JS-Masterclass #3: FundamentalsIn the recent tutorial 'Trading with the Trend - Stage Analysis', we have explained the importance of identifying stocks in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend using the 'Trend-Template'.
What are the Fundamentals doing in a confirmed stage 2 Uptrend?
The best stocks and buying opportunities available in the market meet the technical requirements according to Minervini's Trend-Template and have very healthy Fundamentals.
Best Candidates
- Growth
- Accelerating EPS and Revenues
- Explosive Market Position
- Sustainable Trends
- Scalable Business Model
Worst Candidates
- Capital Intensive
- Limited Pricing Power
- Heavily Regulated
- Margin Pressure
- Eroding Industry Position
Watch out for these 3 key fundamentals – Earnings, Sales and Margins
1) Earnings in most recent 2-3 quarters +20% or more – the bigger the better; look for earnings acceleration – quarter to quarter sequential. Look at a 2
quarter average (up 20%)
2) Sales acceleration: sales increasing in most recent 2-3 quarters
3) Check profit margins – are they expanding or contracting?
4) Combination of sales and margins = earnings: gauge current growth versus 3-5 year growth rate (look for acceleration), Look for a breakout year
How Do You Know if an Earnings Report is Really Great?
1. Results are better than the consensus of analysts’ estimates or, even better, earnings come in above
the highest analyst estimate. Why? This will get the stock on the radar screens of big institutions.
2. The company raises its guidance for the upcoming quarter and the fiscal year significantly.
3. The stock price reacts positively to the earnings report and/or company issued guidance and
resists meaningful profit taking over a number of days or weeks.
4. Analysts promptly raise estimates. (More than a 5% change from 30-days earlier is meaningful).
5. Revenue is reported above the consensus estimate (preferably above the highest estimate) and is
also revised upward.
6. Earnings are “quality” – profit improvement comes from increased sales as opposed to a one-time
gain or non-operating/non-recurring income. Keep in mind, cost cutting or “productivity
enhancements” have a limited life span.
7. You can check Return on Equity to get an idea how good management is doing. You should compare
this number to other companies in the same industry. 15-17% is a good cutoff for most stocks.
Red Flags
• Material earnings deceleration is a warning
• Eroding margins is a warning
• Positive earnings with negative sales – limited life span
• A company showing strong earnings but not paying much in taxes is a red flag
Even if you have found a stock with great Fundamentals:
- Never trust the story
- Never trust the numbers
- Unless confirmed by price action
Fundamentalstrategy
Daily review of BTC interval 1DHello everyone, I invite you to the BTC to USDT review on a 1 day interval. Please see that the BTC price was moving in the uptrend channel, then it started to decline and moved in the triangle marked with blue lines.
Currently, we managed to leave the triangle on the top and break the first trend.
Now let's move on to determining the support btc has in the event of a correction, and as you can see, the first support line is at $ 19,713, the second support is at $ 19,029 and the next support is at $ 18,472.
Looking the other way around, we can also mark the points of resistance, and here we can see that the first resistance line is at $ 20,765, the second resistance is at $ 21,492, the third is at $ 22,409, and a strong resistance at $ 25,028 that btc has to overcome so that it could grow to around $ 30,000.
Please note the CHOP index which indicates that most of the energy has been used, while the MACD indicator shows an upward trend.
META Important Milestone!As you know, I am a long term investor. Thus, I usually buy stocks for the long term, and never short any equities due to shorting's unlimited risk. With a P/E ratio of 10, it would be reasonable to think that META is a good bargain considering its status as a social media giant. However:
1. META's Userbase is declining, something never seen before in the history of the company.
2. Competition like Google's Youtube and ByteDance's Tiktok is catching up and overtaking META
3. New Apple (AAPL) IOS changes, which made META's data collection process much harder, has and will adversely affect its ad revenue (which is 98+% of its total revenue)
---------- Specifically, the IOS change requires META to get the user's permission to collect data for Ads. Until now, data shows that only 33% of users allow META to collect their data for more personalized ads. I think you can see how this affects Ad revenue.
Thus, the "metaverse" is the only thing that may/may not save META from its inevitable doom. However, that means that:
1. The metaverse needs to develop in the years ahead, and not just stay at a gaming level
2. META must have enough cash to fund research into the metaverse
3. It must dominate the metaverse industry
Although I personally think that META is a lost cause, I choose not to label this as "#METAshort" because I think all investor have their own opinions. Here are some good points about META:
1. 10 P/E ratio (lower than S&P 500 average
2. META's adaptability
3. Technicals? (Not seen yet)
I choose to write this now because META's Q3 results are tomorrow and are key to how META's stock and the metaverse will develop in the future.
Anyway, thats all for my idea. Please leave a comment and boost this idea so it can go out to other investors! 😊
P.S. Someone give me coins :)
BNB / USDT 1D INTERVAL, STOPLOSS AND TARGETSI invite you to review the BNBUSDT chart on the 1 day interval, as you can see the price was moving in the uptrend channel from which it came down.
And as you can see we are currently in the side trend channel marked with white lines, it is also worth adding that we are in its lower part, from which the price has rebounded several times.
Now let's move on to the line of support, and as you can see, the first support is at $ two hundred and seventy-two, the second is at $ two hundred and sixty-five, and the third is at $ two hundred and fifty-six.
Looking the other way, we will also determine the resistance lines that the price must overcome. We have the first resistance at two hundred and seventy-five dollars, the second resistance at two hundred and eighty-seven dollars, the second at two hundred and ninety-seven dollars, and three hundred and six dollars.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that we have a lot of energy, and the MACD indicator indicates a local upward trend.
BNB / USDT 1D INTERVAL, Resistance and supportHello everyone, let's take a look at the BNBUSDT chart on the 1 day time frame, as you can see we left the uptrend channel and we are currently moving in the sideways channel where the price is accumulating.
As you can see, we are at the bottom of the channel, which can be used for short-term licks.
As you can see, we have the first support right at the lower end of our current channel, then we have a strong support zone.
However, after leaving the current channel, we have a strong zone of resistance to further increases.
The CHOP indec indicates that the energy has run out and the MACD indicator shows a downtrend.
Long term review of the XRPUSDT marketHello everyone, I invite you to the XRPUSDT review on a 1-day interval. As you can see in the chart, the price came up from the first channel of the sideways trend and from the first line of the downtrend.
We are currently above the uptrend line, but we can also mark the second channel of the sideways trend.
Now let's move on to the support that xrp has in front of it and we can see that the first support zone is from $ 0.50 to $ 0.46, then we have support lines at $ 0.42, then the support zone from $ 0.39 - 0.35 $ and support at $ 0.29.
Looking in the other direction, we will analogously determine the points of resistance.
We have the first resistance at $ 0.53, the second resistance at $ 0.61, then we have a strong resistance zone that starts at $ 0.69 and continues all the way up to $ 0.93.
It is worth paying attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we have a lot of energy, while the MACD indicator indicates a local downward trend.
Daily review of BTC interval 1WHello everyone, due to the hot situation on BTC, I invite you to review the BTCUSDT chart on the 1W interval.
Let's start by marking the upward trend line, which lasted from March 2020 to November 2021, then we started the decline that continues until today, and so the price is under the current downward trend line. It is worth adding that the price is currently moving in the side channel which ranges from about $ 18,000 to $ 25,000.
Let's move on to the determination of the support and here the support zone from $ 18,415 to $ 17,259 is immediately visible, but if the price does not stay in the current zone and goes down, we can see a drop in the price even to around $ 13,000.
Assuming that the price, however, remains at its level, it is worth looking at the chart more optimistically and here we will move on to several resistance points and how the price may move in this situation.
The first resistance that btc has to pass is $ 19874, the next one is $ 20,967, then we have a resistance zone from $ 22,589 to $ 25,318, only breaking this zone can give further increases towards the resistance at $ 29,543 and further at $ 37,114.
It is worth paying attention to the CHOP Index which indicates that we have a lot of energy to make the next move, while the MACD indicator shows that we are still in an uptrend.
CRO / USDT 1W Interval- support and resistanceHi, let's take a look at the 1W CROUSDT chart. It is worth noting that we have dropped below the long-term uptrend and we are currently in the downtrend channel marked in blue.
Looking further, it is worth determining the support that the CRO has in the event of further declines and here we can see that the price is currently in the support zone, which is from $ 0.111 to $ 0.098. If the price drops below this zone, the next strong support is around $ 0.584.
Now let's move on to the resistance that the price will have to overcome to keep rising, and here we see that the first resistance zone starts at $ 0.137 to $ 0.162. The next zone starts at $ 0.199 to $ 0.261.
Let us pay attention to the CHOP indicator which shows that we have a lot of collected energy. and the MACD indicator which shows that despite the current decline we are in an uptrend.
1D DOTUSDT ReviewHi everyone, let's take a look at the 1 day DOTUSDT chart.
Let's start with the fact that for some time the dot price has been moving in the channel marked with blue lines, which can be potentially used for short-term plays.
But let's see that the bottom of the current channel is also a support zone for the price from $ 6.28 to $ 6.13.
If it is possible to exit the current channel upwards, the price has to cross two important resistance zones, the first one is from $ 6.75 to $ 7.00, and let's note that the price has already turned back in this zone. Next we have a second important resistance zone from $ 7.25 to $ 7.60.
It is worth mentioning that looking at the long term, the price moves in the triangle marked with yellow lines and at this point entering the first resistance zone or breaking it would also leave the current triangle.
Now let's look at the CHOP indicator which shows that we have a lot of energy in the 1-day interval, but the MACD indicates that we are still in a downward trend. When the MACD shows a clear cross between the red line and the blue line from below, it may be a confirmation of a shift from the long-term trend to an uptrend.
HFCL - Avoid Completely-MultipleRedflagHFCL Ltd (Himachal Futuristic Communications Limited) is a diverse telecom infrastructure enabler with active interest spanning telecom infrastructure development, system integration, and manufacture and supply of high end telecom equipment, Optical Fiber and Optic Fiber Cable (OFC).
Product Portfolio
Optical Fiber Cable (OFC),
Optical Fiber,
Wi-fi systems,
Microwave radios,
Routers,
Ethernet switches,
Electronic fuses,
Electro optic devices
Revenue Break - Below break up has 2 to 3% export revenues
78% of revenues and sale of Telecom products
22% of revenues from others.
General Notes
1. Promoters shares are pledged to the extent of 44% - Redflag
2. Associated with reliance jioinfocom
3. Sales, Profits and EPS are not ok with me. Its been constanly reducing on QoQ basis which is not good
4.Cash flow is negative - Red flag
5.Interestingly cash conversion cycle is 77 days (Increased) but payables day has been decreased to 177 days ( Previously it was 262 days)
6.Public holding more than 50% - Redflag
7.Over the years it has been playing with multiple news in the markets but it has not performed a bit. Every time investors have burned hands on this
8.Techincal setup has been broken upwards. For trading this can be taken up with stoploss of Rs. 60.
Healthcare Global Enterprise - Good BSHealthcare Global Enterprises Ltd is engaged in setting up and managing hospitals and medical diagnostic services including scientific testing and consultancy services in the pharmaceutical and medical sector.
Business Area
1. Presence in Oncology value chain
2. Cancer Hospital/Networks
3. Fertility Business
4. Multispeciality hospital in 4 small towns
Revenue Break
95% from Oncology and Cancer Network
5% from Fertility and Multispeciality hospital
General Notes
1. Slowly expanding its business in smaller towns by providing quality facilities
2. Sales have been growing steadfast on QOQ basis with co turning profits in last 2 quarters
3. EPS turned positive in last 2 QOQ
4. Borrowings getting reduced from last 3 YOY but still looking significant. 1.25% of reserves are borrowings
5. Cash on balancesheet is big since they has sold their entire stake in Sept 2021, the company sold its entire 38% stake in its JV, Strand Life Sciences Pvt Ltd to Reliance Industries for ~157 crores. It acquired the oncology hospital labs and clinical trials business from the JV for ~81 crores consequent to the stake sale. It booked a profit of ~142 crores on the sale.
6. Debtor days and Payables are slowly seeing improvements which is just a begining. Lot of efforts is required to look clean
7. ROCE is meager since its EPS turned around in last 2 quarters so it might take another 6 months to have good ROCE. Presently it stands at 5%
8. IFC is investor but slowly reducing its stake.
9. Overall balancesheet looks good and worth for investment
ETH - USDT, 1D Interval Resistance and Support ZonesHello everyone, let's take a look at the ETH to USDT chart on the one day timeframe as you can see the price is moving in the downtrend channel.
Let's start with the designation of the support zone and we can see that we are currently in the upper limit of the zone, which is between $ 1,320 and $ 1,126.
Now let's move on to the resistance zone, and as you can see, the first zone is from $ 1,527 to $ 1,629, while the second resistance zone is from $ 1,724 to $ 1,860.
It is worth paying attention to the CHOP indicator which indicates that we have a lot of energy for the next move, while the MACD indicator indicates a local upward trend.
BITCOIN ANALYSIS: CHARTS PRICE ACTION w/ US NEWS AND ORDER FLOWWelcome back to another video, today's video is about analysing GBPUSD with fundamental and technical analysis using the monthly, weekly and daily timeframe to understand and see price movements for the next direction of prices (either downwards or upwards trend).
P.S NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR... JUST EDUCATIONAL AND LEARNING PURPOSE ONLY...
VIBBTC 1W Interval!Hello everyone, let's take a look at the 1W VIBBTC chart as you can see the price has come above the downtrend line.
Let's start with setting goals for the near future, we can consider 3 zones of resistance:
The first is the zone from 0.00000429 to 0.00000542,
The second zone is from 0.00000686 to 0.000001072
and
The third zone is from 0.000001693 to 0.000002350
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case of further market declines:
SL1 = 0.00000382
SL2 = 0.00000239
and
SL3 = 0.00000124
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we can see that in the 1W range, the energy slowly begins to increase, while the MACD indicator shows an upward trend.
USDEUR Long-Term ReviewHello everyone, let's take a look at the USDEUR weekend chart as you can see the price has been moving in the uptrend channel since 2008 and has broken the downtrend line that has been going on since 1985.
Let's start with the designation of the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is 0.95, if the support breaks down, the next support is 0.89, 0.84 and 0.79.
Now let's move from the resistance line as you can see, the first resistance is the support zone from 1.08 to 1.21, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be 1.56.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we can see that in the 1W interval, most of the energy has been used, but we still have some more for the next move, and the MACD indicator confirms the current upward trend.
XRPUSDT situation after recent increases of 50%Hi everyone, let's take a look at the XRPUSDT chart on the 1 day interval because in recent days you have seen the price increase by about 50%. We continue to follow the long-lasting downtrend channel, but in the short term we exceed the local downtrend line.
Let's start with determining the support that the xrp price has on its way and as you can see the first support is at $ 0.4568, but if it is broken, we already have a support zone from $ 0.38 to $ 0.24.
Now we will pay attention to the resistance we have to overcome so that the price can continue to go up. We have the first resistance at $ 0.5328, the next at $ 0.6782, then we have two strong resistance zones, the first from $ 0.92 to $ 1.22 and the second from $ 1.31 to $ 1.60.
It is worth paying attention to the CHOP indicator which shows that the energy has already been used, while the MACD indicator shows an upward trend.
Kirloskar Oil Engines - New BusinessKirloskar Oil Engines Ltd
India’s largest Industrial Engine manufacturer with over 40,000 engines manufactured annually.
India’s largest diesel Agri engines and pump sets manufacturer with over 1,45,000 units manufactured annually.
Products and Brands
Co. develops and offers indigenous engines for agriculture, Genset, and industrial off-highway equipment segments. Their range of products includes 2.5HP to 740HP engines to diesel gensets with a power output of 5kVA to 1,500kVA.
New Business and Products
1.In FY22, co. launched a High-Efficiency 3-Phase L.V. Electric Motor. In addition, co. introduced BS-IV engines in the industrial domain and the Organic Waste Composter (Kirloskar i-Land), the Company also released new products in the Power generation market, comprising the K4300 and R550 series.
2.The Co. had commenced financial service business through its subsidiary company viz. Arka Fincap Limited (previously known as Kirloskar Capital Limited) with effect from 24th April 2019. In FY22, co. invested 50 cr in the rights issue of AFL. Further, on 13th July 2021, it incorporated a WOS- Arka Financial Holdings, for enhancing strategic flexibility in the FS business. Co. invested 837 Cr towards the rights issue of this co. Co. also transferred all of its shares in Arka fin cap to AHFPL
3.The Co. engaged in a Business Association Agreement to create lightweight and compact DG sets for defense projects. In addition, the Co. won a large order for propulsion kits for inland water ferry boats and a refurbishment project
4.In FY22, step-down subsidiary co. Optiqua Pipes and Electricals acquired the business of pipes, cables & wires of Optiflex Industries, on a slump sale basis.
Revenue Mix FY22
Segment Wise:
Engines - 73%
Electric Pumps - 17%
Financial Services - 5%
Other Segments - ~5%
Other Segments include revenue from sales/business operations of farm equipment and spares.
Business Wise
Power Generating Business - 33%
Agriculture & Allied Business - 26%
Industrial Engine Business- 13%
Customer Support - 11%
International Business - ~8%
Large Engine Business - ~4%
Financial Services Business - 5%
Geographical Wise:
Domestic - 88%
Export - ~12%
General Notes
1. Healthy dividend paying stock
2. Last 2 QOQ growth is back to pre covid EPS returns with good sales
3. Though in business for pretty long time but ROI and ROE are meager 9% to 12%
4. Borrowings have increased 1X on YOY - Redflag
5. Cash is net negative - Redflag
6. However debtor days and Inventory cycle days have improved significantly YOY
7. Fii stake have been on decreasing trend. However it is going with DII instead of public shareholding which is littl bit better news for me
8. I WILL PREFER TO WAIT TO BUY THIS ONCE THIS CROSSES 270 RATHER THAN BUY THIS HERE AT CMP
Daily review of BTC interval 1DHello everyone, let's take a look at the BTCUSDT chart on the 1-day interval, where we can see that the btc price moved for a long time in the uptrend channel marked in yellow, and then entered the local downward trend channel marked in blue.
It is worth starting with determining the support we currently have and we can see that we are currently in the support zone from $ 19,283 to $ 17,664 if the current support zone is broken, the price may go down to support at $ 13,011.
Now let's move on to the resistance bitcoin price has to overcome if it starts to rise. The first resistance is at $ 19,885, then we have a support zone from $ 20,888 to $ 22,043 before us. When we break it, we have another strong resistance zone from $ 22,540 to $ 23,751.
Please pay attention to the Chop indicator, which indicates that we are slowly recovering energy in the 1-day interval, and the MACD indicator, which confirms that we are continuing the local downward trend.
Review of the ETH / USDT chart on the 1D intervalHello everyone, let's take a look at the ETH to USDT 1 day chart. It is worth noting that after a long time when the ETH price was moving in the uptrend channel marked in yellow, however, a few days before the MERGE event, the price of eth started to decline and we entered the local downward trend channel marked in blue.
Let's start with the designation of the support line and as you can see the first support where the price is currently at is $ 1317, if the support breaks down and the price goes further down, it has a support zone from $ 1239 to $ 1083 in front of it.
Now let's move from the resistance line, as you can see, the first resistance is $ 1454, if you can break it, we have two zones to go. The first resistance zone is from $ 1564 to $ 1653, while the price eth will break it, another zone is from $ 1707 to $ 1864.
Let's pay attention to the CHOP indicator where we can notice that we have less and less energy for further moves, and the MACD indicator confirms that we are in a downward trend.
A comprehensive overview of the ETH shopping areasLet's start with what Merge is and how does it affect the price?
This is where ETH switches from POW to POS. This means that the "production" of new Ethers can drop by as much as 90%.
However, you should be aware of the dangers that could occur if the update failed.
But as always, let's try to be optimistic for a moment!
Knowing the past, or if you prefer history. We can predict with greater probability what will happen next. And I don't just mean wars that were usually caused by the same thing, crises that were usually caused by the same… .. I mean Bitcoin halving. So, while writing about Ethereum, we will focus on Bitcoin for a moment.
Since the price increased after each Bitcoin halving, we can assume that he will potentially do it again.
Let's go a step further, since after halving the difficulty of extracting or "producing" increased by half and thus we received a smaller reward by half for the excavated block, so we can assume that after the next halving it will be similar again.
So let's ask ourselves another question :)
Is Merge for Ethereum like halving for Bitcoin?
Well, not really, because the market will not get 50% less BTC, only 90% less Ethers. So Merge is more than that!
We have a price curve on a logarithmic scale, but it's not a Rainbow. I simply took these levels as benchmarks.
Note the “Kind of a head with arms that ended us hosse at ETH.
The left arm is yellow circles,
The head is a red circle,
The left arm is a blue circle.
Right after we had our left shoulder and some drops, we had time to go shopping.
SHOPPING AREA - I marked it in blue. It is a place where, in my opinion, you should buy, regardless of whether the price is rising or falling locally
BUY ONLY AFTER ADJUSTMENT - I have marked this area in yellow. this is a place where corrections of 20-50% should not surprise anyone, but should be treated as a potential chance to enter an uptrend.
GETTING INPUT - The pink area should be the place to think about making a profit, or at least and necessarily take out your crypto financial contribution. You should reward yourself for perseverance and consistent implementation of the strategy :) Let the rest of the "free" money work.
LEAVE THE MARKET! - in the red area, forget about buying, this is the place where you should leave the market and wait for a drop of over 60-70-80% and repeat everything again.
Well, now let's talk about price levels and percentage increases (if everything goes according to plan)
We already know that after the second Bitcoin halving, the price of etherum also shot up and despite the initial sideways trend and declines, we finally grew from $ 12 to over $ 1,500, i.e. over 12,000% ....
Another time it was not so spectacular.
After the third Bitcoin Halving ETh, $ 4,800 rose from around $ 200. This time the increase was over 2,100%
And now let's think that if Ethereum was able to increase so much in percentage, is it possible to scenario that we will grow again 12,000% - let's get down to earth and, despite the optimism, let's become realistic for a moment. The crypto market grew after Bitcoin and that much in ETH at that time nothing changed, but it grew.
This time, however, is different.
We have more than Bitcoin halving on Ethereum, so can I assume Ethereum will grow at least 2,100%? Sounds better, right?
If I get off for 2,100% increases and the price rises to 12,000%, should I cry and bang my head on the table? NOT. If you make a profit, you should be happy, no matter if it is 10%, 100% or 2000%.
Let it not be, these are not investment advice. SueI am just trying to put my thoughts on paper ... or rather on a computer screen.
Let's look at the percentages for a moment:
From the peak in June 2016, when the price was at 21.49, we have decreased by 73%.
Since the January 2018 peak, we've dropped 94%, and it's worth noting that the peak was a month later than Bitcoin at the time, which already showed that ETH was starting to get its way ... but then it fell like everything else!
After the November 2021 peak, the decline reached 81% ... which is in line with the average.
Would it be possible to drop by 80% before Bitcoin's fourth halving around 2024 - seems likely.
And I would also like to explain why he decided to mark price curves on a logarithmic scale.
Note that from the high of $ 21.49 to the high of $ 1594, we jumped 3 levels on a mesh of blue rainbow price curves. The next peaks did not break new curves (these peaks with peaks of over $ 4,000 in the next bull market). However, I assume that with the appropriate “market excitement” by increases, there may be a situation in which we will break new levels on the curve.
Thank you very much for reading the full description of the analysis. If it turned out to be helpful in any way, please leave (the racket) a paw up :)