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USDebtCeilingCrisis.ComLet’s make some noise for the 11th hour party people. Bipartisan talks between US President Biden and House Republicans over the debt ceiling crisis have finally come to a resolution. Well, in theory at least since there is the small matter of Congress having to vote on it later this week. US lawmakers might balk at the idea that this is an 11th hour deal since the much touted ‘hard deadline’ of the 1st of June has now moved to the 5th of June. Any chances we could see that pushed forward by a few more days in the event of further brinkmanship during the Congressional vote on the deal? Make no mistake. Regardless of the real hard deadline before the US technically defaults on its public debt, this will have been an 11th hour deal. The thing with 11th hour deals whether they’re related to business, divorce settlements, ransom/hostage negotiations or drug deals is that they tend to be equally bad for both parties but at least everyone walks away equally disappointed. A deal as critical as the one needed to tackle the debt ceiling crisis should have been done and dusted well before this game of chicken ended in both parties swerving just before the head on collision. The US debt ceiling issue is a bubble. The limit has been lifted 78 times since 1960 and is quite the magician’s trick. Raising the limit each time a ceiling is reached and then kicking the issue into the long grass until the next time negotiations need to take place is dangerous enough but the way in which this current deal has been tentatively reached has created micro tears in this bubble and only time will tell if the bubble bursts at some point in the not- too-distant future. Even a smooth run through Congress later this week will be short-term relief for markets as the possibility of a crash depends on the extent of any liquidity leaving the system and where exactly that liquidity drain comes from as soon as the US Treasury turns on the T-bill tap to full blast after a confirmed deal. These are exciting times for FX traders as we trade the bull runs, the bear runs and the crashes. Keep yourself educated and informed at all times. And remember that whenever you go to the market, be careful out there. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
4
MARKETS week ahead: May 28 – June 3Last week in the news The saga over US debt-ceiling continues to be number one topic among investors and financial markets. During the previous week both EU and US equity markets gained on a possibility that the deal could be soon reached. On the other hand, the crypto market continues to trade in a relatively calm mood, for the second week in a row. Bitcoin is ending the week above $26.5K, and Ether above $1.8K. The debt-ceiling talks are still in the spotlight of investors, and a question of what sort of the deal will be accomplished. As per House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, some progress has been made, but more progress is needed in order to accomplish the deal. News reported on a possibility for the debt-ceiling to be raised for a period of two years. At the same time, the US Treasury Secretary warned on Friday that the US Treasury will be able to serve its obligations until June 5th, which is now treated as a new “X date”. As announced on Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 0.4% compared to the previous month, and 4.7% on a yearly basis. Considering that results were higher from market expectation, markets are now pricing a 25 bps increase of interest rates at the FOMC meeting in June. The German economy officially entered into technical recession as of the end of the previous year. Officially published data on German GDP show a negative trend for the last two quarters, which pushed the largest EU economy into recession. Economists are of the opinion that the trend of falling GDP should not continue during the course of this year, however, there are no expectations that GDP will grow, either. The National bank of Norway in its report noted that the regulation around crypto assets should be further developed. They commented on recently adopted MiCA regulation within the EU, which should get into force soon, and expressed the opinion that the national bank should react sooner than to wait for internationally accepted regulation. This comes especially taking into account collapses of stablecoins, like Terra, and largest crypto exchanger FTX. Cathie Wood, founder of the investment firm ARK Invest, commented at the Fortune`s Next Gen conference that the US is currently losing the battle within the crypto world, due to lack of a clear regulatory framework. The businesses around digital assets are moving away from the US, as Coinbase (COIN) received a license to operate in Bermuda and is looking for a way to further expand in Singapore. South Africa is another country in line, which has introduced a law on regulating crypto business. Starting from 1st June all companies that conduct business within the area of the digital assets, need to hold a regular license from the country's Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA). Such a move was generally perceived as a positive by local companies dealing with crypto assets. Crypto market cap The so-called X-date is now set for June 5th, at least per latest statements from Treasury Secretary Yellen. The negotiations are still taking place, while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy noted that some progress has been made but more progress is needed. This was enough for financial markets to enter again in a positive mood and trade accordingly. Although the equity markets gained on this glimpse of a potential deal in the coming period, still the crypto market continues to be in a calm phase. Investors are here on hold, waiting to see the final outcome of the debt-deal in order to position within the crypto market. For the second week in a row total market capitalization remained relatively flat. During the previous week, total market cap was decreased by modest $8B or 1%. There has been almost equal number of coins which gained and lost in value during the week. Daily trading volumes continue to be decreased, still moving around SGX:40B on a daily basis. Market is on a road of exhaustion, waiting for a specific signal in order to be back on the old road. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at 43%, where it has added a total $327B to the market cap. Previous week was one of the rare weeks on the crypto market when there had been almost equal numbers of winning and losing coins. However, both gains and losses were in a relatively lower range. Considering that overall volume of market cap remained relatively flat, it seems that currently there is more of a repackaging of current portfolios, rather than actual flow on or from crypto market. Bitcoin lost almost $4B in market value, which represents 0.7% of its total value. Ether remained flat with a small gain of 0.4% during the week, while BNB had a modest drop of $0.7B or 1.4%. Coins which gained the most during the week in a relative terms were NEO, surging more than 10% and was followed by Miota, with a gain of 8% in the market value within a single week. Tron also had a good week, with a gain in value of 7.6%, as well as Polygon, who surged by 5.5% w/w. On a losing side were Algorand, who dropped by 9.2%, while Uniswap was down by 5.2% w/w. As for coins in circulation, XRP continues to gain since the start of this year, adding 0.2% new coins during the previous week. Tether increased its coins in circulation by 0.3%, while Filecoin`s circulating coins were up by 0.2% during the previous week. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market was also traded in a relatively calm mode during the previous week. Short term BTC futures were down by some 0.6% on average, while ETH futures only modestly gained during the week, of some 1.5% on average. Longer term BTC futures had a higher drop from short term ones, of some 1.3%. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price of $27.305, which was 1.03% lower from the week before, while those maturing in December 2024 were down by 1.17% w/w, ending the week at price of $27.950. ETH longer term futures were traded a bit higher, around 0.6% w/w. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price of $1.834, while those maturing in December next year were closed at price $1.881. Range of prices for both coins between short and longer futures remains to be very tight. This indicates that markets are still perceiving future prices of both coins in the light of a potential recession in the US and tighter monetary conditions, from which the crypto market will not benefit.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
USDJPY I Positive US debt ceiling talks and weekly outlookWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
4
Decoding the Structure of the Federal Reserve System 🏦 If you've ever wondered how the U.S. monetary system functions and who runs the show, keep reading. In this article, we will break down the structure of the Federal Reserve System and help you understand how it operates. 🏦 The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It was created in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act and is an independent entity within the government. The Fed has a three-part structure, including the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). 1️⃣ Board of Governors: The Board of Governors is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System. It consists of seven members appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year non-renewable terms. One person is designated by the President as Chair and another as Vice-Chair. The Board's main function is to set monetary policy, supervise and regulate banking institutions, and maintain the stability of the financial system. 2️⃣Federal Reserve Banks: There are 12 Federal Reserve Banks located throughout the United States. Each Federal Reserve Bank serves a specific geographic district and is responsible for carrying out the policies set forth by the Board of Governors. The Federal Reserve Banks are overseen by a board of nine directors, six of whom are appointed by banks in the district, and three by the Board of Governors. In addition to overseeing the banking system, the Federal Reserve Banks also provide services to financial institutions and the U.S. Treasury. These services include processing and clearing checks, storing currency, and distributing new currency. 3️⃣Federal Open Market Committee: The FOMC is the most powerful body within the Federal Reserve System. It is responsible for setting monetary policy, specifically the target for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans. The FOMC is made up of the seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year to analyze economic data and determine appropriate policy decisions. Their decisions impact not only the banking system but also the overall economy. For example, if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates, it will become more expensive to borrow money, affecting everything from mortgages to credit card payments. Conclusion: The Federal Reserve System is a complex organization that plays a critical role in the U.S. economy. Its structure is designed to ensure checks and balances across its three branches so that no one entity has too much power. While the Board of Governors sets policy and oversees the entire system, the Federal Reserve Banks carry out those policies and provide essential services to the financial system. The FOMC, on the other hand, is responsible for setting monetary policy, affecting the interest rates that impact our daily lives. Understanding the Federal Reserve System is essential for anyone wanting to understand the U.S. economy. Knowing how the Fed operates can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their finances. With this knowledge, you can better navigate the ups and downs of the economy and protect your hard-earned money. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Will we break the range?Hi Traders! EURUSD is very quiet and looking for a direction. This may depend on fundamental news out later today with the FOMC and ECB speaking this evening. On a technical outlook, we have a bearish price channel with lower highs and lower lows, there is strong buying pressure around the 1.09630 area and strong selling pressure around the 1.10950 area. Whether we breakout to the upside or downside may depend on what we hear from both the FOMC and ECB. We will be listening closely to what they say and keep you updated with how the market behaves to both their respective announcements. Please make sure to follow, like and comment. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
Unlocking the Secrets of Fundamental AnalysisFundamental analysis is a method of analyzing financial markets that involves examining a company's financial health, including its earnings, revenue, debt levels, and other economic indicators. The goal of fundamental analysis is to determine the intrinsic value of a company's stock and make investment decisions based on that value. Fundamental analysts typically begin by examining a company's financial statements, such as its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. They also look at other economic indicators, such as interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending, to get a broader picture of the overall market conditions. One of the key principles of fundamental analysis is that a company's stock price should reflect its true value. Fundamental analysts use a variety of methods, such as discounted cash flow analysis and price-to-earnings ratios, to determine a company's intrinsic value. Another principle of fundamental analysis is that market trends and sentiment can create temporary mispricings in a company's stock price. This means that even a company with strong fundamentals can experience a temporary decline in stock price due to market factors. Fundamental analysis can be a useful tool for long-term investors who are looking to invest in companies with strong financials and growth potential. However, it is important to note that fundamental analysis is not a foolproof method of investing, and that there is always some level of risk involved. In summary, fundamental analysis is a method of analyzing financial markets that involves examining a company's financial health and economic indicators to determine its intrinsic value. While fundamental analysis can be a useful tool for long-term investors, it is important to remember that there is always some level of risk involved with investing.
Education
by glorias3972
EURCHF - Taking a chance on several daily rejectionsWhile the SNB hasn't really signals any policy change for short-medium term, considering that global inflation has started to cool down, there is quite a chance that they cannot keep hiking rate at some point. Meanwhile, the technical side of it shows a potential buying condition that hard to miss. As you might see on the chart, based on those conditions, I prefer not to take an aggressive approach. Waiting for the price made a new high in lower timeframe, or at least a new daily high would be better before taking a long trade. "Trading is NOT about how often you are right!! Trading is a mathematical calculation of the ratio of the results you WILL get to the risk you MAY spend!!!"
Long
by disaresta
2
USDHKD Could this be the next Swiss Franc?The Swiss Franc used to be pegged to the Euro until 2015. The ECB went on a money printing spree with its own QE and the SNB could not sustain maintaining the peg. So it decided to remove the peg and the Swiss Franc strengthened against the Euro more than 20%. This caught a bunch of traders by surprise (mainly because the SNB said it was committed to maintaining the peg) and even collapsed the FXCM branch in the US. Now, will this happen to the HKD peg? Maybe. But the difference here is going long this pair will have you gain positive rollover and if the peg is removed, then price will likely appreciate. If price ranges, then you will be gaining around 1.77% a day, which is pretty decent (especially if utilizing margin. Be careful with using a large amount of margin). As this pair ranges and the FED keeps rates where they are at, with a standard lot, you'll be seeing around $4.85 a day. That is HKEX:1 ,770.25 a year and since the margin requirement for the HKD is around HKEX:10 ,000 for a standard lot, that is over a 17% increase (a little less because you will need more to add some buffer room or you'll get hit with a margin call). But if built correctly, this could be a nice play. I have an entry at the bottom of the band in order to get price at a good lvl. From here I can just hold. Remember, these are just my thoughts and what I am doing. I could be wrong so conduct your own research and analysis. Have some good trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
EUR/HUF Some Wild Swings. Not for the Faint of HeartDid y'all see that yesterday. The EUR/HUF has a massive move lower for over 570 pips and I was able to catch that. I exited out of my position because I have been in the pair for a while now and think it is going to push higher. It is pushing higher now, so for now I am correct. But I think there might be a larger push higher. If this pair can hit 380 or higher, I'll likely get back in and start building up to a standard lot. The reason, the Technicals (monthly head and shoulders with price almost completing the head), Fundamentals (over 25% inflation, 13% interest rates, Hawkish NBH and the possibility of increasing rates), and sentiment (news, articles, thoughts, analysts are pointing to a stronger HUF) are all inline and providing support for each other. This strengthens the probability for price to move lower. This heightens my conviction in building larger positions on this pair as this might be an opportunity that I don't want to miss. Of course I am going to build my position in blocks and not just place one max position. I am thinking though, that the price might push higher because of the coming up ECB Rate Hike. But I am also skeptical that price will hit 380 (so, I might place an entry at 380.50). What would be good is to build a position above the 380, build a max position to have my average position above the 380, see price push to around 375 and place a stop at 380 (one can only dream). So now it's the waiting to see what price wants to do.
Short
by DollarSaenz
Is Bitcoin going to crash again?Hello Traders , welcome to the Bitcoin chart. Everyone around the world is bullish on bitcoin, but my views are totally different. After the bullish surge, everyone thinks we entered in the bull run but we are not. As you know the charts speaks, So in charts BTC is going to crash again and we are building a bottom right now . There's so much going on in the market. It's the bull trap i can say. As you see there is a massive impulse in the charts from last few weeks, now you'll see the aggressive drop. The whole crypto market is going to crash again in couple of weeks. Let it play out, don't get panic. Let it play out - this will mark the beginning of bull run. I'm not buying and waiting for the bottom. In my portfolio there are coins, which will give 10-12x in next bull run. If you want to maximise your portfolio , leave a message. Trade Safely.
by Mrshazee
2
EURUSD | Market outlookToday, the February data on the volume of industrial production in Germany were published, which turned out to be generally positive: the figure rose by 2.0%, which is significantly more than the 0.1% expected by experts. Serious upward dynamics was achieved mainly due to an increase in car production. Observers believe that the German industrial sector is recovering, and a large number of orders and lower energy prices may support it in the future. At the same time, the March index of business activity in the construction sector disappointed investors: the overall indicator for the eurozone fell from 47.6 points to 45.0 points instead of rising to 49.1 points, and for Germany it decreased from 48.6 points to 42.9 points. We also note the latest comments of Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), who said that food inflation in the eurozone is still increasing and is now a key driver of consumer price growth. Lane noted that its peak has not yet been passed, but said that he still expects it to begin to decline during the year.
Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
AUDCAD, LongPrice action is shifting from a bearish market to a potential bullish one. Price is currently moving within a decending channel which is at a level that has had a strong reaction too previously indicating that we could see the next bullish phase begin. To add confluence to this set up, we could see a H&S pattern which the Right shoulder could be in the beginning with a swing target of 0.93350 range. Look at the LTF for an entry that meets your trading plan. Thanks Trade safe ** If you felt this was helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more educational ideas and analysis ** Share your opinion on this pair by leaving a comment
Long
by ktlfx
1
USOIL OUTLOOK (27th - 31st March)With central banks having to promise they would deal with the liquidity crisis that is apparently everywhere and avoid another 2008-style meltdown of the industry. Crude oil prices came off their lows as the near-term outlook for the banking sector improved, easing concerns about an economic slowdown later in the year. Markets are also holding out for more cues from an OPEC+ meeting next month, with hopes that the cartel will cut production in response to a recent tumble in prices. Oil has failed to break supply at 70.11 for the past three days which price is likely suggesting the efforts to convince the public that all will be well are not exactly being successful. If price fails to break and close above 70.11-70.34 range I see selling opportunity towards major support at 66.85 if broken would see price tap into demand at 66.33-64.31 range where there could be possible reversal or a continuation.
TVC:USOIL
by Hybe7e
1
EURAUD, Failed breakout, Short the Double topPrice action is shaping up for a bearish run as price was unable to continue the momentum and fell short of a double top level on the HTF. Looking at the lower time frames we can see a potential H&S printing retesting the March high indication more bearish price action is likely. Look for a short to the lower trendline. Thanks Trade Safe ** If you felt this idea was helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more analysis and educational ideas ** Comment below and and share your opinion on this set up
Short
by ktlfx