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BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann First of all, from an actuarial background (as conservative as it goes in finance), I’ve never thought one day I would be giving a bullish bias on such a strong resistance, hinting a potential breakout. Well, but here it goes. It’s rare for the market to have a prolonged short bias, which (by probability) is much a better signal to reply upon compared to long biases. Furthermore, we broke the triangle, and the twitter news, and the on-chain pickups, and some Chinese information channels we have… So, even with a $300 gap, and bearish divergences that yell a correction in the short-term, I’m going to call bullish here. At times, the short-term gain/loss becomes less significant compared to the mid to long-term potentials (by short-term, I mean within 7 days since that’s how often we publish). Also, I would highly appreciate it if you can give us some feedbacks below, regarding which portion you would like to see more analysis on, or any parts you have questions on. Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: Similar to last week, the on-chain smart money indicator is recently giving out accumulation signals. This indicates smart money has been accumulating during the past few weeks despite the price drop from 12k, and further indicates a strong support at 10k. This is a bullish sign for Q4. Price generally goes into a bullish trend when on-chain smart money accumulation is found. Can we drop in the short-term at all? If so, does that mean smart money made a dumb decision? Yes, then no. In Nov 2018, smart money accumulation is spotted at 6k, and price dropped to 3k in the next 2 months with more accumulation happening. While the BTC accumulated at 6k took an almost 50% loss, price soon rose to 12k+, generating a 2x. Grayscale: raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). Even though $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. We’ll keep an eye out for Q3 stats, which hasn’t been released yet. Aside from the Twitter (Square) $50M BTC purchase, Chinese smart money is also on the move. 2. Miner action: BTC mining difficulty is now 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level (the 11%+ difficulty adjustment was made in September). 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment remains neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still in a bull trend. As mentioned, 10.5k was hit in the past week, but the “decr. in supply” alert didn’t show up. With the current development, I wouldn’t wait for the alert for bull entry. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Daily chart speaking, the margin market has been on the bearish side since the drop to 10k. Even though mentioned often, I’ve never quite covered the significance of this situation. With longing being a much easier strategy compared to shorting, it’s much harder for the market to have a bearish sentiment compared to a bullish one (left alone the constant interest rate component). In other words, prolonged retail bullish sentiment may not turn into a bearish price action and the price may go up higher with the sentiment being more over-heated. However, prolonged retail bearish sentiment often turns into bullish price actions. We are still net bearish, which means more upward momentum. See the resemblance with early May 2019? If you don’t, you should investigate. Also, believe it or not, at the current moment, BTC is overly bearish. Yes, after an 8%+ rise in the past 72 hours. 5. Global Market Impacts: Let’s be clear. If the stock market drops 10%+, BTC will go down. For most investors, the hedge for low yield environment or political uncertainty is still gold over crypto. And even though BTC may recover quicker compared to stock indexes, the initial reaction is still likely correlated at this point. So, the question becomes, “will stock indexes drop significantly in the presence of US presidential election, potential prolonged low interest rate environment due to COVID, and the heightened tensions with China?” I do think the two main factors to watch out for are the further US fiscal stimulus and the earnings season. 6. CME Gap: Yes, there’s a $300 CME gap below us. However, given other bullish considerations, I’m not going to bet this gap closed in the coming week. Key Technicals: 1. Similar as last week, short-term resistance at 11.9k. Support now at 11.2-11.3k (past resistance). SL for long could be set around 11k. 2. Elliot wave: see chart above. 3. RSI bullish: Daily RSI looks bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are finding support above RSI’s MAs. MA up-crossed. If we do drop in price, there’s a strong support at MA & RSI trendline. 4. MACD neutral: Bearish for the short-term. Bullish for the mid to long term. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ============================================= 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ==============================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
48
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level and are higher than the July level when we had the 10k break out. This not only is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs, but also indicates a strong support at 10k. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. Yes, $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap (let’s put aside the whole thing about how BTC mkt cap is inflated, for now). However, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. The black stars in the chart above indicate the past incidents when the price gets close to the active group’s purchase price. These were overall great swing trading entries with fairly good R:R setups. The trend will switch to the bear side indicating an exit once the price drops further from these areas. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Currently, the margin market is overly bearish (across different exchanges, see chart below), and open interest is picking up. This indicates another short-term long scalp opportunity. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, the trend remains bullish. Do note CME positions are for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. In early bull runs (and when there’s still time to the future maturity), it’s also in the whales’ interest to push the price down, lowering average cost. Check out the March resemblance. Similar occurrence for the 6k to 3k drop (but less CME oriented). 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap: 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Many are now aware and talking about this opened gap, but the problem is the more people getting onboard means the less likelihood of the event happening. Key Technicals: 1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below here, trend will likely turn bearish). Nothing new this week. 2. Elliot wave: wave (ii) of III potentially over at this point. Wave (ii) as a zigzag. BTC doesn’t tend to rise in a steep line after a sharp drop, so we’ll likely consolidate for a while. 3. RSI neutral: As expected last week, we attempted at the MAs, leading to a bullish week. Currently, I don’t think much could be said about the daily RSI. It’s failing the MAs but finding support around 40 – bull market support. 4. MACD bullish: potential up-cross from the negative side soon. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
93
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. (Thanks to NxjaUNHaCucnyxaB’s insightful comment last week.) 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral to overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. (Note: The R:R for betting trend changes simply doesn’t appeal to me. Yes, you can bet it every time and never miss a large movement, but you also need to deal with the 30-40% win rate and high operational/execution risks.) 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: A ridiculous amount of longs were present at the 11.5k level, and a "likely long squeeze alert" appeared before the drop to 10k. Currently, the margin market is overly bearish, but not enough people is on board with the “bearishness” so we do need the open interest to pick up a bit to fuel an ideal short squeeze. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, last week’s drop doesn’t impact this group turning bullish after 3 months of indecisiveness. The position is for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. Check out the March resemblance. 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25 from 9.6k to 9.9k. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Key Technicals: 1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below this level, trend will likely turn bearish). 2. Elliot wave: likely in wave (ii) of III. Wave (ii) currently counted as a zigzag and is potentially finished. 3. RSI neutral to bearish: Failing the RSI MAs and in a bearish trend. However, for the short-term, an upward attempt at the MAs is needed. Meaning I'm leaning bullish for the week ahead. 4. MACD bearish: In bearish trend. No sign of up-cross yet. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
79
Buy Euro against the Australian DollarHello, this is my first analysis of the par Euro/Australian Dollar, it's beatiful to compare it. So, we have a consolidation forming in this par, but with expectative so bullish, so the trend is sleep and we wait it. So, in H4 timeframe we see that Euro show a neutral news, as Reserve Bank of Australia have good news for this weeks based in the Australia's economy recovery. So, we hope a buy of Euro!!! Also, for tomorrow, I will going to make a special technical analysis of this par about the weekly and monthly timeframe based in the situation and condition of the market based in the European Union and Australia Ministery (Australia's Governor) Fundamentals Keys: 1. GDP numbers sink the AUD as focus shifts to the EUR and the Greenback in the par EUR/AUD 2. GDP numbers from Australia's economy may have veered from the Reserve Bank of Australia base scenario, weighing on the Aussie ahead of stats from Germany and United States 3. In the 2nd quarter GDP numbers provided direction early on. In the 2nd quarter, Australia's economy contracted by 7%, following at 0.3% contraction in hte first quarter. 4. The economist had forecast at 6%. This mean the largest fall on record since 7% of correction of Australia's economy, signaling a low recovery while the famous par AUD/USD is gaining and strenghten its value, Aussie it's be recovery as Australia's economy is recovery soon!!!
Long
by harisonhbn9718
2