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Dax daily: 15 Jul 2020Yesterday's price action was a great example of the rational behaviour of the market participants. As we mentioned in our analysis yesterday, the zone around 12 592 was important for establishing further price development, with the break outside signifying the continuation in that particular direction. Dax oscillated the entire European session before gaining momentum in the afternoon and we could target our trades to previous day VPOC. That is exactly what happened and Dax closed the day at the fair value with the biggest amount of orders. Important zones Resistance: 12 882 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened the day with an ascending gap and the first morning impulse attempts to close the gap. Considering the fact we have the resistance of 12 882 in near vicinity, we're now eying a lovely scenario of closing the gap as it correlates with the VPOC of Monday and then targeting the retest of resistance at 12 882 and possibly break higher. There are no fundamental releases scheduled for Dax today, but the optimism on the US stock markets dominates the market sentiment across the board, even despite the negative echoes of the US-China dealings. Consider it's the earning season too. Should the price get above 12 882, there is a lot of space ahead of us to continue our long bias in the short to the mid-term horizon.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 14 Jul 2020Yesterday's session opened with an ascending gap. However, from the beginning of the session, sellers proved their dominance as they pushed the price lower all the way through the support of 12 592. Dax even closed the day below this zone but today's open impulse retraced back above. Important zones Resistance: 12 882 Support: 12 592, 12 494 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Today's session hypothesis For today, we've started with a retracement above 12 592 and we have two options on the table. The first one is that Dax will continue higher to correct yesterday's drop or the price will continue in the impulsive bearish momentum that we've seen last evening. In this case, Dax is likely to drop below the support level of 12 494 and a lot of room would open to target another zone down at 12 278. Mind the ZEW Economic Sentiment release today.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jul 2020For yesterday, we expected bulls to attempt for higher levels. The morning session was positive in this sense, but then we saw a rapid sell-off, even below 12 494. This is where the support level functioned nicely but the momentum wasn't that strong co correct the down push. Important zones Resistance: 12 494, 12 592 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis The price opened with a significant descending gap, priced at 12 418. We are now far below 12 494 which changes our lookout from the previous days. As a matter of fact, the drop signifies that bulls are not present in the market or they are not willing to push the price higher under current market circumstances. We now have to re-evaluate the directional bias, based on the signals we spot in the price action. Since Dax opened below the support level, the price can easily continue to lower levels. The zone around 12 278 is the real support area we could target.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 08 Jul 2020Yesterday's session hasn't turned out exactly according to our expectations. Although Dax descended lower to retest our Support zone at 12 592 as we predicted, the price continued lower instead of reversing to the upside. Dax very precisely respected Friday's VPOC in correlation with the Support level at 12 494 and held further sell-offs. Important zones Resistance: 12 592 Support: 12 494 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis The price opened in the very near vicinity of the S/R level at 12 494 with the initial 'fake-out'. It appeared the initial impulsive move took Dax back to the consolidation range of the past weeks, yet it is apparent that it is the range that buyers want to avoid hence retracing the initial drop. We don't have any important macroeconomic events scheduled for today, but tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting could serve as the catalyst to bring some momentum for Dax. The statistical probabilities are also silent for today hence we target the nearest resistance level at 12 595 to either be retested or broken to the upside.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 07 Jul 2020Yesterday's session started optimistically and at one moment, it looked like buyers head straight towards 12 882. But as we know, appearances are deceptive. Sellers stepped in to suppress the bullish attempts and dominated the rest of the session. Bearish traders took the price lower to retest Friday's high, yet failed to close the weekend gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 882 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's session opened with a descending gap. At the time of writing, Dax continues in the gap direction towards 12 592, which is the nearest S/R zone. After some struggles, buyers managed to get the price out of the consolidation range of the previous weeks and we believe these attempts won't be easily halted. Chances are that 12 592 will be an important zone to support the price and a good entry point for buyers. The least we're eyeing is the return to 12 715 and then attempts to target 12 882.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 29 Jun 2020On Friday, we anticipated that Dax will remain in its consolidation range above 12 151, however, sellers found enough strength to break below this zone, keeping the price suppressed. Not only the session was closed at its daily low but the significant volume of orders moved lower as well and this signifies the sellers' dominance. Important zones Resistance: 12 151 Support: 11 829 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Monday's session started with a descending gap, yet the bearish sentiment doesn't fully control the initial trading hour. The price is confidently heading towards the weekend gap closure at the time of writing. For today, we have two important zones marked nearby - 12 151 as the resistance and 11 829 as the support. It is quite possible that we'll see some correction of Friday's drop before bears step in again to target 11 829. Have a good trading week!
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
BTC and ETH PrepSwap-Spot basis on avg currently positiveComparison BTC and ETH pairs between BitMEX, Deribit and FTX Perpetual Swaps vs Coinbase (Spot) price basis. We can observe an on-going basis pattern currently trending positive (trading with premium). Positive basis is leading information towards funding rate becoming positive as well. Positive Funding rates means Longs pay Shorts Longs paying shorts mean market makers will have the incentive to provide liquidity to longs. Even if that means another 30% rally up but crash bellow price point where funding turned positive is strongly possible. These analysis are nuanced as usual but as we keep trading in the range the more stronger is the bearish case if we dont see the flip to the negative side. Basis being positive means that Funding rates will be affected accordingly to the positive side. When price trading with a premium market makers have the incentive to provide liquidity to longs by being short because they earn the funding. This is particular important at top of uptrend rallies where they can "engineer" another (fomo) rally or an upthrust while knowing that dump is eminent because of the path of least resistance. This can also be used to artificually surpress price moving too much up. Likewise they keep providing strong liquidity to shorts while ensuring that price wont move much and this way allowing alts to have their rally vs btc and eth. So either this is an effort to keep price still trading in the range while allowing alts to run OR it's the beggining of another significant drop in BTC and ETH price.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by D7R
2
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2020As we predicted yesterday, Dax made its way outside of the consolidation range when it broke out of the resistance at 12 494. Just as we wrote, this breakout was a clear signal to retest another S/R level in the row and that is exactly what happened. Dax continued to hit the resistance at 12 595 where the price bounced back down and returned to the range of the past week. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's price action gave us a signal that there is a mood in the markets and Dax has tendencies to continue higher. Considering that yesterday's breakout led to a retest of another S/R zone, we can understand this as the confirmation of the sentiment continuation probability. The major US indices futures also play in our favour as they gain in the morning trading hours and the correlation with Dax is often quite likely.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 22 Jun 2020The last session of the past week turned out well for sellers. They managed to get down to a support level at 12 151 where we saw a slight correction before Dax broke to the downside and closed the week lower at 12 112. Important zones Resistance: 12 151 Support: 11 829 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis After a long time, today's session opened without a weekend gap. Dax hasn't moved anywhere yet to determine the initial directional push. Following Friday's session outcome, we slightly favour bears now. Their target could now be the previous fair value from 15 Jun, laying at 11 829. Our upper S/R zone will certainly be an interesting one as it could be a decisive factor between buyers and sellers. Should the price return back above, Dax would trade in the same consolidation range where it was last week.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 19 Jun 2020Thursday's session was quite interesting. We anticipated that Dax was likely to trade in its range and the resistance at 12 494 really served to just reject the upward price move. It is apparent this S/R zone is valid and those who had limit orders around this level can pride themselves with nice profits. Dax then moved to the middle of the range and we start fresh from the same levels, again. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Friday's session starts near the previous day and the first trading hour is dominated by buyers. It seems that bulls are likely to target 12 494 yet again and we stick to our yesterday's bias. We anticipate the retest and/or breakout of the nearest S/R zones and we incline more towards 12 494's side. If buyers don't want to go above there, the support at 12 151 isn't much stronger.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 18 Jun 2020We were unsure about the price development yesterday as no hints were present. We clearly defined the range of 12 151 - 12 494 and the price stayed there all day long. The session was a slow one with the range being relatively narrow. Dax was moving sideways just to close the day near break even. Our zones remain unchanged. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:30 CEST - SNB Policy Rate + Statement Today's session hypothesis Dax opens the day with a small descending gap. We anticipate the retest of yesterday's close and trading in the defined range. The nearest S/R zones will play a major role and the price action around either of these will be a decisive factor for further price estimation. The breakout will be a major focus for us. We have a day filled with macroeconomic events so stay alert.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 17 Jun 2020Yesterday's session started well in line with the auction market theory. The price first dropped to retest our support at 12 151 and bounced back up to continue higher, even above the open. Buyers lost momentum mid-day and Dax dropped sharply to retest the same support once again. The session then closed nearly break even. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis We'll disappoint all traders who expect a clear direction analysis today. The price hasn't eventually gone anywhere yesterday and is currently in the middle of two important S/R zones. We don't have any indications or signals about the direction, yet we incline more to the bullish side. The retest of 12 494 is expected in the short to the mid-term horizon. Contrary, should 12 151 be broken to the downside, space opens for more sell-offs.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 Jun 2020Yesterday's session showed us very clearly that buyers don't give out their gains of the past month. Dax was ascending since the open, without any pullback or correction. The price sliced through the 11 734 S/R zone without any sign of slowing down and closed the day up at 12 084 near its daily high. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Today's session hypothesis Against all odds, we haven't witnessed the low volatility as expected. The gap today suggests the volatility is likely to stay in the markets today as well. Dax opened the day with an ascending gap, priced at 12 288. The price is now above the S/R zone of 12 151, which is now being eyed as the most important level for bullish traders. We anticipate a pullback towards this area where buyers are likely to show their strength. If there is no will to get to 12 151, the resistance of our interest lays at 12 494 which is a very nice target to be retested.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 Jun 2020The only thing certain on Friday were our S/R zones. Have a look at how our resistance at 12 151 functioned perfectly. Dax went to retest this level also as it was the VPOC of previous session and the price exemplarily bounced away to offer enough opportunities for profitable trades. Besides this, the session hasn't really presented us with any more interesting trading opportunities. Important zones Resistance: 11 734 Support: 11 412 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we cannot use our Statistical application as the weekend gap is beyond standards. The gap being sized 393 points has minimum historical prints. Yes, Dax truly surprised us when this week opened with a huge descending gap below the 11 734 S/R zone. The retest and closure of the gap in today's session are the least probable. Taking this situation into account, further descend towards 11 412 is more likely or might also see consolidation around 11 734.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 12 Jun 2020We mentioned it in our analysis yesterday that previous days signalled a bearish correction and could further support sellers. This turned out valid and Dax headed south. The price even broke the support at 12 151 and almost reached the next support at 11 734. Important zones Resistance: 12 151 Support: 11 734 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened the day with 166 points gap, correcting portion of yesterday's fall. We don't plan to trade the gap situation. The price is midway through yesterday's session and it doesn't provide good hints now. We are not fully clear about the direction, S/R zones are defined so we'll be eying either of those, depending on the initial momentum. Global Indices, including Dax, feared a second wave of pandemic yesterday and chances are that this market mood could further play a role in the upcoming days.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 11 Jun 2020Yesterday's session started with another sell-off and market participants closed the gap and retested the support at 12 494. The price then bounced back up but buyers were not strong enough to take Dax higher. The session closed at its daily low, right at the support zone of 12 494. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The gap is sized 217 points with low closing probability Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opens the session with 217 points sized descending gap. It is apparent that yesterday's bearish day sparked the downside momentum, propelled by the FOMC. After two weeks of growth, it is now clear the bullish trend ended. Dax is now priced 12 300 and the support of 12 151 is in the near vicinity and this is the first interesting S/R zone to take into account. As the resistance, we can mark the 12494 zone which is yesterday's support and the closing price of the session. The statistical probability of retesting this area today is low, yet this scenario can actually happen.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jun 2020A couple of times already, we mentioned that a correction is inevitable. That's exactly what we saw yesterday and our uptrend continuation bias along with the statistical probability of breaking previous day's High hadn't happened. Dax reacted with the sell-off right after the open and in correlation with the risk-off sentiment across the board. The downfall was held by the support level at 12 494 and the price was just slowly correcting its fall for the rest of the day. Important zones Resistance: 12 882 Support: 12 592, 12 494 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 20:00 CEST - Fed Rate + FOMC Statement 20:30 CEST - FOMC Press Conference Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's drop was caused by the risk-off sentiment and profit-taking after long runs of global Indices. It was commodity currencies and Indices that were weakening, while the safe-haven currencies gained considerably. Overnight, Dax slightly corrected its drop as the ascending gap gives us a signal to retest previous days' VPOC. The price is in the middle of the range between the support of 12 494 and the resistance of 12 882 and we now need to monitor the price action impulses to further establish directional bias. However, we incline to buyer's favour in the short-term horizon.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Jun 2020Yesterday's price action has, again, brought great profiting opportunities and Dax added another day to its bullish uptrend, even though the daily range was relatively standard. Right with the open of the European session, the price retested VPOC from Friday and continued consistently towards our resistance of 12 882 where it exemplarily bounced back lower and we were presented with another long entry opportunity on the pullback, below Friday's fair value. Dax eventually broke the resistance and closed at it's high at 12 934. Important zones Resistance: 13 119 Support: 12 592, 12 882 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of yesterday's High breakout is 90% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax has opened the day in the near vicinity of the 12 882 S/R zone. We see good chances right at the beginning of the session, especially for closing the gap towards yesterday's close and also retesting this value with the probable scenario of bullish continuation. The Statistical application also favours this thesis as the indication is for a 90% probability of yesterday's High breakout. We don't have any fundamental releases scheduled for the day hence we stick with our hypothesis uptrend continuation, best on pullbacks until we see some clear signs of a correction.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Funding to Price relationship looks bullish.We see below the average future funding rate, which consists of Bitmex, Bybit, etc. For logical reasons, you can see a connection between the two curves. The smart thing is that you can see a flattening of the negative range at the current funding rate. If you look into the past, you can see that this is a very bullish sign. It looks like we have reached the funding bottom and can look forward to positive courses. The scale is of course unpredictable. However, I am assuming a violent pump in the next few weeks, which relates to halving. Well, speculate on good. (:
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by PassiCoin