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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 7, 2025 GBPUSDEvents to pay atttenyion to today: 09:00 EET. GBP - Change in retail sales GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is starting the new week on a subdued note, fluctuating within a narrow range around the 1.3600 mark during the Asian session amid mixed fundamental signals. The British pound (GBP) received some support last week after Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Chancellor Rachel Reeves would remain in her post for the foreseeable future. However, the growing likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) as early as August is having a negative impact on the GBP/USD pair. In fact, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that interest rates are moving downwards, while Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor called for faster rate cuts amid the risk of a hard landing for the British economy. However, the decline in the GBP/USD pair is still being held back by the underlying bearish sentiment towards the US dollar (USD). Investors remain concerned that US President Donald Trump's sweeping bill to cut taxes and increase spending will lead to an explosion in the federal deficit and exacerbate the US's long-term debt problems. This, along with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its cycle of rate cuts in the near future, is keeping the US dollar close to its February 2021 low. Investors will therefore be closely studying the FOMC meeting minutes, which will be published on Wednesday, for clues about the Fed's rate cut path, which will stimulate demand for the US dollar and give a significant boost to the GBP/USD pair. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3620, SL 1.3640, TP 1.3520
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold Between Trade Optimism and Economic Concerns Gold is declining for the second consecutive session, although it remains above the critical psychological level of $3,300 per ounce in early spot trading this morning. Losses in the precious metal come amid renewed optimism over potential trade agreements that could de-escalate the global trade war, alongside upbeat sentiment regarding the strength of the U.S. economy following last Friday’s labor market data. The 90-day suspension of tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump is set to expire on Wednesday, but it could be extended at least until August 1, according to statements from both the president and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. Both the United States and its allies and trade rivals appear eager to reach an agreement. China and the U.S. are moving to implement the framework of a previously reached trade deal by reviewing the export restrictions imposed on one another. Meanwhile, European officials stated last week that a draft agreement with the U.S. may be near, aiming to maintain base tariff rates at just 10%, according to The Wall Street Journal . Markets appear largely unbothered by trade developments, given the flexible and seemingly open-ended deadlines and the lack of major surprises, according to analysts cited by Reuters . This easing of concern may lead gold to gradually lose the risk premium it had gained from fears of a global trade war. Still, those concerns could return swiftly if negotiations fail and heavy tariffs are reinstated. The Washington Post reported that a potential U.S.-Vietnam trade deal may anger China and, in turn, reduce the likelihood of a broader deal between Beijing and Washington. Additionally, the prolonged uncertainty itself may start to weigh on the U.S. economy, which could, over time, rekindle demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The Editorial Board of The Journal noted cracks in the U.S. labor market that lie beneath the better-than-expected headline figures released Friday. The report revealed weak hiring in key private sectors, a decline in manufacturing employment, and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since 2022. The Editorial Board called for dissipation of uncertainty around trade policy to encourage private sector hiring, as companies remain hesitant amid the current indecision in the White House. Another report from The Journal also warned that prolonged uncertainty could weaken the U.S. dollar, delay corporate investment and spending, and dampen business confidence. On a related front, The Journal’s chief economics commentator Greg Ip criticized what he called “fiscal dominance” under Trump, where the Federal Reserve may be pressured to lower interest rates to ease the burden of the rising deficit caused by tax cuts. He warned this could undermine economic strength and increase inflation in the long run. In my view, the early signs of a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position could become one of the key long-term drivers of sustained gold gains—even if markets remain complacent for now and equities continue climbing to record highs. This would not reflect an economic cycle, but rather a deeper shift in market fundamentals characterized by eroding confidence in the U.S. economy and its currency.
COMEX:GC1!
by SamerHa
Gold May Find Support From These Various FactorsGold May Find Support Amid Concerns Over U.S. Debt Sustainability, Economic Weakness, and Renewed Geopolitical Tensions Gold prices are holding steady today, near $1,353 per ounce in spot trading, in what is expected to be a low-liquidity session due to the early closure of U.S. markets. This follows three consecutive days of gains. The yellow metal’s subdued movement comes as markets await key labor market data that may offer further insight into the health of the U.S. economy, especially after the recent shock from ADP figures. Gold continues to find support from several underlying factors that could sustain its upward trend this week. These include rising uncertainty around the long-term sustainability of U.S. public finances and the risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East. Concerns over U.S. fiscal stability have intensified following the introduction of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which combines tax cuts with spending reductions. In an opinion article for The New York Times , former Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers warn of the bill’s potentially severe consequences, including persistently high interest rates, reduced business confidence, falling investment, and the risk of a financial shock that markets may struggle to absorb. This could also leave the economy more vulnerable to economic and geopolitical threats. Such risks may erode investor confidence in U.S. government debt, potentially boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset even in an environment of elevated bond yields and prolonged high interest rates. On the geopolitical front, the specter of renewed escalation in the Middle East looms, and this time, the consequences could be more severe. Amid conflicting reports and statements regarding the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, both sides appear to be preparing for the possibility of renewed hostilities. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, and hardline voices continue to call for a return to conflict. In an opinion piece for The New York Times, former National Security Advisor John Bolton described negotiations with Iran as ineffective and dangerous, calling instead for regime change and the use of force. While previous rounds of conflict have not caused lasting damage to the global economy or energy supply chains, a new round may prove more disruptive. According to Reuters , Iran has reportedly loaded naval mines onto vessels, raising fears that it may attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would cross a critical threshold and turning a contained conflict into one with global economic implications. The Strait of Hormuz handles over one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports. However, Iran may avoid this step as long as its own oil exports continue flowing through the strait, as was the case during the last conflict in June. On the trade front, there is growing optimism about the potential for new agreements that could ease tensions that have disrupted global supply chains and threatened U.S. and global economic growth. This optimism follows President Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam. There is also hope that progress can be made with China. Recent reciprocal steps, that involve the easing of restrictions on rare earth exports by China and some relaxation of U.S. technology export controls, suggest that the de-escalation agreed upon earlier in Switzerland could hold, potentially laying the groundwork for a broader trade agreement. Samer Hasn
COMEX:GC1!
by SamerHa
Compounders: 5 Simple Rules to Build Long-Term WealthImagine this: …it’s 18 years ago. The very first iPhone has just hit the market. Meanwhile, Nokia’s legendary “Snake” game, once the height of mobile fun, was starting to feel… dated. ⚡ And you can sense it: something big is coming. You don’t know exactly what, but something is about to shake the system. So, you invest €1,000 into Apple stock. No fancy moves, no day trading. You don’t check the price every morning, you don’t sell at the first dip. You just hold and go about your life, using their products as always. ---------------------------------- Fast forward to today: the iPhone has evolved quite a bit, and so has your bank account, “a bit”. That modest €1,000 investment would now be worth roughly €70,000. For context, if you had simply invested in the S&P 500 instead, your total profit would be €3,300. This is what happens when you hold a real compounder. Apple: +6,942%. S&P 500: +334%. Time doesn’t just pass, it compounds! Big difference, right? And the craziest part? You didn’t need a crystal ball. Looking back, everything makes perfect sense. The real question is: Can you spot the next one before it becomes obvious? --------------------------------------- 📈 Compounders: The slow, steady, and surprisingly effective path to wealth A compounder is a company that steadily grows your investment over time, powered by a strong business model and consistent value creation. These stocks don’t need to chase headlines. They don’t create drama, and they certainly don’t swing wildly every week on the stock exchange. They simply keep building value. Strong financials, good products, and a clear direction—like a snowball quietly rolling downhill, gathering momentum with every meter. As Warren Buffett once said: That’s exactly what compounders allow you to do. While you rest, they keep working. It’s definitely not a get-rich-quick strategy. It’s more like a slow, somewhat boring, and failry a “safer” route. But in return, it might just give you something far more valuable than fast gains: financial peace of mind, and perhaps even financial freedom. 🔍 So how do you spot one? Now, let’s be clear: compounders are not bulletproof. Market crashes, disruptive competitors, and economic shocks can still shake them.But when the foundation is solid, these companies tend to stand strong, even in a storm. Here are five key traits that define a true compounder. From consistent growth to an unshakable competitive edge. --------------------------------------- 📈 1. Steady Growth What you want to see is a steady upward trend in both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Not a rollercoaster. A clean, reliable trend. A strong compounder doesn’t explode one year and crash the next. It grows year after year. It grows calmly, consistently, and predictably… Microsoft EPS Q Source: TradingView That’s usually a sign of solid management and sticky customer demand. Let’s look at a key metric here: EPS CAGR (5-year) – the compound annual growth rate of earnings per share. 5% = solid → reliable and steady progress 10% = good → suggests a strong business model and real market demand 15%+ = great → this is where the snowball effect really kicks in, fast and orderly 📌 The higher the CAGR, the faster your investment compounds. But it’s not just about speed, it’s about repeatability. If that growth is not random but repeatable and sustainable, you don’t just have a growth stock → you’ve got a true compounder. ⚠️ Always consider the sector: A 15% CAGR might be normal in tech, but in a consumer brand or industrial company, that’s an exceptionally strong result. --------------------------------------- 💡 2. Efficient Capital Allocation A good compounder doesn’t just grow a lot—it grows wisely. That means every dollar the company reinvests into its business generates more than a dollar in return. Think of it like a business where every $1 invested turns into $1.20 or more in profit. The more efficiently it can put capital to work, the faster it compounds over time. 🎯 ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) tells you how effectively a company is using all its invested capital—including both equity and debt. ROIC shows how much profit the company earns after taxes and costs for every dollar it has invested, regardless of where that money came from.It’s broader than ROE, which only considers shareholder equity. >10% = solid >15% = good >20% = great 🎯 ROE (Return on Equity) measures how well the company generates returns specifically on shareholder money: >15% = solid >20% = good >25% = great 📌 In most cases, ROIC is more important than ROE , since it doesn’t get distorted by how much debt the company is using. But when both numbers are high, you’ve got something that creates a lot of value - a true compounding engine. Just imagine you give a chef $10 to make a dish. If they can turn that into a $15 meal, their ROIC is 50%. That’s the kind of capital efficiency we want to see in companies too, where every dollar invested pulls serious weight. --------------------------------------- 💰 3. High Profit Margins Selling stuff isn’t hard. Any company can sell something, even at a loss. A true compounder doesn’t just generate revenue, it earns real profit from it. That’s where operating margins come into play. They show how much money is actually left over after covering everything: salaries, logistics, rent, office coffee, stolen toilet paper, and all the other lovely overhead costs. ⚙️ Operating Margin – the percentage of revenue that turns into operating profit: 10% = solid → stable profitability, usually driven by volume or efficiency 20%+ = great → often signals strong pricing power, lean cost structure, or a dominant brand 📌 Why does this matter? Because the more profit a company retains after expenses, the more it can: - reinvest in new products or markets - pay dividends to shareholders - or buy back shares (which automatically increases your ownership per share) All of these create real, recurring value for you as an investor—not just once, but year after year. ⚠️ One important note: What qualifies as a “high” margin depends on the industry. A software company might easily run at 30% margins, while a retail chain or car manufacturer might be thrilled with 5%. So don’t judge the number in isolation. Always consider the type of business—in some sectors, profits come from volume, not margin. --------------------------------------- 🧱 4. Debt Matters Even if a company is growing fast and making money, it still doesn’t qualify as a true compounder if it’s drowning in debt. A real compounder moves forward mostly(!) under its own power, not thanks to borrowed money. Financially strong companies have a healthy buffer, so they’re not in trouble the moment the economy slows down or credit tightens. 📉 Debt-to-Equity (D/E) – how much of the company is financed with debt versus equity: Under 1 = solid → reasonable leverage Under 0.5 = great → very strong and conservative balance sheet 📈 Interest Coverage Ratio – how easily the company can pay its interest expenses: 5× = solid 10×+ = great → very safe, meaning debt costs won’t threaten profitability 📌 The lower the debt and the higher the buffer, the lower the risk.A company with a strong balance sheet doesn’t need to refinance debt in a panic or rely on costly tricks to survive downturns. Think of it like the foundation of a house. Without it, even the most beautiful structure can collapse. ⚠️ Some industries (like real estate or utilities) naturally operate with higher debt levels. But even in those cases, you want to see a business that controls its debt, rather than living “one day at a time.” --------------------------------------- 🏰 5. Durable Competitive Advantage (a.k.a. Moat) Back in the Middle Ages, a moat was a water-filled trench that protected a castle.Today, in investing, a “moat” is what protects great businesses from competition. It’s a business that others can’t easily reach or replicate. 💪 When a company has a wide moat, it can: - Defend its market share even when others try to attack - Command higher prices—because customers stay loyal - And if a competitor starts gaining ground, it often has enough capital to... just buy them out Here are some classic moat types with examples: - Brand Loyalty – People pay more for something familiarExample: Coca-Cola. There are hundreds of alternatives, but the taste, logo, and brand feel... irreplaceable. - Network Effects – Every new user strengthens the product or platformExample: Visa, Mastercard. The more they’re used, the harder it is for any new player to break in. - Technological Edge – The company is simply too far aheadExample: Nvidia, ASML. You can throw money at the problem, but patents and experience aren’t things you copy overnight. - Ecosystem Lock-in / Habitual Consumption – Customers get “stuck,” and switching feels like a hassleExample: Apple. Once you have the iPhone, AirPods, and MacBook… switching to Android just sounds like a lot of work.Or take Procter & Gamble. If your baby’s used to Pampers, you’re not going back to cloth diapers anytime soon. (To be fair—Huggies might actually be better 😄 That’s Kimberly-Clark, ticker KMB.) 📌 A strong moat allows a company to maintain both profitability and growth for the next 10+ years—because no one else can get close enough to steal it.It’s not fighting tooth and nail for every dollar. It rules its niche quietly and efficiently. --------------------------------------- Now that we’ve covered what makes a business a compounder, the next question naturally follows: “Okay, but if it’s such a great company... is it still a great price?” That’s where valuation comes in.P/E ratio: how to know whether you’re paying a fair price or just a premium for the brand. --------------------------------------- 👉 In my April article, I clearly broke down P/E along with eight other key fundamental metrics: straightforward, real-world explanations designed to help you actually use them… --------------------------------------- 💵 P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio) The P/E ratio tells you how much you’re paying for every $1 of a company’s earnings. Think of it like this: are you buying solid value for $20… or paying $70 just because the brand sounds familiar? Now, for compounders, a high P/E (say, 25–40) can actually be fine, IF(!) the company is growing fast and has a strong moat. Here’s a quick cheat sheet: * Under 15 → generally cheap (might be a bargain… or a trap) * 15–25 → fair price for a traditional business * 25–35 → reasonable if the company is growing consistently * 35–45 → starting to look expensive, must be justified by fundamentals * 45+ → expensive, and the market expects big things. One slip-up and the stock could drop fast. ⚠️ A P/E over 40–45 means the market expects strong, sustainable growth.If that growth doesn’t show up, the stock won’t just stumble—it could crash. But here’s the key: P/E doesn’t work well in isolation. Context is everything. Before judging the number, always ask: - What sector is this company in? - What’s the sector average? - How fast is the company growing? - Are the profits stable and sustainable? --------------------------------------- Real-World Examples: ✅ Visa – P/E around 37The average for financial stocks? Usually 10–15.But Visa grows quickly, is highly profitable, and has an ironclad moat.Is it expensive? Yes. But in this case, justifiably so. ✅ Microsoft – P/E around 35Tech-sector average tends to sit between 25–35.Microsoft has consistent growth, high margins, and clear market leadership.A P/E of 35 is absolutely reasonable—as long as the growth story continues. 🤔 But what if Microsoft trades at P/E 50+? Then you have to ask:Is earnings growth truly supporting that price?Or are you just paying for the brand... and a bit of FOMO? ----------------- Leave a comment: What’s the highest P/E you’ve ever paid, and was it worth it? ----------------- 📘 Compounder Cheat Sheet Don’t just stare at absolute numbers. Always compare within the sector, consider the company’s growth pace and business model. Ask yourself: “How much am I paying today for what this company will earn tomorrow?” --------------------------------------- 🧩 Summary Compounders are like good wine, they get better with time. Find companies that grow steadily, generate profits, keep debt low, and dominate their niche. Hold tight. Stay patient. Let the snowball roll. Thanks for reading! If this article was helpful or resonated with you, feel free to like, comment, or share it with a friend! It motivates me more than you’d think. 🙏 And if you’re new here: 🍷 Like good wine, this channel only gets better with time. Follow and let the ideas compound slowly, steadily, and deliciously. Cheers Vaido
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by VaidoVeek
5
XAUUSD GOLD buy holdXAUUSD GOLD BUY NOW – LONG TRADE SETUP ACTIVE 🟡📈 Gold has pulled back to a key support area and is now showing signs of strength at the current price of $3301. This zone is acting as a strong base for buyers, signaling a potential bullish continuation in the coming sessions. We are entering a LONG position with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, supported by market structure and technical confirmation. 🔹 Current Price: $3301 🎯 Target Levels: First target at $3350, extended target at $3400+ 🛑 Stop Loss: Recommended below $3275 to protect capital As long as price holds above the support zone, bulls remain in control. Patience, discipline, and proper risk management are key — let the trend do the work. Gold is poised for upside — time to ride the wave!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
Riding the Wave or Facing a Pullback? Key Levels to WatchGBPUSD: Riding the Wave or Facing a Pullback? Key Levels to Watch! Hello TradingView Community! The GBPUSD pair is currently under the spotlight, experiencing significant movements driven by a mix of market sentiment and economic indicators. 🌍 Fundamental Snapshot: GBP's Lift vs. Underlying Pressures The British Pound has seen a notable surge, climbing near 1.3765 against the US Dollar. This uplift is primarily fueled by market hopes for an imminent announcement of Fed Chair Powell's successor by President Trump, hinting at potential future dovish shifts in Fed policy. Such speculation could dampen USD's strength, benefiting GBPUSD. However, the outlook isn't entirely clear-cut for the Pound. Fed Chair Powell has cautioned that tariff-induced inflation might prove persistent, adding a layer of complexity to the broader USD sentiment. Domestically, UK employers are reportedly planning workforce reductions to offset rising social security contributions, which could weigh on the GBP. In essence, GBPUSD is benefiting from potential USD weakness linked to Fed policy expectations, but traders should remain vigilant about internal economic pressures within the UK. 📊 GBPUSD Technical Analysis (H4/M30 Chart): Our technical analysis of the GBPUSD chart (image_b6d4de.png) reveals a clear uptrend, marked by consistent higher highs and higher lows. The EMAs are also in a bullish alignment, reinforcing this upward momentum. Key Resistance (Potential Sell Zone): We identify significant resistance at 1.38366. This level could attract selling pressure, suggesting a potential price reversal or consolidation after hitting this mark. Key Support Levels (Potential Buy Zones): Initial support lies at 1.36648. A stronger support area is at 1.36158. These levels could act as bounce points after any corrective moves. 🎯 GBPUSD Trading Plan: BUY Zone 1 (Near Current Support): Entry: Consider entries around 1.36648. SL: 1.36500 (just below support). TP: Target incremental gains towards 1.36800, 1.37000, 1.37200, 1.37400, 1.37600, 1.37800, 1.38000, and potentially 1.38300 (just shy of major resistance). BUY Zone 2 (Stronger Support): Entry: Look for entries around 1.36158. SL: 1.36000 (below strong support). TP: Target incremental gains towards 1.36300, 1.36500, 1.36700, 1.37000, 1.37300, 1.37600, 1.38000, and 1.38300. SELL Zone (At Resistance): Entry: Consider short entries around 1.38366. SL: 1.38500 (just above resistance). TP: Target incremental declines towards 1.38200, 1.38000, 1.37800, 1.37500, 1.37200, 1.37000, 1.36800, and 1.36648 (targeting support). ⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor: Fed Leadership News: Any official announcement regarding the Fed Chair succession will trigger significant USD volatility. UK Economic Data: Upcoming reports on employment, inflation, and GDP will directly impact the Pound. BoE Statements: Monetary policy stances from the Bank of England. US Inflation/Employment Data: Continues to influence overall USD strength. Trade wisely and always prioritize robust risk management! Wishing everyone a successful trading day!
Long
by MMFlowTrading
1
Gold Slides as Markets Downplay the Fallout of ME EscalationGold prices are trending lower today after a slight positive open, struggling to hold near $3,365 per ounce, hovering just above the lowest level in over ten days. This weak performance comes as markets continue to downplay the consequences of the unprecedented U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Previously, experts had viewed a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites as the line between a limited bilateral conflict with Israel and a full-blown regional war with global economic costs. Fears centered around a potential Iranian—or proxy—attack on the region’s vital oil and gas infrastructure, which supplies over a fifth of global energy needs. However, those fears have yet to materialize, offering markets some reassurance that the escalation will not trigger a major shock that could reignite concerns over global economic stability. This narrative of containment has stripped gold of the geopolitical risk premium it previously enjoyed. According to the New York Times , some experts believe Iran is unlikely to disrupt energy flows in the region as long as its own export facilities remain intact. In another word, any Iranian attempt to destabilize energy markets may invite retaliatory strikes on its own vital oil infrastructure—further damaging its already fragile economy. Axios quoted Brookings Institution foreign policy director Suzanne Maloney describing Iran’s parliamentary call to shut the Strait of Hormuz as symbolic, arguing that the Islamic Republic is unlikely to risk its economy or the rapprochements with Gulf neighbors. That said, the Middle East’s unpredictable trajectory, with near-daily escalations, continues to unsettle markets and sustain elevated risk appetite, which could ultimately benefit gold. In a New York Times opinion piece , Nicholas Kristof outlined three key risks that could stem from the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities: the nature of Iran’s response, whether the strike set back or accelerated Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and whether this is a step toward a broader war. Iran’s response could range from symbolic gestures to reckless escalation, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into direct involvement. According to the Wall Street Journal , Tehran may choose to strike at evacuated U.S. bases in the region, as it did in response to the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, when Iran targeted the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq in what was described as a calculated, non-escalatory response. Alternatively, Iran could intensify missile strikes on Israel—viewed by some as Washington’s largest forward base—thus keeping the conflict somewhat localized for now. Still, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may ultimately reject a ceasefire, unlike what his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did in the late 1980s to preserve the Islamic Republic. This keeps the door open to new and unpredictable rounds of conflict, according to The Times . On the nuclear front, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius warned in an opinion piece that Iran could pursue a crude radioactive “dirty bomb” using highly enriched near weapons-grade enriched uranium. Such a scenario would also be dangerously uncertain. In my opinion, it is unlikely that the U.S. or Israel would simply stand down after such a development, possibly setting the stage for the most extreme and dangerous escalation yet. This could align with the protracted duration of the war and reports that Israel’s defensive missile stockpiles are running low, which raising the stakes. Israel may feel compelled to force Iran into surrender, as the U.S. did with Japan, though unlike Japan, Iran could be a nuclear state. Given Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political stance, a settlement that leaves Iran’s nuclear or ballistic program intact is unlikely to be accepted. Iran, for its part, firmly rejects dismantling its programs, adding to the likelihood of prolonged conflict and worst-case scenario. Despite the market’s muted reaction to the U.S. strike, the surrounding risks remain significant and unresolved. As long as their realization remains uncertain, volatility in gold and oil prices may persist until the conflict is either resolved or definitively contained. Samer Hasn
COMEX:GC1!
by SamerHa
ETH BUY BIASEthereum (ETH/USD) – Weekly Chart Summary • Current Price: ~$2,250 • Trend: Bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows • Key Zones: • Support (Demand): $1,800–$2,000 and $1,400–$1,700 • Resistance: $2,800–$3,600 (liquidity zone) • 200-Week MA: Acting as dynamic support near current levels • Outlook: Potential drop into demand zones, followed by a strong bullish reversal targeting the $3,200–$3,600 region • Risk: Failure to hold $1,800 could trigger deeper losses 📈 Bias: Wait for price to reach key demand zones before entering long positions.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by RayForexlyfe
BTC/USD (4-hour interval)📈 BTC/USD 🕒 Interval: 4H 1. General trend We are observing a medium-term downtrend. Since June 10 (middle vertical line), the price has been systematically creating lower highs and lower lows. Current price: approx. USD 102.625. 2. Formation and Price Action 🔻 Left side of the chart (May 20 - June 10): Volatility, no clear direction, but local highs are formed in the area of ​​USD 111,000 - 112,500. Consolidation from May 27 to June 2. 🔻 Right side of the chart (after June 10): A clear breakout from the consolidation downwards. A potential correction or continuation of the downward movement is currently forming. The last candles suggest a strong downward impulse, and the current candle has a long lower shadow – a possible demand reaction. 3. Technical levels 📉 Resistance: $112,400 – local peak from June 10. $109,000 – $109,500 – area of ​​previous consolidations. $107,000 – lower limit of previous support. 📈 Support: $102,000 – currently tested level. $100,000 – psychological support level. $97,000 – potential range of further declines. 4. Stochastic RSI (oscillator at the bottom of the chart) The indicator currently shows the intersection of the %K and %D lines in the oversold zone. This may suggest a short-term upward rebound – but in the context of a downtrend, this may just be a correction. 5. Candles and price action The last candle has a long lower shadow and a close close to the maximum – this may indicate buyer pressure in this zone. No confirmation of a reversal – only the closing of a bullish candle and a breakout above USD 103,500–104,000 may give a signal of a larger rebound. 6. Scenarios ✅ Bullish scenario (short-term): Rebound from the USD 102,000 zone. Test of USD 103,500–104,000 (local resistance). If broken – a move towards USD 107,000 is possible. ❌ Bearish scenario (continuation): Breakout of support at USD 102,000. Movement towards the psychological level of 100,000 USD. Possible escalation of declines on increased volume. 7. Signals to watch Price behavior in the area of ​​102k USD - a key place to react. Volume indicators (not visible here) could confirm the direction of the movement. Will stochastic RSI give a full buy signal? (%K line above %D, both coming out of the oversold zone).
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
1
Gold Prices Pull Back Amid Profit-Taking and Unchanged Fed ratesMacro approach: - Gold prices have recently pulled back as investors took profits at elevated levels to offset losses elsewhere amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and steady Fed holding rates. - Speculation is mounting that the US may involve into the Middle East conflicts, raising fears of a broader regional tensions. - Meanwhile, a dovish Fed outlook signaling two potential rate cuts this year and concerns over growing US debt continues to provide underlying support for gold prices. Technical approach: - XAUUSD is retesting EMA21, and the support level is around 3560. The price is above both EMAs, indicating that the upward momentum is intact. - If XAUUSD closes below EMA21, it may continue to plunge and retest the following support at 3285, which is the confluence with the ascending trendline. - On the contrary, remaining above 3560 may prompt a potential retest of the key resistance at around 3430. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by DatTong
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 19, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 14:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England base rate decision GBPUSD: GBP/USD remains down for the third consecutive session, trading around 1.34100 in Asian trading on Thursday. The pair is struggling as the US dollar (USD) strengthens amid rising demand for safe-haven assets triggered by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. In addition, the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In the UK, consumer price index inflation fell to 3.4% year-on-year in May, as expected, from 3.5% in April. However, this figure is still well above the BoE's target of 2%. Nevertheless, markets still expect rates to fall by around 48 basis points by the end of the year. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that ‘US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran in the coming days.’ ‘US plans to attack Iran continue to evolve.’ Another Wall Street Journal report suggests that US President Trump approved plans to attack Iran on Tuesday but wanted to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear programme. In addition, the dollar was supported by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who said that inflation remains slightly above target and may rise in the future, citing the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided at its June meeting on Wednesday, as expected, to leave the base rate unchanged in the range of 4.25-4.50%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still forecasts interest rates to fall by about 50 basis points by the end of 2025. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.34100, SL 1.34300, TP 1.33200
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Apple is standing at the edgeApple (AAPL) is losing its long-term structure — second retest of the broken trendline suggests a bearish setup On the 3D chart, Apple shows signs of structural breakdown. The weekly trendline from 2023 was broken and retested — twice. The price failed to regain it and now trades below, with candles showing weakness: low body closes, upper wicks, and no upside follow-through. MA200 is now above price, and all EMAs are turning down. Volume Profile shows a heavy resistance block near $197. If the price remains below, sellers are in control. Key levels: — $192.20 = 0.5 Fibo support. — Breakdown ➝ targets: $180 → $167 → $152. Fundamentals: Apple's recent reports show decelerating growth, weak China demand, and compressed margins. While AI buzz supports sentiment, institutional flow suggests distribution. BigTech may be topping out, and Apple is positioned for pullback. Strategy: Short below $196 with confirmation. Stop: $198. Targets: $180 / $167 / $152. Failure to reclaim $192–197 = broken trend confirmed. This is not a growth setup. This is where trends end — and profit-taking begins.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by TotoshkaTrades
Brent and WTI: Is $100 oil just Around the corner?#Brent and #WTI prices are steadily climbing, now reaching $73.30 and $71.15 per barrel. The market is showing strong signs of an upward trend, similar to what we saw in 2021–2022. With global demand picking up and increased interest from major market participants, analysts believe prices could soon push past the $100 mark — especially amid ongoing global tensions and rising consumption. Standard Chartered forecasts Brent reaching $95 by December 2025, while some outlooks go even higher. What’s fueling this potential rally? Top 5 reasons oil may surge in the coming months: Global instability : Tensions in the Middle East and unrest in key producers like Venezuela and Nigeria raise concerns about supply disruptions. Any flare-ups could push prices to $90, $95 — or beyond. Economic recovery : Asia and developing economies are bouncing back fast. With industrial activity rising, so does energy demand — including for oil. OPEC+ tight supply policy : OPEC+ is likely to maintain production cuts to support prices and keep the market balanced. Low reserves, limited expansion : Stockpiles remain tight, and exploration has lagged in recent years. If demand spikes, producers may struggle to scale output quickly. Aviation and petrochemicals rebound : Global air traffic and plastic manufacturing are growing, increasing demand for jet fuel and oil-based feedstocks. Together, these factors create a strong setup for upward momentum in Brent and WTI prices. According to FreshForex analysts , the current levels could mark the beginning of a new growth cycle.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 16, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Empire Manufacturing Manufacturing Index GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive below Friday's three-year high, although it lacks bearish conviction and is trading in a narrow range around 1.3500 during the Asian session. The latest UK consumer inflation data will be released on Wednesday, ahead of Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) meeting, which will play a key role in influencing the British pound (GBP). In addition, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, which will affect the US dollar (USD) exchange rate and give a significant boost to the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, weaker UK GDP data released on Friday, which showed that the economy contracted more than expected by 0.3% in April, reinforced expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates more aggressively than anticipated. On the other hand, the US dollar is receiving some support from the global flight to safe assets caused by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is helping to limit the growth of the GBP/USD pair. However, growing recognition that the US central bank will also resume its rate-cutting cycle in September amid signs of weakening inflation in the US is holding back dollar bulls from aggressive bets. Moreover, the generally positive risk sentiment acts as a barrier to the dollar as a safe haven and provides some support to the GBP/USD pair, which requires some caution before confirming that spot prices have peaked. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.35500, SL 1.35300, TP 1.36400
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPJPY – Golden Pocket Breakout SetupTimeframe: 1H | 🎯 Bias: Bullish Breakout GBPJPY is testing a key Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5–0.618) from the recent impulse leg (194.00 → 196.195). This golden pocket sits inside strong demand and could launch the next leg higher. 🔍 Technical Confluence Fib Support Zone: 195.270–195.447 (0.618–0.5) Price Action: Consolidating near golden pocket, showing rejection wicks Structure: Higher highs and higher lows intact RSI: Resetting around 45–50, leaving room for momentum buildup Next Resistance: 196.200 (previous high), then 197.300 and 198.500 🧠 Fundamental Confluence GBP Strength Drivers: BoE's "hawkish cut" tone — restrictive policy to fight sticky inflation UK macro improving: upcoming GDP & labor data could surprise to the upside Market pricing less aggressive easing compared to peers = GBP premium JPY Weakness Factors: COT RSI at 100% = overbought positioning BoJ delays normalization to 2027 Risk-on flows (VIX ~16.7) reducing safe-haven demand Macro Flows: Bullish NASDAQ + stable oil → support GBPJPY upside Macro Themes: Oil & NAS100 bullish = supports GBPJPY upside Market unwinding defensive positions = bullish for GBPJPY 🛠 Trade Plan 📥 Entry Option 1: Buy on bullish reaction from 195.27–195.45 (Fib golden pocket) 📥 Entry Option 2: Break and close above 196.200 (confirmation entry) 🛑 Stop Loss: Below 195.00 (under Fib + recent structure) 🎯 TP1: 196.80 🎯 TP2: 198.00 (measured move) 📌 “Golden pockets don’t lie when fundamentals align.”
Long
by wajahatarif
3
AUDCAD - Fundamentals vs Momentum – Betting on CAD🕓 Timeframe: 4H | ⚠️ Bias: Bearish From Supply Zone AUDCAD is rejecting the 0.8940–0.8960 supply zone, a key resistance that's been respected multiple times. With RSI turning over near overbought and CAD fundamentals improving, this looks like a clean short opportunity. 📊 Technical Confluence 🔴 Resistance Zone: 0.8940–0.8960 (historical supply zone) 📉 Bearish Structure Intact: Still in a broader HTF downtrend (lower highs) ⚠️ RSI Divergence: Slowing near 62, suggesting momentum exhaustion 🕯️ Price Action: Current candle showing indecision – early signs of rejection 🌍 Fundamental Confluence 🇦🇺 AUD Weakness: RBA paused rates, inflation easing → Dovish AUD overextended after sentiment shift (conditional score ↑ too fast) AUD vulnerable if sentiment shifts risk-off 🇨🇦 CAD Strength: BoC holding firm on rates, hawkish tone Oil production recovering → CAD-positive COT net long position + seasonal strength 🎯 Trade Plan 📍 Entry: 0.8940–0.8955 (on bearish confirmation: engulfing/pin bar) 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.8975 (above resistance zone) 🎯 Take Profit 1: 0.8870 (mid-range) 🎯 Take Profit 2: 0.8830 (into demand zone) ⏱️ Optional: Partial entry now, scale in at 0.8960 if tapped 🧠 “Don’t chase the move. Sell the retest when momentum fades and fundamentals align.”
Short
by wajahatarif
Gold (XAUUSD) Eyes 3,330 Zone as Safe-Haven Demand Builds!!Hey Traders, In today’s trading session, we’re keeping a close watch on XAUUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 3,330 zone. Gold continues to trade within a strong uptrend, and is currently undergoing a healthy correction, bringing it near a key support/resistance level that could act as a springboard for the next leg higher. From a fundamental perspective, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to the evacuation of diplomatic personnel and increasing concerns of potential military escalation. As uncertainty grows, safe-haven assets like gold tend to attract stronger demand from investors seeking protection against volatility and risk. If the situation deteriorates further, we could see a surge in gold prices as market participants hedge against geopolitical instability. Trade safe, Joe
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
17
GOLD PAY ATTENTION TO BULISHXAUUSD (Gold) Technical Signal ⚠️ | Price action is forming a classic bull flag pattern, showing consolidation after a strong upward move. The flag is starting to 'blush' — early signs of momentum building for a potential breakout. If price breaks above the upper trendline with volume confirmation, we could see a continuation toward higher resistance levels. Traders, keep a close eye – gold may be preparing for its next leg up. #XAUUSD #GoldSignal #BullFlag #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexSignals #GoldBreakout #PriceAction"
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 4, 2025 USDJPYEvents to pay attention today: 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting some intraday buyers after falling against the US dollar during the Asian session, and, at least for now, it seems that its pullback from the weekly high reached yesterday has paused. An upward revision of Japan's services business activity index, as well as expectations that wage growth will lead to faster inflation, leave open the possibility of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025. In addition, ongoing geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty are key factors supporting the JPY. Meanwhile, cautious statements by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday sparked speculation that the next interest rate hike will not happen anytime soon. However, this still differs significantly from expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) by the end of this year. This, along with concerns about the US budget, is causing a new wave of selling of the US dollar (USD) after Tuesday's decent rebound from a six-week low and is putting some pressure on the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session. Trading recommendation: SELL 144.20, SL 144.40, TP 143.20
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
NZDUSD BUYSNZDUSD is expected to buy to complete the crab pattern around 0.61200 psychological level BOUNCING FROM A 1HR FVG(Fair value Gap). we saw an expected rate cut of NZD interest rate at 25 basis point(0.25%) was was a dovish stand by the central bank. with investment sentiment still high on risk-on assets, I expect nzd to bully the green-back which is struggling with low interest rate figures as a result of declining inflation figures nearing its 2024 inflation target of 2% and global trade wars.
Long
by Boahfx
1
WHAT'S THE FATE OF INTEL CORPORATION STOCK?From the perspective of technical analysis, INTC is approaching a key psychological level at $19. In addition, it's in a downtrend. If the key level should hold by pushing price higher, leading to a break out of the downtrend line and closing with a strong bullish candle above the down trend line and resistance level around $22, this will indicate a strong bullish signal. Likewise, this is supported by a bullish divergence signal from the awesome oscillator. Otherwise, a failure of the psychological level of $19 may lead to price dropping further. Furthermore, we need to look beyond technical analysis. Fundamental analysis also has some insights for our decisions. Fundamentals for INTC established a bearish bias. The summary is as follows: Financial Health: • Negative EPS (-$4.47): Intel is losing money. • High Debt ($50B): This can limit growth and increase risk. • Declining Revenue: Sales dropped from $80B (2021) to $51B (2024). Valuation: • Cheap P/S (1.66x), but no P/E (due to negative earnings). • Dividend yield (2.56%) is at risk of being cut. Sentiment: Stock price fell from $56 to $19.55 (65% drop). Institutional investors may be wary. Fundamentally, INTC is weak — best suited for speculative, long-term bets (if you believe in a turnaround). Strategy for Traders: 1. Conservative Approach: - Wait for: - Break out of downtrend line and resistance around $22 and positive earnings/news. - Rising volume to confirm momentum. - Target: $27–$30 - Stop-loss: Below $17 (apply proper risk management). 2. Aggressive Approach: - Buy near $18–$19 with tight stop-loss ($16). - Target resistance level at $22. 3. Avoid If: - You’re risk-averse or prefer stable companies. - Intel’s debt/revenue trends worsen. Note: - Short-Term Trade: Only if breakout confirms ($22+). High risk, but possible 20% bounce. - Long-Term Investment: Avoid unless Intel shows profit/debt improvement. Always use stop-losses —Intel’s fundamentals make it volatile. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice. The outcome maybe different from the projection. Don't take the signal if you can't accept the risk.
NASDAQ:INTC
by KofTFx