BUY XAGUSD RIGHT NOWExxpectation value is supply zone.
Today market is ranging.
Counter trend set up is best idea
Fundamental Analysis
if the trend line breaks we are at wargold is just flying and if oil follows there is going to be war In Middle East
Hank Tough - Long ride down to 4,514 for US500Even with better than expect numbers with NFP.
The matter remains that the world is not on great terms with MAGAs Tariff plan. Tariffs are in an indirect way a threat when it comes to trade wars.
Because, there'll need to be reciprocals and larger measures to make up for the mess.
Apparently, the calculations of the tariffs was to make up for the trade deficit, but it means that there'll need to ACTUALLY be the same amount or more of exports - which we know won't happen as there are two types of goods.
Elastic - Where the price and demand and supply changes.
Inelastic - where they a don't change much.
Right now there is a LARGE Inverse Cup and Handle forming on the daily with the price below 20 and 200 - showing strong downside to come.
So, we can expect looking at the pattern to continue to 4,514.
'Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thoughts?
SPX 10% in 48hrsSometimes a good trade is no trade in itself. That being said.
Historically RARE we don't get a relief rally but we need the fed.
The market will look for the Fed to provide answers.
+
Fear and Greed index
Technicals oversold
VIX
Money rotation showing signs of a turn.
XLY/XLP at the back end of January shows weakening of the US consumer.
BTC(20250404) market analysis and operationTechnical analysis of BTC contract on April 4: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single negative and a single positive. The price was still at a low level. The fast and slow lines of the attached chart indicator were glued together and flattened, but it was obvious that the rising price was suppressed, and the pullback was not strong. On the contrary, there seemed to be more opportunities for decline. From the overall technical indicators, the decline in the big trend is still very obvious, so the idea remains unchanged and continue to sell; in the short cycle, the current price is still in a volatile trend. The four-hour chart has a single negative and a single positive, and the attached chart indicator is dead cross, but the strength has not come out. The hourly chart corrected the high point position of 84,000 after the sharp drop this week. The current attached chart indicator is golden cross running, and there is no room for rise or fall, so wait and see during the day, pay attention to the strength and weakness of the European market and the impact of the evening data
NFP beats but focus is fixated on trade warToday’s NFP report was NEVER going to take much attention away from the trade war – and so it has proved with mixed readings. US rates were being priced lower amid deteriorating trade war risks, which remains the main focal point. Powell is up next, while CPI, PPI and UoM surveys all on tap next week.
The nonfarm payrolls data beat expectations, with a headline print of 228K. Most of those gains were in full-time jobs. But the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% from 4.1% unexpectedly. Market’s focus is on trade war, and rightly so. They were never going to go wild on this NFP release.
Average earnings came in as expected, rising 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, but the prior month weas revised lower a tad. Year-over-year rate was weaker 3.8% vs. 4.0%. Nothing to get too excited over, but potentially good news as far as inflation is concerned.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Structural analysis and operation suggestions after gold washAnalysis of gold market trend: Gold fluctuated quite a lot yesterday. It rose at the opening yesterday, rising to nearly 60 US dollars, and then fell back after being blocked at the 3167 line. However, it fell below 3100, and the lowest to the top and bottom conversion was around 3054, a drop of nearly 114 US dollars. Beyond expectations, it pulled back to 80 US dollars, and the daily line finally closed with a cross Yin line. The rapid roller coaster is too scary. The market volatility is too large, so you can only watch more and do less. If you encounter non-agricultural data, according to yesterday's trend, the market may not be so big today. After all, it has already ended yesterday. When the price fell sharply, and then there was a sharp rebound to stand firm at 3100, the market of gold yesterday was thrilling, a super roller coaster, and the difficulty of gold operation has increased a lot. However, this kind of market is rare after all. After the ups and downs of gold, it will return to normal. Although today's non-agricultural data, I personally tend to fluctuate in a large range. It is estimated that it will not break yesterday's high point or yesterday's low point. If combined with silver, gold is still oscillating and bearish. At present, it should peak in the short term, and it will choose a direction after a correction.
Gold technical analysis: Therefore, gold is not as strong as before, so it is possible for gold to rise or fall in this state. Pay attention to the previous high of 3150 on the upside, and pay attention to the gains and losses of 3055 on the downside. The 4-hour cycle has cleverly entered the oscillation range. Although the market has gone out of the big drop space, the 4-hour cycle Bollinger has not opened, and the moving average system has not diverged. The effective range for the time being is within 3085/3135. Therefore, if there is no large fluctuation on Friday, you can refer to the range of the 4-hour cycle to do high-altitude and low-multiple transactions. The 1-hour moving average of gold still shows signs of turning downward, but the rise of gold in the US market has not allowed the 1-hour moving average of gold to enter the dead cross pattern, but the gold bulls are not very strong. Of course, there is also the impact of non-agricultural data. It is expected that after the big rise and fall on Thursday, the impact of Friday's data will not be great. Before the release of non-agricultural data, we should operate in the range of 3120-3066. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is to short on rebound and long on pullback. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3120-3125 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3054-3066 support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm. We must control the position and stop loss, set stop loss strictly, and do not resist single operation. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday. Welcome to experience, exchange real-time market conditions, and follow real-time orders.
Gold operation strategy: Short order strategy: Strategy 1: Short gold rebound near 3120-3125, stop loss 6 points, target near 3100-3085, break to see 3065 line;
Long order strategy: Strategy 2: Long gold pullback near 3070-3065, stop loss 6 points, target near 3100-3090, break to see 3110 line;
FIL/BTC Volume Blast—Is This the Turning Point?FIL/BTC just posted a massive volume spike after a prolonged downtrend, indicating a potential shift in the supply-demand balance. With trading activity at its highest in recent weeks, the pair could be gearing up for a strong rebound if bullish momentum holds. Keep an eye on whether price can stay above key moving averages and previous resistance levels—if so, it may confirm a trend reversal and pave the way for further upside. Stay cautious, though; sudden surges sometimes trigger rapid profit-taking before the real rally begins.
Gold Market Rejection at 3135 Ahead of NFPJust as expected, gold market mitigation was rejected at 3135—just 5 points out. With NFP on the horizon, a stronger dollar is being proposed in the short run, which may set the stage for a massive bullish build-up. Eyes on the market as volatility unfolds! follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
USD/JPY Market Update – 04 April 2025The USD/JPY pair has been trending lower, reflecting recent weakness in the US dollar and renewed strength in the Japanese yen, which is often viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty.
In addition, markets appear to be pricing in potential policy divergence between the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the US Federal Reserve, contributing to recent moves.
It’s worth noting that upcoming US employment data may have a significant impact on this pair, potentially increasing market volatility.
From a technical standpoint, several scenarios may unfold:
• The pair could approach the 146.5 area, where signs of resistance have previously emerged. If bearish momentum continues, it may revisit the 143.5 region. A break below this level could see the pair testing the psychological 140 mark – a zone that, historically, has attracted buyer interest.
• Alternatively, if the price moves above the 143.7 level and establishes support, it could indicate a shift in short-term sentiment. In such a case, a potential move towards the 150 level may be observed, particularly if supported by stronger-than-expected US employment figures.
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Trump single handedly started a worldwide recession- of course, economic recessions and a stock market correction/crash are two very different things but in this case it does seem like both are probably connected seeing tariff implementations against basically the entire world are hardly productive in an economic sense
- with March´s close, the 3M candle closed as a BEARISH engulfing
- SPX to fall at least to the 600 level but even a scenario such as a year to two year long bear market should not be excluded
In addition, there is a REAL RISK of China expediting its process of unification with Taiwan and could use the overall macro uncertainty as a veil under which it may attack the island sooner rather than in 2027 or 2028.
S&P 500 correction before the global fall.S&P 500 correction before the global fall of the usa stock market.
Hey traders! I’m sure many of you have noticed that after the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, the markets started getting pretty choppy.
The S&P 500 took a serious dive.
• On the weekly chart, I’ve marked a support level + the 161.8% Fibonacci level, where we might see a bounce back to the $5680–$5800 range.
• But from there, I think we could see the start of a major crash—both in equities and crypto—that could last 1–2 years.
• Based on my estimates, the S&P 500 could drop back to 2020–2021 levels, a wide range of 2200–3000.
• For Bitcoin, we’re talking around $5000; for Ethereum, $100–$300; and for Solana, $2–$12.
3D Chart:
3W Chart:
Real-world events that could tank the stock market this hard:
Global Recession: If major economies (US, China, EU) slide into a recession at the same time—think trade wars, rampant inflation, or a debt crisis—investors will dump risky assets like hot potatoes.
Trade War Escalation: Harsher tariffs between the US and China/EU could wreck supply chains, crush corporate earnings, and spark a full-on market panic.
Geopolitical Conflict: A big blow-up—like a full-scale war or crisis (say, Taiwan or the Middle East)—could send capital fleeing to safe havens (gold, bonds), while stocks and crypto get slaughtered.
Collapse of a Major Financial Player: If a big bank or hedge fund goes bust (Lehman Brothers 2.0-style) due to an overheated market or bad debt, it could trigger a domino effect.
Energy Crisis: A spike in oil/gas prices (from sanctions or conflicts, for example) could kneecap the economy and drag risk assets down with it.
Market Bubble Burst: If the current rally turns out to be a massive bubble (and plenty of folks think it is), its pop could pull indexes down all on its own.
Looming Wars: A potential Russia-Europe war starting as early as 2025, or an Iran-Israel conflict that drags in multiple nations, could destabilize global markets, spike energy prices, and send investors running for the exits.
Repeat of covid manipulation - sells to 34000 on US30.Breakdown of where US30 could be heading in the short team but also the long term.
Silver (XAG/USD) – Long Setup IdeaSilver (XAG/USD) – Long Setup Idea
Silver is currently trading around $31.30, while gold has surpassed the $3,000 mark, pushing the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) above 99 – a level that historically signals strong upside potential for silver. Industrial demand is surging, especially from solar energy, EVs, and electronics, with silver consumption expected to exceed 700 million ounces in 2025. Analysts from Capital Economics, UBS, and Citi forecast a price target of $36–38 in the next few months, supported by a persistent supply deficit and investor rotation from gold into undervalued silver.
🎯 Take Profit: $36.00
⏱️ Timeframe: 1–3 months
📊 Bias: Bullish
📉 Risk: Correction below $29 in case of weak macro or strong USD
SPX & ETH: Market Manipulation or Final Pump Before Dump?Just as the market shows a strong move up — with SPX hitting 0.5169 and ETH reclaiming 1813 — we receive breaking news:
🇨🇳 China will impose an additional 34% tariff on U.S. goods.
Combined with upcoming key events — Non-Farm Payrolls , Unemployment Rate , and Powell's Speech — this could trigger a dramatic shift in sentiment.
Technical clues:
• SPX drops sharply after touching the upper Bollinger Band;
• ETH also rejects resistance;
• RSI overheated (above 66);
• Weak institutional demand (Coinbase Premium barely positive);
• Selling pressure increasing with higher volume.
Conclusion: I’m staying out for now. This move could be a trap — a setup to lure in retail buyers before major volatility. Better safe than sorry.
Patience > FOMO.
SPX + ETH — Pre-NFP Pullback or Trap?Both SPX and ETH showed a strong rally, but now we’re seeing early signs of rejection:
• SPX dropped sharply from 0.5169 to 0.4861 (≈ -6%), printing a bearish candle at the top of the Bollinger band.
• ETH follows with a rejection near the upper band too.
• RSI on both charts was above 57 — momentum was hot, but likely overextended.
• Coinbase Premium still barely positive at +2.78 — no strong institutional demand behind the rally.
• Volumes on the sell candle spike — smart money unloading?
Timing matters: All this happens just 2 hours before major economic data (NFP + Unemployment) and a Fed speech.
My View: This smells like a setup to trap late buyers. No long positions until after the news drops. I’d rather miss a few % than get caught in algo-driven volatility.
Protect capital first. Patience wins.
ETH Market Check – April 4, 2025Let’s take a closer look at Ethereum (ETH) – not just following SPX, but showing some of its own behavior lately.
1. Structure & Indicators
- ETH is currently retesting the 200 EMA zone on the 1h chart, and candles are starting to flatten near resistance (around 1833–1835).
- RSI is at 56–57 and losing momentum, approaching overbought on low volume.
- Coinbase Premium is still negative (-36 earlier, now -21), meaning institutional buying pressure is not behind this move – it’s likely retail-driven .
- Bollinger Bands show price hugging the upper band, often a signal of a temporary stretch.
2. Volume Analysis
- Volume on the move up was decent but fading .
- No strong spikes that would suggest big buyers stepping in.
It looks more like shorts covering and FOMO buying.
3. Divergence Risk
- We’re seeing early signs of bearish divergence on RSI vs price – ETH pushing up while RSI is not following with strength.
- This usually signals weakness in continuation , especially near key resistance zones.
4. News & Macro Correlation
- ETH will likely react sharply to today’s NFP data and Powell’s speech, even if it’s crypto – macro still rules.
- If SPX dumps, ETH will follow , especially with its current weak spot structure.
My View:
ETH is not showing organic strength . This climb seems forced and light , with clear signs of hesitation.
Unless we get positive macro surprise , I expect ETH to either:
- stall at current levels and chop sideways
- or pull back fast toward 1795 / 1755 zone
So I’m not entering longs here. Watching for rejection confirmation and possibly a short setup if conditions align after the news.
DISNEY for sale?Under the 1974 trend line there’s absolutely no bullish argument. Already retraced a 62% of the whole upside movement since the 70’s. Once too big to fall, now maybe it’s a too big to move company. I am aware of the whole books to market ratio, but still see it as a value trap: over exposed to Asia and Europe, streaming isn’t going that well, parks suffering from slowing demand caused by inflation…
Skeptic | Gold Gears Up: Battle Between 3075.66 & 3128Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic.
Today, we're diving deep into XAU/USD (Gold) , breaking down the current structure and upcoming trade opportunities. 🔍
📊 Daily Structure:
The major trend remains bullish , with Gold showing strong upward momentum. If you've been following my previous breakdowns, you’ll remember I gave long triggers at 2955.31 , 3004.48 , and recently 3057.26 —all of which have played out well. Even if you entered based on your own signals in line with the trend, you should be sitting comfortably in profit.
🕒 1H Structure – What’s Next?
After that strong uptrend, Gold has entered a correction phase on the 1H chart.
📰 News Impact:
The recent announcement from President Trump imposing sweeping tariffs (10% baseline and up to 54% on China) has created major volatility across markets, including Gold. This geopolitical tension has added momentum to the asset, and we’re seeing it clearly on the chart.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
• Trigger: Break & close above 3128
• Since this aligns with the trend, larger targets and longer hold times are justified.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
• Trigger: Break & hold below 3075.66
• Manage risk carefully here—use tighter stop-losses and secure profits quickly since this is counter-trend.
⚠️ Key Notes:
🔹 Fundamentals: Heavy economic news flow today = High volatility expected.
🔹 Risk Management: Don’t overleverage. Only enter on confirmed breaks.
Stay skeptical, trade smart, and I’ll catch you in the next analysis! 👽📈
KASPA Support Bounce #KASPA price action has been a rollercoaster lately. After a steady decline from its highs, it hit a local low around $0.06 recently. Since then, it’s bounced nicely.
This rebound from key support, paired with growing volume, hints at renewed buyer interest
— could be a sign of strength returning to $KAS!
Gold/Silver Ratio Nears 100: What Does It Mean Historically?The Gold/Silver ratio is on the verge of reaching 100, an extremely rare level seen only at key historical turning points. The chart includes a 2,500-week linear regression channel, which shows that over the very long term, the ratio has been steadily rising, though at a slow pace. Occasionally, the ratio touches the 1.5 standard deviation line, and in rare, game-changing events, and sometimes it even breaks beyond that level.
Here are some of the key historical turning points marked by major spikes in the Gold/Silver ratio:
1- Early 1990s: The collapse of the Soviet Union, the Gulf War, and a U.S. recession pushed the ratio to 106. It remained above 1.5 standard deviations for more than two years.
2- 2002: Following the dot-com bubble burst, the 9/11 attacks, and the Iraq War, the ratio climbed to 82.6, nearing the 1.5 deviation line.
3- 2008 Recession: The global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent the ratio to 88.50. This spike sparked a major rally in both gold and silver, lasting until 2011 when the ratio reached one of its deepest bottoms.
4- 2019: The U.S.–China trade war under Trump’s first term pushed the ratio to 93, again nearing the 1.5 deviation threshold.
5- 2020 (COVID-19 Shock): The pandemic caused one of the biggest disruptions in modern economic history. Although relatively short-lived, its impacts were severe. The Gold/Silver ratio surged to 126 , marking the highest level in modern records, possibly the highest in all of history.
6- 2024–2025 (Global Trade War?): With the U.S. imposing major tariffs on key global trading partners, this could be another historic inflection point. The full impact is still unfolding, but risks of a serious global slowdown, or even a deep recession are rising. A full-scale trade war remains a real possibility.
Now, the Gold/Silver ratio is approaching 100 and nearing the 1.5 standard deviation line. It remains unclear whether this represents a powerful pair trade opportunity—"sell gold, buy silver"—or a structural breakout where the ratio stays elevated for an extended period. In either case market is showing that this is one of the rare turning point of global economy.
