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Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Projected to Exceed $19 TrillionWave structures on these Economic Indexes tend to play out fairly often, such as in the case for Various CPI and Interest Rate Charts which can bee seen in the Related Ideas tab below. With that in mind, I now turn to The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet; and when I look at the Balance Sheet what I see is that since the Inception of this chart, it has traded within an Equidistant Channel that can be easily viewed and plotted in Log scale. When I look deeper into this I can also see that since around the end of the 2008 GFC when mass bailouts occurred, the RSI on the Balance Sheet has typically stayed Elevated and Above the Bullish Control Zone: meaning any time spent below the level of 70 has typically been followed by insane expansionary rallies, thus huge continuations in the rapid increases of the Balance Sheet. Additionally, it can also be seen that as of recent times (notably since the mid 2010s) the MACD has become a great indicator in the form of Hidden Bullish Divergences appearing just before huge continuations to the upside; these mid 2010 events align with the blunder that were the taper tantrums in which the fed ultimately capitulated on their monetary tightening stance and decided to expand the Balance Sheet Exponentially Higher and now looking at the chart we can see yet another Hidden Bullish Divergence forming that will be confirmed at the close of the month after the next trading week signaling that another big wave up is about to begin. Lastly, when zooming all the way out and taking in all the data at once, it can be seen that we are in what looks to be an AB=CD wave structure in which the first expansion was a 400% Expansion and the Current Expansion is on the way to being yet another 400%. We are currently about halfway there and the AB=CD Wave Structure would suggest that the Federal Reserve will more than double it's Balance Sheet by 2026 as the Federal Reserve capitulates yet again in an attempt to save the current fragile economic system.
FRED:WALCLLong
by RizeSenpai
3
Will the NZD/USD still be able hold above the 0.60 lvl?The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reinvoked the power of the interest rate hikes to continue the battle in bringing inflation down. This news push the USD near the 106 lvl and hit the NZD/USD, pulling price below the 0.61 lvl. This was a hit to my position, but I ok with the floating loss currently. In order to reduce my risk, I added a stop at 0.60 because my thought is, if price pushes below the 0.60 lvl and holds by the end of the week, then I don't think I wrong on my R/A on this pair; I am just early. What I am going to do if I do get stopped out, I would wait a few days, see if price is still pushing lower, and then start building my position again. My objective is to have a max position before price pushes above the 0.65 lvl, so getting into a position below the 0.60 lvl, I think is an opportunity. There is also the thought of waiting until the USD NFP and CPI are released and the FED Rate Hike, as this could push the NZD/USD even further down. I do need to work on my conviction and hope lvl. My hope lvl is around 55% and my conviction lvl is less then 50%. Since that is the case, I am not going to add anymore positions unless I am able to get my conviction lvl to 60%. I am still thinking in the near to longer term, price on the NZD/USD will push higher, but these two - three weeks are going to cause a lot of volatility. I have another previous published thought on the NZD utilizing the Monthly chart. I wanted to add the NZD/USD update on the daily chart also, in order to see the daily moves in the market and see if my plan pans out. Again, this is what I am thinking of doing and I am ok with taking the risk. Conduct your own analysis and take on the risk that feels comfortable to you. Y'all have some good trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
2
CADCHF, Bears to target 0.665 rangePrice action is shaping up for a sell opportunity as we can see a price is completing a bearish continuation indicating further downside is possible. Competition of this correction is also a 3rd touch on the upper trend line. Find a risk entry or a reduced risk entry that meets your trading plan Thanks Trade Safe **If you felt this was helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more analysis and education ideas** Feel free to share your opinion on this pair by leaving a comment below I appreciate all the feedback.
Short
by ktlfx
1
NZDCAD, Pullback to an area of value, look for sell entries Price action has pulled back an area of which we saw a strong impulse breaking downward from a strong structure level. Price has now retraced back to this area which we could see a nice sell opportunity. Wait for bearish price action and find an entry thst meets your trading plan. Thanks Trade Safe **If you found this idea helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more analysis and educational ideas** Share your view by leaving a comment below. I appreciate all the feedback.
Short
by ktlfx
Price on the EUR/USD is likely to break the 1.05 lvlThe EUR/USD is pushing lower because of Friday's USD PCE coming out higher then expected, and the previous reading revised higher. This is supposedly the FED's favorite measure of inflation, which gives the FED additional evidence to increase rate hikes. I do not think that the FED will be inclined to raise rates in the March meeting by 50 basis points. It will likely stick to 25 basis points. I am holding onto my positions (short side) and I am looking to place a stop at the 1.06 lvl. If price does break 1.05 (which is likely), price will be able to test out the 1.0450 lvl. At this point, I am deciding on whether I want to keep holding or not because I have other pairs I am looking at.
Short
by DollarSaenz
1
My current plan_Focus in on the NZDHere is my current plan I am implementing. I am in a 30k position on the NZD and I looking at continuing to building until 100k. If I could get into my full position before price breaks above the 0.63 lvl, I think I'll be in a good spot. Since the CPI came out as expected, this might be able to give price a little momentum higher. If price is able to hit the 0.65, I would be able to place a stop around 0.62/0.63 and ride price higher (to 0.70, will hit this level, possible in the end of the 2nd QTR). For the EUR I am just using it as a hedge. I ad a 15k position on it, but have recently exited my position. My NZDUSD position recovered and the EURUSD was just used to hedge my position. If the NZD drops again, I'll likely add a 30k position on the EURUSD. Once I am done with the NZDUSD, I am looking to get into the GBPCAD. I am going to wait until price hits 1.70. If it does, I'll start building on that pair slowly. I am looking to build a 400k/500k position, because I am still on the side that price will break down lower and possibly be able to hit the 1.35 level. This might happen towards the end of the 3rd QTR, possibly in the 4th QTR. The reason being is the UK economy is struggling to keep going. Out of all the G7 countries, the economy of UK is pretty bad. I am still looking at the 1.20 lvl and if price is able to actually break that level, and last a week below it, the move lower will actually be on. Now after these, I think central banks will be done raising rates in the end of the 3rd QTR, they might hold on rates, but I think sometime in 2024, banks might start lowering rates. I am thinking that before then, Silver will likely be around 18 or lower, and I would want to build a decent sized position. For now, I am in the first part of this plan and I'll be updating along the way. This is my plan and how I trade. This is conveying my thoughts and of course this had a ton of risk. For one, I am hedging and I have experienced where both pairs I am in, divergence against me, and I lost money on both. I also use metal stops a lot, which if I don't catch it (which has also happened to me), can move against me hundreds of pips and that would not be a good day. I am just sharing how I trade and hopefully this helps provide some insight to other traders trading styles. Now that I think about, from writing the above paragraph, for my risk management, this is what I am going to do. For the NZDUSD, like I typed up above, I will use the EURUSD as a hedge. It isn't a natural hedge, but it does work as a good hedge (and has positive rollover on the short side). I will get into this pair at 2:1 (NZDUSD/EURUSD) ratio. I'll be utilizing a hard stop on the NZD if price hits 1.65 (I'll place the stop at 0.62). If price is able to hit 0.67 and I have a full position, I'll move my stop to 0.6450. If I am skeptical or I want price more room to move, I'll identify a natural hedge (possibly the GBP or GBPCAD) and start building a position on both pairs also. Since I think price is going to push lower on these pairs, I'll be able to hold them even if price goes against me (that would my NZD position would be in my favor). I could also scale out also. Ok, I am done now. Y'all have some good trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
EURUSD I Daily Chart Analysis & How to Trade It This WeekWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
2
Technical | Fundamental | EmotionalOANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD SAXO:XAUUSD Market moves on zig zag not straight Up A correction is a must Technical : Support : -1830 -1810 Resistance : -1870 -1890 Fibonacci / Important Levels : 50.0 : 1785 61.8 : 1747 Fundamental : -The whole move was caused by USD (Unemployment Data) -DXY Dumped (it needed a correction anyway) -It pumped more than expected (Manipulation / SL Hunt / Liquidation / Fear) -It Broke Trend line (if it stays there above the trend line for 2 Days till 14/March then the trend is confirmed (Bullish) Emotional : -Greed | Euphoric / Bulls -Sellers Fear / Bears -Hope / Bears -Ego /Bulls Keep An eye : -14 March CPI Data -15 March PPI A Dump is possible by 14 March/Tuesday (CPI) This idea is invalidated If (Gold Stays above trend line 1840+ Until Wednesday 15/March) *This is not an financial advice (Please make sure to follow your own Analysis) *If you believe the idea is good show some support to keep me motivated for more ideas
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LVL_BTC
Technical | Fundamental | Emotional | DataBINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P INDEX:BTCUSD Market moves on Zig-Zag Those who think it will keep going lower straight without retracement they are wrong (Sideway is possible) Fundamental : -Coinbase Sells (SilkRoad BTC Dumping) -Tax -KuCoin Fud -Binance Fud FUNDAMENTAL = Bearish (But things can change quickly) Technical : Retracement : 20,800 Resistance : 21,400 Support : 19,000 Emotional : -Market is full of fear and the majority is bearish -Panic -Bias Data : -Huge liquidity at 18K -90% Longs Liquidated -Interests are negative Keep an Eye : -March 14th (Tuesday) CPI -Mtgox BTC (April) -ES / SPX
by LVL_BTC
2
ASTR, is it Worth it?I am wondering if price will be able to push higher in 2025 or even make it until then. I like this stock because of the government contracts it has and it is a newer company. But it has a long way to go and with the interest rate hikes and the potential for a recession, price may keep pushing lower. But I am thinking space stocks are going to make the fore front in 2025 and this year will show which ones are strong enough to sustain. For now, I'll hold onto my positions and see what price does. If price moves against me greatly or this stock goes belly up, I am find with it.
ALong
by DollarSaenz
On The 1.60 level is holding on the GBP/CAD, but for how long?Price on GBP/CAD is pushing a little lower, but is still trading above the 1.60 level. The GBP/USD was able to break lower, below the 1.20 support and was able to hold. It is only a matter of time before the GBP/CAD breaks lower and I still think price is going to be able to do that. It will take about 6 months for this to happen, but in the meantime if price just stagnates, that would be great (I have a trade on this pair).
Short
by DollarSaenz
Will the NZDUSD be able to hit the 0.70 lvl this Year?This pair is one of my top focuses for this year and I almost let it slip by. After conducting my R/A this weekend I came to find out that the New Zealand economy might start over heating and the RBNZ is possibly going to be in a position to keep rising rates. The RBNZ is looking to raise rates to around 5.5% (at least that is what is projected). The data on New Zealand is: Annual GDP: 6.4% and ranging Unemployment: 3.4% and declining Wage Growth: 4.3% and rising Inflation Rate: 7.2% and rising Industrial Production: 16.1% and rising Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 and ranging Retail Sales: -4% and declining Housing Index: 186.2791 and declining The technicals are also showing a double bottom and a descending wedge which adds to the probability that price might push higher. Sentiment is also pushing more towards neutral for the USD as there are starting to be increased talks about the FED slowing down on interest rate hikes and being more dovish. The Fundamentals, Technicals, and Sentiment are lining up which push my conviction lvl around the 60% lvl which got me to start planning on how to build a decent position on this pair. I have a position on this pair already at 10k (I am look to build to a standard lot for now). This is what I am look at. If price stays above the 0.60 lvl, then it is highly likely that price will push higher. If price pushes below the 0.60 lvl by the end of March, then I don't think I am wrong, but I would think that I was too early. I would take my loss and retrograde for now and then come back in. My objective is to build a position up on the NZD before the 0.65 lvl (possibly around the 0.63 lvl, if lower, that would be ideal). If I am able to get into a full position before the 0.65 lvl, see price push higher to 0.68, and place a stop around the 0.65 lvl, I would be in a good spot to just hold onto the NZD and see if it pushes up higher. If this doesn't work, like always, back to the drawing board to update my plan accordingly. But I think this is a high probability trade that will last for a while. Like always, these are my thoughts and this is how I trade. Please come up with you own plans and ideas and ways to trade. This can be extremely risky and with the uncertainty in the markets, I could potentially blow up my account if I am not careful. Y'all have some great trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
NFP week and -0.10% Japan interest rate thoughtsJapan interest rate is at -0.1% vs UK interest rate 4% Where will large funds being swinging to, for better yields? Is there a possibility that an investor from Japan borrows money from local bank at very low interest rates, invest it in foreign asset classes for profiteering purposes? What will happen to the desirability of Japanese Yen vs other G7 currencies with higher interest rates e.g. Europe, USA, Canada, Switzerland, Australia & New Zealand? Technical wise, beautiful consolidation taking place above H1 Imbalance, slowly creating bullish structure. Guess what will likely transpire this/next week? Having said that, several US high impact news this week and NFP Friday. Its going to get rough and wild. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
Long
by XeroAcademy
2
EURJPY, Double Top Bearish Price actionEURJPY has been shaping up for a big sell opportunity as we can see price was rising within an ascending channel which impulsively broke downward forming a bearish correction. Double tops have been confirmed indicating more downside is possible. As we see many different target levels that price could test, it may take weeks for this sell to make its way all down. Take your profits as the market gives you, ensure proper risk management and exit criteria is implemented. Thanks Trade Safe
Short
by ktlfx
1
European Gas March 2023: Bullish and Bearish FactorsThe idea has two parts: fundamental and technical analysis . The latter is based on the weekly chart. On the fundamental side , several essential and minor factors affect and could affect March 2023 price change. Let's divide them into three groups. Bullish : Russian shutdown of gas supply to Europe Russia has cut its European flows for the last months so that a total shutdown would be possible. Russian gas remains crucial for the European economy despite the American armada of LNG ships. Freeport LNG plant Restart Shift The company plans to restore the plant in January 2023. A possible postponement would support TTF prices in the winter season. Limitations of US Gas Exports Last winter, some US Senate members suggested limiting or prohibiting US LNG export. They estimated that the change would increase US gas supply for the internal US market, especially for New England, which is dependent on the import of gas from the gas-production states getting gas via pipelines and LNG. They said the prohibition would reduce high gas prices for customers and industry. In July, LNG winter 2023 prices for New England touched a record high of $40/MMBtu, while Henry Hub traded at about $8.6/MMBtu. I suppose that senators would return to the idea, especially since the US elections are in November. Although the risk is low, its realization could dramatically affect the TTF price assessment. Analysts and think tanks have considered possible Russian gas cuts but haven't accessed a potential US gas supply reduction. French Nuclear Plants Outages Since the end of 2021, the French nuclear industry has been weak with planned and unplanned maintenance. As a result, nuclear output has lost more than 40% YoY of its output. While serious issues are unlikely to arise, new minor obstacles could buoy TTF prices. Dry Summer The continuation of the European 2022 dry summer led to abbreviated hydropower production. On the back of hydropower reduction, natural gas-power generation increases its output and gas consumption, driving subdued gas injection into storage facilities. Subdued gas injection in summer means less gas for winter, creating a possible gas deficit. Bearish: Slowing European Economy and Demand Destruction High inflation induced by the monetary policy of 2020-2021 provokes a decline in real incomes and makes some industrial production unprofitable or near break-even. These debilitate aggregate demand, particularly industrial output of fertilizers, ceramics, and other chemicals. Industries that are heavily reliant on gas are cutting their gas consumption today. Lasting historically high gas prices would promote a decrease in gas utilization. The demand destruction could happen among all consumers: power, industrial and individual. A new recession is near. ECB monetary policy with a growing rate also adds problems to the economy. The rate is still tiny, but debt bubbles are sensitive to interest rate change. The bust of bubbles would drop economic growth and curtail gas demand pushing TTF prices down. Slowing world economy The world economy suffers from high prices losing economic growth momentum. A move into a recession would trigger a decline in gas consumption lowering LNG gas prices and letting LNG producers increase LNG sendout to Europe. Voluntary Demand Reductions of 15% and Gas Rationing Energy ministers of Europe adopted plans to voluntarily cut gas demand by 15% from August until March 31, 2022. In case of emergency, like near zero Russian flows, the voluntary reduction changes to mandatory. i.e., gas rationing. The actions could divert rising prices. Covid Lockdowns in Europe Europe has prepared different measures to withstand possible gas issues in winter. Besides voluntary reduction or rationing Europe could return to the lockdowns of 2020, when gas consumption dramatically went down because industrial production of goods collapsed. Since June 2022, the media has published news about a new variant of Covid. Countries could impose Covid-related limitations this fall. Unstable gas consumption and gas shortage would drive for a Covid or climate lockdown. A good measure to cut gas demand and destroy the economy. Covid Lockdowns in China Despite possible lockdowns of 2022-2023 in Europe, lockdowns in China happened in the last months and could be imposed again. An effect of prohibitions has hit the Chinese economy and cut gas consumption resulting in freeing up the supply for other consumers, i.e., Europe. New Chinese lockdowns would mean more gas for Europe. Joker : The joker that could be a bullish or bearish driver is the weather. They can't predict winter weather today. Lasting temperatures above season norms in winter could be a lifesaver for Europe, dropping gas consumption and its prices. Cold spells and lingering temperatures under the winter season average would lift prices significantly. Near-average temperatures would put the significance of the factor on hold. While in summer, it is vice versa. Temperatures above the norms slow gas storage injection and slightly increase a lack of gas risk in the winter season. On the technical side , there are no resistance levels cause the contract is traded near its record high. Only psychological levels like €200/MWh , €300/MWh , and higher. On the bulls' side, there are many support levels. For those practicing buy a bounce trading , essential levels are €125/MWh , €100/MWh , and €86/MWh . The last one developed in the December 2021-April 2022 period. I estimate that Gazprom made a significant contribution to its existence. Gazprom's export price to Europe, which was pegged to a fusion of lagged prices of fossil fuels, including TTF, was near to €86/MWh . So when the market price rose significantly above the level, market participants cut their demand because Gazprom sold cheaper. When the price tried to break through €86/MWh and went down, Gazprom trimmed its flows to Europe. All in all, this helped the company to control its revenues on the same level. Since then, it has not been the case because Gazprom has changed its approach. Finally, I am afraid to forecast the price on the expiration date. I suppose the price would remain volatile, and we could see spikes above €200/MWh in the winter season. Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
T
by Nikita_Kalinin
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32
What should I look at in the Income Statement?The famous value investor, Mohnish Pabrai , said in one of his lectures that when he visited Warren Buffett, he noticed a huge handbook with the financial statements of thousands of public companies. It's a very dull reading, isn't it? Indeed, if you focus on every statement item - you'll waste a lot of time and sooner or later fall asleep. However, if you look at the large volumes of information from the perspective of an intelligent investor, you can find great interest in the process. It is wise to identify for yourself the most important statement items and monitor them in retrospect (from quarter to quarter). In previous posts, we've broken down the major items on the Income statement and the EPS metric: Part 1: The Income statement: the place where profit lives Part 2: My precious-s-s-s EPS Let's now highlight the items that interest me first. These are: - Total revenue The growth of revenue shows that the company is doing a good job of marketing the product, it is in high demand, and the business is increasing its scale. - Gross profit This profit is identical to the concept of margin. Therefore, an increase in gross profit indicates an increase in the margin of the business, i.e. its profitability. - Operating expenses This item is a good demonstration of how the management team is dealing with cost reductions. If operating expenses are relatively low and decreasing while revenue is increasing, that's terrific work by management, and you can give it top marks. - Interest expense Interest on debts should not consume a company's profits, otherwise, it will not work for the shareholders, but for the banks. Therefore, this item should also be closely monitored. - Net income It's simple here. If a company does not make a profit for its shareholders, they will dump its shares*. *Now, of course, you can dispute with me and give the example of, let's say, Tesla shares. There was a time when they were rising, even when the company was making losses. Indeed, Elon Musk's charisma and grand plans did the trick - investors bought the company's stock at any price. You could say that our partner Mr. Market was truly crazy at the time. I'm sure you can find quite a few such examples. All such cases exist because investors believe in future profits and don't see current ones. However, it is important to remember that sooner or later Mr. Market sobers up, the hype around the company goes away, and its losses stay with you. - EPS Diluted You could say it's the money the company earns per common share. So, I'm finishing up a series of posts related to the Income statement. This statement shows how much the company earns and how much it spends over a period (quarter or year). We've also identified the items that you should definitely watch out for in this report. That's all for today. In the next post, we will break down the last of the three financial statements of a public company - the Cash Flow Statement. Goodbye and see you later!
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Be_Capy
BTC Technical | Fundamental | Statistics | Emotional AnalysisBITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT KUCOIN:BTCUSDT OKX:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSDT Technical Analysis : We are currently at wave 5 After we finish wave 5 the ABC starts The Trend is up (We wanna make sure that we have a proper risk management when we start this position) Strong Resistance at 25300$-25500$ (We had 2 waterfalls in the past at this resistance) Fib Levels : 23.6 : 22700$ 38.2 : 21300$ 50 : 20200$ 61.8 : 19100$ Breaking 24200$-23800$ Confirms This “IDEA” Fundamental Analysis : -DXY is going Up with BTC which surprised a lot of traders (maybe the reason Behind this PUMP is Binance USD (BUSD|USDC) Coinbase USD we saw millions of dollars minted by them) -Today we have USD PPI/Job claims data released (16th FEB) -BUSD FUD news is in the corner it seems that we have a battle between Coinbase and Binance (Paxos seems in trouble) Data/Statistics : -At The moment Longs are more than shorts we could see more short liquidation at 25300$ -15B$ Liquidation at 25300$ (Shorts) -20B$+ Liquidation at 20800$ (Longs) Emotions Analysis : -Bears are in disbelief -Bulls are in profit maybe (euphoria) soon …. -Fear greed index is at (Greed) Thank you for reading maybe I update this idea in future I hope it helps some traders out there <3 *This is not an financial advice make sure to follow your own personal Ideas/Plans If you believe this idea is useful make sure to support it for more ideas in future Best of luck to Bears & Bulls
by LVL_BTC
1