75: Analyzing ASML Sales Decline Potential Bearish MomentumIn light of the recent downturn in ASML sales, it's prudent to assess potential implications for the stock's trajectory. ASML faces lower than expected orders in Q1 amid industry downturn. CEO Peter Wennink remains optimistic about sector recovery in 2024. Orders dip to €3.6 billion, revenue at €5.3 billion. Our initial target lies at 826.1, where we anticipate a consolidation phase. However, if selling pressure persists, we could foresee a drop to 688.6. Monitoring validation of short positions is crucial. Conversely, stabilization around 826.1 could signify a potential reversal and pave the way for renewed upward momentum. Keeping a close eye on market dynamics and key support levels will be paramount in navigating ASML's current trajectory.
Fundamentalanalsysis
AUDUSD Exposed to Pivotal Support in the RBA AftermathThe Reserve Bank of Australia raised its 2024 inflation forecast on Tuesday and appeared more concerned around achieving its 2-3% target. Despite considering the case for a hike, policymakers decided to hold rates at 4.35% for fourth straight meeting.
The Aussie reacted lower, as markets likely expected a more hawkish language from the RBA, given the upgraded CPI projections. At the same time, inflation persistence in the US has turned the Fed cautious towards lowering rates, pedaling the higher-for-longer narrative. Markets have pushed back the timing of such moves to beyond summer and price in just 25-50 bps worth of cuts this year.
AUDUSD is now exposed to the critical confluence of supports, provided by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the April low/May high advance. Daily closes below it would shift immediate bias to the downside and open the door to further losses towards 0.6464.
However, the policy differential is unlikely to fuel sustained weakness and if anything, it could become supportive. The Fed is still projected to cut this year, whereas markets have priced out such moves by the RBA for around a year more and Governor Bullock did not rule out hikes. Above the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci, bulls are in control with the ability to set higher highs.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Fundamental Picks - Stock PE < 20 (NIFTY 50)📊 Script: BPCL
📊 Sector: Refineries
📊 Industry: Refineries
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 585
🎯 PE 🏆 - 4.38
📊 Script: ONGC
📊 Sector: Crude Oil & Natural Gas
📊 Industry: Oil Drilling / Allied Services
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 275
🎯 PE 🏆 - 8.24
📊 Script: COALINDIA
📊 Sector: Mining & Mineral products
📊 Industry: Mining / Minerals / Metals
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 435
🎯 PE 🏆 - 9.14
📊 Script: SBIN
📊 Sector: Banks
📊 Industry: Banks - Public Sector
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 750
🎯 PE 🏆 - 10.49
📊 Script: INDUSINDBK
📊 Sector: Banks
📊 Industry: Banks - Private Sector
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 1482
🎯 PE 🏆 - 13.33
📊 Script: HINDALCO
📊 Sector: Non Ferrous Metals
📊 Industry: Aluminum and Aluminum Products
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 614
🎯 PE 🏆 - 14.69
📊 Script: TATAMOTORS
📊 Sector: Automobile
📊 Industry: Automobiles - LCVs / HCVs
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 963
🎯 PE 🏆 - 16.51
📊 Script: POWERGRID
📊 Sector: Power Generation & Distribution
📊 Industry: Power Generation And Supply
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 281
🎯 PE 🏆 - 16.62
📊 Script: HDFCBANK
📊 Sector: Banks
📊 Industry: Banks - Private Sector
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 1531
🎯 PE 🏆 - 17.12
📊 Script: NTPC
📊 Sector: Power Generation & Distribution
📊 Industry: Power Generation And Supply
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 350
🎯 PE 🏆 - 17.38
📊 Script: ICICIBANK
📊 Sector: Banks
📊 Industry: Banks - Private Sector
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 1067
🎯 PE 🏆 - 17.62
📊 Script: JSWSTEEL
📊 Sector: Steel
📊 Industry: Steel - Large
⏱️ C.M.P 📑- 864
🎯 PE 🏆 - 18.79
Formula to calculate PE = MVP/EPS
MVP - Market Value Per Share (Stock Price)
EPS - Earning Per Share
Industry(NIFTY50) PE - 22.7
Always Compare Stock PE with Industry PE for Better Understanding.
LOWER THE PE MORE ATTRACTIVE THE COMPANY.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
XRP | ST Long H1 | Chance to RallyPair: XRPUSDT
Timeframe: H1
Direction: Long
Technical Confluences for Trade:
- Stochastic momentum is neutral
- Price action supported by 100MA
- Price bounced off 61.8% Fib levels
Fundamental Confluences for Trade:
- XRP plans to launch US-denominated stablecoin to bridge the gap between Crypto & Fiat will help generate more uses & liquidity for the XRP Ledger blockchain
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 0.6030 - 0.6100
SL @ 0.5856
TP 1 @ 0.6225 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP 2 @ 0.6405
Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 1.72 (Depending on Entry Level)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and am not responsible for any losses derived from it.
The USD in a ConundrumThe USD at the start of the year was trading near the 100 lvl but has managed to push above the 106 lvl in a little over a few months. If price is able to break out of the 107 lvl, there isn't to many resistances for the USD to break (the 108 could be one) and price might be able to hit the 114 lvl made in 2022. With the CPI data coming in a little higher then expected and traders/investors/analysts speculating that the FED will likely hold off on reducing rates (currently, FED Rate Monitoring tool is showing a 71.7% chance of FED holding rates), the elections coming up, conflicts in the Middle East/Europe/Asia, continued government spending (which keeps increasing), not enough government revenue which leads to more borrowing, this puts the FED between a rock and a hard place. Will the FED continue to hold rates and potentially push the economy to a recession (and a real one not one that did happen but supposedly didn't happen, back in 2022 Q1/Q2) or continue on with lowering rates, keep the economy going and potentially cause inflation to spike? Either way it is No Bueno.
What is interesting is how commodities such as Gold/Silver/Oil are pushing up higher while the USD pushes up higher. These products are typical non correlated to each other, yet, currently they are. The USD shot up to 106. Silver from the start of the year pushed up from near 22 to now coming close to hitting 30 before pulling back to below 28. Gold pushed lower to below 2,000 in the beginning of February and pushed above 2,440 before pulling back to 2,360. Oil began near 70 and is trading above 85. So, when things return to the mean (non correlated), either the USD will take a hit or commodities will. The main things is how much of a hit will happen. Risk assets such as the stock market are finally taking a hit as the market just kept climbing and climbing, with the DJ Futures Market pushing past 40k and finally being cracked in the beginning of April.
I am thinking that the USD might be able to hit the 108 lvl as other Central Banks are holding onto rates (just recently the ECB stuck to holding rates). If the FED holds onto current rates and other banks decide to reduce rates, the USD will skyrocket higher. If other banks decide to keep holding rates while the FED does, it will likely be whose economy can withstand the higher rates the longest.
Protect yourselves with either reducing position sizing to withstand a large move, hedge, or do not be in a trade and see if price moves how you are speculating it. I have no position on the USD or in Forex itself (I'm tied up in other trades), but I am watching this because it is part of the plan I have when my other positions in other trades are completed.
Y'all have some great trading out there.
XAUUSD/Gold | Weekly | OutlookTechnical Overview
Taking a detailed outlook at Gold/XAUUSD on a long/medium term overview using our monthly & weekly charts respectively it would seem as though Gold is currently forming a AB = CD formation and if that is the case we can expect Gold to continue to push further up well into our $2500 Psychological level/area where we can expect a Possible correction to the downside from there.
Fundamental Overview
After looking at it from a technical point of view we can now look at the contributing factors to this aggressive bullish momentum, we know that Gold is considered as a safe haven for investors and given all the major events happening around the world we know that quite a number of countries including the US have their national elections this year which tend to cause instability and increased volatility in the markets, also factored with other factors like high interest rates, inflation, etc. All these factors then lead investors to look for ways to “safely” protect their capital as they ride out the potential/expected turbulence until things stabilise once again.
EURUSD - APRIL 10, 2024 - SHORTHere is my bias for EURUSD, we have an equal low and I am anticipating for price to move and clear liquidity above the Asian high. In my POI is an FVG from the breaker block that failed to hold to push price higher and creating a structure shift and also an FVG that caused the structure shift.
EURUSD, APRIL 8, 2024 - LONGThis is a 15min internal structure where liquidity has to be taken to fulfill the 4hour pullback. Price has just taken out inducement at 1.08233 and this has created a liquidity below the 1.08403 zone where I am looking to sell for a short term, clearing liquidity and expecting price to to drop to the 1.08147 or 1.08054 zone and create a confirmation entry. Whichever holds out of these two zones, my major target will be the 4hour 1.08673 zone where I will also be looking for a confirmation entry to go short in clearing the 15min external liquidity.
Powering the Future: Novonix (NVX) Charges Ahead ASX:NVX Novonix Limited, a company specializing in advanced battery materials and technology, has recently received a significant boost with its strategic partnership & off-take agreement with Panasonic Energy.
The supply deal with Panasonic signals a strong vote of confidence in Novonix's synthetic graphite technology, which boasts superior performance characteristics compared to traditional graphite materials. With Panasonic being a prominent supplier to major EV manufacturers like Tesla & Mazda, this partnership opens up significant growth opportunities for Novonix within the rapidly expanding EV market and solidifies Novonix's position as a crucial player in the supply chain for synthetic graphite batteries, particularly for electric vehicles (EVs).
Adding to the excitement, Jeff Dahn, a celebrity in the battery field, serves as the Chief Scientific Advisor at Novonix. Dahn's decision to transition from his leadership role at Tesla’s Advanced Battery Research group to advise for Novonix speaks volumes about the company's innovative vision. Notably, Professor Dahn and his research team maintain collaborations with Tesla, further bolstering Novonix's industry credibility and strategic vision.
Novonix's proprietary battery testing equipment and services have garnered widespread acclaim within the industry. Their cutting-edge technology enables more accurate and efficient testing of lithium-ion batteries, addressing a critical need for battery manufacturers striving to enhance performance and reliability.
In addition to its technological prowess, Novonix boasts a robust intellectual property portfolio, including patents and proprietary processes, providing a solid foundation for long-term growth and competitive advantage in the burgeoning battery market.
The global push towards decarbonization and electrification further amplifies Novonix's bullish outlook. As governments worldwide enact stricter regulations on emissions and incentivize the adoption of electric vehicles, the demand for advanced battery materials is poised to skyrocket. Novonix stands at the forefront of this revolution, positioned to capitalize on the surging demand for high-performance batteries.
Novonix's alignment with industry stalwarts like Panasonic, coupled with Jeff Dahn's Tesla connection and its pioneering technology, positions the company for sustained growth and leadership in the dynamic battery market. As the demand for high-performance batteries continues to soar, Novonix stands poised to capitalize on this trend, delivering value to investors and stakeholders alike.
The Technicals: In analyzing the technical aspects, it's noteworthy that ASX:NVX (ASX) recently rebounded from a significant resistance level at $0.530, indicating strong buying interest. I believe ASX:NVX is at a discounted price and has great upside potential. #Bullish
EURUSD - SHORT - APRIL 04, 2024In this analysis of the EURUSD on the 1-hour timeframe, I'm observing how the price behaves around the 1.08500 supply zone. My intention is to confirm a potential short-term selling opportunity as a countertrend move towards the next demand zone at 1.07838. Once this short-term move plays out, I'll be looking for confirmation on a possible long position from that demand zone. It's important to note that the market operates in a fractal nature, meaning that we can only anticipate the next moves as they unfold. Therefore, we'll need to monitor the situation closely to see how it develops.
XRPUSD (Ripple) sitting on a major down trend lineYou probably know that so far we've experienced
3 major bullish crypto cycles. What you might not
know is that each of those bull runs has 5 phases.
Phase 1: Bitcoin starts increasing
Phase 2: Bitcoin keeps on increasing and Ethereum
starts rallying as well (This is where we're likely right now)
Phase 3: Both Bitcoin and Ethereum keep increasing.
Ethereum might outperform Bitcoin in some periods.
Other major cryptocurrencies like Ripple start their rallying
period as well
Even though the current crypto bull run has started earlier
then expected, so far it's structure is very similar to the
previous rallies. If we are to judge by them, this means
that we are likely in phase 2 and soon may go into phase 3.
If that is the case, very soon, Ripple can start it's ascend
and the technical analysis confirms such an opportunity.
Monitor this chart for a breakout
Following the Plan, The Winner EURUSDIn the beginning of the year, before I start trading, I conduct my review and research and analysis (R/A) on what I am going to trade. For the EURUSD, this is what I put down on December 31, 2022, 12:33est
EUR: the ECB is looking to raise rates to fight off double digit inflation. They might have to raise rates quicker than they are thinking to fight inflation. There is also the Russia/Ukraine issue that is going on, with the EU looking to cap Russian Oil. Price is pushing higher, which I think will be able to hit 1.10 at least. Eventually I think price will push lower as the economy stagnates and a possibly recession is induced. I am thinking of getting in this pair, but I am going to wait until price pushes to 1.10 and then decide from there. If the FED diverges with the ECB, the same might happen like in 2015, where price starts pushing higher as the FED starts to wind down rate hikes and possibly reduce rates, which the ECB pushes rates higher. I am thinking that possibly at the end of the year price might be around 1.15, but that is dependent on what happens with the EU economy.
On March 04, 2023, 09:34est, this is what I had jotted down:
EUR: the 1.10 lvl and the 1.05 lvls are prices that are catching my eye. If price is able to crack the 1.10 and hold above it, price is likely to continue higher. Price might be able to do this if the ECB remains hawkish and the FED starts becoming more reserved in their rate hikes. The ECB is going to raise rates by 0.50% this upcoming rate decision and three other times. If the ECB becomes increasingly hawkish, price will be able to gain a lot of momentum higher. If the 1.10 lvl is broken, price might be able to hit 1.12, but I am not too sure about 1.15. The reason being is the Euro Area economy is hanging on. Almost everything is declining, inflation is high, and the ECB has to know it is in a tough spot.
On March 26, 2023, 11:16est:
EUR: the ECB is hawkish and is will to raise rates further. But with the banking issues and their economy tethering on the brink of a great recession like style as the US, I am not sure if they are going to eventually pull bank. If the data in the US mints higher, then it will be interesting to see where price on there goes. Traders and investors always want to move too safe havens, so if the data does mint higher, it is likely that price will push lower. I am thinking that the EUR might be able to hit the 1.10 lvl, which will likely become a strong resistance.
I stopped trading for a while due to training and other things that came up. But in July 28, 2023, 23:42, I conducted a rollup and on the EUR/USD I typed up:
EUR: getting into a short position and holding might be the best bet. The Euro Zone compared to the US economy, is one sided, with the US economy winning considerably. GDP is at 0% (QoQ), unemployment at 6.5%, wages is growing though, inflation at 5.5%, balance sheet is shrinking which means banks and businesses and so on are losing capital and having to rein things in, interest rate is at 4.25%, industrial and manufacturing is negative and condensing, retail sales is showing that people are not spending, and housing is pushing lower. The Euro Zone economy has stagnated and seems to be going through what the US went through in the 70’s. So this might come to fruition and price might be able to hit the support at 1.06 and possibly parity. If there is a goal to dethrone the USD, it might take awhile if the other currencies aren’t able to prop themselves up.
So.......... what I see is that the EURUSD is moving how I've been speculating and following through with what I've been thinking. With the FED thinking about pausing on rates but keeping interest rates at current lvls for a while and the ECB looking to pause on rates hikes while inflation is still high, this could be enough of a mixture to push the EURUSD lower. The 1.10 lvl is causing a lot of issues for price to push lower, but I think overall, price may have enough momentum to push to the 1.08. I have a short position on this pair to see if I am correct or not. If price does move against me and does push higher, I'll get into a hedge and see about reducing risk.
Do you own due diligence. This is the way I trade and my own R/A for education purposes. Trading has a lot of risk, so protect yourselves and trade your own way. Have some great trading out there.
USDJPY I BOJ will possibly end negative interest ratesWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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NATIONALUM BIG BREAKOUT & RETESTFundamental Analysis
1. Amazing Book Value
2. Nearly Zero Debt
3. Attractive Dividend Yield 3.30%(Extra Return on Holding for just 1 Quarter)
4. ROE & ROCE is Fascinating above 10-15%
5. Underperformed Like other PSUs and blasted in 2022-23, This Year Metal Sector Will Blast and Nationalum Will be Outperformer of Market
6. Sector Leader with Hindalco
7. Consistent Increasing sales and profit both QoQ and YoY also.
8. Increasing CWIP Will also create more revenue and profit.
9. More than 85-90% of holding is in Ultra strong DIIs FIIs & HNIs(Low Public(Weak) Holdings).
Technical Analysis of NATIONALUM
1. Accumulation phase is over (Big blast Breakout after 15-16 Years Like PFC, REC, TWL,MRPL, Chennpetro)
2. Successful Breakout on Daily, Weekly & Monthly TF
3.Breakout with Huge Volume happening
4. Volume Increased during Accumulation Phase from
5. Retest of Breakout Level Completed and Rejection shown on Daily TF & Buy Signal on H1 TF
Buy @ 130-135 SL - 120 Target- 250
Holding Time 3-6-9 Months
Possible Projected Loss- 10%
Probable Projected Target - More than 80%
What is GOLD next target?📣 Hello Mates!
We can see that our gold buy target has been completed, and now gold is overbought.
Our prediction is that gold will sell from the $2180.00 or $2194.00 area. After that, our sell targets are $2162.00 and $2126.00
🔑 Remember, money management is crucial. Before employing our analysis, please conduct your own research and refrain from investing more than 2% of your portfolio.
📈 Our Resistance Levels are spotted at:
- 2161
- 2120
📉 And our Support Levels are set at:
- 2195
- 2200
Stay tuned for further updates and trade smartly! 📊
US30 BEARISH IDEA This is just another sell idea ( yellow arrow ) following our entry ( previous post ) which is risk free and running at around 175 pips !!
Technical remains a strong bearish view --> expecting a break of structure very soon
Main target is the ( 4H ) demand zone !
Trade only during N-Y session and only if price is in the rectangle
KEEP FOLLOWING IF YOU WOULD LIKE MORE PRECISION TRADES ( 1 : 7 ) - ( 1 : 10 ) !!
GBPJPY: Key Resistance in Focus This Week - Breakout Potential?GBPJPY faces a critical juncture this week, with a formidable monthly resistance level at 193.659 coming into view. If the pair can surmount this hurdle, it could unlock a significant upside move towards 214.005, with limited resistance in the way.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY has been in a strong uptrend since the beginning of the year, gaining over 17%.
The pair is now approaching a key monthly resistance level at 193.659.
A break above this level could signal further bullish momentum, with a potential target of 214.005.
There is limited resistance between 193.659 and 214.005, suggesting that the pair could make a significant move if it breaks above the resistance level.
Fundamental Factors:
The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates at its next meeting in March.
This could support the pound sterling against the Japanese yen.
The Japanese economy is facing headwinds from rising inflation and a weak yen.
This could weigh on the Japanese yen and support GBPJPY.
Conclusion:
GBPJPY is poised for a significant move this week. A break above the key resistance level at 193.659 could signal further bullish momentum, with a potential target of 214.005. Traders should closely monitor GBPJPY's price action around the 193.659 level this week. A breakout above this resistance could indicate further bullish momentum, while a rejection could indicate a potential pullback.
Additional Information:
The pair has already broken the monthly pivot and pulled back to it, which could be a bullish signal.
The RSI indicator is also showing bullish momentum, with a reading of 65.
The MACD indicator is also bullish, with a crossover above the signal line.
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
GOLD, LongGold after hitting the High of $2087.98 is anticipated to retest the next significant level support 2065 with an attempt to pick liquidity and further driving up to test the all-time high of $2145 is on the card this week.
DXY at the close of last week represent a probability of the dollar index declining to the next key level of 102.5 which could give GOLD the upper hand to drive up.
The week's USD fundamentals such as the Jolts Job Opening, Powell's testimony and NFP are very important, and the outcomes will significantly determine the price of GOLD. Thus it is worth keeping an eye on.
Support: 2064
Resistance 1: 2082.5
Resistance 2: 2145
AMC Earnings Build-upQuick disclaimer, I've posted many Ideas for this stock expecting an uptrend and they haven't panned out, but I'm going to pull out my inner Michael Burry and claim that I don't think I'm wrong, I'm just early.
AMC is currently being pinched in two downtrends that date back to Aug 24th and 25th.
The closer resistance would require the stock to break/stay above 4 dollars (as of tomorrow, Feb 8th). That number goes down every day after that.
The support on this downtrend would have AMC needing to stay above 3$ at the time of earnings on Feb 28th
But TA has let us down before, so let's talk about earnings:
Analysts' expected revenue is 1.046B.
AMC has met or beaten revenue expectations every single quarter since the initial COVID quarter, which hints to the possible re-occurrence for Q4 2023.
Maybe analysts don't exactly know how to calculate/predict AMC's revenue.
Even less now that AMC released their own movies (T. Swift + Beyonce). Nobody knows exactly how much they made from those.
On top of that, there's all the new merch they've been coming out with, popcorn at new stores, their own candy line (which according to Twitter and Reddit, Apes went out and bought like mad for the holidays) AND the AMC VISA Credit Card, of which it is pretty much impossible to predict the revenue from (and I'm optimistic considering VISA destroyed their last earnings)...
I strongly expect an Earnings Beat.
In terms of future outlook, which is also very important in determining the direction of a stock price post-earnings, Q1 will be the absolute weakest of the year for sure. But that doesn't mean it'll be terrible, or even bad. It's kind of too bad Dune 2 isn't released until after earnings. Having just one weekend before the call would give us a greater idea of how the quarter will finish but, if anything, a successful first weekend for Dune 2 immediately after a positive earnings call will just keep the momentum going. The rest of the year has many more blockbusters to come.
This will be my last Idea for AMC, I'll just keep expanding on it from here.
I'm so bullish that I am absolutely sure that we are hovering around the bottom. Once we start going up, there's no looking back.