Is this the final push in SID? Can it push higher?Reaching previous medium level cycle high of 4.15
Also a Higher level cycle low back in late 2015 of $1
Above 34M ma
Previous higher level cycle high of around $25
Short-term target of 4.15
Long-term target of 25
Fundamentals:
P/E 13.45
Current Ratio 2.20
EPS projected NY growth 181%
Optimism: less than 2% short interest
Positive news building on the way up
Steel producer out of Brazil; construction and the IMP Manufacture's Index is up. DOW is up.
Wide range of products
Down Sides:
Longer than average correction that put RSI into bearish levels.
Trend is slightly reducing its angle.
The average true range increased on the correction
Volume built on the correction.
All the above considered, I was in at 2.80 and I'm staying until 4.10.
Fundementals
USD/JPY- Post FOMCUSD/JPY has been on a strong rally since breaking a major support a few weeks ago. Since then price has had a lot of bullish momentum helped by hawkish FOMC statements from the Fed and has risen quickly to a major daily resistance zone. Seeing how price reacted to this zone at the end of the week shown some rejection and a break in the minor support and TL. We then moved to a major support zone and started some consolidation.
This week I would look for a retest of the new resistance and TL this could be a possible sell setup if we don't move past that zone. We have a lot of fresh zones created from the move up so these will fill up in time and we can use these for downtrend targets. Some consolidation is also a possibility due to the quick rise in prices over a short period of time. We can use the correlations with gold to get the best timing possible to get on a move which ever way it goes.
Longer term fundamentally we could see a softer dollar due to rising geopolitical issues but the good news is that the Fed sounded fairly hawkish in its plans to continue to raise rates and balance fiscal policy.
NUVA is oversold & will be recovering from post-ER overreactionOn the daily chart, MACD and price have diverged nicely. On the weekly, stochastic is showing oversold. We are also at the .618 fib level from 52 week high. I'm going to call bottom between 52 and 54 before we start recovering. Also 35% retracement looks similar to February of last year.
OIG subpoena is only related to one customer and will have a small effect. Management changes are short-term hurdles that the market will forget soon. The company recently released LessRay which offers reduced radiation in imaging. They also bought out Vertera Spine.
Vanguard picked up 4.1 million shares recently with many other institutions increasing their positions. Average TP is 79.67 across 19 analysts which is also pretty good.
AUDNZD LONG with 200 PIPS in potential profitThe Aussie has been one of the stronger currencies recently and after the positive figure of Retail Sales earlier on today we can expect some further strength which is why I'm considering a long position after the break of the Yellow trendline.
TRADE SAFE AND DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE ENTERING A TRADE.
NVIDIA (NVDA) Strong up trend - LONG/SHORT POSITION THR 10THSector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductor - Specialized
BASIC INFO:
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a visual computing company.
It operates in two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor.
The GPU segment offers processors, which include GeForce for PC gaming; GeForce NOW for cloud-based game-streaming service; Quadro for design professionals working in computer-aided design, video editing, special effects, and other creative applications; Tesla for deep learning, accelerated computing, and general purpose computing; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users.
The Tegra Processor segment provides processors that integrate a computer onto a single chip under the Tegra brand name; DRIVE automotive computers, which offer self-driving capabilities; and tablet and portable devices for mobile gaming and TV streaming under the SHIELD name. The companies products are used in gaming, professional visualisation, datacenter, and automotive markets.
It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, motherboard manufacturers, add-in board manufacturers, and retailers/distributors.
NVIDIA's outlook
Investors could hardly be more optimistic headed into NVIDIA's second-quarter earnings results on Thursday. The stock is the single-best performer on the S&P 500 over the past year, up almost 200% in 52 weeks.
NVIDIA Revenue looks on track with a steady increase, Earning per share are rising as well as dividends. Earning growth still above the industries average with the last few estimates exceeded by the actual report. 5 year forecast sits at 10.3% and were seeing a PEG ratio of 5.2
NASDAQ Guru Rating
P/E Growth Investor Peter Lynch
NVDA gets a 56% rating based on Peter Lynch's methodology.
Value Investor Benjamin Graham
NVDA gets a 43% rating based on Benjamin Graham's methodology.
Momentum Strategy Investor Validea
NVDA gets a 89% rating based on Validea Momentum methodology..
Growth/Value Investor James O'Shaughnessy
NVDA gets a 60% rating based on James O'Shaughnessy's methodology.
Small Cap Growth Investor Motley Fool
NVDA gets a 61% rating based on Motley Fool's methodology.
Contrarian Investor David Dreman
NVDA gets a 50% rating based on David Dreman's methodology.
Growth/Value Investor Martin Zweig
NVDA gets a 62% rating based on Martin Zweig's methodology.
Price/Sales Investor Kenneth Fisher
NVDA gets a 40% rating based on Kenneth Fisher's
www.nasdaq.com
Ok after all that.
NVDA seem to look good on the surface, theres lot of positive media report and the fundamentals look good, This could be a good sign or a bad one. Earning reports come out on the Thursday the 10th with an estimate of 0.69, if the release is positive we should see the price jump high with a possible entry for a long position if the end of day price stays above 171 after resistance is broken.
However , if we se a negative result we would expect the pice bounce off resistance and brake the trend opening us up for a short position.
So
LONG POSITION wait till Thursday and if price brakes 171 go for a long position with stops around the 157 mark and ride the trend up adding to positions every time price rebounds off bottom trend line. Close positions after bottom trend line has been broken.
SHORT POSITION wait till Thursday if price brakes 157 go short with stops around 170 and a target of 138.
GBPJPY - Long TradeGBPJPY has broken the down trend around the 144.60 on the 4 hour timeframe. From the current price we are looking for a small correction inside our established kill zone for an opportunity to buy long for a nice trend continuation trade to the upside. If price breaks out and above topside resistance early then we will be buying long above the established zone. Upside target is in the neighborhood of the 147.00. On the fundamental side, the BOJ monetary policy minutes were published yesterday and basically things remain unchanged as they continue with their policy of QQE. Good trading to all and as always. Plan your trade and trade your plan! Cheers!
Short USDJPY at VPOCUSDJPY has been falling for past 2 weeks or so. After steep falls price retraces to previous session volume point of control. This happened 2/4 times. On a third time it was just a few pips short. The fourth time the price did not retrace at all. So I think decent chance of the pullback to newest VPOC.
Also want to point out CFTC data shows sellers of yen (not USDJPY!) since early May. During this time yen has strengthend or gone sideways. Yen shorts must capitulate! Much downside could remain
AUDJPY LongAUD has been supported lately and Im looking to enter via pullback. Entry is around 87.00 to 87.05 with a stoploss of 25 to 30 pips. The entry marks the point where there is a shift from low volume region to high volume. Reasons for AUD strength and JPY weakness:
*Better Chinese Imports
*Better Chinese Exports
*Dovish Yellen signaled inflation corners
*US CPI miss
*COT data shows Yen selling
For further insight into my trading methodology, see www.youtube.com
EURGBP possible short trade ideaIt is NOT a setup there yet! But fundamentals support this idea as GBP have potential to strengthen and EUR to weaken during few month in future. As well as the Elliott wave count is in place too. At the moment I am just waiting for the good entry setup with best risk reward ratio. I'm not taking the trade yet.
Divergence on EURUSDEUR speculative position has been at extremes and USD has been oversold. We also got a completed DeMark setup indicating a possible reversal. Today the market was expecting the Fed to be a bit dovish, instead they signaled they were staying the course and GDP expectations even increased. Im expecting dollar to recover and Eur to sell off.
117pip CyPHER move in 1 hour!Price action formed a Bearish Cypher formation (D Completion around the 0.69321 level found the pattern late but luckily and happend to give me a better risk reward. price action was consolidating for most of the day at a loss until RBNZ Press Conference and RBNZ Monetary Policy news took place then price rolled over and both target 1 and 2's got taken out in less than an hour. price action is now pulling back from this huge drop off if it reaches my kill zone will be looking to take a short position once price action gives me confirmation of the down trend
SILVER:HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!As we all can see a heavy metals sell-off has been started as investors’ optimism for a June rate hike rose to its highest level, after the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged but downplayed slower first-quarter economic growth.
Also as far as Europe area after uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the French presidential election eased, following a strong performance by pro-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron in a TV presidential debate against Marine Le Pen ahead of the final vote on Sunday.
So as risk is reduced and dollar's future seems bullish we had this sell-off that it may end or continue a days more given fuel by NFP release tomorrow.
TECHNICALLY
We can see at the chart the two channels,the descending channel since August 2016 and the ascending channel since we broke previous lows at late January of 2017.
History repeats itself as we notice after the double top formed at 2016 we had a 13% decrease at Silver's price at late September and then a bounce back before we continue the down trend.
Now if we look recent price actions something looks familiar and that's because market geometry exists.So if we copy AB and BE and create A'B' AND B'E' we can see that we have the exact same price action.
Having the Fibonacci retracements from August 2016 descending move,we see the price coming up to 61,8% Fibonnaci retracement and being unable to switch the trend to bullish,it continued it's bearish trend.
We can see price bouncing of the top trend line of 2016's descending channel and coming down to this trend line once again while entering a very strong support area and demand zone.
RSI strategy which is well respected by price action indicates oversold levels and possible short-term reversal.
POSSIBLE TRADE WITH P/L RATIO OF 3,55
FIRST TARGET AT 17,5$ WHERE 200EMA AND 38,2% FIB LEVEL EXIST
SECOND TARGET AT 18,5$ WHERE PREVIOUS HIGHS AND 61,8% FIB LEVEL EXIT
STOP LOSS AT 15,6$ UNDER STRONG RESISTANCE AREA
HAPPY TRADING GUYS!
THANKS FOR SUPPORT
Upcoming General Election & Brexit Related Analysis (GBP)See chart for fundamental and technical analysis. I have given a timeline of Brexit events and the reasoning for its effects on the Pound Sterling. The combination of technical analysis and a strong likelihood of a Conservative landslide (Soft Brexit) should see the GBP surge, and hopefully see GBP recover to its pre-Brexit highs.
Oclr EBITDA has doubled since OctDespite bearish price activity, fundamentals should drive OCLR up long term (1yr)
Here's the level to watch with Facebook(FB).The Technicals
As noted in the above chart, FB ended the week in the red despite a great earnings report.
Is this just a blip before the next new high? Possibly. However, I believe these are not attractive levels for initiating a long position.
I will be watching the $110 level on the downside if it ever gets there as a POTENTIAL buy.
The Quarter
Per Yahoo finance, these are FB results.
Adjusted earnings per share: $1.41
Revenue: $8.81 billion
Monthly active users: 1.86 billion
Daily active users: 1.23 billion
% of ad revenue from mobile: 84%
Via Bloomberg, here’s a quick snapshot of what investors were looking for from the social media giant:
Adjusted earnings per share: $1.31
Revenue: $8.5 billion
Monthly active users: 1.84 billion
Daily active users: 1.21 billion
% of ad revenue from mobile: 85%
In % terms, here is how they fared vs expectations.
Adjusted earnings per share: +7%
Revenue: +3.5%
Monthly active users: +1%
Daily active users: +1.6%
% of ad revenue from mobile: -1%
They beat all the metrics save for % of ad revenue from mobile.
They don't break down their % of revenue from whatsapp, instagram, and occulus or at least I could not find it. Safe to say whatsapp and occulus % would be tiny if any and monetizing instagram is still in the early stages.
I will say, I hear more of my friends complaining about the number of ads shown in their facebook news feed. I read somewhere that FB will address this, though I could not find the article.
Facebook and TV
Per Bloomberg-
"That means the next big technology prizefight isn't Facebook versus Google versus Snapchat, but the digital world duking it out against television. All of them have their eyes on the roughly $190 billion spent each year on TV commercials. If Facebook grabs just 3 percent of ad dollars spent on TV in the U.S., it would add more than $2 billion, or about 7 percent, to its annual revenue."
Can we expect to see original content from Facebook in the coming years?
According to Recode-
"Facebook is starting to talk to TV studios and other video producers about licensing shows, with the hope of boosting the social network’s video efforts.
The talks, which include discussions for scripted shows, game shows and sports, are being led by Ricky Van Veen, the College Humor co-founder who joined the company earlier this year."
I get it, people like watching videos. Youtube has pushed into original content. I see the shows often when I open the app, but for some reason, I have never clicked on it. It will be interesting to see how Youtube original content does.
In my mind, I have Netflix, Amazon, and maybe HBO or showtime. That is all my mind handle.
Facebook has the money and the audience, I just wonder if they aren't entering into too many categories?
I get the move to VR, it's a platform, where no dominant player has captured mindshare. Original content is different, everybody is either into it or getting into it. If they are going the original content route, I would not be surprised if they pushed into live sports.
So, what's the trade?
Every investor has different time frames. For me, I am in wait and see mode. Like I noted earlier, I will watching the $110 level if it ever gets there.
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Thanks and have a good weekend.
Caleb