Fundamental Market Analysis for November 08, 2024 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today:
17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment
18:00 EET. USD - FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD exchange rate is declining towards 1.07800 due to increased demand for the US dollar during Asian trading hours on Friday. Furthermore, the prospect of increased tariffs under the Trump administration is exerting downward pressure on the euro relative to the US dollar. Analysts anticipate further market movements based on the release of the expanded Michigan consumer sentiment data for November, as well as a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Michelle Bowman on Friday.
As anticipated, the US Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting on Thursday. The US central bank is keen to avoid any further weakening of the labour market and still anticipates a gradual decline in inflation towards the Fed's 2% target. It is anticipated that the Fed will continue to reduce interest rates at forthcoming meetings, although the precise timing remains unclear. The Fed will continue to assess data in order to determine the appropriate pace and direction of interest rate cuts.
Mr. Trump has pledged to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, which has exerted downward pressure on the euro. The European Union has the second-largest trade deficit with the United States in the world and is the largest exporter to the United States, according to JPMorgan.
Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is reducing interest rates at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve. This may result in a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. The ECB has already reduced rates three times this year due to declining inflation risks in the Eurozone. Growing expectations of another rate cut are contributing to the euro's decline in the near term.
Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.08000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
