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Institutional Investors' Perspective on Bitcoin as an AssetIn this analysis, I’ll be going over Institutional players related to Bitcoin, which companies and people are bullish on it for what reason, and which others are bearish or against it. I’ll also provide a non-biased conclusion of how to view Bitcoin for your overall portfolio. What is Bitcoin? Let’s briefly go over what Bitcoin exactly is. Bitcoin is a digital currency that was developed for peer to peer (p2p) transactions. Unlike conventional monetary transactions, which occur through a centralized bank, Bitcoin transactions take place through blockchain technology, in which there is a distributed network of people who record the transaction information for rewards. The people who participate in maintaining this ledger are called miners. Arguments for Bitcoin Based on ARK Invest’s report, Paul Tudor Jones’ letter to his investors, Lyn Alden’s analysis on Bitcoin, as well as reports from Grayscale, here are some of the reasons why institutions are looking to add Bitcoin to their portfolio. The first reason has to do with scarcity. Water is a necessary commodity for life, but it’s not expensive, because it’s not scarce. Gold is not a necessary commodity, and has relatively less uses compared to water, but its price increases over time due to scarcity. Bitcoin has this characteristic as well. It’s scarce in supply, as it was programmed to have a supply of only 21 million bitcoins. In reality, there are even less than 21 million, due to a certain number of Bitcoins having been lost (kept in a wallet and forgotten by the owners). Because there is no central entity that can artificially change the amount of Bitcoin’s supply it potentially provides more value, given that there is enough demand. Additionally, we can see the network effect take place on Bitcoin, based on the Bitcoin dominance chart. Initially, Bitcoin was the only cryptocurrency, but alternative coins started to emerge in the cryptocurrency realm. As a result, it became important to refer to the bitcoin dominance chart (BTC.D), which is a chart that demonstrates Bitcoin’s relative value to that of the broader cryptocurrency market. In the purple Bitcoin dominance graph, we can see that the dominance percentage ranges between 40 to 60, during times of both bull and bear markets, which reflect the network effect of Bitcoin, and people’s views of Bitcoin as a digital asset or a digital version of gold, rather than a currency. Speaking of Bitcoin as digital gold, or a digital asset, we can compare it to Gold in terms of market cap. Gold has a market cap of about 9 trillion USD. Bitcoin stands at $288 billion. For a bullish case, even with a rough estimate that Bitcoin can grow as big as 10% of Gold’s market cap, that would grow Bitcoin’s market cap to $900 billion, which would price bitcoin at over $40,000 per coin (Refer to the graph on the chart). This analysis based on ARK Invest’s report has an underlying premise that Bitcoin will eventually follow gold’s characteristics as an asset. Of course, Bitcoin and gold still have massive differences. While Gold has a bigger and better network effect, a better image of a safe haven, and a real life uses in electronics and jewelry, Bitcoin has a finite supply, a characteristic that makes it safer as the network effect grows, and is easier to keep and maintain than gold. The second reason why institutions are looking into purchasing Bitcoin is due to the macroeconomic changes. People invest in gold because they view it as a hedge against inflation. Ever since modern society found out that the solution against deflation was simply to print more money, the real value of the currencies we use worldwide have been depreciating over time. In the graph in green, we can see the M2 graph, which is simply the money supply chart. We can see that money supply started growing at an exponential rate of 25% a year starting in 2020. This type of monetary policy trend is not confined to the United states, and is the most important macroeconomic factor that explains the bullish momentum in all markets, including the cryptocurrency market. Institutions are starting to see Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, and seeing value in Bitcoin as a digital asset. Lastly, it’s important to take a deeper look at how Bitcoin’s supply works. Bitcoin is supplied to miners who record transactions on the blockchain ledger. Bitcoin is granted to them as a form of reward for contributing to the network. Every several years, the number of bitcoins miners receive decreases over time. This is called ‘the halving’. In the first halving, which took place in November 2012, the number of Bitcoin as rewards decreased from 50 to 25. Then in 2016 July, the reward halved again from 25 to 12.5 btc. The third halving event, which took place this year around May, reduced the block reward from 12.5 to 6.25. The overall trend demonstrates that after the halving takes place, for the next two years, Bitcoin undergoes a bullish rally. Thus, given that the third halving event took place a few months ago, institutions have their eyes on a unique asset that is beginning another major bullish market cycle. We can also view the stock-to-flow model, which measures the relationship between the currently available stock of a resource, and its production rate. In the case of gold, the ‘stock’ we refer to would be the entire amount of gold mined throughout history, while ‘flow’ refers to the amount that can be newly mined. Gold, which is a monetary commodity, has a high stock-to-flow ratio between 50 and 60. The World Gold Council estimates that 200,000 tons of gold exists above ground, while the annual supply is around 3,000 tons. Bitcoin, similarly, has a stock-to-flow ratio in its upper 50’s, as 18 million Bitcoins have been mined so far, and since 330,000 new ones are mined every year. The good news is, this ratio will continue to increase, until it reaches over 100 around 2024. As for gold, we don’t know what the actual supply is. We could end up finding significant amounts of gold in North Korea. But Bitcoin is finite, with a supply cap of 21 million, which makes Bitcoin harder than gold. Neutral Stance on Bitcoin Ken Fisher, the chairman of Fisher Investments, was one of the few people who accurately predicted the covid-19 pandemic’s impact on the stock market, as well as a sharp V shape recovery. His stance is that he doesn’t know enough about Bitcoin, and that he doesn’t really need a stance on it, just as he doesn’t need a stance on other types of speculative assets. He knows that the cryptocurrency community (developers who lead the community) consist of extremely smart people, but he has seen smart people do stupid things in the past. One thing is clear to him; Bitcoin is not what a lot of its proponents think it is. By this, he refers to Bitcoin not having value as a currency, but as something else. He is right about this in the sense that the narrative in the cryptocurrency community has changed from “Bitcoin is going to be the next world currency” to “Bitcoin is a digital asset that acts as a safe haven against inflation”. Arguments against Bitcoin Two major figures that represent institutional investors emerge when discussing arguments against Bitcoin: Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates, the biggest hedge fund in the world. In 2018, Warren Buffett went on to say that Bitcoin is an asset that doesn’t create any value. Unlike a farm or a company, which leaves investors not only with what they bought in the first place, but also something that the asset produced, with a non-productive asset like Bitcoin, all you’re counting on is whether the next person is willing to pay you more, because they’re excited about the next person coming along to pay an even higher price for it. This is completely reasonable coming from a value investor like Buffett. One of his main investment styles involve purchasing large amounts of shares of a company, and profiting from the dividends over the long term. Ray Dalio, in a similar context, wasn’t overly bearish on Bitcoin, but did pose questions regarding his concerns. Dalio says that Bitcoin is not a good store of wealth due to high volatility, does not protect his purchasing power, and will most likely be regulated by governments should it threaten traditional fiat, not to mention the fact that he can’t imagine central banks, institutional investors, and businesses owning Bitcoins in their reserves or using it. His main concerns stem from the older narrative of Bitcoin as a currency, but as I have explained above, the newer narrative is that Bitcoin holds value as a unique digital asset. Businesses Businesses have recently started jumping on the cryptocurrency trend as well. Paypal (PYPL) has launched a new service that enables its users to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrencies. This is big news as Paypal allows cryptocurrency to reach out to over 26 million people, marking the beginning of a potential mass adoption. Square (SQ), an American payment solution company, has invested over $50m, claiming that Bitcoin aligns with the company’s purpose in that it provides economic empowerment, and encourages people to participate in the global monetary system. They ended up purchasing 4,709 btc, which is approximately 1% of the company’s total assets at the end of Q2 2020. Microstrategy (MSTR), a company that provides business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud based services, invested over $400m in Bitcoin through Coinbase. Interestingly, their investment profits from Bitcoin exceeded $100m, which is more than their operating profits over the past three years combined. Institutional Players One of the main institutional players worth noting in the cryptocurrency space is none other than Barry Silbert’s Grayscale. Grayscale is an asset management company that focuses their investments on cryptocurrencies. Aside from Bitcoin, they also own certain altcoins such as Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP, Stellar Lumens, and Z cash. Grayscale became the first company to offer a publicly quoted Ethereum investment product in the United States through their Ethereum Trust (OTCQX: ETHE), which was approved by the SEC. Prior to this, they had Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTCQX:GBTC) become an SEC reporting company as well. Grayscale’s assets under management (AUM) has recently surpassed $10 billion. While this is a lot for a cryptocurrency fund, this is still relatively small compared to the AUM of traditional asset management companies, indicating high potential for growth in the industry. Another player is Guggenheim Partners, a global investment firm with an AUM of $270 billion. They recently reported to the SEC that they had the right to spend 10% of their Macro Opportunities Fund to gain exposure on Bitcoin through Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust. This would amount to a $530 million dollar investment. In Grayscale’s reports “Valuing Bitcoin” and “Bitcoin Investor Study”, they also note the importance of Bitcoin’s role from the larger context of macroeconomics. They have noticed the number of speculators in the markets decreasing, while the number of holders increase, which substantiates the argument that Bitcoin is a good store of value. Grayscale’s Whale Index, which looks at wallets with over 1,000 bitcoins, also demonstrates an increasing trend, signifying accumulation. Bitcoin for Your Portfolio In ARK Invest’s Report, they conducted quantitative research on the correlation of Bitcoin’s price to other assets, stocks, and indices. They looked at the S&P500, Gold, Oil, Bonds, Emerging Currencies, Real Estate, Bank of America stocks (BAC), Apple stocks (AAPL), and Tesla stocks (TSLA). Results demonstrated that Bitcoin had very low correlation with all other assets, stocks, and indices that were compared. The only asset that demonstrated a moderate correlation was real estate, but this isn’t completely accurate either because ARK only looked at the price correlations for a short period of time, and thus did not take into account the long market cycle real estate properties have. (Real estate properties have been on a bullish rally without any meaningful corrections over the past 12 years) The fact that Bitcoin is not clearly correlated to any other conventional asset, security, or index is what makes it unique, and worthy of including in one’s overall portfolio. If so, how much Bitcoin should one own, in terms of percentages? ARK simulated over a million portfolios with different percentages of Bitcoin constituting each portfolio from 0 to 100 (Refer to the graph on the chart). The graph demonstrates annualized volatility on the x axis, and annualized returns on the y axis. The portfolio with the lowest volatility consisted of 2.55% of the entire portfolio as Bitcoin. The result with the highest Sharpe ratio (a ratio that demonstrates the highest returns compared to its risk) consisted of 6.55% of the entire portfolio as Bitcoin. What’s interesting to note is that despite Bitcoin’s extreme volatility, due to its low correlation with other assets, it plays a complementary role in one’s portfolio. In a similar context, an academic research was conducted by Aleh Tsyvinski, an economist at Yale, where he assesses Bitcoin using textbook finance tools to conclude the following: 1) If you believe that Bitcoin will continue to perform as well as it did throughout history, you should hold 6% of your portfolio in Bitcoin. 2) If you think it’ll do half as well, hold 4% of your portfolio in Bitcoin. 3) In all other circumstances, even if you think it’ll do much worse than it historically performed, since past historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performances, you should still hold 1% of your portfolio in Bitcoin, due to its massive potential returns. Mike’s Concluding Remarks I have been a big proponent of Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) for many years, and even from a realistic approach, this may be the best time to start looking into investing in cryptocurrencies. Especially considering that investors should and are looking for hedges against inflation, Bitcoin, which demonstrates little to no price correlation with other assets and securities, offers a very appealing investment opportunity. Moreover, the growing interests from institutional investors also suggest potential for massive corporate capital to flow into the market, which would eventually stabilize volatility in the long run. Risking 1-6% of your entire portfolio on an investment opportunity that could multiply is a calculated risk worth taking. As such, my final opinion on Bitcoin as a long term investment is a “buy”. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
15
BTC/USD: Euphoric Sentiment and Realistic Price ActionsIn this post, I'll be shedding light on a few technical and fundamental factors worthy of taking into account. For reference, check out my other post from September, where I discussed the importance of Bitcoin breaking the long term descending trend line, and how it should be considered a sign of strength. Bitcoin has been on a major bullish rally ever since March 2020, moving up close to 400% from the local bottom to local top. Interestingly enough, unlike past bullish rallies, there hasn't been much media coverage leading up to this bull run. This rally is also different from those of the past in that it's fueled by institutions, rather than buy volume from retail investors. For this analysis, I'll be providing my own thought of a probable scenario based on price action, market sentiment, and technical & fundamental factors. It's important to note that there is absolutely no guarantee that it'll play out in this manner. It's merely one of my probable cases. With that said, let's dive right into the analysis! Technical Analysis - We can begin by looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is an indicator that helps traders tell whether an asset is overbought or oversold - The RSI is currently trading at overbought territories, and we can see from past data that signs of the RSI being overheated indicates probability of a local top. - We can also count Elliott Waves on the weekly chart. Specifically, Elliott Impulse Waves (12345) - There are certain rules to keep in mind when counting impulse waves such as: - The second wave cannot go lower than the first wave - The third wave can never be the shortest wave - The fourth wave cannot fall below the first wave - Wave 2 played out by closing between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave 1 - We are currently seeing Wave 3, the longest impulse wave, play out - Not only is this sort of price action unsustainable, but also from the perspective of Elliott Waves, we could expect a possible correction soon - The fact that there is strong resistance at 18.9k substantiates this case - In terms of Wave 4, we could expect a correction down to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of Wave 3 - This is also the level in which the long term bullish ascending trend line, which extends from March 2020, converges with the fibonacci support.' - As for Wave 5, a rule of thumb is that we can expect the same degree of impulse wave to play out as Wave 1 Investors' Sentiment - As for the investors' sentiment based on certain phases of the market cycle, I recommend that you check out my previous analysis on Ethereum. - While it's technically a different asset, it demonstrates a paired market cycle with Bitcoin, and the information in that post can be applied to Bitcoin as well. - With the current parabolic trend, it could be said that investors are quite euphoric - Despite price actions not demonstrating any pullbacks, and moving at an unsustainable pace, many people seem to think that Bitcoin is going to break all time high levels easily - Unfortunately, the market does not move in straight lines. - Once the real pullback starts taking place, people are going to start thinking that this is just another failed rally - As such, to be profitable over the long term, it's important to identify significant support/resistance levels, and overall trends - A correction to 15.4k at this point is still considered bullish, but a 20% correction is enough to scare a lot of people away Fundamental Analysis - Some miners are selling their Bitcoins but not that many are, or at least not as severely as the past bull trends - The amount of Bitcoin deposited at exchanges is still at relatively healthy levels. - Normally, a huge inflow of Bitcoins into exchanges indicates that whales are ready to sell their bags. - Transaction dormancy also demonstrates that long term holders of Bitcoin have been selling their Bitcoin since the start of this rally after a breakout - Nevertheless, with companies such as Paypal (PYPL) and Square (SQ) showing institutional interests in Bitcoin, we could expect a bullish trend over the long term based on fundamentals. Summary In conclusion, I've taken into consideration a plethora of factors that point to one probable scenario, in which we'd see a correction before another rally breaking all time high levels. Nevertheless, since predicting the market is impossible, keep in mind all the probable scenarios, and simply respond to price actions. The future is something you prepare for, not something you predict. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Michael_Wang_Official
9
GBPJPY - LONGGBPJPY is in the upward trending channel, coming off a HL & a inverted head and shoulders pattern, I expect to see a bullish run after a pullback into previous broken S turned R. Investor fears over the Trump's health are easing while health officials expect to discharge the President from Walter Reed as early as today. Also, optimism over a fresh US fiscal stimulus plan is growing as analysts see increased urgency from both sides, House speaker Nancy Pelosi is pushing for the appeal as well. Asia's MSCI Pacific Index climbed 1.3% while Japan's Topix Index closed 1.7% higher. By 5:50am S&P 500 Futures pointed to plenty of green at the open, the 10-year government treasury bond yields skyrocketed.
Long
by edisonamb
Facebook (FB): An In-depth Analysis of an Undervalued CompanyIn this post, I’ll be providing an in-depth analysis of Facebook (FB), which was part of FAANG (Facebook, Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google (GOOGL)), leading the stock market since the financial crash up to 2019, before it was replaced by MAGA (Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon, Google, and Apple). I'll be exploring its business models, financials, weaknesses and threats, the technical analysis of the stock, and my final outlook on the company. Facebook has been under scrutiny for a while, due to issues regarding: fake news scandal regarding the US presidential elections, the violation of data protection laws in Europe, and advertisement boycotts. However, it seems that Facebook is ready for another run as a high-potential growth stock, through its diversification in business models and streams of revenue. Business Models 1. Target Advertisements Based on its tremendous number of users, Facebook has its strength in targeted ads. The ads provided through facebook are optimized through their algorithms, allowing Facebook to receive more money for ads compared to its counterparts. There was a time when Facebook’s ad revenue went up by 50% every year, but growth has slowed down to 10% a year. Nevertheless, based on the recent increase in users, there is huge growth potential as Facebook seeks to advertise in the field of gaming and e-commerce. 2. Increase in users Facebook is another company that benefited from the Corona Virus (COVID-19) pandemic. Its user base increased significantly; FB’s daily active users (DAU) increased by 13%, and monthly active users (MAU) by 12% compared to those of last year. Considering the fact that Facebook’s user growth rate was at a single digit, the increase in number of users demonstrates strong growth potential. With the number of advertisers at 9 million, despite the boycott, Facebook will be able to capitalize on ad demand from mid-small sized companies. 3. Family Applications Facebook owns other family apps such as: Instagram, Facebook Messenger, and Whatsapp. The monthly active people (MAP) for all these applications combined is at 3.14 billion, which makes Facebook the most used social application excluding China. The DAU and MAU for the family applications have also increased by 15.4% and 13.8% each compared to those of last year. 4. E-commerce In August 25, Facebook added a ‘Facebook Shops’ tab on the explore page, allowing users to directly purchase goods. This feature is also available on Instagram as well. This indicates significant growth for Facebook, as it incentivizes users not to open their own shops on Shopify or Amazon, but to open a shop directly on Facebook, which can provide a products page that is optimized for a mobile experience. Considering that the e-commerce landscape is changing to a D2c (directly to customer) format, Facebook and Instagram can easily be the largest market share holder. Also through the use of Facebook messenger, communication between the buyer and the seller is much easy, and live shopping, in the form we have seen in Instagram, is being tested as well. 5. Mobile Payments Whatsapp is launching a service in Brazil, offering payments that could be made to purchase goods, or wire someone money. Consumers can use this service for free, but companies have to pay a 3.99% fee. In the near future, we’ll see people purchase goods directly from Instagram and Facebook, and as such, Facebook has partnered up with e-commerce corporations such as Shopify (SHOP) and Big Commerce (BIGC). 6. Gaming Facbook’s market share in live game streaming has been showing a steady increase, and creating a creator community. They also have strength in the AR/VR gaming industry, as they have acquired the VR headset company oculus in 2014. The growth in revenue of these gaming devices mark a 40% yoy growth. Facebook’s diversification in the gaming industry will also provide them an opportunity for growth. Financials - Facebook generates 98% of its revenue from advertisements - Their ad revenue was less than $20 billion in 2015, but has since grown exponentially to about $70 billion in 2019. - While their gross margin percentage has been declining since 2017 due to traffic acquisition costs, it’s still close to 82%. - Facebook’s cash generation from operations demonstrates phenomenal numbers. - FB is a cash generating machine, and heavily reinvests that capital back into R&D, marketing, and infrastructure. - FB is free cash flow positive, with over $20 billion in 2019. - This means that the company has enough cash on hand to repay creditors and issue dividends to shareholders. - 71.6% comes from Facebook ads, 25.2% comes from Instagram ads - Facebook’s 2020 Q2 ad revenue exceeded expectations. While the cost of advertisement reduced by 21%, with the increase in user traffic, ad revenue increased by 10.2% compared to last year’s quarter, marking $18.32 Billion. - Overall, Facebook demonstrates extremely healthy financials with a mix of steady and exponential growth in their earnings Technical Analysis - To begin with, we can first see that the daily chart is testing the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement resistance - The SMAs are aligned in the order of – 20, 60, and 100 – indicating that the overall trend is an uptrend - Prices have entered, and bounced on the Ichimoku Cloud support - Counting Elliott Waves, we can see that an Impulse Wave Count (12345) has played out since the drop caused by the pandemic, and that we are going through a small phase of correction, potentially counting an Elliott Corrective Wave (ABC). - While a corrective move down to $220 levels around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support is possible, it’s not yet probable as significant support levels have not been broken yet. Weakness/Threats - Facebook is exposed to the threat of regulation risks regarding laws of personal information protection. - While Facbook aims to combine all its family apps for synergy, measures will the taken by the government to regulate such efforts, to prevent monopoly. - Apple’s new IOS 14 policy made it difficult for app developers to advertise their product on Facebook, and it’s expected that Facebook’s 2020 Q4 earnings will be affected by it. Final Outlook Overall, Facebook is a big corporation that still has huge growth potential by diversifying its business model. Facebook’s strategy to lock up users within their platform, install shops, and ultimately grow into a payment platform is extremely ambitious yet totally possible. While most people know this company, they are overlooking the growth potential it can achieve, and thus, this stock would be a gem for the long term outlook. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Michael_Wang_Official
6
Short term Analysis on the USDThe DXY has been on a selling spree of late. Today, Powell said that it will take time to achieve the inflation target and that it will maintain its asset purchase program which stands at US$ 1.4 TRILLION per year. The balance sheet exceeds US$ 7 trillion which has never been witnessed before. When Powell was asked about the FEDs QE, he said that the current policy stance is sufficient and there exists flexibility to act more. This gave the DXY some gains during the day with the overall technical aspect pointing at a deeper upward retracement from all the selling. However, the sellers may not give up without a fight with artificial devaluation of the currency.
ICEUS:DXY
by GrizzlyBearBee
I wouldn't overlook the YEN strengthPrice is currently breaching a trend line connecting two major pivot lows of 2020. If the daily candle closes below the July pivot Low, it could open up the March pivot Low 🎯. It's important to note that the pair is still within a descending flat-bottomed pattern (descending triangle). The JPY is expected to be strong with the candidate best positioned to succeed Shinzo Abe promising to maintain Abe's economic policies. The USD on the other hand is facing pressure from US FED actions to reduce the impact of covid.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
EURGBP BUY IDEAAfter piercing through a resistance area last week, it is currently testing this level which is now a support. The level is in confluence with the fibonacci retracement at the 0.382 to 0.5 levels. The pair is expected to complete last week's impulse. A higher target remains in sight in the medium term. The 💶 has faced massive buying of long positions by speculators in the past few months. It's hard to tell whether banks are in profit taking mode before a deeper retracement on the EURUSD or accumulation mode to go after the 1.25 target consensus by analysts for 2020-2021. The GBP is under a lot of pressure with Brexit and the impact covid on the 🇬🇧 economy weighing heavily on the Cable. Looking at the pair from both fundamental and technical perspectives, I will be looking for a buying opportunity.
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. (Thanks to NxjaUNHaCucnyxaB’s insightful comment last week.) 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral to overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. (Note: The R:R for betting trend changes simply doesn’t appeal to me. Yes, you can bet it every time and never miss a large movement, but you also need to deal with the 30-40% win rate and high operational/execution risks.) 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: A ridiculous amount of longs were present at the 11.5k level, and a "likely long squeeze alert" appeared before the drop to 10k. Currently, the margin market is overly bearish, but not enough people is on board with the “bearishness” so we do need the open interest to pick up a bit to fuel an ideal short squeeze. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, last week’s drop doesn’t impact this group turning bullish after 3 months of indecisiveness. The position is for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. Check out the March resemblance. 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25 from 9.6k to 9.9k. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Key Technicals: 1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below this level, trend will likely turn bearish). 2. Elliot wave: likely in wave (ii) of III. Wave (ii) currently counted as a zigzag and is potentially finished. 3. RSI neutral to bearish: Failing the RSI MAs and in a bearish trend. However, for the short-term, an upward attempt at the MAs is needed. Meaning I'm leaning bullish for the week ahead. 4. MACD bearish: In bearish trend. No sign of up-cross yet. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
79
A clear trend with strong FundamentalsBacked by strong fundamentals, KAVA is one of the most promising coin of the year. With an established uptrend, we recently experienced an over extended increase in the price, resulting in a retrace. We can notice the old resistance trendline (blue) has been turning into a support for the uptrend. The EMA200 is supporting the uptrend as well. Our strategy will be to take some positions on the support trendline and to add more once the local resistance (0.00025089) has been broken.
Long
by NovaBlocks
4
Who drive BTC Price vs. Value? First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! There are two group of people in the crypto space: long-term investors and short-term speculators. One often overlooked fact is while short-term speculators dominate the actively daily traded BTC, long-term investors actually dominate the entire BTC holding. Understanding how these two groups contribute to BTC value and price separately is crucial in profiting in the long run. “Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” – Warren Buffett Are you a long-term investor or a short-term speculator? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! =========================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain on-chain data analysis! ===========================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Phi-Deltalytics
25
BTC: FA & TA SetupsFirst of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Summary: We think BTC will likely fluctuate within the 9k – 10.5k range this coming week. The fundamentals are looking more bullish compared to last week. From the technical analysis perspective, we believe we are at key support, with a 0.4-0.5k bear trap zone beneath. Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: We are now seeing pickups in the on-chain smart money actions. With on-chain vol finding support and stabilizing, we are bullish for the long term. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Overall Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is quite rational right now with not much bias. 4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment: Selling in profit and in bull trend. We picked up alerts of decreasing selling pressure a few days ago, and this is bullish for the short term. 5. Margin Market Actions We have a potential for short squeeze. This is bullish for the short term. 6. SPX impact: See the ideas linked at the bottom. Key Technicals: 1. Strong support at trendline crossover 2. Target: 10.5k for this week 3. Wave developments: We’ll likely keep on developing wave4 this week, fluctuating between 9k – 10.5k. 4. Oscillators at key support What’s your view on the week ahead? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
60
EURNZD WEEKLY ANALYSIS! (SHORT SETUP ON H4 TIMEFRAME)Good day traders, I hope you all have a great weekend ahead and plan your trading strategy week ahead! From weekly perspective, price has retested the key level which is at 1.7641 and ready to go to the downside. In H4 timeframe, price is moving in a down channel. Therefore, in order to find a good short setup, price has to break the minor uptrend as shown in the chart and retest 1.7437 to potentially form a head and shoulder. Entry price: 1.7432 SL: 1.7667 TP: 1.7192 Always go for a clear trading strategy and enter trade with good risk management. It's always you versus yourself instead of you versus the market.
Short
by ChinSengFx
🧱 Fundamental analysis 🧱 Hello, guys.🙌🏻 Today I wanna talk with you about fundamental analysis.💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻 🧐I think, that many of you heard about it, but did you have use it? Write me in the comments✍🏻✍🏻✍🏻 Fundamental Analysis (FA) studies the fundamental foundations of a country's development of political, economic and financial credit policy. In general, fundamental analysis identifies four groups of factors that directly affect the market: 👉🏻economic 👉🏻political 👉🏻rumors and expectations 👉🏻Force Majeure There is an opinion that market movements are determined by fundamental factors, and technical analysis allows you to search for entry points. For a rational distribution of your efforts and the most efficient use of time and opportunities, you need to clearly understand the fundamental analysis mechanism, and also know when and where you can expect the beginning of movement, the time of trading sessions, reduced activity, and even lunch breaks at the world's leading exchanges. You need to pay attention to the time of the release of the main economic indicators of leading countries, such important events as the performances of significant figures of the financial market, such as, for example, the head of the US Federal Reserve, the heads of the Central Bank of leading countries, etc. However, one should not pay excessive attention to this, and think that upon learning any news (unless, of course, this news is of any catastrophic or global nature, such as, for example, the outbreak of war, the terrorist attack of September 11, etc. .), you can get ahead of the market and quickly make the right bets. No matter how sophisticated the software and access to the news feeds you have, it is doubtful that even through the Internet you can have faster and more reliable information than that which the large forex market players possess. And even more so, it is unlikely that you are able to possess insider information. Therefore - ANY NEWS that you have learned through the Internet, Surely the MARKET ALREADY KNOWS. Therefore, your task remains the same: to follow the market, and not try to get ahead of it. Moreover, it very often happens that the market’s assessment of any news is both belated and inadequate, and directly opposite to what one would expect. For successful trading, you must: 💥analyze the reasons for the rise / fall of a financial instrument 💥analyze the depth of these reasons as a factor in influencing the trend of a financial instrument In order not to waste time, analyze only the most important events. I hope my post has become useful to you.😉😉 Stay with me💋💋💋 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
7
Looking to play another support rejection GBPAUDFundamental case: Overvalued AUD against Australian equities. BJ's lockdown extension caused short term selling and I predict GBP will continue up. Sentiment/PA: Key level for this pair; just as we're seeing on many other pairs, there's an order block (in yellow) controlling the next wave of direction - this level is holding the selling since 1.9500. Still a seller's market and a big challenge for a buy case. Technicals: Market is rejecting 1.9000, with a small double bottom. Market is neutral at best until price is above demand. Entry criteria: A rejection of support. Make sure to follow my ideas. Follow me on twitter @thecolour_red and instagram @madebyforex. - Happy trading.
Long
by madebyforex
1
TESLA INC (TSLA) REVERSAL CLUES TO CONSIDER! hey guys, daily divergence on rsi and immediate, strong bearish reaction from 850 resistance makes me think that something is coming. for now, the main resort for buyers is 685 structure support. during the last month buyers 3 times made the market move from that but each time the movement was relatively weak. if bears will be able to return the prices back again to the abovementioned support, we should look for its bearish breakout. being broken to the downside, buyers will lose their confidence and the price will start falling. don't miss this potential opportunity and set the alert on a key level to be prepared!
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by VasilyTrader
10