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BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level and are higher than the July level when we had the 10k break out. This not only is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs, but also indicates a strong support at 10k. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. Yes, $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap (let’s put aside the whole thing about how BTC mkt cap is inflated, for now). However, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. The black stars in the chart above indicate the past incidents when the price gets close to the active group’s purchase price. These were overall great swing trading entries with fairly good R:R setups. The trend will switch to the bear side indicating an exit once the price drops further from these areas. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Currently, the margin market is overly bearish (across different exchanges, see chart below), and open interest is picking up. This indicates another short-term long scalp opportunity. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, the trend remains bullish. Do note CME positions are for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. In early bull runs (and when there’s still time to the future maturity), it’s also in the whales’ interest to push the price down, lowering average cost. Check out the March resemblance. Similar occurrence for the 6k to 3k drop (but less CME oriented). 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap: 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Many are now aware and talking about this opened gap, but the problem is the more people getting onboard means the less likelihood of the event happening. Key Technicals: 1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below here, trend will likely turn bearish). Nothing new this week. 2. Elliot wave: wave (ii) of III potentially over at this point. Wave (ii) as a zigzag. BTC doesn’t tend to rise in a steep line after a sharp drop, so we’ll likely consolidate for a while. 3. RSI neutral: As expected last week, we attempted at the MAs, leading to a bullish week. Currently, I don’t think much could be said about the daily RSI. It’s failing the MAs but finding support around 40 – bull market support. 4. MACD bullish: potential up-cross from the negative side soon. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
93
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. (Thanks to NxjaUNHaCucnyxaB’s insightful comment last week.) 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral to overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. (Note: The R:R for betting trend changes simply doesn’t appeal to me. Yes, you can bet it every time and never miss a large movement, but you also need to deal with the 30-40% win rate and high operational/execution risks.) 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: A ridiculous amount of longs were present at the 11.5k level, and a "likely long squeeze alert" appeared before the drop to 10k. Currently, the margin market is overly bearish, but not enough people is on board with the “bearishness” so we do need the open interest to pick up a bit to fuel an ideal short squeeze. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, last week’s drop doesn’t impact this group turning bullish after 3 months of indecisiveness. The position is for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. Check out the March resemblance. 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25 from 9.6k to 9.9k. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Key Technicals: 1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below this level, trend will likely turn bearish). 2. Elliot wave: likely in wave (ii) of III. Wave (ii) currently counted as a zigzag and is potentially finished. 3. RSI neutral to bearish: Failing the RSI MAs and in a bearish trend. However, for the short-term, an upward attempt at the MAs is needed. Meaning I'm leaning bullish for the week ahead. 4. MACD bearish: In bearish trend. No sign of up-cross yet. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
79
Buy Euro against the Australian DollarHello, this is my first analysis of the par Euro/Australian Dollar, it's beatiful to compare it. So, we have a consolidation forming in this par, but with expectative so bullish, so the trend is sleep and we wait it. So, in H4 timeframe we see that Euro show a neutral news, as Reserve Bank of Australia have good news for this weeks based in the Australia's economy recovery. So, we hope a buy of Euro!!! Also, for tomorrow, I will going to make a special technical analysis of this par about the weekly and monthly timeframe based in the situation and condition of the market based in the European Union and Australia Ministery (Australia's Governor) Fundamentals Keys: 1. GDP numbers sink the AUD as focus shifts to the EUR and the Greenback in the par EUR/AUD 2. GDP numbers from Australia's economy may have veered from the Reserve Bank of Australia base scenario, weighing on the Aussie ahead of stats from Germany and United States 3. In the 2nd quarter GDP numbers provided direction early on. In the 2nd quarter, Australia's economy contracted by 7%, following at 0.3% contraction in hte first quarter. 4. The economist had forecast at 6%. This mean the largest fall on record since 7% of correction of Australia's economy, signaling a low recovery while the famous par AUD/USD is gaining and strenghten its value, Aussie it's be recovery as Australia's economy is recovery soon!!!
Long
by harisonhbn9718
2
Good mid term opportunityQtum has great fundamentals after a month from now ... New #Qtum Mainnet Release Qtum v0.19.1 - Hard Fork - Mandatory update - Offline #Staking !! Also, Qtum is now on voting list for tokens which will be listed on Huobi Japan ! So we can enter now between 2400 and 2470 Short term targets: TP1 2563 6.7% TP2 2680 11% Mid term targets: TP1 2890 17% TP2 3057 27% TP3 3300 37.5% TP4 3700 54% All targets can be touched easily after the new updates ... And it can make huge profit like *2 *3 or even *5 on long term as it has great project ... *Make your own analysis, and good luck*
Long
by kriptomaster
A war is brewing in GE and the battle lines have been drawn.Fundamentals: Market Cap 57.66B Income 3.34B Sales 87.87B P/E 17.48 P/FCF 27.75 EPS this Y +99.8% Institutions hold 61.98 Annual Dividend of $0.04 Short float of 1.01% Bearish Fundamentals: Insider Transactions -73.5% Insiders Own 0.13% Institution Transactions over the past 3 Months -0.7% ROE -16.3% Profit Margin -5.8% Debt/Eq 2.43 (shockingly high) EPS past 5Y -14.9% EPS Q/Q -663.8% Sales Q/Q -24.2% Technical Analysis Comments: A potential inverted H&S within a potential bearish channel. GE traders clearly paying attention to the pivots & confirming the battle grounds of Support 1 & Resistance 1. Good luck trading!
NYSE:GE
by ZenMode
AUDUSD Sell - Breakout AUD Fundy 930PM ESTDownwards channel formation. Watch Australia unemployment fundamentals shortly here. Expectation AUD weakness. I am only in sells in AUDUSD. If it retraces up I will sell at 0.7230 (resistance) Entry: Sell stop 10 pips below channel TP @ 0.7090 area (bottom of channel) Good luck trading! Please help like my free analysis ideas so it can benefit more people. Let me know if I can help in any way! Charles V ww.cvfxmanagement.com Trading made simple.
Short
by cvfxwealth
GBP/USD Watch for BullsGood day, snipers. Here in GBP/USD, I will only be looking for longs due to a weak dollar. Price is currently at the resistance zone but if I see a break above that zone, I will continue with a long position. Fundamental analysts keep saying that the dollar can still go down. Recently, no wicks are present on the resistance zone compared to its previous touch last June 10. Refer to the DXY chart, and if that still goes bearish, GBP/USD is a powerful long decision. Follow me on tradingview for more ideas and sniper entries. If you liked this idea please click that thumb's up. Ideas posted are not financial advise, but merely just to give insights and education for traders. Past performances do not determine future gains. As sniper traders, we tread carefully, then we take shots immediately. Join the discussion down below.
Long
by SniperFXFree
Analysis and Fundamentals: European Union climbs to Recover FundToday, Euro in H4 timeframe is show a possible drop of the price into the $1.1323 USD, but let's me explain why Euro is continue drop. First, in weekly Euro is leave at the highest point in the past time at $1.14 USD as we are now, so we could be a possible drop of 200 pips in week if EUR continue because the European Union has today bad news accomplish with this bearish armonic pattern, also to recall in H4 timeframe, we could to be into his bearish rising wedge and the experctative is so bearish that put in Euro in bad situations, all depend what make the market. So, in I put a short limit order at $1.1435 USD with a SL at $1.1488 USD and take profit at $1.1323 USD. So the only is that I hope that Euro up a little at least 24 pips to actiavate my sell order limit at $1.1435 USD. if in case doesn;t activate, I cancelled my order. Also as reference, if you see the RSI we have a bearish divergence and if you see in Weekly, you can get the higher point as in Daily too in the RSI and price action. The price action and RSI indicator show the weakness of the bulltrend in EUR, and possible futures to find down sells. Fundamentals Analysis to take in noticed: 1. The currency remained flat this morning after press reports suggested the latest round on European Union negotiations failed. 2. A commenting of Crhis Weston, head of research at pepperstone brokerage say that she think that expectations were that they weren't meeting anyway, but they muuded that there was one coming in August or September 3. Talks concerning the 750 billion Euros bill were unsuscessful. Although the countries Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden, they were satisfied with a sifferent avangement. 4. A reports suggest they are happy with allocating around 390 billion Euros as grants and the rest as low-interest rate loans. 5. While European Union leaders were making progress after 3 days of negotiations, discussions could soon fall apart 6. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has warned this could be a possibility and talks had been close to falling apart. He noted that European Union Chairman, Charles Michel was working on a news compromise proposal. 7. The European Central Banks chief Christine Lagarde noted it would be better for a leaders to agree on an ambitions package than to have a quiet deal at any cost. 8. Euro Climbs as European Union Recovery Fund Optimism ***Guys, this speculate news is the most important because as Euro climbs the market, investor are Sell Euro as there are many problemas of some countries that we need to recovery fund optimism in the European Union and that could be bad for mid-term. 9.The Euro edged higher today as traders anticipate that the European Summit discussions on a proposed 1.68 trillion of Euros to seven-years budget and covonarius recovery fund that will be resolved.
Short
by harisonhbn9718
1
EUR/JPY technical & fundamental analysisHi guys I hope you’re all very well. Here’s an idea based on both technical & fundamental analysis, please enjoy. TECHNICAL: It’s been a solid few months in the green for the Euro & a lot of traders are still quite bullish but I’m a little bit more cautious and here are my reasons. The main reason that I’m bearish right now is the fundamentals which will be described below. From a technical standpoint, I’m able to find some bearish indicators. -The main indicator for me is the previous monthly candle for June showed some huge resistance. -Another bearish indicator is the resistance being shown at one of my Fibonacci retracement levels. -The daily stochastic is in my overbought range FUNDAMENTAL: JPY is a go to currency in times of insecurity & market anxiety. The current situation surrounding a second Covid19 wave in both Europe and throughout the world may again create anxiety in the market. Japan has dealt with the crisis thus far as good as any other country. This coupled with JPY being a go to currency may increase the demand of this currency. TARGET LEVEL: 119.5 As usual, I will update immediately if my view or opinion changes in any way. Thanks so much for reading. I hope this idea can help anyone looking for an alternative opinion. Good luck to you all 🍀
Short
by DCurrencyGroup
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Overall Market Sentiment: For the entire BTC holding, the overall market sentiment is neutral with low interest. BTC has seen more bull runs after periods of low volatility, and a deeper correction might be exactly what’s needed to give the market enough strength to continue to long-term bull trend. 4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment (SOPR): This group continues to sell in profit, indicating a long-term bullish trend. 5. Margin Market Actions: With the increasing short interest on Bitmex, we might have a short squeeze coming in the very short-term, pushing us to the 9.3k – 9.6k zone. Key Technicals: 1. Daily RSI looking bearish for the mid-term. In order for the bullish trend to remain, the daily RSI needs to find support above its MAs. 2. Side way consolidation last week moved us out of the rising triangle 3. Wave developments: the rising triangle is invalidated with last week’s actions. Thus, we may have already finished the 5 Elliot waves upwards and are now in an ABC (zigzag) correction to the downside. Wave A seems to be finished and the 0.618 Fib retracement for wave A is around 9.8k. Bearish pressure is expected once this level is hit. Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! =========================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain on-chain data analysis! ===========================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
50
BTC: Don’t be bearish yet!First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Trend: Still bullish We believe the bear trend ended in December 2019. And if COVID didn’t happen, the bull trend starting point would have been the 7k range last year. Miner capitulation and on-chain volume cycles are two of the most accurate fundamental cycle measurements, and these show strong bullish signs since 7k. Is there a chance to turn to bearish trend? Yes, absolutely. However, we haven’t seen enough confirmations. Every bull-to-bear trend switch starts with a correction, but if every correction is seen as a trend switch, not much profit could be made out of the bull run. The way we are looking at this is CONSISTENTLY trading all corrections until getting stopped out on the last one. Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Overall Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is turning bearish. 4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment: Selling in profit and in bull trend. We kept picked up alerts of decreasing selling pressure in the past few days, and this is bullish for the short term. 5. Margin Market Actions Just got a potential short squeeze alert yesterday. This is bullish for the short term. 6. SPX impact: See the ideas linked at the bottom. Key Technicals: 1. Trendline crossover below (both significant as strong support and potential reversal timing) 2. Target: 10k for this week 3. Wave developments: We’ll likely keep on developing wave4 this week, fluctuating between 8.7k – 10k. 4. RSI: At key bull trend support. Also 2 strong bullish reversals occurred (price higher low + RSI lower low). Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ============================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ==============================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
24
Long over $7. Recent negative press attention seemed to wear offRECENT NEWS SDC (7.12 -7.75%): Missed expectations for Q1 EPS and revs. Q1 unique aligner shipments rose +12% yr/yr to 122,751. During its call, co noted that it shipped 10,500 aligner orders in April and between 11,000-15,000 in May; it projects the current run rate to be circa 22,000 shipments in a 30-day period. Co commented that since Q1, it has seen "robust performance" from its impression kit business despite reductions in marketing spend that amounted to approx. 90% over the past 60 days -- kit and scan volume was down by circa 40% over that span. Downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill, which sees suppressed advertising spend levels and other overhangs contributing to a slower recovery through the year for co than previously projected. 16-Jun-20 09:39 ET SDC SmileDirectClub announces product category leadership for its oral care line (8.03 +0.49) SmileDirectClub announced today that its new end-to-end oral care system leads category growth in a number of product categories in the consumer marketplace. SmileDirectClub is the top growing brand in the whitening category for 2020 with its product bright on and the power floss category with its water flosser. Additionally, the brand is the second highest growth contributor in the brush category for its electric toothbrush during the same timeframe. All of SmileDirectClub's oral care products include promotions for clear aligner therapy to remind consumers of the brand's entire suite of offerings. 27-May-20 08:40 ET WIRES On The Wires SmileDirectClub (SDC) has joined Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield's (Anthem) and Empire BlueCross BlueShield's (Empire) newly established program, Ortho@Home, a teledentistry orthodontia program designed to provide consumers with convenient, affordable and remote orthodontic care. SmileDirectClub is offering remote dental care and clear aligner therapy to users on Anthem Dental Prime and Complete networks. 18-May-20 16:47 ET SDC SmileDirectClub files $2.8 bln lawsuit against NBC for "defamatory" nightly news story (6.76 -0.10) SDC has filed a lawsuit seeking approximately $2.8 bln from NBC Universal Media and reporter Vicky Nguyen for "knowingly and intentionally making factually inaccurate, misleading and defamatory claims about the company and its platform" on an NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt report. According to SDC, NBC's February 13, 2020 ‘Nightly News' report contained more than 40 false and misleading statements about SmileDirectClub and the treatment patients receive from the hundreds of board-certified doctors who use the company's platform to treat patients. SDC claims its reputation was wrongly sullied and its business unjustly harmed as a result of the NBC story according to the suit. In the wake of NBC's report, and as a direct result of it, SDC's market cap plummeted by $950 million. SmileDirectClub is seeking to recover treble damages pursuant to Tennessee's Consumer Protection Act. SDC (6.45 +19.67%): Co was issued a patent for its SmileShop intellectual property from the USPTO; the patent, says co, "ensures no clear aligner competitor will be able to duplicate SmileDirectClub's unique model for 18 years." The patent encompasses the SmileShop concept and process. Co also announced that it is making plans to reopen its SmileShops in the US, Canada, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and Ireland beginning in May. The stock rises to one-month highs on above 3x average volume.
S
by SwingingForward