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Today's 100B convertible announcement confirms downtrendPre-Market announcement of US$100M Short-Term Convertible. Unfortunately, this confirms the assumptions I made in my latest video on my YT channel "DONGXii" > NIO is cash strapped and not able to close a big financing round. > 1B funding rumours with GAC will not materialise (for now). > Strategy is to finance operations through creating cash flow by selling cars, which I find very dangerous considering NIO reported dramatically lower average selling prices (ASP), Q1 is usually the weakest quarter for all automotive OEM in terms of sales, impact of corona virus. > Issuing bond after bond with goal of securing larger sum at terms accepted by management including CEO Li Bin. > 🔥 Playing with fire: 100M USD in convertible funding. 200M+ USD burn rate. My prediction is that NIO will be stuck in downward channel and will only find support in the 3 USD area. If by then a real funding round of around 1B is finally announced and secured, it may break out again opening a bullish reversal. Otherwise NIO could even break below 3USD. You can see my video I posted on my DONGXii YT channel to get the detailed reasons on the funding situation. I was all correct to suggest that NIO tries to fund for now by going bond by bond. This is very dangerous and should be recognised by the market! Meanwhile I stay neutral on the stock.
NYSE:NIO
by DONGXii_com
Rope in More Shorts Then Pump It LONG BTCUSD SOONI'm sensing a lot of people throwing in the towel on the bull run. The market tends to burn the crowds so I think they will suppress prices for a bit to rope in as many shorts as possible then pump it while everyone is too afraid to buy. Funding shows that the bulls have become more tired each time price ascended since this summer, yet we've really not seen a bearish switch in sentiment. I would think around 7k is the floor, yet I don't think price goes higher until sentiment becomes more bearish. So I think the game plan is to buy dips and take quick profits until sentiment becomes very bearish, and that's when long positions might be able to be held a bit.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jamiecassels
Dax daily: 16 Oct 2019We saw another bullish happiness for Dax. After the initial long, buyers took a lunch break and the price resumed its climb later in the afternoon session. The resistance zone at 12 598 was broken and functioned as a support. Dax formed a new high of the recent past weeks but didn't hold the throne for long. The price then closed the day at 12 624. Important zones Resistance: 12 676 Support: 12 598 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened with a descending gap today. Before we finished writing this analysis, the gap has closed quickly. Buyers respected the support zone at 12 598. If the current bullish sentiment holds up, the retest of yesterday's high at 12 676 is very likely. That level is now an important resistance zone and should it be broken, we see another target at 12 730 which is the August high. Dax traders seem to be optimistic also due to the favourable Brexit echoes we hear recently. On the other hand, if the market mood changes, we are looking at a decline towards 12 483.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 02 Sep 2019 Welcome to this first analysis of the month of September. Friday's session started by a relatively fast retest of our resistance zone at 11 899, which hasn't even slowed down the price momentum. The uptrend was seen until 15:00 when Dax corrected the bullish move by descending lower to retest the newly formed support at 11 899 which was our valid resistance at the beginning of the session. Dax closed in its upper range. Important zones Resistance: 12 037 Support: 11 868, 11 771 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Canada & USA - national holiday Today's session hypothesis Today's afternoon session might be slower than usual due to public holiday in the US and Canada. Morning session might be influenced by the series of PMI reports from the Eurozone. We also have an increased statistical probability for breaking Friday's high. We could see buyers jumping in at around 11 868 and if that scenario turns valid and the high will be broken, sellers are likely to correct the upside move at 12 037. Considering the fact we also have an increased probability of closing inside Friday's range, it is logical to focus our targets back into the range should the price get above or below the high/low from Friday.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 30 Aug 2019 We welcome you to this last Dax analysis of the week, month and summer holiday. Thursday's session appeared quite innocent in the first hour of trading. At 9 am, Dax shot firmly upwards and this momentum lasted till noon. At around 4:30 pm, Dax fell lower by some 90 points just to correct this volatile spike even above the initial fall. Important zones Resistance: 11 899 Support: 11 774, 11 700 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis It appears today we could finally close the resistance at 11 899 where we hope to find some sellers at the first retest. If we target the first one lower, buyers could be seen at 11 774 or even lower at 11 700. Should the price really drop down to 11 700, all our hypothesis for a bullish move turn invalid as that level is now distanced some 150 points away.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 29 Aug 2019 Yesterday's session drew a nice 'V' shape. The price started to fall towards the support level of 11 561 right from the beginning of the session and this was the area where price marked its intraday low and bounced back upwards. The first support zone laying at 11 678 had little effect. The statistical probability about closing inside the previous day range was also fulfilled. Important zones Resistance: 11 772 Support: 11 608, trendline Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 08:45 - 09:55 CEST - various Eurozone reports - refer to the Economic calendar Today's session hypothesis For today's price estimation, we need to monitor the Price Action around the slightly consolidated area formed around yesterday's close. If Dax goes above this zone, it is likely we see a retest of 11 772 and the return back to the range zone of the past few days. Contrary, should bears prove their presence, we can see the retest of our support level and the trendline around 11 600 which could serve as an interesting area for some bullish correction.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 26 Aug 2019 Friday's session started relatively innocent. As per our expectations, Dax descended to hit our support zone of 11 759 and closed the gap. We also saw buyers attempting to regain control before the storm hit the markets. News had it that China retaliated on the US import taxes and to no surprise, Trump's swift reaction on Twitter caused even more havoc when he lifted the existing tariffs even more (including services industry) and ordered american companies to withdraw from China. Dax bears started to jump out of the window and retested the subject S/R zone after the initial plunge. Next bearish target was the following support at 11 560 which slowed down the price for a few hours just to drop even lower to close the week at 11 532. Important zones Resistance: 11 645, 11 707, 11 611 Support: 11 404 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 10:00 CEST - EUR - German Ifo Business Climate All-day - G7 Meeting in France Today's session hypothesis For today, we estimate to see some correction of Friday's downfall. Ideally, the price could reach 11 611 - 11 645 levels which could work well for sellers to take the price towards the support around 11 404. Beware of today's news, especially some G7 Meeting after-tremors.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 23 Aug 2019 Our yesterday's analysis turned out absolutely successful. Dax bounced from our mentioned trendline, broken Wednesday'shigh and then returned to Wednesday's range, which had a statistical probability of 77%. Today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 899 Support: 11 759 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases USA - Jackson Hole Symposium Today's session hypothesis We could see some sellers from the beginning of the session taking Dax towards the support zone of 11 759 and see the correction towards 11 899 which is just a stone throw away. Before we break yesterday's high and iIf 11 759 doesn't hold the price, then the bearish target is at 11 630.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 22 Aug 2019 Unfortunately, yesterday's session didn't go according to our expectations. We've had clues for a bearish move and breakout of the previous day low, but Dax proved otherwise. The price was trending upwards with a strong momentum right from the beginning of the session and the resistance at 11 691 played no role too. Dax slowed down later in the afternoon, yet closed in the upper band of its range. Today we open with a descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 779 Support: 11 667, trend line zone Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs 13:30 CEST - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts Today's session hypothesis Currently, the price descends towards the support level of 11 729 and we hope to find buyers there and head towards the closure of the gap. Up at the resistance zone of 11 779 there might be some bearish correction but eventually, bulls are likely to prevail to retest yesterday's high. If that happens, sellers are likely to return back to the range to close inside - this thesis has a statistical probability of 77%.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 21 Aug 2019 Tuesday's session was a bit odd from our point of view. Dax initially descended to our support at 11 646, but rather than bullish correction we hoped for, price action rather slowed down. Dax then closed near it's intraday low and today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 691 Support: 11 560 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Considering the very high probability for breaking yesterday's low, then all our short trades have a clear target. If yesterday's low gets broken, we can estimate a faster move towards 11 560 which is a really nice support level. Sellers are likely to step in around 11 691. Should Dax break yesterday's high, then the short hypothesis becomes invalid as the statistics suggest the breakout of both swings is as low as 7% only.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 20 Aug 2019 Monday's session turned out as per our expectations. Although there was no short to capitalize on, one of our hypothesis was the significance of trend-line to support bullish traders. The resistance at 11 723 slowed down the price incline but no big short correction was seen. Today we open with a small ascending gap, which has a 60% probability of closing. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 11 723 Support: 11 646 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing outside of yesterday's range is 71% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we again expect the initial drop towards 11 646 where we hope to find buyers and finally start heading towards 11 899. If Dax goes below yesterday's low, it is likely we see a faster continuation towards 11 560 which might be another attractive zone for bull traders. If bullish momentum prevails right from the beginning of the session, then the first logical target is the high swing at 11 829 and then 11 899.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 19 Aug 2019 Friday's session was relatively difficult to trade. It looked like the price might go down a few times, but bulls were stronger and took the price towards our resistance at 11 606. In the end, the gap between the sessions wasn't closed and the trendline wasn't even relevant. For today, we open with yet another ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 11 723 Support: 11 404, trend-line, 11 560 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis We estimate a short correction towards Friday's close at 11 560 where bulls are likely to take over and take the price to retest the 11 723. The main target for this week lays at 11 899. If Dax goes well below 11 560, we are likely to see a slow down of Price Action and closing inside Friday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 Aug 2019 Thursday's session turned as expected. Dax broke the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 96%. Sellers were dominant right from the beginning and proved their strengths yet before 11 629 so the profit potential wasn't that exciting. Dax dropped some 300 points just to almost fully correct this drop later in the day. Thursday was a rollercoaster day and really hard to trade. Important zones Resistance: 11 606 Support: 11 404, trend-line Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we'd like to see a drop towards yesterday's close and find some buyers there. Considering the Price Action, we see indications of yesterday's high. Yesterday's low looks pretty safe though. The upside correction could happen at 11 606.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 Aug 2019 Our market analysis didn't go well yesterday. We've had clues for the uptrend continuation and breaking of Tuesday's high. Instead of that, Dax gave us the complete opposite and formed a big daily sell-off. Today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 11 629 Support: NIL Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis We anticipate the bullish correction until yesterday's mid-range. The resistance level of 11 629 or even lower could be a good zone for sellers to target yesterday's low, which has a really high statistical probability. Even though we have such a powerful hint for today's price direction, it is important to remember that markets might always behave erratically and the statistic might not be fulfilled.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 14 Aug 2019 Dax started the day with the expected drop and breaking the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 83%. There was a sudden price spike after 15:30 when Dax shot higher some 300 points based on Trump's tweets. After the dust settled, Dax slowed down and hasn't really gone anywhere for the rest of the session. Today's gap has already been closed. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 12 031 Support: 11 660 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Wednesday's session could start with the correction of yesterday's move. Buyers are likely to enter around the support level of 11 660 and attempt to take the price higher towards 11 899 and close this gap finally. We also have 87% statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high or low, but considering the fact that low is distanced some 230 points and the normal daily range is 110 - 160 points, it makes sense to anticipate a breakout of yesterday's high.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Aug 2019 The session yesterday started with an ascending gap which was closed yet in the morning trading hours. Sellers took Dax to retest the support level at 11 716 where we saw a power shift and buyers regained control of the further price development. The session was closed at 11 823. Important zones Resistance: 11 901 Support: 11 716 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Another gap opening but with a different situation today. It was quite probable yesterday that the gap was to be closed, just as we highlighted. Price opened above previous day's range and gap was at a strong S/R zone which was likely to be retested. Today we open in the middle of yesterday's session and it's not clearly defined who has the advantage. The statistical application indicates a 50% probability which is another undecisive information for a price estimate. We are left to wait for the price action and follow the mood of the market. We estimate today's trading ranging between 11 716 and 11 901.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 08 Aug 2019 Yesterday's session didn't offer any excitement exactly as we thought. What is important is that our resistance level at 11 702 functioned pretty well. Dax also broke neither low nor high of previous day range and this was corresponding with a very low statistical probability given by our application. Today we open with a significant ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 901 Support: 11 716 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Does it look like another calm session? It seems to be, yet it's important to bear in mind that markets are always unpredictable and anything can happen. We could see the initial move to the downside to retest yesterday's close and close the gap too. Buyers might appear around 11 716 and lift the price towards 11 901. Should Dax descend below 11 716, we might see a slow down of the price action and close inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 07 Aug 2019 Yesterday's session was a bit odd. Dax behaved lazily all day long and has broken neither low or high of the previous day. The support level at 11 615 hasn't functioned either. The price opened with a small descending gap today which is already closed by the time we write this. Important zones Resistance: 11 702, 11 845, 11 899, 12 031 Support: NIL Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax has slowed down significantly after a big drop from 25 July. In the ideal scenario, we could see a correction towards 12 031 in the upcoming days with smaller corrections at the mentioned resistance levels. For today, we don't have any drivers or significant clues for the market direction estimation. There is a near resistance at 11 702 which could trigger some action of sellers. Besides, we can expect a lazier price action once again.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 06 Aug 2019 Monday's session had an expected development. We first saw buyers taking the price slightly up, yet not able to retest the 11 823 level. Sellers took over and pushed Dax to the support zone of 11 657. It took some time for this to be broken to the downwards and bears dominated the intraday session until the close. Important zones Resistance: 12 031, 11 899, 11 8845 Support: 11 615 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's price opens with an ascending gap which could be closed and adequately find buyers at 11 615. We can then target our trades to retest yesterday's high and retest of the resistance zone of 11 845 - 11 899. If there are no significant buying pressures around 11 615, it is more likely that yesterday's low will be broken. As soon as that happens, buyers could shift things around to correct the fall and Dax would likely to oscillate and close inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 05 Aug 2019 Friday's session started with a slight downward movement which prevailed for the whole intraday session. We've had a bearish based bias and our hypothesis played out as expected. Today we open with a really big descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 031, 11 899, 11 823 Support: 11 657 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 16:00 CEST - USA - ISM Non-Manufacturing Today's session hypothesis Today we open with a 170 points sized gap which equals the range of a volatile day session. There was a row of really nice S/R levels formed. The first zone of our interest is the resistance at 11 823 which could be retested today. If sellers aren't strong enough, Dax could head towards 11 899 and close the gap. Buyers might appear around 11 657.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 01 Aug 2019 And so August is here. Yesterday's price action was dominated by FOMC. Dax first closed the gap, found some buyers and then went idle. After the FOMC came out, the 83% statistical probability of breaking the previous day low was successfully fulfilled. The price closed the gap this morning right after the open. Important zones Resistance: 12 283 Support: 12 073 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs 13:00 CEST - United Kingdom - Official Bank Rate, Statement, Votes & Inflation report. All of these could influence DAX as well. Today's session hypothesis Most of the time, days following the FOMC are relatively calmer. Moreover, it's a summer holiday season. We have a weaker support zone near the current price, laying at 12 073. That level could be used by buyers. From the price action perspective, it is difficult to estimate today's direction development. Talking about the probabilities, we have 80% for breaking yesterday's high or low and then there is a statistical chance of 78% that Dax might close inside yesterday's range. Taking this into account, it is rather wise to target our trades back into range should the high/low be broken.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO