptrend. Demand may begin to strengthen here, with long lower wicks on candles on the lower timeframes supporting this view. A rebound from the lower boundary is possible in early July, but how strong might it be? Note that bears have taken control of the $3,345 level (which has now flipped from support to resistance), and there are signs of a triple top pattern (A-B-C) forming near the $3,430 resistance. This raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the ascending channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
Who will win? Crypto or Dollar?How Stablecoin Payments Can Hurt Visa & Mastercard Bypassing the Interchange System -Stablecoins allow peer-to-peer or business-to-consumer payments without using credit/debit card rails. -Visa & Mastercard earn billions from interchange fees (0.1%–3% per transaction). If people pay directly via a stablecoin wallet (e.g. USDC, USDT), these fees vanish. Faster, Cheaper Cross-Border Payments -Traditional card transactions (especially international) can be slow and expensive. -Stablecoins on blockchains like Solana or Ethereum L2s allow near-instant settlement with near-zero fees, reducing the demand for VisaNet and Mastercard systems. Merchant Preference -Merchants often pay 1–3% in processing fees to card networks. -Accepting stablecoins directly = zero or minimal fees, increasing merchant pressure to move away from cards. Fintech Adoption -Companies like Stripe, PayPal, Shopify, and Square are integrating stablecoins. -If these platforms offer cheaper stablecoin settlement options, users and merchants may shift away from traditional card use. How Visa & Mastercard Could Defend or Adapt Partner with Stablecoin Networks -Both companies are already testing stablecoin payments: -Visa is piloting USDC settlements on Solana and Ethereum. -Mastercard partnered with Paxos and others to test blockchain-based settlements. These moves show they're not ignoring the shift, but trying to build rails for stablecoins too. Act as On-/Off-Ramps -They can remain dominant as the entry and exit point between fiat and crypto (e.g. buying crypto with cards, or topping up crypto wallets). -This maintains transaction volume even if some purchases happen in stablecoin. Expand to B2B and API Infrastructure -Visa and Mastercard are expanding into B2B transactions, open banking, and embedded finance APIs (e.g. Visa Direct, Mastercard Send). -This diversifies revenue beyond retail card swipes. Leverage Network Trust -Stablecoins may lack consumer protection (fraud protection, chargebacks). -Visa and Mastercard can market themselves as the trusted rails for consumers and businesses — especially in fraud-prone areas. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
NYSE:MAShort
by bossout10
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 30, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is attracting some sellers towards 143.85 during the Asian session on Monday. The U.S. dollar (USD) is weakening against the Japanese yen (JPY) amid rising bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut. The United States (US) and China are close to a deal on tariffs. However, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada, adding uncertainty to the market's positive outlook. In addition, traders are betting that the U.S. central bank will cut rates more frequently and possibly sooner than previously expected. Markets estimate the probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut at nearly 92.4%, up from 70% a week earlier. On the data side, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.3% in May, up from 2.2% in April (revised from 2.1%), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. This value matched market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% in May, following a 2.6% increase (revised from 2.5%) seen in April. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious stance on interest rate hikes could put pressure on the yen and create a tailwind for the pair. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.50, SL 144.30, TP 142.40
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
STEEL-NERVE SETUP – ARE WE RE-LIVING GOLD’S 2020 BEAR-TRAP?Retail sentiment is ultra-bearish, positioning is cooling, Silver is outperforming and the S&P 500 is screaming risk-on … exactly the cocktail we saw in June 2020, right before Gold & Silver exploded higher. 1️⃣ WHY THIS FEELS LIKE 2020 AGAIN 2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally) Read-through > 70 % of TradingView ideas are bearish 💬 > 60 % were bearish Crowd may be offsides again Managed-money net-longs -18 % from April peak 📉 -25 % from March peak Powder for fresh longs First monthly ETF outflow (-$1.8 bn) 🚪 Record inflows Capitulation, not euphoria Gold/Silver ratio down to 94 ⚖️ Fell to 95 Silver leadership = bottoming tell S&P 500 at new ATH 📈 S&P at new ATH Risk-on backdrop identical 2️⃣ WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % (2020: -1 %) → smaller monetary tail-wind. Gold already at inflation-adjusted ATH → upside could be shorter & sharper, not a fresh super-cycle (yet). 3️⃣ CHECKLIST FOR A REAL BEAR-TRAP Signal Watch-level Gold holds $3 200–3 250 (100-d SMA + fib) Daily close above zone Gold/Silver ratio breaks < 90 Momentum confirmation CFTC net-longs < 150 k Position flush ETF flows turn positive Fear → FOMO S&P stumbles / vols spike Classic risk-bid for Gold Need 3 of 5 boxes ticked to validate the squeeze thesis. 4️⃣ CATALYST CALENDAR 3 Jul – NFP: sub-75 k print could fire the opening salvo. 9 Jul – Tariff freeze decision: escalation would revive safe-haven demand. 15 Jul – CPI & 30-31 Jul – FOMC: dovish turn + soft data could complete the squeeze. Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinion for educational purposes only; it is not financial advice. Trading futures and commodities involves substantial risk and can lead to total loss of capital—do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified professional before acting.
COMEX:GC1!
by AustrianTradingMachine
1
Bitcoin: a decision week Previous week brought some relief among market participants, when it was announced that the U.S. Administration and China completed the deal regarding trade tariffs. Details of this deal have not been publicly disclosed, however, the markets reacted positively to it. The U.S. equity market gained significantly, while the crypto market managed to hold higher grounds. BTC started the week with a break of $105K toward the upside, testing the resistance at $108K. The majority of trades occurred between $106K and $107K. The RSI continued to move above the 50 level, indicating that the market is still not ready to seek the oversold market side. The indicator is ending the week at the 56, bringing some probability for the overbought market side in the coming period. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the cross might come anytime soon. Charts are showing that the BTC is currently on the cross road. There are equal probabilities that the coin might be traded toward both sides in the week ahead. On one hand, trades from the last week showed enough buying orders, which were holding the coin at the higher grounds, continuously seeking the break of the $108K level. However, if this market strength does not manage to support the BTC in the week ahead, then the reversal will be inevitable. In this case, the $105K will be the first stop.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
Gold in a Shifting Macro Landscape Fundamentals First: Why is Gold Falling While DXY is Too? Normally, gold and the U.S. dollar share an inverse relationship (which means, when DXY weakens, gold rises). But recently, this correlation has broken down, and that divergence is a loud macro signal. What’s Happening: Trade Deal Optimism: Headlines suggest the U.S. is nearing a resolution with China and other partners. With reduced geopolitical tension, investors are reallocating from safe-haven assets like gold into risk-on trades like equities and crypto. Iran-Israel Ceasefire: The temporary cooling of conflict has revived risk appetite. Traders are rotating out of war hedges (like gold and oil) and into tech, growth, and EM plays. Real Yields Still Elevated: Despite a softening Fed narrative, U.S. real yields remain positive, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. The fact that gold couldn't rally even as the 10-year note softened post-Moody's downgrade could be telling. My Perspective: This is the first clear signal in months that geopolitical hedging may have peaked. When gold decouples from its safe-haven narrative despite macro uncertainty, that often precedes a structural rotation phase, especially if institutional flows favor equities. Technical Breakdown Gold has broken below its 50-day SMA at $3,322 and is trading in the lower third of its 3-month range. While the daily candles show increasing selling pressure, especially on lower highs (a sign of weakening bullish momentum) RSI : Falling toward 40, with no bullish divergence yet. Support Level : $3,176: Previous swing low Resistance Level : $3,444: previous swing high What This Move Might Be Telling Us When gold sells off on dollar weakness and geopolitical calm, the market isn’t just relaxing. It is rotating. The de-grossing of gold-heavy hedges: Some hedge funds may be taking profit on gold-heavy exposure from Q1’s rally. Rise of risk appetite despite cracks: Markets are forward-pricing trade peace and earnings resilience, possibly too early. Gold might not be in trouble, but it’s on the bench. Unless something reignites fear (e.g., Fed policy mistake, Middle East flashpoint, or economic shock), capital may stay elsewhere.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by JinDao_Tai
30/06 WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ↗️GOLD PLAN – 30/06: WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ☄️ ✅ Macro Context – Focus on USD Debt and Political Pressure Today marks the final trading day of June, and the U.S. faces a $6 trillion debt maturity from Covid-era borrowings, which may impact USD liquidity and market sentiment. During the Asian session, gold experienced a sharp drop to the 32xx area before bouncing back and is now hovering near last week's close. While the medium-term structure remains bearish, short-term signals suggest a potential reversal and recovery. ✅Political Catalyst: → Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 1%-2%, stating he won’t appoint anyone unwilling to ease policy. → This raises expectations of future rate cuts, which could support gold prices in the near term. ✅ Technical Outlook – Multi-timeframe Structure On the higher timeframes, gold continues to correct lower. However, short-term candles are showing recovery momentum, with buyers absorbing around the 327x zone. Today’s strategy: prioritize short-term BUY setups aligned with the recovery wave. ✔️Key Resistance & Support Levels 🔺Resistance: 3283 – 3291 – 3301 – 3322 🔻Support: 3277 – 3271 – 3259 – 3247 🔖Trade Scenarios ✅Buy Scalping 🔺Entry: 3272 – 3274 🔹SL: 3268 ✔️TP: 3282 – 3288 – 3298 ✅Buy Zone 🔺Entry: 3249 – 3251 🔹SL: 3244 ✔️TP: 3265 – 3282 – 3295 – 3310 💠Sell Scalping 🔺Entry: 3298 – 3300 🔹SL: 3304 ✔️TP: 3292 – 3282 – 3270 💠Sell Zone 🔺Entry: 3327 – 3329 🔹SL: 3333 ✔️TP: 3322 – 3310 – 3298 – 3282 ⚡️ Final Note As this is the month-end session, expect possible volatility driven by USD flows and institutional rebalancing.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
Is Mexico's Peso at the Crossroads?The recent imposition of U.S. sanctions on three Mexican financial institutions - CIBanco, Intercam Banco, and Vector Casa de Bolsa - has ignited a crucial debate over the Mexican peso's stability and the intricate dynamics of U.S.-Mexico relations. Washington accuses these entities of laundering millions for drug cartels and facilitating fentanyl precursor payments, marking the first actions under new anti-fentanyl legislation. While these institutions collectively hold a relatively small portion of Mexico's total banking assets (less than 3%), the move carries significant symbolic weight and prompts a re-evaluation of the peso's outlook. The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, swiftly rejected the allegations, demanding concrete evidence and initiating its investigations, including the temporary regulatory intervention of CIBanco and Intercam to safeguard depositors. Economically, the peso faces a nuanced landscape. Before the sanctions, the Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated remarkable resilience, appreciating significantly against the dollar, bolstered by Mexico's comparatively higher interest rates and robust trade flows with the U.S. However, the recent divergence in monetary policy, with **Banxico** easing rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, now presents a potential headwind for the peso. While analysts generally suggest limited systemic risk to Mexico's broader financial system from these targeted sanctions, the action introduces an element of uncertainty. It raises concerns about potential capital flight, increased compliance costs for other Mexican financial institutions, and a possible erosion of investor confidence, factors that could exert downward pressure on the peso. Geopolitically, these sanctions underscore the escalating U.S. campaign against fentanyl trafficking, now intricately linked with broader trade and security tensions. President Donald Trump's past threats of punitive tariffs on Mexican imports - aimed at curbing drug flows - highlight the volatile nature of this bilateral relationship. The sanctions serve as a potent political message from Washington, signaling its resolve to combat the fentanyl crisis on all fronts, including financial pipelines. This diplomatic friction, coupled with the ongoing complexities of migration and security cooperation, creates a challenging backdrop for the USD/MXN exchange rate. While the U.S. and Mexico maintain a strong intergovernmental relationship, these pressures test the limits of their collaboration and could influence the peso's trajectory in the medium term.
Long
by UDIS_View
Gold Under Pressure As Dollar StrengthenGold remains under pressure after a false breakout at $3,350, as the dollar's sudden strength dominates the market. Despite Powell's slightly dovish tone, Tuesday's PMI and JOLTs job data favored the dollar, keeping the market in limbo. Technically, gold has established a new range between $3,350 and $3,300. A drop to the lower end of this range could spark short-term buying opportunities. With the ADP numbers on the horizon, the market awaits further cues.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by KINGSLIGHTFX
Análisis Técnico Multidireccional SAND USDT. Overall Trend and Price Patterns: In the long and medium term, SAND's trend is bearish. This is confirmed by the 4-hour charts and higher, where lower highs and lower lows are observed. The "Smart Money Concept" indicator also indicates a "Trend: Negative". A descending channel has been identified on the 4-hour chart, a bearish continuation pattern that suggests the price will continue to move downward within this channel. Previously, a descending triangle with similar bearish implications was considered. 2. Key Levels (Support and Resistance): Resistance: Levels around $0.2484 (15m chart) and "Order Blocks" or "Supply Zones" (red-shaded areas) on the 1h and 4h charts. Support: "Demand Zones" or "Order Blocks" (green/blue shaded areas) on the 1h and 4h charts, and the $0.2361 level (15m chart). The bottom line of the descending channel also acts as dynamic support. 3. Momentum Indicators and Moving Averages: Short Term (30 min - 1 hour): Investing.com reports "Strong Buy" and the 5, 10, and 20-period Moving Averages show a "Buy" signal. Some oscillators like RSI, Ultimate Oscillator, and ROC are also indicating "Buy". This suggests a very recent bounce or bullish momentum. Medium/Long Term (5 hours - Monthly): Investing.com reports "Strong Sell". The 100 and 200-period Moving Averages also show a "Sell" signal, confirming the bearish trend in these broader timeframes. Warnings: Indicators like STOCHRSI, Williams %R, and CCI are in "Overbought" conditions on some timeframes, suggesting that the short-term bounce might be running out of steam and prone to a correction or bearish continuation. 4. Volume: Volume has been significant during price declines, reinforcing selling pressure. Volume tends to decrease as the price approaches the apex of consolidation patterns. 5. Fund Flows (On-Chain): Large transfers of SAND (over 1.8 million tokens) were observed leaving Upbit wallets to a specific address in the early hours of June 30, 2025. Such significant movements from exchanges can indicate potential future selling pressure or internal exchange movements. Overall Conclusion: While SAND has shown a slight bounce or bullish momentum in the very short timeframes (30 min - 1 hour), the dominant trend in the medium and long term remains bearish, confirmed by price patterns (descending channel), Smart Money Concepts analysis, and longer-duration moving averages. Indicators showing "overbought" conditions in smaller timeframes suggest that this bounce may not be sustainable in the long run and that the price could move downwards again to follow the main trend. Large token movements from Upbit add an element of uncertainty and potential selling pressure.
Long
by farfanluna
GBP/CHF - Channel Breakout (02.07.2025)The GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.0956 2nd Resistance – 1.0996 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
LCrude Oil: Bearish Pressure as Brazil Emerges as an Energy PHLCrude Oil: Bearish Pressure as Brazil Emerges as an Energy Powerhouse By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades LCrude (Ticker AT:Lcrude), which replicates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract, has been one of the most volatile assets in 2025. It faces mounting pressure from a growing global supply, cautious demand, and a renewed wave of investment in Latin America—especially in Brazil. Technical Analysis Technically, LCrude has lost momentum since the April 2024 highs near $87 per barrel. After breaking the upward trendline in late June, the same daily candle triggered a corrective move toward the $64–$65 range, where it has been trading since. The price entered a downward channel, and the key $66 support was broken decisively. Losing that level opens the door for a drop toward $60 per barrel. On the upside, a recovery above $73 would reignite buying pressure, targeting $78 near the long-term point of control. The support around the $54.72 lows reinforces the view that LCrude is now trading around its mean. Moving average crossovers—where the 200-period MA sits above the 50-period—suggest that price corrections may continue. Fundamental Analysis On the macroeconomic front, concerns over economic slowdowns in China and Europe are weighing on demand expectations. At the same time, the outlook for a supply surplus is solidifying, particularly with signals coming from emerging producer countries. One of the most significant developments is the resurgence of Brazilian oil—a silent revolution that could shift the global energy power balance. Brazil, now an external member of OPEC+, has impressed with record discoveries and licensing rounds. Its offshore projects offer an internal rate of return (IRR) close to 26%, among the highest in the world. Sector Experts project that by 2030, Brazil could surpass 5 million barrels per day, placing it among the global top five, just behind the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia. However, the sustainability of this growth will depend on the exploration of new frontiers, such as the Foz do Amazonas basin. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that without new discoveries, production could begin to decline after 2030. Conclusion LCrude's performance will depend on both technical patterns and fundamental factors tied to geopolitics and the global supply-demand balance. Brazil’s rise on the global energy map and the context of oversupply exert structural bearish pressure on the market. Nonetheless, current levels continue to offer opportunities for traders focused on range strategies and momentum. ******************************************************************************************* La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial. Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información. Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada no es un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
Gold prices have risen sharply. How should we trade gold? 📣Gold news: US Senate passes Trump tax reform bill. Trump wins major victory Trump's signature tax and spending cuts bill passed the Senate on Tuesday. Republican leaders finally convinced dissenting lawmakers after a hard fight, helping Trump win another political victory. Trump refuses to extend July 9 tariff deadline US President Trump reiterated on Tuesday that he has no intention of extending the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries after it expires on July 9. When asked whether he would extend the suspension of tariffs, Trump replied on Air Force One: "No, I haven't thought about it. I will write to many countries to notify them of the tariff rates they will face." Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to extend its two-day rally, fluctuating narrowly in the Asian session on Wednesday, just below Tuesday's one-week high. The dollar's slight rebound - from its lowest level since February 2022 - put pressure on gold. Moreover, improving market sentiment continues to weaken demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, further limiting its upside. ⭐️Technical Analysis: Trend lines are steadily picking up, and continued buying could move towards 3383 based on today's ADP-NF data 💰Set Gold Price: 💰Sell Gold Zone: 3375-3385 ​​SL 3395 TP1: $3370 TP2: $3360 TP3: $3350 💰Buy Gold Zone: $3315-$3310 SL $3305 TP1: $3320 TP2: $3330 TP3: $3340 ⭐️Technical Analysis: Set reasonable buy orders based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 2, 2025 GBPUSDOn Wednesday, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair is trading unchanged at around 1.37450. However, dovish statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and growing concerns about the budget may put pressure on the dollar in the near term. Investors are awaiting the ADP report on US employment for June, which will be released later on Wednesday, in the hope of new momentum. Powell said on Tuesday that the US central bank would be patient about further interest rate cuts, but did not rule out a rate cut at its July meeting, although the decision would depend on incoming data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, short-term interest rate futures now price in the probability of a rate cut in July at almost 1 in 4, up from less than 1 in 5 previously. Investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending bill, which could increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion. The bill will return to the House of Representatives for final approval. Fiscal concerns could dampen optimism and contribute to a decline in the US dollar. As for the pound sterling, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that there are currently signs of a weakening UK labor market and stressed that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. The UK central bank is expected to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, bringing them to 3.5% to combat sluggish economic growth and a weakening labor market. Rate cuts are expected in August, September, and November 2025, with possible quarterly reductions. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.37450, SL 1.37900, TP 1.36750
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004