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Bull Trap Confirmed: HOOD's 8% Rally Faces ExhaustionHey Traders after the success of our last month trade on Tesla hitting all targets more than 35%+ With a Similar Trade setup I bring you today the NASDAQ:HOOD Short opportunity on Hood Based on Technical + Fundamental View -Market structure -Head and shoulder pattern -Currently will be trading at supply zone which was a recent support and now an ideal place for a reversal to create the right shoulder of the bigger head and shoulder pattern - Daily time frame. 1. Declining User Growth and Transaction-Based Revenue 2. Regulatory and Legal Challenges 3. Rising Costs and Profitability Pressures 4. Intense Industry Competition 5. Macroeconomic and Market Volatility Technical View Head and shoulder pattern - Pretty visible. Right shoulder is yet to be formed, Which makes an ideal place to SELL with a great Risk Reward ratio. Pro Tip Wait for a bearish candle stick pattern to execute trades on end of the day keeping stop loss somewhere above the supply zone. Target 1 - 35.52$ Target 2 - 30.81$ Target 3 - 26.26$ Stop Loss - 44.72$ Fundamental View 1. Declining User Growth and Transaction-Based Revenue Robinhood’s revenue model relies heavily on Payment for Order Flow (PFOF), which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in trading activity. After a pandemic-driven surge in 2020–2021, user growth stalled, with monthly active users dropping 34% YoY to 14 million by mid-2022. Transaction revenue fell 55% in Q2 2022, and while assets under custody grew to $140 billion by Q2 2024, the platform’s dependence on volatile crypto and meme-stock trading amplified revenue instability. 2. Regulatory and Legal Challenges The SEC’s scrutiny of PFOF and proposed trading rule changes threaten Robinhood’s core revenue source. In 2022, New York regulators fined Robinhood’s crypto unit $30 million for anti-money laundering violations. Ongoing legal risks, including backlash from the 2021 GameStop trading restrictions, have further eroded institutional trust. 3. Rising Costs and Profitability Pressures Operating expenses surged due to aggressive marketing, technology upgrades, and compliance investments. Despite workforce reductions (23% layoffs in 2022), profitability remains strained. The company’s shift toward diversified products like retirement accounts and credit cards has yet to offset these costs. 4. Intense Industry Competition Traditional brokers like Fidelity and Charles Schwab adopted zero-commission trading, neutralizing Robinhood’s initial edge. Newer platforms like Webull and Public.com also captured younger investors with advanced features, while Robinhood’s limited product range (e.g., lack of wealth management services) hindered retention of high-net-worth clients. 5. Macroeconomic and Market Volatility - Interest Rate Sensitivity: As a growth stock, HOOD declined amid rising rates in 2022–2023 and broader tech-sector sell-offs. - Recent Market Turmoil: On March 10, 2025, HOOD dropped 18% alongside crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase due to Bitcoin’s price volatility and fears of inflationary tariffs under new U.S. policies. - Retail Investor Pullback: Reduced discretionary investing and crypto crashes (e.g., Bitcoin’s 71% plunge in 2022) dampened trading activity. NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE
NASDAQ:HOODShort
by REUBEN_EUSTACE
21
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 26, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD exchange rate has been declining for the fifth consecutive trading day, as the price continues to test below 1.08000. The Euro is finding it difficult to regain its strength, as the absence of significant economic data from the EU leaves traders vulnerable to geopolitical headlines and market fluctuations resulting from US data releases. On Tuesday, the US Conference Board (CB) reported a rise in one-year consumer inflation expectations, which rose to 6.2% in March from 5.8% in February. Consumers are understandably concerned about the ongoing high prices of necessities, particularly eggs, and the potential inflationary impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The Central Bank's survey of consumer confidence also revealed a decline in future economic expectations, reaching a 12-year low of 65.2 in March, well below the 80.0 mark that typically signals a potential recession. These concerns have been further compounded by a warning from Moody's, a leading ratings agency, which has expressed concerns over the U.S. fiscal sustainability, particularly in light of mounting debt service challenges. Moody's has also forecast that the country's fiscal sustainability is likely to face a prolonged decline, a statement that could displease Donald Trump and his administration, who are currently in favour of a significant debt ceiling increase by Congress. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.07700, SL 1.08400, TP 1.06750
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 25, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) declined against its US counterpart for the fourth consecutive day, taking the USD/JPY pair to 151.000, or a three-week high, during Tuesday's Asian session. Sentiment regarding global risk is being fuelled by hopes that US President Donald Trump's so-called retaliatory tariffs will be narrower and less harsh than originally anticipated. In addition, optimism over a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and reports that China is considering including services in a subsidy programme to boost consumption, have further bolstered investor confidence, undermining the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) January meeting showed that policymakers discussed under what conditions the central bank should raise interest rates further. However, the minutes gave no clues as to the likely timing of the BoJ's next move and failed to make much of an impression on the JPY bulls. The Bank of Japan's hawkish outlook is at odds with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) forecast of two 25 basis point rate cuts before the end of this year. This could deter dollar bulls from making aggressive bets and support a low-yielding yen, which should limit the upside of USD/JPY. Trade recommendation: BUY 151.000, SL 150.200, TP 152.150
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/CAD Triangle Pattern (24.03.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.4403 2nd Resistance – 1.4435 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 19, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 20:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing a decline, trading near 1.29900 during Asian hours on Wednesday after rising in the previous two sessions. The pair is encountering difficulties as the US Dollar (USD) remains strong, supported by stable US Treasury bond yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day. Market expectations are that the Fed will maintain its current interest rates, in light of ongoing concerns regarding inflation and economic uncertainty. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the dollar's strength against six major currencies, is currently trading near 103.40. Meanwhile, yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries are currently at 4.04% and 4.29%, respectively. However, the US dollar has experienced some pressure due to weak economic data from the US and recent tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, contributing to investor uncertainty. Traders are closely monitoring the Fed's updated economic forecasts for further indications regarding the future trajectory of US interest rates. Any indications of a hawkish stance from Fed policymakers could potentially weaken the US dollar against its counterparts. In addition to the economic factors, The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has dismissed two Democratic commissioners of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The legality of this action is being contested, and there is speculation that it may set the stage for the dismissal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members of the Federal Reserve. The British pound (GBP) is trading cautiously as investors focus on the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. Market expectations are for the Bank of England to maintain borrowing costs at 4.5%, with a predicted 7-2 vote split. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra are expected to favour a rate cut. At the February meeting, both officials advocated for a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, while the majority supported a more conventional 25 bps reduction. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.29700, SL 1.30300, TP 1.28900
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 13, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 14:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims EURUSD: On Wednesday, EUR/USD traders adopted a more cautious approach, allowing Fiber to retreat by approximately a third of a cent and pushing bids back below the significant price target of 1.09000. Despite the significant recovery in EUR/USD over the past couple of weeks, buyers are regaining ground after Fiber corrected more than 5 per cent in less than a fortnight. This week's European economic data is minimal due to the prominence of trade war concerns and US inflation data. On Wednesday, the US imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, a significant escalation in President Donald Trump's efforts to wage a trade war with all of the country's allies. Meanwhile, US consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell more than expected in February, with core CPI at 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 2.8 per cent year-on-year, slightly faster than forecasts. While the figure remains above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target, it has raised hopes for a rate adjustment. CME's FedWatch tool now shows equal odds of a Fed rate cut in June compared to July. It has been almost four years since US core inflation reached 'transitory' levels. Barring a brief slowdown in Q3 2024, key inflation indicators have remained stable since June 2023, when post-Covid inflation fell to an annualised rate of 3%. Despite the lower CPI reading in February, there are indications of potential challenges for policymakers: gasoline and heating oil prices fell 3.1% and 5.1%, respectively, while natural gas prices increased by 6%. Additionally, housing price inflation increased by 4.2% compared to the previous year, while a modest 0.3% decrease in automobile prices concealed a 2.6% year-on-year rise in food price inflation. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.08600, SL 1.09300, TP 1.07700
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GOLD sell target in new week As of March 9, 2025, gold is trading at approximately $2,919.80 per troy ounce. Forecasts for the upcoming week (March 10–14, 2025) suggest a potential decline in gold prices. Predictions indicate that gold may reach around $2,789 on March 12 and $2,784 on March 13, with a slight rebound to $2,825 by March 14. Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have experienced a slight decline recently, with spot gold falling by 0.1% to $2,892.00 per ounce on March 4, 2025. Given these projections and technical insights, setting sell targets at $2,860 and $2,850 for the upcoming week aligns with the anticipated market trend. However, it's essential to consider that gold's long-term outlook remains bullish, with forecasts predicting prices could reach $3,265 in 2025 and $3,805 in 2026. Please note that market conditions can change rapidly, and it's advisable to stay updated with the latest analyses and forecasts before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SadarExplore
4
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 10, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair began the new week positively, trading at around 1.29400-1.29450 during the Asian session and matching the four-month high reached on Friday.The bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) supports the prospects of extending the momentum of last week's breakout above the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD against a basket of currencies, is approaching its lowest point since early November, a development that followed Friday's weak monthly US jobs data.The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) data revealed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the consensus estimates. In addition, the previous month's data was revised downward to 125k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.This comes amid fears that US President Donald Trump's policies will hit US economic activity, and suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates several more times this year. Current market predictions indicate approximately three 25bp rate cuts this year, a development that persists in exerting pressure on the pound and thereby supporting the GBP/USD pairing.The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he expressed that the US central bank has no intention of hastily reducing interest rates, did not provide any respite for those who advocate a strengthening of the dollar. Conversely, the British pound is bolstered by the anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a more gradual rate reduction approach compared to other major central banks, including the Fed.This dynamic is further fueling demand for the GBP/USD pair, underscoring a positive outlook.Absent significant market-moving economic data from the UK or the US, the US dollar is expected to exert influence on spot prices, enabling traders to capitalize on short-term opportunities. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.28900, SL 1.29500, TP 1.27800
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 7, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been strengthening in recent weeks due to the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), maintaining the USD/JPY pair near its lowest level since early October, which was reached on Thursday.Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates has put upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on global economic growth continues to weigh on investor sentiment, as evidenced by weaker stock market performance. This is another factor supporting the safe-haven yen. However, USD bears seem reluctant to place new bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which in turn limits USD/JPY losses. Trade recommendation: BUY 147.600, SL 147.000, TP 148.400
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 4, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 16:15 EET. JPY - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks USDJPY: On Tuesday, the Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened for the second consecutive day, reaching a multi-month high against the US dollar (USD) last week. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish policy outlook continues to support the JPY, while concerns over the economic consequences of US President Donald Trump's tariff policy have led to a decrease in investor appetite for risky assets and contributed to the yen's strength. Trump's threats regarding Japan's currency depreciation, as well as the low dynamics of US dollar (USD) prices, are other factors exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. JPY bulls have not been affected by weak macroeconomic data from Japan, which showed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and a drop in corporate capital spending for the first time in three years. This suggests that the yen's value may continue to rise. Trade recommendation: SELL 149.000, SL 149.800, TP 148.200
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 26, 2025 GBPUSDOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight rebound, allowing the cable to retrace to the upper boundary of the short-term consolidation and hold bid near the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).US consumer sentiment declined in February, adding to concerns of slowing economic growth, with US President Donald Trump reiterating his intention to impose stiff import taxes on his citizens as a trade war threat against the US's closest trading partners. Despite weakening consumer sentiment, driven mainly by concerns over President Trump's tariff packages, the cable markets remained positive on Tuesday.Despite a new round of attempts by President Trump to start a trade war, markets continue to believe that the US President will find a reason to put aside his own tariff threats at the 11th hour. The data calendar for the US and UK has relatively few items scheduled for Wednesday, although the market is anticipating the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. Friday will conclude the week with the release of updated US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, a key indicator that investors hope will show that the recent rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not affected core inflation. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.26500, SL 1.26000, TP 1.27300
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 20, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is holding strong following losses on the previous two consecutive days, trading at around 1.25900 during the Asian session on Thursday. However, the pair is under pressure due to concerns over tariffs from US President Donald Trump, which have led to increased demand for the US Dollar (USD).According to Bloomberg, Trump announced plans to impose 25 per cent tariffs on foreign cars on Tuesday, as well as expected duty hikes on semiconductor chips and pharmaceutical products. The official announcement is expected to be made on 2 April.Market participants are now focusing on key US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims, the central bank's leading economic index and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which will be released during the North American session.The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January, released on Wednesday, confirmed the decision to leave interest rates unchanged in January. The committee emphasised that further assessment of economic activity, labour market trends and inflation was required before any adjustments to rates could be considered, and that clear indications of falling inflation were necessary for any rate cuts to be implemented.Despite the release of better-than-expected annual inflation figures on Wednesday, the British pound (GBP) did not strengthen. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-on-year, beating December's 2.5% rise and market expectations of 2.8%. This figure remains well above the Bank of England's (BoE) inflation target of 2%.Bank of England directors have previously recognised that inflation could rise in the short term due to higher energy prices and then gradually return to target. Earlier this week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that while inflation may rise temporarily, he does not expect it to be sustainable and still sees a gradual disinflationary trend. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.26000, SL 1.25350, TP 1.26700
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
$SOL Price LONG Setup February 2025 | 1D | SOLUSDTSee on Chart, Recently News- Ethereum Price Holding Above $2600 Could Spark an Altseason? Ethereum price is currently testing a crucial support level at $2,670, hovering dangerously close to the $2,600 threshold which is crucial for its price and other altcoins. This price, just above 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, was a key support that could dictate ETH’s and other altcoins short-term trajectory. If Ethereum fails to maintain the $2600 level, it could signal a broader downturn, potentially impacting the anticipated altcoin season. Ethereum has been navigating within an expansive ascending channel since mid-2023, adhering to both support and resistance levels delineated by Fibonacci retracement lines. Notable touches at the 0.236 Fibonacci level around $1,456 and rebounds off the 0.382 level around $1,767 demonstrate the historical significance of these zones. A fall below the current level near $2,670 might see ETH targeting lower supports at $2,414 and possibly $2,175. Conversely, a rebound from the $2,600 level could reignite bullish sentiment, possibly pushing prices towards upper resistance levels near $3,140 and beyond. This potential recovery would be critical in maintaining the momentum required for an altseason, characterized by widespread gains across various altcoins. How Whales Could Spark an Altseason? The total balances for wallets holding between 10k to 100k ETH surged, reaching 16 Million ETH by February 2025, compared to just above 14 Million in early 2024. This substantial accumulation coincided with a noticeable uptick in ETH’s price. It escalated from around $2,400 in December 2024 to over $3,800 in January 2025 before slightly retracting. After a peak in early 2025, ETH price headed into a downward trend while the balances in whales’ wallets did not shown a similar decline. This indicates a potential holding strategy rather than a sell-off. Recently From News- Ethereum (ETH), the king of altcoins, has been steadily climbing, with analysts predicting a potential rally to $10,000 in 2025 as institutional adoption grows. Historically, when Ethereum moves, ERC-20 tokens follow, meaning that a major ETH rally could send Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Mutuum Finance (MUTM) soaring. With ETH currently priced at $2,773, a push toward $10,000 would likely create a bull market for ERC-20 tokens. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
$BTC Long Setup February 2025 | 4H | BTCUSDT See on Chart,✨ CRYPTOCAP:BTC Long Setup February 2025 | 4H | BTCUSDT Recent News: Czech Central Bank Explores Bitcoin Amid Cautions Over Crypto Risks Analyst Says Bitcoin Could Reach $100K in 1-2 Weeks, Trying to Create New Support. Bitcoin's price has recently bounced from a key support level, located just below the 78.6% retracement, which has been a focal point in the last few days. The price formed a local low and attempted a move to the upside. However, the bullish rally is still in its early stages, and the momentum seems too small to be considered a strong trend just yet. Currently, Bitcoin has failed to break the previous swing high from February 3rd, which is around $96,700. For the bulls to show strength, a break above this level is essential. While this move up could be a sign of things to come, the price action is not yet strong enough to confirm a substantial low. Crypto analyst Michael say Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming weeks. He believes Bitcoin could reach $100K within 1-2 weeks, with the current consolidation phase offering a great entry point for investors. As Bitcoin holds at lower levels, van de Poppe sees it as a chance for a potential breakout. Market Implications The price area between GETTEX:89K and $57K may receive backing from institutional investors and ETFs yet a significant market fall below $57K would signal extended bearish trends. Long-term holders keep GETTEX:25K as their essential reference point for the market because previous market bottoms reached this exact value. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 17, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher near 1.25850 in the early Asian session on Monday, rising on the back of a positive UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and weak US retail sales data.The US market will be closed on Monday due to the Presidents' Day holiday.US retail sales posted their biggest drop in nearly two years, dragging down the dollar. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Friday that retail sales fell 0.9 per cent in January after an upwardly revised 0.7 per cent rise in December, which was weaker than the 0.1 per cent decline that had been forecast. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 4.2 per cent during the same reporting period.Stronger than expected UK GDP figures provide some support for the Pound Sterling (GBP). According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations. Traders will be monitoring the UK labour market and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. These reports may provide some indication as to whether the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates again at its March meeting. Trading recommendation: GBPUSD: SELL 1.25800, SL 1.26300, TP 1.25100
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
$BNB LONG SETUP | Binance Coin Price Predictions for This Week Binance Coin (BNB) Price Predictions for This Week Key Support levels: $600 Key Resistance levels: $701. Massive Bounce off Key Support After BNB touch $500 for a brief moment in early February, the price shot up to $700 in less than 10 days. This reversal was abrupt and significant, confirming that the support at $600 is well defended by buyers. At the time of this post, BNB is under the key resistance at $700.2. Sellers are Defending the $700 Resistance As soon as the price moved above $700, sellers came in strong to push the price under this key level. After an impressive performance, BNB could not break this level which continues to act as a key resistance at the time of this post. Nevertheless, buyers could attempt another breakout later.3. Sustained Buy Volume Meets Sellers Prior to BNB reaching $700, the buy volume was sustained and increased gradually. However, as soon as the price moved above $700 sellers dominated with the highest daily volume recorded so far in 2025. This has put a pause to the rally, and for it to continue, buyers need to turn $700 into a key support. 🔥 Market Analytics Info ( CRYPTOCAP:BNB ) Fully Diluted Market Cap: $94.2B Volume 24 hour: $2.25 B Total Supply: 142.48 B BNB Circulating Supply: 142.48 B BNB Market Cap: $94.02 B All Time High: $793.35 All Time Low: $0.0961 Already have 90 Day Returns 2.84% Now 7 Day Returns 13.99% 🔥Chart Analysis ( CRYPTOCAP:BNB ) 💫2025 ATH : $793.35 🎆ENTRY POINT : $613.63, $588.50, $564.54 🎇STOPLOSS ZONE : $502.87 1ST TARGET $684.43 2ND TARGET $745.47 3RD TARGET $792.78 ATH 4TH TARGET $877.85 Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 14, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales EURUSD: On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate strengthened, rising seven-tenths of a percentage point to re-enter the 1.04000 range. This gain was influenced by a general weakening of the US dollar, which facilitated inflows amid less severe US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data than anticipated.Investors are currently speculating that the Trump administration's ongoing ambiguity regarding tariff threats indicates the likelihood of no trade war. Meanwhile, European economic data released on Thursday aligned with market expectations, offering minimal impact on traders. However, the US PPI data, which exceeded forecasts, helped alleviate investor concerns regarding renewed inflationary pressures. Core inflation for the year ending January stood at 3.6% year-on-year (y/y), surpassing the 3.3% forecast but falling short of the revised 3.7% figure, originally published at 3.5%. The upcoming release of US Retail Sales will be a key data point for the week, with markets anticipating another strong performance. The monthly retail sales figure is forecast to decline marginally by 0.1%, from the previous reading of 0.4%.In other news, US President Donald Trump has unveiled his latest strategy to boost tax revenues, amid significant cuts in administrative taxes. The concept of 'reciprocal tariffs', which involves the imposition of duties on countries that levy tariffs on US goods, is scheduled to be developed in the coming months, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appointed to finalise the details.The timing of additional tariffs remains unclear, and investors view these new tariff threats as unlikely, reminiscent of Trump's proposed 'day one tariffs' as well as tariffs on Canada, Mexico and specific imports such as cars, microchips and pharmaceuticals. While there are various proposals for imposing import taxes on US consumers and businesses to penalise foreign companies and countries, there has been little real movement so far, leading investors to assume this trend will continue. Trading recommendation: EURUSD: BUY 1.04700, SL 1.04100, TP 1.05300
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Institutions Pull Back Their Funds From The FedDisclaimer : Geopolitical factors are currently a major concern. This data analysis aims to serve as a fundamental basis derived directly from official sources to assess the USD exchange rate and the likelihood of future monetary policies under normal economic conditions, excluding geopolitical factors that create sentiment different from the actual economic conditions. H.4.1 Report FRED CME FedWatch Fed Balance Sheet: Securities Held Outright: Increased by $38 million. Reverse Repo (RRP): Significantly decreased by $51.875 million in the latest period. Reserve Balances: Increased by $42.962 million. TGA Data Current balance: $809,154 million. Change this week: Decreased by $8,799 million. Change from last year: Decreased by $22,726 million significantly. RRP A significant decrease in the last 3 days, from $99.65 billion on February 10 to $67.82 billion on February 13, with a total decrease of -$31.83 billion. M2 Money Supply Data: M2 value as of December 2024: $21,533.8 billion. Change from the previous month (Nov 2024): +$85.5 billion. Change from last year (Dec 2023): +$808.4 billion. Fed Interest Rate Decision: Main decision: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Bank Reserve Interest Rate: Remains at 4.4%. Primary Credit Rate: Remains at 4.5%. The Federal Reserve will continue its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy by continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury securities and MBS. Market Expectations from CME FedWatch Tool: Current target rate: 425-450 bps (4.25% - 4.50%). Probability for an interest rate of 400-425 bps: 2.5%. Probability for an interest rate of 425-450 bps: 97.5%. Based on this analysis The Federal Reserve has a policy to maintain interest rates stable in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Despite the significant decrease in Reverse Repo and the decrease in TGA, as well as the significant increase in M2 Money Supply, this policy is maintained to support economic stability and reduce excess liquidity in the market. The high probability (97.5%) of the market to maintain or increase the interest rate also reflects strong expectations for a conservative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Impact on USD Overall Based on the analysis of data from the Fed Balance Sheet, TGA, RRP, M2 Money Supply, and interest rate expectations, USD is likely to remain stable to strengthen in the short term, especially due to the tight monetary policy (Quantitative Tightening/QT) and the high probability of interest rates remaining in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Components RRP decreased significantly by -$31.83B in 3 days, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in RRP means banks and financial institutions are withdrawing their funds from The Fed and are likely to move into other assets. This increases liquidity in the market, which may weaken the USD due to more dollars circulating, potentially lowering the exchange rate. M2 Money Supply increased by +$808.4B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A significant increase in M2 indicates more money circulating in the economy, which could pressure the purchasing power of the USD. If this growth continues, it resembles a loosening of monetary policy, which could weaken the USD in the long term. The Fed remains with QT & does not lower interest rates, monetary contraction, USD may strengthen The QT policy and no interest rate cuts indicate that the Fed still wants to control inflation and maintain tight monetary policy. This could attract investors to USD-based assets (Treasury Yields), keeping the USD strong compared to other currencies. TGA decreased by -$8.8B weekly, -$22.7B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in TGA balance indicates that the government is withdrawing funds for spending. This means more dollars entering the economy, which could add pressure to weaken the USD in the short term. You can prepare a trading strategy based on the following scenarios: Bullish USD if scenario: The Fed maintains QT, does not cut interest rates, and investors continue buying USD-based assets. Neutral USD if scenario: The Fed maintains interest rates, but RRP & M2 Money Supply continue to rise. Bearish USD if scenario: RRP continues to decrease drastically, M2 increases significantly, and the Fed starts considering interest rate cuts. Short Term (1-3 months): USD is likely to remain strong due to tight monetary policy, but if liquidity continues to increase from RRP and M2, weakening could occur in the next quarter. Long Term (6-12 months): If M2 continues to rise and the Fed changes its policy towards interest rate cuts, USD will gradually weaken. Focus on market reactions to liquidity data such as RRP and M2. If RRP drops drastically & M2 rises, USD weakens. If the Fed maintains QT & high interest rates, USD remains stable. Pay attention to the next FOMC Meeting & liquidity data (M2 & RRP) for further USD trend confirmation. Important Note: Treat the above analysis as a fundamental basis in making your trading decisions. It is suitable for swing traders, but for the short term, it is important to consider geopolitical factors. ICEUS:DXY ICEUS:DX1!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CipherOracle
$LUNC Long Setup see on Chart, LUNC Price on the Rise as Terra..LUNC Price on the Rise as Terra Classic Moves Closer to 403B Target The Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) market rose continuously during five trading days and surpassed its essential resistance barrier. On February 12, LUNC reached its peak value at $0.0000784 while showing a 59% rise relative to its yearly market lows. LUNC Burn Activity Triggers Price Surge The upward price trend of LUNC joins altcoins in general, which have recovered from their local winter lows reached on Monday. LUNC’s latest price increase stems directly from the continuous token-burning efforts on the Terra Classic network. LUNC Metrics demonstrates that the network has destroyed more than 628 million tokens throughout the previous week. The latest round of burning operations has expanded the total destroyed LUNC supply up to 402.78 billion since the initiative commenced. The current pace indicates that the total burned supply will cross the 403 billion threshold during the latter part of this month. Between on-chain network transactions and Terraform Labs donation amount, 67.86 billion of the total burned tokens have been eliminated thus far, but 334.92 billion tokens were directed toward the burn wallet. Binance stands out as the primary supporter of LUNC burning through its destruction of more than 70.8 billion tokens, as noted in our earlier post. The burn process received substantial support from the DFLUNC Protocol, which managed to destroy 4.52 billion tokens, along with LunaticsToken, which burned 1.97 billion tokens. The Terra Classic community believes that ongoing burn operations alongside staking might possibly resolve the issues that affect TerraClassicUSD (USTC). USTC, the stablecoin that lost its peg during the Terra ecosystem collapse, also recorded a notable surge. USTC price rose above 13.22% today to reach the value of $0.01875. However, the current value of USTC remains 5,233% below its target dollar value of $1, therefore necessitating further increase in price. LUNC Price Analysis Today On Wednesday, LUNC price continued surging, trading at $0.00007805, up by 5.12% at press time. A formation of hammer candlestick pattern emerged at this price level with its long lower wick and tiny body structure, which often indicates a bullish reversal move, as mentioned in our previous story. The LUNC price exceeded the upper boundary forming the pattern of declining wedge. The falling wedge is created by descending trend lines that move toward one another and generally signal bullish price movements. Terra Classic overcame its previous support area at $0.00007140 in early September. Terra Classic stands to potentially reach its next major resistance point at $0.0001025 after breaking through this barrier because this level corresponds with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement measure. The future price potential stands at 40% above its current value according to this target measurement. Hence, the current bullish outlook would become invalid if market bearishness drives prices beneath the $0.00005525 support Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 13, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) has attracted some buying interest following the release of a stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan on Thursday, which confirms bets on further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).However, the market reaction was short-lived amid concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, as well as upcoming retaliatory tariffs. This helped USD/JPY to hold above 154.00 during the Asian session and remain near the weekly high reached the previous day.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates, and US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday suggests that the Fed does not have much room to cut rates this year. This has led to an increase in US Treasury yields, resulting in a widening of the yield differential between the US and Japan and a limitation on the upside for the low-yielding Yen.However, the US Dollar (USD) has experienced difficulty attracting buyers, which may potentially discourage traders from making new bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair. Trade recommendation: USDJPY: SELL 154.200, SL 153.500, TP 154.800
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 12, 2025 GBPUSDEvents to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index 17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair rebounded on Tuesday, breaking a three-day losing streak and returning to the 1.24500 level touching range, up around two-thirds of one per cent for the day. Global currency markets sold off the US Dollar slightly as risk appetite gradually recovered across the board, helped by a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and expectations that the latest iteration of US President Donald Trump's tariff threats would be averted through last-minute concessions, as has been the custom since Donald Trump took over the White House.UK data remains scarce midweek, but cable traders will be keeping an eye on Thursday's release of UK gross domestic product (GDP) data. The latest forecasts indicate that UK GDP will recover to 1.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, although the fourth quarter GDP figure is expected to contract by -0.1%.The key indicator on Wednesday will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). US core CPI inflation is expected to remain at 2.9% year-on-year, while core CPI inflation is expected to decline to 3.1% from the previous reading of 3.2%. On Thursday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, with core PPI inflation expected to ease slightly to 3.3% y/y from 3.5%. Trading recommendation: FLAT
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
4 Scenarios for Anticipating The Fed's PolicyBased on prevailing economic conditions and financial pressures Scenario #1 | The Fed’s Policy and Its Implications High Inflation Persists & Bank Liquidity Declines Conditions: Bank Credit grows slowly, while Deposits grow at a slower pace than Borrowings. Cash Assets decline significantly, indicating a reduction in liquidity within the banking system. Interbank lending rates rise, tightening funding among banks. Inflation remains high, but economic growth slows. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Maintain high interest rates or increase further to curb inflation. Reduce bond holdings through Quantitative Tightening (QT) to absorb liquidity from the financial system. Open emergency lending facilities for banks to prevent panic in financial markets. Impacts: USD may strengthen as higher interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Increased pressure on banks, especially those heavily reliant on short-term funding. Stock markets may experience a correction, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate. Scenario #2 | Recession Starts to Surface & Credit Tightens Conditions: Bank Credit stagnates or turns negative, indicating that banks are restricting credit due to concerns about default risks. Deposits stagnate, as investors prefer alternative assets such as bonds or gold. Stock markets begin showing bearish pressure due to economic uncertainty. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Gradually lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment. End Quantitative Tightening (QT) and restart Quantitative Easing (QE) to inject liquidity into the markets. Adjust bank reserve requirements to allow more flexibility in lending. Impacts: USD may weaken as lower interest rates reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. U.S. government bonds will become more attractive, causing bond yields to decline further. Stock prices may rise, particularly in sectors that benefit from lower interest rates, such as technology and real estate. Scenario #3 | Liquidity Crisis in the Banking System Conditions: Sharp declines in Cash Assets, causing some banks to struggle to meet short-term obligations. Deposits exit the banking system, as public confidence in banks decreases. Federal Funds Rate spikes, making interbank borrowing more difficult. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Provide emergency lending facilities for banks facing liquidity shortages, as seen during the 2008 and 2023 financial crises. Lower interest rates in an emergency move if liquidity pressures worsen to maintain financial stability. Collaborate with the FDIC to guarantee deposits and prevent bank runs. Impacts: Financial markets may experience high volatility, with potential panic selling in banking stocks. Investors will flock to safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. government bonds, causing their prices to surge. Confidence in the USD may temporarily weaken, especially if the Fed injects large amounts of liquidity into the system. Scenario #4 | Soft Landing - Stable Economy & Fed Policy Adjustments Conditions: Inflation is under control, and the economy continues to grow positively. Bank Credit grows steadily, and bank liquidity remains adequate. Stock markets remain calm, with no signs of panic in financial markets. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Keep interest rates stable for an extended period, with no drastic changes. End Quantitative Tightening (QT), but avoid immediately restarting QE. Collaborate with financial regulators to maintain banking system stability without major interventions. Impacts: USD remains stable, as no major monetary policy changes occur. Lending rates remain in a moderate range, supporting investment and consumption growth. Stock markets may gradually recover, particularly in sectors benefiting from stable monetary policies. Anticipating The Fed’s Policy! If liquidity declines and inflation remains high → The Fed is likely to maintain high interest rates & tighten monetary policy. If a recession starts to emerge → The Fed may lower interest rates & ease monetary policy to support credit and investment. If a liquidity crisis occurs → The Fed may bail out banks, lower interest rates, and stabilize the financial system. If the economy remains stable → The Fed may hold interest rates & make only minor adjustments. Recommendations: Monitor The Fed’s statements and key economic data (CPI, PCE, NFP, GDP) to anticipate upcoming policy changes. Analyze market reactions to monetary policy to identify trends in stocks, bonds, and USD. Use bank liquidity and Borrowings data to assess potential liquidity constraints in the banking system. If you have additional insights or different perspectives, I’d love to discuss them in the comments! ICEUS:DX1! ICEUS:DXY CBOE:CBOE NASDAQ:CME TVC:US10Y
ICEUS:DX1!
by CipherOracle