Where BTC is heading, a test of the current correction.Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on the BTC pair to USDT, taking into account the four-hour interval and the one-day interval. First, we will use the white line to mark the first uptrend line, and then the second uptrend line, as you can see the price stays above them. We further see that in the current cycle the price is based on the local uptrend line, a similar situation took place in the previous uptrend cycle, until the price went down.
After unfolding the Fib Retracement grid, we can check how strong the correction was and here we see that we have retraced to a strong resistance zone at the so-called Fib golden point of 0.618. Going further, we will develop the Fib Retracement grid on the current growth cycle, thanks to which we can mark the next support spot at the price of $ 26654, while comparing the current cycle to the previous one, we can see a drop around the strong support zone from $ 25252 to $ 23927. When the price breaks through the support zone, the next strong support is at $ 22040.
We will now switch the chart to a one-day interval, which will make it easier for us to identify resistance points that the price will have to face first.
And here we can see that the price has broken through a very strong resistance at 0.786 Fib, however, the attempt to retest the resistance failed and we have entered a correction period, only when price moves back above the resistance level and then positively tests it will we be able to see the resistance attack attempt at a price of $ 32389.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that after using the energy we are in a period of reaccumulation, the MACD indicator indicates entering a local downtrend, while the RSI shows a visible rebound, but at this point it must be made clear that there is still room for the price to go down to the previously mentioned levels. It is worth watching the price level in conjunction with the RSI indicator, taking into account the example scenario that the price will go down to the first current support and the RSI will indicate a rebound to or above the lower end of the range, giving us a greater probability of the end of the correction.
Finally, when we turn on the Cross 50 and 200 EMAs, we can clearly see the place of return to the uptrend after a long bear market, moreover, the current correction at this moment does not indicate a threat regarding the possible continuation of the bull market.
Fundamentalstrategy
Fundamentals & Technical AnalysisHow to apply fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement your technical analysis and trading strategy
Fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends are important tools for traders who want to understand the underlying forces that drive the market. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses on the price action and patterns of the market. By combining both approaches, traders can gain a more comprehensive and balanced perspective on the market and improve their trading strategy.
Fundamental analysis of the macroeconomic environment involves studying the economic, political, and social factors that affect the supply and demand of an asset. Some of the most relevant fundamental indicators are:
- Gross domestic product (GDP): This measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country in a given period. It reflects the economic growth and health of a country. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy and a higher demand for its currency and assets.
- Inflation: This measures the change in the average price level of goods and services over time. It affects the purchasing power of money and the interest rates. A moderate inflation indicates a healthy economy with stable growth. A high inflation indicates an overheated economy with excessive money supply and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Interest rates: This measures the cost of borrowing money. It affects the profitability of investments and the exchange rates. A higher interest rate indicates a tighter monetary policy and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A lower interest rate indicates a looser monetary policy and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Trade balance: This measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. It reflects the competitiveness and demand for a country's goods and services in the global market. A positive trade balance indicates a trade surplus and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A negative trade balance indicates a trade deficit and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
To complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can use fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to identify the long-term direction and strength of the market, as well as potential opportunities and risks. For example, suppose a trader wants to trade EUR/USD, which is the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar. The trader can use technical analysis to identify the support and resistance levels, trend lines, chart patterns, indicators, and signals on different time frames. The trader can also use fundamental analysis to assess the economic conditions and outlook of both the eurozone and the US, as well as their relative interest rates, inflation rates, trade balances, and other factors that affect their currencies.
Suppose the trader observes that the eurozone has a higher GDP growth rate, lower inflation rate, positive trade balance, and stable interest rate than the US. The trader can infer that the eurozone has a stronger economy than the US, which implies a higher demand for the euro than the US dollar. The trader can also observe that the EUR/USD is in an uptrend on the daily chart, with higher highs and higher lows, supported by a rising moving average. The trader can conclude that the fundamental analysis confirms the technical analysis, which suggests that EUR/USD is likely to continue to rise in the long term.
The trader can then use technical analysis to find an optimal entry point to buy EUR/USD. For example, suppose the trader sees that EUR/USD is retracing from a recent high to test a support level at 1.2000, which coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a rising trend line. The trader can also see that there is bullish divergence between the price and an oscillator indicator such as RSI or MACD, which indicates that the downward momentum is weakening. The trader can decide to buy EUR/USD at 1.2000, with a stop loss below 1.1900 and a target at 1.2200.
By applying fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and enhance their trading performance.
If you are stock trading, you should consider the following fundamental indicators which are all readily available as trends on the TradingView platform:
- ROE (Return on Equity): This indicator measures how effective a company is in generating profits for its shareholders. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the shareholders' equity. A high ROE indicates that the company is using its resources efficiently and creating value for its owners.
- EPS (Earnings Per Share): This indicator measures how much profit a company makes per share of its common stock. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the number of outstanding shares. A high EPS indicates that the company is profitable and can potentially pay dividends or reinvest in its growth.
- DYR (Dividend Yield Ratio): This indicator measures how much dividend a company pays per share of its common stock relative to its earnings. It is calculated by dividing the total dividends by the net income or the dividend per share by the earnings per share. A high DYR indicates that the company is rewarding its shareholders with a steady income stream and has confidence in its future prospects.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow): This indicator measures how much cash a company generates from its operations after deducting capital expenditures. It is calculated by subtracting the capital expenditures from the operating cash flow. A high FCF indicates that the company has enough cash to pay its debts, invest in new projects, or return money to its shareholders.
- PEG (Projected Earnings Growth): This indicator measures how fast a company's earnings are expected to grow in the future relative to its current price. It is calculated by dividing the price-to-earnings ratio by the annual earnings growth rate. A low PEG indicates that the company is undervalued and has strong growth potential.
These fundamental indicators can help traders to identify stocks that are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced based on their financial performance and future prospects. They can also help traders to compare different stocks within the same industry or across different industries and sectors.
Daily BTC 1DChart - LONGTERMHello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First of all, using the yellow line, it is worth marking the downtrend that the price has overcome and we are currently moving in the uptrend channel marked with blue lines.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here we see that we have the first support at HKEX:27 ,017, when the price goes lower, the second support is at $24,821, then the third support is at HKEX:23 ,030, and below we have the fourth very strong support at HKEX:21 ,181.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the FIB Retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we will mark the resistance zone where the price is currently from HKEX:28 ,000 to HKEX:31 ,754, when it manages to break it, the price may encounter resistance at HKEX:35 ,625, then resistance at HKEX:41 ,172 and a fourth resistance at HKEX:48 ,221.
It is worth paying attention to the EMA Cross 50 and 200, as we can see when the yellow line of the EMA Cross 50 crossed the blue lines of the EMA Cross 200 from below, this confirmed the entry into an uptrend after a very long decline.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we still have the energy to continue the move, the MACD indicator indicates a return to the uptrend, while the RSI has touched the upper limit of the range, which may affect the price going sideways or give a small rebound.
USDHKD Could this be the next Swiss Franc?The Swiss Franc used to be pegged to the Euro until 2015. The ECB went on a money printing spree with its own QE and the SNB could not sustain maintaining the peg. So it decided to remove the peg and the Swiss Franc strengthened against the Euro more than 20%. This caught a bunch of traders by surprise (mainly because the SNB said it was committed to maintaining the peg) and even collapsed the FXCM branch in the US. Now, will this happen to the HKD peg? Maybe. But the difference here is going long this pair will have you gain positive rollover and if the peg is removed, then price will likely appreciate. If price ranges, then you will be gaining around 1.77% a day, which is pretty decent (especially if utilizing margin. Be careful with using a large amount of margin). As this pair ranges and the FED keeps rates where they are at, with a standard lot, you'll be seeing around $4.85 a day. That is HKEX:1 ,770.25 a year and since the margin requirement for the HKD is around HKEX:10 ,000 for a standard lot, that is over a 17% increase (a little less because you will need more to add some buffer room or you'll get hit with a margin call). But if built correctly, this could be a nice play. I have an entry at the bottom of the band in order to get price at a good lvl. From here I can just hold.
Remember, these are just my thoughts and what I am doing. I could be wrong so conduct your own research and analysis. Have some good trading out there.
CABLE LONG TERM BUY SWINGHere it is Folks, the moment we have all been waiting for
After months of testing and retesting the upper bounds of the 1.24 area. it appears that CABLE has broken out and will now begin a very solid and consistent BULL SWING. Looking forward to buying and buying again on every dip.
Fundamentally this is being set up by the incoming US recession and data weakness is starting to slowly creep into the numbers. There is nowhere to go for this currencypair but up.
***POTENTIAL FAKE OUT DURING NFP TOMORROW POSSIBLE, OVERALL OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED REGARDLESS OF ANY DEEP RETEST DURING NFP***
EURUSD BOUNCE ON RESISTANCE ?As we seen the price already achieved at the level where the daily confirmation given, Thus it just needed more confirmation on the lowest timeframe to be looking for. Several news about JOLTS Opening and NFP will be decide the movement of USD. Happy trading for this week. CHEERS!!
Nordex: Profit Warning from May 2022 underestimated actual costsRECAP: Back in May 25, 2022, Nordex issued a profit warning and its stock was down -17.05%. The new estimates where:
FY2022 PROFIT WARNING ESTIMATES FROM MAY 2022 (Source: Nordex's IR website section):
– FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.2 to 5.7 billion
– FY2022 EBITDA-margin: minus 4 to 0 percent, including all one-off effects
- Capital expenditure: EUR 180 million
- Working capital ratio: below -7%
In March 31st, 2023 investors got to know the actual figures of the company.
FY2022 ACTUALS (Source: Nordex's IR website section):
– FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.6936 billion
– FY2022 EBITDA-margin: -4.3%
- Capital expenditure: EUR 204.8 million
- Working capital ratio: -10.2%
Capital expenditure and staff costs were up 21.4% and 18.5%, respectively.
The company suffers from delays in project intakes.
Overall, I reckon Consolidated sales were in the upper boundary of the profit warning but costs increased dramatically, probably due to inflation and related supply-chain issues that are still not fully corrected from China today, in 2023.
USOIL further increase? 31.03.2023It seems that the price of US Crude oil is breaking more resistances and moves further upwards.
Not suspiring since Iraqi Supply Disruption Continues.
If the fundamentals do not change, next support will be 77 USD/barrel after the price breaks the psychological level 75 USD.
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USDJPY I Potential buy off 4 hr support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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BITCOIN RIGHT SHOULDERLots of fun things and happening around the crypto world the past few months
From Mr.SpankMan Fraud to banks dissolving out of existence and lets not forget liquidity crisis abound. From a fundamental standpoint things arent so great in the United States for crypto. STILL congress has dragged their feet and has yet to provide any significant framework for how they want crypto banks/business to run that are based out of the USA. This is in contrast to Europe and Asia where crypto regulations and regulatory bodies have laid out a much more concrete, if not still obscure, framework for how they want crypto businesses to operate.
From a corelation standpoint, Bitcoin is becomming less and less corelated to the overall US stock market, which is a good thing in general and should continue. Silvergate is not helping the situation but the lack of liquidity only means that volatility will increase. In times like these i like to go back to technicals, and from a technical standpoint THIS IS SOME ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BASIC PATTERN FOREX TRADING 101
RIGHT SHOULDER, STOP LOSS BELOW "HEAD" BUY BITCOIN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the local uptrend channel that the price has left the bottom. However, after marking the uptrend line, we see that the price has rebounded from it in the current correction.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here we have the first very strong support at the so-called Fib golden point at $19,221, however, when we fall below this support, we can see a drop to around $17,577.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the Fib Retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First resistance at $20895, second resistance at $21747, third resistance at $22401, then a very strong resistance zone from $23086 to $24029.
When we turn on the EMA Cross 10 and 30, we see where the moving averages intersect and the downtrend begins.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that the energy has been used, the MACD indicator confirms the ongoing uptrend, while the RSI shows that the indicator has fallen below the lower limit, which may potentially be the end of the correction.
USDCAD I It will fall from resistanceWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDCAD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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FTM/USDT 1DInterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to review the FTM chart this time on a one-day interval. As we can see, the price is moving in the downtrend channel, which we have marked with blue lines.
Let's start by marking the support spots for the price and we see that we have the first support at $0.35, the second very strong support at $0.27, and the next support at $0.16.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that first we have a resistance zone from $0.44 to $0.48, then we have resistance at $0.51, then we have a second strong resistance zone from $0.55 to $0.59, once price breaks it it will move towards resistance at $0.65 .
It is worth paying attention to the EMA Cross 10 and 30, which clearly indicate the place of entering the downtrend.
The CHOP index indicates that there is some energy left for further movement, the MACD indicates the continuation of the downward trend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range and is approaching the lower limit, thus creating room for new increases.
Upgrading Polygon PoS Chain to Boost Performance + TAHello friend.
Today im going to explain about the latest happenings in polygon layer-2 blockchain.
Lets see what will happen?
When the Polygon PoS chain first launched it offered a much-needed solution for Ethereum’s scaling issues.
It gave users and developers alike everything they love about Ethereum but with faster throughput and lower fees.
Now, with tens of thousands of decentralized apps, over 207 million unique addresses, more than 2.3 billion processed transactions, and a vanishingly-small carbon-footprint,
the Polygon PoS chain has emerged as the premier destination for dApps.
It is home to some of the biggest Web3 projects like Uniswap and Aave as well as major companies like Robinhood, Adobe, and Stripe.
But this is only the beginning.
Longer-term technical upgrades to Polygon PoS are being worked on, like parallelization, even while other promising tech for scaling, like Polygon zkEVM, is being built.
a critical hardfork will be proposed that will aim to:
1 - reduce severity of gas spikes;
In order for a transaction to be included in a block, a gas fee is required.
The “base fee” is the minimum fee for block inclusion, and is set in accordance with EIP-1559.
Although on-chain gas dynamics work well a majority of the time, when the chain experiences high demand,
the base gas fee experiences exponential spikes.
Increased gas prices are normal during surges in demand on any blockchain protocol.
But “gas spikes,” which represent exponential growth in price, are not.
They are a result of EIP-1559 and the Polygon PoS chain’s faster block times (~2s.)
2 - address chain reorganizations (reorgs) in an effort to reduce time to finality.
Decrease the sprint length from 64 to 16 blocks.
By reducing the length to 16 blocks, this upgrade means a single block producer will produce blocks continuously for a much shorter time (~32 sec) than the current (~128 seconds).
Doing so will decrease the depth of reorgs.
“Sprint length” describes the number of blocks a validator produces contiguous blocks on Bor chain.
By reducing sprint length, the time a validator continuously produces blocks decreases.
The result? Lowering the chances of a secondary or tertiary validator (who hasn’t discovered the primary) kicking in to produce blocks, resulting in fewer reorgs overall.
Reorgs are possible due to the architecture of the Polygon PoS chain, which relies on probabilistic consensus.
Finality for a transaction is achieved based on the number of confirmed valid blocks on top of the block containing a transaction.
In the Polygon PoS chain, applications wait approximately 50 blocks before considering a transaction final.
A reorg occurs when a validator node receives new information that shows a longer, or higher version of the chain.
The chain with the highest difficulty is called the “canonical” chain.
If a longer version of the chain arrives with more blocks, this is the new canonical chain, and the old one must be discarded.
Reorgs may impact transaction finality and disrupt the ability of an application to be confident that their transactions are part of the canonical version of the chain.
Expectation after the hardfork:
By decreasing the sprint length, the hardfork will help reduce the frequency and depth of reorgs, and improve transaction finality.
The change will not affect the total time or number of blocks a validator produces, so there will be no change in rewards overall.
Now lets look at technical perspective:
take a look at picture below (thats a weekly chart):
As you can see , the price supports in 0.76 strongly with a n Engulfing candle
and now it reaches to the correction area.
correction lasts till 50EMA (green line) and after that will increase again.
Notice that this analysis is a Long-Term analysis .
So try to invest in your own strategyk.
I think Polygon will be one of the best ecosystems Blochchain seen in these years.
THANK YOU fo reading my idea.
PLZ support me and put your opinion in comments?
What do you think?
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of BTC in pair USDT taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the yellow lines to mark the uptrend channel in which the BTC price is moving.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in case of further correction. And here, in the first place, it is worth marking the support at the price of $ 22959, which currently held the price, but when we go lower, we can see a drop to around $ 21,532, then to $ 20,383 and even $ 19,215.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the Fib Retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we have resistance just above the price at $23,145, when we manage to break it, we have a second very strong resistance at $25,221. Only when the price overcomes it and positively tests it, the way will open towards $31233.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that despite the correction the energy is growing, the MACD indicator indicates that we are on the verge of a downward trend change, while the RSI shows a visible rebound, but be careful because there is still room for a larger correction.
CABLE H&S UPDATECABLE has been very interesting lately. Sterling has surprised with decent data but the overall outlook for the sterling fundamentally remains the same, the market is expecting one more rate hike.
The strong data however is creating a very RANGY environment for this pair. We saw this when the last bearish move was RETESTED all the way to the 68 fib zone.
My bias on this pair remains BEARISH however, and i believe that the USDX will continue to control the OVERALL DIRECTION of this currency pair. From a short term standpoint we can see a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern forming, with the HEAD being the afformentioned 68 retest of our bearish momentum. this is a strong indication that the pair will continue to move downward, so long as our NECKLINE is protected by price action.
Look for a formation of a RIGHT SHOULDER here potentially coming, before the true trend takes over.
Trail your stops on this pair folks it has been swinging back and forth and i expect it to CONTINUE to do so.
THE BIG FLIP $SPYMY BEARISH THESIS
-This rally is led by fundamentally weak companies like CVNA, ROKU, AMC, and AFRM (companies with weak valuations) which has historically indicated that these types of rallies are temporary
-Six Month Treasury Bill yields rising to 5%, last seen in 2007
- The Feds Fund Rate (Feds target interest rate) rose higher after the recent CPI data which means the Fed must raise rates more aggressively to combat inflation
-50% base point rate hike probabilities are increasing for the next meeting
-Mortage Application volume fell 7.7% last week as mortgage rates rose
-The average rate for a 30-year mortgage rose from 6.18% to 6.4% in the last two weeks
-Employment number came in over double than expected which will cause Wage inflation
-Retail sales are up 3% month over month, crushing expectations (2%), spending continues
-Restaurant Retail Sales up 7.2% in January, strongest since March 2021
-Used car prices have increased 4.1% in the month of February and it's only the 18th
-Credit Card Debt hits a record 930.6 billion, up 18.5%
-Multiple large cap Company Earnings have missed and have started layoffs
All this means that the average consumer hasn't stopped spending despite inflation and high interest rates. This will cause the Fed to continue hiking interest rates or keep interest rates higher for longer which is not sustainable for the consumer. Overall, the fundamentals and the data is showing that this rally is temporary, and we will go lower. How low we will go is not yet known for the equities market, but many analysts believe new lows are not out of the question.
$SPY
EURNOK - To valhalla!First things first: all hail the vikings!
Why I like this trade:
- NOK with the MUCH better fundamentals
- NOK clearly undervalued on a longterm timeframe
- Norges Bank quite dovish in their last meeting but could get hawkish again in march as
-> inflation has massively surprised to the upside
- inflation expectations on thursday will be key for NB
- NB could reduce NOK selling
- oil and nat gas with upward potential
- EUR optimism is overpriced
EUR/USD: Markets Under Pressure After Strong U.S. Labor An earthquake in Turkey and rising U.S.-China tensions contributed to the unfavorable mood in the world markets on Monday morning.
The top platforms in Asia are dropping by 1.4%. The Japanese market stands out as an exception, rising 0.6%. Major U.S. index futures are continuing their downward trend from Friday, shedding as much as 0.4%. This morning, the nearest Brent crude oil futures are rising 0.2% and are currently trading slightly around $80 per barrel.
The non-farm payrolls from last Friday are the key point. In the first month of 2023, the U.S. economy added 517,000 new jobs, according to figures made public by the Labor Department. This is almost three times greater than the consensus prediction of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and double the amount from December (260 thousand).
Unexpectedly, the jobless rate dropped from 3.5 percent in December to 3.4 percent in January. 3.6% growth was expected, according to economists.
In accordance with forecasts, the average hourly salary increased 0.3% in January over December. The annual growth rate of hourly wages was 4.4%. (+4.3% y/y) The data were better than expected. It is important to note that the December estimate was increased; salaries increased at a rate of 4.8% y/y in December 2022 rather than the previously reported 4.6% y/y.
The report was undoubtedly credible. But given that January's results were biased by methodology, it seems we shouldn't pay too much heed to the exceptionally high employment growth numbers.
This month, the statistical office is changing a lot of things. However, the truth remains that following this jobs data, whatever concerns that some Fed policymakers may have had about the possibility of excessive monetary policy tightening should be significantly diminished.
The data from the report would have appeared considerably more persuasive if they had been available an hour before Jerome Powell's press conference on February 1 (the Fed increased the rate by 25 basis points to 4,5-4,75%). Powell expressed his opinion that the job market was still hot and imbalanced during the news conference on Wednesday.
And so we see: rather than the Fed attempting to calm pricing pressures by hiking rates, the larger picture suggests that the current situation of the labor market is in fact accelerating inflation rather than calming it down.
Regarding estimates from the money market, a 25bp rate increase in March is currently implied by the federal funds rate futures market 93% of the time (82% a day ago). A rate increase in the same range in May is 60% more likely than it was yesterday (22%). The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate drop by year's end is still being calculated by the swap market.
According to the current set of macrodata, the Fed has good justification for raising the rate in March by 0.25 percent to 5%. Let's just say that the market's steadfast denial of the Fed's warning that the rate could increase above 5% this year no longer appears to be a bluff on the regulator's side. The dollar is oversold, as indicated by the existence of strong technical signs earlier. Fundamental elements have now been added to them. Given the just released jobs statistics, the market's attitude toward hazardous assets appears to be excessively upbea
Technical Analysis:
Today it's presented a divergence on the H6 timeframe and the price seems to start a reversal.
Our indicator shows a Sell position in this lower timeframe.
NFP Possible opportunity and trading setupsToday's NFP print is coming in 2h and 30m, trading plan following.
In the last couple of days we got higher Labor data with Jobless claims, Jolts data printing way better than market expectations, and these 2 components fit into the NFP this might mean that on the aggregate the 185K US NFP estimation might be slightly higher than that. Anyways, let's move into the NFP now.
The bulk of market participants are between 150-200K and for exaggerated movements, we should look for anything below 150K for US$ shorting or 200K for US$ long. As a second layer of risk, we can use 125K to the downside and 225K to the upside which will give us the ultimate trading conviction.
US NFP printing higher than 200K (Risk x1)
US NFP printing higher than 225K (Risk x2)
EURUSD - GBPUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔽 USDJPY 🔼
US NFP printing lower than 150K (Risk x1)
US NFP printing lower than 125K (Risk x2)
NZDUSD - AUDUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔼
-Extra notes-
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) and Unemployment rate need to be considered as a second layer of conviction into this trade setup...
They are similarly essential and if they give a very different picture than NFP then we should be considering this in our analysis and either deduct any risk from our positions or even close our positions after all.
Average hourly earnings YoY have a previous Result of 4.6% and an estimation of 4.3% above 4.4% or below 4.2%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised by a result of 4.2% and below or 4.4% and above.
The US Unemployment rate has a previous result of 3.5% and an estimation forecast of 3.6%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised with a result of 3.4% and below and 3.7% or above.
Consider the above as possible conflicting factors or boosting factors to the NFP result, also don't forget that the Unemployment rate lower is US$ hawkish, and the Unemployment rate higher is US$ dovish.
USD/JPY chart detail overviewThe USD/JPY chart is a graphical representation of the exchange rate between the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. It shows the current value of the pair and its fluctuation in the past.
1] The USD/JPY pair is commonly referred to as the "Gopher" because it is the most liquid currency pair in the world.
The chart provides traders with a comprehensive view of the current and historical price of the pair, allowing them to make informed decisions on their trades.
It also offers a wide range of technical indicators such as moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and momentum indicators that can help traders make informed decisions. With the current market conditions, the USD/JPY is trading at 109.13 and is up 0.43% for the day.
USD/JPY: Current Market Trend and Opportunity for Trade
The USD/JPY currency pair is one of the most popular and heavily traded currencies in the world. Recently, the pair has been in a strong uptrend, with the USD gaining strength and the JPY weakening. This has allowed traders to take advantage of profitable trading opportunities. In this article, we will take a look at the current market trend and opportunity for trade when it comes to the USD/JPY currency pair.
The USD/JPY pair has been on an uptrend since May 2020, when it was trading at a low of 105.50. Since then, the pair has steadily gained in value, reaching a high of 118.50
The USD/JPY pair has been volatile in recent weeks, with developments in the markets and official meetings having a significant impact on the performance of the pair. On Monday, the Japanese Yen strengthened against the US Dollar as speculators anticipated the Bank of Japan to take a hawkish stance later this year due to high inflation . Furthermore, weaker equity markets continue to support the safe-haven nature of the Yen, while expectations for a less aggressive Fed policy stance are also contributing to the pair's downward slide
. The latest JPY market news, analysis and Japanese Yen trading forecast from leading DailyFX experts and research team has also been giving insight on the movements of the currency pair
. On Friday, the Japanese yen was in positive territory, with the exception of Monday when the pair jumped 1.8%. The gain was driven by the unexpectedly strong US employment report, which dampened hopes of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve
. Thus, market news and meetings have a significant impact on the performance of the USD/JPY pair.