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Market News Report - 18 August 2024As it did last week, the yen was the biggest loser, losing against the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, and the British pound. Fundamentally, our outlooks from last week remain the same for all but one market. Let's cover each one in more detail now. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The latest Fed meeting was overall dovish. However, STIR (short-term interest rate) markets have suggested a 53% probability for a rate cut next month, down from 68% last week. The Fed isn't pressured to lower the interest rate due to recent positive retail sales and employment numbers. While this indicates steady growth, the fundamental bearish outlook remains. Peep at the FOMC minutes on Wednesday in preparation for the new federal funds rate in mid-September. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals, having just broken a recent key support. However, the break wasn’t strong enough, so 102.358 is still an area of interest for major support. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. Markets anticipate at least two rate cuts before the year ends despite there being less urgency on the Fed (as mentioned earlier). The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs data indicate a cooling of the US economy, another bearish sign. Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this overall sentiment. So, we cannot rule out a bullish fight for the dollar, but it is unlikely to happen, at least quickly. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest EU retail sales indicate that the consumer is taking some time to recover from the inflation shock. The European Central Bank (ECB) has stressed they are data-dependent. For fundamental analysts, it means that certain economic data like employment may boost the euro While also indicating that their interest rate meeting is 'wide open,' markets see an 87% chance of a cut next month (up from 78% last week). Interestingly, the chart tells a different story. The euro broke the latest major resistance, a possibility which we suggested in our last report. We must now zoom out to a daily chart to see the next target (1.11396) more clearly. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.06494. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. They are data-dependent, meaning data around inflation, growth, and wage improvement can lift the euro. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the start of this month. However, they remain data-dependent and have no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing in an additional two cuts for the remainder of 2024. A key theme for the central bank currently is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future misses here would likely weaken the GBP. As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. Still, the major resistance (1.31424) is some distance away, while the key support (1.26256) is also far away. With both outlooks for GBP and USD being bearish, this market is open to moving in any direction going forward. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound. However, STIR markets predict a rate hold next month. Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data (e.g., inflation, labour, economic growth). Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate is bullish for the yen. However, STIR markets expect a hold (100% probability, from 95% last week) at the next meeting. Watch out for the year-on-year inflation rate for JPY on Friday. USD/JPY continues to cool down or retrace after its multi-week massive decline. The major support level to watch is 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. In addition to the recent rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include lower US Treasury yields. The Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside last month. However, having moved quite a distance, a further retracement is imminent. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged on Tuesday to keep the fight against persistent inflation rate. Based on their language, a hike isn't out of the question this year. Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we look at economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. The recent rise in China's share prices, which correlates with the Aussie, has been positive for the currency. Still, there is doubt over the longevity of this run. As further proof of the short-term outlook, the Aussie market has risen noticeably. It's only about 130 pips away from the nearest major resistance at 0.67986, while the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per last week's meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, keep in mind that the Australian dollar is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries, being a pro-cyclical currency. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The New Zealand dollar is the only currency for which we have updated the short-term outlook (from neutral to bearish). This is mainly due to the central bank dropping the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25% last Monday. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. Diarise the upcoming new year-on-year retail sales number as the main high-impact news for the Kiwi. Like its closest relative (AUD), the Kiwi has retraced upwards after just scraping the recent support area at 0.58524. This still remains the focal point, while the major resistance is at 0.62220, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The central bank's dovish stance in its latest meeting (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The ongoing mortgage stress in Canada has forced the Bank of Canada (BoC) to be dovish, the first major bearish catalyst. With a rate cut last month, STIR markets have raised the probability to 99% (from 88% a week ago) of the same next month. Watch out for the upcoming data on the CAD inflation rate and retail sales this week. Thanks to dollar weakness, the CAD continues to strengthen mildly. It now looks to test a fairly recent major support target at 1.35896, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Moreover, STIR markets have priced in an additional cut sometime this year (aside from the one for next month). The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. However, encouraging oil prices, along with improvements in jobs, inflation, and GDP, may redeem the Canadian dollar. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a rate cut in September (an 82% chance) and December this year. Secondly, SNB expects a moderate improvement in inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and unemployment to rise slightly in the near term. However, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. Despite a notable retracement, USD/CHF is largely bearish. The key support area to consider is 0.84323. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained unchanged from the previous weeks, except for the New Zealand dollar. However, as expected, prepare for anything on the charts while aligning this activity with the fundamental summaries.
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
US 2-Year T-NoteHey Traders We have US 2-Year T-Note, all my weekly fundamentals are showing a nice drop from from supply zone bounced out and is looking strong to sell down, I will be waiting for a pullback to my sell limit marked off on chart. When I am lining up a set up I always use the daily TF to place a sell limit or buy limit from supply zone or demand zone. Please like comment and follow cheers This chart material is for education purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
2Short
by Costy13
4
75: Disney Stock Analysis and Outlook with Levels and ScenariosDisney has been experiencing mixed results in its recent earnings, reflecting both strong progress in streaming profitability and ongoing challenges in its theme park operations. The stock is now approaching a crucial zone between $80 to $90, which is a point of interest for potential reversal. Here's a breakdown of possible scenarios: Bullish Scenario : If Disney can hold and reverse in the $80-$90 zone, we could see a rebound driven by continued strength in streaming, especially if fundamentals improve further. The company’s recent milestone of achieving profitability in streaming earlier than expected is a positive indicator. If Disney can sustain and build on this, combined with strategic investments in new content and attractions, the stock may attract buyers and see a move back towards higher resistance levels. Bearish Scenario : However, if Disney fails to hold this key $80-$90 support zone, we could see the price move lower, with the next areas of interest at $65 and potentially $50. The theme parks’ underperformance and increasing operational costs are key risks. If these challenges persist without a significant recovery in fundamentals, particularly in visitor numbers or cost management, further downside pressure on the stock is likely. Technical Outlook: - Support Levels: $80-$90 (Key zone), $65, $50 - Resistance Levels: $111, $145 The upcoming price action in the $80-$90 zone will be critical in determining the next major move for $DIS. Keeping an eye on both the technical levels and fundamental developments will be crucial for making informed trading decisions.
NYSE:DIS
by SeventyFive-Invest
USDCHF 1H Chart: Rebound might halt as Downtrend Trendline near.Current Situation: The USDCHF is exhibiting a downtrend on the hourly chart. Recently, the pair has rebounded and is now approaching a critical area where the downtrend trendline intersects with the resistance level at 0.88800. This confluence of resistance factors could present a strong selling force, potentially halting the current rebound. Technical Analysis: 1. Downtrend Trendline 2. Resistance Level 0.88800 Fundamental Analysis: 1. Upcoming US FOMC Meeting: The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is imminent. While a rate cut is not widely expected, the tone of the speech—whether dovish or hawkish—could significantly impact the USDCHF pair. 2. Market Concerns: - Dovish Tone: If the FOMC's communication suggests a dovish stance, indicating potential rate cuts in the future, the USD could weaken & cause USDCHF to drop. - Hawkish Tone: Conversely, if the FOMC adopts a hawkish tone, indicating a preference for maintaining rates, the USD could strengthen. Conclusion: Traders should closely monitor the USDCHF as it approaches the critical resistance zone around 0.88800. The combination of the downtrend trendline and the horizontal resistance level presents a significant hurdle for the pair. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC meeting adds an element of uncertainty, with the potential for market-moving announcements. The prudent approach would be to look for signs of rejection at the resistance zone for potential short positions, while also being prepared for a breakout scenario should the FOMC deliver unexpected news.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
SWANENERGY BREAKOUTSwan Energy Limited (SEL) was originally incorporated in 1909 as Swan Mills Ltd. (SML), a manufacturer and marketer of cotton and polyester textile products in India. Over the years, it has diversified into real estate and is developing a floating storage and regasification unit-based liquid natural gas (LNG) import terminal at Jafrabad in Gujarat. FUNDAMENTALS Pros Strong sales growth of 249%. Significant profit growth of 584%. Good liquidity with a current ratio of 3.13. Manageable debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55. Diversified business into real estate and LNG. Long-standing market presence since 1909. Cons High P/E ratio of 76.2, suggesting overvaluation. Low dividend yield of 0.01%. Modest return ratios: ROCE 8.28% and ROE 7.03%. High price-to-book ratio of 3.65. Total debt of ₹3,440 crore. Exposure to industry volatility in the LNG sector. Overall financial strength : 73/100 TECHNICALS Prices are above 21, 50, 200 day EMA and 200 day MA. Stock corrected nearly 40%+ from the top. Weak Correction is suggesting that the supply is fading. RSI : 63; indicating buying momentum. MACD Crossover on Daily & Weekly time frame. Stock was trading in a range for 4 months and finally broke out and retested the level of 680–665. A teeny-tiny rounding bottom pattern formation. ACTION Above 750, it's a big base breakout, so one can capitalise on the momentum for a target of 795 (short-term positional). For a little longer horizon, can hold it for 892.65 and 987 levels (fundamentally good company) Aggressive traders can deploy small portion of capital above 750 if crosses with good volume spike. Safe ones can wait for a retest at 747–755 level. Now as per technical analysis, SL should be placed at around 645–650ish, but the RR isn't too fair for short term traders, so they can either place SL below the 21-day EMA. This is just my analysis and research. I shall not be responsible for anyone's loss. Happy Trading :)
NSE:SWANENERGYLong
by rohix
BDL - BREAKOUTBharat Dynamics is a Government of India Enterprise. It is engaged in the manufacturing of guided missiles and allied defence equipments. FUNDAMENTAL - Company is debt free - 1 year return : 200 % - 5 year return : 900 % - Company is generating wealth - Free cash flow 10Y : 2300 cr TECHNICAL - After 1 month of staying in a range and a few attempts of breakout, the stock is finally breaking out towards new highs. - RSI is 70 on daily which may be slightly overbought but if can be bought for a swing trade ( 3 - 5 trading days ) - Trading above 21 and 50 EMA - Bullish - MACD attempting to cross over. Overall for swing trade : BULLISH For Investment : Wait for pullback as RSI on monthly TF is 90 which is highly overbought. Place a SL If you missed your entry, wait for a pullback and enter at the retest zone or when crosses the high of the pullback. Happy Trading:)
NSE:BDLLong
by rohix
BORORENEW: A Correction on cards?- All the necessary pointers are on the chart. We are trying to keep things short and simple. if you like this concept, give us a boost/Comment to let us know. For those who need a writeup, Here's a quick one: - Until the resistance zone is broken, Going long may trap investors in a consolidation phase. - MACD is all up for a bearish crossover - Price trades below 200 EMA on Daily - Given the long wick rejection and a breakdown of the consolidation zone, If buyers fail to revive the price, we may see a correction phase until the support zone is tested. - The shot up EPS further weakens the fundamentals What you do think will happen? Have Insights or Questions? Let us know in the comments below.👇 While you do that, how about a boost for some motivation🚀 ⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
NSE:BORORENEW
by TheChartereds
4
75: Record Gold Prices What’s Driving the Surge and What’s Next?The price of gold has recently surged to a new all-time high, driven by the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Gold traders are predicting that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts this year, which is boosting the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Historically, when interest rates are low, gold prices rise due to the decreased opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability are further supporting the demand for gold. Central banks around the world, including China, have been significantly increasing their gold reserves, contributing to the rising prices. This accumulation of gold by central banks indicates confidence in gold's enduring value, which in turn encourages other investors to follow suit. As the Federal Reserve aims to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates, the weakening U.S. dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign investors, further pushing its price upwards. New high reached $2482.35 - what are the expectations? Bullish Scenario: At the moment, a new high has been reached with substantial buying pressure. The buying pressure is evident with the almost straight line up. Given this scenario, the risk of shorting is high. However, when new highs are reached, it's prudent to hedge long positions. You might consider shorting on a lower time frame, targeting $2420.61. The support level around $2420.61 is clearly identifiable. We could see a retest of this level, presenting an opportunity to initiate new long positions. There is also a possibility that prices will continue to rise. If buying pressure continues, we could see new highs beyond $2482.35, pushing the gold price even further. Bearish Scenario: If we lose the support level at $2420.61, it becomes apparent that we should look for short positions and new local lows. In this case, the decline could indicate a reversal in the current bullish trend. The break below this support could lead to a further drop in prices, potentially targeting lower support levels. Traders should watch for signs of weakening momentum and be prepared to shift strategies if the market sentiment turns bearish.
TVC:GOLD
by SeventyFive-Invest
1
NZD/USD Rises despite Soft NZ InflationThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates at 5.5% last week, but adopted a softer tone compared to the hawkish messaging of the previous meeting, raising chances of a rate cut this year. Today’s soft inflation data help towards such action, since CPI eased to 3.3% in Q2 and the lowest in three years. Despite these prospects, NZD/USD contains its fall and rebounds today, as there is still a high bar for an RBNZ pivot. At the same time, the Fed may have adopted a cautious stance, but Chair Powell appears to be laying the groundwork for a September cut, as the disinflation trend has resumed, with markets pricing in three moves this year. The monetary policy dynamics are a bit murky, but likely support further upside. Having defended crucial technical levels, NZD/USD can regain the EMA200 (black line) and push for new monthly highs (0.6148), but we are cautious around greater advance 0.6223. But market bets for three cuts by the Fed are very aggressive and would require the Fed to move in three consecutive meetings. This optimism could be disappointed, just as prospects of an RBNZ pivot are strengthening. Below the EMA200, immediate bias is on the downside and risk of a breach of the 50% Fibonacci and the daily Ichimoku Cloud persists. This would make NZD/USD vulnerable t0 0.5952, but sustained weakness is not easy based on the monetary policy dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. S tratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
by FXCM
Will the Disinflation Trend Reinforce DXY Downward Momentum?Macro theme: - The highlight of the past week was inflation data. US Jun headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY (vs. 3.1% expected, 3.3% previous), and core CPI was 3.3% YoY (vs. 3.4% expected and previous). - The core service component has been declining, and rental prices may continue to fall due to delayed contract renewals. With this inflation trend, markets expect the Fed to make its first rate cut in Sep and another this year. - The dollar is likely to weaken, depending on the pace of monetary easing by other countries. If all major economies cut rates simultaneously, currency pairs may remain stable. Technical: - From a technical perspective, DXY broke its ascending channel and closed below both EMAs, shifting to bearish momentum. The index is right above its key support at 104.00. - If DXY extends its decline below 104.00, it may aim for a nearby support area around 102.75-103.00. - On the contrary, if 104.00 can hold the index above for a while, DXY may correct up to 104.90 before resuming its downward movement.
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
2
Market News Report - 14 July 2024After many months of being beaten, the Japanese yen was the surprising dominant force in forex this past week. The British pound also enjoyed notable gains against other markets despite maintaining a bearish fundamental outlook. Here's a recap of how the major markets performed on the charts and fundamentally to prepare yourself for the next week. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Fed is slowly winning the fight against inflation, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data coming at a lower-than-expected rate of 3%) Despite this, the Fed has suggested at least one rate cut this year. Short-term interest rate (STIR) markets predict an 11% chance of this happening at the end of this month. The news highlight to consider this week includes new Retail Sales data. The 'Dixie' has made a complete u-turn in the past few weeks, aligning with recent fundamental changes. It's now very close to testing the major support level at 103.993, while the major resistance is far away at 106.490. So, things look bearish here. Long-term outlook: bearish. With markets anticipating at least two rate cuts by the Fed for the remainder of the year, the bearish bias is justified. The latest CPI and NFP data also indicate a cooling of the US economy. Only geopolitical risks and bond market selling can affect this overall sentiment. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. This week, STIR markets have priced in a hawkish move in the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision. On the other hand, the ECB's President, Christine Lagarde, recently hinted at a 'strong likelihood' of 'dialling back.' While the euro has benefitted from USD weakness, it may still dip depending on the US inflation story. As mentioned in our last report, the euro is getting closer to reaching the major resistance at 1.09160. (While the fundamentals point to the bearish side), dollar weakness is taking precedence for the euro, moving it far away from the major support level at 1.06494. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The euro may be a bullish candidate over time thanks to USD weakness, improving inflation, and the recent French elections. Still, the ECB is the main bearish driver unless they hold the interest rate at its current level for now. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) continues to show dovish tendencies. STIR markets now predict a 56% chance of a BoE rate cut next month. Anticipate several high-impact news events for the British pound this week: inflation rate, CPI, and Retail Sales. Any weakness in either will most likely send GBP lower. Like its closest rival, the euro, the British pound is quite bullish. This currency went one extra by breaking the recent major resistance with ease. The next target (last reached a year ago) is some distance at 1.31424. Meanwhile, the new support area is 1.26156, which the pound won't be near to anytime soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound. So, the British pound is likely to find sellers as expectations for the potential rate cut in August grow. Still, the BoE has clarified that the monetary policy should be restrictive indefinitely until inflation is properly fixed. So, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent decision to keep the interest rate unchanged is mildly bullish for the yen. Governor Ueda also stated, "depending on economic, price, and financial data and information available at the time, there is a chance we could raise interest rates at the July meeting." Moreover, STIR markets see a 60% chance of a rate hike in the meeting at the end of July. Unfortunately, JPY bulls should know that the BoJ does things rather slowly. Nonetheless, keep an eye on Friday's year-on-year inflation rate for JPY. After weeks of making high after high (including reaching an all-time high), USD/JPY dropped drastically, which was a long-overdue move. Still, the bulls haven't let up, with the key support level quite far at 154.546. On the other hand, the key resistance is at 161.950. Long-term outlook: weak bullish In addition to the expected rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include a potential lowering in US Treasury yields. Given the yen's recent overdue recovery on the charts, expect Japan's Ministry of Finance to intervene in the near future to save the currency. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. Due to persisting inflation highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the central bank has enough reasons to keep or hike the interest rate next month. The CPI print at the end of July is another consideration, with expectations of a positive outcome. Finally, the Australian dollar shares an interesting correlation with China. Data indicating growth in this region (e.g., stimulus, new infrastructure projects, solid economic data) should lift the Aussie. The Aussie will look to reach as close to the major resistance of 0.68711 as possible, another confirmation of the bullish outlook. Meanwhile, the major support remains far below at 0.65761, an area it is unlikely to visit anytime soon. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The hot CPI for Q1 and April has pressured the RBA to increase rates, which they recognised in their meeting last month. Furthermore, STIR markets anticipate a 33% chance of a hike. Conversely, the Australian dollar is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries because it is a pro-cyclical currency. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: neutral. As predicted by STIR markets, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate consistent at 5.5% early last week. In their latest meeting, "The Committee agreed that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive. The extent of this restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures". In simple terms, the central bank is winning against inflation and is, thus, unlikely to raise rates. Watch out for the new CPI print on Tuesday, where a high number would be bullish for the New Zealand dollar. Unlike its closest relative (AUD), the Kiwi traded mildly in the past week, moving slightly away from the 0.62220 key resistance. Given the key support being considerably lower at 0.58746, this market remains well on the upside. Long-term outlook: neutral. The central bank's recent dovish tilt amid improving inflation puts the Kiwi in a neutral bracket. Furthermore, STIR markets anticipate a 50/50 chance of a rate cut next month. On the flip side, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets indicate a 50/50 chance for the Bank of Canada to cut rates on 24 July 2024. The Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC), Macklem, has also suggested this would happen if inflation became stickier. Realistically, the BoC will drop rates slowly now or aggressively later. Strangely, however, recent CPI numbers were all positive for the Canadian dollar. Still, based on the recent weak labour data, we saw a slowing jobs market. Diarise the new year-on-year inflation rate this week for CAD. USD/CAD remains in full-on range mode, as it has done over the past few weeks. The major support at 1.35896 has been strong despite being only breached. On the other hand, the key resistance is at 1.37919. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Interestingly, the BoC faces mortgage stress, which is a major factor in this interest rate policy. We should also consider other bearish catalysts associated with CAD, like general fundamental data and its status as a risk-sensitive currency. However, encouraging oil prices may redeem the Canadian dollar. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. With a 76% chance of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cutting the interest rate recently, STIR markets were accurate. Secondly, SNB expects a moderate improvement in inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and unemployment to rise slightly in the near term. However, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. Following a considerable rise from the key support at 0.88268, USD/CHF has retraced quite a bit. Meanwhile, the key resistance lies at 0.91582. This market can go either way with such a wide gap between the two points. However, it's best to seek other pairs where CHF has a weaker outlook than its quote or base currency. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The Japanese yen's chart is slowly aligning with its fundamentals. It will also be intriguing to see how the British pound performs this week. As always, expect the unexpected with these and other forex pairs - so long as you are prepared with what's coming technically and fundamentally.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis: Why Not Both?Hey there, fellow traders and market mavens! Ever found yourself staring confused at the screen and not making sense of things that happen in trading? So you decided to wander off deep into technical analysis shutting out its other half — fundamental analysis? Or vice versa — you digested every economic report that big media outlets churned out and yet failed to factor in some support and resistance levels? Fear not, for we've got the lowdown on why you don't have to pick sides and go with either the Fibonacci sequence or the latest jobs data . In fact, we're here to tell you why embracing both might just be your secret to trading success. So, grab your charts and financial reports and let's dive into the world where candlesticks meet earnings reports! Technical Analysis: The Lost Art of Tape Reading Technical analysis is like the cool, intuitive friend who always seems to know what's going to happen next. It's all about reading the market's mood through price charts, patterns and indicators. Here's why tech analysis should be in your skill set: Trend Spotting : Ever wished you could predict the next big trend? With moving averages, trend lines and momentum indicators like the MACD, you can ride the waves like a pro surfer and let the market carry your trades into a sea of profits. Timing is Everything : Candlestick patterns and support/resistance levels are your besties when it comes to perfect timing. The more you study them, the more you elevate your chances of entering and exiting trades with ninja-like precision. Market Sentiment : Tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Bollinger Bands give you the scoop on whether the market's feeling overbought, oversold or just right. Learn these if you want to increase the probability of correctly gauging the market’s mood. But hold up, before you get lost in the charts, let's not forget about the fundamentals. Fundamental Analysis: Making Sense of Things If technical analysis is your go-to for instant market vibes, fundamental analysis is the place to figure out why things happened in the first place. Here’s why fundamentals are a big deal and can help you to a) learn what moves markets and b) become fluent in marketspeak and own every trading conversation: Long-Term Vision : While technical analysis can sometimes feel like guesswork, fundamental analysis is spitting facts. Earnings reports, P/E ratios and economic indicators help you see the bigger picture and educate you into a better, more knowledgeable trader. Value Hunting : Ever heard of value investing legends like Warren Buffett? They thrive on finding undervalued gems through rigorous fundamental analysis. And, some say, this approach to investing is not reserved for companies only. It works for crypto, too. Economic Health Check : Understanding GDP growth, interest rates and inflation can feel like having a crystal ball for market trends. And, one big plus is that you’ll become a lot more interesting when you explain things like monetary policy or forward-looking guidance to your uncle at the Thanksgiving table. The Power Couple: Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis Now, here’s the kicker: Why choose one when you can have both? Imagine the synergy when you combine the swift foresightedness of technical analysis with the solid foundation of fundamental analysis. Here’s how to make this dynamic duo work for you: Double-Check Your Entries and Exits : Use technical analysis for pinpointing your entry and exit points but back it up with fundamental analysis to build a convincing narrative of the asset’s long-term potential. Confirm the Trend : Spot a promising trend with technical indicators? Validate it with strong fundamentals to make sure it’s not just a flash in the pan. Risk Management : Technical analysis can help set your stop-loss levels, while fundamental analysis keeps you informed about any potential game-changers in the market. Diversification : Fundamental analysis might show you the hottest sectors right now, while technical analysis can help you call tops and bottoms if an indicator you trust is showing oversold or overbought levels. Wrapping Up So, there you have it, folks! Technical analysis and fundamental analysis don’t have to be opposite camps. Think of them as your dynamic duo, Batman and Robin, peanut butter and jelly — better together. By blending the best of both worlds, you’ll increase your chances of success in trading and do yourself a favor — you’ll get to know a lot and become more interesting! Ready to take your trading game to the next level? Start combining technical and fundamental analysis and watch as your trading strategies transform into a market-crushing masterpiece. Happy trading and may your profits be ever in your favor!
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
14
Buy ITC cmp 425.50, target minimum 480, SL-399Fundamentally and technically sound, ITC is a perfect buy looking at overall market conditions which is currently on high valuations. At current price, ITC provides a value comfort and technically this stock has done a price and time correction at the same time. Currently we see that chart is forming Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern on a daily time frame which is extremely bullish pattern and indicates the reversal of downfall and bottom formation. Aggressively buy this stock at 425-430 levels and wait patiently for a minimum target of 480, stop loss at 399.
NSE:ITCLong
by PrashantDahale
1
Copper Constructive but Struggles for BreakthroughFollowing a sharp pullback from May’s record peak, Copper made a strong start to the third quarter, returning above the EMA200 (black line) and regaining the initiative. It tries to take out the 38.2% Fibonacci of that decline that will allow it to push towards 5.000-5.041 handle and eventually challenge the all-time highs (5.200). The fundamentals remain favorable, as key miners have lowered their activity, while the AI boom and the clean energy transition drive demand for the non-ferrous metal. On the other hand, there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand outlook, like China’s bympy recovery and distressed property sector, along with a slowdown in EV adoption and other factors. Furthermore, Copper struggles to break above the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and failure would create scope for lower lows (4.323) but the downside appears well protected and sustained weakness past it looks hard, technically and fundamentally. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:COPPERLong
by FXCM
1
75: BYD to Open Major Electric Vehicle Factory in TurkeyExciting times for BYD as the company announces a significant $1 billion investment to establish a major electric vehicle factory in Turkey. This strategic move is set to help BYD circumvent the recent EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars, creating 5,000 jobs and enhancing their production capabilities to 150,000 vehicles annually. This development not only strengthens BYD's foothold in the European market but also showcases their adaptability and long-term growth strategy. The chart is currently indicating an uptrend, which began after the price successfully reclaimed the $54.80 level. This reclamation has set a strong foundation for the current upward momentum. The price has also sustained above the high of $58.01, further solidifying this bullish trend. Holding above this level is crucial for the next phase of the uptrend. The immediate target for BYD’s stock is the $64.91 price level. Reaching this level will confirm the strength of the current trend and open up possibilities for further gains. Once the stock achieves the $64.91 mark, we can set our sights on the next significant target at $76.75. Breaking through this level could lead to even higher valuations, reflecting continued investor confidence and market strength. On the flip side, if the stock loses its grip on the $58.01 level, it could signal a reversal, with the next major support found around $43.48. Monitoring these levels is essential for adjusting trading strategies accordingly.
OTC:BYDDY
by SeventyFive-Invest
USDJPY Pulls Back as US Labor Market CoolsAfter years of ultra-loose monetary setting that has been detrimental for the Yen, the Bank of Japan has started the normalization process, but does so slowly and remains accommodative. Its US counterpart meanwhile looks to pivot from its aggressive tightening, but persistent inflation creates apprehension. As a result, USD/JPY is having another banner year with 14% gains in the first half. The rally continues in the third quarter, as the pair reached 38-year highs last week, bringing 165.00 in the spotlight. On the other hand, the rally raises risk for new FX intervention by Japanese authorities, which have already spent nearly ¥10 trillion this year to support the ailing Yen. The weak currency increases pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy, supported by elevated inflation and strong wages. Policymakers have signaled they will reduce the amount of bond buying and at least one more hike is reasonable this year, following the historic exit from the negative rates regime in March. Fed officials are cautious around removing monetary restraint, due to stubborn inflation, strong economy and tight labor market. However, the disinflation process has resumed according to recent data, while Friday’s report showed that employment conditions are easing, boosting market bets for two rate cuts this year. The shift in monetary policy dynamics is weighing on the pair after the 38-year peak and creates scope for a deeper pullback that would test the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would pause the bullish momentum, but strong catalyst would be needed for that and the downside appears well-protected. There are key events coming up this week that can shape the trajectory of the pair, namely Fed Chair Powell’s two-day Congress testimony and the US CPI inflation update. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
by FXCM
Advanced Entry setup on Advanced Enzyme Ltd.Advanced Entry setup for Advanced Enzyme? ABOUT Advanced Enzyme Technologies Limited is engaged in the business of manufacturing and sales of enzymes. The Co. is the 1st Indian enzyme company with 2nd highest market share in India. It is the 2nd listed integrated enzyme player globally. FUNDAMENTAL Since we are looking at the weekly chart, it becomes very important to check the fundamentals. • Company is almost debt free. • Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 20.9% • OPM % increasing you • Cash Flow positive • FII and DII increasing shareholding. TECHNICAL • On a weekly TF, we can see a cup and handle pattern and the formation is completed. • Increasing volumes are increasing the chances of a breakout • RSI is at 60, indicating a potential buying strength and is not overbought. • Trading above 50, 100 and 200 EMA indicating bullishness. ENTRY, EXIT, TARGET, STOPLOSS - If you are a risky trader you can buy some qty at the CMP or above previous day high and add more on breakout. - If you are a risk averse trader then buy some at breakout and more at retest. - The safe buying zone is above 424 and little aggresive players can add above 410. - Since the duration of holding is around 6 - 9 months, don't place SL, but if you want to then SL should at 350. - Target 1 is 480, Target 2 is 570 Happy Trading :)
NSE:ADVENZYMESLong
by rohix