5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This WeekThe US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week:
US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default. He has now called on Congress to pass the deal asap. Fitch ratings will remove the “negative watch” rating on the United States when the deal passes or looks likely to pass congress.
The debt ceiling agreement has potentially weakened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, leading to an increase in risk appetite in global markets.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, rose by 4.4% in April compared to the previous year, up from the 4.2% increase observed in March. This development has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June.
Due to the Memorial Day weekend in the US, as well as bank holidays in Europe and the UK, Monday will experience reduced market liquidity. Additionally, institutions are preparing for month-end trading on Wednesday, which could introduce more volatility.
The US payrolls report for May will be released on June 2nd. Recent months have consistently shown better-than-expected job figures. It is anticipated that this week's job numbers will indicate an addition of 180,000 jobs, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. A tighter job market will reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with strong wage data also providing support if the actual figures surpass estimates.
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BTC/USDT 1daychart Review Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the uptrend line from which the price went down, while we are currently moving in the downtrend channel, for which we used the blue line.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here we see that the price is at the support level of $26640, then it is worth marking a strong support zone from $25289 to $23939, however, when we fall below this zone, we can see a drop to around $22028.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the fib retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. We will first mark a strong resistance zone from $29,008 to $29,880 when it is broken, then we have a second support at $31,023 and then a third support at $34,201.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we have a lot of energy, the MACD indicator is on the verge of returning to an uptrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, but it is worth noting that a small upward movement gives a visible movement on the indicator, which in the long run can quickly limit room for price increases.
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailOil prices reversed on Thursday and Friday to transition into a choppy situation to the disappointment of buyers as talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling hit an impasse. Market participants were reluctant to have open buy positions into the weekend, on the off chance that an agreement to raise the U.S. government’s debt ceiling is struck over the weekend which could result in a huge gap at the beginning of the incoming week. In this video, we acknowledged the consolidation phase (between 70 and 74 zones) - a range that will be a determinant of price action in the coming week.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Daily BTC 1DChart - LONGTERMHello everyone, I invite you to every Friday review of the BTC chart on a one-day interval. Let's start by marking the main uptrend line with a yellow line, and as we can see, the price remains above it despite the current correction. Next, it is worth marking the local downtrend channel in which we are currently moving.
At this point, it is worth separating the upward movement into two stages and we can see that when we spread the Fib Retracement tool on the first one, we will notice that during the first upward movement, the correction reached the level of 0.618 FIB, which was a very strong support for the price. Now we can move on to the second stage of the current increases, but here we will start by marking the uptrend channel from which the price went down, in such a situation you can often observe the price going down by the height of the trend channel, and as you can see we are approaching this place. Now we will spread the Fib retracement grid from low to high to see what level the price can reach in the current correction. As in stage one, the price is approaching a strong support zone from $ 25342 to $ 23964, however, when the price falls below this zone, the next strong support is at $ 22088.
Now we can move on to checking what resistance the price has to overcome in order to continue the bullish trend. However, we will not mark individual resistances, because in this situation, the price must first break through the very strong resistance zone from $ 28832 to $ 32467, only when the price breaks out and then the zone is positively tested, we will be able to see further increases in the market.
As we can see further, the price, despite the correction, remains above the 200 EMA Cross, which indicates the maintenance of a long-term uptrend.
Index Chop indicates that there is still energy to continue the move, MACD remains in a downtrend, while the RSI is approaching the lower limit of the range, which usually indicates an upcoming trend reversal, but please remember that in the short term the price may go lower to the previously marked zone.
Daily ETH 1DChart - ReviewAs the second chart in today's review, we will check ETH against USDT, also on a single-day timeframe. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the main downtrend line that the price is approaching, previously we managed to exit the first downtrend line. We are currently moving similarly to the example of BTC in the uptrend channel marked with blue lines.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the supports, and as you can see, we have the first support at $ 1858, which has held the price for now, then we can mark a strong support zone from $ 1678 to $ 1517, but when the zone is broken, then we have a second zone from $ 1382 up to $ 1168.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at $ 2230, the next resistance at $ 2550, and then the third resistance at $ 3010. Nevertheless, a very important level will be the resistance at the so-called golden point of the Fib retracement at $ 3350.
Please look at the CHOP index which indicates that there is a lot of energy to move. The MACD indicator is on the verge of entering an uptrend. On the other hand, we observed a rebound on the RSI and we currently have an upward movement, with room for further movement.
BTC Dominance ! 1D Review Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current dominance of BTC over the rest of the market. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the sideways trend channel in which we are moving and here you can immediately see that we are in its upper limit, what is more, we are staying above the uptrend line.
Now we will go to check where we have support when BTC starts to lose against the entire market. And here we have the first support at 46.59 %, then the second support at 45.1 %, the third support at 43.9 %, and then the fourth support at 42.7 %. It is worth checking the percentage of BTC dominance, because the lower the value, the more other coins gain.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First we have resistance at 49.2 % which is a very strong resistance and the upper limit of the ongoing sideways channel, when we manage to break it we have second resistance at 50.7 % then third at 52 % and then fourth resistance at 53 %.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that most of the energy has been used, the MACD indicator indicates entering a local downtrend, while the RSI shows a small rebound, but we are still high, which may indicate a deeper correction.
CHFJPY I Trading plan and important considerationsWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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USDJPY I Dollar surging over the yen due to BOJ decisionWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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Daily BTC 4HChart REVIEWHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the interval of four hours. First of all, we will use the yellow line to mark the uptrend, as we can see that the price has now gone a little below. Next, using the blue lines, we will mark the local downtrend channel in which we are currently moving.
Now we can move on to marking support areas in case the correction starts to deepen further. And here, in the first place, it is worth marking a strong support zone from $ 27566 to $ 26637, however, when we fall below this zone, we can see a drop to around $ 25398, and then a strong drop to around $ 21868.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we have a significant resistance at $ 29672, when we manage to break it, second strong resistance at $ 31385, then third resistance at $ 32747.
Now let's look at the Cross 10 and 30 EMAs which indicate that we are in a local downtrend. At this point, however, it is worth looking at the EMA Cross 50 and 200, we should watch if the yellow EMA Cross 50 line crosses the blue line from above, which could indicate a return to a long-term downtrend.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that a lot of energy has accumulated, the MACD indicator indicates a local uptrend. On the other hand, on the RSI, we can see that we are moving at the lower limit, which gives the chart a local sideways trend and moments of respite.
Where BTC is heading, a test of the current correction.Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on the BTC pair to USDT, taking into account the four-hour interval and the one-day interval. First, we will use the white line to mark the first uptrend line, and then the second uptrend line, as you can see the price stays above them. We further see that in the current cycle the price is based on the local uptrend line, a similar situation took place in the previous uptrend cycle, until the price went down.
After unfolding the Fib Retracement grid, we can check how strong the correction was and here we see that we have retraced to a strong resistance zone at the so-called Fib golden point of 0.618. Going further, we will develop the Fib Retracement grid on the current growth cycle, thanks to which we can mark the next support spot at the price of $ 26654, while comparing the current cycle to the previous one, we can see a drop around the strong support zone from $ 25252 to $ 23927. When the price breaks through the support zone, the next strong support is at $ 22040.
We will now switch the chart to a one-day interval, which will make it easier for us to identify resistance points that the price will have to face first.
And here we can see that the price has broken through a very strong resistance at 0.786 Fib, however, the attempt to retest the resistance failed and we have entered a correction period, only when price moves back above the resistance level and then positively tests it will we be able to see the resistance attack attempt at a price of $ 32389.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that after using the energy we are in a period of reaccumulation, the MACD indicator indicates entering a local downtrend, while the RSI shows a visible rebound, but at this point it must be made clear that there is still room for the price to go down to the previously mentioned levels. It is worth watching the price level in conjunction with the RSI indicator, taking into account the example scenario that the price will go down to the first current support and the RSI will indicate a rebound to or above the lower end of the range, giving us a greater probability of the end of the correction.
Finally, when we turn on the Cross 50 and 200 EMAs, we can clearly see the place of return to the uptrend after a long bear market, moreover, the current correction at this moment does not indicate a threat regarding the possible continuation of the bull market.
Fundamentals & Technical AnalysisHow to apply fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement your technical analysis and trading strategy
Fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends are important tools for traders who want to understand the underlying forces that drive the market. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses on the price action and patterns of the market. By combining both approaches, traders can gain a more comprehensive and balanced perspective on the market and improve their trading strategy.
Fundamental analysis of the macroeconomic environment involves studying the economic, political, and social factors that affect the supply and demand of an asset. Some of the most relevant fundamental indicators are:
- Gross domestic product (GDP): This measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country in a given period. It reflects the economic growth and health of a country. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy and a higher demand for its currency and assets.
- Inflation: This measures the change in the average price level of goods and services over time. It affects the purchasing power of money and the interest rates. A moderate inflation indicates a healthy economy with stable growth. A high inflation indicates an overheated economy with excessive money supply and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Interest rates: This measures the cost of borrowing money. It affects the profitability of investments and the exchange rates. A higher interest rate indicates a tighter monetary policy and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A lower interest rate indicates a looser monetary policy and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Trade balance: This measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. It reflects the competitiveness and demand for a country's goods and services in the global market. A positive trade balance indicates a trade surplus and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A negative trade balance indicates a trade deficit and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
To complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can use fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to identify the long-term direction and strength of the market, as well as potential opportunities and risks. For example, suppose a trader wants to trade EUR/USD, which is the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar. The trader can use technical analysis to identify the support and resistance levels, trend lines, chart patterns, indicators, and signals on different time frames. The trader can also use fundamental analysis to assess the economic conditions and outlook of both the eurozone and the US, as well as their relative interest rates, inflation rates, trade balances, and other factors that affect their currencies.
Suppose the trader observes that the eurozone has a higher GDP growth rate, lower inflation rate, positive trade balance, and stable interest rate than the US. The trader can infer that the eurozone has a stronger economy than the US, which implies a higher demand for the euro than the US dollar. The trader can also observe that the EUR/USD is in an uptrend on the daily chart, with higher highs and higher lows, supported by a rising moving average. The trader can conclude that the fundamental analysis confirms the technical analysis, which suggests that EUR/USD is likely to continue to rise in the long term.
The trader can then use technical analysis to find an optimal entry point to buy EUR/USD. For example, suppose the trader sees that EUR/USD is retracing from a recent high to test a support level at 1.2000, which coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a rising trend line. The trader can also see that there is bullish divergence between the price and an oscillator indicator such as RSI or MACD, which indicates that the downward momentum is weakening. The trader can decide to buy EUR/USD at 1.2000, with a stop loss below 1.1900 and a target at 1.2200.
By applying fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and enhance their trading performance.
If you are stock trading, you should consider the following fundamental indicators which are all readily available as trends on the TradingView platform:
- ROE (Return on Equity): This indicator measures how effective a company is in generating profits for its shareholders. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the shareholders' equity. A high ROE indicates that the company is using its resources efficiently and creating value for its owners.
- EPS (Earnings Per Share): This indicator measures how much profit a company makes per share of its common stock. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the number of outstanding shares. A high EPS indicates that the company is profitable and can potentially pay dividends or reinvest in its growth.
- DYR (Dividend Yield Ratio): This indicator measures how much dividend a company pays per share of its common stock relative to its earnings. It is calculated by dividing the total dividends by the net income or the dividend per share by the earnings per share. A high DYR indicates that the company is rewarding its shareholders with a steady income stream and has confidence in its future prospects.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow): This indicator measures how much cash a company generates from its operations after deducting capital expenditures. It is calculated by subtracting the capital expenditures from the operating cash flow. A high FCF indicates that the company has enough cash to pay its debts, invest in new projects, or return money to its shareholders.
- PEG (Projected Earnings Growth): This indicator measures how fast a company's earnings are expected to grow in the future relative to its current price. It is calculated by dividing the price-to-earnings ratio by the annual earnings growth rate. A low PEG indicates that the company is undervalued and has strong growth potential.
These fundamental indicators can help traders to identify stocks that are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced based on their financial performance and future prospects. They can also help traders to compare different stocks within the same industry or across different industries and sectors.
Daily BTC 1DChart - LONGTERMHello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First of all, using the yellow line, it is worth marking the downtrend that the price has overcome and we are currently moving in the uptrend channel marked with blue lines.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here we see that we have the first support at HKEX:27 ,017, when the price goes lower, the second support is at $24,821, then the third support is at HKEX:23 ,030, and below we have the fourth very strong support at HKEX:21 ,181.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the FIB Retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we will mark the resistance zone where the price is currently from HKEX:28 ,000 to HKEX:31 ,754, when it manages to break it, the price may encounter resistance at HKEX:35 ,625, then resistance at HKEX:41 ,172 and a fourth resistance at HKEX:48 ,221.
It is worth paying attention to the EMA Cross 50 and 200, as we can see when the yellow line of the EMA Cross 50 crossed the blue lines of the EMA Cross 200 from below, this confirmed the entry into an uptrend after a very long decline.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we still have the energy to continue the move, the MACD indicator indicates a return to the uptrend, while the RSI has touched the upper limit of the range, which may affect the price going sideways or give a small rebound.
USDHKD Could this be the next Swiss Franc?The Swiss Franc used to be pegged to the Euro until 2015. The ECB went on a money printing spree with its own QE and the SNB could not sustain maintaining the peg. So it decided to remove the peg and the Swiss Franc strengthened against the Euro more than 20%. This caught a bunch of traders by surprise (mainly because the SNB said it was committed to maintaining the peg) and even collapsed the FXCM branch in the US. Now, will this happen to the HKD peg? Maybe. But the difference here is going long this pair will have you gain positive rollover and if the peg is removed, then price will likely appreciate. If price ranges, then you will be gaining around 1.77% a day, which is pretty decent (especially if utilizing margin. Be careful with using a large amount of margin). As this pair ranges and the FED keeps rates where they are at, with a standard lot, you'll be seeing around $4.85 a day. That is HKEX:1 ,770.25 a year and since the margin requirement for the HKD is around HKEX:10 ,000 for a standard lot, that is over a 17% increase (a little less because you will need more to add some buffer room or you'll get hit with a margin call). But if built correctly, this could be a nice play. I have an entry at the bottom of the band in order to get price at a good lvl. From here I can just hold.
Remember, these are just my thoughts and what I am doing. I could be wrong so conduct your own research and analysis. Have some good trading out there.
CABLE LONG TERM BUY SWINGHere it is Folks, the moment we have all been waiting for
After months of testing and retesting the upper bounds of the 1.24 area. it appears that CABLE has broken out and will now begin a very solid and consistent BULL SWING. Looking forward to buying and buying again on every dip.
Fundamentally this is being set up by the incoming US recession and data weakness is starting to slowly creep into the numbers. There is nowhere to go for this currencypair but up.
***POTENTIAL FAKE OUT DURING NFP TOMORROW POSSIBLE, OVERALL OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED REGARDLESS OF ANY DEEP RETEST DURING NFP***
EURUSD BOUNCE ON RESISTANCE ?As we seen the price already achieved at the level where the daily confirmation given, Thus it just needed more confirmation on the lowest timeframe to be looking for. Several news about JOLTS Opening and NFP will be decide the movement of USD. Happy trading for this week. CHEERS!!
Nordex: Profit Warning from May 2022 underestimated actual costsRECAP: Back in May 25, 2022, Nordex issued a profit warning and its stock was down -17.05%. The new estimates where:
FY2022 PROFIT WARNING ESTIMATES FROM MAY 2022 (Source: Nordex's IR website section):
– FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.2 to 5.7 billion
– FY2022 EBITDA-margin: minus 4 to 0 percent, including all one-off effects
- Capital expenditure: EUR 180 million
- Working capital ratio: below -7%
In March 31st, 2023 investors got to know the actual figures of the company.
FY2022 ACTUALS (Source: Nordex's IR website section):
– FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.6936 billion
– FY2022 EBITDA-margin: -4.3%
- Capital expenditure: EUR 204.8 million
- Working capital ratio: -10.2%
Capital expenditure and staff costs were up 21.4% and 18.5%, respectively.
The company suffers from delays in project intakes.
Overall, I reckon Consolidated sales were in the upper boundary of the profit warning but costs increased dramatically, probably due to inflation and related supply-chain issues that are still not fully corrected from China today, in 2023.
USOIL further increase? 31.03.2023It seems that the price of US Crude oil is breaking more resistances and moves further upwards.
Not suspiring since Iraqi Supply Disruption Continues.
If the fundamentals do not change, next support will be 77 USD/barrel after the price breaks the psychological level 75 USD.
__________________________
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USDJPY I Potential buy off 4 hr support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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BITCOIN RIGHT SHOULDERLots of fun things and happening around the crypto world the past few months
From Mr.SpankMan Fraud to banks dissolving out of existence and lets not forget liquidity crisis abound. From a fundamental standpoint things arent so great in the United States for crypto. STILL congress has dragged their feet and has yet to provide any significant framework for how they want crypto banks/business to run that are based out of the USA. This is in contrast to Europe and Asia where crypto regulations and regulatory bodies have laid out a much more concrete, if not still obscure, framework for how they want crypto businesses to operate.
From a corelation standpoint, Bitcoin is becomming less and less corelated to the overall US stock market, which is a good thing in general and should continue. Silvergate is not helping the situation but the lack of liquidity only means that volatility will increase. In times like these i like to go back to technicals, and from a technical standpoint THIS IS SOME ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BASIC PATTERN FOREX TRADING 101
RIGHT SHOULDER, STOP LOSS BELOW "HEAD" BUY BITCOIN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the local uptrend channel that the price has left the bottom. However, after marking the uptrend line, we see that the price has rebounded from it in the current correction.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here we have the first very strong support at the so-called Fib golden point at $19,221, however, when we fall below this support, we can see a drop to around $17,577.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the Fib Retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First resistance at $20895, second resistance at $21747, third resistance at $22401, then a very strong resistance zone from $23086 to $24029.
When we turn on the EMA Cross 10 and 30, we see where the moving averages intersect and the downtrend begins.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that the energy has been used, the MACD indicator confirms the ongoing uptrend, while the RSI shows that the indicator has fallen below the lower limit, which may potentially be the end of the correction.
USDCAD I It will fall from resistanceWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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FTM/USDT 1DInterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to review the FTM chart this time on a one-day interval. As we can see, the price is moving in the downtrend channel, which we have marked with blue lines.
Let's start by marking the support spots for the price and we see that we have the first support at $0.35, the second very strong support at $0.27, and the next support at $0.16.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that first we have a resistance zone from $0.44 to $0.48, then we have resistance at $0.51, then we have a second strong resistance zone from $0.55 to $0.59, once price breaks it it will move towards resistance at $0.65 .
It is worth paying attention to the EMA Cross 10 and 30, which clearly indicate the place of entering the downtrend.
The CHOP index indicates that there is some energy left for further movement, the MACD indicates the continuation of the downward trend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range and is approaching the lower limit, thus creating room for new increases.