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Fundamentalstrategy

DXY bearish biasBeen holding onto this TA for a while now. I posted it on twitter a lot earlier, you can follow me @thecolour_red. On the chart you'll find 3 seller owned levels and one key liquidity area below that holds bullish sentiment. Currently, 100.39 has rejected price and is being challenged by buyers in the aforementioned zone. Fundamentals: -the rejection was printed before the Core Durable Goods figure release and the flow was corroborated on the DOW -additional QE will drive down the bid in the long term Sentiment: -Dollar is overvalued at the moment when compared to G7 currencies Price action: -major squeeze playing out, as you can see from the chop of last week's PA on lower TFs -more patterns printed on lower TFs Technicals: -double top and resistance holding -price currently in range (floor is the bullish area) Additional notes: -BoJ MP statement early in the week (key part of macro analysis and will add bias to global flow)
TVC:DXYShort
by madebyforex
Fundamental Case Study -Interest rate cut, boost of inflation.Fundamentals can be hard to trade and are almost always of no logical predictable direction. So how can we trade fundamental news and events? This question can be answered in many ways. However, we want to put an accent now on high impact fundamental events that are impacting an economy in the longer term, and not daily data releases/news which create almost none volatility for our interest. Each and every year there are few such events, some creating huge movements in one day/on the opening, others creating strong bullish/bearish trends in the longer term. These events can be categorized in wars, attacks, pandemics, bankruptcy, federal banks drastic decisions, and more. In this case study, we will analyze the FED's data releases due to the latest COVID-19 threats. On Tuesday, 03 March 2020 The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% at an unscheduled emergency meeting. This measure was taken due to the pandemic disturbance of the markets: "The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1‑1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy ..." - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, 5:00 PM - Mar 3, 2020 What does this mean? And how can traders benefit from this fundamental impact factor? The Federal Funds rate is the Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight, and is scheduled 8 times per year. Usually cutting or increasing the interest rate happens over a longer period of time, by 25 basis points at once. These short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. By adjusting the right interest rates, with the purpose of economic growth, the FED keeps it's inflation targets through short periods of time. Because the FOMC cut the federal funds rate, at an unscheduled emergency meeting by 50 basis points, it surprised the market and it reacted appropriately. This means drastically devaluation of the US Dollar on the short term. And Market Makers acted accordingly, selling the US Dollar. We can see on the charts a few trades we took after the data releases. In this case study, you can also see how it impacts the overall economy, creating movements on more instrument categories. GOLD, Currencies, yields, indices. If you want to further explore this case study, or learn more about fundamentals, don't hesitate to follow us on our free education blog on Instagram and shoot as a dm for further questions.
TVC:DXYEducation
by TradingExpertGroup
NZDCAD Long-Term Buy FrameworkThis is a bullish setup framework for a lesser traded pair. Please read the 'guidance' below for full value. There tends to be a lot of volatility for this pair in Nov & Dec. Based on VaR analysis, there is a decent probability of a 250+ pip bullish move over that period. And, CAD macro data has been very strong for a bit too long, so any miss in upcoming data will see a surprise trend as commercials will try to cash in against speculators. Essentially, CAD has been 'wanting to weaken' since July, but data upside surprise keeps it on life support. But fair warning: do keep in mind that Options, Futures, and COT data all suggest NZD weakness and CAD strength, so I wouldn't expect any NZDCAD bullish moves to last into next year (without changes in that data at least). I attached rough estimates for levels that will be hit at some point in the next month or so. Generally, it is unwise to forecast technical setups for this kind of horizon. There are too many geopolitical and fundamental variables to interfere with at this kind of scale, but because both currencies are attached to commodities, global trade issues, and the Chinese economy to some degree, they are not as vulnerable as something like the USDJPY or XAUUSD, for instance, which have clear 'risk on vs risk off' parameters. Small lots with large SLs and low account risk can make these fun experiments from time to time.
Long
by CountofCoins