DXY - ABC Move still in playDXY has been moving not so much on technical factors lately but more so with what Mr. Trump says, we still could see a move lower with an ABC pattern.
Good Luck
Fundamentalanalsysis
(XAGUSD) Volume Absorption to Bullish Continuation To Target🧱 1. Market Structure Breakdown:
The 4H chart of Silver (XAGUSD) reveals a well-structured price action sequence, beginning with a compression breakout, a strong bullish impulse, and a current retracement phase into a key reversal zone.
🔺 Symmetrical Triangle & Volume Absorption (Early July):
The market was forming higher lows and lower highs, indicative of consolidation inside a symmetrical triangle.
During this phase, a volume absorption event occurred—indicating smart money was accumulating before a breakout.
This was followed by a strong bullish breakout, confirming upside strength and clearing previous highs.
📈 2x Channel Supply Zone — Now Demand:
After breaking above the triangle, the price surged into a key supply zone, created from a prior channel top.
This zone was tested, absorbed, and flipped into a new demand zone, as buyers overwhelmed sellers.
This supply-demand interchange confirmed a structural change in market sentiment.
🚀 2. Momentum Confirmation — High Breakout:
The "High Breaked" level, marked clearly on the chart, acted as a bullish breakout trigger.
This breakout not only breached the prior resistance but established a new bullish leg—providing strong confirmation of trend continuation.
🔁 3. QFL Zone & Controlled Pullback:
After the surge, the price began to correct from the QFL (Quick Flip Level).
This level usually represents an area where short-term distribution or profit-taking occurs.
The pullback from this zone was controlled but sharp, which is natural after such a strong move up.
🟩 4. Next Reversal Zone — The Critical Demand Block:
Price is now entering a high-probability reversal zone, marked around $37.5–$36.8.
This area is critical due to:
Confluence with previous structure and minor support.
Potential bullish absorption area.
Last base before the impulse up.
If bullish price action (like bullish engulfing, pin bar, or volume spike) is seen here, it could signal the start of the next leg up.
🧨 5. Key Warning: "If it crosses, this will be Supply Double"
If this zone fails to hold, the demand will flip into double supply, likely accelerating bearish momentum.
In such case, Silver may revisit Major Support near the $36.0–$35.5 zone.
🧭 Potential Trading Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Path (Primary Expectation):
Price reacts from the reversal zone with bullish momentum.
Breaks back into the Central Zone (~$38.5).
Forms a higher low → continuation toward $39.5–$41.0.
Breakout above the recent swing high confirms the continuation pattern.
Trade Idea:
Long entries near $37.2–$37.5 with SL below $36.8.
Target zones: $38.8 (short-term), $39.8–$41.0 (swing).
❌ Bearish Continuation (Alternative Plan):
Reversal zone fails to hold.
Price breaks and closes below $36.8.
Previous support becomes resistance — bearish retest.
Continuation toward $36.0–$35.5 zone.
Trade Idea:
Short on break and retest of $36.8.
SL above the reversal zone.
TP near $35.5 or based on volume exhaustion.
🧠 Market Psychology Insight:
This setup shows a clear institutional playbook:
Accumulation → Breakout → Profit-taking → Retest → Continuation.
If smart money is active, expect defense of the reversal zone followed by a strong bounce.
CADCHF - Sellers still in controlCADCHF has been moving within a reversal structure which could make another swing low to complete this pattern before the next move up.
Good Luck
EURJPY Bullish Breakout with IFC Confirmation | MMC Retest Play🔍 Market Structure & Price Behavior Explanation
🔹 1. Channel Structure and Bearish Trap:
The pair was previously trading within a downward sloping channel, forming lower highs and lower lows. This structure was respected for several sessions, creating a bearish bias for most retail traders.
However, as per Mirror Market Concepts, such channels often act as liquidity traps — designed to build sell-side liquidity before a strong reversal.
🔹 2. IFC Candle Break — Smart Money Confirmation:
A powerful bullish impulse candle (IFC - Institutional-Filled Candle) broke through all previous swing highs formed inside the channel. This is a critical sign that institutional buyers have stepped in and the bearish trend is likely over.
This candle is not just a breakout but also a signature of smart money transitioning the market structure from bearish to bullish. The breakout occurred with high momentum and volume, piercing through the upper channel boundary, invalidating the bearish trend.
📘 Key Note: IFC candles usually represent imbalance, strong directional intent, and are often followed by continuation after retest.
🔹 3. Retesting Phase – Key to Confirmation:
After the breakout, price retested the broken structure, which is now acting as a new demand zone. The retest is clean, holding firmly above minor support — giving confirmation of bullish control.
This zone is also aligned with a QFL (base structure) concept, where price returns to the base before a new leg of the trend begins.
🔹 4. Current Price Action: Building for Next Leg
Price is now consolidating just below the next key reversal zone (marked in green). This zone represents potential supply or resistance.
There are two likely outcomes here:
Rejection at the reversal zone, with a potential pullback before continuation.
Clean break above, followed by "Demand Doubling", where price re-tests this level again, confirming further upside momentum.
In case the second scenario plays out (as marked on the chart), EURJPY could aggressively rally toward 174.400 and beyond.
🔹 5. Demand Zones & Key Levels:
✅ Minor Demand Zone (~173.00):
Currently respected — origin of last bullish move.
✅ Major Demand Zone (~171.200):
Acts as macro support in case of deep retracement.
✅ Reversal Zone (~173.800 – 174.200):
Price may slow down, reject, or consolidate here. Smart money usually decides at this level.
📈 MMC Trading Plan (Mirror Market Concept Approach):
Buy Bias is active as long as price remains above the minor demand zone.
Any rejection from reversal zone with wick traps followed by bullish engulfing setups = potential long entries.
Break & hold above 174.200 will likely trigger momentum-based entries, targeting extended bullish continuation.
💹 Trade Setup Parameters:
📥 Entry #1: After successful retest and bullish confirmation at demand
🛑 Stop Loss: Below retest structure (~172.850)
🎯 Take Profit 1: 173.950 (within reversal zone)
🎯 Take Profit 2: 174.350+ (post-demand doubling continuation)
🧠 Trader’s Mindset – What to Expect Next:
The chart is a classic example of MMC in real-time, where:
Price traps sellers inside a fake bearish channel
Breaks structure using high-volume impulsive moves
Retests demand zone cleanly
Builds up toward the next decision-making zone
Patience is key here. Let price either break and confirm above the reversal zone or give us another deep retest for the best R:R long setup.
TONUSDT Analysis – Trendline Breakout | Liquidity| Arc + Target📈 Chart Summary:
The TONUSDT 30-minute chart presents a clean smart-money setup after a trendline breakout, volume absorption, and liquidity fill, supported by a beautifully formed ARC accumulation pattern. This structure hints at institutional involvement and a strategic roadmap for the next probable moves.
🔎 Technical Components Breakdown
1️⃣ Trendline Breakout – Shift in Structure
Price had been following a descending trendline with multiple touches, establishing bearish market structure.
Eventually, that trendline was violently broken to the upside, signaling a change in character (CHOCH) – one of the first signs of a potential bullish reversal.
The breakout candle was strong, with a wide body and notable bullish volume. This often indicates institutional interest or engineered breakout via a stop-hunt.
2️⃣ Volume Absorption – Smart Money Accumulation
After the breakout, the price didn't immediately rally. Instead, it consolidated with wicks on both sides – a sign of volume absorption.
This is where smart money absorbs opposing orders, typically absorbing sellers before a larger directional move.
This consolidation confirmed the idea of liquidity engineering – they trap liquidity (shorts) and use it as fuel.
3️⃣ Liquidity Filled – Stop Hunt Behavior
A sharp wick into previous highs grabbed resting liquidity, filling orders and sweeping stop losses.
This action invalidated weak resistance, setting up the platform for a larger move.
🧠 Conceptual Structure – ARC Play & Reversal Dynamics
✅ ARC Formation – Rounded Accumulation Base
The light green arc highlights the rounded bottom, a common technical pattern representing accumulation over time.
This kind of base often indicates that smart money is building positions silently, especially after a significant downtrend.
In this context, the ARC acts as a dynamic support, and the structure mimics the reversal of market sentiment from bearish to bullish.
🌀 FMFR Zone – “First Move Fake, Then Reversal”
Labeled FMFR zone between 3.22–3.26 signifies a potential trap setup.
The expectation is a manipulated downward move (fakeout) that will be quickly reversed, catching breakout sellers off-guard.
Smart traders can use this as a high-probability re-entry zone by waiting for wick rejection, engulfing candles, or bullish divergences.
📍 Short-Term Targets & Zones
🟩 Next Mini Reversal Zone – 3.38 to 3.42
This is a probable area for minor pullback or distribution, especially for scalpers or short-term trades.
Price may stall here due to earlier supply and psychological round levels.
🟦 Remaining Liquidity Zones – 3.55 to 3.63
Higher timeframe liquidity remains uncollected above.
If bullish momentum continues with support from volume and structure, expect price to sweep these levels next.
These zones are ideal for medium-term swing targets.
🧾 Trade Setup Idea (Not Financial Advice)
Item Details
Entry On rejection/confirmation within FMFR zone (3.22–3.26)
Stop-Loss Below arc support or structural low (3.18 area)
TP1 3.38 (Mini reversal zone)
TP2 3.55 (Liquidity target 1)
TP3 3.63+ (Extended target)
📘 Market Psychology in Action
Fear/Greed Play: Initial selloff invited fear, smart money accumulates quietly via the arc. Fakeout traps greed and late shorts.
Trap-Reversal Model: FMFR zones exploit retail stops, offering entries for institutional players.
Liquidity Mapping: The chart clearly maps how price is attracted to uncollected liquidity zones – a classic order flow approach.
BTCUSD Analysis : Channel Break + QFL Setup | Structure Analysis📊 Chart Overview
This 2H BTCUSD chart reveals a comprehensive view of market behavior transitioning from a phase of consolidation into a potential breakout or further rejection. The price action is analyzed inside a parallel channel, transitioning into a curved resistance path, which is currently governing the market structure.
🔵 Phase 1: Consolidation Inside a Straight Channel
Price has respected a clear ascending channel (highlighted in blue) from July 16 to July 24.
This phase shows a range-bound movement with defined supply and demand zones.
Labelled as “Straight Channel or Consolidation”, this represents a potential accumulation/distribution zone.
The Channel Previous Supply Interchange marks an important S/R flip zone, now serving as a key reference for future reactions.
🔻 Phase 2: Break of Structure & Curved Resistance
Price broke down below the channel support and is now respecting a downward curved trendline.
This indicates a shift in momentum from neutral to bearish, forming lower highs.
A sharp drop occurred post-channel exit, marking a QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) area—hinting at smart money involvement or liquidation hunt.
🔁 Reversal Scenarios & Key Levels
There are two possible future paths visualized:
🟥 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
Price respects the curved trendline, failing to break resistance.
A rejection near the current region (~117.5k) could lead price back toward:
Central Zone Reversal near 115,000 USD
Further into the 100% Reversal Zone (green zone) near 113,500–114,000 USD
Ideal for short entries after clear rejection confirmations.
🟩 Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout
Price breaks and sustains above the curved resistance.
Temporary resistance seen at Minor level (~120,000 USD), followed by Major resistance near 121,000 USD.
This scenario requires bullish volume and reclaim of structure, invalidating the short bias.
🧠 Strategic Viewpoint & Trade Mindset
Market is at a decision point—either confirming a bearish rejection from dynamic resistance or invalidating it for a bullish reversal.
Patience is key; wait for either:
A failed breakout attempt (short opportunity), or
A confirmed breakout and retest (long opportunity).
Use lower timeframes (15m–1h) for execution once direction is confirmed.
XAUUSD Analysis : Reversal Zone & Trendline Break Setup 🧠 Market Breakdown (Based on MMC Concepts)
Gold (XAU/USD) recently touched an All-Time High, followed by a sharp correction respecting a clean descending trendline — confirming strong selling pressure in the short term.
After price completed a Channel Supply zone (highlighted), it dropped significantly and created a 2x Supply Structure along with a QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) — a strong indication of liquidity engineering by smart money.
Now, price has entered the Major Reversal Zone, which aligns with a key minor structural demand level. The reaction here becomes highly important, as it could mark the beginning of a new bullish leg.
📌 Technical Conditions
Trendline (Condition 1): Still active; breakout confirmation required for bullish entry.
Reversal Zone (Demand Area): Price currently reacting; signs of rejection forming.
Smart Money Behavior: Liquidity sweep + QFL zone = potential institutional accumulation.
Momentum Watch: Look for bullish engulfing or strong pin bar as confirmation.
🎯 Price Levels to Watch
Upside Targets:
🔹 TP1: 3,360 – 3,380
🔹 TP2: 3,420 – 3,440
Invalidation Zone:
🔻 Break and close below 3,300 = bearish continuation likely.
💡 Conclusion
Gold is approaching a decision point. If this reversal zone holds and we break the trendline, we could see a strong rally back toward previous supply zones. However, failure to hold could bring price lower for further liquidity grabs.
Stay patient. Let price confirm.
Charts Speak #Sharada Cropchem
Sharada Cropchem
Charts always lead the News! This is yet another example where price was leading & News came later.
Stock was under accumulation since June with higher qty. In fact since May 25, it was getting bought in average 2-3M qty weekly. What a planned buying..
28th May, 4 June, 18th July were nice buying alarms for us. Today it was just a final nail in the coffin.
USDJPY Analysis : Smart Money Setup & MMC Concept + Target📌 Chart Overview:
This 4H USDJPY chart presents a multi-phase market structure analysis rooted in MMC (Major-Minor-Central) framework, Smart Money Concepts (SMC), and liquidity mapping. The price is currently trading around 147.39, and the chart outlines two possible scenarios labeled 1 (bullish continuation) and 2 (bearish rejection).
🔍 Key Zones & Technical Elements Explained:
🔹 1. 2x Supply Zone (Support Reaction)
Price rebounded sharply from the double-tested demand zone marked around 146.00–146.50.
This zone has historical significance and has acted as a base for previous bullish momentum.
The sharp V-shaped recovery suggests strong buying interest at institutional levels, hinting at a potential bullish continuation.
🔹 2. QFL (Quick Flip Liquidity) Zone
A notable zone where previous bullish structure broke down. It’s now being retested from below.
The QFL structure acts as a hidden supply zone or potential liquidity trap.
Watch for price rejection here, especially if it aligns with liquidity sweep patterns.
🔹 3. Minor & Major Structural Levels
Minor zone: A smaller consolidation and reaction zone—used to observe minor trend shifts or scaling entries.
Major zone: Sitting around 148.50–149.00, this is your Next Reversal Zone. It overlaps with a historical resistance area and could lead to a significant reaction.
📈 Projected Scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Price breaks above the Central Zone and holds.
After breaching the minor resistance, it climbs towards the Major Reversal Zone (148.50–149.00).
There, we look for:
Either a reversal trade setup (liquidity grab + bearish confirmation).
Or continuation beyond 149.00, especially if supported by USD strength/fundamentals.
🚫 Scenario 2: Bearish Rejection
Price fails to hold above the Central Zone.
Rejection at QFL or Minor levels sends the pair back into the mid-147s and potentially down to retest the 2x Supply Zone again.
Breakdown from there could lead to a move towards 145.50–146.00, forming a potential double bottom or deeper retracement.
🧩 Technical Insights Summary:
Trend Context: Short-term bullish recovery from demand, but macro trend still uncertain.
Key Confluence:
2x Supply → Strong demand.
QFL + Central → Key breakout/rejection zones.
Major Zone → High-probability reversal area.
Bias: Neutral to Bullish, favoring Scenario 1 if price sustains above 147.50.
Watch for:
Candlestick rejections in Major Zone.
Break-and-retest behavior in Central Zone.
USD-related news near July 30–31 (highlighted below chart).
BTCUSD Analysis (MMC) – Bearish Flow Toward Reversal ZoneThis 30-minute BTCUSD chart highlights a well-structured bearish movement following the MMC (Mirror Market Concepts) framework. The analysis centers around the Black Mind Curve, multiple QFL drops, and supply/demand imbalances, presenting a professional outlook on current price action and potential reversals.
🧠 Black Mind Curve – Mapping Market Psychology
The Black Mind Curve is a visual representation of the market’s psychological behavior and serves as a dynamic resistance throughout this structure. Price respected the curvature, slowly losing bullish strength while forming lower highs.
This curve mirrors a distribution phase, where smart money unloads long positions before initiating a downside move.
Your annotation: “After Break Curve Line Will Go Bullish” implies that unless the curve is cleanly broken with strong bullish conviction, the bias remains bearish.
So far, the price is respecting the curve, reinforcing sellers’ control.
🔵 2x Supply Zone – Aggressive Selling Region
The supply zone is tested twice, confirming the presence of institutional-level sellers. This zone becomes critical because:
First touch: Minor reaction, but no follow-through.
Second touch: Strong rejection with extended downside move.
The double rejection clearly shows that buyers are trapped, fueling bearish momentum.
From an MMC view, this confirms the beginning of the “Mirror Market Shift” — where smart money rotates out of longs and traps retail longs near resistance.
📉 QFL (Quick Flip Liquidity) Events – Momentum Crashes
Two major QFL-based breakdowns appear in the chart after price consolidated within ranges. These drops are essential to understand:
QFL reflects market structure breaks where liquidity is engineered, and a sharp sell-off follows.
The first QFL drop occurs after the curve-resistance rejection, and the second confirms continuation.
These are liquidity runs, used to clear stop-losses and maintain bearish pressure.
This creates a domino effect — each QFL level becomes a signal of deeper imbalance.
⚠️ Central Zone – No Bullish Pattern Detected
The Central Zone marks a temporary support or midpoint level — a place where price might find footing if buyers show up.
However, as you noted:
“We Can See No Bullish Pattern On Central Zone”
No bullish engulfing candle.
No pin bar rejection.
No spike in volume.
No market structure shift.
This confirms that buyers are either weak or absent in this zone. MMC traders use this info to stay with the dominant trend (bearish) until proven otherwise.
🟩 Next Reversal Zone – 114,157.68 (Critical Demand Zone)
The green zone marked as “Next Reversal Zone” is a key level to monitor:
This area aligns with historical demand, where BTC previously reversed or slowed down.
Price is likely to hunt liquidity below recent lows before a potential bullish reaction.
It’s a Smart Money zone — designed to trap breakout sellers and absorb volume for a reversal.
Traders should watch for:
Bullish engulfing patterns
Break of structure to the upside
Divergence with RSI/volume
Sweep and reclaim setup
Once the price enters this zone, MMC reversal tactics come into play — buyers may step in aggressively here.
📅 Fundamentals & Timing
At the bottom of the chart, we see upcoming U.S. economic news events, which can act as volatility catalysts. Price could reach the reversal zone just before or during high-impact news, which aligns perfectly with smart money manipulation.
Be cautious of fakeouts around news time.
Confirmation is key before entry.
🧭 Final Outlook & MMC Strategy
Trend Direction: Bearish until 114,157.68 zone is hit.
Momentum Drivers: QFL drops, strong rejection from 2x supply, absence of bullish signals.
Key Watch Level: 114,157.68 – wait for MMC reversal pattern here.
Invalidation: If price breaks and closes above the Black Mind Curve with volume.
📌 Trade Idea Summary (For Caption Use):
BTCUSD respecting MMC Black Mind Curve. 2x Supply Zone triggered QFL breakdowns. No bullish confirmation at Central Zone. Eyes on Next Reversal Block near 114,157.68. Watch for reaction and potential reversal setup. #SmartMoneyMoves
Today's GOLD Analysis (MMC) – Sell Bias Continues To Next TargetChart Overview:
This 2-hour GOLD (XAU/USD) chart showcases a clear bearish structure in line with the Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) methodology. Price action is respecting key supply zones and continues to reject significant levels, confirming the dominance of sellers in the short-term structure.
🔍 Key Technical Elements:
1️⃣ Break of Trendline (MMC QFL Entry Model)
The descending grey trendline marks consistent lower highs, showing clear bearish pressure. The breakout and rejections around this trendline zone (annotated “1”) confirm it as a strong supply area. This breakdown set the stage for a QFL (Quick Flip Liquidity) drop.
🧊 2x Supply Zone (High Confidence Rejection)
The 2x supply label highlights an area where price rapidly reversed with aggressive bearish momentum. This zone was tested and respected again, leading to further downside pressure, reinforcing the idea of institutional selling interest from that level.
📉 QFL Levels & Central Zone
Two major QFL drops are evident, where price broke previous demand structures and created new supply imbalance. The Central Zone currently acts as short-term support, but price is hovering just above it with weak bullish reaction, indicating potential for further breakdown.
🎯 Target & Reversal Zone – 3,331.90
The green zone below marks the Next Reversal Zone, with a highlighted price target at 3,331.90. This is where:
Previous liquidity was absorbed.
Demand imbalance may attract buyers again.
MMC reversal structures might be anticipated.
This zone aligns perfectly with the broader MMC concept of flipping between major zones and reversal blocks.
🧠 Trade Idea & Strategy (MMC Traders’ Minds)
Current Bias: Bearish
Entry Trigger: After rejection from trendline & 2x supply area.
Stop-Loss Suggestion: Above the trendline or recent supply wick (~3,375-3,380).
Take-Profit Zone: Primary TP at 3,331.90, with eyes on lower reversal targets if momentum persists.
Market Behavior: Controlled by sellers, liquidity sweeps seen, weak demand below Central Zone.
📌 Key Events to Watch
As marked at the bottom, major US news events are scheduled between July 30th and 31st, which could act as catalysts for price acceleration toward the reversal zone or cause sharp volatility. Plan accordingly.
🧭 Conclusion:
Gold is respecting bearish market structure under the MMC model. With clear QFL breakouts, rejection from 2x Supply, and weak bullish attempts near the Central Zone, this chart favors short setups targeting the 3,331.90 zone. MMC traders should monitor price action closely within the Reversal Zone for potential buy signals or trend continuation if sellers remain aggressive.
USDJPY Structure Analysis – Liquidity Filled, Rejection + Target🧠 Overview:
This 2-hour chart of USDJPY highlights a clear bearish structure following a smart money-driven move. The price action reflects market maker behavior, liquidity manipulation, trendline rejections, and strategic zone targeting. Let's break down the key elements for today’s USDJPY analysis.
🔍 Key Technical Breakdown:
1. 🏦 Liquidity Grab & Fill (July 17th)
The marked green zone shows an aggressive liquidity sweep where the price dipped sharply into a previous demand zone, triggering stop losses and collecting institutional orders.
This movement represents a classic "liquidity fill", often engineered by market makers to trap retail buyers/sellers.
After sweeping liquidity, price quickly reversed upwards — a signal that large buy orders were triggered and filled.
2. 🎯 Central Zone as a Distribution Region
The market retraced to the "Central Zone", highlighted on the chart, which acted as a distribution area:
Price consolidated and created indecision before rejecting sharply again.
This zone reflects a short-term supply where institutional players may have offloaded positions.
Key clue: This consolidation occurred below the major trendline, increasing its strength as resistance.
3. 🔻 QFL Zones (Quasimodo Failure Levels)
Two QFL levels are marked, which denote structure breaks and retracements in MMC/SMC strategy:
First QFL marks a major support break – a signal of shifting market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
Second QFL confirms continued lower lows formation – solidifying bearish market structure.
These levels are critical in identifying market intent and anticipating future moves.
4. 📉 Descending Trendline Rejection
The descending trendline drawn from recent highs is being respected continuously:
Price tested the trendline multiple times but failed to break above.
These rejections represent seller dominance and validate the trendline as a dynamic resistance.
A break above this line would invalidate the current bearish structure.
5. 🎯 Next Target – Major Demand Zone (145.00–145.20)
Price is heading toward a major demand zone marked in green around 145.000:
This area is a strong buy-side liquidity zone, where institutional buyers may show interest again.
If this zone is tapped, we may see either:
A bounce (bullish reaction), or
A breakdown and continuation lower if bearish momentum continues.
Traders should monitor this area closely for price action signals (engulfing candles, rejection wicks, or bullish divergence).
🧠 Strategic View:
Bias: Bearish, unless trendline breaks with strong volume.
Ideal Entry: Look for short entries on lower timeframe pullbacks into minor resistance (like trendline or last supply zone).
Target Area: 145.00 – ideal zone to book profits or switch bias.
Invalidation: A break and close above the descending trendline + central zone.
🔑 Confluences in This Analysis:
Concept Details
✅ Liquidity Grab Trap & Fill strategy at prior lows
✅ Central Zone Bearish distribution and rejection
✅ Trendline Repeated resistance rejections
✅ Structure Lower lows and QFL confirmations
✅ Target Area Clear next demand zone identified
⚠️ Risk Note:
As always, wait for confirmation before entering trades. The market may fake out near zones. Use proper risk management (1-2% risk per trade) and adjust your strategy as new candles form.
📌 Conclusion:
This chart paints a textbook scenario of how institutional movements and structure-based analysis (MMC/SMC) can offer high-probability setups. We expect further downside toward the 145.00 region before any significant reversal. Keep an eye on reaction from this demand zone for the next play.
GOLD Analysis : SR Interchange , Reversal Zone + High Break🧠 Market Context & Structural Overview:
Gold has been trading within a clearly defined bullish structure after forming a rounded base pattern in early July, indicating accumulation by smart money. The market recently broke through a key horizontal resistance (previous swing high), marking a potential bullish continuation phase. However, we are now witnessing a pullback — a healthy corrective phase — that is currently testing multiple high-probability confluences.
🧱 Key Technical Zones Explained:
🔹 1. SR Interchange Zone – High Probability Reversal Area:
This area (roughly between $3,360 and $3,380) acted as previous resistance (supply) and has now flipped into support.
This is a textbook Support-Resistance Interchange (SR Flip) — a concept where prior resistance becomes new support.
Traders often look for entries here, especially when it aligns with other technical factors.
🔹 2. Curve Line Support – Dynamic Buyer Strength Indicator:
A curved trendline, often referred to as a parabolic support, has been respecting price structure for over two weeks.
Price is now sitting exactly on this support, signaling potential for another impulsive bullish leg if momentum builds.
🔹 3. Supply Zone Completed – Correction Phase Active:
The supply zone above (approx. $3,420–$3,440) has already been tapped and respected by the market.
This “completed” supply may now act as resistance unless broken with strong volume — we now watch how price reacts at the current pullback zone.
📊 What the Candles Are Telling Us:
The latest candles show some hesitation from sellers — wick rejections and smaller body candles hint at buyer interest at this level. However, confirmation is crucial. We want to see a bullish reversal pattern such as:
Bullish engulfing
Morning star
Pin bar (hammer)
Break and retest of minor resistance inside the SR zone
🔮 Scenarios to Watch:
✅ Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Ideal Setup):
If a bullish reversal forms at this support zone:
Expect a potential rally back to the $3,420–$3,440 resistance area.
If this zone breaks with high volume, price could target the major supply zone near $3,465+, where we’ll need “Needed Volume” for a decisive break.
⚠️ Scenario 2 – Bearish Breakdown (Alternative View):
If the curve support and SR zone fail to hold:
Expect a drop towards $3,345 – $3,320 — where next structural support lies.
This would suggest a deeper retracement or range formation before bulls can regroup.
🧩 Strategy & Psychology:
“We want bullish pattern here.”
You’ve highlighted the importance of not entering impulsively. This is about trading with confirmation, not prediction. Waiting for a valid bullish pattern reduces risk and increases probability.
This is where smart traders win — waiting patiently for confirmation at a zone of confluence.
🧠 Learning Mindset – Why This Zone Matters:
Combines horizontal support, curved trendline, and broken structure retest.
This zone is the battleground between bulls and bears — whoever wins here will likely control short-term momentum.
Newer traders can study this as a classic example of multi-confluence trading, which combines price action, market structure, and dynamic trendlines.
EURGBP Analysis : Curve Breakdown + Directional Setup + Target🧠 Institutional Context & Smart Money Bias
This EURGBP chart offers a masterclass in engineered liquidity and market traps. Institutions have created an illusion of bullish strength through:
A manipulated rounded accumulation curve
A controlled channel phase
A false breakout above the reversal zone
These are textbook signals that the retail crowd is being misled, while smart money is preparing for a deeper move. Let’s dissect it step by step.
📊 Phase-by-Phase Technical Breakdown
🔻 1. Bearish Channel – Sentiment Shaping Phase
From July 11 to July 21, the pair traded within a descending parallel channel, forming a bearish market structure.
This phase was not a genuine trend, but a sentiment builder—to:
Create a belief in continued bearishness
Gather liquidity around the channel boundaries
The upper and lower bounds of the channel were respected precisely, revealing market maker intent.
📈 2. Parabolic Curve Support – Trap Engineered
Price transitioned out of the channel into a rounded bullish curve—a visual cue suggesting accumulation and strength.
This curved trendline often misleads retail traders into thinking a breakout rally is coming.
Price surged aggressively toward the Previous Reversal Zone, further fueling FOMO buys.
But this move was not sustainable. Why?
➡️ Because it lacked a clean base and was built off a manipulated liquidity sweep. The curve was a setup.
🟥 3. Previous Reversal Zone & Major BOS – Institutional Exit Point
Price entered the Previous Reversal Zone, a marked area of prior supply.
This is where institutional orders were likely resting.
After briefly exceeding the previous high, the market instantly reversed with force—evidence of:
Stop hunts
Distribution
Smart money selling into retail breakout buyers
The Major BOS (Break of Structure) confirms the shift: The trend is no longer bullish.
⚠️ 4. Curve Support Breakdown – Structure Shift Triggered
After peaking, the price violated the curve support, confirming the bullish trap.
This breakdown signals a phase transition:
From accumulation illusion → distribution reality
From retail optimism → smart money unloading
🟨 5. Central Zone – Decision Point
Price is now hovering at the Central Zone, a region of equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
This is where market makers may:
Redistribute for another leg down
Fake a pullback before continuing lower
Temporarily rally to trap more longs
This area will determine short-term directional bias. That’s why your setup smartly outlines two conditions from this point.
🔀 Trade Scenarios – MMC Conditions
🔻 Condition 1: Bearish Continuation Toward Next Reversal Zone
If the price rejects the Central Zone and begins forming lower highs and bearish structures:
Expect further downside
This confirms the market is in redistribution mode
Target: Next Reversal Zone at 0.8630–0.8640
💡 Rationale: Institutions are driving price back into demand zones to grab new liquidity or fill leftover buy orders.
🔁 Condition 2: Temporary Recovery & Trap Continuation
If price holds above the Central Zone and breaks short-term highs:
A short-term bullish rally may occur
Likely targets: 0.8675–0.8685
This may act as a fake-out rally, creating more buying interest before a deeper dump
💡 Rationale: Smart money may induce more buyers to create fresh liquidity pockets before dropping toward the next reversal zone.
🔐 Key MMC Zones & Structure Levels
Zone/Level Purpose
0.8695–0.8700 Previous Reversal Zone / Major BOS – Institutional distribution area
0.8660–0.8665 Central Zone – Mid-point equilibrium & battle zone
0.8630–0.8640 Next Reversal Zone – Potential bullish interest area for demand
🧠 Smart Money Summary
This chart showcases a multi-stage smart money plan:
Create channel to shape bias
Form curve to generate false hope
Push into supply and trap late buyers
Break curve support to shift structure
Retest Central Zone to decide next manipulation leg
Deliver price toward true unfilled demand zones
This is how institutions engineer movement while retail gets trapped chasing direction.
EURUSD Analysis : Liquidity Sweep – EURUSD Targets TO Reversal🧠 Institutional Context & Big Picture
EURUSD has been in a tightly controlled descending channel for several weeks—a classic sign of a market being engineered for liquidity collection. Rather than a naturally trending bearish market, this price action reflects stealth accumulation and market maker manipulation.
The channel structure was used to:
Establish a visible bearish trend (to trap sellers)
Trigger emotional bias for continued shorting
Build up stop orders below swing lows
This phase was about building energy, not continuation.
🔍 Detailed Breakdown of the Chart Elements
📌 1. Descending Channel – Controlled Manipulation
The pair moved within a well-defined bearish channel for multiple weeks.
Each touch respected the top and bottom perfectly—not random, but institutional structure.
It fostered retail confidence in the downtrend while market makers prepared for a reversal.
💥 2. Liquidity Sweep & Trap (Low Breaked & Liquidity Grabbed)
Price spiked below the previous low, clearly sweeping liquidity on July 21.
This is the "engineered breakdown", meant to trigger breakout sellers and stop out early longs.
Immediately after the sweep, the price violently reversed—clear evidence of a liquidity trap.
This is classic MMC logic: induce, trap, reverse.
🟩 3. QFL Base Formed – Bullish Engine Ignited
At the point of reversal, the chart shows the formation of a QFL (Qualified Liquidation Failure) zone.
This QFL base is the core of smart money accumulation—price broke below a base, then quickly reclaimed it.
It's not just support—it’s the true origin of the reversal and an optimal entry point.
📈 4. Breakout from the Channel – Structure Shift Confirmed
Price broke out of the descending channel with strong momentum, confirming:
Structure shift from lower lows → higher highs
Momentum shift in favor of bulls
Entry confirmation for MMC-based long setups
This breakout invalidates the bearish trend and signals a fresh leg up, likely toward unmitigated supply zones.
🟨 5. Current Price Action – Healthy Bullish Consolidation
After the breakout, price is consolidating just above the broken channel, forming a mini-flag or base.
This indicates:
Smart money is accumulating more
No significant selling pressure
Likely continuation toward next supply
🎯 6. Next Targets – Reversal Zones
Minor Resistance: ~1.1800
Major Resistance: ~1.1850 – 1.1880
Next Reversal Zone: 1.1900–1.1950
This zone is highlighted as a potential sell-off area where institutions may offload positions or create new traps.
Watch for signs of exhaustion or redistribution here.
📌 Trade Plan Based on MMC Structure
✅ Bullish Scenario (Currently Active)
Entry Area: Ideally at QFL base or breakout retest (~1.1700–1.1720 zone)
Confirmation: Bullish price action (engulfing, flag break, or liquidity wick)
Targets:
🎯 TP1: 1.1800
🎯 TP2: 1.1850
🎯 TP3: 1.1950 (Reversal Supply Zone)
❌ Invalidation:
A break below the QFL base (~1.1670) with bearish volume would invalidate the bullish MMC structure.
🧠 Smart Money Insight & Logic Recap
This entire move reflects a classic Market Maker Strategy:
Build a trend (descending channel) to shape trader bias
Trigger liquidity events (false breakdown)
Accumulate at the lows via QFL logic
Shift structure (channel breakout)
Target unfilled institutional supply (1.1850–1.1950)
This isn’t random—it’s engineered movement. Your job as a trader is to identify footprints, not follow the crowd.
USDJPY 2H Analysis : Trendline Break or Double the Supply?🧠 Market Context:
The market has recently undergone a liquidity grab followed by a temporary bullish reaction, indicating that large players (institutions or market makers) are manipulating price around sensitive zones before committing to a direction.
🧱 Key Technical Zones & Observations:
🟩 1. Liquidity Filled Zone (Smart Money Move)
Location: Around July 17.
Explanation: Price dropped impulsively into a pre-marked liquidity pocket. This filled buy-side liquidity resting below previous lows.
Implication: Smart money has now captured trapped breakout sellers. Expectation of reversal or bullish mitigation.
🟧 2. Central Zone (Supply/Distribution Area)
This zone was tested multiple times, signaling it as a supply-rich region.
Acted as a base for previous strong bearish move.
If the trendline is broken, price may retest this Central Zone, potentially acting as resistance again.
🟩 3. QFL Formation (Quantity Following Line)
Nature: Base breakout with a fast snap-back indicates institutional demand.
The structure signals a failed breakdown or liquidation trap.
Actionable Insight: Strong bounce potential here, ideal for sniper long entries if market structure shifts bullish.
🟦 4. Trendline (Critical Validation Tool)
The descending trendline from July 18 has acted as dynamic resistance.
Multiple rejections validate its significance.
Main Conditional Setup hinges on this trendline:
Break = Bullish structure shift
No break = Trend continuation (retest of demand or breakdown)
🔁 5. Previous Reversal Completed
Price action has printed a reversal model (possibly Wyckoff-style accumulation or spring).
Completion of the pattern aligns with upcoming directional decision.
✅ Conditional Trade Scenarios:
🔺 Condition 1: Bullish Breakout Above Trendline
Setup: Price breaks and closes above the trendline with volume and momentum.
Action: Buy on retest of broken trendline or confirmation candle.
Targets:
Short-term: 147.50
Major: 148.00 – strong resistance/supply zone
Validation: Structure shift + momentum + rejection of prior supply.
🔻 Condition 2: Rejection from Trendline (Trendline Holds)
Setup: Price respects the trendline and fails to break.
Action: Short on bearish engulfing/rejection.
Plan: "Double the supply zone" as per your label.
Targets: 146.20 → 146.00 zone
This respects the previous price memory and liquidity void.
🧠 Deeper MMC Insight:
The market is in indecision phase, balancing between continuation and reversal.
Institutional footprints (QFL + liquidity fills + trendline rejections) suggest preparation for a trap-spring-accumulate or distribution-breakdown move.
Watch for fakeouts around the trendline – MMC logic says market makers often induce both directions before committing.
🧭 Trade Management Tips:
If long: Protect below the QFL base.
If short: Watch for manipulation around the Central Zone.
Wait for confirmation: Don’t pre-enter before structure validates direction.
Apple (AAPL) — Expected 20% GrowthThe fundamental outlook for Apple stock remains positive: the upcoming fall presentation and anticipated AI-related announcements are driving bullish sentiment.
Technical picture:
The price has broken through a key trendline, signaling a shift in momentum toward growth.
Near-term target: a move toward the 225.0 level.
Next step: a possible pullback to 214.0 for a retest of the support level.
Long-term scenario: after the correction, I expect a rise toward 250.0, which could bring approximately 20% growth within 1–2 months.
This growth potential may coincide with Apple’s upcoming earnings report and further AI news.
EURGBP Curved Support Breakout – Targeting Reversal Zone🔍 Market Context & Structural Narrative (MMC Style)
The EURGBP pair is currently displaying a textbook MMC structural evolution, transitioning from a bearish trend into a potential bullish leg driven by curve dynamics and trap-break logic.
🔨 Phase 1: Bearish Channel & Trap Formation
The market initially moved within a clearly defined descending channel, which acted as a trap for reactive sellers. Each lower high and lower low within the channel created a perception of sustained bearishness, luring breakout traders and late sellers into short positions.
✅ Key Insight:
This trap zone represents the first step in MMC logic — create a visible structure, generate bias, then prepare for inversion.
🌙 Phase 2: Curve Support – Psychological Accumulation
Around the base of the channel, the market began forming a rounded bottom or curve support. This is a signature MMC accumulation pattern, where market makers gradually absorb sell orders and build long positions without triggering immediate attention.
The curve support has the following implications:
Represents passive accumulation.
Suggests waning bearish pressure.
Builds bullish pressure subtly, often missed by retail traders.
🧠 MMC Mindset Tip:
Curved price action isn't just technical — it's psychological. It represents a controlled shift in sentiment, not an impulsive change, which is what makes it so powerful.
💥 Phase 3: Break of Structure (BOS) – Confirmation of Strength
Price breaks out of both the descending channel and the curved base, leading to a Major Break of Structure (BOS). This BOS is critical, as it confirms the invalidity of the previous bearish narrative and activates a new bullish leg.
📌 This BOS is more than a line — it’s a wall of liquidity getting broken. Price has now closed above key swing highs, which suggests:
Smart money is in control.
Trend shift is validated.
New demand zone created below.
🎯 Projection: The Path to the Next Reversal Zone (NRZ)
Following the breakout, price is projected to:
Possibly retest the breakout level (structure retest) aligned with the curve support — a healthy bullish pullback.
Then move higher towards the Next Reversal Zone (NRZ), which is your defined target area.
📌 NRZ Insight:
This zone is where the market is likely to face:
High liquidity.
Strong previous supply.
Potential profit-taking by early bulls.
Thus, this becomes the make-or-break zone — price either:
Reverses sharply,
Or breaks through and continues the bull rally.
⚠️ Multiple Scenarios Based on MMC Conditions
✅ Scenario 1: Retest & Bounce (Ideal MMC Setup)
Price pulls back to retest the breakout level or the curve support.
Shows bullish confirmation (e.g., pin bar, bullish engulfing).
Targets the NRZ above 0.8700.
❌ Scenario 2: Failed Retest – Fakeout Trap
Price breaks below the curve and structure again.
Suggests that the BOS was a false breakout.
Could re-enter the previous bearish channel structure.
🔄 Scenario 3: Direct Rally Without Retest
Strong momentum buyers push price directly to NRZ.
Wait for reaction at NRZ — could trigger a reversal or continuation depending on price behavior.
🧠 MMC Strategic Takeaways:
Trap → Break → Shift is the psychological framework in play.
The curve is not just support — it's evidence of silent accumulation.
The NRZ isn’t just resistance — it's the battleground where MM logic resolves.
🔐 Trading Insights (Optional Entry Ideas):
Entry: On bullish confirmation near 0.8660–0.8665 (curve/structure support).
SL: Below curve base (e.g., 0.8640).
TP: Near or slightly below NRZ (0.8700–0.8705), partial profits or full exit.
USDJPY Analysis : Trendline Breakout, Liquidity Trap & MMC Zone🔍 Full Technical Breakdown:
In today’s USDJPY 2H chart, the market is unfolding exactly as per Mirror Market Concepts (MMC). We’ve identified a clean trendline breakout, and now price is reacting between the Central Zone (50%) and the Next Reversal Zone, where liquidity is expected to be filled. Let's break down each zone and movement to understand how price is being manipulated and where we can take action.
🔵 1. Trendline Confirmation – The First Sign of Strength
The trendline was tested multiple times from the top, acting as resistance. But recently, price broke above this line with strength, signaling a potential bullish reversal. You've rightly marked it as "Trendline Confirmation" — this is where structure shifted from bearish to bullish.
This is a classic MMC principle — breakout above manipulated resistance, followed by a pullback for re-entry.
The breakout wasn’t just a wick; it had body strength, indicating real buyer presence.
Now, price is pulling back to retest the trendline from above, a typical MMC behavior before continuing upward.
⚖️ 2. Central Zone – The 50% Trap
This zone represents the midpoint of the last major impulsive move. It's where most traders get confused, and institutions re-balance their entries.
You've highlighted: “It Can Reverse From Its 50% Zone” – and that’s accurate.
According to MMC, this is where smart money traps late sellers, takes liquidity, and initiates the next bullish leg.
If price holds above the 147.200–147.500 zone, we could see buyers stepping in aggressively.
🟩 3. Liquidity Fill – Next Reversal Zone
If price doesn’t hold the Central Zone, we don’t panic — this is where MMC becomes powerful.
Beneath current structure lies liquidity — previous stop hunts and unfilled orders.
That area is your Next Reversal Zone around 146.200–146.400.
It’s a liquidity trap — market might dip there just to manipulate emotional traders, then reverse with force.
This is exactly where you’ve written “Liquidity Will Fill” — meaning smart money might fill orders there before moving up.
🧭 Possible Price Paths:
🔼 Bullish Scenario (High Probability):
Trendline retest holds as support.
Price bounces from the 50% Central Zone.
Targets: 148.800 – 149.200 (previous highs and clean breakout zone).
Confirmation: Bullish engulfing candle or strong wick rejection at Central Zone.
🔽 Bearish Trap Scenario (MMC-Based):
Price dips below Central Zone into liquidity zone.
Traps sellers and triggers stop-losses.
Reverses sharply from Next Reversal Zone (Liquidity Zone).
This is where smart money positions themselves for the real move up.
🧠 MMC Insight:
This structure is textbook MMC – clean manipulation zones, false breakout traps, and a trending bias powered by smart liquidity plays.
Trendline breakout = initial intent
Central zone = confusion zone
Liquidity trap = entry for smart money
📢 The goal is not to predict, but to react with precision when the market reveals its hand.
🕒 Timeframe: 2H
📌 Strategy: Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) | Trendline + Liquidity + Midpoint Trap
📈 Bias: Bullish, but waiting for confirmation at either Central or Liquidity Zone
🔍 Sentiment: Cautiously Optimistic
Could this dip $5 to $3 be a buy gift before double digits?Could this dip $5🔻$3 be a buy gift before NASDAQ:OPEN goes into double digits on NYSE:GME style vertical squeeze? 🤔
We haven't seen such 1 day volume in years so nobody really knows what's next 👀
Inflation vs. Growth : Is the Fed Behind or Ahead of the Curve?CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! CBOT:ZN1!
Fed Policy recap:
There is an interesting and unusual theme to keep an eye on this week. The Fed is in a ‘blackout period’ until the FOMC meeting- this is a customary quiet period ahead of an FOMC policy meeting. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to give a public talk on Tuesday. Although his address will be focused on the capital framework of the large banks, this appearance will be closely watched for any subtle signals on the FOMC policy stance.
Especially given that last week, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller made a speech, “The Case for Cutting Now” with a purpose as he stated to explain why the FOMC should reduce rate by 25 bps at the July 30th, 2025 meeting.
His stated reasons were:
1. Tariffs create one-off price level increases with transitory inflation effects, not sustained inflation momentum.
2. He argued that much of economic data points towards interest rates should be lowered to FOMC’s participants' median neutral rate, i.e, 3%.
3. His third stated reason notes that while the state of the labor market looks resilient on the surface, accounting for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth has peaked, with more data suggesting increased downside risks.
His speech further explains:
• Growth has decelerated sharply: Real GDP rose only ~1% annualized in 1H25, a significant slowdown from 2.8% in 2H24, and well below long-run potential.
• Consumer spending is weakening, with real PCE growth falling to ~1%, and June retail sales showing soft underlying momentum.
• Broader labor market indicators, including the Beige Book and JOLTS data, show declining labor demand and hiring caution, suggesting increasing downside risks to employment.
• Inflation is slightly above target (PCE ~2.5%) but driven primarily by temporary, one-off tariff effects. Core inflation ex-tariffs is likely near 2%, and expectations remain anchored.
• Current fed funds range (4.25%–4.50%) is well above neutral (3%), implying excessive restraint.
• With inflation risks subdued and macro conditions deteriorating, a preemptive rate cut now provides optionality and avoids falling behind the curve if the slowdown deepens. Further cuts may be warranted if trends persist.
• The tax bill contains pro-growth provisions, but its economic impact is expected to be minimal in 2025.
Source: Federal Reserve Speech, The Case for Cutting Now Governor Waller
Inflation Analysis:
Let’s compare this with what we have previously mentioned regarding inflation. CPI index stood at 257.971 points in January 2020. Projecting this at a 2% Fed target, June 2025 inflation should be around 287.655 points. However, June 2025 inflation is currently at 322.56 index points, 12.2% higher above 2% the inflation trend. Effectively, this means annualized inflation since January 2020 is roughly 4.15%.
The Fed is in a real dilemma whether cutting rates given the inflation trend in the last 5 years and risks to inflation outlook justify cutting rates.
Key Questions to ask
Markets are forward looking. Investors and participants want to know:
• How will the rates impact the cost of debt service? Currently the third largest government expenditure, over $1.03 trillion.
• Will the tariff rate offset the tax revenue losses by extending tax cuts?
• Is the fiscal path sustainable?
• What happens to the long end of the yield-curve?
• Will the Fed monetize the debt issuance imbalance?
• Is this simply Governor Waller positioning himself for the next appointment of Fed Chair when Fed Chair Powell’s term expires in May 2026?
It seems there is a huge conflict between longer term implications vs quick short term fixes that align with US administration objectives.
The Week ahead:
It is a relatively light economic calendar in the US. Flash PMI readings and housing data on the docket. The primary focus as it has been for most weeks since President Trump took office, will be on the developments in trade policy and any further comments on Fed and Chair Powell. The threat of renewed tariffs starting August 1st, is also key to monitor and whether these protectionist measures will force US’s trading partners to make further concessions to negotiate trade deals.
The earnings season is off to a good start with major US banks reporting higher EPS and revenue than expectations. This week investors will be looking at Q2 earnings reports from Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft from the Mag 7 and Tesla.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 18, 2025 GBPUSDSterling is stabilising near 1.34400 after an extended sell‑off, aided by robust labour‑market data: average weekly earnings including bonuses grew 6.1 % y/y and unemployment held at 4 %. The Bank of England signalled that policy easing will be discussed only if employment cools markedly, effectively shutting the door on immediate rate cuts and supporting the pound.
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The external backdrop also favours further gains. Uncertainty over US tariff plans could weaken near‑term dollar demand if Washington misses its 1 August deadline for bilateral agreements. Meanwhile, London is promoting a tech‑and‑defence partnership with the US, reducing pressure on UK exporters and attracting inflows into GBP‑denominated assets.
The 10‑year Gilt‑UST yield gap has narrowed to –75 bp, well above the January trough (‑95 bp), improving the relative appeal of UK bonds. A close above 1.35000 would trigger hedge‑fund demand, and lingering dollar softness, hinted at in the latest FOMC minutes, leaves scope for a run towards 1.35750. A protective stop is placed at 1.33800, just below last week’s intraday pivot.
Trade idea: BUY 1.34400, SL 1.33800, TP 1.35750
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 15, 2025 GBPUSDEvents to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index
23:00 EET. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks
GBPUSD:
Sterling is on the back foot—the rate has dropped toward 1.34500—after the U.S. announced sweeping 30‑percent tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico, triggering capital flows into dollar assets. The pound was further pressured by lacklustre GDP figures: the U.K. economy expanded by only 0.1 % q/q in Q2, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England could cut rates as early as August.
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On the U.S. side, traders await the June CPI print, which is expected to show inflation quickening to 2.7 % y/y. Combined with a resilient labour market, such a reading could deter the Fed from an early policy pivot and lend the dollar extra support. The yield gap and diverging policy trajectories accentuate the downward bias in GBPUSD.
Political risk is likewise working against the pound: talks between London and Brussels on a ‘steel package’ are stalling, and Governor Andrew Bailey’s recent warnings about labour‑market softness underline the BoE’s dovish tilt. As long as the backdrop remains unchanged, the pair can slide toward 1.3350; a rebound above 1.34800 would likely require an unexpectedly soft U.S. inflation print.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.34500, SL 1.34800, TP 1.33500
