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Fundamental Market Analysis for April 24, 2025 EURUSDEvent to watch out for today: 15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. EURUSD: EUR/USD rises towards the 1.1335 level during the early Asian session on Thursday. Easing concerns over potential tariff threats from US President Donald Trump are putting some pressure on the US Dollar (USD). According to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book report released on Wednesday, businesses facing the early stages of Trump's tariffs are looking for ways to pass on rising costs to consumers. Companies have reported receiving warnings from suppliers about price increases and are looking for ways not to absorb those increases, noting uncertainty about whether they can pass them on to customers. Earlier this month, Trump imposed a basic import tax of 10 per cent or more on dozens of countries, but then unexpectedly suspended the taxes for 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate lower rates. Nevertheless, trade policy uncertainty and concerns over slowing economic growth in the US could drive the dollar lower and create a tailwind for EUR/USD. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% at its April meeting. During a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the US tariffs on EU goods, which have increased from an average of 3% to 13%, are already hurting the prospects of the European economy. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1320, TP 1.1430
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bitcoin Rallies on Stablecoin Optimism and Liquidity BoostMacro: - The crypto market rebounded as sentiment improved following the US Treasury Secretary's proposal to ease stablecoin regulations, boosting trading volumes and risk appetite. - On-chain data reflects growing activity. The average bitcoin trade size rose 15% MoM, overall volume jumped, and 78% of supply is now in profit. - Liquidity support from the increasing M2 money supply in China and the US has further enhanced bitcoin's appeal. Technical: - BTCUSD surged to resistance near 94300, aligning with the 100% Fibo Extension, before forming a Doji candle that signals possible correction. The price remains above both EMAs, indicating a bullish shift. - If the price breaks below 92000, it may leads to a pullback toward the 87000–90000 support zone, near the 23.6%-38.2% Fibo Retracement levels. - A breakout above 94300 may open the door for a move toward the next resistance around 101400. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
by DatTong
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 23, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) declined against its US counterpart for a second straight day on Wednesday and retreated further from the multi-month peak reached the previous day. The Trump administration officials' comforting comments on US-China trade talks triggered a sharp rebound in global risk sentiment, which in turn had a strong impact on traditional safe-haven assets, including the yen. Moreover, a slight recovery in the US dollar (USD) from multi-year lows, supported by easing concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, pushed the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high, a level above 143.000 during the Asian session. Growing optimism that the US and Japan are moving closer to a temporary trade agreement is helping the yen, which reacted weakly to unimpressive domestic PMIs, to pause its intraday decline. In addition, strengthening expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates in 2025 is keeping JPY bears from betting aggressively. Meanwhile, investors are losing confidence in the US economy amid Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policy. This, as well as bets that the Fed will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle, is holding back the dollar and taking the USD/JPY pair below 142.000 in the last hour. Trading recommendation: SELL 141.700, SL 142.100, TP 140.500
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 22, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is trading in positive territory around 1.3370 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Concerns over slowing growth in the United States (US) and worries over the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) are driving the US Dollar (USD) lower and creating a tailwind for the major pair. US President Donald Trump condemned Powell for continuing to maintain a “wait-and-see” monetary policy until there is clarity on how the new tariff policy will affect the economic outlook. In a Truth social media post, Trump warned that the US economy will slow down if Powell doesn't cut interest rates immediately. Heightened uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China are undermining the U.S. dollar across the board. On the other hand, softer UK consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for March and global uncertainty paved the way for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at its May meeting. Financial markets are now betting on an interest rate cut at the Bank of England's May meeting, estimating an 86% probability of this happening, according to LSEG data. This, in turn, could affect the Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate against the US Dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3425, SL 1.3395, TP 1.3510
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD – Breakout Retest Setup🔍 Macro Fundamentals LEI improving → 86.8 → 90 Exo + LEI score = 78.5 → Healthy trend continuation bias Exogenous factors: April score 4.5 → positive skew USD macro weak & dovish, GBP maintaining hawkish tone 📅 Seasonality 📈 GBP bullish from April 24 onward 📉 USD bearish all month ✅ Perfect seasonality window for bullish GBP/USD swing 📊 COT Sentiment Both GBP and USD = ⚖️ Neutral → No positioning pressure, clean technical entry expected 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken out of structure, now retesting resistance as support Structure forming above 1.32312, with a solid upside trend 🔁 Plan: Enter on breakout retest for trend continuation 📥 Entry: 1.32312 ⛔ Stop Loss: 1.31581 (below structure) 🎯 Take Profit: Trail or target based on 1.3550–1.3600 zone 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+
Long
by wajahatarif
EUR/USD – Pullback Entry After Weekly Breakout🧠 Macro View LEI rising steadily: 71.5 → 81.15 Endogenous strength improving each month Exo+LEI composite score: 498.65 → one of the strongest major FX models USD: Fundamentally weak with dovish Fed, neutral COT 📅 Seasonality 📈 EUR Index bullish throughout April 📉 USD Index bearish all month 🔥 EUR/USD seasonality = strong long bias into April 30 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken weekly resistance → now acting as turncoat support Expecting pullback to 0.382 Fib level (~1.1462) before continuation Structure + macro + seasonality aligned for high-conviction long 📥 Entry: 1.1462 (Fib 0.382 retracement zone) ⛔ Stop Loss: Below (1.12424) 🎯 Take Profit: Retest high or 1.1583 and beyond (extension optional) 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2.2+
Long
by wajahatarif
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 21, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD broke out of a multi-day trading range and hit a new high since February 2022 around 1.1485 during the Asian session on Monday. Despite “aggressive” comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policy continues to undermine the dollar. Last Wednesday, Powell said the Fed would likely keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and wait for more clarity before considering any policy adjustments. Meanwhile, Trump's retaliatory tariff announcements undermined investor confidence in U.S. economic growth and drove the dollar to a two-year low early in the new week. The aforementioned factors largely offset the European Central Bank's (ECB) soft decision last week and served as a tailwind for EUR/USD. On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year and warned that economic growth would be hit hard by US tariffs, bolstering the case for further policy easing in the coming months. Moving forward, traders this week will be focused on scheduled speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday and a number of influential FOMC members this week. In addition, the market's focus will be on the release of flash PMI indices, which could provide new insights into the state of the global economy. This, in turn, may give some impetus to the US dollar and EUR/USD. Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1520, SL 1.1465 , TP 1.1565.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
HEG Limited Stock Analysis [Fundamental+Technical]Company Overview: Industry: Graphite Electrodes (used in Electric Arc Furnaces for steel production) Parent Group: LNJ Bhilwara Group Location: Largest graphite plant at a single location near Bhopal, MP Global Reach: 67% export-based; presence in 35+ countries Business Highlights Products: UHP & HP Graphite Electrodes Customers: Top 25 global steel companies Capacity: Increased to 100,000 TPA in Nov 2023 Utilization: 81% (despite global slowdown) Revenue from Operations: ₹2,394.90 Cr Net Profit: ₹231.54 Cr (down 49% YoY) EBITDA: ₹525.63 Cr (down 28% YoY) EPS: ₹59.99 Net Cash Flow from Operations: ₹615 Cr (up from ₹114 Cr) ROCE: ~7.2% Return on Net Worth (RoNW): 5.63% 📈 Technical Insights: Current Price: ₹474.60 50 EMA: ₹431.44 (support zone) 200 EMA: ₹429.40 (support zone) Price is trading above both EMAs, indicating a bullish trend reversal. Golden Cross formation (50 EMA crossing 200 EMA) recently occurred — a classic long-term bullish signal. The stock bounced from ₹400 zone and now forming higher highs. Key Strengths One of the lowest-cost graphite electrode producers globally Among top 5 global players (ex-China) Strong relationships with major steelmakers Backward integrated captive power: 76.5 MW State-of-the-art technology and high R&D focus Key Risks Highly dependent on steel sector demand Pricing pressure due to global oversupply and China's export surplus Needle coke (key raw material) cost volatility Current underutilization of capacity Growth Triggers Green Steel Push: EAF-based steel production expected to grow globally Anode Powder Plant: ₹1,800 Cr investment in 20,000 TPA facility for EV battery anode materials; revenue expected from FY27 India’s EV & Steel Boom: Growing steel consumption (8.2% CAGR) and EV transition are long-term positives SWOT Summary Strengths: Global presence, high export revenue, low-cost structure Technological leadership Weaknesses: Profitability linked closely to global steel demand Volatility in raw material prices Opportunities: EV market and EAF steel expansion Threats Competition from China, diversion of raw material to battery sector Future Outlook Near-term challenges due to soft steel demand Medium to long-term outlook is strong, driven by: Increasing EAF penetration Global decarbonization policies Strategic expansion into EV-grade graphite anodes Analysis Based on Valuation + Chart CMP:₹474.60 Fair Price Range: ₹600 – ₹1200(Using a conservative P/E range of 10 to 20) Fair Value (DCF):₹1100+ (Based on 10% projected EPS growth over 5 years and a 12% discount rate.) Support Levels:₹430 (EMA), ₹400 (price action) Resistance Zones:₹490-500 (near-term), ₹600 (supply zone) Disclaimer The information provided in this report is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of data and analysis, no guarantees are made regarding future performance. Stock market investments are subject to market risks, including potential loss of capital. Please consult your financial advisor or conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
NSE:HEG
by TradZoo
Is it going to happen again? My view to the markets right now...CBOT_MINI:YM1! Is the Dow Jones breaking the downtrend again? I believe there's a strong chance the markets are setting up for another move higher. From a fundamental standpoint, the recent pause in tariffs is a big deal. It removes an immediate layer of uncertainty that’s been hanging over the global economy, especially for exporters and multinational companies. On top of that, the fact that key tech products have been left out of the latest tariff actions is boosting confidence in the sector that has been leading market strength for years. Economically, we’re still seeing resilience in key indicators. Unemployment remains low, consumer spending is steady, and central banks are staying cautious with tightening. The environment still leans more towards slow growth than recession, which supports equities over the medium term. More importantly, my own criteria for a favorable market setup are lining up. Whether it’s sentiment, intermarket signals, or trend conditions—this looks like a solid spot for a bullish stance. You can see my chart to check out my current viewpoint on the Dow Jones and how I’m positioning based on all this. Not Financial Advice
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by FairValueBuffet
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 14 - 18.04.2025During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post. ! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade. Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. More information in my RU profile. Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
by Forex_Hoby
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 9, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes GBPUSD: On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair broke a two-day losing streak, finding a technical bounce off the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) just north of the 1.2700 mark. Price action remains in a state of uncertainty ahead of the planned imposition of tariffs in the US, with investors maintaining a subdued outlook in anticipation of key US inflation and sentiment data due for release later this week. Overall, the week has been relatively quiet on the UK economic data front, with Tuesday providing a welcome respite from the usual deluge of geopolitical and trade headlines that have become the norm for the Trump administration in recent weeks. Nevertheless, several key policymakers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have provided insights, cautioning that uncertainty and unintended inflationary consequences from US tariffs could complicate, rather than facilitate, the Fed's rate-cutting efforts. However, traders continue to bet that the Fed will be forced to cut rates before the end of the year, as the negative economic fallout from the same tariffs could lead the U.S. into recession. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rate swap traders are beginning to raise hopes that the first quarter-point rate cut could come as early as May. However, most betting market participants still see a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in July as more likely, and 100 bps or more by the end of the year. On Thursday, US consumer price index (CPI) data will be released, followed on Friday by the producer price index (PPI) and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey. This will be the latest in a series of key US inflation and sentiment data relating to the 'pre-tariff' period of 2025, which will be a key indicator for the remainder of the calendar year. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.28600, SL 1.27800, TP 1.29600
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Long Term - Defence Fundamental PickDefence stocks are currently trading low due to the ongoing tariff trade war. Here are some strong fundamental picks to consider for long-term investment. 📊 Script: COCHINSHIP ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 1338 🎯 PE 🏆 - 42.78 📊 Script: BDL ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 1255 🎯 PE 🏆 - 81.3 📊 Script: GRSE ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 1523 🎯 PE 🏆 - 44.2 📊 Script: PARAS ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 917 🎯 PE 🏆 - 73.5 📊 Script: MAZDOCK ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 2317 🎯 PE 🏆 - 34 ⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio. ✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅ Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes. Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁 Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
NSE:COCHINSHIPLong
by radha_23
2
Long Term - Railway Fundamental PickRailway stocks are currently trading near their 52-week low because of the market decline. Here are some solid fundamental picks to consider adding to your portfolio for the long term. 📊 Script: RVNL ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 335 🎯 PE 🏆 - 56.1 📊 Script: RAILTEL ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 281 🎯 PE 🏆 - 32.4 📊 Script: IRCON ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 144 🎯 PE 🏆 - 17.7 📊 Script: IRFC ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 122 🎯 PE 🏆 - 24.5 📊 Script: TITAGARH ⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 748 🎯 PE 🏆 - 34.6 ⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio. ✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅ Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes. Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁 Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
NSE:RVNLLong
by radha_23
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 7, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) began the week positively, as US President Donald Trump's extensive retaliatory tariffs heighten the risk of a global economic slowdown and continue to support traditional safe-haven assets. Concerns that the tightening of reciprocal tariffs by the US could negatively impact the Japanese economy have led investors to reduce their expectations of a faster increase in the discount rate by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This has led to a positive impact on the yen, with the USD/JPY pair rebounding and returning to a six-month low during the Asian session. This level is below the psychological 145.00 mark reached on Friday. Nevertheless, signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for a further BoJ interest rate hike in 2025. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to limit any significant depreciation in the yen. The US Dollar (USD) is attempting to capitalise on Friday's positive movement amid bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing, fuelled by fears of a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy. This, along with a further sharp decline in US Treasury yields, should provide a tailwind for the low-yielding Yen and halt any meaningful recovery movement in the USD/JPY pair. Trade recommendation: BUY 147.000, SL 145.800, TP 148.150
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY 4H Chart Analysis:Trend Break & Support-Based Long Setup1. Previous Uptrend Channel 📈 Price moved in a rising channel Lower trendline acted as support ✅ Then came the trend line break ⚠️ — signal of trend reversal 2. Major Drop 🔻💥 After breaking support, the price fell sharply Strong bearish momentum took over Sellers dominated the market 3. Support Zone Identified 🟦 Support Box (146.110 - 145.156) Buyers stepped in at this level Possible bounce or consolidation Price currently at 147.014 — just above support 4. Trade Setup Idea 🛒 Buy Opportunity (if price holds support) 📌 Entry Zone: Around 146.110 🎯 Target: 150.260 🛑 Stop Loss: 145.156 📊 Risk:Reward = ~1:2 — solid R:R setup! 5. Indicators & Confirmations 🟠 DEMA (9): Sitting at 146.110 — aligns with support! ✅ Extra confluence for the bounce! Summary If price holds above support: Buyers might push toward 150.260 If it breaks below 145.156: Sellers may regain control
Long
by Jameshead007
XAUUSD-GOLD can still break upward ? read captionGold (XAU/USD) has just soared to a new all-time high, reflecting heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties. The surge comes as global markets react to inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and shifting monetary policies, further strengthening gold’s position as a premier store of value. With central banks increasing their reserves and investors seeking stability, the precious metal continues to shine, marking a historic moment in the financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
BTC 4H Technical & Fundamental AnalysisTRUMP EFFECT & RESISTANCE DENIAL CRYPTOCAP:BTC 4H Technical & Fundamental Analysis As we expected, Bitcoin reached the upper band of the falling channel (approximately $88,000), touched the red resistance circle and then experienced a strong rejection. The timing of this technical rejection is no coincidence. Last night, former US President Donald Trump's announcement that he would impose new customs duties on all countries of the world created a risk-off mood in the markets . In particular, global uncertainty and protectionist policies triggered selling pressure in risk assets such as Bitcoin. Technically: 🔸RSI still has no obvious negative mismatch. 🔸However, since the price cannot break the upper band of the falling channel, this region continues to work as a selling zone for now. If this retracement movement deepens, the first major support level of $73.777 , followed by the $69.000 line may come to the agenda. On the other hand, if the price manages to regain strength and break this zone in volume, there may be a rapid movement to the GETTEX:92K - $95K band. In short, Technical resistance + Trump news effect combined, we can say that the market has stepped back for now. From now on, volume and news flow will be directional. #btc #Bitcoin #crypto #cryptocurrency
by ugurtash
1
Tariff Tensions, Dollar Dips & Gold’s Record Rally!"As of April 2, 2025, the financial markets have been significantly influenced by recent economic data releases and geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), gold (XAU/USD), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD).​ 1. Key Economic Data Reports and Their Impact: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY has experienced fluctuations due to recent economic indicators and policy announcements. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported softer figures, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing activity. These reports have contributed to a marginal decline in the DXY, which decreased by 0.02% to 104.2418 on April 2 .​Financial TimesTrading Economics Gold (XAU/USD): Gold prices have surged to record highs, nearing $3,150 per ounce. This increase is largely driven by investor concerns over potential economic slowdowns and uncertainties surrounding impending tariff announcements by President Trump . The anticipation of these tariffs has led investors to seek safe-haven assets, bolstering demand for gold.​ Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, trading above $84,000 with a nearly 2% gain in the past 24 hours . This rebound follows weeks of price weakness and is occurring amid the backdrop of upcoming tariff announcements, which have introduced volatility into the cryptocurrency markets.​ 2. Implications of the Data Reports: Labor Market and Manufacturing Data: The softer JOLTS figures and the ISM manufacturing slowdown suggest a potential deceleration in economic growth. These indicators may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting interest rates and, consequently, the strength of the U.S. dollar.​The Guardian+3EWF Pro+3KuCoin+3 Tariff Announcements: The anticipation of new tariffs has heightened market uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as they could have significant implications for international trade relations and economic stability. Such uncertainties often lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and can introduce volatility into both traditional and digital asset markets. 3. Major Contributors to Recent Market Movements: Tariff Uncertainty: President Trump's impending announcement of new tariffs has been a primary driver of recent market volatility. The potential for widespread tariffs has led to concerns about a global economic slowdown, prompting shifts in investor sentiment .​ Investor Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand: The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has led investors to seek refuge in assets perceived as safe havens, such as gold. This shift has contributed to the significant rise in gold prices. Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics: While Bitcoin has faced headwinds from global trade tensions, it has also shown resilience. Analysts suggest that traders may be overstating the impact of the U.S.-led tariff war on Bitcoin's price, indicating that other factors, such as market sentiment and technological developments, also play crucial roles .​ In summary, the recent economic data releases and the anticipation of new tariffs have collectively influenced the DXY, gold, and Bitcoin markets. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely, as they have the potential to significantly impact market dynamics in the near term.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by DeanMuller
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 31, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index EURUSD: The EUR/USD pair is attracting some buyers after falling in the Asian session to the 1.08000 area and hopes to consolidate the rebound from the multi-week low reached last Thursday. However, this rise lacks bullish confidence, and spot prices are currently trading around 1.0835, unchanged for the day. The US Dollar (USD) continues to face selling pressure for the third consecutive day, as investors assess the potential for stagflation in the US. This has exerted downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Dollar bulls have not been impressed by signs of rising inflation, which could deter the Federal Reserve (Fed) from resuming its rate-cutting cycle in June. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, released on Friday, showed that the core measure (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose by 0.4% in February, marking the largest monthly gain since January 2024 and pushing the annual rate to 2.8%. Additionally, a survey conducted by the University of Michigan revealed that 12-month inflation expectations increased in March to the highest level in almost 2-1.5 years. This was despite a 0.4% rise in consumer spending in February, following a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in January. This comes amid uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies, which should allow the Fed to adopt a 'wait-and-see' approach to further monetary easing. However, these forecasts are not expected to significantly bolster the US Dollar, nor do they exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Conversely, the shared currency appears to be benefiting from a reduction in concerns regarding a trade war between the EU and the US. The European Commission has announced that it has prepared concessions for the US to avoid Trump's so-called retaliatory tariffs, which he will announce on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the prevailing risk-off mood may provide some support to the safe-haven dollar and limit gains in EUR/USD. Traders are anticipating the release of preliminary German consumer inflation data, which is expected to provide a boost. The fundamental backdrop remains supportive of the pair's prospects for further growth. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.08500, SL 1.07650, TP 1.09550
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 28, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 14:30 EET. USD - Core PCE Price Index USDJPY: On Friday, during the Asian session, the Japanese yen (JPY) fell to a near four-week low against its US counterpart. This was due to concerns that US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs could affect key domestic exports. However, the release of robust consumer inflation data from Tokyo provided a welcome respite for those anticipating a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), potentially paving the way for further interest rate hikes. The BoJ's opinion summary also indicates that a rate hike remains a possibility should the economy and prices align with forecasts. Additionally, the prevailing risk-off environment, triggered by Trump's imposition of auto tariffs late Wednesday, has served to support the safe-haven yen, leading to a fall in the USD/JPY pair below 151.00 in the last hour. However, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip buying could support the currency pair and help limit further losses. Additionally, traders may adopt a wait-and-see approach, preferring to observe the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index to ascertain the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting intentions. Trade recommendation: BUY 151.000, SL 150.400, TP 151.750
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 27, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 14:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of recovery, having rebounded from the previous session's losses to reach 1.2910 during Thursday's Asian trading session. The pair is strengthening as the US dollar remains under pressure from lower Treasury yields: 2-year and 10-year yields are at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Market participants are monitoring upcoming US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims and the final Q4 annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, scheduled for release later today. However, GBP/USD gains may be constrained due to an escalation in risk-off sentiment and a rise in US trade policy. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25 per cent tariffs on car imports, which will come into effect on April 2, with duty collection starting the following day. However, a one-month delay will be granted for imports of auto parts. This has led to heightened global trade tensions and added uncertainty to the markets. On Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem issued a statement that was critical of the tariff policy, joining other Federal Reserve chiefs in expressing concerns. Musalem warned that the measures are disrupting the US economy, increasing uncertainty and pushing inflation higher. The release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February showed inflation falling faster than expected, leading to a weakening of the Pound Sterling (GBP). The lower CPI reading has led to speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may be leaning towards easing monetary policy. The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, falling short of the 2.9% forecast and down from January's 3.0%. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile goods, rose by 3.5%, below the anticipated 3.6% and the previous reading of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI increased by 0.4%, following a 0.1% decline in January, falling short of the 0.5% forecast. Inflation in the services sector, a key focus area for the Bank of England, remained steady at 5%. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.29000, SL 1.29700, TP 1.28100
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004