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Fundamentalanalsysis

AUDCHF - Has A Bullish Falling Wedge Chart Pattern Formed?Analysis: Looking at the charts we can see that price seems to not know where it wants to go. One minute it's heading to the upside and the next it's heading to the downside. This can make it quite hard to trade during these times but we see a setup occurring on this pair. Price recently has been heading to the downside however we are actually bullish on this pair and we think that a breakout to the upside will occur. Where price is currently we have marked out a strong area of previous support. When this level was touched in the past, we saw a huge strong bullish move happen, so we expect that this will happen again, as key levels tend to hold more then once and this level has be held 3 times, making it a very strong support level. To add to our idea, on the higher timeframe, we can clearly see a bullish falling wedge forming. This is a bullish chart pattern which is often followed by a breakout to the upside so this is what we expect to see happen on this pair as this is the pattern that we have. We're also at the bottom trendline of the chart pattern so we expect that there will be some bullish pressure around this area which will hold price and push it to the upside. All of these technical confluences together line up to give us a bullish bias on this pair but lets take a look at the fundamentals. Fundamentally the AUD is the 2nd weakest major currency whereas the CHF is the 3rd weakest major currency so this slightly goes against our idea, however overall we are bullish on this pair. Tomorrow we have some news coming out for the AUD which could give us the catalyst that we need to see price breakout to the upside. This isn't the best looking setup by any means and it does go against the trend slightly however it's still to our trading plan so it's still valid. It doesn't matter how the setup looks, all that matters is the result. As long as you stick to your trading plan and let your edge play out, you'll be profitable. Not every setup will look perfect and the sooner a trader learns this the sooner they will become profitable. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
28
AUDUSD - Are The Bulls Getting Ready To Push Price Higher?Analysis: When we look at price action we've recently seen a strong rejection off of an area and price is making a move back down however we see this as a buying opportunity. If we look at price action before this rejection we can see that price did indeed form a higher high and a higher low showing us that we're in an upwards trend. This higher low hasn't yet been broken so we're still in that upwards trend. At the start of June there was some real strong momentum on the AUDUSD for the bulls and it looks as if they are currently taking a break before we see a continuation higher. This position will also hedge our other USD long positions so if we are incorrect about the USD strength we expect then we will still be able to profit. As a professional trader you need to remember that your job isn't to make a million percent in a year. It's to make a consistent profit whilst managing your risk. If you can't manage risk then you won't make it as a trader and that's the harsh truth. Hedging allows you to diversify your risk which is why we like to do it here at JPI. Were price is currently is an interesting area to us because if we look left on the chart we can see price has held this zone multiple times as support previously and we expect that this will happen again as very often we see this. For more confluence we saw slowing down momentum for the bears at the start of the week as the candles were very small and were indicating a possible reversal. This was also where the 50% fib retracement level was so there was even more confluence that price was going to reverse there, however we were more interested in level slightly below. Early this morning we had some worse then expected news for the AUD so we saw price push down and tag the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib level and we expect that this is were buyers will be sat at wanting to push price higher. With the slowing bearish momentum that we saw this week around the 50% fib retracement level and with the 61.8% fib retracement level being tagged this "golden zone" which is just the area between the 50% fib retracement level and the 61.8% fib retracement level looks like a great place to enter long from especially from our area which is also in this "golden zone". For more confluence we also have an upwards trendline. This trendline is better seen on the weekly timeframe. When this level has been touched before we've seen bulls step in and push the market higher so we'd expect this to happen again. This trendline is below our entry but above our stop loss so if we we're to go into drawdown then there would be a strong level where we'd expect buyers to step in so this gives us more confidence in our setup. Why don't we enter at this trendline then? Well where price is at currently looks like a stronger area for possible reversals and we don't want to miss this trade as it's a good setup. The upwards trendline is just another confluence to add to our bullish thesis. Fundamentally as of the most recent report on institutional positioning the USD is the strongest major currency whereas the AUD is the 6th strongest major currency so this doesn't go in our favour. However if we dig a little deeper you can see why we currently prefer the AUD over the USD. As of the most recent report on institutional positioning we saw a decrease in both short and long positions on the USD so this is pretty neutral but on the AUD in regards to the most recent report for institutional positioning we actually saw an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions which is very bullish. This could be early signs that we could see some bullishness for the AUD in coming weeks. Although the AUD news this morning wasn't positive we still have loads of confluence factors pointing to bullishness on the AUD which is why we have an overall bullish view on AUDUSD. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
16
EURUSD - Will The USD Become The Strongest Currency?Analysis: When we take a look at the technicals for EURUSD, price looks as if it's in an upwards trend as we're forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating to us that we want to long however this isn't what we see and we actually see early signs of a reversal happening. To begin with we have this downwards trendline. Although it has only been respected twice we expect that it will actually hold again for a third time and we will see price reject off of this area. Another confluence on why we think that this area will hold as resistance is because its been tested multiple times. If we look left we can see that price has come to this area before and we then saw a rejection. This has happened twice now and due to other confluence factors we see this happening again. Our final technical confluence factor that we have is this ascending triangle that we broke out of in may indicating to us that there could be some bearishness on the horizon. We're now retesting this ascending triangle and we expect that it will hold as resistance and that price will reverse back to the downside. A big reason for this setup though is the fundamentals so lets take a look at these too. Fundamentally the EUR is just about the 1st strongest major currency compared to the USD which is the 2nd strongest major currency but these two currencies are very close in strength. Whilst this looks like it goes against our idea if we look a little further we get more important data. As of the most recent filling we saw a decrease in long positions by institutions on the USD but we saw an even bigger decrease in short positions by institutions on the USD indicating that there could be some more bullishness coming to the USD whereas for the EUR we saw a decrease in short positions by institutions but an even bigger decrease in long positions by institutions which is bearish for the EUR. This is why we are actually fundamentally bullish on the USD over the EUR. so along with the technicals that we see we're bearish on the EURUSD. Just a note however, this isn't our favourite setup but it fits our plan. We know our strategy is profitable which is why we're taking this setup. We won't know the result until the end but what we know now is that this setup has an edge in the markets so its worth taking and we're confident in it. With that being said lets see if we get that move that we expect. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
20
BluetonaFX - DXY Triangle OpportunityHi Traders! We are nearing a bullish breakout on the US Dollar Index (DXY) 1D chart. This, however, will be heavily dependent on today's and tomorrow's very important fundamental data releases, which will indicate where the US economy is heading. Looking at the technical price action on the chart, we have marked a few key things to focus on. Firstly, there is a symmetrical triangle formation that has developed on the chart, which is a pattern that is neither bullish nor bearish; however, we have a bullish bias on the basis that there was a recent strong bullish momentum swing to test the upside trendline for a possible break above. If there is a break above, we have the psychological 104.000 as a target; the market has not been above the 104.000 level in 4 weeks. Further to the upside, there is the longer-term resistance level at 104.699. This is May 2023's high, so if there is strong bullish momentum, especially if there is positive data for the US in the next couple of days, this level will be a target. On the downside, if we do not get a break and close above the trendline, the market will go back into the range, and we have possible long-term support at 101.921. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX 
TVC:DXY
by BluetonaFX
2
GBPCAD - Inverse head and shoulders pattern forming?Analysis: Price last week managed to put in a new higher high showing us that we're in an upwards trend meaning that we only want to be going long on this pair. At this level we saw that price held as support if we look left so we expect that it will hold again. Now for this particular setup we don't have any fib levels which we usual look for but we do instead have another pattern, an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a bullish chart pattern which is often followed by a bullish move after the second shoulder is formed which is what we expect and this second shoulder lines up with our support level. To add further to this level of support we have a previous downwards trendline that was broken and now is being retested for support. We expect that buyers will set here and will want to hold this level making it a good buying opportunity. Taking a look at the fundamentals we have the GBP which is the 3rd strongest major currency compared to the CAD which is the 2nd weakest major currency so this is already going in our favour, but we get even more confluence as we dig deeper. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning on the CAD we saw an increase in both long and short positions so this is pretty neutral but this isn't the same story for the GBP. As of the most recent report on the GBP for institutional positioning we saw an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions showing the strength of the GBP and we expect that this will continue. Overall the technicals and the fundamentals are pointing to bullishness on this pair which is why we have our long bias on GBPCAD. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
26
TESLA CHART - WEEKLY TIME FRAME The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support.... Tradelikemee Academy
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Tradelikemee
AUDCHF - Breakout Of The Downwards Trend!Analysis: Looking at the chart we can see that we were in a strong downwards trend however at the start of June we were able to break out of this trend and put in a higher high which shows us that the bears have lost control of the market and the bulls are taking over. We have more confluence that price broke out of this downwards trend when we see that the downwards trendline was broken. Price is now pulling back to an area where we previously saw key resistance which we now expect will hold as support as this very often happens. To give added confluence that this area will hold we have the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib level so we expect that around this area we will see buyers sat, wanting to enter into long positions and push price higher. Taking a look at the fundamentals the AUD is the 6th strongest major currency where as the CHF is the 5th strongest major currency so there isn't really much in it here and it actually slightly goes against out thesis but when we dig a little deeper we find out why we prefer the AUD over the CHF. As of the most recent filling for institutional positions we saw a decrease in both long and short positions on the AUD which isn't positive but it also isn't negative. If we take a look at institutional positioning on the CHF we see that as of the most recent filling there was a decrease in long positions and an increase in short positions showing us that the CHF might have some bearishness on the way. From the SNB press conference that we had on Thursday things didn't look too good for the CHF which is another thing keeping us away from going long on the CHF. On this coming Wednesday we have CPI coming out for the AUD which could be the catalyst that we need to rocket price higher so this is what we will be watching out for but for now we have all of the confluences we need to be bullish on AUDCHF which is why we have a long bias on this pair. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
38
The Limits of Fundamental Analysis: An In-Depth PerspectiveFundamental analysis serves as a comprehensive approach to evaluating securities, aiming to assess their intrinsic value by examining the underlying factors that shape their worth. This method involves a meticulous analysis of qualitative and quantitative aspects, enabling an assessment of a company's financial well-being, performance, and future prospects. By diving into financial statements, gathering relevant company information, conducting qualitative and quantitative analysis, performing forecasting, and utilizing valuation techniques, fundamental analysis empowers investors to make well-informed decisions regarding the long-term potential of a security. Undoubtedly, fundamental analysis provides valuable insights and a solid foundation for investment decision-making. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the limitations inherent in this approach and the necessity of adopting a holistic perspective when making investment decisions. While fundamental analysis offers a comprehensive understanding of a company's fundamentals, it may not account for short-term market fluctuations, investor sentiment, or external macroeconomic factors that can significantly impact the performance of a security. Therefore, combining fundamental analysis with other methodologies, such as technical analysis or considering market trends, can provide a more robust and well-rounded approach to investment decision-making. By recognizing the strengths and limitations of fundamental analysis and incorporating it into a broader framework, investors can strive to enhance their chances of making sound investment choices that align with their financial goals and risk tolerance. Knowing How and Why Fundamental Analysis Works Fundamental analysis is a meticulous approach to evaluating securities, such as stocks or bonds, by examining the underlying factors that impact their intrinsic value. This method involves a comprehensive analysis of both qualitative and quantitative factors to assess the financial health, performance, and future prospects of a company or investment. The process of fundamental analysis typically includes several key steps. It begins with analyzing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, to gain insights into its financial position and performance. Gathering relevant company information, such as details about the management team, business model, competitive advantages, and market share, is also crucial. Qualitative analysis plays a significant role in fundamental analysis. It involves evaluating industry dynamics, market trends, regulatory factors, and the competitive landscape to understand the broader context in which the company operates. This analysis helps assess the company's positioning and identify potential risks and opportunities. Quantitative analysis is another vital component of fundamental analysis. It involves examining financial ratios and metrics derived from the company's financial statements. Profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, and valuation ratios provide valuable insights into the company's financial performance, efficiency, and relative valuation. Forecasting and projections are integral to fundamental analysis. Analysts use historical data, industry trends, and other relevant information to make future projections of the company's revenues, earnings, and cash flows. These forecasts help evaluate the company's growth potential and estimate its intrinsic value. Valuation is a critical step in fundamental analysis. Analysts use various methods, such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratios, and price-to-book ratios, to determine the intrinsic value of the company or investment. Based on the intrinsic value compared to the current market price, fundamental analysts make investment decisions. If the intrinsic value suggests that the investment is undervalued, it may be considered an attractive opportunity. On the other hand, if the intrinsic value is lower than the market price, it may indicate an overvalued investment. Arguments Against Fundamental Analysis : Fundamental Analysis Is Outdated For day traders, the immediate market conditions and price movements take precedence over future stock prices, which is a primary focus for long-term investors. Day traders rely on real-time information and timely data to make quick trading decisions. This is where charts become essential, as they provide up-to-date details on price changes, current stock prices, and moment-to-moment fluctuations. Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, relies on analyzing company financials and economic indicators, which are often released after a few days or each quarter. The lag between data releases makes fundamental analysis less suitable for day traders who require more immediate insights. Instead of waiting for economic reports and financial statements, day traders rely on chart analysis to identify trade setups and execute their trading strategies. In this context, fundamental analysis may not be as effective for day trading. Day traders heavily rely on technical analysis techniques, which involve studying charts, patterns, and indicators. These tools allow them to analyze price trends, identify key levels, and determine entry and exit points for their trades. By focusing on real-time data and chart readings, day traders can react swiftly to market movements and implement their trading plans effectively. It's important to understand that while fundamental analysis may have limited applicability for day trading, it remains a valuable tool for long-term investors who consider a broader range of factors and take a more extended perspective on investment decisions. Each approach serves its purpose depending on the trading style and goals of the investor. Fundamental Analysis Is Incapable of Predicting Immediate Reactions The response of the market to fundamental data points, whether they pertain to specific commodities, companies, or the overall economy, can often seem unpredictable. Even when a company's actual earnings exceed analysts' expectations, it does not guarantee that stock prices will always rise. In some cases, if traders had even higher expectations for the company's earnings, the actual result may be viewed as disappointing, leading to a decrease in the value of the asset. Conversely, if traders had anticipated even worse earnings, even a below-average result could cause the investment's value to increase. Market reactions to fundamental data are influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, investor expectations, and prevailing economic conditions. These factors create a complex interplay that can cause stock prices to deviate from what might be considered the "expected" response based solely on the fundamental data. Investors must understand that market reactions are not always straightforward or predictable. Gaining insights into market sentiment and investor expectations, in addition to conducting fundamental analysis, can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential market movements. Furthermore, implementing risk management practices and adopting a diversified investment approach can help mitigate the impact of unexpected market reactions to fundamental data points. Without technical analysis, fundamental analysis cannot be completed. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are two essential tools for understanding price movements and making informed trading decisions. Relying solely on one approach while ignoring the other would be a mistake. Instead, they should be used together to complement each other and provide a comprehensive understanding of the market. Fundamental analysis involves evaluating the underlying factors that drive market sentiment and determine the potential direction of prices. It provides insights into the overall health and prospects of the currencies or assets being traded. On the other hand, technical analysis focuses on analyzing historical price data, chart patterns, and indicators to identify optimal entry and exit points. By combining fundamental and technical analysis, traders gain a more holistic view of the market. Fundamental analysis helps answer the "why" behind price movements, while technical analysis helps determine the "when" to execute trades. Mastering technical analysis enables traders to spot early warning signs and changes in market sentiment, allowing them to react swiftly. By striking a balance between both approaches, traders can make well-informed decisions and improve their overall trading strategy. To enhance understanding of both fundamental and technical analysis, it is beneficial to gather materials and insights from various sources. This approach exposes traders to different perspectives and helps them develop a well-rounded knowledge base. Remember, successful trading involves incorporating both fundamental and technical analysis, rather than relying solely on one approach. Fundamental analysis can't explain why the market went too far. Fundamental analysis is a valuable tool for understanding the intrinsic value of an asset, but it may not fully account for market overreactions. When day trading, it's essential to be aware of significant price movements that can occur when fundamental news, such as the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, is released. During these important releases, the market can react rapidly and sometimes in an exaggerated manner. Positive news initially may create the perception of high employment rates, but subsequent information may reveal little change in unemployment or stagnant wages. It's important to recognize that market overreactions can happen. While certain economic news releases have a strong impact, their effects on market dynamics may not always be lasting or significant. To navigate these sudden market movements, it's crucial to implement strong money management practices. Robust money management strategies can help you better handle market overreactions and potential volatility. This includes setting appropriate Stop Loss orders, managing position sizes, and diversifying your portfolio. These practices protect your capital and mitigate the risks associated with market fluctuations caused by overreactions. While fundamental analysis provides valuable insights into the underlying factors driving market movements, it's important to be aware of the potential for market overreactions and adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Fundamental Analysis Cannot Predict Supply And Demand You are correct that fundamental analysis alone may not be sufficient to predict supply and demand dynamics in day trading, particularly in the forex market where currencies are traded in pairs. While fundamental analysis provides insights into the broader economic factors influencing both currencies, it is crucial to consider additional factors that impact supply and demand dynamics. Market sentiment and overall market dynamics play a significant role in determining the demand and supply of securities. Factors such as investor psychology, market trends, and prevailing market conditions can influence trading volumes and affect price movements beyond fundamental data. It is important to recognize that events unrelated to fundamental data, such as natural disasters or geopolitical tensions, can have a substantial impact on various financial instruments like bonds, stocks, or commodities. These events can shape market sentiment and have implications for day trading. Some events may have a minimal impact, while others can exert significant influence on market sentiment for a specific period. To succeed as a day trader, it is essential to consider a wide range of factors beyond fundamental analysis. This includes staying updated on market sentiment, monitoring technical indicators, and being aware of significant events or developments that may affect supply and demand dynamics. By adopting a comprehensive approach that combines fundamental analysis with an understanding of market sentiment and other relevant factors, you can gain a better understanding of supply and demand dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. Should You Use Fundamental Analysis? Deciding whether to incorporate fundamental analysis into your investment strategy depends on several factors, including your investment goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and trading style. While fundamental analysis offers valuable insights into a security's intrinsic value and long-term prospects, it is not the only approach to consider. Here are some key considerations to help you determine if fundamental analysis is suitable for you: 1 ) Long-Term Investment Goals: If you have a long-term investment horizon and aim to build a portfolio of fundamentally strong companies, fundamental analysis can be beneficial. By evaluating financial statements, industry dynamics, and company information, you can make informed decisions aligned with your long-term investment goals. 2) Value Investing: If you are a value investor, fundamental analysis is particularly relevant. By examining a company's financial health, earnings potential, and valuation, you can identify stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value, offering potential for long-term appreciation. 3 ) Fundamental-Focused Trading Strategy: For investors who employ a fundamental-focused trading strategy, fundamental analysis is crucial. This approach involves using fundamental factors to identify short-term trading opportunities. By analyzing company-specific news, economic indicators, and market trends, you can capitalize on short-term price fluctuations driven by fundamental factors. 4 ) Combining Approaches: Many investors adopt a hybrid approach by combining fundamental analysis with other methods, such as technical analysis or market sentiment analysis. Integrating different approaches can provide a more comprehensive view and help validate investment decisions. For example, technical analysis can help identify optimal entry and exit points based on short-term price patterns, complementing the long-term perspective offered by fundamental analysis. 5 ) Time and Effort: Consider the time and effort required for thorough fundamental analysis. Analyzing financial statements, researching industry trends, and staying updated with company news demands substantial time and research skills. If you have limited availability or prefer a more passive investment approach, fundamental analysis may not be the most suitable option. Ultimately, the decision to use fundamental analysis depends on your investment objectives and individual preferences. It's important to consider your own circumstances, risk tolerance, time availability, and level of expertise before incorporating fundamental analysis into your investment strategy. Fundamental analysis is indeed a valuable tool for investors, providing insights into the intrinsic value and long-term prospects of securities. However, it's important to recognize its limitations and the need to incorporate other methods into the investment process. By combining fundamental analysis with other approaches, investors can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market and make better-informed decisions.
Education
by FOREXN1
8
EURAUD - EUR Weakness On Its Way?Analysis: Looking at the chart and price action we can clearly see that price is in a downwards trend. We're forming lower lows and lower highs which confirms that we're in a downwards trend. Bearing this being in mind we're only looking for short setups. If we look at the previous lower low we have a strong area to enter from. Whys this? Well this area has held multiple times in the past as both support and resistance so we expect that it will do it again. Also in a downwards trend we'd expect price to pullback to the previous lower low to put in a new lower high before continuing to the downside and this is what we're seeing now. For more added confluence at this area we also have the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib level. We expect that sellers will be sat at this level wanting to push price down further, so this helps out our bearish thesis. We also have a downwards trendline very close by. This trendline has been respected in the past so we expect that it will be respected again and we will see sellers enter into the market pushing price down further. Fundamentally the EUR is the strongest major currency compared to the AUD which is the 6th strongest major currency so this really doesn't go in our favour but in recent news events we've actually see some bullish news come out for the AUD with regards to unemployment claims and other key events whereas for the EUR it's been slightly mixed. This to us looks like early signs that we could be seeing some bullishness for the AUD and some bearishness for the EUR soon, which is why we want to get on this move before it happens so we can catch a great trade. With all of the confluences that we have both technically and fundamentally we have a bias to the downside which is why we're bearish EURAUD. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
32
Paramount Communications- Fundamental➢ Paramount Communications Ltd is engaged in manufacturing of Wires& Cables comprising of power cables, telecom cables, railway cables and specialised cables ➢ Completely in cable manufacturing with good capex investments &3 factories across India. ➢ Product line consists of a complete range ➢ Power: LT & HT Power Cables, LT & HT Aerial Bunch Cables, Control Cables, Instrumentation Cables. ➢ Telecom: Optical Fiber Cable (OFC) & FTTH Jelly Filled Cables, CATV ➢ Railways: Signalling Cables, Railway Power Axle Counter Cables. ➢ Special Products: PTFE & Thermocouple Cables, Quad Cables Fire Survival Cables, Solar Cables. ➢ EPC Services: Telecom Consultancy & EPC, Power & Railway EPC Turnkey Projects, Specialized Projects OPGW. ➢ What is the price to be invested Current Market Price -36.60 Investment Price -35-40. Investment value should not exceed 20,000/- Stoploss Exit Price – 21 Target – 126 ➢ Before investing please understand the risk involved and consult your financial advisor.
NSE:PARACABLESLong
by Microcap_Investor
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 19–23 June, 2023: Fundamentals This week was a very eventful one, filled with major announcements from central banks and key data releases. Less-hawkish-than-expected meeting minutes from the Bank Of Japan (BOJ) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) weakened both the Australian dollar and Japanese yen throughout the week. The U.K. announced higher-than-expected inflation figures in May, which led to concerns about the UK's economic growth and caused weakness in the British pound. However, there was a small bounce back following an interest rate hike from the Bank Of England (BOE). The US dollar strengthened following hawkish testimony from Federal Reserve Governor Powell. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Yellen said she sees a lower U.S. recession risk and that a consumer slowdown is needed to contain inflation. After a tentative start to the week, the Euro started gaining ground mid-week when the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish bias stood out while markets worried about global growth trends. ECB Executive Board member Schnabel sees prices rising due to corporate profits and higher salaries. Key Data US Initial weekly jobless claims for the week ending June 17: 264K vs. 271K the previous week Germany Producer Prices Index for May: -1.4% m/m (-0.6% m/m forecast; +0.3% m/m previous) The Bank of England confirmed a 50 basis point interest rate hike to 5.00% with a 7-2 vote. The U.K.'s inflation rate remained at 8.7% y/y in May. UK Retail sales slowed down from 0.5% m/m to 0.3% m/m in May (compared to -0.2% m/m expected). RBA meeting minutes showed rate hike arguments were "finely balanced," as members weighed inflation risks, a tight labour market, and rising home prices. The BOJ's meeting minutes showed one member wanting to ensure that their policy "does not fall behind the curve" as wages and inflation accelerate. Technicals AUDUSD 1W Chart The Australian dollar was very bearish this week. The chart shows a bearish engulfing candle, which suggests that the bearish momentum will continue. There is a support level at 0.64583, which is May 2023's low. USDJPY 1W Chart The US dollar is gaining huge momentum against the Japanese yen, which must cause some concern for the Japanese economy. It looks like it is heading for the Apex level at 151.946. This is a level the market has not been at in more than 30 years. Before that level, there is a vector level at 145.902. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD reached 1.10000 again after 5 weeks and has now pulled back from the psychological level. The price action on the chart suggests that there may be a triangle pattern forming. There is another resistance level above 1.10000 at 1.10956. GBPUSD 1W Chart After breaking the 13-month resistance level of 1.26670 the previous week, this week traders retested the resistance break of 1.26670, and the market is still trading above the resistance level. If the bullish momentum continues, the next long-term resistance level will be the psychological 1.30000 level. We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JUNE 23, 2023Events: UK - Manufacturing PMI USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USA - Services PMI (Jun) During Thursday's trading session, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq displayed upward movement, propelled by the statements made by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell's hawkish stance indicated that the central bank's tightening cycle was not yet complete, instilling confidence in investors. However, he also emphasized the Fed's commitment to exercising caution in its approach to monetary policy. The Nasdaq, known for its heavy concentration of technology stocks, experienced significant gains. This surge in the index was primarily driven by the momentum stocks of prominent companies like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT). These tech giants showcased impressive performance, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the progress of the broader S&P 500 index was more modest compared to the Nasdaq's surge. While still displaying positive movement, the gains in the S&P 500 were not as pronounced as those in the technology-driven Nasdaq. In contrast to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) remained relatively unchanged. The Dow is composed of large, established companies from various sectors, including industrials and financials. However, during this particular trading session, these sectors had a minimal impact on the index's performance. Overall, the market sentiment on Thursday was largely influenced by Powell's statements, which offered a mixed perspective. While indicating a continued tightening of monetary policy, Powell also reassured investors about the Fed's cautious approach. This combination of factors led to varying degrees of upward movement in different indices, with the Nasdaq taking the lead, followed by the S&P 500, while the Dow remained relatively stable. NASDAQ indice daily chart S&P500 indice daily chart DJI indice daily chart During his appearance before the Senate Banking Committee for the semi-annual monetary policy testimony, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his stance on the likelihood of further interest rate hikes in the near future. This statement reaffirmed his belief in the need for continued tightening of monetary policy to address potential inflationary pressures and maintain economic stability. Powell's perspective on future rate hikes was echoed by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman during the session. The alignment of views between Powell and Bowman highlights the consensus within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential necessity of raising interest rates as part of their ongoing efforts to carefully manage the country's economic growth. The reaffirmation of this belief in further rate hikes signals the Fed's commitment to a proactive approach in addressing economic conditions and maintaining a balanced monetary policy. By emphasizing the likelihood of future interest rate increases, Powell and Bowman are providing transparency to market participants and indicating their intention to address inflationary pressures and promote sustainable economic expansion. As the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in shaping financial markets and investor sentiment, the reaffirmation of the potential for rate hikes in the coming months will likely influence market dynamics and investor decision-making. Traders and market participants will closely monitor future statements and actions from the Federal Reserve for further insights into the timing and magnitude of potential interest rate adjustments. US initial jobless claims In the economic landscape, the stability of jobless claims at a 20-month high reflects persistent challenges in the labor market. This indicates ongoing difficulties for job seekers and potential concerns about employment conditions. Additionally, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which tracks various indicators to gauge the future direction of the economy, recorded its 14th consecutive monthly decline. This suggests that the Federal Reserve's efforts to moderate economic growth are starting to have the intended impact of slowing down the overall pace of expansion. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) has made a decision to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes during its 13th meeting under its tightening policy. This move has received mixed reactions from different stakeholders in the financial markets. Households, bond investors, stock investors, and foreign exchange (FX) traders have expressed their disapproval of the BoE's decision. This dissent stems from concerns about the potential impact of higher interest rates on borrowing costs, investment returns, and currency valuations. These stakeholders are closely monitoring the consequences of the BoE's actions and adjusting their strategies accordingly. The BoE's decision to hasten the pace of interest rate hikes highlights their focus on managing inflationary pressures and ensuring economic stability. However, the varied reactions from market participants reflect the complexity and potential trade-offs associated with monetary policy decisions. As the effects of the BoE's actions unfold, it will be crucial to monitor the implications for different sectors of the economy and assess how market dynamics and investor sentiment are influenced by these policy moves. UK interest rate Despite the stabilization of the 2-year gilt yield above the 5% threshold, it failed to receive a substantial boost. This can be attributed to concerns among market participants regarding the potential negative consequences of the Bank of England's (BoE) proposed additional interest rate hike of one full percentage point. These concerns mainly revolve around the potential impact on the British economy, particularly in the property market. The anticipation of such a significant rate increase has dampened investor sentiment, leading to a cautious approach. In parallel, the 10-year gilt yield has experienced a decline in response to the prevailing gloomy economic outlook. This decline reflects market expectations of a challenging economic environment and a lack of optimism regarding future growth prospects. The declining yield suggests that investors are seeking safer assets amid uncertainty, resulting in increased demand for long-term government bonds. The possibility of Britain avoiding a recession, let alone a property crisis, appears increasingly unlikely in light of these developments. The market sentiment is shaped by concerns about the potential adverse effects of higher interest rates on the property market, which is a key sector of the British economy. This sentiment is further fueled by the prevailing economic uncertainties, both domestically and globally. Turning to the FTSE 100, the index has approached the 7500 level. However, trend and momentum indicators are displaying negative signals, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. Additionally, the index is nearing oversold conditions, suggesting that it may be due for a potential rebound or period of consolidation. FTSE 100 daily chart The performance of large British companies has been negatively impacted by falling energy and commodity prices, influenced by a relatively weak reopening in China. This year, these factors have contributed to bearish pressure on the companies, and the situation has been further intensified by rising interest rates. Until there is a rebound in global energy prices, which is yet to materialize, the outlook for the FTSE 100 remains neutral to negative. The market will closely monitor any developments that could potentially improve the prospects for energy prices and subsequently impact the performance of the index. Interestingly, in response to the 50 basis point interest rate hike, the pound depreciated instead of appreciating, contrary to the typical expectation. This reaction reflects the sentiment of the market, which believes that the challenges and uncertainties facing Britain outweigh the potential positive effects that higher interest rates could generate. The prevailing concerns and uncertainties surrounding the British economy have outweighed the impact of the rate hike, leading to a depreciation of the pound. Turning to the gold market, prices experienced a slight decline on Friday, signaling a potentially challenging week and heading towards their worst performance since January. This decline can be attributed to the significant rate hike by the Bank of England, coupled with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. These developments have raised concerns among investors about the prospect of tighter monetary conditions. Market participants will closely monitor any further signals and actions from central banks, as they have a significant influence on gold prices. XAU/USD daily chart Gold prices have reached a three-month low, breaking out of a narrow trading range observed over the past month, but unfortunately in a downward direction. This decline in gold prices indicates a shift in market sentiment and a potential weakening of demand for the precious metal. Looking ahead to Friday's session, investors will closely monitor the release of preliminary manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. These indicators provide valuable insights into the health and performance of these sectors, serving as important economic barometers. The PMI data can influence market sentiment and investor confidence, as it offers a glimpse into the overall economic activity and potential growth prospects. In addition to the PMI data, market participants will also pay attention to speeches from several members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Bullard, Bostic, and Mester. These speeches have the potential to shed further light on the monetary policy outlook and provide clarity on the Fed's stance and future actions. The comments made by FOMC members can significantly impact market expectations, especially regarding interest rates and overall monetary policy direction. Overall, Friday's session is expected to be influenced by the release of PMI data and the speeches from FOMC members. These events will shape market sentiment and provide crucial insights into the current economic conditions and the potential future trajectory of monetary policy. Investors will closely analyze these developments to make informed decisions and position themselves accordingly in the market.
by FOREXN1
10
USDJPY I The next opportunity to consider to get a GOOD DEAL💰Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
1
🐂📈 Seizing the Double Bottom: GBPUSD Bulls Ready to Charge! Our journey begins with the formation of a double bottom pattern, a powerful reversal pattern signaling a shift in market sentiment. Now, as price prepares to break the neckline, a prime opportunity arises to enter a long position with a tight stop loss. Keep a close watch for inside bar breakouts, where candlestick patterns offer a clear entry signal. Adding strength to this setup, the exponential moving averages (EMAs) are acting as solid support levels, with a potential crossover imminent. This convergence of technical indicators reinforces the security of our bullish thesis. But that's not all! Yesterday's bullish news on Sterling has further strengthened the probability of a bullish scenario. The release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) revealed positive figures, indicating a robust economic performance for the UK. This positive development adds to the fundamental support for a potential rally in GBPUSD. Profit targets are a crucial aspect of any successful trade. In this case, I suggest taking partial profits when price reaches the neckline, located at 1.24500. This level holds significance and may introduce some resistance. However, our ultimate target aligns with the completion of a harmonic bat pattern, specifically point D, projected to be around 1.25200. Harmonic patterns offer valuable insights into potential price movements, enhancing the probability of a successful trade. Keeping an eye on the broader picture, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) further bolsters our bullish stance. Breaking above the 50 level and sustaining around this zone, the RSI indicates a continuation of the rally, supporting the case for an upward move. So, join the bullish ride and seize this exciting opportunity on GBPUSD! Dont forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful 🐂📈💪
Editors' picks
Long
by Thomas_Zito
25
$HOOD - A New Generation, A New Bull MarketState of the Stock Robinhood’s time in the stock market has been an arduous one and not one without controversy. The stock went public in a hotly anticipated IPO at about $36.41 on July 29th, 2021. It saw tremendous interest in the first week of trading reaching an overly lofty value at ~$85 a share before starting to sell off. This sell off has relentlessly continued and in many places, you will find negative commentary on the stock. I personally believe that the stock’s price action bottomed on June 17th, 2022 at about $6.84 a share. Since then the stock has been slowly plodding along and striking higher lows, which I will illustrate later in the charting. I also believe that the stock’s story is close to turning around and could get more positive attention in the later half of this year. I am going to talk about the balance sheet, cost cutting, charts, and the controversy. I will be limiting my comments on the balance sheet to lines that I believe deserve notice. For this post, I will be comparing Robinhood to their old school rival, Charles Schwab. The Balance Sheet (See Robinhood's Financials) Overall, I read Robinhood’s balance sheet as being quite strong. Particularly in the amount of cash and sort term investments that the company is carrying. At 5.46 Billion in cash and 1.52 Billion in short term investments the company can cover operating expenses (excl. COGS) for about 3.5 years. The company has also shared that the short term investments are in <1 year term treasuries. Which is quite a good decision given the current rates. I only wish they had purchased a little more than 500 million or so. As of this writing (6-11-23), Robinhood carries a market cap of ~$8.5 billion as well. Their cash position is nearly the size of their entire equity. In comparison, SCHW (Charles Schwab) has about $75 billion in cash and a market cap of 100 Billion. I believe that the market is underestimating how Robinhood can deploy that cash. Lastly, Robinhood is very close (9.41 market) to their book value per share (7.83). In comparison, SCHW has a book value per share of 15.36 and is trading at 55.0 in the market. I believe this illustrates that Robinhood is quite cheap, even after the June ’22 bounce when it was cheaper than the book. (See Robinhood's Financials) Next, the cashflow at Robinhood is quite good and turned positive in Q4’22. Whereas their rivals are experiencing negative free cash flow during this same period. Robinhood, on a relative basis for this metric, looks to be outperforming during the banking crisis. During their earnings calls they have also reported a net increase in deposits as well as assets under custody (AUC) increasing by an impressive 26% due to the run on stocks in 2023. What I find most interesting about this is that customer cash in Robinhood has steadily grown to $11 billion from $2 billion at IPO. It has been on an impressive path of growth. I believe this is the result of their strong “Brokerage Cash Sweep” program and the rates they’ve been able to offer. They have been able to effectively remove the friction between treasury yield and their customers. This also creates a beneficial situation where their clients can deploy capital quickly, while maintaining some yield from their cash. Effectively, creating productive reserves for their customers who can choose to deploy it at any moment right on their app. (See Robinhood's Financials) Lastly, the company itself is quite close to profitability. The next 4 quarters are projected by broader WallStreet to come in at an EPS of about -0.01 to -0.03. Any positive change in their costs or earnings could lead to a surprise profit. Such as cash from treasury yield, cost cutting measures, new products, or increased business. The company itself continues to stress, that they are becoming leaner as time goes on. I believe that to be true. Cutting Costs – The Layoffs In 2022, Robinhood performed several rounds of lay offs. This allowed them to cut Q2 ’22 and Q3 ’22 operating expenses significantly (excl. COGS). This does not appear to have impacted their revenue growth and has given them the added benefit of being ‘right sized’. And to the best of my knowledge, no further lay offs are currently on the table. In fact, their revenue is now higher than it has ever been since IPO at $447 million and is pushing them ever closer to profitability. “Robinhood Is Laying Off 9% of Its Full-Time Employees” – Wall Street Journal, Apr. 29, 2022 www.wsj.com “Robinhood Lays Off 23% of Staff as Retail Investors Fade From Platform” – Wall Street Journal, Aug. 2, 2022 www.wsj.com 2023 Road Map – 4 Catalysts Now that we’ve talked about cost cutting, let’s take a look at the road map and see if there are opportunities for fundamental growth. I will list out 4 that I believe can have a positive impact on their business. Options Trading in Cash Accounts Margin Outside Gold Futures Trading UK Market Expansion Lets tackle the first two on the list. Options Trading in Cash Accounts should continue to grow their existing business. This should increase their revenue generated per user as more current customers have access to more products. Options trading is particularly popular among Robinhood’s customer demographic. Margin Outside Gold I find personally controversial. I personally don’t believe in using margin. Regardless, it should also increase their revenue generated per user. While both of these are improvements that could turn the company profitable for EPS. They are not as major as the next two items. Futures trading would open an entire new market for the Robinhood user. I believe it is an incredibley potent catalyst for their user base and will allow their customers to trade more often and in new ways. Robinhood advancing offerings for active traders In March, we applied for a Futures Commission Merchant license and, if approved on a typical timeline, we expect to launch futures trading by the end of 2023. s28.q4cdn.com UK Market Expansion should allow them to acquire a significant number of new users. Robinhood continues to explore growth opportunities, expands access globally With an experienced team leading and an existing license in place, we believe we’re on track for our ambitious goal of launching brokerage services in the UK by the end of the year. s28.q4cdn.com To summarize, I believe expanding into a new country, the UK, and providing futures trading to their existing customers they expand their business significantly over time. Lets take a look now at the charts and see what we can find in the price action. Charting A Path The first thing of note on Robinhood’s stock chart is that a series of higher lows have been put in. The price action, for the first time since IPO, is showing an increasing pattern in the price. I believe the stock has a classic Falling Wedge which I interpret as bullish. I believe the wedge has formed because of the positive developments in the balance sheet, cost cutting, and the future outlook. Examining the MACD on the 1D time scale we also see higher lows put in as well as an MACD crossover onto the positive scale. Overall, I read the charts as having increasingly positive momentum. I also believe that momentum is growing, albeit slowly. Lastly, on the 2D time scale my favorite indicator, DMI, shows the bulls having taken control on ~May 24 2023. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that was the low after the most recent earnings report. I believe the majority of the bears have left the stock as evident by their strength at ~11.5. We also have seen the natural termination of the ADX which implies, to me, that the previous trading trend for the stock has come to an end. A new trend does appear to be forming. It could fizzle out, but that’s up to Robinhood’s management. I believe all of the necessary setups are currently there for them to succeed as both a company and a stock. Closing Thoughts & Possible Risks The Demographic & The Controversy By discussing Robinhood here, I feel that I must mention reddit’s r/wallstreetbets. The community there has a significant impact I believe on Robinhood’s success or failure. The community has a significant following and many of their members use the app. I believe they are an opportunity for Robinhood as well as a possible risk. The 14 million members are potential customers for the Futures trading introduction as well as the increased margin offerings. However, the community has aligned itself with being against the Robinhood app and have been in a ‘boycott’ of the app since the GME trading saga of early 2021. While the community is very vocal on the matter, many of the posts continue to show use of the Robinhood app. At a minimum, it remains controversial, but still in use. This has led me to believe that most of the drama has faded and because of the high quality product Robinhood offers, has started to draw users back to the app. I believe this is well illustrated in their MAU and NFA graphs. There’s a unique opportunity here for them to either win back this community or lose them forever. This could also be related to the flurry of trading activity seen in stocks related to AI in the past few months. Heavy Insider Selling An additional risk is that the insiders, specifically Tenev Vladimir, CEO & Bhatt Baiju, Chief Creative Officer, continue to sell large numbers of shares. This is creating an immense downward pressure on the stock price. If this pattern continues, it could contribute negatively to the stocks performance. However, I believe that’s a non-issue if the company becomes profitable. I hope that we are approaching the end of the insider selling. Crypto & SEC Action Additionally, due to recent events, Robinhood has pulled 3 of their crypto offerings. I believe this is another mixed risk. While they will take a revenue hit by delisting those tokens, they may end up gaining users if customers of Coinbase or Binance decide to take their business elsewhere. It could end up being beneficial to Robinhood, but there’s no way of knowing at this time. At the time of this writing there has been no report that I can find of Robinhood receiving a notice on the matters affecting Binance and Coinbase. Robinhood instead chose to remove the 3 affected securities voluntarily. I believe this is the responsible thing to do and well advised. By taking pre-emptive action they are protecting their business from getting entangled in the matter and remaining compliant with the SEC. This is a value the company has stated a number of times during their earnings calls. I believe their actions demonstrate that value and is representative of good governance from the company leadership. That said, the SEC could still take action against the company if they choose to do so. Therefore, it still carries some risk and must be considered. Macro & Last Thoughts So, here we are. It’s June 11th, 2023. Costs are significantly reduced and being controlled, notable Roadmap 2023 objectives are close, plans for new markets and offerings are approaching, and revenue continues to grow. The company is just a few pennies away on EPS from breaking even or potentially turning a profit. There is also significant distance from the drama surrounding GameStop, Robinhood, and WallStreetBets. The charts are showing higher lows being put in place. More positive momentum looks to be coming into the stock via the MACD. Additionally, the bulls appear to have taken control via the DMI on ~May 24th, 2023. I believe this is a case where a significant breakout could occur. It remains to be seen if it will, but I believe there is a potential trade here to the upside. It is not without downside risk though and that must be taken into consideration. Current thinking in the market is that we may be entering a new bull market based off of recent SP500 closing levels. However, the macroeconomic picture still remains unclear. Particularly in regards to inflation, interest rates, and consumer spending. If it is a new bull market, Robinhood may benefit from increased trading activity, but if the macroeconomic picture deteriorates it could degrade Robinhood’s business and affect the stock. Either way, I personally believe the stock is in an interesting position within the market. Trade carefully, trade wisely. ~Kryptonite As always, please consult the appropriate professionals for any financial decisions. I am not a professional. I am an amateur hobbyist. These are my own personal opinions that I’ve expressed regarding the market and the companies mentioned above. I am not responsible for any decision, trade, or investment you may make. You should assume that as of the publication date of any report, post, or communication referencing any publicly traded security or asset that Kryptonite Research (myself) may have a position in the security or asset and I might stand to realize significant gains if the price of the stock moves. Following publication of any report, post, or communication, I intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and Kryptonite Research (myself) may be long, short, or even neutral at any time thereafter regardless of Kryptonite Research’s (myself) initial position. I reserve the right to alter my position at any time without notice. Images are sourced from the TradingView app, Adobe Stock photos, and Robinhood’s Investor Relations. I do not claim ownership. As an additional disclaimer, at the time of this writing I am a Robinhood customer and holding a position in Robinhood’s stock.
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by kryptoniteresearch
1
USDebtCeilingCrisis.ComLet’s make some noise for the 11th hour party people. Bipartisan talks between US President Biden and House Republicans over the debt ceiling crisis have finally come to a resolution. Well, in theory at least since there is the small matter of Congress having to vote on it later this week. US lawmakers might balk at the idea that this is an 11th hour deal since the much touted ‘hard deadline’ of the 1st of June has now moved to the 5th of June. Any chances we could see that pushed forward by a few more days in the event of further brinkmanship during the Congressional vote on the deal? Make no mistake. Regardless of the real hard deadline before the US technically defaults on its public debt, this will have been an 11th hour deal. The thing with 11th hour deals whether they’re related to business, divorce settlements, ransom/hostage negotiations or drug deals is that they tend to be equally bad for both parties but at least everyone walks away equally disappointed. A deal as critical as the one needed to tackle the debt ceiling crisis should have been done and dusted well before this game of chicken ended in both parties swerving just before the head on collision. The US debt ceiling issue is a bubble. The limit has been lifted 78 times since 1960 and is quite the magician’s trick. Raising the limit each time a ceiling is reached and then kicking the issue into the long grass until the next time negotiations need to take place is dangerous enough but the way in which this current deal has been tentatively reached has created micro tears in this bubble and only time will tell if the bubble bursts at some point in the not- too-distant future. Even a smooth run through Congress later this week will be short-term relief for markets as the possibility of a crash depends on the extent of any liquidity leaving the system and where exactly that liquidity drain comes from as soon as the US Treasury turns on the T-bill tap to full blast after a confirmed deal. These are exciting times for FX traders as we trade the bull runs, the bear runs and the crashes. Keep yourself educated and informed at all times. And remember that whenever you go to the market, be careful out there. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
4
MARKETS week ahead: May 28 – June 3Last week in the news The saga over US debt-ceiling continues to be number one topic among investors and financial markets. During the previous week both EU and US equity markets gained on a possibility that the deal could be soon reached. On the other hand, the crypto market continues to trade in a relatively calm mood, for the second week in a row. Bitcoin is ending the week above $26.5K, and Ether above $1.8K. The debt-ceiling talks are still in the spotlight of investors, and a question of what sort of the deal will be accomplished. As per House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, some progress has been made, but more progress is needed in order to accomplish the deal. News reported on a possibility for the debt-ceiling to be raised for a period of two years. At the same time, the US Treasury Secretary warned on Friday that the US Treasury will be able to serve its obligations until June 5th, which is now treated as a new “X date”. As announced on Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 0.4% compared to the previous month, and 4.7% on a yearly basis. Considering that results were higher from market expectation, markets are now pricing a 25 bps increase of interest rates at the FOMC meeting in June. The German economy officially entered into technical recession as of the end of the previous year. Officially published data on German GDP show a negative trend for the last two quarters, which pushed the largest EU economy into recession. Economists are of the opinion that the trend of falling GDP should not continue during the course of this year, however, there are no expectations that GDP will grow, either. The National bank of Norway in its report noted that the regulation around crypto assets should be further developed. They commented on recently adopted MiCA regulation within the EU, which should get into force soon, and expressed the opinion that the national bank should react sooner than to wait for internationally accepted regulation. This comes especially taking into account collapses of stablecoins, like Terra, and largest crypto exchanger FTX. Cathie Wood, founder of the investment firm ARK Invest, commented at the Fortune`s Next Gen conference that the US is currently losing the battle within the crypto world, due to lack of a clear regulatory framework. The businesses around digital assets are moving away from the US, as Coinbase (COIN) received a license to operate in Bermuda and is looking for a way to further expand in Singapore. South Africa is another country in line, which has introduced a law on regulating crypto business. Starting from 1st June all companies that conduct business within the area of the digital assets, need to hold a regular license from the country's Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA). Such a move was generally perceived as a positive by local companies dealing with crypto assets. Crypto market cap The so-called X-date is now set for June 5th, at least per latest statements from Treasury Secretary Yellen. The negotiations are still taking place, while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy noted that some progress has been made but more progress is needed. This was enough for financial markets to enter again in a positive mood and trade accordingly. Although the equity markets gained on this glimpse of a potential deal in the coming period, still the crypto market continues to be in a calm phase. Investors are here on hold, waiting to see the final outcome of the debt-deal in order to position within the crypto market. For the second week in a row total market capitalization remained relatively flat. During the previous week, total market cap was decreased by modest $8B or 1%. There has been almost equal number of coins which gained and lost in value during the week. Daily trading volumes continue to be decreased, still moving around SGX:40B on a daily basis. Market is on a road of exhaustion, waiting for a specific signal in order to be back on the old road. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at 43%, where it has added a total $327B to the market cap. Previous week was one of the rare weeks on the crypto market when there had been almost equal numbers of winning and losing coins. However, both gains and losses were in a relatively lower range. Considering that overall volume of market cap remained relatively flat, it seems that currently there is more of a repackaging of current portfolios, rather than actual flow on or from crypto market. Bitcoin lost almost $4B in market value, which represents 0.7% of its total value. Ether remained flat with a small gain of 0.4% during the week, while BNB had a modest drop of $0.7B or 1.4%. Coins which gained the most during the week in a relative terms were NEO, surging more than 10% and was followed by Miota, with a gain of 8% in the market value within a single week. Tron also had a good week, with a gain in value of 7.6%, as well as Polygon, who surged by 5.5% w/w. On a losing side were Algorand, who dropped by 9.2%, while Uniswap was down by 5.2% w/w. As for coins in circulation, XRP continues to gain since the start of this year, adding 0.2% new coins during the previous week. Tether increased its coins in circulation by 0.3%, while Filecoin`s circulating coins were up by 0.2% during the previous week. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market was also traded in a relatively calm mode during the previous week. Short term BTC futures were down by some 0.6% on average, while ETH futures only modestly gained during the week, of some 1.5% on average. Longer term BTC futures had a higher drop from short term ones, of some 1.3%. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price of $27.305, which was 1.03% lower from the week before, while those maturing in December 2024 were down by 1.17% w/w, ending the week at price of $27.950. ETH longer term futures were traded a bit higher, around 0.6% w/w. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price of $1.834, while those maturing in December next year were closed at price $1.881. Range of prices for both coins between short and longer futures remains to be very tight. This indicates that markets are still perceiving future prices of both coins in the light of a potential recession in the US and tighter monetary conditions, from which the crypto market will not benefit.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
USDJPY I Positive US debt ceiling talks and weekly outlookWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
4
Decoding the Structure of the Federal Reserve System 🏦 If you've ever wondered how the U.S. monetary system functions and who runs the show, keep reading. In this article, we will break down the structure of the Federal Reserve System and help you understand how it operates. 🏦 The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It was created in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act and is an independent entity within the government. The Fed has a three-part structure, including the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). 1️⃣ Board of Governors: The Board of Governors is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System. It consists of seven members appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year non-renewable terms. One person is designated by the President as Chair and another as Vice-Chair. The Board's main function is to set monetary policy, supervise and regulate banking institutions, and maintain the stability of the financial system. 2️⃣Federal Reserve Banks: There are 12 Federal Reserve Banks located throughout the United States. Each Federal Reserve Bank serves a specific geographic district and is responsible for carrying out the policies set forth by the Board of Governors. The Federal Reserve Banks are overseen by a board of nine directors, six of whom are appointed by banks in the district, and three by the Board of Governors. In addition to overseeing the banking system, the Federal Reserve Banks also provide services to financial institutions and the U.S. Treasury. These services include processing and clearing checks, storing currency, and distributing new currency. 3️⃣Federal Open Market Committee: The FOMC is the most powerful body within the Federal Reserve System. It is responsible for setting monetary policy, specifically the target for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans. The FOMC is made up of the seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year to analyze economic data and determine appropriate policy decisions. Their decisions impact not only the banking system but also the overall economy. For example, if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates, it will become more expensive to borrow money, affecting everything from mortgages to credit card payments. Conclusion: The Federal Reserve System is a complex organization that plays a critical role in the U.S. economy. Its structure is designed to ensure checks and balances across its three branches so that no one entity has too much power. While the Board of Governors sets policy and oversees the entire system, the Federal Reserve Banks carry out those policies and provide essential services to the financial system. The FOMC, on the other hand, is responsible for setting monetary policy, affecting the interest rates that impact our daily lives. Understanding the Federal Reserve System is essential for anyone wanting to understand the U.S. economy. Knowing how the Fed operates can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their finances. With this knowledge, you can better navigate the ups and downs of the economy and protect your hard-earned money. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Will we break the range?Hi Traders! EURUSD is very quiet and looking for a direction. This may depend on fundamental news out later today with the FOMC and ECB speaking this evening. On a technical outlook, we have a bearish price channel with lower highs and lower lows, there is strong buying pressure around the 1.09630 area and strong selling pressure around the 1.10950 area. Whether we breakout to the upside or downside may depend on what we hear from both the FOMC and ECB. We will be listening closely to what they say and keep you updated with how the market behaves to both their respective announcements. Please make sure to follow, like and comment. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
Unlocking the Secrets of Fundamental AnalysisFundamental analysis is a method of analyzing financial markets that involves examining a company's financial health, including its earnings, revenue, debt levels, and other economic indicators. The goal of fundamental analysis is to determine the intrinsic value of a company's stock and make investment decisions based on that value. Fundamental analysts typically begin by examining a company's financial statements, such as its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. They also look at other economic indicators, such as interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending, to get a broader picture of the overall market conditions. One of the key principles of fundamental analysis is that a company's stock price should reflect its true value. Fundamental analysts use a variety of methods, such as discounted cash flow analysis and price-to-earnings ratios, to determine a company's intrinsic value. Another principle of fundamental analysis is that market trends and sentiment can create temporary mispricings in a company's stock price. This means that even a company with strong fundamentals can experience a temporary decline in stock price due to market factors. Fundamental analysis can be a useful tool for long-term investors who are looking to invest in companies with strong financials and growth potential. However, it is important to note that fundamental analysis is not a foolproof method of investing, and that there is always some level of risk involved. In summary, fundamental analysis is a method of analyzing financial markets that involves examining a company's financial health and economic indicators to determine its intrinsic value. While fundamental analysis can be a useful tool for long-term investors, it is important to remember that there is always some level of risk involved with investing.
Education
by glorias3972