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Fundamental Market Analysis for January 20, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) has seen an influx of buyers following its decline in the Asian session and a pause in its correction from the nearly four-week high reached on Friday against its US counterpart. An increase in Japan's core machinery orders for the second consecutive month has indicated a potential recovery in capital spending. Additionally, the likelihood of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates at its meeting later this week is also supporting the yen, which, along with moderate weakening in the US dollar (USD), has led the USD/JPY pairing back below 156.000 over the past hour. Despite growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-cutting cycle this month, signs of weakening US inflation may allow the central bank to continue lowering borrowing costs into 2025, which has been a key factor in the recent decline in US Treasury bond yields. This has narrowed the yield differential between the US and Japan and provided further support for the yen. However, the potential for new US President Donald Trump's trade policies to impact market sentiment could influence the yen's performance, particularly in anticipation of the Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for Thursday. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 156.000, if we consolidate above it we consider Buy positions, if we rebound we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
BNB → Big Accumulation. In Step With The DistributionBINANCE:BNBUSDT is trying to move into the realization phase after quite a long accumulation, thanks to which the coin can give a very good growth. The coin tested the strong support of 645 within the correction. False break of the support and quite aggressive buyout of the fall indicates buying potential. Bitcoin, which is testing the highs and ready to go even higher is a good driver for BNB Accordingly, the focus is on near-term levels. If the price can break the near-term resistance and consolidate above, the market will further go to break ATH and try to renew it. Resistance levels: 761, 793 Support levels: 691, 645 I don't exclude that the unexpected correction of bitcoin can provoke a correction in the cryptocurrency market, but in general the structure is bullish. High probability of resistance breakdown with the purpose of continuation of movement
by MarketAnalyzar
BTC → Consolidation Before The Breakout When Do We Go Up?BINANCE:BNBUSDT continues to consolidate, but within a strong bullish structure. The price is approaching the trigger, the breakout of which may provoke the formation of an upward impulse A good signal that hints that the growth is likely to continue is the fact that after a strong growth and testing 100K the price does not fall, but consolidates with gradually rising local lows, it is also worth paying attention to MA-50, which acts as a strong support. Within this consolidation we have clear zones, within which the price is trading and accumulating potential, and there is also a clear trigger, the breakout of which can provoke the continuation of growth (distribution). But next week is the Fed meeting on December 17-18, and there may be short-term market manipulative reactions. Be careful Resistance levels: 101.8K, 104.1K Support levels: 98.9K, 94.15K Technically, the focus is on 101.8 - 98.9. Consolidation is forming inside this channel. I do not exclude a chance of support retest in the format of a false breakdown before further growth. Another deep correction to the lower liquidity zone - 94.1K is also possible. But until the price breaks 101.8, bitcoin will not go up, and based on the chart, the event is close and the chance is high
by MarketAnalyzar
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 8, 2024 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today: 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes EURUSD: On Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined against the US dollar, falling by four-tenths of a percentage point after a failed recovery to 1.04000. The pair is currently trading below last week's 26-month low, but the difference is minimal. Market analysts are optimistic about a reversal, as the Federal Reserve continues to recover towards 1.02000. The European Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was published in line with expectations, with the annual HICP for the year ending December rising slightly to 2.4% y/y from the previous reading of 2.2%.However, much of the upward pressure in European inflation figures appears to be either embedded in older figures or related to non-structural items, giving Euro traders some hope that things will continue to improve. In contrast, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) business activity survey and the ISM Services price data for December were both weaker than expected, raising concerns among market participants that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be able to deliver as many rate cuts in 2025 as investors had originally anticipated. In the US, the agenda for the upcoming trading session includes the release of December ADP employment change data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. While ADP employment data is not considered a reliable predictor of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, traders are not overreacting to significant deviations from forecasts.Investors will be looking for any indications that could potentially lead to a rate cut before June, which includes a notable softening of the labour market. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Powering the Future: Is $FCEL the Clean Energy Play of 2025?1/ 🌍 Powering the Future: Is FuelCell Energy ( NASDAQ:FCEL ) the Clean Energy Play of 2025? FuelCell Energy is transforming fuel into clean electricity. Can it energize your portfolio, or is it running out of steam? Let’s break it down. ⚡📈 # NASDAQ:FCEL #CleanEnergy #InvestmentIdeas 2/ Company Overview 🔍 NASDAQ:FCEL specializes in high-efficiency, low-emission fuel cell tech. 🔋🌿 Key products: power plants and carbon capture platforms. 🏭♻️ 3/ Market Position & Strategy 🌍 Tech Leader: Patented solid oxide & molten carbonate cells. 🧑‍🔬🔧 Market Demand: Growing with global decarbonization efforts. 🌍📈 Expansion: Focus on Europe & Asia for green incentives. 🌏💸 4/ Financial Health (Q4 2024) 💰 Revenue: $120M, up 25% YoY, from product sales ($50M) and service ($70M). 💰📊 Net Loss: Improved to FWB:30M from $50M last year. 📉🔽 Debt & Liquidity: $200M debt, $100M in cash. 💳💧 Note: Financial specifics like exact revenue splits and net loss figures are consistent with provided data but should be verified with NASDAQ:FCEL 's latest financial statements for absolute accuracy. 5/ Investment Catalysts 🚀 Policy Support: Benefiting from enhanced renewable energy incentives. 📜🌱 Partnerships: Major utility deals accelerating in 2025. 🤝🚀 Tech Advancements: New, efficient designs expected mid-2025. 🧠🔋 Policy support aligns with real-world trends like the Inflation Reduction Act, but specifics on partnerships and tech advancements would need confirmation from NASDAQ:FCEL 's announcements. 6/ Risks ⚠️ Market Penetration: Niche market with fierce competition. 🛡️🥊 Capital Intensive: High R&D and project costs. 💸🔬 Regulatory Risks: Policy changes could disrupt operations. 🚨📉 These risks are typical for the sector and align with the challenges NASDAQ:FCEL faces as per industry analysis. 7/ Valuation 📊 Market Cap: About $1.5B, shares at $3. 💰📊 P/S Ratio: 12.5, high for a loss-making company. 🤔 Outlook: Revenue could hit $500M by 2026 if projects succeed. 🎯📈 Valuation metrics are speculative based on the provided data. Actual P/S ratios and future revenue projections would require updated financials. 8/ Conclusion 🧐 Investing in NASDAQ:FCEL offers high growth potential but comes with significant risks. Ideal for long-term, high-risk tolerance investors in the clean energy space. Growth Potential: High if they leverage their tech advantage. 🌱🔝 Risk: Profitability uncertain; needs close monitoring. 🔍📉 9/ Recommendation 💡 Long-Term Investment: If you believe in the future of hydrogen and carbon capture. 🧢🌟 Monitor Closely: For operational efficiencies and market acceptance. 👀📊 # NASDAQ:FCEL #CleanEnergy #HydrogenEconomy
NASDAQ:FCELLong
by DCAChampion
Unlocking Value in Fizz: The Coca-Cola $KO🥤Unlocking Value in Fizz: The Coca-Cola ( NYSE:KO ) Investment Deep Dive Is it time to pop the cap on KO stock with a 14% dip from its high? Here's why 2025 might be your year for this Dividend King. 🍾 📊Current Market Position Market Cap: $275.35B 💰 P/E Ratio: ~21.5 (2025 estimates) Dividend Yield: 3.04% 🌟 Stock down 14% from top, at April 2024 levels. 💵Financial Health Revenue up from GETTEX:33B in 2020 to $45.78B in 2023 - that's a 39% jump! 🔺 Earnings growth: $7.75B to $10.71B (+38%) Debt management: Keeping it investment-grade. 💪 🔔Recent Developments 62 years of dividend increases! Latest at $0.485/share, giving a 3% yield. 📈 Global demand strong, beating earnings forecasts. "Buy the Dip" moment, say analysts. 🛒 Technicals show a descending triangle with caution from a Death Cross. 📉 🏆Strengths Brand loyalty like no other. Coca-Cola is iconic! 🌟 Diversifying into health drinks like water and tea. Global reach for varied income streams. 🌎 Dividend Aristocrat with over 60 years of increases. ⚠️Challenges Saturated in developed markets - growth limits? Health trends pushing consumers away from soda. 🥤🚫 Inflation could hit with price increases. 🌱Opportunities Huge potential in emerging markets where drinks are less common. 🆕 Innovation in health-focused beverages could tap new markets. 🔥Threats Stricter sugar and packaging laws might cramp style. 🚔 Currency swings could affect global earnings. 💱 ♻️Sustainability Efforts Aiming for 100% water replenishment by 2035. 💧 Packaging goal: 100% recyclable by 2025. Emissions down 25% by 2030, net-zero by 2050. But, greenwashing concerns linger. Critics note plastic production. 📈Valuation Forward P/E at 21.5 - solid for the sector with strong fundamentals. Matches Buffett and Graham's value investing criteria with consistent earnings and dividends. What's your move on KO stock? Buy now for the dividend yield ❤️ Wait for a better price 💡 Not interested in KO 🚫 📝Conclusion & Recommendation Coca-Cola offers stability, income, and growth. With its dip, it's a good entry for dividend seekers. Keep an eye on health trends & regulations. Recommendation: Long-Term Hold for income-focused investors. Monitor Emerging Markets & Health Trends. 🧐
NYSE:KOLong
by DCAChampion
Comprehensive Gold Analysis for the Week of January 6, 2025Comprehensive Gold Analysis for the Week of January 6, 2025 Gold enters 2025 with a complex yet promising outlook, driven by a combination of macroeconomic, technical, and geopolitical factors shaping a favorable environment for investors. Below is an in-depth analysis of the current market conditions and potential scenarios for gold this week. Current Market Context Gold concluded the first trading week of January near $2,657 per ounce , consolidating its upward momentum from late 2024. This movement has been underpinned by: - Sustained central bank demand , particularly in emerging markets. - Geopolitical uncertainty , including tensions in the Middle East and Europe. - Expectations for looser monetary policies from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed). In 2024, gold achieved an exceptional annual gain of +27% , its best performance since 2010, driven by its role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The metal reached an all-time high of $2,790 , setting the stage for continued volatility and opportunity in 2025. Key Fundamental Drivers 1. Global Monetary Policies - The Fed adopted a cautious stance in December, signaling a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is only an 11.2% probability of a rate cut in January, suggesting short-term stability in interest rates. - In contrast, Europe and China are expected to pursue more accommodative monetary policies. China has already announced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to counter its economic slowdown. 2. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East remain significant drivers of safe-haven demand. - Additionally, uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies under President Donald Trump is adding to market volatility. While some policies may bolster the dollar, others—such as trade tariffs—could increase demand for gold as a hedge. 3. Central Bank and Physical Demand - Central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold reserves since 2022, with purchases expected to exceed the historical average of 500 tons annually in 2025. - In China, a weakening yuan and a sluggish real estate market could further boost physical gold demand. Technical Analysis Gold is currently trading within a critical range that could determine its short-term trajectory: - Key Resistance Levels: - $2,666 (psychological barrier). - $2,700 (significant technical resistance). - All-time highs near $2,790 . - Key Support Levels : - $2,635 , aligned with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). - Lower levels around $2,600 and $2,532 , which could act as correction zones. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near neutral territory (50), indicating potential for upward movement if immediate resistance is breached. However, the range between $2,607 and $2,736 will be pivotal in defining this week’s trend. Projections for This Week Bullish Scenario A decisive breakout above $2,666 could pave the way for further gains toward psychological levels at $2,700 and potentially beyond. Catalysts for this scenario include: - Weak U.S. economic data—such as Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report—supporting expectations for monetary easing. - Escalation of geopolitical tensions or clear indications of additional Chinese stimulus. Bearish or Corrective Scenario Conversely, unexpected strength in the U.S. dollar or robust economic data could exert downward pressure on gold prices. In this case: - A pullback toward support levels at $2,635 or even $2,600 would be likely before resuming the broader uptrend. Strategic Insights Gold maintains a favorable outlook for this week due to strong fundamental and technical support. However, traders should closely monitor three key factors: 1. The release of U.S. labor market data (NFP) on Friday. 2. Movements in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields. 3. Emerging geopolitical developments that could shift risk sentiment. The current consolidation near critical technical levels offers opportunities for both bullish and corrective strategies. Active risk management will be essential given the anticipated volatility.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by sdfsdfdfsdfsdfsdfd
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 02, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 157.300 in the early hours of Asian trading on Thursday.Expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for a long time are boosting the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).Markets in Japan are closed for the rest of the week.On Friday, we will be keeping a close eye on the S&P Global US Manufacturing Activity Index for December. Traders are currently digesting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut rates by a quarter point at its December meeting, which was characterised by a hawkish sentiment. Analysts are anticipating that some of Trump's policy proposals, including tariffs, could potentially lead to higher inflation. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that it is too early to predict this, emphasising that the central bank will proceed with caution regarding further rate cuts.The significant difference in interest rates between the US and Japan is likely to provide a favourable tailwind for the pair in the near term. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last week that the central bank anticipates the Japanese economy will move closer to achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably this year.The BOJ is scheduled to release its quarterly report on the regional economy next week, which is likely to include an assessment of wage increases across the country. This report may provide insights into the BOJ's subsequent policy decision on 24 January. Meanwhile, verbal intervention by Japanese authorities may help limit the JPY's losses, with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato noting on Friday that the official will take appropriate measures against excessive currency fluctuations. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 157.000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 30, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair has risen for the third consecutive day, trading around the 1.04300 mark during Asian hours on Monday. This rise can be attributed to the remarks made by Robert Holtzmann, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB).On Saturday, the ECB's Holtzmann said that the central bank's next interest rate cut could be more protracted after the recent rise in inflation, as reported by Reuters. He also said: 'I don't see a rate hike at the moment'. 'One plausible scenario is that Trump's tariffs will lead to slower growth overall and also create inflationary pressures'. Moreover, the upside potential of the EUR/USD pair could be limited as markets continue to digest the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) aggressive bias.The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point at its December meeting, and recent dot plots point to two rate cuts next year. However, earlier this month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that officials will be cautious about further rate cuts after the expected quarter-point rate cut.The Fed's aggressive outlook is likely to support the US dollar and boost EUR/USD in the near term.Economists generally expect the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump to implement tax cuts, tariffs and deregulation, measures expected to spur inflation. This could prompt the U.S. central bank to adjust its forecast for the coming year. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 27, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is losing stability near 157.750 during the early Asian session on Friday, following the release of Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.The Japanese yen (JPY) rose after the data was released. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the New Year holiday next week. The Statistics Bureau of Japan released data on Friday showing that Tokyo's core CPI rose to 3.0% y/y in December from 2.6% in November, while Tokyo's consumer price index excluding fresh food and energy was 2.4% y/y in December from 2.2% previously. The reading is likely to encourage the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to continue raising the interest rate in January. Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank anticipates the Japanese economy will move closer to meeting the BoJ's 2 per cent inflation target sustainably next year. Ueda added that the timing and pace of adjustments in the degree of monetary accommodation will depend on future developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions. Regarding the US dollar, the anticipation of a reduced number of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may offer near-term support.The Fed reduced interest rates by a quarter point at its December meeting and has revised its forecast for 2025, predicting just two rate cuts, down from an initial estimate of four. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 158.000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 24, 2024 EURUSDIn the early Asian session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trading with small losses near 1.04000. This is due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates less frequently in 2025, which is providing some support to the dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the holiday trading week. The resumption of the Fed's 'raise rates longer' policy will be a key factor in the final trading days of the year, which could provide significant upside for the US Dollar (USD).Last week, the U.S. central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter point, as per the latest quarterly schedule. The Fed committee has revised its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. The Fed now forecasts a rate cut of just 50 basis points (bps), or two rate cuts, compared to four quarter-point cuts.Across the pond, the euro (EUR) is weakening amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the Eurozone is "very close" to meeting the medium-term inflation target set by the ECB, according to the Financial Times on Monday. She also stated that the central bank would consider further cuts to interest rates if inflation continues to fall towards the 2 percent target, as curbing growth is no longer necessary. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPAUD to the moon?Taking a long position on GBPAUD, main reasons being: - BoE holding interest rates for now and less rate cuts are expected next year, could drive more institutions to hold GBP and increase it's value - AUD are trade partners with China who are experiencing significant economic instability - COT traders are 57% long on GBP (+2.14% compared to last week) - COT traders are 52% long on AUD, but are adding more short positions (-4.53% change in net long positions compared to last week) - Retail traders are 93% short on GBPAUD (I find that retail is usually wrong, so this is a positive signal for GBPAUD longs in my book) This trade is more based on Australia's weakness rather than Britain's strength. I was also thinking of shorting AUDJPY (see previous trade idea) or AUDUSD. I couldn't get in a position that I liked on AUDJPY (yet) and I'm already in a short position on EURUSD, so I want to diversify a bit away from the US Dollar. The reason I'm entering here is because it is filling an imbalance candle, and it's also at the 0.682 mark on the Fibonacci retracement tool. If I get taken out I don't mind, there may be better entries on GBPAUD available if that happens, or there may be an opportunity to short AUDJPY instead, which I prefer the fundamentals of. Don't take this as investment advice, I'm just sharing what I'm doing. Please don't follow me blindly, create your own strategy and ideas.
Long
by ciantrades
3
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 18, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty capitalising on a modest recovery against its US counterpart from the previous day, attracting fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The latest data from Japan shows an unexpected improvement in the country's trade balance in November, driven by strong export growth. However, the data also points to weak local demand, as indicated by the decline in imports. This, along with an uncertain economic outlook amid concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, confirms expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates unchanged later this week, which will have the effect of undermining the yen. Meanwhile, the prospect of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, as well as expectations that Trump's policies could boost government borrowing and accelerate inflation, continue to support US Treasury yields. This is another factor weighing on the low-yielding JPY, although the softer risk tone helps to limit the potential for further losses. JPY bears may also choose to adopt a more cautious approach and refrain from making any significant bets ahead of a key central bank event. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting today, followed by the Bank of Japan's monetary policy update on Thursday. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 153.500, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
AUDJPY Fall? And potential Stock Market correction?Potential short idea on AUDJPY Reasons for (potential) entry: - COT traders are buying JPY and selling AUD fairly aggressively - AUD cutting interest rates, JPY hiking interest rates - AUD could be under pressure due to reliance on China, who are facing economic uncertainty In the past, when COT traders have bought JPY as aggressively as this there's been a stock market correction after it. Not saying it's definitely going to happen again - but JPY is seen as a 'safe-haven' currency and it's usually bought up when investors are risk-off. Stocks have been on a crazy bull run for the last year, I wouldn't be too surprised if there was some sort of correction in it soon.
Short
by ciantrades
7
GBPJPY Analysis - SellGBPJPY Analysis Overview 1. Seasonality: GBP: Bearish — Historical data for this time period shows GBP typically weakens. JPY: Bullish — Seasonal trends favor JPY strength, aligning with a sell bias for GBPJPY. --- 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders): GBP: 4-week flip indicates a Sell bias. JPY: 4-week flip indicates a Buy bias. Non-commercial long positions are increasing, indicating strong demand for JPY. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI (Leading Economic Indicator): GBP: Decreasing — Suggests economic slowdown and bearish momentum for GBP. JPY: Range — Neutral economic outlook, but overall supportive of its safe-haven appeal. Endogenous Factors: GBP: Decreasing — Internal economic conditions are weakening, favoring a sell bias. JPY: Increasing — Positive domestic factors support JPY strength. --- 4. Exogenous Factors: GBPJPY: Classified as a Strong Sell due to broader external influences such as global risk aversion and JPY's safe-haven demand. --- 5. Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour chart: There is a visible order block and a fair value gap (FVG) in the price structure. The price has retraced to 50% of the order block, presenting a favorable opportunity to enter a short position. Confluence from bearish market structure and resistance zone further validates the sell setup. --- Bias: Strong Sell Based on seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, exogenous influences, and technical analysis, GBPJPY is poised for a significant downside move. Look for selling opportunities at or near the current resistance levels within the order block.
Short
by asadamalik
4
SPX500 forming a Double Top pattern, will it keep going up?Technical Analysis: ================ SPX500 has formed a noticeable double top technical pattern. If it respects the double top pattern the price should touch around 5700. But if it keeps climbing the 6000 may become another support level. Fundamental Analysis: =================== 1) Israel war seems to be calming, which should reduce the uncertainty and boost the stock market 2) Russia Ukraine war is intensifying as a result of latest attacks. This war has potential to undermine all other good news and could go with the double top (technical analysis) 3) Santa Claus Rally can boost the stock market in coming weeks followed by correction in Jan 2025 ===== Happy Thanks Giving to all the traders ====
OANDA:SPX500USD
by spranav
TradeCityPro | EURAUD Analysis Buyers in Control👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s step outside the crypto space to analyze the EURAUD entry triggers for the coming week, examining both technical and fundamental aspects. 🌍 Fundamental Overview The EURAUD pair highlights the ongoing divergence between the Eurozone and Australian economic conditions. The ECB’s hawkish stance, supported by persistent inflation, strengthens the Euro, while the RBA’s dovish policies amid cooling inflation and a softening housing market weigh on the Australian Dollar. Additionally, Australia’s dependence on Chinese demand for commodities has created vulnerabilities due to China’s weaker-than-expected industrial growth. Geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East conflicts, have supported the Euro, reinforcing its stability as a safe-haven currency. In contrast, Australia’s economic slowdown and labor market weakness are adding pressure on the AUD. The balance may shift as Europe's energy prices stabilize and China introduces economic stimulus measures. 🕒 4-Hour Time Frame On the 4-hour chart, buyer momentum is evident, particularly as the pair rebounded strongly from the 1.63584 support level after rejecting the 1.65469 resistance twice. This renewed bullish strength signals active buyers in the market. 📈 Long Position Trigger The 1.65469 level remains a strong trigger for a long position. Breaking above this resistance with volume could target the 1.684 zone, supported by RSI confirmation at 69.96. 📉 Short Position Trigger Despite the bullish momentum, a failed breakout or lower high near resistance could set up a short opportunity. A more reliable entry would be a breakdown of the 1.6358 support and trendline, targeting the 1.6016 level for a pullback. The pair’s trajectory will likely depend on macroeconomic developments and shifting risk sentiment in the week ahead. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
6
Black gold continues its decline!Oil prices are falling for several reasons: • Saudi Arabia has decided to lower oil prices for buyers in the Asian market. • A strong dollar continues to pressure black gold. The drop in oil prices below $70 per barrel is likely being restrained by OPEC+ policies aimed at controlling supply volumes. The organization has decided to postpone the planned January 2025 increase in oil production to April 2025. Traders dealing with Brent crude oil show the most pessimistic sentiment in recent months after OPEC+ countries decided to delay the resumption of oil production halted since 2022. At best, this postponement may only slow the price decline amid seasonal demand reduction in the first quarter. With the holidays approaching, market volatility is also decreasing, as traders exercise caution and avoid making aggressive bets on sharp price movements. Morgan Stanley and HSBC have revised their forecasts for oil oversupply, expecting Brent crude oil prices to reach $70 per barrel by 2025. Bank of America analysts predict that the average price of Brent will be $65 per barrel in the coming years. According to a survey conducted by the law firm Haynes Boone LLP, banks expect WTI crude oil prices to drop to $60 per barrel by 2027. Trade #BRENT and #WTI crude oil with FreshForex and maximize your profits with leverage of 1:2000 and tight spreads. This allows you to manage positions efficiently, minimize costs, and capitalize on price fluctuations for potential gains.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
TradeCityPro EURJPY Analysis Key Opportunities Ahead👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s move beyond crypto and analyze the popular EUR/JPY currency pair from both fundamental and technical perspectives, preparing for potential triggers in the days ahead. 🌍 Fundamental Overview Monetary Policy: The ECB’s hawkish stance strengthens the Euro, while the BoJ’s dovish policies weaken the Yen. Economic Data: Eurozone GDP and inflation drive the Euro, while Japan's industrial performance and exports influence the Yen. Risk Sentiment: The Yen gains during risk-off scenarios as a safe haven, while the Euro thrives on Eurozone stability. Geopolitical Events: The Euro reacts to EU political shifts, while the Yen benefits from global tensions, such as those in the Middle East. Yield Differentials: Higher bond yields in the Eurozone compared to Japan attract capital flows to the Euro. Current dynamics show the Euro is stronger, but shifts in risk sentiment or changes in BoJ policy could favor the Yen. 🕒 4-Hour Time Frame On the 4-hour timeframe, we’ve seen price rejection from the 166.63 resistance level, followed by a downward move. After breaking the descending trendline, the price retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level, creating potential setups: 📈 Long Position Trigger After breaking the 159.849 level and Fibonacci resistance, a long entry is viable, targeting 162.104. An RSI breakout into overbought territory could add momentum. 📉 Short Position Trigger If rejected at resistance and breaking below 159.331, a short position is possible, targeting 157.80 or the significant support at 155.119. Stay alert for confirmations to act on these scenarios. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
by tradecitypro
4
EURUSD → False breakout of resistance. DowntrendFX:EURUSD is testing resistance in the downtrend phase. The maneuver ends with a false breakout of resistance at 1.067. On the daily timeframe the price is squeezed between the strong resistance at 1.06011 and the local support at 1.05. So, if the bears keep the defense below the key resistance, the currency pair will continue to fall in the short term. The target in this case may be the area of 1.05 - 1.044. But, technically, the retest of 1.067 may provoke a local breakout of the level and the price movement to the channel resistance against which there will also be a high probability of formation of a false breakout. Resistance levels: 1.067, 1.965, 1.076 Support levels: 1.0448, 1.0331 Emphasis on resistance. Confirmation of the nearest resistance in the form of price consolidation below the level, if retested, could be a good entry zone. But if resistance is broken, the focus will shift to 1.065 - 1.067
by MarketAnalyzar
BITCOIN →The Trend Reversal. The End Of Growth? Or Not!BINANCE:BTCUSDT Still maintains a bullish market structure as evidenced by the local upward channel within the broader consolidation channel. After a strong rally, the price is moving into consolidation. Consolidation is the accumulation of a position. Accordingly, there can be different situations inside such a figure: traps, traps, false breakdowns, unpredictable impulses and so on. And it all has one goal - accumulation. Technically, the bullish market structure is not broken. Globally - flat. Locally - an ascending channel. The risk of breaking the bullish structure will be if the price starts to approach 91K - 85K. Then the question about deeper correction or even reversal will become more serious, but not now. The bulls are actively defending the boundaries of the local ascending channel and it may lead the price to retest 99-102K, but at the moment there are no preconditions for strong growth. The market will need a few days to recover its strength. Just during this period of time, the asset may show further intentions. Resistance levels: 99K, 101.3K, 104K Support levels: 95.9K, 91.6K If the bears hold the defense below 99K and the price starts to fall down, then pay attention to 95.9K. Further fall or consolidation inside the channel will depend on this level. If the bulls will be able to keep the defense inside the channel (above the support), then in the medium term we can count on the continuation of growth.
by MarketAnalyzar