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Fundamentalanalsysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for November 20, 2024 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks EURUSD: On Tuesday, the EUR/USD was trading between the 1.0550 and 1.06000 levels. It tested the lower boundary but then recovered, adding just 0.14% for the day. The final data on EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation had little impact on market movements, and the greenback will have to settle for a limited release schedule this week. The European core HICP inflation rate remained at 2.0% y/y in October, in line with preliminary data. The data did not generate interest in the euro markets and was not a focus on either side of the bid-ask spread. US data remains inactive until the second half of the trading week, when jobless claims and retail sales data will be released. On Wednesday, ECB President Lagarde will deliver the opening remarks at the ECB's Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy Conference. The ECB finds itself in a challenging position, with European inflation holding firm against initial expectations and the broader European economy displaying a lopsided tilt. The first half of the US trading week will see few economic data releases. On Thursday, average initial jobless claims will be published, which are expected to show a slight increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the week ending 15 November. US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released this week, but will not impact investors until Friday. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.06000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD LONG TRADE IDEAMARKET MAKERS BIAS (CFTC COT INDEX REPORT) >Commercials (Blue Line) - Still at the Bullish zone >Retailers (Red Line) - Still at the Bearish zone (Always Wrong) >Fund Managers (Orange Line) - The Trend Followers, They are rolling over positions and added long positions this week. Value Correlation vs. USD >Oversold (Bullish), The EURO is 98% Negatively Correlated to US Dollar Technical Analysis >Since our bias for the money makers and Value Correlation analysis is Bullish, therefore we use Supply and Demand to look for a reason to be Bullish which is to find a Quality demand zone >Our highlighted Weekly/Daily Demand zone has explosive imbalance candles that could mean there could still be unfilled orders that was not filled before. Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. It reflects general market fundamentals and personal speculation. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trade at your own risk.
Long
by TradersPod
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 08, 2024 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today: 17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment 18:00 EET. USD - FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks EURUSD: The EUR/USD exchange rate is declining towards 1.07800 due to increased demand for the US dollar during Asian trading hours on Friday. Furthermore, the prospect of increased tariffs under the Trump administration is exerting downward pressure on the euro relative to the US dollar. Analysts anticipate further market movements based on the release of the expanded Michigan consumer sentiment data for November, as well as a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Michelle Bowman on Friday. As anticipated, the US Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting on Thursday. The US central bank is keen to avoid any further weakening of the labour market and still anticipates a gradual decline in inflation towards the Fed's 2% target. It is anticipated that the Fed will continue to reduce interest rates at forthcoming meetings, although the precise timing remains unclear. The Fed will continue to assess data in order to determine the appropriate pace and direction of interest rate cuts. Mr. Trump has pledged to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, which has exerted downward pressure on the euro. The European Union has the second-largest trade deficit with the United States in the world and is the largest exporter to the United States, according to JPMorgan. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is reducing interest rates at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve. This may result in a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. The ECB has already reduced rates three times this year due to declining inflation risks in the Eurozone. Growing expectations of another rate cut are contributing to the euro's decline in the near term. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.08000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 7, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty in registering a notable recovery against its US counterpart and is currently trading at a level approaching its lowest point since 30 July. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) limited ability to raise interest rates and the prevailing risk-on environment continue to undermine the safe-haven yen. Furthermore, the rise in US Treasury bond yields, driven by the return of Republican Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States (US), has contributed to the downward pressure on the low-yielding yen. Meanwhile, the overnight decline prompted a verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, which may provide some support to the yen and help limit losses. The US dollar (USD) is currently trading just below the four-month high reached on Wednesday, amid optimism over growth and inflation. This could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates. This could provide further encouragement for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision this Thursday. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 6, 2024 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 16:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks EURUSD: The EUR/USD exchange rate is declining in Asian trading on Wednesday. The US dollar is gaining ground as voters favour former US President Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election. The polls are now closing in 15 states, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. Mr. Trump is currently outperforming Mr. Biden in rural areas, while Ms. Harris is outperforming him in suburban areas. The strengthening of Trump's trade position is providing further support to the US dollar (USD) against the euro (EUR). Steve Englander, head of G10 global currency research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, commented, "At present, the outlook appears to favour Trump." Mr. Englander further noted that throughout October and early November, the Trump trade had favored a stronger dollar and higher yields. The outcome of the US presidential election will be a key factor influencing the dollar's momentum this week. However, investors will be monitoring the Federal Reserve's (the Fed) monetary policy decision, which is scheduled for announcement on Thursday. In Europe, positive Eurozone GDP data prompted traders to reduce their bets on a larger-than-usual interest rate cut at the December meeting. The market anticipates that the ECB will cut the deposit rate by the usual 25 basis points (bps) in December. nvestors will be keeping an eye on ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech on Wednesday. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 5, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing a decline against its US counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session, moving away from the one-week high reached the previous day. Nonetheless, the probability of a Japanese Yen decline is constrained as market participants may exercise caution in making aggressive directional bets due to the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. Furthermore, expectations of an interest rate increase at the forthcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in December may also provide support for the yen. Meanwhile, the unwinding of the Trump trade, as well as expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this week, is driving US Treasury yields further lower, resulting in a narrowing rate differential between the US and Japan. This maintains a defensive position for those betting on the US dollar and should serve as a tailwind for the yen. Furthermore, a decline in market risk may favour the JPY and help contain a significant rise in the USD/JPY pair. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 4, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair saw a notable increase in value on Monday, reaching 1.29700 amid a weaker US dollar in Asian trading hours. The US dollar (USD) continues to face selling pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which provided some support for the major pair. Following a 50-basis-point cut to rates in September, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to implement a further 25-basis-point reduction in its discount rate at its November meeting. The probability of this outcome is estimated by the markets to be around 97%. The US dollar is experiencing a decline as traders anticipate the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week. Analysts anticipate that Donald Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will exert upward pressure on inflation, Treasury yields and the US dollar, while Kamala Harris is regarded as a potential successor. "There is a widespread view that a Trump victory would have a positive effect on the US dollar, although many believe that such an outcome has already been priced in," said Chris Weston, an analyst at brokerage Pepperstone. Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reduce interest rates on Thursday, despite predictions that the Labour budget could result in higher inflation in the UK next year. Market sentiment is that the Bank of England will announce its second 25 bp rate cut this year, taking it down to 4.75 per cent. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.30000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GOOGLE SHORT TRADE OUTLOOK ON EARNINGS REPORT DAY OCT.29, 2024NASDAQ:GOOGL WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: >P/E Ratio (Quarterly Lookback): Google's P/E is currently at around 25, signaling overvaluation (typically anything equal or above 25 is considered overvalued). >Correlation: Both Google's P/E ratio and value compared to Treasury bonds are flashing overvalued signals. DAILY OUTLOOK: >Short-term and long-term value correlations vs T-bonds and P/E ratios suggest the stock may remain overbought until the upcoming earnings report, which could act as a catalyst. >Election Year Seasonality is strongly bearish as well. TECHNICAL INSIGHT: >GOOG may pull back to fill a previous price gaps before slowing down. Stay sharp, traders! 🎯 #GOOG #ShortTrade #MarketAnalysis #Investing Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. It reflects general market fundamentals and personal speculation. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trade at your own risk.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by TradersPod
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 25, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) failed to capitalise on the previous day's recovery move against its US counterpart, attracting fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday. The latest data, published on Thursday, revealed a contraction in business activity across Japan's manufacturing and services sectors in October. Furthermore, the decline in Tokyo's core inflation rate below the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target has led to a reduction in expectations of additional rate hikes in 2024, placing some pressure on the yen. Furthermore, the prevailing positive sentiment towards risk factors is eroding the JPY's status as a safe haven currency. This, coupled with the emergence of some US dollar (USD) buying, is providing support for the USD/JPY pair near the mid-151.000 level. However, the recent verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities is helping to prevent a significant drop in the JPY and limit the currency pair's decline. In light of the upcoming general election in Japan on Sunday, traders are monitoring the release of macroeconomic data from the US for short-term momentum amid ongoing political uncertainty. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 152.000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 24, 2024 GBPUSDEvents to pay attention to today: 11:30 GMT+3. GBP - PMI Composite 22:45 GMT+3. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks GBPUSD: On Wednesday, the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by an additional 0.5%, reaching a new ten-week low and moving closer to 1.29000. The UK and US will release Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday, with updates provided on a rolling basis. Investors will also be monitoring speeches from central bankers at both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Pound declined further on Wednesday, with markets showing weakness due to a broad US Dollar recovery and investors awaiting an overall decline in the UK PMI for October. The median market forecast is for a slight downturn in UK activity figures, with the services PMI for October expected to fall to 52.2 from 52.4 in the previous month. In the US, the median market forecast is for a mixed outcome in October's PMI reading. The manufacturing PMI component is expected to rise to 47.5 from 47.3, while the services PMI component is expected to fall slightly to 55.0 from 55.2. Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004