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Silver Faces Heavy Resistance: Time to Consider a Short?The price of Silver recently reached a key weekly demand zone from 2012, a level that has historically been significant in the market. Currently, the price appears to be following a similar reversal pattern to Gold, suggesting potential downside in the near term. For a clearer understanding of this correlation, check out my detailed analysis of Gold on my page, where I delve into its ongoing reversal pattern. In the chart provided below, you’ll see my weekly analysis of Silver, highlighting this critical supply area: View the chart here. Market Sentiment and COT Insights Market sentiment in Silver is still leaning bullish among retail traders, contrasting with the more developed reversal in Gold. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to show strong bullish positioning among retail traders in Silver, which often signals a potential contrarian move. Meanwhile, the Forecast Indicator, which captures seasonal tendencies, is pointing towards a possible reversal in Silver during this part of the year. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, Silver’s move into this weekly demand zone could mark the start of a more pronounced downtrend, aligning with the reversal patterns seen in Gold. Historically, this zone has acted as a strong resistance level, where price has struggled to break higher. As such, it’s a prime setup for a short position with a focus on capturing downside momentum. The current setup aligns with both technical signals and the COT report’s insights, indicating that smart money may soon start to unwind long positions, adding to the potential for further declines in Silver. Trade Setup Given the current scenario, we’re keeping a close eye on Silver for a short setup. Key factors to watch for confirmation include: -A sustained rejection at the current demand level. -Divergence signals aligning with a downward move. Further weakening in Gold, which could act as a leading indicator for Silver’s bearish movement. Final Thoughts The current analysis suggests that Silver could be entering a potential reversal phase, similar to what is already underway in Gold. However, it’s crucial to remain patient and wait for confirmation signals before committing to a short position. I’d love to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you think Silver’s reversal is imminent, or is there more room for upside before a potential downturn? Let me know in the comments below!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
XAGUSD Trade Log Trade Setup - XAGUSD Long in Daily FVG Details: - Pair: XAGUSD (Silver) - Timeframe: Daily - Setup: Long within daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) Trade Parameters: - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:5 - Risk: 1% of account - Entry: Watch for confirmation of price stability or bullish reversal signals within the daily FVG. Stop-Loss and Take-Profit: - Stop-Loss: Positioned just below the lower boundary of the FVG. - Take-Profit: Target set at five times the stop-loss distance to achieve the 1:5 RRR. Additional Notes: - With a high RRR, rely on strong confirmation signals to support the extended target. - Stay alert for economic events that could increase XAGUSD’s volatility.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Fondera-Trading
USDJPY Daily Outlook: Bearish Bias Expected Amid Key Economic !USDJPY Daily Outlook: Bearish Bias Expected Amid Key Economic Drivers (07/11/2024) Overview On November 7, 2024, USDJPY appears to be leaning toward a slight bearish bias as various fundamental factors impact the pair. This article delves into the primary drivers shaping USDJPY today, including central bank policy stances, global market sentiment, and economic data releases. Traders and investors on TradingView can benefit from a close analysis of these influences to navigate the USDJPY pair’s movement. Keywords: USDJPY forecast, forex trading, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, technical analysis, forex market --- Key Factors Supporting a USDJPY Bearish Bias Today 1. Dovish Stance from the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve has recently shifted toward a more cautious tone on rate hikes, with key policymakers indicating a preference for a "wait-and-see" approach. This cautious stance could limit USD strength, particularly as traders anticipate no further rate hikes unless inflation surges unexpectedly. A softer dollar environment could weigh on USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan’s Slightly More Hawkish Outlook While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has traditionally maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, recent comments from BoJ officials suggest a growing willingness to adjust policy if inflation stays persistently higher. This subtle shift in tone has sparked interest in the yen as traders reassess Japan’s inflation and policy outlook, which could add bearish pressure on USDJPY. 3. Rising Risk Aversion Risk sentiment has turned cautious in global markets, with equities slightly under pressure and investors showing renewed interest in safe-haven assets. The yen, as a traditional safe-haven currency, often benefits in times of risk aversion, making USDJPY more vulnerable to downside movement when risk sentiment fades. 4. Weak U.S. Economic Data Recent U.S. economic indicators, such as declining consumer sentiment and slower employment growth, are casting doubt on the resilience of the U.S. economy. Softer data contributes to concerns that the Fed may pause or even reverse its tightening, further pressuring USD and potentially driving USDJPY lower. 5. Technical Analysis Insights On the technical side, USDJPY is trading near significant resistance at the 150.00 level, a historically sensitive price area. If sellers defend this resistance, USDJPY could turn bearish, with initial support around 148.00. Technical indicators such as the RSI suggest USDJPY may be overbought, aligning with a potential pullback. USDJPY Today: What to Watch For - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Today's release of U.S. jobless claims data may further affect USD sentiment, particularly if the data reveals a labor market slowdown, adding to USDJPY’s bearish potential. - BoJ Commentary – Any fresh statements from BoJ officials about policy flexibility could strengthen the yen and add further pressure on USDJPY. Conclusion Today, USDJPY shows signs of a bearish bias due to dovish signals from the Fed, a potentially more hawkish BoJ, risk aversion, and weaker U.S. data. As always, traders should monitor key data releases for potential market-moving surprises that could impact USDJPY. SEO Tags : #USDJPYforecast #ForexTrading #JapaneseYen #USD #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis #ForexMarket #RiskSentiment #CentralBankPolicy #DailyForexAnalysis
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Dogecoin Just Barked ,Thanks to Elon & Trump’s crypto magicMusk & Trump: Dogecoin’s New Favorite Hoomans? In a landscape where cryptocurrency trends often intersect with political drama, both Bitcoin and Dogecoin have seen notable price movements leading up to the US presidential election. Bitcoin has rallied to within 5% of its all time high, while Dogecoin, defying the general altcoin downturn, surged almost 12%. This surge followed Elon Musk’s endorsement and the coin’s growing association with Donald Trump’s campaign. Dogecoin’s Rise and the Musk Trump Link Bitcoin’s upward trend is mainly driven by technical factors and larger economic conditions. On the other hand, Dogecoin’s momentum can be traced to its ties with Elon Musk and Donald Trump. After Musk’s appearance at a Trump rally in New York, Dogecoin’s price jumped by 16%, hitting $0.167 and marking the highest percentage gain among the top 100 cryptocurrencies for that day. Musk, known for his strong support of DOGE, proposed a “Department of Government Efficiency”—cleverly abbreviated as D.O.G.E . making the coin a playful symbol for Trump’s campaign goal of reducing government spending. Musk’s impact on Dogecoin is well-documented, particularly during the 2021 bull market when he frequently mentioned it on Twitter. Recently, he fueled further excitement by tweeting a meme of himself with a DOGE avatar, invigorating Dogecoin’s community. Paul Howard, a senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, stated, “DOGE is now closely connected to the US presidential race due to Musk’s endorsement and his presence at Trump’s rallies.” Prediction Markets, Dogecoin & Trump’s Chances Dogecoin’s rise isn’t happening in isolation. The correlation between Trump’s campaign progress and Dogecoin’s price growth has been magnified by prediction markets favoring Trump’s chances in the election. On Polymarket, blockchain-based odds for Trump’s victory have risen from 61% to nearly 66% in the last week. This Dogecoin-Trump link, strengthened by Musk’s involvement, brings a speculative edge to both the meme coin and Trump’s campaign, both driven by their nontraditional popularity and social media narratives. As Trump’s odds improve, some believe Dogecoin could keep gaining attention if Musk’s D.O.G.E. proposal picks up support. Although the department idea is only theoretical, it has resonated with both Musk and Trump supporters, injecting a novel and ironic rallying point into the 2024 campaign. Market Reactions and Future Implications Dogecoin’s recent rally shows how influential prominent endorsements can be, even amid a sluggish altcoin market. Once considered a “joke currency,” DOGE now has serious investors betting on Musk’s ongoing support to maintain its relevance. While it remains well below its peak of $0.7 in 2021, Dogecoin’s current five-month high and unique position in the political limelight could attract more attention leading up to Election Day. For Bitcoin, the focus is on its tendency to rally after elections, as new market entrants often surge in during these periods. If BTC’s current “bullish setup” resembles late 2020’s conditions, as Sigel suggests, it may reflect crypto’s changing role during political transitions and heightened speculation. Overall, the intertwining of political narratives with cryptocurrency prices signals a noticeable market shift. While Bitcoin remains relatively stable, Dogecoin’s speculative value fluctuates with the influence of key figures. Whether gains are driven by Trump, Musk, or broader market forces is uncertain, but one thing is clear: in the unpredictable world of crypto, politics and social popularity have become key factors in shaping market dynamics.
Long
by moonypto
11/6/24 - $crox - another perspective on $spxew comp- quick share - i love to compare on "pairs" as crypto has taught me: you don't care if your "alt" coin has gone up on it's USD pair (e.g. it's "$/altcoinprice) when it's BTC pair ($altcoinprice/BTC) is down. in other words, you took *more* risk vs. the pair, so you better have made a good return - so why do i make the above point? well... in stonks, nobody does this, really. look at any ticker in the nasdaq vs. its NASDAQ:QQQ pair. for instance. say you like NYSE:IBM (lol), how is $ibm/ NASDAQ:QQQ ? over time? it allows you to compare performance over time without cherry picking the timing. that's the beauty. back in the day we used to say "YTD" xyz ticker is doing better. or in the last 3 years, abc ticker is doing better. by dividing by the comparison ticker, we can make a comparison that ignores any time-picking bias. - back to $crox. - the reason i flag this chart is a. i love to compare vs. NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY , INDEX:SPXEW (equal weight S&P) among others (including stonks vs. BINANCE:BTCUSDT )!!... and b. ***this is such an interesting chart***... the TA (technical analysis) is pretty cray cray for those who like to draw lines. the support/ resistance. it's quite beautiful. triple tops. it's all so... well. what do you think? bot some NASDAQ:CROX today. it's a small position. and i mean small 50 bps. i'd like it lower. but the tariff fake-news-headlines are back baby. NYSE:ELF , NYSE:YETI (let's see tmr AM) and $crox. that's my tariff portfolio for today. tomorrow could change. have a good night, my friend. flag anything that's interesting (esp if you disagree) pls! V
NASDAQ:CROXLong
by VROCKSTAR
Trump Win Could Spur BOJ Rate Hike if Yen Weakens Further Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is adding new uncertainties for the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The yen's recent slide against the dollar has raised concerns that a further drop—potentially hitting a key 160 yen per dollar level—could prompt the BOJ to hike rates sooner than expected. Former BOJ executive Kazuo Momma suggests that rapid yen depreciation is one of the few triggers for an early rate move. For now, a January rate hike is seen as plausible, but Japan's political climate and economic stability remain critical factors in timing. The BOJ is set to weigh these variables closely ahead of its mid-December policy meeting, where no surprises are expected if a move is communicated in advance. Source: Insights based on Bloomberg's reporting by Toru Fujioka.
by Eleazarahmath
BITCOIN TREND PIVOT With all the geo-political noise it's easy to get caught up in the low timeframe madness. Zooming out and looking at the High timeframe structure, things get a little simpler... For me, BTC has been in two different smaller phases within a larger bullflag pattern. Phase one is the bearish part of the bullflag where price prints lower highs and lower lows , this lasted for 150 days with a pivot once price wicked into the bullish OB @ $50K. From that pivot point the second phase started and it's where we are now. Once we got our first higher low the new bullish trend began, higher lows and higher highs followed and continues on until now. Now the interesting part is how BTC has broken out of the bigger bullflag pattern and that's shown by the X's and ^'s on the chart. In recent days BTC has broken out of the bigger bullflag pattern as shown by the tick where price rejected off the '21 ATH and retested what was formerly trend resistance and now support after a successful bullish reaction off that level for the first time in 8 months. Price is now at the highs with the US election around the corner and %16B FTX repayments on the way , can BTC go one step further and make a new ATH? Time will tell but for now the structure is the most important thing. Higher highs and higher lows, that's it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
04/11/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $73,633.97 Last weeks low: $67,477.38 Midpoint: $70,555.67 ELECTION WEEK IS HERE! This is the one we've all been waiting for and probably been nervous about. On the 5th November the US election takes place, now we might not know for certain who has won on that day but we should have a good idea barring no funny business. At time of writing, Trump leads the betting market polls 57.7% : 42.3% which is down significantly from last weeks high of 67%. A lot can happen between now and tomorrow but for BTC and crypto in general a Trump win should be favourable to the markets, a Harris win might delay cryptos progress IMO. If the US election wasn't enough for one week FOMC takes place a couple of days later. With a forecasted cut of 25bps coming taking the interest rate from 5.00% to 4.75%. The last FOMC saw a 50bps cut so the FED is rapidly moving to a more risk on environment which should be pro crypto, however I do think the election result will dwarf this FOMC in importance as the 25bps cut has been known about for awhile and most likely priced in. Obviously the election is the main focus of this week, a number of projects have token unlocks this week too: Larger % circ. supply: NEON,BANANA,ADA,XAI,BGB,AGI Smaller % Cir. supply: SOL,WLD,TIA,TAO,AVAX,DOGE,SEI,NEAR,DOT,SUI&FIL The altcoin market is still at the mercy of BTC and BTC is at the mercy of this election currently so we'll have a better picture of what the future may look like by the end of the week.
by ProR35
Bitcoin’s Path to New Highs: Strategic Patience We’re witnessing BTC testing significant structural resistance within this upward channel. Historically, such levels, especially in the context of macro-economic uncertainties, have defined pivotal moments in Bitcoin’s price action. As we approach the $75,000 region, it’s crucial to observe how BTC interacts with this resistance. If a breakout occurs with volume confirmation, it could set the stage for a powerful upward trajectory. However, patience is key. The market often “breathes” before major moves, and any false breakouts here could lead to rapid pullbacks. This is not merely about trading levels but understanding market psychology. Every price level reflects collective sentiment — a blend of FOMO, skepticism, and seasoned discipline. Remember, profit is not just about “catching tops or bottoms” but executing a strategy that respects both momentum and caution. Let’s maintain a watchful eye on the next few sessions. A successful close above this level signals strength; a retreat, however, might be an invitation for a reentry at lower support levels around $70,000. Stay disciplined, respect the levels, and as always, let the chart tell its story. dyor
Short
by HedonistTrade
The situation of gold in the coming weeks, correction or new H?The situation of gold in the coming weeks, correction or new ceiling? According to the chart in the weekly long time frame, we have the hanged man candle, which is confirmed by a big red candle. Considering the fundamental conditions of the US presidential election, the growth of gold in recent weeks, the announcement of the US interest rate today, we may see a correction for gold, this precious metal. Profit from existing positions with capital management. good luck
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by mansour1978
World gold was sold off and plummetedGold sold off and plunged to its lowest level in 3 weeks after the unexpectedly decisive victory of Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting appears to be overshadowed but also in the spotlight this week. The meeting began Wednesday morning and ended Thursday afternoon with a statement from the FOMC and a press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. Most people believe the Fed will cut its key interest rate by 0.25%. “While the market expects a 25 basis point rate cut, any sign of a pause or slowdown in cuts will put further pressure on gold, which is already sensitive to rising interest rates and a stronger dollar", “With a stronger dollar and rising yields, gold faces immediate downside risks, potentially extending towards the 50-day moving average at $2,636.66 an ounce if the Federal Reserve State signals more caution about future interest rate cuts.” This puts a lot of pressure on Gold and we can completely believe that gold will fall even deeper 🔥 XAUUSD BUY LIMIT 2649 - 2647🔥 ✅TP1: 2660 ✅TP2: 2670 ✅TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2638 🔥 XAUUSD SELL LIMIT 2676 - 2674🔥 ✅TP1: 2665 ✅TP2: 2655 ✅TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2685
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
How the U.S. Election Could Impact USD and EUR/USD Trading"As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s time to consider how it might impact our trading strategies, particularly with the U.S. dollar and EUR/USD. Political shifts bring market volatility, so let’s break down how each outcome could influence the dollar and the EUR/USD pair. Election Outcomes and Market Impact 1. If Democrats Win: A Democratic victory could weaken the dollar, as policies may lead to lower inflation and reduced real interest rates. This scenario might push the EUR/USD pair higher, with potential targets around 1.1300–1.1850. For traders, this could mean a favorable environment to consider EUR/USD gains. 2. If Republicans Win: On the other hand, a Republican win might initially strengthen the dollar, thanks to expected trade policies and rising interest rates. However, this strength could be short-lived. Long-term factors may introduce volatility, potentially giving the euro a chance to regain ground against the dollar. Key Levels to Watch in EUR/USD From a technical standpoint, keep an eye on resistance levels from 1.1275 to 1.1750 for potential bullish moves, while support around 1.1000 and a critical level at 1.0900 could indicate a downturn. Combining these levels with election news can help you make informed trade adjustments. How to Trade Before, During, and After the Election Leading up to the election, watch for narrowing polls, as this could introduce uncertainty and increased volatility. During the election itself, expect the market to react strongly—prepare for a Trump win to potentially strengthen the dollar and a Harris victory to have the opposite effe
by habib75rajabi
Crypto Frenzy: Elon Musk's Impact on Bitcoin and DogecoinCryptocurrencies are skyrocketing just 7 days before the presidential election, and many people are wondering why. The answer, which should come as no surprise, is of course, Elon Musk.The reason is a perfect storm of sorts. Musk’s increased prominence as he campaigns for Donald Trump, his recent comments about cryptocurrency, and his potential role in a Trump administration (should Trump win) are all driving up the price of Bitcoin as well as Dogecoin and a number of other meme coins.Dogecoin, a favorite of Musk’s, was up 9.7% on Tuesday. This comes after the tech billionaire said at a Trump political rally in Pennsylvania that he’s not “actively involved” in crypto: “I just like Dogecoin.” The billionaire founder of Tesla and Space X and owner of X has a long history with Dogecoin, which he first promoted in 2021 on Saturday Night Live, causing the price to spike, only to plunge afterward. (The meme coin’s price has gone up and down based on Musk’s comments since.)Musk, who has been actively campaigning for the Republican nominee and raising money for Trump, has also said he would be heading the Department of Government Efficiency, dubbed DOGE, if the former president is elected. That has also contributed to the frenzy, leading to a more-than-20% gain in Dogecoin over the past seven days, and 33% over the month. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which is the largest cryptocurrency by total market capitalization, was up over 4.4% on Tuesday, seemingly swept up in the excitement. It’s now trading just short of its March record high.
by habib75rajabi