Get started

Fundamentalanalsysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for March 10, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair began the new week positively, trading at around 1.29400-1.29450 during the Asian session and matching the four-month high reached on Friday.The bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) supports the prospects of extending the momentum of last week's breakout above the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD against a basket of currencies, is approaching its lowest point since early November, a development that followed Friday's weak monthly US jobs data.The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) data revealed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the consensus estimates. In addition, the previous month's data was revised downward to 125k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.This comes amid fears that US President Donald Trump's policies will hit US economic activity, and suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates several more times this year. Current market predictions indicate approximately three 25bp rate cuts this year, a development that persists in exerting pressure on the pound and thereby supporting the GBP/USD pairing.The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he expressed that the US central bank has no intention of hastily reducing interest rates, did not provide any respite for those who advocate a strengthening of the dollar. Conversely, the British pound is bolstered by the anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a more gradual rate reduction approach compared to other major central banks, including the Fed.This dynamic is further fueling demand for the GBP/USD pair, underscoring a positive outlook.Absent significant market-moving economic data from the UK or the US, the US dollar is expected to exert influence on spot prices, enabling traders to capitalize on short-term opportunities. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.28900, SL 1.29500, TP 1.27800
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 7, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been strengthening in recent weeks due to the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), maintaining the USD/JPY pair near its lowest level since early October, which was reached on Thursday.Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates has put upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on global economic growth continues to weigh on investor sentiment, as evidenced by weaker stock market performance. This is another factor supporting the safe-haven yen. However, USD bears seem reluctant to place new bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which in turn limits USD/JPY losses. Trade recommendation: BUY 147.600, SL 147.000, TP 148.400
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 4, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 16:15 EET. JPY - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks USDJPY: On Tuesday, the Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened for the second consecutive day, reaching a multi-month high against the US dollar (USD) last week. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish policy outlook continues to support the JPY, while concerns over the economic consequences of US President Donald Trump's tariff policy have led to a decrease in investor appetite for risky assets and contributed to the yen's strength. Trump's threats regarding Japan's currency depreciation, as well as the low dynamics of US dollar (USD) prices, are other factors exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. JPY bulls have not been affected by weak macroeconomic data from Japan, which showed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and a drop in corporate capital spending for the first time in three years. This suggests that the yen's value may continue to rise. Trade recommendation: SELL 149.000, SL 149.800, TP 148.200
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 26, 2025 GBPUSDOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight rebound, allowing the cable to retrace to the upper boundary of the short-term consolidation and hold bid near the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).US consumer sentiment declined in February, adding to concerns of slowing economic growth, with US President Donald Trump reiterating his intention to impose stiff import taxes on his citizens as a trade war threat against the US's closest trading partners. Despite weakening consumer sentiment, driven mainly by concerns over President Trump's tariff packages, the cable markets remained positive on Tuesday.Despite a new round of attempts by President Trump to start a trade war, markets continue to believe that the US President will find a reason to put aside his own tariff threats at the 11th hour. The data calendar for the US and UK has relatively few items scheduled for Wednesday, although the market is anticipating the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. Friday will conclude the week with the release of updated US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, a key indicator that investors hope will show that the recent rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not affected core inflation. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.26500, SL 1.26000, TP 1.27300
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 20, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is holding strong following losses on the previous two consecutive days, trading at around 1.25900 during the Asian session on Thursday. However, the pair is under pressure due to concerns over tariffs from US President Donald Trump, which have led to increased demand for the US Dollar (USD).According to Bloomberg, Trump announced plans to impose 25 per cent tariffs on foreign cars on Tuesday, as well as expected duty hikes on semiconductor chips and pharmaceutical products. The official announcement is expected to be made on 2 April.Market participants are now focusing on key US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims, the central bank's leading economic index and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which will be released during the North American session.The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January, released on Wednesday, confirmed the decision to leave interest rates unchanged in January. The committee emphasised that further assessment of economic activity, labour market trends and inflation was required before any adjustments to rates could be considered, and that clear indications of falling inflation were necessary for any rate cuts to be implemented.Despite the release of better-than-expected annual inflation figures on Wednesday, the British pound (GBP) did not strengthen. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-on-year, beating December's 2.5% rise and market expectations of 2.8%. This figure remains well above the Bank of England's (BoE) inflation target of 2%.Bank of England directors have previously recognised that inflation could rise in the short term due to higher energy prices and then gradually return to target. Earlier this week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that while inflation may rise temporarily, he does not expect it to be sustainable and still sees a gradual disinflationary trend. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.26000, SL 1.25350, TP 1.26700
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
$SOL Price LONG Setup February 2025 | 1D | SOLUSDTSee on Chart, Recently News- Ethereum Price Holding Above $2600 Could Spark an Altseason? Ethereum price is currently testing a crucial support level at $2,670, hovering dangerously close to the $2,600 threshold which is crucial for its price and other altcoins. This price, just above 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, was a key support that could dictate ETH’s and other altcoins short-term trajectory. If Ethereum fails to maintain the $2600 level, it could signal a broader downturn, potentially impacting the anticipated altcoin season. Ethereum has been navigating within an expansive ascending channel since mid-2023, adhering to both support and resistance levels delineated by Fibonacci retracement lines. Notable touches at the 0.236 Fibonacci level around $1,456 and rebounds off the 0.382 level around $1,767 demonstrate the historical significance of these zones. A fall below the current level near $2,670 might see ETH targeting lower supports at $2,414 and possibly $2,175. Conversely, a rebound from the $2,600 level could reignite bullish sentiment, possibly pushing prices towards upper resistance levels near $3,140 and beyond. This potential recovery would be critical in maintaining the momentum required for an altseason, characterized by widespread gains across various altcoins. How Whales Could Spark an Altseason? The total balances for wallets holding between 10k to 100k ETH surged, reaching 16 Million ETH by February 2025, compared to just above 14 Million in early 2024. This substantial accumulation coincided with a noticeable uptick in ETH’s price. It escalated from around $2,400 in December 2024 to over $3,800 in January 2025 before slightly retracting. After a peak in early 2025, ETH price headed into a downward trend while the balances in whales’ wallets did not shown a similar decline. This indicates a potential holding strategy rather than a sell-off. Recently From News- Ethereum (ETH), the king of altcoins, has been steadily climbing, with analysts predicting a potential rally to $10,000 in 2025 as institutional adoption grows. Historically, when Ethereum moves, ERC-20 tokens follow, meaning that a major ETH rally could send Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Mutuum Finance (MUTM) soaring. With ETH currently priced at $2,773, a push toward $10,000 would likely create a bull market for ERC-20 tokens. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
$BTC Long Setup February 2025 | 4H | BTCUSDT See on Chart,✨ CRYPTOCAP:BTC Long Setup February 2025 | 4H | BTCUSDT Recent News: Czech Central Bank Explores Bitcoin Amid Cautions Over Crypto Risks Analyst Says Bitcoin Could Reach $100K in 1-2 Weeks, Trying to Create New Support. Bitcoin's price has recently bounced from a key support level, located just below the 78.6% retracement, which has been a focal point in the last few days. The price formed a local low and attempted a move to the upside. However, the bullish rally is still in its early stages, and the momentum seems too small to be considered a strong trend just yet. Currently, Bitcoin has failed to break the previous swing high from February 3rd, which is around $96,700. For the bulls to show strength, a break above this level is essential. While this move up could be a sign of things to come, the price action is not yet strong enough to confirm a substantial low. Crypto analyst Michael say Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming weeks. He believes Bitcoin could reach $100K within 1-2 weeks, with the current consolidation phase offering a great entry point for investors. As Bitcoin holds at lower levels, van de Poppe sees it as a chance for a potential breakout. Market Implications The price area between GETTEX:89K and $57K may receive backing from institutional investors and ETFs yet a significant market fall below $57K would signal extended bearish trends. Long-term holders keep GETTEX:25K as their essential reference point for the market because previous market bottoms reached this exact value. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 17, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher near 1.25850 in the early Asian session on Monday, rising on the back of a positive UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and weak US retail sales data.The US market will be closed on Monday due to the Presidents' Day holiday.US retail sales posted their biggest drop in nearly two years, dragging down the dollar. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Friday that retail sales fell 0.9 per cent in January after an upwardly revised 0.7 per cent rise in December, which was weaker than the 0.1 per cent decline that had been forecast. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 4.2 per cent during the same reporting period.Stronger than expected UK GDP figures provide some support for the Pound Sterling (GBP). According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations. Traders will be monitoring the UK labour market and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. These reports may provide some indication as to whether the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates again at its March meeting. Trading recommendation: GBPUSD: SELL 1.25800, SL 1.26300, TP 1.25100
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
$BNB LONG SETUP | Binance Coin Price Predictions for This Week Binance Coin (BNB) Price Predictions for This Week Key Support levels: $600 Key Resistance levels: $701. Massive Bounce off Key Support After BNB touch $500 for a brief moment in early February, the price shot up to $700 in less than 10 days. This reversal was abrupt and significant, confirming that the support at $600 is well defended by buyers. At the time of this post, BNB is under the key resistance at $700.2. Sellers are Defending the $700 Resistance As soon as the price moved above $700, sellers came in strong to push the price under this key level. After an impressive performance, BNB could not break this level which continues to act as a key resistance at the time of this post. Nevertheless, buyers could attempt another breakout later.3. Sustained Buy Volume Meets Sellers Prior to BNB reaching $700, the buy volume was sustained and increased gradually. However, as soon as the price moved above $700 sellers dominated with the highest daily volume recorded so far in 2025. This has put a pause to the rally, and for it to continue, buyers need to turn $700 into a key support. 🔥 Market Analytics Info ( CRYPTOCAP:BNB ) Fully Diluted Market Cap: $94.2B Volume 24 hour: $2.25 B Total Supply: 142.48 B BNB Circulating Supply: 142.48 B BNB Market Cap: $94.02 B All Time High: $793.35 All Time Low: $0.0961 Already have 90 Day Returns 2.84% Now 7 Day Returns 13.99% 🔥Chart Analysis ( CRYPTOCAP:BNB ) 💫2025 ATH : $793.35 🎆ENTRY POINT : $613.63, $588.50, $564.54 🎇STOPLOSS ZONE : $502.87 1ST TARGET $684.43 2ND TARGET $745.47 3RD TARGET $792.78 ATH 4TH TARGET $877.85 Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 14, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales EURUSD: On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate strengthened, rising seven-tenths of a percentage point to re-enter the 1.04000 range. This gain was influenced by a general weakening of the US dollar, which facilitated inflows amid less severe US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data than anticipated.Investors are currently speculating that the Trump administration's ongoing ambiguity regarding tariff threats indicates the likelihood of no trade war. Meanwhile, European economic data released on Thursday aligned with market expectations, offering minimal impact on traders. However, the US PPI data, which exceeded forecasts, helped alleviate investor concerns regarding renewed inflationary pressures. Core inflation for the year ending January stood at 3.6% year-on-year (y/y), surpassing the 3.3% forecast but falling short of the revised 3.7% figure, originally published at 3.5%. The upcoming release of US Retail Sales will be a key data point for the week, with markets anticipating another strong performance. The monthly retail sales figure is forecast to decline marginally by 0.1%, from the previous reading of 0.4%.In other news, US President Donald Trump has unveiled his latest strategy to boost tax revenues, amid significant cuts in administrative taxes. The concept of 'reciprocal tariffs', which involves the imposition of duties on countries that levy tariffs on US goods, is scheduled to be developed in the coming months, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appointed to finalise the details.The timing of additional tariffs remains unclear, and investors view these new tariff threats as unlikely, reminiscent of Trump's proposed 'day one tariffs' as well as tariffs on Canada, Mexico and specific imports such as cars, microchips and pharmaceuticals. While there are various proposals for imposing import taxes on US consumers and businesses to penalise foreign companies and countries, there has been little real movement so far, leading investors to assume this trend will continue. Trading recommendation: EURUSD: BUY 1.04700, SL 1.04100, TP 1.05300
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Institutions Pull Back Their Funds From The FedDisclaimer : Geopolitical factors are currently a major concern. This data analysis aims to serve as a fundamental basis derived directly from official sources to assess the USD exchange rate and the likelihood of future monetary policies under normal economic conditions, excluding geopolitical factors that create sentiment different from the actual economic conditions. H.4.1 Report FRED CME FedWatch Fed Balance Sheet: Securities Held Outright: Increased by $38 million. Reverse Repo (RRP): Significantly decreased by $51.875 million in the latest period. Reserve Balances: Increased by $42.962 million. TGA Data Current balance: $809,154 million. Change this week: Decreased by $8,799 million. Change from last year: Decreased by $22,726 million significantly. RRP A significant decrease in the last 3 days, from $99.65 billion on February 10 to $67.82 billion on February 13, with a total decrease of -$31.83 billion. M2 Money Supply Data: M2 value as of December 2024: $21,533.8 billion. Change from the previous month (Nov 2024): +$85.5 billion. Change from last year (Dec 2023): +$808.4 billion. Fed Interest Rate Decision: Main decision: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Bank Reserve Interest Rate: Remains at 4.4%. Primary Credit Rate: Remains at 4.5%. The Federal Reserve will continue its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy by continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury securities and MBS. Market Expectations from CME FedWatch Tool: Current target rate: 425-450 bps (4.25% - 4.50%). Probability for an interest rate of 400-425 bps: 2.5%. Probability for an interest rate of 425-450 bps: 97.5%. Based on this analysis The Federal Reserve has a policy to maintain interest rates stable in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Despite the significant decrease in Reverse Repo and the decrease in TGA, as well as the significant increase in M2 Money Supply, this policy is maintained to support economic stability and reduce excess liquidity in the market. The high probability (97.5%) of the market to maintain or increase the interest rate also reflects strong expectations for a conservative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Impact on USD Overall Based on the analysis of data from the Fed Balance Sheet, TGA, RRP, M2 Money Supply, and interest rate expectations, USD is likely to remain stable to strengthen in the short term, especially due to the tight monetary policy (Quantitative Tightening/QT) and the high probability of interest rates remaining in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Components RRP decreased significantly by -$31.83B in 3 days, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in RRP means banks and financial institutions are withdrawing their funds from The Fed and are likely to move into other assets. This increases liquidity in the market, which may weaken the USD due to more dollars circulating, potentially lowering the exchange rate. M2 Money Supply increased by +$808.4B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A significant increase in M2 indicates more money circulating in the economy, which could pressure the purchasing power of the USD. If this growth continues, it resembles a loosening of monetary policy, which could weaken the USD in the long term. The Fed remains with QT & does not lower interest rates, monetary contraction, USD may strengthen The QT policy and no interest rate cuts indicate that the Fed still wants to control inflation and maintain tight monetary policy. This could attract investors to USD-based assets (Treasury Yields), keeping the USD strong compared to other currencies. TGA decreased by -$8.8B weekly, -$22.7B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in TGA balance indicates that the government is withdrawing funds for spending. This means more dollars entering the economy, which could add pressure to weaken the USD in the short term. You can prepare a trading strategy based on the following scenarios: Bullish USD if scenario: The Fed maintains QT, does not cut interest rates, and investors continue buying USD-based assets. Neutral USD if scenario: The Fed maintains interest rates, but RRP & M2 Money Supply continue to rise. Bearish USD if scenario: RRP continues to decrease drastically, M2 increases significantly, and the Fed starts considering interest rate cuts. Short Term (1-3 months): USD is likely to remain strong due to tight monetary policy, but if liquidity continues to increase from RRP and M2, weakening could occur in the next quarter. Long Term (6-12 months): If M2 continues to rise and the Fed changes its policy towards interest rate cuts, USD will gradually weaken. Focus on market reactions to liquidity data such as RRP and M2. If RRP drops drastically & M2 rises, USD weakens. If the Fed maintains QT & high interest rates, USD remains stable. Pay attention to the next FOMC Meeting & liquidity data (M2 & RRP) for further USD trend confirmation. Important Note: Treat the above analysis as a fundamental basis in making your trading decisions. It is suitable for swing traders, but for the short term, it is important to consider geopolitical factors. ICEUS:DXY ICEUS:DX1!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CipherOracle
$LUNC Long Setup see on Chart, LUNC Price on the Rise as Terra..LUNC Price on the Rise as Terra Classic Moves Closer to 403B Target The Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) market rose continuously during five trading days and surpassed its essential resistance barrier. On February 12, LUNC reached its peak value at $0.0000784 while showing a 59% rise relative to its yearly market lows. LUNC Burn Activity Triggers Price Surge The upward price trend of LUNC joins altcoins in general, which have recovered from their local winter lows reached on Monday. LUNC’s latest price increase stems directly from the continuous token-burning efforts on the Terra Classic network. LUNC Metrics demonstrates that the network has destroyed more than 628 million tokens throughout the previous week. The latest round of burning operations has expanded the total destroyed LUNC supply up to 402.78 billion since the initiative commenced. The current pace indicates that the total burned supply will cross the 403 billion threshold during the latter part of this month. Between on-chain network transactions and Terraform Labs donation amount, 67.86 billion of the total burned tokens have been eliminated thus far, but 334.92 billion tokens were directed toward the burn wallet. Binance stands out as the primary supporter of LUNC burning through its destruction of more than 70.8 billion tokens, as noted in our earlier post. The burn process received substantial support from the DFLUNC Protocol, which managed to destroy 4.52 billion tokens, along with LunaticsToken, which burned 1.97 billion tokens. The Terra Classic community believes that ongoing burn operations alongside staking might possibly resolve the issues that affect TerraClassicUSD (USTC). USTC, the stablecoin that lost its peg during the Terra ecosystem collapse, also recorded a notable surge. USTC price rose above 13.22% today to reach the value of $0.01875. However, the current value of USTC remains 5,233% below its target dollar value of $1, therefore necessitating further increase in price. LUNC Price Analysis Today On Wednesday, LUNC price continued surging, trading at $0.00007805, up by 5.12% at press time. A formation of hammer candlestick pattern emerged at this price level with its long lower wick and tiny body structure, which often indicates a bullish reversal move, as mentioned in our previous story. The LUNC price exceeded the upper boundary forming the pattern of declining wedge. The falling wedge is created by descending trend lines that move toward one another and generally signal bullish price movements. Terra Classic overcame its previous support area at $0.00007140 in early September. Terra Classic stands to potentially reach its next major resistance point at $0.0001025 after breaking through this barrier because this level corresponds with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement measure. The future price potential stands at 40% above its current value according to this target measurement. Hence, the current bullish outlook would become invalid if market bearishness drives prices beneath the $0.00005525 support Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 13, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) has attracted some buying interest following the release of a stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan on Thursday, which confirms bets on further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).However, the market reaction was short-lived amid concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, as well as upcoming retaliatory tariffs. This helped USD/JPY to hold above 154.00 during the Asian session and remain near the weekly high reached the previous day.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates, and US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday suggests that the Fed does not have much room to cut rates this year. This has led to an increase in US Treasury yields, resulting in a widening of the yield differential between the US and Japan and a limitation on the upside for the low-yielding Yen.However, the US Dollar (USD) has experienced difficulty attracting buyers, which may potentially discourage traders from making new bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair. Trade recommendation: USDJPY: SELL 154.200, SL 153.500, TP 154.800
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 12, 2025 GBPUSDEvents to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index 17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair rebounded on Tuesday, breaking a three-day losing streak and returning to the 1.24500 level touching range, up around two-thirds of one per cent for the day. Global currency markets sold off the US Dollar slightly as risk appetite gradually recovered across the board, helped by a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and expectations that the latest iteration of US President Donald Trump's tariff threats would be averted through last-minute concessions, as has been the custom since Donald Trump took over the White House.UK data remains scarce midweek, but cable traders will be keeping an eye on Thursday's release of UK gross domestic product (GDP) data. The latest forecasts indicate that UK GDP will recover to 1.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, although the fourth quarter GDP figure is expected to contract by -0.1%.The key indicator on Wednesday will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). US core CPI inflation is expected to remain at 2.9% year-on-year, while core CPI inflation is expected to decline to 3.1% from the previous reading of 3.2%. On Thursday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, with core PPI inflation expected to ease slightly to 3.3% y/y from 3.5%. Trading recommendation: FLAT
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
4 Scenarios for Anticipating The Fed's PolicyBased on prevailing economic conditions and financial pressures Scenario #1 | The Fed’s Policy and Its Implications High Inflation Persists & Bank Liquidity Declines Conditions: Bank Credit grows slowly, while Deposits grow at a slower pace than Borrowings. Cash Assets decline significantly, indicating a reduction in liquidity within the banking system. Interbank lending rates rise, tightening funding among banks. Inflation remains high, but economic growth slows. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Maintain high interest rates or increase further to curb inflation. Reduce bond holdings through Quantitative Tightening (QT) to absorb liquidity from the financial system. Open emergency lending facilities for banks to prevent panic in financial markets. Impacts: USD may strengthen as higher interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Increased pressure on banks, especially those heavily reliant on short-term funding. Stock markets may experience a correction, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate. Scenario #2 | Recession Starts to Surface & Credit Tightens Conditions: Bank Credit stagnates or turns negative, indicating that banks are restricting credit due to concerns about default risks. Deposits stagnate, as investors prefer alternative assets such as bonds or gold. Stock markets begin showing bearish pressure due to economic uncertainty. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Gradually lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment. End Quantitative Tightening (QT) and restart Quantitative Easing (QE) to inject liquidity into the markets. Adjust bank reserve requirements to allow more flexibility in lending. Impacts: USD may weaken as lower interest rates reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. U.S. government bonds will become more attractive, causing bond yields to decline further. Stock prices may rise, particularly in sectors that benefit from lower interest rates, such as technology and real estate. Scenario #3 | Liquidity Crisis in the Banking System Conditions: Sharp declines in Cash Assets, causing some banks to struggle to meet short-term obligations. Deposits exit the banking system, as public confidence in banks decreases. Federal Funds Rate spikes, making interbank borrowing more difficult. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Provide emergency lending facilities for banks facing liquidity shortages, as seen during the 2008 and 2023 financial crises. Lower interest rates in an emergency move if liquidity pressures worsen to maintain financial stability. Collaborate with the FDIC to guarantee deposits and prevent bank runs. Impacts: Financial markets may experience high volatility, with potential panic selling in banking stocks. Investors will flock to safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. government bonds, causing their prices to surge. Confidence in the USD may temporarily weaken, especially if the Fed injects large amounts of liquidity into the system. Scenario #4 | Soft Landing - Stable Economy & Fed Policy Adjustments Conditions: Inflation is under control, and the economy continues to grow positively. Bank Credit grows steadily, and bank liquidity remains adequate. Stock markets remain calm, with no signs of panic in financial markets. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Keep interest rates stable for an extended period, with no drastic changes. End Quantitative Tightening (QT), but avoid immediately restarting QE. Collaborate with financial regulators to maintain banking system stability without major interventions. Impacts: USD remains stable, as no major monetary policy changes occur. Lending rates remain in a moderate range, supporting investment and consumption growth. Stock markets may gradually recover, particularly in sectors benefiting from stable monetary policies. Anticipating The Fed’s Policy! If liquidity declines and inflation remains high → The Fed is likely to maintain high interest rates & tighten monetary policy. If a recession starts to emerge → The Fed may lower interest rates & ease monetary policy to support credit and investment. If a liquidity crisis occurs → The Fed may bail out banks, lower interest rates, and stabilize the financial system. If the economy remains stable → The Fed may hold interest rates & make only minor adjustments. Recommendations: Monitor The Fed’s statements and key economic data (CPI, PCE, NFP, GDP) to anticipate upcoming policy changes. Analyze market reactions to monetary policy to identify trends in stocks, bonds, and USD. Use bank liquidity and Borrowings data to assess potential liquidity constraints in the banking system. If you have additional insights or different perspectives, I’d love to discuss them in the comments! ICEUS:DX1! ICEUS:DXY CBOE:CBOE NASDAQ:CME TVC:US10Y
ICEUS:DX1!
by CipherOracle
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 11, 2025 EURUSDOn Monday, the EUR/USD exchange rate experienced a decline of approximately a third of a percentage point, reaching 1.03000 as market sentiment moderated. Investors are anticipating clearer signals from central bank policymakers, however, the recent series of executive orders on tariffs issued by US President Donald Trump has introduced an element of uncertainty. European data is generally limited this week, with a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde failing to elicit significant movement. This routine speech is a staple in ECB policymakers' talking points.Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his latest testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee, where he is expected to address concerns regarding the Fed's response to the fluctuating tariff threats posed by President Trump. Germany's final Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the year ending January is scheduled for release on Thursday, and EU gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter is due on Friday. Neither of these indicators are expected to undergo significant change.Key data this week will be US consumer price index (CPI) inflation, released on Wednesday, and the US producer price index (PPI), released on Thursday. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.03100, SL 1.02850, TP 1.03600
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 11, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) has experienced a slight decline at the start of the new week, as concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff threats have resurfaced, leading to speculation that Japan could also be subject to new US duties. Additionally, the moderate strength of the US Dollar (USD) has led to an increase in the USD/JPY pair towards 152.00 during the Asian session. The positive US jobs report on Friday, along with expectations that Trump's policies could boost inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) policy easing ability, is having a modest impact on the USD. However, a significant yen decline seems unlikely due to growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year, which continues to push Japanese government bond (JGB) yields higher. Consequently, the narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other major central banks is expected to limit the decline in JGB yields. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling in the yen before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed in the near term. Trade recommendation: SELL 151.80, SL 152.40, TP 151.00
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 7, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change GBPUSD: On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a sudden and significant decline, breaking a technical pullback from key averages and dipping below 1.24000. This move followed a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) of 25 basis points, which was accompanied by a hawkish monetary policy statement. This led to a shift in market expectations, with betting markets adjusting their predictions for further rate cuts to a later date than previously anticipated. According to market participants, the Bank of England is expected to implement two or three additional rate cuts this year.The decision to cut rates was unanimous among all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with seven voting for a 25 basis point reduction and two members, known for their bearish stance, opting for a double 50 basis point cut. While policymakers are anticipating the benefits of February's rate cut, market expectations point to a further 70 basis points being taken away from the Bank of England's discount rate this year.Another non-farm payrolls (NFP) data release is scheduled for Friday, and net job gains are forecast to decline to 170,000 in January, down from December's 256,000.This week, close attention will be given to revisions of earlier data. Over the course of 2024, post-release revisions to the data have been on the upside, disappointing market participants who had hoped that cracks in US employment would help push the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates further. Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURCAD Aggressive Trade with Potential for Huge GainsI'll keep this short and to the point - Technical Outlook: Price recently hit a ceiling which has historically served as resistance (1.51750) , however we have been in an uptrend since late 2022. In Nov 2024 we saw bulls rally at strong levels of demand and continued to drive price upwards, creating a demand feed which price reacted off more recently (as shown on the chart). Once price reached the ceiling level, it took a nose dive UNTIL we saw it decelerate at the latest demand feed, which could potentially have a trove of resting orders ready to be filled. Trading Considerations: I will be keeping an eye on the 15m chart during London and NY sessions for bullish momentum to take hold. As it stands right now, a break above 1.49050 would be early signs to get involved. This can always change as new structure is formed on the LTF's but we are deep in discount territory. Watch for liquidity build up and volume to understand which LTF demand levels could hold during high volume sessions. Final Notes: As added confluence, this pair is currently oversold on the RSI. While navigating the LTF's make sure to adapt to changing conditions. Again, this is another trade which could potentially turn into a swing position (provided demand holds, we could see an upward move that finally breaks the ceiling). While the Euro continues to weaken against the USD, the Loonie should be able hold its own during this ongoing trade war (based on the fact that they've not just rolled over and do have some fight in them). We get to witness these scary times unfold - and it makes trading that much more exciting! Happy hunting predators! Apex out! OANDA:EURCAD FX:EURUSD OANDA:USDCAD
Long
by Apexfx_Alpha
1
XAUUSD GOLD ⇒ Sellers interested in retesting gold.Hello, Traders! As we all know, this week gold made ATH with a red candle and also did a retest to 2799, but this retest is not enough for the continuation of the bullish trend. Here I have presented my analysis regarding gold. Currently, gold is trading at 2799 at the gold support level, as the new week begins in three hours, so gold can do a gap down opening with a strong volume candle, and we can see 2774 in gold because gold is in a strong bullish trend, so it should touch 2774, which is the golden zone of fib to continue its bullish trend. Support Level: 2758 – 2767 Resistance Level: 2815 – 2819 Fib Golden Zone: 2773 – 2763. Liquidity Zone: 2730 (strong low) Because gold is trading in an ascending channel, our aim would be the ascending trendline, but our entry point should be the golden zone of fib. Do not enter at ATH because it is the initial technical analysis, thus our buy entry is quite dangerous, so we will wait for a retest. For now, we can take sell trades for scalping, but always utilize SL because SL is better than liquidation, thus I'm in for sell until 2763. If you enjoy my analysis Please support my concept and follow me for more analysis. Have a wonderful day, thank you!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by NexusTradesZone
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 4, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD exchange rate experienced a decline following a series of tariff threats issued by US President Donald Trump. However, subsequent to the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico being deferred by the Trump administration for a period of 30 days, global risk markets demonstrated a recovery. The likelihood of US tariffs on the UK remains low, and the cable strengthened to 1.24500 by the close of Monday's trading session. The Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to hold its next rate meeting later this week, and markets are largely anticipating the likelihood of another rate cut. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote eight to one in favour of cutting interest rates by another quarter point to 4.5%, with one abstention in favour of keeping rates unchanged for another meeting. On Friday, the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is anticipated. The employment data is unlikely to have a significant impact this week. The US labour market is stable, with geopolitical headlines being the main focus this week. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.24000, when fixing below we consider Sell positions, when rebounding we consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004