EURO FUTURES, EURUSD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY OUTLOOK What we have here is the fundamental outlook from the Net-positions of Big Fund Managers.
Fund Managers are normally trend following.
Every time there is a negative or positive divergence between the price chart and the Fund Managers Net positions, Price usually follows next forming the trend.
Fund Managers net positions moves the market because they have big reportable positions to the CFTC.
We are currently approaching a Daily and Weekly Supply zone which could be the cause of price falling down in the next few weeks.
Also, Euro is negatively correlated to DXY, wherein we are currently in the oversold reading.
***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Fundamentalstrategy
It's Meme's Galore......But is PEPE different?DOGE, SHIB, FLOKI, BONK, DOGWIFHAT, and whatever else you can come up with, but it down and there might be a coin created with that name. The meme scene has exploded, with only a few pushing into the billion market arena (FLOKI and BONK is in there). PEPE has exploded to pushing to the #28 coin, boasting a market cap around $3.4 billion. Aside from it being a famous character from around 24 years ago and riding that wave, is there anything else going on for this coin. Well one noticeable thing I researched was how it came on the scene. There wasn't any money raising or push to get in the coin. It was just there and all of a sudden started popping up. PEPE also doesn't charge any taxes. Its roadmap is simple to understand. And it has been gaining a decent amount of traction (pushing into more and more brokerages). But on its website, it says that there is no utility in the token and that it is for entertainment purposes. But look what happened to DOGE. The DOGE founder stated that it's just a meme coin, yet the coin shot up to around 0.72 in 2021. Could PEPE do this, maybe.
Looking at the charts (weekly), there is a descending channel showing which, if correct, could eventually release that kinetic energy to spring price up to its all time high, and maybe higher. But there is some conflicting signals, such as the possible ascending head and shoulders pattern, and price trading in a possible range/Darvus Box at 0.0000050-0.000009 (D1). If price does break out of D1, it still has to fight not completing the second shoulder of the H/S pattern. If it does climb higher, there is still the creation of either a double top or bottom, unless price is able to go parabolic in the next couple months.
There is a decent sized community like some of the other meme coins, and potentially a lot of people are HODL to see if there is 10x or more gains. Yet I see this as a play that could have some money put into it to see what happens with this token. This coin has gained a lot of ground and traction, so I am in it to see what happens. In the overall Crypto market, I think it will be going up, so with the main, alt, and meme, let's see what happens. I think PEPE will have another surge, potentially towards the end of November or in the the middle of the 1st Quarter of next year.
Gold 2,538$, Sept 24'. Sharp Decline follows ContinuationHello Traders. This is my analysis of Gold for the medium term. We have CPI forecasted to decrease tomorrow and IR anticipated to be cut next week. We may observe heavy volatility and opportunity in the market.
CPI
Consumer Prices have been decreasing
/cooling all summer
24'
Labor Market began strong but has
progressively cooled though Summer 24'
Additionally, the Labor market began relatively
strong through Q1 and Q2 24' but has eased into
Q3
Interest Rates have remained the same through
the summer 24' and remain unchanged since Sept 23'
BTC.........Is it Accumulation or Distribution?????Price is with a range from 72k to 58k, with price pushing lower and trading within the 66k lvl. With the FED holding rates at 5.50% and signaling that it may hold rates at current lvls for longer, it is hitting the crypto market. There is a lot of self-fulling prophecy out there about when the FED will cut rates, with some looking at the timeframe being in September. There is a FED rate decision in July which could set the stage for the September Rate Decision. Before then, the FOMC Minutes will be coming out, along with another NFP and inflation rate reading. With traders and investors wanting to see some reprieve and a stronger FED Dot Plot pointing at 2 or more rate hikes for the year, a lower printing on the NFP and inflation and a slowing economy, will give some cheer to the market and push BTC higher. But on the other side, strong economic printing and inflation stagnating and staying where it is at or rising, will likely sweep the legs of crypto and cause price to fall. The US economy (whether you believe so or not) data is showing that there is no need to start reducing rates as of yet. GDP is around 3%, unemployment isn't to bad. Wage Growth is still up there near 5%. Inflation is still above 3% and the FED is reducing its balance sheet.
The technicals are showing mixed data which could keep price from finding a trajectory until a solid catalyst comes out. The daily chart is showing price is form either a cup and handle or a double top. If the cup and handle pattern is correct then some type of strong catalyst came out (likely the NFP printed a extremely weak number, inflation dropped considerably, a string of bad US economy data) and had enough force to break out of the very strong 72k resistance. If that resistance is broken with enough force to push it up to 75k pretty quickly, there isn't much to stop it. But if the double top is correct, then price will likely push to the 62k and test the 60k a few times before breaking below it. If the 58k is broken and price is able to hold at the 57k for a few days to a week, then price will likely drop further, below the 55k.
Data is going to be the driving point for what price will do. If data keeps printing good and bad, then it will likely cause confusion for traders and investors and they will likely take the course of exiting. There are some prominent players out there like Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) and other advocates of BTC (Robert Kiyosaki) that are likely to stay in and potentially keep price from tumbling greatly; but it still depends when the masses and hedge funds want to start piling in.
I am thinking that if BTC does drop and hits below the 55k, there is likely to be a huge spike in buying up BTC as the self-fulling prophecy will be strong. The catalyst is likely to be when the FED will start reducing rates as eventually the economy will need some assistance. But the real question, is if the economy does push into a recession, will there be another case of QE and Stimulus pushed out (bailouts) if inflation is still around 2.5%-3%?
Either way, I am still building a position on BTC even if it pushes below the 50k lvl.
#BEPL an Hidden GEM looking to Shine like a STAR #superchartzKey Levels:
Support: 145 CL
Resistance: 165 to 170 CL
Technicals:
Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd has a market cap of ₹ 3,768 Cr and a current price of ₹ 151, nearing its 52-week high of ₹ 164 and well above its low of ₹ 81.6. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 20.6, slightly above the industry P/E of 19.9, indicating a relatively fair valuation. It offers a dividend yield of 2.56% and a price to book value of 4.09. The company’s EPS stands at ₹ 7.33, and it has achieved a notable 44.0% return over the past three months, though its three-year return is a modest 4.85%. The enterprise value is ₹ 3,560 Cr, with a CMP/FCF ratio of 18.0, and it maintains a Piotroski score of 7.00, suggesting a strong financial position.
Fundamentals
Business Overview: Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd manufactures and sells ABS and SAN resins, among other plastics. ABS resins contribute significantly to the company’s revenues.
Revenue Breakup FY23:
ABS: 92.6%
SAN: 1.74%
Trading Sales: 5.68%
R&D Achievements: Development of 16 new grades with improved properties, and commercialization of 6 of them. Development of 125+ new color grades with 36 commercialized.
JV with Nippon: 50:50 JV with Nippon A&L Inc. for expanding business in Styrenics Resins.
Manufacturing Capabilities:
Two facilities in Abu Road, Rajasthan, and Satnoor, MP with a total capacity of 75,000 TPA.
Capacity utilization at 97% in FY23.
Capacity Expansion: Plans to expand ABS and SAN capacity to 145,000 TPA by March 2026, with an approved Capex of 500 Cr delayed due to COVID-19.
Financial Ratios:
ROCE: 24.4%
ROE: 18.1%
Return on Assets: 16.2%
Sales: ₹ 1,267 Cr.
OPM: 17.1%
Current Ratio: 7.30
Debt to Equity: 0.00
Inference:
Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd exhibits strong technical indicators with a significant recent price increase and a healthy dividend yield. Its fundamental aspects show robust business operations, particularly in the ABS segment, supported by strategic R&D and a significant capacity expansion plan. The company's financial health is strong with high ROCE, ROE, and zero debt, indicating efficient management and potential for growth, especially with its focus on the automotive industry and support from its JV with Nippon.
Collecting Rollover while the TRY RangesThe CBRT has raised rates from 8.5% in June 2023 to currently standing at 50%. There was a recent CBRT meeting where rates where held at 50%. There has been a roll coaster for inflation YoY which was below 20% in 2020, rose as high as 36% in 2021, pushed up to 85.50% in 2022, dropped in 2023 to around 38% at its lowest, then pushed higher to standing at 69.8% currently. It is projected that inflation will push above the 70% lvl this year and eventually cap out and start pushing lower. The Lira is being hit hard and has lost over 80% of its value over five years due to the unorthodox method the President implemented.
But with this said, there are things going for the TRY, which is a nice carry trade (I'm in it to win it...corny (yeah I know)), with around an 18%-27% annualized gain (fluctuates), this could be some serious gains (and price has been ranging, so that is good). With the FED potentially go to lower rates in September and with the CBRT having rates at 50%, this could cause the TRY to either keep ranging or eventually push lower. But the CBRT might have to raise rates higher in order to fight inflation that is almost 20% higher than its interest rate. This makes the 30 lvl seem that much more plausible to be hit. Additionally, price is trading towards the 32 lvl and has attempted to trade below the 30 lvl a couple of times. So another hit to the 30 lvl support could potentially push it to my price target of around 27 (mean while I'll be able to collect some rollover). A standard lot holding this pair could bring in around $49 a day (depending on the rate for that day) which is a decent amount. The margin requirement for this pair, at least with my broker is 1:4, which means this pair is highly volatile and risky.
This pair can move thousands of pips in a matter of seconds and the spreads are sometimes outrageous. But, around a 1.2 micro lot would be less than $375 in margin, each pip would be a $0.01 move, and rollover per day earned would be around $0.56 a day.
The is a good chance that price will stay were it is at and push lower. The 33-35 lvl is the cap, but for price to push as high as 35, there would have to some strong catalysts to make that happen. I think this is all a self-fulling prophecy with all waiting to see when the FED will make its move. For now, the plan is to keep building in this pair, collect rollover, and wait until at least the 30 lvl is hit to make another decision on whether I want to see it play through to the 27 lvl.
Mexico gives a sign of lifeAfter staying over a month at the lowest levels of the year, almost 10% down for the year, but finally the market has been able to recover. But the fundamental data that has been pushing this move up is quite bizarre. Perhaps we are out of the water and I hope so as some other positions in Mexican stocks will be affected by the performance of this recovery. So far the recent move looks promising as it has clearly broken above the 25MA which will now serve as support as price attempts to climb into a higher deviation. Successfully breaking above the 200MA would place the index out of trouble for the coming time. Let's hope for the best and If the USA rides into euphoria, perhaps Mexico can ride along as well.
Additional to the analysis here, I give a great visual description of what my indicators tell me and how I read them. The same is true for the short term deviation, which helps me see the finer movements of price action.
I think it might be safe to sell soon (temporarily, at least)
If we look to the left, gold would have completely reversed the move it created last week Friday for NFP. Thus gold has now gone somewhat bearish which means sellers are interested.
If you look at the area circled (in purple) there would have been sellers interested at that level.
Gold literally just took out that area.
Any sellers who had sold around the circled area would have likely had stops above that level and now would be no more.
HOWEVER,
The reason I said it may be safe to sell (SOON) is because of this, the fact that price is coming back up again, if it were safe to sell, it wouldn't be coming back up to give traders a better opportunity to sell.
Due to this I'd be extra careful of selling OR buying at this time.
#QTK Testing Platform Coin Set to Surge 20–30x in Bull Market!🟢QuantCheck (QTK) is a platform made for testing cryptocurrency trading strategies. It helps traders and investors improve their approaches by letting them see how their strategies would have performed in the past. Think of it like a time machine for trades. With just 120.75 million tokens available, it has the potential to grow a lot. I've been using it and find it really helpful. They recently launched their token, and I believe it could be as big as AITECH.
I've invested a good amount in it because the product works well and the tokenomics look promising.
Current Price: Approximately $0.7
Accumulation Zone: $0.70 to $0.75
Short-term Target (4 to 8 weeks): $2 to $5
Mid-term Targets (3 to 6 months): $5 to $12
Long-term Target: $20 to $30
What do you think about the future of QTK? Please share your technical and fundamental analysis insights in the comments below.
Will Aston Martin return to its former glory ? LSE:AML
Aston Martin shares are down around 35% since the beginning of 2024. Shares continues to decline since august 2023 what´s around another 30% (65% from august 2023 till now). Aston Martin shares don´t look fresh even from wider perspective as you can see the historic chart.
Company itself has occurred in kind of transition since Lawrence Stroll became executive chairman in early 2020 with 16,7% stake in the company. Moreover he re-branded F1 team Racing Point as the Aston Martin F1 Team in 2021. He´s really into it.
Briefly about Aston Martin F1 Team 🏎️:
- Lawrence Stroll´s given his son every opportunity to become an F1 driver. He became a stable part of F1
- Stroll said Aston Martin sees its first victory in F1 this year
- building new Aston Martin factory
Company signed new CEO Adrian Hallmark as a part of transition. Former Chairman and CEO of Bentley Motors will replace Amedeo Felisa no later than 1st October 2024.
Aston Martin also announced the delivery of four new models in 2024 (Vantage, upgraded DBX707, V12 flagship sports car and more) which would power growth in the second half of the year and beyond.
All these news sounds good. ✔️ However the finances don´t look so great.
Aston Martin´s still BLEEDING. 💉
- widening losses in the first quarter due to stopped production of its core models ahead of a launch a new vehicles
- revenue fell 10% to 267.7£
- debt increased 20% to 1.04£
- wholesale volumes slumped by 35% in Americas, by 30% in the U.K., by 14% in Asia-Pacific and by 17% in the wider Europe, ME and Africa region
Will Aston Martin shine again ? Well, it seems that only time will tell us whether they´ll succeed
Fun fact:
Aston Martin officially opened new "Aston Martin Residences Miami", an ultra-luxury brand´s first real estate project.
You can read more about the project at official Aston Martin page.
Sources:
cnbc.com
astonmartin.com
XAU blueprint Using different analysis procedures, I am keen to publish this broken down xau swing movement which portrays a logical full liquidity sweep along the indicated zones after establishing a "rally-up", as well as the currently forming base before we see the drop thereby clearing the liquidity below .
Do you still not understand? You can always leave a comment below for further explanation 👍
SONAE: Fundamental figures too good to overlook. Time to buy?Fundamental Analysis
EBITDA: +7.2% YoY (to €990M in 2023)
Margin: 11.8% (-0.2 points YoY)
Net Income Group Share = 357 (+6.3% YoY)
PER: 1680 / 357 = 4.71 (heavily undervalued considering below data and historical PERs)
Net Gearing (Net Debt To Equity Ratio, ): 526/3462 = 0.15 (15%, Prudent)
Total Debt To Equity Ratio: 5383 / 3462 = 1.55 (around 1 to 1.5 is healthy according to British Business Bank's article "Debt to equity ratios for healthy businesses")
Current ratio: 2010/2502= 0.80 (not healthy and almost unchanged with respect to 2022, see next line. According to Wall Street Prep, 1.5 to 3.0 is healthy)
Net Debt to Ebitda = 526 / 990 = 0.53
Working Capital = -1220M€, keeps being negative. Very interesting article from eFinanceManagement explains the Advantages of Negative Working Capital for a cash-rich company whose operating cycle is fast (it may mean that they can bargain very well with their suppliers who provide the funds and the flexible time limit to pay).
Prev Current ratio (2022): 1938/2465 = 0.79
Proposed dividend for 2023: 0.05639€
EPS = 357M€ / 2000M = 0.18€/share (ATH?)
Current dividend yield = 6.19%
Dividend Payout Ratio = x 100 = 31%
Free cash flow Dividend payout ratio = x 100 = 60%
Technical Analysis
There was a disjoint channel happening since July 2022 on the Daily Graph in which the share price dropped out in the lower end in December 2023. Since the company has very good fundamentals, the possibility of an inverse H&S could be around the corner, having an interesting point of entry at 0.78-0.81. However, the share price is already heavily undervalued considering the fundamental analysis previously done. The daily RSI (14) bounced back in March 2023 from below 30 directly to the upper band at 70 indicating the possibility of a continuation of share price upward movement up to +20%. Therefore, it is up to the investor to decide whether at current prices (0.85-0.88€) is already worth the risk (if the 0.78€ ever gets touched and then bounces back up, the drawdown risk would be -11.4%).
Finally, it is expected that on May the company will pay the dividend. Therefore, the share price may re-adjust its value upwards in April before the dividend is paid and the share price is subsequently slashed down again.
Have a great week ahead.
EMAMI LTD SWING TRADE FOR COMING 3-6 MONTHS1.Bullish Chart Pattern is Forming on Higher TF of Weekly & Monthly
2. Kind Of H&S Pattern is getting structured
3. Currently Trading at Monthly Demand Zone of 450-460
4. Filled a gap on Daily TF
5. Bullish Engulfing on Daily TF with Heavy Volume
6. Fundamentals and company business is intact and showing growth consistently with Profits
7. Share Holding Pattern is also strong among big players & Institutions.
Buy @ 460-465
Stop Loss - 445
Target- 1st- 600 2nd- 700 & 3rd & Final- 900
View Holding For Next 3-9 Months
EURUAD I Detailed analysis ahead of AUD Cash Rate ReportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video!
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Apollo Hospitals - Management Quality and Economic MoatNSE:APOLLOHOSP
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd, a prominent healthcare service provider in India, has shown significant management quality and a strong economic moat.
Management Quality:
Strategic Growth and Diversification: Apollo Hospitals has focused on expanding its services, including elective surgeries and diagnostics. This diversification and expansion into various healthcare segments highlight effective strategic planning.
Financial Performance: The company has demonstrated robust financial growth over the years. Notably, there has been a substantial increase in net sales, EBITDA, and PAT (Profit After Tax), indicating a healthy financial status. This growth trajectory reflects strong operational capabilities and a successful business model.
Operational Efficiency: The efficient operation of Apollo Hospitals is evident from the significant YoY growth in its Hospital segment and the Pharmacy business. The company has also entered into a 10-year commercial agreement with Amazon India, which is a strategic move to enhance its reach and operational efficiency.
Economic Moat:
Market Position and Brand Recognition: Apollo Hospitals is well-recognized in the healthcare industry, which contributes to its competitive advantage and customer loyalty.
Integrated Business Model: The company's integrated business model, covering a wide range of services from primary to tertiary health requirements, strengthens its position in the healthcare sector.
Operational Network: Apollo Hospitals' extensive operational network fuels its business growth, enabling it to serve a broad customer base effectively.
Strengths and Weaknesses:
Strengths:
Strong operational performance and network.
Growth initiatives that indicate potential for future expansion and development.
Weaknesses:
A noted decrease in working capital, which could impact business growth.
Challenges such as the dearth of healthcare professionals and stringent industry regulations.
In summary, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd exhibits strong management quality, marked by effective strategic planning, robust financial performance, and efficient operations. The company's economic moat is underpinned by its market position, integrated business model, and extensive operational network. While there are strengths in its operational performance and growth initiatives, the company must address issues related to working capital and navigate the challenges posed by regulatory environments and workforce management
BTC Long-Term Hello everyone, I invite you to check the long-term view of the situation of BTC in pair with USDT. For this purpose, we will start by defining the main downward trend line using the yellow line, from which the price, after going up, began to create the current upward trend channel marked in blue.
Going further, using the Fib Retracement grid, which should be spread from the last price peak to the bottom, we will determine a very strong resistance at $48,634 at 0.618 Fib, the so-called golden Fibon point, at which the price had a pre-halving correction in previous cycles.
Further, taking into account the latest local movement, we will spread the trend based fib extension grid, thanks to which we can expand the resistance to the resistance zone from $46,729 to $48,634. This is a zone with very strong resistance on the way to the new ATH.
Looking the other way, you should determine the support points when the price starts to recover, similarly here, from the price bottom, we will spread the Fib Retracement grid and determine the support at the level of $34,566, and the second one at the level of $27,297. At this point, taking into account the recent increase, we will again unfold the fib retracement grid, thanks to which we can see additional support at the level of $37,990, and the support lower can be extended to the support zone from $34,566 to $33,092.
Please look at the RSI indicator, which shows that there is a lot of room for further price recovery, and if we look at the STOCH indicator, it also shows room for recovery.
Bajaj Finance - Management Quality & Economic MoatNSE:BAJFINANCE
Bajaj Finance Ltd, one of India's largest and most diversified Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), has exhibited robust management quality and developed a significant economic moat in the financial services sector.
Management Quality:
Strategic Growth: Bajaj Finance Ltd has shown a consistent focus on strategic growth and resilience, particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the disruptions caused by the pandemic, the company maintained a nuanced strategy on acquisition and underwriting across its businesses. This adaptability reflects strong managerial foresight and capability.
Financial Performance: In FY2022, Bajaj Finance recorded a 29% growth in assets under management (AUM) and a 59% growth in profit after tax on a consolidated basis. The company managed to achieve this impressive growth despite disruptions in business and elevated credit costs.
Capital Adequacy and Risk Management: Bajaj Finance remains well-capitalized with a capital-to-risk weighted asset ratio (CRAR) of 27.22% as of March 31, 2022. This is among the best for large NBFCs in India. The company's robust risk management practices have resulted in a strong portfolio quality, with Gross NPA at 1.60% and Net NPA at 0.68%, among the lowest in the industry.
Operational Efficiency: The company's operational efficiency is highlighted by its diverse customer base, digital transformation, and omnichannel strategy. This approach has enhanced customer experience and contributed to business growth.
Economic Moat:
Market Position and Sectoral Importance: As an NBFC, Bajaj Finance has become an integral part of India's financial sector. Its assets, worth more than ₹54 lakh crore as of March 31, 2021, constitute about 25% of the balance sheet size of the banking sector.
Rapid Asset Growth: Over the last five years, NBFCs' assets have grown at a cumulative average growth rate of 17.9%, with Bajaj Finance being a key contributor.
Customer Expansion: Bajaj Finance's customer franchise grew significantly, adding 2.21 million new customers in Q4FY22 alone. This growth in customer base is a testament to the company's strong market penetration and customer retention strategies.
Diversification and Innovation: The company has diversified its product offerings and continued to innovate, leveraging its understanding of regional dynamics and customer preferences. This diversification has enabled it to tap into various market segments effectively.
Strengths and Weaknesses:
Strengths:
High growth rates anticipated by analysts in the coming years.
High profitability due to outperforming net margins.
Frequent upward revisions of sales forecasts.
Strong analyst recommendations and upwardly revised price targets.
Weaknesses:
High valuations in earnings multiples.
High valuation levels compared to the size of its balance sheet.
Limited generosity in shareholder compensation.
Conclusion
In summary, Bajaj Finance Ltd demonstrates strong management quality characterized by strategic growth initiatives, robust financial performance, and effective risk management. Its economic moat is underpinned by its significant market position, rapid asset growth, customer expansion, and product diversification. The company's strengths in maintaining high profitability and adapting to market changes are counterbalanced by concerns about its high valuation levels and shareholder compensation policies.
CHFJPY I Technical & fundmental forecastWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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USDJPY I Bullish USD unemployment claims long from supportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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BTC Long-Term 1DChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the situation of BTC in the USDT pair, taking into account the one-day interval. Let's start by defining the downtrend line that has been broken out with a white line, and then we can mark the uptrend line in the same way. Then, using the yellow line, we will determine the upward trend line, which is at a slightly higher level than the trend line itself.
Looking at the recent dynamic increases, it is worth checking where the price should resist further increases. And here, after deploying the Fib Retracement tool, we have a clearly visible strong resistance zone from $41,335 to $48,294, which is where the BTC price enters. Only when we manage to get out of this zone and positively test it, should the path towards the previous ATH be opened. at $68,488.
At this point, it is also worth checking where the most important support points are in a situation when the market starts to turn and we see a correction. Here you can see possible resistance around $36,000, but much more significant is the strong resistance zone from $37,737 to $28,638, if this zone is broken further we may see equally strong resistance around $25,540.
Let us also remember about the EMA Cross 50 and 200 indicator, which, when turned on, allows us to check the position of maintaining a strong upward trend. It is worth observing this indicator, because in a situation where we start a correction, it can help us determine where such a correction will end.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that the collected energy is used for growth and there is still some left for possible continuation, on the RSI indicator we are again approaching the upper limit, but when we look at the STOCH indicator, we will immediately see a clearly overheated indicator, which may lead to a price recovery.
NZDUSD I Bullish USD unemployment claims it will come downWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Gold's sharp rise at the start of the weekMonday 27 November 2023, Asian session, gold rose significantly until it touched 2018, making an increase of +$16 from the open price. after October prices failed to break above 2000. This early week we traded gold above 2000 (last time in May). It is not surprising that the movement of gold was predicted last week, when US data was not strong enough to strengthen DXY and 10YT. Traders is showing a response to the Fed's future policy direction to end the cycle of increasing interest rates and start easing next year. a weaker USD makes gold cheaper against currencies.
We can call this week FOMC week because starting today (Tuesday) many Fed officials will provide statements regarding macroeconomic conditions.
On the other hand, this week there will also be the release of GDP and PCE data as a benchmark for the rate of inflation. Of course, this week will be volatile week because there are unwritten data (Fed Statement) and release of written data that is needed to analyze prices.
IMO, there is room for consolidation that needs to be considered, including 2016, 2009, 2005, and the psychological number 2000. if failed break above 2016 we will see the possibility that price will consolidate or retrace to that key level. if pass 2016 there is 2020 or 2030 as nearest resistance.