Get started

Fundamentalanalsysis

USDHKD Could this be the next Swiss Franc?The Swiss Franc used to be pegged to the Euro until 2015. The ECB went on a money printing spree with its own QE and the SNB could not sustain maintaining the peg. So it decided to remove the peg and the Swiss Franc strengthened against the Euro more than 20%. This caught a bunch of traders by surprise (mainly because the SNB said it was committed to maintaining the peg) and even collapsed the FXCM branch in the US. Now, will this happen to the HKD peg? Maybe. But the difference here is going long this pair will have you gain positive rollover and if the peg is removed, then price will likely appreciate. If price ranges, then you will be gaining around 1.77% a day, which is pretty decent (especially if utilizing margin. Be careful with using a large amount of margin). As this pair ranges and the FED keeps rates where they are at, with a standard lot, you'll be seeing around $4.85 a day. That is HKEX:1 ,770.25 a year and since the margin requirement for the HKD is around HKEX:10 ,000 for a standard lot, that is over a 17% increase (a little less because you will need more to add some buffer room or you'll get hit with a margin call). But if built correctly, this could be a nice play. I have an entry at the bottom of the band in order to get price at a good lvl. From here I can just hold. Remember, these are just my thoughts and what I am doing. I could be wrong so conduct your own research and analysis. Have some good trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
EUR/HUF Some Wild Swings. Not for the Faint of HeartDid y'all see that yesterday. The EUR/HUF has a massive move lower for over 570 pips and I was able to catch that. I exited out of my position because I have been in the pair for a while now and think it is going to push higher. It is pushing higher now, so for now I am correct. But I think there might be a larger push higher. If this pair can hit 380 or higher, I'll likely get back in and start building up to a standard lot. The reason, the Technicals (monthly head and shoulders with price almost completing the head), Fundamentals (over 25% inflation, 13% interest rates, Hawkish NBH and the possibility of increasing rates), and sentiment (news, articles, thoughts, analysts are pointing to a stronger HUF) are all inline and providing support for each other. This strengthens the probability for price to move lower. This heightens my conviction in building larger positions on this pair as this might be an opportunity that I don't want to miss. Of course I am going to build my position in blocks and not just place one max position. I am thinking though, that the price might push higher because of the coming up ECB Rate Hike. But I am also skeptical that price will hit 380 (so, I might place an entry at 380.50). What would be good is to build a position above the 380, build a max position to have my average position above the 380, see price push to around 375 and place a stop at 380 (one can only dream). So now it's the waiting to see what price wants to do.
Short
by DollarSaenz
Is Bitcoin going to crash again?Hello Traders , welcome to the Bitcoin chart. Everyone around the world is bullish on bitcoin, but my views are totally different. After the bullish surge, everyone thinks we entered in the bull run but we are not. As you know the charts speaks, So in charts BTC is going to crash again and we are building a bottom right now . There's so much going on in the market. It's the bull trap i can say. As you see there is a massive impulse in the charts from last few weeks, now you'll see the aggressive drop. The whole crypto market is going to crash again in couple of weeks. Let it play out, don't get panic. Let it play out - this will mark the beginning of bull run. I'm not buying and waiting for the bottom. In my portfolio there are coins, which will give 10-12x in next bull run. If you want to maximise your portfolio , leave a message. Trade Safely.
by Mrshazee
2
EURUSD | Market outlookToday, the February data on the volume of industrial production in Germany were published, which turned out to be generally positive: the figure rose by 2.0%, which is significantly more than the 0.1% expected by experts. Serious upward dynamics was achieved mainly due to an increase in car production. Observers believe that the German industrial sector is recovering, and a large number of orders and lower energy prices may support it in the future. At the same time, the March index of business activity in the construction sector disappointed investors: the overall indicator for the eurozone fell from 47.6 points to 45.0 points instead of rising to 49.1 points, and for Germany it decreased from 48.6 points to 42.9 points. We also note the latest comments of Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), who said that food inflation in the eurozone is still increasing and is now a key driver of consumer price growth. Lane noted that its peak has not yet been passed, but said that he still expects it to begin to decline during the year.
Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
AUDCAD, LongPrice action is shifting from a bearish market to a potential bullish one. Price is currently moving within a decending channel which is at a level that has had a strong reaction too previously indicating that we could see the next bullish phase begin. To add confluence to this set up, we could see a H&S pattern which the Right shoulder could be in the beginning with a swing target of 0.93350 range. Look at the LTF for an entry that meets your trading plan. Thanks Trade safe ** If you felt this was helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more educational ideas and analysis ** Share your opinion on this pair by leaving a comment
Long
by ktlfx
1
USOIL OUTLOOK (27th - 31st March)With central banks having to promise they would deal with the liquidity crisis that is apparently everywhere and avoid another 2008-style meltdown of the industry. Crude oil prices came off their lows as the near-term outlook for the banking sector improved, easing concerns about an economic slowdown later in the year. Markets are also holding out for more cues from an OPEC+ meeting next month, with hopes that the cartel will cut production in response to a recent tumble in prices. Oil has failed to break supply at 70.11 for the past three days which price is likely suggesting the efforts to convince the public that all will be well are not exactly being successful. If price fails to break and close above 70.11-70.34 range I see selling opportunity towards major support at 66.85 if broken would see price tap into demand at 66.33-64.31 range where there could be possible reversal or a continuation.
TVC:USOIL
by Hybe7e
1
EURAUD, Failed breakout, Short the Double topPrice action is shaping up for a bearish run as price was unable to continue the momentum and fell short of a double top level on the HTF. Looking at the lower time frames we can see a potential H&S printing retesting the March high indication more bearish price action is likely. Look for a short to the lower trendline. Thanks Trade Safe ** If you felt this idea was helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more analysis and educational ideas ** Comment below and and share your opinion on this set up
Short
by ktlfx
EURGBP, Bearish H&S, Short term sellPrice action is in a down trend as we can see on the HTF price is moving within a decending channel. Looking at the LTF we can see a short term sell opportunity as price is potentially completing the right shoulder of a Head & Shoulders pattern which in nature is a bearish indicator. Look for a short entry around the neck line of 0.885 that fits your trading plan. Thanks Trade Safe **If you felt this was helpful in anyway hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more analysis and educational ideas** Comment below and share your opinion on this set up.
Short
by ktlfx
1
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Projected to Exceed $19 TrillionWave structures on these Economic Indexes tend to play out fairly often, such as in the case for Various CPI and Interest Rate Charts which can bee seen in the Related Ideas tab below. With that in mind, I now turn to The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet; and when I look at the Balance Sheet what I see is that since the Inception of this chart, it has traded within an Equidistant Channel that can be easily viewed and plotted in Log scale. When I look deeper into this I can also see that since around the end of the 2008 GFC when mass bailouts occurred, the RSI on the Balance Sheet has typically stayed Elevated and Above the Bullish Control Zone: meaning any time spent below the level of 70 has typically been followed by insane expansionary rallies, thus huge continuations in the rapid increases of the Balance Sheet. Additionally, it can also be seen that as of recent times (notably since the mid 2010s) the MACD has become a great indicator in the form of Hidden Bullish Divergences appearing just before huge continuations to the upside; these mid 2010 events align with the blunder that were the taper tantrums in which the fed ultimately capitulated on their monetary tightening stance and decided to expand the Balance Sheet Exponentially Higher and now looking at the chart we can see yet another Hidden Bullish Divergence forming that will be confirmed at the close of the month after the next trading week signaling that another big wave up is about to begin. Lastly, when zooming all the way out and taking in all the data at once, it can be seen that we are in what looks to be an AB=CD wave structure in which the first expansion was a 400% Expansion and the Current Expansion is on the way to being yet another 400%. We are currently about halfway there and the AB=CD Wave Structure would suggest that the Federal Reserve will more than double it's Balance Sheet by 2026 as the Federal Reserve capitulates yet again in an attempt to save the current fragile economic system.
FRED:WALCLLong
by RizeSenpai
3
Will the NZD/USD still be able hold above the 0.60 lvl?The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reinvoked the power of the interest rate hikes to continue the battle in bringing inflation down. This news push the USD near the 106 lvl and hit the NZD/USD, pulling price below the 0.61 lvl. This was a hit to my position, but I ok with the floating loss currently. In order to reduce my risk, I added a stop at 0.60 because my thought is, if price pushes below the 0.60 lvl and holds by the end of the week, then I don't think I wrong on my R/A on this pair; I am just early. What I am going to do if I do get stopped out, I would wait a few days, see if price is still pushing lower, and then start building my position again. My objective is to have a max position before price pushes above the 0.65 lvl, so getting into a position below the 0.60 lvl, I think is an opportunity. There is also the thought of waiting until the USD NFP and CPI are released and the FED Rate Hike, as this could push the NZD/USD even further down. I do need to work on my conviction and hope lvl. My hope lvl is around 55% and my conviction lvl is less then 50%. Since that is the case, I am not going to add anymore positions unless I am able to get my conviction lvl to 60%. I am still thinking in the near to longer term, price on the NZD/USD will push higher, but these two - three weeks are going to cause a lot of volatility. I have another previous published thought on the NZD utilizing the Monthly chart. I wanted to add the NZD/USD update on the daily chart also, in order to see the daily moves in the market and see if my plan pans out. Again, this is what I am thinking of doing and I am ok with taking the risk. Conduct your own analysis and take on the risk that feels comfortable to you. Y'all have some good trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
2
CADCHF, Bears to target 0.665 rangePrice action is shaping up for a sell opportunity as we can see a price is completing a bearish continuation indicating further downside is possible. Competition of this correction is also a 3rd touch on the upper trend line. Find a risk entry or a reduced risk entry that meets your trading plan Thanks Trade Safe **If you felt this was helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more analysis and education ideas** Feel free to share your opinion on this pair by leaving a comment below I appreciate all the feedback.
Short
by ktlfx
1
NZDCAD, Pullback to an area of value, look for sell entries Price action has pulled back an area of which we saw a strong impulse breaking downward from a strong structure level. Price has now retraced back to this area which we could see a nice sell opportunity. Wait for bearish price action and find an entry thst meets your trading plan. Thanks Trade Safe **If you found this idea helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more analysis and educational ideas** Share your view by leaving a comment below. I appreciate all the feedback.
Short
by ktlfx
Price on the EUR/USD is likely to break the 1.05 lvlThe EUR/USD is pushing lower because of Friday's USD PCE coming out higher then expected, and the previous reading revised higher. This is supposedly the FED's favorite measure of inflation, which gives the FED additional evidence to increase rate hikes. I do not think that the FED will be inclined to raise rates in the March meeting by 50 basis points. It will likely stick to 25 basis points. I am holding onto my positions (short side) and I am looking to place a stop at the 1.06 lvl. If price does break 1.05 (which is likely), price will be able to test out the 1.0450 lvl. At this point, I am deciding on whether I want to keep holding or not because I have other pairs I am looking at.
Short
by DollarSaenz
1