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Comprehensive Gold Analysis for the Week of January 6, 2025Comprehensive Gold Analysis for the Week of January 6, 2025 Gold enters 2025 with a complex yet promising outlook, driven by a combination of macroeconomic, technical, and geopolitical factors shaping a favorable environment for investors. Below is an in-depth analysis of the current market conditions and potential scenarios for gold this week. Current Market Context Gold concluded the first trading week of January near $2,657 per ounce , consolidating its upward momentum from late 2024. This movement has been underpinned by: - Sustained central bank demand , particularly in emerging markets. - Geopolitical uncertainty , including tensions in the Middle East and Europe. - Expectations for looser monetary policies from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed). In 2024, gold achieved an exceptional annual gain of +27% , its best performance since 2010, driven by its role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The metal reached an all-time high of $2,790 , setting the stage for continued volatility and opportunity in 2025. Key Fundamental Drivers 1. Global Monetary Policies - The Fed adopted a cautious stance in December, signaling a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is only an 11.2% probability of a rate cut in January, suggesting short-term stability in interest rates. - In contrast, Europe and China are expected to pursue more accommodative monetary policies. China has already announced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to counter its economic slowdown. 2. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East remain significant drivers of safe-haven demand. - Additionally, uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies under President Donald Trump is adding to market volatility. While some policies may bolster the dollar, others—such as trade tariffs—could increase demand for gold as a hedge. 3. Central Bank and Physical Demand - Central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold reserves since 2022, with purchases expected to exceed the historical average of 500 tons annually in 2025. - In China, a weakening yuan and a sluggish real estate market could further boost physical gold demand. Technical Analysis Gold is currently trading within a critical range that could determine its short-term trajectory: - Key Resistance Levels: - $2,666 (psychological barrier). - $2,700 (significant technical resistance). - All-time highs near $2,790 . - Key Support Levels : - $2,635 , aligned with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). - Lower levels around $2,600 and $2,532 , which could act as correction zones. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near neutral territory (50), indicating potential for upward movement if immediate resistance is breached. However, the range between $2,607 and $2,736 will be pivotal in defining this week’s trend. Projections for This Week Bullish Scenario A decisive breakout above $2,666 could pave the way for further gains toward psychological levels at $2,700 and potentially beyond. Catalysts for this scenario include: - Weak U.S. economic data—such as Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report—supporting expectations for monetary easing. - Escalation of geopolitical tensions or clear indications of additional Chinese stimulus. Bearish or Corrective Scenario Conversely, unexpected strength in the U.S. dollar or robust economic data could exert downward pressure on gold prices. In this case: - A pullback toward support levels at $2,635 or even $2,600 would be likely before resuming the broader uptrend. Strategic Insights Gold maintains a favorable outlook for this week due to strong fundamental and technical support. However, traders should closely monitor three key factors: 1. The release of U.S. labor market data (NFP) on Friday. 2. Movements in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields. 3. Emerging geopolitical developments that could shift risk sentiment. The current consolidation near critical technical levels offers opportunities for both bullish and corrective strategies. Active risk management will be essential given the anticipated volatility.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn96005149
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 02, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 157.300 in the early hours of Asian trading on Thursday.Expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for a long time are boosting the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).Markets in Japan are closed for the rest of the week.On Friday, we will be keeping a close eye on the S&P Global US Manufacturing Activity Index for December. Traders are currently digesting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut rates by a quarter point at its December meeting, which was characterised by a hawkish sentiment. Analysts are anticipating that some of Trump's policy proposals, including tariffs, could potentially lead to higher inflation. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that it is too early to predict this, emphasising that the central bank will proceed with caution regarding further rate cuts.The significant difference in interest rates between the US and Japan is likely to provide a favourable tailwind for the pair in the near term. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last week that the central bank anticipates the Japanese economy will move closer to achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably this year.The BOJ is scheduled to release its quarterly report on the regional economy next week, which is likely to include an assessment of wage increases across the country. This report may provide insights into the BOJ's subsequent policy decision on 24 January. Meanwhile, verbal intervention by Japanese authorities may help limit the JPY's losses, with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato noting on Friday that the official will take appropriate measures against excessive currency fluctuations. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 157.000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 30, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair has risen for the third consecutive day, trading around the 1.04300 mark during Asian hours on Monday. This rise can be attributed to the remarks made by Robert Holtzmann, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB).On Saturday, the ECB's Holtzmann said that the central bank's next interest rate cut could be more protracted after the recent rise in inflation, as reported by Reuters. He also said: 'I don't see a rate hike at the moment'. 'One plausible scenario is that Trump's tariffs will lead to slower growth overall and also create inflationary pressures'. Moreover, the upside potential of the EUR/USD pair could be limited as markets continue to digest the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) aggressive bias.The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point at its December meeting, and recent dot plots point to two rate cuts next year. However, earlier this month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that officials will be cautious about further rate cuts after the expected quarter-point rate cut.The Fed's aggressive outlook is likely to support the US dollar and boost EUR/USD in the near term.Economists generally expect the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump to implement tax cuts, tariffs and deregulation, measures expected to spur inflation. This could prompt the U.S. central bank to adjust its forecast for the coming year. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 27, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is losing stability near 157.750 during the early Asian session on Friday, following the release of Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.The Japanese yen (JPY) rose after the data was released. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the New Year holiday next week. The Statistics Bureau of Japan released data on Friday showing that Tokyo's core CPI rose to 3.0% y/y in December from 2.6% in November, while Tokyo's consumer price index excluding fresh food and energy was 2.4% y/y in December from 2.2% previously. The reading is likely to encourage the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to continue raising the interest rate in January. Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank anticipates the Japanese economy will move closer to meeting the BoJ's 2 per cent inflation target sustainably next year. Ueda added that the timing and pace of adjustments in the degree of monetary accommodation will depend on future developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions. Regarding the US dollar, the anticipation of a reduced number of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may offer near-term support.The Fed reduced interest rates by a quarter point at its December meeting and has revised its forecast for 2025, predicting just two rate cuts, down from an initial estimate of four. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 158.000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 24, 2024 EURUSDIn the early Asian session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trading with small losses near 1.04000. This is due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates less frequently in 2025, which is providing some support to the dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the holiday trading week. The resumption of the Fed's 'raise rates longer' policy will be a key factor in the final trading days of the year, which could provide significant upside for the US Dollar (USD).Last week, the U.S. central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter point, as per the latest quarterly schedule. The Fed committee has revised its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. The Fed now forecasts a rate cut of just 50 basis points (bps), or two rate cuts, compared to four quarter-point cuts.Across the pond, the euro (EUR) is weakening amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the Eurozone is "very close" to meeting the medium-term inflation target set by the ECB, according to the Financial Times on Monday. She also stated that the central bank would consider further cuts to interest rates if inflation continues to fall towards the 2 percent target, as curbing growth is no longer necessary. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPAUD to the moon?Taking a long position on GBPAUD, main reasons being: - BoE holding interest rates for now and less rate cuts are expected next year, could drive more institutions to hold GBP and increase it's value - AUD are trade partners with China who are experiencing significant economic instability - COT traders are 57% long on GBP (+2.14% compared to last week) - COT traders are 52% long on AUD, but are adding more short positions (-4.53% change in net long positions compared to last week) - Retail traders are 93% short on GBPAUD (I find that retail is usually wrong, so this is a positive signal for GBPAUD longs in my book) This trade is more based on Australia's weakness rather than Britain's strength. I was also thinking of shorting AUDJPY (see previous trade idea) or AUDUSD. I couldn't get in a position that I liked on AUDJPY (yet) and I'm already in a short position on EURUSD, so I want to diversify a bit away from the US Dollar. The reason I'm entering here is because it is filling an imbalance candle, and it's also at the 0.682 mark on the Fibonacci retracement tool. If I get taken out I don't mind, there may be better entries on GBPAUD available if that happens, or there may be an opportunity to short AUDJPY instead, which I prefer the fundamentals of. Don't take this as investment advice, I'm just sharing what I'm doing. Please don't follow me blindly, create your own strategy and ideas.
Long
by ciantrades
3
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 18, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty capitalising on a modest recovery against its US counterpart from the previous day, attracting fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The latest data from Japan shows an unexpected improvement in the country's trade balance in November, driven by strong export growth. However, the data also points to weak local demand, as indicated by the decline in imports. This, along with an uncertain economic outlook amid concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, confirms expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates unchanged later this week, which will have the effect of undermining the yen. Meanwhile, the prospect of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, as well as expectations that Trump's policies could boost government borrowing and accelerate inflation, continue to support US Treasury yields. This is another factor weighing on the low-yielding JPY, although the softer risk tone helps to limit the potential for further losses. JPY bears may also choose to adopt a more cautious approach and refrain from making any significant bets ahead of a key central bank event. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting today, followed by the Bank of Japan's monetary policy update on Thursday. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 153.500, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
AUDJPY Fall? And potential Stock Market correction?Potential short idea on AUDJPY Reasons for (potential) entry: - COT traders are buying JPY and selling AUD fairly aggressively - AUD cutting interest rates, JPY hiking interest rates - AUD could be under pressure due to reliance on China, who are facing economic uncertainty In the past, when COT traders have bought JPY as aggressively as this there's been a stock market correction after it. Not saying it's definitely going to happen again - but JPY is seen as a 'safe-haven' currency and it's usually bought up when investors are risk-off. Stocks have been on a crazy bull run for the last year, I wouldn't be too surprised if there was some sort of correction in it soon.
Short
by ciantrades
7
GBPJPY Analysis - SellGBPJPY Analysis Overview 1. Seasonality: GBP: Bearish — Historical data for this time period shows GBP typically weakens. JPY: Bullish — Seasonal trends favor JPY strength, aligning with a sell bias for GBPJPY. --- 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders): GBP: 4-week flip indicates a Sell bias. JPY: 4-week flip indicates a Buy bias. Non-commercial long positions are increasing, indicating strong demand for JPY. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI (Leading Economic Indicator): GBP: Decreasing — Suggests economic slowdown and bearish momentum for GBP. JPY: Range — Neutral economic outlook, but overall supportive of its safe-haven appeal. Endogenous Factors: GBP: Decreasing — Internal economic conditions are weakening, favoring a sell bias. JPY: Increasing — Positive domestic factors support JPY strength. --- 4. Exogenous Factors: GBPJPY: Classified as a Strong Sell due to broader external influences such as global risk aversion and JPY's safe-haven demand. --- 5. Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour chart: There is a visible order block and a fair value gap (FVG) in the price structure. The price has retraced to 50% of the order block, presenting a favorable opportunity to enter a short position. Confluence from bearish market structure and resistance zone further validates the sell setup. --- Bias: Strong Sell Based on seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, exogenous influences, and technical analysis, GBPJPY is poised for a significant downside move. Look for selling opportunities at or near the current resistance levels within the order block.
Short
by asadamalik
4
SPX500 forming a Double Top pattern, will it keep going up?Technical Analysis: ================ SPX500 has formed a noticeable double top technical pattern. If it respects the double top pattern the price should touch around 5700. But if it keeps climbing the 6000 may become another support level. Fundamental Analysis: =================== 1) Israel war seems to be calming, which should reduce the uncertainty and boost the stock market 2) Russia Ukraine war is intensifying as a result of latest attacks. This war has potential to undermine all other good news and could go with the double top (technical analysis) 3) Santa Claus Rally can boost the stock market in coming weeks followed by correction in Jan 2025 ===== Happy Thanks Giving to all the traders ====
OANDA:SPX500USD
by spranav
TradeCityPro | EURAUD Analysis Buyers in Control👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s step outside the crypto space to analyze the EURAUD entry triggers for the coming week, examining both technical and fundamental aspects. 🌍 Fundamental Overview The EURAUD pair highlights the ongoing divergence between the Eurozone and Australian economic conditions. The ECB’s hawkish stance, supported by persistent inflation, strengthens the Euro, while the RBA’s dovish policies amid cooling inflation and a softening housing market weigh on the Australian Dollar. Additionally, Australia’s dependence on Chinese demand for commodities has created vulnerabilities due to China’s weaker-than-expected industrial growth. Geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East conflicts, have supported the Euro, reinforcing its stability as a safe-haven currency. In contrast, Australia’s economic slowdown and labor market weakness are adding pressure on the AUD. The balance may shift as Europe's energy prices stabilize and China introduces economic stimulus measures. 🕒 4-Hour Time Frame On the 4-hour chart, buyer momentum is evident, particularly as the pair rebounded strongly from the 1.63584 support level after rejecting the 1.65469 resistance twice. This renewed bullish strength signals active buyers in the market. 📈 Long Position Trigger The 1.65469 level remains a strong trigger for a long position. Breaking above this resistance with volume could target the 1.684 zone, supported by RSI confirmation at 69.96. 📉 Short Position Trigger Despite the bullish momentum, a failed breakout or lower high near resistance could set up a short opportunity. A more reliable entry would be a breakdown of the 1.6358 support and trendline, targeting the 1.6016 level for a pullback. The pair’s trajectory will likely depend on macroeconomic developments and shifting risk sentiment in the week ahead. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
6
Black gold continues its decline!Oil prices are falling for several reasons: • Saudi Arabia has decided to lower oil prices for buyers in the Asian market. • A strong dollar continues to pressure black gold. The drop in oil prices below $70 per barrel is likely being restrained by OPEC+ policies aimed at controlling supply volumes. The organization has decided to postpone the planned January 2025 increase in oil production to April 2025. Traders dealing with Brent crude oil show the most pessimistic sentiment in recent months after OPEC+ countries decided to delay the resumption of oil production halted since 2022. At best, this postponement may only slow the price decline amid seasonal demand reduction in the first quarter. With the holidays approaching, market volatility is also decreasing, as traders exercise caution and avoid making aggressive bets on sharp price movements. Morgan Stanley and HSBC have revised their forecasts for oil oversupply, expecting Brent crude oil prices to reach $70 per barrel by 2025. Bank of America analysts predict that the average price of Brent will be $65 per barrel in the coming years. According to a survey conducted by the law firm Haynes Boone LLP, banks expect WTI crude oil prices to drop to $60 per barrel by 2027. Trade #BRENT and #WTI crude oil with FreshForex and maximize your profits with leverage of 1:2000 and tight spreads. This allows you to manage positions efficiently, minimize costs, and capitalize on price fluctuations for potential gains.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
TradeCityPro EURJPY Analysis Key Opportunities Ahead👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s move beyond crypto and analyze the popular EUR/JPY currency pair from both fundamental and technical perspectives, preparing for potential triggers in the days ahead. 🌍 Fundamental Overview Monetary Policy: The ECB’s hawkish stance strengthens the Euro, while the BoJ’s dovish policies weaken the Yen. Economic Data: Eurozone GDP and inflation drive the Euro, while Japan's industrial performance and exports influence the Yen. Risk Sentiment: The Yen gains during risk-off scenarios as a safe haven, while the Euro thrives on Eurozone stability. Geopolitical Events: The Euro reacts to EU political shifts, while the Yen benefits from global tensions, such as those in the Middle East. Yield Differentials: Higher bond yields in the Eurozone compared to Japan attract capital flows to the Euro. Current dynamics show the Euro is stronger, but shifts in risk sentiment or changes in BoJ policy could favor the Yen. 🕒 4-Hour Time Frame On the 4-hour timeframe, we’ve seen price rejection from the 166.63 resistance level, followed by a downward move. After breaking the descending trendline, the price retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level, creating potential setups: 📈 Long Position Trigger After breaking the 159.849 level and Fibonacci resistance, a long entry is viable, targeting 162.104. An RSI breakout into overbought territory could add momentum. 📉 Short Position Trigger If rejected at resistance and breaking below 159.331, a short position is possible, targeting 157.80 or the significant support at 155.119. Stay alert for confirmations to act on these scenarios. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
by tradecitypro
4
EURUSD → False breakout of resistance. DowntrendFX:EURUSD is testing resistance in the downtrend phase. The maneuver ends with a false breakout of resistance at 1.067. On the daily timeframe the price is squeezed between the strong resistance at 1.06011 and the local support at 1.05. So, if the bears keep the defense below the key resistance, the currency pair will continue to fall in the short term. The target in this case may be the area of 1.05 - 1.044. But, technically, the retest of 1.067 may provoke a local breakout of the level and the price movement to the channel resistance against which there will also be a high probability of formation of a false breakout. Resistance levels: 1.067, 1.965, 1.076 Support levels: 1.0448, 1.0331 Emphasis on resistance. Confirmation of the nearest resistance in the form of price consolidation below the level, if retested, could be a good entry zone. But if resistance is broken, the focus will shift to 1.065 - 1.067
by MarketAnalyzar
BITCOIN →The Trend Reversal. The End Of Growth? Or Not!BINANCE:BTCUSDT Still maintains a bullish market structure as evidenced by the local upward channel within the broader consolidation channel. After a strong rally, the price is moving into consolidation. Consolidation is the accumulation of a position. Accordingly, there can be different situations inside such a figure: traps, traps, false breakdowns, unpredictable impulses and so on. And it all has one goal - accumulation. Technically, the bullish market structure is not broken. Globally - flat. Locally - an ascending channel. The risk of breaking the bullish structure will be if the price starts to approach 91K - 85K. Then the question about deeper correction or even reversal will become more serious, but not now. The bulls are actively defending the boundaries of the local ascending channel and it may lead the price to retest 99-102K, but at the moment there are no preconditions for strong growth. The market will need a few days to recover its strength. Just during this period of time, the asset may show further intentions. Resistance levels: 99K, 101.3K, 104K Support levels: 95.9K, 91.6K If the bears hold the defense below 99K and the price starts to fall down, then pay attention to 95.9K. Further fall or consolidation inside the channel will depend on this level. If the bulls will be able to keep the defense inside the channel (above the support), then in the medium term we can count on the continuation of growth.
by MarketAnalyzar
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 12, 2024 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: On Wednesday, GBP/USD exhibited limited movement, stalling near 1.27500 in response to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which aligned with market expectations. The remainder of the week is relatively quiet in terms of UK economic data, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release on Thursday. The US PPI inflation rate saw a slight increase in the year to November, with core PPI inflation rising from 2.6% to 2.7% year-on-year. Core PPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year. Additionally, monthly core CPI inflation increased in November, rising from 0.2% in October to 0.3% month-on-month. Despite the overall increase in core inflation, Wednesday's CPI figures were largely in line with expectations, maintaining a moderate outlook for investors. CME's FedWatch tool indicates that there is now a 95% probability of a 25 bps rate cut when the Fed meets for its latest rate meeting on 18 December. Despite a short-term rise in CPI inflation, investors have concluded that the fluctuations in the published data are insufficient to prompt the Fed to reverse its latest quarter-point rate cut to end 2024. US PPI inflation is expected to decline on Thursday, with markets anticipating a similar outcome to this week's CPI data. Producer-level inflation is projected to increase at the front end of the curve but remain near recent levels. The core price index is forecast to rise to 3.2% y/y, up slightly from the previous reading of 3.1%. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.27500, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
TradeCityPro | WTI Analysis Fundamental and Technical Insights👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s step away from the crypto space and analyze West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from both technical and fundamental perspectives. 🌍 Fundamental Overview Supply Dynamics: U.S. shale oil production and OPEC+ decisions are key drivers. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, such as the Israel-Gaza conflict or Iran-related sanctions, pose significant risks to global oil supply. Demand Trends : Economic growth and seasonal fluctuations influence demand, but the rise of renewables signals a gradual reduction in reliance on crude oil. Geopolitical Factors : The Middle East, a hub for major oil producers, heavily impacts markets. Regional conflicts often lead to price spikes due to supply concerns. Macroeconomic Trends : A stronger U.S. dollar and rising interest rates suppress oil demand, while inflationary pressures support higher prices. Recent instability in the Middle East has heightened market volatility, underlining WTI's sensitivity to geopolitical events. 🕒 4-Hour Time Frame In the 4-hour timeframe, WTI has been trending downward, nearing a key daily support level at 66.938, which has held multiple times and may attract buyers, shifting momentum. 📈 Long Position Trigger wait for the 4-hour trendline breakout and trigger confirmations, such as RSI exceeding 73.48. The current 4-hour candle breaking the trendline could signal entry. 📉 Short Position Trigger if the candle is rejected and turns red with strong bearish momentum or breaks below 66.938, it could trigger a sell opportunity in the market. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by tradecitypro
6
AUDUSD→At Critical Support Level's Could It Drop Further ?OrNot!FX:AUDUSD The AUD/USD chart reveals that since late October, the pair has been in a downtrend. This is largely driven by monetary policy differences: while the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has yet to initiate rate reductions. Tomorrow, the RBA will announce its decision on interest rates. All 44 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the rate to remain at 4.35%, given persistently high core inflation (3.5%) and low unemployment. Previously, experts forecasted rate cuts in the first quarter of 2025. However, most now anticipate reductions no earlier than the second quarter, as the RBA focuses on bringing inflation back to its 2–3% target range.
by MarketAnalyzar
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 09, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair commenced the new week in a subdued manner, fluctuating within a narrow trading range below the mid-1.27000s during the Asian session. Spot prices remain well below the three-week highs reached on Friday, with the 1.28000 mark still out of reach. However, the fundamental backdrop suggests that caution is warranted for those with a bullish outlook. The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on Friday, indicated that the unemployment rate increased in November and confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would reduce borrowing costs in December. However, the initial market reaction proved to be short-lived, with investors betting that the US central bank would either slow the pace or halt the rate-cutting cycle in January. This in turn enabled the US dollar (USD) to maintain a position above its lowest level in almost a month, which exerted a negative influence on the GBP/USD ratio. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, China's economic challenges and concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's upcoming trade tariffs are additional factors supporting the US dollar as a safe haven. The British pound has encountered resistance from investors in the face of a dovish outlook from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who anticipates four interest rate cuts in 2025. This further constrained the GBP/USD exchange rate as market participants await the release of US consumer inflation data, which is expected to provide a boost to the currency. The much-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is expected to provide further insights into the trajectory of the Fed rate cut and inform policymakers' decisions at the upcoming December meeting. This will play a pivotal role in driving demand for the US dollar in the near term and influencing the next phase of the GBP/USD pair's directional movement. Additionally, the speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor David Ramsden on Monday may impact the GBP price dynamics, presenting short-term opportunities for traders. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.27000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPCAD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 06GBPCAD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality GBP: Seasonality indicates a **sell** signal for GBP in the first week of December. CAD: Seasonality suggests a **strong buy** signal for CAD. Seasonality Bias: Sell GBPCAD --- 2. COT Report GBP: COT RSI: 52 weeks at 30%, 26 and 13 weeks at bottom. COT Index: 3-year at 50%, 1-year at 30%, indicating weak positioning for GBP. Net Non-Commercial: Decreasing, showing a bearish sentiment. CAD: COT RSI: 52, 26, and 13 weeks at 20% and increasing, showing bullish momentum. COT Index: 3-year and 1-year at 20% and increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. Net Non-Commercial: Increasing, with a positive bias. COT Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators: GBP: Decreasing, signaling economic weakness. CAD: Increasing, pointing to economic strength. Endogenous Factors: GBP: Decreasing, aligning with a sell sentiment. CAD: Increasing, further supporting a buy stance. Exogenous Factors: GBPCAD exogenous signal indicates a buy CAD, sell GBP sentiment. Fundamental Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence identified, indicating potential downside movement. Breakout Indicator: A red arrow confirms bearish momentum on key breakout levels. Resistance Zone: Price is currently at a strong resistance zone, showing rejection patterns. Technical Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- Final Bias: Sell GBPCAD The alignment across seasonality, COT data, fundamental indicators, and technical analysis strongly supports a sell setup for GBPCAD.
Short
by asadamalik
$BTC #Bitcoin Just Gonna Leave This Here (Hmmmm..Maybe?) 😝This is just adding onto my logarithmic regression-inversion theory and how I personally believe the $BTC price movements may specifically play out. The general theory is that the logarithmic regression of $BTC will invert at a certain point in the next 1-3 years, changing the price suppression $BTC has had for its whole life into exponential support. I personally believe this is very possible, with exponential adoption of #Bitcoin for things like sovereign wealth funds, countries' legal tender and possibly even a world reserve asset. If those things (plus other possible variables) occur then this is how I see that possibly playing out. Here is a detailed explanation of what I personally believe is happening/going to happen here. Phase 1: There would be a breakdown of price like we have now (possibly) completed. This would be in order to accomplish a few things for global institutions. Some of those things are: 1) Get Bitcoin out of the hands of the "common man". It would not be possible to acquire the amount of $BTC needed with so many people holding. 2) Cause liquidity issues for exchanges, making it more difficult for just anyone to purchase. (We have already seen this. ex: Voyager, Celsius, etc.) 3)Allow large accounts to be created at more feasible prices, while also providing a good (high) enough entry price to sustain value for the overall asset in the eyes of the public. (To keep people from losing interest) There are obviously more reasons, but that's another post. Phase 2: A relief rally back up to the median range. This will obviously be a very volatile range, as 50% of investors sell (expecting a sharp move downward) and others (possibly the central financial institutions and/or sovereign wealth funds, who will not initially disclose their acquisitions) accumulating within this range. Because of this volatility, the likely range it will be in, the immediate supports/resistances, and the typical movement of the $BTC price; My current prediction is that $BTC will move upward, after flipping the top of the recent range into support, and break above the main down-trend of a massive flag that $BTC has been forming for over a year. Then after a retest of that upper trend, price will attempt to break the new-found resistance as traders long from that trend line. Believing that this is the last upward movement, traders will then short the resistance level, and other holders may sell out of fear (or just simply because they will be at a break-even price, since a lot of volume was transacted in that range). This range will then prove to be the median range, previously mentioned. $BTC will then make a lower low, again at the upper trend of the flag. This will seem like a "bear-signal" but will actually be a second confirmation of support off of the upper-resistance trend of the flag, which will "fake-out" traders, causing a short squeeze. Then more traders will continue to short as others switch to a long stance. All of these movements will print an inverse-head-and-shoulders, the break-out of which will give $BTC price the momentum needed to make it back up to the $60K-$70K range. Phase 3: After making it back to the "all-time-high" range, there will undoubtedly be heavy volatility, as some call for a triple-top and others "FOMO" into #Bitcoin. This volatility, bouncing between the upper regression curve and the inversion curve, will begin to print a "rising-wedge" pattern. The break-out of this wedge will be the ultimate inversion of regression into exponential growth. This is all pure speculation, however it is based on both, strong fundamental data as well as technical data. I personally believe in this theory, and it could also play out in other ways, but this scenario seems to make the most sense to me at the moment. **This is my own opinion based on data observed. This is not financial advice.**
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DoozerInvest