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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 21, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair has been unable to capitalise on the modest recovery gains recorded over the past two days and has been fluctuating in a narrow range around 1.30500-1.30450 during Monday's Asian session. Spot prices remain close to the one-month low reached last Thursday and are likely to extend the recent pullback from the 1.34350 area, the highest level since March 2022. The unexpected decline in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) to its lowest level since April 2021 and below the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target has increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) at the 7 November meeting. Furthermore, market expectations are that the Bank of England may cut interest rates again in December, which could continue to exert pressure on the British pound. This, along with the bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, indicates a negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair. The market is increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will continue to moderate rate cuts next year, which is keeping US Treasury yields high and acting as a tailwind for the dollar. Furthermore, geopolitical risks are providing additional support for the US dollar. In the absence of any market-important economic releases from the UK or the US, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop indicates that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is downwards. Therefore, any intraday upward movement should be viewed as a potential selling opportunity. However, those with a bearish outlook may wait for a consolidation below the 1.30000 psychological mark before placing new bets and positioning for a decline towards the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) support, which currently sits at around 1.29600. Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy y orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
SWING IDEA - ANDHRSUGARStock seems to have completed its Lower Low Price Action and MACD looks to form Higher Lows. Good Election Results has also helped the stock to start picking up momentum now. It could start seeing the Price Action change directions to Higher High and Higher Low Patterns. There seems to a Convergence Divergence in play as well. The newly elected CM will have his swearing in ceremony on June 12. Also 112 currently seems to have formed as an immediate support level. This is also a Key Support level now for the stock to maintain in order to go up further.
NSE:ANDHRSUGARLong
by thepranam
The Payment Card Titan: Comparing Visa, Mastercard, and Amex◉ Abstract The global credit card market is projected to grow from USD 559.18 billion in 2023 to USD 1,146.62 billion by 2033, driven by advancements in digital payment technologies, e-commerce growth, increased financial literacy, and urbanization, especially in Asia-Pacific. Visa leads the market with a 38.73% share, followed by Mastercard and American Express. Visa and Mastercard operate primarily as payment networks, while American Express both issues cards and offers unique rewards. Financially, all three companies show strong revenue growth, with American Express yielding the highest ROI but also carrying significant debt. Despite this debt, American Express appears undervalued based on financial ratios. Overall, while American Express presents an attractive investment opportunity, Visa and Mastercard also demonstrate solid fundamentals and growth potential for investors in the expanding credit card market. Read the full analysis here . . . ◉ Introduction The Global Credit Card Market Size was Valued at USD 559.18 Billion in 2023 and the Worldwide Credit Card Market Size is Expected to Reach USD 1146.62 Billion by 2033, ◉ Key Growth Drivers ● Digitalization and Technology: Advancements in payment technologies, including mobile wallets and contactless payments, enhance convenience and security. ● E-Commerce Growth: The rise of online shopping increases demand for credit card payments, as consumers prefer their ease and safety. ● Financial Literacy: Improved understanding of financial products encourages more consumers, especially in developing regions, to adopt credit cards. ● Urbanization: Growing urban populations, particularly in Asia-Pacific, lead to greater access to banking services and credit facilities. ● Emerging Markets: Rising disposable incomes in developing countries drive new credit card accounts as financial institutions expand their offerings. ● Consumer Convenience: The preference for quick and easy payment methods boosts credit card usage over cash transactions. ● Rewards Programs: Attractive loyalty programs incentivize consumers to use credit cards for everyday purchases. ● Regulatory Support: Government initiatives promoting cashless transactions foster a favourable environment for credit card adoption. ◉ Market Overview As of 2022, the global credit card market was primarily led by Visa, which held a 38.73% share of the worldwide payment volume. Mastercard followed with a 24% market share, while American Express (Amex) accounted for 4.61%. Notably, China UnionPay is also a major player in this space, surpassing Amex in terms of purchase volume ◉ Key Players in the Payment Card Industry 1. Visa NYSE:V ● Market Cap: $552 B ● Market Share: 38.73% ● Business Model: Payment network facilitating transactions between consumers, businesses, banks, and governments globally. ● Card Issuance: Does not issue cards itself. ● Global Reach: Extensive acceptance network across more than 200 countries. 2. Mastercard NYSE:MA ● Market Cap: $474 B ● Market Share: 24% ● Business Model: Payment processor and network partnering with banks to offer various card products. ● Card Issuance: Does not issue cards itself. ● Global Reach: Broad acceptance worldwide with diverse products catering to different consumer needs. 3. American Express NYSE:AXP ● Market Cap: $203 B ● Market Share: 4.61% ● Business Model: Card issuer and payment network offering unique benefits and rewards directly to cardholders. ● Card Issuance: Issues its own cards. ● Global Reach: High acceptance rate in the US (99% of merchants), lower in Europe and Asia due to higher transaction fees. ◉ Technical Aspects ● From a technical perspective, there's a notable similarity among the three stocks: each is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. ● All three stocks have formed a Rounding Bottom pattern, and after breaking out, their prices have climbed to new heights. ● While Mastercard and American Express are currently trading at their all-time highs, Visa is positioned just below its peak. ◉ Relative Strength The chart vividly demonstrates that American Express has excelled remarkably, achieving a return of nearly 85%, whereas Mastercard and Visa have delivered returns of 28% and 20%, respectively. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis 1. Visa ● Year-over-Year ➖ In FY23, Visa achieved a remarkable revenue increase of 11.4%, reaching $32.7 billion, up from $29.3 billion in FY22. ➖ The EBITDA for FY23 also saw a significant rise, totalling $22.9 billion compared to $20.6 billion in FY22. ● Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the latest June quarter, Visa's revenue rose to $8.9 billion, slightly surpassing the $8.8 billion reported in March 2024. This reflects a year-over-year growth of nearly 9.5% from $8.1 billion in the same quarter last year. ➖ The EBITDA for the most recent June quarter reached $6.2 billion, indicating an almost 9% increase from $5.7 billion in the same quarter last year. ➖ In June, the diluted EPS saw a modest rise, climbing to $9.35 (LTM) from $8.94 (LTM) in March 2024, which represents a notable year-over-year increase of 18.6% from $30.3 (LTM). 2. Mastercard ● Year-over-Year ➖ Mastercard's revenue for FY23 experienced a robust growth of 12.9%, reaching $25.1 billion, up from $22.2 billion in FY22. ➖ The EBITDA for FY23 also increased, reporting $22.9 billion, up from $20.6 billion in FY22. ● Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the recent June quarter, Mastercard's revenue climbed to $7.0 billion, compared to $6.3 billion in March 2024. Year-over-year, this marks an increase of nearly 11% from $6.3 billion in the same quarter last year. ➖ The EBITDA for the latest June quarter was $4.4 billion, reflecting an almost 9% rise from $3.9 billion in March 2024. ➖ In June, the diluted EPS saw a slight increase, rising to $13.08 (LTM) from $12.59 (LTM) in March 2024, which is a significant year-over-year increase of 23% from $10.67 (LTM). 3. American Express ● Year-over-Year ➖ For the fiscal year 2023, the company experienced a remarkable revenue growth of 9.7%, reaching an impressive $55.6 billion, compared to $50.7 billion in fiscal year 2022. ➖ Additionally, operating income showed a positive trajectory, with fiscal year 2023 reporting $10.8 billion, an increase from $10 billion in the previous fiscal year. ● Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the latest June quarter, revenue continued its upward trend, totalling $15.1 billion, up from $14.5 billion in March 2024. This represents a significant year-over-year growth of nearly 8.7% from $13.9 billion in the June quarter of the previous year. ➖ Furthermore, operating income for the June quarter reached $3.2 billion, marking a substantial increase of almost 19% from $2.7 billion in the same quarter last year. ➖ The diluted earnings per share (EPS) also saw a remarkable rise in June, climbing to $13.39 (LTM) from $12.14 (LTM) in March 2024, which is a significant jump of 36% compared to $9.83 (LTM) in the same quarter last year. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ Visa stands at a P/E ratio of 29.1x. ➖ Mastercard is at a P/E ratio of 38.7x. ➖ American Express shows a P/E ratio of 20.6x. ➖ When we analyze these figures, it becomes clear that American Express appears significantly undervalued compared to its peers. ● P/B Ratio ➖ Visa has a P/B ratio of 14.3x. ➖ Mastercard's P/B ratio is a staggering 64x. ➖ American Express, however, has a P/B ratio of just 6.8x. This further reinforces the notion that American Express is currently undervalued in the market. ● PEG Ratio ➖ Visa's PEG ratio is 1.56. ➖ Mastercard's PEG stands at 1.71. ➖ American Express shines with a PEG ratio of just 0.56. ➖ This metric also highlights American Express's superior value proposition compared to its peers. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ Visa's operating cash flow for the fiscal year 2023 has risen to $20.8 billion, marking a notable increase from $18.8 billion in fiscal year 2022. ➖ Similarly, Mastercard has experienced growth in its operating cash flow, which has reached $12 billion in fiscal year 2023, up from $11.2 billion in the previous year. ➖ In contrast, American Express has reported a significant decline in its operating cash flow, decreasing from $21.1 billion in fiscal year 2022 to $18.6 billion in fiscal year 2023. ◉ Debt Analysis 1. Visa ● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.52 as of June 2024, indicating a stable financial structure with moderate leverage. ● Total Debt: About $20.6 billion. ● Total Shareholder Equity: $39.7 billion. ● Analysis: Visa's ratio reflects a cautious debt approach, balancing equity and debt financing, with net debt well-supported by operating cash flow, enhancing financial stability. 2. Mastercard ● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 2.10, indicating a higher reliance on debt compared to Visa 5. ● Total Debt: $15.6 billion. ● Total Shareholder Equity: $7.5 billion. ● Analysis: Mastercard’s higher ratio suggests it is more aggressive in leveraging debt for growth initiatives compared to Visa. This strategy may lead to greater volatility in earnings due to interest obligations. 3. American Express ● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 1.80, indicating a significant level of debt relative to equity 5. ● Total Debt: $53.2 billion. ● Total Shareholder Equity: $29.54 billion. ● Analysis: American Express’s ratio shows a strong reliance on debt financing, which can enhance growth but also introduces risks related to interest payments and market conditions. ◉ Top Shareholders 1. Visa ● The Vanguard Group has notably boosted its investment in Visa, now commanding a remarkable 7.52% share, reflecting a 0.62% increase since the close of the March quarter. ● In contrast, Blackrock maintains a stake of approximately 6.7% in the firm. 2. Mastercard ● When it comes to Mastercard, Vanguard has also made strides, raising its ownership to an impressive 8.27%, which is a 1.02% uptick since the end of March. ● Blackrock, on the other hand, has a substantial 7.56% stake, showing a 1.17% growth from the same period. 3. American Express ● As for American Express, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway boasts a significant 21.3% stake in the company. ● Meanwhile, Vanguard holds a 6.36% interest, while Blackrock has a 5.89% share. ◉ Conclusion After a thorough analysis of both technical and financial indicators, we find that American Express offers a compelling valuation opportunity that is likely to attract investors. Nonetheless, it is important to recognize the significant debt load the company carries, a concern that also extends to Mastercard. ● From a technical standpoint, the chart for American Express seems to be stretched thin. Investors might want to hold off for a corrective dip to secure a more advantageous entry point. ● Mastercard's financial results reflect solid performance, though it carries a high level of debt. The technical chart indicates a slight overvaluation. Savvy investors might look to build their positions during times of price stabilization. ● Visa presents a well-rounded synergy between its technical and fundamental metrics. Its chart reveals a remarkable rebound, approaching previous all-time highs after a notable decline. The company's valuation and growth potential make it a compelling investment choice.
Editors' picks
NYSE:VLong
by NaranjCapital
7
Audjpy signalAfter the release of strong employment data from Australia, the AUD/JPY currency pair increased by more than 100 dollars. Considering the interest rate differential between the two countries and the lack of further rate hikes in Japan, the likelihood of the first scenario is higher. The second scenario is more likely if the market becomes risk off, leading to the rise of safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen. In that case, we would expect to see a decline in the AUD/JPY pair down to the bottom of the triangle pattern. Target for the first scenario (long trade): 101.425 Target for the second scenario (short trade): 99.705
Long
by habib75rajabi
Fundamental analysis of the market for 16.10.2024 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3065 today, although it lacks bullish confidence. The release of the UK Consumer Price Index news event weakened the Pound against the Dollar. Ahead of the key data release, speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may move to accelerate its rate cut cycle continues to undermine the British Pound (GBP) and act as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. That said, the moderate decline in the US Dollar (USD) is providing some support to the currency pair and helping to limit the downside. From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action can still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase amid the recent pullback from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022, reached last month. In addition, the oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still far from the oversold zone. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
TSLA BULLISH Tesla's recent event showcased the Cybercab and Robovan, advancing its vision of autonomous transport, but it left investors questioning the practicality and timelines. This skepticism led to mixed reactions and a drop in Tesla's stock. But is the media framing this as purely bearish news to trigger a reaction, or does it present a strategic buying opportunity? Our Supply and Demand Analysis Perspective: >On the Weekly chart, Tesla’s price drop landed right in the Weekly Demand Zone, indicating a value area where price is relatively low. This positioning suggests that last week’s news may have actually created an ideal entry point for investors. >The Daily chart also shows the price hitting a Demand Zone due to the news, making it a potentially opportune time to buy as Tesla continues to achieve milestones in autonomous tech. What’s Next?: >Price could consolidate within the Demand Zone, allowing for accumulation, or it might rally right away, responding to demand in this price area. We’ll also be watching for the price to target opposing gaps and the Supply Zone identified on the chart, which could serve as key levels for future resistance. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.*** Let’s see how this plays out... 👀👀
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradersPod
NASDAQ SHORT TRADE IDEAMarket Makers' Bias: -Fund Managers are currently holding net selling positions and signaling a bearish divergence on the Weekly price chart. The last time Fund Managers showed net buying positions with a bullish divergence, the market rallied for an entire week afterward; Now a bearish divergence Additional Fundamental Bias: -The Nasdaq appears overvalued relative to U.S. Treasury bonds, suggesting that tech stocks within the Nasdaq Index, such as #AAPL, #META, and #GOOG, may be similarly overvalued and likely to experience a downturn. -We also have Price gaps, they normally act as a magnet to be filled. Technical Analysis portion: -We are just hit the weekly covered daily Supply zone, price could be ready for a bearish move now. -Opposing gap zones and Demand zone can be your potential profit target. OTHERS: >Scalpers can ride the bullish trending week >Long term traders can position for a Sell for next week or position a Long trade at Supply for a retest. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.*** Let’s see how this plays out... 👀👀
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by TradersPod
$SNOW (Snowflake) | Long Analysis/ThesisNYSE:SNOW is primed for upside with a strong support level formed around $109 (indicated on chart). We are expecting these 3 upside price levels to be significant points of resistance in the coming weeks, however the $120 strike options will prosper as we approach the $145 level and will be the first to get cut. Remember: This is a great name that got unfairly beaten down. My good friend StockSavvyShay (on X) has written extensively as to how they've improved their business. These are some of his main thoughts to consider: Snowflake is enhancing its governance capabilities with Snowflake Horizon, a comprehensive cross-cloud governance model designed to simplify the management of complex data ecosystems. This solution offers integrated compliance, security, privacy, interoperability, and access features, allowing customers to efficiently manage data across various platforms and teams. Key enhancements include: - Achieving additional compliance certifications such as the UK's Cyber Essentials Plus and the FBI's CJIS Security Policy, ensuring top-tier security and privacy for public sector data. Introducing Data Quality Monitoring, which simplifies the tracking and improvement of data quality metrics. - Launching a Data Lineage UI that visualizes the impact of upstream changes on downstream data, enhancing data management transparency. - Developing Differential Privacy Policies to protect sensitive data without compromising individual record security. - Enhancing data classification with custom classifiers and a new UI-based workflow, supporting better data organization. - Rolling out the Trust Center for centralized security and compliance monitoring, helping to reduce costs and prevent risk escalations. In addition, Snowflake is improving cost management with a new Cost Management Interface, which provides a unified view of spend metrics across clouds and regions. This tool offers greater visibility into account-level usage, configurable spend views, and actionable recommendations to optimize resource allocation. These advancements strengthen Snowflake's position as a leader in data governance and cost management, providing customers with effective tools to streamline operations and enhance efficiency. RISKS: Convertible debt back in September leads me to believe that they are willing to decelerate growth and buy back their stock at a hefty multiple - this does give me cause for concern. However, the fact that price has held - despite this news gives the power to the bulls.
NYSE:SNOWLong
by PennyBois
US Interest Rates: Impact on Global Markets and StrategiesUS interest rates are a cornerstone of the global financial system, wielding significant influence over markets worldwide. Set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), these rates dictate the cost of borrowing, the return on savings, and overall liquidity in the economy. However, the impact of US interest rates goes far beyond American borders, affecting currency pairs, stock markets, and global investment strategies. This article explores how changes in US interest rates shape global markets, including their effect on currencies like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, stock prices, and the strategies investors can adopt to navigate rate hikes and cuts. The Role of US Interest Rates in Global Markets US interest rates, specifically the federal funds rate, are a crucial tool for managing the US economy, but they also play a critical role in global financial stability. When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it signals shifts in economic conditions, such as inflation control or economic stimulation, to investors and central banks worldwide. Effective federal funds rate - Bank of New York The influence of US interest rates extends beyond domestic policy. A higher US interest rate often attracts global capital, strengthening the US dollar as investors seek better returns. This shift in investment flows impacts foreign currencies, stock markets, and global economic growth, making US monetary policy a key factor in global financial strategies. For example, a rise in US interest rates can strengthen the dollar and increase borrowing costs for emerging markets holding dollar-denominated debt. On the other hand, lower US interest rates can boost global liquidity, prompting investment in riskier assets like foreign equities or bonds. As such, US interest rates serve as a global benchmark, shaping monetary policy decisions and influencing investment strategies worldwide. Inflation and US Interest Rates Inflation is a central consideration in the Fed’s interest rate decisions. When inflation rises, the Fed typically raises interest rates to cool the economy by making borrowing more expensive, which in turn curbs consumer spending and business investment. Conversely, when inflation is low or the economy is struggling, the Fed cuts interest rates to encourage borrowing, boost spending, and stimulate economic growth. The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) dropped during the coronavirus pandemic despite the Fed raising interest rates. However, the relationship between inflation and interest rates is a balancing act. If rates are cut too much or inflation rises while rates remain low, purchasing power can be eroded, causing instability in financial markets. In the global context, rising inflation in the US can weaken the dollar, affecting currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, while inflation-related volatility in commodities like oil and gold can ripple across global markets. For global investors, tracking US inflation trends and the Fed’s response is crucial for understanding potential shifts in exchange rates and market stability. Impact on Currency Pairs US interest rates have a direct impact on the US dollar’s value relative to other major currencies. When the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar usually strengthens because higher rates offer better returns on dollar-denominated investments. This increase in demand for the dollar causes currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY to move in favor of the dollar, making these currencies weaker relative to the USD. On the flip side, when the Fed lowers interest rates, the dollar typically weakens as investors look for higher returns in other currencies. As a result, other currencies gain strength relative to the USD, leading to significant shifts in global currency markets. Moreover, interest rate differentials—the gap between interest rates in different countries—create opportunities for strategies like the carry trade, where investors borrow in a currency with low interest rates (such as the Japanese yen) and invest in a currency offering higher yields (like the US dollar). These strategies add further volatility to currency markets, especially when central banks adjust their policies unexpectedly. Impact on Global Stock Markets US interest rates have a profound influence on global stock markets. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, yields on US Treasury bonds increase, making them more attractive to investors seeking safer returns. This can lead to a shift away from equities, especially in riskier markets like emerging economies, and into bonds, causing stock prices to fall. US Government Bonds 5 Years US Government Bonds 2 Years United State Interest Rate Higher interest rates can also hurt sectors that are sensitive to borrowing costs, such as technology and consumer discretionary, which rely heavily on debt to finance growth. In contrast, financial stocks, particularly banks, often benefit from rising interest rates as they can charge more for loans, improving their profitability. Conversely, when the Fed cuts interest rates, borrowing costs decrease, which can lead to a rally in stock markets. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary tend to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment, as companies find it cheaper to borrow and expand. At the same time, dividend-paying stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs) become more attractive as investors seek better returns than those offered by bonds. Possible Market Reactions to a Fed Rate Cut A Federal Reserve rate cut can trigger several reactions across global markets: --Stock Market Rally: Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses, potentially boosting economic activity and stock prices. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary often benefit, while investors may also flock to dividend-paying stocks due to their relatively higher yields. --Weaker US Dollar: A rate cut usually weakens the dollar, as lower rates make the currency less attractive to investors. This depreciation can benefit exporters and companies with significant foreign revenues but can hurt importers. --Increased Inflation Risk: While rate cuts stimulate growth, they can also fuel inflation if demand exceeds supply. Investors may turn to inflation-protected assets like commodities or inflation-linked bonds. --Emerging Markets: Lower US interest rates reduce borrowing costs for emerging markets, encouraging investment in their higher-yielding assets. However, a weaker dollar can lead to currency appreciation in these markets, impacting their export competitiveness. --Bond Market Dynamics: A Fed rate cut can lead to lower yields on short-term US government bonds, pushing investors to seek better returns in long-term bonds or riskier assets. Strategies for Managing Interest Rate Volatility In periods of fluctuating interest rates, investors must adjust their strategies to protect portfolios and capitalize on new opportunities. During Interest Rate Hikes: --Shift to Bonds and Fixed-Income Assets: As interest rates rise, bonds, particularly short-term ones, offer higher yields, making them an attractive addition to portfolios. --Focus on Financial Stocks: Banks and financial institutions benefit from higher rates, as they can charge more for loans, increasing their profits. --Reduce Exposure to High-Growth Stocks: High-growth sectors, like technology, are more sensitive to rising borrowing costs and may underperform during rate hikes. During Interest Rate Cuts: --Increase Equity Exposure: Rate cuts often lead to stock market rallies, particularly in growth-oriented sectors like technology. Increasing equity exposure during rate cuts can help capture gains. --Look for Dividend-Paying Stocks: In a low-rate environment, dividend-paying stocks become more attractive as investors seek yield. --Consider Real Estate Investments: Lower rates reduce borrowing costs, making real estate and REITs more appealing as an investment. Managing Volatility in Your Portfolio To navigate the volatility caused by interest rate changes, diversification is essential. A well-diversified portfolio, spanning stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, can help mitigate the impact of rate fluctuations on overall returns. Currency hedging is another key tool for managing volatility. When US interest rates rise, the dollar strengthens, potentially eroding the value of foreign-denominated investments. Hedging strategies using currency futures or options can protect against adverse currency movements. Lastly, a focus on defensive stocks—such as utilities and consumer staples—can provide stability in uncertain times. These companies tend to have stable earnings and are less affected by interest rate changes. Conclusion US interest rates wield significant influence over global markets, affecting everything from currency pairs to stock prices. Investors must stay informed about the Fed's actions and adapt their strategies to reflect the current interest rate environment. By incorporating risk management tools like diversification, currency hedging, and a focus on defensive stocks, investors can better protect their portfolios and capitalize on opportunities that arise from interest rate fluctuations.
TVC:DXYEducation
by FOREXN1
3
Will the revealed labor data continue to support USDJPY?Macro theme: - The latest Sep NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings have all surpassed market expectations. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the 32% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November has been eliminated, shifting the odds toward a likely rate freeze instead. - Japan's newly appointed economic minister expressed support for further interest rate hikes as long as they do not destabilize the economy or markets, signalling confidence in the BoJ's approach. - The yen's outlook remains uncertain, influenced by the robust US labor market and ambiguity surrounding the BoJ's potential rate hikes. Technical theme: - USDJPY quickly recovered from the previous downtrend and closed above both EMAs, indicating a solid upward momentum. - If USDJPY extends its gain to close above 149.25, USDJPY may retest the resistance around 152.00. - On the contrary, a failure to close above 149.25 may prompt a temporary correction within 147.30-149.25 until an apparent breakout occurs. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
GBPJPY Oct 4 2024 pending buy limit activatedDetailed entry on GBPJPY maximizing liquidity grab. :) This trade was taken during N.Y session of Oct 3 2024. I set pending buy limit because I saw Slow motion while approaching fair value gap (see charts arrow) . As I go to my fundamentals i saw an important NEWS --> NFP USD. Anticipating large momentum because of the demand introduced this week. This trade was a success, years of learning and charts behavior observation. Trade with confidence and patience. :) Have a great day folks! #wyckoff #supplyanddemand
Long
by glyrad
$DXY US DOLLAR BULLISH **BIG BOYS BIAS (CFTC COT INDEX REPORT) >Commercials - Extremely Bullish >Retailers - Extremely Bearish (Always Wrong) >Fund Managers are in-trend with the price chart (Trend Followers) **USD Valuation Against EURO >We are still in at the Overbought region Others: >Price already took the Daily Demand Zone, price is now accumulating and the catalyst for the BULLISH move could be the US FED news and the EURO Inflation Rate news release on Monday. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by TradersPod
TSLA SHORT TRADE IDEA**STOCKS VS USD & TREASURY BONDS - Currently Oversold signaling a bearish sentiment. Price would need a reason to for a bearish move and could take the highlighted Supply Zone. Supply and Demand Analysis: >Price could take the the daily Supply Zone and the PRICE GAP within the supply zone could get filled. >Price could fill the Gap before a bearish move and go to the highlighted opposing Demand Zone ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by TradersPod
GBPUSD BEARISH FOR THIS WEEK **CHECK MY EURUSD ANALYSIS FOR THE CFTC COT REPORT BIAS CFTC COT Report Bias: BEARISH **British Pound's value against the Dollar is still at the over-sold region **Supply and Demand Analysis - Price Is accumulating at Supply Zone #1 and could reach Zupply Zone #2 before the bearish move and could target the opposing demand zones highlighted on the chart. **Others - the catalyst for the bearish move could be the US FED news release on Monday. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Short
by TradersPod
EURUSD STILL BEARISH FOR THIS WEEK**BIG BOYS BIAS (CFTC COT INDEX REPORT) >Commercials are still long term Bearish >Retailers are long term Bullish (Always Wrong) >Fund Managers are Diverging from price chart (Trend Followers) **EURO Valuation Against USD >We are still in at the Oversold region Others: >Price already took the Daily Supply Zone, price is now accumulating and the catalyst for the bearish move could be the US FED news and the EURO Inflation Rate news release on Monday. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Short
by TradersPod
Will ongoing risk-on theme keep dampening the US dollar further?Macro theme: - On Tue, PBoC surprised investors with a new set of support measures that positively impact risky assets. This unexpected move has injected a fresh wave of optimism into the markets. -In contrast, the latest data from the US revealed a surprising decline in consumer confidence, which fell to 98.7 this month from a revised 105.6 in Aug. This marked the most significant drop since Aug 2021, sparking concerns about the health of the US economy. - As a result, market expectations for another 0.5% rate cut by the Fed at its Nov meeting have increased significantly. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a move jumped to 60.7% from 53% just a day earlier. This shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance has further weakened the US dollar as investors become more risk-tolerant. Technical theme: - On the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its support area of 100.55-100.60 and confirmed its downward movement. The price is trading below both EMAs by a fair distance, and there is a risk of a potential mean reversion if it tests a strong psychological level, such as 100.00, ahead. - If DXY extends its decline, it may retest and find psychological support around 100.00, confluence with its descending channel's lower bound.  - Meanwhile, DXY may recover to fill its gap and retest the broken area around 100.55-100.60 before resuming its downward movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
2
Market News Report - 22 September 2024It was a historic week in FX, as the Fed delivered a half-percent interest rate cut for the first time since 2020. Based partly on this news, currencies like the British pound and the Australian dollar found strength across numerous markets. In our latest news report, let's see what to expect from all the major forex markets performance-wise. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Fed delivered a dovish move with a historic 50 basis points (bps) rate cut. So, the bearish bias firmly remains, with signals of two 25 bps cuts in the pipeline for the rest of 2024. Furthermore, unemployment was recently revised higher. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals, having recently reached a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart. Interestingly, a clear break has yet to occur after several weeks. So, be mindful of a potential technically driven retracement. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Markets anticipate several full rate cuts before the year ends, with the Fed being keen to harness a soft landing. Also, any data on weakened jobs would be another bearish driver for the dollar. However, any potential strength in upcoming GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and jobs would make rate cuts less urgent, allowing for a USD retracement. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher. Sources report that a cut in October is unlikely, but one in December is more likely. Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After recently breaking a major resistance, the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut in October is less likely, with a 76% chance of a hold (according to STIR markets). So future inflation data remains key, with improvements likely to tick the euro higher. We should note that the interest rate differential has become more positive for EUR after the latest Fed cut. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in last week's meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be "restrictive for sufficiently long." As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Expect any shocks in inflation (or other data like labour) to send the pound lower. Like the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. However, it is more bullish. We must go onto the weekly chart to see the next resistance target at (1.34825). However, it hasn't yet properly broken the closest area at 1.32666. On the other hand, the nearest key support is far away at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation. All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. USD/JPY has long been bearish, recently surpassing (but not breaking with confidence) the major resistance at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one bullish catalyst for the yen. Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks are JPY-positive. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation rate. (Diarise the upcoming rate statement on Tuesday for AUD.) Governor Bullock also stressed that the latter's results need to improve before a cut is envisioned. The Aussie remains sensitive to China's recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country's steelmakers. The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having exceeded the recent resistance level (at 0.68239). While the next nearby target is 0.68711, we need to see how it behaves near the latter. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per their last meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. New Zealand's central bank recently dropped the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25%. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220. While the next target is at 0.63696, the latter area is still worth considering. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. Rising unemployment and weak economic growth are the key drivers for this dovishness. The ongoing mortgage stress remains another bearish catalyst. The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated some time ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Moreover, STIR markets have priced in an additional cut sometime this year. The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. Still, this narrative is getting tired. Expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a 25bps rate cut this week (a 43% chance, up from 36% in the last week) and a 50bps cut in December this year. Secondly, SNB expects a moderate improvement in inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and unemployment to rise slightly in the near term. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis. We are seeing a clear range on USD/CHF in a strong bear move. So, let's see which side the market is going to incline more towards going forward. The major support level is closer at (0.83326), while the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion This week should be milder than the previous one filled with interest rate decisions. The main high-impact economic release to watch out for is the RBA rate statement on Tuesday. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but this report should help you determine your bias toward each currency.
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
GBPUSD Sets 2+ Year Highs as the Fed Out-Cuts its UK PeerThe pair gains nearly 5% this year and the latest round of policy decisions by the Fed and the BoE, sent it the highest levels since the first quarter of 2022. The US Fed on Wednesday made its belated pivot with an outsized 0.5% reduction and pointed to another 50 bps worth of cuts by the end of the year. The Bank of England started lowering rates earlier than its US counterpart, with the 0.25% cut of August. Still wary over price pressures though, it has maintained a cautious stance around further easing. This apprehension was reaffirmed on Thursday, as policymakers stood pat on rates. The Fed out-cut the BoE and is on track to deliver more reductions, setting up a favorable monetary policy differential for GBP/USD. Bulls now have the opportunity to push for the 1.3483 handle, but we are cautious at this time for further strength. The Fed may have pointed to steep rate cut path as it tries to ensure a strong labor market and a soft landing, but may have a hard time implementing it, as it could put upward pressure to prices. On the other hand, despite the BoE’s trepidation, pressure could mount for faster pace and two more cuts are not unreasonable. Furthermore, the RSI moves towards overbought conditions, so we could see pressure. Daily closes below the EMA200 (black line) would be needed for the bullish bias to pause, but that is hard to justify under current monetary policy dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM