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Stocks - FordIdea for Ford Motor Company: - We believe that a macro turn is here. - As the global economy moves toward Stagflation, and perhaps Deflation, investors will decrease their risk appetite appropriate for a Goldilocks economy, and will rotate from Momentum and Consumer Discretionary stocks to Quality, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Dividend Yields, and Defensives stocks. - We believe that Ford is an excellent defensive stock, traditionally being a dividend yielding stock and having being in operation for over 100 years. - Ford is a good pick even before moving into a Stagflation economy, because they have exposure to the Tech and Industrials sector, with their introduction of EVs, and their 13.9% US market share of the automobile industry, coming second only to GM. - Ford transitioned away from sedans, and announced that almost 90% of its North American model selection will consist of trucks and commercial vehicles. We believe that this is a most excellent choice, and are impressed by this decision making. - We foresee a ravenous appetite in the supply chain sector, due to (a) COVID shipping backlog, which will only increase should COVID mutate and cause further lockdowns, (b) nations moving toward domestic production, which will increase intranational logistics and infrastructure demands, and (c) a shift from a software-oriented tech boom to a boom in the industrials and capital goods sector, from what we perceive is being attempted with the US stimulus packages. - The price is technically in what appears to be a Wyckoff Accumulation Cycle, and is showing signs of strength. - We believe that a better entry is possible, as it tests support levels during market volatility which we expect, but still it is a good entry point for a longer time-frame. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
NYSE:FLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
5
The essential features of ETF’s In this article, we’ll go over some fundamental concepts about exchange-traded funds (ETF’s) . To comprehend what an ETF is and what its qualities are, we must first provide a brief overview of mutual funds. A mutual fund is an investment company that pools money from investors to buy a variety of stocks, bonds, and other securities on their behalf. A portfolio is a collection of the underlying constituents. The firms that create these mutual funds assign a manager to oversee the investments. The basic concept is to give smaller amounts of capital easy access to diversification through a single purchase. An investor purchases a piece of a portfolio of his choosing. From the perspective of an investor, the mutual fund is easy. They essentially submit the investment to the mutual fund corporation. If they use a brokerage account, they will see shares of the mutual fund appear in their account, or they will receive a statement directly from the firm revealing their fund position. The ETF's are a type of mutual fund that incorporates a number of more contemporary features. The first ETF listed on the New York stock exchange (NYSE) in 1993 was created to track the S&P 500 index. An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a pooled investment vehicle that is listed on a stock exchange, allowing investors to buy and sell its shares at a market-determined price during the trading day. They follow the same rules as any publicly traded stock, and they offer transparency and a central hub for all of their underlying asset classes. ETFs can be used to monitor the performance of an underlying index, commodity, or portfolio of assets. If you want to track a particular index, you don't have to buy shares in any of the companies that make up the index. Let’s look at the characteristics of this product structure and why it is taking the investment world by storm. The main ones are: 1. Transparency 2. Exchange listing 3. Tax efficiency 4. Lower fees 5. Diversity Transparency All investors benefit from portfolio transparency because it protects them from risk. An investor must recognize that no other fund product on the market gives a daily accounting of the fund's holdings like the ETF. Portfolio holdings were traditionally only published quarterly or semiannually. ETFs make their portfolios available to the public on a daily basis. Exchange listing There are three major benefits of exchanging listing: Standardization Intraday trading Liquidity Standardization is a huge benefit for holding the same multi-asset portfolios all within the same account structure. Instead of having two separate parts of your portfolio with associated problems, you can now keep your bond position wrapped in an ETF structure within your investment account. You can also include your commodity piece as well as your alternate options. Intraday trading has been a feature that has proven to be both beneficial and detrimental Liquidity - Listing a product on an exchange and introducing it to a broader range of market participants in a standardized format will increase liquidity and reduce spreads beyond what was previously available. In the market, you can often see instances where the ETF price is trading between the underlying basket's "bid" and "ask" spread. The ability to access liquidity within the bid and ask of the underlying assets is a benefit that mutual fund portfolio managers and investors do not have. Tax efficiency The major tax advantage of the ETF structure within the portfolio management process derives from the concept of in-kind “creation” and “redemption.” The process is complicated and it has to do with the daily operations of the ETF in the primary and secondary market versus the ones of a mutual fund. Lower fees The introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to the market has resulted in a large reduction in the fees that investors must pay in order to obtain a wide range of easy-to-manage exposures as building blocks for a portfolio. This is important for investors because it allows them to keep their positions without worrying about gains being distributed to other investors who are buying and leaving the ETF, as is the case with mutual funds. Diversity The thousands of exchange-traded funds presently available offer a wide range of exposures. Investors can choose from a wide range of ETFs to achieve their desired exposure. This could include anything from main indices to overseas fixed income, leveraged commodity bets, and everything in between. Traditional benchmarks are also evolving as a result of ETFs. ETFs are no longer bound by conventional index schemes. The industry has developed to question how each index is built and what benefit it provides to investors. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like , comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by financialflagship
57
CRM swing trade opportunity at $215Summary CRM ( Salesforce.com Inc ) has short-term upside potential and is a good swing trade buy. Downside No dividend High-end competitors are titans of industry as well like Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP while low-end competitors for small-and-medium-sized businesses include Freshworks and Zoho Upside About as "boomerish" as they come for Tech companies (without a dividend), in business for 20+ years Dozens of Analysts following and pricing on TipRanks Consistently positive revenue, gross profit, and operating income trends since 2015* Every company I have been employed by or contracted for with >2 employees uses for customer relationship management (or more) *all asterisk details based on MacroTrends summary of 10-K documents Technical Indicators RSI at 45 or below since sell-off mid-February 2021 with lows below 30 in early March MACD histogram approaching zero as price finds support in the $210 range Closing price, 20-Day SMA, 5-Day EMA, and 10-Day EMA are all beneath the 200-Day SMA TipRanks median price target is $280, which is about 31% higher than last closing price on Tuesday March-16, 2021 Conclusion CRM is a long swing trade opportunity with a conservative price target of $245.
NYSE:CRMLong
by danwagnerco
The Basic properties of BONDSA bond is a contractual agreement between an issuer and the bondholder. Owning a bond is like enjoying a stream of future cash flows. There are several important features that every bondholder must know before acquiring them: • The bond properties – issuer, maturity, principal, coupon rate and frequency, and the currency in which they are denominated. These properties are determinants of the investor’s expected and actual returns. • The tax and legal framework that applies to the contract between issuer and bondholder • The contingency provisions that affect the bond’s scheduled cash flows. In this article, we will focus on the bond properties and go through them one by one. Issuer Many entities can issue bonds. Usually, bond issuers are classified into categories based on their characteristics: 1. International organizations: World Bank etc. 2. Sovereign governments: The Unites States of America, The United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, etc. 3. Local governments: states, regions, counties 4. Companies: corporate issuers 5. Specialized legal entities Bondholders are exposed to credit risk , that is the risk of loss resulting from the issuer failing to pay the interest and/or repayment of principal. The issuer’s creditworthiness is rated by credit rating agencies . Maturity The maturity date of a bond refers to the date on which the issuer is obligated to pay the outstanding principal amount . A bond’s term of maturity is the length of time in which the bondholder will receive the interest payments on the principal. One notable exception is the perpetual bond , which is a fixed income security with no maturity date. Principal amount The principal amount of a bond is the amount the issuer agrees to pay the bondholder once the bond reaches maturity. The amount is also referred to as par value or nominal value . Bond prices are traded and quoted as a percentage of the principal amount. For example, if a bond’s par value is $100, a quote of 98 means that the price of the bond is worth $98. If the bond is trading below the par value it is said that it is trading at a discount . If the bond is traded above the par value it is said that it's trading at a premium . Coupon rate and frequency The coupon rate of a bond is the interest rate that the issuer agrees to pay each year to the bondholder until it reaches the maturity date. The annual sum paid is called the coupon . For example, a bond with a coupon rate of 3% and a par value of $10000 will pay an annual interest of $300. A conventional bond pays a fixed income rate. However, there are bonds that pay a floating rate of interest; these bonds are called floating-rate notes . All bonds make periodic coupon payments except for zero-coupon bonds , which trade at a discount of their par value and pay zero annual interest. Currency denomination Bonds can be issued in any currency although the largest number of bond issues are made in US dollars or euros. The currency of issue may affect the attractiveness of the bond, that’s why issuers from many countries in the world choose these 2 currencies to attract international investors and offset the disadvantages of their local currencies. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like , comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
TVC:US10YEducation
by financialflagship
77
GOLD (XAU/USD) BUY IDEAHey tradomaniacs, welcome to another free trading-setup. Notice: This is meant to be a preparation for you! As always we will have to wait for a confirmation! MY thoughts: Since fundamentals seem to put YIELDS under pressure, we could see a cashflow out of Bonds into no-Interest-assets again such as Gold and Silver. If Yields drop with US-DOllar we would get the very perfect circumstances to see a strong bullish impulse for Gold. GOLD (XAU/USD): Day-Swingtrade-Preparation Market-Buy: 1741,00 Stop-Loss: 1725,00 Point of Risk-Reduction: 1755,00 Take-Profit: 1794,00 Stop-Loss: 16 points (160)pips Risk: 0,5% - 1% Risk-Reward: 3,50 LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trading2ez
5
LQDT - Same thing over and over 🤷-Liquidity Services operates a network of e-commerce marketplaces. Its online auction marketplaces include: Liquidation.com, GovDeals.com, Network International, GoIndustry DoveBid, IronDirect, Machinio, and Secondipity.com. -Mainly Liquidity Services is popular for the auctions that they have for Amazon's inventory. -Wholesalers are buying in bulk from LQDT and then sell those products. Fundamentals: ROE --> 2019 - 2020: +78.88% increase Income Statement --> 2019 - 2020: +80.40% increase Cash Flow (operating) --> 2019-2020: +363.99% increase Entry point: 15.55 -15.60
NASDAQ:LQDT
by caldooninvestment
18
ZOOM- Bull Flag! 🐂After rising tremendous rates during the pandemic, Zoom got into a Cool-Down period. Now that the bull flag was completed it is set again for a good rise! Fundamentals: Income statement: 2018-2019 --> +298.43% increase 2019-2020 --> +233.66% increase Cash Flow: 2018 -2019 --> +164.24% increase 2019-2020 --> +195.90% increase Big investors are keeping a HOLD opinion on this boy, while the street seems to catch-up on the Bull Flag. Entry Point: In the short/Mid-term with the currently completed bull-flag we are keeping a BUY on Zoom. Long-term definitely a buy as well. Also, the earnings are coming up next month on 03/01/2021 which will add some volume to the stock as well!
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by caldooninvestment
22
LUMINAR - Lets Fly ✈️Luminar is one of the top Lidar Technology companies that been applied for an IPO. Recently they closed a deal with Daimler Truck (The parent company of the Mercedes-Benz). What is more attractive is that their Income statement grew by 24,862.07% from 2018 to 2019 and their Cash Flow went from -122.51K in 2018 to +6.76 million (5,620.22% increase) in 2019. Looks very bullish! We have added more shares today to our LAZR portfolio. Let's wait and see! Entry Point: Current Market Price
NASDAQ:LAZRLong
by caldooninvestment
16
Institutional Investors' Perspective on Bitcoin as an AssetIn this analysis, I’ll be going over Institutional players related to Bitcoin, which companies and people are bullish on it for what reason, and which others are bearish or against it. I’ll also provide a non-biased conclusion of how to view Bitcoin for your overall portfolio. What is Bitcoin? Let’s briefly go over what Bitcoin exactly is. Bitcoin is a digital currency that was developed for peer to peer (p2p) transactions. Unlike conventional monetary transactions, which occur through a centralized bank, Bitcoin transactions take place through blockchain technology, in which there is a distributed network of people who record the transaction information for rewards. The people who participate in maintaining this ledger are called miners. Arguments for Bitcoin Based on ARK Invest’s report, Paul Tudor Jones’ letter to his investors, Lyn Alden’s analysis on Bitcoin, as well as reports from Grayscale, here are some of the reasons why institutions are looking to add Bitcoin to their portfolio. The first reason has to do with scarcity. Water is a necessary commodity for life, but it’s not expensive, because it’s not scarce. Gold is not a necessary commodity, and has relatively less uses compared to water, but its price increases over time due to scarcity. Bitcoin has this characteristic as well. It’s scarce in supply, as it was programmed to have a supply of only 21 million bitcoins. In reality, there are even less than 21 million, due to a certain number of Bitcoins having been lost (kept in a wallet and forgotten by the owners). Because there is no central entity that can artificially change the amount of Bitcoin’s supply it potentially provides more value, given that there is enough demand. Additionally, we can see the network effect take place on Bitcoin, based on the Bitcoin dominance chart. Initially, Bitcoin was the only cryptocurrency, but alternative coins started to emerge in the cryptocurrency realm. As a result, it became important to refer to the bitcoin dominance chart (BTC.D), which is a chart that demonstrates Bitcoin’s relative value to that of the broader cryptocurrency market. In the purple Bitcoin dominance graph, we can see that the dominance percentage ranges between 40 to 60, during times of both bull and bear markets, which reflect the network effect of Bitcoin, and people’s views of Bitcoin as a digital asset or a digital version of gold, rather than a currency. Speaking of Bitcoin as digital gold, or a digital asset, we can compare it to Gold in terms of market cap. Gold has a market cap of about 9 trillion USD. Bitcoin stands at $288 billion. For a bullish case, even with a rough estimate that Bitcoin can grow as big as 10% of Gold’s market cap, that would grow Bitcoin’s market cap to $900 billion, which would price bitcoin at over $40,000 per coin (Refer to the graph on the chart). This analysis based on ARK Invest’s report has an underlying premise that Bitcoin will eventually follow gold’s characteristics as an asset. Of course, Bitcoin and gold still have massive differences. While Gold has a bigger and better network effect, a better image of a safe haven, and a real life uses in electronics and jewelry, Bitcoin has a finite supply, a characteristic that makes it safer as the network effect grows, and is easier to keep and maintain than gold. The second reason why institutions are looking into purchasing Bitcoin is due to the macroeconomic changes. People invest in gold because they view it as a hedge against inflation. Ever since modern society found out that the solution against deflation was simply to print more money, the real value of the currencies we use worldwide have been depreciating over time. In the graph in green, we can see the M2 graph, which is simply the money supply chart. We can see that money supply started growing at an exponential rate of 25% a year starting in 2020. This type of monetary policy trend is not confined to the United states, and is the most important macroeconomic factor that explains the bullish momentum in all markets, including the cryptocurrency market. Institutions are starting to see Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, and seeing value in Bitcoin as a digital asset. Lastly, it’s important to take a deeper look at how Bitcoin’s supply works. Bitcoin is supplied to miners who record transactions on the blockchain ledger. Bitcoin is granted to them as a form of reward for contributing to the network. Every several years, the number of bitcoins miners receive decreases over time. This is called ‘the halving’. In the first halving, which took place in November 2012, the number of Bitcoin as rewards decreased from 50 to 25. Then in 2016 July, the reward halved again from 25 to 12.5 btc. The third halving event, which took place this year around May, reduced the block reward from 12.5 to 6.25. The overall trend demonstrates that after the halving takes place, for the next two years, Bitcoin undergoes a bullish rally. Thus, given that the third halving event took place a few months ago, institutions have their eyes on a unique asset that is beginning another major bullish market cycle. We can also view the stock-to-flow model, which measures the relationship between the currently available stock of a resource, and its production rate. In the case of gold, the ‘stock’ we refer to would be the entire amount of gold mined throughout history, while ‘flow’ refers to the amount that can be newly mined. Gold, which is a monetary commodity, has a high stock-to-flow ratio between 50 and 60. The World Gold Council estimates that 200,000 tons of gold exists above ground, while the annual supply is around 3,000 tons. Bitcoin, similarly, has a stock-to-flow ratio in its upper 50’s, as 18 million Bitcoins have been mined so far, and since 330,000 new ones are mined every year. The good news is, this ratio will continue to increase, until it reaches over 100 around 2024. As for gold, we don’t know what the actual supply is. We could end up finding significant amounts of gold in North Korea. But Bitcoin is finite, with a supply cap of 21 million, which makes Bitcoin harder than gold. Neutral Stance on Bitcoin Ken Fisher, the chairman of Fisher Investments, was one of the few people who accurately predicted the covid-19 pandemic’s impact on the stock market, as well as a sharp V shape recovery. His stance is that he doesn’t know enough about Bitcoin, and that he doesn’t really need a stance on it, just as he doesn’t need a stance on other types of speculative assets. He knows that the cryptocurrency community (developers who lead the community) consist of extremely smart people, but he has seen smart people do stupid things in the past. One thing is clear to him; Bitcoin is not what a lot of its proponents think it is. By this, he refers to Bitcoin not having value as a currency, but as something else. He is right about this in the sense that the narrative in the cryptocurrency community has changed from “Bitcoin is going to be the next world currency” to “Bitcoin is a digital asset that acts as a safe haven against inflation”. Arguments against Bitcoin Two major figures that represent institutional investors emerge when discussing arguments against Bitcoin: Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates, the biggest hedge fund in the world. In 2018, Warren Buffett went on to say that Bitcoin is an asset that doesn’t create any value. Unlike a farm or a company, which leaves investors not only with what they bought in the first place, but also something that the asset produced, with a non-productive asset like Bitcoin, all you’re counting on is whether the next person is willing to pay you more, because they’re excited about the next person coming along to pay an even higher price for it. This is completely reasonable coming from a value investor like Buffett. One of his main investment styles involve purchasing large amounts of shares of a company, and profiting from the dividends over the long term. Ray Dalio, in a similar context, wasn’t overly bearish on Bitcoin, but did pose questions regarding his concerns. Dalio says that Bitcoin is not a good store of wealth due to high volatility, does not protect his purchasing power, and will most likely be regulated by governments should it threaten traditional fiat, not to mention the fact that he can’t imagine central banks, institutional investors, and businesses owning Bitcoins in their reserves or using it. His main concerns stem from the older narrative of Bitcoin as a currency, but as I have explained above, the newer narrative is that Bitcoin holds value as a unique digital asset. Businesses Businesses have recently started jumping on the cryptocurrency trend as well. Paypal (PYPL) has launched a new service that enables its users to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrencies. This is big news as Paypal allows cryptocurrency to reach out to over 26 million people, marking the beginning of a potential mass adoption. Square (SQ), an American payment solution company, has invested over $50m, claiming that Bitcoin aligns with the company’s purpose in that it provides economic empowerment, and encourages people to participate in the global monetary system. They ended up purchasing 4,709 btc, which is approximately 1% of the company’s total assets at the end of Q2 2020. Microstrategy (MSTR), a company that provides business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud based services, invested over $400m in Bitcoin through Coinbase. Interestingly, their investment profits from Bitcoin exceeded $100m, which is more than their operating profits over the past three years combined. Institutional Players One of the main institutional players worth noting in the cryptocurrency space is none other than Barry Silbert’s Grayscale. Grayscale is an asset management company that focuses their investments on cryptocurrencies. Aside from Bitcoin, they also own certain altcoins such as Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP, Stellar Lumens, and Z cash. Grayscale became the first company to offer a publicly quoted Ethereum investment product in the United States through their Ethereum Trust (OTCQX: ETHE), which was approved by the SEC. Prior to this, they had Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTCQX:GBTC) become an SEC reporting company as well. Grayscale’s assets under management (AUM) has recently surpassed $10 billion. While this is a lot for a cryptocurrency fund, this is still relatively small compared to the AUM of traditional asset management companies, indicating high potential for growth in the industry. Another player is Guggenheim Partners, a global investment firm with an AUM of $270 billion. They recently reported to the SEC that they had the right to spend 10% of their Macro Opportunities Fund to gain exposure on Bitcoin through Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust. This would amount to a $530 million dollar investment. In Grayscale’s reports “Valuing Bitcoin” and “Bitcoin Investor Study”, they also note the importance of Bitcoin’s role from the larger context of macroeconomics. They have noticed the number of speculators in the markets decreasing, while the number of holders increase, which substantiates the argument that Bitcoin is a good store of value. Grayscale’s Whale Index, which looks at wallets with over 1,000 bitcoins, also demonstrates an increasing trend, signifying accumulation. Bitcoin for Your Portfolio In ARK Invest’s Report, they conducted quantitative research on the correlation of Bitcoin’s price to other assets, stocks, and indices. They looked at the S&P500, Gold, Oil, Bonds, Emerging Currencies, Real Estate, Bank of America stocks (BAC), Apple stocks (AAPL), and Tesla stocks (TSLA). Results demonstrated that Bitcoin had very low correlation with all other assets, stocks, and indices that were compared. The only asset that demonstrated a moderate correlation was real estate, but this isn’t completely accurate either because ARK only looked at the price correlations for a short period of time, and thus did not take into account the long market cycle real estate properties have. (Real estate properties have been on a bullish rally without any meaningful corrections over the past 12 years) The fact that Bitcoin is not clearly correlated to any other conventional asset, security, or index is what makes it unique, and worthy of including in one’s overall portfolio. If so, how much Bitcoin should one own, in terms of percentages? ARK simulated over a million portfolios with different percentages of Bitcoin constituting each portfolio from 0 to 100 (Refer to the graph on the chart). The graph demonstrates annualized volatility on the x axis, and annualized returns on the y axis. The portfolio with the lowest volatility consisted of 2.55% of the entire portfolio as Bitcoin. The result with the highest Sharpe ratio (a ratio that demonstrates the highest returns compared to its risk) consisted of 6.55% of the entire portfolio as Bitcoin. What’s interesting to note is that despite Bitcoin’s extreme volatility, due to its low correlation with other assets, it plays a complementary role in one’s portfolio. In a similar context, an academic research was conducted by Aleh Tsyvinski, an economist at Yale, where he assesses Bitcoin using textbook finance tools to conclude the following: 1) If you believe that Bitcoin will continue to perform as well as it did throughout history, you should hold 6% of your portfolio in Bitcoin. 2) If you think it’ll do half as well, hold 4% of your portfolio in Bitcoin. 3) In all other circumstances, even if you think it’ll do much worse than it historically performed, since past historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performances, you should still hold 1% of your portfolio in Bitcoin, due to its massive potential returns. Mike’s Concluding Remarks I have been a big proponent of Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) for many years, and even from a realistic approach, this may be the best time to start looking into investing in cryptocurrencies. Especially considering that investors should and are looking for hedges against inflation, Bitcoin, which demonstrates little to no price correlation with other assets and securities, offers a very appealing investment opportunity. Moreover, the growing interests from institutional investors also suggest potential for massive corporate capital to flow into the market, which would eventually stabilize volatility in the long run. Risking 1-6% of your entire portfolio on an investment opportunity that could multiply is a calculated risk worth taking. As such, my final opinion on Bitcoin as a long term investment is a “buy”. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
15
BTC/USD: Euphoric Sentiment and Realistic Price ActionsIn this post, I'll be shedding light on a few technical and fundamental factors worthy of taking into account. For reference, check out my other post from September, where I discussed the importance of Bitcoin breaking the long term descending trend line, and how it should be considered a sign of strength. Bitcoin has been on a major bullish rally ever since March 2020, moving up close to 400% from the local bottom to local top. Interestingly enough, unlike past bullish rallies, there hasn't been much media coverage leading up to this bull run. This rally is also different from those of the past in that it's fueled by institutions, rather than buy volume from retail investors. For this analysis, I'll be providing my own thought of a probable scenario based on price action, market sentiment, and technical & fundamental factors. It's important to note that there is absolutely no guarantee that it'll play out in this manner. It's merely one of my probable cases. With that said, let's dive right into the analysis! Technical Analysis - We can begin by looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is an indicator that helps traders tell whether an asset is overbought or oversold - The RSI is currently trading at overbought territories, and we can see from past data that signs of the RSI being overheated indicates probability of a local top. - We can also count Elliott Waves on the weekly chart. Specifically, Elliott Impulse Waves (12345) - There are certain rules to keep in mind when counting impulse waves such as: - The second wave cannot go lower than the first wave - The third wave can never be the shortest wave - The fourth wave cannot fall below the first wave - Wave 2 played out by closing between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave 1 - We are currently seeing Wave 3, the longest impulse wave, play out - Not only is this sort of price action unsustainable, but also from the perspective of Elliott Waves, we could expect a possible correction soon - The fact that there is strong resistance at 18.9k substantiates this case - In terms of Wave 4, we could expect a correction down to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of Wave 3 - This is also the level in which the long term bullish ascending trend line, which extends from March 2020, converges with the fibonacci support.' - As for Wave 5, a rule of thumb is that we can expect the same degree of impulse wave to play out as Wave 1 Investors' Sentiment - As for the investors' sentiment based on certain phases of the market cycle, I recommend that you check out my previous analysis on Ethereum. - While it's technically a different asset, it demonstrates a paired market cycle with Bitcoin, and the information in that post can be applied to Bitcoin as well. - With the current parabolic trend, it could be said that investors are quite euphoric - Despite price actions not demonstrating any pullbacks, and moving at an unsustainable pace, many people seem to think that Bitcoin is going to break all time high levels easily - Unfortunately, the market does not move in straight lines. - Once the real pullback starts taking place, people are going to start thinking that this is just another failed rally - As such, to be profitable over the long term, it's important to identify significant support/resistance levels, and overall trends - A correction to 15.4k at this point is still considered bullish, but a 20% correction is enough to scare a lot of people away Fundamental Analysis - Some miners are selling their Bitcoins but not that many are, or at least not as severely as the past bull trends - The amount of Bitcoin deposited at exchanges is still at relatively healthy levels. - Normally, a huge inflow of Bitcoins into exchanges indicates that whales are ready to sell their bags. - Transaction dormancy also demonstrates that long term holders of Bitcoin have been selling their Bitcoin since the start of this rally after a breakout - Nevertheless, with companies such as Paypal (PYPL) and Square (SQ) showing institutional interests in Bitcoin, we could expect a bullish trend over the long term based on fundamentals. Summary In conclusion, I've taken into consideration a plethora of factors that point to one probable scenario, in which we'd see a correction before another rally breaking all time high levels. Nevertheless, since predicting the market is impossible, keep in mind all the probable scenarios, and simply respond to price actions. The future is something you prepare for, not something you predict. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Michael_Wang_Official
9
GBPJPY - LONGGBPJPY is in the upward trending channel, coming off a HL & a inverted head and shoulders pattern, I expect to see a bullish run after a pullback into previous broken S turned R. Investor fears over the Trump's health are easing while health officials expect to discharge the President from Walter Reed as early as today. Also, optimism over a fresh US fiscal stimulus plan is growing as analysts see increased urgency from both sides, House speaker Nancy Pelosi is pushing for the appeal as well. Asia's MSCI Pacific Index climbed 1.3% while Japan's Topix Index closed 1.7% higher. By 5:50am S&P 500 Futures pointed to plenty of green at the open, the 10-year government treasury bond yields skyrocketed.
Long
by edisonamb
Facebook (FB): An In-depth Analysis of an Undervalued CompanyIn this post, I’ll be providing an in-depth analysis of Facebook (FB), which was part of FAANG (Facebook, Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google (GOOGL)), leading the stock market since the financial crash up to 2019, before it was replaced by MAGA (Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon, Google, and Apple). I'll be exploring its business models, financials, weaknesses and threats, the technical analysis of the stock, and my final outlook on the company. Facebook has been under scrutiny for a while, due to issues regarding: fake news scandal regarding the US presidential elections, the violation of data protection laws in Europe, and advertisement boycotts. However, it seems that Facebook is ready for another run as a high-potential growth stock, through its diversification in business models and streams of revenue. Business Models 1. Target Advertisements Based on its tremendous number of users, Facebook has its strength in targeted ads. The ads provided through facebook are optimized through their algorithms, allowing Facebook to receive more money for ads compared to its counterparts. There was a time when Facebook’s ad revenue went up by 50% every year, but growth has slowed down to 10% a year. Nevertheless, based on the recent increase in users, there is huge growth potential as Facebook seeks to advertise in the field of gaming and e-commerce. 2. Increase in users Facebook is another company that benefited from the Corona Virus (COVID-19) pandemic. Its user base increased significantly; FB’s daily active users (DAU) increased by 13%, and monthly active users (MAU) by 12% compared to those of last year. Considering the fact that Facebook’s user growth rate was at a single digit, the increase in number of users demonstrates strong growth potential. With the number of advertisers at 9 million, despite the boycott, Facebook will be able to capitalize on ad demand from mid-small sized companies. 3. Family Applications Facebook owns other family apps such as: Instagram, Facebook Messenger, and Whatsapp. The monthly active people (MAP) for all these applications combined is at 3.14 billion, which makes Facebook the most used social application excluding China. The DAU and MAU for the family applications have also increased by 15.4% and 13.8% each compared to those of last year. 4. E-commerce In August 25, Facebook added a ‘Facebook Shops’ tab on the explore page, allowing users to directly purchase goods. This feature is also available on Instagram as well. This indicates significant growth for Facebook, as it incentivizes users not to open their own shops on Shopify or Amazon, but to open a shop directly on Facebook, which can provide a products page that is optimized for a mobile experience. Considering that the e-commerce landscape is changing to a D2c (directly to customer) format, Facebook and Instagram can easily be the largest market share holder. Also through the use of Facebook messenger, communication between the buyer and the seller is much easy, and live shopping, in the form we have seen in Instagram, is being tested as well. 5. Mobile Payments Whatsapp is launching a service in Brazil, offering payments that could be made to purchase goods, or wire someone money. Consumers can use this service for free, but companies have to pay a 3.99% fee. In the near future, we’ll see people purchase goods directly from Instagram and Facebook, and as such, Facebook has partnered up with e-commerce corporations such as Shopify (SHOP) and Big Commerce (BIGC). 6. Gaming Facbook’s market share in live game streaming has been showing a steady increase, and creating a creator community. They also have strength in the AR/VR gaming industry, as they have acquired the VR headset company oculus in 2014. The growth in revenue of these gaming devices mark a 40% yoy growth. Facebook’s diversification in the gaming industry will also provide them an opportunity for growth. Financials - Facebook generates 98% of its revenue from advertisements - Their ad revenue was less than $20 billion in 2015, but has since grown exponentially to about $70 billion in 2019. - While their gross margin percentage has been declining since 2017 due to traffic acquisition costs, it’s still close to 82%. - Facebook’s cash generation from operations demonstrates phenomenal numbers. - FB is a cash generating machine, and heavily reinvests that capital back into R&D, marketing, and infrastructure. - FB is free cash flow positive, with over $20 billion in 2019. - This means that the company has enough cash on hand to repay creditors and issue dividends to shareholders. - 71.6% comes from Facebook ads, 25.2% comes from Instagram ads - Facebook’s 2020 Q2 ad revenue exceeded expectations. While the cost of advertisement reduced by 21%, with the increase in user traffic, ad revenue increased by 10.2% compared to last year’s quarter, marking $18.32 Billion. - Overall, Facebook demonstrates extremely healthy financials with a mix of steady and exponential growth in their earnings Technical Analysis - To begin with, we can first see that the daily chart is testing the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement resistance - The SMAs are aligned in the order of – 20, 60, and 100 – indicating that the overall trend is an uptrend - Prices have entered, and bounced on the Ichimoku Cloud support - Counting Elliott Waves, we can see that an Impulse Wave Count (12345) has played out since the drop caused by the pandemic, and that we are going through a small phase of correction, potentially counting an Elliott Corrective Wave (ABC). - While a corrective move down to $220 levels around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support is possible, it’s not yet probable as significant support levels have not been broken yet. Weakness/Threats - Facebook is exposed to the threat of regulation risks regarding laws of personal information protection. - While Facbook aims to combine all its family apps for synergy, measures will the taken by the government to regulate such efforts, to prevent monopoly. - Apple’s new IOS 14 policy made it difficult for app developers to advertise their product on Facebook, and it’s expected that Facebook’s 2020 Q4 earnings will be affected by it. Final Outlook Overall, Facebook is a big corporation that still has huge growth potential by diversifying its business model. Facebook’s strategy to lock up users within their platform, install shops, and ultimately grow into a payment platform is extremely ambitious yet totally possible. While most people know this company, they are overlooking the growth potential it can achieve, and thus, this stock would be a gem for the long term outlook. 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NASDAQ:METALong
by Michael_Wang_Official
6
Short term Analysis on the USDThe DXY has been on a selling spree of late. Today, Powell said that it will take time to achieve the inflation target and that it will maintain its asset purchase program which stands at US$ 1.4 TRILLION per year. The balance sheet exceeds US$ 7 trillion which has never been witnessed before. When Powell was asked about the FEDs QE, he said that the current policy stance is sufficient and there exists flexibility to act more. This gave the DXY some gains during the day with the overall technical aspect pointing at a deeper upward retracement from all the selling. However, the sellers may not give up without a fight with artificial devaluation of the currency.
ICEUS:DXY
by GrizzlyBearBee